Modine Manufacturing Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
May 22, 2024

There are 9 speakers on the call.

Operator

morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Modine's 4th Quarter and Fiscal Year 20 24 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session. Instructions will follow at that time. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

Operator

I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Ms. Kathy Powers, Vice President, Treasurer and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Hello, and good morning. Welcome to our conference call to discuss Modine's 4th quarter and full year fiscal 2024 results. I'm joined by Neil Brinker, our President and Chief Executive Officer and Mick Lucarelli, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. The slides that we will be using for today's presentation are available on the Investor Relations section of our website, modine.com. On Slide 3 of that deck is our notice regarding forward looking statements.

Speaker 1

This call will contain forward looking statements as outlined in our earnings release as well as in our company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. With that, I will turn the call over to Neil.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Kathy, and good morning, everyone. This was an important year in our transformation where our plans became actions and we delivered results. Our strong Q4 performance closed out another record year for Modine with the highest reported sales and adjusted EBITDA in our history for the 2nd year in a row. Our sales were up 5% to $2,400,000,000 and more importantly, adjusted EBITDA increased by 48% to 314,000,000 dollars This equates to a 13.1 percent adjusted EBITDA margin for the full fiscal year and underscores the step change in profitability that our commitment to Eightytwenty has produced. We have shifted our business mix to targeted markets with strong growth drivers where our products and solutions are well positioned and carry sustainable margins.

Speaker 2

This was demonstrated through both acquisitions and divestitures during the year, including 2 acquisitions completed in the Q4, the assets of TMG Core, a liquid immersion cooling technology for data centers that we discussed last quarter and Scott Springfield, a manufacturer of air handling units for data centers and other strategic applications. We also executed 2 important divestitures during fiscal 2024, including the sale of 3 automotive businesses in Germany that manufactured parts principally for the internal combustion engine in the European market as well as 2 coatings aftermarket businesses here in the U. S. These actions fit squarely within our strategy of focusing on innovative engineering solutions and investing in our most attractive end markets to help us achieve our long term margin targets. Mick will cover our 4th quarter financial results and provide our outlook for fiscal 'twenty five, but first, I'd like to reflect on some of our accomplishments over the past year.

Speaker 2

Please turn to Slide 5. Climate Solutions reported another outstanding year. The segment delivered a 31% increase in adjusted EBITDA and a 4% increase in sales, resulting in a 370 basis point improvement in adjusted EBITDA margin to 18.3%. Sales growth in the segment was driven by data centers, which were up 69% to $294,000,000 at the top end of our expected range. We have made several investments in this market this year, including TMG Core and Scott Springfield.

Speaker 2

Scott Springfield is a great strategic fit for Modine and our Climate Solutions segment. Their manufacturing operations are in Calgary with 2 locations, one dedicated to data center products, which we are integrating into our data center vertical and the other supporting custom air handling units for other end markets such as healthcare, which we're integrating into our HVAC and R vertical. Perhaps most importantly for our data center business, Scott Springfield brought us a complementary cooling technology and a strong customer base. In addition, it also brought a strategic relationship with a new hyperscaler customer, accelerating our ability to broaden and diversify our customer base. We have secured additional manufacturing capacity in Calgary to support our expected growth of this business, more than doubling the output potential.

Speaker 2

In addition, we recently announced that we secured a new manufacturing site for data center cooling products in Bradford, U. K, which will also include a new state of the art R and D test center. This brings our total number of data center manufacturing locations to 9 and represents a doubling of our potential capacity from where we were at the beginning of the past fiscal year. Given the current level of our backlog and active pipeline, this additional capacity will ensure we will be able to meet our customers' commitments and future growth projections. Our other businesses within the Climate Solutions segment also performed well this past year.

Speaker 2

Despite a 15% revenue decline, our Heat Transfer Products business significantly improved EBITDA margins through eightytwenty actions, contributing to the overall improvement of the segment. Looking forward, Climate Solutions is focused on executing organic growth opportunities, while integrating and building synergies with their acquired businesses. In addition, we will continue to target smaller inorganic growth opportunities to fill product and technology gaps. This team is executing at a high level, and I have confidence that they will continue to meet and exceed their targets. Please turn to Page 6.

Speaker 2

The Performance Technologies segment also had a fantastic year, reporting a 67% increase in adjusted EBITDA and a 5% increase in sales, resulting in 4 50 basis point improvement and adjusted EBITDA margin to 12.1%. This performance was largely a product of advancing eightytwenty throughout the organization from high level commercial activities down to the factory floor. We have improved our sales mix by focusing resources on strategic product lines and deemphasizing and divesting lower margin business. The transformation of this portfolio is still underway, but we have a greater understanding of the profit drivers and have identified and are supporting those markets where we have strong to perform well with our Advanced Thermal Systems group having added 16 new programs, representing over $40,000,000 of incremental peak annual revenue this year. Overall revenues grew 25%.

Speaker 2

Our air and liquid cooling verticals were relatively flat on the top line, largely due to the divestitures of the German automotive plants in Q3. We are making progress consolidating our technical services, testing and tooling operations, and we expect this to be mostly completed by the end of this quarter. The PT segment made significant strides against their strategic objectives this year, but still have much work ahead. Segment will remain focused on driving favorable changes to their sales mix as they explore new applications for their products in support of energy transition and promote further attrition of the portfolio through product exits and divestitures. I'm very pleased with how the business performed this year and I'm equally encouraged about what lies ahead.

Speaker 2

We are leaders in thermal management solutions and we are finding newer and better ways to apply our technology. We are investing for the future, while leveraging our strengths and using eightytwenty to guide our decisions. This is leading to improved customer relationships and new opportunities to build a stronger Modine. With that, I will turn the call over to Mick.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Neil, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to Slide 7 to review the segment results. Climate Solutions finished the year with another excellent quarter, resulting in a 14% adjusted EBITDA improvement. Our focus and resource shift to the data center market continues to pay off, driving strong revenue growth and higher segment earnings. Data center sales grew 40% or $25,000,000 driven by strong demand from both hyperscale and colocation customers.

Speaker 3

E transfer product sales were down 20% or $24,000,000 The decline was generally in line with our expectations, continuing the trend from the past few quarters. The lower revenue was driven by a combination of eightytwenty activities along with lower demand in certain commercial and residential markets, including a soft European heat pump market. HVAC and R sales increased 1% or $1,000,000 including revenue from our acquired businesses. Heating revenues were slightly up from prior year offset by a decline in commercial refrigeration coolers. We're very pleased with Climate Solutions' strong earnings conversion, resulting in a 2 10 basis point margin improvement in adjusted EBITDA to 18%.

Speaker 3

Despite relatively flat sales, our eightytwenty discipline remains at the heart of these quarterly margin improvements, including a positive mix impact with data center sales driving a meaningful margin increase. This quarter wrapped up another great year for Climate Solutions. We anticipate more revenue and earnings growth ahead, including the positive impact from Performance Technologies also had another great quarter with a 38% increase in adjusted EBITDA. Revenue decreased 5% driven by the recent German divestitures and lower sales of automotive product, partially offset by higher sales to off highway and specialty vehicle customers. The negative sales impact due to divestitures in the quarter was $24,000,000 and organic sales grew 2%.

Speaker 3

Performance Technologies remains very focused on improving earnings and margins versus revenue growth, which came through clearly again this quarter. Advanced Solutions sales were up 15% or $6,000,000 with growth of the eVantage product, including higher sales to commercial and specialty vehicle customers. Liquid Cool application sales decreased 13% or $18,000,000 mainly due to the divestitures and lower auto sales in Europe and Asia. Lastly, air cooled application sales decreased 2% or 4,000,000 activities. As we've discussed strategically in the past, Performance Technologies will continue reducing and exiting targeted areas to drive higher earnings, while redeploying resources to future growth businesses.

Speaker 3

As a result, their earnings conversion was excellent to finish the year, resulting in a 13.4% adjusted EBITDA margin, a 430 basis point improvement. To wrap up the year, we achieved significant earnings improvement fiscal year. Now let's review total company results. Please turn to Slide 9. As we move on to the total company results, I think it's important that I review how the numbers align with our transformation and the eightytwenty journey.

Speaker 3

A key element of eightytwenty is to focus on and prioritize those areas that drive the majority of the value, while deemphasizing other areas. Returning businesses. This also means that we're not focused on driving total revenue growth. Instead, we're targeting revenue growth in certain areas while deemphasizing others. It's in this eightytwenty methodology that's allowed us to increase adjusted EBITDA by 48% on a relatively small increase in total revenue in fiscal 2024.

Speaker 3

This is why we remain focused on margins and earnings over top line revenue. With that said, 4th quarter sales declined 2%, driven by planned eightytwenty activities and divestitures with $24,000,000 of the decline tied to the divestitures. Our gross margin improved 4 20 basis points benefiting from the eightytwenty initiatives and actions along with lower commodity costs. SG and A increased $15,000,000 driven by higher employee compensation expenses, including $2,500,000 tied to recent acquisitions and transaction related costs. Adjusted EBITDA was strong again this quarter with an increase of 20% or 13,000,000 dollars The adjusted EBITDA margin was 13.1%, a 2 50 basis point improvement from the prior year.

Speaker 3

This now represents the 9th consecutive quarter of year over year margin improvement. In addition, adjusted earnings per share was $0.77 15% higher than the prior year. Please note, earnings per share on a GAAP basis was $0.48 which was $1.21 lower than the prior year. The decrease was due to the reversal of a tax valuation allowance, which resulted in an income tax benefit of $57,000,000 in the prior year's Q4. We're pleased with another exceptional quarter resulting in a full year EBITDA margin that ended above our targeted transformation range that we established more than 2 years ago.

Speaker 3

Now moving to cash flow metrics. Please turn to Slide 10. We generated $127,000,000 of free cash flow during fiscal 2024. This represents 5.3 percent of sales and an improvement of $70,000,000 compared to the prior year. CapEx was higher than we previously anticipated, primarily due to the recent purchase of the new UK manufacturing facility to support additional data center growth.

Speaker 3

Net debt of $372,000,000 was $86,000,000 higher than the prior fiscal year and $188,000,000 higher than last quarter. This was largely due to our acquisition of Scott Springfield Manufacturing during the quarter. Our leverage ratio increased from 0.7 to 1.2 during the quarter due to the acquisition. We funded a large number of growth initiatives and acquisitions during fiscal 2024, but ended the year with a lower leverage ratio than when we started. As a result, we remain in a great position to support more organic growth and acquisition initiatives.

Speaker 3

Now let's turn to Slide 11 for our fiscal 2025 outlook. I'm pleased to share our current fiscal 2025 outlook, which shows further progress towards our long term financial targets. We're expecting a recovery in some of our key HVAC in our markets and continued strong growth in data centers. We're expecting slightly lower sales in Performance Technologies due to the divestitures and eightytwenty related product rationalization in the areas we've chosen to deemphasize. Overall, we expect total company sales to grow in the range of 5% to 10%.

Speaker 3

In the Climate Solutions segment, we expect data center sales to grow 60% to 70%. This includes both organic growth and the positive impact from our recent acquisitions. Moving to HVAC and R, we expect sales to improve this fiscal year growing 20% to 25% following a relatively flat year. This will be driven by growth in indoor air quality, which also benefits from our recent acquisitions along with the further recovery in heating and refrigeration cooler markets. For heat transfer products, we expect sales growth in the range of 3% to 5% following a down year.

Speaker 3

For Performance Technologies, we expect advanced solutions growth in the 20% to 30% range, driven by new program launches. We expect a decline in sales in liquid cooled products, driven by the remaining impact of the German divestitures and further attrition of non strategic business. Our air cool business will also be impacted by the divestitures, but that will be offset by targeted growth in strategic off highway and power generation markets. Overall, we're planning on slightly lower sales in Performance Technologies, but this is consistent with our long term strategy and expect significant improvement in EBITDA dollars and margin. Before moving to the earnings outlook, I'd like to announce an organizational products to Climate Solutions and will report coating sales within heat transfer products going forward.

Speaker 3

Previously, the coatings was managed by Performance Technologies and reported within Advanced Solutions. The financial impact will be minimal to the segment results. In terms of revenue for fiscal 2024, sales in our coatings business were $53,000,000 Now moving to our earnings outlook. We expect fiscal 2025 adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $365,000,000 to $385,000,000 Using the midpoint of the range would result in a nearly 20% increase and another year of rapid earnings growth. In addition, we anticipate another year of good cash flow and expect we'll generate a similar level of free cash flow in fiscal 2025.

Speaker 3

As part of our cash flow outlook, we anticipate fiscal 2025 capital spending to be in line with the prior year. Given the relatively complex purchase accounting for our acquisitions, we would like to provide some EPS guidance.

Speaker 4

As part

Speaker 3

of the accounting treatment for the Scott Springfield acquisition, we're doing a typical adjustment for all asset values, which will result in a higher non cash depreciation and amortization expense. Based on our current outlook and the purchase accounting items, we're expecting adjusted EPS to be in the range of $3.55 to $3.85 This reflects the key assumptions for interest expense, taxes and amortization and depreciation expense, including impacts from the acquisition of Scott Springfield. Please note that these assumptions are summarized in the appendices attached to this presentation and our press release. To wrap up, we're extremely pleased with the results from the Q4 and the fiscal year. We've clearly demonstrated momentum towards our longer term financial targets and look forward to the upcoming fiscal year.

Speaker 3

We plan to hold an Analyst and Investor Day event later this year at our headquarters and additional information on that event will be available soon. With that, Neil and I will take your questions.

Operator

Thank you. Our first question is from Chris Moore with CJS Securities. Please proceed.

Speaker 5

Hey, good morning guys. Thanks for taking a couple of questions. All right. Maybe we could start, just talk a little bit further on data centers. As you guys, I think, have discussed at this point in time, all of current revenues on the air cooled side.

Speaker 5

On the liquid cooling front, you have the ongoing development efforts, both direct to chip cooling and emerging cooling. Can you talk a little bit about the critical milestones over the next, say, 12 to 18 months, where that would put you some time in calendar 25?

Speaker 4

Yes. Good question, Chris. Thanks for that. This is Neil. Certainly, we have seen growth in the markets in data center around direct cooling and now with the addition of Scott Springfield that adds a new technology with evaporative cooling that has been in the industry for some time that may or may not support or augment liquid cooling.

Speaker 4

But certainly for standard data centers, you need that product line. And we're gaining market capture there. So that's significant. That's where we're seeing the expansion in the United States and some of the expansions that we've done in Europe, start to support the growth on market capture, driven by or not by liquid cooling. So that's been that has been a milestone for us building out the capacity so that we can continue to gain share.

Speaker 4

The other milestone is where we know it's tied directly to liquid cooling, whether that's direct to chip, single phase or 2 phase liquid cooling immersion. And we the acquisition of the TMG assets will help us be at the table having conversations with our data center customers for future data center generations that may adopt those technologies. So that's a milestone to be able to have those products and technologies to have conversations about the future. And then our CDU development, which I believe is right around the corner for direct to chip with adoption in the market, we're in the process of developing that product. And when we launched that with a select few customers by the end of the fiscal year, that would be a milestone.

Speaker 4

So capacity expansion, setting ourselves up for success, continuing to win with our customers, over serving our customers and providing them with the products and services that we provide. And then having the technologies in terms of direct to chip and full immersion cooling that we can have conversations about future data centers with our most important customers.

Speaker 5

Got it. Very helpful. And maybe just another way to look at it. From the air cooling perspective, I'm just trying to get a sense for the runway there. Obviously, we're talking about huge growth here.

Speaker 5

I mean, is there any reason to think growth slows data center wise in 3 or 4 years from now? I'm just trying to understand if everything is shifting towards liquid or air growth is going to be there significantly and liquids coming as well.

Speaker 4

We believe, Chris, it's a matter of both. You don't necessarily need liquid cooling for everything. And we also see, in most cases, was we're working with our customers and watching the trends in the industry that, air often augments liquid. So there's a desire for both technologies.

Speaker 5

Got it. Very helpful. Maybe just my last one. I know at the Investor Day, that was feels like a long time ago. We're talking about $400,000,000 to $600,000,000 in M and A between $24,000,000 and $26,000,000 Obviously, between what you guys have done already on the M and A side and also in terms of kind of the more organic growth, aren't going to need to get to that level.

Speaker 5

Can you talk a little bit more about M and A thoughts? And is there a revenue target moving forward? Or just kind of how you're looking at this stage?

Speaker 3

Yes. Hey, Chris, it's Vic. Yes, I think from the original targets we laid out 2.5 years ago, you're right. Clearly, we don't see the need to have as large of a M and A funnel versus where we thought we need to be to maybe address some of the planned product line down. So through a lot of good work in margin improvement and other growth areas organically, we found that definitely come down.

Speaker 3

I think we don't have a firm target. We will try to provide updated guidance for you on that in the fall. But Neil and I have been pretty consistent that I think now the sweet spot we're looking at on our kind of the smaller to midsized transactions, probably more in the Scott Springfield size that we think are right down the middle of the road for us. But no, we don't need a lot of M and A. We don't need large M and A to hit our financial targets.

Speaker 3

So we're being pretty selective here about what we choose to bolt on.

Speaker 5

Got it. Very helpful. I'll jump back in line. Thanks everybody.

Operator

Our next question is from Noah Kaye with Oppenheimer and Company. Please proceed.

Speaker 6

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. Maybe we can start with margins. Certainly margin improvement happening faster than consensus across both segments. Can we maybe understand the margin expectations embedded in the 2025 guide at a segment level if possible and any considerations around cadence?

Speaker 6

And is it also possible magnitude of divestitures embedded in the guide?

Speaker 4

Yes, sure. It's Nik.

Speaker 3

So if you look at our guidance in the range where if you kind of go to the midpoint that's kind of putting that around 14.5% or so tight EBITDA margin. And clearly, we're continuing to expect another sizable increase. As we've really talked about that all year, we would expect fiscal 2025 for Performance Technologies to have a nice lift, call it another 200 basis points or so goal there. From a Climate Solutions side, we are expecting a margin improvement, but on the smaller side. And again, we've been pretty consistent about this after the 1st year or 2 in launching Eightytwenty First in Climate Solutions.

Speaker 3

So we're thinking there is more of maybe like a 50 basis point per year plus or minus lift from a margin standpoint. From a divestitures and product exit, we're on the PT side, it's probably around 100,000,000 dollars On the divestiture side, it's a smaller portion of that. We originally announced the divestitures last year about $80,000,000 or $90,000,000 run rate. And so we have a partial year impact of that, plus we've got just ongoing product rationalization efforts. So I would say probably around $100,000,000 on Performance Technologies in terms of divestitures and product line exits.

Speaker 6

Extremely clear. Thanks. Before I get to data center, I want to just ask around free cash flow. I'm trying to do the walk here. You commented to sort of a similar level of free cash flow year over year.

Speaker 6

Just help us understand the free cash flow walk because I mean if EBITDA is up call it $60 plus 1,000,000 at the midpoint year over year and you've got what looks to be about $15,000,000 potentially or so higher tax and feel free to check my math and a little bit higher interest expense. Seems like free cash flow should grow, especially given CapEx level. So help us understand what would be going on with the free cash flow conversion. Your working capital was a build this year as well.

Speaker 3

Yes, good question. I thought it'd be a good chance to add more color on the call for that. So I mentioned similar level. Our goal is, I would say, we want to meet or beat the free cash we did last year. The drivers that are some headwinds, so why wouldn't it just be up in line with earnings is that quite a few number of items.

Speaker 3

I'll just kind of hit the high points for you. There's from the incentive comp point that's accrued during the year. The cash payouts will be this year. So there's going to be a higher cash payout for incentive comp. Also, we have some flexibility.

Speaker 3

It's early that typical pension contribution can be in the $10,000,000 to $15,000,000 range. So we plan the year at the higher end on a pension contribution, little bit higher interest he talked about. We also announced restructuring in Europe and we'll have some higher cash payments from a restructuring side. And then so all those combined are probably at least $30,000,000 to $40,000,000 And then the other kind of wildcard we see from year to year on the data center side, it depends on the customer and the program, is at times we get cash advances tied to major builds and that can have an impact and or just the amount of inventory will carry based on a large potential data center build out. So again, I think our goal here, right, is to meet or beat the last year's number, but clearly, there's just some timing of cash flow items that you should build into your model as well.

Speaker 3

Hope that answers your question.

Speaker 6

Comprehensively, yes. Thanks. And to bring

Speaker 4

it to data

Speaker 6

center at the end there, I think, Neil, you commented in the prepared remarks around a doubling of capacity versus last year. One, I just want to make sure we probably understood that comment in terms of how to think about revenue capacity now across the business? Because certainly, if we look at the midpoint of where you think data could be on revenue this year, it's more than doubling of where you ended fiscal 2023. And maybe just how we think about organic growth versus M and A in the data center vertical?

Speaker 4

Yes, that's right. We have added additional capacity in that space. Part of that is through the inorganic growth, adding multiple facilities through the Scott Springfield expansion and acquisition. We put out a press release where we acquired an additional facility in Bradford, UK, which helps us set up for our strategy to have dedicated plants for specific equipment for the EMEA market. With an intention of the long term strategy of building out capacity for $1,000,000,000 for example, no.

Speaker 3

Yes, question about organic growth too. We talked about 60% to 70% growth this year and that last year we wrapped up the year that we just closed was 69%, so another strong year. Within that organic growth right now, we probably have in kind of the 30% to 35% range. It's a little bit how we look at it. Clearly, since we've acquired Scott Springfield, the commercial synergies look to be really strong.

Speaker 3

So kind of splitting hairs of what's organic or inorganic. But I think it's safe to say for now, we're modeling about a 30%, 35 percent organic growth and then the balance is coming from the Scott Springfield acquisition.

Speaker 6

Thanks so much. I'll leave it there.

Operator

Our next question is from Matt Summerville with D. A. Davidson. Please proceed.

Speaker 7

Thanks. Couple of questions. So through SSM, you've added another hyperscale customer. I'd be curious as to where you stand with potentially adding additional hyperscale customers. I think, Neil, you'd indicated in the past you've been having some ongoing discussions.

Speaker 7

So maybe an update on that relationship cultivation and whether or not you're finding early days, I realize that finding that there's indeed cross selling opportunity between the cooling technology that SSM provides in your existing customer base and then your core cooling technology in their customer base?

Speaker 4

Yes, great question for sure, Matt. Thank you. This is Neil. We have seen that opportunity without a doubt. It's really difficult to pass the very stringent quality audits, safety audits and the process that you have to go through to win a large hyperscaler.

Speaker 4

And I have a lot of respect for how they do that in terms of how they pick the right suppliers. And when we acquired Scott Springfield, they had already passed those audits and they had already been certified as qualified supplier, which accelerated it for us for our cross selling opportunities on the other side of the on the Airedale side. So by acquiring that hyperscaler customer, because they already have the relationship with Scott Springfield, it really moves quickly on how you can be adopted and accepted with other products. So certainly there has been some cross selling opportunities, and we'll take advantage of that. We're in the process of having those conversations.

Speaker 4

So relative to the other hypers, yes, we are advancing conversations. The thing that's really been able to help us is we've got state of the art facilities, my opinion, it's best in class labs, that we've invested CapEx into where we can run very stringent tests and meet their requirements. So being able to bring the hyperscalers in that are outside of the 2 that we've been public about, they've been impressed with our facilities and it continues to the conversations continue to advance. So I feel very comfortable with where we're at with the other conversations because of our labs.

Speaker 7

Got it. And then with respect to the comment from an earlier question, just to make sure I understand, after this wave of capacity expansion, you feel that you will have the capability to if assuming demand is there have basically have $1,000,000,000 data center business. And I would imagine, don't know if maybe this is something that you'll address now or at your Analyst Day, but over what timeframe do you feel you can scale from, call it, roughly $500,000,000 this current fiscal year to that $1,000,000,000 type of number? Yes.

Speaker 4

It's a good question. So we're always looking at our strategic plan horizon and that's in that's years in terms of how we think about our strategic plan horizon. But you're right, the capacity expansion is a big piece. And it's not just the capacity expansion, Matt, it's also the technologies that we've acquired. So to support that 35% CAGR that we've been very public about, we knew that we needed to do the expansion with capacity.

Speaker 4

And it's not just more factories, it's factories in the right places, on the right in the right countries for delivery. And then the acquisition of new technologies like immersion cooling as well as evaporate cooling with Scott Spingfield. So multi pronged approach in terms of how we can get to a larger data center number long term.

Speaker 7

Got it. And then maybe, Mick, if you can comment a little bit, how should we be thinking about the quarterly earnings cadence as we move through the year? Is there anything unusual, I guess, you would want to point out as we think about how to model kind of quarterly numbers or how we should be thinking about first half versus second half? Any detailed color you could provide there would be helpful. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yes. Thanks, Matt. Yes, I'd like to say, it's our expectation is for kind of a normal year. Last year, I said that and we had some really big pricing wins to start the year. But as we look at it now, I'd say probably a typical Modine year and to helping everybody out, I think, clearly we expected to build each quarter.

Speaker 3

So generally we want Q4 would be our strongest and that's mainly going to be driven on revenue and program launches. So I would say Q4 would be from a top line our strongest and then Q1 and Q2 building. And then in there, our Q3, the December quarter is would probably be a little the lowest of the quarter. So kind of a Q1, Q2 ramp up, a little bit of a dip and that's seasonality. I point out the December quarter, it's pretty traditional on the performance technology side and large OE customers do a lot of plant shutdowns around thanks giving Christmas New Year.

Speaker 3

So that said early in the year nothing dramatic math that I would point out other than call it kind of a revenue build with a little bit of Q3 seasonal shutdown built in there.

Speaker 7

Got it. Thanks guys.

Operator

Our next question is from Brian Spunheimer with Gabelli Funds. Please proceed.

Speaker 8

Hey, good morning and congratulations on a great year. Obviously, market expectations along with maybe some dynamics with the tax bump from a year ago played a role today. But as we kind of look forward, I think it's worth maybe taking a look back. The business that had been for sale in the auto segment, how much of that remains of your revenues as you're looking into this fiscal year?

Speaker 3

Yes. In total, automotive is probably in the $300,000,000

Speaker 4

range, Brian.

Speaker 8

And so what portion of that I don't want to nitpick too much, but what portion of that was potentially going to be bought by the Tier 1 supplier you were going to sell it to?

Speaker 3

Yes. So that was when we launched the sale process that was over $500,000,000 between $500,000,000 $600,000,000 And I should say on the $300,000,000 it's probably $250,000,000 to $300,000,000 is what's left just to clarify on that. And then the other thing I want to point out is from when we started, it was not only the $500,000,000 to $600,000,000 but we are pretty transparent. I think we said low single digit EBITDA margin. The team has worked really hard.

Speaker 3

The remaining amount we have is clearly been a driver of Modine's results. So strategically, it's still not an area we're going to focus on putting capital into. But from a margin standpoint, it's helping us achieve our financial goals and targets versus a couple of years ago and is an absolute drain today.

Speaker 8

No, I think you answered my next question as to how strategic is this piece. But clearly, it's not the drag it once was. Next question kind of goes to the CapEx profile and whether this new, call it, dollars 85,000,000 of CapEx from a dollar perspective, does that look like more of a run rate going forward? Or are there just some bits and pieces that you named obviously, you named the facility that you purchased in order to in order to expand capacity. Is this more of a kind of a run rate as far as what you think for the next few years?

Speaker 8

Yes.

Speaker 3

I think the, a little bit like the cash flow. I said a similar level this year, Brian. I think that's going to be on the high end. I wanted to make sure I set a bar that I could see it in line, but probably a little bit on the high end and what's going on there, which is important. So probably we had a couple of years around $70 I'd say probably in a dollar value for now.

Speaker 3

Dollars 70 to $80 is what I'd say is probably more of a normal. And the other thing I would point out and you know this, like, if you go back to when we were trying to sell auto, we were $80,000,000 or $90,000,000 a year and it was nearly all Performance Technologies. And last year it's been flipped. It's $50,000,000 or so going into Climate Solutions and about 30 $1,000,000 going into Performance Technology. So we're very targeted on the Performance Technology side.

Speaker 3

So that will go down and it's been way down. And then the $50,000,000 or so on Climate back to the earlier discussion, we have been doing a lot of expansion. As soon as we bought Scott Springfield, we needed to expand. We did a couple additional purchase property purchases last year and then also at the end of the year, a larger plant expansion in the UK to support data center growth. So I think that this year is probably the well, I don't say last because hopefully we'll keep accelerated growth, but there's been an accelerated CapEx to support the data center growth.

Speaker 8

Okay. Yes, certainly. Last one for me. You mentioned on heat transfer European heat pump continues to be an area of softness. You've spoken to this in the past few calls.

Speaker 8

What are you looking for as far as a bottoming for that market before that can become a source of growth? Because as I recall, that's a market that is being supported by European governments as well as far as one that they want to grow, right?

Speaker 3

Yes. I'll give you a quick answer on the e pump side and Neil wants to add anything, he can. Last fiscal year, EPUNK sales were about $50,000,000 or to say in fiscal 2023. And we did expect when the heat pump market took off really exponential growth. And we had talked about that last fiscal 2024, our sales were actually down and that was one of the big drivers in Q4 for the HTP sales decline.

Speaker 3

And what we've seen is not only the permits or the orders everybody is watching as legislation changed in Europe, but finished goods inventory across our customer base. So we're heading into the new fiscal year expecting that the market is going to remain down. And what Neil and I are planning for and we'll watch is in addition how much finished goods are in the system. So again, I'd say we started at a small base. This is about $50,000,000 a little bit less now.

Speaker 3

But clearly the growth plans have been delayed. We're going to we've paired already back any capital spending and resources in that area. But it's clearly going to take a while to sort itself out. Anything you want to add Neal?

Speaker 4

No, I think that's clear.

Speaker 8

Excellent. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is Matt Summerville with a follow-up from D. A. Davidson. Please proceed.

Speaker 7

Yes. Just a quick follow-up. Just to clarify, in your data center assumption for this year, your revenue assumption that 35% or so organic, are you assuming any contribution from liquid? And if so, what would be a reasonable expectation for if this is year 1 for a liquid business for Modine, what's a reasonable year 1 expectation for the liquid business?

Speaker 4

Yes. It's those numbers do not include liquid meth to any extent. It's a nominal amount.

Speaker 7

Got it. Do you think based on the conversations and the cadence and how this market is developing, there's optionality to start to see a liquid business materialize for Modine this fiscal year?

Speaker 4

Yes. It's all dependent on the I believe, Matt, that the quickest liquid adoption in the market from what we're seeing, and it's my perspective is on the direct to chip side, which is tied directly to the CDU. So as we continue to develop with our customers and if our customers see that there's a true demand for that from their end users, I would expect we would accelerate our testing and our development over this fiscal year. If the market lags, I would expect it to be delayed. If it's where we're at today, we would expect to have CDUs in the market by the end of the calendar year and prototyping as well as invalidation.

Speaker 4

So it's not a it's the key piece is once we convert to direct to chip that you have the technologies to support the cross selling of all the other products that we're talking about that's growing at 35 percent, if that makes sense, Matt.

Speaker 7

Yes, it does. And then I just I want to talk about kind of the go forward pricing strategy across the businesses. I would imagine there's still some leftover pricing goodness to be realized in fiscal 'twenty five in PT, just given how things seem to work in that business from a timing standpoint. So one, I guess, correct me if I'm wrong with that. And then second, the climate side, is this a business where you've put in place, Neil, kind of a commercial practice where we should expect a point or 2 or a couple of points of price capture in that business on kind of a normal go forward annual cadence?

Speaker 4

Yes, that's a good question. We're constantly making sure we're relevant in the market where we price our products. And as you know, Matt, we're in so many one of the great things about Modem is we're diversified. We're experts in heat transfer and thermodynamics, so we can serve a lot of markets. And all those markets operate differently, especially when it comes to commercial excellence and terms, P's and C's, pricing, whatever it is.

Speaker 4

On the Climate Solutions side, because it's typically there's some OEMs and a lot of it is distribution, you're correct. We can stay current and make sure that our pricing at a minimum keeps up with inflation. And then on the performance technology side, where we've got through the heavy lift in terms of that activity, there's certainly cleanup, and that's why we feel confident in the margin expansion that we were public about on the call.

Speaker 7

Got it. Thanks, Dave.

Speaker 3

I'll just add one comment on the data center and Scott Springfield. I'll make sure it's for the analysts that as we do organic and inorganic growth. When we announced deal, it was about evenly split, I think about 60% data center, 40 commercial air handlers, which is really good. But that's so as a reminder, and that's how we split it out. So we've got a really rapid growth rate on the HVAC and R side.

Speaker 3

Part of that is benefiting from Scott Springfield. And obviously, the data center side is also benefiting. But I just want to remind everyone Scott Springfield was a split between commercial and data center as you're doing your modeling.

Operator

I am showing no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Kathy Powers.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Sherry, and thanks to everyone on the line for joining us this morning. You'll be able to access the replay of the call through our website in about 2 hours. We hope you all have a great day. Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. This will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time and thank you for your participation.

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Earnings Conference Call
Modine Manufacturing Q4 2024
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