Summit Materials Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
May 2, 2024

There are 12 speakers on the call.

Operator

Hello, everyone, and welcome to Summit Materials Incorporated First Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. Please note that this call is being recorded. I'd now like to hand over to Andy Larkin. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Hello, and welcome to

Speaker 2

the Summit Materials' Q1 2024 results conference call. Yesterday afternoon, we issued a press release detailing our financial and operating results. Today's call is accompanied by an investor presentation and a supplemental workbook highlighting key financial and operating data. All of these materials can be found on our Investor Relations website. Management's commentary in response to questions on today's call may include forward looking statements, which, by their nature, are uncertain and outside of Summit Materials' control.

Speaker 2

Although these forward looking statements are based on management's current expectations and beliefs, actual results may differ in a material way. For a discussion of some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ, please see the Risk Factors section of Summit Materials' latest annual report on Form 10 ks and quarterly report on Form 10 Q as updated from time to time in our subsequent filings with the SEC. You can find reconciliations of the historical non GAAP financial measures discussed in today's call in our press release. I am pleased to be joined by Summit Material's CEO, Ann Noon and CFO, Scott Anderson. Ann will begin today's call with a business update.

Speaker 2

Scott will then review our financial performance before turning the call back to Ann to conclude our prepared remarks with an updated discussion on our 2024 outlook. Afterwards, we will open the line for questions. With respect to other analysts and the time we have allotted, please limit yourself to one question and return to the queue, so we can accommodate as many analysts as possible in the time we have available. With that, let me turn the call over to Anne.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Andy, and thanks to everyone joining us on today's call. I'm incredibly proud and pleased to report that our 2024 year is off to a remarkable start with early progress across all dimensions, including safety. Safety is a core value for all Summit employees. From day 1 of our integration with Argos USA, we have efficiently transitioned towards a common set of metrics and goals enterprise wide. We now have a shared language and governance system established, so that we can effectively measure ourselves and work together towards our goal of a zero harm culture, while consistently delivering industry leading safety performance.

Speaker 3

Along with safety, I want to turn to slide 4 to cover at a high level three areas of strong early progress this year. First is around solid execution when it comes to controlling what's within our control. Here, I'm specifically talking about pricing, integration execution and ongoing operational improvements. Pricing is performing at or better than our initial forecast. On the Argos integration, thanks to our day 1 readiness, a focused integration management office and total organizational buy in, our integration activities have proceeded exactly as designed with synergy realization ahead of schedule.

Speaker 3

In fact, we now have line of sight to at least $40,000,000 in synergies this year, up $10,000,000 from our prior forecast. And lastly, on Aggregates operational excellence, we are uncovering savings throughout the footprint as we continue to instill and foster an enhanced continuous improvement mindset through our network of quarries. These factors have provided the foundation and confidence to increase the lower end of our 2024 EBITDA guidance range. We now expect 2024 adjusted EBITDA to be within $970,000,000 on the low end and $10,000,000,000 at the upper end. From a portfolio perspective, we are organizing and optimizing around being materials led market leaders in high growth areas.

Speaker 3

To that end and thus far in 2024, we have completed 3 divestitures shedding subscale and non core assets that were not additive to our Elevate Summit financial goals, while concurrently engaging in long term and strategic aggregate supply partnerships via our asset light operating model. These divestiture proceeds as well as our robust balance sheet position us to pursue an aggregates rich pipeline of bolt on opportunities. Together, these portfolio optimization efforts are not new, but are extensions of what we've been doing since the launch of Elevate Summit to strengthen our business. Slide 5 lays out what we believe is a compelling case that Summit's portfolio is more durable and growth oriented than ever before. Relative to our Q1 2020 portfolio, we have become a much more materials dominant enterprise with approximately 77% of EBITDA generated from upstream business.

Speaker 3

That's up roughly 11 percentage points from 4 years ago. The second element I'd highlight is our reduced seasonality. Today, we maintain a large position in Texas, a much stronger presence in the Southeast and a growing foothold in Phoenix. As a result, 63% of Q1 revenue is now derived from all seasoned markets versus just 35% prior to launching Elevate Summit. Critically, our efforts to reshape the portfolio over the prior 4 years have effectively placed Summit in 9 of the top 10 fastest growing MSAs, significantly increased our exposure to year end markets and better distributes our earnings profile from quarter to quarter.

Speaker 3

Despite these objectives and foundational improvements to Summit's business, our solid execution has not been rewarded with a sustained increase to our trading multiple. Nonetheless, we remain confident in continued strong execution on our strategic and financial commitments to our stakeholders, recognizing that markets will over time come to appreciate the value of high quality and consistent financial performance. Turning to slide 6, where we present Q1 financials and line of business performance, I'll let Scott provide the details, but we'll cover a couple of notable takeaways. First, with Q1 adjusted EBITDA of $121,200,000 we now anticipate that roughly 12% of our annual EBITDA is achieved in 2024. That 12% figure is based on the midpoint of our updated guidance range and is more than double the historical baseline for Summit.

Speaker 3

If you recall, in February, we had thought 1st quarter adjusted EBITDA would approximate $98,000,000 or approximately 10% of full year EBITDA. The better than anticipated results were driven predominantly by cement outperformance relative to prior expectations. A combination of faster flow through of anticipated synergies, strong price realization and demand holding up better than forecasted drove the Q1 above our expectations. The other takeaway from this page is that while organic aggregate shipments did decrease, our demonstrated commitment to commercial excellence and value pricing is evident in the 10.4% year on year organic pricing growth. It is also an acknowledgment that pricing remains the prominent and primary lever to deliver earnings growth for our aggregates business, a trend we expect to persist as we move towards our mid year pricing actions.

Speaker 3

Stepping back and grading ourselves against our Elevate Summit scorecard on slide 7. We are clearly ahead of pace in 2024. Net leverage is well below our Elevate Summit target at 2.5 times. This provides the capacity to take accretive portfolio actions to enhance our business and shareholder returns. As expected, ROIC at 9.3% moved below our long run minimum, but we are confident that within 2 years we can restore ROIC above our 10% target.

Speaker 3

This will happen through achieving organic growth and employing our disciplined and focused portfolio optimization approach to the entirety of the asset base. And finally, with LTM EBITDA margin at 23.4%, we are benefiting from a step change in the Q1 margin profile. 1st quarter adjusted EBITDA margins increased 5.60 basis points year on year catalyzed by margin expansion for both materials lines of business. Pricing and operational improvement helped drive Aggregates cash gross margins expansion of 5.50 basis points and Cement segment adjusted EBITDA margins went from breakeven a year ago to over 25% as Cement constitutes a larger portion of our Q1 business today than when compared with the legacy Summit profile. Overall, this strong momentum to start the year puts us firmly ahead of pace to comfortably achieve our full year 2024 EBITDA margin range of between 23% 24%.

Speaker 3

When achieved, that would put us on the brink of entering into horizon 2 of our EBITDA margin commitments, a commendable accomplishment in year 1 of our integration. I want to conclude my opening remarks by thanking our Summit teams, especially those undergoing large scale changes and integration activities. You have dedicated yourselves to our common vision. And while there is plenty of work ahead of us, we are stronger today, thanks in large part to your tireless work and sacrifice to bring our 2 great organizations together safely. Thank you and congratulations on a very strong start to our combination.

Speaker 3

With that, let me pass it to Scott to walk you through our detailed financial performance.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Anne. I'll pick up on Slide 9 covering off our total company performance in the Q1. In Q1, net revenue increased to $773,200,000 including the partial quarter impact of the Argos USA assets. In the quarter, dollars 378,500,000 of revenue was recognized from the recent acquisitions. Pricing, as Anne mentioned, across all lines of business also contributed to our net revenue growth in Q1.

Speaker 1

Adjusted cash gross profit margin increased 3.40 basis points year on year, reflecting positive pricing as well as product and geographic mix benefits and came despite lower organic volumes in most businesses and cost inflation that remains elevated in several cost categories. Similarly, adjusted EBITDA margins inflected higher, up 560 basis points in Q1, driven in large part by gross margin flow through and enhanced by better G and A leverage in the quarter. As a percentage of net revenue, G and A decreased 2 40 basis points this quarter relative to the comparable year ago period. Adjusted diluted loss per share improved $0.14 relative to Q1 'twenty three despite higher interest expense driven by better operating performance. Before moving on, there are 3 items I would like to note.

Speaker 1

1st, transaction costs associated with the Argos combination amounted to $61,300,000 in the period and as is customary are not included in the adjusted results. 2nd, having completed the opening balance sheets for our combination, we have adjusted our full year expectations for DD and A. We now expect DD and A to approximate $385,000,000 in 2024. And third, a share count of $175,000,000 is an appropriate figure to use moving forward. And prior to the close of the quarter, 100 percent of previously outstanding LP units that were not held by Summit Inc.

Speaker 1

Were exchanged, effectively eliminating our Upsea structure and helping to streamline our corporate structure. Turning next to line of business performance. Aggregates volumes in the quarter were negatively impacted by adverse weather conditions across much of the country, especially in January early into February. This alongside generally subdued residential activity pushed aggregate volumes 8.3% lower on an organic basis. Organic aggregates pricing, on the other hand, remains persistently strong, increasing 10.4% year on year, powered in part by wraparound 2023 pricing as well as fresh price increases broadly implemented on January 1.

Speaker 1

Notably, the 7.4% sequential acceleration in average selling price from Q4 of 2023 is an important indicator that our value pricing approach is working and yielding solid end market traction. By market, pricing growth was strongest in Kansas and Missouri, followed closely by double digit growth in British Columbia, Houston and the Carolinas. This pricing dynamic combined with moderating cost headwinds, mix favorability and operational improvements to drive adjusted cash gross profit margins up 5.50 basis points. Per unit profitability for our aggregates business increased $1.06 year on year, continuing a positive trend from 2023. This growth came despite a cost environment for aggregates that remains challenging.

Speaker 1

But remember, we were expecting a gradual reduction in cost headwinds over time, and that's still our expectation for 2024. Margin wise, this is a fast start to the year and reinforces our perspective that we are looking to put percentage points on the board this year as we aim to reach 60% adjusted cash gross profit margin for aggregates over the long run. Turning to Cement performance on Slide 11. Organic volumes held up rather well despite weather disruptions with strong volume performance most notably out of our Mid Atlantic platform. For pricing, you are seeing play out what we discussed on our February call, specifically river market pricing effective January 1, especially inland geographies, is powering organic pricing gains.

Speaker 1

Reported growth, while up low single digit, does reflect a different pricing cadence in the legacy Argos markets that Anne will cover off in a moment. The material gains in our business is best seen at the margin line with Cement segment adjusted EBITDA margins registering 25 point 7% in the period. Historically, our business would be very pleased with any non negative cement segment EBITDA margins in the Q1. This meaningful step up reflects not only the pricing gains, but our new footprint and operational improvements. Foundationally, with our expanded footprint into the Southeast, we extend our season.

Speaker 1

Once winter kicks in and locks close on the Mississippi River, that effectively shuts down the season in those markets. Without those constraints in Texas, the Mid Atlantic and Southeast, it frankly makes for a more profitable Q1. The other factor influencing profitability were the operational improvements across our network. Yes, we are still early in our integration journey, but plant performance has already exceeded our expectations due in large part to effective winter turnarounds. I'm proud to report that all plants that have come out of their annual turnaround have done so on time or faster than scheduled and are operating at higher rates since emerging from their planned downtime.

Speaker 1

And importantly, all turnarounds were done without a single safety incident. On the investment front, our CapEx spend is already paying dividends. For example, investments in the raw mill at the Newberry facility in Florida are enhancing reliability, increasing throughput and helping to drive higher operational equipment effectiveness, or OEE, a primary value driver of our synergies. Moreover, we are seeing exceptionally strong cohesion between our plants, our people and the technical experts within our cement teams. This seamless integration of talent is critical to knowledge sharing, troubleshooting and facilitating performance improvements throughout our cement network.

Speaker 1

Moving forward, all the core ingredients for continued margin expansion are in place: positive pricing momentum and energy cost basket that remains favorable and the operational and commercial synergies that we believe are firmly within our control. Closing with our downstream businesses on Slide 12. Ready Mix volumes remain negatively impacted by residential and light nonresidential trends that show signs of improving but are still down overall. Reported growth primarily reflects acquisitions in Phoenix and the integration of Argos Ready Mix in our East and West segments. On the back of infrastructure growth, organic asphalt volumes grew 9.4% with strong performance in our 2 heaviest asphalt markets, North Texas and the Intermountain West.

Speaker 1

Ready mix and asphalt pricing grew 12.5% and 7%, respectively, in the period. And collectively, adjusted cash gross profit margins were stable year on year despite dilutive impacts from the acquired portfolio and softness in private end markets. As ready mix integration activity is well underway in key markets like Houston and Florida, we expect to have momentum to sustainably grow downstream margins over time. Unlike others, we are unapologetic yet selective about where we participate in downstream business. And when we can have leading positions in growth markets, we have proven we can deliver top tier downstream profitability.

Speaker 1

With that, let me turn it back to Anne to close our prepared remarks.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Scott. Slide 14 succinctly summarizes how we see things today. And you'll notice our view is largely consistent with how we saw things in February. Specifically, we still see demand conditions accommodating margin growth. What I mean by that is our 2024 margin outlook is not overly reliant on volumes.

Speaker 3

While that's especially prudent this year is because private end markets remain quite variable. Take residential for example. Already this year, we've witnessed healthy seasonally adjusted trends in January February, followed by plateauing and retrenching in March. Similarly, since non residential is highly project and timing dependent, we will be appropriately measured regarding the trajectory of non residential at this point in the We're finding that commercial work seems to be sensitive to the higher for longer interest rate environment. As a result, the commercial project pipeline and backlogs remain promising, but the start time lines for some of these projects could get pushed out this year.

Speaker 3

Public by contrast is the one end market where we have considerable conviction on both the direction and magnitude of that end market's volume outlook. We are encouraged by trends in our markets including the recent win of the multi year $2,800,000,000 I-seventy project that expands the interstate from St. Louis to Kansas City. This project will be accretive to pricing and benefit both our aggregates and cement businesses in 2024 and beyond. The primary point is backlogs are underpinning mid single digit or better public market volume growth in 2024.

Speaker 3

In total and on balance, our vantage point on demand is consistent with where it was 3 months ago. Public tailwinds mostly are more than offset by variability in private end markets. The swing factor on volumes will be on private demand recovery. And at this point, we are cautiously optimistic that interest rate relief in the back half will spur greater activity. But for now we aren't prepared to lean into that scenario.

Speaker 3

Switching gears to pricing. As we approach the mid year pricing window, we do so with a strong track record of commercial execution and reflecting the value our construction materials bring to their respective marketplaces. On aggregates, while our plants vary by locality and by product type, mid year price increases will be across our markets and can be expected to range between low single digit to 7% at the high end. As we effectively shift towards a dynamic, more frequent pricing model on aggregates, our sales teams are able to better leverage tools and processes to incorporate real time cost information, demand conditions and more adequately reflect the increased value that our reserves have in our markets. And while we simplify the external discussions surrounding pricing, the reality is we are constantly looking for instances to value price.

Speaker 3

In fact, we recently recognized conditions in certain East Coast markets that were suitable for an April price increase, and we swiftly moved on that intelligence and we're realizing relatively strong market receptivity. These anecdotal trends give us increased confidence that the pricing environment remains healthy and we look forward to solid traction for our mid year pricing actions. On cement, we are maintaining our outlook that organic pricing should be up mid single digit in 2024. As always, you should expect us to take a market by market approach to pricing as the demand environment and competitive sets will differ by region. For example, and as you'll recall, we priced our river market at $15 per tonne in January, while the Mid Atlantic and Southeast markets were more restrained around January 1 pricing.

Speaker 3

More recently, we issued pricing letters across most Mid Atlantic and Southeast markets that go into effect April 1. And consistent with our river, we anticipate realization to vary from marginal to 70% in certain markets. Contract timing, mix and market dynamics will always influence the average sales price that we realize in any 1 quarter. Furthermore, we have select price increases expected to take place on June 1. This tiered and surgical approach to pricing reflects, in our opinion, the positive yet rational nature of Cement markets.

Speaker 3

As import costs have come down, there have been minor impacts to some of our markets. That said, we are adeptly navigating these dynamics, operating in largely supply constrained environment and believe that the cement pricing story will remain positive in both the near and long term. And remember, our market based pricing decisions will coincide with our ongoing commercial synergy initiatives that include, among other things, working with customers to reset underpriced contracts to more market competitive rates. In both Aggregates and Cement, we will take the opportunity to see how forthcoming price realization plays out prior to incorporating these further pricing actions into our formal 2024 guidance. Regardless of what fraction looks like, we know that pricing will be the most positive lever available to us to offset sticky cost inflation and create sustainable profitable growth for our business.

Speaker 3

In combination with our commercial efforts, we expect our 2024 margins will benefit from operational improvements already underway across our network. Synergies in ready mix and cement, as Scott discussed, are flowing through quicker than originally modeled and represent just the tip of the iceberg on our integration plan. Now having been at the wheel for more than 3 months, we are in a position confidently call up our synergy target to at least $40,000,000 in 2024. This increase reflects 3 factors. First, and knock on wood, we have not uncovered any material negative surprises, a testament to our rigorous diligence process, as well as the transparency and strong partnership with the Argos team.

Speaker 3

2nd, the increase reflects a quicker implementation and adoption of the synergy playbook. And third, we have greater confidence and visibility to synergies revealed once we took ownership of the business earlier this year, namely greater aggregates pull through opportunities and commercial synergies. Our self help margin levers extend beyond the Argos combination. In fact, operational excellence within our aggregates line of business is a key value creation imperative on our path towards our 60% adjusted cash gross profit North Star target. This year, our OpEx team is pursuing aggressive productivity targets, recruiting talent and building towards a best in class operations organization and conducting more on-site continuous improvement events than ever before.

Speaker 3

Together, we expect these actions will lift our 2024 aggregates margins by percentage points and set us on our course towards greater per unit as well as overall profitability for our aggregates line of business. In summary, our 2024 outlook has improved versus our February perspective. Demand, while variable, is coming in as expected. Price remains the primary driver of organic top and bottom line growth, and we are uniquely positioned to deliver margin enhancement this year through meaningful synergy realization and through ongoing operational improvements across the enterprise. These three factors fuel our increased adjusted EBITDA guide to $990,000,000 at the midpoint and a reiteration that anticipate adjusted EBITDA margin between 23% 24% this year.

Speaker 3

In closing, the 4 near term priorities on Slide 15 will chart Summit's course this year: safely integrate and deliver on our synergy commitments accelerate profitable growth from aggregates both organically and inorganically, and effectively manage the balance sheet and cash flow to strengthen the portfolio and deliver superior returns to our shareholders. Thus far, we are adhering closely to these priorities and have a very strong Q1 to show for it with greater success ahead in 2024. With that, I'll ask the operator to provide the required Q and A instructions and then Scott and I would be happy to take your questions.

Operator

Our first question comes from Stanley Elliott from Stifel. Your line is now open.

Speaker 4

Good morning, everybody. Congratulations on the nice start to the year.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Adam.

Speaker 2

Curious if you guys could

Speaker 4

talk a little bit more about the demand outlook through the balance of the year, how you think all of this will come together? And at one point you had some commentary around kind of around interest rates and that maybe being a bit of a boost. I thought I heard that in the back half of the year.

Speaker 5

Just any sort of color

Speaker 4

on demand piece, I think, would be helpful. And then also, I guess, kind of how that leads into building out into next year? Thanks.

Speaker 3

Thanks for the question, Stanley. So, yes, let's kind of talk about demand across the board. I'll kind of hit our end markets is probably the best way to do that. Overall, I will say those comment is that our volumes that are baked into the guide are rather guarded. And I'll explain why.

Speaker 3

So as we go into residential, think about our residential volumes in the guide as being flat to down. And the reason for that is as we went into Q1 in residential, we had a lot of weather, particularly in Texas and Florida, which are heavy residential markets for us. And so there could be some recovery in that, but we're not baking that into our guide right now. If I step back then and look at kind of the national forecast on single family permits and starts, the forecast would say it's going up across on a national basis across the board. But as we've talked before, Stanley, it is really market by market as we look at our residential segment.

Speaker 3

And if I look at Houston, consistent with what we said last quarter, Houston continues to normalize, fortified by larger builders that can absorb interest rate shocks, great macro indicators and inventories that are around 3.8 months. So supply is still very low there. Salt Lake City is slower to come back as we predicted last quarter. I would say there though inventories are only at 2.3 months, but we're seeing some leading indicators that are strong where our large builders are at building developments. We also see our asphalt backlogs as being 3 times of what they were a year ago going into residential.

Speaker 3

So there's pent up demand in Salt Lake City, but I do think interest rates to your point need to come down a bit for that to pop completely. So we're rather guarded in volume recovery there. And then our other big market that I would say is Phoenix. With the Diamondback acquisition, we've been really holding on a lot more residential projects, which we're very positive about. And again, inventories are quite low there.

Speaker 3

Our permits are running above the national average there. But we're more in multifamily there, which will take a little longer to come in. Overall, on residential though, very bullish on it. If interest rates soften at all, you will see a pop in our volumes. There's absolutely no doubt.

Speaker 3

But in the guidance, we have kept it rather guarded at this point. Let's talk about nonresidential. So there, I would say, think about flat to down. And the things I would point to you that we're very encouraged in 2024 by the number of heavy nonresidential projects, particularly the publicly funded ones. So the energy verticals, your semiconductors and a big pickup in data centers.

Speaker 3

So we're holding a lot on those projects. We have a very rich and nicely diverse pipeline in that area. The area that we're looking at more carefully though is more the privately funded commercial. And I point you to 2 areas specifically in our footprint. So Salt Lake City is one of our, what I'd say is big box private commercial markets.

Speaker 3

There we're seeing some projects push to the second half. In Midland or at Mainland in British Columbia, had 2 large projects pushed into 2025, and that's purely a function of interest rates higher for longer. Overall, though, we're very bullish on this segment. We've said before, we're uniquely positioned with our materials led portfolio, which are both aggregates and cement intensive, and we're in the right geographies with plenty of land and space to support these projects. Public, the story is the same as I told you before.

Speaker 3

There we've got really high growth. The IIJA dollars are flowing with over $28,000,000,000 into our top 8 states since fiscal 2022. We're above the national average on contract highway and paving awards running at 21%, which is 11 percentage points above the national average in our top 8 states. Our states are really, really strong from a DOT perspective, 16% up year over year, which is 12% above the national average. And more importantly, our backlogs are strong.

Speaker 3

So there we're saying in Texas and in our Colorado region, we're seeing really strong performance. And so we'd say mid single digit plus, and I'd say that's kind of conservative. So overall, if I step back from what we talked about, you're absolutely correct. Interest rates would boost us. We're pushed to the back half of our volumes, but we're not relying on that or stepping into that right now.

Speaker 3

I think next year, we are woefully under built in this country. Those private end markets have to pop at some point. So I would remain cautiously optimistic that next year we'd have a very strong year in those end markets.

Speaker 4

Perfect, Ann. Thanks so much. Best of luck.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Stanley.

Operator

Question comes from Trey Grooms from Stephens. Your line is now

Speaker 6

open. Hey, good morning everybody and congrats on the great results and the margins in the quarter. So my first sure. My question is, well, I have several, but I'm just going hit on the pricing and cement. You had the January increases in your legacy markets and you clearly got some traction there.

Speaker 6

And you mentioned that you're out with some increases announced for April, I think, Mid Atlantic and Southeast, if I heard it right. Could you maybe give us any color on I know it's a little early, but any color on how those are coming along here a month or so into them? And just maybe how the reception has been there?

Speaker 3

Great. So cement pricing, clearly, as you're correct, Trey, we went with very strong pricing on our legacy Summit business as is traditional with us in the January price increase. We went out with $15 a tonne and we had as typical mixed receptivity on the lower part of our river and the upper part. So in the lower part of the river, which is more import exposed, small part of our revenue, but there it was marginal price realization. On the upper part in our more northern markets, we had very strong over 70% realization.

Speaker 3

Now if you really drill into our pricing and what you saw actually realized in our Q1 from our legacy Summit business, it was actually flat sequentially. And the reason that's not atypical for us because it's our lowest volume because all our plants are down. And there's so it's a lower volume quarter. On top of that, you had a mix effect because our northern markets had our higher pricing and of course, less volume. You hardly have any volume coming from that.

Speaker 3

And then the other factor I'd point to, the reason you're not seeing that big January price increase from the legacy Summit in Q1 is because our larger contract customers come into play more in Q2 and Q3. So we're very confident that pricing is going to roll through and we've had strong execution on the legacy Summit into Q2 and Q3. There were also some selective price increases on the legacy Argo side, but as we talked last quarter, they were less than we would have gone out with. That being said, the team have really stepped back to your point, Trey, they've looked at April price increases. They've gone out at about $4 to $6 a tonne, very surgical and selective customer market by market, and we're seeing some nice realization on that.

Speaker 3

So we're very optimistic at this point in time on that pricing sticking as we go throughout the year. That's not built fully into our guide at this point. We also have June 1 July 1 price increases that we're at as we go through the rest of the year. I will say if I step back on cement pricing overall, I describe it as a little bit of a messy year because we're trying to get our arms around customer market and really up the pricing. Moving forward, what you can expect on our cement price increasing is that you will see our value pricing, our commercial excellence, people, process and tools applied over those 6,000,000 tonnes, which will have a very positive effect on pricing in cement moving forward.

Speaker 3

In 2024, as I said in my prepared comments, we're saying, look, factor in mid single digits, but understand we have not factored into that the April and midyear price increases that were out there really executing very well on that. We're very confident in our ability to do that because if we look at the markets overall, they're still largely supply constrained and customers recognize the value that we bring in these cement investments that we're bringing to the market. So overall positive on cement pricing as we move throughout the year and think about the mid single digit as a floor to pricing, Trey.

Speaker 6

Yes. Got it. And just for a little bit of clarity on that comment a minute ago, on the June July increases that you said are out there in some select market, Are those more kind of legacy markets or are those more your kind of newer markets gained with Argos?

Speaker 3

Yes. So good question, Trey. So it's the legacy are mainly what we're talking about there on the June market. So some of these larger contracts you've heard us talk about that were underpriced relative to market are rolling off contracts. So we're actively working on those as we go through the 1st 12 to 18 months of our ownership basically of the Arcos assets.

Speaker 3

As is traditional with the Summit business, we will be opportunistic in going for mid year price increases. And all indications we have right now is that second half would be where demand would pick up in cement, and that's where we would be very opportunistic in going on across the entire legacy Summit and legacy Arcos business for July price increases.

Speaker 6

Got it. That's all great color. Thanks, Ann.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Trey.

Operator

Question comes from Anthony Pettinari from Citi. Your line is now open.

Speaker 5

Good morning. Hey, just following up on Trey's question on cement pricing. You also you talked about some markets where imports have had an impact and you talked about southern part of the river. Just wondering if there's any more kind of color you can give there in terms of the acquired Argos markets and to what extent imports had an impact in the quarter?

Speaker 3

Sure. So, overall, we said this last year and going into this year that import pricing in general is down. The other factor that I would say is that our footprint overall, both Summit and legacy Argos, is quite lowly import exposed. Where our exposure exists, Anthony, is in Louisiana, so the Gulf, it's in Houston and to a much lesser extent in Florida. So we're not heavily import exposed as a business, which is the beauty of this combination.

Speaker 3

Where we are, our team has done a superb job of navigating those conditions, deploying value pricing, really delivering and focusing on our quality of the product that we bring. And frankly, customers there, the larger customers value the fact that when supply demand dynamics get tight, Summit is the domestic producer in those markets, and we will continue to have high quality products. So we've not seen a very large impact, but you see it in the range that we give you on cement pricing, particularly I spoke about it in the legacy Summit business for marginal price realization in Louisiana. But to put that in perspective, on the legacy Summit business, that's about 5% of our revenue. The vast majority of our business is in the Northern markets, so not a major impact for us.

Speaker 5

Okay. Okay. That's very helpful. And as you look at freight rates and shipping times, I mean, any view in terms of whether that import pressure is increasing or lessening or consistent with what you thought going forward?

Speaker 3

Yes. I think it's pretty much consistent. It's behaving exactly as we thought, frankly. We're definitely not seeing it increasing. And as I point out in my comments to Trey, in the second half, we see really volumes being much tighter on cement and especially if interest rates pop, that import impact will be much less.

Speaker 3

So there might be some as we come into the year, we said some people had some import volumes they brought in, some of the producers, and that's kind of being used. I think about it as that being basically run down here in Q1 and in the first half, but I don't see it as being a major impact on our particularly on Summit's 2024 results.

Speaker 5

Okay. That's very helpful. I'll turn it over.

Operator

Our next question comes from Garik Shmois from Loop Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

Speaker 7

Hi, thanks for having me on. Just wanted to ask, just stepping back, how you're thinking about the full year guidance? You took up the low end after a very strong 1Q. You have a couple of things in the works here with better synergies. Maybe there's some additional pricing that's not baked in your guidance.

Speaker 7

And then historically, 1Q has been about 10% of your full year EBITDA, not perfect, but that's been the historical run rate. So just curious as to how you're thinking about the guide this year, perhaps why you didn't take the upper end of the range higher? And is there anything holding you back from potentially having a more bullish outlook than you offered up today?

Speaker 3

Thanks for the question, Garik. So let's kind of get grounded on the numbers a little bit first. I think that would be helpful. So we last when we reported last, we put our Q1 guidance at about $98,000,000 of EBITDA. We see the beat on that at about say $22,000,000 of EBITDA.

Speaker 3

We added to your $10,000,000 of synergies in there. And as you look at that number, we've been very active on the portfolio optimization end. So take a negative $10,000,000 net on EBITDA of divestitures and acquisition. So that leaves us with about $12,000,000 we didn't bake into the guide. Well, you might call that conservative.

Speaker 3

It's really very consistent with what we've always done. Our planning stance has always been for the Q1, our lowest quarter in the year, not to get out ahead of our skis. This team has consistently under promised and over delivered and we're not going to go away from that stance. So call it conservatism. What we factor in that conservatism is around this is a big year of integration.

Speaker 3

While it's going phenomenally well and I'm extremely proud of our team and how they're executing. Things happen on integrations. I don't see anything. I have not seen any negative surprises, but there's always that potential. The other thing I'd say is costs, we expect them to basically moderate off, but we're not seeing that yet.

Speaker 3

And we pointed out some variability in end markets that we haven't leaned into, even though we feel we're cautiously optimistic they'll be good. So that will give you some context around how we put the guide together. Let me kind of then move to where we really see 2024 from our perspective and how our team is acting against 2024. I see this guide as not only achievable, but beatable. I also would point to the fact that, like I said last quarter, think about skewing up into the right.

Speaker 3

And what drives that to your point, Garik, is we have not put in on midyear price increases. And we have very constructive pricing environments in both cement and aggregates. So that's a definite upside. And then the other point we talked about is this variability on private end markets in particular. We feel we're cautiously optimistic that interest rates will soften and that would give us we have a very low volume guide in here.

Speaker 3

And so any pop in volume at all is going to push us up into the right. Bottom line is we view ourselves as a $1,000,000,000 plus EBITDA business and we have a lot of confidence in delivering tremendous growth on both profit and margin expansion to our shareholders in 2024.

Speaker 7

That makes sense. Thanks for all that. I'll pass it on. Thanks, Garik.

Operator

Our next question comes from Adnan Pohlheimer from Thompson. Your line is now open.

Speaker 2

Hey, good morning, guys. Great quarter.

Speaker 1

Hi,

Speaker 2

Adam. Garik just asked the only question that mattered. So I got to go down the list here. What's your G and A outlook for the rest of the year?

Speaker 3

Scott, you want to take that one? Sure,

Speaker 1

Adam. We had a good start on G and A. That was part of our synergy plan to really take out some cost on the G and A side. You will see it build some in the rest of the quarters of the year. We are building out capabilities on the operational excellence side.

Speaker 1

And so there's some cost there. So you are going to see that come up some. We but overall that 8% and we're working on that pathway to 7% of revenue. So we'll continue to take advantage of the scale that we're getting on part of this transaction. But certainly off to a good start.

Speaker 1

We're seeing the effects early on here of some of the decisions we made.

Speaker 2

Okay. Sounds good. Thanks.

Operator

Our next question comes from Kathryn Thompson from Thompson Research Group. Your line is now open.

Speaker 3

Hi. Thank you

Speaker 8

for taking my question today. This is a bigger picture question on the Smith business. And really it's around managing cost over the near and long term. So in other words, not just necessarily 2024. A couple of different factors.

Speaker 8

You have news of current administration further regulating and shutting down coal fired plants, which is going to impact access to fly ash in the eastern part of the U. S. And alongside that, just the, sort of parabolic demand for utility needs with to meet growing AI demands. This all impacts the cost structure overall for cement production. How does Summit approach managing these costs, including initiatives that you already have underway and those that you may undertake going forward?

Speaker 8

Thank you.

Speaker 3

Thanks for the question, Catherine. So what I'd say at a high level, and thanks for kind of asking a broader question here from that perspective. As you know, we have been very forward facing on ESG. And we view all of our actions on ESG as being very value accretive. And a lot of the programs that we're putting in place and why we're very confident getting bigger in cement is because we are leaders in this area.

Speaker 3

We're leaders in PLC. We're leaders in alternative fuel. We're totally committed to our carbon emissions reduction. What I would say to you is the U. S.

Speaker 3

Is a very different environment on regulation than is Europe. So the U. S. Tends to be much more predictable, works alongside industry to get to our carbon reduction targets. And we feel we're extremely well planned for that.

Speaker 3

Specific to your question on fly ash, we have been I will give you an example in our West region, we have very actively been replacing fly ash with a natural puzzle. And we have a number of our innovation efforts around replacing fly ash over time. And so we feel we're very well planned and supported on that. And we have a number of initiatives in that regard that will not increase our costs over time. We are actively doing it today in our West region.

Speaker 3

So I'd point that to you. Now can that increase over time? Potentially, yes. But I also believe that cement is a very valuable end product. And given that you have to invest in cement plants, our customers realize that.

Speaker 3

And I would have no doubt that we could pass that cost along and continue to expand our margins at Cement. If I understood your question, which I may not have on utilities and AI, I think it's more a demand picture for us, not a cost picture. From a data center perspective, these are very cement intensive and we believe that our footprint and our materials led strategy will allow us to continue to grow in that area and we see that as actually providing more volume and more pricing leverage in the future.

Speaker 8

Thanks very much.

Speaker 3

Hopefully that is answering the question, Catherine. Yes.

Operator

Our next question comes from Phil Ng from Jefferies. Your line is now open.

Speaker 9

Congrats on a really strong quarter, particularly on the margin side, I think, to both cement and aggregates. But my question is on aggregates. Strong margins in a seasonally slower quarter and yet some wet weather. So a big part of that was the improvement or actually relatively flattish type costs per ton. Scott, perhaps what were the key drivers there?

Speaker 9

And how do you kind of think about maintaining a pretty contained cost front through the year? And can you kind of build off of the margins you kind of delivered in 1Q on the aggregate side once again pretty impressive here?

Speaker 1

Yes, Phil. Glad you picked up on the cost. That is a focus for us. And right out of the gate this year, we said operational excellence. We've been going through side by side doing these continuous improvement projects.

Speaker 1

We dropped $15,000,000 to the bottom line last year. We're going to double down our efforts this year. We're building out those capabilities. We're very focused what we call as an STBC, subtotal variable cost, which is our unit cost per ton of aggregates produced. So you're going to see throughout the year, we're going to be very focused on just the efficiencies and it's side by side.

Speaker 1

When you got 230 quarries, there's a lot of sites to cover. But we're making good progress there. We're putting more resources to it. So you're going to see continued project progress on the cost side. And that's how we're countering that inflation.

Speaker 1

And then you picked up

Speaker 10

on the

Speaker 1

margins. Certainly, price is coming through, but with price and the cost relationship here, we're really going to see that margin this year expansion. So that's what we're excited about. As you saw, 51% cash gross profit margins is our LTM. We're back in the 50s.

Speaker 1

We ended last year at 49.9%. So we're moving in that direction toward that 60% North Star and we're going after it.

Speaker 9

Scott, any more color on the cost per ton guidance for this year for Ags and how that kind

Speaker 2

of plays out this year quarter by quarter?

Speaker 1

Well, I'll tell you this, Phil. We're going to try to hold our cost flat per ton. So we're going to try to offset that inflation. That's our goal. And so you'll see us working towards that endeavor throughout the year.

Speaker 3

Now I

Speaker 1

will tell you costs are not moderating as fast and you guys haven't asked me about the cost inflation outlook, but it's more of the same. We keep saying it's going to moderate and but it's been very gradual on that moderation. We came off of a 9.5% inflation cost factor last year and we're not coming down fast. We still are convicted it will moderate, but it's definitely probably going to be more the back half. So we do have some energy tailwind, but other than that, we're still facing some inflationary pressures.

Speaker 9

Okay. Appreciate the color.

Operator

Our next question comes from Brent Thielman from D. A. Davidson. Your line is now open.

Speaker 2

Hey, thanks. Appreciate it. Just wanted to level set back on aggregates. Is it the current view that you could still see a little pressure on volume, I guess, organic into the second quarter just as some of these kind of private sector headwinds linger for longer and then maybe you get some flattening out in the second half, I guess, relative to last year. I'm just trying to think about what is sort of embedded for the aggregates demand outlook kind of sequencing through

Speaker 3

the year? Yes. I think, Brent, you're right on there. So if I look at our full year on aggregates right now, we're kind of think about it as down in the guide low single digit. We could see a way to flat.

Speaker 3

But what's in the guide is basically that and that's we had a very rough Q1 with respect to weather in some of our aggregates intense businesses, and April was a bit wet. So I would say Q2, because we could still see some pressure on the volumes. 2nd half though you'll see some recovery on aggregates, no doubt our team has that built in. And that's driven really by our biggest part of our year is in Q2 and Q3. Q3 is our absolutely biggest quarter of the year and we're more an all season business moving forward.

Speaker 3

So definitely some second half improvement. And that's we haven't a lot built in there, though I will reinforce that to you in my comments to Stanley earlier. We do have some upside on volume that could potentially happen for two reasons. 1, if we catch up on some of this Q1 weather, that would help. But secondly, if we get any kind of relief on volume uptick in the private end markets with any kind of interest rate softening at all, we would see some volume pickup.

Speaker 3

But what's baked into our guide is pretty conservative right now.

Operator

Our next question comes from David MacGregor from Longbow Research. Your line is now

Speaker 1

open. Yes.

Speaker 2

Good morning, everyone, and thanks for taking the question.

Speaker 11

Anne, I wanted to go back to your comments around commercial opportunities, commercial synergies, and I realize that something you couldn't really get your arms around until you've closed the transaction and were able to sort of pull everybody together. Can you talk a little further about kind of your learnings there and why you're feeling more confident? Is there any way to size that opportunity just on a tentative basis, that would be helpful. And obviously, it's going to be big for 2025, but how significant could it be to 2024 in terms of its contribution and maybe what you've got in the guide?

Speaker 3

Yes. So David, one of the things when we brought the synergies up to 40,000,000 dollars the primary reason for that was our plants came up really fast and really well and OEE was running above by about 5%. In addition to that, the ready mix synergies are coming in. But to your point, we also got really confident because we saw specifically some ags pull through synergies that we hadn't anticipated in the original number. And specifically in Houston, just to give you anecdotal point here, Houston used to have 40% of pull through, it's now 69%.

Speaker 3

So that's significant, something we hadn't identified. The other commercial synergies I'd point you to and there's a multitude of these in our pipeline, but I'd point to cement, the pricing that we've talked about there. We didn't have our arms around that at the beginning. And if you recall on Investor Day, we brought that number up, that synergy number up. And the reason for that was we said, look, we got all these underpriced, we've got 3 buckets.

Speaker 3

One of contracts that were done as part of divestitures that are below market. We had larger customers that have more leverage on Argos as a standalone unit. Those two buckets alone were below market by about $10 a tonne. And so think about those at about 15% of our volumes. So we said, hey, those cement synergies are going to be $20,000,000 to $25,000,000 About half of those of the $10,000,000 to $12,000,000 is coming from increased commercial synergies.

Speaker 3

So that's a big chunk of it. And as I referenced in my comment to Trey about these April, June, July increases, we're going after those write down. We're pretty confident in our ability to deliver on the pricing. There's a load of other commercial synergies. If you were to think about procurement, we're getting a lot of those as well.

Speaker 3

The teams are identifying this pipeline every day. So I get more and more encouraged. And Scott, maybe you want to talk a little bit about the cadence of the synergies, that $40,000,000 in $24,000,000 to give David a little bit more.

Speaker 1

Yes, David. When you think about that pace of the $40,000,000 Anne mentioned we're getting really good traction. But while we're getting good traction on the synergies, I will say more weighted towards that back half, the second half of the year. It's just going to take some time for these synergies to really drive through to the results. So I wouldn't expect half of them in June.

Speaker 1

We will give in the second quarter results, we will give you an update on the synergies, but I would expect less than half in the 1st year, and then building as we move out through the year.

Speaker 3

Yes. We're seeing also the combined footprint, David, this exposure of adding our ags business with cement and ready mix, we're seeing some real customer interest in where we play now and the portfolio that we have. And we'll give more color on that as we proceed throughout the year.

Speaker 11

Great. Good colors. Thanks and congrats on all the progress.

Speaker 3

Thanks David.

Operator

Our next question comes from Jerry Revich from Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.

Speaker 10

Yes. Hi. Good morning, everyone, and congratulations on the strong quarter. I want to ask on the Argos Cement business, really phenomenal margins in the quarter of 35% EBITDA. Your standalone business last year was 38% and 35% in the seasonally weakest quarter has really jumped out of me.

Speaker 10

I'm wondering, could you just talk about how you expect the sequential margin cadence to play out in cementosargos from here, just the cement part of the business? And were there any moving pieces that surprised you in the outstanding Q1 margin performance for the acquired cement business?

Speaker 1

Yes. Jerry, let me start. When you talk about the margins, we are focused on the EBITDA margins. We've got a North Star target on the cement of 45%. So we feel like we're just getting started on that journey.

Speaker 1

When we added the Argos assets, it did dilute us. They were closer to that 35% where we were up there you had mentioned more than 38% to 39%, well on our way to that 40%. And so out of the gate, it's really about these operating get these plants to operating performance. We're investing in them. We're working on the cost side of the business.

Speaker 1

If we can take cost out of these plants, Ann's already talked about the pricing and the momentum we have there. So that will continue. And the cement margins, we think there's a lot of opportunity as we will build in our processes into these new Argos plants and on our way to that 45%.

Speaker 10

Super. And Scott, can I ask a follow-up from an accounting standpoint with the higher synergy numbers and the better performance out of the gate? It sounds like some of the balance sheet numbers related to the acquisition moved out moved around. It sounds like depreciation moved up, goodwill moved down. I'm wondering, can you just expand on that because that's a good indicator for how the performance is tracking?

Speaker 1

Yes, I will tell you on the purchase accounting side, Jerry, we just it's very standard. You go through in an acquisition like this, you got to revalue everything. So once they did their appraisals, we got all the outside appraisals and the values put in, it did move from where their book values were. It did move up. These plants were more valuable than what they had them on the books.

Speaker 1

And so anytime you reset that value, you reset your depreciation figure. So that's driving the increase in the DD and A that you saw from the $330,000,000 to $380,000,000

Speaker 3

and it's

Speaker 1

just it's pretty standard. And then the goodwill at $700,000,000 dollars pretty expected with the base of synergies we have. We feel pretty good about that as well.

Speaker 10

Super. Thank you.

Operator

I'd now like to hand back over to Anne as we don't have any questions right now. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Great. Thank you. We appreciate everyone's time and attention on today's call. Our impressive results and our upgraded 2024 outlook underscore that Summit Materials is operating at a very high level with strong coordination and strategic focus across our businesses. I would reiterate that conditions exist for a strong margin and EBITDA growth this year.

Speaker 3

Commercial excellence and value pricing being the primary growth driver. But cost moderation and material cost savings via synergies and operational improvements will also contribute positively to our 2024 growth plans. And when you consider our capacity to add ags oriented targets to our portfolio, we have plenty of optimism around 2024. We are positioned and confident we can deliver superior value creation for all Summit stakeholders, and we hope you share our optimism for the year ahead. Thank you for your continued support of Summit Materials, and we hope you have a great day.

Operator

Thank you so much for attending today's conference call. We hope you have a wonderful day. Stay safe.

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Earnings Conference Call
Summit Materials Q1 2024
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