O-I Glass Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
April 30, 2025

There are 10 speakers on the call.

Operator

Hello, everybody, and welcome to the O I Glass First Quarter twenty twenty five Earnings Conference Call. My name is Elliot, and I'll be your coordinator today. I'd now like to hand over to Chris Manuel, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Elliot, and welcome, everyone, to the O I Glass first quarter twenty twenty five earnings conference call. Our discussion today will be led by Gordon Hardy, our CEO and John Hodrick, our CFO. Following prepared remarks, we will host a Q and A session. Presentation materials for today's call are available on the company's website. Please review the Safe Harbor comments and disclosure of our use of non GAAP financial measures included in those materials.

Speaker 1

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Gordon,

Speaker 2

who will start on Slide three. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for your interest in O I Glass. Today, we will walk you through our first quarter twenty twenty five performance, key market trends and outlook for the rest of the year. First, I would like to take this opportunity to thank all my colleagues at O I across the world for their efforts in this first quarter and for their agility and focus on driving the changes needed to turn our way around. Last night, we reported first quarter adjusted earnings of $0.40 per share.

Speaker 2

While down from last year, results significantly exceeded our plan due to stronger than anticipated sales volume and fit to win benefits. Market conditions have continued to gradually recover and our shipments increased by more than 4% compared to last year. Additionally, our Fit to Win program generated savings of $61,000,000 which was a significant contributor to our better than expected results. Strong demand and initiative benefits helped offset expected headwinds, including lower net price and scheduled temporary production curtailments. Looking at our business units, segment operating profit improved significantly in The Americas, reflecting healthier fundamentals and benefit from strategic initiatives.

Speaker 2

In Europe, results trended down, giving lower net price and temporary production downtime, which was partially mitigated by solid Fit to Win benefits. Overall, we are off to a strong start this year and are successfully managing the elements within our control. As such, we are reaffirming our full year 2025 guidance and expect adjusted earnings to improve between 5085% from 2024. John will discuss our outlook further, including an initial view on how changing global trade policies could affect the business. In summary then, we are pleased with our year to date performance trend despite some anticipated lag in Europe, and we aim to deliver robust financial performance throughout the year.

Speaker 2

Let's now turn to Page four to discuss current market trends. Overall, continued to gradually improve and our shipments were up 4.4% in the first quarter. Solid growth reflected some rebuilding of packaging inventories across the value chain, benefits from recent contract negotiations supported by multi year cost improvement plans and likely some advanced purchases ahead of new tariff policies. Shipments were up more than 4% across The Americas. Here, we see inventory normalization overall as well as more structural demand improvement in Latin America together with the positive impact of some expanded contracts in North America.

Speaker 2

Volumes increased in nearly all markets driven by a strong rebound in beer and spirits with solid growth in food. Volumes grew nearly 4% in Europe driven by customer inventory rebuilding and some buying ahead of tariffs for export customers. As with The Americas, shipments increased in nearly all markets and categories with most growth coming from beer, wine as well as food. Currently, we are addressing excess capacity in Europe through temporary curtailments, and we are in consultation with the European and local works councils regarding long term restructuring actions. These efforts should improve our competitive position and support profitable growth.

Speaker 2

Shipment activity has been encouraging and our volumes are up about 3% year to date through April. Recently, we've seen some softer demand amid elevated uncertainty of new tariff policies, which may continue to impact near term shipments. As such, we are maintaining a cautious commercial outlook as well as our original sales volume guidance. We will reassess our 2025 sales volume outlook midyear as trends evolve. Let's now turn to Page five and discuss progress on our Fit to Win program, which aims to radically reduce total enterprise cost as well as optimize our entire network and value chain to support future profitable growth.

Speaker 2

We generated $61,000,000 in savings during the first quarter alone, which exceeded our initial plan. Momentum is building and we are confident that we will achieve our targets of $250,000,000 in 2025 and $650,000,000 cumulatively by 2027. Phase A of our Fit to Win program is focused on reshaping our SG and A structure and initial network realignment to meet current market needs. Phase B seeks to fundamentally transform costs across the value chain, including the implementation of our total organization effectiveness program to optimize capacity within the system. Regarding Phase A, we have now completed all actions required to secure our $100,000,000 SG and A savings target in 2025.

Speaker 2

Initial network optimization actions are well underway and we are confident that we will achieve our 2025 goal. Likewise, additional efforts are in progress to achieve our 2027 targets. We have also kicked off our Phase B initiatives. As we look to transform our cost base, the team has already made initial progress across several procurement programs as well as efforts to improve efficiency and reduce energy utilization. Finally, our total organization effectiveness program is ramping up nicely.

Speaker 2

We successfully completed the pilot implementation at our Tijuana, Virginia plant, where we see significant performance improvements and lower inventory levels. Based on those results, we will begin the broader rollout starting in May 2025, which should be completed by the end of twenty twenty six. Importantly, many plants have initiated savings programs based on the TOE principles ahead of the formal rollout, generating early savings. In summary, our Fit to Win program is delivering strong benefits and we are making solid progress towards our savings target. We are confident in our ability to achieve our goals, enhance operational performance and are well positioned for continued success throughout the year.

Speaker 2

I will now turn it over to John, who will review our first quarter performance and our 2025 outlook in more detail starting on Page six.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Gordon, and good morning, everyone. OI reported first quarter adjusted earnings of $0.40 per share. While down from last year, results surpassed management's expectations due to stronger than anticipated sales volume growth and higher Fit to Win benefits. As you can see on the left, adjusted earnings was down modestly from the prior year. Single digit sales volume growth and significant Fit to Win benefits mostly offset anticipated headwinds including lower net price and ongoing temporary production curtailments to reduce inventory.

Speaker 3

Looking to the right segment, operating profit was up in The Americas, but down in Europe. Results improved significantly in Americas, reflecting strong demand, stable net price amid tight capacity and around $27,000,000 of Fit to Win benefits. Consistent with our expectations, earnings were down in Europe. While sales volume was up nearly 4%, net price was ahead reflecting competitive pressures and excess capacity. We did incur about $58,000,000 of unabsorbed fixed costs as we curtailed significant capacity to draw down inventories, which was partially offset by $20,000,000 of Fit to Win benefits as well as other savings.

Speaker 3

Importantly, results should improve in the second half of the year as inventory reduction activities moderate and we generate greater initiative benefits following current restructuring actions. As we focus on economic profit, we have made very good progress on reducing inventory across the enterprise, which is down around $225,000,000 from the same time last year. Furthermore, we are on track to meet or be below our year end 2025 target of less than fifty days IDS. In summary, we're off to a strong start this year. Despite some headwinds, results exceeded our expectations heading in the quarter and we are well positioned for continued success throughout the year.

Speaker 3

Let's turn to page seven and discuss our business outlook. We are reaffirming our full year 2025 guidance. Adjusted earnings should range between $1.2 and $1.5 per share which represents a 50% to 85% improvement from fiscal year twenty twenty four. Significantly higher adjusted earnings should reflect ongoing efforts to enhance our operational performance, reduce costs and capture market opportunities. Likewise, we expect a significant rebound in free cash flow boosted by strong operating performance improvement and lower CapEx investment requirements.

Speaker 3

We have also provided a directional sense of how our annual earnings will unfold by quarter. Based on a strong start to the year, our full year performance is currently tracking towards the high end of our earnings guidance range. However, we are maintaining our original business outlook given the uncertainty related to new tariff policies, which we will discuss further as we turn to Page eight. Changes in global trade policies will likely be disruptive in the short term and may create both new challenges and opportunities, which cannot be fully determined at this stage. As illustrated in the chart, about 14% of our global sales volume crosses the border between The U.

Speaker 3

S. And other nations. This includes both empty and filled bottles. We estimate that only 4.5 is currently exposed to new tariffs. This primarily relates to imports of filled containers from Europe, while most cross border sales between The U.

Speaker 3

S, Mexico and Canada are exempt under the USMCA treaty. As such, we face a limited direct tariff exposure so far. The bigger unknown is how elevated market uncertainty may impact the consumer and demand elasticity. While we face a few challenges, there are potential opportunities. Glass is a local business and around 85% of the value chain is within 300 miles of the plant, So we do not rely on a global supply chain, which is more exposed to tariffs.

Speaker 3

Favorable substrate dynamics may emerge as there are currently sector specific tariffs on aluminum. Likewise, domestic glass production is now significantly more competitive compared to imports from China given new tariffs. Next, O I has the largest glass network in The U. S. So we are well positioned to take advantage of opportunities that emerge, especially if consumption shifts to more domestic products over time.

Speaker 3

Finally, policy changes have already led to sizable shifts in currency exchange rates that are helping improve earnings translation. Naturally, are working with our partners in the value chain to mitigate risk and capture opportunities. Overall, we continue to believe our best long term strategy is to improve the competitive position of the company through Fit to Win. Now I'll turn it back to Gordon, who will conclude our discussion on Page nine.

Speaker 2

Thanks, John. In conclusion, O I is well positioned for a strong year ahead. We are off to a fast start. We expect our performance and earnings in 2025 will rebound from prior year levels as we implement our Fit to Win initiatives. While changes in the global trade policies create uncertainties, we are executing our long term value creation roadmap as illustrated on the right and discussed at length during last month's Investor Day.

Speaker 2

Importantly, these actions are largely within our control. We are confident in our ability to achieve our goals, deliver strong future financial performance and create shareholder value. Thank you for your attention, and we look forward to taking your questions.

Operator

Thank Our first question comes from George Staphos with Bank of America. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Thanks very much. Hi, everyone.

Speaker 5

Good morning. Thank you for the details. Good I guess the question I have to start is,

Speaker 2

can you talk a bit

Speaker 5

about any pre buy effects you've sort of touched on within your what kind of volume effect might that be that has to reverse itself in the back half of year or whenever? And then overall, can you talk a little bit about some of the work you're doing on TOE at Tucano and elsewhere and why that supports your overall fit to win goals? So pre buy and then TOE and what you're seeing in Tucano. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yes, George. Thanks for the question. I'll kick things off. This is John. On the pre buy point, as included in our comments, sales volume was up 4.4% in the first quarter.

Speaker 3

We actually saw probably a fairly limited amount of that. It was not the driver of the stronger volume in the quarter. And in fact, what we had seen is that our sales volumes were actually stronger in January and February, but they were still up in March. So we believe that maybe some of the strength in March was there. So in other words, if volume was a $6 or so benefit in the quarter, maybe there was a $0 or $02 in there associated with pre buying, but it was not the driver of the stronger volume in the quarter.

Speaker 5

Hey, just sort of quick Hi, Gordon. Just quickly, April, you said softened. So are we looking at negative volumes to get to a year to date growth rate of 3% from up 4%? Or just maybe another kind of detail there?

Speaker 3

What I would say is while that's not our base case view, we are remaining cautious in the commercial outlook. So we are maintaining our full year view of stable volume over for the year on a year over year basis, so kind of flattish overall for the But again, that's out of abundance of caution on just the uncertainty on tariffs. It's certainly not the direction we hope things go. In April, just to give you a little bit of color, adjusted for Easter, volumes were down about 1% or 2%. It wasn't a significant decline.

Speaker 3

Volumes were up in The Americas, low single digit. Again, that that remains healthy. And our business really isn't exposed to tariffs there, but we did did see a little bit of decline in Europe, and it was primarily in in use categories and markets that we know are exposed to exports, considering that Okay. About 40% of what we make in Europe ultimately gets exported. It was kind of the wines and the spirits categories that we saw a little bit of softness in in in April.

Speaker 3

Yeah.

Speaker 1

Yeah. Thanks. And Jordan, we we

Speaker 2

will update the you know, as we get more visibility in this quarter and we'll update in, you know, in at the at the half year. With regard to the second part of your question, TOE and Tawano, you know, as we as we outlined, I think, in in July and October, there there is a there's a process that we we put each of the plants through. In that, there are performance opportunities identified, and and then we we go and execute against those, those opportunities. In Tijuana, we have a very clear line of sight to a % of the opportunities we identified. And we've established, you know, the the the the metrics, the the operating system, you know, validated some of our some of our hypothesis, which have come out strongly.

Speaker 2

And now we will we will begin the rollout across the whole fleet in in waves. And that's a very structured kind of disciplined approach over the next fifteen to eighteen months. So we're we're very happy with the outcome of Tawana, and, you know, we expect similar results, as we roll out the program across the whole fleet.

Speaker 5

Thank you, Gordon. I just mentioned because Tijuana is one of your better plans over the years. But I'll turn it over. Thanks very much.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

We now turn to Michael Oxlund with Truist Securities. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Thank you, Gordon, John and Chris for taking my questions, and congrats on all the progress and a nice quarter.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Michael.

Operator

Thank you.

Speaker 6

My first is just on a follow-up to what George was asking about with respect to volumes. Can you give us a sense just in terms of the volume progress that you're seeing by end market, whether it be wine, spirits, beer, NAB? Just want to get a sense of the growth or the headwinds that you may be encountering in some of those end markets. And where do order books stand currently? So any outlook you can share with respect to how early read on May, for instance?

Speaker 2

Sure, Michael. I'll take that question. So in both The Americas and Europe, we you know, strong volumes in in the first quarter. And literally, was it was across most categories, in in each of the regions. So, you know, we we in The Americas, for example, you know, beer up, you know, close to 4%, food performing strongly, you know, high single digits.

Speaker 2

Spirits in The Americas actually had a very strong quarter, you know, up double digits for us, as had, you know, RTDs. So overall, you know, strong volume growth in The Americas, you know, strong demand, tight capacity. In in Europe, you know, beer performed very strongly in the quarter. Non alcoholic beverages also performed strongly, up high single digits for us. Food, up mid single digits.

Speaker 2

Wine, you know, a bit of a comeback, low single digits in Europe. Spirits were off in Europe, off mid single digits, and RTDs, which is a much smaller category in Europe, also slightly off. So all in all, you know, there's we we see kind of green shoots in in a lot of the categories, in a lot of the geographies, coming back. So, you know, order books at this stage are are are good. There's certainly uncertainty out there regarding where all this tariff discussions are going to play out, and that is causing consumer uncertainty as well.

Speaker 2

So I think this quarter will be telling to see where where everything lands. And, yeah, that that that's our view at the moment. As I said, as we look to the end of the year, we're we're we're sticking with our initial thinking at the start that it will be stable over the year. There may be a few bumps here and there, but overall, off to a strong start.

Speaker 6

That's great, Gordon. Thank you for all the color. And just one quick follow-up. You're looking to streamline your French operations given the slowdown in wine. Now is that a structural issue just related to French wines?

Speaker 6

Is that a structural issue for all wines? Does it relate to more mainstream wine brands versus, let's say, premium products in terms of when I say premium products, meaning like top regions, top brands? So just want get sense of what you're trying to do with your French operations and really what the driver is there in terms of the realignment?

Speaker 2

Yes. Look, overall, fitting assets to to market opportunities. You know, where, as I said, we're looking now at the portfolio in terms of two streams, mainstream and premium. We we see tremendous opportunities in in premium, you know, across wine, across spirits in France. And so some of this is the realignment of the footprint to get ourselves ready to, you know, expand into premium as we go forward.

Speaker 2

And, of course, we'll continue to invest strongly in France. We've, have a big investment in Agencoeur, which has gone live and is delivering to to expectations. We're very happy with it. And we will continue to to invest in France, which is a which is a key market for for for wines and spirits, particularly wines and spirits. You know, longer term, you know, wine particularly, you know, economy wines have have suffered some impact, you know, across the whole market.

Speaker 2

But I think if you look through the cycle over the long term, you know, premium and super premium wine, premium spirits, super premium spirits, will will continue to to perform to perform strongly. And that really is looking at the footprint and making sure we're set up properly for that as we as we execute on what we laid out in our iDay, you know, our best of both strategy being the lowest cost producer in mainstream and best cost producer in in premium. So that really is the context for the operations review across Europe.

Operator

Our next question comes from Joshua Spector with UBS. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Hi. Good morning. It's Anuj Shah sitting in for Josh. On slide eight, you mentioned tariffs on aluminum as an opportunity, one of one of the opportunities of tariffs. Have you seen signs of this yet with customers where this could potentially be a be a benefit?

Speaker 7

Like, maybe you're having introductory conversations about substrates or just any color on what you're seeing there and how you think it might benefit you.

Speaker 3

Yeah. Just for just for some clarity there, you know, if you go back to our investor day, we did profile that, you know, that overall glass containers in North America are at a higher cost than than aluminum. You know, that's 25 to 30% kind of differential, and we believe if that goes to 15% or lower historically, we've seen shifts over to glass. And we believe that the difference on the aluminum tariff side could impact that, call it, five, ten percentage points against that 25% to 30 you know, percent premium. So it could help.

Speaker 3

I think it's a little early. You know, some of these things are supply chain related. They're filling related. They are, you know, contractually related. So I would say, you know, just as we look at the, you know, back to the prepared comments, you know, the challenges, you know, we'll probably some of see some of the broader market related areas probably over the shorter to medium term.

Speaker 3

And the opportunity section that we show on page a is probably something that unfolds a little bit more over time than what we're seeing anyway.

Speaker 2

Yeah. Just an an add to that, you know, obviously, if if there's increases in price in aluminum, that that helps, you know, close the gap a bit. But that's not controllable for us. And so what we're focused on is, you know, getting our cost base, into a position that we close the gap very significantly, to to cans and become more competitive to cans, particularly in North America, you know, driving those elements that are within our control. And that really is our is our primary focus.

Speaker 2

You know, tariffs for us is an is an uncontrollable. And while it may help us, you know, over a over short medium term period, it's it's not something we wish to rely on as we as we get fit.

Speaker 7

Great. Thank you. That's very helpful. I'll turn it over.

Operator

We now turn to Anthony Pettinari with Citi. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Morning. Europe, have

Speaker 8

year over year headwinds for net price and then operating costs with the curtailments in 1Q. As you envision the year, can you talk about maybe the cadence of how you'd expect those headwinds to trend and ultimately inflect over the four quarters of the year?

Speaker 3

Yes, Anthony, this is John. I'll take that one. As we take a look at net price for the business, it will be front end loaded this year. So you saw the $37,000,000 impact in the quarter. It should be less than that in the second quarter and then be a relatively minor headwind for the business in the back half of the year.

Speaker 3

That's primarily because last year we had started to see a little bit of pricing pressure in the marketplace in the back half of last year. We're going to comp that. So that will show a year over year moderation in that pressure point. And then when it comes to the curtailment costs, you know, we believe that that also is going to be front end loaded. You know, we're trying to, you know, bring our inventories down to, you know, fifty days or lower.

Speaker 3

We're making good progress on that. If you take a look at just the, you know, the calculations and everything on a on a year over year basis, You know, the operating cost impact of that is it peaks in the first quarter. We'll have some negative impact in the second quarter, not to the same degree in the first quarter. And by the back half of the year on a year over year basis, that's going to be a strong year over year headwind against obviously weaker comps in the prior year. So hopefully that gives you the cadence that you're looking for.

Speaker 8

Got it. Got it. That's very helpful. And then just a quick follow-up. You talked about tariff impacts and competitive intensity with aluminum, which I guess is maybe too soon to tell.

Speaker 8

But in The U. S, can you talk about how fewer Chinese bottles, fewer Chinese imports, how you're seeing that impact the market, this year?

Speaker 2

Yes. We're currently, we're not seeing a lot of impact because there does seem to have been quite a bit of pre buying by by importers and distributors. So, we we see there's a fair bit of stock in the market. Obviously, you know, buyers may also look to see if there are other cheaper import markets such as India. But so at the moment, we're we're not seeing a huge, a huge impact, Anthony.

Speaker 3

One one thing I would would add, Anthony, is is just if if we take take look at those opportunity sections in that tariff, if those emerge, those are kind of upsides to our baseline view of the business. Those are opportunities that are not factored into our current outlook at all.

Speaker 2

Got it. Got it.

Speaker 3

And what do

Speaker 8

you think those inventories potentially they run down by the summer? Is it a few months or a few quarters or any framing there?

Speaker 2

Yeah. Would imagine by the end of the summer. I would imagine by the end of the summer.

Speaker 8

Got it. Got it.

Speaker 5

I'll turn it over.

Operator

We now turn to Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Great. Thanks for taking my question. So just congrats on the strong progress thus far. I guess maybe you can just review what you're hearing from some of your customers on the spirits side in North America. I know there's been some volatility there.

Speaker 9

I mean, I guess globally as well that would be helpful. Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yeah. You know, as we, you know, as we work through these these kind of uncertain times, obviously, we're staying as close as we can to to customers and working with them on maybe different scenarios and, you know, how we position capacity. And, you know, I think there's a bit of a wait and see, you know, over the over the next sixty days now. And I I think there has been, you know, last year, maybe some some shifting of product into into different markets, and we we saw that a bit of that in January. But no big structural decisions about onshoring, capacity or onshoring bottling, for example, from Europe.

Speaker 2

There, people are talking about it, but, no no actual moves on that and and, neither, you know, do we see moves currently, you know, in into from The US into Europe. So so I think we're very much in a in a wait and see period. And some of these decisions, once you make them, you're long on that decision. And then if tariff policies change, people can be caught out of the position. So I think it's very much a wait and see at the moment, Arun.

Speaker 3

The one thing I would add on what we had seen last year is that the spirits activity, they were drawing down inventories. And I think we've seen some normalization of that. In fact, volumes in the first quarter in spirits were actually pretty good because people are beyond past that destocking phase, now we're going into the obviously, the uncertainty with tariffs.

Speaker 9

Thanks, John. Yes. And I guess I also had some questions on the raw side. Maybe just give us some thoughts on how you're thinking about your energy hedges, as it relates to natural gas, as well as potentially, you know, your sourcing of coal and soda ash if there's any anything we need to be mindful of on on that side. Thanks.

Speaker 3

Yeah. I'll I'll address the energy component of it. So just a background, we we have very favorable energy long term contracts that we set, before the Russia Ukraine war. We've been benefiting from that, but we're we're highly covered and contracted through through the balance of the year. So as it stands, you know, for this year, we're in very good shape when it comes to energy.

Speaker 3

Now going into next year, you know, '26 and beyond, we have been layering in over time, you know, some of our positions and and contracts for the future. We we take a a multiyear view on that. Now at the same token, some of those prices had had had had peaked up at the beginning of the year, so we're we're being judicious about that. What I would point you back to, Arun, is, you know, back to our Investor Day about a month ago, we we kinda gave a longer term view of, you know, from our bridge from today or at the end of twenty four to two thousand and twenty seven where we're going to $1,450,000,000 of EBITDA. Included that in that outlook was our expected headwind for resetting of those long term energy contracts.

Speaker 3

And I would say that that that view still holds. So I think you can look back at that. And and even with the the moving energy markets, I think it's it's still an appropriate outlook.

Speaker 2

Yeah. And and with regard to raw materials, generally, you know, as we've laid out as part of our strategy, you know, is is a value chain approach. So working differently both with customers on the front end, but also working differently with suppliers on the back end and doing so in a way that strips waste and inefficiency out of that part of the chain. And we're working very well with our key suppliers. There's tremendous focus on productivity plans.

Speaker 2

And so, you know, we're we're very happy with the progress we're making there, and in managing that that area of the of the of the value chain and the cost base far more tightly than than heretofore. So so we we we feel we're in we're in good shape there.

Operator

As another reminder, if you'd like to ask any follow-up questions, please press We now turn to Gabe Hatch with Wells Fargo Securities. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Gordon, John, Chris, good morning. Thanks for taking the question.

Speaker 3

Hey, Ben. How are

Speaker 4

you?

Speaker 2

Hey, Gabe.

Speaker 4

Well, I joined a a moment late, so I I apologize if you guys addressed this. I didn't see you call out any sort of, curtailments in The Americas. So a, confirm that b, I think I heard the word tight ish, across the production system. Is that true across the specific geographies, U. S, Mexico and Brazil?

Speaker 4

And then maybe what are you seeing? I know we're going into the winter months, but any discussion with your customers in terms of, kind of cadence for the back half of the year?

Speaker 3

Yeah. I can take the first part of that, Katie. You did hear right. It's it's yeah. Yeah.

Speaker 3

Okay. Sure. The you did hear right overall, there were no curtailments of any consequence in The Americas all the way from Canada down to Brazil. We're we're we're very, very balanced in that in that particular marketplace. Certainly, we will continue to seek through TOE going forward opportunities to improve capacity utilization, but we've done most of the heavy lifting of of the the network, initial network optimizations in The Americas.

Speaker 3

And and as, as I mentioned before, we continue in Europe, but we hope by midyear, maybe, you know, later part of summer, we're we're beyond the the worst of the, their temporary curtailment activity.

Speaker 2

Yeah. And, you know, the outlook for the rest of the year, I think, is is largely more of the same in The Americas. You know, the demand is good, capacity is tight, you know, pricing is stable. And, you know, we expect that to to kind of run through probably to the to the end of the year in those geographies for sure.

Speaker 4

Okay. And then John, I think you kind of mentioned and I fully appreciate being cautious and pragmatic here given the macro, but kind of if we were to free things today tracking towards the upper end of the range based on kind of what you expect through the first half. I also know that you guys have talked about trying to reduce the volatility in earnings and produce closer to sell, maybe not hang on to as much inventory. Think I know Gordon you've talked about that. The Q4 guide, that where we would see the big swing factor?

Speaker 4

And I think you also just mentioned not taking as many curtailments in the fourth quarter. So is that the big swing factor and unknown as we sit today that could dictate higher end of the range, lower end of the range? Because it seems like you guys got some visibility into Q2, Q3.

Speaker 3

I think it's a fair observation, Gabe. The fourth quarter, as you took a look at that pie chart, is the weakest quarter from an earnings quarterly earnings standpoint. It is also the seasonally slowest period for our business given just the seasonality of our business and being predominantly Northern Hemisphere. But if there's an opportunity, I think there is, you know, again, line of sight is is better in the second and third and a little bit more cautious in the fourth quarter. You know, of course, the fourth quarter is also, you know, an active period.

Speaker 3

Sometimes you do more maintenance, sometimes you don't depending on the activity. And and I would also say, you know, our earnings are very sensitive to tax rates, especially in in those those softer periods and seasonally softer periods. So that could also be a a swing factor too. So to the degree that we're at the higher end of the range, you know, and and the tariff, know, challenges don't manifest themselves to to materially impact the business, I think you could see the fourth quarter being a little bit better.

Operator

We have no further questions. I'll now hand back to Chris Manuel for any final remarks.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Elliot. That concludes our earnings call. Please note, our second quarter call is currently scheduled for Wednesday, July 30. And as a reminder, make it a memorable moment by choosing safe, sustainable glass. Thank you.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, today's call has now concluded. We'd like to thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

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