Cummins Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
May 5, 2025
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Operator

welcome to Cummings Incorporated First Quarter Earnings Release. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. We ask that you please limit to one question and one follow-up. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

Operator

I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Mr. Chris Kullo, Vice President, Investor Relations.

Chris Clulow
Chris Clulow
Vice President-Investor Relations at Cummins

Thank you, Rob. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our teleconference today to discuss Cummins' results for the first quarter of twenty twenty five. Participating with me today are Jennifer Rumsey, our Chair and Chief Executive Officer and Mark Smith, our Chief Financial Officer. We will all be available to answer questions at the end of the teleconference. Before we start, please note that some of the information that you will hear or be given today will consist of forward looking statements within the meaning of the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934.

Chris Clulow
Chris Clulow
Vice President-Investor Relations at Cummins

Such statements express our forecast, expectations, hopes, beliefs and intentions on strategies regarding the future. Our actual future results could differ materially from those projected in such forward looking statements because of a number of risks and uncertainties. More information regarding such risks and uncertainties is available in the forward looking disclosure statements in the slide deck and our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, particularly the Risk Factors section of our most recently filed Annual Report on Form 10 ks and any subsequently filed quarterly reports on Form 10 Q. During the course of this call, we will be discussing certain non GAAP financial measures and we refer you to our website for the reconciliation of those measures to GAAP financial measures. Our press release with a copy of the financial statements and a copy of today's webcast

Chris Clulow
Chris Clulow
Vice President-Investor Relations at Cummins

on our

Chris Clulow
Chris Clulow
Vice President-Investor Relations at Cummins

website within the Investor Relations section at cummins.com. With that out of the way, I'll turn you over to our Chair and CEO, Jennifer Rumsey, to kick us off.

Jennifer Rumsey
Jennifer Rumsey
President & Chief Executive Officer at Cummins

Thank you, Chris, and good morning, everyone. As you can see from our press release and earnings material, we delivered very strong results in the first quarter led by record performance in our Power Systems segment. We are entering unchartered territory as the trade tariffs start to have a more significant impact beginning in the second quarter. The breadth and changing nature of the tariffs have introduced a great degree of uncertainty and mean that at this time we are unable to predict with confidence our expected performance for the year. It is important to note that we serve many different end markets, some with long backlogs and clear secular themes in our Power Systems business, some less sensitive to short term economic sentiment such as our aftermarket business and other markets where customers tend to flex demand more quickly when business confidence weakens.

Jennifer Rumsey
Jennifer Rumsey
President & Chief Executive Officer at Cummins

The duration of uncertainty and extent of tariffs will influence how much and for how long demand is impacted. Cummins is in a strong position strategically and financially with an experienced leadership team, well versed in navigating through periods of uncertainty. We look forward to restoring our guidance when we have more stability in the outlook. Now I will move on to some of our highlights from our first quarter. Then I will discuss our sales and end market trends by region.

Jennifer Rumsey
Jennifer Rumsey
President & Chief Executive Officer at Cummins

I will then provide an update on how uncertainties in our current environment may impact our end markets. Mark will then take you through more details of our first quarter financial performance. In the first quarter, we continued to make progress execution of our Destination Zero strategy. In our engine segment, we introduced the much anticipated X10 as a part of our common Helms platforms. This engine replaces both the L9 and X12 engine platforms and will deliver a new level of performance, durability and efficiency for heavy and medium duty customers.

Jennifer Rumsey
Jennifer Rumsey
President & Chief Executive Officer at Cummins

Alongside the X15 and B Series, the X10 provides customers with the power solution to meet their unique operational requirements while maintaining the performance and reliability for which Cummins is known. In addition, we unveiled the new Cummins B7.2 diesel engine that brings the latest technology and advancements to one of our most proven platforms. The new engine will feature a slightly higher displacement and is designed to be a global platform, which creates flexibility for different applications and duty cycles. Both the B7.2 and X10 engines will be manufactured at Rocky Mount engine plant in North Carolina and will go into production in North America in 2027. In our Power Systems segment, we announced the acquisition of assets of First Mode, a leader in retrofit hybrid solutions for mining and rail operations.

Jennifer Rumsey
Jennifer Rumsey
President & Chief Executive Officer at Cummins

This technology represents the first commercially available retrofit hybrid system for mining equipment, significantly reducing total cost of ownership while advancing decarbonization and operations. This acquisition reinforces Cummins' commitment to providing innovative and effective decarbonization solutions while meeting the needs of our customers on their transition to a lower carbon future. Lastly, our Accelera by Cummins segment announced the supply of 100 megawatt proton exchange membrane or PEM electrolyzer system for BP's Linden Green hydrogen project in Germany. The hydrogen generation system will be the largest electrolyzer system assembled by Accelera to date and will be manufactured in Accelera's new electrolyzer plant in Spain. Once fully commissioned in 2027, the 100 megawatt electrolyzer system will produce up to 11,000 tons of green hydrogen per year.

Jennifer Rumsey
Jennifer Rumsey
President & Chief Executive Officer at Cummins

Now I will comment on the overall company performance for the first quarter of twenty twenty five and cover some of our key markets. Demand for our products remains strong across many of our key markets and regions, offset by softening in the North America truck market. Revenues for the first quarter were $8,200,000,000 a decrease of 3% compared to the first quarter of twenty twenty four. EBITDA was 1,500,000,000 or 17.9% compared with $2,600,000,000 or 30.6% a year ago. First quarter twenty twenty four results included a gain net of transaction costs and other expenses of $1,300,000,000 related to the Atmos divestiture and $29,000,000 of restructuring expenses.

Jennifer Rumsey
Jennifer Rumsey
President & Chief Executive Officer at Cummins

Excluding the one time gain and the costs related to the separation of Atmos as well as restructuring expenses, EBITDA and gross margin dollars improved compared to the first quarter of twenty twenty This improvement in profitability was driven by the benefit of higher power generation and aftermarket volumes, pricing and operational efficiency, which more than exceeded the impact of lower North America truck volumes and the separation of Atmos. For our Power Systems business in particular, we had record performance in both EBITDA dollars and percentage in the first quarter as we continue to benefit from operational improvements and strong end markets. Our first quarter revenues in North America decreased by 1% compared to 2024. Industry production of heavy duty trucks for the first quarter was 63,000 units, down 18% from 2024 levels, while our heavy duty unit sales were down 21,000 or 21% from 2024. Industry production of medium duty trucks was 32,000 units in the first quarter of twenty twenty five, a decrease of 21%, while our unit sales were 31,000, down 14% from 2024.

Jennifer Rumsey
Jennifer Rumsey
President & Chief Executive Officer at Cummins

We shipped 29,000 engines to Stellantis for use in their van pickups in the first quarter of twenty twenty five, down 25% from 2024 levels. Revenues for North America power generation increased by 12%, driven primarily by continued strong data center demand. Our international revenues decreased by 5% in the first quarter of twenty twenty five compared to a year ago. First quarter revenues in China, including joint ventures, were $1,800,000,000 an increase of 9% as accelerating data center demand and high domestic infrastructure demand more than offset lower export demand. Industry demand for medium and heavy duty trucks in China was 294,000 units, a decrease of 4% from last year.

Jennifer Rumsey
Jennifer Rumsey
President & Chief Executive Officer at Cummins

Our sales in units, including joint ventures, were 42,000, an increase of 6%. Industry demand for excavators in China in the first quarter Industry 61,000 units, an increase of 23% from 2024 levels. Our units sold were 11,000, an increase of 19%. The increase in the China market size is primarily due to domestic cyclical replacement demand, rural development and farmland renovation

Jennifer Rumsey
Jennifer Rumsey
President & Chief Executive Officer at Cummins

demand. Sales of power generation equipment in China increased 68% in the first quarter due to accelerating data center demand. First quarter revenues in India, including joint ventures, were $725,000,000 a decrease of 14% from the first quarter a year ago. Industry truck production was flat with 2024. Power generation revenues decreased by 11% in the first quarter as the prior year included a pre buy ahead of emissions regulations change.

Jennifer Rumsey
Jennifer Rumsey
President & Chief Executive Officer at Cummins

To summarize, we achieved impressive results in the first quarter with record financial performance in our Power Systems business. Looking ahead, there's heightened uncertainty about the pace of growth in the global economy due to tariffs, which could negatively impact demand for capital goods. Absent more clarity about the likely duration of elevated tariffs, we are not able to provide a reliable forecast for the remainder of this year. As a large U. S.

Jennifer Rumsey
Jennifer Rumsey
President & Chief Executive Officer at Cummins

Headquartered company with significant manufacturing in The U. S, we appreciate the administration support for American manufacturing. This support is crucial as we invest more than $1,000,000,000 in our engine and power systems manufacturing operations in The U. S. Over the next few years, employing people in nearly every state through our manufacturing plants and sales and service branches.

Jennifer Rumsey
Jennifer Rumsey
President & Chief Executive Officer at Cummins

As we evaluate our current manufacturing footprint and our exposure to tariff regulations, we believe we are well positioned because we primarily produce engines and gensets in the markets where we sell them. For instance, our medium duty, heavy duty and high horsepower engines as well as power generation products for U. S. Customers are manufactured in our plants located in Indiana, North Carolina, New York and Minnesota. However, like much of our industry, our component and supplier manufacturing will be affected by current tariff regulations, which could disrupt the global economy and ultimately lead to higher costs for consumers.

Jennifer Rumsey
Jennifer Rumsey
President & Chief Executive Officer at Cummins

In addition to trade and economic uncertainty, there is also uncertainty in North America emissions regulations for 2027. We continue to expect new NOx regulation to go in place in 2027 and are focused on launching our products on schedule, while also working with the administration as they explore options to lower the cost of existing regulations. While we believe our product plan is well positioned, the uncertainty and regulations along with economic uncertainties have led to a weaker than anticipated recent order and also has made pre buy for the second half of the year unlikely. In summary, we had a strong first quarter and continued our progress in improving EBITDA margins as we shared in our Analyst Day almost a year ago, with tariffs not a significant factor in our results. The economic environment has changed significantly over the past three months.

Jennifer Rumsey
Jennifer Rumsey
President & Chief Executive Officer at Cummins

We have an experienced leadership team that has demonstrated capability in managing through periods of uncertainty, and we will maintain focus on our customers, our employees and shareholders. We enter this period of heightened uncertainty in a position of strength and look forward to reinstating our guidance when some of the uncertainty has subsided. Now let me turn it over to Mark.

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO & VP at Cummins

Thank you, Jen, and good morning, everyone. We delivered strong revenue and profitability in the first quarter. First quarter revenues were $8,200,000,000 down 3% from a year ago. Sales in North America decreased 1%, while the international revenues declined 5%. The separation of Atmos in mid March and the prior year resulted in year over year sales decline of around 4% to the total consolidated sales, meaning that we were close to flat on an underlying basis.

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO & VP at Cummins

EBITDA was $1,500,000,000 or 17.9% of sales for the quarter compared to $2,600,000,000 or 30.6 percent of sales a year ago, which of course included a one time gain on the divestiture of the Atmos business of $1,300,000,000 net of transaction costs. Also a year ago, we incurred $29,000,000 of restructuring expenses. To provide clarity on operational performance and allow comparison to the prior year, I'm excluding the one time gain and the costs related to the separation of Atmos and the restructuring expenses in my following comments. EBITDA was $1,500,000,000 or 17.9% of sales for the quarter compared to adjusted $1,300,000,000 or 15.5% of sales a year ago. The higher EBITDA was driven by higher power generation and aftermarket volumes, positive price cost driven by operational improvements, partially offset by lower North America truck volumes and the separation of Atmos.

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO & VP at Cummins

Now let's look at each line item a little more. Gross margin for the quarter was $2,200,000,000 or 26.4% of sales, up from $2,100,000,000 or 24.5% last year. The improved margins were driven by favorable pricing, higher aftermarket and operational improvements, especially in Power Systems. Selling, administrative and research expenses were $1,100,000,000 or 13.6% of sales compared to $1,200,000,000 or 13.8% of sales a year ago. Joint venture income of $131,000,000 increased $8,000,000 from the prior year, primarily driven by higher technology fees within our engine business and higher volumes in our Cummins Chongqing joint venture within Power Systems.

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO & VP at Cummins

Other income was $23,000,000 compared to $21,000,000 from the prior year as gains on investments related to company owned life insurance more than offset the negative impact of foreign currency revaluation. Interest expense was $77,000,000 a decrease of $12,000,000 from the prior year, primarily driven by a lower average debt balance as a result of the separation of Atmos and lower weighted average interest rates. The all in effective tax rate in the first quarter was 23.9% including 7,000,000 or $05 per diluted share of favorable discrete tax items. All in net earnings for the quarter were eight twenty four million dollars or $5.96 per diluted share compared to $2,000,000,000 or $14.3 per diluted share a year ago, which includes the net gain on the separation of Atmos, which was $1,300,000,000 or $9.08 per diluted share and restructuring expenses of $29,000,000 or point $15 per diluted share. Hopefully, we've now lapped all of those exclusions and adjustments and look forward to having less words around those in future quarters.

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO & VP at Cummins

All in operating cash flow was an outflow of $3,000,000 compared to an inflow of $276,000,000 a year ago, primarily driven by higher working capital. Now let me comment a little more on segment performance. For the Engine segment, first quarter revenues were $2,800,000,000 a decrease of 5% from a year ago. EBITDA was 16.5% up from 14.1% a year even on the lower truck volumes. The engine business benefited from pricing related to the launch of updated products in our light duty segment, stronger aftermarket volumes, operational efficiencies, good cost control and a modest increase in joint venture income.

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO & VP at Cummins

Components segment revenue was $2,700,000,000 a decrease of 20%, while EBITDA excluding cost related to the separation of Atmos decreased to 14.3% from 14.8% a year ago as lower on highway demand in North America and Europe and the dilutive impact of the Atmos separation were partially offset by the benefit from operational efficiencies. In the Distribution segment, revenues increased 15% from a year ago to $2,900,000,000 EBITDA also increased as a percent of sales to 12.9% compared to 11.6% of sales a year ago driven by higher power generation volumes, higher aftermarket and favorable pricing. In the Power Systems segment, revenues were $1,600,000,000 an increase of 19% and EBITDA was a record increasing from 17.1% to 23.6% sales driven by strong volume particularly in data center applications and rebuilds, favorable pricing and continued focus on operational improvement. Accelera revenues increased 11% to $103,000,000 driven by increased e mobility sales and electrolyzer installations arising from prior period orders. Our EBITDA loss was $86,000,000 compared to an EBITDA loss of $101,000,000 a year ago, as we lowered costs in existing operations, partially offset by additional losses in the Amplify Cell joint venture as it advances its operations.

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO & VP at Cummins

In summary, we delivered impressive profitability for the first quarter even as demand in North America truck markets declined. Uncertainty has increased due to trade tariffs resulting in a slowdown in the global movement of goods particularly between China and The U. S. It remains to be seen how long the tariffs remain in place and the impact that they have on business confidence and the demand for capital goods. Cummins is in a strong financial position to navigate through uncertainty with our industry leading portfolio of products and our global network we are well placed to support our customers.

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO & VP at Cummins

We look forward to reinstating our outlook when economic conditions become clearer along with hopefully a return to growth and greater prosperity here in The U. S. And in the global economy. In the meantime, we'll continue to focus on areas we can control in managing costs and optimizing working capital while meeting our customer commitments. We'll stay focused on our strategic priorities in what is likely to be a more complex operating environment in the coming months as the full impact of the current tariff levels has not yet been felt in our opinion.

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO & VP at Cummins

I want to close my prepared remarks by thanking Chris Clulo for his leadership in Investor Relations. He's moving to a new finance leadership role in operations and supply chain and will remain a key advisor to me and our business leaders as we navigate through the current challenges. Congratulations to Nick Erins in assuming the Investor Relations role. Nick and I look forward to meeting with investors and analysts in person in the coming weeks and months. We're very fortunate to have such a strong finance team that comes.

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO & VP at Cummins

Now let me turn it back over to Chris.

Chris Clulow
Chris Clulow
Vice President-Investor Relations at Cummins

Thank you, Mark. Out of consideration to others on the call, I would ask that you limit yourself to one question and a related follow-up. If you have an additional question, please rejoin the queue. Operator, we're ready for our first question.

Operator

Thank you. At this time, we'll be conducting a question and answer session. You. Our first question comes from Jamie Cook with Truist Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Jamie Cook
Jamie Cook
Managing Director - Equity Research at Truist Securities

Hi, good morning and nice quarter. I guess just my first question understanding you're not providing guidance, but based on what's been announced so far, there any way you can sort of help us quantify the gross or net tariff cost, you know what mean, that would impact your business and which segments are impacted the most? And then I guess my second question, just trying to understand which businesses have the most visibility like where your backlog sits today and just how you're handling pricing just concerned with some of the businesses that have greater backlog perhaps there's pricing risk associated with tariffs? Thank you.

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO & VP at Cummins

Thanks Jamie. I'll answer the first question and pass it on to Jen. We're not it's a very uncertain set of circumstances given the changing and evolving nature of the tariffs. So we're not going to quantify that today. Quite frankly, the bigger concern is the broader impact on the overall economic level environment.

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO & VP at Cummins

We've taken the steps without knowing what the tariffs were going to be. We've taken what steps we could to try and mitigate the impact. But beyond that to the extent that we incur tariffs, we're going to have to pass those on. We will of course as we get into actual results share what the impact of tariffs is going to be. There's inevitably going to be some lag between cost and recovery and we'll provide more color going forward.

Jennifer Rumsey
Jennifer Rumsey
President & Chief Executive Officer at Cummins

Yes. And in terms of what we're seeing in different markets, as I noted, we do have some different markets that we expect to be impacted in different ways by uncertainty in the economy. So we have a multi year order board in our power generation business and where there are customers that want to cancel or push out builds, we're able to reallocate those to other customers. So for the foreseeable future, we're feeling pretty confident in that part of the business. Aftermarket, of course, as customers may delay purchase decisions that can drive aftermarket business for us.

Jennifer Rumsey
Jennifer Rumsey
President & Chief Executive Officer at Cummins

The real market that is very sensitive is in the engine business and components, some of those on highway markets. And we're seeing that, right? You saw that on Friday with the heavy duty truck orders for April, where customers are waiting to see what happens and pausing in many cases on placing orders for new trucks. And so it's a little bit varied in different parts of our business with the big question of what will happen over the next couple of months. As Mark said, we're looking at passing on tariff costs where we can't mitigate those and continuing to invest in our new products and price for value that we're able to offer through those.

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO & VP at Cummins

It's certainly not a case that we're seeing a widespread change in short term momentum. There are obviously pockets where uncertainty seems to be more evidence. And it's that lack of clarity that's led us to believe the right thing to do right now is withdraw guidance versus constantly tweaking it for every latest change in momentum. So we didn't do that lightly. It's not we're not trying to foreshadow anything other than that the uncertainty is high, but it's very much varied.

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO & VP at Cummins

And hopefully, there's going to be a change and we'll be happy to reinstate that guidance as quickly as we can.

Operator

Our next question comes from Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

Jerry Revich
Jerry Revich
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Yes. Hi, good morning everyone. And Chris and Mick, congratulations. Want to ask Power Systems, really fantastic performance from an absolute basis and also relative to the Analyst Day targets sitting here today. Obviously, you've got some volatility on costs over next year.

Jerry Revich
Jerry Revich
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

But can you talk about where we should be thinking about margins moving forward for this business? Is the level of performance that we saw in this quarter? Should we be thinking about that as the run rate going forward as we think about what incremental volumes could look like over the next couple of years once we do get through this low visibility spot, Mark, that you spoke to?

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO & VP at Cummins

Yes. First, thanks and good morning, Jerry. What I'd say is there are no significant one off items in those results. So those are pure operating results. Of course, they're going to depend to some extent on the ebbs and flows of demand in individual segments.

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO & VP at Cummins

The only thing I'd point to in those results is that the aftermarket sales were very high. They're probably higher than we would have anticipated three months ago. So that right now that's the only thing that I would say looks probably higher than we expected. But other than that, the business has made tremendous improvement and it's continued to improve quarter on quarter. I would say the results were a little bit better than we expected, but mostly down to the strength in aftermarket, not the underlying performance of the business.

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO & VP at Cummins

So again, as long as the demand trends continue then it will be continuing to push to maintain very strong margins and improve where we can.

Jerry Revich
Jerry Revich
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Super. And then separately, you mentioned Jennifer in the prepared remarks just the uncertainty around EPA 27. In the scenario that EPA 27 doesn't move forward, can you just talk about Cummins' response in that environment? Because obviously, you folks have invested a lot in the next engine family. And how should we think about potential contract renegotiations 27 plus if we don't get a changeover with your large customers in on highway?

Jennifer Rumsey
Jennifer Rumsey
President & Chief Executive Officer at Cummins

Yes, great. Thanks, Gerry. Our current view is that likely we'll see revision and a rulemaking process around greenhouse gas Phase three. And so those regulations will change from what we have currently on the books and those go into effect, of course, starting in 02/1930. We still anticipate NOx regulation in 2027.

Jennifer Rumsey
Jennifer Rumsey
President & Chief Executive Officer at Cummins

We're actively working with EPA on their work to look at opportunities to lower cost and impact of those and probably one likely thing that will be looked at is this requirement for a longer emissions warranty that customers purchase. So today customers have the option when they buy a new vehicle to purchase extended warranty. Some of them do in particular in heavy duty, but the regulations as they are today would require everybody to purchase that. So we're continuing to invest in bringing these new platforms to market with that 27 regulation. It's difficult for me to speculate beyond that on other changes.

Jennifer Rumsey
Jennifer Rumsey
President & Chief Executive Officer at Cummins

But of course, if there are further changes, we'll look at revisiting what we're launching, but we intend to continue to launch as planned currently.

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO & VP at Cummins

Right. And that's the same question for all engine manufacturers, right? The whole industry has been investing in new products. So we're all wondering, hoping for clarity.

Operator

Our next question comes from Angel Castillo with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.

Angel Castillo
Angel Castillo
Executive Director at Morgan Stanley

Hi, good morning everyone and thanks for taking my question. Listen, know it's incredibly lot of uncertainty out there, incredible amount of uncertainty and just very wide range of outcomes. But I was wondering if you could perhaps talk a little bit more about one specific scenario for 2Q, meaning there's tariffs that are already in place today that you have a little bit more visibility to. So if we just kind of put aside maybe some of the reciprocal or areas that are paused, can you just talk to what is the impact or kind of margin and sales volume that you kind of see based on orders backlog in terms of paying today for 2Q? Just want to get a better sense kind of directionally what that implies very near term, except in the term

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO & VP at Cummins

I will say is the impact of tariffs on our financial results in Q1 was immaterial. So those results that you saw which were very strong had essentially close to zero financial impact. So that's going to change, right. It's going to change and it's probably it's going to change month to month as we certainly as we start to go through the second quarter, probably it's contributing to the biggest degree of uncertainty for the second half of the year in terms of the demand outlook. There's uncertainty now, but right, the visibility in the second half is we're not going to we will give the impacts of the tariffs as we go along in our financial results.

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO & VP at Cummins

Needless to say, I would say it's going to build over the next few months. There will be some lag inevitably between ordering, incurring, mitigating and recovering all of those costs. So I would say the second half, it we're going to see the fullest impact assuming the tariffs remain as they are, which is a big assumption. Hopefully, it's not a good assumption, but if we make it as an assumption, then you're going to start to see the fuller impact on consumers of equipment, right and suppliers in the second half of the year. So we will update you as we go along.

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO & VP at Cummins

There's a lot of work going on, a lot of moving parts. I know everyone wants to do these calculations. I will just step back and say, our broader concern is on the demand of the economic environment and the overall level of demand. The tariffs will be significant for Cummins from a cost basis based on where they are right now. We do we've got plans to manage through that and we'll provide that to you going forward.

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO & VP at Cummins

But as we said at the start, we've taken steps to mitigate where we incur them, we'll be looking to pass them on. There'll be some lag impact.

Angel Castillo
Angel Castillo
Executive Director at Morgan Stanley

Understood. That's very helpful. And maybe just a little bit of a bigger picture question. Just the power systems, you talked about some of the if I heard correctly, just some of the aftermarket strength. And particularly on the data center side, I tend to think about those kind of large backup generators as not really having a lot of aftermarket in the first place and again in that data center piece.

Angel Castillo
Angel Castillo
Executive Director at Morgan Stanley

So could you just talk about what you're seeing in terms of what's driving the aftermarket parts demand growth in power systems? And to the extent that you're seeing maybe more purchases of aftermarket related to maybe the data centers, what does that tell you about how your assets are being run? If it's is there some kind of maybe substituting for prime power wherever there is sort of more of a shortage or any other factors that might impact higher assets are being used?

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO & VP at Cummins

Yes, I appreciate the question. I think what's happening with power systems, which is I understand why I'm not being critical, like the lens is all zoned in on data centers. What you see in aftermarket parts is the use of all of the applications, mining, oil and gas, marine, general power gen for the broader economy, rebuild activity. All those things are contributing and in fact some price increases in aftermarket are all contributing to the strong revenue. It is not a data center driven phenomenon in the moment.

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO & VP at Cummins

Eventually, there will be some parts consumption on this, but it will be nothing like a mining engine or a frac rig. So I just wanted to clear that up. And I would just take this opportunity to remind people, the performance improvement in the Power Systems business is not driven by fair wins in the data center, right. There's been a broad based improvement. We're very appreciative of the opportunity to serve the data center customers and that's positive for our business.

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO & VP at Cummins

But the power systems leadership team has done a great job in driving up margins in most parts of what they do below the surface. Just want to make sure we're enthusiastic about data center demand. We're not changing that enthusiasm, but this is a much bigger story, the improvement and the aftermarket really relates to what's going on in years before. I hope that helped.

Jennifer Rumsey
Jennifer Rumsey
President & Chief Executive Officer at Cummins

Maybe just one other reminder as we think about the Power Systems business and its markets is there's a strong partnership between Power Systems and our distribution business. So just in Power Gen, about half of the revenue shows up in Power systems, the other half in the distribution business, similar in aftermarket, the distribution business plays an important role in the service that's provided to those customers.

Operator

Our next question comes from Tim Fine with Raymond James. Please proceed with your question.

Tim Thein
Tim Thein
Managing Director & Research Analyst at Raymond James Financial

Thank you. Good morning. And Mark, it was nice of Chris to cook up these new snazzy slides on his way. So it's good.

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO & VP at Cummins

No, they

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO & VP at Cummins

told me I was very old fashioned.

Tim Thein
Tim Thein
Managing Director & Research Analyst at Raymond James Financial

Yes. Not used to that. New look. Just on Mark, the business, maybe we could dig a bit more on the margin performance there. And specifically on you mentioned aftermarket being a contributor.

Tim Thein
Tim Thein
Managing Director & Research Analyst at Raymond James Financial

So maybe just a comment in terms of your expectation for parts as we look forward. And then I guess related to that on the JV income, know those technology fees can move around a bit, but that was a nice tailwind. What just as you think about kind of the balance of the year, if you're still expecting this is not just the engine business, but JV income to be a headwind to profits for the year. Is that still the expectation just given some of the uptick in China? So thank you.

Tim Thein
Tim Thein
Managing Director & Research Analyst at Raymond James Financial

Those are my two part question.

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO & VP at Cummins

Engine business, yes. So engine business margins were up right and we've been of course we set out our stall for improving margins. In the current quarter relative to the prior year JV income as you said improved from some of the tech fleet, they're going to be lumpy, probably won't continue at that rate. China haven't been seeing any dramatic changes in demand for some time. That's a past looking comment, not a forward looking comment.

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO & VP at Cummins

It's been pretty steady. And so yes, probably a little could be a little bit lower going forward. Product coverage or warranty as many people refer to it has been an enormous success story over multiple years of the engine business is the biggest driver of that. That really helped in the second quarter. For the company, our product coverage costs were 1.9% in the quarter.

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO & VP at Cummins

Typically normally, we'd be looking in the 2% to 2.5% range. That was a real positive. So strong parts demand, it remains to be we hope parts demand will remain resilient as we work through this period of uncertainty, but we don't know. We got some additional pricing where we launched products in the light duty part of the business. So there were many ingredients to the engine business improvement.

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO & VP at Cummins

But of course the full year, so we can say we're off to a good start. We of course were expecting like others some accelerating truck demand in the second half of the year. And right now the momentum you've seen the truck orders, you don't need me to tell you the momentum's been going in the wrong way. So we'll have to see. But overall, yes, it's a good start.

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO & VP at Cummins

There are a number of factors, some of which may continue, some of which may fade, volume is going to be the big question I think from here.

Jennifer Rumsey
Jennifer Rumsey
President & Chief Executive Officer at Cummins

And I just want to remind you, as you look at overall really strong performance in Q1 even with softening in North America truck, we remain focused on the key areas we've been talking to you about, including in our last Analyst Day, even as we manage through uncertainty and tariffs and work to mitigate tariffs. So improving gross margin in the business, we have growing aftermarket population that allows that aftermarket revenue to continue to grow over time. And we're still investing in critical areas. We continue to invest in capacity expansion in the Power Systems business in these next generation engine platforms, while also monitoring pace of decarbonization and regulation and pacing investment in other areas. And so we continue to be focused on that even as we navigate through this uncertain time.

Operator

Our next question comes from David Raso with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director & Partner at Evercore

Hi, thank you. The comment earlier about more worried about demand destruction, just curious, a very understandable view just from a broad macro view, I can appreciate that. But I'm just curious, are these comments based off of already communicating maybe what your cost increases would need to be and a pushback from your truck customers? Or is it even the end user of the truck saying, hey, at that price increase, we'll cancel backlog? I'm just curious how much is this a ready sort of floated price increase that will be needed to cover your cost that's getting that reaction?

David Raso
Senior Managing Director & Partner at Evercore

Or again, is it more just a broad and again understandable, just a broad macro view, of course, these tariffs can hurt the economy?

Jennifer Rumsey
Jennifer Rumsey
President & Chief Executive Officer at Cummins

Yes. David, what I'd say it's really uncertainty and a broader thing. I was at ACT Expo a week ago today, talked to many both OEM and fleet customers. They just don't know, right? They're just waiting because there's huge amount of uncertainty on what's going to happen both economically and with tariffs.

Jennifer Rumsey
Jennifer Rumsey
President & Chief Executive Officer at Cummins

And so that's really it, the wait and see.

David Raso
Senior Managing Director & Partner at Evercore

And that said, I know you don't want to go into a real exact quantification, but just to level set everybody, can you help us with your greatest exposures to cost, be it 6%, seven % of global COGS is Mexico and China, something like that so we can at least quantify? And then at the same time, hopefully, the tariffs come down, quantify in a positive way? And also what mitigating factors have already been put in place or at least are imminent based off the tariffs of today? Thank you.

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO & VP at Cummins

Yes. I'm just going to be honest and say I'm not going to answer all of those questions for some of the reasons I said earlier. What I can say is our U. S. On highway engine plants are MCA compliant, right.

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO & VP at Cummins

So in the terms of the operations that we do for our on highway markets, is the largest proportion of our business. We're in many markets, but that's the largest proportion. We are MCA compliant for all of those large engine plants. It's really what happens here from these tariffs. Yes, there's some exposure to China.

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO & VP at Cummins

Yes, there's some exposure to Mexico. Yes, there's some exposure to all some of the other countries as well. But we're going to quantify that on a quarter by quarter basis. We're working through all of that with suppliers, with customers and we'll provide an update as we go forward.

Operator

Our next question comes from Rob Wertheimer with Melius Research. Please proceed with your question.

Rob Wertheimer
Director of Research at Melius Research LLC

Hi, good morning. It was a remarkable quarter on margin on a lot of fronts, and I understand the comments within Power System on all the work you've done. Nonetheless, I do have a data center question. You mentioned China. I wonder if you'd be willing to sort of talk about, for one, I'm not 100% sure how you serve data centers there, whether it's direct or through JV.

Rob Wertheimer
Director of Research at Melius Research LLC

And two, I wonder if you could provide any context or color around size geographically in the data center market or momentum, etcetera. Is largely a U. S. Phenomenon? Or are there other areas that are importantly big?

Rob Wertheimer
Director of Research at Melius Research LLC

Thank you.

Jennifer Rumsey
Jennifer Rumsey
President & Chief Executive Officer at Cummins

Well, the trends that are driving data center growth are global trends, right, increasing use of AI, data storage going into cloud digitization. And so those underlying trends are global trends. Our market we have global markets, but in particular, S. And China have been areas where we've seen a lot of growth. And like we serve The U.

Jennifer Rumsey
Jennifer Rumsey
President & Chief Executive Officer at Cummins

S. Market through our U. S. Plants, we primarily serve the China market through plants in China, including joint venture plants that we have there.

Chris Clulow
Chris Clulow
Vice President-Investor Relations at Cummins

Yes. Just to add on that, Rob. The primary backup gensets in China are run with a 60 liter engines which are made in our common Changcheng engine plant there. So that's the primary source.

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO & VP at Cummins

Yes. And like other major markets we are one of the very leading players, right? It's a very select group of companies that are relied upon in this industry for backup power.

Operator

Our next question comes from Kyle Menges with Citigroup. Please proceed with your question.

Kyle Menges
Kyle Menges
Vice President - Equity Research Analyst at Citi

You. Jen, I wanted to touch on the comment you made just about the power gen business and you had just mentioned about cancellations and push outs and being able to reallocate those orders. Was that more of a hypothetical or is that something that you're seeing today?

Jennifer Rumsey
Jennifer Rumsey
President & Chief Executive Officer at Cummins

We're not seeing significant changes, but it's not atypical for some of that to happen, which we have seen. And as I said, we have when it happens and expect that we'd continue to be able to reallocate. We have a lot of customers that would like us to deliver some of these products sooner than is currently scheduled. And so I wouldn't describe it as a broad trend, but a limited one that we're seeing.

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO & VP at Cummins

To put it another way, it's the business with the least visibility to any changing economic sentiment overall so far.

Kyle Menges
Kyle Menges
Vice President - Equity Research Analyst at Citi

Right. Makes sense. And then could you guys just touch on a little bit any sort of tariff mitigation actions you've taken already? And then just any mitigation steps you're exploring? And can you remind us, is there any sort of tariff pass through baked into any of your contracts?

Kyle Menges
Kyle Menges
Vice President - Equity Research Analyst at Citi

That would also be helpful. Thank you.

Jennifer Rumsey
Jennifer Rumsey
President & Chief Executive Officer at Cummins

Yes. So of course, when there's a high degree of uncertainty is a little bit tricky because we're waiting to have a little bit more clarity on what tariffs will go over time. What I would say is we have done some mitigation through inventory strategies where we anticipated we would see higher tariffs and we have dual sourcing in some of our supply base. So that's there's some no regrets moves that we're taking now. And then as we continue to have more clarity on what tariffs will look like, we may make changes in the dual sourcing.

Jennifer Rumsey
Jennifer Rumsey
President & Chief Executive Officer at Cummins

There's places where there are other options, but it will take time to develop alternatives. So it's really a bit of a mix. But as you can imagine, we have an extensive strategy, and work underway looking at options and determining when we action those.

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO & VP at Cummins

And as we said, we're working through all of this, which I think if you're not in the business, it'd be hard to appreciate how much work it is for supply chain and other groups. We're working through all of that with suppliers and customers right now. So we're not going to comment anymore.

Operator

Our next question comes from Tamy Zakaria with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.

Tami Zakaria
Tami Zakaria
Analyst at JPMorgan Chase

Hey, good morning. Thank you so much. My first question is on price cost. Are you able to share what price cost was in the first quarter?

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO & VP at Cummins

Yes. So we had about 2% well, almost exactly 2% gross margin improvement year over year, which we had about 3% of price cost improvement and 1% of negative volume impacts. That price cost impact varies quite a lot between segment and you can figure that out from some of the improvements we've driven over time. And costs includes many things including the improved warranty cost over time, but that's the macro picture.

Tami Zakaria
Tami Zakaria
Analyst at JPMorgan Chase

Understood. That's very helpful. And then the second question is, I understand Cummins engines are primarily made in The U. S. For The U.

Tami Zakaria
Tami Zakaria
Analyst at JPMorgan Chase

S, which is great news long term given all that's going on. But for the Distribution and Components segments, are those primarily made in The U. S. As well? Or what's the mix of imports that serve The U.

Tami Zakaria
Tami Zakaria
Analyst at JPMorgan Chase

S. Market for those two segments?

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO & VP at Cummins

The distribution business is really just reselling parts from the rest of the company. So it depends on the different applications. Components, we've got manufacturing facilities and after treatment systems in Wisconsin, turbochargers that are made in Charleston, but it's the supply base and some of the suppliers that we use that bring more of that exposure if we want to use that word. So that's where the complexity comes in from the tariffs. It's not I mean, that's what I would say.

Operator

Our next question comes from Steven Fisher with UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Steven Fisher
Steven Fisher
Managing Director & Equity Research Analyst at UBS Group

Thanks. Good morning and impressive quarter. I think you said that you are on track with the timing of your product launches. Can you just clarify kind of some of the timing of those launches that you had in mind, particularly around the 2027 engine and then how the outcome of these NOx rules may impact the timing there?

Jennifer Rumsey
Jennifer Rumsey
President & Chief Executive Officer at Cummins

Yes. As I said, right now, we have not changed our launch plans on any of those products. We are planning to launch the new 10 liter and the B7.2 in 2027 as those regulations go in place. And we plan to launch the X15 diesel version in the 2026 timeframe. We'll have a kind of a split strategy across the year with the current X15 and the new one.

Jennifer Rumsey
Jennifer Rumsey
President & Chief Executive Officer at Cummins

Remember, we already have launched the natural gas variant of that new platform. And the diesel version is going to bring significant fuel efficiency improvement, so value to the customer that we believe is worth bringing into the market early. So that's our plan.

Steven Fisher
Steven Fisher
Managing Director & Equity Research Analyst at UBS Group

Terrific. And then just in terms of the guidance, curious kind of what you think you need to see in order to actually reinstate the guidance? Is it actual kind of signed trade agreements or what degree of certainty do you think you need to be able to bring that guidance back?

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO & VP at Cummins

What I would say is few more data points would be helpful, right. I mean the April truck orders I would describe as disappointing. So is that something that can move back to a normal trend level? What do we see? I mean this tariffs are designed to be disruptive to trade, right?

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO & VP at Cummins

I mean, that's what they're designed for. And we've seen that significant slowing certainly of freight activity into the West Coast that directly impacts ultimately road freight here in The U. S. And then what even as things let's hopefully stabilize improve, we've caused a slowing of the global supply chain. That's what happens.

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO & VP at Cummins

It's things are queuing up at ports and then it just takes a long time to write that momentum. And I think if you're not in the industry that may be underappreciated. And so the less time the uncertainties in place then more quickly I think we'll have greater clarity and confidence. And the longer it's in place then it'll just make it more difficult. Ultimately, we're not going to continue forever without guidance, but we'll get a sense of where purchases of capital goods, whether their confidence is shaken or whether it's a temporary pause and we get back on.

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO & VP at Cummins

And we actually start to see more positive economic activity. Right now there's not again we're not trying to comment on the whole of the global economy or even the whole of The U. S. Economy just commenting on the slices that we see and uncertainties gone up. So we want to see a few more data points on the broader economy specific certainly to on highway as a ranking that those would be helpful.

Operator

Our next question comes from Chad Dillard with Bernstein. Please proceed with your question.

Chad Dillard
Senior Analyst, US Machinery at Bernstein

Hey, good morning guys. So totally appreciate that it's difficult to quantify the impact of tariffs, but I was hoping you could lay out a timeline for that impact on the P and L. So how much component inventory did you pull forward? When does it run out? When will you need to raise price to offset the costs?

Chad Dillard
Senior Analyst, US Machinery at Bernstein

And then if you could share the percentage of U. S. COGS that are imports?

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO & VP at Cummins

Yes, way too many things to give because there's way too many variables. What I'll say is, no impact really in the first quarter given the pause in some of the tariffs and the escalation and some mitigation actions, we're going to start to see creeping and growing impact even yet as the second quarter unfolds here. There's inevitably going to be some lags between what we see, what we anticipate, what actually happens and then all the work that's going on with customers and suppliers. So that's the reason why. But we will when we get to the second quarter results and going forward to tell you what the impact is.

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO & VP at Cummins

And hopefully we've got more clarity then, but we'll certainly tell you what the impact was in the second quarter and what we think is going to happen to that run rate as we go through the rest of the year. I think what nobody has absolute certainty on the direct flow of every single widget right through the supply chain. So that's still evolving. We're not alone, right? We're not the only manufacturer of engines, powertrains and power systems in our markets.

Chad Dillard
Senior Analyst, US Machinery at Bernstein

Got it. Okay. So just one more. So just on Section two thirty two, assuming that does eventually get applied, How does that impact your relative positioning? And from your perspective, like would you consider it good, bad or neutral versus the status quo of what we are right now?

Jennifer Rumsey
Jennifer Rumsey
President & Chief Executive Officer at Cummins

So for those that maybe haven't been paying attention, maybe you've all been paying attention, February, the U. S. Commerce Department launched its February investigation two weeks ago on foreign production of medium and heavy duty trucks and parts. And so that has the potential to result in additional tariffs on trucks and parts that come from outside The U. S.

Jennifer Rumsey
Jennifer Rumsey
President & Chief Executive Officer at Cummins

Of course, we've seen the announcement of we're in the middle of the public comment period and we'll be providing comments, of course, as a part of that and just emphasizing U. S. Manufacturing that we make and advocating for exemptions on imports to U. S. Manufacturing through a robust exemption process and ensuring that we reflect the impact that any tariffs could have on the underlying U.

Jennifer Rumsey
Jennifer Rumsey
President & Chief Executive Officer at Cummins

S. Economy. So stay tuned there, but that's the potential with two thirty two investigation.

Operator

Our next question is from Jeff Kaufman with Vertical Research Partners. Please proceed with your question.

Jeffrey Kauffman
Partner & Transportation and Logistics Equity Research at Vertical Research Partners

Thank you. And thank you for sliding me in here. And Chris, it's been great working with you. Nick, look forward to getting to know you. Mark, thank you for all the detail, that you were able to give.

Jeffrey Kauffman
Partner & Transportation and Logistics Equity Research at Vertical Research Partners

I have one on currency. Given that so much of your business occurs outside The U. S, was currency translation a good guy, a bad guy? Can you give us an idea of magnitude? And then you explained the price increase on the light duty engines well with the new product at Stellantis.

Jeffrey Kauffman
Partner & Transportation and Logistics Equity Research at Vertical Research Partners

Can we talk a little bit more about the ASP increase on the power system side? Was that also new products, product mix, larger products? You did mention aftermarket. Just kind of understand what's driving that increase as well.

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO & VP at Cummins

Sorry, you caught my attention with the pricing. Repeat the first part. Currency. Yes. So the answer is, generally, if we could choose and we didn't deploy hedging techniques than a weaker dollar except against the pound would be our perfect choice of combinations.

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO & VP at Cummins

But we do deploy we have natural hedges from the way we're globally organized and then we do use some very simple vanilla derivatives. So the net impact is no. If you ask any individual business leader, distribution in particular are more exposed to a strengthening dollar. But the net result is very, very modest to the P and L like less than $10,000,000 when you look at all the impacts that are the hedges. And that's generally been the case for a long time.

Mark Smith
Mark Smith
CFO & VP at Cummins

Sharp shifts, where we get caught is when there's like capital constraints and currency revaluations like Nigeria, Argentina is a common topic of conversation about what to do there. But net net, Jeff for the company, we're fortunate that we're close to neutral.

Chris Clulow
Chris Clulow
Vice President-Investor Relations at Cummins

And on your second question, Jeff, on the ASP for on the power systems, power generation product, that's it's a tough one to gauge. That's really kind of a bit of a red herring because the size is so different across that portfolio. You could we have lower demand in the small stuffs, think RVs or power or backup gensets at home versus strong growth in data center. So that can flex quite a bit and it's usually not a really great indicator. But we continue to see strength, I guess, through the first quarter in that big stuff and that drives a higher ASP.

Operator

We have reached the end of the question and answer session. I'd now like to turn the call back over to Chris Clulow for closing comments.

Chris Clulow
Chris Clulow
Vice President-Investor Relations at Cummins

Great. Thank you everybody for joining and thanks. It's been a pleasure working with you all over the last couple of years. That concludes our teleconference for the day. We will be available as an Investor Relations team for the remainder of the day should you have any follow ups.

Chris Clulow
Chris Clulow
Vice President-Investor Relations at Cummins

Thank you.

Operator

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time and we thank you for your participation.

Executives
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Key Takeaways

  • Q1 revenues were $8.2 billion (-3% YoY) with adjusted EBITDA of $1.5 billion (17.9% margin versus 15.5% a year ago), led by record performance in the Power Systems segment driven by pricing, operational efficiency and strong aftermarket volumes.
  • Evolving trade tariffs have introduced significant uncertainty, prompting the withdrawal of full-year guidance; tariff costs are expected to build through Q2 and be partially passed on to customers amid ongoing supply-chain mitigation efforts.
  • Cummins advanced its Destination Zero strategy by unveiling the X10 and B7.2 engine platforms for 2027, acquiring First Mode’s retrofit hybrid assets and securing a 100 MW PEM electrolyzer supply deal for BP’s green hydrogen project.
  • Regional end-market trends were mixed: North American heavy- and medium-duty truck production fell 18% and 21% respectively while power generation grew 12% on data center demand; China revenues rose 9% and India declined 14%.
  • With over $1 billion in planned U.S. investments and a solid balance sheet, Cummins is focused on pricing for value, managing costs and optimizing working capital to navigate the current environment until outlook clarity returns.
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Earnings Conference Call
Cummins Q1 2025
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