Porch Group Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
March 7, 2024

There are 11 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good afternoon everyone and thank you for participating in Port Group's 4th quarter 2023 conference call. Today, we issued our Q4 earnings release and related Form 8 ks to the SEC. The press release can be found on our Investor Relations website at ir.portgroup dot com. Joining me here today are Matt Ehrlichman, Portrait Group's CEO, Chairman and Founder Sean Tabak, Porch Group's CFO Matthew Nagel, Porch Group's COO and Jim Weld, GM of Rhino, Porch's title software company. Before we go further, I would like to take a moment to review the company's Safe Harbor statement within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, which provides important cautions regarding forward looking statements.

Operator

Today's discussion, including responses to your questions, reflects management's views as of today, March 7, 2024. We do not undertake any obligations to update or revise this information. Additionally, we will make forward looking statements about our expected future financial or business performance or conditions, business strategy and plans, including the application for the recipient exchange based on current expectations and assumptions. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, which could cause our actual results to differ materially from these forward looking statements. We encourage you to consider the risk factors and other risks and uncertainties described in our SEC filings as well as the risk factor information on these slides for additional information including factors that could cause our results to differ materially from current expectations.

Operator

We will reference both GAAP and non GAAP financial measures on today's call. Please refer to today's press release for reconciliations of non GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP measures discussed during this earnings call, which are available on our website. The financial information provided today is preliminary, unaudited and subject to revision upon completion of the closing and audit processes. As a reminder, this webcast will be available for replay along with the presentation shortly after this call on the company's website at ir.portgroup.com. I'll now turn the call over to Matt Ehrlichman, CEO, Chairman and Founder of Port Group.

Operator

Over to you, Matt.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Louis. Good afternoon, everybody. Thanks very much for joining. I couldn't be more proud of the achievements and execution of the Porch team over the last year. Despite a sharp increase in interest rates over the last couple of years, higher cost of reinsurance and claims, some traction in the real estate market, and historically challenging weather events, the team stuck together, stayed focused, and performed.

Speaker 1

We implemented our insurance profitability actions which you'll hear throughout today's presentation. This includes enhancing underwriting activities, increasing premium per policy, and non renewing higher risk policies. We launched porch warranty and new products for our software customers, increasing pricing while maintaining our high customer retention. And we reduced costs across our business while continuing investment across key growth initiatives. And as a result of the work we've done, financial results were strong and exceeded expectations.

Speaker 2

Revenue in

Speaker 1

the 4th quarter grew 79 percent to $115,000,000 $15,000,000 above our prior guidance. Revenue less cost of revenue grew 82 percent to $80,000,000 $20,000,000 above guidance. And Q4 adjusted EBITDA profit was $12,000,000 an increase of $25,000,000 compared to the Q4 of 2022 and $8,000,000 above guidance. In every measure here, it was a great quarter. A few other key updates for the Q4 before we dive into the presentation.

Speaker 1

1, we handily beat the second half twenty twenty three profitability target we set 2 years ago with second half adjusted EBITDA of $21,000,000 Next, we had no material weaknesses. Huge thanks to Sean and the team for the expertise and leadership. This was a top priority for us, as we completed system implementations and improved our control environment. A truly great achievement,

Speaker 3

and

Speaker 1

well done team. Next, our business continues to make meaningful progress across many areas. In Q4 alone, we launched a new RHINO product for title companies. We landed a new utilities partnership, released a new HVAC micro warranty, and a CRM product for smaller inspectors. Our moving business is executing a local full service offering, expanding on our leadership position and providing moving labor to consumers.

Speaker 1

This product increases the size of our market opportunity and provides a higher margin offering. Next, we released our first ESG report which is available on our IR website and we look forward to sharing more on this in the future. And finally, we were admitted into Deloitte Technologies FAST 500 for 2023. Now over to you, Sean, on the financials.

Speaker 4

Thanks, Matt, and good afternoon, everyone. As Matt mentioned, we are extremely pleased to accomplish our second half twenty twenty three adjusted EBITDA target despite market headwinds. I wanted to thank our teams for their contribution and hard work to achieve this critical milestone. Moving to Slide 9 here to get into the financials. Revenue was $114,600,000 in the 4th quarter of 2023, growth of 79% over the prior year, driven by our insurance sector, which grew 179%, partially offset by the vertical software segment.

Speaker 4

Revenue less cost revenue was $79,900,000 resulting in a margin of 70% of revenue, which is a 120 basis point increase over the prior year, driven by the insurance profitability actions and software price increases. Adjusted EBITDA was $11,700,000 a 10% margin and a $25,000,000 increase over the prior year, driven by the Insurance segment and strong cost control. Gross written premium was $112,000,000 a decrease compared to prior year, as we focus on profitability and reducing risk for non renewals and new business restrictions and higher risk ZIP codes. This is partially offset by an increase in premium per policy. The Insurance segment was 76% of total revenue in the Q4, an increase from 49% in the prior year.

Speaker 4

Revenue from our Insurance segment was $86,900,000 growth of 179% over the prior year, driven by a 34% increase in premium per policy and lower reinsurance seating. Approximately 1 third of the growth was from increases in premium per policy and 2 thirds from the lower seating, partially offset by attrition with the non renewals. Vertical software revenue was $27,700,000 a decline compared to the prior year, driven by the housing market headwinds, which particularly impacts moving services along with lower demand in corporate relocations. SaaS revenue remained resilient. Moving to adjusted EBITDA by segment, Insurance segment adjusted EBITDA was $31,600,000 in the Q4 of 2023, a 36% margin driven by insurance profitability actions, which drove a lower gross loss ratio compared to the prior year.

Speaker 4

Vertical Software adjusted EBITDA loss was $300,000 with continued market pressure in moving services. Corporate expenses were $19,700,000 or 17% of total revenue, a 600 basis point improvement compared to the prior year. Moving now to the balance sheet. We ended the we are proud to have issued have generated $34,000,000 of operating cash flow in fiscal year 2023. We generated $43,000,000 of operating cash flow in the second half of the year.

Speaker 4

You can see here that we ended the year with $398,000,000 of cash, cash equivalents and investments. And excluding the $310,000,000 at HOA, Porch held $87,000,000 In addition, Porch Group held $39,000,000 of restricted cash, primarily for our captive and warranty businesses, as well as a $49,000,000 surplus note from HOA. HOA surplus at December 31 was a healthy $52,000,000 In the Q1 of 2024, there have been 4 items that I would like to bring to your attention. First of all, we signed a strategic business agreement with Aon, who will support us in securing reinsurance and other services in 2024 the next several years. We release them from any VESTSU related claims, although we'll continue to pursue other non Aon parties.

Speaker 4

We received approximately $25,000,000 up front cash in January 2024 and expect to receive approximately $5,000,000 over the next 4 years. 2nd, as previously discussed, we tested connecting homebuyers with 3rd party insurance agencies to convert conversion and profitability versus EIG, our in house agency. Our unit economics and profitability improved substantially in these tests, given the costs associated with running the agency. Therefore, we sold EIG for $12,000,000 cash in January of this year. EIG was a small business for us with annual commissions from third party carriers of approximately $5,000,000 and an adjusted EBITDA loss of approximately $3,000,000 in 2023.

Speaker 4

While we'll continue to prioritize selling our own insurance products like HOA and eventually Porch Insurance to relevant homebuyers, When we do connect consumers to agency partners and they sell a 3rd party carrier product, we'll receive back high margin revenue. Overall, this divestiture increases profitability in 2024 and ongoing and improves our balance sheet. And importantly, as part of the strategy around forming a reciprocal exchange, we want as much premium as possible sold into our own insurance products and for Porch Group to be the operator of the reciprocal with lower volatility and higher margins. Tighter alignment with third party agencies can incent them to drive more of their customers to our carrier. 3rd, in February, we repurchased $8,000,000 par value of our And finally, we expect to file a Form S-three shelf registration statement with the SEC soon around the timing of our 10 ks, which gives us the flexibility to raise various forms of capital over the next 3 years.

Speaker 4

We do not currently have any imminent plans to raise capital. However, this is a good corporate practice and provides several options to reduce our 2026 notes over the next 2 years. Shifting now to our full year 2023, revenue was $430,000,000 a 56% growth over the prior year, driven by 152% growth in our insurance segment. Revenue less cost of revenue was $210,000,000 a 25% increase over the prior year. There was a change to margins year over year due to mix shift between insurance and vertical software segments and a change in our reinsurance programs within insurance.

Speaker 4

The adjusted EBITDA loss was $44,500,000 a $5,000,000 improvement over the prior year, driven by improvements in insurance profitability actions we discussed and offset by higher reinsurance costs in 2023 and historically challenging hail events in Texas in the 2nd quarter. Gross written premiums were $525,000,000 relatively flat compared to the prior year, with non renewal of higher risk policies offset by increases in premiums for policy. These changes drove notable improvement in profitability, building momentum in the second half of the year. And with that backdrop, now let's take a look at our 2024 guidance. Today, we are providing our full year expect revenue of $450,000,000 to $490,000,000 growth of 5% to 14%, driven by the Insurance segment with relatively flat revenue in the software segment.

Speaker 4

We expect revenue less cost of revenue of $225,000,000 to $240,000,000 We expect overall margins to be relatively flat with 2023 as increases in vertical software margins are offset by mix shift toward higher growth but lower margin insurance segment. We've assumed a 63% gross loss ratio for the full year, in line with our 5 year weighted average. Overall, we expect adjusted EBITDA profit of $1,000,000 to $10,000,000 The year on year improvement is predominantly driven by continued execution against our insurance profitability actions we discussed today, price increases in our SaaS businesses and ongoing cost management efforts. We expect operating expenses to decrease more than 10% compared to 2023. We expect gross written premiums of $460,000,000 to $480,000,000 For reference, EIG's written premium from 3rd party carriers was approximately $45,000,000 in 2023.

Speaker 4

So our guidance implies managing to roughly flat on an apples to apples basis as 3rd party carrier written premium will be excluded under the new agency model. This includes executing further non renewals of higher risk policies, exiting the state of Georgia where we're unable to get the rate needed to achieve our profit targets and being selective around bringing in attractive new business. Overall, at approximately flat premium, we are reducing our projected risk exposure by approximately 22% in 2024, which follows the approximately 26% reduction between 20222023. This drives lower expected reinsurance and loss costs. We believe our insurance profitability actions in 2022, 2023 and 2024 set us up well for sustainable, profitable growth in 2025 and beyond.

Speaker 4

It's going to be an exciting time for the company. Now to adjusted EBITDA seasonality. We've historically experienced higher insurance claims in the 1st and second quarters. Therefore, as this illustrated chart shows, in 2024, we expect adjusted EBITDA to be negative in Q1, more negative in Q2, followed by profitability in Q3 and Q4. Overall, the midpoint of our 20 24 adjusted EBITDA guidance 20 4 adjusted EBITDA guidance is a $50,000,000 increase compared to 2023.

Speaker 4

In 2024, we expect adjusted EBITDA to improve approximately $10,000,000 $15,000,000 in each quarter compared to the same quarters in the prior year. We are continuing to roll out additional price and deductible increases over the first half of twenty twenty four, which benefits the second half. And finally, given our progress and strong results, we secured an additional kind of reinsurance product to protect the balance sheet and reduce our exposure to weather. Earlier in 2024, we purchased $30,000,000 of aggregate severe convective storm coverage, which includes hail protection. This means if we see a series of smaller storm or hail related losses similar to what we saw in Q1 and Q2 of 2023, we would have coverage, adding to what we already have for larger events.

Speaker 4

Generally, if hail events were to drive worse than expected claims volumes in 2024, we are now much better protected, increasing our confidence in the upcoming year. And our typical reinsurance renewals will occur on April 1. Thank you all for your time today, and I'll now hand over to Matthew to cover our KPIs and other business updates.

Speaker 5

Thank you, Sean. Hello, everyone. I will start with our KPIs. The average number of companies was 30,000 in the Q4, broadly similar to last quarter and prior year with continued housing market headwinds. Average revenue per company per month increased 84% to $12.77 versus $693 in Q4 2022 as we continue to monetize the insurance opportunity more effectively.

Speaker 5

We had 220,000 monetized services in the quarter, an increase of 3% despite the headwinds in the housing market and decline in corporate relocations. Finally, average revenue per monetized service was $448 up 105% versus prior year due to the growth in our higher value services such as insurance and warranty. I want to take a moment to highlight our SaaS revenue within the vertical software segment. Industry home sales declined 18% in 2022, an additional 19% in 2023. Despite this, our software and subscription revenue have remained broadly consistent over that period.

Speaker 5

While we are not assuming any improvement in the housing market in 2024, when the housing market recovers, it will be a tailwind for our businesses. Looking now at the insurance segment KPIs, which includes HOA, our insurance carrier, our warranty business and as of December 31st, it also included EIG. Gross written premium was 112,000,000 from 310,000 policies in force in the 4th quarter. Policies in force declined 20% compared to prior year, while GWP decreased 14%. This is due to non renewals of higher risk policies being partially offset by increased premium per policy.

Speaker 5

Annualized revenue per policy increased to $11.20 driven by premium per policy increases and lower seating. Focusing now on HOA, our insurance carrier, annualized premium per policy increased 34% to $1,861 Premium retention was 96%, approximately 10 percentage points lower than prior year, driven by the non renewals we discussed. Our gross loss ratio was 36% in the 4th quarter, and I'll provide more insight on that on the next slide. We welcome comparisons of our gross loss and combined ratios to all other property centric carriers. As I said, the gross loss ratio for Q4 was 36% and for the full year 2023, it was 69%.

Speaker 5

And that's even with a tough weather environment. Our combined ratio in the Q4 was 49% and for the full year 2023, it was 88%. Here on Slide 21, you can see the detail from the last 2 years, including the split between catastrophic weather and non cat perils. You can see seasonality in the cat gross loss ratio with the 1st and second quarters being the worst weather quarters as well as the non cat gross loss ratio improving throughout the 2023 year to 30% in the 4th quarter. This clearly demonstrates our ability to identify and price risk.

Speaker 5

You can see the year over year improvement of our gross combined ratio from 77% in Q4 2022 to 49% in Q4 2023. The point to highlight here is our unique data improves our ability to underwrite policies effectively as we focus on profit. We provide discounts to lower risk policies and surcharges to higher risk ones. Over time, the mix shift of our book will lean towards lower risk customers as we incentivize those customers to come to us and as we avoid loss making customers. We continue to make great progress in leveraging this competitive advantage across the 22 states we write in and across different factors in parents.

Speaker 5

And we are not done yet with key underwriting changes. In 2024, we have already filed an 18% increase in Texas. We will implement additional increases in states appropriate and are further increasing our deductibles. Overall, the rate changes we have made that you can see on the left hand side of this slide have delivered a 30% CAGR in premium per policy between 20212023 you can see on the right. And given the 2024 rate increases, we expect premium per policy to continue to grow.

Speaker 5

As we have said before, we believe the homeowners insurance space is highly attractive given how significantly we expect the TAM to grow for many years. Now on to deep dives, Malcolm Connor, our warranty business GM, shared insights into how we are well positioned to become a leader at our last earnings in Q2. We have lower cost of customer acquisition, offer a variety of products which are distributed through unique partners and have unique advantages that the Porch platform provides. Our warranty strategy is producing strong results. We entered into the warranty space the acquisition of American Home Protect in 2021 when it had $12,000,000 of revenue.

Speaker 5

We achieved our 2023 revenue target delivering $37,000,000 in revenue and $7,000,000 adjusted EBITDA. Noting 2023 adjusted EBITDA would have been even better but included certain remaining acquisition costs. We expect warranty revenues to continue to grow as we expand distribution with a 2024 revenue target of approximately $46,000,000 The business improved its profitability substantially and anticipates approximately $16,000,000 in adjusted EBITDA at 35% adjusted EBITDA margin. Looking ahead, we target 20.28 revenue of approximately $100,000,000 which equates to a 22% CAGR with a 40% adjusted EBITDA margin as we invest in growth with attractive unit economics. Thank you, everyone.

Speaker 5

I'll now hand over to Jim.

Speaker 6

Thanks, Matthew, and hello, everyone. I'm Jim Weld, General Manager of Rhino. And I have 15 years of title industry leader experience. Prior to leading Rhino, I spent more than 3 years as president of Zillow's title and escrow business. I've been a client of Rhino and got to experience firsthand how important and impactful this software is.

Speaker 6

Rhino was built over many years around a single product called RhinoLive that is very popular in the title industry. After the 2021 acquisition by Porch, Rhino successfully transitioned from a one hit wonder to a platform. Rhino is a leading provider of SaaS solutions for our clients who are title and escrow agents who collect and disperse funds during a real estate closing. Rhino's clients operate in a highly complex and regulated environment. Therefore, RHINO is critical to their control environment.

Speaker 6

Since inception, RHINO has protected 24,000,000 closings, having disbursements of about $8,000,000,000,000 Back in 2021, more than 30% of all U. S. Residential purchases and home refinances were protected by Rhino Software. Today, that number is approaching 40%. Our priorities are to build products that add value, save time, drive cost savings and efficiencies, and reduce the potential for errors.

Speaker 6

Our 4 core modules on this one platform support this streamlined workflow and are outlined here on slide 27. RhinoLive is a module that automates bank transactions daily and alerts if payments fail to clear or do not reconcile to the accounting system. Rhino A Sheet was launched last year, which identifies funds that remain in escrow after closing and streamlines processes to either return or a sheet funds to maintain regulatory compliance. RINO OpEx integrates with many accounting systems and platforms and performs daily account reconciliation and alerts for a more expansive group of clients. And we recently released a major new product called Rhino Verify, which helps protect clients from fraudulent payment schemes.

Speaker 6

The real estate industry experienced almost $400,000,000 in losses from various forms of fraud in 2022 and we can help reduce this risk. In 2023, our client retention was 93% with a net promoter score of 85 and an LTV to CAC of 10.6 times, all metrics we are very proud of and highlights our opportunity ahead. Rhino charges a transaction fee for every home and refinance closing that our clients perform. Overall industry transaction volumes declined 62% since 2021 with refinance volumes reducing more than 85% and home purchase volumes declining around 30%. Being primarily transaction driven, you might think Rhino's revenues would have similarly decreased 62%.

Speaker 6

But during these last two and a half years we've grown revenue and profits with a very bright future. You can see the overall declines in transaction volume through the Rhino platform over the last few years from 4,300,000 transactions in 2021 to 2,200,000 transactions in 2023, a decline of 50%, even as our percentage of industry volumes has improved. As we roll out new products, we increase prices commensurate with the improved value we are providing. For example, the 2024 price increase of almost 30% was implemented with the launch of Rhino Verify in January this year. As you can see on the graph, as we delivered more value, prices have increased by 97% between 20212023, more than offsetting transaction volume declines.

Speaker 6

Back in 2021, Rhino was acquired for $36,000,000 and we'd announced and noted an expectation of it being a breakeven business after investments in product and marketing. We were able to greatly exceed that expectation even as the market transactions were cut in half. In 2023, we delivered $11,000,000 in revenue and almost $6,000,000 of adjusted EBITDA, a 52% adjusted EBITDA margin. Given the new product launch and impact on pricing, we expect Rhino to deliver $14,000,000 of revenue and a 60% adjusted EBITDA margin or $8,000,000 in 2024. And this assumes 2024 has flat home sales and refinance volumes compared to 2020 3.

Speaker 6

We target medium term revenue of approximately $60,000,000 and approximately $35,000,000 in adjusted EBITDA, which assumes industry transactions should broadly double while we double pricing through the continued execution against our product roadmap. So thanks everyone. I'll hand it back over to Matt to wrap up.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Jim. Appreciate it. We do hope that today's one off targets and disclosures on our RINO and warranty business units are helpful. Just note that these are just 2 of our many successful businesses at Porch that leverage our platform to differentiate and grow and then contribute back to expanding Porch Group's advantages. Before wrapping, I want to take a step back and share our financial progress since we became a public company in December of 2020.

Speaker 1

Our business has grown more than 6 times over the last 4 years. We've increased revenue at a 60% CAGR and guidance is approaching $500,000,000 in revenue in 2024. This is driven by our insurance segment, which has grown from virtually nothing to over $300,000,000 of revenue in 2023 and what was then a central part of our vision has certainly become a reality. Similarly, revenue less cost of revenue is expected to grow to $233,000,000 in 2024, a 44% 4 year CAGR. And finally, as we've said before, our adjusted EBITDA guidance for the full year is $6,000,000 at the midpoint, a key milestone for the company to be profitable on a full year basis.

Speaker 1

And the $21,000,000 of the second half twenty twenty three adjusted EBITDA, which was a $45,000,000 improvement from the same 6 months in the prior year, shows that we are well positioned for significant profit growth potential ahead. And I'll remind you, this amount of progress has been made during a time when the housing market contracted significantly. So, just to the team, sincerely, well done. And, as you know, we are just getting started. Finally, after looking back at the last 4 years, I want to take a moment here to look ahead and provide an update on our strategy and why we're so bullish about the opportunity to build a truly great and enduring company.

Speaker 1

As you know, Porch powers software platforms, which a large portion of the home inspectors, title agents and loan officers use to run their businesses, which provides us valuable introductions to consumers and insights into properties, creating long term competitive moats. We believe we can build a large homeowners insurance company structured optimally to have lower volatility and higher margins. We'll update on the reciprocal exchange later this year, but today we'll share our 3 differentiators you can see here in yellow. First is advantaged underwriting. So, it was about 2 years ago our insurance business HOA started using our unique property data to create a pricing advantage for well maintained homes and increased prices for higher risk homes.

Speaker 1

We've made steady progress unlocking data and rolling out price increases across states to create value and improve our risk accuracy. We've seen measurable results with much opportunity ahead. 2nd, we want to be the best insurance partner for homebuyers. We offer insurance customers and homebuyers more than just insurance. Consumers can use our app or moving concierge service to make their move easy, including coordinating movers, utility setup, security, home warranty, and TV and internet with the ability to compare reviews and prices.

Speaker 1

It all adds up into a game changing experience for a consumer to make what's typically a stressful time easier. We want to become known as the clear and best choice for homebuyers needing insurance. And third, we provide consumers with whole home protection. This means offering homeowners insurance, home warranty for everyday breakdowns, and a home app to provide appliance recall check monitoring. We can be there for the whole home journey from move in to move out with a variety of products designed to make sure our consumers' largest asset is protected.

Speaker 1

We're excited about the fantastic second half of twenty twenty three. We expect 2024 to be a very successful and fun year. We have a clear and differentiated strategy, the right team, strong culture and a proven ability to execute consistently. With that, we'll wrap the prepared remarks and pass the call to the operator. Please go ahead and open up the call for Q and

Speaker 7

Your first question comes from the line of Dan Kurnos from Benchmark Company. Your line is open.

Speaker 8

Great. Thanks. Obviously, really strong end to the year. So congrats on the quarter guys. Matt, I know you're not going to talk about the reciprocal or update us later, but can you at least just give us a sense on if you've gotten the filings done or the audit done on that front?

Speaker 1

Sean, you can update on some of the filings and all, but just let me quickly on reciprocal. Happy to talk about it actually, Dan, it's just we don't yet have timing. As we talked about previously, we will update here as we go through the year. We continue to have close working relationship with our friends at the TDI, who just continue to do a really nice job, and we're excited about it. We continue to be very confident that that's the right structure for the business and that that will happen here in due course.

Speaker 4

Yeah. With respect to, Dan, I think your question is about the financials for the insurance entity, which is kind of part of that. That's on track. We're on top of it. And, you know, we'll do that in due course here in the month of March, which is what we typically do it.

Speaker 8

Got it. Thanks. So, Matt, just kind of Sean gave some really good numbers about risk reduction. And now that you've got the additional convective storm coverage and incremental what looks like data expansion. I know you've guided to, let's call it, flat ex EIG gross written premium this year, but what's kind of your thought process now that you've derisked the model so much on maybe getting understanding you're waiting for the reciprocal, but just thinking about getting a little bit more aggressive on adding policy, especially with the rate you're getting right now?

Speaker 1

Yes. I mean, it's an exciting time. As you know, as folks that have followed us know and our long term investors know, certainly the focus for second half of last year, focus for 2024 is profitability, right? We wanted to be able to make sure that we really demonstrated profits. Obviously, for 2024, we want to make sure that we're it's clearly seen that we are profitable as a company on a full year basis.

Speaker 1

And so, we've made the moves that we need to make. Now clearly, you can see on the insurance underwriting results that we are positioned to be able to grow with we believe very strong ongoing profitability. We think we've made the moves. So while we've been in this period where we've been very specifically restricting growth in certain geographies, certainly as and we noted this in the prepared remarks, we do expect to start unlocking some of those restrictions over the course of 2024 really to set up 2025 to be growing at a nice clip again. So that is in front of us.

Speaker 1

And then, Dan, on the first part of your question on the risk reduction, just to make sure I emphasize a couple of points, it is an important part of this because we have been able to even while maintaining we've been managing a roughly flat premium year over year is kind of what we've been targeting. We've been able to significantly reduce the pool of risks that we have and just overall the total amount of risks. And so, 23% is actually I think the final and precise number on what we reduce risk here in 2024 versus 2023 and 27%. So, that's a big shift in total risk. And that doesn't include the aggregate purchase that we've made of additional reinsurance around severe convective storms and hail, that new $30,000,000 purchase.

Speaker 1

And so, our business just becomes much more predictable, much better protected, much lower risk even as we have these what we think are clear and strong goals in front of us.

Speaker 8

Got it. Sean, just maybe one quick one for you. 23 was a bit noisy from an event standpoint. I'm just trying to get a handle on how we should be thinking about either operating or free cash in 2024.

Speaker 4

Yeah. So, we were pleased to deliver for the full year of $34,000,000 of operating cash flow in 2023. We ended the year with around $400,000,000 of cash, cash equivalents and investments, which is a very strong position. HOA, our carrier had 52,000,000 of surplus. To Matt's point, that's a great basis for that business to be at with future profitability and the strong momentum we mentioned in the second half of the year.

Speaker 4

With respect to cash flow in 2024, the way to think about that is, first and foremost, most importantly, we guided to positive adjusted EBITDA for the full year around $6,000,000 at the midpoint. From there, the other bits to think about for us, we don't have a lot of CapEx. Historically, it's been less than $10,000,000 Taxes are very little for us. And we do have around just over $20,000,000 of interest expense on the coupon. So those are the other factors that kind of play into it.

Speaker 4

We have seen a big driver of that cash flow in 2023 is we've ceded less. And so that drives better working capital when you cede less. And we're able to cede less, obviously, because the book is that much more profitable. And and so that that provides a lot of that working capital benefit because we're hanging on to the cash from the policy holders instead of giving it to the reinsurance partner. So I think we're starting 2024 in a really strong position.

Speaker 8

Got it. Yeah. We see the springboard, I guess, is what I'm getting at here. So, alright. Thanks, guys.

Speaker 8

I appreciate it.

Speaker 9

I'll step off.

Speaker 5

Thank you, Dan. Appreciate it.

Speaker 7

Your next question comes from the line of John Campbell from Stephens. Your line is open.

Speaker 2

Hey, guys. Good afternoon. Congrats on a great quarter.

Speaker 1

Thanks, John.

Speaker 3

So on the extra yeah, for sure. On the extra disclosures around warranty and Rhino, that was great. Those are solid businesses. If you guys hit the 2024 targets for warranty and Rhino and then obviously you just sold EIG. So that's going to add back another $3,000,000 of losses.

Speaker 3

That's $27,000,000 in EBITDA. Obviously, you've got the corporate segment. If you take that out, I mean, you're going to basically need about $40,000,000 outside of warranty and Rhino. So a few quick questions here. First on just bigger picture, are you largely done with the cost actions within corporate and how we should maybe think about that this year?

Speaker 3

And then secondly, if you can help us unpack that remaining $40,000,000 Is that mostly just HOA and improved gross loss ratio versus last year?

Speaker 4

Yeah. I can take that one. Some good questions in there. First, I'll say on the corporate cost actions, those have already those are done. But, you know, the benefits in the P and L will show in 2024 as those as it annualizes as opposed to 2023 was partial year, but the actions themselves are are done.

Speaker 4

You know, with respect to insurance profitability, one of the things I think Matt mentioned in his prepared remarks is in the second half of the year, which is really when, you know, the insurance profitability actions we talked about really kicked in, we were $45,000,000 better this year EBITDA than we were in the second half of twenty twenty two. And there's more more of that that have already been to come in 2024. So that just kind of maybe sets the tone a little bit. And then, the other the other some other drivers of profitability in our software business. We continue to roll out products and increase prices as we create more value for our customers there.

Speaker 4

That'll benefit profitability. And a lot of those have already been launched is the other thing. It's just now we need to see it kind of roll through. The second thing I'll mention is we are also continuing to increase his premium per policy. I think we mentioned today some Texas filings that we have done there.

Speaker 4

So those are the main drivers that get us to the profitability improvement year over year.

Speaker 3

Okay. That's very helpful. And then kind of staying on that line of questioning, you mentioned the 63% gross loss ratio for this year. That's going to be based on the past 5 year, I think you said weighted average. I'm guessing 2020 was lower than normal, but the last 2 years have

Speaker 2

been pretty tough. It seems

Speaker 3

like it's been way outside of the norm. And then you've also got the new storm coverage. But the question here is, how does that 63% growth loss ratio compared to the historical average beyond the past 5 year look?

Speaker 1

So, the the couple of things on the gross loss ratio. One is that we are we've been set up quite well actually with that given what we've done with reinsurance. So, for example, last year, John, it was a tough weather year in terms of hail particularly, Q2, some weather in Q1. If that same year happened again this year, again what this new pool of reinsurance provides us is an aggregate cover. So, while we typically and continue to get reinsurance for large event protection, we now have protection against a series of small events.

Speaker 1

So, we actually would have gotten the $30,000,000 back of additional cover if last year were to happen again. And so that certainly just lowers our risk for the similar type of weather. As we look further back in time, weather more than 5 years ago and the gross loss ratio was consistently around this type of a level, but I would note that things have changed quite a bit. So, when we put in place higher deductibles, so this last year there was a 2% wind and hail deductible that's being raised to 3% wind and hail deductible. That's important in terms of what impact it makes on a gross loss ratio and perhaps underappreciated.

Speaker 1

And so that certainly is a driver that helps us this year.

Speaker 4

Yeah. And I think the other thing that we're seeing

Speaker 3

in the Okay.

Speaker 6

Very helpful. Oh, I was just going

Speaker 4

to add to that. Yeah. The other thing that we're seeing in the book here is improvements in underwriting, right, and risk selection. And so I think as you know, 5 years ago, obviously, HOA wasn't using ports data at that point in time. And so and then as well as some of the other things that Matt mentioned there.

Speaker 4

So So really the combination of the things we talked about increases in premiums, underwriting actions, deductible, various exclusions, non renewing certain policies, I think have set us up really well for this year on that front.

Speaker 3

Okay. Thank you, guys.

Speaker 5

Thanks, John.

Speaker 7

Your next question comes from the line of Josh Siegler from Cantor Fitzgerald. Your line is now open.

Speaker 9

Yes. Hi, guys. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. Congrats on the really strong quarter here.

Speaker 9

First, I just wanted to dive into with near term profitability on the horizon, how are you really thinking about future capital allocation? And could M and A really be on the table as we progress through 2024 and 2025?

Speaker 1

I'll take the M and A one first. I would not expect any M and A or material amount of M and A here in the 2024 year. We have one more year in front of us of just really being heads down focused, making sure we just execute flawlessly and produce a really solid clean year. So, that's where we're at. Now, does M and A open up back up for us ahead?

Speaker 1

We do think that's a capability that we have as a company and we're looking forward to the right time to be able to turn that engine back on.

Speaker 4

Yes. With respect to capital allocation, I think the good news is I think we have a lot of great places to deploy capital and earn a very attractive risk adjusted return. 1st and foremost, the growth of the business in and of itself, I think is driving very strong returns. And then we also have the unsecured debt, which is due in a couple of years. I think we have a number of options for that one in particular and plenty of time to take care of it.

Speaker 4

But and then other opportunities as well, I won't go into further today. But from a capital allocation perspective, I think we do have a number of very attractive investments that we are looking through.

Speaker 9

Got it. Appreciate the color there. And then I also wanted to dive a little bit deeper into the cross sell opportunity between the software side and the insurance side and kind of how you're thinking about that evolving, especially as the macro starts to ease a bit.

Speaker 5

Sure. I can take that. We're excited about the access that our software businesses give to us to help homebuyers. We're also excited about the focus of our insurance strategy around helping homebuyers. We're also excited about the app and the way the app can bring together a really nice experience.

Speaker 5

And so that's all core to what we're doing. We continue to see year over year improvements in kind of the things that we measure around that strategy. And then as was mentioned here, the market has declined and that does impact our ability to cross sell because there's fewer people who are buying homes. As of now, we're not anticipating growth this next year, but we do expect growth to come. And that's going to be a tailwind for our business.

Speaker 9

Okay. Thanks guys and congrats again on the results.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Speaker 7

Your next question comes from the line of Jason Helfstein from Oppenheimer. Your line is

Speaker 10

open. Hey, this is Steve on for Jason. So we just have two questions. One, can you give us anything on January in terms of improving house trends and kind of how much that would help the software business? Maybe there's a data point you can give.

Speaker 10

And then secondly, on rate increases, I know you talked about them with Texas, for example. Is there any metric you can give on how many users, gross written premium or geographies you've increased on prices this year or thus far? Thank you.

Speaker 5

Sure. So the first, can we repeat the first question?

Speaker 10

Yes, I'll take it. I got it. So we were just wondering.

Speaker 1

I got it. It's good. So on January specifically, obviously, anytime there's more housing sales is going to help our business. But again, just to reiterate, what we are expecting and what our guidance represents is we expect flat year over year. We think that it will bounce around a little bit from month to month.

Speaker 1

The market is still kind of settling in. We're not obviously seeing deterioration at a market level year over year at this point. But certainly it helps whenever we have months that where home sales picks up. I would note just one other January macro question, I'm sure people are curious about just here more recently just around the Texas related wildfires and tied to your Texas question. Texas, obviously our hearts go out to the people in Texas and Oklahoma by the recent wildfires.

Speaker 1

I would want to note that we have not seen any claims, actually 0 claims to date and we'd not expect that will be a meaningful event for us. I think it continues to demonstrate our ability to select risks effectively. As we think about Texas broadly, Texas is our largest state. So, when we have an 18% rate increase, we've mentioned before that it's actually meaningfully our largest state that does show up in the overall results.

Speaker 7

Your next question comes from the line of Danny Pfeiffer from JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Speaker 8

Hey guys, thanks for the questions. For the first, the sale of EIG, do you maybe see any further opportunity with pruning other non core assets within the Porch portfolio? And or maybe was this more of a one off transaction? And then I have a follow-up. Thank you.

Speaker 8

I

Speaker 1

think about it as more of a one off transaction. We'll always be pragmatic and thoughtful in our strategy both on acquisitions or divestitures I suppose. I don't expect to see many divestitures because we really like our businesses and are excited about where they're at. EIG was a special case where we could sell a business and it being very aligned with our strategy. So, in terms of divestitures, that's how I would see that.

Speaker 1

Got it.

Speaker 8

And then on the second, can you

Speaker 3

maybe sorry about that?

Speaker 5

No, no, please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Yes. So for the second, can you maybe unpack the seasonal first half twenty twenty four adjusted EBITDA loss guidance? And maybe how much is the Aon reinsurance agreement and the severe storm coverage you purchased is kind of helping there?

Speaker 4

Yeah, I can cover that. So in the presentation today in the prepared remarks, I think I showed a slide which shows the typical seasonality of our adjusted EBITDA, and that's mainly driven by historically higher claims in the Q2. We talked about some of the things we did this year to further protect that with different types of reinsurance cover that would have protected in particular the hailstorms we saw in 2023. And then I think I also mentioned in the prepared remarks on a year over year basis, if you would just compare, for example, Q1 last year to what we're expecting for Q1 this year, same thing for Q2 and each of the quarters, we're expecting between a $10 to $15,000,000 improvement year over year. And most of that is driven by the the things we talked about today, which are the profitability actions and insurance, which is driving really strong run rate profitability in that insurance business.

Speaker 4

Again, that's the $45,000,000 year over year that we saw in the second half of twenty twenty three, as well as the price increases and more of the cost management items rolling through in 2024. So those are the main drivers of those as opposed to like the Aon or other things like that. The Aon just is it will be over a period of time because that's a long term agreement we have with our partners at Aon.

Speaker 8

Got you. Thanks.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Speaker 7

Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Tomasello from KBW. Your line is open.

Speaker 2

Hi, everyone. Thanks for taking the questions. Just following up on the capital structure, Sean, maybe if you could just discuss some of the paths you have to efficiently addressing the 2026 convert maturity. Obviously, you bought back a little bit here at a discount. Is that something that you'll continue to opportunistically chip away at?

Speaker 2

And also just remind us from a corporate structure perspective, if you would have any access to the sizable chunk of liquidity at HOA to help with those maturities depending on how the reciprocal evolves? Just trying to understand all the moving pieces here for the capital structure. Thanks.

Speaker 4

Yes. Thanks for the question. So I would say, 1st of all, as I mentioned, we ended the year in a strong position with about $400,000,000 of cash, cash equivalents and investments. Within that, there was also a roughly $50,000,000 surplus note between HOA and Ports Group that provides a coupon and in our company payable back to Porch Group. The other thing, obviously, we just talked about Aon and EIG, those deals collectively contributed an additional $35,000,000 of cash in January of 2024 that we'll see on the Q1 twenty four balance sheet.

Speaker 4

So I think and then finally, I guess the last point there is that HOA is in a really healthy position with $52,000,000 of surplus at the end of 2023. So and then we talked about generating adjusted EBITDA and profitability actions in 2024. So that's also driving it north going forward. With respect to taking care of the debt, I'm not going to get into any specifics. I think what I would just say is I'll leave it at we have a number of options in how to take care of that.

Speaker 4

And we sitting here today, we have over 2 years to do that. So plenty of time on our side there as well.

Speaker 2

Okay, great. Thanks for that color. And then in terms of the 2024 guide, just given all the noise this year, this past year from best to and lower seating on revenue in the back half. You have the resale of the insurance the sale of the insurance agency this year. Just trying to understand like what level of organic revenue growth the 2024 guidance implies as we kind of normalize for those different factors, if that makes sense.

Speaker 4

Yeah. I mean, it's all I would label it as all organic. I mean, I think with what we're doing with our insurance book, where we're seeding less quota share in particular, quota share is the element of reinsurance that we've cut back on. And we're able to do that because we have significantly increased the profitability of the book. So I mentioned the risk, which is the probable maximal loss of the insurance term for it, will have increased will have gotten better by 50% collectively almost between 2022 2024.

Speaker 4

And that, along with the profitability actions, go hand in hand. And that's what puts us in a position where we could have less quota share reinsurance in the book. And that will continue to some extent in 2024 as well as the price increases that we mentioned, the premium per policy increases. So that's how I would think about it. I think it's all the levers kind of come together when we're thinking about the insurance business and the profitability and what that means in terms of reinsurance as well.

Speaker 2

Got it. Thanks for taking the questions.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Speaker 7

Your next question comes from the line of Jason Kreyer from Craig Hallum. Your line is open.

Speaker 8

Great. Thank you, guys.

Speaker 7

I wanted to ask on property data. I know you've been using that for the last 2 years now. Just wondering if you can give an overview of where you've seen that data provide more of a pricing edge or any numbers around how frequently that data is being used in quoting? And then if you can give any indications of where you plan to use that more going forward? Thank you.

Speaker 5

Sure. I can take that. We're excited about the advantages that the data can provide. And we're already seeing measurable results in our own underwriting. And it's going to be a key ongoing opportunity for us.

Speaker 5

There's a variety actually of ways that we can use the data. We have actually done a number of filings in multiple states using the data. And it's things that you would expect if you were to start to imagine what would you want to know. Right. So it's things tied to the age and condition of the roof.

Speaker 5

It's tied to the type of plumbing. It's tied to where is the water heater located so that in the event something happened, what type of damage is going to take place. We think we're early in our ability to take advantage of this data. There's still a lot of data points that we think we can get about the interior of the home. And we're excited about them.

Speaker 8

And we have run out

Speaker 7

of time for our question and answer period. I will now pass the call over to Matt for closing remarks.

Speaker 1

Well, first, thanks everybody for the questions and the time. Thanks everybody for being here. Mostly, I just want to thank the Porch team for their efforts and for the truly significant progress that's been delivered. Also, to our long term investors who do see the vision and where we are and all that's ahead for us. We look forward to speaking with you all again in our Q1 earnings in May.

Speaker 1

Until then.

Powered by Quartr
Earnings Conference Call
Porch Group Q4 2023
00:00 / 00:00