ASML Q1 2025 Pre Recorded Earnings Report

ASML EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $6.31
• Consensus EPS: $6.12
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$0.19
• One Year Ago EPS: N/A

ASML Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $8.77 billion
• Expected Revenue: $7.90 billion
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$874.80 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: N/A

ASML Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q1 2025 Pre Recorded
• Date: 4/16/2025
• Time: Before Market Opens
• Conference Call Date: Wednesday, April 16, 2025
• Conference Call Time: 1:00AM ET

ASML (NASDAQ:ASML) develops, produces, markets, sells, and services advanced semiconductor equipment systems for chipmakers. It offers advanced semiconductor equipment systems, including lithography, metrology, and inspection systems. The company also provides extreme ultraviolet lithography systems; and deep ultraviolet lithography systems comprising immersion and dry lithography solutions to manufacture various range of semiconductor nodes and technologies. In addition, it offers metrology and inspection systems, including YieldStar optical metrology systems to assess the quality of patterns on the wafers; and HMI electron beam solutions to locate and analyze individual chip defects. Further, the company provides computational lithography solutions, and lithography systems and control software solutions; and refurbishes and upgrades lithography systems, as well as offers customer support and related services. It operates in Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, China, rest of Asia, the Netherlands, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the United States. The company was formerly known as ASM Lithography Holding N.V. and changed its name to ASML Holding N.V. in 2001. ASML Holding N.V. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Veldhoven, the Netherlands.

ASML Q1 2025 Pre Recorded Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Strong Q1 performance: Net sales of €7.7 billion, gross margin of 54%, net income of €2.4 billion, and €3.9 billion in orders (including €1.2 billion for EUV) all met or beat guidance.
• Full-year 2025 revenue guidance remains between €30 billion and €35 billion, driven by robust AI demand but with potential downside if customer capacity additions slow.
• Segment outlook: Advanced logic demand is surging with 2 nm ramp-ups, memory is stable year-over-year, and the installed base is growing via a higher EUV tool mix.
• Tariffs pose uncertainty: Potential duties on system shipments, parts, and U.S. manufacturing could impact global GDP and market demand, creating risk for 2025.
• Capital allocation: €2.7 billion of share buybacks executed in Q1 and proposal for a €1.84 final dividend, bringing total 2024 payouts to €6.40 per share.

Presentation

[Jim Kavanagh, VP Investor Relations at ASML]

Hello, and welcome to ASML's Q1 twenty twenty five Results. Welcome Christophe, welcome Roger. Roger if I can start with you, can you provide us an overview of Q1 twenty twenty five results?

[Roger Dassen, Executive VP & CFO at ASML]

Sure. Total net sales came in at €7,700,000,000 Included in there €2,000,000,000 for installed base business, 7,700,000,000.0 within guidance. Gross margin came in a little bit better than guidance at 54%. Main reasons why it was a bit better, actually two. One, ASP for EUV was higher as a result of a more 3800s versus 3600s in the mix than we anticipated and also because the configuration of the EUV tools was a bit richer than we anticipated.

[Roger Dassen, Executive VP & CFO at ASML]

Second main reason is that we had some customer specific performance targets for the quarter and we got rewarded for that. Net income for the quarter came in at EUR 2,400,000,000.0 and the order intake was EUR 3,900,000,000.0 of orders for the quarter, included in there EUR 1,200,000,000.0 for EUV.

[Jim Kavanagh, VP Investor Relations at ASML]

Christoph, if I can turn to you and ask you if you can give us a some insights on how you're looking at the full year 2025 in terms of the market.

[Christophe Fouquet, President, CEO & Member of Management Board at ASML]

Well, think the dynamic is very similar to what we discussed last quarter. AI is still the driver of the market. The demand is strong, it remains strong and we see two scenarios. If the demand on AI continue to be strong and our customers are capable to add capacity, so we have basically opportunity for an upside looking at the upper range of our guidance, the EUR 35,000,000,000. On the other hand, we still see some uncertainty with some of our customer that could also take us to the lower end of the guidance, the 30,000,000,000. But overall, same dynamic.

[Jim Kavanagh, VP Investor Relations at ASML]

Then can you share some more insights on how you're looking at the different segments, you know, logic, memory and installed base through 2025?

[Christophe Fouquet, President, CEO & Member of Management Board at ASML]

Yes. So we still see logic increasing. I think it's very strong, especially because of advanced logic. We've been talking about two nanometer for a long time. This is now happening and customer are ramping their very advanced logic node.

[Christophe Fouquet, President, CEO & Member of Management Board at ASML]

For memory, we think memory will remain strong same level as last year and this is also being confirmed by the activity of our customer. When it comes to the installed base, our installed base is growing. We see a stronger mix of EUV versus Deep UV and this is also leading to some growth in the installed base in 2025.

[Jim Kavanagh, VP Investor Relations at ASML]

And then how do you see the dynamics around tariffs playing a role in the markets?

[Christophe Fouquet, President, CEO & Member of Management Board at ASML]

Well, I think the whole dynamic is still very new and I think the one thing I like to say which is being shared by many experts, many businesses is that this dynamic is creating a new uncertainty, especially when it comes to GDP, so micro level and indirectly of course our potential market demand. So this is a dynamic I think we have to watch very carefully. Now this being said, where we are today, we still see basically our revenue range for 2025 being between basically EUR 30,000,000 and EUR 35,000,000.

[Jim Kavanagh, VP Investor Relations at ASML]

Then maybe if we switch to technology, how are we making progress in terms of supporting our customers and their requirements? Maybe first with Loe and A?

[Christophe Fouquet, President, CEO & Member of Management Board at ASML]

Well, let me start maybe with EUV in general because you know that Low NA, INA are going to be combined at some point by our customer in order to optimize basically their technology, their product roadmap and also their cost. So it's very important that we make progress on both platforms. When it comes to Loa NA, I think some great achievement this quarter. We have upgraded our first system in the field to the final specification, $2.20 wafer per hour. Roger was mentioning that this start to have a positive impact basically on our margin in Q1.

[Christophe Fouquet, President, CEO & Member of Management Board at ASML]

Good adoption from our customer. They are all shifting basically to this platform. And we really expect that the 3,800 is going to become on the very, very short term the main tool for low NA. Now this is very important. We talked a lot about litho intensity, about cost of technology in our Capital Market Day and the progress on productivity basically allow us to execute with our customer on cost of technology.

[Christophe Fouquet, President, CEO & Member of Management Board at ASML]

And as a result, we start to see the opportunity to have more EUV single exposed adoption, of course, the expense of multi patterning. This is great for our customer because it helps with cycle time, simplification, yield and of course for SML this means that this little intensity, especially for DRAM now, is continuing to increase.

[Jim Kavanagh, VP Investor Relations at ASML]

And then looking at High NA, we recently had a SPIE conference back in February. Can you share some of the results that came from that conference?

[Christophe Fouquet, President, CEO & Member of Management Board at ASML]

Yes. So I think SPIE was a very good event because we saw our customer being very eager to share basically their results on INA. A few strong example, I think Intel was explaining that they had exposed more than 30,000 wafer on their tool. They also pointed very strongly to the fact that INA could help them simplify their process and they mentioned one layer where they could reduce basically the number of process step from 40 to 10, which of course helps with cycle time, yield and process complexity. Samsung also on the same topic said that INA could reduce their cycle time in fact by 60%.

[Christophe Fouquet, President, CEO & Member of Management Board at ASML]

So we start to see basically some of the value of INA being recognized, measured in some way by our customer, which is very, very encouraging. Now on top of that, we have now shipped all our EXE 5,003 of our customer have this tool either installed or under installation. So we also continue to expect basically a lot more data, lot more learning on I and A in the coming weeks.

[Jim Kavanagh, VP Investor Relations at ASML]

Maybe back to you, Roger. If you can maybe follow-up on Christophe's comments around tariffs, how do you see that potentially impacting 2025 for ASMO?

[Roger Dassen, Executive VP & CFO at ASML]

I think Christophe said, first of all, it's a very dynamic field that we're operating in when it comes to tariffs. And maybe, you know, would it be good to have a bit of a breakdown where it could potentially affect the ecosystem? So first off, obviously, you have tariffs that could be imposed on shipments of entire systems, new systems into The United States so that's one category. The second category would be tariffs imposed on parts and tools that you use for field operations in The United States. The third category could be on what we import into The United States for manufacturing in The U.

[Roger Dassen, Executive VP & CFO at ASML]

S. As you know we have some manufacturing capability in The U. S. So anything related to that that would be the third category. And the fourth could be you know any other country imposing tariffs on things that are being shipped from The United States into those countries.

[Roger Dassen, Executive VP & CFO at ASML]

So those are the different I would say direct implications of tariffs. We're very actively working with the entire ecosystem to try and minimize the overall impact on the whole ecosystem as a result of that, you know, once we have better understanding of how exactly it all works. But clearly our intent is that the impact that it should have on our financials should be as limited as possible. Then of course you have the indirect effect and this is what Christophe also talked about. To what extent will it have an impact on global GDP?

[Roger Dassen, Executive VP & CFO at ASML]

To what extent will it have an impact on on end market, total total market demand? And I think it's way too early to to discuss that, and and therefore, it's it's quite impossible actually to put a to put a number to put a number on that.

[Jim Kavanagh, VP Investor Relations at ASML]

Having said all that, how do you look at Q2 in terms of guidance? Can you provide some detail there?

[Roger Dassen, Executive VP & CFO at ASML]

Yes. So when it comes to revenue, we expect revenue between 7,200,000,000 and €7,700,000,000 for Q2, again approximately €2,000,000,000 for installed base for the installed base business. Gross margin, we expect somewhere between 5053%. That is a wider bandwidth than we typically apply, but that really is as a result of the uncertainty when it comes to tariffs. So both what is the tariff situation and also how does it get allocated.

[Roger Dassen, Executive VP & CFO at ASML]

Of course, short term, there are some uncertainties there. So that's why we chose to have a wider bandwidth for gross margin this quarter.

[Jim Kavanagh, VP Investor Relations at ASML]

And then with that in mind, how are you looking at the whole year from a gross margin point of view?

[Roger Dassen, Executive VP & CFO at ASML]

Yes. So first quarter, '50 '4 percent. Second quarter, as I just said, between 5053%. We do expect the second half of the year, second half year, to be a little bit lower in terms of gross margin. There's a number of reasons for that.

[Roger Dassen, Executive VP & CFO at ASML]

As you know, and Christophe talked about it, about High NA systems that we're in the process of shipping. We do expect the second half to be stronger when it comes to revenue recognition than the first half. And as you know, High NA is still margin dilutive. So therefore, we expect a negative impact on gross margin in the second half as a result of that in comparison to the first half. We also expect a little bit less upgrade business in the second half in comparison to the first half.

[Roger Dassen, Executive VP & CFO at ASML]

And also, as we just said, we have the uncertainty when it comes to tariffs. If you take it all together, again, with the caveat of the uncertainty around tariffs that we need to mention, we continue to expect the gross margin between 5153% for the whole year.

[Jim Kavanagh, VP Investor Relations at ASML]

Then switching to share buybacks, so that we ended the year 2024 with a lot cash. We executed some share buyback in Q1. So can you provide a little bit more detail on the plans around returning cash to shareholders for the rest of the year?

[Roger Dassen, Executive VP & CFO at ASML]

So indeed strong share buyback in the first quarter, '2 point '7 billion worth of shares were bought back in Q1. When it comes to dividends, we paid an interim dividend in the January per ordinary share. Our proposal to the AGM is to pay a final dividend of €1.84 per ordinary share. If you combine that all, that would get you to €6.4 per ordinary share as the total dividend over the year 2024.

[Jim Kavanagh, VP Investor Relations at ASML]

Christoph, then maybe one last question is if you can give us a little bit of a forward looking view on how you see the market, etcetera, beyond 2025?

[Christophe Fouquet, President, CEO & Member of Management Board at ASML]

Well, I think as I said, so first AI has been very strong and has driven the industry in the last few quarters. We still see a lot of strengths in AI. In fact, some of the demand for this year, of course, but also for next year So that's very encouraging. Now if we had to that the discussion with our customer points to 2025 and 2026 to be both a growth year as we explained in previous discussion.

[Christophe Fouquet, President, CEO & Member of Management Board at ASML]

Now of course Roger went into the details. There's this new uncertainty around tariff and like many experts, many businesses are explaining this is of course something that we don't know how to quantify yet. But this is adding definitely uncertainty on the long term. Now if we look at the market itself, we expect a shift towards more advanced technology. This is true for logic.

[Christophe Fouquet, President, CEO & Member of Management Board at ASML]

This is true for DRAM. And as we explained at Capital Market Day, these are basically technologies that will require more advanced lithography. Also explain, it's very very important that the progress we have made on the March and INA bring our customer the technology they need to switch more and more layer from multi patterning to single exposed UV and this is of course a good thing when it comes to litho intensity. With all of that Jim, so we feel that we are making a very good step towards our guidance given at the Capital Market Day November for 2,030 with a range of revenue between EUR44 million and EUR60 million and a gross margin range between 5660%.

[Jim Kavanagh, VP Investor Relations at ASML]

Thank you, Roger. Thank you, Christophe. And with that, I'd like to remind you all that we will host our Annual General Meeting on April 23, and I hope to see all our shareholders there.

Participants

Executives

• Jim Kavanagh, VP Investor Relations
• Roger Dassen, Executive VP & CFO
• Christophe Fouquet, President, CEO & Member of Management Board