Ardagh Metal Packaging Q3 2025 Earnings Report

Ardagh Metal Packaging EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $0.08
• Consensus EPS: $0.07
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$0.01
• One Year Ago EPS: $0.08

Ardagh Metal Packaging Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $1.43 billion
• Expected Revenue: $1.39 billion
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$38.13 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: +8.80%

Ardagh Metal Packaging Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q3 2025
• Date: 10/23/2025
• Time: Before Market Opens
• Conference Call Date: Thursday, October 23, 2025
• Conference Call Time: 10:00AM ET

Ardagh Metal Packaging (NYSE:AMBP) (NYSE: AMBP) is a global supplier of metal packaging solutions, specializing in the production of steel and aluminum beverage cans, food cans and ends. As a segment of the Ardagh Group, the company supports a broad range of food and beverage customers, including soft drink and craft beer producers, as well as food manufacturers requiring durable, recyclable packaging. Its product portfolio encompasses two‐piece and three‐piece cans, a variety of can ends and closures, and value‐added services such as custom lithography and decorating.

The company operates a network of manufacturing plants across North America and Europe, serving both regional and multinational clients. In North America, Ardagh Metal Packaging maintains multiple facilities equipped with the latest draught and high‐speed canmaking technology, enabling fast turnaround and flexible production runs. In Europe, its operations extend from the United Kingdom and Ireland to continental markets including France, Germany and Italy. This footprint allows the company to respond quickly to shifts in consumer demand, support just‐in‐time inventory models and supply a consistent, high‐quality product worldwide.

Ardagh Metal Packaging traces its roots to the broader Ardagh Group, which was founded in Ireland in 1932 and has grown through strategic acquisitions and organic investment in advanced manufacturing. Over the past decade, the metal packaging division has expanded its capacity to meet rising demand for sustainable, infinitely recyclable metal packaging. The company has invested in lightweighting technologies and enhanced recycling initiatives to reduce material use and environmental footprint while maintaining package integrity.

Headquartered in Luxemburg, Ardagh Metal Packaging adheres to rigorous quality and safety standards and collaborates closely with customers on package design, brand differentiation and supply‐chain optimization. Its global management team combines deep industry expertise with a commitment to innovation, aiming to deliver packaging solutions that align with evolving consumer trends and sustainability goals.

Ardagh Metal Packaging Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Positive Sentiment: The company reported Q3 adjusted EBITDA up 6% year‑over‑year, at the upper end of guidance, and upgraded full‑year adjusted EBITDA guidance to $720–$735 million.
• Negative Sentiment: Europe saw only modest shipment growth and continued beer weakness (beer >40% of the European portfolio) plus input‑cost recovery headwinds that reduced constant‑currency adjusted EBITDA, so full‑year Europe shipments are now expected to be low single‑digit growth.
• Neutral Sentiment: North America volume trends remain solid (Q3 shipments +1%, YTD +5%) and AMP maintains mid‑single‑digit full‑year North America shipment guidance, but flagged temporary operational and metal‑supply issues that likely cost ~1–2 points of growth in Q3 and create some 2026 uncertainty.
• Positive Sentiment: Financial position strengthened with >$600 million liquidity, net leverage down to 5.2x (targeting ~5x at year‑end), reiterated adjusted free cash flow of at least $150 million for 2025, and a quarterly ordinary dividend of $0.10 per share.

Presentation

[Operator]

Welcome to the Ardagh Metal Packaging SA quarterly results conference call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Mr. Stephen Lyons. Please go ahead.

[Stephen Lyons, IR Director at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

Thank you, operator, and welcome, everybody. Thank you for joining today for Ardagh Metal Packaging's third quarter 2025 earnings call, which follows the earlier publication of AMP's earnings release for the third quarter. I am joined today by Oliver Graham, AMP's Chief Executive Officer, and Stefan Schellinger, AMP's Chief Financial Officer. Before moving to your questions, we will first provide some introductory remarks around AMP's performance and outlook. AMP's earnings release and related materials for the third quarter can be found on AMP's website at ir.ardaghmetalpackaging.com. Remarks today will include certain forward-looking statements and include use of non-IFRS financial measures. Actual results could vary materially from such statements. Please review the details of AMP's forward-looking statements disclaimer and reconciliation of non-IFRS financial measures to IFRS financial measures in AMP's earnings release. I will now turn the call over to Oliver Graham.

[Oliver Graham, CEO at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

Thanks, Stephen. We delivered a strong performance in the third quarter with adjusted EBITDA growth of 6% versus the prior year quarter or 3% on a constant currency basis. Our adjusted EBITDA result of $208 million was towards the upper end of our guidance, with both segments performing broadly in line with our expectations. Adjusted EBITDA growth in the quarter was supported by shipments growth in Europe and North America, lower operational and overhead costs, as well as favorable category mix. Although global volumes were below our expectations in the quarter, on a year-to-date basis, they are up over 3% versus the prior year. The beverage can continues to benefit from innovation and share gains in our customers' packaging mix, underpinning our growth expectations.

[Oliver Graham, CEO at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

We continue to progress our sustainability agenda, and our recently published sustainability report highlights strong progress towards our targets in 2024, including a 10% annual reduction in Scope 1 and 2 emissions and a 14% reduction in Scope 3 emissions, with Scope 3 emissions now 25% below the 2020 baseline. We anticipate further good progress in 2025 and beyond. Turning to AMP's Q3 results by segment. In Europe, third quarter revenue increased by 9% to $625 million, or by 3% on a constant currency basis compared with the same period in 2024, principally due to volume growth. Shipments grew by 2% for the quarter, driven by growth in energy drinks and faster growing categories such as ciders, ready-to-drink teas and coffees, wines, and water. This growth offset continued weakness in the beer category, which represents over 40% of our European portfolio.

[Oliver Graham, CEO at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

Third quarter adjusted EBITDA in Europe increased by 4% to $82 million, in line with expectation. On a constant currency basis, adjusted EBITDA reduced by 4% due to input cost recovery headwinds, partly offset by the contribution from higher volumes and favorable category mix. Given the continued softness in the beer category, we now expect full-year shipment growth for Europe of low single-digit percentage for full-year 2025. As we look into 2026, we continue to expect the market to grow around 3%-4% and for our volumes to broadly match that growth. In the Americas, revenue in the third quarter increased by 8% to $803 million, which mainly reflected the pass-through of higher input costs to customers, including the impact of the higher Midwest premium in North America.

[Oliver Graham, CEO at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

Americas adjusted EBITDA for the quarter increased by 8% to $126 million, in line with expectations due to lower operational and overhead costs and favorable category mix, partly offset by the impact of lower volumes in Brazil. In North America, shipments increased by 1% for the quarter, broadly in line with the industry, following stronger than expected growth during the first half of the year. Year-to-date, North America shipments are up by 5% ahead of the overall industry. The slow rate of growth during the quarter reflects some moderation in industry growth rates, as well as temporary operational challenges. These included a modest impact related to aluminum can sheet supply, as well as some temporary plant and network issues. We continue to monitor the metal supply situation as we progress through Q4.

[Oliver Graham, CEO at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

If the supply chain performs as currently projected, we anticipate only a modest impact to our expected Q4 North America performance. Customer demand for non-alcoholic beverages in cans in North America remains strong, and as such, we maintain our guidance for full-year North America shipments of a mid-single-digit percentage growth. Looking into 2026, we expect industry growth of a low single-digit percentage. We expect a somewhat softer outlook for AMP, following some volume resets, largely related to specific footprint situations. We anticipate 2026 being a transition year before good growth in 2027, on the back of some contracted additional filling locations and ongoing market growth. In Brazil, third quarter beverage can shipments decreased by 17%, largely due to a weak industry backdrop across all categories, with industry beer can volumes falling by around 14% due to adverse weather and weak household consumption.

[Oliver Graham, CEO at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

Our weaker performance in Q3 follows a strong performance in the first half of the year. Year-to-date, Brazil shipments are down 1% versus a mid-single-digit percentage decline for the rest of the industry. We expect an improved volume trend for Q4 compared to Q3, and hence full-year shipments for Brazil to be broadly in line with the prior year. Looking into 2026, we expect the Brazilian industry to return to growth and for our volumes to broadly track the industry. I'll hand over now to Stefan to talk you through our financial position for the quarter, before finishing with some concluding remarks.

[Stefan Schellinger, CFO at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

Thanks, Ollie, and good morning, good afternoon, everyone. We ended the quarter with a robust liquidity position of over $600 million. The net leverage of 5.2x net debt over the last 12 months adjusted EBITDA represents a decline of 0.4x of leverage versus Q2 2024, reflecting adjusted EBITDA growth. It remains our expectation that the leverage ratio at year-end will be around 5x. We reiterate our expectation for adjusted free cash flow for 2025 of at least $150 million. In terms of the various components of free cash flow, our expectations are mostly in line with what we said in July. We expect maintenance CapEx of around $135 million, lease principal repayments of just over $100 million, cash interest of just over $200 million, and a small outflow in working capital.

[Stefan Schellinger, CFO at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

We now expect cash tax to be in the range of $35 million-$40 million, gross CapEx to be around $65 million, and a small cash exceptional outflow of approximately $15 million. Today, we have announced our quarterly ordinary dividend of $0.10 per share. With that, I'll hand it back to Ollie.

[Oliver Graham, CEO at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

Thanks, Stefan. Before moving to take your questions, just to recap on AMP's performance and key messages. Firstly, adjusted EBITDA growth in the third quarter of 6% was at the upper end of our guidance range, with both segments performing in line with expectations. Adjusted EBITDA growth was supported by shipments growth in both Europe and North America, by lower operational and overhead costs, and a favorable category mix. The beverage can continues to outperform other substrates in our customers' packaging mix, supporting our growth. Reflecting our resilient performance, we are upgrading our full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance. Full-year adjusted EBITDA is now expected to be in a range of $720 million-$735 million, based on current FX rates. We expect full-year shipments growth for AMP to be approximately 3%. Having made these opening remarks, we'll now proceed to take any questions that you may have.

[Operator]

Thank you. If you are dialed in via the telephone and would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speaker phone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. Again, press star one to ask a question. We'll take our first question from George Staphos with Bank of America.

[George Staphos, Managing Director at Bank of America]

Hi, everyone. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Thanks for the details. Congrats on the progress. I guess the first question I had, I only have a couple. Can you talk, Ollie and Stefan, about what, if any, effects you're seeing from demand elasticity and higher realized or potentially realized aluminum pricing from can sheet within cans, both in North America and Brazil, and then I guess broadly? In that regard, with Brazil, the down, I think you said 17% on weak industry trends. Obviously, others have also put up some weaker industry volumes so far during the reporting period in Brazil. Do you sense any of that is a pack shift mix back to other substrates because of, in fact, higher aluminum prices? How would you have us think about that?

[George Staphos, Managing Director at Bank of America]

Along with the elasticity question, just can you talk a bit more about what's baked into your guidance for fourth quarter and realizing you're not guiding on 2026, just the outlook for 2026 on can sheet? You know, what operational challenges do you, are you, how are you going to, we know what issues have hit the supply chain. How are you managing against that and what's baked into it, and if you can comment? Thank you.

[Oliver Graham, CEO at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

Yeah. Hi, George. On the first question, I don't think we're seeing a huge amount on demand elasticity at this point. Obviously, everybody, well, more or less everybody will have gone into 2025 pretty hedged. A lot of the tariff impact won't have come through in North America at this point. Probably a similar story for Brazil in some respects. I don't think we're seeing it hugely impacting sales at this point. I think that there's a bit more risk for 2026 for exactly the same reason that hedges will be rolling. You would expect to see some higher aluminum costs come into the supply chain. It will be down to whether our customers pass those through or retailers pass those through and then how the consumer reacts and the overall consumer environment.

[Oliver Graham, CEO at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

I think we're probably guiding North America for next year at a market level at sort of 1%-2%. That's partly reflecting some of that caution about potential inflation in the can. In Brazil, I don't think we've seen a big reversion back into two-way glass. I think it stayed pretty much steady, the shares of cans. It just seems to be a general weakness on the volume level, on the liquid level. We see that in the reporting of the big brewers. It was a pretty poor winter, a very cold winter. That's been commented on. There is a weak consumer backdrop in the category, particularly in beer. Actually, soft drinks wasn't great either. I think Brazil is just having a tough year. Again, as we look into 2026, we'd assume that it reverts more back to its long-term trends. Maybe, you know, low to mid-singles.

[Oliver Graham, CEO at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

As we said in the remarks, would be in line with that. In terms of Q4, I think the can sheet, we're cautiously optimistic at this point. There's been a lot of disruption in the supply chain. We were having it actually before the fire at that key facility. There was already some disruption in the supply chain, which we mentioned. The fire didn't help. At this point, we think we're managing through. It gets easier as the quarter progresses because alternative sources of supply can come into the mix. We're supplied from various domestic and international sources. We also have one of the two new mills in North America now coming online, which is very helpful to the situation. At the minute, you know, we're optimistic that we can get through that, as we said in the remarks, with relatively limited impact on North America performance.

[Oliver Graham, CEO at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

We probably did lose 1%-2% points of growth in Q3 across all of the operational issues. That included a couple of plants that didn't perform at the level we'd expected. Also, the network was under some stress with some seismic issues.

[George Staphos, Managing Director at Bank of America]

Very good. I'll turn it over. Thank you.

[Oliver Graham, CEO at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

Thanks, George.

[Operator]

We'll take our next question from Matt Roberts with Raymond James.

[Matt Roberts, Analyst of Equity Research at Raymond James]

Hi, Ollie, Stefan, and Stephen. Good afternoon. First, on that 2026 growth in North America, it seems like there's a lot of innovation, potential shelf space, distribution opportunities within your energy portfolio. What's behind that transition year? Given your exposures, why in line with the market in North America?

[Oliver Graham, CEO at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

Great question. I think we've talked about it on calls. It's been on other calls. There's a lot of contract reset activity in North America over the last couple of years. We're seeing that increasingly settle down now, and we're broadly very comfortable with the outcomes. We see ourselves increasingly strongly contracted through 2028 and beyond. We do see some softness, as we said, in 2026, particularly on the 12-ounce side of the portfolio due to some resets within those situations. As I said in the remarks, it's really about some specific footprint situations. What I mean by that is, for example, we had a customer with a very long freight lane out of the COVID years. We were at one point thinking of building capacity. We decided not to with the overall volume situation. Now there is a plant much closer than our plant, and that naturally reverts.

[Oliver Graham, CEO at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

Another situation example is that one of our competition built a plant during this period of expansion, and that plant is now closer to a customer filling location than our plant. We're seeing some relatively natural resets in the market. As you know, beverage cans are very susceptible to freight, and footprint is critical. I think we're very comfortable with where we're coming out now. We do see 2026 as a softer year in North America where we will be behind the market. If we take 2027, we see good growth. We see we're gaining a couple of extra filling locations, and we see the market growing again. If you look at the innovation that's going into the can, you look at the way energy has performed this year, that's a big part of our portfolio. We actually don't know where that's going to be.

[Oliver Graham, CEO at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

It certainly surprises on the upside this year. I think it's got good potential next year, probably not to the same level, but it's a big part of our portfolio. We can be optimistic about those kind of categories as well.

[Matt Roberts, Analyst of Equity Research at Raymond James]

Right. Thank you for all the additional color there, Ollie. Speaking of capacity and footprint, last quarter, you noted potential for adds in Europe. I believe it was Southern Europe. Recognizing these projects are long-term in nature, has the volume outlook changed either the timing in regard to any potential projects, or are you still expecting Europe to be pretty tight and needing additional lines in the future? Any early indications there or anything about CapEx in 2026? Thank you for taking the questions.

[Oliver Graham, CEO at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

No, pleasure. No, we don't see any change to timing. I think that the Europe market is pretty tight. We're particularly tight on certain sizes, and we'll address that. That definitely cost us some growth this year. Again, it's sort of specialty sizes in the season. We weren't completely able to follow, and that cost us a bit of growth Q2 and probably persisted into Q3. We'll do some projects around that in the off-season. We're running pretty tight. We've got some room for growth with continued improvement in the existing footprint. We don't see any change to the timing of needing new capacity. Europe's a long-term growth market. It's been talked about on other calls. We're talking 3%-4%. Some years it's been more, some years a bit less, but it's been very consistent as per capita can penetration grows. We don't see anything.

[Oliver Graham, CEO at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

It's obviously had a bit of a weak summer, particularly in the beer category, but we're very optimistic about that market. As we said in the remarks, we see ourselves growing in line with the market in 2026.

[Matt Roberts, Analyst of Equity Research at Raymond James]

Thank you again, Ollie.

[Oliver Graham, CEO at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

Pleasure.

[Operator]

We'll go next to Stefan Diaz with Morgan Stanley.

[Stefan Diaz, VP of Equity Research at Morgan Stanley]

Hi, Ollie. Hi, Stefan. Thanks for taking my questions. Maybe just sticking with Europe. Obviously, the can continues to outperform underlying liquids volumes in the region. In your opinion, how much more runway does the can have for outperformance? For example, if overall liquid demand sort of remains kind of flat to down in Europe, can the can still grow in 2026, 2027, and beyond?

[Oliver Graham, CEO at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

Yeah, definitely. I think that if you look at the things that drive the growth, there's still significant underpenetration of cans relative to other geographies. Some of that is legacy with the German deposit scheme that took all cans out of the German markets. You still see German can growth at very high levels, obviously a big market. You have growth out of two-way and plastic in different parts of the region, Eastern Europe. We have the ongoing sustainability advantages of the can relative to other substrates. Obviously, you have in Europe, particularly the energy cost situation that's impacting glass. We see a lot of runway for growth for the can in Europe. I think that view is shared right across the industry and is backed up every quarter.

[Oliver Graham, CEO at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

If we look at our performance in the quarter, when we look at our markets that we were in, we were a touch behind, but only a touch behind. I think there are always geographic and category mix impacts in individual company growth rates. Overall, we're happy with our performance, and we definitely see a lot of runway for can growth in Europe in the next few years. Yeah.

[Stefan Diaz, VP of Equity Research at Morgan Stanley]

Great. That's helpful. If you could just touch on quarter-to-date trends by geography, and maybe particularly if you could go into detail on Brazil, just given how weak this past quarter was on an industry level and just now how we're in the busy season down there. If I could just slip in one more, I might have missed this in the release, but can you quantify the IFRS 15 contract timing benefit? Is this potentially a headwind in 4Q? Thank you.

[Oliver Graham, CEO at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

Sure. I think, quarter-to-date, trends look good, very much in line with guidance across all geographies. I think Brazil clearly significantly better where we're guiding. If we're at the top end of the guidance, then we expect Brazil to be at flat growth year on year, which obviously is therefore growth in Q4. We already see in October significantly better performance than Q3. We do see improvement. I think it's still a bit on the weak side, and we're still maintaining a cautious stance in our guide, but it's definitely better than Q3. I think that Europe and North America would just say, yeah, absolutely in line with where we expect it. It seems that there's a reasonable degree of forecastability in our markets right now. I think the specific question on IFRS 15 is just a couple of million dollars, right? Maybe it's Stefan.

[Oliver Graham, CEO at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

I don't know that we anticipate anything particular in Q4, but I'll hand that to you.

[Stefan Schellinger, CFO at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

No, I don't think we expect a major headwind in Q4 from IFRS. It's around a couple of million dollars in the Americas, and then also a few more in the European segment. Net-net, we don't expect a major headwind from that.

[Stefan Diaz, VP of Equity Research at Morgan Stanley]

Thank you so much.

[Oliver Graham, CEO at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

Thanks, Stefan.

[Operator]

We'll go next to Josh Spector with UBS.

[Josh Spector, Executive Director of Chemicals Equity Research at UBS]

Yeah. Hey, good morning. I just had two questions, more on the cost side. Within your comments, you talked about less input cost recovery in Europe. I assume that's non-metals related, but can you talk about kind of what that is and if that is something that can be recovered? With North America, with some of the temporary network issues you've called out, I don't know if you can size that at all. Is that something that's resolved, or is this kind of just an effect of a tighter market maybe leading to inefficiencies that persist? Thanks.

[Oliver Graham, CEO at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

Sure. Taking the North American one first, I think that those issues are resolved as we go into Q4. I think that they were a consequence of our strong growth in the first half, particularly on certain sizes. We ended up with the network. We were basically pushing the shortage around different sizes across the summer, and it landed on 12 ounce in Q3. I think we mentioned in the remark, or I mentioned in one of my earlier replies, that we probably lost 1%-2% points of growth in North America in Q3, which was everything, including metal supply issues and some of our network and plant issues. We see those as fully resolved going into Q4. The issue we're really very focused on is the metal supply. As I say, cautiously optimistic at this point. The input costs, we talked about it earlier in the year.

[Oliver Graham, CEO at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

Nothing's changed here. This is European aluminum prices. It's really a legacy of the Ukraine war and the energy spike. We managed to hold that off for several years. In the end, there is energy in aluminum, and those prices came through. I think there has been commentary, certainly at least in one of our peers, on similar lines. Not surprisingly, eventually, that energy shock translated through into some input cost price rises. That impact came, particularly for us this year. It's different for different players depending on their supply mix. Nothing new there, exactly what we talked about earlier in the year.

[Josh Spector, Executive Director of Chemicals Equity Research at UBS]

Okay. Thank you. I'll leave it there.

[Oliver Graham, CEO at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

Thanks.

[Operator]

We'll go next to Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital.

[Arun Viswanathan, Senior Equity Analyst at RBC Capital]

Great. Thanks. I just wanted to get your thoughts on EBITDA and, I guess, growth as you look into 2026. It looks like you're kind of on a $725 million or so run rate on an annualized basis. If you think about maybe low single-digit growth, as you discussed, for 2026, it seems like you are executing relatively well. Does that translate to, say, maybe mid-single-digit growth on the EBITDA line? Is there any further leverage as you de-lever? How should you think about that progressing forward as you look at it?

[Oliver Graham, CEO at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

Yeah. Sure. Obviously, we don't guide 2026 until our Q4s, and there's good reason for that. We're still rolling up the budget and all the detail. Also, there's still, at this time of year, quite a bit of volume still under discussion or moving around. We won't be guiding specifically. If I just talk at the highest level, I didn't say we were growing low single digits next year. I think what I said was, Europe, we see growing 3%-4%, and I was broadly in line. I said I think Brazil will grow low to mid, I was broadly in line. I said I think North America will grow 1%-2% and will be softer than the market. We don't yet have a global number. I think we definitely see earnings growth in 2026 over 2025.

[Oliver Graham, CEO at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

Some of those growth positions, particularly Europe-Brazil, we also see good operational cost savings. We've got a lot of opportunity in plants, in freight, in lightweighting, the usual places where can makers make operational cost savings. Input costs, we're hopeful for 2026 as well at this point. Obviously, we'll be keeping a tight eye, as we always do, on SG&A mix. We'd hope to be a tailwind 2026. We see a number of areas where we see earnings growth in 2026, and we definitely see earnings growth over 2025. We won't guide specifically on that until February.

[Arun Viswanathan, Senior Equity Analyst at RBC Capital]

Great. Thanks for that. Maybe we can just discuss Europe briefly. In North America, we obviously saw nice proliferation of new categories in non-alcoholic beverages. Could you just discuss maybe where we are on that trajectory within Europe? Is there maybe a tailwind that's coming, or are we obviously already seeing it? Would you expect that to drive your results a little bit higher, or would you be still maybe below the market because of the beer exposure? Thanks.

[Oliver Graham, CEO at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

Yeah. I mean, we saw a bit of that in Q3, as I mentioned. If you look where our Q3 growth came from, it came particularly out of the energy category, you know, a bit like North America. It came out of some of these faster growing categories like ready-to-drink teas, coffees, wines, waters. We're strong in all those categories. We definitely saw that. I think the other piece with Europe, I think we also see general soft drinks in growth with substitution of plastic and also some two-way systems being substituted still. It's definitely not reliant on those more innovative categories to get growth in Europe. You can get growth fully in the core if you like. I think what we're saying for 2026 is absolutely that this looks like a poor year for beer. There's no particular reason to believe that continues.

[Oliver Graham, CEO at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

Assuming beer stabilizes more to normal growth rates, then we'd be in the 3%-4% range. That would be very good growth for all the can makers in Europe.

[Arun Viswanathan, Senior Equity Analyst at RBC Capital]

Thanks for that. If I can just squeeze in one last one, the recapitalization or the new structure, do you see that at all impacting maybe your operations, or does it allow for maybe a different way of thinking about capital allocation, or is it just not really that impactful? Thanks.

[Oliver Graham, CEO at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

I think too early to say anything on it. Obviously, the transaction hasn't closed. It's progressing well from what we understand, but too early to comment on anything, I think, you know, with relation to that.

[Arun Viswanathan, Senior Equity Analyst at RBC Capital]

Thanks.

[Operator]

We'll go next to Mike Roxland with Truist Securities.

[Mike Roxland, Managing Director of Equity Research at Truist Securities]

Yeah. Thank you, Oliver, Stefan, and Stephen for taking my questions, and congrats on all the progress.

[Oliver Graham, CEO at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

Thank you.

[Mike Roxland, Managing Director of Equity Research at Truist Securities]

Ollie, I just wanted to follow up on a comment you made in one of the prior questions about the growth you lost in Europe. You mentioned this also on the last quarterly call, calling out 1%-2% points of growth in Europe because you couldn't pivot into smaller formats. You had good growth in soft drinks and energy. Given your existing beer position, which you noted is 40%+ in Europe, you couldn't make that transition. Can you just tell us how you expect to make that transition? How do you expect to become a little bit more nimble to target those growth categories, to maybe try to minimize beer? Obviously, it didn't sound like you did that as you know, you didn't make much of a shift in 3Q, but can you tell us how you're going to ultimately do that, whether it be 4Q or early 2026?

[Mike Roxland, Managing Director of Equity Research at Truist Securities]

How are you pivoting your mix to capture stronger growth and markets relative to beer in Europe, please? Thank you.

[Oliver Graham, CEO at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

Sure. Yeah. Sure. Look, we're doing a couple of projects in the network, converting lines into those sizes, making lines flexible to allow us to be more agile in the season. We've got a couple of projects on the books for Q4, Q1 that will then have impact and put us in a better position in Q2, Q3 next year. Obviously, any capacity we're building out in the next few years, we'll make sure we're covering the growth sizes in the market. We think we'll be in pretty good shape once we do these next few projects.

[Mike Roxland, Managing Director of Equity Research at Truist Securities]

Got it. When you think about some of the conversions that you're doing or the flexibility that you're adding, when you add new lines, I guess, are you going to build those new lines with this functionality, with this flexibility to be able to switch sizes more easily in case market dynamics change?

[Oliver Graham, CEO at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

Yes, definitely. I mean, it costs a lot less if you do it at the beginning than when you try and retrofit, especially when you try and retrofit much older lines. Absolutely, I think it makes a lot of sense at the minute. The market's quite dynamic, with different products coming to market. We've seen in different summers, different products doing better or worse. It definitely makes sense for us as we build out new capacity to put that flexibility into the lines for sure.

[Mike Roxland, Managing Director of Equity Research at Truist Securities]

Got it. Okay. My last question is on North America. You mentioned the network issue has been resolved, and you remain optimistic on the metal supply issue resolving itself at some point. Especially, you know, is there a risk to that 1%-2% growth that you're targeting for North America next year should these metal supply issues persist into 2026?

[Oliver Graham, CEO at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

Yeah. I guess, Mike, just to be clear, the 1%-2% is the market growth, right? We're saying we expect to be a bit softer than that. I don't see a risk to the industry or to ourselves in terms of metal supply next year. We have one of the two new mills ramping up as we speak. That's extremely helpful to the situation. We expect the operational issues that have been suffered by Novelis to be resolved. They're working very hard to address them. Equally, anybody that's in the market is sourcing other sources of aluminum and successfully doing so. I think with the flexibility we all have in our supply chain with multiple sources of supply, with the fixes they're doing, and with the new mill ramping up, I don't see a risk of industry volumes or AMP volumes from metal supply in 2026.

[Mike Roxland, Managing Director of Equity Research at Truist Securities]

Got it. Thank you very much. Appreciate all the color.

[Oliver Graham, CEO at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

Thanks, Mike.

[Operator]

We'll go next to Anthony Pettinari with Citi.

[Anthony Pettinari, Research Analyst at Citi]

Good morning. Ollie, I think you talked about kind of a bad year in beer in Europe, maybe not expected to repeat next year. I'm just wondering if you can talk a little bit more about the puts and takes there in terms of what you think really drove the weakness in Europe this year, whether it was, you know, consumer weather. In North America, there's been a lot of discussion around secular pressure on beer given lifestyle changes, especially with younger consumers. Does that have a parallel in Europe? I'm just wondering if you can give us your big picture thoughts on beer into next year.

[Oliver Graham, CEO at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

Yeah. Look, I think it's definitely too early to call a secular shift in Europe. I mean, we don't have the depth of other products that we see in the North American market, other alcohol products with similar drinking characteristics that you have in North America. I think we've had a poor year. I don't think weather's really added. I think there's definitely some consumer weakness, which is hitting the category. We only generally work out later what the players did, you know, were they promoting, not promoting. We don't have all the data on that yet. I think my view on this is that it's a big category. It's got some very strong players. I think they won't be happy with this year at all and that they'll be putting in place strategies to reverse that into 2026.

[Oliver Graham, CEO at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

As I say, I think it's definitely too early to call any kind of secular shift in European drinking behavior.

[Anthony Pettinari, Research Analyst at Citi]

Got it. No, that's helpful. Based on kind of an early view, do you expect that the aluminum conversion cost headwinds maybe continue in Europe next year, or are there maybe some savings that we should kind of think about that could help you reach that sort of normalized operating leverage? Just how should we think about that?

[Oliver Graham, CEO at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

I don't think we think there's necessarily savings, but there's no question that the step up that we had this year moderates very significantly. This was our step up. If you look back over 2023, 2024, we really held it back despite the increase in energy costs that had flowed through. This was where we took it. The European market is tight on aluminum. I don't see a huge savings opportunity there until there is more capacity put into the market. It needs that. Fortunately, there are significant import routes that are pretty competitive, so I don't also see a major headwind. We'll be exploiting all those routes. No savings, I think, but a definite moderating of some of the headwinds that we had this year.

[Anthony Pettinari, Research Analyst at Citi]

Okay, that's helpful. I'll turn it over.

[Oliver Graham, CEO at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

Thanks, Anthony.

[Operator]

We'll go next to Gabe Hajde with Wells Fargo Securities.

[Gabe Hajde, Research Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities]

Ollie, Stefan, good morning.

[Oliver Graham, CEO at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

Hi, Gabe.

[Gabe Hajde, Research Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities]

I think earlier this week was the first time that we had heard that there might have been a little bit of movement in terms of contracts and maybe customers, maybe on the private label side. You mentioned next year that there's going to be, again, for your system, some changes and maybe underperform the market a tad. I'm just curious, as you're going through those negotiations with customers, what are their talking points as it relates to, I mean, you already called out proximity to customer filling sites, so that makes sense to me. Just price or service levels, quality, etc., that's informing some of those decisions.

[Oliver Graham, CEO at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

Sure. Yeah. Look, as I said in the remarks, I think that by far the dominant factor that we've seen has been this footprint issue. As I said, we had planned back in 2021, 2022 to put some capacity in the north. We had people who were very tight, so we had a contract that we served out of, off a long freight lane. When we chose not to put the capacity in, obviously, we still had the contract for a few years. When it runs out, it's naturally going back to a closer can plant. As I said, we had the opposite effect where some of the new capacity that's come to North America obviously changes footprint dynamics for customers. They get a plant that's actually nearer to them than they used to have. Our legacy plant is placed.

[Oliver Graham, CEO at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

We also had one situation with a customer that, halfway through the process, they had their own footprint review, which resulted in a filling location that we saw closing down. I think if we look at the overall reason for softness in 2026, the majority is down to footprint. I think the market is competitive, but I think it's normally competitive, maybe after a few years where it was so tight through COVID. I think it's in a normal competitive environment. We don't hear anything particular on the service. We generally get very high ratings on service and very good feedback for relationship management and customer support. I think predominantly, we're talking about footprint-related changes and the fact that there is some capacity in the market for people to make moves.

[Gabe Hajde, Research Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities]

Okay. Two questions on aluminum. Earlier this week, I think it was mentioned that all-in aluminum costs kind of crept up above, I think, all-time highs that we even saw during the pandemic. I think we were talking about maybe $0.015 or so of inflation just from raw material costs. That's maybe closer to $0.03 now if we were to mark to market. I appreciate your customers hedge and probably roll that in, you know, three years in advance. It's not going to all hit at once. I'm just curious, when we've seen this type of inflation through the system, do they typically address that on an annual basis with pricing on the shelf? Relatedly, we observed a decent amount of promotional activity, especially on the carbonated soft drink and energy drink side in the first half of this year, maybe even the first eight, nine months.

[Gabe Hajde, Research Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities]

Should we be mindful or thinking about anything? You mentioned volumes or sell into the channel decelerating a little bit in the second half here versus the first half. Is there any sort of dynamic in the first half of 2026 that we could be mindful of, maybe volumes actually, industry volumes down in the first half and maybe growing again in the second half, just given the tough comps?

[Oliver Graham, CEO at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

Yeah. I think it's a good question. Look, I think you can't say there's no impact from that level of increase of aluminum pricing. I think you have to assume there's some risk of inflation on the shelf and that that has some impact on volumes because the categories are elastic. I think trying to predict exactly what our customers and retailers do with that is a fool's game. I think it depends a lot on where they are. They've taken a lot of price the last few years, and they've probably got some firepower, which I think they deployed this year. I think not because of any, personally, I don't think it's because of any particular sort of tariff-related insights. I think it's more that they have got that firepower in their margin structures, and they can use it to drive volumes.

[Oliver Graham, CEO at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

They are looking to balance cans versus plastic in their portfolios for all sorts of reasons. I think predicting exactly what happens in 2026 is very difficult to do. We're maintaining a 1%-2% stance on North America growth for next year with us softer. You know, and that's probably because we are being a little bit cautious around that issue. Yeah, I think something is flowing through. You can't say it has no impact, but I think that hopefully we see what we're expecting, which is that sort of growth rate.

[Gabe Hajde, Research Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities]

Glass and other substrates are not immune, right? Like everything has embedded energy costs. I'm curious.

[Oliver Graham, CEO at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

No, the last points are really important. Sorry, Gabe, I was just going to build on that, which is that every quarter we see that the can is outgrowing the other substrates. I think you take the sustainability piece, you take the energy cost piece, you take the fundamental cost structure of cans in North America. You look at the recapitalization that we've done as can makers and that our suppliers have done on the can sheet side. I think that the industry is very significantly more efficient than 10 years ago, and that is going to play through into overall cost structures. That's why I'm very bullish about long-term can growth rates in North America. I think there is a little bit of a headwind potentially from the tariff situation in the next 12-18 months.

[Gabe Hajde, Research Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities]

Understood. Last one, and it's just sort of digging into the supply chain a little bit. Obviously, it's been, I don't know, maybe 40 years that we've had new rolling capacity here in North America. That does not address any sort of the ingot cost, Midwest premium cost that's embedded in. This is just more about localizing that can sheet supply, and there's better efficiency, I guess, from a logistics standpoint. We have to wait to see what happens politically if there's any change for cost structure for aluminum. In Europe, we're reading articles about how they're frustrated that they're actually exporting scrap to the U.S. because apparently that's a way to circumvent some of the tariffs. Is that coming up in conversations in terms of cost of aluminum or can sheet over in Europe? Thank you.

[Oliver Graham, CEO at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

Yeah. So look, I think on North America, obviously, those mills are massively helpful to the industry, both in terms of supply, but also long-term cost structure, very efficient. Obviously, they had to get investment-grade returns to be built. I think those sorts of costs are built into the supply chain now, and we don't see major changes. I think they're extremely positive for the industry to have that much domestic supply coming on and stopping a lot of the imports that were needed in North America and generally improving the quality of the industry. They're hugely positive, I think. In Europe, yeah, look, I think the scrap situation isn't helpful as a way to avoid tariffs. Obviously, we were already hearing that the U.S. was very short scrap with issues that have gone on in Mexico and related to China, and that was impacting North American can sheet makers.

[Oliver Graham, CEO at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

These flows will have impacts, but we don't see them particularly changing what we're seeing in Europe at the moment. Nothing particular to report from that, I think.

[Gabe Hajde, Research Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities]

Great. Thank you, guys, and good luck.

[Oliver Graham, CEO at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

Thanks, Gabe.

[Operator]

At this time, there are no further questions. I will now turn the call back to Mr. Oliver Graham for any additional or closing remarks.

[Oliver Graham, CEO at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA]

Thank you. Thanks to everyone on the call. Just summarizing again, adjusted EBITDA in Q3 grew by 6% at the upper end of our guidance, with both segments in line with expectations. Reflecting that resilient performance, we're raising our expectations for full-year adjusted EBITDA. Thanks for joining the call, and we look forward to talking to you again at our Q4 results.

[Operator]

This does conclude today's conference. We thank you for your participation.

Participants

Executives

• Stephen Lyons, IR Director
• Oliver Graham, CEO
• Stefan Schellinger, CFO

Analysts

• Arun Viswanathan, Senior Equity Analyst at RBC Capital
• Mike Roxland, Managing Director of Equity Research at Truist Securities
• Gabe Hajde, Research Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities
• Josh Spector, Executive Director of Chemicals Equity Research at UBS
• Matt Roberts, Analyst of Equity Research at Raymond James
• Stefan Diaz, VP of Equity Research at Morgan Stanley
• Anthony Pettinari, Research Analyst at Citi
• George Staphos, Managing Director at Bank of America