Conifex Timber Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
March 27, 2024

There are 4 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Conifex Timber Inc. Q4 2023 results conference call. I would now like to turn the meeting over to Mr. Ken Shields, the CEO and Chairman of the company.

Operator

Please go ahead. Well, thank you, Chris, and good afternoon, everyone. I'm Ken Shields, as Chris mentioned,

Speaker 1

with Sharon and CEO of Conifex. And I'm joined today by our Chief Financial Officer, Trevor Pruden and by our President and Chief Operating Officer, Andrew McCollum. Today, I thought that I'd go through some prepared remarks that track the material in an accompanying slide deck that we've distributed. So if you wish to follow along, you may wish to start at Slide 3 in the deck. And Slide 3, of course, indicates the main topics we wish to cover today, which are, first of all, a description of how recent development has enabled our integrated sawmill and power generation site at Mackenzie to migrate to a much lower and more enviable position on the North American softwood lumber industry cost curve.

Speaker 1

The second thing we want to cover is a review of the reasons we believe that recent mill closures and shift curtailment announcements in our operating region in the interior of BC has the potential to greatly enhance cash flow generation at our Mackenzie site. 3rd, we want to explain why we are confident we will successfully secure new credit facilities that better align with our business plan. And lastly, we want to update you on a revenue diversification opportunity that we're considering that has the potential to strengthen our company. But before jumping into the details, let's quickly deal with the housekeeping items. We will be making forward looking statements and references to non IFRS measures and therefore call your attention to the warning statements set out on Pages 12 of the MD and A release earlier today.

Speaker 1

Turning to our recent financial results, Slide 4 in the investor deck summarizes our Q4 and full year results. Our Q4 results were entirely consistent with the guidance we provided on our November call with you when we disclosed that although most lumber producers were likely to report sequentially weaker results in Q4 of 'twenty three than in Q3 of 'twenty three. At Conifex, we expected our results to improve. For Q4 'twenty three, we reported negative EBITDA of $3,500,000 which of course is 48% better than the negative EBITDA of $6,700,000 we reported for Q3. Looking ahead to Q1 of 2024, we expect to show further sequential improvement, of course.

Speaker 1

And looking beyond Q1 and assuming that our power plant and sawmill operate as planned and also assuming that the cash SPF prices that are implicit in lumber futures contract of around US500 dollars per 1,000 board seat. Assuming these prices materialize, we expect to report double digit positive EBITDA in 2024. Slide 5 reminds all of us as to how the Solog fiber sourcing restrictions that we abided by between 2018 2022 damaged our competitiveness. Back then, the Chief Forrester mandated that 55% of our sawlog harvest in the McKinsey Timber Supply Area or TSA had to be sourced from dead and dying beetle killed sand. This salvage harvest requirement was not relaxed when the chief foresters announced in 2020 that 70% of the fiber volume in salvage stand had lost its commercial value of the sawlog and was more properly classified as pulp water by energy side.

Speaker 1

So you can imagine how excited we all were on February pardon me, on May 4, 2023, when the Chief Forester allowed us to transition to a green log site. Although our transition to a green log side is not yet fully complete, many initial benefits such as improved sawmill productivity, higher lumber grade outturns and more lucrative lumber selling price realization showed up in Q4 of 2023. And those factors, of course, enabled us to report a differentially reduced EBITDA loss. Summing up to this point, the Chief Forrester's decision to eliminate the salvage harvest requirement in the Mackenzie TSA has enabled us to migrate to a lower and more enviable position on the North American softwood lumber industry cost curve. And as a matter of interest, Slide 6 in the deck we distributed today includes the benchmarking analysis that the Conifex management team shared with the Conifex Board of Directors earlier today.

Speaker 1

Looking ahead, we sense that STF supplies are contracting at the same time STF demand is building. And we therefore believe that lumber prices are going higher. As set out in Slide 7 of our deck, you'll see that the log harvest in the Imperial region of BC, which totaled 47,000,000 cubic meters in 2018, plummeted to 27,000,000 cubic meters in 2023. The Ministry of Forests also disclosed us in the most recent budget document that it expects the Interior BC log harvest to amount to roughly 26,000,000 cubic meters annually for the year that is just about 10 and for the ensuing 3 years. This harvest contraction will reduce SPF lumber production from the interior region of the seat by about 4,800,000,000 or 4,900,000,000 board feet annually.

Speaker 1

And this supply contraction is huge, it's equivalent to something like 8% of North American softwood lumber consumption. And it's also equivalent to offset the incremental softwood lumber supply from something like 20 new industrial scale sawmills that could be brought on stream in the U. S. South. So with mounting evidence that U.

Speaker 1

S. Housing starts are increasing in 2024 and 2025, our view of the supply demand dynamics in SBS is that we're entering a period of rising lumber prices. Besides having a positive effect on lumber prices, one consequence of the recently announced snow closures set out on Slide 7 is the potential for the remaining sawmills operating in the interior region of BC to move to an even lower position on the North American lumber industry cost curve. With fewer mills operating, it follows that there will be fewer bidders for a purchase word at BCTS auction. And this could have the effect of keeping bid prices and therefore stumpage rates in DC at more affordable levels.

Speaker 1

The mills that continue to operate should continue to enjoy steady demand and pricing for residual chips and other co products of the manufacturing process. We also sense that the remaining mills operating will have opportunities to sell greater percentages of their output to the high value J grade lumber market that's available to us in Japan on a duty free basis. All these outcomes can combine in our view to enable interior BC mills to migrate to an even more enviable position on the North American softwood lumber industry cluster. As mentioned in Slide 8, we operate the only sawmill complex in the Mackenzie TSA. The Mackenzie TSA is the 4th largest in DC.

Speaker 1

In terms of geographic footprint, the TSA is equivalent in size for the combined land area at the states of Vermont, New Hampshire and Connecticut. Effective May 4 last year, the Chief Forester in BC established the allowable annual cut or the AAC for the Mackenzie TSA at 2,390,000 cubic meters. Since our sawmill consumption averages out at around 800,000 cubic meters annually, it follows that the harvest level in our fiber catchment area is nearly 3 times our consumption requirement. We are not aware of any other TSA in the interior region of BC that has a comparable level of solid self sufficiency. We believe the relative advantages of being in a fiber surplus region will only increase going forward.

Speaker 1

Those of you on the line know that delivered log costs represent the vast majority of operating costs and that delivered log costs are going to be a key driver of Conifex's ability to achieve best in class economics in the interior region of BC lumber sector. Simply put, the log quality, cost and availability tailwinds we have in Mackenzie, in our opinion, will enable us to report greatly improved operating results through the balance of 2024 and beyond. Our number one priority for Q2 of 2024 is to arrange new credit facilities for our sawlog, harvesting and lumber manufacturing businesses. Our power business is separately and appropriately financed. Against this backdrop, we've engaged Raymond James to advise and assist $40,000,000 in credit facilities supported by a strong collateral base, including working capital, the fixed assets in our lumber business, our tenures and other assets.

Speaker 1

Considering the security we have available to support the credit facilities and our conservative financial leverage, we believe we will meet all reasonable requirements with respective debt capital providers put on the table for our consideration. Looking at our stock for a moment, we trade at less than 25% of book value per share and continue to believe that our stock is undervalued on an absolute basis and acutely so relative to our lumber peers, some of whom trade at much lower discounts. In fact, all of them trade at much lower discounts than we do. We also wish to draw your attention to the fact that potentially refundable export duties that we have on deposit with the U. S.

Speaker 1

Department of Commerce amount to approximately CAD46 1,000,000 which exceeds our CAD26 1,000,000 equity market capitalization by 75%. Turning to revenue diversification opportunities. On previous calls, we disclosed how we intend to leverage our power expertise to develop industrial scale power infrastructure that customers and operators that next generation data centers require. We believe many data center customers are interested in locating in DC because of our province's affordable green power. Regrettably, the provincial cabinet issued an Order in Council denying us electricity interconnection services at 2 locations where we were intending to develop multipurpose next generation data centers.

Speaker 1

We challenged the order of in counsel in the Supreme Court of BC. The Supreme Court judge agreed with us that the provincial cabinet does not have the power to impose a permanent moratorium on interconnection service, but the judge agreed with the province that a temporary moratorium could be applied. We disagreed with that decision and are therefore appealing the decision. We intend to use the EBITDA we're currently generating from the trial program we have underway to fund the cost of the appeal. The state of this case are immense for everybody in DC.

Speaker 1

Next generation data center developed can drive economic growth, it can spur job creation and achieve those outcomes, especially in rural areas. Providing its power to ConFX enables BC Hydro to number 1, lower the rate it charges to its other customers number 2, strengthen the resiliency of the provincial energy grid number 3, reduce global greenhouse gas emissions and number 4, propel the adoption of First Nations sponsored solar and wind energy projects. This is why we believe the provincial cabinet's unauthorized action jeopardizes all these benefits being made available to British Columbians and this explains why we believe we have little choice but to challenge the legal valid validity of the moratorium. In conclusion, thank you for your interest in Conifex. Andrew, Trevor and I look forward to responding to any questions that analysts and shareholders may have and we look forward to turning the meetings back to Chris, our operator.

Speaker 2

So considering that the stock is undervalued, have you considered to selling the business and just returning the money to shareholders? Thank you.

Speaker 1

Okay. Well, I'm sorry I didn't catch your name. But our view is that this is not an appropriate time to consider a prospective change of control transaction. And there are 2 main reasons that lead us to that conclusion. The first conclusion and reason is that we talked about the Chief Forester setting a new harvest level determination.

Speaker 1

But it's customary after the harvest levels are determined that there is what's called an apportionment decision whereby the Ministry of Forests decides how all the licensees in an area will have access to the annual harvest. And any party that wanted to do a detailed due diligence examination of Conifex Timber would want to have the benefit of an apportionment decision before they started working that area. So the first reason your suggestion is inappropriate is that there's more work to be done. The second reason is that we understand that last two initiatives that were launched for the marketing sawlog harvesting and lumber companies in North America despite extensive canvases by qualified financial agents and advisors, both of them ended up unsuccessfully and there were no transactions. So we don't think that the market conditions are right.

Speaker 1

So it's against that backdrop that we believe that with the passage of time that the incredibly robust fiber baskets supporting our lumber manufacturing business are going to pay big dividends going forward and that this ability we have to further leverage our power electric power infrastructure management, but also provide additional revenue streams and cash flow streams to that. So we're very comfortable building out our existing asset base. So that's the long answer to the question you posed, but thank you for closing

Operator

it. Thank you. Thank you. The next question, please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Brian Weber.

Speaker 3

Yes. Hi. Just a question on sort of the refinancing. I guess you were talking about being optimistic sort of with the Raymond James being able to refinance it. But is there any more details you can provide?

Speaker 3

I mean, is this just like another line of credit you're looking for with Raymond James to replace the Wells Fargo facility? Are you I'm guessing you don't need to raise equity at these prices. I'm just curious sort of like how you're thinking about the financing?

Speaker 1

Okay. Well, obviously, we're in the very early stages, and it's just today that prospective debt capital providers will have access to our December 31, 2023 financial statements. But our credit facility with Wells Fargo was a $25,000,000 ABL facility. But of course, there were limits on the amount of on the value of the inventories and receivables. And so effectively, we had access to probably one half of the base amount.

Speaker 1

So that facility we'd like to refinance. But on the other hand, we are very unique in the sense that our timber tenures and the fixed assets supporting our lumber manufacturing business and our timber canyons, those are not pledged to any blender. And we think those assets are worth $60,000,000 to $80,000,000 somewhere in that range. And so we'd like to get a term loan possibly in the amount of say $20,000,000 So if you wanted to keep it to the nearest $10,000,000 a package of roughly $20,000,000 in term loans or coupled with $20,000,000 in ABL facilities, we believe that put us in a very solid ongoing financial position. And if one of the facilities was modified by $5,000,000 to $10,000,000 and the other one was adjusted to compensate for the modification, we think we'd have to be in a very viable ongoing financial position.

Speaker 1

Okay. Thank you. And then I guess in

Speaker 3

the original press release, when you're talking about the financing a few weeks ago, you're having to refinance the power term loan at some point. Is that still on the table or do

Speaker 1

you feel confident with the financing for that? Well, the understanding we have with the with our power lender is that they are very interested in becoming acquainted with who the primary lender is to our harvesting and lumber business. And if they're uncomfortable with that, they would like us to consider refinancing our power plant. At the same time that that's going on, we have some opportunities to further leverage our electric power industry expertise and consider some add on businesses in that area. So, we're looking forward to our plan simply put is to settle the financing for our harvesting and lumber business and then enter into discussions with our power plant lenders to talk about what our multiyear plans are to build out that business and see what sort of fit there is with our power lender and our lender business lender and take a look at some options as well in 2025.

Speaker 1

Okay. Thank you. And my last

Speaker 3

question, if you're not successful on the appeal with the power business that you're trying to do with the electric with the data warehouses or whatever, what's the plan, I guess, after that?

Speaker 1

Well, we've done a trial basis and on our trial basis, it's been successful. We invested less than $500,000 in the trial and we generated EBITDA equal to our initial investments. So we've achieved payout on that. We think that there's a whole series of common law precedent for a monopoly provider having an obligation to service customers. So we think that we have an entitlement to power here in DC and plan to build that business.

Speaker 1

And we think that with the passage of time, the courts will agree with that and we'll have a chance to build out that business. But there's always a chance that there will be impediments to it and we won't be able to do it. But I shared our thinking with you on that and we plan to be underlinking in our development of this business opportunity.

Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions registered at this time. I would now like to turn the meeting back over to Mr. Shields.

Speaker 1

Okay. Well, Chris, thanks for doing a good job coordinating our call today. We covered a lot of material in my prepared remarks and I thought those were very thoughtful questions. So thanks all of you for listening and enjoy the rest of your afternoon.

Operator

Thank you. The conference has now ended. Please disconnect your lines at this time and thank you for your participation.

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Key Takeaways

  • Following the Chief Forester’s May 4, 2023 decision to remove the salvage‐harvest requirement, Conifex began sourcing green logs, boosting sawmill productivity, lumber grade outturn and selling prices, and lowering its position on the North American cost curve.
  • In Q4 2023, Conifex reported a negative EBITDA of $3.5 million, a 48% sequential improvement, and anticipates double‐digit positive EBITDA in 2024 if cash SPF prices near US $500/MBF materialize.
  • Interior BC log harvests plunged from 47 million m³ in 2018 to an expected ~26 million m³ annually, removing ~8% of North American softwood supply and underpinning Conifex’s view of rising lumber prices.
  • Conifex’s Mackenzie TSA has an allowable annual cut nearly three times its sawmill demand, providing fiber self-sufficiency and advantaged delivered log costs that support best-in-class operating economics.
  • The company has engaged Raymond James to arrange ~US $40 million in new credit facilities—including term and asset‐based loans—to refinance its lumber business and strengthen its balance sheet.
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Earnings Conference Call
Conifex Timber Q4 2023
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