Nomura Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
July 30, 2024

There are 3 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good day, everyone, and welcome to today's Nomura Holdings First Quarter Operating Results for fiscal year ending March 2025 conference call. Please be reminded that today's conference call is being recorded at the request of the hosting company. Should you have any objections, you may disconnect at this point in time. During the presentation, all the telephone lines are placed for listen only mode. The question and answer session will be held after the presentation.

Operator

Please note that this telephone conference contains certain forward looking statements and other projected results, which involve known and unknown risks, delays, uncertainties and other factors not under the company's control, which may cause actual results, performance or achievement of the company to be materially different from the results, performance or other expectations implied by those projections. Such factors include economic and market conditions, political events and the investor sentiment, liquidity of secondary market, level and volatility of interest rates, currency exchange rates, security valuations, competitive conditions and size, number and timing of transactions. With that, we would like to begin the conference. Mr. Takumi Kitamura, Chief Financial Officer.

Operator

Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Good evening. This is Takumi Kitamura, CFO of Nomura Holdings. I will now give you an overview of our financial results for the Q1 of the fiscal year ending March 2025. Please turn to Page 2. Group wide net revenue came in at 54,400,000,000 yen up 2% over last quarter.

Speaker 1

Pretax income grew 12% to 102,900,000,000 yen while net income was RMB68.9 billion, an increase of 21% compared to last quarter. As you can see on the upper right, our earnings momentum has continued for 5 consecutive quarters. EPS was yen 22.36 and annualized ROE 8.1%. These results make a good start in our journey towards achieving our 2030 numerical target to consistently achieve ROE of 8% to 10% or more as announced at our Investor Day in May. As shown on the bottom right, 3 segment income before income taxes increased 12% to JPY 86,600,000,000.

Speaker 1

Wealth Management and Investment Management sub client assets continue to grow on the back of inflows, while stable recurring revenue and business revenue reached all time highs. We are making steady progress in expanding our stable businesses as announced at our Investor Day. While wholesale income before income taxes is just slightly quarter on quarter, we further diversified our revenue sources as spread products such as securitized products and credit had a strong quarter and equities remained robust. Next, let's look at the performance of each business starting with Wealth Management on Page 5. All percentages quoted from now on refer to quarter on quarter comparisons.

Speaker 1

Wealth Management 1st quarter net revenue increased 5% to JPY 114,000,000,000 and income before income taxes gained 9% to JPY 42,300,000,000, representing the highest levels in 9 years since fiscal year 2015 2016 Q1. Thanks to our large scale reorganization last spring and the further deepening of our segment based approach, we were able to deliver results as the mindset of our clients undergo a major shift from savings to investment. In contrast to the relentless rally in Nikkei last quarter, the market remained range bound throughout this quarter, yet we were able to deliver higher revenues compared to the strong prior quarter in each segment by offering services aligned to client needs. We made progress in our asset management recurring revenue businesses with recurring revenue at record high of 45,800,000,000 yen. As we grow revenues, we kept expenses down, particularly non personnel expenses, resulting in a higher recurring revenue cost coverage ratio of 64%.

Speaker 1

Please turn to Page 6 for an update on total sales by product. Sales of stocks were strong at 4,800,000,000,000 yen including 1,000,000,000,000 yen from a tender offer. That excluded sales of secondary stocks slowed. Total sales increased 9% to 6,800,000,000 yen. Sales of Investment Trusts were up 27% and discretionary investment contracts grew by 16%.

Speaker 1

Sales of insurance products increased by 38%. This underscores sound strong growth in sales of products and services where proposals and advice from sales partners leads to transactions. KPI on Page 7 are trending smoothly as shown on the top left. Net inflows of recurring revenue assets were RMB 387,900,000,000, representing a solid start towards achieving our annual target of RMB800,000,000,000. Recurring revenue assets shown on the right were at record high of 24,300,000,000,000 yen.

Speaker 1

The number of workplace services provided shown on the bottom right was 3,730,000 yen an extra 100,000 compared to the end of March. With the heightened focus on human capital management, we are seeing results from our efforts such as designing and proposing schemes for companies based on their objective and scope supporting information sessions for employees and elaborating with Investment Banking. Please turn to Page 8 for an overview of Investment Management. Net revenue increased 9% to JPY 47,700,000,000 and income before income taxes was up 31% at 23,200,000,000 yen. As shown on the bottom left, stable business revenue was 39,100,000,000 yen, a record quarterly high since the division was established.

Speaker 1

The Asset Management business had another strong quarter with net inflows lifting assets under management to a record high, driving steady growth in management fees. Investment gainloss booked at 54% drain to 8,600,000,000 yen primarily driven by private equity firm Nomura Capital Partners. Please turn to Page 9 for an overview of the Asset Management business, which generates business revenue. The top left shows June and assets under management of 92,500,000,000,000 yen representing the 6th straight quarter record high and outstripping our March 2025 KPI of 89,000,000,000,000 yen Quarterly net inflows shown on the bottom left were JPY 950,000,000,000, of which JPY 700,000,000,000 flowed into the Investment Trust business and JPY 260,000,000,000 into the Investment Advisory and International businesses. In the Investment Trust business, JPY410,000,000,000 flowed into Investment Trusts through a diverse range of distribution channels, including Nomura Securities, regional financial institutions and other securities firms.

Speaker 1

Balance funds, global stock funds and private assets all reported inflows. DC Funds also continued to grow with net assets under management surpassing 3,000,000,000,000 yen International was the main driver of the Investment Advisory and International businesses this quarter with inflows into U. S. High yield bonds and global stock funds. As you can see on the bottom right, we continue to build out our private asset Asset business with an alternative AUM topping 2,000,000,000,000 yen for the first time.

Speaker 1

That's an increase of 2 70,000,000,000 yen from the end of March, nearly half of which came from net inflows.

Speaker 2

Please turn to Page 10 for Wholesale. Wholesale net revenue slipped 4% to JPY 244,800,000,000. As shown on the bottom left, Global Markets increased 2%, while Investment Banking dropped 25% from the strong prior quarter. Wholesale expenses declined 4% as last quarter's JPY 14,000,000,000 loss provision and year end factors were no longer present in this quarter, more than offsetting an increase in commissions and flow of brokerage linked to trading volumes and severance related expenses due to realigning headcount. As a result, income before income taxes increased 3% to 21,100,000,000 yen.

Speaker 2

Please turn to Page 11 for an update on business line performance. First, Global Markets net revenue increased 2% to JPY 207,700,000,000. Fixed income net revenue was up 3% up to JPY 125,600,000,000. Macro Products was roughly flat as market participants remained on the sidelines on uncertainty over the rate cut in the U. S.

Speaker 2

Spread products reported significantly higher revenues in securitized products in Americas driven by an increase in new originations and secondary trading and a strong performance in Japan created on demand for high yield bonds. Equity's net revenue trended in line with last quarter at 82,000,000,000 yen. Equity Products booked higher revenues in Americas and EMEA, while Japan and AEJ slowed from the strong prior quarter. Execution Services booked strong revenues in Japan for 4th straight quarter and higher revenues in both the Americas and EMEA. Please turn to Page 12 for Investment Banking.

Speaker 2

Net revenue slowed 25% from the particularly strong previous quarter to JPY 37,200,000,000 Japan performance remained robust with advisory revenues at the highest quarterly level since the year ended March 2017 when comparisons are possible. International slowed from the strong prior quarter as execution of transactions dropped off this quarter. In advisory, Japan revenues increased on contributions from completed M and A transactions and we continue to respond to diverse client needs such as de listings, business reorganizations and cross border deals. International advisory revenues declined from strong last quarter, but dialogue with clients remains robust, and we expect this to result in revenues in the latter half of the year. Financing and Solutions reported lower revenues in Japan as seasonal factors led to a dip in transactions, while ALF slowed from strong prior quarter.

Speaker 2

Please turn to Page 13 for an overview of noninterest expenses. Group wide expenses were roughly flat at JPY 351,500,000,000. Compensation and benefits increased 4% to JPY 184,500,000 due mainly to yen depreciation, but also impacted by an increase in fixed pay and severance related expenses. Other expenses dropped 25 percent to JPY 43,400,000,000 compared to last quarter, which included a loss provision of JPY 14,000,000,000. Please turn to Page 14 for an update of our financial position.

Speaker 2

The table on the bottom left shows Tier 1 capital of JPY 3,500,000,000,000, up by about JPY 70,000,000,000 from the end of March. Risk weighted assets increased JPY 1,300,000,000,000 to JPY 20,000,000,000,000. This resulted in a Tier 1 capital ratio of 17.4 percent and a CET1 capital ratio of 15.6 percent at the end of June. The waterfall chart on the bottom right shows changes to risk weighted assets with credit risk up JPY 400,000,000,000 due mainly to yen depreciation and the market risk up JPY 900,000,000,000 due also to lower yen as well as an expansion in our financing business. That concludes the overview of our Q1 results.

Speaker 2

To sum up, this was our 5th consecutive quarter of earnings momentum, and we have embarked on a smooth start towards achieving our 2,030 numerical target of consistently achieving ROE of 8% to 10% or more. Momentum in Japan around the shift from savings to investment is growing and we are seeing growing demand for comprehensive asset management services. Wealth Management is seeing results from its reorganization last spring and its segment based approach, while Investment Management is delivering steady growth in its Asset Management business as it diversifies its distribution channels and continues to book net inflows. While wholesale performance still has room for improvement, all business lines reported higher revenues compared to same quarter last year, and we are making progress in diversifying and stabilizing our revenues as discussed at Investor Day. Since hitting a record high in July, the Nikkei average has recently undergone a significant correction as investors turned cautious over yen strengthening and U.

Speaker 2

S. Tech stocks declined. That said, Wealth Management continues to see a lot of dialogue with clients and new accounts opened by high net worth clients, offerings and other primary transactions contributed to revenues in July, outstripping the strong performance in the Q1. Wholesale in Wholesale Global Markets is seeing strong performance in Micro Products Credit and Execution Services. Investment Banking is supporting a wide range of transactions such as large offerings and unwinding of cross shareholdings by Japanese corporates as well as advisory and sustainability related transactions internationally.

Speaker 2

As a result, wholesale revenues in July are trending substantially higher than 1st quarter revenues. Traditionally, this period is a slow season as market participants take a break for the summer, but we expect to see volatility in the market over the U. S. Presidential election in the autumn and the monetary policy by central banks around the world. We will manage risk and cost appropriately while monetizing business opportunities.

Speaker 2

We look forward to your continued support. Thank you.

Operator

We have a question and answer session now. If you have a question, press shop 7. If we want to cancel a question, press shop

Speaker 1

The first question is by SMBC Nikko Securities, Muraki san. Please go ahead. SMBC Nikko's Muraki. I have two questions. Page 11, fixed income, the substance.

Speaker 1

According to this graph, spread products, so it says, Securitization in the U. S. And Japanese credit are doing well, but the revenue level is beyond 60,000,000,000 yen, if I look at this diagram correctly. This revenue, what are the main products? What kind of transactions in which regions are growing?

Speaker 1

If you can give us the updated situation. And on Page 14, you touched upon risk asset and market risk increase. Most likely is the financing related to securitization and level 3 assets. It was close to 1,000,000,000,000 yen. Suddenly, it's grown to 1,300,000,000 yen.

Speaker 1

So my question, securitization did well. What kind of risk did you take that led to the increase of revenue as a consideration? That's my first question. And second question is a simple question. Page 5, Wealth Management.

Speaker 1

Acquisition of assets. This is SMA for net high net worth. And in comparison to the previous quarter, it has improved.

Operator

Is this because of

Speaker 1

sales? What are the reasons behind? Was it because of market? Thank you very much for the question. The first question was spread products and the breakdown.

Speaker 1

Mainly, it's securitized products in the United States and that is the driver, 60% of the spread business robustness accounted for by U. S. Securitized Products. Nomura Securitized Products, in terms of market share, it's one of the flagship products with a number 1 or number 2 share in the market. So we have strength.

Speaker 1

RMBC secondary trading was the main in the past phase. But in the past 10 years, we have tilted towards origination, which is not influenced by market so much. So origination secondary origination 2, while secondary is 1, so origination double. RMBC was the main product, but Asset Finance and Renewable Infrastructure Finance, Instructure Solutions, Structured Repo. So we now have a diversified product lineup.

Speaker 1

So diversification of revenue and expansion of platform has been contributed. We are more strongly able to weather any single trend in the market. That's the backdrop. And level 3, RWA is increasing. What's the reason?

Speaker 1

One is GPN and GM clients' trading demand is also increasing, especially for the securitization business. And the inventory has increased. So that has led to the increase of RWA. Business is healthy, so the stock has increased driven by the healthy business. And your second question, there is increased discretionary investment.

Speaker 1

40,000 yen average, market wise, it's dealing at high level and the investment momentum is driving on the part of the clients. When equity price increases, people try to lock in the profit and sell their holdings. But rather than selling with unrealized gains increasing, the client sentiment is improving. So unrealized gain, they keep in order to invest that for further investment. So I think we are in a very virtuous cycle.

Speaker 1

For discretionary investment, SMA in high net worth, we are seeing significant increase there. I hope I answered your question. Thank you very much. Regarding my first question, RWA Level 3 seconduritized business used much of the RWA. And regarding the consumption of resources, the capital efficiency for the securitized business from the perspective of CFO, has there been recovery that gives you comfort against the target?

Speaker 1

What's the current level? And are you comfortable with that? And in July, you said it went beyond what you had expected. Does that mean that securitization business was stronger than expected? Thank you very much.

Speaker 1

How much SSD business we do, that's an important point. In comparison to our peers, SB portion may be slightly larger at Nomura. That being said, I'm not saying that we should become closer to our peers, but we will monitor how much growth we will see. But the most recent situation is very good and Credit Suisse exiting from the U. S.

Speaker 1

Market has been providing strong business opportunity. And in July, the situation was quite healthy for securitized products. And naturally, under Basel III, RWA of securitized product tends to come down. So that being said, we hope to think about the capital efficiency. Thank you very much.

Speaker 1

Well understood. Thank you for your response.

Speaker 2

The next question comes from Watanabe san from Daiwa Securities. Thank you. I'm Watanabe from Daiwa Securities. I have two questions. First question is regarding IB Business.

Speaker 2

So large sized offerings are being announced one after another. But compared to last year, in terms of pipeline, to what extent have you seen increase? And also regarding the reduction of policy holdings, the issuers have various options, the offerings and buyback and so on. But what kind of schemes has the biggest contribution to you in terms of revenue boosting? That's my first question.

Speaker 2

2nd question is regarding CET1 ratio that came down in the Q1. But after finalization of Basel III from 14%, is the ratio going to change? If not much impact is expected on securitized business, then you may be able to retain 14%, but what is your outlook? And at Investor Day CET1 ratio target you said is going to be set, but what is the timing for the disclosure of CET1 target? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thank you very much. Regarding your first question, regarding IB, pipeline is quite robust. In the insurance sector, such a bedrock sector is moving, so FIFO in Japan is expected to increase. The capital efficiency increase such as deals are the central part of the deals that we're expecting high level of deals. So POs and offerings are the areas where Nomura can exercise the capabilities.

Speaker 2

Regarding your second question, CET1 CET1 ratio under finalization of Basel III In our outlook, it's not going to change much. Currently, the CET1 ratio has come down, as you mentioned. But looking at the positions or portfolios components have changed slightly, but the eventual prospect outlook has not changed regarding the timing of disclosure of target level. Since May, it's been only 2 months. So we would like somewhat time before disclosure.

Speaker 2

By the end of the year, are you can I expect to see the disclosure? Yes, sometime within the year, hopefully, we can conduct the disclosure. Thank you. Thank you for your answer.

Speaker 1

The next question is by Morgan Stanley MUFG Nagasaka san. Thank you. This is Nagasaka of Morgan Stanley, MESG. I have two questions. ROE 8% to 10% overall, consistently being achieved.

Speaker 1

And you said you're well on track. Again, by segment, how will you be structuring your business towards that goal? Bottom line, more than 300,000,000,000 yen to be consistently generated. That would be necessary. But by each segment, what do you plan to achieve?

Speaker 1

And second question, Slide 7. Wealth Management, recurring assets and recurring revenue. Recurring assets increasing. Recurring revenue is very strongly increasing against recurring assets. Can you give us a reason?

Speaker 1

Is it because of product strategy? What other reasons behind that has kept Nomura responding to the client needs? And also, could you comment on margin? Thank you very much. First question was ROE 8% to 10% plus.

Speaker 1

As you just heard, for this quarter, Wealth Management, Investment Management, these consistent business, stable businesses are generating high level of profits. In the mid to long run, finally, we are seeing a major trend of savings to investment. So not just simple growth, asset consulting, asset management are areas where we are seeing growth. So revenue stabilization and these businesses do not rely on equity. So we are already seeing visibility gaining visibility in ROE growth.

Speaker 1

Wholesale, yes, there has been a slight increase in revenue, but there's room for further improvement. 91% expense ratio, that's still high. So increase in revenue and reduction of cost should lead to cost income ratio decline, and we would like to achieve the bottom line of JPY 300,000,000,000 by taking those measures. And also, the recurring revenue growth is quite healthy in comparison to the growth of recurring revenue assets. What's the reason behind?

Speaker 1

Product based breakdown based upon AUM hasn't really changed that much. This might be just a spot number. So it may appear to be slightly different. Today, if that instance, the average recurring revenue asset was high, maybe you would see it different and maybe the proportion of certain products has changed slightly, but I don't think that there is any irregular trend behind. That concludes my response.

Speaker 1

Thank you very much. I was able to understand very well. Thank you.

Speaker 2

The next person asking the question is Otsuka san from SBI Securities. Thank you. I'm Otsuka from SBI. Can you hear me? Yes.

Speaker 2

I have a couple of questions. First question, Page 21. By region, usually you show the numbers by region and based upon the regional numbers in EMEA in this quarter ended up being in a loss position. What is what was the background? And also JPY 17,000,000,000 total profit for international region.

Speaker 2

How should I think about it? So 17,000,000,000 yen, so this number will be higher when the EMEA breaks even. So on a quarterly basis, 17,000,000,000 yen over the last 2 years is not so bad. So how do you evaluate the first quarter's profit level of international market, JPY 17,000,000,000? Thank you for your question.

Speaker 2

EMEA last year had a huge loss due it's partially due to one off reasons, but and there was a reallocation of human resources across businesses and under the new structure, it's been several months now. And looking at different months in April May, we did not see much of movement, but in June onward, we started to see a sign of recovery. But I'm afraid to tell you that from April through June, the figure is negative. However, the trend is pointing upward. The quarterly revenue, RMB 17,000,000,000, How do we evaluate this level?

Speaker 2

In international markets, as you know, the net operating loss exists. So if we can generate more profit, then effective tax rate will come down. So 17,000,000,000 is not something that we are satisfied with, but we would like to aim higher. Thank you. Thank you very much.

Speaker 2

My second question is about wealth management. Sorry, I might have missed your explanation, but in July. So what is your feel or impression about the business in July? Nikkei stock average has come down month by month. So the market tailwind is not there, but investment trust, insurance, discretionary services in these products.

Speaker 2

What is the situation, including the mindset of clients? In July, these businesses are strong compared to the April through June quarter. We have had several primary transactions which supported the business, but clients' investment minds are somewhat cautious with clients staying on the sideline, but when the stock prices came down, they bought. So the trend is strong. That's our view.

Speaker 2

As for our sales partners who are allocated to clients, when the market comes down, which presents difficulties for us, Our partners face our clients and market outlook can be explained by them, so that our partners can stay close to the concerns of clients. So the decline in market is not necessarily a bad thing for us. So it will be an opportunity for us to differentiate ourselves from other companies. So July situation is very strong. That's our evaluation.

Speaker 2

Thank you. I understood.

Speaker 1

The next question is by Niwa san of Citigroup Securities. Please go ahead. Thank you. Niwa of Citi. Good evening.

Speaker 1

I have two questions. Shareholder return and wealth management. First, on shareholder return, share buyback, I have 2 questions. First, why were you able to buy back at an early stage? So that's my first point.

Speaker 1

And secondly, in this timing of announcement of results, are you engaged in any discussions regarding additional share buyback? Were there any discussions or not? And then the second major topic is Wealth Management. And I have questions from 2 angles on assets. I have this feeling that you can already revise upward your target for this term.

Speaker 1

How robust is the performance against your expectations? Secondly, one of the challenge was emerging with clients and acquisition of those clients.

Speaker 2

How

Speaker 1

is that going? You said you are now feeling the face of clients, the wave of clients from savings to investment. Has that been driven mainly by emerging wealth clients or not? Thank you. Thank you for the questions.

Speaker 1

First, JPY 100,000,000,000 share buyback, why were we able to do that early? Well, we placed the order early, so we were able to do it. And back then, the share price was low. And since around January, we were estimating recovery of performance. So we studied the good timing.

Speaker 1

And regarding the Q1, we just finished our previous round of share buybacks. So we are not specifically thinking about any further buyback in Q1. ROE beyond capital cost has been generated. And as I've said, most recently, the performance is very sound for the month of July. I cannot make any judgment, but share buyback is a very important option in the capital policy.

Speaker 1

And I am feeling the expectations from investors. So we will continue to study the best timing and the best size of share buyback. And isn't it about time to revise upward the recurring asset target? I think we are seeing growth steadily so far. The most recent number was outperforming this terms goals, but we want to do more internal discussions on this matter because we don't want the targets to become a living creature on its own.

Speaker 1

Recurring asset is something that expands by gaining the business from our customers, and we will discuss the appropriate level with our key personnel of Wealth Management. And the other point was Wealth Emerging Wealth clients. In the workplace business, we are gaining new clients and we have already outperformed the goal that we set forth. The workplace is quite attractive for the top management of issuer companies. So how can they retain high performance within their organization?

Speaker 1

How can they increase the engagement of their existing employees? And they want to use their personnel as sources of growth. So Investment Banking and Wealth Management have common KPIs and they are taking action, and we are seeing performance as a result of those efforts. Workplace Service clients, are they all qualified to be categorized as emerging wealth? We will have to see.

Speaker 1

But we want to attract these customers and we are providing support in way of investment Nomura fans. Other than Workplace business, new acquisition is doing well. Acquisition of new clients is performing well. Sorry, I will comment on last fiscal year, but PWM, Wealth Management, PWM, High Net Worth Clients, The number of new clients increased by about 50% in comparison to the prior term. So if we look at the Q1, there has been yet another 30% increase, including references.

Speaker 1

And I think we are on a very healthy cycle, good track. Thank you. Thank you for the wide ranging comments.

Speaker 2

The next person asking the question is Otsuka san from SBI I am Otsuka from SBI Securities. I have one additional question. Page 25, the net inflow of cash and securities. The retail number alone is 460,000,000,000 yen for the Q1 according to the disclosure. But cash and securities, if you split them, what's the split between them?

Speaker 2

The intention of my question is JPY 4 60,000,000,000 yen, that's quite high level. So from other financial institutions, clients may be moving their cash to Nomura accounts to buy securities. Is it what's happening? Thank you very much for your question. I do not have the breakdown with me right now, but as you said, 460,000,000,000 yen in inflow.

Speaker 2

This is a big number, but I'm afraid I do not have the breakdown with me. So from our IR office, our staff will get in touch with you. Okay.

Operator

As there is no more question, we would like to finish question and answer session. Now we would like to make the closing address by Nomura Holdings.

Speaker 1

SING until late in the evening, ROE 8 percent, we were able to report that after a long interval. Our target is ROE 8% to 10% or more, and we are at least at the minimum level of that target, which is good news. Of course, there was a tailwind of the market and high prices there, but that wasn't the only reason why. I believe that the numbers were achieved due to the efforts that we have made. This 8% ROE, we're not complacent with this at this level because we need to be consistently delivering such level of ROE or else we will not be able to gain the confidence of the investors and shareholders.

Speaker 1

We know that well. So this was quite a healthy results announcement, but there are still outstanding issues that we need to tackle. So we will take these actions in order to maximize our corporate value. So we welcome your feedback, your sharp criticism and your objective views. And please be frank in share your views with the IR.

Speaker 1

Once again, thank you for joining us.

Operator

Thank you for taking your time. And that concludes

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Earnings Conference Call
Nomura Q1 2025
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