Nexstar Media Group Q2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
August 8, 2024

There are 9 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good day, and welcome to Nexstar Media Group's Second Quarter 2024 Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to Joe Jaffoni, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Paul, and good morning, everyone. I'll first review the Safe Harbor language, and then we'll get right into the call. All statements and comments made by management during today's conference call other than statements of historical fact may be deemed forward looking statements for purposes of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Nexstar cautions that these forward looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those reflected by the forward looking statements made during today's call. For additional details on these risks and uncertainties, please see Nexstar's Annual Report on Form 10 ks for the year ended December 31, 2023, as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and Nexstar's subsequent public filings with the SEC.

Speaker 1

Nexstar undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. It's now my pleasure to turn the conference call over to your host, Nexstar Founder, Chairman and CEO, Perry Sook. Perry, please go ahead.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Joseph, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. With me on our call today are Mike Baird, our President and Chief Operating Officer and Leanne Glieha, our Chief Financial Officer. I will start with a summary of the recent highlights followed by Mike's operations review and then Leanne will review our financials. Nexstar's strong second quarter financial results mark another quarter of record total net revenue and our 3rd consecutive quarter of all time high quarterly distribution revenue.

Speaker 2

We translated this revenue growth into another quarter of solid adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow growth, reflecting our disciplined operating strategies. Just stop and think about that for a minute. At a time when the pay TV industry continues to experience subscriber attrition and there is intense competition for national advertising dollars, Nexstar generated the highest first and second quarter distribution and total revenue levels in the company's history. Why is that? Well, it comes down to the value of our programming and reach deliver to audiences, customers and programming partners.

Speaker 2

The power of broadcast television was again validated in a few recent high profile settings. For example, the NBA bypassed the contract renewal on a cable television network in favor of a deal that included increased distribution on broadcast television, given our tremendous proven value of the broadcast model that that will bring to the league. In fact, a recent statement by the NBA said, Throughout these negotiations, our primary objective has been to maximize the reach and accessibility of our games for our fans. We know that reach and accessibility is the lifeblood of every sport and there's no platform that can match the reach of broadcast television. This is a proven path that has sustained the long term growth of the NFL and one we believe the NBA will prosper from as well.

Speaker 2

To that point, NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell reiterated his commitment to broadcast television during an interview just last month saying, A lot of our media is not about the dollars as much as it is about how we reach more fans. That's the primary objective for us. He went on to comment that the NFL's presence on broadcast is what has led to the great not only popularity of the league, but obviously the great ratings. The broadcast television business model is anchored by loyal pay television subscribers, including sports and news viewers who subscribe in order to access our content and which account for the increasingly large percentage of the pay TV subscriber universe and the high net worth audiences aged 45 plus who enjoy the superior interface and experience that Pay TV provides. Moreover, as more media companies lean back into the power of linear, the only segment that generates profit by the way, we expect the relative value of the pay TV bundle with all of its premium sports and local news content to look more and more attractive, leading to an inflection point in the future in subscriber attrition.

Speaker 2

Beyond that, we believe the Nexstar story is highly differentiated based on the operating leverage our scale provides, enabling us to generate consistently strong free cash flow and maintain a solid balance sheet. As a result, we have delivered outsized long term returns for our shareholders. In the first half of twenty 24 alone, we returned 74% of our year to date adjusted free cash flow or $358,000,000 to shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases, reducing our share count by over 3% just this year alone. Now I'd like to briefly touch on some of our achievements in the quarter, including the progress we're making on our longer term growth drivers, including the CW. Nexstar has owned the network for less than 2 years and we're making excellent progress as we continue on our march to turning that business around.

Speaker 2

The CW operating loss improved by $33,000,000 in the 2nd quarter and by $83,000,000 year to date, largely driven by our reductions in programming costs and SG and A. For the full year, we remain on plan and continue to expect the CW's operating loss to improve by over 100,000,000 dollars Our programming strategies are being validated as The CW delivered its 3rd consecutive quarter of primetime entertainment ratings growth since implementing our new programming lineup. Continuing this positive trend in May, we added Police 20 fourseven to the network, which has quickly risen to the number 2 CW series across all demos. We've also announced our fall primetime schedule for the 2024 or 2025 broadcast season, which will include a mix of new and returning original series and family friend game shows, including Superman and Lois, Sullivan's Crossing and Inside the NFL, which is moving to Friday nights to preview the upcoming weekend's games and which will now feature the unique insights and analysis of the legendary Bill Belichick. New premieres will include Trivial Pursuit hosted by LeVar Burton and Scrabble hosted by Raven Symone and we reviewed the popular series All American and Wild Card.

Speaker 2

We also announced that Pac-twelve Football will be joining our lineup of marquee sports, including LiveGolf, ACC Football and Basketball, the NASCAR Xfinity Series and WWE Next. The CW will broadcast 11 Pac-twelve football games beginning August 31 with a doubleheader featuring each of Washington State and Oregon State. Additionally, The CW will be the exclusive broadcast home to the 2024 Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl. Sports remains an important component of our strategy to attract viewers and advertisers and the Nexstar CW is already clearly different than the one we acquired in 2022. We believe that the best is yet to come.

Speaker 2

As we've said previously, the station side of our business continues to benefit from our ownership of the network. We announced that 3 additional Nexstar stations in Chicago, Norfolk and Lafayette, Louisiana will become CW network affiliates beginning September 1. These additions benefit us by generating additional operating profit on the station side of our ledger. To date, we have announced the addition of 14 CW affiliates to our station group, bringing the number of company and partner owned CWs to 49, covering over 45% of all U. S.

Speaker 2

Television households, marking the biggest station footprint of all of the big five networks. Turning to NewsNation, we successfully expanded to 20 fourseven cable news network on June 1, ahead of schedule, which enabled us to be on the air live during recent history making news events. We were live on the air during the attempted assassination of former President Trump and when President Biden announced that he was dropping out of the 2024 presidential race. Importantly, our team's focused effort to build a fact based journalism first news network continues to pay off. According to Nielsen, NewsNation's total viewers in prime time were up over 200% in Q2 of 2024 versus Q2 of 2021, the comparable period following the network's rebranding and launch in March of that year.

Speaker 2

And while we are executing well on our business, we continue to take a leadership role supporting the communities where we operate. Each June on the anniversary of Nexstar's founding, we give employees a half day with pay to perform voluntary community service or charity work. This June, we again celebrated Founders Day with more than 5,000 of our employees participating. The work benefited 241 community service organizations or public charities by helping with meal preparation, building of houses, school backpack, hygiene kit assemblies, trash collections and blood donation among other activities. In addition, we also raised nearly $150,000 on behalf of these community service organizations.

Speaker 2

On the corporate governance front, subject to quarter end, we announced the appointment of Ellen Johnson, Executive Vice President and CFO of Interpublic Group of Companies to our Board Directors. As many of you know, IPG is one of the world's leading providers of marketing and advertising solutions and Ellen has served as an integral member of IPG's executive team for many years. Her extensive financial and advertising industry experience, coupled with her expertise in all areas of ESG and information technology, which she oversees at IPG, will be invaluable to Nexstar as we continue to advance our business and execute on the company's goals to enhance shareholder value. Ellen will join our Board effective October 1. And once Ellen joins, our Board will be back to 10 members of which 9 will be independent and 3 will be women.

Speaker 2

Before I turn it over to Mike, let me make a final comment. We have a differentiated business and cash generative operating model underpinned by strong execution and the unique scale of our local and national media assets. Our unmatched competitive attributes provide Nexstar with the financial strength and operating leverage to support our strategy as we pursue several substantial growth opportunities ahead of us. Finally, our confidence in our future is underscored by our Board's recent approval of a new $1,500,000,000 share repurchase authorization. With all of that said, let me turn the call over to Mike.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Perry, and good morning, everyone. As Perry referenced, we delivered record 2nd quarter net revenue of $1,270,000,000 compared to $1,240,000,000 in the prior year quarter. The 2.3% increase in net revenue was primarily due to growth in distribution revenue and advertising revenue driven by political. All time high 2nd quarter distribution revenue grew 5.5 percent to $734,000,000 primarily due to contract renewals on terms favorable to the company and annual rate escalators, growth in vMVPD subscribers, the addition of CW affiliations to certain of our stations and the return of our partner stations on 1 MVPD, all of which more than offset MVPD subscriber attrition. Excluding the removal of partner stations from certain MVPDs last year, our subscribers grew in the quarter in the low single digit range, reflecting the benefit of the new launches of our CW, My Network TV and independent stations on YouTube TV and other vMVPDs, the addition of new CW affiliations to Nexstar stations and recent station acquisitions.

Speaker 3

Zooming out on our distribution business for some perspective. Over the last renewal cycle, we made tremendous progress completing distribution and network affiliation agreements on favorable terms, while expanding distribution of our Nexstar owned national networks, including the CW and NewsNation. All of this is testament to the power of our content, scale and strategy. As a result, our net distribution revenues grew in the high single digit percentage range this quarter. And as you know, we announced an agreement to renew the CBS affiliations with ours and our partner stations.

Speaker 3

Turning to advertising. 2nd quarter advertising revenue increased 2.2% compared to the prior year, reflecting a year over year increase in political advertising, which more than offset a reduction in non political advertising. Non political advertising improved sequentially from a 7% year over year decline in Q1 2024 to a 4.7% year over year decline in the 2nd quarter. So far in Q3 twenty twenty four, non political advertising trends continue to improve sequentially. We are seeing a slower all in rate of decline versus the 2nd quarter as we are currently pacing down in the low single digits in the Q3 year over year with the impact of the Olympics aiding this pacing.

Speaker 3

While we are encouraged by these trends, we continue to be impacted by a challenging advertising market. As political advertising increases through Election Day, especially in September October, we expect to see some displacement or crowd out of non political revenue. Turning to political. In the Q2, political advertising of $45,000,000 increased by $37,000,000 year over year and was more than double that of 2020 when we generated $22,000,000 in the same period. We estimate our market share of total political television spending year to date was in the low teens, which is consistent with our expected market share for the full year.

Speaker 3

While we generate most of our political advertising revenue from Senate, House, gubernatorial races and ballot initiatives, a competitive presidential race is always incrementally positive, especially when there is an intense battle for control of both the Senate and House. Of course, President Biden's decision to pass the baton to Vice President Harris kept the existing Biden Harris fundraising in place, seemingly galvanizing both parties and driving meaningful incremental fundraising that ultimately will flow back into political advertising. Our focused approach to optimizing the political advertising opportunity combined with our scaled presence in markets representing the substantial majority of contested races continues to position Nexstar to maximize the political revenue opportunity. As America's largest local broadcasting company, we have the unique scale and resources to produce and distribute the most comprehensive political news and live debate coverage in our markets, as well as comprehensive national reporting on NewsNation and The Hill, America's number one political news site for inside the beltway politics. You will continue to see plenty of engaging journalism first political programming from us during this election cycle, we look forward to bringing voters continuing objective and impartial coverage.

Speaker 3

And as Perry mentioned, with the accelerated move to 20 fourseven news, NewsNation has demonstrated its capacity to cover breaking news any day of the week on par with its peers at the most established news networks. As a reflection of our journalist talent, Nexstar and its partner stations earned 35 Regional Edward R. Murrow Awards from the Radio Television Digital News Association, including recognition for overall excellence, breaking news coverage and newscast. Our newsrooms produce fact based and even handed coverage every day at scale and Nexstar's high standards of journalistic integrity enable us to develop and maintain trusted relationships with our audiences and communities. This balanced approach at our stations and at NewsNation is recognized by independent watchdog groups, including Ad Fontes.

Speaker 3

In summary, we remain focused on managing our business through the advertising market recovery and we remain confident about the outlook for political having generated over $500,000,000 of revenue in each of the last two cycles. We have incredible accomplished teams in each of our businesses and we continue to execute well against our plan, delivering strong revenues, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow. With that, it's my pleasure to turn the call over to Leanne for the remainder of the financial review. Leanne?

Speaker 4

Thank you, Mike, and good morning, everyone. Mike gave you most of the details on the revenue side, so I'll provide a review of expenses, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow along with a review of our capital allocation activities. Together, 2nd quarter direct operating and SG and A expenses excluding depreciation and amortization and corporate expenses decreased by $17,000,000 or increased by $17,000,000 or 2%. The increase was primarily due to the expansion of news programming, direct digital operating expenses as well as various administrative expenses offset in part by a reduction in severance by the CW by $4,000,000 Included in our calculation of adjusted EBITDA, but not included in direct operating and SG and A expenses are the payments for broadcast rights at our stations, which declined by $6,000,000 in Q2 due primarily to reduced reliance on syndicated content at NewsNation as we transition to 20 fourseven news. Also included on our calculation of adjusted EBITDA, but not included in direct operating and SG and A expenses is the amortization of test rights related to the CW, effectively the CW's programming expenses, which declined by $49,000,000 year over year $120,000,000 in the Q2 of 2023 to $71,000,000 in Q2 2024 as we continue to reduce our programming expenses.

Speaker 4

Q222 total corporate expense was $54,000,000 including non cash compensation expense of $20,000,000 compared to $49,000,000 including non cash compensation expense of $13,000,000 in the Q2 of 2023. The increase $5,000,000 is primarily due to new restricted stock grants and the timing of grants offset in part by reduced legal fees and other administrative expenses. Q2222024 depreciation and amortization was $208,000,000 versus $262,000,000 in the prior year quarter, a reduction of $54,000,000 due primarily to lower programming expenses at the CW I described a moment ago. Please note that the CW's programming costs, which are included in our definitions of adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow are accounted for in this line item as amortization of broadcast rights. For more information about this amount, please refer to the schedules in our earnings release and in our 10 Q.

Speaker 4

We received $19,000,000 in Q2 distributions from equity investments related to our 31% ownership in TV Food Network, which represents a 27% decrease from the prior year quarter. The reduced amount reflects lower income at TV Food Network related primarily to lower advertising revenue. Putting it all together, on a consolidated basis, 2nd quarter adjusted EBITDA was $398,000,000 represented a 31.4 percent margin, an increase of $63,000,000 from the 2nd quarter 2023 adjusted EBITDA of $335,000,000 and an increase in margin of 4.40 basis points from the Q2 2023 margin of 27%. This margin improvement is due in part to improvement in our net distribution margin year over year. 2nd quarter CapEx was $37,000,000 compared to $41,000,000 in the Q2 of last year, a decrease of $4,000,000 due primarily to expenditure plan for the year.

Speaker 4

2nd quarter net interest expense increased to $113,000,000 from $111,000,000 in the prior year due to higher SOFR rates applicable to our floating rate debt. Cash interest expense was $110,000,000 for the quarter. 2nd quarter operating cash taxes were $164,000,000 compared to $119,000,000 in 2023 due primarily to estimated tax payments for 2024 reflecting a higher expected pre tax income than in 2023. Payments for capitalized software obligations, net appropriate for disposal of assets and insurance recoveries were $9,000,000 versus $4,000,000 last year. And putting this all together, consolidated Q2 2024 adjusted free cash flow was $78,000,000 as compared to $74,000,000 last year.

Speaker 4

Together with the cash from operations generated in the quarter and cash on hand, we returned $190,000,000 to shareholders comprised of $55,000,000 in dividends and the repurchase of $135,000,000 of stock at an accretive average price of $159.21 reducing shares outstanding net of equity investing by 1.7%. Nexstar's outstanding debt at June 30, 2024 was $6,800,000,000 down slightly for the quarter as we made quarterly amortization payments of $31,000,000 Our cash balance at quarter end was 146,000,000 included $45,000,000 of cash related to the CW. Because we designated the CW as an unrestricted subsidiary, the losses associated with the CW are not accounted for in our calculation of leverage for purposes of our credit agreement. As such, our net leverage our net first lien covenant ratio for Nexstar excluding CW at June 30, 2024 was 2.19 times, which is well below our 1st lien and only covenant of 4.25 times. Our total net leverage for Nexstar excluding CW was 3.69 times at quarter end.

Speaker 4

As is typical in political years, we expect leverage which we calculate on an LTM basis versus a 2 year average to fall during 2024, as adjusted EBITDA grows with election year political advertising. As we move forward, we continue to strategically deploy our cash in a manner that is consistent with our commitment to creating the highest shareholder value. And with that, I'm going to open up the call for questions. Operator, can you go to our first question?

Operator

Thank you. Our first question is from Benjamin Soff with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 5

Hey, guys. Good morning and thanks for the question. I wanted to start on political and just get your updated thoughts on what do you think you can do in that business given the changes in the presidential election and the activity that that drove? And then I wanted to follow-up on advertising. Can you drill down a bit more into the core advertising performance?

Speaker 5

And in particular, what you were seeing on the national and local side compared to maybe what you were expecting as of the last call? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Sure. I'll start with political. I saw that BIA independently raised their political spending projection for the year to yesterday, up by $560,000,000 to $11,700,000,000 for 2024, which would represent a 21.3% increase over the last general election that took place in 2020. I would note that as of today, we're less than 90 days till the general election and we're less than 30 days until early voting starts in some states. But the fundraising, our advanced bookings, everything are ahead of our plan and ahead of our expectations.

Speaker 2

And so we're not really going to adjust a forecast on political, because the money won't really start to fall in intensity or increase in intensity fall to our books and bottom line until post Labor Day. But as I'm often fond of saying, if I were a betting man, I'd probably bet the over. As it relates to advertising, if I look at the quarter on core advertising, our lagging categories, if you will, were furniture, automotive and entertainment, home repair and banks, packaged goods, real estate, even gaming sports betting were all up for the quarter. I think there's no question that the slowdown in the economy is leading to the shift in discretionary spending and perhaps a slowdown in discretionary spending. So, we are encouraged that our Q3 projections or Q3 pacing is better than where we finished in Q2.

Speaker 2

But as Mike said in his comments, we do expect as we get closer to November 5th that we'll see some crowd out, as general purpose advertisers compete with political advertising for the same inventory. And so, we budgeted and planned for that. But again, our pacing is for the Q3 on core is better than it was in the Q2. And obviously, national is more volatile and therefore was pacing weaker than local, which is more sticky and more relationship driven. Direct response was down again, I think dealing with discretionary purchasing ability of the consumer.

Speaker 2

So, all in, it's about as planned. And we were happy to see that our digital advertising revenue, both from direct accounts and from national accounts and our digital services revenue were all up in Q2 and are pacing substantially ahead, double digits ahead of prior year in Q3. So I think in a very general way that's hopefully the answer to your question.

Speaker 5

Okay. Yes, super helpful. Thanks guys.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Dan Kurnos with Benchmark.

Speaker 3

Maybe just quickly on subs, appreciate the color in the quarter. Just any updated thoughts on trajectory or trends on the retrans side and certainly given your guys' unique situation? And then maybe, Mike, I guess, just given everything we've heard from the upfronts and the progress you guys have made on CW ratings and clearly the NewsNation evolution and Perry II obviously, just how we should think about sort of the improvements to CPMs, to engagement, just anything you can give us on color there going forward would be helpful understanding the macro backdrop? Thank you. So I think on subs, as we've said in the past, we're not going to pace materially differently than the rest of the marketplace.

Speaker 3

So I don't really have anything new to add there. On the upfront, all in a positive upfront in terms of growth, particularly given the amount of additional inventory that we're bringing to the market. As you would expect, sports attracted significant interest. And while our take is very small compared to the others, this was only our 2nd year going to market with the consolidated Nexstar portfolio of CW Sports, CW Entertainment, NewsNation, our multicast networks. And I think what the team saw is it's a very differentiated offering from what our competitors are going to market with.

Speaker 3

And in fact, we're one of the only groups out there with a linear growth story to tell. Our assets are attractive to advertisers in the upfront as we continue to grow our much coveted live sports at The CW. We'll be at over 500 hours of sports programming in the coming year, including LIV Golf, ACC Football and Basketball, Pac-twelve Football, NASCAR Xfinity Racing and the WWE NXT Series. So all in, we're able to tell a great story around our growing live and independent news content as well. And I think one of the compelling features that is beginning to resonate with advertisers that might have a difficult time with the left and right oriented news organizations that are much larger than we are is that NewsNation can provide advertisers with a very brand safe environment in a news context.

Speaker 3

Thanks. Appreciate it.

Operator

Sure. Thank you. Our next question is from Jason Bazinet with Citi. Please proceed with your question. I actually just had a follow-up on the sports that you have at the CW.

Operator

Do you feel like that 500 hours or north of 500 hours is about where you want to be? Or do you think the CW will continue to pivot more into sports over time?

Speaker 3

I think it's a good start and we're happy with where we are, but more is always better, right? So we will continue to be in the marketplace and we'll continue to look at opportunities, particularly for rights holders who are attracted to the increased reach that broadcast can offer them. I think when you look at the products that we've attracted, the rights that we've attracted, there's a consistent theme there of rights holders seeking broader reach and the bigger platform that broadcast can offer them. We expect we'll see more of that in the future.

Operator

And then based on the CW, based on the progress you've made reducing losses, you're still on track for that sort of 1Q 'twenty six breakeven. Is that still the plan?

Speaker 3

It is still the plan.

Operator

Okay. Thank you. Thank you. Our next question is from Craig Huber with Huber Research Partners. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 6

Yes. Thank you. Can you talk a little bit about the trend you're seeing out there for national advertising at your TV stations? Was that in the Q2, that trend year over year versus the Q1? What's your sense here for the Q3?

Speaker 4

I mean, on the national side, we're still seeing a higher rate of decline than on the local side. It was slightly better in the Q2 than it was in the Q1. And I don't think our expectations for the Q3 or where we're pacing currently is slightly it's in line with kind of where it was in the 1st and second quarters in terms of rate of decline.

Speaker 6

It's about the same, okay. And then you mentioned pacings, I think, for ad revenue for the current quarter down low single digits. I mean, does that that does not take into account, I assume, much political crowding out as we get deeper into this quarter or does that?

Speaker 4

So it takes into consideration a little bit of crowd out because the Q3 includes September. But the vast majority of the crowd out effect happens in October in the Q4.

Speaker 6

But I guess I'm asking the ad revenue that's going to get booked, formally booked in September, that's not on your books right now. Is there a risk here that it could be worse than just down low single digits as to what's the quarter? Yes, I

Speaker 4

mean, like if political continues to expand, yes, there could be a trade off if we if our expectations for political increase that could have a further impact on core. But based on our current modeling, which includes the crowd out as Barry mentioned, it's down low single digits is what we're pacing out for the Q3.

Operator

Okay. Thank you. Craig, I'll just

Speaker 2

add to that crowd out effect will happen primarily in 7 or 8 states, and we operate across 40 states here. So not every market will receive the same effect from the crowd out. So, but I think Lianne is exactly right. As political goes up, it can crowd out core revenue. The engine inventory is finite and it's fungible.

Speaker 2

So, we would be relatively indifferent there. I think we probably make more revenue if political is crowding out general purpose advertising because political will generally pay up for the privilege of doing so.

Speaker 6

I have 2 more quick questions guys. 1, auto, can you just quantify how much that was down in the quarter and what your outlook is for the Q3?

Speaker 4

Yes. I mean, auto was down mid single digits. We don't project on a

Speaker 2

by category basis, but it is I'll tell

Speaker 4

you from a pacing perspective, category basis, but it is I'll tell you from a pacing perspective, it's down a little bit more in the Q3 so far than what it was in the second.

Speaker 6

Okay. My final question and thanks for your time here. Can you give me a ballpark if you would, what percent of your viewers on your television stations are over the air nowadays?

Speaker 4

So I mean, look, I you can there's a variety of different external resources that tell you about that. It's usually you can it's in the low teens percentage of viewership is consuming content over the year.

Speaker 6

Okay, great. Thanks a lot guys.

Operator

No problem. Thank you. Our next question is from Stephen Cahall with Wells Fargo. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 7

Thank you. So based on what you've seen year to date between the CW improving and the expense management in net distribution and I guess Perry taking the over on political, do you foresee any opportunities to the adjusted EBITDA guidance that you given for the year? Or I guess as well any risks in terms of how you're tracking towards that range? And then you announced the renewal with Paramount. There's been industry discussions about affiliates trying to move fixed reverse compensation to some more flexible structures.

Speaker 7

I know you added some CW affiliates as well, so I'm sure that was a complex renewal. Not asking you to comment on

Speaker 2

that one specifically, but how

Speaker 7

do you kind of see the trends in reverse comp going forward? Is there any increased flexibility? And then finally, Leanne, just sorry if I missed some of these, but would love to get cash interest, CapEx, cash tax kind of rough expectations for the year if that's possible? Thank you.

Speaker 4

Okay. So on the first question and then I'll turn it to Mike for the second question on just the guidance. As we said in the with our Q4 results, we established guidance at that point. We let you guys know that we were not planning on updating that guidance, but we did provide a good long list of disclosure in terms of the things that we took into consideration at the beginning of the year when we established that guidance. So we are not providing any update to that guidance.

Speaker 4

That's our current process. I'll turn it to Mike to talk about REVERSE.

Speaker 3

Yes, sure. On the affiliation renewals, to reiterate what we said, I think the last couple of calls, fixed variable, that is one aspect of a multifaceted negotiation. And what we really focus on is the bottom line. So rather than get into any of those specifics, I will sort of address the bottom line where we continue to see a moderating of the rate of growth of affiliation fees relative to the rate of growth in our distribution revenues. We continue to feel positive about the direction of those negotiations and certainly feel good about those that we've completed.

Speaker 3

The one factor I will say to distinguish the CW from some of the others is the CW is bringing more content and more exclusive content to our affiliates going forward to the extent that our larger networks are doing the opposite, we expect that will be reflected in those negotiations.

Speaker 4

And then on your last question about guidance for cash interest, CapEx and cash taxes. From an interest perspective, I think what we've mentioned to you before is we just basically look at the forward curve for SOFR and then every quarter we'll just update. I mean at our update our model in that regard. Our interest expense I'll just tell you based on the current forecast is expected to be around $440,000,000 for the year. On a CapEx perspective, I think the midpoint of our range that we had provided at the beginning of the year was around $145,000,000 $140,000,000 $145,000,000 And then from a tax perspective, we are a full cash taxpayer, unfortunately.

Speaker 4

So we look at our taxes on a 26.5% rate over the course of the year. I think the way to think about it, just to give you a couple of like sort of cheat codes would be about half of our D and A is tax deductible. You need to add back 25% of the CW losses that are not allocable to us. They're allocable to our partners. And then generally, we have somewhere in the neighborhood of $30,000,000 or so $1,000,000 of additional adjustments that are to the positive on our cash tax.

Speaker 4

From a timing perspective, and we've said this before, we don't really pay very much tax in the Q1. It's really just a few states that have to be paid. We then have 2 tax payments in the Q2 and then we try to have 1 in the 3rd and the 4th that are really kind of evenly distributed that cash tax over that period. So hopefully that's helpful.

Speaker 7

Very helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Jim Goss with Barrington Research. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 8

All right, thanks. In terms of the CW and the increased sports, I assume the additional content is usually welcomed by the non owned affiliates, even though they might be giving up some content or some slots that they might have been able to sell themselves. I'm wondering if you can look at the programming fees you're charging as the main way you're getting paid with these affiliations or if you might also comment on how you split the ad revenues in the especially in these incremental slots where you're adding LIV and PAC-twelve and some of the other things? And also in regard to PAC-twelve, last time I looked, it was reduced to Washington State and Oregon State. Is that are they rebuilding the conference?

Speaker 8

Or are those the 2 teams you're going forward with?

Speaker 3

I'll take that. Let me start with the easiest question, which is your last one. And yes, the PAC-twelve currently is just Washington State and Oregon State. The future of that conference is really up to them. I think there's a lot of options on the table with the movement around college conferences, but I don't have any inside information to offer you on that.

Speaker 3

In terms of CW and our negotiations with our affiliates, Yes, it's fair to say that the incremental sports content is well received by all of them. We've not had any difficulty clearing any additional dayparts as we've added programming to the weekends really for the first time for the last year and a half. So we continue to see a very positive reception to that. In terms of allocation of advertising and affiliation fees, it's obviously the revenue coming into the network is a combination of both, both in terms of our national advertising and in terms of the affiliation fees that we generate. So I think I've answered your question, but if I've missed anything, feel free to follow-up.

Speaker 8

Okay. No, that would be

Speaker 2

I think it's important to note, Jim, that the bulk of the sports additions haven't aired yet. And Xfinity, Pac-twelve, the expanded ACC schedule, WWE Next, that's all coming here in the next 60 days. And we're very excited about the fall of the CW. We've been talking about what's coming now for a year and it's finally about to hit the airwaves. And then obviously, when affiliates are able to see the proof point of the additional audience, I mean, they were more than willing to ante over weekend inventory for live sports and be able to compete in that arena from an advertising perspective, as are we.

Speaker 2

I mean, we had a very good upfront in terms of monetizing this additional inventory, albeit in a tough market, but we're pleased with those results. But again, I think you'll see the impact on our distribution fees as the sports become part of the package that our affiliate stations as well as our O and Os are able to take to market in discussions with distributors. So it's a virtuous circle going in the right direction, but it's forward looking obviously. But we're very excited about finally getting this programming on the air that we've been talking about for the better part of the year.

Speaker 8

Okay, great. Last one, I'm wondering about any potential symbiotic interplay between NewsNation and The CW. Will you create some programming on CW from NewsNation, especially in the political sense that might draw attention to NewsNation and might also benefit CW? And also, can you discuss any ultimate economic value objectives you might have with NewsNation as it continues to gain steam?

Speaker 2

Sure. I mean, I think that marquee political programming or news programming Republican presidential debate we did last fall. We made that available to the CW network and it was cleared on a high percent of the affiliate base, much to my surprise, but they were hungry for and eager to have live event programming like that on the air. Our Sunday show, The Hill, which Chris Steyrwalt host on Sunday morning, we make available to The CW affiliate base. And it is cleared on a same day basis on affiliates representing 82% of the country, I think, give or take 1%.

Speaker 2

So I think as we look toward election coverage, both on primary Super Tuesday, looking backward and then the general election. We will make selected programming and live coverage using our resources available to the CW affiliate body, but to the network at large. And we expect similar uptake to what we've seen in the past. I don't think you'll see us launch a daily national newscast on The CW. I look at that through the lens of our owned and operated stations and that do very well in local news.

Speaker 2

And I think it would be a real tough putt for them to give up a half hour or an hour of time of local news to put on a national newscast and have less inventory in it to sell than the local newscast that they have 100% of. So, we said when we took over the operation and majority ownership of the network, this will be a network owned by broadcasters for broadcasters. And so, when we look at it through ultimately our station and our affiliate stations lens, I'm not sure the national newscast would make any sense on a regular day to day basis. Mike, if you have anything to add to that?

Speaker 3

No, I think that's right. I think you can look at another network out there that has a very successful cable news network and a broadcast network and they've not married those 2 in that fashion for the very reasons that you just articulated Perry. I will add the only other benefit to the CW affiliate coming from NewsNation is in the case in the scenario of breaking news, right, where we have had the opportunity as we did with some of the recent weekend breaking news to cover that live and offer our CW affiliated stations the opportunity to show live news when viewers might be going elsewhere to look at those breaking events.

Speaker 8

Okay, very helpful to hear your mindset on this. Thanks very much.

Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I'd like to hand the call back to Perry Sook, CEO for any closing comments.

Speaker 2

Thank you very much, operator. Our strong financial framework combined with the cash generative nature of our business continues to enable Nexstar to deliver strong levels of free cash flow, while maintaining our strong balance sheet and continued low leverage. Looking ahead, we will continue to execute against our long term strategies, taking the necessary actions and making the required investments to shape the future of Nexstar, while delivering long term growth and outsized returns to our shareholders. Thanks everyone for joining us today and we look forward to speaking with you again in November right after the election when we report on our Q3 results.

Operator

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time.

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Earnings Conference Call
Nexstar Media Group Q2 2024
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