CVR Energy Q2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
July 30, 2024

Key Takeaways

  • Q2 consolidated net income was $38 million, EPS of $0.21, and EBITDA of $103 million, with results pressured by weak Group 3 crack spreads and a Wynnewood fire causing an estimated $50 million pre-tax hit.
  • The Board approved a $0.50 per share dividend for Q2, yielding approximately 7%, the highest among independent refiners.
  • Second-quarter petroleum throughput averaged 186,000 barrels per day at a 99% light product yield, with Wynnewood crude units fully restored and Q3 throughput guided to 200–215k bpd.
  • CVR is pursuing multiple legal actions to secure small refinery exemptions under RFS, buoyed by a DC Circuit ruling vacating EPA denials, though EPA’s final actions on 2023 and 2024 petitions remain uncertain.
  • The fertilizer segment posted $54 million in adjusted EBITDA with a 102% ammonia utilization rate amid robust spring demand, and CVR will receive about $7 million from CVR Partners’ $1.90/unit distribution.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
CVR Energy Q2 2024
00:00 / 00:00

There are 8 speakers on the call.

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the CVR Energy Second Quarter 2024 Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. A brief question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Richard Roberts, Vice President of FP and A and Investor Relations.

Operator

Thank you, sir. You may begin.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Christine. Good afternoon, everyone.

Speaker 2

We very much appreciate you joining us this afternoon for

Speaker 1

our CDR Energy 2nd quarter 2024 earnings call. With me today are Dave Lamp, our Chief Executive Officer Dane Newman, our Chief Financial Officer and other members of management. Prior to discussing our 2024 Q2 results, let me remind you that this conference call may contain forward looking statements as that term is defined under federal securities laws. For this purpose, any statements made during this call that are not statements of historical facts may be deemed to be forward looking statements. You are cautioned that these statements may be affected by important factors set forth in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission and in our latest earnings release.

Speaker 1

As a result, actual operations and results may differ materially from the results discussed in the forward looking statements. We undertake no obligation to publicly update any forward looking statements, as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except to the extent required by law. This call also includes various non GAAP financial measures. The disclosures related to such non GAAP measures, including reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures, are included in our 2024 Q2 earnings release that we filed with the SEC and Form 10 Q for the period and will be discussed during the call. With that said, I'll turn the call over to Dave.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Richard. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining our earnings call. Yesterday, we reported 2nd quarter consolidated net income $38,000,000 and earnings per share of $0.21 EBITDA was 103,000,000 dollars Our results for the quarter reflect the weakness in the refining product cracks in the Mid Con in addition to the downtime and increased expenses associated with the fire at the Wynnewood. We estimate total pre tax impact of our 2nd quarter results from the fire was approximately $50,000,000 which does not include the impact of any insurance recoveries that may be achieved in the future. We are pleased to announce that the Board of Directors has authorized a second quarter dividend of $0.50 per share, which will be paid on August 19 to shareholders of record at the close of market on August 12.

Speaker 3

Our trailing annualized dividend yield based on yesterday's close price is approximately 7%, the highest among independent refiners. In our Petroleum segment, combined throughput total throughput for the 2nd quarter of 2024 was approximately 186,000 barrels per day and light product yield was 99% on crude oil processed. Following the fire at Wynnewood in late April, we resumed operations of the number 1 crude unit within 2 weeks of the incident and the number 2 crude unit began operating in mid June. Wynnewood is currently operating at normal rates. Benchmark crack softened during the Q2 with the Group 3, 211 averaging $18.83 per barrel compared to $32.03 per barrel for the Q2 of 2023.

Speaker 3

Average RIN prices for the Q2 of 2020 4 also declined from the prior year period and ended the quarter at approximately $0.69 on an RVO weighted basis. Regarding the RFS, we were thrilled with last week's order from the DC Circuit vacating EPA's improper denial of dozens of petitions of other refiners seeking small refinery exemptions. While we await the text of this opinion, the outcome mirrors the 5th Circuit's damning opinion last year vacating EPA's denial of small refinery exemptions for Wynnewood and other refiners from 2017 to 2021. EPA has still not acted on those petitions despite 8 months since the remand. And we will and while we intend to oppose the writ of cert they filed for the Supreme Court, we think the favorable DC action DC Circuit action should work in our favor.

Speaker 3

As previously reported, we have a pending suit against EPA in the 5th Circuit for the denial of our 2022 petition. And earlier this month, we filed suit for the illegal failure to rule on our 2023 petition. We submitted our 2024 petition last week and the clock is ticking for EPA to act. We will continue to fight for small refinery exemptions for the small refinery exemptions what it deserves and also compel EPA to fix what we believe is EPA's clear violation of RFS by allowing non obligated parties to trade in and manipulate the RIN market. Supreme Court's recent overturn of the Chevron doctrine may represent an incremental positive for our efforts, though the ultimate impact remains to be seen.

Speaker 3

For the Q2 of 2024, we processed approximately 12,000,000 gallons of vegetable fuel oil through the pretreater and the renewable diesel unit at Wynnewood with throughput in the quarter indirectly impacted by the fire in April. The HOBO spread weakened slightly from the Q1 of 2024 with lower diesel prices and the D4 RINs remained depressed as a result of EPA's continued mismanagement of the RFS program. As a reminder, our renewable diesel business is currently reported within our Corporate and Other segment. In the Fertilizer segment, both facilities ran well for the quarter with a combined ammonia utilization rate of 100 and 2%. Nitrogen fertilizer prices were relatively consistent with 1st quarter pricing and we saw strong demand for nitrogen for the spring planting season.

Speaker 3

Now let me turn the call over to Dane to discuss our financial highlights.

Speaker 4

Thank you, Dave, and good afternoon, everyone. For the Q2 of 2024, our consolidated net income was $38,000,000 earnings per share was $0.21 and EBITDA was $103,000,000 Our Q2 results include unrealized derivative gains of $17,000,000 and an unfavorable inventory valuation impact of 1,000,000 dollars Excluding the above mentioned items, adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $87,000,000 and adjusted earnings per share was 0 point 0 $9 Adjusted EBITDA in the Petroleum segment was $37,000,000 for the 2nd quarter with the decline from the prior year period primarily driven by lower product cracks in Group 3 and reduced throughput volumes due to the downtime at Wynnewood. Our 2nd quarter realized margin adjusted for unrealized derivative gains and inventory valuation impacts was $9.81 per barrel, representing a 52% capture rate on the Group 3,211 benchmark. RINs expense for the quarter, excluding the mark to market impact was $40,000,000 or $2.33 per barrel, which negatively impacted our capture rate for the quarter by approximately 12%. The estimated accrued RFS obligation on the balance sheet was $312,000,000 at June 30, representing 471,000,000 RINs mark to market at an average price of $0.66 As a reminder, our estimated outstanding RIN obligation excludes the impact of any small refinery exemptions.

Speaker 4

Direct operating expenses in the Petroleum segment were $6.94 per barrel for the 2nd quarter compared to $5.46 per barrel in the Q2 of 2023. The increase in direct operating expenses was primarily driven by increased repair and maintenance expenses and lower throughput volumes as a result of the Wynnewood fire. Adjusted EBITDA in the fertilizer segment was $54,000,000 for the 2nd quarter with lower feedstock costs and direct operating expenses somewhat offsetting the decline in prices relative to the prior year period. Partnership declared a distribution of $1.90 per common unit for the Q2 of 2024. As CVR Energy owns approximately 37% of CVR Partners' common units, we will receive a proportionate cash distribution of approximately $7,000,000 Cash provided by operations for the Q2 of 2024 was $81,000,000 dollars and free cash flow was $7,000,000 Significant uses of cash in the quarter included $76,000,000 of capital and turnaround expenditures, dollars 52,000,000 for cash taxes and interest, dollars 50,000,000 for the first for the CVI Q1 2024 Dividend and $13,000,000 paid for the non controlling interest portion of the CVR Partners Q1 2024 distribution.

Speaker 4

Total consolidated capital spending on an accrual basis was $41,000,000 which included $33,000,000 in the Petroleum segment, dollars 5,000,000 in the Fertilizer segment and $2,000,000 for the RDU, primarily related to the pretreatment unit. Turnaround spending in the Q2 was approximately $3,000,000 For the full year 2024, we estimate total consolidated capital spending to be approximately $195,000,000 to $220,000,000 and turnaround spending to be approximately $55,000,000 to 65,000,000 Turning to the balance sheet, we ended the quarter with a consolidated cash balance of $586,000,000 which includes $48,000,000 of cash in the fertilizer segment. Total liquidity as of June 30, excluding CVR Partners, was approximately $790,000,000 which was comprised primarily of $539,000,000 of cash and availability under the ABL facility of $251,000,000 Looking ahead to the Q3 of 2024, for our Petroleum segment, we estimate total throughputs to be approximately 200,000 to 215,000 barrels per day, direct operating expenses to range between $95,000,000 $105,000,000 and total capital spending to be between $35,000,000 $40,000,000 For the fertilizer segment, we estimate our Q3 of 2024 ammonia utilization rate to be between 95% 100%, direct operating expenses to be approximately $53,000,000 to $58,000,000 excluding inventory impacts and total capital spending to be between $10,000,000 $15,000,000 With that Dave, I will

Speaker 3

turn it back over to you. Thanks Dane. In summary, petroleum market conditions remain challenging in the 2nd quarter and we would characterize 2nd quarter crack spreads as below mid cycle levels. Part of the 2nd quarter weakness in cracks can be attributed to high fleet utilization and somewhat lackluster refined product demand in the U. S, although demand in the Mid Con has remained within 5 year bands.

Speaker 3

Over the past week, we have seen an uptick in the benchmark cracks in the Mid Con, primarily driven by the tightness in the gasoline and diesel basis, likely due to unplanned downtime by other refineries in PADD 2. As I often say, the best cure for low prices is low prices. We already see an evidence of run cuts for more marginal refineries, particularly in Asia and Europe due to the weakness in refining margins in those areas. We believe there is more likely more to come in order to rationalize supply, which along with an increase in product exports or an uptick in U. S.

Speaker 3

Product demand on improved economic sentiment could provide additional support for refining margins. Turning to the fertilizer segment, the spring planting season went well and demand for nitrogen was strong. In July, we completed both summer UAN fill and the fall ammonia prepay and saw solid demand for both products at prices that were above 2023 fill pricing, better than most were expecting. We currently have a solid order book heading into the fall and UAN pricing has risen from summer fill prices. Finally, in renewables, we resumed planned operations at the renewable diesel unit in early June following the downtime associated with the Wynnewood fire in April.

Speaker 3

The pretreater for the renewable diesel unit is also operating at planned rates and so far we were seeing an improvement in renewable diesel yield and resulting economics at current market prices. Discussions are ongoing to the potential conversion of Wynnewood renewable diesel unit to 100 percent SAF and we expect to have a development plan together in the next few months for our larger project at Coffeyville. We continue to believe there will be a market for renewable diesel and sustainable aviation going forward. And while there is significant interest in the market from potential off takers for SAF, the bid ask spread remains fairly wide. In addition to these potential projects in renewables, we continue to explore strategic transactions both in refining and potentially related to the CBR partner, although we have nothing to report at this point.

Speaker 3

Looking at the Q3 of 2024 quarter to date metrics are as follows. Group 211 cracks have averaged $19.12 per barrel with the Brent TI spread of $3.22 per barrel and the WCS differential at $14.39 per barrel under WTI. Prop fertilizer prices are approximately $5.20 per ton for ammonia and $2.40 per ton for UAN. As of yesterday, Group 3 211 cracks were $21.74 per barrel. Brent TI was approximately $4 per barrel and WCS was $15.75 under WTI.

Speaker 3

RINs were $3.96 per barrel. As always, we continue to strive to operate our plants in a safe, reliable and environmentally responsible manner to explore opportunities to grow the company. We also continue to focus on maximizing free cash flow and protecting the balance sheet, while aiming to provide an attractive return to shareholders. With that, operator, we're ready for questions.

Operator

Thank you. We will now be conducting a question and answer session.

Speaker 5

So Dave mentioned potential insurance recovery regarding the $50,000,000 loss from the Wynnewood outage. Is there an expectation you can share for how much of that $50,000,000 you might see coming back and maybe a timeline as well?

Speaker 3

Well, we have a deductible and from a property and equipment standpoint is probably where most of that will come from. We don't really have a good estimate yet, but I'm guessing around $20,000,000 And the timeframe of getting it back is always an interesting process.

Speaker 5

Okay. Thank you. And then can you talk about the broader strategy around renewables in today's market? I know you have a couple of potential projects that are moving forward, but obviously, the margin environment is challenged right now. And I know this is all kind of pending finding agreements with partners.

Speaker 5

But are you waiting at this point to see if the market improves before you sanction these projects? Or do you remain confident in the long term viability of RD and staff such that you might take FID in a lower margin environment?

Speaker 3

Well, I think you got to remember how we got here. The RVO that was set for 3 years was set, I think basically for political reasons, if nothing else, with an election coming up to lower the price of gasoline and diesel. And that's what it manifests itself into is D4 were way under RV owed. And as a result, the rents dropped and there was largely the economics of RD. That said, if you still look at what the market offers even on a bean oil basis, you can eke out some profit just if you operate well at design rates and minimize your costs.

Speaker 3

So I think there's no question decarbonization is still going to be with us for a long time and probably the best material out there that can handle heavy machinery and such as renewable diesel, if you really want to reduce carbon. So I think that the market is there. And of course, from an SAF standpoint, really airlines really have no other alternative to really reduce carbon. So you could do ethanol to SAF, but if you look at the yields and the cost, it's almost identical to the SAF route via vegetable oils and waste oils. So I think it's around a long time, John, and our timing is we're not in a big hurry to push these things out.

Speaker 3

From an SAF standpoint and converting Wynnewood, we really want to have contractual terms that give us a return or we just won't do it. And the Coffeyville side is, this is really a deal where we're putting sweat equity into it, little bit of money to seed it. But bottom line is we're looking for partners that we could roll the winning one business in with and eventually monetize our investment there. So we're still positive on it. Timing is not perfect, but a new RBO will be coming out here with a new President and hopefully they'll put some sense into it and decouple 6s from 4s.

Speaker 3

And I think you'll see the market improve dramatically if that occur.

Speaker 5

Very helpful. Thank you, Dave.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 6

Good morning, Dave and team. I guess the first question just building on the UAN commentary was a very strong quarter at UAN in the fertilizer segment. Sometimes those of us in refining have less visibility into some of the comings and going of that segment. So can you talk about what you're seeing on the ground? Anything that's one time in nature or have we found a sustainable level of higher profitability?

Speaker 3

Well, I think, Neal, if you look at the market, it's really stabilized. I think it's kind of in balance and that's driven the prices back to what we would call mid cycle, dollars 520,000,000 and $250,000,000 on UAN, dollars 520,000,000 on ammonia and $250,000,000 on UAN is right in the wheelhouse of mid cycle. Farmer economics are still fairly good, although price of grains have dropped quite a bit, but they're still very profitable if you own the land, a little less if you're leasing the land. But as our customers go, we go. And I think the demand for fertilizers is quite strong as evidenced by our fill prepaid on ammonia and our fill on UAN.

Speaker 3

That's that kind of gives you a look into the market going forward. So it looks very positive to us.

Speaker 6

Thanks, David. And you talked a little bit about trying to figure out the right long term corporate structure around some of these assets from whether it makes sense to monetize the nitrogen business. But you've also talked over the years about if you're not a seller, then you could be a buyer. And just put that in the context of the refining business. Are there assets in the market that look interesting to you?

Speaker 6

And you've talked about diversifying outside of Group 3 as well. So how does that fit into the strategy?

Speaker 3

Yes. I think if you have any weakness in our company, it's we're concentrated in the Mid Con in one market with Cushing crudes and that's about it. Obviously, diversification away from that or in addition to that is a good thing. So, we look at everything that comes on the market and there are some interesting deals out there. We don't have anything to announce yet or even discuss, but we will look at everything and continue to look at everything just as we do with UAN and how it's structured in our continue to innovate on that look at all options.

Speaker 6

Thanks, Dave.

Speaker 3

You're welcome.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Paul Cheng with Scotiabank. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 7

Hey guys, good afternoon. Dave, I think in the past, you have at one point suggest that you may even consider to convert the Audi back into just running cool oil. Can you give us some idea that I mean, under what circumstances that you will make such a decision? And that what kind of timeline or that precondition that you are looking for?

Speaker 3

Well, Paul, I think if you look at the R and D business we have today is what it does is mitigate a lot of rents for us. And that has some value that we have to go out in the marketplace and buy it. Even if we may have a small loss on renewable diesel, we think that's a benefit to us going forward. But I am very confident that even in today's market, we can print the $0.30 to $0.40 a gallon profit pretty easily if we just run to design. And that's where we're at now.

Speaker 3

We're at a rate that's slightly reduced to really optimize our catalyst life. And if we get that all in line, get the cost in line, even under today's conditions, we think that can happen. Now, we do have the BTC expiring at the end of the year. There's legislation that's being proposed to extend it. What's going to happen?

Speaker 3

Nobody knows. But our view is that the RIN will respond if the BTC goes away almost dollar for dollar. And that will probably cement the RD economics even better. We really like our location in terms of being close to the ag belt. We still have exploring to do on the lower CI materials.

Speaker 3

Just recently, we got our CIs on both corn oil and bean oil reduced by 10, which helps us on the economics also. So we're in it for the long haul. We always keep an eye on it to what it would be what it would take for us switch back to hydrocarbon surface. And obviously, as where cracks are today, it's not a very hard decision to keep running RD.

Speaker 7

And take that, how far do you and do you what else do you need to take in order for you to be able to run the full design capacity? I mean, you are running more like 65%, 70%. So what needs to be changed in order you to be able to get to 95%, 100%?

Speaker 3

I didn't get your question,

Speaker 7

In your Wynnewood, your Audi facility currently, you're running at about 65% to 70% utilization rate or nameplate capacity. What will you take or what needs to be changed in order for you to be able to run that close to 100%? And how fast you can get there?

Speaker 3

Yes. Well, I think this run that we're at now with the pretreater, we're going to see at least a year of catalyst life. And that's going to bring our utilization right on up with it. To get to 100%, we're we as I mentioned, we're looking at how to optimize the catalyst load and how to get the maximum life out of it, which affects the economics tremendously. So we have cut back a little bit.

Speaker 3

We're running more closer to the 80,000,000 gallon rate right now and we plan to hold that for this entire run. And then we'll walk it up probably another 500 or 600 barrels something like that, 10%, 20% on the next load to really get us all the way up to the highest run we think we can optimize on.

Speaker 7

I see.

Speaker 3

It's going to take another cycle to do that.

Speaker 7

So you're talking about sometime by the end of next year?

Speaker 3

Yes, I'd say by the end of that, we should be on the 4th load and 5th load, excuse me. And that will give us curve we need and the data we need to know where the optimum is.

Speaker 7

I see. And Dave, you're talking about the EPA lawsuit. So what's the next step for you and then the timeline and the action that you're going to take? I mean that you sort of get a somewhat favorable ruling from the court, but that haven't been able to translate into anything yet. So what's the next step for you to be able to pursue?

Speaker 3

Well, the DC Circuit ruling was a big one, okay. That kind of confirmed the 5th Circuit ruling. So it took an appeal out of question, I think, for EPA to go to the Supreme Court to try to overturn those. But all that said, EPA may try to come up with some other lousy excuse deny small refinery waivers, which we'll have to battle. In the meantime, we have submitted our 24 small refinery waiver.

Speaker 3

Our 2023 has been pending for 5 months now and they missed the 90 day noted 90 day requirement by the law. So we're suing over that. So we continue to pile on, if you will, with lawsuits on this poor management by EPA on this whole ruling. And I did mention the other factor that we're petitioning the government to start rulemaking again on changing the obligated parties to only include people that are obligated parties to be able to trade or buy or sell or generate rents. The way it is today, anybody and their brother can do it.

Speaker 3

And that's led to manipulation. And I'll just use today's example of renewable diesel. If you looked at the RVO that was set and the volume of renewable diesel that's being produced, RIN should be 0, frankly. And because of all these other players in there hoarding RINs and hiding them and doing this and that, it's actually $0.60 or it's got as low as $0.32 I think and has whittled its way back up. So we're going to pursue that one also against EPA.

Speaker 3

So we got multiple fronts working.

Speaker 7

Nice. All right. Good luck on that. Thank you. Thank you.

Speaker 7

We'll need it. You're dealing with the government.

Speaker 3

Yes, that's right. Our next question

Operator

comes from the line of Matthew Blair with Tudor Pickering. Please proceed

Speaker 2

On Coffeyville, it looks like the crude diet reflected a nice move up to gathered barrels. Looks like you're gathering more of your own barrels and pushing out, I guess, it would be just like Cushing sourced barrels of WTI. Could you talk about how you're able to increase these gathered barrel volumes and uplift to your refining system?

Speaker 3

Well, I think what you're seeing there, Matt, is mostly the effect of the fire at Wynnewood. Normally, we'd run a lot of those barrels at Wynnewood and with Wynnewood out of commission for 2 weeks and at cutback for about almost 2 months. A lot of those barrels went to Coffeyville and it backed out domestic suite, which is domestic suite is the Cushing Common or commonly called WTI out of Cushing, which is a blended barrel. So, our strategy has always been to gather at the wellhead, pick and choose the most profitable crudes And we continue that. Our gathering right now is up to about 136,000 barrels a day, which is probably up, I don't know, over 5 years, probably about double, roughly.

Speaker 3

And it's really important for Wynnewood, because Wynnewood's configuration is it needs about a 48 gravity crude and because we take the VTBs and crack them in the cap and that requires certain quality crudes. So it's given us ability to do RD and a few other things that the fact that we have the gathered crude system.

Speaker 2

Sounds good. And then on the RD side, I just want to clarify. So for the pretreatment, should we expect that that will be fully online and contributing for Q3 and beyond because it looks like it wasn't really a factor in the Q2. Is that correct?

Speaker 3

Yes. Well, it was a factor in the Q2, but the fire kind of knocked our we should have made 19,000,000 gallons and we only did about 12,000,000. That was the effect of the fire. But our yield is up over 95%, which is a vast improvement over where we were without the pretreater. And the metals, everything looks the pretreater is really doing a fantastic job on pretreating.

Speaker 3

And it's really making a difference in what we see in the unit, the downstream unit. So it's expected to run forever from now on.

Speaker 2

Great. Thank you very

Speaker 1

much. You're welcome.

Operator

We have reached the end of the question and answer session. I would now like to turn the floor back over to management for closing comments.

Speaker 3

Again, I'd like to thank you for your interest in CVI Energy. Additionally, I'd like to thank our employees for their hard work and commitment towards safe, reliable and environmentally responsible operations. We look forward to reviewing our Q3 2024 results during our next earnings call. Thank you. Have a great day.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation

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