Altisource Portfolio Solutions Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

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April 25, 2024

There are 4 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Altisource Portfolio Solutions First Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in listen only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question and answer To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star 11 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising that your hand is raised.

Operator

Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Michelle Esterman, Chief Financial Officer. Thank you, operator. We first want to remind you that the earnings release, Form 10 Q and quarterly slides are available on our website at www.alsisource.com. These provide additional information investors may find useful.

Operator

Our remarks today include forward looking statements, which involve a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ. Financial projections and scenarios are expressly qualified as forward looking statements and as with other forward looking statements should not be unduly relied upon. In addition to the usual uncertainty associated with forward looking statements, the continuing impacts of government and servicer responses to the COVID-nineteen pandemic, governmental fiscal policies and current economic conditions make it extremely difficult to predict the future state of the economy and the industries in which we operate as well as the potential impact on HealthiSource. Please review the forward looking statements sections in the company's earnings release and quarterly slides as well as the risk factors contained in our 2023 Form 10 ks describing some factors that may lead to different results. We undertake no obligation to update statements, financial scenarios and projections previously provided or provided herein as a result of a change in circumstances, new information or future events.

Operator

During this call, we will present both GAAP and non GAAP financial measures. In our earnings release and quarterly slides, you will find additional disclosures regarding the non GAAP measures. A reconciliation of GAAP to non GAAP measures is included in the appendix to the quarterly slides. Joining me for today's call is Bill Shepro, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. I will now turn the call over to Bill.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Michelle, and good morning. I'll begin on Slide 4. I'm very pleased with our Q1 performance. We generated $4,600,000 of adjusted EBITDA, marking our best quarterly performance since the Q3 of 2020 on $36,900,000 of service revenue. We believe our financial results and sales wins demonstrate that we are not waiting for the default market to return to normal or for delinquency rates to rise to achieve growth.

Speaker 1

We improved adjusted EBITDA by more than $30,000,000 over the last two calendar years in an incredibly difficult environment of low origination volume coupled with close to historically low mortgage delinquency rates. For 2024, in what continues to be a difficult environment, we forecast that we will grow revenue by 23% and adjusted EBITDA by $21,000,000 compared to last year at the midpoint of our guidance. If achieved, this represents an adjusted EBITDA improvement of approximately $52,000,000 over the 3 year period. For the balance of this year, we anticipate quarter over quarter service revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth compared to the same quarters in 2023 as we continue to ramp sales wins and win new business on a lower cost base. And as the default market returns to normal and origination volumes increase, Altisource should benefit even more.

Speaker 1

In our servicer and real estate segment, we are winning market share. Of the 3 exciting servicer and real estate pipeline opportunities I discussed with you last month, we entered into agreements with 2, 1 in March and 1 this month. We anticipate signing a 3rd agreement this quarter. In our origination segment, we are increasing adoption of our solutions that help originators save money. During the quarter, we signed another 13 agreements for our TriMerge credit product and related reseller services.

Speaker 1

We are already seeing the benefit of our growth initiatives and believe this will be reflected in our financial results as the year progresses. I'll discuss our sales progress and pipeline in more detail in a few minutes. Slide 5 provides additional information on our financial performance and trends. Total company service revenue grew 15% compared to the Q4 of 2023 with 11% growth in the Service Owned Real Estate segment and 30% in the Origination segment. Compared to the Q1 of 2023, total company service revenue was almost flat, driven by growth in the origination segment, offset by a decline in the service earned real estate segment from an estimated $1,000,000 of one time revenue in March 2023.

Speaker 1

Companywide adjusted EBITDA of $4,600,000 was $4,400,000 higher than the 4th quarter and $3,200,000 higher than the Q1 2023 and represents 23% of the midpoint of our 2024 guidance we provided on our Q4 call. Adjusted EBITDA margins expanded to 12.6% in the Q1 of 2024 compared to 0.7% in the Q4 of 2023 and 4% in the Q1 of 2023. Q1 2024 total company adjusted EBITDA included an estimated $600,000 in non recurring net benefits and Q1 last year included an estimated $2,100,000 in non recurring net benefits. Total company improvement was driven by margin expansion in both of our segments and lower corporate costs. Over the last couple of years, we have provided you with a run rate scenario to demonstrate what Altisource's run rate revenue and adjusted EBITDA could look like in a normal pre pandemic default operating environment, while holding the origination segment constant.

Speaker 1

While we believe that our 2024 guidance takes a conservative approach to the recovery of the default market, we also believe the market will return to a more normal environment in time. Loans originated over the last couple of years after a massive increase in home values generally don't have the same level of home equity compared to loans originated before then. In addition, FHA loans are typically originated with only 3% down, providing a much lower equity cushion even with home price appreciation over the last several years. Of course, we are not waiting for the market to recover to seek to grow our business. We have a strong suite of solutions that we believe support both the servicer and origination markets and are winning new business.

Speaker 1

To help you understand the magnitude of the revenue and earnings opportunity from our sales wins in both segments, we are providing a financial scenario on Slide 6. The scenario annualizes and adjusts our Q1 performance to exclude non recurring items and adds estimated fully ramped service revenue and adjusted EBITDA related to business we have already won net of an assumed level of churn. As you can see on the slide, ramping estimated revenue from existing sales wins at estimated EBITDA margins could increase Q1 2024 annualized service revenue from $147,000,000 to $219,000,000 and adjusted EBITDA from $16,000,000 to $35,000,000 This doesn't assume any further wins from our current sales pipeline, a normal default operating environment, revenue from the launch of new Lenders 1 solutions, an increase in delinquency rates nor a return to a higher level of origination volume. We have made tremendous progress winning new business and improving our operational efficiency in a tough market. We believe this scenario illustrates the bright future ahead for Altisource as we ramp our sales wins with additional growth potential.

Speaker 1

Slide 7 provides additional information on our service owned real estate segment. Q1 2024 service revenue in this segment was 11% higher than the Q4 of 2023 and 2% lower than the Q1 of 2023. If you exclude the estimated $1,000,000 of non recurring revenue from the Q1 of last year, revenue for the Q1 of this year would have been modestly higher than the Q1 of last year. We continue to experience growth in certain higher margin businesses that support the earlier stage of the default process. Adjusted EBITDA of $10,400,000 was 21% higher than the Q4 of 2023 and 6% lower than the Q1 of last year.

Speaker 1

Adjusted EBITDA margins were 35.8% in the Q1 of 2024 compared to 32.9% in the Q4 of 2023 and 37.4% in the same period last year. The improvement compared to last quarter reflects our efficiency initiatives, partially offset by an estimated $600,000 in net non recurring expenses in the Q1 of this year. Q1 2023 margins were modestly higher from an estimated $1,000,000 of prior year non recurring revenue, the majority of which increased adjusted EBITDA and the estimated $600,000 of current year net non recurring expenses I just discussed. Slide 8 provides a summary of our servicer and real estate sales wins and pipeline. For the quarter, we won new business that we estimate will generate $6,300,000 in annual revenue on a stabilized basis over the next couple of years.

Speaker 1

Last quarter, I highlighted 3 larger late stage opportunities in the pipeline. Toward the end of the Q1, we signed the agreement to provide REO auction services for a loan servicer. In April, we signed an agreement to provide foreclosure trustees services for a loan servicer and anticipate signing the 2nd trustee agreement this quarter. We have completed the onboarding process for both wins and began receiving referrals this month. These wins represent an expansion of services that we provide to existing customers.

Speaker 1

We also made progress ramping sales wins from 2023. In the Q4 of 2023, we signed agreements to provide REO renovation services for one of the larger owners of REO Assets. We received our first renovation referrals last week. We anticipate referral volume from this customer will ramp as the year progresses. Another 4th quarter win was an expansion of wallet share with an existing customer in our higher margin trustee business.

Speaker 1

We started to receive an increase in referrals in January, which continued to grow through the quarter. We anticipate these referral volumes to ramp through the summer and stabilize thereafter. We ended the quarter with a total weighted average sales pipeline of $26,700,000 of annual revenue on a stabilized basis, most of which we forecast will impact 2025 and beyond. The decline in the sales pipeline compared to last quarter primarily reflects our sales wins. Turning to the macroeconomic environment in Slide 9.

Speaker 1

As we discussed on our call in March, we continue to believe that there are early signs of consumer financial stress and that these could be precursors to arise in mortgage delinquency rates. Moving to our Origination segment on Slide 10. Our Origination segment performed very well. Despite the 6% decline in industry wide residential origination volume in the Q1 compared to the Q4 of 2023, the origination segment outperformed the market with service revenue growth of 30% and an adjusted EBITDA improvement of $900,000 to $500,000 We also grew service revenue by 7% and adjusted EBITDA by $1,200,000 compared to last year. Revenue growth was driven by customer wins from our newer solutions and price increases in the LendersOne business.

Speaker 1

Adjusted EBITDA improved from revenue growth and cost savings and efficiency initiatives. As you can see on the slide, the origination segment's gross profit, gross profit margins, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA margins all improved relative to prior quarters. Slide 11 provides a summary of our origination segment sales wins and pipeline. We continue to focus on helping our Lenders 1 members save money and better compete. This is driving substantial interest in our solutions.

Speaker 1

On an annualized stabilized basis, we won an estimated $4,200,000 in new business in the Q1. Our weighted average sales pipeline at the end of the quarter was $13,900,000 We are excited about our progress in the origination segment. During difficult times, lenders are more diligently examining their costs and we are winning a lot of new business as a result. With sustained low origination volumes, we have been provided an attractive window of opportunity. We expect to benefit from this growth both today and even more when origination volumes return to more normal levels.

Speaker 1

Additionally, we continue to focus on rolling out new solutions to help our Lenders 1 members make more money. We believe the regular launch of new solutions to Lenders 1 members, combined with greater adoption of our existing solutions will strengthen our value proposition for LendersOne members and support further revenue and earnings growth in our origination segment. Turning to our corporate segment in Slide 12. We continue to bring down our operating costs. Q1 2024 Corporate adjusted EBITDA loss of $6,300,000 was $1,800,000 or 22 percent better than the Q4 of 2023 $2,700,000 or 30% better than the Q1 of 2023.

Speaker 1

The Q1 2024 results included an estimated $1,200,000 of net non recurring benefits and the Q1 of 2023 included an estimated $1,300,000 of non recurring benefits. Absent these benefits, Q1 2024 adjusted EBITDA loss in corporate was 4% better than the Q4 2023 and 25% better than the Q1 of 2023. The lower adjusted EBITDA loss also reflects our cost savings and efficiency initiatives. Moving to Slide 13. In summary, I'm pleased with our Q1 performance.

Speaker 1

We continue to win meaningful new business and are making good progress ramping 2023 sales wins in a historically difficult market. As a result, we anticipate that we will generate quarterly year over year service revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth compared to the same quarters in 2023 for the balance of the year. We believe we are also on track to achieve 13% to 32% service revenue growth over 2023 and adjusted EBITDA of between $17,500,000 $22,500,000 in 20.24. If achieved, this represents an adjusted EBITDA improvement of approximately $52,000,000 over a 3 year period. I'll now open up the call for questions.

Speaker 1

Operator?

Operator

Thank you. First question comes from Mike Grondahl with Northland. Mike, go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 2

Hey, thank you. Just trying to think through, Bill, kind of your latest thoughts on when foreclosure sales might ramp? And is there any other leading indicator we should look to? Delinquent GSE loans, macro things on job loss, but where is your head kind of today for that ramp? And I don't know, what are you looking to help you kind of benchmark it?

Speaker 1

Yes. Hey, Mike. Thanks for the question. So I guess the first point I want to make is, we're not waiting for the market to recover, the default market to get back to normal or for delinquency rates to rise to improve our revenue and earnings. I think that's a really important message.

Speaker 1

But then specifically to your question, Mike, look, I think the market is recovering less than we at a slower pace than we expected. I thought given those precursors, rise in auto delinquencies, credit cards, student loan delinquencies, we all thought these were good solid indicators of what ultimately was going to happen or what ultimately should happen with mortgage delinquency rates. But today, they're sitting roughly flat to where they were a year ago. And so we're paying close attention and we do anticipate that over time the market will get back to normal. If you look and I talked a little bit about this in my prepared remarks, if you look at loans originated, there's several million loans originated over the last couple of years that followed the run up in home prices.

Speaker 1

And if you look at FHA loans that have 97% loan to value, there's even with the run up of home prices over the last couple of years, there's not a lot of equity in those homes. And so I think as the economy as things get back to normal, you would expect those the operating environment for those more recent cohorts of loan originations to return to a more normal operating environment. And by the way, I think, Mike, if the market we did run the math and say what happens if the market were to get back to normal to this scenario we presented today. And I think you would see on a when we look back to the run rate scenario we've provided, I think in the 3rd or Q4 of last year, and we account for some potential runoff of our anchor client portfolios and some other churn from customers. I mean, we could in a normal environment add another $30,000,000 roughly of adjusted EBITDA to the scenario we presented today.

Speaker 1

So on top of the I think it was $35,000,000 of adjusted EBITDA in our scenario, you could add as much as another $30,000,000 of EBITDA. Now there may be a little bit of fixed costs we would add, but the number the EBITDA becomes quite interesting as that market recovers. So it's hard for us to tell when it's going to recover. We think some of the early signs exist that there could be some stress in the market, but we're not waiting for that to happen to grow our revenue and earnings.

Speaker 2

Got it. And then two questions kind of related to Slide 17. The first one, the consolidated sales pipeline and win, you guys had a bunch of wins in 2023, right? Like $68,000,000 worth and you've cumulatively got about $8,000,000 of that into revenue. If we look at the same time period, those 5 quarters presented, how should we think about the next, I don't know, I'll call it the remaining $60,000,000 flowing into revenue?

Speaker 1

Yes. No, that's a very good question, Mike. So I think, look, what you're going to see is we're now ramping and you see that on the bottom row of that Slide 17 where we did I think $3,500,000 So we are starting to ramp it. You're going to see that we're going to continue to ramp the sales wins as the year progresses. When we and look, when we get to the Q4, we're not going to be quite at that run rate.

Speaker 1

But I think from an EBITDA perspective, we're expecting to be north of a $30,000,000 EBITDA run rate if you annualize our 4th quarter performance. So you're going to start to see the benefit. And again, we're being very conservative on the default market recovering. This is primarily from a ramping sales wins on a more efficient cost base or lower cost base.

Speaker 2

Got it. And then that's helpful that exit run rate. And then my last question on the top line attractive sales pipeline, I sort of get 3Q 2023, 4Q 2023. Those numbers were kind of flattish and I think a chunk of the pipeline went down into wins. But then if I go 4Q 2023 to 1Q 2024, yes, you had $10,000,000 fallout to wins, but the number dropped by about $8,000,000 Are you happy where your pipeline is?

Speaker 2

Do you kind of need to rebuild some of that now? Or I don't know, just help us think about that pipeline, the size of it, what does it need to be to kind of to continue to support these wins?

Speaker 1

Yes, I think you're right, Mike. The reason for the drop reflects primarily reflects the sales wins. And we have some pretty meaningful sales win you're going to see, I think there's a footnote about it, but in April, we had a pretty good sales when that I talked about in my prepared remarks related to our trustee business. We think we're going to sign a second agreement hopefully this quarter, which will go into the win column as well. Look, we're never happy with the sales pipeline.

Speaker 1

We always wanted to be bigger, Mike, and we've got a really strong sales team that's done a very nice job of building the pipeline, winning market share in a really tough market today, particularly on the default side. And so I'm pleased with the progress we're making, but I'm never I always want that pipeline to be bigger. And we talk about it internally, not just this quarter, but each quarter, we set pretty aggressive goals around how we want to grow the pipeline. But we feel good. This is a weighted average pipeline, Keep in mind, the actual pipeline is much higher than that.

Speaker 2

Got it. Got it. Okay. Well, that color is helpful. Thanks and good luck.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Mike.

Operator

One moment for our next question. Next question comes from Raj Sharma with B. Riley. Raj, go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 3

Yes. Hi. So congratulations on the increase in profitability. I wanted to ask you some questions on this slide. Earlier stage, the business wins that are contributing to $88,000,000 in annualized revenue increase, how is that split that's Slide 6, how is that split between the default services and the market?

Speaker 3

I mean, I'm assuming that has nothing to do with the Hubzu side of the marketplace and also how does that split with originations?

Speaker 1

Sure. So, hey, Raj, let me turn to that slide.

Speaker 3

The service revenue scenario

Speaker 1

Yes, sir. You're on Slide 6.

Speaker 3

Yes.

Speaker 1

So of that $88,000,000 I would say a meaningful portion of that is tied to the growth of our renovation business. Then some of it is tied to the growth of these trustee wins. And I think this is a sales win through April 20 or so, it may be April 24. So this includes the trustee business, the renovation business would probably be the 2 the renovation being the largest, then the 2 trustee wins. And then the next largest would be probably, I don't have that right in front of me, but I think some of that REO auction work that we're doing for a loan servicer, That's a market share gain.

Speaker 1

And then there's some in the origination side, but it's pretty small, relatively speaking, compared to what's the growth in the servicer and real estate segment. So I think just to repeat, largely it's the renovation business, the 2 trustee wins and then the REO auction business. There's a little bit of title wins in there as well.

Speaker 3

Right. So all this is, if I'm correct in understanding all these wins are in the earlier stage of the foreclosure process basically. If the foreclosures market is not moving up considerably and there's more loss mitigation and there's more loan modifications and other early. So this is the earlier stage. Could you talk about the trustee is the trustee referral expansion business, you are taking share there and that's largely all of the gains.

Speaker 3

But are you do you make much money if there is loss modification there is loss mitigation, loan modifications?

Speaker 1

Yes. So we're a foreclosure trustee and I think it's 11 or 12 states. And there's milestone billing, Raj. So and we're not assuming that each foreclosure file we receive makes it all the way through the end of the process. But in the milestone billing process, I think you're probably billing 60% or 70% of the total fees in the 1st couple of months of receiving the referral.

Speaker 1

So it's not dependent on making it all the way through the end and our analysis or forecast of what the revenue could look like on a stabilized basis is in today's market, not in a rising delinquency rate environment or a more normal delinquency environment. And yes, it's a very profitable business for us.

Speaker 3

Got it. And then on the cost base, so clearly there were you had some cost cuts and that's contributed and the increase in revenues contributed to the increase in profitability. Are you done with the cost cuts or your cost base currently, is that to stay or are there more cost cuts to come more we haven't seen some of

Speaker 1

Yes. So let's talk just first about on the corporate side, there were some one time benefits we got in the first quarter, but even if you normalize for those one time benefits, we still brought the cost down compared to the Q4. We won't we're not anticipating those one time benefits to continue in future quarters. I think there's some modest, and Michelle jump in, savings in corporate in the second half of the year. Michelle?

Operator

That's right. It's in corporate tech within the technology and communications line.

Speaker 1

Yes. So I think you'll see a little bit of savings there, maybe just a little bit in occupancy as well, a modest amount. But for the most part, I think we don't have any new set of initiatives beyond what's already been planned for the rest of the year. And then when you look at the business units, Raj, there will be a little bit of ramping of some costs in the Q2 in anticipation of what we think is going to be very meaningful growth going into the 3rd Q4. But that would just be sort of a normal you would expect there's going to be some hiring in advance of that revenue coming in, in the Q2.

Speaker 1

So we expect some modest revenue growth in Q2 compared to Q1. But EBITDA, there'll be a modest impact to EBITDA given some of the hiring in advance of this revenue getting to a sort of a stabilized level. But we think that's very good hiring and certainly in line with our margin expectations. The new business is certainly in line with our margin expectations.

Speaker 3

Got it. And just a couple more questions, if you can bear with me. The new obviously, you are focusing on the earlier stage of the foreclosure process. You're having wins there. There is the normal run rate scenario that you have talked about in the past, dollars 45,000,000 of EBITDA and $235,000,000 of revenues.

Speaker 3

How does that change? That changes incrementally by this 88,000,000 dollars Yes, Raj,

Speaker 1

I think that's a very good question. Look, we did a bit of a back of the envelope and there's of course several assumptions that go into how we think about this. But if the market were also to get back to normal and now we're assuming that our anchor portfolios, they continue to run off over the next couple of years and we're also assuming a little bit of a churn on our pre pandemic legacy business. If you take that into consideration and we're back to a normal operating environment, roughly at normal at pre pandemic delinquency levels, we think EBITDA could grow by as much as what Michelle close to $20,000,000 $25,000,000

Operator

That's right.

Speaker 1

Probably closer to 25 dollars and your revenue would grow by as much as $60,000,000 above the scenario we presented today. So there's a lot of upside even if delinquency rates just stay at the historically low levels, but the market gets back to normal. The foreclosure initiations and foreclosure sale conversion rates gets back to normal. There's a lot of upside. In addition, our scenario we presented today doesn't include sales that take place beyond April 20.

Speaker 1

As we continue to win new business, that should improve our performance as well. We're just isolating the Q1 and pro form a analyzing the sales wins we've already had.

Speaker 3

Got it. Thank you for that's really good color. Thank you for taking my questions. I'll take this offline. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Great.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Raj.

Operator

Thank you. I'm showing no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn it back to Bill Shepro for closing remarks.

Speaker 1

Great. Thanks, operator. We're very pleased with our Q1 financial performance and believe we're well positioned for the rest of this year and beyond. And thanks for joining today.

Operator

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.

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Key Takeaways

  • Altisource delivered its best quarterly performance since Q3 2020 with $36.9 million in service revenue and $4.6 million of adjusted EBITDA, representing strong sequential and year-over-year margin expansion.
  • The company is guiding for 23% revenue growth and a $21 million increase in adjusted EBITDA in 2024, which at the midpoint equates to roughly a $52 million improvement versus 2021.
  • Sales momentum remains robust, with two new servicer and real estate agreements signed in Q1 (a third is expected), 13 new TriMerge agreements in origination, and annualized wins of $6.3 million and $4.2 million in the servicer and origination segments, respectively.
  • A run-rate scenario shows that annualizing Q1 results and fully ramping existing wins could boost service revenue to $219 million and adjusted EBITDA to $35 million, with an additional ~$30 million of upside if the default market normalizes.
  • Cost discipline continues to drive efficiency: Corporate adjusted EBITDA losses improved by 22% quarter-over-quarter and 30% year-over-year, and both business segments expanded margins through targeted savings initiatives.
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Earnings Conference Call
Altisource Portfolio Solutions Q1 2024
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