Valero Energy Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
April 24, 2025
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Operator

and welcome to the Valero Energy Corp. First Quarter twenty twenty five Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

Operator

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host Homer Buller, VP of Investor Relations and Finance. Thank you. You may begin.

Homer Bhullar
Homer Bhullar
VP, IR & Finance at Valero Energy

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Valero Energy Corporation's first quarter twenty twenty five earnings conference call. With me today are Lane Riggs, our Chairman, CEO and President Jason Fraser, our Executive Vice President and CFO Gary Simmons, our Executive Vice President and COO Rich Walsh, our Executive Vice President and General Counsel and several other members of Valero's senior management team. If you have not received the earnings release and would like a copy, you can find one on our website at investorvalero.com. Also attached to the earnings release are tables that provide additional financial information on our business segments and reconciliations and disclosures for adjusted financial metrics mentioned on this call. If you have any questions after reviewing these tables, please feel free to contact our Investor Relations team after the call.

Homer Bhullar
Homer Bhullar
VP, IR & Finance at Valero Energy

I would now like to direct your attention to the forward looking statement disclaimer contained in the press release. In summary, it says that statements in the press release and on this conference call that state the company's or management's expectations or predictions of the future are forward looking statements intended to be covered by the Safe Harbor provisions under federal securities laws. There are many factors that could cause actual results to differ from our expectations, including those we've described in our earnings release and filings with the SEC. Now, I'll turn the call over to Lane for opening remarks.

Lane Riggs
Lane Riggs
CEO, President & Chairman of the Board at Valero Energy

Thank you, Homer, and good morning, everyone. I am pleased to report that we delivered positive results for the first quarter despite heavy maintenance activity across our refining system and a tough margin environment in the renewable diesel segment. This is a credit to the strength and discipline of our operations, optimization and commercial teams. Refining margins improved through the quarter with U. S.

Lane Riggs
Lane Riggs
CEO, President & Chairman of the Board at Valero Energy

Light product demand slightly higher than last year and product inventories below the same period last year. On the financial side, we continue to honor our commitment to shareholder returns with a strong payout ratio of 73% in the first quarter. And in January, our Board approved a 6% increase to the quarterly cash dividend further demonstrating our strong financial position. We continue to progress the FCC unit optimization project at St. Charles that will enable the refinery to increase the yield of high value products including high octane alkylates.

Lane Riggs
Lane Riggs
CEO, President & Chairman of the Board at Valero Energy

The project is estimated to cost $230,000,000 and is expected to start up in 2026 and we are pursuing other short cycle high return optimization projects around our existing refining assets. Looking ahead, we expect tight product supply and demand balances and low product inventories support refining fundamentals ahead of the driving season. Longer term, product demand is expected to exceed supply as there are limited announced capacity additions beyond 2025. In closing, we remain focused on the things that we can control, pursuing excellence in operations, deploying capital with an uncompromising focus on return and honoring our commitment to stockholder returns. Our commitment remains underpinned by a strong balance sheet that provides us plenty of operational and financial flexibility.

Lane Riggs
Lane Riggs
CEO, President & Chairman of the Board at Valero Energy

So with that Homer, I'll hand the call back to you.

Homer Bhullar
Homer Bhullar
VP, IR & Finance at Valero Energy

Thanks, Lane. For the first quarter of twenty twenty five, we incurred a net loss attributable to Valero stockholders of $595,000,000 or $1.9 per share compared to net income of $1,200,000,000 or $3.75 per share for the first quarter of twenty twenty four. Excluding the $1,100,000,000 pretax or $877,000,000 after tax asset impairment loss related to the West Coast assets, adjusted net income attributable to Valero stockholders was $282,000,000 or $0.89 per share for the first quarter of twenty twenty five compared to $1,300,000,000 or $3.84 per share for the first quarter of twenty twenty four. The refining segment reported an operating loss of $530,000,000 for the first quarter of twenty twenty five compared to operating income of $1,700,000,000 for the first quarter of twenty twenty four. Adjusted operating income was $6.00 $5,000,000 for the first quarter of twenty twenty five compared to $1,800,000,000 for the first quarter of twenty twenty four.

Homer Bhullar
Homer Bhullar
VP, IR & Finance at Valero Energy

Refining throughput volumes in the first quarter of twenty twenty five averaged 2,800,000 barrels per day or 89% throughput capacity utilization. Refining cash operating expenses were $5.7 per barrel in the first quarter of twenty twenty five. The renewable diesel segment reported an operating loss of $141,000,000 for the first quarter of twenty twenty five compared to operating income of $190,000,000 for the first quarter of twenty twenty four. Renewable diesel sales volumes averaged 2,400,000 gallons per day in the first quarter of twenty twenty five. The ethanol segment reported $20,000,000 of operating income for the first quarter of twenty twenty five compared to $10,000,000 for the first quarter of twenty twenty four.

Homer Bhullar
Homer Bhullar
VP, IR & Finance at Valero Energy

Adjusted operating income was $39,000,000 for the first quarter of twenty twenty four. Ethanol production volumes averaged 4,500,000 gallons per day in the first quarter of twenty twenty five. For the first quarter of twenty twenty five, G and A expenses were $261,000,000 net interest expense was $137,000,000 depreciation and amortization expense was $691,000,000 and income tax benefit was $265,000,000 Net cash provided by operating activities was $952,000,000 in the first quarter of twenty twenty five. Included in this amount was $157,000,000 favorable change in working capital and $67,000,000 of adjusted net cash used in operating activities associated with the other joint venture member share of DGD. Excluding these items, adjusted net cash provided by operating activities was $862,000,000 in the first quarter of twenty twenty five.

Homer Bhullar
Homer Bhullar
VP, IR & Finance at Valero Energy

Regarding investing activities, we made $660,000,000 of capital investments in the first quarter of twenty twenty five, of which $582,000,000 was for sustaining the business including costs for turnarounds, catalysts and regulatory compliance and the balance was for growing the business. Excluding capital investments attributable to the other joint venture member share of DGD and other variable interest entities, capital investments attributable to Valero were $611,000,000 in the first quarter of twenty twenty five. Moving to financing activities, we returned $633,000,000 to our stockholders in the first quarter of twenty twenty five, of which $356,000,000 was paid as dividends and $277,000,000 was for the purchase of approximately 2,100,000.0 shares of common stock, resulting in a payout ratio of 73% for the quarter. On January 16, we announced a 6% increase to the quarterly cash dividend on common stock from 1.07 to $1.13 per share delivering on our commitment of a growing dividend. With respect to our balance sheet, we issued $650,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 5.15% senior notes due 02/1930 in February and repaid the outstanding principal balances of $189,000,000 of 3.65% senior notes that matured in March and $251,000,000 of 2.85% senior notes that matured in April.

Homer Bhullar
Homer Bhullar
VP, IR & Finance at Valero Energy

We ended the quarter with $8,500,000,000 of total debt, 2,300,000,000.0 of total finance lease obligations and $4,600,000,000 of cash and cash equivalents. The debt to capitalization ratio net of cash and cash equivalents was 19% as of 03/31/2025. And we ended the quarter well capitalized with $5,300,000,000 of available liquidity excluding cash. Turning to guidance, we still expect capital investments attributable to Valero for 2025 to be approximately $2,000,000,000 which includes expenditures for turnarounds, catalysts, regulatory compliance and joint venture investments. About $1,600,000,000 of that is allocated to sustaining the business and the balance to growth.

Homer Bhullar
Homer Bhullar
VP, IR & Finance at Valero Energy

For modeling our second quarter operations, we expect refining throughput volumes to fall within the following ranges. Gulf Coast at 1,750,000 to 1,800,000 barrels per day, Mid Continent at 385,000 to 405,000 barrels per day, West Coast at two and forty thousand to 260,000 barrels per day and North Atlantic at 320,000 to 340,000 barrels per day. We expect refining cash operating expenses in the second quarter to be approximately $5.15 per barrel. With respect to the renewable diesel segment, we now expect sales volumes to be approximately 1,100,000,000 gallons in 2025 reflecting lower production volumes due to economics. Operating expenses in 2025 should be $0.53 per gallon, which includes $0.24 per gallon for non cash costs such as depreciation and amortization.

Homer Bhullar
Homer Bhullar
VP, IR & Finance at Valero Energy

Our ethanol segment is expected to produce 4,600,000 gallons per day in the second quarter. Operating expenses should average $0.41 per gallon, which includes $05 per gallon for non cash costs such as depreciation and amortization. For the second quarter, net interest expense should be about 135,000,000 Total depreciation and amortization expense in the second quarter should be approximately $780,000,000 which includes $100,000,000 of incremental depreciation expense related to our plan to cease refining operations at our Benicia refinery by the April 2026. We expect this incremental amount related to the Benicia refinery to be included in D and A for the next four quarters, resulting in a quarterly earnings impact of approximately zero two five dollars per share based on current shares outstanding. For 2025, we still expect G and A expenses to be approximately $985,000,000 That concludes our opening remarks.

Homer Bhullar
Homer Bhullar
VP, IR & Finance at Valero Energy

Before we open the call to questions, please limit each turn in the Q and A to two questions. If you have more than two questions, please rejoin the queue as time permits to ensure other callers have time to ask their questions.

Operator

Thank you. We will now be conducting a question and answer session. Our first questions come from the line of Manav Gupta with UBS. Please proceed with your questions.

Manav Gupta
Manav Gupta
Executive Director at UBS Group

Good morning, guys. Very resilient earnings in a tough macro. I have two questions for Gary. I'll ask them upfront in the interest of time. So Gary, there's a lot of chatter around here on tariffs and recessions and whatever.

Manav Gupta
Manav Gupta
Executive Director at UBS Group

But what are you seeing in terms of the market dynamics, supply demand out there for refined products? And the second one is, can you talk a little bit about the crude differentials and the quality discounts given everything which is going around OPEC probably raising volumes, land is shutting down and probably tariffs. So if you could address those two questions. Thank you.

Gary Simmons
Gary Simmons
Executive VP & COO at Valero Energy

Good morning, Manav. This is Gary. Happy to address that and show you kind of talk about what we're seeing on the commercial side of the business. Sales through our wholesale system were down in the first quarter a few percent from typical historic levels. Our product exports were up year over year, but down versus fourth quarter levels.

Gary Simmons
Gary Simmons
Executive VP & COO at Valero Energy

None of this is really a reflection of demand, just more due to the heavy refinery maintenance we had during the quarter. If you look at the seven day average trends to our wholesale system, we're back to just below that 1,000,000 barrel a day level. We're showing a 1% year over year increase in gasoline sales and a 6% year over year increase in diesel volumes. Diesel sales have really been supported by higher agricultural demand as we started planting season in the Mid Continent. If you look at the DOE demand data for total light products, it indicates a year over year increase in total light product demand in the neighborhood of 300,000 barrels a day, which we believe is pretty accurate.

Gary Simmons
Gary Simmons
Executive VP & COO at Valero Energy

It looks to us like the DOE is under reporting gasoline demand a little. If you look at the ethanol blending data, it would indicate gasoline demand flat to slightly up from last year, jet demand year to date slightly up and then a really nice bump in diesel demand driven largely by the cold temperatures we experienced early in the year. Globally, I think we've seen stronger light product demand as well and more than was expected. The consultants data varies greatly here, but if you take an average of the data, it would show a year over year increase in total light product demand globally of around 1,000,000 barrels a day, which we think is pretty close. Our data shows we had about 640,000 barrels a day in new refining capacity come online during the quarter, but then we had two refineries shut down with a combined capacity of 410,000 barrels a day.

Gary Simmons
Gary Simmons
Executive VP & COO at Valero Energy

So total light product demand globally up 1,000,000 barrels a day, 230,000 barrels a day of net refinery capacity additions and then a little lower refinery utilizations due to turnaround. So you combine all that and you would expect to see some inventory draws, which is what we've seen. Total light product inventories drawn back to the point where once again below the five year average range, currently 36,000,000 barrels below the five year average, 8,000,000 barrels below where we were last year at this time. Gasoline inventory is drawn down to the bottom part of the five year average range. Jet inventories are now below the five year average levels.

Gary Simmons
Gary Simmons
Executive VP & COO at Valero Energy

Diesel inventory is well below five year average range, below last year and now approaching the historically low levels we saw in 2022 and 2023. As we head into driving season, gasoline fundamentals look constructive. Gasoline inventory toward the bottom of the five year average range, demand at or slightly above last year. West Coast gasoline is a twelve year low for this time of year. Unemployment remains low, which historically translates into good gasoline demand.

Gary Simmons
Gary Simmons
Executive VP & COO at Valero Energy

And then the strength in European gasoline is really keeping their barrels in Europe versus the normal Transatlantic export flow into New York Harbor. Additionally, that strength in European gasoline is opening up more exports for U. S. Gulf Coast refineries into Latin America. Diesel looks very strong.

Gary Simmons
Gary Simmons
Executive VP & COO at Valero Energy

We had good demand early in the year due to cold weather. We've seen imports as well as domestic production of renewable and biodiesel fall off, which has created incremental demand for refinery produced diesel. Despite the fact that we're at or near record lows on total diesel inventory in The U. S. That we've seen in 2022 and 2023, the arb to ship on Explorer from The U.

Gary Simmons
Gary Simmons
Executive VP & COO at Valero Energy

S. Gulf Coast to the Mid Continent is open due to the strong agricultural demand. The arb to ship on Colonial to New York Harbor is open. The arb to ship from The U. S.

Gary Simmons
Gary Simmons
Executive VP & COO at Valero Energy

Gulf Coast to Europe is open and the arb to ship to Latin America is open. So when you look at record low inventories and still have open arbs to ship product domestically and globally from The U. S. Gulf Coast, I think that speaks well for diesel not just domestically but also globally. VGO remains fairly expensive indicating tightness in that market which likely says FCCs and hydrocrackers have to compete for incremental VGO barrels.

Gary Simmons
Gary Simmons
Executive VP & COO at Valero Energy

So again, the fundamentals look very strong and have exceeded our expectations so far for the year. I think when you go through all this data, it's actually surprising we don't see stronger refinery margins. Based on the strong fundamentals, I'd say refinery margins are undervalued. I think right now, it's the uncertainty around the economy. People have made assumptions about what happens with the economy and its impact on demand for our products.

Gary Simmons
Gary Simmons
Executive VP & COO at Valero Energy

And those assumptions are really driving the market right now. Thus far, the economy looks like it's been fairly resistant, but we'll have to see. All of you guys probably have better insight to that than what I do. Turning to the crude differentials. It's been hard to really have clarity on what's going to happen with the crude differentials in the quarter.

Gary Simmons
Gary Simmons
Executive VP & COO at Valero Energy

A lot of the discussions on tariffs and sanctions have certainly made that hard to see where the direction that's going. I think when you look at bullish factors, certainly the Lyondell refinery shutting down in The U. S. Gulf Coast to put 200,000 to 250,000 barrels a day of additional heavy sour barrels on the market. We saw a record Canadian production in the first quarter and it looks like Canadian production continues to ramp up.

Gary Simmons
Gary Simmons
Executive VP & COO at Valero Energy

And then we've had the announcement of 500,000 barrels of a day additional OPEC plus production. News yesterday was that maybe even higher than the 500,000 barrels a day. Offsetting that somewhat, we continue to see Mexican production decline a little and then the potential for sanctions impacting Iranian and Venezuelan production. But you combine all that and I think the likelihood is that you see more medium and heavy sour barrels on the market, which speaks well to the differentials moving forward. I don't think there's much room for them to come in any because medium and heavy sours are already trading at economic parity to light sweet.

Gary Simmons
Gary Simmons
Executive VP & COO at Valero Energy

And in fact, we're seeing economic signals approach the point where you would back off of heavy feedstocks and even spare coking capacity.

Manav Gupta
Manav Gupta
Executive Director at UBS Group

Thank you so much.

Operator

Thank you. Our next questions come from the line of Roger Read with Wells Fargo. Please proceed with your questions.

Roger Read
Roger Read
Senior Energy Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities

Yes. Thank you. Good morning.

Lane Riggs
Lane Riggs
CEO, President & Chairman of the Board at Valero Energy

Good morning, Roger.

Roger Read
Roger Read
Senior Energy Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities

Good

Roger Read
Roger Read
Senior Energy Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities

morning, everybody. Just to come back on the guidance just to for the second quarter, a little light relative to what I was anticipating a little I guess you could even say a little light relative to a year ago. Is this a function of maintenance? Because it seems to run a little counter to the explanation you were just offering there Gary.

Greg Bram
Greg Bram
Vice President- Refining Services at Valero Energy

Hey Roger, this is Greg. Yes, it is maintenance and you can see it in a couple of the particular regions North Atlantic and Mid Con you can see those quite a bit lower and that's all maintenance driven. In the Gulf Coast and the West Coast where most of the maintenance is complete, we're getting those kind of back to what you would typically see for throughput.

Roger Read
Roger Read
Senior Energy Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities

Okay. And then Homer, I think this is just to clarify with you. When we talked about maintenance before, you've pointed out there can be a difference between crude unit maintenance and downstream maintenance. So presuming the guidance is crude unit maintenance, are we looking at the ability to run some of the downstream units? Or should we take this at face value on volumes?

Greg Bram
Greg Bram
Vice President- Refining Services at Valero Energy

Roger, it's Greg again. It is when you see those big throughput impacts, that tends to tell you that's the front end of the plant that's shutting down. We may try to run some downstream stuff, but it really depends on being able to get feedstocks into some of those particular markets. You think about the Mid Continent particular, it's hard to bring other feedstocks in when you've got the front end of the plants down. So you probably don't see as much of that in those regions, North Atlantic as well as you would see in like the Gulf Coast.

Roger Read
Roger Read
Senior Energy Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities

Great. That would have been my interpretation as well. Okay. Thank you. I'll turn it back.

Operator

You. Next questions come from the line of Ryan Todd with Piper Sandler. Please proceed with your questions.

Ryan Todd
Ryan Todd
Senior Research Analyst at Piper Sandler Companies

Great. Thanks. Can you walk through the decision to close the Peninsula refinery? Why now? What's changed?

Ryan Todd
Ryan Todd
Senior Research Analyst at Piper Sandler Companies

And how should we think about the future risk to or the environment for the Wilmington Refinery?

Lane Riggs
Lane Riggs
CEO, President & Chairman of the Board at Valero Energy

Hey, Ryan, it's Lane. So when you think about the West Coast, California has been pursuing policies to move away from fossil fuels for really for the past twenty years and the consequence of that is the regulatory and enforcement environment is the most stringent and difficult of anywhere else in North America. And so if you sort of think about what's happened on the West Coast since COVID, you've had several refineries closed. Have another one closed this year. So then you start thinking about our asset base and we're looking at the difficulty and all that.

Lane Riggs
Lane Riggs
CEO, President & Chairman of the Board at Valero Energy

So Venetia operates in the more difficult part of California with respect to the regulatory and enforcement side of this. And then on top of that Venetia costs considerably more to maintain versus Wilmington.

Ryan Todd
Ryan Todd
Senior Research Analyst at Piper Sandler Companies

Okay. Thank you. And then maybe shifting to renewable diesel markets. Can you maybe walk through where we are on the I mean, the markets are trying to reach a new equilibrium under the new PTC regime. Can you maybe walk through where you think we are on the path to normalization and the timing to get there?

Ryan Todd
Ryan Todd
Senior Research Analyst at Piper Sandler Companies

And then maybe within that, I know you booked some 45z credits in the first quarter. How much should we expect to see you book? Should we expect to see that improve going forward from here? So I guess maybe just some thoughts on how that market normalizes and maybe improves over the course of the year?

Eric Fisher
Eric Fisher
Senior Vice President of Product Supply & Trading and Wholesale at Valero Energy

Yes. This is Eric. As you look at the first quarter, '1 thing that we should be clear about is that we had catalyst changes on DGD-one and DGD-two. So you had a pretty significant volume impact in the first quarter that reduced a lot of the margin opportunity for the segment. But as you said, we got PTC guidance in January and in February, we pivoted both operations and our contracts with customers in order to begin capturing the PTC.

Eric Fisher
Eric Fisher
Senior Vice President of Product Supply & Trading and Wholesale at Valero Energy

So we didn't get a complete capture in the first quarter. We did get capture on NAFTA and SNF, but only about half of the RD was able to be captured because it took us a little while to get those contracts and operations shifted over. Going forward, we see, we should get 100% of eligible credits on PTC for all three of those product lines. Now there are a lot of feedstock eligibility issues. So it's not 100% of our full volume.

Eric Fisher
Eric Fisher
Senior Vice President of Product Supply & Trading and Wholesale at Valero Energy

It will be 100% of the eligible feedstocks. And so as that market is figuring out where the net balance is going to be between tariffs, PTC eligibility and just call it flat price, we still see the market moving around there. But going forward, we think we've got that solved. So as I said before, if you look at the shift from the $1 blenders tax credit to this CI based PTC, everyone knew there was going to be a drop in profitability going from the previous program to the current program. For PTC on waste oils, which are still the most favorite feedstocks, that's $0.50 to $0.60 a gallon on domestic primarily domestic feedstocks.

Eric Fisher
Eric Fisher
Senior Vice President of Product Supply & Trading and Wholesale at Valero Energy

Foreign feedstocks into SAF still count, but foreign feedstocks into RD do not. And so we have kind of a unique position there that as you look at your product allocations and your feedstocks, you have to take all of that into account. The backdrop the other backdrop you have here is, we've seen a big drop in domestic production as Gary mentioned in his comments on the macro. You've also seen a big drop in foreign imports. So the overall D4 RIN production has dropped pretty significantly.

Eric Fisher
Eric Fisher
Senior Vice President of Product Supply & Trading and Wholesale at Valero Energy

Combine that with this conversation that a lot of trade groups have gone to the EPA and asked for an increase of the RIN obligation and beginning in 2026 and 2027 into 5,250,000,000 gallons for D4 RINs. So you have a drop in production plus this anticipated increase in obligation. There is some potential tailwind out there in the future at some point if that gets proposed to the EPA and the EPA approves that probably sometime in the third or fourth quarter of this year. So you've got a little bit of upside potential there. The other one that's that may be more or sooner to be revealed is the California LCFS program.

Eric Fisher
Eric Fisher
Senior Vice President of Product Supply & Trading and Wholesale at Valero Energy

Those obligations that were pushed off initially have been resubmitted to the OAL for approval. So in the next thirty days or so, we should hear from California on whether or not they're going to increase their LCFS obligation by 9% going back to Jan one. That should put another potential increase of LCFS prices on the horizon. So hard to predict what California will do on that, but that is the timeframe for when we should get an answer yes or no on LCFS modifications. So if you look at all of this and think about, okay, how does this all net out?

Eric Fisher
Eric Fisher
Senior Vice President of Product Supply & Trading and Wholesale at Valero Energy

We have seen the D4 RIN move, the LCFS price has not. On the D4 RIN, the increase is not enough to offset in the veg oil space. It only gets $0.10 to $0.20 a gallon on the PTC. You need RINs, you still need RINs to go up another $0.04 0 or $0.50 in order to offset that $0.80 loss that veg oil is seeing which is why you're seeing a big drop in domestic BD production. So as the market tries to figure this out, the D4 RIN has to move up substantially, whether that driver is a continued drop in production or imports and or this anticipated increase beginning in the 2026 obligation, that's going to set what the overall volume looks like in terms of performance versus overall obligation.

Eric Fisher
Eric Fisher
Senior Vice President of Product Supply & Trading and Wholesale at Valero Energy

So it looks like in 2Q, we're starting to see some of this potentially improve. I think it's still more of a the upside looks more like a back half of the year for the RD segment. And then I think for our platform specifically, which is still the most advantaged platform when it comes to CI market access and just overall ability to demonstrate compliance into all these different programs. We still see we'll capture the PTC and we'll be the ones that can optimize between the feedstocks that are most desired into these compliance programs and then whether or not they're covered by the PTC.

Ryan Todd
Ryan Todd
Senior Research Analyst at Piper Sandler Companies

Great. Thanks for all the detail.

Operator

Thank you. Our next questions come from the line of Theresa Chen with Barclays. Please proceed with your questions.

Theresa Chen
Theresa Chen
Senior Analyst at Barclays

Hi. Eric, just to follow-up on that last question. So it sounds like the drop in production and imports is structural absent recovery in deforeigns and maybe more to come on that front. From a supply and competitive landscape perspective, do you see some of that supply creeping back over time? Or how does this settle out as the market tries to find equilibrium?

Eric Fisher
Eric Fisher
Senior Vice President of Product Supply & Trading and Wholesale at Valero Energy

I think if you look at or maybe I'll put it in context of this RIN obligation. At the current 3,300,000,000 gallons versus what we've seen in the last couple of years, the RD and BD segment production capacity could far exceed that RIN obligation. And so what was really keeping a lot of that volume flowing was the BTC. And so when you take the BTC out, then suddenly as we've always said, the BTC is what kept the marginal producer operating. So we see a lot of those and this is public.

Eric Fisher
Eric Fisher
Senior Vice President of Product Supply & Trading and Wholesale at Valero Energy

There's a lot of announcements of BD and RD operations that are either slowing down or taking a pause in operations. And so everyone is looking to see when that marginal producer will come back into the market, because right now there's not an incentive for them to run, particularly any kind of veg oil based BD or RD. So if you see the obligation increase or you see the RIN bank tightened to the point where we are physically short, I think this year we are still long in the D4 market, but it is starting to tighten and you can kind of see this in the D4, D6 RIN spread, which is sometimes reaching $0.10 a gallon on the differential there. So there's some anticipation and recognition of this. I think as that continues through the year, if you see RIN prices react, like I said, it's got to be $0.04 0 or $0.50 additional move from what it's already moved.

Eric Fisher
Eric Fisher
Senior Vice President of Product Supply & Trading and Wholesale at Valero Energy

So we've seen D4 RINs go from the 60s up until the 90s sometimes over $1 That is still not enough to incentivize the BD producer that used to get a dollar. And so how that will rationalize is I think everyone will and there's no question from an ag standpoint, the farmers want to run their BD units and their soybean oil. Otherwise, you're going see soybean oil continue to get stranded from a fuel market. So I think it's really waiting to see if that RIN is going to move to offset the loss of the transition from the BTC to the PTC. I think that's the only way you're going to see incremental production come on in the back half of the year.

Theresa Chen
Theresa Chen
Senior Analyst at Barclays

That's helpful. Thank you. And on Mexico within the refining segment, would you be able to provide an update on your suspension from the registry of importers? What led to this? And what is the path forward from here?

Gary Simmons
Gary Simmons
Executive VP & COO at Valero Energy

Yes. Theresa, this is Gary. If you haven't heard, I'm happy to announce that we have had our import permit reinstated. Go through a little of the history on April 9, we were notified by Mexico's Tax Administration Service that our import permit was being temporarily suspended. We were told at the time that customs in Mexico had some questions as a result of an investigation that they had done that we weren't privy to.

Gary Simmons
Gary Simmons
Executive VP & COO at Valero Energy

Since we began our operations in Mexico, we maintained a policy of full cooperation with all the authorities there, implemented rigorous traceability and security controls throughout the supply chain. So it was disappointing to us that our permit was suspended, while at any prior notification or opportunity to clarify and the timing of all this right before the Easter holiday was especially bad. Nevertheless, once we had the opportunity to reach out to the stakeholders and countries, sit down and go through all the records and data with customs in Mexico, the custom authority recognized that Valero was in full compliance of our import reporting and tax obligations, and we were quickly exonerated of any wrongdoing. So although this is all unfortunate and created significant supply disruption for our customers, it is part of an effort in Mexico to limit the importation of illegal fuel, which is an effort we very much applaud and will positively impact our business down there going forward.

Theresa Chen
Theresa Chen
Senior Analyst at Barclays

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next questions come from the line of Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your questions.

Neil Mehta
Neil Mehta
Head of Americas Natural Resources Equity Research at Goldman Sachs

Good morning, Lee and team. You guys have done a great job of continuing to return cash to shareholders and you've talked about cash balances of 4,000,000,000 to $5,000,000,000 and I think you're at 4,600,000,000.0 right now. So just talk about in this period of macro uncertainty, how

Neil Mehta
Neil Mehta
Head of Americas Natural Resources Equity Research at Goldman Sachs

are

Neil Mehta
Neil Mehta
Head of Americas Natural Resources Equity Research at Goldman Sachs

you thinking about taking advantage of the balance sheet to shrink the share count?

Homer Bhullar
Homer Bhullar
VP, IR & Finance at Valero Energy

Hey, Neil, it's Homer. Yes, you're right. I mean, given the strength of our balance sheet and our current cash position, we have plenty of flexibility. And we continue to lean into buybacks with excess free cash flow going to shareholder returns. In fact, as you can as I'm sure you're aware, we've drawn down excess cash the last three quarters as we've guided to.

Homer Bhullar
Homer Bhullar
VP, IR & Finance at Valero Energy

And hopefully, this quarter demonstrates the resilience of the portfolio even in the low margin environment. So I think looking forward, assuming the balance sheet is strong as it is now and like we've said in the past, where our CapEx and dividend are covered, that commitment to shareholder returns should remain a floor and any sort of excess free cash flow will continue to go towards share buybacks.

Neil Mehta
Neil Mehta
Head of Americas Natural Resources Equity Research at Goldman Sachs

Okay. Thank you. And then the follow-up Gary to your comments about just inventories for diesel in particular distillate, it looks really tight relative to the margins. So can you speak specifically to that product as you think about the distillate pool, how you're thinking about the outlook for jet as it feeds into that? A lot of moving pieces in diesel, but it feels like it's ground zero for the refining debate.

Gary Simmons
Gary Simmons
Executive VP & COO at Valero Energy

Yes, I agree. Again, kind of some of the things I pointed out, I mean, it's kind of amazing when you're close to historic lows on diesel inventory in The United States and yet we have open arms to export to Latin America and Europe. It tells you both those regions are very short diesel as well. On jet, we saw very strong nominations the first part of the year. You're starting to see some of the airlines talk about weaker jet demand moving forward.

Gary Simmons
Gary Simmons
Executive VP & COO at Valero Energy

We haven't seen signs of that yet. Historically though, when people start to switch and not take flights for their summer vacation plans, it translates into higher gasoline demand.

Neil Mehta
Neil Mehta
Head of Americas Natural Resources Equity Research at Goldman Sachs

Thanks, Kier.

Operator

Thank you. Our next questions come from the line of John Royall with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your questions.

John Royall
John Royall
Executive Director at JP Morgan

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. So my first question is a follow-up on your 2Q guide. Wayne mentioned operational flexibility in his opener. Should we think about throughputs as relatively locked in sitting at the April?

John Royall
John Royall
Executive Director at JP Morgan

Could we see some economic adjustments if this downside demand case were to materialize and reflect more in spot cracks?

Greg Bram
Greg Bram
Vice President- Refining Services at Valero Energy

John, it's Greg. I would tell you that's how we see the quarter shaping up as we look at it now. Obviously, as we always do, we evaluate market conditions and adjust our plans accordingly. But I think if you think about what Gary just shared kind of the macro view, it'd be hard to imagine in this short term period, this next few months that we would see ourselves moving to some kind of a lower throughput on an economic basis. So I think you can probably say this is where we expect to be.

Greg Bram
Greg Bram
Vice President- Refining Services at Valero Energy

And if things improve market wise, we're obviously going to continue to maximize throughput, maximize margin to capture as much value as we can.

Lane Riggs
Lane Riggs
CEO, President & Chairman of the Board at Valero Energy

So really our lower guidance is a function of maintenance, not some outlook that we think there's lower demand in the future.

Greg Bram
Greg Bram
Vice President- Refining Services at Valero Energy

Yes, absolutely. And maybe just on that, we always talk about doing a lot of maintenance in the first quarter. If you think about the regions we're talking about, the Mid Continent and the North Atlantic, those aren't regions that really lend themselves from a weather perspective to doing a lot of work early in the year. You kind of wait till you've got a little better weather, take less risk from that standpoint. So that's why you see a bit more work in the second quarter than you might typically see out of us.

Greg Bram
Greg Bram
Vice President- Refining Services at Valero Energy

And you don't see a lot in the Gulf Coast where we tend to do that in the first quarter.

John Royall
John Royall
Executive Director at JP Morgan

That's very helpful. Thank you. And then my follow-up is just another one on Venetia and forgive me if I'm overanalyzing this, but just reading the wording on the press release, it struck us as maybe not 100% definitive in terms of the plan. So maybe my question is, is the door open for the state or the city to make any changes or concessions that could cause you to think differently about your plans for Benicia? Do you expect that there will be some sort of discussion there?

Rich Walsh
Rich Walsh
EVP & General Counsel at Valero Energy

Yes. This is Rich Walsh. Let try to answer that. I mean just to be clear our current intent is to close the refinery and obviously there's been some initial concern from the state leadership and we've already had meetings with the CEC. We're working with them to minimize the impacts that would result from the loss of the refinery.

Rich Walsh
Rich Walsh
EVP & General Counsel at Valero Energy

I do think there's a genuine interest in California to avoid the closure, but it's also a really very complex regulatory and policy driven environment that we're dealing with. And if you understand that challenge and how significant it is, I think you need to factor that in. But yes, we are having discussions with the state. But our intent right now is to close the refinery.

John Royall
John Royall
Executive Director at JP Morgan

Very clear. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next questions come from the line of Doug Leggate with Wolfe Research. Please proceed with your questions.

Doug Leggate
Managing Director - Senior Research Analyst at Wolfe Research

Thanks. Good morning everyone. Lane, I'm sorry to pound on the West Coast, but I also have a question on that, if you don't mind. The press release, you well, sorry, I feel like it's been hammered pretty heavily this morning already. But in the press release, you did mention that you also had impaired Wilmington.

Doug Leggate
Managing Director - Senior Research Analyst at Wolfe Research

I think that was the implication of the language. Can you talk about what the prognosis is for Wilmington as part of this overall debate over the viability, the future viability of the West Coast assets? And I've got a follow-up on the same topic please.

Lane Riggs
Lane Riggs
CEO, President & Chairman of the Board at Valero Energy

Well, I'll start I'll let Homer start to explain the impairment process, but and then I'll add to it. So go ahead.

Homer Bhullar
Homer Bhullar
VP, IR & Finance at Valero Energy

Yes. Doug, the impairment so obviously we performed an impairment asset on both of these assets based on the continued evaluation of strategic alternatives, right, which remains. But and based on the analysis, we obviously concluded that the current book value of the refinery was not recoverable. And so therefore, we revised it down to reflect the fair value of the assets, which resulted in an impairment loss, as you cited, both for Venetia and for Wilmington. In terms of the overall impairment, it was 1,130,000,000.00 of which about $900,000,000 was for Benicia Nine Zero One Million Dollars and Wilmington was $230,000,000

Doug Leggate
Managing Director - Senior Research Analyst at Wolfe Research

Okay. That's helpful. So my follow-up guys is really to think about implications going forward. And I don't know the extent to which you can share, but obviously presumably these are free cash flow negative otherwise you wouldn't be taking the impairment. So can you give some idea what the implications are for your capital spending going forward when Venetia does go offline and whether Wilmington is still free cash flow positive?

Doug Leggate
Managing Director - Senior Research Analyst at Wolfe Research

I'll leave it there. Thanks.

Greg Bram
Greg Bram
Vice President- Refining Services at Valero Energy

Doug, this is Greg. I'll take a shot at answering that the best I can. Others might jump in. But yes, so we don't tend to talk about refinery by refinery performance. But I think it's probably fair to say on the West Coast, if you look back over the last ten years, Venetia was generally higher operating expense, lower EBITDA, higher capital and then as a result, obviously lower cash flow compared to Wilmington.

Greg Bram
Greg Bram
Vice President- Refining Services at Valero Energy

So I'm not sure we'll break it down any more detail than that, but that would give you some sense for how those perform relative to each other. And then I think it's been mentioned, when you have a large turnaround in front of you, which is a large cash outlay and you think about how the facility has performed looking back, well, that's no guarantee of the future. It does give you some sense or cause you to pause as to whether or not this is the time to take different action, which is what you see us

Greg Bram
Greg Bram
Vice President- Refining Services at Valero Energy

doing.

Doug Leggate
Managing Director - Senior Research Analyst at Wolfe Research

Great. That's very helpful guys. Thanks so much. I'll take the rest offline.

Doug Leggate
Managing Director - Senior Research Analyst at Wolfe Research

Thank

Operator

you. Our next questions come from the line of Paul Cheng with Scotiabank. Please proceed with your questions.

Paul Cheng
Analyst at Scotiabank

Hey guys, good morning. I have to apologize because I want to ask slightly different angle on Wellington. Can you tell us that when was the last major turnaround that you did at Remington?

Lane Riggs
Lane Riggs
CEO, President & Chairman of the Board at Valero Energy

Go back and look. The biggest one

Lane Riggs
Lane Riggs
CEO, President & Chairman of the Board at Valero Energy

is the FCC. Okay. We just did it

Greg Bram
Greg Bram
Vice President- Refining Services at Valero Energy

Just here just recently, we did the FCC unit, Paul, if that's what you're looking for.

Paul Cheng
Analyst at Scotiabank

Yes. So I mean, should we assume that as a result, at least for the next two or three years, you do not have any major outlay that you will expect it for Remington? In other words, then whatever decision that you're going to make, this probably going to be post two or three years?

Homer Bhullar
Homer Bhullar
VP, IR & Finance at Valero Energy

Hey, Paul, nice try, but unfortunately, we can't comment on our future turnaround plans.

Paul Cheng
Analyst at Scotiabank

Okay. That's fair. Second question on SAS, maybe this is for production expectation in the second quarter based on the current margin for that? And also that what's the current timeline in plan for the second unit FID?

Eric Fisher
Eric Fisher
Senior Vice President of Product Supply & Trading and Wholesale at Valero Energy

Yes. So, second quarter, I would say we are still not in a max SAF mode. If you look at Europe, which the mandate there is still one of the primary outlets for SAF, We see HBO over SAF in the Arcus quote. So our last barrel economics are still looking at some barrels are more economic to put into an RD product into Europe. So but overall, we see growing interest in SAF.

Eric Fisher
Eric Fisher
Senior Vice President of Product Supply & Trading and Wholesale at Valero Energy

We see actually some growing interest in the voluntary markets with some companies that are remaining committed to their carbon reduction commitments. So we do see that SAP is continuing to grow and the contracts are continuing to grow. In terms of when we would look at a second unit, I think we still have to see how this market develops through the rest of this year. We see in The U. S, there's interest in The U.

Eric Fisher
Eric Fisher
Senior Vice President of Product Supply & Trading and Wholesale at Valero Energy

S. And like I said, particularly some of these corporations that are maybe looking to buy direct rather than through an airline. But until we see demand exceed our capacity and we get some certainty on an outlook in terms of policy, maybe going back to the LCFS and RIN comments I made earlier, it's hard. We have the engineering done to do the same project at St. Charles.

Eric Fisher
Eric Fisher
Senior Vice President of Product Supply & Trading and Wholesale at Valero Energy

But right now, I think we'll have to we'd have to wait and really see how this market develops before we did any further commitment from a certainty standpoint.

Paul Cheng
Analyst at Scotiabank

Can you help us understand the economic? Because I thought with PTC, you get a dollar per gallon for CEF. And so that should help to really move up the economic and assume you get some premium for 70 CEF comparing to Audi. So you think that even in today's economic and with the PTC, it's still not sufficient that for you to try to max out the set comparing to Audi?

Eric Fisher
Eric Fisher
Senior Vice President of Product Supply & Trading and Wholesale at Valero Energy

So that is correct. The PTC is not adequate by itself to justify the project. The other thing to keep in mind is when you are allocating, so if you have a unit that makes 50% RD, 50% SAF, you can't allocate all the feedstocks to one product. You have to allocate based on your product mix coming off the tower. And so what you see is given say a domestic feedstock, you have you'll get 50% of PTC on your SAF product and then 50% of your PTC on your RD product.

Eric Fisher
Eric Fisher
Senior Vice President of Product Supply & Trading and Wholesale at Valero Energy

You can't allocate 100% to SAF. So because of that split and the fact that half of the products you make gets a lower PTC, you have to look to SAF to carry more of the work in order to justify the project. And as I said before, the PTC is much lower compared to the BTC and that is reducing the overall RD margin. So if you think about if RD was breakeven and SAF was positive, then the SAF market has to be even stronger in order to meet your minimum 25% return, whereas before both products were positive. And so really what we're looking for is you've got to see the RD market become more attractive.

Eric Fisher
Eric Fisher
Senior Vice President of Product Supply & Trading and Wholesale at Valero Energy

And then I think you still have to see the SAP demand exceed our current capability before we would commit to a further project. But yes, on paper, it looks like it should work. But I think you've got to see the market actually create a pull before we would commit to doing that project.

Paul Cheng
Analyst at Scotiabank

Okay. Thank you.

Eric Fisher
Eric Fisher
Senior Vice President of Product Supply & Trading and Wholesale at Valero Energy

Thanks, Paul.

Operator

Thank you. Our next questions come from the line of Joe Lache with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your questions.

Joe Laetsch
Joe Laetsch
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Great. Thanks. Good morning and thanks for taking my questions. So I was hoping to get your perspective on PADD V going forward with one refinery closing this year, Venetia closing early next year. California is going to become more even more reliant on imports.

Joe Laetsch
Joe Laetsch
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Does this result in just a more volatile and probably higher margins to pull sufficient imports on the West Coast? Or how do you see it playing out?

Gary Simmons
Gary Simmons
Executive VP & COO at Valero Energy

Yes, this is Gary. Our view has been California will be potentially be short gasoline for several years with periods of higher import needs during turnarounds and unplanned outages. Diesel, the market looks well supplied, but the tighter supply demand balances will likely cause more volatility in the market when unplanned refinery outages occur. However, from what we've seen so far, these tend to be fairly short lived and only last until waterborne barrels can make their way into the market.

Joe Laetsch
Joe Laetsch
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Great. Thanks. That makes sense. And then shifting gears, I wanted to ask about the ethanol segment. While margins are still challenged, traffic came in a bit better than we had expected.

Joe Laetsch
Joe Laetsch
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Could you just talk to the latest dynamics for that segment and outlook going forward for this year?

Eric Fisher
Eric Fisher
Senior Vice President of Product Supply & Trading and Wholesale at Valero Energy

Yes, this is Eric. I think it's interesting. We're about where we were last year. If you look at the dynamics of this current outlook, you're going to have a record planting for corn. Brazil has a record crop that is in the ground.

Eric Fisher
Eric Fisher
Senior Vice President of Product Supply & Trading and Wholesale at Valero Energy

So we expect corn prices, flat corn prices to be at or below where they are from last year. Natural gas is cheap. So from a feedstock standpoint, ethanol looks advantaged. Obviously, it follows a lot of gasoline demand. We're the largest exporter of ethanol.

Eric Fisher
Eric Fisher
Senior Vice President of Product Supply & Trading and Wholesale at Valero Energy

So we saw record exports in the first quarter. But I think it's going to be a question of do you see gasoline demand that Gary mentioned earlier. And if so, then I think ethanol will look stronger in the certainly in the second and third quarter. But right now, I'd say we're kind of right around mid cycle. Last year was right around mid cycle.

Eric Fisher
Eric Fisher
Senior Vice President of Product Supply & Trading and Wholesale at Valero Energy

So I'd say ethanol looks like sort of a mid cycle year from an outlook standpoint. But from our operation plan, I mean we'll be at max production given these economics.

Joe Laetsch
Joe Laetsch
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Great. Thanks for taking my questions.

Operator

Thank you. Our next questions come from the line of Jason Gabelman with Cowen. Please proceed with your questions.

Jason Gabelman
MD - Equity Research at TD Cowen

Yes. Hey, morning. Thanks for taking my questions. The first one is related to natural gas dynamics and it's a two parter. In The U.

Jason Gabelman
MD - Equity Research at TD Cowen

S, you've seen natural gas prices move higher impacting your operating expense. And I wonder if you're doing anything on the ground to mitigate that expense. And then conversely, in Europe, given you have an asset there as natural gas prices are moving lower, are you seeing the ability for that region to run its secondary units at higher rates and add more product to the market? Thanks.

Greg Bram
Greg Bram
Vice President- Refining Services at Valero Energy

Hey, Jason, it's Greg. So I'll start in The U. S. You've seen a lot of volatility in the natural gas market and it's been regional as well. A lot of that has been both expectations and actual performance of some of these LNG facilities.

Greg Bram
Greg Bram
Vice President- Refining Services at Valero Energy

You've had a fair amount of transportation and logistics disruptions as well. So with that volatility, we've been a bit cautious to try to go out and do anything on a forward basis and have stuck to buying gas on a kind of ratable as needed basis. And the big question there still remains to be the LNG market and how that materializes in terms of actual liftings out of The U. S. Again, as you know, some of that depends on where that LNG is pointed and some of the economic factors that will drive that.

Greg Bram
Greg Bram
Vice President- Refining Services at Valero Energy

In Pembroke, the only thing I can really say about that is where natural gas prices are currently for our operation, they aren't causing us to really change our mode of operation. They're in a place where we're going to run the way we typically run maximizing throughput, maximizing production. The only thing we ever look at there is maybe shifting fuel sources between natural gas and different NGLs that might prove to be a bit more economic. But that's a fairly typical optimization we do on a regular basis.

Jason Gabelman
MD - Equity Research at TD Cowen

Okay. I think most of my other questions were answered. So I'll leave it there. Thanks.

Lane Riggs
Lane Riggs
CEO, President & Chairman of the Board at Valero Energy

Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. Our next questions come from the line of Jean Ann Salisbury with Bank of America. Please proceed with your questions.

Jean Ann Salisbury
Jean Ann Salisbury
Managing Director at Bank of America

Hi, good morning. Can you talk about what you expect for the one time overall cash impact that you expect from closing Venetia between the land value, selling down inventory and then just closure cash costs? And is Venetia a good proxy for the exit cost of The U. S. Refinery?

Homer Bhullar
Homer Bhullar
VP, IR & Finance at Valero Energy

Yes. So you might have seen in our eight ks, we disclosed what the AR book for the asset was going to be. Yes. So I mean, I think that's the number.

Lane Riggs
Lane Riggs
CEO, President & Chairman of the Board at Valero Energy

Well, I guess, it also had

Lane Riggs
Lane Riggs
CEO, President & Chairman of the Board at Valero Energy

the location of inventory, right, as a part of the

Homer Bhullar
Homer Bhullar
VP, IR & Finance at Valero Energy

Yes, from a cash flow standpoint.

Jason Fraser
Jason Fraser
EVP & CFO at Valero Energy

This is Jason. You'll get the cash with inventory fairly quickly. The other cash will be expended that's represented by the ARO for a series of years, several years after the closure as we undertake cleanup and dismantling and things like that. Any realization of real estate related proceeds is several years out too.

Jean Ann Salisbury
Jean Ann Salisbury
Managing Director at Bank of America

Okay. Thank you. And then as a follow-up, LPG tariffs on U. S. LPG have kind of gone into effect in China.

Jean Ann Salisbury
Jean Ann Salisbury
Managing Director at Bank of America

Do you see this materially impacting feedstock costs or just naphtha or light ins pricing if it continues?

Greg Bram
Greg Bram
Vice President- Refining Services at Valero Energy

Gene, this is Greg. Yes, I'll start. Gary may have something to add. But at this point, we haven't seen it have much of a disruption on overall trade flows and market prices here in The U. S.

Greg Bram
Greg Bram
Vice President- Refining Services at Valero Energy

So I think it will remain to be seen whether that starts to develop as the year progresses.

Gary Simmons
Gary Simmons
Executive VP & COO at Valero Energy

Yes. I think the combination of what's happening in China and Venezuela, naphtha is still flowing to Venezuela as diluent, but that will kind of come to an end at the May. At that time frame, it's likely that you could see naphtha get a little weaker.

Jean Ann Salisbury
Jean Ann Salisbury
Managing Director at Bank of America

Okay, great. That's all for me. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our final questions will come from the line of Matthew Blair with Tudor Pickering Holt and Company. Please proceed with your questions.

Matthew Blair
Managing Director at TPH&Co

Great. Thanks and good morning. You provided some helpful commentary on the biofuel regulatory front in regards to things like RVO and the California Low Carbon Fuel Standard. I wanted to get your take, do you see momentum building for nationwide E15? And if so, could you talk about how that might affect your business?

Eric Fisher
Eric Fisher
Senior Vice President of Product Supply & Trading and Wholesale at Valero Energy

Yes, this is Eric.

Eric Fisher
Eric Fisher
Senior Vice President of Product Supply & Trading and Wholesale at Valero Energy

I think there's a little bit of a mess in the Midwest right now where the seven governors asked for E15 without the one pound waiver and then realized within short within weeks of converting to summer grade that, that creates a lot of complexity in terms of the supply into the Midwest that they then asked the EPA to grant a twenty day emergency waiver again for the one pound waiver for both E10 and E15. So I don't think you see a lot of positive support for that supply chain completely shifting to E15. There's still a lot of complexity at the retail level, at the consumer levels willingness to switch. So now that all being said, in a lot of those Midwest states we're watching, we do see some incremental E15, it's not substantial growth in those sales, but we are seeing some incremental sales of E15. I think nationally, we're still far away from that becoming a reality or even a proposal.

Eric Fisher
Eric Fisher
Senior Vice President of Product Supply & Trading and Wholesale at Valero Energy

The governors did ask for that, but I doubt EPA is going to do that from a blanket standpoint for the entire U. S. The other thing I would say just from a fundamental standpoint, The U. S. Ethanol production is slightly long into an export that we mostly perform.

Eric Fisher
Eric Fisher
Senior Vice President of Product Supply & Trading and Wholesale at Valero Energy

But there is not enough ethanol in The U. S. To go to E15. I think we've done the math and you can get to a max of about E12. So if there was some kind of mandate to go to E15, you would be short in The U.

Eric Fisher
Eric Fisher
Senior Vice President of Product Supply & Trading and Wholesale at Valero Energy

S. And it would require probably in the short term some import of ethanol from likely Brazil. So you look at all of that from a policy standpoint, I think you'll see you'll continue to see the Midwest states push for E15. They are getting some traction there, but that commercial growth is very slow and I don't see that going beyond the Midwest states anytime soon.

Matthew Blair
Managing Director at TPH&Co

Great. Thank you. And then on the refining side, do you think it's reasonable to assume a quarter over quarter improvement in capture for the second quarter as you roll off the maintenance from the first quarter? Or are there other considerations that we should take into account?

Greg Bram
Greg Bram
Vice President- Refining Services at Valero Energy

Hey, this is Greg. You know how this goes. There's lots of factors that will have an impact on capture, a lot of the secondary products market structure on the crude side. So it's hard to say where things go. A couple of things that tend to be fairly structural on a seasonal basis.

Greg Bram
Greg Bram
Vice President- Refining Services at Valero Energy

As we pull butane out of the gasoline pool as we move into the summer, that tends to be against us on capture. So that's one thing to watch. And then other than that, it's hard to say this early in the quarter where things would go. As far as maintenance goes, to the extent that our outages have a larger impact on throughput, probably says they'll have less of an impact on capture rates. So we'll have lower throughput, but you'll see the margin will move kind of in concert with that.

Matthew Blair
Managing Director at TPH&Co

Great. Thanks for your comments.

Operator

Thank you. We have reached the end of our question and answer session. I would now like to hand the floor back over to Homer Buller for closing comments.

Homer Bhullar
Homer Bhullar
VP, IR & Finance at Valero Energy

Thanks, Daryl, and appreciate everyone joining us today. Obviously, feel free to contact the IR team if you have any additional questions. Thanks everyone and have a great day.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. We appreciate your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Enjoy the rest of your day.

Executives
    • Homer Bhullar
      Homer Bhullar
      VP, IR & Finance
    • Lane Riggs
      Lane Riggs
      CEO, President & Chairman of the Board
    • Gary Simmons
      Gary Simmons
      Executive VP & COO
    • Greg Bram
      Greg Bram
      Vice President- Refining Services
    • Eric Fisher
      Eric Fisher
      Senior Vice President of Product Supply & Trading and Wholesale
    • Rich Walsh
      Rich Walsh
      EVP & General Counsel
    • Jason Fraser
      Jason Fraser
      EVP & CFO
Analysts
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Earnings Conference Call
Valero Energy Q1 2025
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