CAE Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
August 14, 2024

There are 12 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the CAE First Quarter Financial Results for Fiscal Year 2025 Conference Call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen only mode and the conference is being recorded. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity for analysts to ask questions. I would now like to turn the conference over to Andrew Arnovitz.

Operator

Please go ahead, Mr. Arnovitz.

Speaker 1

Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that today's remarks, including management's outlook and answers to questions contain forward looking statements. These forward looking statements represent our expectations as of today, August 14, 2024, and accordingly are subject to change. Such statements are based on assumptions that may not materialize and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially and listeners are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward looking statements.

Speaker 1

A description of the risks, factors and assumptions that may affect future results is contained in CAE's annual MD and A available on our corporate website and our filings with the Canadian Securities Administrators on SEDAR Plus and the U. S. Securities and Exchange Commission on EDGAR. With the divestiture of Sea's Healthcare business in fiscal 2024, all comparative figures discussed here and our financial results have been reclassified to reflect discontinued operations. On the call with me this morning are Marc Taron, CAE's President and Chief Executive Officer and Sonia Branco, our Chief Financial Officer.

Speaker 1

Nick Leontides, CA's Chief Operating Officer is on hand for the question period. After remarks from Mark and Sonia, we'll open the call to questions from financial analysts. Let me now turn the call over to Mark.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Andrew, and good morning to everyone joining us on the call. Our performance in the Q1 reflects a continued healthy level of demand across our civil market solutions with some softness in commercial aviation training and certain regions compared to last year. Our results also demonstrate our ongoing progress to move our defense business forward from the rebaselining last year, which sets us up on a clear path to margin improvement. Testimony to our strong position in secular growth markets, we booked nearly $1,200,000,000 in total orders this quarter for a record $70,000,000,000 in adjusted backlog. In Civil, we delivered 8 full flight simulators to customers during the quarter and our average training center utilization was down a percentage point from last year to 76%.

Speaker 2

We saw year over year growth in business aviation training, including the expected contributions from our more recent capacity additions like our new Savannah, Georgia Training Center for Gulfstream Pilots, which we inaugurated in June. In commercial aviation training, utilization was 3 percentage points lower than last year on average, which is still robust, but it was lower still in the Americas where we saw some incremental pressure on initial training and pilot churn as several airlines paused pilot hiring. This was mainly the result of the supply side constraints on new narrow body aircraft. For example, in the U. S, there was a nearly 80% reduction in pilot hiring among notable carriers in the month of June compared to last year.

Speaker 2

That being said, recurrent training is up year over year as the in service fleet and pilot population continue to grow. Commercial training utilization was lower in Europe too with seasonality being more pronounced than usual because of an extended summer flying season. This also relates to aircraft supply size constraints and special events namely the Euro Cup and the Paris Olympics that altered normal travel behavior this season. Training demand in Asia and the Middle East has been tracking well and we're seeing solid growth there in line with our expectations. We continue to demonstrate our ability to win our fair share in a large secular growth market, which sees highly differentiated training and flight operations software solutions.

Speaker 2

We booked $771,000,000 in orders with civil customers worldwide for an impressive 1.31 times book to sales ratio, which is on revenue that's 9% higher than Q1 of last year. We also had strong order activity in our JVs this quarter, representing another approximate $103,000,000 of training service orders, which are not included in the adjusted order intake figure, but are reflected in our record $6,600,000,000 total Civil adjusted backlog. We received orders for 11 full flight simulators in the quarter and signed long term training services and next generation flight operations and crew management software solutions contracts with commercial and business jets operators worldwide. In defense, our financial performance was in line with our expectations at this point on our path towards margin improvement this year and I'm quite pleased with the progress that our team has made to deliver on our commitments. We booked orders for $422,000,000 for a 0.87 times book to sales ratio giving us a $10,400,000,000 defense adjusted backlog which is up markedly from $8,400,000,000 in Q1 last year.

Speaker 2

Notably, included in the adjusted backlog, but not the defense's adjusted order intake is Sea's share of the $11,200,000,000 25 year contract for Canada's future aircrew training program that was awarded to the CAE Skyline joint venture. We're now in the process of finalizing CAE's subcontract work under the JV for simulation based training solutions that will be delivered by CE. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Sonia who will provide additional details about our financial performance. Sonia?

Speaker 3

Thanks, Marsh, and good morning, everyone.

Speaker 4

Consolidated revenue of $1,070,000,000 was 6% higher compared to the Q1 last year, while adjusted segment operating income was $134,200,000 compared to $143,300,000 in the Q1 last year. Our quarterly adjusted EPS was $0.21 sorry, dollars 0.24 in the Q1 last year. We incurred restructuring, integration and acquisition costs of $25,600,000 during the quarter. This is comprised of $10,800,000 for the integration of AirCentric, which is expected to be completed in the 2nd quarter and $14,800,000 in connection with a restructuring program to streamline CAE's operating model and portfolio, optimize our cost structure and create efficiencies. We expect to record approximately $20,000,000 of additional restructuring expenses in the Q2 in light of the expanded scope of the organizational and operational changes that have been actioned.

Speaker 4

They are intended to further strengthen our execution capabilities and drive additional cost optimizations and synergies in ABA's Defense and Civil Aviation Businesses. This primarily involves the removal of management layers and the consolidation of several shared services across the organization. We expect to fully achieve an annual run rate cost savings of approximately $20,000,000 by the end of next fiscal year. Net finance expense this quarter amounted to $49,500,000 which is down from $52,400,000 in the preceding quarter and down from $53,100,000 in the Q1 last year. This is mainly the result of lower finance expense on long term debt, partially offset by higher finance expense on lease liabilities in support of training network expansion.

Speaker 4

Income tax expense this quarter was 8 $300,000 for an effective tax rate of 14%. The adjusted effective tax rate was 17%, which is the basis for the adjusted EPS. Net cash from operating activities this quarter was negative $12,900,000 compared to negative $49,300,000 in the Q1 of fiscal 24. Free cash flow was negative $25,300,000 compared to negative $110,300,000 in the Q1 last year. The increase was mainly due to lower investment in non cash working capital and lower maintenance capital expenditures.

Speaker 4

Free cash flow performance in the quarter was in line with our expectations at that point. We usually see a higher investment in non cash working capital accounts in the first half of the year. And as in previous years, we expect a portion of this to reverse in the second half. We continue to target an average 100% conversion of adjusted net income from free cash flow for the year. Capital expenditures totaled $92,600,000 for this quarter with approximately 75% invested in growth, mainly to add capacity to our global training network to deliver on the long term training contracts in our backlog.

Speaker 4

As a reflection of our agility and disciplined approach to investing, we have adjusted our total CapEx outlook in fiscal 2025

Speaker 5

to the low end of

Speaker 4

our previously indicated range of $50,000,000 to $100,000,000 higher than fiscal 2024, which totaled $330,000,000 Our net debt position at the end of the quarter was approximately $2,100,000,000 or net debt to adjusted EBITDA of 3.01x at the end of the quarter. For the impact of legacy contracts, net debt to adjusted EBITDA was 3.11x. During the quarter, CAE repurchased and canceled a total of 463,500 common shares under its normal course issuer bid, which began on May 30, 2024 and at a weighted average price of $25.21 per common share for a total consideration of $11,700,000 Now turning to our segmented performance. In Civil, 1st quarter revenue was up 9% to $587,600,000 compared to the Q1 last year and adjusted segment operating income was down 11% to $106,400,000 versus the Q1 last year for a margin of 18.1%. The two main differences in our financial performance this quarter compared to last year involve an approximate $10,000,000 lower adjusted segment operating income contribution this quarter from site operation services or software defense.

Speaker 4

As we are now going through an expectedly more intensive period of fast conversion. The second main difference comes from the incrementally lower demand in the short term for initial type training in the Americas that Mark alluded to and the extended summer flying season in Europe that has made the seasonal dip in training activity more pronounced than usual. We enjoy a highly recurring revenue profile and significant degree of operating leverage in the training business. And we expect a meaningfully positive impact on margins as volumes increase in the second half of the fiscal year. In Defense, revenue was up 3% to $484,900,000 while segment adjustment segment operating income was up 14% to $27,800,000 bringing us an adjusted segment operating income margin of 5.7 percent.

Speaker 4

It's right on plan and the team is executing well. On the legacy contracts, we are right on cost and schedule and anticipate being able to close out a couple of them in the near term. With that, I will ask Mark to discuss the way forward.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Sonya. For Civil, the secular demand picture for aviation training solutions remains very compelling. It's underpinned by growth in air travel, demand for pilots and the need for them to stay current with always advancing aviation technology and regulations. Our business is driven primarily by the regulated training required to maintain the certification of pilots and crews who operate the global in service fleet of commercial and business aircraft. It's notable that both Boeing and Airbus recently published their latest 20 year commercial aviation forecast and they project that the number of in service commercial jets will approximately double over the next 2 decades.

Speaker 2

The demographic realities of an aging pilot population, mandatory age based retirements and the continued secular growth outlook for air travel are immutable and they really underlie our continued confidence in the long term outlook for CAE. As for the short term, the airline industry is currently managing through what we believe represents the peak of narrow body aircraft supply headwinds and we assume the industry will begin to benefit from some easing of these supply constraints and that we're also seeing pilot hiring begin to resume in the second half of our fiscal year. We're already seeing an uptick in travel training bookings for the 3rd and 4th quarters that are consistent with that view. And as we think about what else underpins our expectations for a stronger second half of the fiscal year, I think it's important to consider that these factors have been affecting only a portion of our commercial aviation training sub segment and that we've taken initiatives to drive additional operational cost efficiencies to partially mitigate the effects of incrementally lower initial training demand in the shorter term. At the same time, we expect the second half to benefit from seasonality and to show continued strong performance in business aviation training, higher profitability in flight operations solutions and higher volume and profitability when Full Flight Simulator delivers.

Speaker 2

Within that context, we expect approximately 10% Civil annual adjusted segment operating income growth in fiscal 2025 with an annual adjusted segment operating income margin between 22% 23%, with ample room to grow beyond the current year on volume, efficiencies and mix. Our growth in our margin expectations this year also account for the ongoing ramp up of our newer training centers and recently deployed full flight simulators, which are performing well. In defense, we're also in a secular growth market as the sector enters an extended upcycle marked by rising budgets across NATO and Allied Nations. Key trends include the heightened focus on near peer threats, greater government commitments to defense modernization and readiness amid geopolitical tensions and a growing demand for the training and simulation solutions that we provide. Our expertise in both civil aviation and defense positions us well to meet these needs.

Speaker 2

We're seeing a consistent demand driver across regions for our training solutions. A shortage of uniform personnel for defense, which has led militaries to rely on industry partners like CA for training solutions to ensure readiness. The Canadian FACT and RPAS programs are prime examples and we're well positioned over the next year on several similar strategic programs across the Indo Pacific regions, Europe and in the United States. These programs require the type of technologies and proficiency that are CE strength. And we intend to leverage our position on these generational programs in Canada to enable multi domain training and secure synthetic environments across our global network.

Speaker 2

Our expectations for fiscal 2025 reflect the rebaselining of the business and the enhanced visibility that this has given us. We're highly focused on simplifying the organization and driving more operational excellence and we'll continue to prove it through execution in the coming quarters. We continue to expect annual revenue growth in the low to mid single percentage range and annual defense segment operating income margin to increase to the 6% to 7% range and like civil be more heavily weighted to the second half. As Sonya mentioned, our Chief Operating Officer, Nick Le Antidis is already having a great impact on the business and has identified even more opportunities than originally thought to further streamline our organization, remove duplication and optimize CE's cost structure. As COO, he now has purview over all of 5 CAE's divisions, which enabled us to remove management layers in both civil as well as our defense businesses.

Speaker 2

We've also further streamlined support functions, engineering services and our footprint to drive additional synergies across the enterprise. Before opening the call to questions, on behalf of myself, CA's Board of Directors and the entire Executive Management Committee, I wish to express my sincere appreciation to Sonia Branko, our outgoing CFO for her numerous contributions to see success over the last 17 years. I and we have benefited greatly from Sonya's stewardship, her insightful mentorship of her colleagues and her deep commitment to our great company. At the same time, I wish to welcome Constantino Malatesta or Dino to the role of Interim CFO. Dino has worked closely with Sonia for many years and he has the deep knowledge of Steve's business and an extensive background in finance that will provide continuity and stability at CAE.

Speaker 2

I have full confidence in his ability to oversee the company's financial operations and strategy as we move forward with our search for the CFO role for which we'll consider both internal and external candidates. With that, I thank you for your attention. We're now ready to answer your questions.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Mark. Operator, we'll now take questions from financial analysts.

Operator

Certainly. We'll now begin the question and answer Our first question is from Sadi Chamoun with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Yes. Good morning. Thank you. Sonia, congratulations and all the best. And a couple of questions.

Speaker 5

1, if I look at the Civil guidance of 10%, then I assume this quarter that we're in right now is kind of your seasonally most weakest quarter. It feels like you need almost 65% of the EBIT growth to happen in the second half of this year, which is highest that we've seen in 10 years, I think outside of COVID year. How much visibility do you have into this growth in the back half of the year? And maybe a little bit on this commercial aviation issues, it feels like a lot of it may be deferred revenues at this stage. Is it kind of coming back quickly or is it kind of more protracted and how it comes back?

Speaker 2

Well, thanks, Patty. Let me take that. I think we said last quarter that the factors that are affecting the Civil business, mainly commercial, maybe we factor some of this when we gave our guidance last year. We anticipated some OEM related challenge in the overall guidance. You've seen hiring has slowed.

Speaker 2

We talked about more significantly, specifically in this Q4. It was slightly more than we had anticipated in the Americas. But really pertaining to the rest of the year, I think this is how we see it, breaking down. Number 1, we first in the second half, as you well know, we always have a stronger second half and that's been proven out year after year for quite a long time. And that's really we expect that this year.

Speaker 2

That's going to come from an expected stronger performance in Business Aviation and that's going to be throughout the year, bigger in the second half and we always have a strong Q4 and that's expected this year as well. In terms of similar deliveries, we expect more full flight similar deliveries in the back half. That's usual as well. And we have obviously very high visibility on that because it's a production line and we have committed delivery days to customers. Another factor here is not insignificant is the cost optimization efforts that are going to begin to flow through more significantly obviously in the second half.

Speaker 2

As well, we got a hit, as I said, by about $10,000,000 year over year from our software business. Now we anticipate a stronger profit contribution from the software business, especially in Q4, we'll have a more on premise work at that time, as we continue at the same time to move to our fast conversion in this business. And lastly, I think that's probably going back to our assumptions about the market here that you mentioned, our guidance is predicated on seeing some recovery in initial training in the Americas specifically. As I mentioned on the call, we saw many carriers in the United States really is halting in some cases pilot hiring in June. Now, we're seeing some of that recovery and that's driven by some improvements that are anticipated in air bodies, deliveries and availability of aircraft.

Speaker 2

Now we are seeing that materialize in our bookings already. I mean that could change and if it does, we will keep you updated. But I think those are all the factors that underpin our confidence in the full year.

Speaker 5

Okay. That's great, Mark. Maybe a quick one for Nick. I mean, you've been in the seat now for a little while, Nick. Maybe if you can provide a little bit more kind of insight into the opportunities that you see to improve efficiency as you try to kind of streamline the and on over or streamline the operations and streamline kind of the shared operation across the CAE, all 5 segments?

Speaker 6

Well, I think, I think Mark made comments in his remarks. So now the way you need to think about us is there's 5 segments that we manage. By doing it that way, in particular in defense, we have taken out a couple of layers of alcohol overhead, which were related to the fact that we had a combined segment in the defense world. Right now, their support functions, there's some corporate costs. I mean, there's some things that are that have been addressed.

Speaker 6

Now, as Mark said, this is kind of coming through, it's starting to come through

Speaker 5

the results. Some of it is going to be directly impacting improvements in defense, some of it's going

Speaker 6

to help the whole company because these costs are spread. And so from a cost perspective, I think we just need to let cost savings flow through. Now the focus is more around us doing things one way between civil and defense, supporting each other in programs where we have commonality. I think you may have heard a program called HADES that is essentially a Bombardier 6,500 training program for the Air Force that the civil guys and the defense guys are cooperating in. So things like that that allow us to leverage the investments we make in these programs and simulators across the two businesses.

Speaker 6

So there's a number of these on the list and we're tackling all of them 1 at a time. And we should start to see more improvements in the results. That's part of the reason we think there's better improvements

Speaker 5

in the results because some of

Speaker 6

this was when the plans were built, the assumptions that were made were that these were going to be separate investments and we were going to have to essentially spend money on certain things twice, which at the time, I guess, made sense. But obviously, with our austerity, we wanted to be we want to be 1.

Speaker 5

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Thank you, Mark, and congratulations, Sonia, and Andrew for all the helpful initiation. In terms of the Civil guidance, I just wanted to follow-up on the first question. Just as we think about the second half margins, is there one factor that really helped drive up margins? Mark, you mentioned

Operator

a slew of things, whether it's

Speaker 7

the factor of just both like simulators, the exposure in terms of the market or is it cost optimization? Is there any way you could quantify that? And as we think about the full year guidance, the exit rate implies about above 25%, 26%. And in the press release, you noted ample room for improvement. So is that sort of the new run rate we should think about?

Speaker 2

Well, I won't get ahead myself on future runway except to say that I expect it to trend higher based on higher base overall flow through of revenue in our business as it grows and that's what we fully expect as we ramp both more assets across the network. But that will be going to next year. But look, it goes back to your question, Sheila. I think for this year, it's a little bit of everything that I talked about. I don't think there's any one factor that really swings it.

Speaker 2

Obviously, pilot training has got to come back. We have visibility on that. The other factor I think is very important is the cost savings are coming through, some of which Nick just talked about, which is streamlined that we do the simplification of the business, which echo that Nick is doing a fantastic job eliminating complete management layers, which not only improves the cost structure, but simplifies the business and gives better velocity on improvement of everything across the board. But we're also doing a quite a strong effort at reducing costs across the whole organization. And we're seeing some strong benefits of that and that's reflected in the higher restructuring expense that we talked about.

Speaker 2

So it's going to be all of those factors. But again, what we're seeing now gives us the confidence to reiterate that outlook.

Speaker 7

Great. And if I could ask a follow-up on the A320 comments you made, The AOGs at an industry level have held steady for the past few months. Can you just provide color on how you're seeing the impact to your business and perhaps regionally?

Speaker 2

Yes. I'll start it off and maybe Nick you can expand on our individual customers that are affected here. Look, our expectations on this from our read of the market and talking to our customers is that we're at we expect that we're at peak right now. We're at peak of the impact of the gear turbofan issues that are affecting the customers, EOS specifically. And as a result of our customers, maybe Nick, I'll let you expand.

Speaker 6

Well, we have obviously a number of customers that are being affected by the grounding of these aircraft waiting for their slot to come for their engine checks. So for a while, the airlines just continued to hire. But you can't hire pilots for forever because they need the minimum number of hours, they need to be trained. So at some point, you have to kind of say, okay, I'm going to need to slow down my hiring. And that's what's happened to us.

Speaker 6

We a lot of information is probably you can figure out who the customers are, but we have a lot of customers that have some pretty significant impact on these aircraft. Now the good news is from what we see is the number is

Speaker 5

not getting any bigger.

Speaker 6

The industry is making headway in this area. And so this will be something that we'll see improvement over time now. I don't think I mean, I think we've hit the peak now in terms of numbers of grounded aircraft and opportunity

Speaker 2

to improve. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Konark Gupta with Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Thanks and good morning. And thanks Sonia for all the help over the past decade and all the best to you.

Speaker 5

First question for me maybe

Speaker 8

is on defense. The margins started to rebound I guess like last quarter on normalized basis and we saw that kind of continue in Q1. And it seems like it's heading in the right direction here. Obviously, it's very gradual this year. I really want to understand like Mark, what do you think and maybe Nick, in terms of the legacy contracts and the timing for rolling off those contracts over the next 2, 3 years, how much more visibility do you have today?

Speaker 8

And do you think within the next couple of years or 3 years, is there a possibility that as mix changes, can you hit 10% sort of margin defense or that would be more sort of a longer term story?

Speaker 2

Look, I'll start with the first part of your question. I mean, we haven't really specified timing with regards to when we get to the 10%, it's certainly within going to be around that timeframe that's our anticipation without being overly specific on it. But what I would say going back to legacy contracts, specifically the ones that we called out, the 8 contracts we called out, we have very high visibility as you would expect on those contracts. And with the effort that we have not only on those, but obviously very specifically on the ones that we highlighted. And what I would tell you, look, everything is on schedule.

Speaker 2

Everything is on we're achieving a milestone that we have. And if anything, I'm hoping that we're going to outperform our estimates. And that's what I'm seeing now. If I look at the 8 contracts that we identified, we'll exit 2 of those pretty darn quickly within a short timeframe. And the rest are going to roll off as we expected them to over the next few quarters.

Speaker 2

So look, I couldn't be more pleased with the progress that our teams are making and as well with the acceleration of the benefit through cost savings and streamlining that Nick has put in place.

Speaker 8

Okay. That's helpful, Mark. Thanks. And just switching gears to

Speaker 1

the FIBO, I understand some

Speaker 8

of the weakness we are seeing lately and it's not too much I guess, but still coming from like the U. S. And the Europe kind of traditional markets you have. But you noted Asia and Middle East are doing good. Is there any opportunity to redeploy some of the training assets back to Asia and Middle East, which I think you got back over the pandemic, I guess.

Speaker 8

So any thoughts on how can you tap on this demand in Asia and Middle East, while U. S. And Europe are weak?

Speaker 2

Sorry, going to your question, you're talking about you were referring to moving assets, is that what you're sort of referring to?

Speaker 8

So, yes, moving assets to Asia and Middle East.

Speaker 2

Sure. I mean, that's always things that we look at and we may move some and whatever we plan in that is factored into the outlook that we have. Look, I think what we're going through is some short term effects here like very specifically, if I was to look at our business and let's go back to when we think about our Civil business, there's 4 components to it as I said before. If you look at it by revenue, about a third of the business comes to delivering simulators. So, a third of revenue comes from delivering simulators, a third comes from commercial aviation training, a third comes from business aviation training and 10% comes from our software business.

Speaker 2

And if you were to look at it from a profit standpoint without getting overly very specific about half of the profit comes from business area. So, as I look at what's happening now in Q1, which explains kind of the margin, let's say, difference year over year. One part, okay, as I talked about is lower profit coming from our software business. That's one and that's what we expected and that's what you should expect as we go through this SaaS conversion going moving from on premise work. But very specifically, when we look at the utilization, we're only like 1% down, but what that really masked with the effect is what we're seeing in the United States specifically with airlines pausing hiring in the short term, what that results in is less initials pretty much almost immediately because as the regionals themselves stop pausing hiring and you see more recurring training, but the initial training which occupies a lot of simulator time in North America specifically on aircraft for example such as CRJ's that activity has dropped disproportionately 3 or 4 percentage points.

Speaker 2

But again, as soon as we see pilot training coming back and we see signs of bookings in that regard, that comes back. So, it's important, but it's not all of our business commercial. And to your point, we're seeing very strong activity in other regions, for example, in Asia specifically.

Speaker 8

Okay. That's very helpful. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Kevin Chiang with CIBC. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Hi, thanks for taking my questions. Just wondering, you have some longer term margin aspirations and if memory serves me correct, I think within Civil, you saw line of sight coming out of the pandemic into the kind of mid-twenty percent SOI margin. And obviously, you continue to target kind of 10% or low double digit in defense. Just with the restructuring you're doing now and some of the synergies and cost savings associated with that, does that change the long term margin profile in either segment or any of these segments, just given the incremental cost savings?

Speaker 6

Well, look, I think we don't want

Speaker 2

to get into giving longer term guidance today. But clearly, all things being equal, the cost savings that we're putting through are only going to help our bottom line performance. Then it becomes a question of volume. And I think as I said, you look at what's happening in terms of aircraft deliveries over the next 20 years and I think it with the position that we have in the market, I think that portends very well for margin improvements still.

Speaker 9

Okay. That's helpful. And then I apologize if I missed this, but did you disclose what percentage of your the addition of your proportion of the new Canadian defense win, does that specific contract have margin profile than what you'd be targeting for overall defense? Is that something we need to be thinking about?

Speaker 2

Well, let me maybe I'll just turn it over to Sonia. I think the first part of your question is we don't disclose that the revenue is relatively small.

Speaker 4

Yes. So we don't necessarily disclose what Mark said. On cost, on schedule, what we have disclosed is that it continues to have, although it's on target a dilutive impact because essentially these are close to a relatively breakeven and that was 0.2 percent this quarter, so which gives us a margin of close to 6% for the quarter. And ultimately on Saks, would you want to add that Mark?

Speaker 2

Yes, go ahead.

Speaker 4

And in fact, very much aligned with the accretive target that we have for the facts. So this is a highly accretive generational program that will be contributors right out of the gate to CAE to defense.

Speaker 2

Yes. Just to add a little about that to what Sonia is saying. And by the way, I might have misspoke when I talked about the backlog here. I mean, it's a very sizable increase in the backlog that you saw. It's up from $5,400,000,000 in the last quarter.

Speaker 2

So it's quite dramatic in its impact, demonstrating what I talked about the appetite for governments to outsource their military Thai training and we see quite a few of those kind of opportunities as we look at the outlook in the next few years. But for us, I mean the first part of that backlog was going to play out over actually from now to about the next 3 or 4 years is the recapitalizing of the whole training infrastructure. And what that means is we're going to be building quite a number of simulators and other train devices here in Montreal to service that need. It's going to go in Moose Jaw, it's going to go in Winnipeg and other bases where the Canadian military is going to be doing pilot training. So I mean that's and that the margin profile on that product as Sonia said, is very accretive to the margin expectations that we have in the

Speaker 9

past. That is very helpful. Thank you very much and Sonya, best of luck as you move on to your new endeavors there. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from James McGarrigle with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Hey, good morning and thank you for having me on. So on the defensive margin guide, it implies a pickup in margin in the back half of the year. So can you just provide some additional color on what's driving that? Is that seasonality? Or is that operating improvement?

Speaker 10

Just trying to better understand what the margin exit rate is into fiscal 2026. Then as a quick follow-up to that, is that $20,000,000 in savings highlighted in the press release, is that incremental to that margin guide into fiscal 2026?

Speaker 6

Hi, this is Nick. So to answer the first part of your question, the margin improvement in defense in the second half just comes from both cost savings and from just the backlog that we're going to be executing in the second half. It's a much improved it's a more improved backlog. So it's just normal

Speaker 5

backlog business that gets executed and

Speaker 6

we will see some benefit from cost savings. As far as the cost savings are concerned, I wouldn't call them incremental, but they are going to give us more confidence around what we need to deliver in the second half.

Speaker 10

Thanks for the color. And then I just had a question on some of the additional restructuring expenses that you guided to in Q2. We've seen these restructuring expenses here the past few quarters. So when we're looking at free cash flow, trying to model out for the rest of fiscal 2025, can you just provide some color on potentially the magnitude of these expenses kind of after Q2 into the remainder of the year? And after that, I can turn the line over.

Speaker 10

Thank you.

Speaker 4

So on the restructuring expenses, so last year a large portion of those were non cash, so about half. For this upcoming quarter, most of them will be cash costs and that's reflected in our free cash flow continued free cash flow guidance. And in terms of the savings as Nick spoke to some of that will flow through this year and part of the H2 pickup. And for in terms of a whole, it's a payback period of about a year and a half for that investment.

Operator

The next question is from Benoit Poirier with Desjardins Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 11

Yes. Good morning, everyone. Just to come back on the software business, it's been almost 2.5 years since the closing of the transaction. You incur some restructuring costs, you made some investment to turn into a SaaS business. So could you talk about what remains to be done?

Speaker 11

What kind of growth we should expect from that business in terms of operating income? And maybe if you could share some color on the return on capital employee target in light of those additional investments that would be great.

Speaker 2

Okay. Let me start

Speaker 8

it off

Speaker 2

Benoit. Look, there's still some heavy lifting to do on this SaaS conversion perspective and that's aligned with what we talked about. We talked about we see that playing out over the next 2 well starting last year 2, 3 years as we execute this move from on premise to SaaS. So the good news is that we have a growing pipeline. We're seeing the results take hold.

Speaker 2

The premise that we have that airlines would readily see CAE as a trusted partner in this business has really come to fruition. I would say above my expectations, which were already pretty high. But and that's testimony to indicators like I tell you order intake. We've won roughly $700,000,000 in contracts over the last couple of years, which really points to great top and bottom line growth post the implementation. Again, 18, 24 months timeline is what I really anticipate as well as we have conversion.

Speaker 2

And we're talking for a pretty big carrier period in this $700,000,000 I'll point to Air India, which is consolidated, very large airline in the past year, with Air last year. I don't know, Nick, if you want to add anything more. That's my view on that. Yes.

Speaker 6

I think the way this works is these contracts are in the backlog now and we have to convert them to revenue and the way you convert them to revenue is you implement the contracts that you've signed and that gives you a revenue stream going forward. So this all this has to be processed. And as Mark said, we've got good line of sight and order intake. So obviously, we know what contracts we've won, we know what they're going to deliver every year. And as we look forward, we'll start to see the growth in revenue.

Speaker 11

Okay. And with respect to defense, Liberal government's budget cuts. I was wondering if there's any cuts that was impacted at CAE? And also in terms of ramp up of those transformative contracts, Mark, you've been talking about the big improvement towards the 15% revenue contribution. If you could provide an update on this opportunity, that would be great.

Speaker 11

Thanks.

Speaker 2

I'm not as it relates to the Canadian defense contracts related to us, I don't see any delay. I see acceleration. I personally met our Minister of Defense Blair just about a month ago and I can tell you that he is very focused on basically after approving the money that they've earmarked for the places like for example, support the Ukraine as one specific one. The programs that affect us are only going up and I have testimony by obviously the fact contract is 1, but I can point to others like we've been selected to do all the training for the fleet of remotely pilot aircraft that the Canadian government has bought from General Atomics and we are General Atomics partner for all the training on the whole international deliveries of that platform to everywhere outside the United States. And that's a very prolific platform.

Speaker 2

So high expectations there and obviously big contract here in Canada. Other contracts that are out there in Canada Of recent years, you saw Canada buy the P-eight aircraft and we are a Voinck's partner on that aircraft. In fact, we've done every PA simulator that exists out there also selected during the same contract for Canada. That's not in our backlog by the way yet, because although the Canadian government has bought the Canadian, our contract is with Boeing is with not only in Canada, but Norway and Germany. We're also fully aircraft.

Speaker 2

We'll be seeing that contract go through. So let's just go back to the question. I'm quite pleased with the amount of resources, effort and dollars that the Canadian government is putting towards the bank. And I think we're getting our very good share of it as the largest Canadian owned defense contractor in the country and obviously with a strong number 2 presence in the world in virtual based training for aircraft.

Speaker 11

That's great color, Mark. And maybe just the last one. Congrats for the fact on track with over 25 years. Sanyan, could you maybe provide some color about the timing in terms of ramp up and whether the CapEx associated to this contract will be how sizable will it be?

Speaker 4

So first question, there is no CapEx. So this is a capital light, no CapEx to deploy here. We are finalizing the sub contract and other contracts with the joint venture and we don't have any contribution yet from Sunfak, but it's part of the ramp up in the second half that we expect.

Speaker 11

Okay. Thank you very much for

Speaker 9

the time and all the best, Sonia.

Speaker 4

Thanks, Fatima.

Operator

With less than 10 minutes remaining, callers are asked to limit themselves to a single question. The next question is from Cameron Doerksen with National Bank Financial. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Yes, thanks. Good morning. You talked a little bit about this off the start as far as the visibility and outlook into the second half of the year. But I'm wondering if you can go into a little more detail on what you're seeing in the Business Aviation Training market. It sounds like things are still pretty strong there, but anything that's notably changed from the last quarter?

Speaker 5

And I know you've got a few newer training centers there in Business Aviation that maybe still be ramping up. Can you just update us on the progress that you're seeing there in ramping up those centers?

Speaker 2

Well, you're right. I mean, a big piece is coming up from the ramp up those centers. I can tell you, we're very pleased. Las Vegas, doing extremely well, as we expected it to be. It's a great location for Trade Center, ramping up Orlando, which is a joint venture that we have on SIM Com with the directional capital.

Speaker 2

We are we just opened up. We had a really great opening ceremony of our Savannah Training Center in just a few months just actually 3 months ago. All those simulators are ramping up quite nicely and the level of activity still very high. It's higher than pre pandemic. It has come down and that's we expected that.

Speaker 2

So I think I mean I'm seeing the parking lots are pretty full. Look, there will be and there has been an effect when I talk about reduced pilot hiring that has enough knock on effect because if the airlines are hiring less that has an impact on business aircraft. Overall, we expect that. So we're watching that, but the level of activity is still very high and the bookings are very high. Maybe Nick, you're very close to it, what happened or something to that?

Speaker 6

Yes, I think Business Aircraft has had a good quarter and we're not seeing I mean, there's a little bit of change in terms of the mix of the business, but overall it continues to perform as expected.

Speaker 2

Actually, you know what, I think what we should point out is the level of order intake in Civil has been again very strong this quarter in disproportionate business aircraft. It has quite a number of very large contracts.

Speaker 6

Yes, correct. Part of the driver yes, part of the driver for the order intake this quarter being at 135 was business aircraft. So we have a lot of long term contracts that got signed that created a disproportionate back order intake for Civil.

Speaker 5

Okay. No, that's great detail. I'll keep it to one question. Thanks very much.

Operator

The next question is from Kristine Liwag with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Speaker 3

Hey, good morning, everyone. And Sonia, really looking forward to your endeavor. Best of luck. We'll miss you. Maybe Mark, following back up on the first question from today's call on understanding the risk to the Civil outlook for the rest of the year.

Speaker 3

So the first one is, when you look at the bookings, you said it's improving, but how much of your guide for the second half of the year is already booked, meaning that you have complete visibility and there's no risk? And then the second follow-up to that is, it seems like this slowdown in pilot hiring is related to the rate in which new airplanes are being introduced, which means that should we see further delays on new aircraft deliveries? Could there be a continued slowdown in this new pilot hire? How should we think about that in terms of downside risks? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Okay. Let me start it off and maybe I'll ask Nick to pick it up. Reiterate the elements that really anchor the outlook that we have and what we control and what we don't look. I think if you think about the elements that are very much in, again, our control, deliveries of simulators. Deliveries of simulators, I mean, we know our production line, we know where those simulators are at, we know which customers are taking them, if they're going to take those simulators.

Speaker 2

There's always a potential that 1 or 2 of those could be deferred. It happens. We don't see it right now because we talk to those customers and the customers that were delivering those air those sub layers to, we know that they're getting aircraft, they know they're getting aircraft. So that pretty high confidence there. Business aircraft, we just talked about, that's bookings.

Speaker 2

The dynamic in business aircraft and I'm a business aircraft pilot myself and I train in our training centers. The dynamic there is still that if you can get a booking, you don't cancel it. Because obviously, if you have to do your train, your recurrent training every typically every 6 months, and if you lose your booking and you can't get another one, then chances are you can't renew your license, you can't fly. So people are quite conservative in gasoline booking. So it can always happen, but what we see there is again strong demand and that portrays our outlook for the business aircraft.

Speaker 2

The other element that pertains to our outlook is how much if you like drag, if you like, and it's more of a drag than anything else, is our conversion to software as a service in our software business. And we have very high visibility. There is an expectation there and it's based on things that we control, which is that, if you like, the drag of $10,000,000 that we saw in Q1 will lessen by the end of the year. And the reason for that is because we have more on premise work that's going to be done in the second half. Again, we have very high visibility there.

Speaker 2

Now if you look at downside risk to your point that is the fact that we are expecting some resumption of pilot hiring specifically in the Americas. And that is underpinned by the bookings that we have. Now bookings bookings can always be moved. That can happen. But we're talking to those airplanes and that's what they see, that's what we see and it's based on their expectations of when they're going to get their aircraft, whether they get that comes from narrow body aircraft from Boeing, whether it comes from airplanes coming back from engine overhaul or those kind of factors.

Speaker 2

So I think those are the components. And I think the last point that's important here is we're trying to manage our own destiny here and that's what the cost savings that we put forth together. We're being realistic. We had assumed some of this last year, which is why I think we were conservative in the outlook that we gave for the growth of the business, for the margins of the business, we talked about that. It's also the fact when we look at what we're seeing now, it's also the reason we gave you a range on CapEx last year and now we're moving to the lower end of that CapEx as we basically look at that the conservatism that we built in, I think there was good basis to do.

Speaker 4

Great. Thank you very much.

Speaker 1

Operator, we have our yes, operator, sorry, we have our AGM today as well. So we will have to be a bit more of a stickler in terms of sticking to schedule. I want to thank all of the participants who joined us today and remind you that a transcript will be made available later on CA's website of the call.

Speaker 2

Thank you. This brings to

Operator

a close today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating and have a pleasant day.

Powered by Quartr
Earnings Conference Call
CAE Q1 2025
00:00 / 00:00