Murphy USA Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
February 6, 2025
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Operator

you for standing by. My name is Janine, and I will be your conference operator for today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Murphy USA Fourth Quarter twenty twenty four Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask I will now turn the call over to Christian Cuoco, Vice President of Investor Relations.

Operator

Sir, please go ahead.

Christian Pikul
Christian Pikul
Vice President of Investor Relations & FP&A at Murphy USA

Hey, thanks, Janine. Good morning, everybody. Thanks for joining us today. With me are Andrew Clyde, Chief Executive Officer Mindy West, Chief Operating Officer Gallagher Jeff, Chief Financial Officer and Donnie Smith, Chief Accounting Officer. After some opening comments from Andrew, Gallagher will provide an overview of the financial results and our 2025 guidance.

Christian Pikul
Christian Pikul
Vice President of Investor Relations & FP&A at Murphy USA

And then following some closing comments from Andrew, we will open the call up to Q and A. Please keep in mind that some of the comments made during this call, including the Q and A portion, will be considered forward looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. As such, no assurances can be given that these events will occur or that the projections will be attained. A variety of factors exist that may cause actual results to differ. For further discussion of risk factors, please see the latest Murphy USA forms 10 ks, 10 q, eight ks and other recent SEC filings.

Christian Pikul
Christian Pikul
Vice President of Investor Relations & FP&A at Murphy USA

Murphy USA takes no duty to publicly update or revise any forward looking statements. During today's call, we may also provide certain performance measures that do not conform to Generally Accepted Accounting Principles or GAAP. We have provided schedules to reconcile these non GAAP measures with the reported results on a GAAP basis as part of our earnings press release, which can be found in the Investors section of our website. With that, I'll turn the call over to Andrew.

Andrew Clyde
Andrew Clyde
President and CEO at Murphy USA

Thank you, Christian. Good morning, everyone. I'm very pleased with Merck USA's performance in both the fourth quarter and the full year 2024. The business delivered just over $1,000,000,000 of EBITDA in 2024, demonstrating the sustainability of the earnings potential of the business. We plan to grow the base of sustainable learnings in the years to come as we accelerate our new store program, remain laser focused on improving store performance across the network and relentlessly challenging ourselves to innovate and better serve our customers.

Andrew Clyde
Andrew Clyde
President and CEO at Murphy USA

Against that backdrop, overall, 2024 was a disappointing year for a number of reasons. The year got off to a slow start as rising prices and severe weather hindered transactions across most of the Moosa network. Continued pressure on food inflation in conjunction with QSR value wars pressured quick check markets. Further, a well supplied product market with low volatility and minimal logistics challenges impacted the PS and W side of our business, leading us to lower than expected all in margins in 2024. And although we finished the year with more new stores in the prior year, we under delivered against our internal schedule targets, which also impacted fuel gallons and merchandise sales due to fewer store months in operation.

Andrew Clyde
Andrew Clyde
President and CEO at Murphy USA

Consequently, those collective misses translated into lower incentive related G and A because we fell short of some of our own performance goals. That being said, there were a lot of bright spots too. The Murphy branded network delivered impressive results growing per store merchandise sales and margin dollars by 3.55.9% respectively for the full year 2024 with great momentum in the fourth quarter across center store categories, which delivered total non nicotine margin growth of 7.2% versus the fourth quarter of twenty twenty three, reflecting the impact of the key initiatives we have spoken to before. Importantly, looking at fuels performance for the full year, while the supplydemand balance and other factors impacting PS and W were less favorable, retail margins were up 50 basis points to $0.281 per gallon, reflecting structural industry pressures on the marginal player. Perhaps more importantly, this improvement in retail margins occurred despite conditions that historically have been less favorable to retail margin capture, reflecting a more compressed price environment and lower volatility within that environment.

Andrew Clyde
Andrew Clyde
President and CEO at Murphy USA

Taken together, the fundamental thesis that Murphy USA remains an advantage and growing player in an industry with a long term track record of demand stability not only remains intact, but looks even more favorable from where we are sitting. The runway remains long for continued margin growth over time, high return organic growth investments are accelerating and our core business performance is supported with value creating initiatives. These persistent and powerful drivers strongly support our balanced capital allocation levers of store growth and share repurchase, which has delivered significant returns to investors since our 2013 spin.

Andrew Clyde
Andrew Clyde
President and CEO at Murphy USA

I'm going to turn it

Andrew Clyde
Andrew Clyde
President and CEO at Murphy USA

over to Gallagher to discuss our 2025 guidance in the context of the quarterly and full year performance.

Andrew Clyde
Andrew Clyde
President and CEO at Murphy USA

Gallagher?

Galagher Jeff
Galagher Jeff
Executive VP & CFO at Murphy USA

Hello, everyone, and thank you, Andrew. Let me start off by reviewing 2024 performance results and highlights in combination with the elements of our 2025 guidance. Starting with new store growth. We completed 32 new to industry stores in 2024, in line with our guided range of 30 to 35 new stores.

Galagher Jeff
Galagher Jeff
Executive VP & CFO at Murphy USA

Since year end, we have opened four additional stores with 17 stores currently under construction, giving us a great head start on our 2025 build program. As we have discussed, we expect to increase new store openings this year, targeting up to 50 new stores in 2025, and our pipeline sets us up well for continued delivery in 2026 and beyond. We also completed 47 raise and rebuild projects last year. While our construction schedule allowed for a higher pace raise and rebuild activity in 2024, we're taking a more measured approach in 2025, planning for no more than 30 projects to ensure we're supporting new store development. Our primary focus remains adding more highly productive 2,800 square foot stores to the network as part of our long term goal of adding around 500 new stores over the next decade.

Galagher Jeff
Galagher Jeff
Executive VP & CFO at Murphy USA

Turning to fuel volume. Average 2024 fuel volumes of 240,600 gallons per store month came in closer to the low end of our guidance of 240,000 to 245,000 gallons. Full year volumes were pushed a bit lower by softness in Q4 volumes, which were down 2.4% on an average per store month basis. While October volumes were flat to prior year, as we mentioned in our third quarter call, a flat to rising price profile in November and December limited our ability to deploy pricing and capture share. Additionally, year end volumes were softer than expected with weather events across the South in late December and the Christmas and New Year's holidays falling on a Wednesday in 2024 versus Friday in the prior year.

Galagher Jeff
Galagher Jeff
Executive VP & CFO at Murphy USA

Going forward, we expect total per store fuel volumes to remain relatively flat with the opportunity for high performing new store gallons to more than offset legacy declines in our older smaller format stores. As such, average per store month fuel volumes are expected to remain within a range of 240,000 to 245,000 gallons. In 2025, we expect to sell just over 5,000,000,000 gallons of fuel in total, up 4.5% from 2024. Keep in mind though, per store fuel volumes only tell part of the story. We're adding more new stores in 2025 as prior build classes ramp up to maturity, coupled with more productive raise and rebuilds from prior years.

Galagher Jeff
Galagher Jeff
Executive VP & CFO at Murphy USA

Our share of market continues to grow. Interestingly, when compared to the 4,000,000,000 total gallons Murphy USA sold in 2014, our first full year as a public company, Murphy USA experienced total volume growth of nearly 1,000,000,000 gallons or 21% through 2024. Quick check accounts for a portion of that, but Murphy only fuel volumes have grown over 500,000,000 gallons in the past decade. That is more than double the 6.5% total volume growth seen in the states we operate according to Federal Highway Administration. So that means we're taking share in a large and growing market and building highly productive assets in the right areas to capture that growth.

Galagher Jeff
Galagher Jeff
Executive VP & CFO at Murphy USA

We remain very excited about the future potential of our business as our strategy and execution puts us in a strong position to compete and win in this growing industry. Moving to merchandise contribution dollars. We generated $834,000,000 in merchandising contribution dollars in 2024, up 3.8% versus 2023 with notable acceleration and improvement in fourth quarter results. Fourth quarter merchandising margin $2.00 $9,000,000 was up $11,000,000 versus the prior year, the largest absolute year over year increase during 2024, driven by strength in both nicotine and non nicotine margin contribution, which grew 6.14.4% respectively. For the full year 2024, merchandising contribution growth was slower than we recently projected due to some trends that are likely to continue into 2025.

Galagher Jeff
Galagher Jeff
Executive VP & CFO at Murphy USA

We expect a challenging customer environment and value menu competition to continue pressuring Quick Check markets and their food led offer. We relaunched QuickJack rewards in the fourth quarter and are seeing strong early results, but expect the QuickJack business to deliver slightly lower year over year contribution dollars. However, our merchandising customer remains strong at Murphy USA, driven by our core inside categories, resulting in 6.7% total contribution dollar growth in 2024. We expect that strength to continue at MurphySource in 2025 and are forecasting around 6% total contribution dollar growth. Taken together, in 2025, we're forecasting a range of $855,000,000 to $875,000,000 or nearly 4% growth at the midpoint, in line with the rate of growth we saw in 2024.

Galagher Jeff
Galagher Jeff
Executive VP & CFO at Murphy USA

Moving to OpEx. In 2024, operating expenses per store month were up 5.2% toward the low end of our guided range of $35,000 to $36,000 Nearly half of this total increase was driven by new and larger stores that opened in 2024. Our operations team continues to drive efficiencies across labor, which was up only 3.9% per store. Our labor expense was driven by larger format stores, targeted wage investments and rising minimum wage requirements in several states. Looking to 2025, nearly half of our projected per store OpEx increase is again a direct outcome of our decision to build larger format stores, which are more costly to run than the network average, but most importantly, they also contribute more merchandise dollars.

Galagher Jeff
Galagher Jeff
Executive VP & CFO at Murphy USA

However, do keep in mind that when these stores are put into service, operating expense is running very close to the target maturity rate, while merchandise dollars take about three years to reach maturity. Thus, in the early years of accelerating these stores, you will see OpEx growing a little bit more than merchandising contribution until the stores reach maturity, at which point the coverage ratio turns positive in our new larger format stores. Given these factors, our 2025 store operating expense guidance range represents a 4% to 6% increase or an average per store metric of $36,500 per month to $37,000 per month. Now moving to corporate costs. SG and A expense was $235,000,000 in 2024, down 2.1% versus 2023 and below our adjusted guidance range of $240,000,000 to $250,000,000 dollars These 2024 results were driven by tightly managing home office expenses, a reduction in professional fees as some major initiative investments wound down and lower incentive based compensation, which Andrew mentioned earlier, a component we would expect to return to normal in 2025.

Galagher Jeff
Galagher Jeff
Executive VP & CFO at Murphy USA

Remember, most of the expenses associated with larger scale transformative projects such as digital transformation and QuickJack rewards were incurred in 2023 and 2024. In 2025, we will continue making technology and capability investments to enhance our performance, while driving additional leverage and efficiency from our teams. As such, we're forecasting a range of $245,000,000 to $255,000,000 in SG and A, ensuring we deliver incremental value to investors as we ramp up our store growth. Finally, to capital spending. Total capital spending in 2024 came in at just over $500,000,000 above our original guided range of $400,000,000 to $450,000,000 but within our revised range of $500,000,000 to $525,000,000 provided on our third quarter call.

Galagher Jeff
Galagher Jeff
Executive VP & CFO at Murphy USA

Importantly, all of this increase is attributable to a purposeful acceleration of new store growth, allowing us to get a head start on 2025 construction activity. Our 2025 program will look similar in terms of total capital allocated for growth resulting in a guided range of $450,000,000 to $500,000,000 Importantly, this capital spend will deliver more new stores and more EBITDA growth in both 2025 and 2026 as in service stores progress along their three year ramp curve. The new store pipeline remains in good shape. We're making steady progress toward achieving a sustainable run rate of around 50 new stores each year, which at maturity should deliver roughly $40,000,000 to $45,000,000 of incremental EBITDA annually. Now before I turn it back to Andrew and as mentioned in the earnings release, we continued our balanced capital allocation strategy and repurchased approximately 240,000 shares in Q4 and 938,000 shares for the full year 2024 for a total of $446,600,000 resulting in a cash and cash equivalents balance of $47,000,000 at the year end.

Galagher Jeff
Galagher Jeff
Executive VP & CFO at Murphy USA

The power and impact of our share repurchase decisions are reflected in our year end share count of around 20,000,000 shares, meaning we have bought back nearly 60% of our shares outstanding since our spin. The exact amount of shares we purchased in any given year will depend on a number of factors, one of the most important of which is the share price. Given our free cash flow generation, we intend to continue executing a balanced capital allocation strategy, which result in meaningful EPS accretion in both the year of repurchase and preserving that benefit in all future years. As we grow net income, the accretion impact will be compounded going forward, underscoring our strong commitment to ongoing shareholder value creation. And with that, I turn it back over to Andrew.

Andrew Clyde
Andrew Clyde
President and CEO at Murphy USA

Thank you, Gallagher. In closing, as is our custom, we will provide a range of fuel margins representative of our view of the industry around which investors can forecast the earnings power of the business subject to their own beliefs and expectations. As we referenced on the third quarter call, the most likely range for all in margins in what we call a normal environment, one with stable supply dynamics and limited price volatility, has moderated in the $0.3 to $0.32 per gallon range the past few years. As a reminder, the $0.34 we saw in 2022 resulted from a steeply falling price environment from a high absolute price level approaching almost $5 a gallon, coupled with benefits from a tighter supply market. And that's a concurrence of events we might expect only once in every six to eight years.

Andrew Clyde
Andrew Clyde
President and CEO at Murphy USA

In 2024, we saw neither of those conditions. And as such, we would expect margins to remain in a tighter $0.3 to $0.32 per gallon range in a normal somewhat benign environment. Within this framework, we do continue to believe challenge in store performance and higher costs for marginal retailers will continue to result in higher equilibrium margins as we experienced in 2024, where we saw retail margins up 50 basis points. This dynamic is highly unlikely to change as the fuel pass through mechanism represents the easiest and most efficient way retailers can pass on their higher overall costs, leading to our strong belief that we would expect to see the structural upward pressure on margins continue over time. So in 2025, using the midpoint of all other guided ranges, we would expect EBITDA of $1,000,000,000 to $1,120,000,000 at an all in margin range of $0.305 and $0.325 per gallon respectively.

Andrew Clyde
Andrew Clyde
President and CEO at Murphy USA

We have stated in prior years that $0.3 of all in margin would generate about 1,000,000,000 in EBITDA. The difference in 2025 is coming primarily from two factors. Headwinds at Quick Check stores and the three year ramp to maturity of our new stores as Gallagher mentioned. A key component to delivering our earnings potential going forward is the portfolio of initiatives currently underway that are making the business better as evidenced by the strong Q4 merch results. I'll close out with some comments on preliminary January performance as well.

Andrew Clyde
Andrew Clyde
President and CEO at Murphy USA

Per store fuel volumes approximated 95% of prior year levels, impacted by three named storms over the past month, Blair, Cora and Enzo, each of which resulted in several hundred store closures and delayed openings across our network. We talked about weather as a factor last year, but that environment, while disruptive, was nothing compared to the downtime impacting our January performance. That being said, retail margins are trending about $0.02 higher than last January, largely offsetting the impact from lower volumes and likely resulting in fuel contribution a little bit shy of our internal plan. As you can imagine, the number of store closures also had an impact on merchandise results, but a preliminary view of the data says the business performed admirably in January with results in close proximity to our internal plan, which is a huge testament to the spirit and tenacity of our store managers and associates who face so many challenges. So I thank you all again for your hard work and continued dedication to our customers.

Andrew Clyde
Andrew Clyde
President and CEO at Murphy USA

As we conclude our prepared remarks, I do think it's noteworthy to point out that we have essentially hit a major milestone, reducing our share count to about 20,000,000 shares. As Gallagher noted, the exact number of shares repurchased is a function of several factors, but the simple math highlights the next 1,000,000 shares represents 5% of the float. Accordingly, our powerful balanced capital allocation approach is well positioned to deliver double digit EPS growth and corresponding TSR well into the future. Let's now turn the call back to the operator and we'll open it up to Q and A.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. Our first question comes from the line of Bobby Griffin from Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Alessandra Jimenez
Alessandra Jimenez
Senior Equity Research Associate - Consumer Hardline/Specialty Retail at Raymond James Financial

Good morning. This is Alessandra Jimenez on for Bobby Griffin. Thank you for taking our questions. First, I just wanted to touch on the non nicotine category. What drove that category to flip positive back positive in the quarter?

Alessandra Jimenez
Alessandra Jimenez
Senior Equity Research Associate - Consumer Hardline/Specialty Retail at Raymond James Financial

Was it driven by a change in performance at the Murphy's brand or Quick Check stores?

Andrew Clyde
Andrew Clyde
President and CEO at Murphy USA

So the Murphy stores performed very well. I mean, we saw double digit growth in a number of our categories, packaged beverage, candy, beer sales, salty snacks were up high single digits. So really, really strong performance there. And look, we attribute a lot of that to the initiatives. We talked last year about the second half backloaded initiatives from digital transformation, and we believe those have really made a difference when we look at our same store sales.

Andrew Clyde
Andrew Clyde
President and CEO at Murphy USA

QC performed also well in Q4, not as well as our expectations are planned, but certainly on the food and beverage side, we saw some strength in Q4 as well as we ended the year.

Alessandra Jimenez
Alessandra Jimenez
Senior Equity Research Associate - Consumer Hardline/Specialty Retail at Raymond James Financial

Okay. That's helpful. And then, the implied non nicotine gross margins declined year over year in 4Q despite better sales. Can you walk us through some of the puts and takes on that category and any of the cost pressures whether that's the QSR promotional pressure etcetera? And what are you assuming from a price and promotional cadence in 2025 outlook?

Andrew Clyde
Andrew Clyde
President and CEO at Murphy USA

Sure. So one of the big gaps between the sales growth rate and the margin growth rate is the impact of how we report lotto and lottery. And so that's going to be the biggest driver there between those. In terms of the cadence, we do not expect to see anything kind of materially different. Certainly, the tobacco firms represent a large component of our promotional spend.

Andrew Clyde
Andrew Clyde
President and CEO at Murphy USA

And so a lot of variance could be a function of their initiatives and what their objectives are as well. But at this stage, we don't see a major change in our promotional cadence. I would say on the food and beverage side at QuickCheck, we do expect to see the QSR price valuers continue throughout 2025 and some of the high impact, six inches subs for $3.99 breakfast bundles, etcetera, that have been, important to sustaining traffic and sales. We do expect those, to continue throughout 2025. I would say at some point broadly for QSRs, not sure how sustainable that is, but the fact that we have a highly attractive fuels business that underpins our earnings potential is something they don't have.

Andrew Clyde
Andrew Clyde
President and CEO at Murphy USA

And according to that, we also have the diversification of our markets.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Jan Royal from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

John Royall
John Royall
Executive Director at JP Morgan

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. So my first question is on the buyback. You've been pretty consistent with keeping that pace at somewhere near that 1,000,000 shares per year, which is the level you've talked about. My question is on your willingness to let balance sheet leverage float up to stick to that commitment and maybe more of a downside case for the business in 2025.

John Royall
John Royall
Executive Director at JP Morgan

Just trying to understand how you think about the buyback versus the balance sheet in an environment where, say, hypothetically, we lose a couple of cents of fuel margin, which I know isn't your base case, but just trying to understand how you think of it.

Andrew Clyde
Andrew Clyde
President and CEO at Murphy USA

Sure. That's a really good question. What I would say is we're committed to the fiftyfifty balanced capital allocation approach. So any leverage that we take on, I would not have you think about it as we're leveraging up to buy back shares or leveraging to maintain a fiftyfifty capital allocation plan. We have levered up from time to time as the earnings power of the business has grown.

Andrew Clyde
Andrew Clyde
President and CEO at Murphy USA

Our leverage right now is well below two times. So that's always something that we can look to do. You rightly note that fuel margin volatility is the single greatest factor in the volatility of the earnings of the business. And that's one of the things we clearly lay out with our board as we establish our plan, our capital allocation framework for not just the coming year, but the next three to five years and what we can do to maintain that commitment. This is a business that is built to win in all cycles, right?

Andrew Clyde
Andrew Clyde
President and CEO at Murphy USA

All the things we focus on are about making our business better. We can win in any environment. And so if we saw ourselves honestly, like we did, this last year, I mean, margins were a penny lower than our expectations because the fuel, environment was a lot longer and looser than our expectations. So honestly, it was down a penny versus our expectation and we didn't miss a beat. So I hope that provides a little color and context behind our commitment there.

John Royall
John Royall
Executive Director at JP Morgan

It does. Thank you, Andrew. And then my second question is on CapEx and perhaps I'm misinterpreting something here and please let me know if I am. But on the third quarter call, you had raised the CapEx guide for $24,000,000 to $500,000,000 to $525,000,000 and then I think you had set a similar level to expect a similar level in 2025. You ended up at the low end of that range in 2024 and actually lower in 2025.

John Royall
John Royall
Executive Director at JP Morgan

So it looks like maybe something more than just some activity moving between the two years. Could you talk about the CapEx coming in lower both this year and next if I'm interpreting it correct?

Galagher Jeff
Galagher Jeff
Executive VP & CFO at Murphy USA

Hey John, this is Gallagher. I'll take that one quickly. And we guided that range. There's a little bit of uncertainty in the opening schedules for our stores. So the $500,000,000 to $525,000,000 was a number assuming we could really deliver our full potential of stores in December.

Galagher Jeff
Galagher Jeff
Executive VP & CFO at Murphy USA

Some of that slipped into 2025. We're going to be relatively flat. We hit around $500,000,000 in 2024. We're planning $500,000,000 in 2025. And the difference you see is a switch from more raze and rebuilds in 2024, shifting to more new store openings and organic growth in 2025.

John Royall
John Royall
Executive Director at JP Morgan

Thank you.

Andrew Clyde
Andrew Clyde
President and CEO at Murphy USA

Thanks John.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Irene Nattel from RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Irene Nattel
Irene Nattel
Managing Director at RBC Capital Markets

Good morning and good morning everyone. Just wondering, what kind of discussions are you having with your vendors at this point around promotional support in 2025, you know, as everyone is trying to is facing the challenge consumer? And also around just underlying inflation rates from the vendors in 2025?

Andrew Clyde
Andrew Clyde
President and CEO at Murphy USA

Yes, that's great. I mean, we won't get into any detail around commercial arrangements, etcetera. I mean the one thing that our vendors value Murphy USA and QuickCheck for is the high volumes per store that we generate. We represent for many of them very, very strong stable baseload volume, just like our fuel businesses. It's really no different.

Andrew Clyde
Andrew Clyde
President and CEO at Murphy USA

And that's really important. You think about the candy category and its strong performance in Q4. I mean, the manufacturers really benefit from that commitment to everyday low price and driving that volume. And so that commitment over time, the credibility we've established positions us well for those type of discussions. As part of our digital transformation initiative, we did have some initiatives around contract management, and we have seen benefits from those as well.

Andrew Clyde
Andrew Clyde
President and CEO at Murphy USA

So most often, the type of discussion we have with the vendor may look different than other partners is what can we do together to drive our mutual businesses forward in a positive way. And for them, given some of the pressures and headwinds they've had, they really value a retailer like us who can drive volume on a sustainable basis, that makes it a win win for both parties. And that's really our philosophy working with them.

Irene Nattel
Irene Nattel
Managing Director at RBC Capital Markets

That's very helpful. Thank you. And just around sort of underlying expectations for price inflation this year?

Andrew Clyde
Andrew Clyde
President and CEO at Murphy USA

It's one of those wildcards. Every day you got to say, I don't know about something and inflation is probably one of those. My sense personally is that we're going to continue to see more elevated inflation. We certainly don't know if all the tariff discussions really translate into, you know, more tariffs and therefore higher costs or if it's a negotiating ploy for something else and they're delayed and they never, come into existence. Certainly, some of the government initiatives that drove higher spending kept labor rates elevated, we may see some of that decline.

Andrew Clyde
Andrew Clyde
President and CEO at Murphy USA

One of my colleagues kind of made the comment the other day that this business is meant to win despite the news cycle and we see a news cycle every single day. And honestly, we just stay focused on what we can do, control what we can really the key message our leadership gives to our team. And, if we see higher inflation, we're going to see pressure on our consumer. We saw a lot of trade down this last year to Murphy. One thing I'll tell you is that in the last quarter, and looking year over year, even our low income consumers spent the exact same amount per month, from our static panel on the loyalty side.

Andrew Clyde
Andrew Clyde
President and CEO at Murphy USA

So we're hoping we're well positioned. If there is continued inflation, certainly hope it goes down for the benefit of our consumers.

Galagher Jeff
Galagher Jeff
Executive VP & CFO at Murphy USA

One quick thing to add to that. And in addition to Andrew's comment about the trading into Murphy, our capabilities around the rewards programs now are very strong. And so as the customer seeks more value both on the Murphy side and now with the QuickJack side, we can target what resonates with them. And so in an inflationary environment, we actually know a lot more about customers than we did a year ago and can offer them the right product at the right price, which we believe will continue to help our business.

Irene Nattel
Irene Nattel
Managing Director at RBC Capital Markets

That's a great answer. Thank you.

Andrew Clyde
Andrew Clyde
President and CEO at Murphy USA

Great. Thanks, Irene.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Cory Tarlow from Jefferies. Please go ahead, sir.

Corey Tarlowe
Corey Tarlowe
SVP - Equity Research at Jefferies Group LLC

Great. Thanks and good morning. Could you talk a little bit about your expectations for your performance of some of the new stores? Would be curious to get your thoughts around maybe the planned rollout and the metrics that you are targeting for these new units.

Andrew Clyde
Andrew Clyde
President and CEO at Murphy USA

Absolutely. So one thing we look at is by build class, how are the new to industry stores performing from a merch sales margin fuel gallon standpoint. The twenty twenty two class NTIs delivered 310,000 gallons per store month last year. The twenty twenty three class 316,000. And so if you think about sort of the steady state, the average, those are really high performing stores, which is why we're so disappointed in not hitting our expectations about getting the new stores up and we own that.

Andrew Clyde
Andrew Clyde
President and CEO at Murphy USA

Same on the merchandise side, the 22 classes ramped up more significantly to over $225,000 in sales per store month. This is just on the Murphy side and the 23 is within 10% of that while it's still ramping up. So we're really pleased with the new store performance. We've got very attractive markets that we're putting those stores into. And as Gallagher noted, we feel very good about the pipeline and continuing to build that up.

Andrew Clyde
Andrew Clyde
President and CEO at Murphy USA

I think one of the challenges for the team now is can we make up in 2026, '20 '20 '7 and 2028 some of the miss that we had in 2024 to be able to get right in line with our 2028 EBITDA goals.

Corey Tarlowe
Corey Tarlowe
SVP - Equity Research at Jefferies Group LLC

Got it. That's very helpful. Just my follow-up would be just on SG and A. Is there anything with SG and A in particular where you think that there's further efficiency opportunity that's worth calling out?

Andrew Clyde
Andrew Clyde
President and CEO at Murphy USA

There is and frankly we built some of that into our year over year plan. We need to continue to invest in technology and other business initiatives to make our business better. But that also means that we've got to retire systems, get the benefits from the efficiencies that are in there as well. And so that's fully built into the expectations in our guidance for this year.

Corey Tarlowe
Corey Tarlowe
SVP - Equity Research at Jefferies Group LLC

Great. Thank you very much.

Andrew Clyde
Andrew Clyde
President and CEO at Murphy USA

Thank you.

Operator

Our last question comes from the line of Anthony Benadio from Wells Fargo.

Anthony Bonadio
Anthony Bonadio
Analyst at Wells Fargo

Hey, good morning guys. Thanks for taking our questions. Just wanted to ask about contribution guidance in a little more detail. Thinking through that new 3% to 5% number, can you just walk us through the build in a little bit more detail? I realize the environment isn't great out there right now, but it seems like at minimum, compares should be easier.

Anthony Bonadio
Anthony Bonadio
Analyst at Wells Fargo

You've got support from NTIs, rates and rebuilds and it seems like some emerging self help. So just understanding how all of those pieces flow through would be helpful.

Andrew Clyde
Andrew Clyde
President and CEO at Murphy USA

Sure. So on the maybe the quick check side, start there. We do expect to see some persistent headwinds there and a little bit of a drag on that. So we'd like to think that these QSR price awards resolved themselves in 2026 and beyond really pick up there and our efforts are preserving traffic and holding volume in those cases. We are seeing solid performance in the first couple of months of QuickCheck Rewards with significant uptick from members there.

Andrew Clyde
Andrew Clyde
President and CEO at Murphy USA

Nicotine is always going to be one of those categories. I don't think I can go a call without highlighting the fact that we still see a significant amount of illicit product being sold in stores, especially small stores in all of our markets. So there may be a little conservative view on that. But we'd like to see the FDA and Justice Department do a better job of cracking down and enforcing on those illicit and illegal products. We've got the benefit of the raise and rebuilds from last year.

Andrew Clyde
Andrew Clyde
President and CEO at Murphy USA

The NTI number, honestly, when you don't hit the store months that you expected in the prior year, you're not as far along in the ramp in the current year to achieve those benefits that you wanted. And some of the merchandise number kind of reflects the delay in pushing out some of those store months within the course of the year. It's not about hitting the number for the year. It's about hitting the store months when you wanted to hit them so that in the next year, there are a ramp point that you expected.

Mindy West
Mindy West
Executive VP & COO at Murphy USA

And I would add to that, Andrew. We're also really intent on improving the store performance of our existing network. You've heard us talk about our store productivity initiative. And we're currently in a proof of concept right now going over after what we believe to be the largest wedge of opportunity, which is fuel dispenser health. Obviously, it's a fuel focused business.

Mindy West
Mindy West
Executive VP & COO at Murphy USA

Us having our pumps in service, flowing fast is important to us because it's important to our customers. So we've organized a lot of resources. We're in market right now piloting 20 stores getting ready to roll out to another 80 with a proof of concept to really try to find what are the opportunities out there, what are the gaps to achieve that both in the stores and the home office and what is the cost benefit to inform a broader rollout. Now it's too early to call out overall value capture potential, but we have identified some really interesting opportunities, especially within maintenance, I'll say, which should not only reduce dispenser downtime, but also reduce cost as well. And in fact, we found one opportunity in particular that could generate over $1,000,000 in cost savings on an annualized basis.

Mindy West
Mindy West
Executive VP & COO at Murphy USA

And we absolutely believe that it's doable at our stores. So trust me when I say in operations, we are putting a lot of resources and effort behind this initiative. And we have a really thorough, bodacious and bold, but yet very practical plan forward. And other store improvement initiatives that are SPE related, but not necessarily led are also underway. Because if nothing else, this initiative has really shown a bright light on areas of opportunities within the stores and has really created a renewed sense of urgency around going after it.

Mindy West
Mindy West
Executive VP & COO at Murphy USA

So a lot more to come there, but we are, really working on this.

Anthony Bonadio
Anthony Bonadio
Analyst at Wells Fargo

Really helpful. Thanks, guys. And then just, maybe switching gears to gallons. It looks like those fell off pretty precipitously in November, December from where you guys are running in October. So maybe just some more thoughts on what drove that.

Anthony Bonadio
Anthony Bonadio
Analyst at Wells Fargo

And then given we're coming off a year where APSM gallons were actually down slightly, and given the softness you're seeing so far in January, just more on what gives you confidence in your ability to drive gallon growth in 2025?

Mindy West
Mindy West
Executive VP & COO at Murphy USA

Yes, I'll take that one as well. Looking at volume, fourth quarter really was a tale of winter storms and holidays following mid week. Also, as Andrew mentioned, that lack of volatility, which just did not allow us to create price separation from our competitors. In fact, speaking of volatility, the number of cost changes greater than $0.05 a gallon in the fourth quarter was less than half the number we saw in the prior year. And instead of that October price fall off and overall volatility that we benefited from in fourth quarter of twenty twenty three, what we got was an unfavorable and really choppy price profile for 2024.

Mindy West
Mindy West
Executive VP & COO at Murphy USA

So for the quarter, fuel volumes were pressured, but still above industry as we were all fighting those multiple headwinds and the strong margin served to offset those volume softness. In January, as we said, started off weak, two really severe winter storms crossing a large portion of our network where at one point we had 500 stores down. And unlike hurricanes where you get the benefit of pre buying and post buying as evacuees leave and then return, in winter storms what you really get is sheltering in place and no one moves at all. But as Andrew said, the margins were trending in January zero point zero '2 dollars above last year. I will say February, little better on margin and volume, margins today above $0.3 a gallon, but winter storms hitting the Northeast, in fact, today resulting in a full day of school closures.

Mindy West
Mindy West
Executive VP & COO at Murphy USA

We can't control the weather, but we can focus on controlling our controllables and we are executing well, I will tell you that. And look, first quarter weakness is not unusual and would rather experience these weather challenges in the first quarter than in the summer. And we have a lot of year left that we're confident in our ability to deliver. We're confident in the ability of our NTIs to come on stream and help us. And with a little market help as well, we're in a really great position to capture volume.

Anthony Bonadio
Anthony Bonadio
Analyst at Wells Fargo

Great. Thanks so much.

Operator

Thank you. That concludes our Q and A session. I will now turn the call back to our CEO, Mr. Andrew Clyde for closing remarks.

Andrew Clyde
Andrew Clyde
President and CEO at Murphy USA

Great. Well, thank you all for tuning in. As we put 2024 behind us, we have a lot of exciting initiatives and things to look forward to in 2025 and look forward to updating you across the year at the conferences and in our NDRs as well. Thank you for tuning in and always appreciate your support.

Executives
    • Christian Pikul
      Christian Pikul
      Vice President of Investor Relations & FP&A
    • Andrew Clyde
      Andrew Clyde
      President and CEO
    • Galagher Jeff
      Galagher Jeff
      Executive VP & CFO
    • Mindy West
      Mindy West
      Executive VP & COO
Analysts
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Key Takeaways

  • Delivered $1 billion of EBITDA in 2024 and achieved a 50 basis-point retail margin improvement to $0.281 per gallon despite benign supply conditions, underscoring the sustainability of earnings.
  • Murphy-branded merchandise sales per store rose 3.5% in 2024 with margin dollars up 5.9%, highlighted by a 7.2% increase in non-nicotine margins in Q4 driven by digital and center-store initiatives.
  • Opened 32 new-to-industry stores in 2024 (within guidance) and plans up to 50 new stores in 2025, supporting a targeted 4.5% rise in total fuel volumes to just over 5 billion gallons.
  • 2024 performance was weighed down by rising pump prices, severe weather, food inflation, QSR value wars and a delay in store openings, which led to lower all-in margins and incentive-driven G&A savings.
  • 2025 guidance includes per-store fuel volumes of 240k–245k gallons, all-in margins of $0.305–0.325 per gallon, EBITDA of $1.0–1.12 billion, OpEx up 4–6%, SG&A of $245–255 million and CapEx of $450–500 million.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Murphy USA Q4 2024
00:00 / 00:00

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