Adecoagro Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
March 15, 2024

There are 7 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for waiting. At this time, we would like to welcome everyone to Adecoagro's Q4 2023 results conference call. Today with us, we have Mr. Mariano Bosch, CEO Mr. Emilio Nyaco, CFO Mr.

Operator

Renato Junqueria Pereira, Sugar, Ethanol and Energy VP and Mrs. Victoria Cabello, Investor Relations Officer. We would like to inform you that this event is being recorded and all participants will be in a listen only mode during the Company's presentation. After the Company's remarks are completed, there will be a question and answer section. At that time, further instructions will be given.

Operator

Before proceeding, let me mention that forward looking statements are based on the beliefs and assumptions of Adecoagro's management and on information currently available to the company. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions because they relate to future events and therefore depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. Investors should understand that general economic conditions, industry conditions and other operating factors could also affect the future results of Adecoagro and could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in such forward looking statements. Now, I'll turn the conference over to Mr. Mariano Bosch, CEO.

Operator

Mr. Bosch, you may begin your conference.

Speaker 1

Good morning, and thank you for joining Adecoagro's 2023 4th quarter results conference. We are presenting all time records in gross sales, adjusted EBITDA and net cash from operations. Despite having experienced the worst drought in Argentina's history, these accomplishments were possible because of the investment made through the years to grow our production capability, strengthen our asset base and teams. The synergies achieved across all our businesses, our continuous focus on efficiency and being the low cost producer our geographic and product diversification our flexibility to shift across markets and products. These results made us reduce our net debt by more than $150,000,000 while we continued investing in growth projects with attractive IRRs and also distributing to shareholders via dividends and buybacks.

Speaker 1

Based on the results presented and according to our distribution policy, this year we will distribute at least $70,000,000 a new record for the Company. Some brief comments on ESG. As food and renewable energy producers, taking care of the natural resources and the environment is in our DNA. Throughout the years, we have developed sustainable production models in each of the places where we operate. We expect to achieve our newly disclosed 2,030 decarbonization targets by reinforcing these models and investing in new technologies with attractive financial returns, like the biomethan.

Speaker 1

In Brazil, our Angelica mill has recently received the CORSA certification, which guarantees that our ethanol can be used for sustainable aviation fuel production, a potential new market for our ethanol production. In our dairy segment, our second bio digester is injecting renewable electricity to the local grid by using cow manure as an input. This is a clear example of how circular economy model works. From this manure, we also produce biofertilizer, which is then used in our crop farms and later produced cow feed. The ESG awards received during the year are another proof of the work and communication of our best practices.

Speaker 1

Now looking ahead, we are very enthusiastic about the outlook of all our operating segments. Normal weather conditions in Argentina and Uruguay have favored the planting and development of over 270,000 hectares of grains and rice. In the case of crops, yields are being defined and we feel confident that production will go back to normal levels, consequently showing a significant recovery in adjusted EBITDA in 2024. Furthermore, our rice mills in Argentina and Uruguay are continuously processing and turning our rice production into higher value added products for our clients distributed all over the world. Having in place a fully integrated business model enables us to offer high quality rice at attractive prices.

Speaker 1

In the meanwhile, in Brazil, we are crushing cane and producing sugar, thanks to our continuous harvest model. And we foresee to continue increasing our milling compared to the 2023 record crashing, assuming weather evolving normally. To conclude, I want to thank our teams for their hard work and effort. Although we had a difficult start to the year, we achieved these results and the outlook remains very positive. Thank you to our shareholders for your continued support.

Speaker 1

Now I will let Emilio walk you through the numbers of the quarter.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Mariano. Good morning, everyone. Let's start on Page 4 with a summary of our consolidated financial results. Gross sales totaled $400,000,000 during the 4th quarter, 5% higher year over year, while adjusted EBITDA reached $96,000,000 9 percent down versus the same period of last year. On an annual basis, gross sales amounted to $1,400,000,000 and adjusted EBITDA was $477,000,000 making a 7% and 10% increase, respectively, versus the prior year as well as all time records for the company.

Speaker 2

These results were mostly explained by an outperformance of the sugar, ethanol and energy business on great hurricane productivity, which enabled us to increase our sugar production and execute sales at solid prices. Results were also positively impact by solid returns from our rice segment on higher average selling prices and the sale of a farm in September. This, in turn, fully offset the decline reported in the crops production, explained by the effects of an unprecedented drought event and higher costs in dollars. Now please turn to Slide 5. As you can see on the upper right chart, we generated $176,000,000 of net cash from operations in 2023, 24% higher than the prior year.

Speaker 2

The increase in cash generation was driven by an outstanding operational performance. Investments carried out throughout the past years across all our operations, along with an action plan, which aim to reduce expenses and generate savings, among other initiatives, have paid off. Regarding our production figures, in the bottom right chart, we can see that crushing volumes in our sugar, ethanol and energy business were up 19% versus 2022. Higher crushing translates into higher production volume, increasing sales and diluting costs. This was mostly possible, thanks to the implementation of innovative agricultural techniques such as pre sprouted seeding, which enabled us to reproduce sugarcane varieties that have better growth development in our region, both in yields and TRS content.

Speaker 2

On the other hand, total production in our Farming division reported a 29% year over year reduction, fully explained by the reduction in yields and planted area in our crop segment because of La Nina weather event. Let's move to Slide 7 with the operational performance of our Sugar, Ethanol and Energy business. During the Q4, crushing volume reached 2,900,000 tons, 7% lower versus the prior year due to higher rainfalls received compared to the same period of last year. Regarding productivity, yields reached 82 tons per hectare whereas TRS content amounted to 127 kilograms per tonne. In terms of mix, we diverted as much as 52% of our TRS to sugar, in line with our strategy to maximize production of the product with the highest marginal contribution.

Speaker 2

Within our ethanol production, 72% was hydrous, as demand for this type of ethanol had been significantly increasing and gaining market share, offering the better margin. On a full year basis, crushing volume reached 12,500,000 tons, 19% higher year over year and a record for our mills. This is mostly explained by a significant improvement in agricultural productivity indicators, including a 20% year over year increase in yields to 80 tonnes per hectare as well as to greater sugarcane availability. As commented before, production mix stood at 52% sugar and 48% ethanol. This resulted in a sugar production of 806,000 tonnes in 2023, making a new record for our mills as well as a year over year increase of over 300,000 tonnes.

Speaker 2

As shown in the bottom right chart, while we maximized sugar production during the whole year to profit from the rally in global sugar prices, last year, we maximized ethanol during the 1st semester and switched to sugar during the second half as ethanol prices decrease. This proves the high degree of flexibility of our mills. Let's please turn to Slide 8, where we describe our sales conducted throughout the year. Net sales amounted to $229,000,000 during the quarter $700,000,000 on a year over year basis, making a 16% increase compared to the previous year in both cases. This was driven by higher sugar sales on higher production and prices, which fully offset the overall reduction in ethanol sales.

Speaker 2

As you can see on the top left chart, selling volumes of sugar amounted to 796,000 tons during the full year as our mix decision favored sugar production capture the significant price premium over ethanol. Consequently, our average selling price increased 24% versus the prior year. In the case of ethanol, we made the commercial decision to reduce sales and build stocks as prices decreased, anticipating high supply levels. Year over year sales comparison is only indicative since we run a completely opposite strategy during 2022, maximizing ethanol production, taking advantage of very attractive prices. That being said, during 2023, the export market opened a window of opportunity and we sold 54,000 cubic meters at an average price of $6.37 per cubic meter.

Speaker 2

This is so since we have the necessary certifications and industry capacity to meet product specifications. On an accumulated basis, energy selling volumes increased 18% compared to the prior year, but the average selling price decreased by 9% due to lower energy spot prices. Regarding Cambro credits, we sold over 440,000 sebajos during the year, amounting to $8,000,000 in sales, Despite representing an 8% year over year increase in the selling price, the decline in volumes sold is explained by lower volumes of sebios issued on lower ethanol sales. On the following slide, we explain our cash cost. Total cash cost reflects on a cash basis how much it costs to produce 1 pound of sugar and ethanol in sugar equivalent.

Speaker 2

On a per unit basis, our cash cost amounted to $0.139 per pound of sugar equivalent, 6% higher than in the prior year. This is mainly explained by, 1st, a 20% year over year increase in SG and A expenses on account of higher freight costs due to our commercial decision to produce more sugar and profit from higher relative prices. And second, maintenance CapEx was 5% higher than in 2022 due to the appreciation of the Brazilian real as well as a higher renewal area and planting costs versus the prior year. However, note that we were able to better dilute our production costs, thanks to the year over year increase in milling volumes, diminishing the increase in total cash cost. All of our efforts are devoted to further enhanced efficiencies to continue reducing it, As we continue ramping up operations in our cluster, cash cost will resume its downward trend.

Speaker 2

Please go to Page 10, where we would like to present the financial performance of the Sugar, Ethanol and Energy business. Adjusted EBITDA amounted to $87,000,000 during the Q4, 14% lower than the same period of last year. Despite the increase in net sales and the gains reported in the mark to market of our commodity hedge position, lower adjusted EBITDA generation was driven by a year over year loss in the mark to market of our biological assets. On a full year basis, adjusted EBITDA reached $396,000,000 presenting a 6% increase versus last year and a new record for this business unit, mostly explained by the increase in net sales. Finally, to conclude with the Sugar, Ethanol and Energy business, please turn to Slide 11 where we would like to briefly talk about the current outlook.

Speaker 2

We have entered 2024 with good sugarcane availability and we are currently one of the few players in Brazil crushing and producing sugar. Being able to crush year round even during the traditional in the harvest period, is one of our main competitive advantages. Assuming weather going normal, we expect to increase our crushing volume versus 2023, as we have sufficient sugarcane availability to use our industrial capacity. This, in turn, will result in a reduction in unitary costs due to better dilution of feed costs, as mentioned before. From a commercial point of view, sugar prices continue to be supported by strong fundamentals.

Speaker 2

We are in an excellent position to profit from this scenario as we have 53% of our expected 2024 sugar production still damaged. In the case of ethanol, parity at the pump currently stands at low 60 percent, pressured by greater inventory levels in Brazil, even though demand has significantly switched to this type of fuel. We believe ethanol prices have room to increase since less ethanol is expected to be produced during 2024 2025 harvest, explained by less gain being crushed in Brazil on account of drier weather and our players still maximizing sugar production given its attractive premium. Now we would like to move on to the Farming business. Please go to Slide 13.

Speaker 2

For the new campaign that we are currently engaged in, we have completed planting activities in 279,000 hectares with a favorable weather outlook. This represents a 5% increase in planted area compared to the previous campaign. In this regard, we'd like to mention that weather in South America has shifted to El Nino after 3 consecutive years of dry weather. Rains registered throughout summertime allowed for an improvement in soil moisture and a recovery of water reservoirs in all of our productive regions. As of today, most of our crops are undergoing its yield definition phase, so the evolution of weather during the upcoming weeks will be key.

Speaker 2

We expect a full recovery in our crops production in 2024, while for our rice segment, we are forecasting better yields due to the full recovery in water reservoirs. On the following Page 14, we present the financial performance of our Farming business. Adjusted EBITDA for the Farming business totaled $14,000,000 in the quarter, making a 34% year over year increase, while on an annual basis reached €103,000,000 25 percent higher than the previous year. Full year results increase was mainly explained by an outperformance from our rice division, coupled with the sale of El Medillano Farm, which in turn fully offset the weak performance of our crops and dairy segments. Before going into the results of each operating segment, I would like to comment that effective for our year ended 2023, we have modified our internal reporting to refine the way we view our farming business and its interaction with the land transformation and cattle activities embedded within such operations.

Speaker 2

Previously, we reviewed the results of our land transformation strategy as a separate activity upon disposition of transformed farmlands and or other rural properties. As from the Q4 of 2023, we started allocating any profit from disposition of farmland, or a Bargain purchase gain, as part of the farming activity where such farming belongs. Adjusted EBITDA for our Crops segment amounted to a negative of $304,000 during the Q4, while on an annual basis reached $27,000,000 The latest figure reflects the sale of Elmeriano farm conducted in September 2023, we generated an adjusted EBITDA of $30,000,000 previously booked in the Land Transformation sector. Crops production on a stand alone basis that is before the sale of the farm concluded in a breakeven adjusted EBITDA for both the quarter and full year results as expected. Results were mainly impacted by the reduction in yields coupled with a genuine increase in cost in dollar terms.

Speaker 2

Adjusted EBITDA in our Rice segment was $8,000,000 during the 4th quarter $48,000,000 on an accumulated basis. The increase in both cases was driven by higher average selling prices due to a better mix of higher added value products and higher global prices, which in turn fully offset the reduction in yields and the increasing costs in dollar terms. Moving on to the dairy segment, adjusted EBITDA totaled $6,000,000 25 percent lower than the prior year while on a full year basis it stood at $28,000,000 making a 9% year over year reduction. Lower crop output increased corn silage prices which is our main cow fee driving the year over year decline in our dairy segment. However, cow productivity reached record levels and we leveraged from our industrial flexibility to continue producing the product with the highest marginal contribution.

Speaker 2

Let's now turn to Page 16 where we would like to present our capital allocation strategy. According to our distribution policy, we are committed to a minimum distribution of 40% of the cash generated during the previous year via a combination of cash dividends and share repurchase. Throughout 2023, we distributed $61,000,000 or 43% of the net cash from operations generated in 2022. This was executed via cash dividends in the amount of $35,000,000 coupled with a repurchase of $26,000,000 in shares. In 2023, we generated $176,000,000 of net cash from operations.

Speaker 2

Consequently, our minimum distribution amounts to $70,000,000 during 20.24. Pending the approval the Annual General Meeting, cash dividends will amount of $35,000,000 to be paid in 2 installments of $17,500,000 each. Additionally, year to date, we have already repurchased $18,000,000 in shares which represents approximately 1.7% of the company's equity. Please turn to Slide 17 for a broader view of our debt position. Net debt amounted to $503,000,000 making a 26% decrease compared to the same period of last year and a 29% reduction quarter over quarter.

Speaker 2

This was explained by a significant reduction in the gross debt position mainly in our Farming business, thanks to very good operational results and the company's financial strategy carried out throughout the year that enabled us to take advantage of opportunities in Argentina's financial market and benefit from the sharp depreciation of the Argentine peso. As shown in our financial figures, the reduction in our net debt position was done without disattending our distribution policy and growth projects. As of December 31, 2023, our liquidity ratio reached 2.8x, showing the company's full capacity to repay shortened debt with its cash balances, whereas our net leverage ratio was 1.1x, 0.5x down compared to the previous year. On the following slide, we explain our CapEx projects. 27% of total investments consisted of expansion projects.

Speaker 2

In Brazil, we continue increasing our sugarcane plantation and the expansion of our biomethane production to replace diesel consumption and explore other alternative uses. During 2023, we reviewed our CapEx investments in our Farm and Business to generate savings in a year of adverse weather in Argentina. Our main CapEx program consisted of expanding our rice operations and finalizing the construction of our 2nd biodigester in our dairy operation and the upgrade of our cheese factory line in Mortero's facility. To conclude, I would like to thank our team for the extraordinary results delivered. As you all know and Mariano also mentioned when we opened the call, 2023 started as a very challenging year but we were able to turn around the odds and deliver strong results, showing the company's resilience against adverse conditions based on great productive assets, diversification of products and regions and last but not least, our people.

Speaker 2

Thank you very much for your time. We're now open to questions.

Operator

Thank you. The floor is now open for questions. Questions. Our first question comes from Isabella Simonato with Bank of America. You can activate your microphone.

Speaker 3

Thank you very much. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for the call. I have two questions. First of all, on true and ethanol, you mentioned in the press release, right?

Speaker 3

That you expect crushing to be up year over year. So I was wondering if you could give us a sense of what volume of, of King Price this year we should be looking at. And, if you could elaborate a little bit, a little bit more on the mix, between sugar and ethanol and also, the export market of ethanol, which you took advantage in 2023. And how do you see the outlook for that? And second on the crop business, and that includes price.

Speaker 3

You mentioned also about your perspective for the season as if a weather permitting right in the next couple of weeks. But also when we think about the costs side, right, if you could give us some sort of outlook or north, where, cost per Hector is looking like for the upcoming season. I think that would help us, to understand, the outlook for 2024. Thank you so much.

Speaker 1

Okay. Thank you, Sabella, for your question. To take the first part of the question, I will Renato to give more clarity on the Shu An ethanol segment, and then I will take the Crops and Rice comment.

Speaker 4

Hi, Gabriel. Thank you for your question. Regarding the sugarcane question, as it was mentioned in the presentation, in the last quarter of last year, we have a very good range. That's one of the reasons that we crushed last came compared to the year before. But we entered the Q1 in a very good condition, which was very good considering our continuous harvest model.

Speaker 4

So today we have already crushed in the Q1 more sugarcane than we crushed in the Q1 of last year. So it's a very good situation. In February March, the weather is being a little bit drier than normal. So if we put out this in consideration, we think that our yields are going to be similar to the ones that we had last year, but we are still optimistic that we're going to crush more cane than last year because our area of sugarcane has increased. So we expect we have potential to crush approximately 5% more than we crushed last year.

Speaker 4

So regarding the second part of the question is the mix of production. We are keep maximizing the production of sugar. Because it's still paying much more than ethanol right now. Last year, we have reached a mix of 52%. So we think this year, we are going to achieve a mix similar to that, maybe a little bit more due to small adjustments and focus on the sugar operation.

Speaker 4

And I think it's important to mention that we believe that the ethanol price is going to be is going to increase and the parity rate is going to reach 7% at some point of the year. And if that happens, the ethanol equivalent is around $0.20 per pound. So this is like a floor that we have to change the mix. And regarding the export, I think the we export a lot of ethanol to Europe. In 2022, there was a very good opportunity.

Speaker 4

Last year, we have exported approximately 50,000 cubic meters. This year, we haven't exported any Tanu to Europe yet because we expect that the prices in the Brazil is going to increase. So we don't have the export window open. Also the price of oil when we exported ethanol back in 2022 was very high, which is not the case right now. But of course, we have all the possibilities to export.

Speaker 4

We have the Ponsugro certification. We have all the equipments to produce the ethanol required by European market. So if that happens, we will be getting this opportunity.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Renato. And Isabella, regarding the crops and rice that you were asking, and you're specifically asking about the rice, we are today in the middle of the harvest. So we are have already harvested 50%. That is in a good shape. And now we still need to harvest the other 50%.

Speaker 1

Thinking for next year, the cost of production. So the cost of production of next year, we think that it's going to be in line the previous year because there are many different factors. And within the factors that are improving costs are all our efficiency that we've been working with the increase in the area and coming into Uruguay and all the acquisition that we are taking care of last year. So there is an improvement because of the efficiencies. And then in dollar terms, that is what how we think about it.

Speaker 1

There are most of the costs that are going to be more competitive this year than what they were last year. That is a bio fertilizer or fertilizers in general. And then even talking about the cost of fuel or irrigation cost as a total.

Speaker 3

Thank you.

Operator

Next question from Thiago Duarte with BTG Pactual. You can activate your microphone.

Speaker 5

Yes, hello everybody. Thank you for the opportunity. Yes, I have two questions and I think focused on the Sugar, Ethanol and Energy business. The first one is kind of a follow-up. I think you made a comment in your prepared remarks with regards to the cash cost in this business.

Speaker 5

We saw an increase in the cost per pound in Q4. I presume this was due to the lower amount of cane crushed and obviously the lower dilution. And if I understood, you're still confident that you can see a downward trend in 2024 total relative to 2023. So just wanted to make sure these understandings are correct with regards to cost in Q4 and to unitary cost in 2024? That will be the first question.

Speaker 5

And the second question, when we when you look at the expansion CapEx, I think it was $52,000,000 in 2023 and mostly focused on the build of the biodigester as well as the expansion of the planting. So just wanted to know how much of that we should see moving on into 2024. My understanding is that most of these two particular projects are done in 2023 and how much of an expansion CapEx we could see carrying over for the business into 2024? That will be it. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Okay. Thank you, Thiago, for your question. Bernardo, do you want to answer and then I can complement?

Speaker 4

Okay. Okay. So hi, Thiago. Thank you for your question. So regarding the cost, we think that there are some components of the cost that is going to increase such as labor that increase according to inflation, freight that is still under pressure, but there are other factors also in the numerator parts of the costs that are decreasing such as inputs in general.

Speaker 4

So I would say that the numerator part of the cost is almost flat year over year. But the denominator part, I think, is going to make the difference in our case. We as I mentioned before, we still believe that we're going to crush more sugarcane this year compared to last year. So this dilutes our cost more. So we expect a cost similar or slightly lower than we had last year.

Speaker 4

And regarding the question about the CapEx, I think the CapEx that we are projecting to do exactly what we mentioned is the expansion of our planting to fulfill our capacity in Matugoros do Sul and also the biodigester expansion. We plan to increase our production of Biometan in Matoporos do Sul from 6000000 to 30000 cubic meters per day in the next 4 years. So that's basically the CapEx that we are planning to do.

Speaker 1

Very clear, Renato and Thiago, just to complement, I wanted to make more open on our CapEx is for this year and this has a lot to do with the capital allocation and how we think about it. First of all, these results that we are seeing today and this increase in distribution because of the increase of net cash from operations are the clear consequence of all the investments that we've been doing in this during these years. So today, we still see lot of growth opportunities. And as Renato was explaining on the sugar and ethanol, we have this clear opportunity on increasing the continue to increase the sugarcane plantation that is very efficient in this specific area, continue to increase the biodigesting of the vineyards that then is transforming to a biofertilizer. So the whole system still has a lot to grow and a lot to replace the diesel, etcetera.

Speaker 1

So that is on the sugar and ethanol that there are many other things that are also very interesting. On top of this, we have these expansion projects in the rice business. As you've seen in the RISE business, we've been growing and the results are clearly paying off. The same thing we have for the daily, there are some opportunities that we think are very attractive. So we can expect this to continue to happen what you've been seeing in the last years.

Speaker 1

But this also means that we are fully convinced of our distribution policy. We put in place this fully this distribution policy 2.5 years ago, and we are following that very closely. We are fully committed to this, And we are doing through both dividends and buybacks, as Emilio explained. And the dividends something you will be seeing, the $35,000,000 And on top of that, you saw that we bought back $1,800,000 of shares. That is 1.7% of the company in only 2 months.

Speaker 1

So that is something that we expect, or you can see to continue to happen. That is above the policy. And most of the years we've been, going above the policy, and the policy says at least. So that's a clear view or a clear something that we are clearly thinking on. So that was to complement the concept of how we think about the CapEx and capital allocation.

Speaker 5

No, that's great, Mariano. Thank you for the additional color.

Operator

Next question from Larissa Perez with Itau BBA. You can activate your microphone.

Speaker 6

Because the probability of La Nina coming back by the second half of this year has been steadily increasing. And I wanted to hear from you, how much do you think it could impact both the Argentinian Farming division and the Brazilian Sugar and Ethanol division? That would be my first question regarding the impacts on the 2nd semester and the beginning of next year. And my second question would be on the process of SAF certification. Congratulations on getting the Angelica Mills certified for SAF production.

Speaker 6

I would like to understand if you're planning on certifying your other mills and what are the next steps here that you envision towards supplying ethanol for SAF production? Those would be my 2 questions. Thank you once again.

Speaker 1

Okay. Larissa, thank you for your for both questions. I'm going to take some time to go in detail because I think are very relevant. First of all, on La Nina, here we need to be clear, we are all hearing about La Nina year coming ahead of us. This is totally different to what happened the previous year because now would be a La Nina year after El Nino year.

Speaker 1

The great issue that we had with La Nina the previous year was because of a 3rd consecutive year of La Nina. And this is a very different situation than what we have today, where we have most of the reservoirs full, and then you have a La Nina effect. That, of course, will have effects that I will go in detail in a segment by segment case and how this can how can this affect us. First of all, on the sugar and ethanol business, the area where we are with our sugarcane plantation in Mato Grosso do Sul is an area that is neutral to El Nino or La Nina. So it doesn't really affect to our own production.

Speaker 1

So it doesn't have a clear consequence to our own production. But what we can see in La Nina is that center south in general is more dry. And so the harvest will be shorter but also lower. So as Renato explained before, we expect lower sugarcane production in Central South as general, and that means that is optimistic for prices of sugar and ethanol both. So all in all, for our sugar and ethanol business, we believe it is a positive impact.

Speaker 1

Impact. Then when we go to the crops, that is what has been more affected and is more affected by La Nina year. We are already working on that. So while we are negotiating the leases for the crops, we are taking that into account. And also when we present our planting plan, the crop rotation and how we manage the crop rotation, we are also taking into account this potential anemia year, and so we can mitigate the impact.

Speaker 1

But in crops, we always talk about mitigating the impact because you will always have some type of impact if we have a land in year year. Then we moved into the dairy that for dairy is totally neutral. We don't see any effect for La Nina or El Nino. So in general, we can say that for our production system and our specifics is neutral, a little bit positive because in general prices go up in La Nina because the rest of the production is affected with La Nina here. And then to the right segment, that is the one that could be more positive if we take the lesson learned of the previous years because in this case, rice is 100% irrigated.

Speaker 1

So being 100% irrigated, if we have enough water, it is the ideal situation because in La Nina year, you have more sun, more sun, more temperature, and that helps for the evolution of the rice business. The point here is that you need to be with the reservoirs full. And today, we are with all the reservoirs full, and we are very well prepared for next year if we have a La Nina year in the case of the rice segment. So all these investments we've been doing in rice are clearly paying off, and we have learned lessons in order to plan the amount of hectares that we have enough water. So that's why we are very if it is a La Nina year for the RISE business is a very positive has a very positive impact.

Speaker 1

So that's all in all the impact of what La Nina could be. And then going to your second question about this sustainable aviation fuel certification or the CORSA certification that allows us to produce sustainable aviation fuels. I think that it is important to mention here what had happened yesterday in the Brazilian Congress. The Brazilian Congress is approving with an important majority the fuel the law of the fuels for the future. And this law of fuels for the future is taking into account many things, including the sustainable aviation fuel.

Speaker 1

So we believe that all what we are producing in Brazil through our sugarcane production is totally aligned with this law that the Congress is approving. First of all, the biofuels are going to be more relevant. The mix is increasing. So they are in favor of biofuels, and that is very important. Then they are putting a sustainable aviation fuel target of 1% in 2027, and from there increasing to 10%.

Speaker 1

So that opens a possibility of a new market for all our ethanol, and we can certificate, I'm being specific on your answer, we can certificate all what we have as a bone sucrose certification. So having all our Bonsucro certification allows us to produce more than 50% of our total ethanol production with the certification as of today. And of course, all the other means will also be certificated, and this is a process. So that is very relevant. Then this law also talks about the biogas and the obliged to start mixing biogas with the gas consumption.

Speaker 1

So biogas is what we are producing and in which we are investing, as Renato was explaining before, through what we are taking out of the VINAS. And so that is part of the same concept. Then 4th, talks about carbon storage. And carbon storage means the CO2 being able to put it into this back into the soil, and the area where we are producing is one of the areas of Brazil where you can do that because of the geological things that or area that we have there. Then finally, the whole law talks about the CO2 emissions since the very, very origin of the biofuel until the full consumption.

Speaker 1

So in this whole chain, if we think about CO2 emissions, since the very beginning, these biofuels coming from the sugarcane are the most efficient in the world. That's why we think all this law is very much aligned with all our long term strategy in Brazil and in our sustainable production models in general, not only Brazil.

Operator

This concludes the question and answer section. At this time, I would like to turn the floor back to Mr. Bosch for any closing remarks.

Speaker 1

Thank you all very much. Thank you for participating in the call. And we hope to see you in our upcoming events.

Operator

Thank you. This concludes today's presentation. You may disconnect at this time, and have a nice day.

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Key Takeaways

  • In Q4 and full-year 2023, Adecoagro delivered all-time records with gross sales of $1.4 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $477 million and net cash from operations of $176 million, while reducing net debt by over $150 million.
  • Under its capital allocation policy, the company will distribute a new record of at least $70 million to shareholders in 2024 via dividends and share buybacks.
  • Adecoagro reinforced its ESG credentials by setting 2030 decarbonization targets, earning CORSA certification at its Angélica mill for aviation-grade ethanol and commissioning a second biodigester to inject renewable power and produce biofertilizer.
  • Looking ahead, management expects normalized weather to restore crop and rice yields on over 270,000 hectares, while sugarcane crushing in Brazil is forecast to rise by about 5%, driving further cost dilution and volume growth.
  • 2024 CapEx will focus on expanding sugarcane plantings and biomethane production, with unit cash costs projected to be flat or slightly lower as higher throughput offsets inflationary pressures on inputs and freight.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Adecoagro Q4 2023
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