Daqo New Energy Q2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

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August 26, 2024

There are 6 speakers on the call.

Operator

Hello, and welcome to the Daqo New Energy Second Quarter 2024 Results Conference Call. All participants will be in listen only mode. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Anita Hsu, Investor Relations Director. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Hello, everyone. I'm Anita Xu, the Investor Relations of Daqo New Energy. Thank you for joining our conference call today. Daqo New Energy just issued its financial results for the Q2 of 2024, which can be found on our website at www.dqsolar.com. So today, attending the conference call, we have our Chairman and CEO, Mr.

Speaker 1

Xiang Shu our CFO, Mr. Ming Yang and myself. The call today will begin with an update from Mr. Shu on market conditions and company operations, and then Mr. Yang will discuss the company's performance for the quarter and the year.

Speaker 1

After that, we'll open the floor to Q and A from the audience. Before we begin the formal remarks, I would like to remind you that certain statements on today's call, including expected future operational and financial performance and industry growth, are forward looking statements that are made under the Safe Harbor provisions of the U. S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties.

Speaker 1

A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward looking statement. Further information regarding these and other risks is included in the reports or documents we have filed with or furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission. These statements only reflect our current and preliminary view as of today and may be subject to change. Our ability to achieve these projections is subject to risks and uncertainties. All information provided in today's call is as of today, and we undertake no duty to update such information, except as required under applicable law.

Speaker 1

Also during the call, we'll occasionally reference monetary amounts in U. S. Dollar terms. Please keep in mind that our functional currency is a Chinese RMB. We offer these translations into U.

Speaker 1

S. Dollars solely for the convenience of the audience. Mr. Xu will make his remarks regarding current market conditions and company performance in Chinese, which I'll translate into English after he finishes. So now, I'll turn the call to our CEO,

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Speaker 1

Hello, everyone. This is Anita. I'll now translate our CEO, Mr. Xu's remarks. The solar industry experienced significant challenges during the Q2 as market prices fell across the solar value chain to below production costs for nearly the entire industry.

Speaker 1

As end of quarter polysilicon ASP fell below our production costs, we were required in accordance with accounting rules to record a noncash inventory impairment expense of CNY 108,000,000 because our inventory market value fell below book value. This had a significant negative impact on our cost of revenue, gross loss, operating loss and net loss. Nevertheless, we continue to maintain a strong balance sheet free of financial debt. By the end of the quarter, we had a cash balance of CNY 997,000,000 and a combined cash and banknote receivable balance of CNY 1,100,000,000. To take advantage of higher interest rates compared to bank savings, we purchased $1,400,000,000 of short term investments and fixed term deposits during the quarter.

Speaker 1

Inclusive of short term investment and fixed term deposits, we had adequate liquidity with the balance of quick assets in the amount of USD 2,500,000,000 On the operational front, during the Q2, we started initial production of our 100,000 metric tons Phase 5b polysilicon project in Inner Mongolia's plant, which contributed approximately 12% of our total production volume. Overall, the total production volume of our 2 polysilicon facilities for the quarter was 64,961 metric tonnes, exceeding our expectations and representing an increase of 2,683 metric tons compared to production volume for the previous quarter. Through continued investment in R and D and dedication to purity improvements at both facilities, our overall entai product mix reached 73% during the quarter. Remarkably, even our Phase 5b, which was still in the ramping up stage, had 70% entai in the product mix, strengthening our confidence in achieving 100 percent entai by the end of next year. In addition, our production costs trended down further in the Q2, decreasing by 3% from Q1 2024 to an average of RMB 6.19 per kilogram.

Speaker 1

In light of the current market conditions and pricing, we have adjusted our target production utilization rate for the Q3 and our production plan for the full year. We expect our Q3 2024 total polysilicon production volume to be approximately 43,000 metric tonnes to 46,000 metric tonnes as we start up maintenance and lowered our production utilization rate to support pricing and reduce our cash burn. As a result, we anticipate our full year 2024 production volume to be in the range of 210,000 metric tons to 220,000 metric tons. During the Q2, solar market sentiments was depressed, and customers showed little interest in purchasing for products. As a result, polysilicon prices kept setting new loads.

Speaker 1

Below production costs and even below cash costs, polysilicon prices plummeted from slightly above RMB 60 per kilogram on average in April to RMB 40 to RMB 55 per kilogram in late April and further dropped below RMB 40 per kilogram near the end of May through the end of June. Overall, sales pressure intensified as industry wide plus silicon inventory increased from approximately 18 to 20 days of production in early April to more than a month of production by the end of June. With prices declining for weeks to below the industry's cash costs and inventory accumulating, we began to see maintenances of production costs across the industry. Based on industry statistics, the total polysilicon production volume in China dropped about 15% from approximately 192,000 metric tons per month in April to approximately 162,000 metric tons in June. However, the supply of polysilicon still exceeded the wafer customer demand, which has dropped around 50 gigawatts in June due to lower utilization rate.

Speaker 1

In July, although there have been further industry polysilicon production cuts, an uptick in demand from downstream manufacturers will be needed to drive inventory reduction and price recovery. The solar industry has gone through multiple cycles in the past. And based on our previous experience, we believe the current low price market downturn will eventually result in a healthier market as full profitability of losses and cash burn will lead to many industry players exiting the business with some possible bankruptcies. This will bring the inevitable capacity rationalization, eventually solve the current overcapacity and ultimately bring the solar PV industry back to normal profitability and better margins. This year will be challenging for China's solar PV industry as solar manufacturers along the value chain experienced weak margins driven by oversupply, excessive inventory and lower prices.

Speaker 1

At this point, we may have reached a cyclical bottom but do not yet see clear signs of potential improvement. We believe that the current situation of selling below cash cost is unsustainable and that many solar firms are facing significant cash flow challenges, leading to delays in loan repayment and order deliveries. Therefore, we're likely to see some market consolidation with higher cost manufacturers gradually phasing out capacity and exiting the business. So recently, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association has urged central and local governments, financial institutions and companies to coordinate to accelerate industry consolidation. Chinese policymakers are also calling for the healthy expansion of such solar industry.

Speaker 1

China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a draft in early July that sets rules for solar projects, such as meeting specific electricity consumption requirements and minimum capital ratio for new and expansion projects to ensure the high quality development of the solar PV industry and eliminate outdated capacity. On the demand side, we continue to see strong growth in new solar PV installations in China during the first half of twenty twenty four, which reached 102.48 gigawatts, representing 30.7% year over year growth rate. Overall, in the long run, solar PV is expected to be one of the most competitive forms of power generation in China, and the continuous cost reductions of solar PV products and the associated reductions in solar energy generation costs are expected to create substantial additional demand for solar PV. We believe that we're well positioned to weather the current market downturn and emerge as one of the leaders in the industry to capture future growth. So now I'll turn the call to our CFO, Mr.

Speaker 1

Ming Yang, who will discuss the company's financial performance for the quarter. Ming, please go ahead.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Mr. Shi and Nida. Hello, everyone. This is Ming Yang, CFO of Daqo New Energy. We appreciate you joining our earnings conference call today.

Speaker 2

I will now go over the company's Q2 2024 financial performance. Revenues were RMB220 1,000,000 compared to RMB415.3 million in the Q1 of 2024 and RMB637 1,000,000 in the Q2 of 2023. The decrease in revenue compared to the Q1 of 2024 was primarily due to a decrease in the ASP as well as decreased sales volume. Gross loss was $159,000,000 RMB159 1,000,000 compared to our gross profit of RMB72 1,000,000 in the Q1 of 2024 and RMB259 1,000,000 in the Q2 of 2023. Gross margin was negative 72% compared to 17.4% in the Q1 of 2024 and 40.7% in the Q2 of 2023.

Speaker 2

For the Q2 of 2024, the company recorded $108,000,000 in inventory impairment expenses as the company's inventories market value falls below book value. The decrease in gross margin compared to the Q1 of 2024 was also due to lower ASP, which was partially mitigated by lower production costs. SG and A expenses were $37,500,000 compared to $38,400,000 in the Q1 of 2024 $43,300,000 in the Q2 of 2023.

Speaker 3

SG and

Speaker 2

A expenses during the Q2 included $19,600,000 in non cash share based compensation costs related to the company's share incentive plans compared to $19,600,000 in the Q1 of 2024. R and D expenses were $1,800,000 compared to $1,500,000 in the Q1 of 2024 and $2,200,000 in the Q2 of 2023. R and D expenses vary from period to period and reflect R and D activities that take place during the quarter. Most of our R and D activities has been around increasing our entire percentage. As a result of the foregoing, loss from operations was $196,000,000 compared to income from operations of $30,500,000 in the Q1 of 2024 and $214,000,000 in the Q2 of 2023.

Speaker 2

Operating margin was negative 89% compared to 7.3% in the Q1 of 2024 and 33.6% in the Q2 of 2023. Foreign exchange loss was 1,400,000 dollars compared to $300,000 in the Q1 of 2024, which is attributable to the volatility and fluctuation of the U. S. Dollar and Chinese New Year exchange rate during the quarter. Net loss attributable to Daqo New Energy shareholders was $120,000,000 compared to net income of $15,500,000 in the Q1 of 2024 and $103,700,000 in the Q2 of 2023.

Speaker 2

Loss per basic ADS for the quarter was $1.81 compared to earnings per ADS of $0.24 in the Q1 of 2024 and $1.35 in the Q2 of 2023. Non GAAP adjusted net loss attributable to Daqo New Energy shareholders excluding non cash share based compensation costs was $98,800,000 compared to adjusted net income of non GAAP attributable to Daqo New Energy shareholders of $36,000,000 in the Q1 of 2024 and $134,500,000 in the Q2 of 2023. Adjusted loss per basic ADS was $1.50 compared to adjusted earnings per basic ADS of $0.55 in the Q1 of 2024 and $1.75 in the Q2 of 2023. EBITDA was negative $145,000,000 compared to $76,900,000 in the Q1 of 2024 $230,000,000 in the Q2 of 2023. EBITDA margin was negative 66% compared to 18.5% in the Q1 of 2024 and 36% in the Q2 of 2023.

Speaker 2

Now on the company's financial condition. As of June 30, 2024, the company had $1,000,000,000 in cash and cash equivalent and adjusted cash compared to $2,700,000,000 as of March 31, 2024 and $2,170,000,000 as of June 30, 2023. And as of June 30, 2024, the notes' fee total balance was $80,700,000 compared to $194,000,000 as of March 31, 2024 and $798,000,000 as of June 30, 2023. Note receivables represent banknotes with maturity within 6 months. And as of June 30, 2024, fixed term deposits within 1 year balance was $1,200,000,000 compared to nil in previous periods.

Speaker 2

For the 6 months ended June 30, 2024, net cash used in operating activities was 200 and $78,600,000 compared to net cash provided by operating activities of $786,000,000 in the same period of 2023. And for the 6 months ended June 30, 2024, net cash used in investing activities was $1,700,000,000 compared to RMB496 1,000,000 in the same period of 2023. The net cash used in investing activities in the Q2 was primarily related to purchase of short term investment and fixed term deposits, which amounted to RMB1.4 billion. And regarding the company's purchase of property and plant equipment, for the 1st 6 months of this year, this amounted to RMB292 1,000,000. We currently anticipate full year capital expenditures in the range of RMB 550 1,000,000 to RMB600 1,000,000 which is a further reduction from our earlier plans.

Speaker 2

Capital expenditure for the second half of twenty twenty four is therefore expected to be in the range of $260,000,000 to $310,000,000 Capital expenditure for the year is primarily related to our Inner Mongolia polysilicon project Phase 1 and Phase 2. And for the 6 months ended June 30, 2024, net cash used in finance activities was $43,000,000 compared to $477,000,000 in the same period of 2023. The net cash used in finance activities in the Q2 of 2024 was primarily related to dividend payments and share repurchase by our company's net subsidiary. And that concludes our prepared remarks. We will now open the call to Q and A from the audience.

Speaker 2

Operator, please begin.

Operator

We will now begin the question and answer session. The first question comes from Phil Shen with ROTH Capital Partners. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Hi, this is Matt Ingram on for Phil. Thank you for taking our questions. Looking ahead, can you give us a sense of pricing and cost structure beyond this year? Do you think that there could be some recovery in price next year? And how much room how much more room do you have to lower the cost structure?

Speaker 2

Hello. This is Ming, CFO of Falcon Imaging Energy. Thank you for your question. I think in recent months, specifically in August, we've already seen some pickup and recovery of pricing. As Anita said at the bottom, I guess in terms of June July, pricing was below RMB40 per kilogram.

Speaker 2

And as of now, pricing is the range of RMB41 to RMB42 per kilogram. So we saw a range somewhere in between RMB2 to RMB3 per kilogram in terms of price recovery. And this is primarily a result of the industry's production reduction and a slight uptick in demand from customers. So we do not think the current pricing is sustainable. We do believe that, say, over the rest of the year, we should continue to see likely between RMB 2 to, let's say, RMB 4 kind of price recovery as production continue to remain at a lower level.

Speaker 2

And while for next year, we do believe that as demand continue to improve, especially from new markets like Middle East, Latin America, Africa. And again, I think further market developments in China and Europe, for example. So we do think that pricing should recover to at least production costs or maybe normalized to higher production costs, higher than production costs. So we think maybe mid next year is when we will see normalized pricing for polysilicon. Great.

Speaker 2

Thank you. And a quickly thought about your cost structure. We do think there continue to be opportunity to reduce costs. I think we're seeing very successful cost trends from our in Mongolia Phase 2 facility. I think you saw approximately 3% reduction of costs from Q2 to Q1.

Speaker 2

And we do expect that Q3 costs should be flat to slightly lower than Q2. So we think in the second half, we should overall, we should see costs somewhere around $6 or even slightly lower than $6 And we think this cost structure should continue next year.

Speaker 4

Really appreciate the color there. And then can you just talk about the channel inventory in the market? Do you expect that to continue to grow near term? And where do you think that peaks?

Speaker 2

Okay. Actually, China inventory has already peaked. So inventory is actually coming down as of August, and we think this should continue to go down. I think primarily as a result of continued reduction in supply. So we think it should probably reduce to a much more reasonable level by, say, Q4 or by the end of the year, right?

Speaker 2

So unless we see some kind of meaningful price recovery, at least above the industry cash costs, we're very unlikely to see improvements in production.

Speaker 4

Okay, great. Thank you for the color. I'll pass it on.

Speaker 2

Great. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Alan Lau with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Speaker 3

Thanks for taking my question. So, I would like to know about what is the breakdown on the impairment of $108,000,000 because and also the inventory level at the end of 2Q, because it appears that the production volume is higher than sales volume for 20,000. So is 20,000 a fair assumption on the inventory level by end of 2Q? And if that is the case, an impairment of 108,000,000 seems huge. So we'd like to know the basis on that.

Speaker 2

Okay. So the reality is the $108,000,000 is a reduction in not just finished goods, but also work in process inventory and raw material, which reduces our cost from our production cost, let's say, is around $6.19 per kilogram to really the current or the current market pricing, which is below RMB40 per kilogram. And about 60% of that is related to finished goods inventory. Okay. And then looking at our inventory at the end of the quarter.

Speaker 2

Give me a minute. Let me just quickly look that up. Okay. Approximately 28,000 metric tons. Okay.

Speaker 2

So we built roughly 20,000 metric tons of inventory like you said during the quarter because of the market conditions and the weak demand. But I think starting in August, we're starting to see a reduction in inventory right now.

Speaker 3

Thank you. So if 60% is finished goods, so it's basically around, I guess, dollars 60,000,000 to $70,000,000 of the impairment is related to the impairment on 28,000 tonnes, right? So that's still like around $2 to $3 per kilogram. So does this seem huge because the production cost the spread between the ASP and the production cost appears to be only $1 per kilogram. So I would like to know, did I miss anything from this front?

Speaker 2

Okay. I think, realistically, if you look at pricing, especially what it looks where we have to reduce our inventory to, like somewhere in the range of, say, RMB 37 to RMB 38 per kilogram. So that's what let me do a quick math.

Speaker 3

So the ASP is RMB 37 as well, it's at RMB 38, but your production cost is only at around 40 something. So if the impairment

Speaker 2

RMB 45, right? RMB 45 per kilogram. Yes. So that's around Yes. So that's around RMB

Speaker 3

12 and then but if it's RMB 28,000 then it's still at most it should be like RMB 300,000,000 maybe. So since the impairment amount

Speaker 2

RMB 50,000,000. And then there's also raw materials, right? And then work in process inventory that's also being reviewed. Reduced. So

Speaker 3

maybe we will move on to the guidance. So have noted that the production volume guidance on 3Q and second half has reduced significantly. So would like to know, first of all, the thinking behind this is just to preserve cash. And secondly, what do you see like the utilization rates of your peers? Do they also cut their production volume as well?

Speaker 2

I would say yes. So for most of our peers, I think with the exception of maybe one of the main one, I think most have reduced utilization significantly, I think in light of the current market pricing environment. I think certainly, I think in the current market condition, I think we have to balance, right, I think in the most economical way in terms of maintaining production while at the same time minimizing cash burn and cash loss. So we do believe that the current utilization level that we have that we're operating in in light of pricing remains below cash cost is the most prudent, I think, also the most effective way of minimizing the cash burn of the company.

Speaker 3

So there is effectively around 70% of utilization, right? So will this impact the production cost or is fine?

Speaker 2

It's actually, I would say, overall, very minimal impact on production costs. I think only RMB 1 to RMB 2. Yes, because let's see, almost 80% of our cost is what we call variable cost, which is electricity and energy and other consumables like steam and graphite and the silicon C raw.

Speaker 3

Understood. So regarding to the fixed deposit of an investment of RMB1.4 billion, So I'd like to know how long is those investment and how liquid are those? So basically, the question is related to buybacks because I'd like to know the liquidity of the company on that front.

Speaker 2

Okay. Almost all the fixed investment and term loans were purchased by the Xinjiang dotco subsidiary, right? So in terms of the U. S. Lithco and our cash balance, it's virtually all of it is in liquid savings accounts or money market funds.

Speaker 2

So and then that RMB1.4 billion is primarily in either 6 months, I could call it, fixed time deposits with Chinese domestic banks or higher interest savings products offered by the banks.

Speaker 3

I see.

Speaker 2

So And those are 3 months.

Speaker 3

All within 3 months, right?

Speaker 2

Yes.

Speaker 3

I see. So my last question is basically on the buyback. So the company has launched a $100,000,000 buyback program. So I'd like to know if the company is going to continue on the buyback and what is the planning of the buyback? Like which price you think it's appropriate?

Speaker 3

Or do you think the current stock price is to the level where you think the company will actually accelerate the buyback?

Speaker 1

Yes. Thank you, Alan. So in terms of the share repurchase program, so we are authorized in the amount of US100 $1,000,000 back in July. So in terms so we definitely think that our stock is undervalued. But in terms of the pace, I would say that it will be contingent upon the market conditions and we'll be more opportunistic in terms of the repurchase.

Speaker 2

So we're going to look probably to repurchase as many shares as possible for the company to maximize the money that we spend in terms of its effectiveness.

Speaker 3

I see. And yes, as you have explained, so the cash is already there in the U. S. Level. So probably, it's going to still go ahead in this year, right?

Speaker 2

That's our current assumption, yes.

Speaker 3

I see. Thank you. So I'll pass on. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Great. Thank you, Alain.

Operator

The next question comes from Rajeev Chowdhury with Sunsara Capital. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Good morning. My question the first question relates to the fully loaded costs that you will incur in Q3 and Q4. If you are reducing the utilization rate, shouldn't that actually increase your fully loaded costs relative to the 4th relative to the 3rd quarter?

Speaker 2

Well, I think interesting that's passed through with the cost structure of polysilicon production, right? So roughly 35% to 40% is electricity and then another 35% is silicon metal. And then majority of other costs is actually mostly consumables like graphite, the silicon seed rod and the packaging. So if I look at what would these we would call you can call it variable costs where we don't produce, right? We don't buy silicon metal.

Speaker 2

We don't buy the consumables. So these represent actually more than 80% of the cost. Okay. The remaining 20%, approximately 13% is depreciation, right, which is the non cash portion. So yes, depreciation will the depreciation the overall depreciation expense will be aggregated over a smaller volume.

Speaker 2

But I think the overall impact is not that much, right, because it's not a huge portion of our cost. And while in terms of the rest is labor, labor, let me see, roughly 6% of our costs. And then we were reducing labor costs by between 10% to 20%. We're optimizing our staffing level, for example. So I think the overall impact is actually not that significant.

Speaker 2

As we maintain production, right, because we're reducing production by what, maybe 30%, 35%, something like that, relative to previous levels.

Speaker 5

A second question is related to the difference between production and sales. So you will produce 210,000 to 220,000 tonnes, but the sales are likely to be higher than that, right? I mean, if you expect inventories to get back to normal by the end of the year, then sales are likely to be, I don't know, $240,000 to $250,000 Is that the right way to think about it?

Speaker 2

I can only say we well, that's you're talking about the full year, right? But I think realistically in the first half, we did build inventory. So volume was less than production. And we expect the second half, we will see more sales than production, right?

Speaker 5

Right.

Speaker 2

But it depends again, it's early, right? It's only August. So it really depends on how much more sales we can achieve relative to production.

Speaker 5

I see. But for the year as a whole, you expect sales to be greater than production, right?

Speaker 2

It's difficult to tell. It's really up to Q4 performance.

Speaker 5

I see. Okay. And can you give us any specific examples of companies that are of competitors who are actually closing shop as this thing from just reducing their output right now?

Speaker 2

Well, I think one well known case that happened recently is a company called Renyang, which I think they have a nameplate of over 100,000 metric ton. And that company was in a financial crisis where they had problems repaying their bank loans and they have major issues repaying their suppliers and even paying interest. So our understanding is they're being consolidated by Tongwei. So and Tongwei is doing due diligence on them right now. Yes.

Speaker 2

So I think they have significantly reduced production. And then we know of 2 other cases where we're not going to say the company's name, but one new entrant actually built a 50,000 metric ton facility actually never even started that facility. That facility remains idle. It's complete and idle. And then there's another peer competitor, I think they've built they've claimed they've built approximately 100,000 to 200,000 metric ton capacity, but we our understanding is the volume that they're selling to the market is actually fairly trivial.

Speaker 2

So those are the cases that we know of right now.

Speaker 5

So when you look at Ming, when you look at the year as a whole, 2024 as a whole, do you think that with the sales that you will do, which will be, let's say, around your total production levels, that you would have gained or lost market share in 2024?

Speaker 2

I think at least based on the latest industry production, so even though we reduced utilization, I think we're still maintaining market share. I think based on our current production level, we're roughly, I'd say, 15% of the market.

Speaker 5

But your total output would be about 10% higher than last year or I should say maybe your total sales will be about 10% higher than last year, right? So do you think that that is roughly the growth rate of the market this year, 10%?

Speaker 2

Well, I think it really depends on especially Q4 because if you look at our production and sales volume in the first half, especially for Q1, it's still relatively healthy. It's really Q2, it came down. And then at this point, we're expecting our Q3 sales volume and shipment to be above Q2. And then Q4 is looking at least for now, is looking at a positive trend. So I would say, if I look at industry statistics, I think it's still expecting roughly 20% kind of improvement.

Speaker 2

Okay. So maybe more than 20%. Yes. Okay. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Anita Hsu for any closing remarks.

Speaker 1

Thank you, everyone, again for participating in today's conference call. Should you have any further questions, please don't hesitate to contact us. Thank you, and have an awesome day. Goodbye.

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

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Daqo New Energy Q2 2024
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