Suncor Energy Q1 2025 Earnings Report

Suncor Energy EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $0.91
• Consensus EPS: $0.86
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$0.05
• One Year Ago EPS: $1.41

Suncor Energy Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $9.10 billion
• Expected Revenue: $13.39 billion
• Beat/Miss: Missed by -$4.29 billion
• YoY Revenue Growth: N/A

Suncor Energy Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q1 2025
• Date: 5/6/2025
• Time: After Market Closes
• Conference Call Date: Wednesday, May 7, 2025
• Conference Call Time: 9:30AM ET

Suncor Energy (NYSE:SU) Inc. operates as an integrated energy company in Canada, the United States, and internationally. It operates through Oil Sands; Exploration and Production; and Refining and Marketing segments. The Oil Sands segment explores, develops, and produces bitumen, synthetic crude oil, and related products. This segment also engages in oil sands mining. The Exploration and Production segment is involved in offshore operations in the East Coast of Canada; and marketing and risk management of crude oil and natural gas. The Refining and Marketing segment engages in the refining of crude oil products; and distribution, marketing, transportation, and risk management of refined and petrochemical products, and other purchased products through the retail and wholesale networks. This segment is also involved in the trading of crude oil, refined products, natural gas, and power. The company was formerly known as Suncor Inc. and changed its name to Suncor Energy Inc. in April 1997. Suncor Energy Inc. was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada. Suncor Energy Inc.

Suncor Energy Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Record operational performance: Upstream production hit a Q1 high of 853 kbbl/d, upgrader utilization reached 102%, and refining throughput and product sales set all-time first-quarter records.
• Total costs fell 4.2% YoY to C$3.3 billion despite 3–4% higher volumes, demonstrating operating leverage and cost discipline across the business.
• Financial strength: generated C$3 billion of adjusted funds from operations and C$1.6 billion of operating earnings, held AFFO per share flat YoY, and returned C$1.5 billion to shareholders in dividends and buybacks.
• Strategic targets accelerated: after year 1 of the 2024–26 plan, Suncor achieved 75% of its production growth goal, 70% of breakeven reduction and free cash flow targets, and hit its net debt objective two years early.
• Major Q2 turnarounds are underway at Sarnia and Edmonton refineries plus a 91-day Upgrader 1 coke-drum replacement, introducing execution and downtime risks to Q2 volumes and costs.

Presentation

[Operator]

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Suncor Energy First Quarter twenty twenty five Financial Results Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question and answer session. Be a Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

[Operator]

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker, Suncor Energy's Senior Vice President of External Affairs, Mr. Troy Little.

[Troy Little, SVP - External Affairs at Suncor Energy]

Thank you, operator, and good morning. Welcome to Suncor Energy's first quarter earnings call. Please note that today's comments contain forward looking information. Actual results may differ materially from the expected results because of various risk factors and assumptions that are described in our first quarter earnings release as well as in our annual information form, both of which are available on SEDAR, EDGAR and our website, suncor.com. Certain financial measures referred to in these comments are not prescribed by Canadian Generally Accepted Accounting Principles.

[Troy Little, SVP - External Affairs at Suncor Energy]

For a description of these financial measures, please see our first quarter earnings release. We will start with comments from Rich Krueger, President and Chief Executive Officer followed by Chris Smith, Suncor's Chief Financial Officer. Also on the call are Peter Zebedee, Executive Vice President, Oil Sands Dave Oldreave, Executive Vice President, Downstream and Shelly Powell, Senior Vice President, Operational Improvement and Support Services. Following the formal remarks, we'll open the call up to questions. Now I'll hand it over to Rich to share his comments.

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

Good morning. Suncor's first quarter was about maintaining momentum and starting 2025 strong. I believe we successfully accomplished both objectives. I'll comment on some operational highlights and Chris will further focus on financial performance. I'll start with personnel safety.

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

Previously shared that twenty twenty four's performance was as good or better than twenty twenty three's best ever, with recordable and lost time events down significantly. I'm pleased to report the positive performance has continued year to date 2025. Special call out to Dean Wilcox's base plant team, winners of the John T. Ryan twenty twenty four National Safety Award for Outstanding Safety Performance in Major Projects and Civil Work. This is awarded annually by the Canadian Institute of Mining, and it's the Holy Grail in Mine Safety.

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

Process safety. Previously shared that twenty twenty four's performance was best ever first quartile in North America, while the first quarter of twenty twenty five's performance demonstrated continued improvement, significantly better than 2024s. Personal belief, you can't be a well run company without being a safe company. Upstream production, 853,000 barrels a day, our highest first quarter ever and our second highest quarter ever, 18,000 barrels a day higher than our previous best first quarter, which was achieved last year. Upgrader utilization, a very strong 102%.

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

It's the fourth quarter out of the last five where we've been at 99% or higher. Continued high performance from our profitability Pacesetter Firebag at 248,000 barrels a day, results particularly good considering harsh weather for much of February in Alberta. Refining throughput, 483,000 barrels a day, far and away the highest first quarter in our history, 28,000 barrels a day higher than our previous first quarter, again set last year. Refining utilization, exceptional at 104%, the third consecutive quarter above 100%. In fact, every refinery achieves higher throughput and higher utilization year on year, and our overall bottom line is within 5,000 barrels a day of our best ever quarter of any quarter.

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

Refined product sales, 605,000 barrels a day, here again, far and away the highest first quarter in company history, 24,000 barrels a day higher than the previous best first quarter, again set last year. The third highest quarter ever with the top two quarters being the last two. In fact, the past five quarters have been our highest in company history. In 1954, a gentleman named Roger Bannister, the world's first four minute miler said records are meant to be broken, and that is exactly what Suncor teams continue to do, break records. Total costs, OS and G, dollars 3,300,000,000.0, down $143,000,000 or 4.2% in absolute dollars versus the first quarter of last year despite higher production and throughput across the board.

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

3% to 4% higher absolute volumes, 4% lower absolute costs, operating leverage achieved with a culture and a mindset that every barrel and every dollar matter. I want to take you back twelve months ago, Investor Day, May twenty twenty four. We established several objectives for the three years twenty twenty four through 2026 to improve performance, create shareholder value. They were tied to production growth, cost reduction, free funds flow growth and net debt. At the end of last year, end of twenty twenty four, we reported on the first year progress, Production growth, we have achieved 75% of our three year target.

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

Breakeven reduction, 70% or $7 a barrel U. S. Of the three year target. Free funds flow, 2,300,000,000.0 or 70% of the three year target. And then of course, net debt achieved our $8,000,000,000 target in the third quarter of last year.

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

The bottom line, one year into our three year plan, we've exceeded every single target, essentially achieved two years of our planned improvements in the first year. But the best and most important part, we aren't done yet. What gives me this confidence? In the first four months of the year, I've spent a lot of time in the field, at our plant sites, in our mines, meeting with and talking to hardworking, card carrying, operational and technical experts. I spent time at the base plant looking at our U1 coke drum replacement project and reviewing autonomous haul truck operations.

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

Time at Syncrude's Mildred Lake and Aurora mines observing best in class truck and shovel operations, touring Syncrude's heavy equipment maintenance shops at Fort Hills inspecting the major new state of the art heavy equipment arrivals. I've been at our Montreal and Sarnia refineries with teams driving industry leading utilization, touring our retail site network, meeting Petro Canada associates across the country. Why do I and my colleagues spend all this time in the field? Because Suncor's leadership team knows the game is won on the field with the players, and on the field is where you'll find us. So what did I see that reinforces we're not done yet?

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

Base plant autonomous haul truck operations, Mike Gartenberg's team. At year end 2024, we achieved our objective of 91 autonomous haul trucks moving all productive ore. Since then, we've increased our fleet to more than 100 trucks on the way to 140. In nine months, we've achieved performance equal to staffed operations versus a typical industry benchmark of two years. We're leveraging data analytics, creating a new world class AHS command center.

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

We're collaborating with our partners Komatsu and SMS to upgrade AHS software to improve all weather or what we call mud mode operating performance. The productivity expectations we have in AHS at the base plant is expected to yield the equivalent of 10 free 400 ton haul trucks by 2026. Coke drum Coke boiler replacement and cogeneration project, Mike Hague's team, where we replaced three old coke drum coke fired boilers with two new 400 megawatt gas fired generators, added new high efficiency heat recovery steam generators. We completed the project and achieved startup in the fourth quarter of last year. We've now tested each unit at over 400 megawatts.

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

The project will meet steam needs for the base plant with surplus power exported to the Alberta grid, improves reliability, lowers cost, generates power revenue and lowers emission. Syncrude, Aurora mine truck loading operation, Alex Stark's team. Aurora supplies two thirds of Syncrude's mined bitumen. The mine is supported by a fleet of 70 to 75 Caterpillar seven 90 seven four hundred ton haul trucks. Historically, we've loaded each truck to 93% of capacity or three seventy tons per truck.

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

Alex's team has increased its load factor to over 100% now, a full 10% increase, 30 to 40 more tons of productive ore on each and every truck achieved through shovel operator best practices and load sensing technology. The impact, lower unit costs, higher productivity equal to seven free 400 ton trucks. Fort Hills new hydraulic shovel, Alistair Gibbons team, last Thursday, I attended a ceremony commissioning the world's largest hydraulic shovel, the PC9000, first of its kind, serial number one, designed in partnership with Komatsu and SMS, purpose built for Suncor to be perfectly paired with our Komatsu four hundred ton truck fleet, larger bucket, longer reach, greater digging force, swivel capacity for dual side loading. The results, faster loading, less repositioning, less spillage. Having seen it and walked on it personally, the PC 9,000 is a beast.

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

Personally taught, I personally pulled out by a stopwatch on my phone and timed loading operations, four scoops, four zero four tons in one point five minutes. Folks, that's fast. Deployed in Fort Hills Center pit, we've got a second shovel scheduled for delivery in July and two more next year. This is an example of vision, partnership, technology and scale driving productivity and lowering costs. Refining operations, I spent time with Conor Putney's Sarnia team and Isabelle Arbour's Montreal team, seeing how maintenance and reliability best practices are driving higher utilization, how turnaround benchmarking and risk based work selection are reducing capital and operating costs, how low cost debottlenecking is achieving record setting refining throughput.

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

Two examples I want to share with you of grassroots focus on driving performance and adding value. Brad Jones, process operator, Sarnia Refinery. Brad had the idea to spend $200,000 for tie ins to maintain flow flexibility during our recent April turnaround. Dollars 200,000 added 4,000,000 in jet fuel margin, a twenty:one payout in one month. Well done, Brad.

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

Remy Laverge, crude unit operator, Montreal refinery, whose idea for minor pumping or piping modifications at a one time cost of $300,000 to increase refining capacity by 500 barrels a day is adding more than $1,000,000 in margin every year. 2025 will be the first full year. These examples illustrate the power of clear, simple priorities, focusing on the fundamentals, understood and embraced top to bottom, delivering results. Supply, trading and marketing. In the first quarter, I witnessed Paula O'Shaughnessy's, Paula Demas and Derek Davies' teams supplying and trading in volatile East West crude and refined product markets to capture premium margins at lower cost.

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

And lastly, I spent time with Pat Riches, Petro Canada Retail and Wholesale Associates working in partnership to increase market share and site margins nationwide. I'll stop there, but here again, these are only a few examples I could share of Suncor teams, technical, operational and commercial, working together to deliver industry leading results, teams with the drive of fierce competitors and the determination of champions, teams unstoppable in their commitment to be the best of the best. With that, I'll turn it over to Chris.

[Kris Smith, Chief Financial Officer at Suncor Energy]

All right. Thanks, Rich, and good morning, everyone. Building on Rich's comments, it was yet another strong operational and financial quarter as we continue the positive momentum we built in 2024. But first, with respect to the business environment in the quarter, there was obviously a lot of uncertainty around the impact of U. S.

[Kris Smith, Chief Financial Officer at Suncor Energy]

Tariffs, but in the end, the commodity prices across the quarter remained constructive. In the quarter, WTI and the light heavy differential remained relatively flat versus Q4 at US71.40 a barrel and US12.65 dollars a barrel, respectively, while synthetic crude decreased about US3 dollars a barrel, averaging a discount of US2.35 dollars a barrel to TI. On the refining side, New York Harbor two-one-one cracking margins improved versus Q4 by $2.25 a barrel, driven largely by improving distillate cracks. And our five-two-two-one refining index remains strong at US26.80 dollars a barrel. Finally, natural gas prices increased by CAD0.60 a GJ versus Q4, averaging about CAD2 a GJ in the quarter, but obviously remain attractively priced for natural gas consumers like our business.

[Kris Smith, Chief Financial Officer at Suncor Energy]

Rich has already detailed our Q1 operational performance in his remarks, so I won't repeat them here other than a few points. Oil sands production in the quarter was 791,000 barrels per day with in situ averaging 283,000 barrels per day in the quarter. Fort Hills continuing to deliver solid operations with 176,000 barrels per day in the quarter, while upgrading was strong at both Base plant and Syncrude at 103100% utilization, respectively. E and P averaged 62,000 barrels a day in the quarter, which is up 5,000 barrels per day from Q4 despite some temporary logistics challenges at Newfoundland Loading Terminal in the quarter, which have since been resolved. In addition to very strong refining throughput and refined product sales in the quarter, our refining business also posted a very strong margin capture, averaging 99% on a LIFO basis when compared to our 5.221 Index.

[Kris Smith, Chief Financial Officer at Suncor Energy]

This high asset utilization and margin capture is a reflection of the powerful combination of strong asset reliability and our best in class supply and marketing business, which maximizes value across our various trade channels. We also continue to demonstrate operating leverage with total OS and G expense of $3,300,000,000 which is down quarter over quarter, while production and sales were up in both the upstream and the downstream. While capital expenditures totaled $1,100,000,000 in the quarter, including $600,000,000 of economic investments and $500,000,000 of sustaining and maintenance capital. This strong operational performance and cost management led to very positive financial results in the quarter. We generated $3,000,000,000 of adjusted funds from operations or $2.46 per share in the quarter and adjusted operating earnings of $1,600,000,000 or $1.31 per share.

[Kris Smith, Chief Financial Officer at Suncor Energy]

I think it's worth noting that when comparing quarter over quarter, Q1 twenty twenty five to Q1 twenty twenty four, despite a 7% decline in WTI and average 24% decline in New York Harbor and Chicago two-one-one cracks, cracks. You see that our AFFO per share is the same and our free funds flow per share is actually 6% higher. This is a clear demonstration of the impact of our improving performance. As Rich just said, at Suncor, every barrel and every dollar matters, and this is proof of that. In the quarter, we also returned nearly 1,500,000,000 to shareholders, including $7.00 $5,000,000 in dividends and $750,000,000 in share buybacks, which was 1.1% of our float.

[Kris Smith, Chief Financial Officer at Suncor Energy]

We continue to focus on returning 100% of excess funds to shareholders, while prudently investing in the business to grow returns to our shareholders. As expected, we saw working capital increase during the quarter of about $1,000,000,000 contributing to net debt at quarter end being $7,600,000,000 which is aligned with our debt management and capital allocation strategy. Overall, first quarter operational and financial performance demonstrated a continued relentless focus on executing the fundamentals of our business and generating value for our shareholders. Now before handing it back to Rich, I just want to make a few comments on the second quarter. We're into our second quarter turnaround program and it is on plan for our 2025 guidance.

[Kris Smith, Chief Financial Officer at Suncor Energy]

The Sarnia refinery started its crude unit one turnaround on March 29, which includes planned maintenance work on the cat cracker and alkylation units, and I'm pleased to say the team has made great progress on the event against the plan. As well, the Edmonton refinery spring turnaround, which includes the sour crude unit, hydrotreaters, sulfur train and delayed coker unit started on April 15 and is also proceeding very well and on plan. And lastly, the base plant Upgrader one turnaround, which includes the coke drum replacement project is also underway. The event started on May 1 and is a planned ninety one day outage. We are extremely pleased with the planning and preparation the team has done going into this event, and we're very well positioned for the execution of both the turnaround and this important project.

[Kris Smith, Chief Financial Officer at Suncor Energy]

And we look forward to completing all these events and reporting on them at the end of our second quarter. Finally, I want to take a moment to acknowledge the market conditions we're currently facing. With WTI prices currently bouncing around $60 a barrel amid the market uncertainty we've seen over the last few months. I'm very pleased that the significant strides we've made over the last two years to improve our operational and financial performance, significantly reduce our WTI breakeven and strengthen our balance sheet has significantly improved our company's resiliency and position Suncor to weather these uncertain times and continue to generate solid free cash flow for our shareholders. Suncor is a resilient company with a best in class integrated business model and a highly focused and capable team.

[Kris Smith, Chief Financial Officer at Suncor Energy]

You heard many examples from Rich, both of which will prove to be a significant advantage during these times like these and position us extremely well into the future. And with that, Rich, I'll turn it back to you.

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

Thanks, Chris. A couple of comments before we just dive into the Q and A. Our objective today is Suncor high performance sustained excellence. '24 was a good year, '25 is off to a good start. Chris talked about our strength and resiliency.

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

I'll end with a quote from the late Academy Award winning actor, Gene Hackman. In the 2,000 film The Replacements, Hackman starred with Keanu Reeves, the quote, Winners always want the ball when the game is on the line. Folks, I am seeing Suncor teams company wide continue to show me they want the ball. With that, I'll turn it back to Troy.

[Troy Little, SVP - External Affairs at Suncor Energy]

Thank you, Rich. I'll turn the call back to the operator to take some questions.

[Operator]

Thank And our first question will come from the line of Dennis Fong with CIBC. Your line is open.

[Dennis Fong, Equity Research Analyst at CIBC Capital Markets]

Hi, good morning, and thanks for taking my questions as well as congratulations for a very strong first quarter. My first question here, just you had to contend with the impacts of colder weather in January and February. Can you talk towards your strategy around managing the various oil sands assets and operations that you have through kind of those challenging conditions?

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

Yes. I'll take it. Thanks, Dennis. I don't mean to be flippant here, but the last time I checked, it's always cold in Canada in the first quarter. So we have taken a strategy of philosophy, we're not going to be a weather taker, we're going to be a weather maker.

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

And so what Peter and Dave have done is they focused, they designed into our operation the resiliency for extremely cold weather conditions, whether that's the fuel in our haul trucks, whether that's supplemental winterization at our refineries. We face this uncertainty, this variability every year. And for the last two years, we have been very focused on how do we engineer or design out that risk of that variability. So if you want any further examples, can ask Peter and Dave to comment. But we like so many other things in our company, we've looked at it and just not accepted the outcome, but saying, what can we do that can change or improve our performance independent of what the circumstances would be. And I think our winterization program is a you didn't read about winterization in our press release because we've engineered to accommodate and deal with it.

[Dennis Fong, Equity Research Analyst at CIBC Capital Markets]

Appreciate that color. I'm not sure if Peter was going to step in there.

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

Don't know that Peter, do have anything to add anything particular to add?

[Peter Zebedee, Executive Vice President of Oil Sands at Suncor Energy]

Maybe I just add a couple of things, Dennis.

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

I didn't leave you much, Dennis.

[Peter Zebedee, Executive Vice President of Oil Sands at Suncor Energy]

But I also you really start to see the strength of our integration across oil sands come out here. So where if an issue crops up in a single asset, we can really lessen or buffer out that impact by moving barrels across our integrated production ecosystem. And you saw that in the high asset transfers that we reported on this quarter. That's really the strength of Suncor and the strength of Suncor integration coming through.

[Dave Oldreive, Executive Vice President of Downstream at Suncor Energy]

I can add a little bit for refinery perspective as well. It's Dave here. If there's thousands and thousands of things you have to get right for winterization to work at complicated refinery, and I've seen these things all over the world. The key really is to learn from past winters and make sure you capture the learnings of the instruments and the various things that freeze up and make sure you have a disciplined approach to ensure that they're in good shape for the following winter. And the other thing that is probably interesting and people may not appreciate is we start our winterization program sometime around July, right?

[Dave Oldreive, Executive Vice President of Downstream at Suncor Energy]

It's the middle of summer and that's when we're starting to focus on it because we know winter comes every year.

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

Thanks, guys.

[Dennis Fong, Equity Research Analyst at CIBC Capital Markets]

Thanks. Really appreciate that underlying context. My second question shifts a little bit towards technology and in aggregate improving operations. I know back with the May update, you guys talked a little bit around the MIND Connect tool, which really kind of helps optimize the MIND fleet in aggregate. But I think the other thing that you you've mentioned at least a few times in conference calls is that while you present some of the really interesting opportunities, a lot of those kind of new ideas come from, we'll call it, within the organization.

[Dennis Fong, Equity Research Analyst at CIBC Capital Markets]

So I wanted to kinda, like, address, like, how is the MineConnect tool connected tool doing in terms of optimizing operations? And secondarily, what is that maybe spun out in terms of incremental benefits that you maybe didn't realize right when, you kind of implemented the tool to begin with?

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

Peter and I got we were up at Fort Hills last Thursday, and we went folks took us through and they were giving us their dashboards and their screen. Peter, you want to comment on some of the things we were focused on?

[Peter Zebedee, Executive Vice President of Oil Sands at Suncor Energy]

Yes. And Dennis, the MyConnect tool is only that. It really is a tool, but it provides insights to the operations team so that they can take action, and that's obviously where the value is generated. When Rich and I were up at Fort Hills last week, we talked with the Fort Hills team about their short airboat control and the use of some MineConnect data and how that comes into our operating cadence and our operating performance through our operational excellence management system. So it's really about identifying an outlier, is delivered by the MineConnect tool, taking immediate action and then generating the value in the field.

[Peter Zebedee, Executive Vice President of Oil Sands at Suncor Energy]

And that's really kind of where the power comes in from data and insights and technology to quick action by the leadership team.

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

Peter, one of the things that really struck me as we sat there is the real time nature of the team leads. The gentleman in the room with us, he talked about how they meet periodically, multiple times a day, every few hours as the opportunity is migrating from whether it's a shovel operation or a truck efficiency. And so we lose a moment in the ability to optimize or improve overall performance. To me, that was really a powerful discussion that we had.

[Peter Zebedee, Executive Vice President of Oil Sands at Suncor Energy]

Yes, it really is a bit a timely response to a variant condition.

[Dennis Fong, Equity Research Analyst at CIBC Capital Markets]

Great. Thanks for that color. I'll turn it back.

[Operator]

Thank you. One moment for our next question. And that will come from the line of Greg Pardy with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

[Greg Pardy, MD & Head of Global Energy Research at RBC Capital Markets]

Yes, thanks. Good morning. I wondered if we can maybe just pivot to the downstream and then specifically progress made on retail EBITDA growth. Like as I ride my bike around Toronto, what I see are you're closing some stations. I know there's enhancements going on elsewhere.

[Greg Pardy, MD & Head of Global Energy Research at RBC Capital Markets]

Just curious how the strategy is unfolding and whether the retail kind of in the same question, but whether the retail is ultimately core to your business longer term?

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

Thanks, Greg. I'll ask Dave to comment in a second, but you're exactly right. If you go back to either our retail review or our Investor Day, we talked about how that we're looking at that portfolio of some 1,600 plus sites nationwide and we're high grading and upgrading major markets, the highest volume, highest margin sites. We're growing those and then we're rationalizing on the other end of that. Dave, you want to comment on how we're doing?

[Dave Oldreive, Executive Vice President of Downstream at Suncor Energy]

Yes, for sure.

[Dave Oldreive, Executive Vice President of Downstream at Suncor Energy]

And Greg, riding your bike around is not helping our retail business. We'll have to get you to shopping for a burger at an A and W.

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

We've got to sign with a loyalty program.

[Dave Oldreive, Executive Vice President of Downstream at Suncor Energy]

We do have other options, though, for you, Greg, in our convenience stores and our quick serve restaurants. But we are executing plans to grow our domestic retail business. I'd say actually retail and wholesale. And we've mentioned back in May that we're committing to grow EBITDA by $200,000,000 by the end of twenty twenty six. And in fact, we have plans that go beyond 2026 as well.

[Dave Oldreive, Executive Vice President of Downstream at Suncor Energy]

And that serves us well in terms of finding good domestic outlets for our products. And that plan involves high grading or transforming 20% of our network between twenty four percent and twenty six and I would say it is well on track. As Rich mentioned, he likes to say, we're building sites that you can take the family to for the day and enjoy hours of fun at our retail sites. They're larger sites with larger C stores, quick serve restaurants, car washes and all really designed to achieve top returns. In the first quarter, we actually completed eight site enhancements and one new build.

[Dave Oldreive, Executive Vice President of Downstream at Suncor Energy]

We also rebranded seven competitor sites, Metro Canada brand and that's part of a program of 20 sites, which are actually we completed 18 up until today. So seven in the first quarter, '17 today and the final three are actually opening today. So there'll be 20 new rebrands there. And we're enhancing our sites to drive increased fuel sales and reduce our overall pumping costs and have resilient sites We also mentioned previously our Canadian Tire relationship that continues to go strong.

[Dave Oldreive, Executive Vice President of Downstream at Suncor Energy]

And that's helped us over the past year increase our PetraPoints membership by over 30%. So that really material increases. We're starting to see that now in the volumes and play into the strong Canadian brand that we have that's been really helpful through the first quarter. We saw a 6% year on year increase in retail, 9% year on year increase in our Petra Pass truck stop business. So we continue to grow on that business and it's delivering.

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

And David, I can just build off of that one. I think it's important, Greg, to recognize all barrels aren't created equal. There is a clear Pareto charter priority of the highest value barrels, the branded company owned retail in major markets, top of the food chain and so on. And what I like in Dave and Pat Richey's teams understanding that it's not about volumes, it's about value. But when you can couple volume with value, that's when you get the exponential effect. That's what I see this team doing.

[Greg Pardy, MD & Head of Global Energy Research at RBC Capital Markets]

Okay. Rich, kind of a part of the same question. I mean back in Imperial, you did that big transaction where you, you know, you guys sold off the retail for a huge price at the time. Not to put words in your mouth, but are you, you know, is this an asset that you're absolutely wed to or is it, you know, how do you think about the retail ultimately as a core part or not a core part of the business?

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

The only thing I unconditionally love are my kids and my grandkids. Everybody else has to earn their seat at the table. And I'm not making a statement about retail at all, but we look at all of our assets for their ongoing contribution and their value to us. And with right now, with the value that's being created here, this is a very, very valuable part of our portfolio where we think there is continued growth in an uncertain world like we're in today, that full integration all the way through the value chain is another set of value opportunities for us. So I never say never, but right now that is a very, very valuable part of the company's operations.

[Greg Pardy, MD & Head of Global Energy Research at RBC Capital Markets]

Okay. Thanks for that. And if you'll oblige me maybe just on a second one. So if I roll back the clock, this time last year, talked about $3,300,000,000 of incremental free funds flow. You've accelerated it in terms of what you've been able to achieve.

[Greg Pardy, MD & Head of Global Energy Research at RBC Capital Markets]

But I'm just curious, what I understand, that number was actually bigger that there were headwinds that you kind of factored into the estimation of that number. And I'm just curious, what are you seeing in terms of are the headwinds as acute as you expected or what have

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

I think we're seeing examples where if you talk about inflation or things like this, that's part of it. But I also like the proactive things both Dave and Peter are doing that also affect those headwinds. As we, for example, and I'll use a simple example, as we deliver and take ownership of bigger haul trucks, we send home rental trucks that are smaller. Well, that also influences the market. And so I would say the headwinds we're facing, and gentlemen, don't let me put words in your mouth, are we're probably counteracting more of those headwinds than we would have anticipated a year ago. Fair?

[Peter Zebedee, Executive Vice President of Oil Sands at Suncor Energy]

Yes.

[Peter Zebedee, Executive Vice President of Oil Sands at Suncor Energy]

I'd agree with that. It is all about driving efficiency and productivity and getting more out of the assets that we have than what has been historically generated. So that is something that is at the forefront of our minds and our daily drive each and every day.

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

I'll come back to a point I made just a few minutes ago, Greg, though. We're approaching everything is we don't want to be a market taker, but a market maker. And so whether that's for goods and services, whether that's how we participate in the refined product sales is historically, you could look at things and well, this is up, this is down. What can we do to alter that for a better outcome for Suncor? It's a mindset.

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

It's a culture. It's just a it's a passion for making things the absolute best they can be. And I think this area of the headwinds is the same thing. We didn't if there's a whatever that number was in our Investor Day, it was an offset. And we're saying, okay, well, that's just like everything else.

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

What can we do to reduce that impact and create more value?

[Greg Pardy, MD & Head of Global Energy Research at RBC Capital Markets]

Got it. Thanks very much.

[Operator]

Thank you. One moment for our next question. And that will come from the line of Manav Gupta with UBS. Your line is open.

[Manav Gupta, Executive Director at UBS Group]

Good morning. I wanted to first focus on the refining side, 99% capture, one of the highest we have seen in North America. Help us understand a little more what's driving this high amount of capture versus relative to your peers and how you continuously on a per barrel basis remain one of the most profitable North American refiners?

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

Dave, how are we doing?

[Dave Oldreive, Executive Vice President of Downstream at Suncor Energy]

Sure.

[Dave Oldreive, Executive Vice President of Downstream at Suncor Energy]

How are doing it? It really comes down to our integration and capturing value all the way through the value chain. Our Suncor integration helps us by we grow our branded channels. We're leveraging our trading capacity. We're optimizing our production in upstream and downstream assets.

[Dave Oldreive, Executive Vice President of Downstream at Suncor Energy]

And as I mentioned in response to Greg's question, one of the big things that drove margin capture is improving our channel mix. And we saw that specifically in the first quarter. We saw retail volumes up six percent. We saw our truck stop business up 9%. And more importantly, even with increased throughput, record throughput at the refineries, we saw our exports down 25% in the quarter.

[Dave Oldreive, Executive Vice President of Downstream at Suncor Energy]

And that's really what helped drive that's a big factor in driving the margin improvement. So we're capturing or the yes, the margin capture and the improvement of that margin capture. So we're capturing the full value and we're trying to keep more and more of that domestically.

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

And I'd say the other thing I'd add to it, David, I think that kind of the philosophy that over the last couple of years is our we have said to our refining teams, run your facilities to the full extent of their capacity. That drives down unit cost. It increases the throughput. And then the opportunity for your marketing teams is go out there and capture that improved volume mix. So as opposed to in the past, at times we've said, okay, well, here's what the demand is.

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

So we might have and we have actually adjusted refining throughput to meet an anticipated demand or our expectation of the markets. Last time I checked, I can never sell a barrel I don't produce or refine. So we've turned that around and said, get after it, and we'll find valuable homes. And I think our teams have risen to that opportunity.

[Dave Oldreive, Executive Vice President of Downstream at Suncor Energy]

100%.

[Manav Gupta, Executive Director at UBS Group]

Thank you. My second question is, you do have a big turnaround on upstream coming up. Help us understand the risk planning around it and how you will make sure that this turnaround completes on time and on budget? Thank you.

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

It's a combination of a turnaround and then a project on a coke drum replacement. So Shelly, let me ask you to comment on that because the real determinant of the success of this is the ninety one day coke drum replacement project. Talk about the preparation your teams and the risk management your teams have undertaken on that.

[Shelley Powell, Senior VP of Operational Improvement & Support Services at Suncor Energy]

Yes, for sure. So we're in a very good spot with this project. The team is in place. And as you said, we are well into the start of execution with that turnaround now underway. And in fact, this weekend, we just completed one of our first important lifts.

[Shelley Powell, Senior VP of Operational Improvement & Support Services at Suncor Energy]

So it's been very good to get that behind us. It sets the team up well for the remaining lift activities. And as you said, coming into the event, we did a lot of work focused on risk, risk management, risk mitigation, and we were really well prepared. We have all of the pre work done, and that included actually doing some early planning and preparatory lifts. So we practiced some of this stuff ahead of time to make sure that we had the equipment in the right spot, we had the people trained and ready to go, and everybody knew what their role was going to be.

[Shelley Powell, Senior VP of Operational Improvement & Support Services at Suncor Energy]

So we're very confident with the team that we have in place. A lot of these folks have actually done some of this type of work before, not necessarily at our site, but certainly the crane operator, they go around the world lifting coke drums into place. So this is just a different site for them to do that work.

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

And we were up there as a leadership team, what, six weeks ago, six, seven weeks ago or something. And I was going say we crawled all over that steel, but we crawled over a lot of concrete as well. And so it's a mix, it's a project, but it's extremely integrated with the operations. And I would say the Shelly's, your team coupled with Peter's team, that is the best collaboration between technical well, operations and projects that I probably witnessed in my career. And that's what it will take for this to be a huge success.

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

We have to be seamless in our execution, in our handoffs. And we won't declare victory until done, but we feel quite good about our level of preparation and planning.

[Manav Gupta, Executive Director at UBS Group]

Thank you so much for the detailed response and congrats on another strong quarter. Every quarter, you seem to be setting new positive records. Congratulations.

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

Thank you. Dial in next quarter.

[Operator]

Thank you. One moment for our next question. And that will come from the line of Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

[Neil Mehta, Head of Americas Natural Resources Equity Research at Goldman Sachs]

Yes. Good morning, Rich and team. Just want to start off with in a choppier macro, capital flexibility has been a hallmark of the businesses, Rich, you've run over the years. And so as we think about that 6.1% to 6.3% at capital, how are you thinking about that? And how do drive and maximize capital efficiency to ensure that there's headroom to continue to return capital to shareholders?

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

Yes. Thanks, Neal. If I could maybe let me step back just a little bit further than that. If you go back to May of last year, we outlined what our strategy how do we win with the asset base we have. And we talked about industry leading performance in operational integrity, reliability.

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

We highlighted it. In fact, it was on Page four, if I remember correctly, of the deck that driving to a cost structure that gave us financial resilience in a less than a $45 WTI business environment. I think I heard someone recently in a call reference their tagline that they're built for this. Well, Suncor's version, we are rebuilt for this. We are rebuilt for this business environment.

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

And what it allows us to do is execute our plans without hitting the gas or jamming on the brakes and doing what we know is in the best long term interest of the business. And I think that's important. We go through commodity swings in this business, whether that's the early 90s, the early 2000s or the late 90s, early 2000s, '20 '14, '20 '20. If you've been in this business long enough, you've seen this movie. It's not new.

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

But I'll take your question more explicitly. You do get more judicious on your economic spend. Does it do you establish a high hurdle for the economic payout? Do we need to spend it today? Or can we let the dust settle and see where we are six months or a year from now?

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

Those are the prudent things we're doing and looking at. And as we drive down our sustaining capital through improved turnaround performance and just work risk based work selection, our overall capital decompresses. We're also at a stage where a lot of our economic capital is wrapping up. And so we have the ability to say kind of what's next and at what pace. I talked about the CVR project.

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

Shelly just commented on the U1 CDIP. So as those tail off, we will determine what economic capital replaces those. Does it replace it now? Does it replace it later in the macro? And I like that flexibility.

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

But it all starts with a rock solid balance sheet, a low and very, very competitive WTI breakeven and today's Suncor is rebuilt for this business environment.

[Neil Mehta, Head of Americas Natural Resources Equity Research at Goldman Sachs]

No, that's fairly clear. It might be too early to comment on this Rich, especially given the macro. But as we start to bridge to '26, which is coming rapidly in front of us here, how should we think about the moving pieces around capital? And is it fair to say there's a downward bias relative to this year?

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

I think, again, if you go back to the investor deck of a year ago, we showed that 24%, twenty five %, twenty six %, we showed that coming down. And a part of that is improvement in the overall level of sustaining spend as we just make better, wiser decisions there. And then of course, the rest of it is the economic. And we'll I think the specific number I think for 2026 that we showed was 5.7. So it does show coming down year on year on year.

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

And I think that's exactly what we'll be driving toward. And if the business environment warrants that further, that's exactly what we'll evaluate as we go through our business planning process this year.

[Operator]

And that will come from the line of Menno Holzhoff with TD Securities. Your line is open.

[Menno Hulshof, MD - Equity Research at TD Securities]

Good morning, everyone. I'll start with a bigger question on the political landscape. And I think it's probably too early to comment, but has there been any response from the Feds on the group industry letter that was issued in recent weeks? And I guess the more specific part of the question is, have you been given any loose guidance on pathways or the oil and gas emissions cap? It feels to me like it's all generally a part of the same conversation, but any thoughts there would be helpful.

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

Yes, I think you described it well. It's pretty early in it. But if I go back to the two letters that industry signed, the first one was of seven or eight weeks ago now before the election where 14 CEOs signed a letter to the all of the political leaders on when we looked at the ambitions of the leadership for economic growth and prosperity for Canadians, that was our call to action that energy can and should, in fact, must be a part of that. And we said for that to occur, we're ready, willing and able to do that, but we need these conditions. And so the more recent letter, which was those original 14 and we had another long list, I think the final count was 38 energy CEOs signed on to that letter where we reiterated those conditions that we need to be a part of the ambition of the economic health and prosperity of Canadians.

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

And it's a bit early. Won't get into there are conversations going on. I won't get into what he said or she said. But I think that the alignment within the industry, the importance of the industry to the economic health and well-being of the country, I think that is understood. And I hope our call to action, which has a sense of urgency to it, I hope we see the political powers that be the will to enable that investment environment to allow this industry to perform to its full potential.

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

And when we do that, Canadians nationwide will benefit. And Suncor looks forward to being a part of that.

[Menno Hulshof, MD - Equity Research at TD Securities]

Thanks for that, Rich. And then my second question is on Firebag, which continues to perform exceptionally well. Is there anything you would want to flag in terms of recent changes to surface or subsurface best practices? Or is it more a function of improved execution on existing standards and protocols?

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

Firebag is one of the few big assets that I have not went to yet year to date primarily because I want to stay out of their way. That team is focused like a laser on incremental value. But what I will tell you is several of us here in the leadership team, we've had, what, five now? I think it's five sessions with our technical experts, geophysicists, engineers, geologists with logs, maps, cores, looking at how can we continue to extract and develop the full potential of this asset. We're looking at completion technologies.

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

We're looking at the non condensable natural gas utilization, further infill drilling. So the folks around the table with me, we've rolled up our sleeves to engage with the folks that see the opportunities. And every time I'm in one of those sessions, I walk away with a higher ambition, a higher expectation of what that asset can do, not only in the short term, but the long term. I've referred to it as everything as from a rock star to the gift that keeps on giving. I got to come up with some new phrases for it because that is a winning asset and that team understands that.

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

We're prioritizing the work, the allocation of capital to achieve it. And I think you can get used to on calls to come, we're going to continue to talk about progress at Firebag because it is just an incredible it is a pace setting asset that I as I've said before, you give me a choice of any single in situ asset in the province, my number one draft picks Firebag.

[Menno Hulshof, MD - Equity Research at TD Securities]

Just a point of clarification, are you applying NCG already? Or is that future upside?

[Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director at Suncor Energy]

Small amounts. But we see when we look at this is a great example in today's Suncor. When we look over our fence line and look at what others are doing and try to capture and accelerate their learnings, we see an opportunity for us to further expand that, redistribute steam, lower our steam oil ratio and develop incremental barrels. So yes, we've been applying it, but our future will be applying it at a larger scale.

[Menno Hulshof, MD - Equity Research at TD Securities]

Perfect. Thanks, Rich. I'll turn it back.

[Operator]

You. I'm showing no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the conference back to Mr. Troy Little for closing remarks.

[Troy Little, SVP - External Affairs at Suncor Energy]

Thank you, everyone, for joining our call this morning. If you have any follow-up questions, please don't hesitate to reach out to our team. Operator, you can end the call.

[Operator]

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

Participants

Executives

• Troy Little, SVP - External Affairs
• Rich Kruger, President, CEO & Director
• Kris Smith, Chief Financial Officer
• Peter Zebedee, Executive Vice President of Oil Sands
• Dave Oldreive, Executive Vice President of Downstream
• Shelley Powell, Senior VP of Operational Improvement & Support Services

Analysts

• Dennis Fong, Equity Research Analyst at CIBC Capital Markets
• Greg Pardy, MD & Head of Global Energy Research at RBC Capital Markets
• Manav Gupta, Executive Director at UBS Group
• Neil Mehta, Head of Americas Natural Resources Equity Research at Goldman Sachs
• Menno Hulshof, MD - Equity Research at TD Securities