YPF Sociedad Anónima Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
March 7, 2025
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Operator

Good morning and welcome to the YPF Fourth Quarter and Full Year twenty twenty four Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. All participants are in a listen only mode.

Operator

After the speakers' remarks, we will conduct

Operator

a question and answer session. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Margarita Choon, YPF's IR Manager. Please go ahead.

Margarita Chun
Investor Relations Officer at YPF

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. This is Margarita Choon, YPF's IR Manager. Thank you for joining today in our full year and fourth quarter twenty twenty four earnings call. Before we begin, please consider our cautionary statement on Slide two. Our remarks today and answer to the questions may include forward looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to be materially different from the expectations contemplated by these remarks.

Margarita Chun
Investor Relations Officer at YPF

Our financial figures are stated in accordance with IFRS, but during the presentation, we might discuss some non IFRS measures such as adjusted EBITDA. During the presentation, we will go through the main aspects and events that explain the annual and Q4 results, and then we will open the floor for Q and A session. Today's presentation will be conducted by our Chairman and CEO, Mr. Horacio Marin our CFO, Mr. Federico Barreta Venia and our Strategy, New Businesses and Controlling Vice President, Mr.

Margarita Chun
Investor Relations Officer at YPF

Maximiliano Weston. I will now turn the call over to Horacio. Please go ahead.

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

Thank you, Margarita, and good morning to everyone presenting this call. Let me begin by highlighting that 'twenty four was a transformational year of YPF. We have deployed our four by four plan designed to increase the value of the company. In the Apteen segment, we are reshaping our oil production metrics, leaving conventional mature field and targeting to increase our shale oil production share from 50% to a minimum of 80%. As of today, we achieved significant progress in the majority of the total of 49 mature blocks.

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

We signed FPAs for 24 blocks, and we're in the final stage of agreement to transfer and or reverse 18 blocks located in the province of Santa Cruz and Terral Feijo. On the other hand, we are already the largest shale oil production of the country, and we continue expanding the coming years, reallocating and concentrating our investments on Vaca Muerta. In parallel, we are leading the midstream project development of Vemos, a new oil export dedicated pipeline, engaging and consolidating the effort of oil measured producing in Argentina to ramp up production to 180,000 barrels per day in the second half of 'twenty six, jumping to more than 500,000 barrels per day by second half of 'twenty seven. The contraction has already started and YPF's initial capacity will be 120,000 barrels per day, accounting for 27 percentage stake and expecting to reach more than $3,000,000,000 of additional export by the second half of 'twenty seven. In the Downstream segment, despite challenging macro context, we have returned to a 100% free market where we were able to fully normalize local price of fuels and conversion them to international parities.

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

On the other hand, along '24, we have been implementing multiple operational efficiency measures to enhance productivity across all businesses. In the upstream segment, our drilling and completion speed for unconventional wealth of 24 are already near 25 targets, so comfortably exceeding 24 targets. In this sense, last month, we achieved a higher lateral length drilling speed for one shell well in Angotura Sur Block, surpassing seventeen forty seven meters in twenty four hours. This lateral length is equivalent to 5,731 feet. We believe further improvement will be achieved through the our new real time intelligence center inaugurated last December.

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

This new technology and process optimization plan will allow YPF to continue increasing the day to day efficiency by taking real time data driving decision in drilling and wheel completion activities in Vaca Muerta with StarLink connectivity. This has been a transformational change in the acting business of YPF, moving from a monitoring room to a real time decision making process center. Thanks to this, we expect to materially improve our well construction costs in the near future. Moreover, we carry out the Tochota well project based on the efficiency of the car industry to reduce the time of our well construction cycle, reducing our working capital and increasing our profitability from the acceleration in production. Our target by 'twenty five is to decrease by 30% of the well construction cycle from three twelve days in '23.

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

As initial stage, we developed two prototype lines to be implemented on a large scale in Vaca Muerta in the near future. And the results are promising. We reach an average of 24% reduction at this initial stage. In the downstream segment, we reached a record high in the processing level of our refineries, exceeding 300,000 barrels per day in 2024 and exceeding the year with 318,000 barrels per day in December with a refined utilization of 92% mainly driven by the revamping of our La Plata refinery, which increased its capacity and improved the quality of the fuel by reducing the sulfur content. In addition, we achieved record high production level in 2024, '5 thousand '6 hundred and '5 cubic meter per day of premium diesel and 13,915 cubic meter per tonne of gasoline.

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

Regarding downtrend efficiency, during 'twenty four, we created a specialized industrial team to target and monitor the efficiency and productivity goals by implementing a series of initiatives such as the optimization of our refinery output, maintenance shutdowns and power consumption in our industrial complexes as well as a comprehensive improvement in product storage and logistics contracts. All in all, we record a total saving of fourth country $5,000,000 in 'twenty four. Moreover, we will inaugurate our downtown real time intelligence center in mid March, combining artificial intelligence to boost our efficiency metrics. This center will be the first in Argentina. In terms of financing, IPFE took the lead in reopening debt markets of Argentine corporates.

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

In January 24, we successfully issued an international bond market, a seven year bond of $800,000,000 Following this, we executed two additional bond transactions, $540,000,000 in September and $1,100,000,000 last January. This progressive strategic approach enabled us to effectively lower yields to 8.5% while increasing tenure. Moreover, in the local market, we successfully arranged the first syndicate bank transaction in more than four years, setting another reopening Argentine corporates. We secured $400,000,000 term loan structure in two and three year transit with participation of 16 financial institutions. Finally, we changed the authorization markets of the company, changing internal procedures and increasing the control process compliance.

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

Moving on to the next slide. Let me highlight that through our exit from maturefield, we are achieving the transformation of YPS since we managed to reduce losses, allocate capital efficiently and focus on Vaca Muerta, our most profitable asset. Let me also clarify that this is a new process with no precedent in Argentina seeing the owner of the resource at the provinces, and the approval requires several provincial authority to complete each process. Now let me briefly update on the progress we made so far. In the province of Mendoza, we already completed a transaction of Chancanello Cluster.

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

In Mendoza North, after having received all provincial approval, we are in the final stage expecting to close in within the next two weeks. In Mendoza South Cluster, we already obtained the assignment approval, and we expect the extension approval of the concession to be done in next week. Immediately after, we will close the transaction with the Bayer company. Regarding the promise of Rio Negro, we completed the transaction for the San Diego Fernandez Oro Clutter. In Senial Picada Punta Vada Clutter, we are in the final stage of negotiation, targeting to execute the SPA during March and why the closing should be no later than April.

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

In the province of Neuquen, we already received all the provincial approval for Neuquen Norte and South Clusters, just waiting for the corresponding decrease. In Taguiro, Puerto Nanda Clusters, we have initiate discussions to transfer reverted back to the province. Focusing on the province of Chudot, we already completed a transaction for El Trebol Escalante and Campamento Centranic Canyon Un Peridio clusters. While we are very advanced with the process of transferring or reverting rasingally to the province. Regarding the non operative position in Chuhot, we are in the ongoing negotiation.

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

Lastly, in the province of Santa Cruz and Tierra del Fuego, we are making progress in negotiation, targeting to transfer or regard the remaining assets back to the provinces. In summary, during these twelve months, we have achieved a material progress with no presence in YPF and Argentina. This is the most transformational project that YPF need to eliminate losses and inefficiencies. I continue to be committed to move forward with this project to be finished in the next few months. Now to begin with numbers, I'm pleased to share a quick overview of our key accomplishments obtained during this first year.

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

I'm proud to report that YPS has accounted for near one third of Vaca Morta shale oil production, achieving an impressive output of 122,000 barrels per day in 'twenty four. This marks a 26% increase compared to 'twenty three and is fully in line with the annual target related to the markets in March '4. Moreover, as of today, our net production is above 150,000 barrels per day. Looking ahead, we anticipate sustained growth in 'twenty five, concentrating our effort on our most profitable asset, Shale Loy from Vaca Muerta. Also, let me highlight that as operator, YPF produced more than half of Vaca Muerta shale oil production in 'twenty four.

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

The competitiveness of YPF is now more evident to the market based on the unique shale production scale and synergies that the company now consolidates between upstream and downstream segments. In line with this production ramp up, we almost tripled our oil export revenues in 'twenty four, achieving near $1,000,000,000 and averaging 35,000 barrels per day. In Q4, we jumped to 41,000 barrels per day, representing roughly 20% of the country oil export, making YPF the largest oil exporter of Argentina in 2024. In the downstream business, during the entire year, the company can be consistently adjusting local fuel price to be in line with international prices. As a result, we narrowed significantly the gap to import policies, decreasing from 20% in 'twenty three to just 2% in 'twenty four despite the significant devaluation that took place in December '3, while our market share remained strong at 56%.

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

Also, the recovery in price coupled with the steady efficiency initiatives mentioned before, that resulted in a better comprehensive refining and marketing EBITDA margin of $13.7 per barrel, growing 24 compared to 23%. This margin include refinery, chemical, petrochemical, logisticants and lubricants. In parallel, with the increase in export, we'll reduce the fuel imports significantly in 'twenty four, mostly due to demand contraction and refinery capacity expansion. It's also worth mentioning that '23 was affected by extraordinary demand driving by local price considering below import parities. During '24 in light wheat price recovery, demand declined particularly in the first half but gradually improved during the second half plus the improvement in refinery capacity mentioned before.

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

All the positive outlook can contribute to a 15 growth in the company's share EBITDA in 'twenty four compared to 'twenty three. However, let me clarify that 'twenty four figures could have been higher, but it was negatively impacted by two important factors. Roughly $300,000,000 negative EBITDA from mature fields and around $85,000,000 of lower EBITDA from the Patagonia were impact on conventional production. We are confident that this factor will be almost permanently eliminated once we complete our exit program from mature field during 'twenty five. In terms of investment, we deployed $5,000,000,000 in 'twenty four, reducing by five percent compared to 'twenty three percent and successfully meeting our target of $5,000,000,000 Despite the total CapEx remained almost stable, the breakdown changed significantly, lowering conventional activities, particularly in mature field and redirecting toward our coal shale operation, facilitating a ramp up in shale oil production.

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

Therefore, around 64% of the total CapEx of 24% was allocated in the unconventional asset, reaching an annual growth of 28%. On the financial side, we reported negative free cash flow of $760,000,000 in 'twenty four. Our improved EBITDA during this year was driven by the strong performance of our shale oil asset and recovery of refining margin as well as tighter CapEx compared to the previous year. Nevertheless, $24,000,000 was affected by around $600,000,000 negative impact, which consisted of $433,000,000 from mature field net of Brazil, Dollars One Hundred And Sixty Six Million of import payment deferred from 'twenty three and $85,000,000 from Patagonia Weather.

Maximiliano Westen
Strategy, New Businesses and Controlling Vice President at YPF

Now I will turn the call to Maxi.

Maximiliano Westen
Strategy, New Businesses and Controlling Vice President at YPF

Thank you, Horacio, and hello to everyone. Turning to our annual and fourth quarter financial results. Revenues reached $19,300,000,000 in 2024, marking an 11% annual increase, mainly driven by the rebounded fuel prices and a rise in oil exports. These gains were partially offset by a contraction in fuel demand, which was exceptionally high during the second half of twenty twenty three due to reduced fuel prices coupled with more than 200% gap between the official and the parallel FX rate. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $4,700,000,000 in 2024, reflecting a 15% annual increase, mainly boosted by higher revenues in hydrocarbon production.

Maximiliano Westen
Strategy, New Businesses and Controlling Vice President at YPF

However, as mentioned before, 2024 was affected by mature fields and Patagonia weather, while 2023 was impacted by high level of fuel imports and a wide gap to import priorities. Net results improved substantially, posting a gain of $2,400,000,000 in 2024 compared to a loss of $1,300,000,000 in the previous year. In 2023, the company recorded non cash impairment charge from material fields, while in 2024, there was a positive income tax accrual, driven by lower future tax payables. Investments in free cash flow was also explained in the previous slide, and as a result, our net debt rose to $7,400,000,000 a 9% increase from 2023, but we successfully reduced our net leverage ratio to 1.6 times fully aligned with the target. Now let me briefly explain the quarter financial results.

Maximiliano Westen
Strategy, New Businesses and Controlling Vice President at YPF

Fourth quarter revenues were 10% down sequentially, mostly due to the lower seasonal sales of gas and international reference prices, partially offset by higher demand in of fuels. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA was 39% down sequentially, primarily explained by lower revenue set before, reduced value of inventories of fuel and oil in line with price and marginally a $60,000,000 of extraordinary environmental provision in the downstream segment, partially offset by the shale oil expansion and recovery of Patagonia conventional. In the bottom line, in the fourth quarter, we reported a net loss of $284,000,000 compared to a net gain of $1,500,000,000 in the third quarter, mainly attributable to a lower EBITDA impairment and a one off cost related to mature fields as well as reduced deferred income tax benefit. Fourth quarter investments remained stable compared to the previous quarter, while in terms of free cash flow, we saw a positive turnaround reaching $64,000,000 Although EBITDA was not fully compensated by CapEx, we collected overdue natural gas receivables and proceeds from certain mature fields in addition to paying lower debt service. Now moving on to the upstream performance, our total hydrocarbon production amounted to 536,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2024, an increase of 4% versus 2023, mostly boosted by the remarkable growth in shale output, representing 53% of the total compared to 46% in 2023.

Maximiliano Westen
Strategy, New Businesses and Controlling Vice President at YPF

Also, let me mention that 22% of the total hydrocarbon production came from mature fields, which amounted to 117,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2024. Crude oil production reached a 6% annual growth in 2024, reaching 257,000 barrels per day on the back of a solid 26% shale expansion, more than compensating the lower conventional output decline significantly affected by reducing mature fields productivity and extreme weather in Patagonia during almost two months. Beyond crude oil, natural gas production grew 3% in 2024, reaching 37,400,000 cubic meters per day, mainly driven by the expansion of the Neuquina Basin evacuation capacity through the Perito Moreno gas pipeline and the following commissioning of the compressor plant in the same pipeline during July. Focusing on the fourth quarter, natural gas production remained essentially flat interannually, while declining sequentially mainly due to the off peak season. Let me mention that moving forward, our focus for the long term is to grow natural gas exports on a large scale.

Maximiliano Westen
Strategy, New Businesses and Controlling Vice President at YPF

Therefore, we are not aiming to expand our share in the local market. Lastly, NGL's production in 2024 stood at the same level versus 2023, averaging 43,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Fourth quarter NGL production decreased by 29% sequentially, mainly due to the maintenance at mega facilities. Moving to lifting costs, we recorded $15.6 per barrel of oil equivalent in 2024, remaining similar to 2023 as the lower productivity from mature fields in Patagonia weather were partially offset by the ramp up in shale hydrocarbon production. Excluding mature fields, our total lifting cost could have been below $9 per barrel of oil equivalent.

Maximiliano Westen
Strategy, New Businesses and Controlling Vice President at YPF

Very remarkable, during 2024, the lifting cost in our core hub blocks recorded $4.2 per barrel of oil equivalent on a gross basis, reinforcing our four by four strategy to focus the entire company on its core production. Fourth quarter total lifting cost illustrates the lower productivity of mature fields, increasing 7% sequentially, while core hub blocks on a growth basis posted 8% reduction, thanks to its outstanding productivity and operational efficiencies achieved along 2024. Regarding prices in the upstream segment, our crude oil prices rebounded to an average of $68 per barrel in 2024, '9 percent higher than 2023, while during the fourth quarter, it was almost $66 per barrel, reflecting a sequential construction of 4% aligned to the downward trend in Brent. On the natural gas side, prices reached $3.7 per million BTU in 2024, similar to 2023 and in line with planned gas contracts, while the fourth quarter decreased by 30% sequentially, mostly due to the planned gas of peak season price. Now, walking through the performance of our shale activities, the steady focus on operational efficiencies allowed us to completely surpass the initial targets set for 2024 in last March.

Maximiliano Westen
Strategy, New Businesses and Controlling Vice President at YPF

In this sense, during 2024, we drilled two zero seven and completed 189 horizontal wells at our operated blocks, increasing 1417%, respectively, versus 2023. Regarding tarrines, in accordance with our shale oil production targets for the year, we accelerated the activity reaching 195 tight in horizontal wells at our operated blocks, representing a remarkable growth of 29% versus 2023. Moreover, we continued setting new records in shale oil production, delivering 138,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter, growing 10% sequentially and 26% inter annually. As a result, we achieved the annual production target of more than 120,000 barrels per day in 2024. '80 '5 percent of total shale oil output for 2024 came from our core hub oil blocks Loma Campana, La Maraca Chica, Mandurria Sur and Agua El Chania.

Maximiliano Westen
Strategy, New Businesses and Controlling Vice President at YPF

This outstanding performance along 2024 reaffirms our confidence on our shale production ramp up plans and the recent commitments on the upcoming midstream expansions of Odelval and Beimos. In terms of efficiencies within our unconventional operations, as Horacio anticipated at the beginning of the presentation, we fully surpassed the targets set in March 2024 for drilling and fracking performance during the year, averaging three zero nine meters per day of drilling in our core half fields and two thirty five pages per set per month of fracking for the unconventional operations. Zooming into the evolution of our hydrocarbon reserves, total proof reserves according to the SEC criteria grew by 2% in 2024. The increase was mainly on the back of a 13% increase in our Baca Muerta shale reserves, which now represents 78% of our total P1 reserves, partially offset by decline in conventional reserves. Proof to reserves addition totaled $250,000,000 BOE, driven by the progressive developments and expansions of our uncommercial operations, particularly in Agua Pichano Este, Loma La Lata Norte and La Calera blocks.

Maximiliano Westen
Strategy, New Businesses and Controlling Vice President at YPF

It was partially offset by higher total hydrocarbon production, a downward revision of 17,000,000 BOE, mainly due to the strategy change in drilling schedules, as well as a 13,000,000 BOI reduction, mostly due to lower enhanced hydrocarbon recovery and the divestment of conventional blocks, El Trego Del Canalte and Giancanaillo. It is worth noting that proof developed reserves regarded an annual expansion of 3% in 2024, mainly explained by development activities, new extensions and discoveries mentioned exceeding the annual production. On the other hand, proved undeveloped reserves increased by 1% mainly because of new additions offset the volumes developed in drilling of new wells. Considering the shale hydrocarbon production ramp up in 2024 and the development of our shale reserves, the reserve replacement ratio increased to 1.9 times with eight point three year of reserves lies. Regarding total proved reserves, this ratio was 1.1 times with five point six years of reserves life.

Maximiliano Westen
Strategy, New Businesses and Controlling Vice President at YPF

Important also to clarify that excluding mature fields, the total organic ratio for our proved reserves improved to 1.5 times with six point eight years of reserve life. Finally, since the SEC proved reserves do not encompasses the huge potential of Vaca Muerta, let me tell you in advance that we're going to share our inventory of wells in Vaca Muerta during our Investor Day, which will take place on April 11 in the New York Stock Exchange. Moving on to our downstream segment, during 2024, the company has been constantly updating fuel prices to converge to international priorities and mitigate the impact of the currency devaluation while preserving the market share. As a result, we were able to reduce the gap of impropriety from 20% in 2023 to only 2% in 2024. In line with price recovery and several operational efficiencies achieved during the year, refining and marketing EBITDA margins in 2024 was $13.7 per barrel, achieving an improvement of 24% compared to 2023.

Maximiliano Westen
Strategy, New Businesses and Controlling Vice President at YPF

However, fuel sales volumes decreased by 7% along 2024 to 13,900,000 cubic meters, mainly because 2023 was affected by an exceptional high levels of demand driven by low prices, especially in the second half of the year. Despite this, demand started to slightly increase in the second half of twenty twenty four. During the year, YPF maintained a strong fuel sales market share of 56%, fully in line with our historical levels and leadership in the market. In terms of processing levels, it was 301,000 barrels per day in 2024, '2 percent higher than 2023 and surpassing our annual target. This was mainly driven by the revamping of Topping Day at La Plata Refinery in November 2023 combined with the completion of additional works within the new fuel specification projects framework.

Maximiliano Westen
Strategy, New Businesses and Controlling Vice President at YPF

In addition, we also expanded our oil pumping capacity from Quest Hernandez to Lujan De Cuyo Complex during 2024. It is worth mentioning that the utilization rate remained around 90% in 2024. Now let me provide a brief update on the progress achieved in the oil midstream expansions to unlock the evacuation capacity in the Nuquina Basin. By the end of twenty twenty four, Ode Laval achieved a total transportation capacity of 330,000 barrels per day. And during this month, its capacity will jump to 540,000 barrels per day.

Maximiliano Westen
Strategy, New Businesses and Controlling Vice President at YPF

YPS holds 25% shipping state in Odehual. It is worth mentioning that the filling process will be gradual, aligning with the production ramp up and after successfully passing the testing period. We plan to use this additional capacity to deliver our shale oil to La Plata Refinery. Achieving another major objective that the management team targeted for 2024, last December, we formally announced the signing of the project documents and initial shipping commitments to start construction of Deimos together with the major oil producers of Vaca Muerta. The project consists of a four forty kilometers oil export dedicated pipeline in a marine terminal capable of receiving VLCCs to deliver Vaca Muerta shale oil to Asian markets.

Maximiliano Westen
Strategy, New Businesses and Controlling Vice President at YPF

YPS initially shipping capacity will be 120,000 barrels per day, roughly 27% of over 450,000 barrels per day committed capacity at COD targeted by 2027. The design of the pipeline allows to further increase the capacity to roughly 700,000 barrels per day if needed. The construction of the facility already started last January and now follows with contractors' mobilization, earthmoving works and line pipe delivery. In parallel, Deimos is making progress on two key avenues. First, the riggy application for governmental approval and second, the process to secure project finance, targeting 70% debt and 30% equity.

Maximiliano Westen
Strategy, New Businesses and Controlling Vice President at YPF

On this front, Beimos has just mandated five international banks for an initial syndicated loan of $1,700,000,000 I will now turn the call over to Federico to go through the financials.

Federico Barroetave
Chief Financial Officer at YPF

Thank you, Max. Switching to the financials, let's start with cash flow evolution. In 2024, we posted a negative free cash flow of $760,000,000 First of all, although our CapEx of 2024 was lower than 2023, it was not fully offset by the improvement in our adjusted EBITDA. It is important to highlight that this annual EBITDA includes two negative effects, around $300,000,000 from mature fields and about $85,000,000 from severe climate in Patagonia. From a cash flow consideration, in 2024, we also recorded a negative $133,000,000 from mature fields, which includes a negative $269,000,000 of additions of assets held for sale, net of $136,000,000 of divestment net proceeds.

Federico Barroetave
Chief Financial Officer at YPF

Finally, when analyzing the company cash performance during 2024, we must consider that we paid $166,000,000 of temporary deferred import liabilities from 2023, collected lower dividends from affiliates and disbursed higher debt service. In terms of financing, in Q4, we issued $2 bonds with a tenure of four years, totaling $150,000,000 at a yield ranging between 6.57%. Also, we added 100,000,000 of syndicated loan and around $60,000,000 of short term trade financial facilities. After the closing of 2024 in January, we successfully issued a nine year unsecured international bond for $1,100,000,000 at a yield of 8.5. The proceeds were mainly allocated to refinance the $757,000,000 of the 2025 notes and to acquire 54% of Sierra Chartres block, one of the most prospective Vaca Muerta shale gas block.

Federico Barroetave
Chief Financial Officer at YPF

Regarding the 2025 notes, we executed a cash tender offer, repaying $315,000,000 and the make whole call options for the balance in February. Additionally, last month, we issued $2 MEP local bonds, dollars 140,000,000 with a two year tenure at 6.25 and $60,000,000 with a six month tenure at 3.5. With this last international bond issuance, we successfully completed our initial plan to derisk the company debt profile, aligning it with our four by four plan. The company now faces less than $1,000,000,000 of managerial and mostly local maturities during 2025, consisting of $400,000,000 of short term trade facilities with local and international banks, $281,000,000 of mainly export backed bonds, $147,000,000 of local bond and $51,000,000 with CAF. Having achieved the refinancing of our 2025 bond early this year and considering that most of our 26 maturities consist primarily of bank trade lines and issuance with the local capital markets, as of today, we do not need to reenter the international bond market until approaching the 2027 bond maturity.

Federico Barroetave
Chief Financial Officer at YPF

On the other hand, following the upgrade in sovereign rating as well as country risk improvement and current perspectives, two global rating agencies have just raised YPF trade rating. Moody's upgraded from CAA3 to CAA1 with a stable outlook and S and P upgraded from CCC to B-. On the liquidity front, by the end of twenty twenty four, our cash and short term investments increased 9% versus previous year to $1,500,000,000 in line with our net debt increase, which amounted to $7,400,000,000 Despite the increase in net debt, higher adjusted EBITDA reduced the net leverage ratio from 1.7 to 1.6 times in line with the target for the year. Now, I will return the call to Horacio for final remarks.

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

Thank you, Federico. Before concluding our presentation and jumping to the Q and A session, let me briefly announce that after the important knowledge, results and experience of the new management team during this first year, on April 11, we'll be holding our Investor Day at the New York Stock Exchange. There, we will present our five year plan and go through the main drivers of our 4x4 plan, focusing on our financial and production outlook, including certain sensitivity analysis, productivity metrics in Vaca Muerta and the progress of our main projects, among other key aspects of our strategy. This presentation will be led by YPF's executive team followed by Q and A session. We are pleased to invite you to our Investor Day and look forward to your participation.

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

Finally, let me close today's presentation, but say we are confident that investors have appreciated this significant agenda that YPS had deployed along last year in almost all critical areas of the company, focusing primarily on profitability and growth. We are very focused in making value and putting YPS as one of the best energy companies. This has been just the beginning. We will continue driving our 4x4 plan during 2025 with more knowledge, confidence and conviction. So with this, we conclude our presentation and open the floor for questions.

Operator

Our first question comes from Andreas Cardona from Citigroup.

Andrés Cardona
Andrés Cardona
Director at Citigroup

Porrasio PE, looking forward to a strategy update. My question, it's about the Vaca Muerta sort of expansion? How we should expect the ramp up? How confident are you to add in the 180,000 barrels by the fourth quarter twenty twenty six? Because when talking with some industry players, they doesn't seem to count with those volumes by then.

Andrés Cardona
Andrés Cardona
Director at Citigroup

They only expect to see the incremental capacity by the third quarter twenty twenty seven. And yes, we want to understand why is the different perception and why are you so confident to deliver by the third quarter the fourth quarter 'twenty six.

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

Hi, can you hear me?

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

It was me, sorry, sorry. I don't know who talked mute. Now you are hearing me?

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

You are here?

Andrés Cardona
Andrés Cardona
Director at Citigroup

Yes.

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

Hello? Yes. Thank you. Okay. I'm sorry.

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

I was mute. I don't know why. We are very confident that with Demos, we are going to deliver in the fourth quarter 'twenty six and also in the second half of 'twenty seven. We are very exciting that we are all the partners are in. And we finish with all that in.

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

So the tariffs will be very low comparing what we expect the REN because we expect more than 500,000.0 that was, I don't know how to say, the community for everybody. What I can answer you implicitly for the fourth quarter, I don't know which person you are talking about. But I'm talking about the production of APS, we are going to deliver that. I think that it will be efficient that we have, production that we have, the team that we have in the uptrend, I think we can deliver more. But I expect that, okay?

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

So I'm not totally I'm very confident that from YPF we are going to deliver what we say.

Operator

Our next question comes from Daniel Guardiola from Hitachi Paccio. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Daniel Guardiola
Executive Director - Equity Research at BTG Pactual

Hi. Thank you. And good

Daniel Guardiola
Executive Director - Equity Research at BTG Pactual

morning, Horacio, Federico and Max. Thank you for your presentation. I would like to touch on two topics, one on prices and the second one on the Sierra Charta acquisition. On prices, I would like to know guys if you could please share with us at which price are you currently selling your crude. And considering that recently, we saw a very significant bearish movement in our prices, I would like to know if or if you can share with us at which levels of prices would you consider to start reducing your CapEx for 2025?

Daniel Guardiola
Executive Director - Equity Research at BTG Pactual

And this environment, if you're considering to hedge a portion of your expected production for 2025? So that's on prices. And the second one is a very short question on Serra Chata. Can you please share with us guys what is the price that you pay for the acquisition of this stake of Exxon in this field? And what is the expected ramp up in terms of production?

Daniel Guardiola
Executive Director - Equity Research at BTG Pactual

Thank you very much.

Daniel Guardiola
Executive Director - Equity Research at BTG Pactual

Okay. Because I'm very transparent by and we have a problem with the microphone, I will ask people that have better interest than me because at the beginning, I'm in the third

Daniel Guardiola
Executive Director - Equity Research at BTG Pactual

field.

Margarita Chun
Investor Relations Officer at YPF

But Danny, we couldn't I couldn't hear you the last part of the first question.

Daniel Guardiola
Executive Director - Equity Research at BTG Pactual

So we have a problem because if Margarita doesn't understand me, so we have a very bad microphone. The quality of

Operator

the microphone, we are sorry.

Daniel Guardiola
Executive Director - Equity Research at BTG Pactual

So I'm going to go more happy, okay? Yes.

Daniel Guardiola
Executive Director - Equity Research at BTG Pactual

Okay. Horacio, can you share with us at which prices are you

Daniel Guardiola
Executive Director - Equity Research at BTG Pactual

selling your truth right now?

Margarita Chun
Investor Relations Officer at YPF

Price of the crude oil?

Daniel Guardiola
Executive Director - Equity Research at BTG Pactual

Yes. At which prices are you selling your crude right now? Your oil right now?

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

Yes, yes. What we have is the, what is the gasoline, our prices in the import parity product. I was in a TV, the other, I would say two or three months ago. And what I said to everybody that we are going to increase the price of gasoline when the price of oil goes up and we are going to go down when the price goes down. And why that?

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

Because we try to maintain the import parity of product, okay? What is the price that we sell when we export export parity? What's the price that we buy export parity? What's the price of the gasoline import parity product? I don't answer that question.

Daniel Guardiola
Executive Director - Equity Research at BTG Pactual

But I mean, I would also concern that oil prices are below $70 in terms of Brent at the levels that you're selling right now, your oil?

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

No. Remember that the oil, when you sell the oil, there is a time frame when you make an average of the price, okay? I don't know if that's the price of that, the oil will be, if it will be more, I would say, three months, we are going to sell index both parity and the price will go down $5 compared with last week. The same will happen with the gasoline. In the gasoline, we have a strategy that like I know is pretty clear because our competition, if I explained in how we work.

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

But we have a, like I said, procedure to put the prices to avoid, I would say, short spikes, I would say, spikes up, spikes down. And majority of the course Argentina was Argentina was not the country to in general. From now on, it's like this. And I'm sure that we will continue with this President that we are going to be open and so a free market. And so in that way, people are not accustomed to go out and down or up as in United States or Europe.

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

And so we prepare like a procedure to avoid spikes, so people will not be nervous. But at the end for YPS, it's almost the same, okay?

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

And at which prices?

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

Yes, sorry. I just wanted

Daniel Guardiola
Executive Director - Equity Research at BTG Pactual

to ask you, at which level of oil prices will you consider to start reducing your CapEx for 2025?

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

Okay. Remember, we are going out almost, I would say, it's not your question, but I think in two or three months from now, we are almost out of all the mature field. And you can calculate with your Excel simple way of seeing YPS that we are resilient for very low prices. But also, if that's happened and the brand goes down, down, down, down, down, down, down, down, down, down, down, down, down, down, down,

Daniel Guardiola
Executive Director - Equity Research at BTG Pactual

down, down, down, down, down, down, down, down, down, down, down, down, down, down, down, down, down, down, down, down, down, down, down, down, down, down, down, down, down, down, down, down,

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

down, down, down, down, down to have changes, okay? For sure. I don't think that today is the day to do that. But if we continue going down and it maintains, for sure, we will see. And before, remember, what our CFO always say is allocate capital, strict capital allocation.

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

Okay. And the last question was on Sierra Chartres.

Daniel Guardiola
Executive Director - Equity Research at BTG Pactual

Yes, thank you, Ravi. And on Sierra Chata?

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

Yes. With Sierra Chata, it's very difficult to see there because remember that we are a company. But what I can tell you that we think that we make a very good business because all, I would say, all the undeveloped call you as you want, resources or or research because this is unconventional way. We buy in $0.02 per million due to what I think is a very good price.

Daniel Guardiola
Executive Director - Equity Research at BTG Pactual

Thank you. Thank you, Rastian and guys and team.

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Bruno Montanari from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Bruno Montanari
Bruno Montanari
Executive Director - Equity Research at Morgan Stanley

Hi, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. The first question is about your free cash flow profile for 2025. I know you will give more color on the Investor Day, but just focusing on next year, the company has been in a way pointing to neutral cash flow in 2025. So I wanted to confirm if that is still the plan, if the base case is for neutral cash flow in 2025?

Bruno Montanari
Bruno Montanari
Executive Director - Equity Research at Morgan Stanley

My second question is if you can provide us with an update on the LNG project. So when we could expect the final investment decisions for both the Golar project and then the YPF led project? And my third question is about your lifting costs. I assume that part of the cost increase in the fourth quarter was because of the strong peso. So wondering what we can expect now in the first quarter of the year in terms of lifting costs?

Bruno Montanari
Bruno Montanari
Executive Director - Equity Research at Morgan Stanley

Thank you very much.

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

Okay. Free cash flow on your top and CapEx, we are going I'm going to present on April 11 Investor Day, all that in very detail. You can have a question that you want there. We said the free cash flow, that it will be neutral. It depends what you call neutral.

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

We think we are going to deliver that idea. It will be minus plus the dislocation in this company, okay? But I'm going to present we are going to present, but personally, I'm going to present that on April. Update of M and G, we are in a very good situation. We will see there.

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

And also I will explain in more detail on April 11 because at that moment, I think we will have a better way and we'll be more sure what I have to do here. But I'm very positive with the Argentina and Egypt project. Very positive that Argentina and Y itself will be delivered this project for us, for the country and for the shareholders. The last is the cost. As you see, we are maintaining the cost because we work every day in efficiency.

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

Our goal every day that I come 06:45 is to deliver efficiency. You cannot imagine how we the guy of BPO are paying. Every day I go to him and I don't know how he loves me today because every day I go and we are working in efficiency line by line. That's why we are very good on that. And I don't know if there is another one.

Bruno Montanari
Bruno Montanari
Executive Director - Equity Research at Morgan Stanley

No, that was it.

Bruno Montanari
Bruno Montanari
Executive Director - Equity Research at Morgan Stanley

Thank you.

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

I don't know if you have any questions.

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Tassos Vasconcelos from UBS. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Tasso Vasconcellos
Tasso Vasconcellos
Equity Research at UBS Group

Hi, Rachos. Hi, Federico. Hi, Pieterico.

Tasso Vasconcellos
Tasso Vasconcellos
Equity Research at UBS Group

Hi, Pieterico.

Tasso Vasconcellos
Tasso Vasconcellos
Equity Research at UBS Group

Hi, Pieterico. Hi, Pieterico.

Tasso Vasconcellos
Tasso Vasconcellos
Equity Research at UBS Group

Hi, Pieterico. Thanks for taking my questions here. Let me start with one here on M and A activity. We are actually seeing some increased activity in Argentina. Exxon recently saw their assets, you actually acquired Sierra Charta.

Tasso Vasconcellos
Tasso Vasconcellos
Equity Research at UBS Group

Recent news also indicate that both Total and Equinor could eventually evaluate selling their assets as well. We know that Raizen is looking for a potential buyer for its refinery in Argentina. And amid this context here, YPF is for sure a potential buyer for these assets, right? No, not sorry for interest. So maybe split the questions here in two parts.

Tasso Vasconcellos
Tasso Vasconcellos
Equity Research at UBS Group

The first one, does any of these assets does actually interest YPF at all? Or do you like one better than the others? And maybe the second part of the question, if not these specific assets that I just mentioned here, any other ones that you would be interested in acquiring in Argentina at the moment? These are my questions.

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

Okay. The first in the capital allocation in Horizon, from my start here, I always hear that Raizen, but it's not I'm not the person to answer that, as to Raizen on Shell, but I cannot answer that. But even if you are interested to see if we are going to be wanting to buy a new refinery, the answer is no. We have, so far, you know that we have 58% of the market share. We have it, I think we are very good in, we are improving a lot, not really improving a lot in the refinery sector, but it's not in our thinking that we are going to increase, not that.

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

The second part, we will say the Equinor or the other is seen. So I have no official lab, even the some will say, but in what is the remember our role, the active management is something that is in Mac and more that we think is in core, in a very core. And because now we are very selective. I will say very core in the base price, only we are going to see. But it's not the moment today that I say you that, that one.

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

It depends also or remember the active portfolio management and the free capital allocation, we will see at the moment. That is not for sure or everybody that sells there, that sells very good assets here at YPS are one of the possible active guys to take over that. So I can answer exactly as always explained. If something is very good, we will see pricing, we will hear all that. And if we think that we make value for shareholders, you will see YPS in that process.

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

I don't know if I answer the question and you need more detail, I have no idea.

Tasso Vasconcellos
Tasso Vasconcellos
Equity Research at UBS Group

I think it's very clear. Appreciate it. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Leonardo Marconis from Bank of America. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Leonardo Marcondes
Leonardo Marcondes
VP - Equity Research at Bank of America

Hi, good afternoon, everyone. Hi, Horacio, Federico and Maxigliano. I have two from my side, specifically on the upstream segments. So the first one, we know that YPF is the largest play in Vaca Muerta and that the company also owns many blocks in this same area, right? So my question is, could you provide a color on what's the company's current well inventory?

Leonardo Marcondes
Leonardo Marcondes
VP - Equity Research at Bank of America

I mean, how many derisked wells you guys have? And how many years would it take for YPS to drill all these wells considering the company's current capacity to tie in wells per year? My second question is with the conclusion of the divestments, what should we expect from the development of Vaca Muerta, more tie ins per year, higher RRR. And additionally, the company has improved a lot the development of Vaca Muerta, right, like the better fax speed and so on. So what is the target there?

Leonardo Marcondes
Leonardo Marcondes
VP - Equity Research at Bank of America

What else can be done to improve these metrics even further? Thank you.

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

Okay. Thank you for all the questions. I'll try to follow. Remember, I am a fungi. First, when you say, I will say summarize when you say well inventory, I will explain that in much more detail on April 11.

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

But the, as I say, roughly number, are you sitting or are you picking up?

Leonardo Marcondes
Leonardo Marcondes
VP - Equity Research at Bank of America

John, I can't hear.

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

Okay. We have in the order of 10,000 wells. You can say 50, I would say, gross, okay? Inventory is a gross inventory. I would say that it's in the order of 50% of oil, 50% of oil, but this is roughly numbers that I have in my mind, okay?

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

On April 11, we are going we will have there the full development of oil YPS

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

and

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

I will answer in detail at that moment, okay? Now, if you see, we are drilling in the order in 2018. We are we grew in the order of 200 wells. So the capacity of timing, I don't see this at all. And sometimes it's a question of the belt in valve that there is.

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

And also the first year was the way that YPF had before the way of working with the partners. Now what we are working is to have every all the budget tied with the fourth with the partners and after we freed up with our 100% active consumption blocks, sorry, 100% block. Why we are in that? Two reasons. The first the more important reason why we are in the order of 200 wells is because we try to not to invest and have DAX, okay?

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

Our idea is to make properly. And so now because of the capacity that we have, the incremental that we see for all the evacuation way is that the number. In when the demos will be finished and after is a question of all your CapEx, at that moment, we will increase the activity in the oil for sure. And the other was the conclusion of divestment of the other company. You say, for example, to have the idea you are talking about for ExxonMobil and the other?

Margarita Chun
Investor Relations Officer at YPF

The allocation of capital.

Leonardo Marcondes
Leonardo Marcondes
VP - Equity Research at Bank of America

No, no. Okay.

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

When it's okay. I now under two. Okay. For the when we reduce all the mature fields and we did in the '24 also, we reduced a lot the investment much as we could and we put in Vaca Muerta. The idea of this memory is to try to maximize Vaca Muerta and not go into more than we need to feed up all the capacity that we have today.

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

Okay? And so for next year, we put for $25,000,000,000 for YPF, but this is almost maintaining the investment that we had the year before. And we are very confident in incremental operation in Vaca Muerta. After we have need for the reserve replacement ratio, the reserve replacement ratio is remember that we have to do and is the way to do that is 1.9. Why that?

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

Because it's a rule. In fact, you have to have a rule that if you make physics, I will say the physics, I will explain that later in O3-eleven that is for locations. So there, I can explain block by block how many locations that we have and you can make a very good, you have a good feeling of what we have in hand and the possibility of YPS to increase and this wonderful company can increase in next year.

Operator

Our next question comes from Vicente Falanga from Bradesco. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Vicente Falanga Neto
Analyst at Bradesco BBI

Thank you very much, Horacio, Federico and Max. I had two questions basically. First one on the fourth quarter results. To what extent did the filling of the Old El Val expansion affect the fourth quarter results? Some of your partners in Vaca Muerta highlighted that because of the fill up of Old El Val, production did not convert into revenues.

Vicente Falanga Neto
Analyst at Bradesco BBI

I wanted to understand if that's the case for YPF. And do you have an estimate of how much? The second question Just one very quick one. With the asset sales for the mature fields hopefully being concluded by the middle of this year, where can we expect the lifting costs to fall to immediately? Thank you very much.

Vicente Falanga Neto
Analyst at Bradesco BBI

The

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

other one result, if there is delay or not, it doesn't change a lot today for YPFY because I don't know if we were very clear one day that we explained.

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

How we

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

see the evaluation figure or evaluation map for us? Now we support for Chile, will depend for Chile, okay? And the other level for us is internal consumption, okay? So we are not affected a lot in our case, okay? It could affect, I don't know, who company because I'm not looking all the company all day.

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

I'm looking only one year. So it's not that it could be affect if we delay the demos, not here, okay? That is the answer there. With the market field, hopefully, I'm sure that also hopefully, I'm sure, okay, that we are going to be very out there. The our lift is going to be very low number.

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

Well, is it nine? No, nine because it's nine. Nine because also we have two more mature fields that are the best that you can have in the one is in we have only two. But in the fourth in the look at the half core that we are in the range of four. So we are barely receiving it from the future.

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

And that was the initial idea when we come to APS That is to reduce the go out of the mature field because it was not for IPS. That was not the logical way of working for this size of the company. Renew the lifting costs a lot as we are doing and be resilient for very low prices. And so when the price goes up, we make a lot of money. And that is the way that we will be

Operator

in. Our next question comes from Guillermo Mertens from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Guilherme Costa Martins
Guilherme Costa Martins
Equity Research Associate at Goldman Sachs

Thanks so much for having my questions. I have two quick ones from my side here. The first one is on your guidance for shale oil production, right? Please correct me if I'm wrong, but you said you're currently running roughly 150,000 barrels of oil in shale, right? While your guidance for 2025 is something above 160,000.

Guilherme Costa Martins
Guilherme Costa Martins
Equity Research Associate at Goldman Sachs

So it could seem as quite conservative given your current run rate. I know you mentioned you provide further details on your Investor Day on April, but as of today, do you see room for maybe an upward revision target? And my second question is on capital allocation. If you could please share your thoughts on what do you think global E and Ps are seeking to divest from Argentina and Vaca Muerta? And what are the competitive advantage do you believe IPS has over those players?

Guilherme Costa Martins
Guilherme Costa Martins
Equity Research Associate at Goldman Sachs

Thanks so much.

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

Okay. You are anxious like me, okay? I'm anxious, okay? Really, I'm very anxious. April 11, '40 days from now, more recent, nothing.

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

I will explain there. But I have to, I would like to answer. So today, not today, but the yesterday or the day before yesterday, the production of Vaca Muerta was 156,000 per day. So if you see the guidance 25,000, you can realize that we are investing $3,000,000,000 there. I'm very confident that we are going to pass the guidance, okay?

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

That is the first question. Second question, capital allocation in the investment in Vaca Muerta. I explained that before, I think. If the opportunities come and we see that some part is better than we have, we are going to do the, what we call, active portfolio management. And so what we are going to do is to take this and maybe in the full development, if we see that we are not making value for the shareholders, we will sell the others.

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

That is the way it works. And I think that what I have to work and what you want from me to do.

Guilherme Costa Martins
Guilherme Costa Martins
Equity Research Associate at Goldman Sachs

Okay? Okay. Thank you.

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

Is there any way I answer?

Operator

Sorry to those that are still in queue. We are out of time for questions today. I would like to turn the call back over to Horacio Marin for any closing remarks.

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

Okay. Thank you very much for all the questions. Thank you very much for your help. And we will see in April 11 where you can have hundreds of questions. We are going to be on live there.

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

And so we can be up to midnight if you want. Okay? Thank you

Horacio Marin
CEO & Chairman at YPF

very much.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

Analysts
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YPF Sociedad Anónima Q4 2024
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