Antero Resources Q1 2025 Earnings Report

Antero Resources EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $0.78
• Consensus EPS: $0.68
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$0.10
• One Year Ago EPS: $0.12

Antero Resources Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $1.35 billion
• Expected Revenue: $1.28 billion
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$69.16 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: +20.50%

Antero Resources Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q1 2025
• Date: 4/30/2025
• Time: After Market Closes
• Conference Call Date: Thursday, May 1, 2025
• Conference Call Time: 11:00AM ET

Antero Resources (NYSE:AR), an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the development, production, exploration, and acquisition of natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and oil properties in the United States. It operates in three segments: Exploration and Development; Marketing; and Equity Method Investment in Antero Midstream. As of December 31, 2023, the company had approximately 515,000 net acres in the Appalachian Basin; and approximately 172,000 net acres in the Upper Devonian Shale. Its gathering and compression systems also comprise 631 miles of gas gathering pipelines in the Appalachian Basin. The company was formerly known as Antero Resources Appalachian Corporation and changed its name to Antero Resources Corporation in June 2013. Antero Resources Corporation was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

Antero Resources Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Antero increased drilling and completion efficiencies by 15% year-over-year to 2,452 feet per day and averaged 12.3 completion stages per day—peaking at 18 stages on one pad—allowing a two-rig program to maintain 3.4 Bcfe/d of production.
• The company hedged ~9% of its 2026 gas volumes using wide natural gas collars (floor $3.70, ceiling $5.96) tied to its lean-gas pads (~1,200 BTU), securing attractive returns and development continuity.
• NGL marketing remains robust with a projected $1.50–$2.50 per barrel premium to Mont Belvieu on C3+ prices; 90% of LPG exports are under firm agreements at double-digit cent/gallon premiums, and exposure to China is below 4% of volumes.
• The faster-than-expected ramp of Venture Global’s Plaquemines LNG lifted 2025–26 Gulf Coast basis by ~$0.11/MMBtu for Antero’s ~570 MMcf/d TGP 500L transport position, enhancing realized pricing.
• In Q1, Antero generated $337 M of free cash flow, used $92 M for share repurchases and reduced debt by over $200 M, bolstering its industry-leading capital efficiency (breakeven $2.29/Mcf) and preserving flexibility between buybacks and debt paydown.

Presentation

[Operator]

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Brendan Krueger, Vice President of Finance.

[Operator]

Thank you, sir. You may begin.

[Brendan Krueger, VP of Finance & Treasurer at Antero Resources]

Thank you and good morning. Thank you for joining us for Antero's first quarter twenty twenty five investor conference call. We'll spend a few minutes going through the financial and operating highlights and then we'll open it up for Q and A. I would also like to direct you to the homepage of our website at www.anteroresources.com where we have provided a separate earnings call presentation that will be reviewed during today's call. Today's call may contain certain non GAAP financial measures.

[Brendan Krueger, VP of Finance & Treasurer at Antero Resources]

Please refer to our earnings press release for important disclosures regarding such measures, including reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP financial measures. Joining me on the call today are Paul Rady, Chairman, CEO and President Michael Kennedy, CFO Dave Canalongo, Senior Vice President of Liquids Marketing and Transportation and Justin Fowler, Senior Vice President of Natural Gas Marketing. I will now turn the call over to Paul.

[Paul Rady, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer at Antero Resources]

Thanks, Brendan, and good morning, everyone. Well, this year is off to an excellent start. Let me begin with slide number three titled Drilling and Completion Efficiencies, which details the drivers behind our exceptional performance during the first quarter. Starting with the chart on the left side of the slide, we increased our completed feet per day to an average of 2,452 feet. This represents an increase of 15% from the 2,140 feet per day average in 2023.

[Paul Rady, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer at Antero Resources]

On the right side of the slide, we highlight our completion stages per day. During the first quarter, we averaged 12.3 completion stages per day. This continues the upward trend when comparing to our performance the past two years. Notably, we set a new company record in the first quarter achieving 18 completion stages per day on one pad in March. Lastly, shown in the yellow bars of both charts, we included recent records announced by our natural gas peers to provide context on just how efficient our drilling and completion teams are today.

[Paul Rady, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer at Antero Resources]

This performance allows us to run a very lean program with just two rigs on average and just over one completion crew on average in order to hold flat 3.4 Bcf equivalent per day of production. Now let's turn to slide number four to discuss our updated hedges. During the quarter, we added new wide natural gas collars for 2026. The volumes hedge tied to the expected volumes from our lean gas development, which is the leaner BTU, so approximately 1,200 BTU or less that is planned through the end of twenty twenty six. These white collars lock in attractive rates of return with a floor price of $3.7 and a ceiling of $5.96 Hedging these lean gas pads allows for continuity in our development planning which is essential to maintaining our capital efficiencies.

[Paul Rady, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer at Antero Resources]

With these new hedges in place, we have hedged approximately 9% of our expected natural gas volumes through 2026. Now to touch on the current liquids and NGL fundamentals, I'm going to turn it over to our Senior Vice President of Liquids Marketing and Transportation, Dave Canalongo for his comments.

[David Cannelongo, Senior Vice President of Liquids Marketing & Transportation at Antero Resources]

Thanks, Paul. Let's start on slide number five titled NGL Pricing Premium. Antero's fundamental NGL position and pricing outlook remains strong. This strength is highlighted by our previously stated guidance for a $1.5 to $2.5 per barrel premium to Mont Belvieu on our realized C3 plus NGL prices. This expected premium is an improvement to the $1.41 per barrel premium that we achieved in 2024.

[David Cannelongo, Senior Vice President of Liquids Marketing & Transportation at Antero Resources]

Our outlook is supported by the strategic decision we made to enter into firm sales agreements on 90% of our LPG volumes for 2025 at double digit cent per gallon premiums to Mont Belvieu. In addition, selling our LPG at the Marcus Hook terminal along the East Coast has several competitive advantages. First, it is geographically advantaged to Europe and Atlantic Basin markets. Second, we sell our LPG at the dock to the highest bidder, meaning the ultimate end destination does not directly impact us. And third, Marcus Hook export customers do not have cancellation rights.

[David Cannelongo, Senior Vice President of Liquids Marketing & Transportation at Antero Resources]

So the volumes that we have contracted to date are final. The result of these attributes is that regardless of the extent of current tariff negotiations, Antero's marketing position and strategy helps limit any meaningful impact from the tariffs. Regarding our exposure to China, we did a look back at Antero's historical LPG export cargoes and found that only two cargoes were directed by our customers to China during the entire year of 2024 or less than 4% of our overall C3 plus NGL volumes. This year, no Antero volumes have gone to China to date and none are contracted to do so for the remainder of the year. As I just mentioned, we sell our LPG at the dock to customers offering the highest price.

[David Cannelongo, Senior Vice President of Liquids Marketing & Transportation at Antero Resources]

The fact that very few cargoes went to China going back to the beginning of twenty twenty four, even before the current trade policies went into effect, shows that the Chinese market is rarely the best bid for Antero's barrels out of the East Coast. Next, I'd like to discuss our outlook for the global LPG market. First, I'll note that there are recent reports suggesting that China is likely to exclude ethane and LPG from their tariffs, which is what they have done over the last five years. We'll watch for updated developments there. Regardless, given how tight the global LPG supply demand balance is, we anticipate that global trade patterns will adjust to absorb any displaced U.

[David Cannelongo, Senior Vice President of Liquids Marketing & Transportation at Antero Resources]

S. Barrels. A reshuffle of LPG trade flows could mean increased U. S. LPG volumes heading to Europe, Southeast Asia, India, Japan and South Korea.

[David Cannelongo, Senior Vice President of Liquids Marketing & Transportation at Antero Resources]

This would then require increased Middle Eastern, Russian and African LPG supplies to be directed into China. Global ship tracking data is already demonstrating some of this reshuffle with increased flows from The U. S. Into Japan and South Korea. Most market participants and consultants believe that U.

[David Cannelongo, Senior Vice President of Liquids Marketing & Transportation at Antero Resources]

S. LPG barrels can find sufficient markets outside of China in the event that escalated tariffs continue. In the broader LPG export market, we have not heard of any cancellations at the major U. S. Gulf Coast export terminals since the tariffs came into effect and demand and pricing for our remaining volumes in 2025 has remained essentially unchanged from prior months.

[David Cannelongo, Senior Vice President of Liquids Marketing & Transportation at Antero Resources]

Slide number six highlights U. S. Propane exports. As you can see, exports year to date, including the most recent weeks in April, are at record high levels and 7% above the year ago period, providing additional proof that we have not seen any impact to U. S.

[David Cannelongo, Senior Vice President of Liquids Marketing & Transportation at Antero Resources]

Propane demand. With that, I'll now turn it over to our Senior Vice President of Natural Gas Marketing, Justin Fowler, to discuss the natural gas market.

[Justin B. Fowler, Senior Vice President of Gas Marketing & Transportation at Antero Resources]

Thanks, Dave. I'll start on Slide number seven, which illustrates the positive impact on Gulf Coast pricing that we've experienced due to the faster than expected ramp at Venture Global Plaquemines LNG facility. The chart at the top of the slide illustrates the pace at which Plaquemines ramped up as compared to Venture Global's last LNG facility, Calcasieu Pass. The faster than anticipated startup led to higher demand along our TGP 500 L firm transport and therefore higher pricing. Looking at the TGP 500 L basis, which is the basis hub with the largest exposure to Plaquemines, the quicker than anticipated ramp of the facility has already lifted balance of the year 2025 and calendar twenty twenty six pricing by $0.11 per MMBtu compared to strip pricing before the startup.

[Justin B. Fowler, Senior Vice President of Gas Marketing & Transportation at Antero Resources]

Today, the facility is exporting an average of over 2.1 Bcf per day. Venture Global has indicated that they anticipate this increasing toward 2.7 Bcf per day in the coming months as the facility continues to commission additional blocks. As a reminder, Antero has five seventy MMcf per day of firm transportation or approximately 25% of our gas production on the TGP 5 Hundred L pool. Next, I'd like to turn to Slide number eight titled AR Position for Data Center Natural Gas Demand Search. The Appalachia region and Vicinity have quickly become a focal point for natural gas fired power generation, data centers and behind the meter projects.

[Justin B. Fowler, Senior Vice President of Gas Marketing & Transportation at Antero Resources]

These projects will require significant amount of natural gas supply for decades. The extensive resource base of the Marcellus and Utica shales provide certainty of long term natural gas supply, while supportive state regulations are leading to fast approvals and attractive incentives to build in the region. Two recent announcements include the Homer City power plant outside of Pittsburgh and the CPV Shea power plant located within our development footprint in Doddridge County, West Virginia. Combined, these two natural gas power plants will deliver over 6.5 gigawatts of power, driving a nearly 1.2 Bcf increase in regional natural gas demand. Staying in West Virginia this month, the legislature passed the micro grid bill, an initiative championed by West Virginia Governor, Patrick Morrissey.

[Justin B. Fowler, Senior Vice President of Gas Marketing & Transportation at Antero Resources]

The bill aims to attract data centers into the state and incentivizes them to build self sufficient on-site power generation. The bill was signed into law by the Governor just yesterday. Through our extensive resource base, integrated midstream assets and firm transportation commitments to the Gulf Coast LNG corridor, we are uniquely positioned to participate in both the LNG export growth along the Gulf Coast and the expected growth in regional power demand through data center expansions. Haynesville producers can mention proximity to LNG, while Northeast producers can mention power exposure, but Antero is the only company that is positioned for both. With that, I will turn

[Justin B. Fowler, Senior Vice President of Gas Marketing & Transportation at Antero Resources]

it over to Mike Kennedy, CFO of Antero Resources.

[Michael Kennedy, Senior VP of Finance & CFO at Antero Resources]

Thanks, Justin. In the first quarter, we executed on our plan delivering production of 3.4 Bcfe per day at the midpoint of our guidance. Drilling and completion capital was just $157,000,000 or 23% of our full year guidance. We generated $337,000,000 of free cash flow, which benefited from strong natural gas and NGL premiums relative to their benchmark.

[Michael Kennedy, Senior VP of Finance & CFO at Antero Resources]

We use this free cash flow to accelerate our share repurchase program, repurchasing $92,000,000 of stock or nearly 1% of our shares outstanding year to date. In addition, we continue to focus on debt reduction, reducing debt by over $200,000,000 during the first quarter. We entered 2025 in the strongest position in company history. Our low absolute debt and peer leading capital efficiency provide us with flexibility in our shareholder return strategy. With this flexibility, we can pivot between share buybacks or debt reduction depending on market conditions.

[Michael Kennedy, Senior VP of Finance & CFO at Antero Resources]

This was highlighted by our activity year to date when we saw an opportunity between AR share value and market fundamentals and thus we accelerated our buyback program ahead of the timeline we had previously targeted. Let's look at the attributes that put us in such a compelling position as we enter this new cycle. Starting with slide number nine titled Leading Capital Efficiency and Free Cash Flow Breakeven Levels. The chart on the left hand side of the slide highlights our capital efficiency relative to our peers. Antero has the lowest maintenance capital per Mcfe of its peer group at just $0.54 per Mcfe.

[Michael Kennedy, Senior VP of Finance & CFO at Antero Resources]

This is 27% below the peer average of $0.74 per Mcfe. The chart on the right shows unhedged free cash flow breakeven prices for Antero and our peer group. Antero has the lowest breakeven at $2.29 per Mcf, driven by our low maintenance capital requirements and our ability to capture premium pricing that both Dave and Justin detailed earlier. I'll close my comments on Slide number 10 titled Low Debt Balance Provides Flexibility. During the first quarter, we called the remaining $97,000,000 of our 2026 senior notes, pushing our nearest maturity out to 2029.

[Michael Kennedy, Senior VP of Finance & CFO at Antero Resources]

At March 31, our total debt is just $1,300,000,000 which is the lowest debt level among our peers. Based on today's current strip, our guidance suggests substantial free cash flow in 2025 and beyond. While we will target a fifty-fifty debt reduction and share buyback strategy, we intend to remain opportunistic pending market fluctuations. With that, I will now turn the call over to the operator for questions.

[Operator]

Thank you. We will now be conducting a question and answer session. Our first question comes from the line of Arun Jayaram with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.

[Arun Jayaram, Analyst at JPMorgan Chase]

Good morning. Dave, I wanted to see if you could maybe clarify the marketing agreement for LPGs. As you mentioned, 90% of your LPG volumes are locked in with firm sales at a double digit cent per gallon of premium to Mont Belvieu. So a couple of questions around that would be, does this reflect your total volumes? Or is that just your exported volumes?

[Arun Jayaram, Analyst at JPMorgan Chase]

Because as you know, in your weeklies, you continue to highlight an annual mix of 50% international versus domestic?

[David Cannelongo, Senior Vice President of Liquids Marketing & Transportation at Antero Resources]

Yes, Arun. So that 90% that I was speaking to is our export volumes. But when you look at our domestic sales as well, those are all locked in essentially at a 90 plus percent level in addition to that. So really our entire C3 plus barrel is in that high over 90% locked in premiums to Bellevue for the year, which is why we felt so confident in the guidance range that gave back in February.

[Arun Jayaram, Analyst at JPMorgan Chase]

Is there a general cost to enter into these agreements or is it just you're giving the surety of supply, hence you get those premiums?

[David Cannelongo, Senior Vice President of Liquids Marketing & Transportation at Antero Resources]

Yes. On the domestic side, it's very common for those to be term deals that people lock in on an annual basis. Typically, that's an April to March contract year. And then on the export side, as we've talked about in prior years, sometimes we take an approach where we go and term up a lot of the volumes. Other times we go into the spot market.

[David Cannelongo, Senior Vice President of Liquids Marketing & Transportation at Antero Resources]

We really try and be opportunistic with what we see as the fundamentals and try and make the right call that's going to maximize the value. You've kind of seen us do that. Three of the six years we've been on Mariner 2019, '20 '20 '4 and 2025. We've really kind of called those market dynamics correctly and been able to optimize our price realization. So we took advantage of some strength that was in the market early in 2025 to lock in some strong premiums, obviously, and we've not done that.

[David Cannelongo, Senior Vice President of Liquids Marketing & Transportation at Antero Resources]

The spot market has been much weaker here in the mid single digits. So just trying to make the right calls at the right times when the market provides those opportunities.

[Arun Jayaram, Analyst at JPMorgan Chase]

Great. And maybe my follow-up for you, Paul. There has recently been some stepped up M and A as we think about some of the gas levered producers in U. S. Shale.

[Arun Jayaram, Analyst at JPMorgan Chase]

And we're hearing about maybe some more deal potential as the year kind of plays on. So I wanted to see if you could talk a little bit about how you're thinking about inorganic investment opportunities within U. S. Shale?

[Michael Kennedy, Senior VP of Finance & CFO at Antero Resources]

Yes, Arun, this is Mike. We obviously have a very strong organic leasing program that's adding locations at less than $1,000,000 I think you saw in the first quarter it was $850,000 We continue to lease those acres in and amongst and exactly right next to our current development. So as long as that's available to us, that's what M and A would have to compete with. And as I mentioned, our development program is so strong just because of our infrastructure, our midstream, our Feet, everything we've talked about on today's call. And it really is just developing that next pad over and it's a contiguous acreage position.

[Michael Kennedy, Senior VP of Finance & CFO at Antero Resources]

So any M and A would have to compete with that and that's very much a challenge to see. In addition to that, you look at our inventory, it's over twenty years. Half of it's liquid, half of it's dry gas. Next ten years liquids after that dry gas. So we have substantial length in our inventory.

[Michael Kennedy, Senior VP of Finance & CFO at Antero Resources]

So once again, there's no real need to do M and A. If it's ever opportunistic and very accretive to us and makes sense to us, of course, we would look at it, but there's no need for M and A for Antero.

[Arun Jayaram, Analyst at JPMorgan Chase]

Great. Thanks a lot.

[Michael Kennedy, Senior VP of Finance & CFO at Antero Resources]

Our

[Operator]

next question comes from the line of John Freeman with Raymond James. Please proceed with your question.

[John Freeman, Managing Director at Raymond James Financial]

Thanks. Good morning, guys. I first wanted to touch base on the buybacks. As you highlighted, Mike, all stepped into that earlier than sort of the original plan of sort of taking down the 500,000,000 on the debt and then going to that kind of fifty-fifty debt reduction of buybacks. So I just want to make sure that I understood right, Mike.

[John Freeman, Managing Director at Raymond James Financial]

Right now, is the plan now going forward that it's going to be kind of a fifty-fifty sort of debt reduction versus buybacks from this point forward as opposed to waiting until the full $500,000,000 had been taken down?

[Michael Kennedy, Senior VP of Finance & CFO at Antero Resources]

Yes, John. Yes, we're opportunistic and we're trying to be We didn't think we'd get this opportunity to buy shares at these prices. I mean, you look at our fundamental outlook, it's as strong as ever. And to have the shares valued at where it is today is an opportunity for us.

[Michael Kennedy, Senior VP of Finance & CFO at Antero Resources]

So that's why we pivoted towards share buybacks. We have a lot of visibility into our business and our cash flow generation and we don't really have any debt. So or very little debt, no maturities till 2019. So we've never really been in this position where we can see our cash flow generation not seeing it be reflected in the market. And so we're able to capitalize on that.

[Michael Kennedy, Senior VP of Finance & CFO at Antero Resources]

But the opportunity is more towards the debt side. We could pivot towards that. But at today's stock levels and share and value levels, we pivoted towards this fifty-fifty strategy basically in March.

[John Freeman, Managing Director at Raymond James Financial]

That's great. Yes, that makes sense. The follow-up question just on the hedging strategy and you all did sort of indicate you all were moving in this direction with maybe looking to do some collars in 2026 and understand that they're pretty wide collar, so you're still getting to participate in the upside. But just want to have an idea is, should we expect that you all would continue to increase that hedge percentage in 2026? Or is this sort of more opportunistic or kind of one off?

[John Freeman, Managing Director at Raymond James Financial]

Or is this some sort of change in the hedging strategy that we should think about going forward?

[Michael Kennedy, Senior VP of Finance & CFO at Antero Resources]

Yes, no change. Still very bullish. We have four pads that were that lean gas that Paul mentioned. One is on right now, one comes on in the third quarter and then two, in the early part of twenty six that we talked about earlier needing really like $2.75 plus to really generate high returns for us. Never in our careers have we seen future strip price with a four handle on it and you get a 2.2 or greater call SKU on that.

[Michael Kennedy, Senior VP of Finance & CFO at Antero Resources]

So to be able to lock in at $3 and I think today it's $3 by $7 plus. That's quite the dynamic to be able to lock in those returns on those pads not have to have DUCs like we did last year continue to produce those out at a high returns, high cash flows and still have upside to $7.40. So we're still very bullish. It's just quite dynamic for us with the call SKU and the elevated pricing in '26.

[John Freeman, Managing Director at Raymond James Financial]

Thanks. Appreciate it.

[Justin B. Fowler, Senior Vice President of Gas Marketing & Transportation at Antero Resources]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Doug Leggate with Wolfe Research. Please proceed with your question.

[John Abbott, E&P Research Vice President at Wolfe Research, LLC]

Good morning. This is John Abbott on for Doug Leggett. We want to start off going back to the capital returns here. I mean, you accelerated the buyback earlier as mentioned on one of the previous questions and you want to be opportunistic. So I guess the question is, you see the value in buying your shares now under the strategy, is there a point where you would probably not buy shares?

[John Abbott, E&P Research Vice President at Wolfe Research, LLC]

You see just in other words, you generate more cash at higher gas prices. So do you buy more shares or do you conserve do you keep cash on the balance sheet? How do you think about that dynamic going forward for buybacks?

[Michael Kennedy, Senior VP of Finance & CFO at Antero Resources]

Yes. No, we always see value in buying back our shares. Antero is a tremendous company. We always want to be interested in buying back shares. But it's common sense.

[Michael Kennedy, Senior VP of Finance & CFO at Antero Resources]

What we found is when you're counter cyclical, that's when you generate the highest returns and buying them back. And then when your share price is at a high point or higher point, buying down debt always accrues to the equity as well. So it's kind of just a balance. You're just trying to be opportunistic by low when you can.

[John Abbott, E&P Research Vice President at Wolfe Research, LLC]

Appreciate it. And appreciated the discussion during the opening remarks on the NGL macro. Maybe a couple of questions with respect to NGLs. Maybe with regards to your inventory, I mean how do you would you sort of parse out the breakeven of your NGL inventory? I mean not all acreage is sort of the same.

[John Abbott, E&P Research Vice President at Wolfe Research, LLC]

Is there a point when you would reduce activity if you saw a certain NGL price? Is there a level of minimum level of activity that you would wish to maintain? How do you think of those dynamics? Granted, I understand you're still Yes.

[Michael Kennedy, Senior VP of Finance & CFO at Antero Resources]

You got to compare it to natural gas prices. So a good example is last year, averaged $2.27 natural gas NYMEX, but because C3 plus liquids were in the 40s, we generated on an unhedged basis over $70,000,000 of free cash flow. So that's how our breakeven last year was at $2.20. We mentioned today's comments $2.29 in the first quarter with the $40 C3 plus. Just looking in the out years right now even with the backwardation of oil being in the high 50s and that would put C3 plus in the low 30s at today's natural gas strip, Antero is still generating $1,000,000,000 plus free cash flow every year.

[Michael Kennedy, Senior VP of Finance & CFO at Antero Resources]

So you got to compare it to natural gas prices. Obviously, there's a dynamic there that if you have low oil prices and low C3 plus prices, you're probably going to have low associated gas and thus high natural gas prices. That's why Antero is so well positioned, really has no constraints around infrastructure. We always talk about that transport midstream, but it's also diversity of product. Being such a large natural gas producer and such a large liquids producer puts us in good shape with low debt obviously.

[John Abbott, E&P Research Vice President at Wolfe Research, LLC]

Appreciate it. Thank you very much for taking our questions.

[Paul Rady, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer at Antero Resources]

Thanks, Doug.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Kevin McCarthy with Pickering Energy Partners. Please proceed with your question.

[Kevin MacCurdy, Managing Director at Pickering Energy Partners]

Hey, good morning. My first question is more strategic. Some of your gas peers have announced well received plans to grow volumes. I know that you see a lot of potential in just running a maintenance program. But as you look out over the next five to ten years, what are the market dynamics that would incentivize you to grow volumes?

[Kevin MacCurdy, Managing Director at Pickering Energy Partners]

And is there any operational constraint in doing so?

[Michael Kennedy, Senior VP of Finance & CFO at Antero Resources]

The market would be around where we talked about the local gas demand, those power plants that Justin highlighted, data centers, anything locally that where you flow our gas. I mean, we have over 1,000 dry gas locations that are well above two Bcf per 1,000 over in the eastern portion of our fields. We have ample inventory to grow. We have the local midstream capacity within Terro Midstream. It's really just if there's that local demand.

[Michael Kennedy, Senior VP of Finance & CFO at Antero Resources]

We're not going to grow into basis local basis without the demand meeting the need for the supply. So that's what would be required. If you have to make future commitments on Feet or processing or whatnot, that's not something we're interested in. Our Feet and processing are almost full right now. They actually are full or above nameplate on the processing.

[Michael Kennedy, Senior VP of Finance & CFO at Antero Resources]

So that's why we pursue maintenance capital. But if you did get local demand that demanded our gas, we could fill that very easily.

[Kevin MacCurdy, Managing Director at Pickering Energy Partners]

Great. Thank you for that detail. And as a follow-up, another question on the LPG sales. You had the foresight to lock in the premiums for 2025 before the ARBs closed. But as you look into 2026, if there's no pricing advantage to sell to either one of the international either one or both of the international markets, what is your flexibility to sell volumes between The U.

[Kevin MacCurdy, Managing Director at Pickering Energy Partners]

S. Markets and international? Thanks.

[Michael Kennedy, Senior VP of Finance & CFO at Antero Resources]

Yes. So I wouldn't say the ARP is closed. It's just come down a bit. I think what Dave mentioned is what we saw was pretty premium pricing for '25 that more than matched our premium pricing in '24 and we saw it in January. So our liquids department is very adept and very agile and so they were able to capture those premiums.

[Michael Kennedy, Senior VP of Finance & CFO at Antero Resources]

When you can capture a $0.15 premium versus what you average maybe $0.11 in 2024 and lock that in, that was very attractive to us. And they really look at the export capacity of The U. S, if the new dock capacity is coming on, if the local production is going to meet that, there's a lot of dynamics. So they do a great job in a really detailed and thorough analysis, probably the best in the business in doing that. And so we'll do that same analysis and we do it on a daily basis, but we'll continue to do that analysis throughout the year and then the '26.

[Michael Kennedy, Senior VP of Finance & CFO at Antero Resources]

And Dave mentioned it really goes till the March. So through the next year, we'll continue to analyze and we'll make the proper decisions next beginning of next year.

[Kevin MacCurdy, Managing Director at Pickering Energy Partners]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Leo Mariani with ROTH Capital Partners. Please proceed with your question.

[Leo Mariani, Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst at Roth Capital Partners, LLC]

I wanted to just follow-up a little bit on the commentary around the split between debt paydown and buyback. Got the fifty-fifty, clear on that. But just in the first quarter, if I just look at the pure numbers, it's just over $200,000,000 of debt that you paid down. And in the first quarter, I think it was only a $10,000,000 buyback. Obviously, you did some subsequently here in April to get to the 92,000,000 But on the fifty-fifty, are you guys going to be looking at that kind of on a full year basis on the fifty-fifty because you obviously skewed much higher to debt pay down in the first quarter.

[Leo Mariani, Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst at Roth Capital Partners, LLC]

So just trying to get a sense if there's more room for share buyback potentially this year. And obviously, on the debt side, you've got just over 300,000,000 on your revolver left, so maybe not quite as much to pay down here in the near term.

[Michael Kennedy, Senior VP of Finance & CFO at Antero Resources]

Yes. Think you saw the opportunistic. I mean we looked at just pulled it off the screen. We looked at the VWAP so far year to date in Antero's shares and we bought back at a 10% lower level than the average of our shares. We would have bought back earlier, but there was no disconnect in the January and February price.

[Michael Kennedy, Senior VP of Finance & CFO at Antero Resources]

All of sudden in March, I think you saw it across all markets, but uncertainty became apparent and so things became on sale. So we decided to capture that and then we put in a 10b5-one plan to continue to buy throughout this. And so that's what we'll do going forward just being opportunistic. There's no hard and fast rule fifty-fifty. We could go more share buybacks.

[Michael Kennedy, Senior VP of Finance & CFO at Antero Resources]

If this continues, we could go less and pay down the debt a little bit more. But as you mentioned, we don't have much debt left. So ultimately, the share buybacks is going to be a greater and greater percentage of our free cash flow use.

[Leo Mariani, Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst at Roth Capital Partners, LLC]

Okay. Makes a lot of sense for sure. And then obviously, your macro discussion, you talked about potential for in basin demand, rattled off a couple projects that have kind of been announced. Can you maybe provide a little bit more color on where Antero is, and kind of the discussions to try to maybe capture some of this in basin demand or some of these processes like a Homer City fairly competitive? Is there kind of a auction for some of that type of supply?

[Leo Mariani, Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst at Roth Capital Partners, LLC]

Maybe just can provide some more color on where Antero is on these projects?

[Michael Kennedy, Senior VP of Finance & CFO at Antero Resources]

Well, Antero is obviously in the mix being one of the largest producers and definitely in West Virginia that CPV power plant is right in the middle of our field. So we'll have competitive advantages there. We're not interested in selling our gas really at local basis. So because right now we obviously get Henry Hub and that's where our gas goes. So we do have a floor kind of on the pricing at least on our maintenance capital program.

[Michael Kennedy, Senior VP of Finance & CFO at Antero Resources]

Future growth maybe in the coming years maybe that's something that we would look at. But we're really focused on our firm transport and get into LPG right now. But we are having discussions with the local players, of course, because we are such a large producer.

[Leo Mariani, Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst at Roth Capital Partners, LLC]

Okay. Thank you.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Roger Read with Wells Fargo. Please proceed with your question.

[Roger Read, Senior Energy Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities]

Yes, thanks. Good morning.

[Michael Kennedy, Senior VP of Finance & CFO at Antero Resources]

Hi,

[Roger Read, Senior Energy Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities]

I'm just sort of curious, I mean, it sounds like demand picked up a little quicker on the LNG side, no real change to your full year guidance. What would make you maybe a little more optimistic on the production side? And then also as a follow-up there to Leo's question, just kind of thinking in basin demand, where are you in terms of visibility on some of the improvements there?

[Michael Kennedy, Senior VP of Finance & CFO at Antero Resources]

Well, we got a lot of visibility. We are the gas feed liquids producer in Appalachia. So a visibility, but we're pursuing the maintenance capital plan because that fills our firm transport, fills our processing and allows us to produce at the highest returns with the premium pricing from the NGLs and the natural gas. So no change to that. Like we mentioned, it would have to be substantial local demand and we would our supply would meet the timing of that demand and that's not in this year and we don't see much for next year either.

[Michael Kennedy, Senior VP of Finance & CFO at Antero Resources]

So we'll be at maintenance capital during that timeframe. But anything post that when we mentioned these projects, we could be a participant in those.

[Roger Read, Senior Energy Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities]

Okay. That's it for me. I'll turn it back. Thanks.

[Paul Rady, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer at Antero Resources]

All right. Thanks. Thank you.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Paul Diamond with Citi. Please proceed with your question.

[Paul Diamond, Analyst at Citigroup]

Good morning all. Thanks for taking the time. Just a quick one for me sticking on the in basin demand dialogue. I know with all the Feet with all your Feet on the books and maintenance capital pretty much filling that, I guess, trying to drill down a little bit on what type of pricing like in Basin, like what collapse of the basis in Appalachia would you need to see to actually like sign on to that? Is that your breakevens plus X?

[Paul Diamond, Analyst at Citigroup]

Or is that more of like a solid number? How do you guys view that?

[Michael Kennedy, Senior VP of Finance & CFO at Antero Resources]

Yes. No, we really view it through NYMEX Henry Hub lens. I mean, that's how we've been talking about it, whether it's ethane, other projects or natural gas, because that's what you can hedge for years and years and years. The basis could be strong at any particular moment, but then in the shoulder months, summer months, you could see weakness. And so that's why when you look out, you see pretty wide basis locally even though there is very strong pricing in the first quarter.

[Michael Kennedy, Senior VP of Finance & CFO at Antero Resources]

So kind of more of a long term look. Can you lock it in? Can you hedge it? Can you count on it? Can you spend billions of dollars of capital to support it?

[Michael Kennedy, Senior VP of Finance & CFO at Antero Resources]

That's why we looked at it and that's why everything we've got really prices off NYMEX Henry Hub.

[Paul Diamond, Analyst at Citigroup]

Got it. So there's the I would guess little expectation that there would be any sort of discount to Hub over the long term in order to get you guys to actually move?

[Michael Kennedy, Senior VP of Finance & CFO at Antero Resources]

Yes. I mean, you could have a contract that's Henry Hub minus something, but it would have to be floating on that Henry Hub, having a floating on local basis. You can have such disconnects at certain times that it's hard to put a lot of capital behind that.

[Paul Diamond, Analyst at Citigroup]

Makes perfect sense. I'll leave it there. Thanks for your time.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

[Neil Mehta, Head of Americas Natural Resources Equity Research at Goldman Sachs]

Hey, team. Good morning.

[Neil Mehta, Head of Americas Natural Resources Equity Research at Goldman Sachs]

Just want to stay on the gas macro, the dry gas macro and get your perspective with lower oil prices and we'll see what happens here over the next couple of days. How you're thinking about associated supply in The United States particularly out of the Permian And does that represent a tailwind that can make natural gas despite the risk potentially around industrial demand more protected from economic volatility?

[Michael Kennedy, Senior VP of Finance & CFO at Antero Resources]

Yes, We've never really seen a better setup from a natural gas demand growth over the coming quarters, years versus supply. I mean, you're coming into this already with a low rig count, very low in the Haynesville and Appalachian other natural gas basins. If you put on top of that Permian rigs coming off and no real associated gas growth from there or muted, I mean that just sets up for an explosive kind of natural gas environment going forward with the LPG I mean with the LNG demand and kind of electrification of America supporting the demand side of things. So very exciting and definitely would be a tailwind for natural gas.

[Neil Mehta, Head of Americas Natural Resources Equity Research at Goldman Sachs]

So two long term questions as it relates to gas. Mean the bull side is we have to price the Haynesville. I know you guys don't have exposure there. I'm sure you've done a lot of work to try to benchmark what you think the marginal Haynesville cost would be if that's the price setting mechanism. Do you have a strong view on that?

[Neil Mehta, Head of Americas Natural Resources Equity Research at Goldman Sachs]

And then the offset for those who are more bearish is the global gas market does flip it seems like into decent oversupply. Does that provide a governor on how high we can ultimately go? And so is that even a relevant marker or do we have to price to TTF minus? So just thoughts around that.

[Michael Kennedy, Senior VP of Finance & CFO at Antero Resources]

Yes. No, we think Angel is probably $4 plus and that's probably the inventory right now and that runs out pretty quick. I mean no one really talks about inventory fatigue, but you'll definitely see it across the basin. So all this gas supply is going to have to come from not your Appalachian low cost producers. It's going to come from ever increasing second tier acreage and second tier basins.

[Michael Kennedy, Senior VP of Finance & CFO at Antero Resources]

So that price will continue to go up.

[Neil Mehta, Head of Americas Natural Resources Equity Research at Goldman Sachs]

In global gas, how do you think about that headwind on the other side?

[Michael Kennedy, Senior VP of Finance & CFO at Antero Resources]

Well, I don't think about headwind if it's pricing off TTF. So we got Justin here, what's the kind of the tolling and the shipping if the arm goes to TTF, is it TTF less three fifty, TTF less four or something like that?

[Justin B. Fowler, Senior Vice President of Gas Marketing & Transportation at Antero Resources]

Yes. Good morning, Neil. It's Justin. When we look on the longer dated balance of '25 through Cal twenty eight, call it, the spreads still look very healthy to the European and Asian markets. So we feel like that those netbacks will support continued buying and growth.

[Justin B. Fowler, Senior Vice President of Gas Marketing & Transportation at Antero Resources]

You continue to see FSRUs being set globally at multiple locations, various countries that are going to continue to consume natural gas because it is the fuel of the future here. Continuing to see that demand getting built out.

[Neil Mehta, Head of Americas Natural Resources Equity Research at Goldman Sachs]

Okay. Thanks, Justin. Thanks, team.

[Michael Kennedy, Senior VP of Finance & CFO at Antero Resources]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Betty Jiang with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.

[Betty Jiang, Senior Equity Research Analyst - US Integrated Oil and E&Ps at Barclays]

Hello. Good morning. Thank you for taking my question. I have a question back to the C3 plus premium guidance. So if you guys are getting $0.15 per gallon premium on 90% of your export volume, so that equates to roughly $6 premium.

[Betty Jiang, Senior Equity Research Analyst - US Integrated Oil and E&Ps at Barclays]

Just trying to square that to your full year guidance of $2 Are you just assuming a bigger discount on the domestic volumes or that guidance could be conservative?

[Michael Kennedy, Senior VP of Finance & CFO at Antero Resources]

That's just on the exports. So and on propane, the LPG has got a lot more in it obviously butane, natural gasoline, all that. So that's just on the propane portion that is exported. And so when you sell it locally, it's more like a more like a Melville price. So for the propane and then the butane and natural gasoline is not what that premium is.

[Michael Kennedy, Senior VP of Finance & CFO at Antero Resources]

It's not near that $0.15

[Betty Jiang, Senior Equity Research Analyst - US Integrated Oil and E&Ps at Barclays]

Got it. Dollars $0.01 5 just on the propane piece? Oh, got it. On the export propane, yes. Got it.

[Betty Jiang, Senior Equity Research Analyst - US Integrated Oil and E&Ps at Barclays]

And then separately on the GP and T, could you maybe talk about some of the disruptions or dynamic for 1Q? And also follow-up on the comment earlier about processing plants running full and running above nameplate. How does that translate to your liquids mix over time? Do you see your C3 plus mix much above 20% longer term?

[Michael Kennedy, Senior VP of Finance & CFO at Antero Resources]

So if you read the AM Antero Midstream release, you saw that our processing was more than full. I think it was like 104% or something like that on Sherwood and Smithburg Processing Facility. So you can see there. There won't be any change to our current mix of liquids. Then on your GP and T, remember there is a variable component on natural gas prices as they go higher.

[Michael Kennedy, Senior VP of Finance & CFO at Antero Resources]

We do have transport expense, fuel expense on the transport and taxes. So our general rule of thumb is for every dollar of natural gas price higher you get $0.10 higher variable price on the GP and T. So that's why you saw it a little bit higher than our guidance range. It comes back down throughout the year as you have a little bit lower pricing in the second and third quarter.

[Betty Jiang, Senior Equity Research Analyst - US Integrated Oil and E&Ps at Barclays]

Got it. That's helpful. Thank you.

[Paul Rady, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer at Antero Resources]

Sure. Thank you.

[Operator]

We have reached the end of the question and answer session. I would now like to turn the floor back over to management for closing comments.

[Brendan Krueger, VP of Finance & Treasurer at Antero Resources]

Yes. Thank you for joining us on today's call. Please reach out with any further questions. Thank you.

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation and have a wonderful day.

Participants

Executives

• Brendan Krueger, VP of Finance & Treasurer
• Paul Rady, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer
• David Cannelongo, Senior Vice President of Liquids Marketing & Transportation
• Justin B. Fowler, Senior Vice President of Gas Marketing & Transportation
• Michael Kennedy, Senior VP of Finance & CFO

Analysts

• Arun Jayaram, Analyst at JPMorgan Chase
• John Freeman, Managing Director at Raymond James Financial
• John Abbott, E&P Research Vice President at Wolfe Research, LLC
• Kevin MacCurdy, Managing Director at Pickering Energy Partners
• Leo Mariani, Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst at Roth Capital Partners, LLC
• Roger Read, Senior Energy Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities
• Paul Diamond, Analyst at Citigroup
• Neil Mehta, Head of Americas Natural Resources Equity Research at Goldman Sachs
• Betty Jiang, Senior Equity Research Analyst - US Integrated Oil and E&Ps at Barclays