Norwegian Cruise Line Q2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
July 31, 2024

There are 10 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Donna, and I will be your operator. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session and instructions for the session will follow at that time. As a reminder to all participants, this conference call is being recorded.

Operator

I will now turn the conference over to your host, Sarah Inman. Ms. Inman, please proceed.

Speaker 1

Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us for our Q2 2024 earnings and business update call. I'm joined today by Harry Sommer, President and CEO of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings and Mark Kempa, Executive Vice President and CFO. As a reminder, this conference call is being simultaneously webcast on the company's Investor Relations website at www dotnclhltd.com/investors. Throughout the call, we will refer to a slide presentation that can be found on our Investor Relations website.

Speaker 1

Both the conference call and the presentation will be available for replay for 30 days following today's call. Before we begin, I would like to cover a few items. Our press release for Q2 2024 results was issued this morning and is available on the Investor Relations website. This call includes forward looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from such statements. These statements should be considered in conjunction with the cautionary statement contained in our earnings release.

Speaker 1

Our comments may also reference non GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure and other associated disclosures are contained in our earnings release and presentation. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Harry. Harry?

Speaker 2

Well, thank you, Sarah, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today for our Q2 2024 earnings call. This is an exciting time for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings. The Q2 has surpassed our expectations with results exceeding guidance on all key metrics, allowing us to increase our full year guidance for the 3rd time this year. At our Investor Day, we emphasized our unwavering commitment to balancing return on experience, what we call ROX, and return on investment or ROI.

Speaker 2

This strategy is clearly yielding results. We are witnessing robust demand with strong pricing and booking volumes, leading to record breaking advanced ticket sales. This demand coupled with our onboard offering and high quality service has led to strong guest satisfaction scores while we continue to effectively control costs. These indicators affirm that our strategic approach is positioning us for sustained long term success on our well defined path forward for continued growth to achieve our Charting the Course strategy, which includes ambitious 2026 financial and sustainability targets. Today, I'm excited to discuss some of our key milestones for the Q2 and the factors that drove our enhanced guidance for the remainder of 2024.

Speaker 2

We're thrilled to see how the pillars and initiatives we're also excited to share the progress outlined in our recent sustainability reports. Later in the call, I will hand it over to Mark, who will provide more color on our Q2 performance and updated outlook for 2024. We kicked off the Q2 with impressive momentum, continuing the positive trends from the beginning of 2024 and proudly executing on our exceptional performance pillar. As you can see on Slide 4, our 2nd quarter results beat guidance across the board. Adjusted EBITDA grew 14% and adjusted EPS was up 33%.

Speaker 2

Notably, we hit our year end target of decreasing net leverage by 1.5 turns, a full 6 months early. As we move forward, we remain committed to further deleveraging with a clear focus on attaining a 2026 target of mid-four times. These strong results also allowed us to raise our full year revenue and earnings guidance. We now expect to end the year with adjusted operational EBITDA margin of 34.5%, a full 400 basis point improvement over 2023, which puts us well on the way to our 2026 target of approaching historical margin levels of 39%. We also increased our adjusted EPS guidance for the full year to $1.53 an approximate 120 percent increase over 2023 and an impressive step forward towards our 2026 target of $2.45 And lastly, we are on track to achieve double digit adjusted ROIC by year end.

Speaker 2

This acceleration in our financial results speaks volumes about our team's dedication and hard work. Turning to Slide 5, I want to emphasize how our long term growth platform pillar is set to deliver measured capacity growth and maximize our fleet to drive strong financial returns. Historically, capacity growth has driven outsized revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth, and we expect this trend to continue with the incorporation of larger and more efficient state of the art vessels to our fleet, which I'll now give some updates on. Turning to Slide 6. We are currently focused on our next 2 new ships being delivered in 2025, both currently scheduled for an on time delivery.

Speaker 2

Our first milestone in the quarter was the float out of Norwegian Aqua, which we celebrated with our partner, Fin Cantieri. Norwegian Aqua, the 1st ship in the next generation Prima Plus class, is an evolution of the previous Prima class ship and will be 10% larger. This space allows for more innovative offerings, including the world's first ever hybrid roller coaster and waterslide, the AquaSlideCoaster. We are also building a digital sports complex with an interactive LED floor and most expansive 3 60 degree outdoor promenade, the Ocean Boulevard. We cannot wait for Aqua to make her debut in April 2025.

Speaker 2

Most recently, we also celebrated the float out of Oceana's Alura at the Fincantieri Shipyard in Genoa. This marks the transition of the vessel from dry dock to fitting out berth initiating the final stages of construction. Allura will redefine luxury with its designer inspired interiors, including opulent suites, sophisticated lounges and exceptional new dining venues. Scheduled to enter service in the Mediterranean in July 2025, she will follow summer season with winter voyages in the Caribbean. Oceana was also busy this quarter with the return to service of Marina after an extensive refurbishment.

Speaker 2

This all encompassing rejuvenation includes the addition of 3 new dining options and reimagined penthouse suites. And just as we add more capacity and new features on existing ships, we are also excited for enhancements to our destination and home ports. We're increasing our sailing to exciting destinations such as Bermuda and Great Serves Cay where we plan to complete construction of our 2 ship here towards the end of next year. We'll also be adding a new home port to our roster in 2025, Jacksport in Jacksonville, Florida. And in April 2026, NCL will make its return to Philadelphia after a 17 year hiatus.

Speaker 2

With the addition of Philadelphia, NCL will now service 7 of the top 10 largest metropolitan regions in the United States. We are excited about our deployment and our guests are as well, as shown by our booking trends, which you can see on Slide 7. The company continues to experience strong consumer demand. In the Q2, we continue to see strong bookings with our 12 month forward book position at the upper end of our optimal range on strong pricing. During the Q2, we observed continued strength in onboard revenue as well, which was driven by our guests' continued enjoyment of our shore excursion and onboard amenities, including specialty restaurants and communication services, which have been bolstered by the continued implementation of StarLink across the fleet.

Speaker 2

Additionally, pre booked onboard revenue for capacity day showed solid growth, increasing by 15% as more guests opted for pre cruise purchases. And as we've seen from prior experience, higher pre cruise spend typically results in higher overall spend throughout the guest cruise journey. As a result, our net yield grew 6.3% during the 2nd quarter, surpassing our guidance by a full 200 basis points. During the Q2, about 3% of our capacity was originally scheduled to be in the Middle East region with high teen percentages on our Oceania and Regent brand scheduled to be in that region. The cancellation of these itineraries resulted in a very short resale cycle.

Speaker 2

Despite the setback, results for this quarter were strong enough to offset this underscoring the robust demand environment for cruises and the agility effectiveness of our teams to overcome difficult challenges. Without a doubt, our financial performance exceeded our expectations, And we're therefore raising our yearly net yield growth guidance increasing 100 basis points from 7.2% to 8.2%. It is worth noting that our occupancy guidance remains essentially unchanged as we're already guiding to full ships. So the entire increase in our guidance is on the back of stronger pricing. As such, we are anticipating strong pricing growth across all 4 quarters in 2024.

Speaker 2

Turning to Slide 8. To continue cementing our leading position beyond 2024, I'm excited to announce that our 2nd quarter events ticket sales surpassed the Q1, increasing 11% year over year and reaching a new all time high of $3,900,000,000 This success was driven by robust pricing, a dynamic deployment mix coupled with increased presale packages and capacity growth. Now moving on to what is at the core of our Charting the Core strategy, our sustainability program, sale and sustain. In June, we were pleased to result our annual sustainability report. On Slide 9, we summarize some of our main 2023 highlights, which underscore our commitment to integrating sustainability into our overall business approach.

Speaker 2

So noticeable accomplishments include achieving our 20 24 target to equip 50% of our fleet with this technology by 2025. In fact, we recently celebrated the launch of shore power at Port Miami, making it the 1st major cruise port on the U. S. East Coast to offer shore power at 5 of its terminals, including our own terminal B, the Pearl of Miami. We also reached our goal of testing 20% of our fleet with biodiesel blend by expanding test to 4 more ships throughout 2023.

Speaker 2

Our new target is 40% of our fleet to test biodiesel by 20 24. Finally, doubling down on our people excellence pillar, we continue diversifying our sourcing, having spent over $635,000,000 with small businesses and businesses with minority, women, veteran or economically disadvantaged qualifications in 2023. And most recently, Forbes named us as the best American employer for women, a milestone we are particularly pleased with. Our journey does not stop here. We remain dedicated to advancing towards our sale and sustain targets going forward, maintaining high standards of operational excellence and creating lasting value for our business and various stakeholders through sustainable practices.

Speaker 2

I couldn't be more proud of our entire team for all of these impressive accomplishments. With that, I'll turn it over to Mark to walk you through our financial results and outlook. Mark? Thank you, Harry, and good morning, everyone. My commentary today will focus on our very strong second quarter 2024 financial results, our improved full year 2024 guidance and our increasingly solid financial position.

Speaker 2

Unless otherwise noted, my commentary on 2024 net yield and adjusted net cruise cost ex fuelPCD are on a constant currency basis and comparisons are to the same period in 2023. Let's begin with our Q2 results, which are highlighted on Slide 10. In short, we exceeded guidance across the board, outpacing our targets for the quarter. Starting with the top line, results were impressive with net yield increasing 6.3%, exceeding our guidance of 4.3% by 200 basis points. Several factors contributed to where the majority of our capacity is deployed this quarter.

Speaker 2

Where the majority of our capacity is deployed this quarter stronger than anticipated onboard revenue and close in sailing demand And finally, the redeployment of canceled Red Sea sailings were better than our initial expectations. Looking at costs, adjusted net cruise cost ex fuelPCD came in below guidance at 163, primarily due to the timing of certain expenses that will now fall into the Q3. As expected, our unit cost this quarter included approximately $9 from higher dry dock days and related costs as compared to 23. Excluding the impact of the dry docks, our adjusted next cruise cost ex fuel PCD would have been flat year over year, once again demonstrating our ability to fully offset the impact of inflation with our disciplined cost savings initiatives across the entire organization. These initiatives combined with robust top line growth have yielded strong results.

Speaker 2

Adjusted EBITDA came in at approximately $588,000,000 surpassing our guidance of $555,000,000 resulting in a year over year increase of 14%. Adjusted EPS was $0.40 exceeding our guidance of $0.32 and increased 33% compared to the same quarter last year. Overall, we are extremely pleased with our 2nd quarter performance. Strong top line growth combined with our ongoing cost reduction initiatives enabled us to surpass our guidance metrics for the quarter. This strong momentum positions us well as we look ahead And as a result, we are raising our earnings guidance as highlighted on Slide 11.

Speaker 2

We are thrilled to announce that for the 3rd time this year, we have raised our full year guidance, reflecting the strong performance and strength of our business. Since our initial guidance in February, net yield growth is expected to increase 280 basis points to 8.2%. And we have maintained our adjusted net cruise cost ex fuel PCD guidance, which excluding the impact of the dry docks is expected to be flat for the year. I will go into more detail on this a bit later in my remarks. As a result of the strong top line and subinflationary unit cost growth, we have increased our guidance for adjusted EBITDA by 150,000,000 from $2,200,000,000 to $2,350,000,000 All of this is flowing to the bottom line, resulting in an increase in our adjusted EPS guidance of approximately 25%, underscoring our impressive operational execution and strong market demand.

Speaker 2

These results mark significant progress towards achieving our Charting the Course 2026 targets as we outlined in May. Moving on to a more detailed look at our guidance on Slide 12, we outline our expectations for the Q3 and full year, as well as the implied metrics for the Q4. Starting with net yield, we anticipate net yield growth of almost 6.5% in the 3rd quarter. This growth is driven by several factors. Over 70% of our sailings in the 3rd quarter are in Europe and Alaska, regions where we are experiencing strong demand from North American customers.

Speaker 2

Continued strong onboard revenue trends, combined with healthy pre booking for onboard amenities. Unlike Q2 and Q4, this quarter is unaffected by disruptions from the Middle East cancellations and reroutings. These favorable trends and our ongoing momentum have allowed us to increase our full year net guidance to 8.2%. I want to emphasize that our latest guidance implies a healthy net yield growth of 5% for the Q4. This builds off of an impressive 8% growth in 2023 that was underpinned by 14% pricing.

Speaker 2

Our Q4 2024 growth also comes in the face of headwinds from rerouted Middle East sailings, which comprised 10% of our deployment in the 4th quarter and was disproportionately weighted to our luxury brands. Now turning to our attention to adjusted net cruise cost, where our guidance remains unchanged, a true testament to the diligent efforts of the entire organization. For the Q3, we anticipate adjusted net cruise cost ex fuel PCD to increase by 3.3% to 156 from 151 in the same period last year. I would like to highlight a few points about the quarterly numbers as there are many moving parts and I will get into that those yearly changes later in my remarks. 1st, in Q3 of last year, we recognized approximately $2 of non recurring benefits.

Speaker 2

2nd, keep in mind the timing of expenses. As I mentioned previously, our Q2 unit costs were better than expected, primarily due to timing differences of certain expenses between Q2 and Q3. Consequently, on a year over year basis, Q3 unit costs are up. However, this is merely a timing issue. And for the full year excluding the impact of dry docks, we still expect our unit cost to remain essentially flat and in line with our prior guidance.

Speaker 2

And third, I will mention variable compensation. We are recognizing higher variable compensation due to our business outperforming initial forecasts. And this has a disproportionate weighting in the Q3 consistent with the seasonality of our earnings. As a result of strong net yield growth and cost savings initiatives, our 3rd quarter adjusted EBITDA is expected to be $870,000,000 which is driving adjusted EPS of $0.92 a 21% increase over the same period in 2023. Moving to Slide 13, I'd like to revisit our net yield guidance since our Q1 results in May and highlight the confidence and strength we are seeing for the latter half of twenty twenty four.

Speaker 2

At our Investor Day, we increased our full year guidance, indicating that the majority of the uplift was expected in the second half of the year. Giving more detail on this now, we had expected that about 35,000,000 of the 50,000,000 adjusted gross margin improvement or an increase of 120 basis points of net yield to materialize in the second half. Today, we are raising our full year guidance once again with an additional $35,000,000 improvement in adjusted gross margin or 120 basis points in the second half. This positions us to achieve solid net yield growth of 5.9% in the back half of twenty twenty four. Moving to Slide 14, I want to dive a bit deeper into our margin enhancement initiatives.

Speaker 2

As we stated at our Investor Day, a key pillar of our algorithm is boosting margins and reducing costs across the entire organization. And we continue to see these fruits the fruits of these efforts during 2024. During the 1st and second quarters, we have been able to keep our unit costs flat, excluding dry dock. And as I mentioned earlier, due to the timing, this metric will increase in the Q3, but should decline in the Q4. And as a result, our adjusted net cruise cost ex fuel PCD will be essentially flat year over year, fully offsetting inflation as well as the increased variable compensation due to the company's strong performance.

Speaker 2

This feat is not easy and is the result of the tireless work of our entire organization and transformation team. I am confident that we will be able to continue this momentum in the years that come. Turning to Slide 15, we can clearly see the impact of our disciplined approach to earnings and returns as outlined during our recent Investor Day. The key elements of our algorithm are straightforward. Improved net yields and rigorous cost management drive margin expansion.

Speaker 2

That margin expansion in conjunction with controlled capacity growth results in substantial adjusted EPS growth. Moreover, this adjusted EPS growth when paired with our disciplined capital allocation strategy allows us to prioritize debt repayment in the short to mid term. This approach not only reduces our net leverage, but also strengthens our balance sheet and enhances our adjusted ROIC, which by the way is on target to hit double digits this year, another important milestone toward our 2026 target of 12%. During the Q2, we improved our trailing 12 month adjusted operational EBITDA margin to 33%. As we close out the year, we anticipate ending with a margin of 34.5%, marking a substantial improvement of 400 basis points from 2023.

Speaker 2

This progress is a significant milestone as we strive toward our target of approaching historical margins of approximately 39%. Now let's shift to our balance sheet and debt maturity profile on Slide 16, which has not changed significantly since Q1. During the quarter and as expected, our 6% 2024 exchangeable notes converted to shares. And our next maturity is our $565,000,000 notes due 2024, which we are expecting to refinance and or partially repay by its maturity in December. Turning over to leverage on Slide 17.

Speaker 2

We are proud that we achieved our net leverage goal 6 months ahead of schedule, reducing our leverage by approximately 1.5 turns and ending the quarter at 5.9 times. Achieving leverage in the 5 is no small feat since we ended 2023 at 7.3 times. As you know, we are on a multi year deleveraging journey to de risk the balance sheet, targeting the mid-4s and this quarter's results are another significant milestone in that journey. In closing, I want to emphasize that this has been an exceptional quarter where we surpassed guidance across all key metrics. This momentum has enabled us to raise our full year guidance for the 3rd time.

Speaker 2

This is all a testament to the strategy we outlined at our Investor Day and that I discussed earlier. We are excited about the second half of the year and remain confident in our strategy going forward. With that, I'll turn it back to Harry for closing remarks. Well, thank you, Mark. I want to close by reminding everyone of the ambitious targets and strategies that we laid out in Investor Day just 2 months ago, which are listed on Slide 17.

Speaker 2

Our bold vision is to provide guests with exceptional vacation experiences, allowing them to vacation better and experience more. This vision is the foundation of our Charting the Core strategy supported by our 4 pillars: people excellence, guest centric product offering, long term growth platform and exceptional performance. These pillars are all underpinned by our commitment to sustainability through our sales and sustain program. On our 2026 financial targets. Our entire management team is driven and focused on this new strategy, and I'm positive that this quarter's results gives you even greater confidence that we are on track to achieve our long term goals.

Speaker 2

We are optimistic about our future and look forward to sharing this journey of growth and success with you. With that, I'll hand the call back over to the operator to begin our Q and A session.

Operator

Thank you, Today's first question is coming from Steve Wieczynski of Stifel. Please go ahead.

Speaker 3

Yes, guys. Good morning. Congrats on the results here. So Harry or Mark, in terms of booking trends, it seems like you're obviously well booked out for this year. And as you noted, most of your bookings today are for 2025 or beyond.

Speaker 3

So just wondering as we kind of look out to 2025, if you're seeing pretty much strength across all itineraries at this point or are there certain itineraries that are getting more attention right now? And then you also noted that you're at the high end of your what you call your optimal book position. But has that optimal book position changed at all given how much further out your customers are booking these days?

Speaker 2

So I'll take that one, Steve. It's Harry. First off, thanks for the kind work. You were very happy with our results this quarter and our increased guidance for the year as well. So two

Operator

different questions. I'll do my best to

Speaker 2

address both. On the booking the board. We're seeing good strength in the Caribbean, Europe, Alaska, Exotics, the board. We're seeing good strength in the Caribbean, Europe, Alaska, Exotics, all the places that we go to. We were pretty meticulous going into 2025 with our itinerary planning to do a good job at balancing our demand and supply by region of the world.

Speaker 2

And we seem to generally be successful. But I'll point out one thing that I'm particularly pleased with. It's Alaska and Europe for next summer. And please don't take that as a comment that I'm not pleased with anything else. We're pleased with everything, but that's one area that seems to be doing particularly well and a little bit ahead of our expectations.

Speaker 2

So we're happy with that. In terms of your second comment about whether or not our view of book position has changed, I think so. I think if you were to compare this, for example, to 2019, which lasts normal year way back when, I would say that our optimal book position is probably a little bit ahead. But I think that's just due to better analytics, better revenue management tools, better thoughts of the future. I just want to reiterate, perhaps save a question from someone else in the future.

Speaker 2

Our goal is not to be at record book position. Our goal is to be at optimum book position such that we can maximize yield. We don't take record book positions to the bank. We take yield to the bank, and we have calibrated our tools such that sometimes it's okay to slow down bookings in order to raise prices. And one thing that we're particularly proud of that I mentioned in my prepared remarks is we have really seen robust pricing for 2025, up significantly compared to this time last year for 2024 and that's something that obviously we're going to continue to do our best on to deliver towards our 2025 and 26 long term financial goals, which we mentioned on Investor Day.

Speaker 3

And Harry, maybe if I can ask one more real quick one here. But you made a remark in your prepared remarks about how you're charting the course targets are, you use the word ambitious, which I think is a pretty interesting adjective there. So maybe I'm reading too much into that remark, but as we sit here today, I mean, if you guys are targeting double digit ROICs by the end of this year and your target out to 26% to 12%. I mean that doesn't seem overly ambitious to us. So maybe that's not even a question, but I'll stop there and see how you would respond to that.

Speaker 2

I'm not sure I read a question either. So I'll try to do my best to respond. Listen, when I say derenditious, I mean that we believe that it's the proper cadence that drives the company forward to have great results. So I wouldn't read that my comments at undicious, but I think they're crazy optimistic nor are they in such a way that we can achieve them. We're very much committed and we are reiterating our support today that we're committed to hitting these targets in 2026.

Speaker 2

And I think the commentary that we gave on book position, the visibility we have into 2025 allows us to reiterate the goals that we think we're well on track to achieving that.

Speaker 3

Okay, great. Thanks, Harry. Appreciate it.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is coming from Ben Chaikin of Mizuho Securities. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I know you called out timing as a factor between 2Q and 3Q for costs, but it sounds like some incremental progress on the cost side as well that helped offset costs both in the quarter and the year. I'm not sure if there's anything you can elaborate on. Were these essentially incremental cost saves as part of the longer term goal that you found early or maybe incremental opportunities?

Speaker 4

And I guess what I'm referring to is the incremental compensation expense yet essentially unchanged full year cost guide? And then any quantification would be super helpful. Thanks. And then I have one more.

Speaker 2

Yes. Good morning, Ben. This is Mark. So you're absolutely right. We continue to be very, very confident in achieving our cost reduction and waste elimination goals.

Speaker 2

So when you think about the full year, I think in the quarter our costs were favorable. I think it was what $6,000,000 $7,000,000 That's just the timing between quarters. But when you step back and you think about that on a full year basis, you are absolutely right. Due to better performance that we called out, we do have variable comp that is hitting us both in the second quarter and second half of the year, disproportionately weighted to the Q3. So all in all, that indicates that we're actually pacing ahead in terms of our overall $100,000,000 goal that we had committed for this year.

Speaker 2

So we continue to find new things. We continue to hone in and eliminate waste. We're committed to that and very happy on the progress we're seeing going forward.

Speaker 4

Got you. That's helpful. And then switching gears, thinking longer term, great start, Kay, are you I know the pier will be complete in October 2025. Do you plan on making incremental investments in parallel with that opening or do you think it will be subsequent to?

Speaker 2

I think there'll be a little bit of both. I think there'll be some parallel investments, but I think this is a long term development plan for us. As you know, we have one of the largest private islands in the Caribbean. We have lots of real estate to build on. We have a long term master plan.

Speaker 2

So I think you can look to have some see some things opening up in 'twenty five with the pier, and more things will come in 'twenty six and 'twenty seven. We are committed. We have a significant percentage, especially of our NCL fleet visiting there in the winters and even now some in the summers as well. Perhaps you caught some of our deployment changes when we announced our 26 deployment for NCL a couple of weeks ago. And we plan to maximize our real estate and what we believe is a competitive advantage in the Caribbean with this island.

Speaker 2

And Ben, I just want to highlight that, that will be over time. We are not anticipating or should you expect there's going to be some level of ramped up CapEx over the next year or 2. We will make measured disciplined investments there while looking to repurpose dollars that were otherwise going to be spent within the organization. So again, it will be in a measured way and associated with returns that we would expect with such investment.

Speaker 4

Got it. That's very helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is coming from Connor Cunningham of Melius Research. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hi, thank you. Mark, just sticking with costs. So the other core cost performance seems to be tracking ahead. Just as you start to think about 2025, I realize you have some lingering drydock headwinds and just any early reads on the puts and takes there? Like for example, like does the development of like Jacksonville or the private island start to add incremental costs to next year in general?

Speaker 5

Just any thoughts there right now? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. Good morning, Connor. Look, I think when you think about 2025, we're not expecting any sort of material headwinds from our core fundamental costs, other than what we would expect against normal inflation, which again, we've been very adamant, we believe we can deliver subinflationary costs. But things around the island or even I think you mentioned dry docks, when we think about dry docks year over year, there is no substantial step up. I think our dry dock days might change year over year.

Speaker 2

It's in the single digit number. Now, there may be different capacity days in terms of timing of the dry docks or similar of next year, but overall that's not a headwind when you think about it from a 20,000 foot level. So we're focused on as we've been saying, we're focused on our algorithm. We believe we can deliver subinflationary unit cost growth or better. And Q2 and our second half guidance is another testament to that, that we're on a strong path toward that course.

Speaker 2

And the only additional color I'll add, as you asked specifically about Jacksonville, we have no material investment. That's an investment led by the local community, which obviously we're going to partner with by bringing ships there long term. But that's on their dime, so to speak, not ours.

Speaker 5

Okay. Helpful. And then on the comment

Speaker 2

I'm sorry, Conor, for color, same situation with Philadelphia, which we also announced.

Speaker 5

Okay, helpful. Then on the comment of bookings for 2025 and just where the curve sits. In the past, you've talked about the negative impact to having like longer, more immersive cruises that won't let basically will inhibit you from getting back to 2019 occupancy levels. But just given the stated demand, like why wouldn't

Speaker 2

you. I'll just say, Conor, and I hope I get to the essence of your question. Listen, our core driver of revenue is the 1st and second guests in the cabin, not necessarily the 3rd guests in the cabin. The 3rd guest doesn't tend to pay very much. So our focus is really more on cabin occupancy than passenger occupancy because those 3rd and 4th guests have a very small marginal benefit.

Speaker 2

So once again, this really gets to optimizing yield, not necessarily optimizing an occupancy number or something along those lines.

Speaker 5

That's actually helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is coming from Matthew Boss of JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Great. Thanks and congrats on a nice quarter. So, 2 part question. Back at all that you're seeing in any region? And then Mark, with the 4th quarter net yield raised today and if we think about demand momentum, if demand momentum continued, I guess how linear is the 2.5 point cost spread target multiyear thinking if net yields were to continue to outperform your plan, how best to think about that 2.5 point cost spread?

Speaker 2

Okay. Those are 2 good questions. I'm going to take a crack at both of them and then Mark will do some cleanup after my second answer. Because the first one is relatively straightforward. Look, the overwhelming majority of our demand, especially on the NCL brand, but even across Oceania region comes from the North American consumer.

Speaker 2

So it really wouldn't be while I'm happy to share what's happening in the rest of the world, which is really good as well, it wouldn't materially impact our numbers anyway. So I think that's a more important answer to the question. The European and Asian consumer is very is only on the margin important to us. But to be clear, they're doing well as well. We are happy with the demand out of Europe.

Speaker 2

We're happy with demand out of Latin America, Australia, all the places that we sell, core consumers, the U. S. And they continue to do well for us. In terms of next year, listen, 2.5% is a baseline. Obviously, we are going to do everything in our power to overachieve on yield and we're going to do everything in our power to overachieve on cost, I mean coming in with better cost.

Speaker 2

But I think 2.5% is a very good place to start. We only announced that about 2 months ago. We're still focused on that for 2025% and 26%. Yes. And Matthew, just to highlight some things.

Speaker 2

So look, when we announced our targets, what I think it would be important to understand is, number 1, there is no hockey stick implication or assumption that we're going to do X in 25 and we have to do X in 20 Y in 26. That was a very broad based spread that we've committed to. So what do I mean by that? Yes, there may be some variability between quarters either upward or downward of that. I mean it's very, very early when we look at 2526.

Speaker 2

So I wouldn't get caught up on the quarterly spread. I would concentrate on the full year spread, which is what we're aiming for. And again, we're not assuming any sort of hockey stick scenario. And I think that's the important thing to keep in mind in your models and your thinking.

Speaker 6

Great color. Best of luck.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Matt.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is coming from Brandt Montour of Barclays. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Good morning, everybody. Thanks for taking my question. So the first one, just on the Q4 implied guide. I think the Q4 implied guidance on our math for per diems is something in the low 2 percentage range. And I think there's Middle East there.

Speaker 7

Can you Mark, can you just start quantifying what the Middle East impact is on the Q4 in particular?

Speaker 2

Yes. Look, good morning. And as we've talked about before in the Middle East, I think a call or 2 earlier in the year, we had said the Middle East Red Sea was about a 1 to 2 point impact for the year. And if you think about that on the quarters, it's disproportionately weighted to Q4 of this year, because about 10% of our capacity was in that region. So I can't give you full I'm not going to give you full or complete quantification for Q4, other than I would urge you to consider that it was 10% of our deployment that was disproportionately weighted on our luxury brands.

Speaker 2

So it is certainly weighing down on the Q4. That said, as I've also said in my remarks, Q4 of last year, we had 14% pricing growth and 8% yield. And even more importantly, I think when you look at the 4th quarter in the second half and you think about the progression that we've made over the last 4 to 5 months, we have continually increased our guidance for both the 3rd and 4th quarters consistently. And I think that is a testament that we are seeing strength and we are seeing strong momentum. So I'll leave you with that.

Speaker 2

And but I think we're very satisfied with where we are, and hopefully, we can outperform that. And the only additional color, Brent, that I'll add is we now as I said earlier in the Q and A session, we managed to yield not to price. When we're guiding now to a 5 point yield increase year over year, which quite frankly considering that we're guiding at 6% now for Q2 and Q3, we don't view that as a material difference. We don't go 6% 1 quarter, 5% another quarter as anything other than the normal ebbs and flows of businesses. So I think this conversation about some sort of deceleration can finally be put to bed.

Speaker 2

We tried last time, but we obviously weren't successful. Hopefully, after this time, we can finally put that to bed.

Speaker 7

Thanks for that, Harry and Mark. So on a follow-up question, Marriott this morning talked about seeing a slightly lower ancillary spend across the system. The U. S. Was implicated in that.

Speaker 7

Again, broad based, but slight. You guys have your own real time cash register. Are you seeing any wobbles or waivers in that onboard spend over the last few sorry for the short term question, but it's topical.

Speaker 2

Sure. I'll give you a short answer and then a longer answer. So the short answer is no. We are seeing no absolutely zero decrease in onboard spend. I think we mentioned in our prepared remarks, in fact, how the pre selling of onboard is actually up considerably over the prior periods that we comped it to.

Speaker 2

The slightly longer answer is you need to keep in mind a couple of factors. The huge value gap between hotel ADRs and cruise line yields, I think at our Investor Day, we referenced the 40% value gap, which really still means we have tremendous runway to go to catch up to hotels. We consider that a long term tailwind for the company. And also the fact that because our booking pattern is so much further in advance, we have lots of opportunities to engage with our consumer and discuss with them all the value of being on our ship. You have a little bit of the fact that the people are in our product the whole time, unlike a hotel where people come and go, they sort of are on the ship for extended periods of their vacation, which gives us a little bit of a tailwind there as well.

Speaker 2

So overall, the short answer is no cracks, no deterioration. If anything, it continues to be strong. And more long term, I think they're fundamental things that work in our favor that make our business quite a bit more resilient than the hotel on the ancillaryonboard spend category.

Speaker 7

Perfect. Thanks, everyone.

Speaker 2

Next question.

Operator

Donna? My apologies. My mic was muted. The next question is coming from Vince Stifel of Cleveland Research Company. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Great. So really encouraging to hear about the positive revision of the Q4. And I think you used the word robust to describe what you're seeing for pricing for 2025. So it sounds like things are setting up pretty well for that low to mid single digit yield growth range that you target. Could you comment on how you think new hardware and maybe any itinerary or geographic type changes could impact yield for next year?

Speaker 7

Is it something that you think will be accretive, neutral, dilutive to yield? How should we be thinking about that?

Speaker 2

I so thanks, Vincent. I think the reiteration of the low to mid single digit yield growth for next year is spot on and that continues to be our goal for 25% 'twenty six percent. When we look at our deployment mix for 'twenty five percent versus 'twenty four percent, obviously, there's some changes on the margin, but it's not a substantial change year over year. Obviously, we didn't have any new hardware come online this year, which would be a tailwind for next year. We have 2 ships coming on next year, one a little earlier, one towards the back half of the year.

Speaker 2

So I don't think that new ships will have a material impact as well. I think most of what you see next year is just going to be organic based on marketing, demand, tweaking revenue management tools and just being more effective at executing in the company. So I don't think there's any huge one time or ancillary items that impact yields for next year.

Speaker 7

Thanks. And unrelated follow-up on loyalty, I know this is something that we've talked about briefly in the past. Just curious where you guys are at in that process and if you've given more thought or already taking steps to help reward folks for staying within the brand family across the portfolio of brands?

Speaker 2

Good question, Vince. It's not really something we're prepared to talk about yet. Obviously, what we've seen in the industry is on our radar screen and we're studying it, but not really in a place to comment at the current time.

Speaker 7

Okay. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is coming from James Hardiman of Citi. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Hey, good morning and thanks for taking my questions. So you guys have done a great job the last couple of quarters and really implied in the guidance for the year on the cost front, basically keeping net cruise cost flat ex the dry dock. Maybe help us think through how long you can continue to do that, I. E, if we think about this year, was there a disproportionate benefit from some of the cost saves that would inevitably slow next year? And I guess conversely, how to think about inflation next year?

Speaker 8

Or could that sort of flattish ex drydock trend continue for longer? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Good morning, James. It's Mark. So thanks for the question. Look, as we've stated and more importantly as we've committed, we've said that we're targeting $300,000,000 of savings over the course of the 3 years through 2026. And we're confident in that.

Speaker 2

Doesn't mean it's in the bag, but it's an ever evolving journey. And we think, you know, we have the right tools, we have the right culture that's in place. We are seeing changes in the organization and we're starting to eliminate waste effectively. And again, it remains to be seen when you think about next year what is inflation. We generally think of inflation as somewhere around 3%.

Speaker 2

And of course, we all know that could be up or down. But our goal is to mitigate some or all of that. And what I can say is to date and our performance indicates it, we are doing well on that track. And we're actually ahead of that track for 2024. So a bit early to commit on what 2025 is going to look like, but we have a lot of runway.

Speaker 2

We have a lot of annualization from initiatives that started this year that will get the full annualization of next year. So we're feeling comfortable on our targets and we are laser focused on this and eliminating that waste, but preserving the entire guest experience and the product that we're known to deliver.

Speaker 8

Got it. And then, obviously, it's way too early to really handicap 2025 in terms of some of the key sort of demand and cost factors. But I don't know if you could maybe help corral us in terms of some of the below the line items as I think about interest expense, share count, D and A for next year, obviously your balance sheet is changing. You've got some converts. Any help with that math so we could all be maybe within the same ballpark?

Speaker 2

Yes. So first on share count, I think we've been guiding to about $515,000,000 or $516,000,000 fully diluted. And I would expect that number to be very similar next year because that does assume that all of our convertibles that are out on the horizon are converted to shares. That is not our intention, of course, for our 2027s, as we've always said, but the 2025 convertibles, we expect to convert to shares because we don't have another option. In terms of D and A and D and A, I think our D and A generally runs probably about 9.5% or so of gross revenue.

Speaker 2

And I would anticipate that it's probably going to be in same zone going forward. And in terms of interest, again, I think we continue to make progress on the interest. We're guiding to what are we guiding to 7 about 760 or so this year. And I think that's about what is that about 6.5% or so of gross. As we continue to pay down debt, as hopefully we can take out some debt early, as we potentially indicated with our 2024 December maturity.

Speaker 2

I think hopefully we can continue to see some improvement on that front. So I'm not going to give you a specific number on it, but think about where we are this year, 7.30, 7.40 or so, I think that would probably be a consistent percent of gross revenue or

Speaker 8

better. Got it. Really helpful. Thanks, Mark.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is coming from Lizzie Dove of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Hi, there. Thanks so much for taking the question and congrats on a nice set of results. I just wanted to ask about kind of the algo, I suppose, the net yield. It feels like maybe the growth side of things in terms of onboarding ticket was a touch lower than expected, but really, really nice kind of commissions leverage that you got there. So I guess any change of how you're kind of thinking about that longer term?

Speaker 1

And I'll ask my follow-up now. Is there how much more room to go is there on that kind of commissions leverage that you're getting? And is that really just coming from more direct bookings, change in demographics that you're seeing? Any help there would be great. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. So thank you, Lindsay. And we've seen the question in your initial report this morning too. So we appreciate the heads up on it. So I'll just say at a high level, I understand how you drew the conclusion you did that the benefit was based on commission or direct bookings or something like that.

Speaker 2

But I just want to explain that was not the case. The entire benefit we saw in that line was as a result of better air purchasing. So as you know, we bundle air on Oceania region and Seattle anywhere between 35% 60% of our guests depending on the brand and the region. And as we're able to buy air more effectively, we pass on the savings to guests, which results in lower gross revenue and lower air cost, so to speak, which show up in the commission transportation and other line, yet better net revenue because we believe our air program is an embedded advantage in driving demand. So therefore, for us, having higher net revenue and lower gross revenue is actually a huge benefit, which I think that an analyst community misunderstands.

Speaker 2

They think we missed on growth. It's actually a benefit. It means we're buying air more effectively, again, passing on those savings to the guests, which allow us to have a more robust demand environment. In terms of how much more leverage there may be on buying Airbetter, listen, we have a team. This is what they do.

Speaker 2

We continue to do our best to contract with new carriers, especially both on the domestic and international front. That gives us more choices to offer our guests. So I do not think we have run the entire course. I could sort of although it doesn't necessarily show up in cost, so it isn't officially part of the transformation office for the $300,000,000 that Mark mentioned. Clearly, buying air better and providing that benefit to the guests is a long term benefit for the company.

Speaker 1

Awesome. Thank you. That's helpful.

Speaker 2

I think we have, operator, time for one more question.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Dan Pulitzer of Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Hey, good morning everyone and thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to follow-up on that, the difference between gross and net. As we think about kind of the remainder of the year and obviously you've given that net yield guidance, should we think about that transportation and airfare costs

Speaker 2

year? I think, Dan, generally speaking, to the extent we can continue to improve on that line item, we're going to continue to improve on it. Obviously, you know, we are at the mercy of some of the market volatility in terms of whatever Air does. But I think it's a good assumption to assume that we're going to continue to work hard on that and see improvements. So a bit of a not exact answer because I think there is variability there, but I think we're going to continue to see improvements there.

Speaker 9

Got it. And then obviously you reached your year end target for leverage pretty much in this quarter. How should we think about the year end net leverage target at this point, if there's any way to just kind of help us as we think about the working capital and those other moving pieces in terms of your balance sheet and cash

Speaker 2

flow? Yes. I think the way to think about it is, it provides us another solid milestone toward our 2026 target of mid-4s. I think generally the models out there know what our debt is, net debt is and I think you have a good handle on obviously where our EBITDA is. So we are making progress and we think by year end we're going to see significant improvements in that quarter after quarter.

Speaker 9

Got it. Thanks so much.

Speaker 2

Okay. So once again, I want to thank everyone for joining us today. We'll be around to answer any questions you may have. Have a great day and we look forward to seeing you in our next call. Thanks everyone.

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Key Takeaways

  • Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings beat Q2 guidance across all key metrics with adjusted EBITDA up 14% and adjusted EPS up 33%, enabling a third full-year guidance raise to 8.2% net yield growth, 34.5% adjusted EBITDA margin, and $1.53 EPS.
  • Robust demand and pricing drove record advanced ticket sales, a 6.3% net yield increase (200bps above guidance), 15% growth in pre-booked onboard revenue, and strong pricing across all four quarters despite regional itinerary changes.
  • Next-generation fleet expansion is on track with the 2025 delivery of Norwegian Aqua and Oceania’s Allura, plus ship refurbishments and new home ports in Jacksonville (2025) and Philadelphia (2026) to support future capacity growth.
  • Progress on the “Sale and Sustain” sustainability program includes shore power activation at Port Miami, 20% of fleet biodiesel testing achieved, over $635 million spent with underserved suppliers, and recognition as Best American Employer for Women.
  • Effective cost management has kept net cruise costs ex-fuel flat (ex-dry docks), improved ROIC toward double digits, and cut net leverage 1.5 turns to 5.9x—well ahead of its 2026 mid-4x target and on path to 39% historical margin levels.
A.I. generated. May contain errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Norwegian Cruise Line Q2 2024
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