Prosperity Bancshares Q2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
July 24, 2024

There are 15 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Prosperity Bancshares Second Quarter 20 24 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in a listen only mode. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Ms.

Operator

Charlotte Rasche. Please go ahead, ma'am.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Prosperity Bancshares' Q2 2024 Earnings Conference Call. This call is being broadcast live on our website and will be available for replay for the next few weeks. I'm Charlotte Rasche, Executive Vice President and General Counsel of Prosperity Bancshares. And here with me today is David Zalman, Senior Chairman and Chief Executive Officer H.

Speaker 1

E. Tim Tamanish, Jr, Chairman Asylbek Osmanov, Chief Financial Officer Eddie Safady, Vice Chairman Kevin Hannigan, President and Chief Operating Officer Randy Hester, Chief Lending Officer Mae Stavenport, Director of Corporate Strategy and Bob Dowdell, Executive Vice President. David Zalman will lead off with a review of the highlights for the recent quarter. He will be followed by Asylbek Osmanov, who will review some of our recent financial statistics and Tim Timanus, who will discuss our lending activities, including asset quality. Finally, we will open the call for questions.

Speaker 1

Before we begin, let me make the usual disclaimers. Certain of the matters discussed in this presentation may constitute forward looking statements for the purposes of the federal securities laws and as such may involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results or performance of Prosperity Bancshares to be materially different from future results or performance expressed or implied by such forward looking statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to be materially different than those in the forward looking statements can be found in Prosperity Bancshares' filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including Forms 10Q and 10 ks and other reports and statements we have filed with the SEC. All forward looking statements are expressly qualified in their entirety by these cautionary statements. Now, let me turn the call over to David Zelman.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Charlotte. I would like to welcome and thank everyone listening to our Q2 2024 conference call. We want to welcome the customers and associates from Lone Star State Bank of West Texas and are excited about our partnership. As previously announced on April 1, 2024, Prosperity completed the merger of Lone Star State Bancshares Inc. And its wholly owned subsidiary, Lone Star Bank, headquartered in Lubbock, Texas.

Speaker 2

Lonestar Bank operated 5 banking offices in the West Texas area. For the 3 months ended June 30, 2024, net income was $111,000,000 or $1.17 per diluted common share compared with $110,000,000 or $1.18 per diluted common share for the 3 months ended March 31, 2024. Net income and net income per diluted common share for the Q2 of 2024 were impacted by an increase in net interest income and a gain on the Visa Class B1 Stock Exchange net of investment security sales of $10,700,000 and partially offset by a merger related provision for credit losses of $9,100,000 and merger related expenses of $4,400,000 and FDIC special assessment of $3,600,000 and an increase in non interest expenses related to 3 months of Lone Star Bank operations. Excluding the merger related provision and expenses, the gain on the Visa Class B-one Stock Exchange net of investment security sales and the FDIC special assessment, each net of tax, net income was $116,000,000 or $1.22 per diluted common share for the 3 months ending June 30, 2024. And our annualized returns on average assets were 1.17% and our annualized return on average tangible common equity was 12.34% based on those numbers.

Speaker 2

We are also pleased that our net interest income before provision for credit losses was $258,000,000 for the 3 months ended June 30, 2024, compared with $238,000,000 for the 3 months ended March 31, 2024, an increase of $20,500,000 or 8.6 percent. In addition, our net interest margin on a tax equivalent basis was 2.94% for the 3 months ended June 30, 2024 compared with 2.79 percent for the 3 months ended March 31, 2024 and 2.73% for the same period in 2023. As mentioned on prior calls, these are the results that we anticipate these tailwinds should continue to be positive for the near future. Our loans were 22 point $3,000,000,000 at June 30, 2024, an increase of $666,000,000 or 3.1 percent when compared with $21,600,000,000 at June 30, 2023. Our linked core loans increased $1,056,000,000 or 5 percent from the $21,200,000,000 at March 31, 2024.

Speaker 2

Loans increased primarily due to the Lone Star merger. Excluding loans acquired in the Lone Star and First Capital Acquisitions and new production at the acquired banking centers since the respective acquisition date, loans at June 30, 2024 decreased $37,000,000 or 2 basis points when compared to last year, June 30, 2023, and an increased $63,000,000 or 3 basis points compared with March 31, 2024. Excluding these acquisition related loans and warehouse purchase program loans at June 30, 2024 decreased $152,000,000 or 8 basis points compared with March 31, 2024. Our deposits were dollars 27,900,000,000 at June 30, 2024, an increase of 552,000,000 or 2% compared with $27,300,000,000 at June 30, 2023. Our linked core deposits increased $757,000,000 or 2.8 percent from the $27,100,000,000 at March 31, 2024.

Speaker 2

The increases were primarily due to the Lone Star merger, excluding deposits assumed in the Lone Star and First Capital acquisitions and new deposits generated at the acquired banking centers since the respective acquisition days, deposits at June 30, 2024 decreased by 4 $70,000,000 or 1.8 percent when compared to last year June 30, 2023 and decreased by $298,000,000 or 1.2% compared with March 31, 2024. Historically, our deposits are seasonally lower in the second and third quarters and increased again in the 4th quarter. We have not purchased any broker deposits to offset the deposit loss and we do not currently intend to do so. Our bankers' focus is on building core deposits. Our net interest bearing deposits represented 34.7% of our total deposits at June 30, 2024.

Speaker 2

Our non performing assets totaled $89,000,000 or 25 basis points of quarterly average interest earning assets at June 30, 2024 compared with $83,000,000 or 24 basis points of quarterly average interest earning assets at March 31, 2024 62,000,000 or 18 basis points of quarterly average interest earning assets at June 30, 2023, with a significant portion of the balance for each period attributable to the acquired loans. At June 30, 2024, the allowance for credit losses on loans was $359,000,000 and allowance for credit losses on loans and off balance sheet credit exposure was $397,000,000 dollars The allowance for credit losses on loans was 4.02x the amount of non performing assets. With regard to acquisitions, we continue to have conversations with other bankers considering opportunities. We believe that higher technology and staffing costs, funding costs, loan competition, succession planning concerns and increased regulatory burden all point to continued consolidation. We remain ready to move forward in the event a transaction materializes and will be beneficial to our company's long term future and increased shareholder value.

Speaker 2

We are optimistic about the future and confident in our ability to create meaningful dollars $74,000,000 through share repurchases and $209,000,000 through cash dividends. With regard to the economy, CNBC recently announced that Texas was voted the 3rd best state for business in 2024. However, we believe we should have been number 1. Sorry, that's Texas humor. It's just a right trying to correct the wrong.

Speaker 2

Texas continues to shine as more people and companies move to the state because of the business friendly political structure and no state income tax. Prosperity continues to focus on building core customer relationships, maintaining sound asset quality and operating the bank in an efficient manner, while investing in ever changing technology and product distribution channels. We continue to grow the company both organically and through mergers and acquisitions. I want to thank everyone involved in our company for helping to make it the success it has become. Thanks again for your support of our company.

Speaker 2

Let me turn over the discussion to Asselbeck Osmanov, our Chief Financial Officer to discuss some of the specific financial results we achieved. Asselbeck?

Speaker 3

Thank you, Mr. Zalman. Good morning, everyone. Net interest income before provision for credit losses for the 3 months ended June 30, 2024 was $258,800,000 an increase of $20,500,000 compared to $238,200,000 for the quarter ended March 31, 2024, an increase of $22,300,000 compared to $236,500,000 for the same period in 2023. The increase was partially due to operation of Lone Star Bank acquired on April 1, 2024.

Speaker 3

During the Q2 2024, we recognized purchase accounting provision expense of $9,100,000 related to the Lonestar acquisition. In addition, fair value loan income was $7,200,000 for the Q2 compared to $1,900,000 for the Q1 of 2024. The net interest margin on a tax equivalent basis was 2.9 4% for the 3 months ended June 30, 2024 compared to 2.79% for the quarter ended March 31, 2024 and 2.73% for the same period in 2023. Excluding purchase accounting adjustments, the net interest margin for the 3 months ended June 30, 2024 was 2.86% compared to 2.76% for the quarter ended March 31, 2024 and 2.7% for the same period in 2023. Non interest income was $46,000,000 for the 3 months ended June 30, 2024, compared to $38,900,000 for the quarter ended March 31, 202439,700,000 for the same period in 2023.

Speaker 3

Higher non interest income during the Q2 of 2024 includes a net gain of $10,700,000 resulting from Visa stock conversion, partially offset by the loss on sale of investment securities. Non interest expense for the 3 months ended June 30, 2024 was $152,800,000 compared to 135 $800,000 for the quarter ended March 31, 2024 145,900,000 dollars for the same period in 2023. The linked quarter increase was primarily due to merger related expenses of $4,400,000 3 months of Lone Star Bank operation and FDIC special assessment of 3,600,000 dollars For the Q3 of 2024, we expect non interest expense to be in the range of $141,000,000 to 143,000,000 dollars The efficiency ratio was 51.8 percent for the 3 months ended June 30, 2024 compared to 49.1 percent for the quarter ended March 31, 2024 53 point 2% for the same period in 2023. Excluding merger related expenses, FDIC special assessment and net gain on sale of securities, the efficiency ratio was 49.1 percent for the 3 months ended June 30, 2024. The bond portfolio metrics at sixthirtytwenty twenty four have a modified duration of 4.1 and projected annual cash flows of approximately $1,900,000,000 And with that, let me turn over the presentation to Tim Timanus for some details on loan and asset quality.

Speaker 3

Timanus?

Speaker 4

Thank you, Asselbeck. Our non performing assets at quarter end June 30, 2024 totaled $89,570,000 which is 40 basis points of loans and other real estate compared to $83,811,000 or 39 basis points at March 31, 2024. This represents a 6.87% increase. Since June 30, 2024, dollars 2,517,000 of nonperforming assets have been removed or put under contract for sale. The June 30, 2024 non performing asset total was comprised of $84,497,000 in loans, $113,000 in repossessed assets and $4,960,000 in other real estate.

Speaker 4

Net charge offs for the 3 months ended June 30, 2024 were $4,368,000 compared to net charge offs of $2,143,000 for the quarter ended March 31, 2024.

Speaker 2

This is a $2,225,000

Speaker 4

increase on a linked quarter basis. There was a $9,066,000 addition to the allowance for credit losses during the quarter ended June 30, 2024, resulting from the Lone Star State Bank of West Texas acquisition. No dollars were taken into income from the allowance during the quarter ended June 30, 2024. The average monthly new loan production for the quarter ended June 30, 2024 was $278,000,000 compared to $308,000,000 for the quarter ended March 31, 2024. Loans outstanding at June 30, 2024 were approximately 22 point 321,000,000 at March 31, 2024.

Speaker 4

The June 30, 2024 loan total is made up of 41% fixed rate loans, 30% floating rate loans and 29% variable rate loans. I'll now turn it over to Charlotte Rasche.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Tim. At this time, we are prepared to answer your questions. Our call operator will assist us with questions.

Operator

We will now begin the question and answer session. And the first question will come from Peter Winter with D. A. Davidson. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Good morning. Good morning. Really nice margin expansion this quarter, even if I exclude the purchase accounting accretion. Can you just give an update on that NIM outlook by Q4? It seems like you can do better than the 3% and how you're thinking about the NIM into next year?

Speaker 3

Peter, this is Aslbek. I think we have to look at our NIM, what happened in the Q2. So we had 2 things happening, right? It was our organic growth on NIM that we expected, plus we had a Lone Star acquisition that helped. So those two combination gave us pretty good lift in the margin.

Speaker 3

So if you look at our model, I think it's still showing improvement on the margin, continuous improvement on the margin going forward. And for the Q4, I think we expect being a little bit better. But right now, we say that our exit margin will be around 3% as we guided. So it has not changed since then, but we expect for better as we hope we continue to grow loans and manage our deposits.

Speaker 2

I think, Peter, I could probably give you a little bit more reassurance or at I feel like I can. I think the net interest margin at least from the models that we have shows that again that I think we'll hit what we said. The Queen Mary is turning around in the driveway out there. I think that we're going to be able to hit what we have said we'll hit by the end of the year. I think maybe even like you said maybe a little bit better.

Speaker 2

But our 6 month, 12 month and 24 month net interest margins really show that we should continue to increase up or down 200 basis points in our model. So I think that we're definitely on the right track. I think in 12 months, we're showing about a 3% 2 percent net interest margin. This is just a model. This is a static model.

Speaker 2

I mean, loans stand where they're at, deposits stand where they're at in 24 months, I mean, we start getting back up. Well, I'm not going to put what our model says because I think it looks too high, but I'd say we'll still be maybe back to what our normal net interest margin is. Historically, it was probably about 3, 4 year and that's what we're shooting for right now. And I think that's the way it should get. As far as net interest income, that may be another I mean, we like seeing the net interest income go up.

Speaker 2

But again, as interest rates if interest rates do drop that would be pressure on the net interest income. That's the good and it will take time to reestablish what the interest expense will be and also goes into consideration what's rolling off at the same time that we have and re pricing. So all of that goes. So what I'm saying is there could be some noise in those numbers short term, but long term, I think this model is correct. And I've seen it go when we started talking last year at 2.73 to almost read where we're at today and I think I'd see it going forward.

Speaker 5

Got it. Thanks, David. And then just one more question. Just loan can you just talk about loan demand, maybe provide an update on the competitive landscape for lending? We did see some pressure on period end loans from legacy Prosperity.

Speaker 5

And then also just continued runoff from First Capital, are we getting closer to the bottom there?

Speaker 6

Yes, this is Kevin. I think we are Peter, I think it's going to be aided by the prospect of rate cuts, which I think is going to both stabilize deposits. In fact, we were talking earlier in the week that is the prospect of rate cuts that a lot of money that moved off the banking industry's balance sheet into treasuries will work its way back into the bank. I think we're talking about that on Monday. And lo and behold, yesterday, we had a client move back in the process of moving back in about $20,000,000 out of treasuries back into a money market account here at the bank.

Speaker 6

But it will also aid in the way people are thinking about growing their business. So I think going back through our guidance so far for the year, we started off the year with 3% to 5% growth in core loans. Q2, we backed that off a little bit saying that probably towards the lower end of back end loaded, and that's where we sit today. It's still very, very competitive out there for almost everything we look at. And so it's still a knife fight when it comes down to rates and things of that nature.

Speaker 6

But I'd say in the last couple of weeks, we've seen particularly in our middle market customers who in the short run are more likely to to be borrowing more as construction projects we approve may not fund for 6 or 9 months from now. Some renewed optimism in where the economy is going in some inventory builds and some folks impact expanding plant and equipment. So I think the second half is going to has a prospect of being much better aided by the general belief that rates are going to moderate.

Speaker 2

I think it's also I could say that we where deposits have been and now the competition has been, we have had opportunities to increase our position in some shared credits that we've had. But again, I think our terms and conditions, we kind of toughened up a little bit to holding that we really want to keep. Still want to build customers that have true relationships with us. And I think that's held us back a little bit too. But that's by design, we've kind of pulled back ourselves, hoping and waiting till we see the turnaround and deposits and all that stabilize and come back to the bank.

Speaker 2

Tim, did you say?

Speaker 4

Yes. I think everything you guys are saying is absolutely correct. What's been encouraging to me is when we talk to existing customers and potential new customers about prospective future loans, They all have things that they want to do. They have projects that they want to start. So there's a fair amount of enthusiasm about trying to get things moving and do things.

Speaker 4

And they're all sitting there waiting for a rate cut is the bottom line. And I think any rate cut at all will make them feel better. I think if you get as much as 100 basis points rate cut, which won't happen day 1 with a cut, I wouldn't think, but maybe it would. I think you'll see some projects coming off the desk and moving forward. So I'm reasonably optimistic that things are going to be better as we move forward in the year, certainly into next year.

Speaker 5

That's great. Thanks for all the color.

Operator

The next question will come from Manan Gopfalia with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Hi, good morning.

Speaker 2

Good morning.

Speaker 7

On either loan yields or NIM, are you able to separate out how much of the expansion came from the core Prosperity portfolio and how much came from the Lone Star acquisition?

Speaker 3

Yes. If you look at our margin expansion and I was going to talk the core NIM improved from 276 to 286. Our organic was very similar, maybe a basis point better than what we did from Q4 of last year to Q1 and the rest of them came from Lonestar acquisitions. So I think if we looked at it like fifty-fifty increase was between Lonestar and organic.

Speaker 7

Got it. And that organic expansion is coming from the fixed rate asset repricing?

Speaker 6

Yes. The repricing story continues and we expect it to continue from here.

Speaker 7

Got it. And then maybe if you can just speak to some trends in the deposit side, what are you seeing on NIB excluding what you got from Lonestar? And just as you're thinking about downside deposit betas and rate cuts from here, how should we expect deposit portfolio to behave?

Speaker 6

Thanks. I don't know about the best answer on this, but I'll give it a shot and you guys can tag in. I think as we look at the month of July, I'd say it's still fierce out there. I mean, we still get some requests for modifications off of rate sheet, but stabilization would be the word I would use. I mean through Tuesday anyhow last time, I haven't looked at the balance sheet for today, core deposits outside of public funds are actually up, not very much, but they're up.

Speaker 6

They're not there wasn't brackets around it and that was encouraging for us to see. So I think stabilization and to the extent we do have rate cuts, I think that will improve even more so.

Speaker 2

I think that's exactly right. I mean, that's what I'm seeing is stabilization. I think that we also will see deposits as we quit competing against the government and the treasuries and interest rates come down. I think you'll see more people coming back into the bank. So I think we see that.

Speaker 2

Just I always keep in mind though this is a quarter for us where we you can go back historically and we've always lost deposits this quarter and next quarter seasonally just because of our public funds. So keep that in mind. I think overall, our overall feeling is that deposits are we never really went out and bought broker deposits. We really want to stay where we're at. And so I think we all feel about the same.

Speaker 6

Yes. Look, we didn't like a lot of banks that had higher loan to deposit ratios had the need to go chase deposits with rate. We just never really chase through rate. I think we've maintained our money market stated money market rate at 3% on the high end and there's been some exceptions above that. But and you could say, well, that decision cost us to lose some deposits over the last couple of years, not a ton, but last couple of quarters.

Speaker 6

I think I may view it on the other side of it. We found out just how strong the core deposit franchise is with people sticking with us. If you just look at our overall cost of funds, you guys got it for the universe of banks out there. Our cost of funds is significantly better than most of our peers.

Speaker 4

And I think you hit a high point there when you mentioned people staying with us, sticking with us. When I talk to customers and potential customers, they're into treasuries for the obvious reason, the yield. But their preference is to have the money with us and they'll say that. They really prefer not to have all their money with the federal government for whatever reason. That's our own decision.

Speaker 4

But it's good to hear that dialogue and how many of them say, we really want to start moving money back to you guys. Now proof is in the pudding, whether they do or they don't. But I think there is a desire to do so. And if the treasuries weaken some more, I think you'll see more money coming our way.

Speaker 7

That's great color. Thank you so much.

Operator

The next question will come from Dave Rochester with Compass Point. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Hey, good morning guys.

Speaker 3

Good morning.

Speaker 8

Maybe just to round us out on the loan discussion, it looked like the First Bank loans were down maybe almost 25% since the deal closed, but it sounds like that's stabilizing here. How are you thinking about the potential runoff at Lonestar? Is there anything in that book that you want to get rid of? And then outside the core loans on the warehouse side of things, how are you thinking about that trend from here? It looked like you guys saw some good seasonality this quarter, so we get to hear what you're thinking on that front going forward.

Speaker 8

And are you still adding clients to that business or is it steady state right now? Thanks.

Speaker 6

Yes. Let me I guess there's 2 parts to that question. And as it pertains to Lone Star, very, very different bank than First Capital, really good credit quality loans we really like underwritten, the way we like to underwrite them. So I don't expect much runoff out of that portfolio, really clean. I mean, when we did due diligence, it's not often for Randy Hester to say this is a really clean bank.

Speaker 6

And he led the due diligence team when he came back, but this thing is clean. So I don't think we'll have a ton of runoff off of that portfolio. It's a really good bank, really love the people. It's a good deal for us. Warehouse, let me answer the customer question first.

Speaker 6

We've actually let a number of customers go over the last 15 months. I think our peak customer count in that business was either 43 or 44 customers and we're down to I think 32. And a lot of that was either rate and or more recently performance where they might not have been doing as well and we either reduced our exposure to them or eliminated it. So we it's not that we were losing customers, it's we flat out fired a bunch of them. Now the customers we've got have been really good to us.

Speaker 6

As you said, we're into the seasonal period of this business, which seems to be lost in all the years of refi and echo refi booms and all the other things. We're back to business as usual. And I got to tell you when I said we'd average 900,000,000 dollars for Q2, at the end of May, I was a little worried we weren't going to get there. April May were pretty weak and then June was very strong. The strength of June has continued into July through last night.

Speaker 6

The average for July is $1,105,000,000 So I expect that to continue through August and maybe moderate just a little bit seasonally in September. And part of that will be what happens with rates. I'm not saying September may not moderate as much as usual if rates abate a little bit. So if I had to put a number on where I think we average for the quarter, I'd say on the very low side, just to be conservative, dollars 975,000,000 but more likely in the $1,000,000,000 to $1,025,000,000 range. Okay.

Speaker 6

And Kevin,

Speaker 4

I would add, you look at the comparison between Lone Star and First Capital, for example, in our nonperforming assets as of June 30, about $36,000,000 is First Capital, in other words, about 40%. On the Lonestar side, it's about $2,000,000 about 2%. And I think that's indicative of what Kevin mentioned about the difference in the quality of the portfolios. I would be surprised if we had big drops in loans outstanding from either one of them at this point in time. I think we've pretty well identified the problems at First Capital.

Speaker 4

There's always surprises down the road, but I wouldn't think they would be overly material. So I think we're seeing some stabilization there.

Speaker 8

Great. That's very helpful. And maybe switching to M and A. Appreciate all the opening comments there on that front. I was wondering what the conversation level was like at this point.

Speaker 8

Has that picked up at all with stock prices moving in the right direction here to levels possibly closer to where sellers, seller expectations would be? And what do you think the chances are you do get a deal done here over the next year? And then absent the deal, how do you guys think about buybacks going forward with the stock trading where it is, but with capital likely continuing to grow at a fairly decent clip here

Speaker 3

over the next

Speaker 2

year? There's no question, I think after you saw the conventions and all the political stuff that's going on right now, there was a lot of optimism a week or so ago about if there is a change in administration or there is a change that would be more favorable to banks and I think that's true. I think if you saw a change of administration you would see more M and A going on. And I think that it even it stirred up a lot of people. We do have more costs coming in.

Speaker 2

I think it's the last week or so or the last few days or so, it's kind of mitigate a little bit. Nobody really knows which way it's going. But I think if you do see a change in administration, you definitely will see a big uptick in the M and A market.

Speaker 8

Okay, great.

Speaker 3

Yes, on the buybacks?

Speaker 2

On the buybacks. Yes, I think that you're right. We seem to be making good money and even it shows that we're even continue to make more and more money. But when our stock does go down like it did that was unfairly and we felt was an unfair price, we're going to probably always jump in and buy back.

Speaker 8

All right. Great. Thanks, guys.

Operator

The next question will come from Catherine Mealor with KBW. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Thanks. Good morning. I just wanted to follow-up on the margin conversation. You mentioned targeting maybe with some upside a 3% margin by year end 2024 and then maybe hitting around 320 percent by mid-twenty 5 percent and that's what you've told us before. How should we think about the initial downside to margin once we start to see cuts?

Speaker 9

Is there I know you mentioned that there might be some volatility. Is there a scenario where the margin declines? Or is there still enough back book asset repricing to where the margin still is going to continue to move up throughout 2025, just maybe not at as high of a pace as we factor in the cuts?

Speaker 2

Again, I don't have exactly what the exact numerics that you're looking for. But I would say that basically it goes back to what I said. There will probably be noise in it. But I think the numbers that we gave to you should we should end up there by those periods of time. So it just may be noisy until you can get things readjusted.

Speaker 2

But we really feel comfortable with this model. Been around for 25 years as long as I've been here. So it's we have a lot of confidence in it. So we think we will get there. But I think again, I think it could be noisy.

Speaker 2

We'll try to look in more to what you're asking the actual numerics. There could be short term changes like when the prime drops like that and we don't get to change the we don't get to change the interest rates immediately or it takes time or there's the asset that's repricing. So I know exactly what you're asking and it's a good question for us too and we'll work more on that.

Speaker 3

Yes. And then just to add to that, our balance sheet has been neutrally positioned when we looked at and we run some models A

Speaker 2

drop down.

Speaker 3

Yes, up and down. So when we run some models down 50 basis points, our model still shows that at the end of the quarter or end of the year at exit, net interest margin still holds up around 3%. So even with that, we feel confident where we are. And I think That's

Speaker 2

a good point. I see that list this week. He even had 50 basis points going down. We still end up with 3 basis points.

Speaker 3

Yes, because it's neutral position and we still have a tailwind of our security repricing from 2%, we have repricing at 5 plus percent. That's our tailwind that's helping us. So with that, I don't think that there's much change even with 50 basis points. But personally, I believe we're going to have maybe 1 cut rather than 2 cuts.

Speaker 2

Well, and a caveat, this is a static balance sheet. I mean, the loans dropped dramatically or deposit dropped dramatically or increased either one way. That all affects this. When we

Speaker 3

talk, we're talking really a static balance sheet analysis.

Speaker 9

Okay. That's helpful. And can you remind us, do you have the dollar amount of fixed rate repricing maybe the back half of this year and then into next?

Speaker 2

I don't know we have it with the next year. Historically, we've said we have about $2,000,000,000 in bonds that are repricing and on the loan side we had how much for

Speaker 3

So loans are cash flow, we'd say about $5,000,000,000 but out of $5,000,000,000 $6,000,000 is about 40%. And so that's going to be repricing on the loan side and $2,000,000,000 of securities that is the Yes.

Speaker 6

I think the fixed is closer to $60,000,000 the fixed and variable is closer to $60,000,000 Okay.

Speaker 3

Yes. Maybe I'd expect about that 60% on the fixed on the loan side and

Speaker 6

So $3,000,000,000 a year, dollars 1,500,000,000 in the back half

Speaker 10

of the year.

Speaker 3

And $1,000,000,000 from the security in 6 months. So there.

Speaker 9

Got it. Okay, that's helpful. All right, great. And then maybe just one more margin question. You've talked about excess cash building to $1,500,000,000 to $2,000,000,000 That's still your plan for the back half of the year or, really kind of coming back on the lower end of that range?

Speaker 2

That would be a yes and as I can convince the Federal Reserve to change your opinion of what's liquidity. Again, I talk with them. It's really crazy because we have $15,000,000,000 of lines of credit that's between the Federal Home Loan Bank and the Federal Reserve and we really consider that a phone call and it can drop. So we used to with not a lot of liquidity because we could just draw on our lines. But again, after the Silicon Valley deal and Signature and all that.

Speaker 2

I mean everything changed and they came up with this deal. But the truth of the matter is you had $1,500,000,000 on hand and there was truly a real run that wouldn't be enough. You have to draw on these lines and we probably have more liquidity. We have probably more lines available than anybody in our average accounts like 30 $1,000 So I'm hoping we can convince them to change. It probably will over time, it probably won't be right away.

Speaker 9

Okay. And especially if you're considering M and A maybe to be on the high end is a safer place to be?

Speaker 2

Say that again. The high end. Especially if

Speaker 9

you're considering M and A having excess liquidity is probably a safe place to be.

Speaker 6

We've come a long way in building the cash already. I mean, it's part of this was the security sale in the quarter that helped.

Speaker 3

And that cash flow from our investment portfolio.

Speaker 9

Yes. For sure. All right, great. That's all I got. Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question will come from Brett Rabatin with The Hub Group. Please go ahead, sir.

Speaker 10

Hey, guys. Good morning.

Speaker 2

Good morning, Wayne. Good morning.

Speaker 10

I wanted to ask the M and A question in a different way. I feel like the regulators have some idea they'd like to see deals announced that are out of market, low branch closures. And so I wanted to ask, if you're thinking about M and A, do you have to get on a plane to have talks or can you still drive a car I. E. In Texas?

Speaker 10

Any comments, David, you have on whether in state or out state might be more likely for you?

Speaker 2

Well, I think it goes back to my conversation. There's a change in administration. I don't think it's going to matter if it's in Texas or another state. Right now, I think that you're probably right. They'd like to see something.

Speaker 2

I mean, the whole philosophy and again this is coming down from the upper administration not just the heads of the FDIC or the OCC that's really coming back from their bosses upstairs. They FTC and everybody they'd rather see stuff that you're not closing down something. But again, I think that there's a change of and I can even tell the tone and probably have some of them listening, they'll probably call me in a minute after I'll get through. But I think the tone is changing. I think that they are looking to know that we do have to have some M and A.

Speaker 2

And my gut feeling is it will unless the administration doesn't change then I think we're back to where we were. I could say we're back to where we were, but even I don't even know that I would go that far. I do think that the tone of the regulators is changing. I think when you add Silicon Valley Bank close, you had Signature Republic, I mean all of that. It made every it made all the regulatory agencies unnerved.

Speaker 2

And I think it's taken them a little bit of a while just to get a handle on where all the banks are and where they're comfortable. I think that is happening. So I think either way, it will be somewhat better, the tone will be somewhat better. But if the administration changes then I think you're going to have like a little mini boom probably.

Speaker 6

And Brent, keep in mind, it's a 10 hour car drive from Houston to far West Texas.

Speaker 10

Fair enough. The other question I wanted to ask was, this quarter you had a provision, last year you had 1 quarter with a provision. How should we think about any thoughts on thinking about provisioning from here? And I know that obviously depends on if loan growth reaccelerates what have you, but

Speaker 2

I'll start by going to answer a minute, but the provision this time was just solely based on our CECL calculation $350,000,000 I'm talking from top of my $359,000,000 in reserve, $397,000,000 if you count what's in our other reserve for unfunded loans and we have 80 something $1,000,000 in loans. So we have over 4 times the amount of we have over 4 times the amount of reserves is what we have is non performing. So I think we're pretty good right there. Yes.

Speaker 6

But the only reserves we put up in the last couple of years have been acquisition related, the day 1 CECL numbers. So the two points in time you're referencing were both acquisition related.

Speaker 3

Yes. Well, Q2 of last year and Q2 both related. First, last year was First Capital Bank acquisition. This quarter's Lone Star per CECL rules and GAAP rules, you have to put provision expense on the loans you're bringing over. That's a rule change.

Speaker 3

And that but there was no provision on ourselves.

Speaker 6

Yes. I think it's safe to say unless something changes materially and we look at this every quarter and we run our models, but in our minds, things would have to change pretty materially for us to be thinking about posting provision this year. Right. Not outside of the acquisition.

Speaker 10

Okay, great. And maybe just lastly on the expense guidance, $141,000,000 to $143,000,000 in the Q3. Is that net of expense savings? Can you maybe give us a little more color on how you get to that number in 3Q?

Speaker 3

Yes. Just this quarter, we had a little bit higher because of extraordinary items and we had some projects we had. So that's why we came a little bit higher. But $141,000,000 $143,000,000 is including the Lone Star operation we're going to have. And that's in combination we're going to still continue to have some savings from the Lone Star acquisition, but we're working on some project that's going to run up the expenses.

Speaker 3

So in the net net, it's going to offset each other. That's why our guidance did not change from $141,000,000 to $143,000,000 And we feel pretty confident about that on the Q3.

Speaker 10

Okay, great. Appreciate all the color.

Operator

The next question will come from Michael Rose with Raymond James. Please go

Speaker 6

ahead. Hey, thanks for taking my questions. Just wanted to clarify on the sorry to go back

Speaker 11

to the margin, but the exit rate for the 4th quarter

Speaker 6

Can you

Speaker 11

guys hear me?

Speaker 2

Yes, we can.

Speaker 11

Sorry about that. So the active rate for the Q4, is that on a core basis? Or would that include the accretion income? And just separately, Asobank, what would you expect to what's the schedule accretion for the next couple of quarters? Thanks.

Speaker 3

Okay. I'll answer the second question first. So our expectation that normalized accretion for the Q3 will be $4,500,000 for Q3. And so when we gave guidance of being a 3% at exit, that's including the normalized, I would say, run rate or fair value income.

Speaker 11

Okay. So that's inclusive of the purchase accounting accretion.

Speaker 10

Okay.

Speaker 8

That's perfect. Yes.

Speaker 11

And then separately, just I noticed that the trust fees were down this quarter. I just wanted to see if there's anything in there. I think most banks have actually seen that up a little bit. So any color would be great. Thanks.

Speaker 3

Yes. I think our trust income kind of stayed the same as we are. We did not lose any customers. What happened in the Q2, we had some one off ordinary income in the I'm sorry, on the Q1, we had some extraordinary income came in. There was the trust, I think, sale or not sale, it was Estate fee.

Speaker 3

Yes, estate fee came in. That's why it was unusual in the Q1. But what we have $3,600,000 that's a normal run rate. And if you look at Michael from the last year to this year 6 months, our trust income up by more than $1,000,000 So it just looks like it went down, but there was unusual event happened in Q1.

Speaker 2

In fact, our trust assets continue to grow year over year. A lot of deposits that were in the bank are in the trust department.

Speaker 3

That's correct.

Speaker 11

Yes. That's what I was asking. Also just last for me, just in the other expense or other income that was down about $2,200,000 Q on Q. Any I know bumps around a little bit, but that's the lowest level we've seen in a while. Anything happened this quarter or offsets or anything we should consider?

Speaker 11

Thanks.

Speaker 3

Yes. There was nothing unusual. We usually have one off income every quarter here and there. And we had a significant one off income happen in the Q1, which we did not see this one. But I think the run rate where we had of I thought 36% to 38%, that's what the normal run rate and we should be expecting that in the Q3 and Q4.

Speaker 6

All right. Thanks for taking my questions.

Speaker 2

Thanks,

Operator

Michael. The next question will come from Brandon King with Truist Securities. Please go ahead.

Speaker 12

Hey, good morning.

Speaker 2

Good morning. Good morning.

Speaker 6

So I wanted

Speaker 12

to follow-up on expenses. I think you mentioned how there's some investments being made. So just how are you thinking about expense growth beyond the Q3? And what are you expecting also from an inflationary standpoint in your expense base?

Speaker 3

So I think looking like Q4, I think the expenses should stay stable. I don't think I don't see anything increasing significantly in the Q4. And going beyond, I mean, it's kind of hard to say, but we don't see anything significant. I know we're working on some projects that will have an increase in expenses for maybe 25, but I don't see anything significant, let's say that.

Speaker 2

And you've been accruing for some of those additional expenses, haven't you, a little bit that we'll be facing later on in June?

Speaker 3

Incurred, yes. The incurred expense we had not paid that we accrued in that. That was the 2nd quarter on additional expenses. But I would I think I gave guidance, so maybe like 2% to 3% increase year 2 or 3%. So that's probably what happens.

Speaker 3

But right now I can't think of anything.

Speaker 2

Brandon, it's always hard to come up with something like that. But again, if we don't if we've been very good at bringing our costs down and find a way to cut the cost if we don't have the income to come in to increase the expense. So we historically we found ways to keep it where it's at.

Speaker 12

Okay. And then a question on loan growth. I know before you mentioned how you've been holding more resi loans production on the balance sheet instead of selling it. But any updated thoughts there and how you're thinking about whether keeping more residential production on the balance sheet or maybe being more opportunistic in the secondary markets?

Speaker 6

I'd say more opportunistic in the secondary markets. We have curtailed, largely curtailed the growth in that portfolio. We do have I mean, we do take care of our core customers. We do have some one time close products that continue to fund up and complete. But in terms of new originations, they're down.

Speaker 6

And it was more a matter of balance sheet size in our case. The category got to be 33%, 34% Of the balance sheet, we just think that's a comfortable level for us and that high end of the comfortable level. So we've set pricing in that category to get paid for what we are going to produce and what we will produce. We hope in many cases, it will be available to the secondary market and we can generate some fee income through loan sales.

Speaker 12

Got it. And then lastly, also going back to your comment on I think purchase account increasing being $4,500,000 Is that just for Lonestar or is that total purchase accounting accretion for?

Speaker 3

That is all including the Lonestar FCB and other acquisitions. So it's in total.

Speaker 12

Okay. Thanks for taking my questions.

Operator

The next question will come from Jared Shaw with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Hi, good morning.

Speaker 13

Thanks. Just looking at the discussion around loan growth as well as the cash and securities, Where do you think a good exit rate for average earning assets is for the end of 2024?

Speaker 2

What's the exit rate?

Speaker 6

What would the average earning yield be?

Speaker 13

Yes, average earning assets at the end of the year.

Speaker 3

Yes. I think as we look at our model, we continue to grow see growth in that area. I mean, I don't know if I can pinpoint exactly what's going to be. I mean, right now in the Q2, we had 468. I think it's going to be continuing to increase.

Speaker 2

Well, it's hard because I mean if the Fed does come down on rates. It's rates related. I mean on a static basis, there's no question it would continue to go up. I think that would change if the rates are low. That's just a really hard question.

Speaker 7

Okay.

Speaker 13

Yes. Just in terms of using cash flow from securities to fund loan growth versus deposits, just trying to see where an exit rate could be given the loan growth expectation.

Speaker 2

Bad to ask on something like that, but again, it's going to be a lot really theoretical, I think, but we can look at it.

Speaker 6

Yes. And even the runoff of the securities, even to the extent we put it in cash, we're getting overnight $5.40 $5.40 So we're going from $2,000,000 to $540,000,000 even in those cash holdings. So it's well, it's a lost opportunity the extent that could have gone in the loans at something higher, it's still we're picking up 3.40 basis points.

Speaker 13

Yes. Okay. And then just the last for me, just circling back to something, David, you had said in your comments. If we look at lower rates, I think you had said margin should still be neutral, but that could spur deposits coming onto the balance sheet as well as some loan growth, but that NII could be under pressure. I guess just trying to square that how still seeing good growth with stable margins, you would think that that would be driving better NII?

Speaker 6

Yes. Well,

Speaker 2

again, this is just me again. I'm not I don't have the model in front of me. Just you would think that the net interest income would be harder to grow because interest rates are coming down. So to look at continued really increases in net interest income maybe tougher to do, but our net interest margin does show us with interest rates coming up or down 200 basis points still increasing over the next 6, 12 24 month timeframe. And that has to do with that even though net interest is coming down that's because the re pricing of the existing assets that we have as well as lowering the deposit expense that we have too.

Speaker 2

So you have a lot of moving parts in there and I agree with you. If you don't have these damn models, trying to square something like this in your hedge pretty hard. But I do feel very comfortable where we're at with these models.

Speaker 6

Yes. I think what Dave let me try to put another cut on maybe what David was saying because I do think NII is going to continue to grow. But there will be a period of time when our floating rate book moves down with rates overnight and deposits won't move as fast. Exactly. So when he talks about some little blip in the short run, like over 6 month period of time, it will be dampened a little bit because the deposit rates won't move down as fast as our floating rate loans move down.

Speaker 2

That's exactly what I'm trying to say. That's the noise that I can make.

Speaker 6

That's his version of the noise.

Speaker 13

Got it. Got it. Okay, great. Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question will come from Jon Arfstrom with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 14

Hey, thanks. Hi, everyone. David, maybe another way to ask some of these margin questions. You kind of alluded to it earlier, but what do you think a normalized margin is for Prosperity? I know it's a tough question, but you talked about $340,000,000 We're trying to get all these little nuances about what happens if rates go up or down.

Speaker 14

But what do you think

Speaker 12

given It's a

Speaker 2

good question. I think historically we went back and look in our historical net interest margin. I'm looking at Collin because he did this for me. So if I'm wrong jump in. But normally a normal net interest margin for us historically has been around 3.40.

Speaker 10

I think that's right. 3.30, 3.40.

Speaker 2

3.30, 3.40. There's been some highs and there's been some lows. But historically, that's where we would end up at.

Speaker 14

Okay. And do you think we had these liquidity discussions a quarter or 2 ago. Do you think is the balance sheet any different? Do you think that we can eventually get there?

Speaker 2

Absolutely. Yes. I mean, I think that we're again, I feel very comfortable with these numbers. They're not just made up. This is a model that we've used for the last 25 or 30 years and I really do believe in them.

Speaker 2

I mean, again, the only caveat I would say is like if there's a big change in loans up or down or big change in deposits up or down. So I see both of those as positive. I think that we've gone after COVID and the money drop into the banks, we just had so much money come in. We really didn't even pay much attention to it. And then the last year and a half or 2, I mean, we really been sucking wind with interest rates going up and deposits going out the other way.

Speaker 2

I really think that what happens is supposed to happen. I think that we're it's moving in our favor. I think that as interest rates come down, we do think that money that was outside the bank will come back in that from treasuries and people feeling better about it. And so that also provide more money for loans because people would do more loans because interest rates are going down that they put on hold right now that Tim mentioned a while ago. So I think it's all positive.

Speaker 2

But having said that, it's a crazy world. Things could go the other way. You never know. But just looking at it from common sense, it should we should be in a positive mode over the next 2 years for sure.

Speaker 6

Yes. I don't know if this will make any sense to you or not. But I'd say we were always confident in these NIM numbers we've been giving you and we've hit them consistently throughout the year. No delays, nothing else. We've been right on the mark.

Speaker 6

If anything, we've become increasingly confident. Yes, I think so,

Speaker 14

Okay. Okay. That's helpful. How about a return on tangible normalization? I mean, you can see it in the charts, right?

Speaker 14

I mean, obviously, it seems like it's a margin issue and you alluded to it, David. But what do you think is an appropriate return on tangible for your company?

Speaker 2

I think before again before the loss in earnings because of the net interest margin and the spread, I think we used to hit again jump in, Conan, if you want to also back. I think we see about 15% or 16% return on tangible capital. And I think that's fair and I think that's where we want to go again. But keep in mind too that we have a higher tangible capital than most banks. I mean, we're a lot of banks are 7% 8%.

Speaker 2

We're over our leverage ratio is over 10%. So again, we could probably be criticized for keeping so much capital, but again, it's been nice to have when we've been able to buy stock back. It's been nice to have in pursuit of an acquisition. So we can make that number even a lot higher right now, but we've elected to keep that capital high. So I think it is it's just we run that kind of bank.

Speaker 2

I mean, we try to always we're always covered. It's like my wife said, always have pairs of socks and underwear that you haven't used, why don't you keep buying them? But that's why we have extra capital right now.

Speaker 14

That's good. That's good.

Speaker 6

We have enough. That's a new one for me, David.

Speaker 14

I have a follow-up story for you, David, off the call.

Speaker 2

You're my right there.

Speaker 14

Just one more last one. Not a big deal in credit, obviously, it looks good, but you guys show your non owner occupied commercial real estate. You just talk a little bit about what you're seeing there when things come up for renewal and maybe the overall health of that book? Thank you.

Speaker 6

I'd say that book's really strong, competitive. We were looking at something the other day and our lender who brought in a relatively for us lower rate than we would have liked, I think he was talking $7.99 or something. He was highlighting all the banks on owner occupied who have special deals going that are somewhere between $7,000,000 $7.50 So it's a competitive side of the market right now. It's because you usually it usually comes with a full wallet. You end up getting the company's revolver, you get the treasury management business and it's been competitive.

Speaker 6

But in terms of credit quality, it's holding up very well.

Speaker 14

Okay, thanks. Appreciate

Speaker 9

it. Thanks.

Operator

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Ms. Charlotte Rasche for any closing remarks. Please go ahead, ma'am.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for taking the time to participate in our call today. We appreciate your support of our company, and we will continue to work on building shareholder value.

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Earnings Conference Call
Prosperity Bancshares Q2 2024
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