Brown & Brown Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
April 23, 2024

There are 12 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to Brown and Brown Incorporated's First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. Please note that certain information discussed during this call, including information contained in the slide presentation posted in connection with this call and including answers given in response to your questions may relate to future results and events or otherwise be forward looking in nature. Such statements reflect our current views and with respect to future events, including those relating to the company's anticipated financial results for the Q1 and are intended to fall within the Safe Harbor provisions of the securities laws. Actual results or events in the future are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties and may differ materially from those currently anticipated or desired or referenced in any forward looking statements made as a result of a number of factors.

Operator

Such factors include the company's determination as it finalizes its financial results for the Q1 and its financial results differ from the current preliminary unaudited numbers set forth in the press release issued yesterday. Other factors that the company may not have currently identified or quantified and those risks and uncertainties identified from time to time in the company's reports filed in the Securities and Exchange Commission. Additional discussions of these and other factors affecting the company's business and prospects as well as additional information regarding forward looking statements is contained in the slide presentation posted in connection with this call and the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We disclaim any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future results or otherwise. In addition, these certain non GAAP financial measures used in this conference call, a reconciliation of non GAAP financial measures to the most comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in the company's earnings press release or in the investor presentation for this call on the company's website at www.bbinsurance.com by clicking on Investor Relations and then Calendar of Events.

Operator

With that said, I would now like to turn the call over to Powell Brown, President and Chief Executive Officer. You may begin, sir.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Norma. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our earnings call. Q1 proved to be another strong quarter, where we delivered excellent top and bottom line growth. Our team did an outstanding job of winning more net new business again this quarter. I'll provide some high level comments on our performance along with updates on the insurance market and the M and A landscape.

Speaker 1

Then Andy will discuss our financials in more detail. Lastly, I'll wrap up with some comments, some closing thoughts and comments before we open up to Q and A. Now let's get into our results for the quarter. I'm on Slide 4. We delivered over $1,250,000,000 of revenue growing 12.7% in total and 8.6 percent organically over the Q1 of 2023.

Speaker 1

Our adjusted EBITDAC margin improved by 130 basis points to 37% and our adjusted earnings per share grew 18.8 percent to $1.14 On the M and A front, we completed 6 acquisitions with estimated annual revenue $16,000,000 I'm on Slide 5. Growth in markets we operate in has not materially changed compared to the Q4 of last year as consumer spending remained resilient. Levels of hiring and investment were similar to what we experienced in the second half of twenty twenty three. However, there continues to be a shortage of workers for many industries, which has also driven elevated levels of inflation. From an insurance pricing standpoint, the overall changes in rates for most lines were relatively consistent with the Q4 of last year.

Speaker 1

Pricing for employee benefits was similar to prior quarters with medical and pharmacy costs up 7% to 9%. These pressures are driving strong demand for our EB lines, while we continue to see decreases of 5% to 10% for workers' compensation in most states. However, we're starting to see some changes in rates for casualty, professional lines and cat property as compared to prior quarters. Due to ongoing levels of inflation and the size of legal judgments, pricing for excess casualty lines continues to increase and we're seeing upward pressure for primary limits. Over the majority of my career, primary liability rates seem to have been under downward pressure.

Speaker 1

As you've seen, the excess market has been up substantially in the past few years and with the continued deterioration in the general liability market, the primary rate seems to be moving up in certain lines of business. Now, it seems there is an upward pressure on both primary and excess rates. For professional liability, we saw a slight improvement in pricing as compared to last quarter, but rates are still flat to down 10%. Cat property rates moderated during the quarter as compared to 2023. We saw many accounts that had low or no losses with rates down 10% or more and accounts with losses or poor construction or a combination of both increased slightly to up 15%.

Speaker 1

This was driven by some carriers or facilities willing to put up additional limits combined with some new capital entering the marketplace. As we've seen some downward rate pressure on certain properties, this may have a slight impact on those offices in cat areas. However, their new business activity remains strong and they're performing well. As we've always said, our organic growth in a steady state economy is generally driven 2 thirds by exposure units and 1 third by rate. In cat prone areas, the rate impact might be slightly higher.

Speaker 1

Keep in mind, we've built a highly diversified company in geography, lines of coverage and customer size as these enable us enable our consistently strong financial performance. Lastly, in the M and A marketplace, continued to be competitive for high quality businesses. For the quarter, we remained active building relationships with winning companies and acquiring another 6 I'm on Slide 6. Let's transition to the performance of our 3 segments. Retail delivered another great quarter with organic growth of 7.2%, winning a lot of new customers along with good retention.

Speaker 1

In addition, all lines of business performed well. We're very pleased how the team is leveraging our collective capabilities in order to create unique solutions for our customers. Our goal has always been to have the tools and capabilities to serve our customers as they grow and become more complex. We have strategically built our employee benefits and property and casualty businesses to serve customers of all sizes, those with less than 50,000 to over 50,000 lives as well as start ups to multibillion dollar revenue company. The program segment had an outstanding quarter delivering organic growth of 11.8%.

Speaker 1

This is even with the headwinds of $8,000,000 of flood claims processing revenue we recognized in the Q1 of last year. Our highly diversified global portfolio of over 60 programs performed very well for the quarter as we continue to provide market differentiated solutions that enable us to bind more accounts. Wholesale brokerage delivered another strong quarter with organic revenue growth of 10.8%. This growth was primarily driven by binding more net new business and rate increases. Our highly diversified lines of business, including open brokerage, delegated authority and personal lines grew very well during the quarter.

Speaker 1

Now I'll turn it over to Andy to get into more details regarding our financial results.

Speaker 2

Great. Thank you, pal. Good morning, everybody. We're over on Slide number 7. I'll review our financial results in additional detail.

Speaker 2

When we refer to EBITDAC, EBITDAC margin, income before income taxes or diluted net income per share, we are referring to those measures on an adjusted basis, which now reflect the previously announced exclusion of intangible asset amortization. The reconciliations of our GAAP to non GAAP financial measures can be found either in the appendix of this presentation or in the press release we issued yesterday. We delivered total revenues of $1,258,000,000 growing 12.7% as compared to the Q1 in the prior year. Income before income taxes increased by 19.4% and EBITDAC grew by 17.1%. Our EBITDAC margin was 37%, expanding by an impressive 130 basis points over the Q1 of 2023.

Speaker 2

The effective tax rate for the quarter was down slightly from the prior year with diluted net income per share increasing by 18.8% from last year to $1.14 Our weighted average shares outstanding increased a little over 1% as we continue to prioritize paying down debt on a full year basis as this has a higher contribution to earnings per share, cash flow and shareholder value. Lastly, our dividends per share paid increased by 13% as compared to the Q1 of last year. Overall, it was a very strong quarter. We're on Slide number 8. The retail segment grew total revenues by 10% with organic growth of 7.2%.

Speaker 2

The difference between total revenues and organic revenue was driven by acquisition activity over the past year. EBITDAC grew slightly slower than total revenues due primarily to higher non cash stock based compensation cost as well as lower contingent commissions. We're on Slide number 9. Programs had another strong quarter with total revenues growing 16.9% and organic growth of 11.8%. The incremental growth in total revenues in excess of organic was driven primarily by increased contingent commissions due to our strong underwriting performance and a quiet hurricane season in 2023.

Speaker 2

The growth in contingent commissions included approximately $7,000,000 related to finalizing prior year estimates that we do not expect to recur in the Q1 of next year. Our EBITDA margin expanded by 580 basis points to 42.3%, driven by the leveraging of our expense base, higher contingents and the sale of certain claims processing businesses in the Q4 of 2023. We're over on Slide number 10. Our Wholesale Brokerage segment delivered another great quarter with total revenue growth of 15.4% and organic growth of 10.8%. The incremental growth in total revenues in excess of organic was driven by higher contingent commissions and acquisitions completed over the last 12 months.

Speaker 2

Our EBITDAC margin increased by 150 basis points to 32.4 percent due to leveraging our expense base and higher contingent commissions. Few comments regarding cash generation and capital allocation. From a cash flow perspective, our Q1 is normally the lowest of the year. In addition, for this year, our cash flow from operations was impacted by paying 2 quarters of federal income taxes for 2023 that were permitted to be deferred as part of Hurricane Adelia tax relief and the payment of income taxes associated with the gain on the sale of certain businesses in the Q4 of last year. We're continuing to expect another strong year of cash generation and a conversion ratio of cash flow from operations to revenues in the range of 22% to 24%.

Speaker 2

Lastly, we ended the quarter with approximately $580,000,000 of operating cash and are in a strong capital position. With that, let me turn it back over to Powell for closing comments.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Andy. Great report. From an economic standpoint, we expect growth to continue this year. As we've mentioned before, we do think this expansion will moderate towards more normal levels over the coming quarters. With persistent inflation and a tight labor market, we believe there's a good backdrop that will drive growth, hiring and investment for many businesses.

Speaker 1

Regarding the admitted markets, we believe overall rate changes will remain relatively similar to what we experienced in the quarter. For the E and S markets, rate decreases for professional lines should continue to moderate as we expect casualty, both primary and excess to further increase. Based on what we see today, we believe there will be continued rate pressure for cat property. This is highly dependent on early storm activity this year. Regarding M and A, we're in a great position with a strong balance sheet and access to capital.

Speaker 1

We continue to talk to a lot of companies and build relationships. Our disciplined approach has proven to be very successful as we're focused on acquiring high quality organizations that fit culturally. We have great momentum coming out of the Q1. There is good economic outlook and our team continues to win more net new business by leveraging our collective capabilities. This positions us to deliver another year of industry leading financial results.

Speaker 1

With that, we'll turn it back over to Norma to open the lines for Q and A.

Operator

Thank Our first question comes from the line of Robert Cox with Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.

Speaker 3

Hey, thanks. Maybe just firstly on the margins. I was curious if the margin breakdown this quarter was kind of how you envision this year playing out with national programs leading the way. And is it right to think that divesting the claims processing businesses in the 4th quarter created sustainable margin improvement in national programs that should flow through to coming quarters?

Speaker 2

Hey, good morning, Rob. It's Andy here. I think as we've talked about in the past, margins can move around in the segments by individual quarters. I think overall, we're extremely pleased with the performance for the Q1. There will probably be ups and downs over the quarters.

Speaker 2

As an example, I know we've talked about in the past Q3, we normally will budget for a storm and a half. You never know how exactly that's going to turn out. So that kind of moves things back around. And then at least for this year on the sale of some of the services businesses is, yes, year over year we'll see an increase in the margin from that disposal.

Speaker 3

Okay, great. Thanks. And then just in regard to the pricing moderation in property cat, I'm just trying to wrap our heads around if increased demand for coverage could offset some of the pricing declines and kind of the magnitude of each of those factors and how that could play out for Brown and Brown organic growth in 2Q and beyond?

Speaker 1

So Rob, what I would say is this, we and I actually thought that we would be at this place a little sooner in the cycle than today. So I thought we might have been here a year ago or somewhere between a year ago and today. So what are you seeing? And let me describe that and then I'll answer your question. Number 1, remember, most buyers of insurance have what I call pricing fatigue.

Speaker 1

So if you have gotten a price increase on your condo or your properties or whatever for the past 4 or 5 years, you're just over it. That's the first thing. And the second thing is sometimes even though you do the very best you can as the broker, sometimes the client shoots the messenger because they're just so frustrated with the marketplace. Having said that, what you're finding today is people that wrote a $10,000,000 primary are giving you $20,000,000 or $25,000,000 now and that's bumping out some several of those buffer layers. So you're going to have downward pressure on the overall program.

Speaker 1

So you have several scenarios that could occur. 1, yes, you could buy more limits, although my instinct would be because of the pricing fatigue, they would probably not buy more limits right now. Number 2, they might be able to get slightly better terms and conditions, which would be good. And 3, in the event that we don't have another storm this year sometime, that pricing pressure downward will continue. That said, and we've always said in E and S, in our wholesale business and in our retail business, we actually write a lot of business when the market is going up and when the market is going down.

Speaker 1

Usually, you don't see as much in that market, the E and S market, when rates are flat, which they're relatively never flat. That's the answer. Excuse me.

Speaker 3

Got it. Appreciate the color.

Speaker 4

Thanks, Rob.

Operator

One moment for our next question, please. Our next question comes from the line of Gregory Peters with Raymond James. Your line is now open.

Speaker 5

Great. Good morning, everyone. So I would like to Paolo, in your comments, you talked about different rate movements and then you mentioned this 2 thirds to 1 third ratio. I guess I'm trying to reconcile the downward pressure, moderating upward pressure in some of the lines of business. Can you give us a perspective on like how much of your total business is excess and surplus lines?

Speaker 5

How much is property? How much is excess casualty? Just so we can sort of gauge the moving pieces.

Speaker 1

Well, Greg, it's nice talk to you this morning and thank you for the question. I know you know the answer to this, but we don't give that level of detail out. However, what I would say is this, we write lots of cat property in all cat prone states, but we don't write it all exclusively from the cat prone states. So you could have an office that is in Chicago or Minneapolis or Milwaukee that writes business in these areas as well. That's number 1.

Speaker 1

Number 2, from a casualty standpoint, think about we write an enormous amount in our retail business of package business. And in that package business, property many times is not the biggest part of the account. The largest account many times is workers' compensation followed by either auto or general liability. So I know I didn't answer your question, but I'm just trying to give you a little color on our book in small, medium, upper middle market and even large accounts. And so you're going to have a certain segment in the large accounts that are going to not be as affected up or down because if they're on fees.

Speaker 1

But what I would say is we are very focused on delivering very, very competitive programs for our customers and that is in many instances going to have downward this pressure in the casualty areas and the moderation in professional liability rates going down. Okay.

Speaker 2

Greg, just on this, I mean, we've talked about it. We started last year going through a few different times and then we've been over on calls. I think this is the reason why we mentioned a lot about diversification in the business is while we do write a lot of cat property, we write a lot of non cat property, we write a lot of other lines, we're across multiple industries, geographies. So we don't have this major concentration in any area, which we think is a really good thing for our business because if one thing could be up, something else could be down. It puts a nice ballast across the organization.

Speaker 5

Right. Makes sense. I guess as a follow-up, Andy, I think in your prepared comments, you called out a one time benefit in the program side. Can you quantify that again? You were going through this quickly, so I didn't catch all the detail.

Speaker 2

Sure. Yes, no problem. What we had called out as you said, about $7,000,000 of the contingent commissions that we recorded in the Q1 were related to finalizing the estimates that we recorded last year. So we would not expect to see that in Q1 of next year. So just keep that in mind for modeling purposes next year.

Speaker 5

Got it. Thanks.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question, please. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Zaremski with BMO Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

Speaker 6

Hey, good morning. Thanks. Back to the contingents and we could take this offline if you think it's warranted. But if we take out the $7,000,000 contingencies were so much better than I feel like you've kind of directionally guided to, although the guide I believe is for a full year. So I'm just trying to get at is there was there is there seasonality or a pull forward on your in 1Q that we should be cognizant of when we think about the next 3 quarters of the year?

Speaker 6

Or is there kind of a change in your view now, ex the $7,000,000 of your view on contingents for the year?

Speaker 2

Yes. Hey, good morning, Mike. No, I wouldn't say that there was any pull forward in any nature, so timing or anything of that nature. When we record the contingent commissions based upon the policies that we place with the written premium that's out there. And we estimate those to the best knowledge that we have at the time on what we believe the profitability of the book will be.

Speaker 2

So that's why there's always going to be some sort of adjustments up and down to the estimates. I think as we went into the year, we thought that they would probably be flat to up a little bit. They'll probably be now what the Q1 looks like qualifying potentially for a little bit more than what we had before, which is good for us for the year. And then there's always the question of kind of what happens during storm season, that's always kind of the wildcard that may adjust the calculations.

Speaker 6

Okay. That's helpful. Lastly, switching gears to cash flow as a percentage of revenues. Loud and clear about the 22% to 24% guide still near term. I believe in the past, not too distant past, you talked about a higher figure closer to 25 being normal.

Speaker 6

Can you walk us through quickly what's why lower today and whether we and then I guess we can figure out whether it could go back to a higher level over time depending on what's keeping it down today?

Speaker 2

Yes. So, Mike, so your first question is and I think what we said in the past is, we think that the business kind of over a medium term medium to long term has a conversion ratio of cash flow from ops somewhere around 24% to 26%. We still feel really good with that range for the organization. It's come down over the last year and a half, 2 years primarily associated with the higher interest expense. But as we're now kind of making that lap and you can see the impact on cash flow from interest expense for the quarter, right, it was minimal.

Speaker 2

The main thing impacting this year was really the incremental taxes that we talked about. So if you take those and kind of isolate that in your projections, you'd see we're actually back pretty close to our normal rate this year. So we feel really comfortable depending upon what happens with interest rates or if we take on any incremental debt for acquisitions or whatever that there's a pretty clear path back to that by next year.

Speaker 5

Helpful. Thank you.

Speaker 6

Yes.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question please. Our next question comes from the line of Mark Hughes with Truist Securities. Your line is now open.

Speaker 7

Yes. Thank you. Good morning. You had mentioned the employee benefits, the medical pharmacy up 7% to 9%. Was the organic in benefits comparable to the overall organic number?

Speaker 7

Or was it a little bit faster in benefits, a little bit slower?

Speaker 1

Once again, we don't usually break out, as you know, the specifics on P and C and benefits, but I would tell you we're very pleased with the way our benefit business is growing organically and the capabilities that we've built over the last 10 years there. We're able, Mark, to compete on basically any size account here domestically. It could have 100,000 lives, it could have 100 lives. And so we're very pleased with how that business is performing.

Speaker 7

Thank you for that. And then the wholesale open brokerage, any observations there about the growth profile on that business kind of this quarter versus last quarter? And are you still seeing the mix shift into excess and surplus or has that stabilized? How do you see that?

Speaker 1

Yes. I think the short answer to that is yes. We continue to still see accounts coming in to the E and S markets place. That's number 1. Number 2, I would say that to my earlier comments, any time the rates are going up or going down, there is an opportunity to write a lot of new business.

Speaker 1

Having said that, there also is sort of a reset in the market. So I'm going to use my term is sort of I'm not going to say chaos, but it's a little bit chaotic in terms of who will do what and how do you get to additional limits or some markets will put out more limits. And so you've had a lot of very strong results in some carriers domestically and overseas and those carriers or marketplaces will want to play in the cat property market. So I would say that, it creates a lot of opportunity for us, but don't lose sight of the fact that I made the comment when you have 5 years of increasing rate, sometimes we as the messenger gets shot in the process. Now that works both ways.

Speaker 1

We pick up a lot of business that way, but we also are subject to lose business that way because the buyer is just tired.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo. Your line is now open.

Speaker 8

Hi, thanks. Good morning. My first question, you guys have continued to post pretty strong organic growth within program segment. I know you guys pointed out, I think, Pavel, it was you that you guys lapped some one off revenue last Q1. So can you just dive into a little bit more details on what's driving the really strong growth there?

Speaker 8

And should we expect that to persist throughout the rest of the year? And I guess I'm looking more kind of away just from some of the revenue from the captive just in the programs, the traditional programs ex the captive business?

Speaker 1

Okay. So good morning, Elyse. And glad that you recognize that strong performance in programs today. We appreciate that. Number 1, remember inside of programs, we have several programs that have either significant wind exposure, that would be cat property or earthquake exposure.

Speaker 1

So that's not really a cat event, but it is an area where there is more competition. So what I would tell you is we do think that there are good growth opportunities for us going forward in programs. We, as we said last quarter, we have moderated those slightly just because we are starting to see more entrants, I. E, in the E and S space on wind, so cat wind, and we're starting to see some more competitors in Quake. That said, we feel really good about the programs business, as you know, and we think about it very long term.

Speaker 1

So the performance of our underwriting facilities had delivered really good results for our carrier partners. And so what we find is more and more carrier partners want to come and join our facilities. That doesn't mean that we can put them all in those facilities, but I'm just saying there continues to be a great deal of interest. And I would remind you and everyone else, only 12 short years ago when we bought Arrowhead, there was a feeling that maybe MGAs were not as good as they are today. So, you all in the investment community sort of said, that might be a mistake or you're changing the business or whatever the case may be.

Speaker 1

And we've been very fortunate. Arrowhead was a very good acquisition and we got a lot of very good leaders out of it. And so we're very pleased, but it is interesting how the tide turns. I would also mention one final thing. We have a lender placed business where we do loan processing and things like that.

Speaker 1

And that business has performed very well in terms of we've written a lot of new business there as well. So I hope that answers your question Elyse.

Speaker 8

Yes, thanks. And then my second question is on margin. You guys have said your guidance last quarter, Andy, I think was slightly up for the full year. Obviously, started off pretty strong. And it sounds like you're not changing the guidance for contingents, right, because to a prior question, there was no pull forward.

Speaker 8

So does it now feel like margins should come in better than expected for the full year? And how should we think about I know there's some headwinds from captives in the back half as we think about losses. But is there anything else we would point out if we just think about, I guess, there's some tailwinds relative to the original margin guide for the full year?

Speaker 2

Yes. Hey, good morning, Elyse. We still feel really good about the guidance for the full year right now. And I think to your point, the question is what's the potential impact in more than likely the Q3, but could be the Q4 of the storm claim activity. So I think with it just being the Q1, very, very pleased with the Q1.

Speaker 2

But I think right now we're probably hold was still up slightly, but we feel really good about the year.

Speaker 8

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question please. Our next question comes from the line of Jing Li with KBW. Your line is now open.

Speaker 9

Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my question. I just have a question on the program margin. So I know you mentioned it included a sale of the service segment. Is it possible to see what the impact on the margin?

Speaker 9

That can you put a number on it or?

Speaker 2

Yes. Good morning, Jin. Is probably the easiest way to get that, if you go back to the 8 ks that we put out in early March, you can kind of see the impact of the businesses and the businesses that we sold rolled into national programs. That will give you a pretty easy way to calculate that.

Speaker 10

Okay. Thank you.

Speaker 9

Just a follow-up on the Retail segment margin. They also contracted a little year over year. Can you please add more color on that?

Speaker 1

Sure. So, good morning. And I would tell you that, as you know, we don't think 1 quarter makes a trend. We were very pleased with the organic growth in our retail business and the amount of new business that we are winning on a net new basis. I'll also tell you that we write business in Q1 and not all the revenue comes in Q1 as you know.

Speaker 1

So it comes in over subsequent quarters. So having said that, please don't think 1 quarter whether it's up slightly, down slightly creates a trend. We're trying to improve the business over the long term. That's 1 year, 3 years, 5 years, 10 years. And if you look at the performance of our retail business in the last, let's say, 3 years, we're extremely pleased with not only the organic growth, but the margin profile.

Speaker 1

So we're very bullish on retail, as we have been. And so thank you for the question, but I would say that we're very pleased and don't take a little up or a little down too far out of context.

Speaker 9

Got it. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question, please. One moment. Our next question will come from the line of Brian Meredith with UBS. Your line is now open.

Speaker 1

Yes, thank you. Pal, I'm

Speaker 4

just curious there's some data out this quarter that showed, and some stamping data that showed E and S kind of premium slowing in some of the major states. I'm wondering if that's what you're experiencing seeing that maybe the standard markets are getting a little more of a risk appetite here and the E and S kind of growth rates that we've been seeing are slowing or maybe we're just misinterpreting that?

Speaker 1

I think, Brian, I would hold judgment on that and let me tell you why. Let's just use the State of California for a moment. You read a lot about the State of California and what's going on. There was a large carrier that's a direct rider that has a bunch of folks. I think Caitlin Clark is a spokesperson for who they just had their carrier in the state downgraded to B, okay?

Speaker 1

And so they are talking about non renewing 30,000 policies in that state. So the question is where is it going to go? And the answer is it may go into the fair plan, which is not the desire of the state. And so but they may that may flow into this FAIR plan in the near term. Those ultimately may come out of the FAIR plan and into the E and S market.

Speaker 1

So there is an example in the state of California. In the state of Florida, as you probably know, the number of policies in Citizens, the state facility has technically gone down year over year. I think that's a little misleading because what you had is you had a number of depopulation companies come and they allocated those policies to them. So again, in states like California, Florida, as noted, even Texas and others, Louisiana, the insurance commissioners are trying 1st and foremost to create an environment where there is a competitive environment that actually there is affordability and availability. And so I would not read too much into those early indications because the next time that report comes out, Brian, it might say up substantially.

Speaker 1

I don't think it would say up substantially, but up. So I would just hold judgment on that one.

Speaker 4

Got you. And then specifically on Florida, are you seeing any additional capacity come in at this point because of the legislative changes? I think we're

Speaker 1

hearing a little bit about that. Yes. So what I would say is the legislative changes, that's going to take time for that fully to bake in. So don't make the assumption that you effectuate law and then all of a sudden immediately the carriers start lining up. It just doesn't work that way.

Speaker 1

What I would say though is on the flip side, as I described carriers that might provide a $10,000,000 primary limit on a property might actually provide a $20,000,000 or a $25,000,000 and we are seeing that on certain properties in Florida. So technically, I view that as more willingness to write and extend limits, which in turn is downward pressure for the buyer, the client that's good for the client. And so we're seeing some of that. It is not all downward. I do not want anybody to come away from this call saying, hey, every piece of property is going down.

Speaker 1

That is not the case. If you talk to our senior leaders and leaders in Florida in our retail business and you said what's happening in property depending on the line or the type of business, They might say it's down in condos. It might be up overall slightly with all properties. And but there are just very, very unique distinctions in there. So think not so much legislative yet, it's more market action.

Speaker 4

Thanks. Thank you for the answers.

Speaker 1

Thank

Operator

you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Grace Carter with Bank of America. Your line is now open.

Speaker 10

Hi, everyone.

Speaker 9

Good morning.

Speaker 10

Looking at the contingent commissions and national programs for the past couple of quarters, even taking out the non recurring benefit this quarter, there's been some pretty significant growth. I was hoping you all could help us kind of bring that across underlying growth in the business versus maybe improvements in underwriting performance versus just the contribution from the relatively low storm activity last year, just to kind of help us think about how that might look going forward and what sort of growth rate we should assume?

Speaker 2

Hey, good morning, Grace. I think as we mentioned in our comments or prepared remarks, really driven off of both of those factors that are out there. We think we deliver some of the best underwriting results for our carrier partners in the industry. And so I think that's reflective of the contingent commissions that we're able to participate in. And then with the lower storm activity last year, that is providing for at least incremental also this year again we'll kind of see what happens as we get through the storm season.

Speaker 2

And then you've got some which is just based upon the growth in the business. The one thing to keep in mind is programs is very different than if you look at retail and the retail generally kind of trends right along with the growth in commissions and fees. You can see ups and downs within programs that you wouldn't get the same correlation in some of the other divisions just because we may qualify for a program or qualify for contingent commissions for 1 program 1 year and another not inside of there. So you may see a little bit more volatility, okay.

Speaker 10

Okay. Thank you. And I guess thinking about the interest rate environment, it seems like rates might be staying a bit higher for longer relative to what a lot of economists thought at the beginning of the year. I know that you all said that the competition for M and A has stayed pretty steady so far this year, but just as some of your competitors that have historically been a bit more sensitive to interest rates when considering deal activity, just kind of come to the realization that rates might be higher for longer. Do you expect any sort of changes to the environment when looking at deals for the remainder of the year or everything should stay pretty steady?

Speaker 10

Thanks.

Speaker 1

So Grace, this is Powell. I would say that we think that it will continue to be a very competitive environment from M and A. Having said that, there are certain firms that are more short term in nature that are highly leveraged that would be more sensitive that to interest rates and we may see 1 or some of them not be as active for a period of time because of their debt load. Having said that, there seem to be plenty other shorter term firms that are based on leverage that seem to be active as well. So I don't want you to get the impression that the higher interest rate environment is going to dramatically change the level of competition that might change the names of the participants, but not the number or how competitive it is.

Speaker 1

We haven't seen that.

Speaker 2

Grace, I want to come back to one of the things just on the contingent. I know we talked about programs. Just other thing, keep in mind in retail and you saw it in the numbers and everything, contingents were down in the retail business and year over year about $1,400,000 or so is and we've had downward pressure on the contingents that we earned within personal lines just based upon overall profitability within personal lines in that just that sector right now, we would expect that probably continue on for this year. So can you just kind of keep that in mind as you're looking at trending on also on retail, okay?

Speaker 10

Perfect. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question please. Our next question comes from the line of Scott Heleniak with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

Speaker 4

Yes, good morning. There's some data out showing M and A was slower for the industry in Q1. And just wondering, I know you talked about just a minute ago, what you're seeing in your pipeline and outlook there for 2024 as specific to you because your M and A has held up pretty well in 2023, just any thoughts there?

Speaker 1

Sure. Scott, I want you to again, don't draw too many conclusions from 1 quarter or even 6 months. Acquisitions are not linear, as you know, and when and why people sell is different. And so we are always talking to people to want to be at the table when and if, but it's usually when they decide to sell. And so we believe it's all about cultural fit and obviously it has to make sense financially for both parties.

Speaker 1

But usually in these competitions when we are talking to someone, it becomes very obvious in the process that there may be one cultural fit, whether that's us or not, maybe it may not be us, that fits with that seller and then many times that is who they do a transaction with, not exclusively, but many times. And so when I say that, I would tell you that you'll laugh when I say this, but our pipeline is good. It will be good next quarter. It will probably be good next year too. And I'm not trying to be funny, but we got plenty of opportunities.

Speaker 1

It's just a question of do they fit culturally and do they make sense financially. And we're not rushing to do something. The one thing that you may know about us is in the investment community, there are 3 things that they say about Brown and Brown with certainty. Number 1, we pay with cash. It's hard to argue with Greenbacks.

Speaker 1

Number 2, when we give someone a term sheet that is not a license to renegotiate after due diligence like some others. So we do what we say and say what we do. And 3 is when we make a decision, we giddy up and go. So those we believe are 3 redeeming factors, But we talk to people and we are trying to make sure that they understand what day 2 is going to look like, not the process of courtship. And so, we feel really good about the things that we got going on.

Speaker 1

We got people talking to people all the time. And I think that there will continue to be an enormous amount of consolidation in our industry in the next 3 to 7 years. And we are going to be right here able to look at and or participate in a lot of it.

Speaker 4

Okay. Thanks for the detail. Just the other follow-up I had was just I know you don't break it out specifically, but anything you can share on organic growth trends outside of the U. S. And just kind of I'm not looking for a specific number, just anything you can comment on in terms of what you're seeing in Europe and with some of the acquisitions you've closed over the past few years, just any kind of general comment on revenue growth trends you're seeing there?

Speaker 1

Sure. So, Scott, I would say that it is performing in a very similar fashion to our businesses domestically. So we're very pleased with the performance of our businesses overseas. And that's not just Europe, I mean, Canada, I mean, we got a lot of cool stuff going. But we are very pleased and but I would say as a broad statement, think that its performance is very similar to what we see domestically.

Speaker 4

Great. Appreciate that. Thanks.

Speaker 6

Yes. Thank

Operator

you. One moment for our next question comes from the line of Michael Ward with Citi. Your line is now open.

Speaker 11

Thank you, guys. Good morning. Maybe just taking a step back on programs, there's been a lot of discussion around this. I just can you are you able to help us understand the breakout in the strength just between rate versus exposure versus new business?

Speaker 2

Hey, good morning, Mike. Andy here. So we don't break out that level of granularity, but we're very pleased with the growth in the business of what we're driving from new business where we are on policy retention in that business as well as the rate mix across all the programs again to Powell's earlier comment, depends on individual programs. They can be impacted more or less by rate. But we operate 60 programs around the world.

Speaker 2

And so we're really pleased with the overall mix. But generally, that overall business as well as the others, a lot of ours comes out of net new business as we talked about.

Speaker 1

Let me mention one other thing, Mike. Just as a broad statement, I know you know this, but remember, we're underwriting on behalf of our carrier partners. So we have this enormous responsibility to try to the best of our ability to write good risks. And so we take that responsibility very seriously. And having said that, the growth that we have enjoyed, albeit quite good, is I have to you've got to understand, we are doing our jobs of risk selection.

Speaker 1

So, what I'm trying to say is that is not we write everything that moves. And I know you know that, but I think it's important for everybody to hear that. There is a lot of business that just doesn't fit and that's okay. And so we would rather show discipline, underwriting on both ends of that spectrum. So, some people and by the way, we've grown very nicely, but the answer is, if we didn't do it the way we've done it, it could have grown a lot more, but the results longer term for our carrier partners would not have been as good.

Speaker 1

So very important distinction.

Speaker 2

Well, also that one, Mike, is you can do that short term and grow the heck out of it. We also lose the contingents that probably come along with it. And that's an important part of our business because we want to make sure that we're placing good business for our carrier partners. We don't want to go through a carrier change. That's really painful for everybody.

Speaker 2

So we try to think about these over a longer term horizon rather than just growing it by a quarter or over 4 quarters.

Speaker 11

Got it. Really helpful. Maybe just thinking back to your comments, Powell, around casualty and liability pricing picking up. Just sort of curious your views like if you think we're kind of in the earlier innings of something, a continued sort of upward trend or if it seems a little bit more short term?

Speaker 1

Well, Mike, it's as I said, I've only been in the insurance business for 34 years. And in that period of time, it seems most of that time, there's been downward pressure on GL rates. And now there is, as you've read and are starting to see, there's more and more adverse development in this last couple accident years, particularly 2019, 2018, maybe 2020. And so if you talk to our carrier partners more on a philosophical level, not just on an individual risk level, I think there is a feeling that there could be, well, a logical response would be there could and should be some upward pressure on liability rates in the near to intermediate term. That means the next several years.

Speaker 1

That's what I think the logic and the rational would say. That said, our industry has never been known for being on the risk bearing side, totally rational or totally logical. But based on what I've seen, I think we're going to continue to see more upward pressure on excess in umbrellas. And I do think we're going to start to see it may not be a big bump. I'm not talking about boom goes north real fast, but I think we're going to continue to see some upward pressure on general liability and it's not going to be this year or next year.

Speaker 1

It could be a couple of years.

Speaker 11

Really helpful. Thank you, Powell. Maybe if I could sneak one specific one just on dealer services. Just curious what you guys are seeing in terms of like inventory levels out there and activity in that segment?

Speaker 2

Hey, Mike. Andy here. Is I think what we've seen at least over kind of the last year or so in that range is inventories are back, probably not to where they were, we'll call it pre COVID, but you can find cars and trucks today and RVs because we also work in that space, which is good. I think you're seeing some of the prices for used cars are coming down a little bit that are out there. You've got some sensitivity around interest rates depending upon the profile of the buyer and everything.

Speaker 2

But I think our overall customer base is doing well. We're continuing to win more customers in that space and feel good about the outlook. In comparison to kind of where we were coming down off of the highs of COVID when I mean cars and trucks were just flying off the lots back then. We feel like we've kind of got through that space. So we don't have at least today thinking that we've got any headwinds coming at

Speaker 11

us. Awesome. Thank you so much guys.

Speaker 1

Thanks Mike. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. At this time, I'm currently showing no further questions. I would like to hand the conference back over to Mr. Powell Brown for closing comments.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Norma, and thanks everybody for joining us. I just want to make a couple of concluding comments. 1, we are seeing a lot of new business opportunities and capturing those. So I'm very pleased about the amount of new business that we're writing and the net new that that's translating through into our books. Number 2, change creates opportunity.

Speaker 1

And so the changes that you've heard today and I'm specifically thinking about cat property, although it creates some chaos that creates some opportunity and most importantly, it creates benefits for our customers. So I just want to mention that. And 3, relative to the acquisition space, we don't have a hard and fast rule of exactly how much we want to buy every year. We have a goal that we'd like to shoot at, but it's always about acquisitions that fit culturally and make sense financially. Do I think there are going to be a lot of opportunities this year?

Speaker 1

I do. Do I think there will be more next year? I think there I don't know if there are going to be more, but I think there will be an equal amount. I think there's lots of change ahead in distribution. I think there are lots of firms that are owned, that are that have private equity backing that are trying to figure out what the next step is.

Speaker 1

And so it's going to be an interesting time. I'm not signaling one over the other. That's not what I'm trying to say. But we feel really good about the business. We had a great quarter.

Speaker 1

We feel really good going into Q2 and we look forward to talking to you next time. You all have a nice day. Good day and good luck. Goodbye.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect. Everyone have a wonderful day.

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Earnings Conference Call
Brown & Brown Q1 2024
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