Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
May 7, 2024

Key Takeaways

  • Inflection in care enablement margins: FME25 transformation drove margin expansion from 1.3% in Q4 2023 to 6% in Q1 2024, supported by pricing gains and supply chain optimizations.
  • Care Delivery operational improvements: Constrained clinics decreased by one third and open nurse/tech positions fell by ~500 to ~3,500, improving capacity to serve more patients.
  • Value-Based Care momentum: The VBC segment delivered a positive EBIT contribution in Q1 and is expected to contribute positively for the full year 2024.
  • Portfolio optimization underway: Exits from Latin American markets, Turkey and Australia are expected to generate ~€650 M cash proceeds, alongside ~€250 M in one-off charges in 2024.
  • US treatment volumes remain challenged: Q1 same-market treatment growth was flat to slightly negative (-0.3%) due to weather, flu season and capacity constraints, with growth expected at 0.5%–2% in 2024.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA Q1 2024
00:00 / 00:00

There are 13 speakers on the call.

Operator

At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Dominik, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Alice. Good afternoon or good morning, depending on where you are. I would like to welcome you to our earnings call for the Q1 of this year. We appreciate you joining us today. I will, as always, start out the call by mentioning our cautionary language that is in our safe harbor statement as well as in our presentation and in all the materials that we have distributed earlier today.

Speaker 1

For further details concerning risks and uncertainties, please refer to these documents as well as to our SEC filings. As we have only 60 minutes for the call, we have prepared a short presentation to leave time for questions. As always, we would like to limit the number of questions to 2 in order to give everyone the chance to ask. Should there be further questions and time left, we are more than happy to do a second round. With us today is Helen Gieder, our CEO and Chair of the Management Board and Martin Fischer, our CFO.

Speaker 1

Helen will start with an update on the major developments, and Martin will provide a review of the financial performance in the Q1. Then we are happy to take your questions. With that, Helen, the floor is yours.

Operator

Thank you, Dominik. Welcome, everyone. Thank you for joining our presentation today and for your continued interest in Fresenius Medical Care. I will begin my prepared remarks on Slide 4. I'm pleased to report that we continue to make tangible progress on both our transformation and our turnaround efforts, And we are meaningfully advancing toward our 2025 group margin target band.

Operator

The progress is visible in both of our operating segments. Care Delivery, the Q1 was marked by important leadership changes and organizational improvements. As you know, Craig Kodula, our new Head of Care Delivery officially started on the 1st January. A key for his 1st 100 days was to implement a new organizational structure and leadership team for his business and focus on holistic end to end process improvements. With the streamlined care delivery organizational changes now in place since the 1st April, I'm very encouraged by the focus, professionalism and speed of implementation that Craig and his new leadership team are bringing to the business.

Operator

And their priorities centered around driving patient growth are very clear. In the U. S, a major focus for the Care Delivery team is on improving clinic utilization, optimizing processes, as well as unconstraining clinics and optimizing the clinic footprint, especially in growth markets. We were able to decrease the number of constrained clinics by about 1 third by the end of the first quarter. We have very good visibility on the capacity constrained markets and specific clinics and the challenges are not uniform.

Operator

For example, in several constrained markets, staffing shortages remain a factor. Therefore, hiring and reducing turnover remains a priority. By the end of the Q1, our open positions for nurses and technicians across the U. S. Were reduced by around 500 to approximately 3,500, which is now very close to a normalized level of 2,000 to 3,000 open positions.

Operator

This will position us better to take on more patients in the coming quarters. In other markets, for example, we are seeing strong demand and do not have sufficient capacity to capture all the patients. For growth markets, it is not just about more hires, but we also need to consider how to make more dialysis chairs available if the expansion drives profitable growth. Expanding our strategic growth areas within care delivery remains a priority. The main driver of the mentioned favorable phasing in the Q1 comes from our value based care business.

Operator

We had a strong We know that value based care revenues and returns can be lumpy and therefore focus more on annual performance. We have planned for our medical costs under management to grow to $8,000,000,000 for the full year and we expect our value based care business to be a positive contributor for full year 2024 and the positive EBIT contribution in the Q1 puts us in a good position to achieve that. As you have seen, we continue to move at speed in our portfolio optimization plan with several additional market exits announced and others closed since our last earnings call. I will review those in more detail later on. Turning to care enablement, I'm very excited about our progress with further proof points demonstrated the continued momentum of our FME25 transformation efforts.

Operator

This resulted in an inflection point in our care enablement margin expansion from 1.3% in the Q4 of 2023 to 6% in the Q1 of 2024. Driving this positive margin development is a further improvement in pricing as we both renegotiate and sign new contracts on more favorable terms. With an eye toward cost reduction and margin improvement, several initiatives are underway to optimize our manufacturing footprint and supply chain, which will further benefit the margin development in 2025 and beyond. For example, we are in the process of moving production from our plant in Concord, California to Mexico with production set to wind down in California later this year. We continue to optimize the production of a lower cost fluid line in Knoxville, along with additional cost reductions across initiatives across the manufacturing network.

Operator

In January, we launched further supply chain initiatives in North America to improve operational effectiveness of our distribution network. Pricing as well as margin expansion continue to be a key focus of the CE commercial and operation teams globally. At the same time in care enablement, we are preparing for the rollout of high volume hemodial filtration in the U. S. And the opportunity to bring much needed innovation and set a new standard of care for patients, and at the same time maximize the benefits of our vertically integrated strategy.

Operator

And transformation and transformation efforts driving improved financial performance already, and we are on track to achieve our 2025 margin targets. Moving to Slide 5. For the group, the Q1 is always relatively weaker compared with the full year, which usually ends with a strong quarter. Please keep this in mind when we guide you through our Q1 developments, although we have benefited this quarter from a favorable phasing effect, which I'll come back to later. In the Q1, we delivered solid revenue growth of 4% with positive contributions from both Care Delivery and Care Enablement.

Operator

For Care Delivery U. S, we knew that the Q1 was not going to be easy from a volume perspective, and it broadly developed in line with our expectations for a broadly flat quarter. Adjusted for the exit from less profitable acute care contracts, U. S. Same market treatment growth came in at minus 0.3%.

Operator

This reflected some more significant weather events within our clinic footprint and an increased impact from the flu season this year. Both led to a higher level of mistreatment. And while improving at the end of the quarter, we continue to have some capacity constrained clinics. But at the same time, we are encouraged by the increase in referrals sequentially. Therefore, in line with our planning, we expect to see growth of 0.5% to 2% over the course of the year and the changes in focus of the new care delivery leadership are ensuring that we are well positioned to better capture the growth.

Operator

In the Q1 from an earnings perspective, both segments realized an improved operating income margin on a year over year basis. In particular, strong momentum in Care Enablement led to an accelerated margin improvement on a sequential basis and solid development against a strong Q1 of 2023. This was supported by strong execution of our FME25 transformation program. As planned, FME25 contributed €52,000,000 in additional savings, and we are well on track to achieve the targeted €100,000,000 to €150,000,000 in additional savings by year end. As already mentioned, we continue to move at speed on our portfolio optimization plan.

Operator

While we are executing against our turnaround and transformation plans, it is paramount that we do not lose focus on our patients. In the Q1, we remained on a high level of clinical quality, which is not only the core of all we do, but integral to our sustainability agenda. To this extent, we will host a sustainability expert call on the 13th June to highlight our initiatives and achievements in this area. Information on the call is available on our Investor Relations website. Turning to Slide 6.

Operator

As I just referenced, we are moving at pace to exit non core and dilutive assets. In the Q1, we announced that we will divest our clinic networks in Brazil, Colombia, Chile and Ecuador. And after further signing the divestments of our clinic networks in Guatemala, Peru and Curacao, we have now signed or closed the exit from all of our clinic operations in Latin America. Additionally, in April, we closed the previously announced divestments of the care delivery businesses in Turkey and the Kiradei Hospital Group in Australia during April. These collective transactions that I just described are expected to generate cash proceeds of around €650,000,000 upon closing, which we will use to continue to delever.

Operator

And all transactions that are currently signed as part of our portfolio optimization plan are estimated to have a negative impact of around €250,000,000 in the full year 2024, mainly from goodwill write off and book value adjustments, which will be treated as special items in operating income. With that, I'll hand over to Martin to walk you through the Q1 financial performance.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Helen, and welcome to everyone on the call. I will recap our Q1 performance beginning on Slide 8. In the Q1, we delivered strong revenue growth of 4% on an outlook basis. Organic growth of 5% was mainly driven by our growing value based care business and the favorable rate and mix development in care delivery. In Care Enablement, growth was supported by positive pricing development.

Speaker 2

During the Q1, operating income on an outlook basis improved by 23% supported by higher prices, higher value based care contribution, and strong but expected FMB25 savings, resulting in a meaningful margin improvement of 130 basis points. As Helen mentioned, our value based care business not only improved year over year, but was a positive earnings contributor in the quarter. This led to an earnings development that was somewhat better than expected from a phasing perspective. The 150 €7,000,000 in special items that you see on the chart comprise €143,000,000 in portfolio optimization costs. This is primarily related to the impairment of tangible and intangible assets resulting from the classification as assets held for sale.

Speaker 2

It also includes FME-fifty five costs of €28,000,000 as well as €1,000,000 in costs associated with the legal form conversion. Additionally, tumor side view measurements contributed positively to special items with €15,000,000 Turning to Slide 9. This slide provides an overview of the 130 basis points improvement for our operating income margin compared to the Q1 of 2023 on an outlook basis. Starting from the left, as a reminder, the special items in 2023 mainly were related to our portfolio optimization efforts in Care Enablement. This brings us to the starting point of our segment.

Speaker 2

The positive margin contributions from both Care Delivery and Care Enablement are important proof points that we are successfully executing against our turnaround and our transformation plans. While there is more work ahead of us, the step up from a 7.3% to a 8.6% group margin in the normally weaker first quarter is visible progress towards our 2025 group margin target range. Next on slide 10. Care delivery revenue increased by 5% on an outlook base supported by 6% organic growth. In the U.

Speaker 2

S, growth of 6% was driven by a growing value based care business, assumed moderate reimbursement rate increases, and a favorable payer mix development, as we continue to see incremental increases in our Medicare Advantage population. As expected, development was down by 0.3% when adjusted for the impact of acute contract exits. This is broadly in line with our expectation for the Q1, and we expected this to improve over the course of the year. Revenue in the internal markets increased by 2% driven by organic growth and the benefit of increased dialysis days year over year. In the Q1, we observed operating income growth of 25% year over year.

Speaker 2

Positive business growth was driven by improved pricing, payer mix effects and higher contributions from value based care. Additionally, FME25 savings also contributed to improved earnings. This was partially offset by higher labor and inflation costs, largely related to the annualization of merit increases in the prior year and fully in line with our assumptions for the current year. Turning to Page 11. In the Q1, Care enablement revenue increased by 2% on an outlook basis supported by 2% inorganic growth.

Speaker 2

This growth largely reflects our continued pricing momentum. We need to compare this to a very strong Q1 in 2023 that benefited from higher sales in critical care products in China as part of a COVID related one time government initiative. On an outlook basis, operating income for Care Enablement grew by 23%. Business growth remained stable, with continued improved pricing being offset by the negative volume based effect from the mentioned prior year China Critical Care sales, as well as unfavorable foreign exchange transaction effects. The positive development was driven by strong FME25 savings, but partially offset by inflationary cost increases.

Speaker 2

This is well in line with our outlook assumptions for the year. Despite the absence of the China Critical Care sales, our Q1 development not only increased, but also better reflects more sustainable improvements in performance. This is in particular visible when compared sequentially to the Q4 of 2023 with 1.3%. We see a clear inflection point in margin improvement. Also, the extent of development might vary quarter by quarter, We also expect for the full year a very visible step up of the care enablement margin compared to 23, with clear progress towards our 2025 target margin there.

Speaker 2

Continuing on Page 12. Our operating cash flow development was negatively impacted by €58,000,000 resulting from a Sysor incident in February at Change Healthcare, who is a U. S. Clearinghouse provider. This more than offset the otherwise positive operating cash flow development.

Speaker 2

As a consequence of the cyber incident, we had a ramp up of open claims during the quarter, which were moderated at the end of the quarter to €273,000,000 At the end of quarter 1, €311,000,000 of the short term financing instruments in the U. S. Had been utilized. On the back of strong crisis management and quick implementation of countermeasures, plus advanced payments received from different payers, which totaled €250,000,000 the impact was mitigated, and our gross debt for the group was flat compared to year end last year. Cash collection has continued to pick up in April and with claim management normalizing, debt levels have also reduced to a normal level in the U.

Speaker 2

S. We continue to enforce our strict financial policy that includes a disciplined approach to capital expenditures. As a result, we realized free cash flow conversion consistent with prior year levels. Our net leverage ratio of 3.2 was stable sequentially, remaining at the lower end of our self imposed target corridor of 3 times to 3.5 times net debt to EBITDA. In line with our 2025 strategic ambitions and current capital allocation priorities, deleveraging remains a top priority.

Speaker 2

We continue to execute against our portfolio optimization plan and proceeds will be used to further reduce debt. I will now hand over to Helen to finish with our outlook.

Operator

Thank you, Maarten. I will finish the presentation with our outlook on Slide 14. While phasing for 1st quarter earnings was somewhat better than expected driven by our value based care business, overall, our performance and outlook assumptions developed broadly in line with our expectations. Therefore, we are confirming our 2024 outlook of low to mid single digit revenue growth and mid to high teens operating income growth for the full year. This quarter once again demonstrated that we are not only focused on executing against our transformation and turnaround initiatives, but also served as another proof point that we can deliver.

Operator

I'm very encouraged by the progress we are making at a group level as we take the necessary steps to strengthen and transform our business and lay the foundation to capture profitable growth. We started 2024 off strong with continued momentum with our FME25 savings and portfolio optimization plan, as well as an inflection point in our care enablement margin. There is clearly more work to be done and of course, but we do remain confident in our path to achieve a group operating income margin of 10% to 14% in 2025. That concludes my prepared remarks. And with that, I'll hand back to Dominik to start the Q and A.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Helen and Martin, for your presentation. Before I hand over for the Q and A, I would like to remind everyone to limit your questions to 2. If we have remaining time, we can go another round. And with that, I hand it over to Alice to open the Q and A, please.

Operator

We will now begin the question and answer session.

Speaker 1

Thank you. The first question comes from Richard from Goldman Sachs. Richard?

Speaker 3

Thank you very much. So two questions from me, please. The first one on Care enablement margins. So obviously, strong sequential improvement. But my question is, how sustainable do you think that improvement is now?

Speaker 3

So obviously last year you had a strong start in Q1 and then margins faded slightly through the year. Is there anything that you can call out in terms of phasing for CE margins this year? Or can we expect further improvements from the solid base in Q1? That's the first question. Then my second one is on the Q1 number for U.

Speaker 3

S. Treatment volumes. Obviously, we're relatively subdued start to the year. Are you able to share any additional color or quantifications on the drivers of that between excess mortality, mistreatments and new starts? Thank you.

Operator

Hi, Richard. This is Helen. I'll take those 2. So on care enablement margins, as you could probably tell from my tone here, we're really excited to see the inflection point. We had said that we expected the care enablement margin to at least double from last year.

Operator

And of course, what you see here is quite a decent step up. We do expect there will be a little bit of phasing as we go through the quarters. And as we know, value sorry, VBP, value based pricing in procurement, excuse me, in China will come in at the back half of the year. But at the same time, we also expect to have further FME25 contributions and the impact from price. So I think overall, that 6% might be an aggressive proxy for the year, but definitely trending toward that direction, but with some fluctuations probably through the quarters.

Operator

On your second question, yes, look, we know we all know we are watching I think the world is watching the U. S. Treatment volume growth. And obviously, while Q1 came in, in line with our expectations, it is obviously still hovering around that flat piece. We did have a flu season that was a little bit stronger than we had thought.

Operator

That did result in higher mortality and mistreatments in January. I think also for us with our regional footprint, bad weather in the 1st 6 weeks of the year also impacted those mistreatments. The positive sign that we're signaling here is referral trends are better Q4 to Q1. And then I think outside the external factors, if you will, about kind of the flu season and weather, obviously, the operational double down here and pulling apart our end to end processes to improve our operational capabilities is well underway. Of course, we know these things take some time, but confident in the overall plan here that we'll get this within the range that we have obviously guided to.

Speaker 3

Great. Thank you, Helen.

Speaker 1

So the next question comes from Victoria from Berenberg. Victoria?

Speaker 4

Thanks for taking my question. Just the first one for me is, where was clinic utilization tracking in Q1? DaVita commented that they were tracking near, I think it was 67% during the quarter. So it would just be good to see what the comparison is between both of you. And then I saw that there was a divestiture from your Turkish clinics business.

Speaker 4

Could you give some color how big that divestment is and what other geographies you may be looking to exit this year? Thank you.

Operator

Hi, Victoria. I'll take your first question and maybe Martin and I, I'm sorry, we'll tag team the second question. In terms of our utilization, I think we are seeing it very similar to DaVita. I think DaVita said 58 percent on their call. We are seeing it very similar in that high 50s.

Operator

Obviously, not where we where any of us wanted to be, but it is kind of a key focus area for us. And I think the work that we're doing kind of on the operational turnaround will certainly help that as well. Obviously, that constrained clinic coming down by a third from quarter end last year is significant for us as well. I mean, Martin, do you want to take the numbers on the Turkey divestiture? And then I can speak to the overall Turkey divestiture sorry, the rest of the divestiture for you.

Speaker 2

Yes. So we have divested Turkey just only recently. I think it's a smaller sized business and we

Operator

I think we closed it in April.

Speaker 2

In April, exactly. And it is sorry. Yes, we closed it in April. It's a smaller sized business. I think it's more in the low double digit volume range that is relevant for us.

Speaker 2

And we are in the process or we just closed and have in Q2, we expect the divestiture effects to materialize. And with that, I think we have also divested the remainder of Latin America in April and in the Q1 as well. But for the Q1, there is almost no effect that we have from divestitures. It will be shown in the quarter 2.

Operator

Sorry, on your broader question about what else is in scope, as you can see, we have we've moved at quite some pace from with Argentina and NCP, quite the laundry list in Q1 with many of those also going into Q2 announcements and closing. We have signed roughly around $1,000,000,000 of revenues for those divestments. I think you can expect that the majority of what we had in scope is now out there. There's a handful of things that we are still working through some other country footprint, but obviously we can't speak to that until it's public and kind of maybe some other smaller assets in scope. I think we've been very consistent with our portfolio optimization plan here.

Operator

And as you saw in our press release, we expect to get around $650,000,000 of proceeds from what we had signed in 2024, which adds to roughly the $135,000,000 that we got last year. So I think all on track, proceeding well, a lot of activity these last few months.

Speaker 4

Thank you.

Speaker 1

The next call comes from James from Jefferies. James, the line is yours.

Speaker 5

Hi, thanks for taking my questions.

Speaker 1

2 if I can please. If I can just come back to

Speaker 5

the same store number you mentioned, I think it's minus 0.7 or minus 0.3 at just in the acute clinics. There seems to be on a different trajectory to DaVita, who I imagine also had to deal with weather and flu and things. So I guess what are the key differences between them and your business? And did I hit correctly, you're also reiterating the 0.5% to 2% volume growth target for 2024, if I didn't see that in the slides? And then my second question is just on the inter segment business.

Speaker 5

I mean the margins were positive here. So I was just kind of curious, does this contribute to the care enablement margins and should we expect a positive margin for the eliminations in full year 'twenty four? Thank you.

Operator

Hi, James. I'll take that first question. Yes, look, there's clinic footprint does vary. I think there's definitely a distinction between our competitors' performance on same market treatment growth in ours. But the footprint does vary.

Operator

We were hit pretty hard on East Coast. So flu season should be roughly the same. Weather can vary. And clearly, we've got some operational work to do and that is well underway here, particularly on some of our processes as well as unconstraining clinics and still some labor challenging markets for us. So we do reconfirm our growth.

Operator

It wasn't on the slide, but I think I spoke to Ed of 0.5% to 2%. But obviously, we know that that is expected to step up over the course of the year. And I think what we're looking at in terms of the patient funnel and referral trends, admissions, new patient starts, obviously, they're all important metrics for the incoming funnel. And then for us, operationally, we need to kind of make sure that we can get them into our clinics and service them. And that's kind of the ongoing process work that we're doing.

Operator

In terms of the intersegment business, nothing has changed there in terms of the intercompany pricing or anything like that. So I want to be very clear that that's not transfer pricing or intercompany games. This is really the progress in care enablement is really underlying the operational FME25 transformation programs. And I've been telling you all, it's coming. We just they take longer.

Operator

We just got to be patient. And now we're starting to see that inflection, particularly on the manufacturing side, and that was evident in the Q1 as well as the continued pricing.

Speaker 2

Also, perhaps to add on the intersegment, it does not roll up into Care Enablement. It rolls up together on the corporate piece. So what you see in the Care Enablement numbers is a true Care and Edelman operational performance improvement.

Speaker 5

That's very clear. Thanks very much.

Speaker 1

Thank you, James. The next question comes from Veronika from Citi. Veronika, the line is here.

Speaker 6

I will also stick to 2 very predictable topics. I apologize. The first one is just to circle back to the same market treatment growth. And Helen, I don't know if you can maybe articulate a little bit better your expectation of the cadence of growth as we move through Q2, Q3 and Q4. I guess, would you already expect to be in the 0.5% to 2% range in the second quarter?

Speaker 6

Or do we need to wait for that until 3Q or Q4? And then apologies for being nitpicky, but any impact from day number of days in Q1? And if you can just remind us if that's included or excluded in the minus 0.7, apologies. I should have asked that of Dominic first thing this morning, but I forgot. My second the same market, it does look like revenue per treatment in Q1 was very healthy.

Speaker 6

The same market, it does look like revenue per treatment in Q1 was very healthy. Anything unusual here? And if you can give us an update on Medicare Advantage and how trending and if that was a meaningful driver? Thank you, guys.

Operator

Hey, Veronica. Thank you. Same market treatment growth, not a surprise. Look, I think the cadence of growth, our expectation is that this is going to ramp up over the quarters, and we're expecting it to be stronger in half 2. I think the obviously, I have a range out there and you kind of we're obviously managing the guidance within that range.

Operator

The work that we're doing, some of that's taking kind of weeks and months to take hold. So I think that's also why we're kind of saying it will ramp up. I don't think it will be the significant step up like the numbers you threw out there, Veronica, for Q2, but ramping up over the course of the year. The impact of dialysis days, there is actually one more day in the quarter, but we actually adjust for that in our same market treatment growth calculations in our company anyway. So that has been adjusted out already.

Operator

So obviously, that kind of it's a negative adjustment. Moving to your RPT question. Look, this is something we you see the revenue growth. And obviously, as you say, you back out the volume. Really, really pleased with the progress that we're seeing on that line from reimbursement, from pricing and from mix.

Operator

MA mix continues to grow. There was a time when I said, my gosh, if we can get this to 35%, that would be great. And now we're north of 40% and kind of going towards that mid-forty percent number. So I think the mix, the commercial mix is strong, slight improvement there, and then kind of obviously the contracting that comes with that. So really pleased with the progression on the RPT.

Speaker 6

Excellent. Thanks so much.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Veronica. Next question comes from Graham from UBS. Graham, line is yours.

Speaker 3

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. Just first one on GLP-one, which hasn't been asked. It's in a while. But we're obviously still waiting to get more information from the flow data.

Speaker 3

But I was wondering in terms of what you have internally, do you have any data that indicates when you're treating a patient who's currently taking GLP-one that it actually does translate into longer times on dialysis, I. E, lower mortality overall therefore benefit to you guys? So that would be question number 1. And question 2 is, as you continue this great delivery and you're seeing the balance sheet deleverage, what are your thoughts in terms of what you might do with that extra balance sheet room? Maybe not the next sort of 6 to 12 months, but beyond that, particularly as you've obviously retrenched from some international markets that leaves flex for things like say buybacks as one of your peers clearly does?

Speaker 3

Thank you very much. Thank you. Fighting over

Operator

the mute button, sorry about that. Hi, Graham. The GLP-1s, we do have good data on the patients, our patient population that is taking GLP-1s. Two things I would say. For those that are on it, they're not on it long enough yet for us to have any experience to kind of see what that translates into in terms of extended time on dialysis.

Operator

I think maybe we have about a year's worth of experience there. I think the other comment I would add on GLPs and outpatient population is that we have a very, very high dropout thus far of those patients that are on a GLP-one and then kind of dropping off it pretty and I think that's not expected And I think that's not expected to read out until 2027. So we obviously, we're later this month, we will have the expected readout of the double click, if you will, of the data from flow, but everything that we're seeing so far continues to confirm our expectations. Let me have Martin speak to the current capital allocation and delever plan, then I'll speak to maybe how I'm thinking about the strategy for the broader capital allocation plan.

Speaker 2

Yes. So Graham, we have well articulated 2025. So until then, it is all about execution. It is about making sure that we continue to execute on our divestment plans. And we will continue to deploy capital to deleverage also kind of to make sure that we do what we can do from our side to keep the investment grade.

Speaker 2

There is a 3.3.5 percent own applied range that we have. And I think with the 3.2%, we are well positioned therein and there's still some room for us to optimize. Having said that, capital allocation follows strategy. And with that, I think I hand the strategy part of the question to Helen.

Operator

Yes. Thank you. Graham, I think we feel really good about the capital allocation plans we have in place. And obviously, the combination of the divestments, the improving cash flow, improved operating performance is getting us to a natural delever. We've been asked the question a lot, it's 3x to 3.5x where you're going stick or are you going to change it?

Operator

I think that answer depends on kind of our outlook. Obviously, I'm working with the leadership team pretty hard now on the strategy beyond 2025 and what those capital needs are. Obviously, we have HDF launch clearly sitting in our strategy wheelhouse as well as continued home and value based care. So I think we'll be continuing to work that internally. And when we can deliver the strategy, we'll also deliver the capital allocation plan with that.

Operator

So we're probably thinking next year for Capital Markets Day on most of this. But for now, the focus is on strong cash flow generation, improving the profitability, delevering with the cash that we have and building headroom, particularly in this kind of volatile financial market that we're in. So I think we all feel good about the current plan.

Speaker 3

Awesome. That's great. Thank you very much, guys. You bet.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Graham. Next question comes from Lisa from Bernstein.

Speaker 7

Hi there. Can you just comment on the VVP in dialysis products in China? Is that going to be consumables and machines? And also if you could just give us a rough estimate of what your care enablement sales in China are and assuming that that gets cut in half perhaps what the profit impact would be as well?

Speaker 6

Thank you.

Operator

Hi, Lisa. Yes, the it's for that business in China, it's consumables. I don't think we've disclosed our separate revenue on the China business per se. We have built in an expected impact for VBP into our guidance outlook and kind of with what we're seeing on tenders and so on, expect that to be a back half impact, which also, obviously, with the care enablement margin in Q1, obviously, we have that's why I'm saying that might be a little phasing through the quarters. So I think what we've seen and what we've been successful on in the work there on VBP in China seems to be holding its own.

Speaker 1

And we

Operator

yes, we're on good track there, I feel.

Speaker 7

And just a follow-up question. Could you give us a rough idea of what your market share is in China consumables? I mean, I think globally you're like in the 40%, fifty percent range in most markets, if I'm correct on that. Just wondering if China is different.

Operator

Lisa, I don't have that market share number to hand. Why don't I have Dominic follow back up with you there? I mean, you're right in terms of being the clear leader in the HD products, but let me see if we can snag that market share and get back to you.

Speaker 7

Okay, perfect. Thanks.

Operator

Thanks.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Lisa. Next question comes from Robert from Morgan Stanley.

Speaker 8

Good morning. Yes, thanks for taking my questions. I had a few. One was just could you give us an update, because I might have missed it earlier, just in terms of where you're seeing sort of labor inflation trends so far this year? Are those still coming down in the way you'd originally expected coming into 2024?

Speaker 8

The second one was on just your sort of outlook. I know you set a medium to margin target. Just in terms of where you're at in normalized growth rates, given this trend of excess mortality and I guess kind of exiting COVID comps, there's a lot of the moving parts. So just be curious a little bit more color around what your expectations of what the kind of mid term growth potential for this business is likely to be? And then the final one, perhaps you could just give us an update on how things are trending around home dialysis, where that is a percentage of overall kind of activity at the moment?

Operator

Martin, do you want to take the last one and I'll take next to?

Speaker 2

Yes. As it comes to labor inflation, we are Robert, we are well on track. So we have certain assumptions built into our guidance. We assumed a 5% kind of inflation being offset by efficiencies and coming down to a net 3%. We do see that confirmed in our Q1.

Speaker 2

So, it is developing in line as expectations as we also outlined in the expected headwind. So we are confident that we see further easing as we assumed also throughout 2024. 24.

Operator

Robert, on your question on the outlook for growth, I think we've been pretty consistent that we feel that the underlying fundamentals in this business are on track. The growing population, the aging population, the increasing incidence of the disease state, still no substitution for dialysis and small numbers of transplantation. And I think with our neutral view on GLPs, we're still, I think, feeling confident that the return to market growth of 2% to 3% back to pre COVID level by the end of 'twenty five is on track. So we are still confirming that. Home, your question on home, I think we've all been a little frustrated with the kind of the stagnation in home.

Operator

And we all know why, whether it be kind of the training ability or kind of training capacity of our staff. What I would say is we have a little bit of an increase. We're still in that low 16%. But I think the trends that we're seeing there now is a little bit of an inflection point in the number of patients being trained. So more patients coming in for training and the expectation and hope is that, that will translate into net patient gains, which is the important number there.

Operator

So we're making progress. I think we all wish it would be faster. We have an aspirational goal out there, but I think this is going in tandem with the kind of the operational turnaround kind of in the clinic efficiencies as well.

Speaker 1

Thank you. The next question comes from Hugo from BNP. The line is here, Hugo.

Speaker 9

Thanks, Dominik. Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. I have 2. Maybe, Helene, first, you mentioned the strong trends in terms of referrals, strong funnel.

Speaker 9

Just curious what's the lag here, how long it takes to feed same treatment market growth? And I didn't catch your earlier answer on the Runiclass question. Would you expect as soon as Q2 to be at or above 0.5% for same market treatment growth? 2nd, a follow-up on the hemodialysis. Curious to get your thoughts and views on the improving access to arm dialysis act, maybe the likelihood to go through and feedback that you're getting from your teams in Washington?

Speaker 1

Thank you. Hugo, we couldn't properly hear your first question. I think you asked how long referrals take to reflect in same market treatment growth. Is that correct?

Speaker 9

That's correct. Yes. Thank you.

Operator

Okay. Maybe I'm hi, Hugo. Maybe I'll take these in reverse order as we pull some numbers here. On the last one about the Dialysis Act, I don't think, obviously, that we're supportive of what's going on there. We're not expecting that, though, to have any more of an impact to us than what we've already got in here.

Operator

If I recall correctly, it was budget neutral from CMS. So that likely will kind of maybe reduces the likelihood of getting it through. But I don't think that changes our plans or anything on home. In terms of the same market treatment growth, I mean, I'm not going to guess at what the number is for Q2. I mean, I know the work that's underway.

Operator

I can see the patient funnel. Obviously, we're expecting it to increase, but I'm not going to guess at that number right now. We'll give you the update in Q2. And then in terms of the first question on how long it takes to get referrals, I mean, that referral becomes a patient in a chair. And obviously, the more treatments we have, it plays into the treatment number.

Operator

So pretty quickly, but obviously, one new patient and one treatment adds a slower number to the numerator, if you will. So I think, obviously, we want to make sure that, that referral gets scheduled, gets into our clinic, that they're not missing their treatment, and overall, that's adding to the growth. But obviously, that does take time to show up in a because of the number of patients, the number of treatments in the base takes one additional patient takes a while to show up in the number. We need a lot of patients to get that back. But we're optimistic.

Operator

I feel really confident with the work the team is doing. I think we're addressing it the right way. We're pulling apart processes and improving them end to end. So I'm optimistic that it's going to translate into real growth.

Speaker 9

Okay. Thank you very much.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Yigal. The next question comes from Anshul from JPMorgan.

Speaker 10

Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my calls. My call is on behalf of David Adlington. I have 2, please. Firstly, can you please quantify how much of a benefit the VBC was in Q1?

Speaker 10

And how should we be thinking about that for the rest of the year? And then a second one is just a follow-up on the labor inflation. Could you comment on how much your agency costs have reduced year on year? And can you take these agency costs down further?

Operator

Thanks, Anshao. I think I'll take both of those. Yes, the BBC business, as you know, obviously fluctuates up and down depending on the kind of the claims and the experience there. I think probably the number that's meaningful for Q1 is that we saw a low double digit positive amount in the quarter. So that kind of gives you a sense of when we talk about the phasing, the earnings contribution in Q1 was low double digits, and I say that's in euros.

Operator

The kind of how that plays out through the rest of the year will depend on that, the kind of the contract and the way the revenue flows. In terms of your labor question, as quickly as that temporary labor market rose, in what I lovingly referred to as the hot mess of the summer of 2022, and those rates increased, that all dissipated as well. So, our use of contract labor is down significantly year over year and quarter over quarter. We're using it selectively, I would say though, where we know that it makes sense to use that, that's really tight controls over using it in certain metro areas, hotspots or clear constrained clinics where we need to get temporary labor in. But it's definitely down in usage and significantly down in rates.

Speaker 10

Perfect. That's very helpful. Thanks, Helen.

Speaker 1

Thank you. The next question comes from Oliver from ODDO BHF.

Speaker 11

Yes. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. So the first one is also on labor. So recent data suggest a stronger than expected economy in the U.

Speaker 11

S, also some more positive labor data. So can you elaborate about the current labor shortage situations? And also this context, basically after that experience you made 2 years ago, if the situation deteriorates quickly, have you learned something from 2 years ago where you can adapt that the consequences might not be as severe, just talking in an extreme case scenario? 2nd question is, summer is not far away. So some indication about the next year's bundle rate increase should come.

Speaker 11

So I assume you have a lot of interactions with CMS and also government. So is there already any tendency how do you think the next year's bundle rate might look like? Also in this context, how is your experience about the weak bundle price increase this year to spread into the commercial plans? How is the mechanism also time wise? Do you see where an immediate impact from CMS price?

Speaker 11

Then a few months later, you see also commercial prices to adapt also a slower increase. So that would be very helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Thanks, Oliver, for both those questions. Yes, look, I think the labor trends, I think we're balancing, as Martin said, balancing the merit increases and being selective about where we're paying for that labor, but offset by labor efficiencies, that's key. I think also, I'm really encouraged by another reduction of 500 open positions in Q1. And when I look at now this open position split between nurses and PCTs. Our split between nurses and PCTs.

Operator

Our overall turnover is also improving. So that and I think also about onethree of those hires that we now are getting in are what we call boomerangs, returning employees. So the benefit of that is we're making inroads into the open positions. We're hiring back experienced, tenured employees that require less training. And our overall turnover is improving as well.

Operator

I think we've also we have learned a lot from the summer of 2022. I think in terms of being able with our metrics to see those signals earlier in a clinic and also this kind of very dedicated use of temporary labor. So, I think the market doesn't feel like it was, but obviously in some areas, we're still watching it quite closely. I love the crystal ball of what the PPS rate is going to look like. And I jest about that of course.

Operator

But I think what we know is MedPAC has put out a suggested 1.8%. I hope that after these high spikes of cost inflation and things being a little out of control over the last few years, As things settle down, the reimbursement rates and the mechanisms that we have relied on for years come back into play and I don't know common sense or normality plays out. Saying that, we haven't built our guidance on egregious increases. So I think as you've said I know as we've said and been quite consistent, we have assumed moderate overall rate increases. And if they're higher, great.

Operator

So I think we're being cautiously conservative there and appropriately so until we know anything else.

Speaker 11

Okay. Thank you. And regarding the spillover from the bundle rate into the commercial contracts, What's your answer?

Operator

Yes, sorry. I missed that second part of that question. My apologies. Look, the commercial rate both MA and commercial are obviously contracted separately. We obviously take into account what when we're entering into any negotiation, it's kind of taking the impact of the PPS rate as a baseline into those negotiations and always kind of a healthy trade off between volume and price, network adequacy and coverage.

Operator

So I think our overall guidance is moderate overall rate increases. So I think the what we we have a new Head of Contracting Strategy who is really terrific. And I think overall, helping us with our future contracting strategy here. They're not all automatically linked to the PPS rate. I think you know that.

Operator

Some have escalators in them and CPI. So they're all quite different. But overall, as I said, we're assuming a moderate increase of the 1% to 2% rate. So yes, I think everything looks good and on track there.

Speaker 11

Okay, great. Thank you very much.

Speaker 1

So we have time for one last caller. Falko from Deutsche Bank.

Speaker 12

Thank you very much. Helen, I have 2 clarification questions on guidance, please. Firstly, on the same store treatment growth guidance and specifically the upper end, the 2%. Can we still consider that as a realistic average growth rate for this year? Or should we rather view this as a potential exit rate?

Speaker 12

And then look at the lower end, the 0.5% to 1% as a realistic average growth for this year? And then secondly, I was a little surprised that you confirmed your 2025 EBIT margin target again today. Is there actually still a realistic scenario in which you can get to a 14% margin next year? And if that's not the case, I'm just a little surprised that sort of you keep this type of aggressive hurdle here. Thank you.

Operator

Thanks, Falco. Yes, I think it's a fair question and it's obviously one that we are working through in real time on the back of a flat same market treatment growth in Q1. Obviously, we've got a guidance range out there. I think it's fair to assume that that 2% is more of an exit rate than an average rate at this point. And I think, obviously, as we get another quarter under our belt, we will refine or adjust or update accordingly.

Operator

On your second question, I don't feel it's aggressive. We clearly have a range out there for our EBIT margin. I think I've been pretty consistent in my commitments to try and give an update on that band itself by half 1. I think that is still my plan. You know me by now, I'm trying to take it a quarter at a time.

Operator

I'm really pleased with the progress. It's on track. And the financials and bottom line performance are clearly speaking for themselves. I know there's a question out there of what's it going to take to get to the top end of those EBIT margins, but I think the progress that we're making will continue to inform that. And for now, I'm not going to change it today, but clearly, it's top of mind for me knowing that by the time I get to half 1, the end of 2025 is only 18 months away.

Operator

So we'll continue to provide the appropriate color and kind of how we're seeing those guidance ranges as the year goes on.

Speaker 1

Okay.

Speaker 12

Thank you, Helen.

Operator

You bet, Taco.

Speaker 1

So we do run out of time. Thank you, everyone, for this contribution. This is great for I know what you all have a busy day. Thank you very much. We'll appreciate that.

Speaker 1

And we'll meet you on the road and our latest next quarter. Thank you.

Operator

Thanks, everyone. Thanks for your continued support. Take care.

Speaker 12

Take care.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now over. Thank you for choosing Chorus Call, and thank you for participating in the conference. You may now disconnect your lines. Goodbye.

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