Bowlero Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
May 6, 2024

There are 13 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to Baldera's Third Quarter 20 24 Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer session. Thank you. I would now like to turn the call over to Bobby Lavin, Aldar's Chief Financial Officer.

Operator

Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Good morning to everyone on the call. This is Bobby Lavin, Valero's Chief Financial Officer. Welcome to our conference call to discuss Valero's Q3 2024 earnings. This morning, we issued a press release announcing our financial results for the period ended March 31, 2024. A copy of the press release is available in the Investor Relations section of our website.

Speaker 1

Joining me on the call today are Thomas Shannon, our Founder, Chairman and Chief Executive and Lev Exter, our President. I'd like to remind you that during today's conference call, we may make certain forward looking statements about the company's performance. Such forward looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and therefore one should not place undue reliance on them. Forward looking statements are also subject to inherent risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed. For additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ from those discussed in our forward looking statements, you should refer to the cautionary statements contained in our press release as well as the risk factors contained in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Speaker 1

Valero Corporation undertakes no obligation to revise or update any forward looking statements to reflect events or circumstances that occur after today's call. Also during today's call, the company may discuss certain non GAAP financial measures as defined by SEC Regulation G. The GAAP financial measures most directly comparable to each non GAAP financial measure discussed and the reconciliation of the differences between each non GAAP financial measure and comparable GAAP financial measure can be found on the company's website. I'll now turn the call over to Tom.

Speaker 2

Good morning. Thank you for joining us today. I am Thomas Shannon, Founder, Chairman and CEO of Bolero Corporation. Bolero had a solid 3rd quarter with total revenue growth of 8.8%. January was a challenging month because of blizzards and flooding across the country.

Speaker 2

Following this weather impacted result, our same store comp was positive in both February March and our total growth was double digits. This follows the company's 2nd quarter in which we produced same store sales growth of 0.2% and total company growth of 13.4%. Our results in the 2nd and third quarters are better than most or all of our competitors in the location based entertainment space. When we acquired Lucky Strike, we were impressed by how much food and beverage they sold to each customer. We have taken some of the learnings from Lucky Strike and began to implement that into our F and B business.

Speaker 2

We are revamping our menus, increasing food and beverage training and improving our hiring processes to make a strong organic impact on our business. Our new premium menu, which launched in recently opened Lucky Strike Miami includes salads, gluten free options, bao buns, honey chicken sandwiches and more variations of our excellent pizza. Additionally, we continue to install a selling culture that began last summer with the implementation of the bowling special. I'm excited about the opportunities in front of us as we train and incentivize our employees to sell more. The quarter was marked by substantial investments in traffic driving initiatives.

Speaker 2

These initiatives, though with some added cost, have proven their worth as evidenced by our industry leading same store comp growth. Lev Extra will discuss these initiatives in a few minutes. Our best in class events platform continues to outperform. Event revenue increased 27% year over year in the Q3 and leagues were up 9% year over year as we expanded social league opportunities combined with growing brand recognition from our PBA ownership. We continue to deploy capital and acquisitions and new builds.

Speaker 2

We opened Lucky Strike Miami in the Q3 with results moving higher weekly and above our expectations. We have 4 new builds coming online in the next 9 months with 2 opening in Denver this summer, one opening in Beverly Hills in early fall and another opening in Orange County, California in the late fall. And we are actively engaged on a pipeline of approximately a dozen more new boat locations following these. Last week, we acquired Raging Waves, the largest water park in Illinois and a transaction that came with approximately 53.5 acres of land. With this acquisition, we acquired a superb, very profitable property and partnered with a strong operator in the regional water park space at an attractive valuation.

Speaker 2

We think there is significant upside in this property. I'm also happy to provide a positive update on the status of the EEOC matter. On April 12 this year, the EEOC issued closure notices for the approximately 73 individual age discrimination charges that have been filed in most cases many years ago. The notices communicate that the EEOC has dismissed the charges and will not bring suit against the company in the individual cases. Additionally, on this most recent Friday, May 3, the EEOC issued an additional closure notice for the Pattern and Practice directed investigation.

Speaker 2

In that notice, the EEOC wrote, The Commission has determined that it will not bring a civil action against Bolero under the Age Discrimination Employment Act. And also on Friday, we received a positive court ruling in Richmond, Virginia that the case CNBC had breathlessly reported unrelated to a former employee's attempt to counter suit Bolero had been denied. Over 8.5 years, the company has vigorously denied and contested the false allegations made against it and is pleased to see that the EEOC has closed its files. We are disappointed that media outlets, mainly CNBC, have told only one side of the story, no matter how preposterous, acting as a shill for attempts to damage our reputation and leverage an unwarranted settlement. We are pleased to report these very positive developments on behalf of our shareholders.

Speaker 2

Let me hand it over to Lev Exter to talk about our internal initiatives and then Bobby will review the financial details.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Tom. As I discussed last quarter, there is material white space to provide the consumer a better experience and increase wallet share in our locations. This quarter, we saw the benefit in traffic coming from 2 internal initiatives. 1st, with amusements, we have improved guest satisfaction through increased gameplay. We have seen benefits to traffic as exhibited in our February, March April comparatives.

Speaker 3

This should help continue drive traffic in the slower months. 2nd, we have invested materially in our PBA programming. Since the start of the year, 18,500,000 viewers have watched the PBA on FOX, FS1 or FS2, which is 16% more than at the same point last year. The increase is even higher among younger viewers with the male 18 to 34 demo reach up 22% year over year. Viewers are watching more PBA than ever before as average minutes viewed per viewer have steadily increased each year and so far in 2024 that is already 15% higher than it was in 2019, the 1st year the TBA aired on FOX Sports.

Speaker 3

We have more stops in televised shows, which means more awareness and ultimately supports the value proposition of the PBA to Bolero and the industry overall. Lastly, as Tom mentioned, we are leading heavily into increasing food and beverage sales. This has become my primary focus. New menus and updated pricing roll out over the next few months. Additionally, in kitchen training and the continued development of a sales culture will lead to improved F and B uptake benefiting from the foot traffic generated by initiatives like our new summer season pass and then leading into the critical holiday period.

Speaker 3

We will continue to optimize our offerings to improve customer satisfaction, traffic and increase spend as we look to be the out of home entertainment destination of choice. That is how we will continue to outperform our peers. Now let me turn it over to Bobby.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Lev. In the Q3 of 2024, we generated total revenue ex service fee of $336,400,000 and adjusted EBITDA of $122,800,000 compared to last year of $309,100,000 and adjusted EBITDA of $127,600,000 As a reminder, service fee revenue is a pass through, a non contributor to earnings and is being phased out. Our total growth was positive 8.8% and same store comp was negative 2.1%. January was the full contributor to the negative comp for the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was 122,800,000 compared to $127,600,000 in the prior year.

Speaker 1

While worse than we expected, we're excited about the top line contribution and customer satisfaction from 2 meaningful traffic driving initiatives. Immutagens' comp gross profit year over year in the quarter was minus $5,000,000 as we invested in better experiences for the consumer. As Lev discussed, the PVA has seen significant growth this year as we increased stops and TV coverage throughout the quarter. This swung PVA to a $2,000,000 loss in the quarter. This will continue into 4Q 2024 as we ramp up incremental sponsorship on the better results.

Speaker 1

We continue to invest in our people with our same store comp payroll up $4,000,000 year over year, which is better than last quarter at $6,000,000 Our cost structure, primarily employees payroll normalizes after double digit bump to payroll in March 2023. Corporate expenses are down while we continue to invest in our event sales team. Non comp centers contribute $11,000,000 of EBITDA on approximately $35,000,000 of revenue. Lucky Strikes outperformed our expectations with the $6,000,000 contribution to EBITDA in the quarter compared to $5,000,000 in the previous year. The 1st 4 weeks of April 2024 have been strong, but due to the investments we made in the Q3, we're taking our full year guidance to the low end of the range previously disclosed.

Speaker 1

This still implies double digit revenue growth for the year and significant revenue and EBITDA growth in the 4th quarter. Please note that in the quarter we closed 1 center, which was reflected in the end center count of 3.52. In the quarter, we spent $13,000,000 on growth CapEx, dollars 9,000,000 on newbuilds and $7,000,000 on maintenance. We spent $12,000,000 on acquisitions. We also updated our capital guidance for the year.

Speaker 1

We are increasing our M and A spend to $220,000,000 from 190,000,000 dollars We are lowering conversions from $80,000,000 to $70,000,000 as we focus on internal organic opportunities to drive returns. New builds will be higher as we continue to ramp up while adjusting new build CapEx this year to $45,000,000 from 40,000,000 dollars We plan to continue to balance investing in our growth and rewarding our shareholders. Our

Speaker 4

liquidity at the end

Speaker 1

of the quarter was 437,000,000 dollars with nothing drawn on a revolver and $212,000,000 of cash. Net debt was $943,000,000 and bank credit facility net leverage ratio was 2.4 times. Thank you for your time and we look forward to taking your questions. Operator?

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin our question and answer session. Your first question comes from the line of Steven Wieczynski from Stifel. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Yes, hey guys, good morning. So I want to start with going back to the Q3. And I guess if we go back and think about when you guided, I think it was early February, you pretty much had an idea what the weather headwinds were going to be. So I guess, what we're trying to figure out is what kind of then drove the underperformance relative to the Q3 guidance? Was it really just driven by some of the investments that you guys talked about in your prepared remarks in terms of trying to drive more foot traffic?

Speaker 5

I'm just trying to tie the guidance to versus where the quarter came in. Thanks.

Speaker 1

Yes, it was entirely cost, Steve. So we're pretty aware of where our revenue is kind of going, but at the time of the February report, we weren't completely clear of both payroll costs and sort of the costs from investing in amusements and PBA. If you go back to January is our highest profit quarter or month. And so when that month just has a massive drawdown, it creates a little bit of uncertainty on the cost. We've gotten a handle of that in February, March.

Speaker 1

And so if it were just for February, March, we would have handily beat our numbers, but it's a miss and we're moving forward.

Speaker 5

Sure. Okay. And then second question is, we've gotten a lot questions this morning about the acquisition outside of the bowling space. And I guess first, can you help us think about what you paid for that acquisition and then maybe what that waterpark is doing in EBITDA? And then kind of the second part of that question is, one of the questions we've gotten is, why go outside the bowling, let's call it arena and look at other entertainment options given in your presentation you guys still believe there's a huge opportunity in terms of driving your bowling store count?

Speaker 2

Hey, this is Tom Shannon. Good morning. Yes, there's still a remaining market for bowling that's quite large, but bowling in the U. S. Is only a $4,000,000,000 TAM.

Speaker 2

And when you look at location based entertainment, it's more like $100,000,000,000 TAM. So we were presented an opportunity to buy a really beautiful asset, very well maintained, well located, 53 Acres, right sort of on the edge of the western suburbs of Chicago. And to partner with a really good operator with decades of experience running these at an attractive valuation and we thought it was a great foray into looking at this sort of asset that goes beyond Boeing, which shares many of the fundamental similarities with Boeing, very low variable cost. We understand, I think the consumer in this segment very well. And I'll say this, about a year ago or maybe 9 months ago, we purchased an asset called Mavericks and Octane in Scottsdale, Arizona, and half of that business was an indoor go kart track.

Speaker 2

And there was a lot of negative sentiment about buying the go kart track and had we sort of lost faith in the Boeing business. And we're about 7 months into that acquisition. On the run rate it's on, it's going to do $8,000,000 of EBITDA against the purchase price of $33,500,000 and really no subsequent investment after that. So there are a lot of really, really good businesses in location based entertainment that share fundamental similarities with bowling, but aren't bowling. And we're availing ourselves of that, rather not get into what we paid for it, but on a multiple basis, commensurate with what we paid for the majority of our Boeing acquisitions over the last couple of years.

Speaker 1

Okay, great.

Speaker 5

Thanks for the color, Tom. Appreciate it. Sure thing.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Matthew Boss from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Great, thanks. So Tom, could you elaborate on trends that you've seen with walk in retail traffic as the Q3 progressed? Maybe what exactly have you seen from same center comps in April and how best to think about expectations for comps in the Q4?

Speaker 2

So, Matt, the problem with our business in terms of making predictions is it's very short cycle, right? So we were positive in December. We fully anticipated a positive January. And we were surprised by the weather unfortunately. But we were we had a positive comp in February.

Speaker 2

We had a positive comp in March. And in the period that just ended yesterday, in fact, our preliminary numbers are that on a same store basis, we're up over 6% and on a total company basis, revenue is up 20%. So on a same store basis, we're up 4 out of the last 5 periods. I think we would have been up in January except for the weather. But regardless, the trend is very positive.

Speaker 2

It's a tough environment. We see that the consumer is spending, but the consumer is being more discerning. The good news is that I think we're winning the market share battle. You can't be up 6% when everyone else is down, in some cases meaningfully down and not be picking up market share.

Speaker 6

So I

Speaker 2

think the company is executing extremely well. We were cycling a lot of legacy costs. As you recall, around March of last year, we gave sizable increases in compensation to all of our managers in the field, between 12% 17.5% increases. And we're just cycling that now. So you had a combination of 2 factors over the last year.

Speaker 2

We were comping against very, very, very high post COVID same store comps year over year, up double digits, up wildly. So we're comping against that. And at the same time, we institute a massive wage increase to create more stability and tenure among our managers, which has been successful in achieving its goal. So you had the combination a year ago of a very tough comp on the revenue side and we created a very tough comp on the cost side. Those trends have now reversed themselves.

Speaker 2

We now have relatively easy same store sales comps, and we've cycled that enormous wage increase that we put through. And that's why partially why on a comp basis in February, we're up 6%, which is I mean, it's orders of magnitude versus what everyone else is doing. I take no joy in saying that other than to illustrate the point that it's a very tough environment for everyone in this space and 6% is a massive outperform. It didn't happen by accident though. It's happened by a very, very focused effort by Bobby and Lev to drive traffic in a variety of ways, optimizing our online booking process, streamlining that, driving more traffic to the website economically.

Speaker 2

We've driven down our customer acquisition cost by half on a year over year basis. And now we have the summer pass, which is our season pass for the summer where you can come in and bowl There are various packages, but the standard packages, you get 2 games every day for 1 low cost upfront akin to what the ski areas do for their winter season passes. And the pass doesn't become eligible for use until around Memorial Day. Through yesterday, we'd already sold $1,500,000 against our goal in the $10,000,000 to $15,000,000 range. You may recall that last year we eliminated that.

Speaker 2

So again, this summer we have a lot of tailwinds. We're doing all the right things. We are driving traffic and we're coming up against a relatively easy comp. 4 out of 5 of the last periods positive same store sales on a consolidated basis, we're seeing the impact of the Lucky Strike acquisition, a handful of other individual center acquisitions and also year to date we've opened 3 new builds in San Jose, Moorpark, California and in Miami, and they're all outperforming. So from where I sit, the news is very, very good.

Speaker 4

Yes. Tom, that's encouraging, particularly the 6% comp in April. I guess, what's your confidence in sustaining positive low to mid singles from here? And historically, how has Boeing held up in more recessionary backdrops? And then, Bobby, I just had one for you.

Speaker 4

If you could just help walk through the drivers in the Q4 of the EBITDA margin expansion just relative to the Q3 contraction? I think that would be really helpful.

Speaker 2

Look, like I said, Matt, it's really hard for us to make predictions because it's such a short cycle business. From where we are now, I would expect that the trend that we have of lowtomiddlesingledigitsame store sales comps will sustain itself through the rest of the year. I mean, we're seeing strength really in all parts of the business. For example, in the April period that just ended yesterday, the same store event comp was up over 15%. I expect that all those numbers are fully baked, it will end up being up more like 16% or 17%.

Speaker 2

The league business is performing extremely well. We're doing well on the retail walk in business. We have a lot of initiatives to drive organic food and beverage sales in center, which is something we've always underperformed on, but we're no longer going to accept that as the status quo. And that's a comprehensive redo from training to menus to presentation and center and all of that. So all the things that we can control, I think are driving this result.

Speaker 2

Now, if you have some exogenous shock to the economy or other things that we can't predict, again, all of this goes out the window. But based on where we are now and based on the trend, I feel very confident that lowtomidsingledigitsamestarsalescomp is readily achievable through the end of the calendar year.

Speaker 1

And Matt, so if you go to just the EBITDA expansion, you would expect our EBITDA margin and EBITDA dollars expansion we expect in the 4th quarter, really comes down to we need to have a few points of positive comp to get EBITDA up. But the second that you're above a 2% comp, the dollars flow through at anywhere between 75% 90%. In this circumstance, we've taken costs out over the past year. There are some legacy costs. We've been very clear about this litigation we've had going on for the past year and all of those are going away.

Speaker 1

So we feel very strong going into the Q4. We sort of have lapped a year of grossiness plus wage increases. We can see those real time and those are flat now, but at the end of the day and we are taking costs out of our sort of centers as well as you've seen the cost coming out of corporate.

Speaker 4

Great color. Best of luck.

Speaker 1

Great color.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Jason Tilton from Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Yes, thanks for taking the question. Good morning. I'm just curious on the events business, revenue remained really strong up about 30% year over year for the 2nd consecutive quarter. I was just wondering if you could call out anything in terms of the mix between corporate and non corporate, anything to comment on there would be really helpful.

Speaker 3

Yes, we've seen a pickup

Speaker 1

in corporate birthday parties and online. So really the mix has been strong across the board as we continue to upgrade systems, processes and we've simplified pricing on our Events platform. So we've talked about pretty openly about having a pricing consultant in here. We used to have sort of 12,000 different SKUs and 100 different open bar packages. We've simplified that significantly and the team also continues to just punch above its weight.

Speaker 6

Great, that's helpful. And just a follow-up, you mentioned the pricing consultant. I think you talked about that sort of contract running up soon and you just recently instituted some other price changes sort of across the world. I was curious what the customer response was to those over the past few months and sort of any update on where any remaining pricing changes that we would expect throughout the balance of this year?

Speaker 1

Yes. We took shoe pricing down at the beginning of April, which we feel like shoe is one of these things that the customer feels is overpriced. We've seen only positive reaction to it based on our traffic data. I mean, I would just look at some of the centers. We took shoes down the most.

Speaker 1

They were up the most last week. We will take pricing up on food in the coming months as we roll out the new menu and we're excited about both the pricing and the uptake there.

Speaker 6

Great. Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Jeremy Hamblin from Craig Hallum Capital Group. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Thanks. I wanted to just come back to cost for a second here and just understand a little bit about the seasonality that we should expect here in the Q4. So as you noted, Q3, typically your strongest quarter in terms of revenue, also your highest in terms of embedded cost to operate. I imagine you get a downtick in terms of that cost to operate in Q4, but also wanted to understand in terms of some of the investments that you noted in PBA. How should we be thinking about that here as we look forward to Q4, presumably maybe some sequential declines in SG and A spend?

Speaker 7

And then also in terms of the cost to operate in Q4?

Speaker 1

So, you'll continue to see SG and A spend coming down. So, that has been a the tip of the spear for us on how to manage inflationary dynamics. From a payroll perspective, payroll in the comp centers in 3Q 'twenty four was $68,000,000 That comes down by about 15% sequentially into the Q4 and that's just a seasonality dynamic. We are looking at other opportunities there. From a center fixed cost perspective that holds because while some of the seasonal winter seasonal issues go down, the summer utilities go up.

Speaker 1

So really the cost flex is going to be on center payroll and any sort of cost reductions we do. And that's how you should think about sort of the system is that SG and A sequentially down, corporate sequentially down and payroll meaningfully steps down. And that's why in a world where we have a good mid single digit comp, there's just a lot of operating leverage going into

Speaker 7

Q4. Great. Helpful color. And then just as a follow-up with the nice update here on EEOC. Is there any do you have a kind of a specific call out in terms of whether or not that's had additional costs from a litigation or legal perspective that with that kind of in the rearview mirror on an annualized basis, what you think the benefit might be to the company?

Speaker 1

Yes, I would say there's been a few $1,000,000 that flows through the income statement, but more importantly, it's been a distraction. And so we're happy to focus 100% now on our business and get this behind us.

Speaker 7

Great. Last one for me. In terms of your repurchase plan, I believe that you guys still have over $180,000,000 remaining on that. You've removed the expiration date. In prior quarters, with the stock below $11 you've been pretty aggressive on buying back.

Speaker 7

The stock, of course, has generally been above that level in recent months. But I wanted to get a sense if that's still kind of a range where you guys see tremendous value. And how when your window opens up on potentially doing something there?

Speaker 1

Yes. We look at our performance and we evaluate where we want to buy a stock, we would aggressively buy our stock here.

Speaker 7

And in terms of the window of when it reopens?

Speaker 1

We don't comment on those kind of mechanics.

Speaker 7

Got it. Thanks for the updates and for all our best wishes.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Ian Zaffino from Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Hi, great. Thank you very much.

Operator

I wanted to ask you

Speaker 8

a couple of questions here. First one would be, Bobby, I think you mentioned that Internet, which I guess is pre bookings, I believe, were very strong. So how does that kind of foot with how walk in retail moves? Why would one be strong and then the other one kind of lagging somewhat? And then also, I know you restored a lot of these midweek promotions.

Speaker 8

Have you seen the benefit of those? Are they kind of baked in? Or have the consumer been responding the way you expected? Thanks.

Speaker 1

Yes. So, I mean, mid week promotions coming back are great because we have an easy comp from June to October, right? On top of Tom talked about summer season pass where we're expecting we had nothing last year and we expect to kind of double from where we were 2 years ago. So we're really focused on traffic. Traffic doesn't have to be just be walk in retail.

Speaker 1

It's events are up, online is up 100%. And so ultimately, events and online are going to cannibalize just the walk in retail traffic generally because there's just going to be some people who want to book ahead. But that's a better experience for the customer and ultimately allows us to upsell them. So it's a better transaction, it's higher ARPU and ultimately it allows us to plan better and staff better. And what we're really excited about that dynamic as well is that if we have a center that's full this weekend, Times Square is full this weekend, we don't need to spend online marketing dollars driving traffic there, but if we have a center that we know might be have lower utilization in the summer, we can go spend shift the marketing dollars from high cost CMAs like New York to lower cost and drive traffic in those centers.

Speaker 1

So ultimately, the thing that if you take a step back, for years, our business was a pricing game. Now it's a traffic game. And ultimately, if we can get traffic into the centers, the incremental leverage on that is dramatic.

Speaker 8

Okay. And then can you just maybe help us understand how the comps progressed throughout the quarter? I know you had a tough January, but when you said tough, was that sort of down mid teens? Because if you kind of do the math or make some assumptions, that's what it seems like. And then you kind of were doing low singles in February and March.

Speaker 8

Is that kind of directionally right? If that's the case, I guess, you're saying you saw an acceleration to 6% in April. I'm just trying to get a sense of the cadence of, the business by month. Thanks.

Speaker 1

Yes. The 1st 3 weeks of January were worse than minus 10. We ended January minus 7. February was plus 1 and March was plus 3 and April, as Tom said, was plus 6.

Speaker 8

3%. Okay, perfect. Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Eric Handler from Broadneck, MKM. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Yes, good morning. Thank you very much. Wondering if you could talk a little bit about all the various initiatives that are working in amusements to drive that business?

Speaker 3

Hey, good morning. Lud Exter here. So when I started with the amusements department, we didn't have very many company owned arcades. Today, we have over 330 centers with company owned arcades and we consider ourselves to be a real player in the amusement space. But I don't think the consumer has caught up fast enough considering us for that business.

Speaker 3

And so all of these initiatives were to expose our amusements business to more consumers and to drive repeat visits as a result. So offering them more gameplay for a similar amount of cost to them, better prizes and redemption, winning more, and overall just a better guest experience, because as Tom as Bobby mentioned, we're in the traffic game. We want to provide as good of an experience as possible to drive those repeat visits, because at the same time we're getting better and really focused on increasing our SMB attachment when they come back, right. So, Museums has become a major hole for us for traffic. And to do so, we wanted to offer a better experience, but also put a bigger spotlight on our amusements business.

Speaker 3

So, we've even recently been engaged with arcade influencers visiting our centers, sharing content. We never had that level of focus on marketing our amusements business like we have today. Getting back to our redemption prizes, we want our guests to feel like they got a great value for their spend. So we're bringing in products that are market specific with Fanatics, right. We want it to be a better experience.

Speaker 3

And that's a 3 60 degree view, more gameplay, better game selection, better prizes, more value and as a result, repeat visits and a better sentiment towards our Mutants business and our locations as a whole.

Speaker 9

So as a follow-up then, I'm assuming the more time well, the more people spend on amusements, the more time they're spending in your centers, which I imagine then has a trickle down effect on food and beverage. Can you talk about like what happens like if a person spends 1 incremental hour in your center, maybe what that translates to in incremental spending or margin?

Speaker 1

It's a good question. I would say the average dwell time in our centers right now is about 105, 110 minutes. We have seen that creeping up. It's still early days. But really, if somebody were to order another cocktail, I mean, that's a $10, $12 increase with very little costs and you multiply that by 40,000,000 people, I mean the numbers get meaningful very quick.

Speaker 1

And so, we are just very focused on traffic into the summer. Because from our perspective, we crush it in December. January, we got whipped around on the weather. We did fairly well in February, March. But we have this fixed cost structure.

Speaker 1

We have this payroll structure. And so ultimately, if we can add $50,000,000 $100,000,000 of revenue in the summer, that's a meaningful change to our business. And if we give people a better experience, particularly with the season pass, then they're going to come back in November December. So the flywheel of getting people into the centers, giving them a premium experience, letting them engage with the new menu, the new arcade dynamic really improves customer satisfaction. And we've seen our NPS go up.

Speaker 1

Our NPS is up, it's gone from 62 to 65 in the past 6 months, which is meaningful for us. And ultimately, we think customers are choosing us and that's really exhibited in the fact that our comp in April is strong and that's where we want to be.

Speaker 9

Great. And just if I could one quick follow-up. In terms of the new menu, how many centers have the new menu? How many center how long before it rolls out everywhere?

Speaker 3

Yes. So just to share a little bit more about how we're viewing our food and beverage attachment and the focus there. So as Tom mentioned, so it's a really big focus and we've kind of underperformed there historically. So TTM, if our centers are averaging $0.65 in food and beverage spend every retail bowling dollar. I've seen firsthand being here in Miami at our new location Lucky Strike Miami, that number is closer to $2.25 So we can really see what's possible with this level of focus on food and beverage sales, but that's a comprehensive effort, right?

Speaker 3

So as Tom mentioned, new menus, new menu items, new pricing, even the presentation of the menu going from multiple sheets to a trifold or in Miami's case on our luxury menu, a book, New hiring standards to get chefs and kitchen managers into our locations where We're assessing them now on a skills based approach versus doing Zoom interviews. We're getting them into our kitchens to see how they perform and we're filtering a lot better. More training on the soft skills of selling food and beverage. We're taking a look at our windows for food sales, right. We've had like this food truck design where we're reevaluating it.

Speaker 3

We're reevaluating the bar displays to be more impactful and bigger focal points for our consumer. So, it's like a comprehensive approach on food and beverage sales on top of driving more traffic into our centers. And if we get that $0.65 closer to $1 really, really meaningful stuff. We're going to be rolling out our traditional to your question, our traditional premium menus in late May into June and then the luxury menu I mentioned at Miami to the Lucky Strikes and the higher end boleros that'll be June into July. So, by the end of July, all of our centers will be on a new menu, new pricing, and we're also giving a real look to scaling our Cheeky Monkey concept.

Speaker 3

So that came with our acquisition of Lucky Strike Fenway, because they're going to adjoining space, but really cool concept. We're revamping the brand identity right now in the menu there, but we've identified 10 of our existing locations that have viable restaurant spaces already built in that are just looking for a great concept and we think Cheeky Monkey is just that.

Operator

Thanks.

Speaker 3

You're welcome.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Eric Wold from B. Riley Securities. Please

Speaker 6

go ahead.

Speaker 10

Thank you. Good morning. So two questions for me. I guess one, just a quick follow-up on your earlier comments on the season on the summer season pass. You mentioned that you've done $100,000 or $1,500,000 against your goal of $10,000,000 to $15,000,000 How does that $1,500,000 compare kind of from the start of selling to date to prior year that you sold the same or similar offering?

Speaker 10

Running ahead of back then or kind of in line?

Speaker 3

Yes. So, it's a really interesting question because it's not necessarily apples to apples. So, at its peak, the season pass sold about a little over $6,000,000 This year with the launch of the summer season pass, so we rebranded it from summer games and we really improved the value proposition, the pricing model for the consumer. They used to get kids pass and adult pass option. They're just one pass now, which is similar to our bowling pricing, right.

Speaker 3

There's no kids bowling and adult bowling price. We have a basic pass and a premium pass now. The premium pass gets you a slight discount on food and beverage sales, gets you some arcade credits, so it's a better experience. But through the 1st 3 weeks of selling this pass where we've reached that $1,500,000 in sales, that's pre redemption. So historically, when we sold the pass, those first 3 weeks, you were able to buy it and use it that visit and redeem it right away.

Speaker 3

Right now, we're calling it a presale and you can't redeem it until May 24. So obviously, it's increasingly harder to sell it right now, right, because you don't get the same instant gratification of using it at the time of purchase. So, the $1,500,000 during this period, I think is really, really encouraging. And I think May 24th when redemption opens up and you can purchase it and use it in that same visit, you're going

Operator

to see it explode in sales.

Speaker 10

Got it. It's helpful. And then last question, kind of a higher level question. I guess there's been a lot of focus on investments over the past year plus to drive traffic, including the current quarter or the last quarter you talked about the investment in the PVA, amusement, and obviously you continue to focus on payroll. Do we get to a point where you feel you can take the foot off the gas of these investments and still be able to sustain any traffic gains?

Speaker 10

Or should we now think about maybe a longer term need to spend at higher levels just to kind of get to that normal traffic and then kind of expect maybe a longer term lower margin as a result?

Speaker 1

Yes. You're going to see the investments come down. I think we probably overshot a little bit this quarter. The new website turns on June 2. The PBA renewal recessed next year, and amusements, we continue to tinker, but we're finding the right answer.

Speaker 1

But what I think you're going to see is a meaningful step up over the next 12 to 18 months of revenue from these other ancillary lines, whether it's F and B, whether it's PBA, whether it's amusements. And so you'll see a very strong comp in the near term. And then we'll get back to sort of a run rate mid single digit comp and those investments that are driving that big step up will normalize and come down, particularly website. I mean, websites, we were spending $200 per acquisition 6, 9 months ago. Now we're spending less, but significantly less than that.

Speaker 1

So you're just seeing things coming down and really I would call 3Q24 as kind of the nadir of all that.

Speaker 10

That's very helpful. Thanks Bobby.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Daniel Moore from CJS Securities. Please go ahead.

Speaker 11

Thank you. Appreciate it. A lot of the stuff a lot of the questions have been covered, but just clarifying guidance near the low end of the range. I assume that means likely to come in a little above or a little below. Should we think of that as the new midpoint?

Speaker 11

I know it's semantics, but just trying to clarify.

Speaker 1

Yes, it should come in at the low end of the range. Okay. We're always going to have a little we're always going to have a little bit of a range, right? But we feel comfortable with where we're at.

Speaker 11

Okay. And then just I think you talked about it and certainly Tom talked about it, but just how the Raging Waves acquisition came about? And then given this is obviously in the new opportunity in a much bigger TAM or to expand the TAM, Is it planned to operate it for a season or 2 before maybe expanding in that new vertical and see how things go? Just wondering about the cadence of how you're thinking about that. Thank you again.

Speaker 2

We have a partner who has a number of these assets and manages them, some of them for the owners, some of whom are very prominent well known businessmen. These guys are the best in the waterpark business, certainly on the regional and the regional level. So you think about the market, right, it's everything below 6 Flags, Cedar Fair and SeaWorld, and there are a lot of them out there. And some of them are quite large and have a very wide moat because as you can imagine, it's very hard to build these assets now. Costs are very high, zoning prohibitive, etcetera.

Speaker 2

So these businesses, we view as being very, very attractive businesses. This particular deal was brought to us by this company who would have financed it themselves and bought it themselves, but they found that the cap rates they were being offered in the sale leaseback market were higher than they wanted to pay. And so we made a great deal for both sides where they run it with an incentive structure and we own it. I think that the EBITDA can double from where we purchased it in the next couple of years. The park is beautiful.

Speaker 2

The infrastructure is 1st class. It's well located, but there were a lot of things they weren't doing that are sort of fundamental basics in the water park and amusement park business. I'll give you one example. They didn't sell alcohol. So it can be a 95 degree day and the park is packed with 8,000 people, which is about its capacity and you can't get a beer.

Speaker 2

So simply adding that not only enhances the experience for the adults, but gives you meaningful revenue and EBITDA upside, one of many examples. So like the bowling business, largely mom and pop operated older proprietors who are natural sellers at this point. And so the deal was brought to us. We jumped on it. We've already effectuated a lot of changes, for example, applying for a liquor license months in advance of closing the transaction, which occurred 1 week ago today.

Speaker 2

That location will open around Memorial Day and we'll have basically the entire season to evaluate how we like that business before any other potential transactions would come down the pipe. So that's a very long winded way of saying, yes, we're going to know exactly how this thing is performing and really know how well we like this business in very short order.

Speaker 11

That is helpful. Thank you again.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Randy Konik from Jefferies. Please go ahead. Hey, thanks a lot.

Speaker 8

I guess first question, Bobby and Tom, how should we just back on the Boeing side of things, how should we be thinking about over the next few years the split between buy versus build on the bowling center side. Just give us your updated thoughts on how you're thinking about that part of the world?

Speaker 2

The decision is in some ways made by the market. So to the extent that you see more attractive deals on the buy side or the build side, you naturally allocate capital in those directions. There was a very long period of time where we didn't see a lot of really good newbuild opportunities, either the location wasn't good or the economics weren't attractive. And over the last 2 years, that has changed. And so we opened 3 new builds this fiscal year.

Speaker 2

We have 4 under construction currently in Beverly Hills, 2 in Denver and 1 in Orange County, California, and about a dozen behind that working their way through the pipeline. So what we're seeing now is on a relative basis, much more new build activity than acquisitions. That said, we'll acquire 21 or 22 existing Boeing centers this fiscal year. So it's not like there was a dearth of that activity, but you're definitely we're definitely seeing higher quality, more attractive newbuild opportunities now than we've seen historically. The good news is that the average unit volume of those newbuilds is significantly higher than the average unit volume of the typical acquisition.

Speaker 2

I say the typical acquisition because this year we bought the Lucky Strike chain, which had much higher average unit volumes than the typical centers we've seen. And by the way, is on pace, I think, to dramatically outperform our expectations and the market's expectations. So just a ballpark through about 6 real months of our ownership, those assets are doing ballpark $12,000,000 of EBITDA. And you can annualize that to a number that will be in excess of $20,000,000 in the 1st year against a $90,000,000 purchase price. I think you could naturally extrapolate that out to eventually get to $25,000,000 or $30,000,000 of EBITDA against a $90,000,000 purchase price.

Speaker 2

With all of the CapEx that we've used to enhance those properties generated out of the cash flow from those properties. So it was a really, really good acquisition year because the Lucky Strike assets are phenomenal, extremely well located in major markets. And then we got the brand for free. We love the brand. We've tested it.

Speaker 2

We had Nielsen test it. And the unaided awareness was 50% higher than it was for Bolero. That's why all the new centers we're building, we're building under the Lucky Strike brand. So it was a really, really good year for acquisitions in large part because of Lucky Strike. But the aggregate number in the low 20s is a pretty good number for us historically.

Speaker 2

But over the near term, you're going to see a lot of the new development be new builds. But look, a year from now, we may find that there's a whole new crop of existing centers to buy. So we're opportunistic. We deploy capital in the highest IRR opportunities first. And we're not we don't limit ourselves to, at this point, strictly bowling.

Speaker 2

That's why we were able to buy Mavericks and Octane in Scottsdale that will do on order of $8,000,000 of EBITDA in its 1st year against a $33,500,000 purchase price. There's a lot of really, really good stuff out there that I view as contiguous to our business and very similar to our business in terms of how it operates and what the levers are and they're all in our sweet spot.

Speaker 8

Super helpful and shows you obviously know how to buy and build. So I guess my last question would be more for Bobby. Look, we had the quarter, it's printed, it's now behind us. I think it will be very helpful to people listening to the call and trying to frame out more of a long term focus here is how do you think about kind of long term EBITDA margins and where they should sit over the medium to long term and why they should be at those types of levels? That would be super helpful.

Speaker 1

Yes. I think that based on what we've seen, particularly what we've engaged on over the past 6 months, we have a long runway of acquiring traffic very accretively, right? And so ultimately, I think that we'll start shifting into the higher end of the 32% to 34% range on an EBITDA margin going into 2025. But over the long term, we should hold those levels as we find the optimal sort of path to LTV transaction or what really gets customers keep coming and coming more. And so ultimately, we will continue to invest.

Speaker 1

I expect a material step up in EBITDA over the next sort of 12 to 18 months and then we'll grow from there as we continue to sort of invest, but invest where the EBITDA number is higher and the investments are lower as a percentage of EBITDA. So, this is a very like sort of transitory time in that we had a bad quarter, but we had a bad quarter from an investment perspective. We had a bad quarter and that January was just a massive, massive drawdown. If it wasn't for weather the 1st 3 weeks, this would be a very different conversation where we would have hit our numbers and continue to invest in the business. Now we missed our numbers, but invested in the business.

Speaker 1

We're not going to stop investing in the business just because of some weather impact. But ultimately, I think that the next few quarters, you're going to see significant operating leverage because we've invested in that traffic and that traffic is coming in accretively.

Operator

Super helpful. Thanks guys. The last question comes from the line of Michael Kupinski from Noble Capital Markets. Please go

Speaker 12

ahead. Thank you for taking my questions. Just a couple of follow-up. One, you made comments about the Lucky Strike brand. Is there a prospect for converting bolero locations into Lucky Strike?

Speaker 2

Yes. The plan is to convert nearly all or all of the bowlers to Lucky Strike. We'll eventually consolidate them to 2 bowling brands Lucky Strike, which will be the experientials and AMF, which will be the traditionals.

Speaker 12

Got you. Thank you.

Speaker 1

And then we're building I'm sorry,

Speaker 2

go ahead.

Speaker 1

I'm sorry, go ahead. We're building an infrastructure for it. Yes, we're building an infrastructure for it right now. You'll start seeing sort of the more prominent Olaroz converting that sits in cities that have a lot of investment community. But we're starting slow, but we are rolling it out.

Speaker 12

Perfect. And just one additional question. If you can add a little bit of more color on Raging Waves, I know there's a lot for you to learn about water parks, but do you think that there's a better return on water parks and possibly opening new bowling centers? And then can you add more color on the possible roll up opportunity in water parks in general?

Speaker 2

Well, I'm not new to the water park space. I am as an owner, but I look to acquire a location in Florida that was very similar to the one that we acquired, similar dynamic, elderly seller, had been around for a long time. And I wasn't able to buy that center because I didn't understand the concept of a sale leaseback and I could never get to the seller's price. Our partner, the management partner on this asset, Raging Waves that we bought was actually the guy who bought it. He had previously been the CEO of 6 Flags, left 6 Flags and then started buying these regional assets.

Speaker 2

He took that location from $11,000,000 in revenue to $25,000,000 and EBITDA exploded. So unfortunately, I sat on the sidelines. I tried to buy that asset for 11 years and couldn't quite get there. And I get intellectually arbitraged because this other guy understood the sale leaseback market and I did well, now I understand the sale leaseback market. And so if you think about what the potential is or the likely outcome of this asset, once we optimize EBITDAR, it would be a perfect asset to flip to the sale leaseback market.

Speaker 2

And even at these current cap rates, which are not attractive, we would probably end up with proceeds in excess of the purchase price and we'd still own on order of 50% of the cash flow. So the return would be infinite. So I think from a return profile, the returns of doing an acquisition like this are far better actually than doing a bowling alley new build. The other thing that's significant is it's more dollars. So we're able to put more dollars to work effectively the same effort.

Speaker 2

And I think that's important as we want to continue to scale. Doing individual Boeing acquisitions at this point doesn't really move the needle. We have to do more and more of them to maintain the same percentage increase as the asset base grows in size. So what are the advantages of doing these other things is, as you end up with assets that when optimized can be doing $12,000,000 or $15,000,000 of EBITDA versus $2,000,000 or $3,000,000 or in some cases 4. So I think that's an important way of looking at the business.

Speaker 2

We are in no way abandoning or walking away from the Boeing business. I want to make that perfectly clear. But we have the wherewithal from a management perspective and from a financial perspective of doing more than just Boeing at this point. And there's a whole very interesting world, where the mechanics of the business are very similar to those of the Boeing business, where it's not a leap into the unknown, where we can avail ourselves of them on an opportunistic basis. And I think you're going to find that this is going to be at the low end, this would be an unlevered 20 plus percent performer and with leverage or a sale leaseback would be infinite return.

Speaker 2

So like I've said earlier, these are all good opportunities. We pick and choose from the best and work our way down. But this waterpark investment is in no way a trade down from a return perspective versus buying or building bowling alleys. I want to make that perfectly clear.

Speaker 12

Perfect. Thank you for that color. That's all I have.

Speaker 2

Thank you. And by the way, I would encourage all of you to look online, look at Google, look at what this water park looks like, where it's located, etcetera. It's a 1st class incredibly well maintained and beautiful asset. This isn't just some regional election of slides. This is themed at a very high level.

Speaker 2

And I think we were very, very fortunate to be able to get this asset. I'd encourage you to diligence it yourselves and see just what we bought here.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, as there are no further questions at this time, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

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Earnings Conference Call
Bowlero Q3 2024
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