Torm Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
May 8, 2025

Key Takeaways

  • Positive Sentiment: Strong Q1 Results: TORM reported first‐quarter TCE of $214 million, EBITDA of $136 million and net profit of €63 million, reflecting stable freight rates and solid earnings.
  • Positive Sentiment: Declared a dividend of $0.40 per share and achieved EPS of $0.64, demonstrating a disciplined, transparent and sustainable capital allocation strategy.
  • Positive Sentiment: Successfully divested three 20-year-old MR vessels and one 17-year-old LR2 vessel despite a quiet secondhand market, underscoring the high quality and maintenance standards of the fleet.
  • Negative Sentiment: The shipping market remains highly dynamic with risks from Red Sea disruptions, EU sanctions, OPEC+ production changes and U.S. trade policy, requiring agility amid elevated uncertainty.
  • Positive Sentiment: Narrowed full-year guidance to TCE of $700 million–$900 million and EBITDA of DKK 400 million–DKK 600 million, supported by 43% coverage of 2025 earning days at $27,829 per day.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Torm Q1 2025
00:00 / 00:00

There are 6 speakers on the call.

Operator

Thank you for standing by. My name is Janice, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the TORM First Quarter twenty twenty five Results. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker remarks, we will have a question and answer session.

Operator

Thank you. I would now like to turn the call over to Jacob Melka, CEO. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Thank you, Janice, and a warm welcome to everyone joining us on the call today. This morning, we released our report with the interim results for the first quarter of twenty twenty five. TORM achieved a solid result in the quarter, in line with our expectations. But again, it was a quarter that has been influenced by a wide range of external factors that we need to take into consideration.

Speaker 1

The first quarter reflected a more stable market environment compared to the volatility we experienced in the latter half of last year. TCE amounted to $214,000,000 thus broadly in line with the previous quarter, signaling early signs of stabilization following the declines we saw in the second half of twenty twenty four. Fleet wide freight rates remained consistent with the levels seen in the fourth quarter, enabling us to deliver solid earnings. For the quarter, we achieved a net profit of €63,000,000 demonstrating that while our income has normalized compared to the elevated levels a year ago, we continue to generate strong and sustainable results. I'd also like to highlight that we successfully divested several Boulder vessels.

Speaker 1

Despite a quiet secondhand market with buyers and sellers struggling to align on pricing, we secured the sale of three twenty year old MR vessels during the first quarter and one seventeen year old LR2 vessel after the end of the quarter. These transactions underscore the high quality and strong maintenance standards of our fleet. Looking into the reaming part of 2025, the shipping market remains highly dynamic with sentiment continuing to shift new factors emerging at a faster pace. This environment presents both challenges and opportunities, and it reinforces the need for us to be agile and adapt quickly to changes. To stay ahead, we maintain a sharp focus on monitoring and analyzing new trends, ensuring that we're ready to respond quickly to evolving conditions and can position ourselves effectively amid heightened uncertainty.

Speaker 1

As part of this approach, I will, on the following slides, walk you through some of the key issues currently on our radar. Please turn to Slide five. Since the second half of last year, product tanker freight rates have lost momentum compared to the high levels seen since 2022, but the rates have nevertheless remained at levels which are still strong in historical terms. One of the main reasons behind lower rates has been the fact that the Red Sea disruption effect has not been supportive of the product tanker ton miles since the last quarter of twenty twenty four. And here, I'll turn to Slide six, and I can elaborate on that.

Speaker 1

While crude cannibalization has normalized, trade volumes on the routes, mostly affected by the Red Sea disruption, have lost momentum. By the start of this year, trade volumes from The Middle East to Europe have fallen by around 40% compared to the first three quarters of twenty twenty four. Lower trade volumes, counterbalance, longer trading businesses and with this, the tonne mile impact of the Red Sea disruption has been non existent or even negative in recent months. Since March, we have, however, seen some rebound in these trades. Nevertheless, we believe that such low trade levels are not sustainable, especially considering that European diesel demand this year is supported by increased demand for marine gas oil from the Mediterranean emission control area, starting from this month.

Speaker 1

At the same time, three refineries in Northwest Europe are closing, leading to lower local product supply. According to our calculations, Europe is about to lose around 140,000 barrels per day of combined diesel and jet fuel supply by the end of this year. If all of this were replaced by imported fuels from The Middle East, this will translate into an additional demand of 12 LR2 equivalents per year, which is a conservative estimate based on the Red Sea transit. This corresponds to around 5% of the current CPP trading LR2 fleet. At the same time, since the start of the fourth quarter last year, 24 newbuild LR2s have entered the fleet, while the size of the CPP trading fleet has actually declined by around 20 vessels.

Speaker 1

This means that more than 40 vessels have left the clean trade and are now trading dirty instead. Please turn to Slide seven. Looking a bit further ahead, the product tanker market is expected to continue to be driven by geopolitical factors and high uncertainty. While a sustainable return of the Red Sea shipping in the near term is uncertain, we estimate that it could encourage trade and return the volumes lost since the end of last year. The return of lost trade volumes can potentially offset shorter trade distances and at the same time, incentives for crude cleanups would decline.

Speaker 1

When it comes to EU sanctions against Russia, we do not foresee a quick abolishment of these. And the last months have shown that the prospects for a CP settlement remain highly uncertain. Further to this, internal disputes within OPEC plus have resulted in a sizable production increase in May and another one in June, accelerating the time line for unwinding voluntary production costs. With the potential to continue this trend, we expect this to have a favorable effect on the crude tanker market indirectly supporting product tankers. Last but definitely not least, a new layer of uncertainty stems from the current U.

Speaker 1

S. Administration's approach towards geopolitics and trade policy. Although it has caused a lot of uncertainty, the measures implemented so far are not expected to have any major direct effect on the product tanker market. However, a potential slowdown in global economic activity and consequently lower oil demand can have indirect effects on our market. On the other hand, the U.

Speaker 1

S. Administration's more tough approach towards Iran, towards Venezuela is expected to indirectly benefit product tankers via strong crude tanker markets. The much discussed U. S. TR Section three zero one port fee has currently been revised to a version which will not have any material impact on the product tanker market as a majority of voyages will avoid the fee.

Speaker 1

Please turn to Slide eight. Let me also turn to the tonnage supply side. And as we pointed out earlier, the relatively high product tanker order book should be seen in combination with the fact that the average age of the fleet is the highest in two decades, With 15% of the fleet being more than 20 years old, this will potentially offset a large part of the fleet growth in the coming years. Furthermore, we see that as vessels turn towards 20 years of age, their average utilization drops significantly compared to younger vessels. That will lead to a growing share of the fleet operating at lower utilization.

Speaker 1

In addition, a large share of especially the older fleet is sanctioned, which is expected to support exits from the market. This is basically the case for the combined LR2Aframax fleet, where a relatively large share of the fleet is under U. S. Sanctions. Finally, the ordering of new vessels has basically come to a standstill this year with the combined capacity of LR1s, LR2s and MRs ordered in the first quarter of this year at the lowest quarterly levels in three years.

Speaker 1

Now kindly turn to Slide nine. To sum up on the market, we continue to operate in an environment characterized by high yield position uncertainty where the speed of change has increased significantly. While feed growth will gain pace compared to recent years, we still see favorable developments in the refinery landscape. I'm certain that Torom is well positioned to maneuver in this environment of increased uncertainty through our strong capital structure, operational leverage and integrated platform. And now with that, I'll hand it over to Kym, who will walk us through the financials.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Jacob. Now please turn to Slide 11 for an overview of the financials. In the quarter, OTC amounted to million. And based on this, we achieved US136 million dollars in EBITDA and US63 million dollars in net profit. Feedback, we averaged TCE rates of close to 27,000 per day, with LR2s close to US34000 per dollars day, LR1s at US25000 dollars and MR slightly below this.

Speaker 2

All these numbers are in line with the 84% coverage that we published in connection with our full year results in March. Thus freight rates have stabilized at a level compared to Q4 twenty twenty four, reflecting strong underlying fundamentals. This renewed stability offers a solid foundation as we move throughout the year with our earnings remaining highly sensitive to market volatility due to our operational leverage. Based on this, TORM achieved basic earnings per share for Q1 of $0.64 per share and the Board has decided to declare a dividend of $0.40 per share. We believe that our approach ensures that distributions align with actual financial performance, maintaining a disciplined, transparent and sustainable capital allocation strategy.

Speaker 2

Please turn to Slide 12. On this slide, we show the quarter by quarter development of our TCE since the first quarter of twenty twenty four. Looking back, it is now clear how the elevated freight rates in the 2024 gave way to softer conditions later in the year, impacting our overall performance. Today, freight rates have stabilized at a lower but still healthy level that supports solid financial performance. Despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, tonne mile demand fundamentals remain supportive, although we remain mindful that conditions can shift quickly.

Speaker 2

In this market, we generated TCE of $214,000,000 and EBITDA of $136,000,000 based on a fee by rate of $26,807 per day. As a reminder, due to our operational leverage, a change of dollars one in day freight rates would have an EBITDA impact of approximately US8 million dollars per quarter based on around 8,000 earning days. This highlights the significant earnings sensitivity to freight rate movements, which remains a key consideration for our financial outlook. Likewise, on Slide 13, we provide a breakdown of the quarterly development in net profit and the key share related ratios. While the current freight rate environment has led to a sequential decline in net profit, earnings per share and consequently dividend per share, it is important to emphasize that earnings remain at historically attractive levels.

Speaker 2

Also, our approach to shareholder returns remain firm and consistent. We continue to return excess liquidity on a quarterly basis while safeguarding financial strength through a disciplined buffer. Our liquidity threshold is based on two components: a fixed minimum of $1.8 per vessel and discretionary element determined by the Board, which considers capital structure, future investment needs and overall market sentiment. For the first quarter, this disciplined approach has resulted in a declared dividend of $0.40 per share, in line with our free cash flow net of debt repayments, reflecting both our earnings performance and our continued commitment to responsible capital allocation. And now please turn to Slide 14.

Speaker 2

As illustrated on the slide, following several quarters of steadily rising investment values, we saw the first correction in Q4 last year, and that trend has continued into Q1 twenty twenty five. Average broker valuations for our fleet declined to $3.0.1 down 12% compared to year end. Aligning more closely with actual market transactions, the largest valuation drop has been in older vessels from 2010 to 2012, a reduction of up to 18%, while newer tonnage has set up relatively well, showing only single digit declines. Turning to the center charge. Our net interest bearing debt now stands at DKK $832,000,000, which with a stable net loan to value of 27% before distribution of dividends for Q4 twenty twenty four.

Speaker 2

This is consistent with year end and underscoring the strength of our conservative capital structure. On the right, you will find our debt maturity profile. So over the next twelve months, we only have million in borrowings maturing, equal to 13% of the total plus CHF14 million in committed scrubber installations. Beyond that, our obligations remain manageable with no major maturities until mid-twenty twenty nine. Altogether, our solid financial foundation gives us flexibility to navigate current market conditions and to pursue value creating opportunities as they arise.

Speaker 2

And now please turn to Slide 15 for the outlook. Our performance in the first quarter puts us on a solid path to achieving our full year guidance. Also based on our rates and coverage as of May 2025, we have fixed a total of 57 of our earning days at $28,026 per day in the second quarter across the fleet. Likewise, for the full year 2025, we have now fixed a total of 43% of our earning days at $27,829 per day. That said, we continue to operate in a volatile geopolitical environment, and we recognize that actual results may deviate depending on how key events unfold.

Speaker 2

Nevertheless, we are comfortable in narrowing the guidance range compared to the guidance provided to the markets two months ago. Thus, we forecast full year TCE earnings in the range of US700 million to US900 million dollars compared to the previous guidance of US650 million to US950 million Likewise, we narrowed the range for our expected EBITDA to DKK 400,000,000 to DKK 600,000,000 compared to the previous guidance of DKK $350,000,000 to DKK $650,000,000. This outlook incorporates an expected year over year decline in freight rates, aligned with both current spot rates and the forward market trends. And with this, I conclude my remarks and hand it back to the operator.

Operator

Your first question comes from the line of John Chappell with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.

Speaker 3

Thank you. Good afternoon. Good morning, John. Jacob, you laid out a bunch of different geopolitical and macro uncertainties and maybe the different path forward. No offense, but I imagine you don't have any better idea on how many of these things are going to play out than we do.

Speaker 3

So knowing what you can control, which is capital allocation, capital structure, vessel sales, purchases, chartering, etcetera. Has there been any shift to any of those strategies, financial or operational, that maybe twelve months ago, just given all of these different moving parts and the different somewhat binary outcomes?

Speaker 1

That's a good question. I would say on the financial side, really, it's really extremely stable. I mean, we keep the discipline and we also sort of keep discipline around where our cash is headed when we deliver the strong results like in this quarter. So I would say on that. Now on the business side, I think we are as I also alluded to, I think we are seeing that I think we are gradually sort of meeting a new normalization of the freight rate compared to where we were a year ago.

Speaker 1

And that in this more normalized environment, I think it's time to maybe take the calculator out again and see what makes sense in terms of the fee composition. But it's probably a little early. We've divested as we normally do when the vessels are of a vintage, which is not really servicing our clients that well, which is around the twenty years. We've done that this year. I think we'll continue to do that.

Speaker 1

And then it's really up to Mr. Market to see what comes out of opportunities in terms of acquiring assets. We haven't seen anything yet that is also transpiring to be interesting. But obviously, in a normalized rate environment,

Speaker 4

that could be something to look at.

Speaker 1

Early days, but I think that's probably the change there.

Speaker 3

Okay. Two quick follow ups to that. One, the payout ratio on the IFRS earnings was about 64% for the dividend in the first quarter. Is that just coincidentally lower than the last several quarters? Or does that somewhat reflect maybe a bit of the uncertainty going forward?

Speaker 3

And then the second follow-up is you had mentioned in your prepared remarks somewhat, I don't know what the right term is, but maybe less liquidity in the secondhand market. As you talk about that fleet path going forward, do you envision that that secondhand market may gain more liquidity in the near term? Or do you think it may be status quo in the industry for the next six or so months until we get a little bit more clarity on some of these outcomes?

Speaker 1

Yes, good. So let me start with your second follow-up question, and I'll let Kim talk to the first. So I think what we are seeing is that in a market where secondary sales are less frequent, so lower liquidity as we discussed. Then what has served us really well is that the vessels that we have, which we keep in house, we have the technical and everything operational sort of under the control of ourselves has meant that the type of buyers that are active in this relatively illiquid market, they gravitate towards the type of business that we've got because they are maintained to a standard where they can actually meet any customer's requirement on any day. So I actually don't need so much to qualify whether there will be more liquidity because what we are seeing is that there is a low liquidity, but it's sufficient for us to transact the deals that we want to do.

Speaker 1

I do think that as the market sort of normalizes, I would be inclined to think that you will see more meaning of minds between buyers and sellers. But irrespective, that is my expectation over the coming months that we will see sort of that to normalize more.

Speaker 5

John. It's Jim.

Speaker 3

Hi, Jim.

Speaker 2

Regarding the payout ratio, of course, that's one thing that you can adjust for that is we have the impact of the sale of vessels. So if you take that out, of course, you can normalize it a bit, and then we are above 70%, probably more like 70%, 73%, 74%. But the way we do it is consistent with what we have done throughout this whole period ever since we changed the dividend policy actually. So I think you allude to the right thing. It is more working capital fluctuations that can deviate a bit.

Speaker 2

So one quarter can be 74,000,000 another quarter 79,000,000 or 72,000,000 So that is where you shall sort of see the slight deviation. We've basically not changed anything. But of course, as Jacob also said, that the conservativeness that we have when we divest vessels where we basically just keep the cash, that, of course, has a little impact on the payout ratio. And we've done that consistently throughout the whole period. So we just maintain it on the balance sheet.

Speaker 2

And therefore, you can see some deviations. But you shall find it in the working capital because it's the same methodology we use every quarter. Next

Operator

question comes from the line of Bendik Biedenis with Clarksons. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Yes. Hi, guys.

Speaker 1

Hi, Benedict.

Speaker 4

I'll jump on the market, I think. So you were talking about there essentially being no real support from the Red Sea disruption recently. And with, I think, The U. S. President tweeting that there is a deal with the group is going on, but that is still a bit up in the air.

Speaker 4

How do you view sort of the market in the event of a reopening? Should we expect some disruptions and instant movement on cost rates in the short term in the event of a reopening?

Speaker 1

Yes. I mean time will tell on both parameters whether there is a deal that we can all trust with the Hutus. But let's just make the assumption that, that is actually the case. Then what will happen with the market? I think what we are seeing with our customers, we had a client meeting actually earlier this week with one of the largest producers of oil in the world.

Speaker 1

And their team on the sales said, they couldn't really recall when it was last that the arbitrage for them was open for the diesel going moving from Middle East into Europe. So right now, the producers are really not incentivized to hold bigger volumes of diesel from Middle East into Europe. You will, of course, have the odd trade that needs to be done, but sort of the marginal trade in Europe is not done. I think it would actually, in that sense in the short end, I think you would see a reopening of the Red Sea that you would have more demand coming quite quickly because the arc would definitely be much more supported by that particular trade move. But I do think that if we sort of average out over a longer period, then I think it is demand neutral.

Speaker 1

I don't think that it is going up or down as such. But I think that would be kind of an immediate kind of flurry of cargoes that could move quite fast in the case of that you had a reopening.

Speaker 4

Perfect. That's great color. I'll leave it back in queue.

Speaker 1

Yes. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jay McGarry with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hey guys, thanks for taking the question. Just had a market question. You mentioned the supply and how it can play out down the road given the current fleet age and maybe some scrapping down the line. But just for now, the LR2 deliveries generally coming in more so than previous years. Can you describe just the impact in today's market with that oncoming supply, just how noticeable is it and if you see those ships staying in a clean trade or switching over?

Speaker 1

Yes. Well, at least going forward, we don't know yet. But if we just take the data points that we have on hand from, let's say, the last couple of quarters, Then as you point to, there is more newbuilds that have sort of been placed and that are labeled on the ordering and sort of out of the yard as here comes a new LR2. And as I alluded to a little in the prepared remarks also, we saw that you had globally around two fifty LR2s that were trading as clean vessels in the end of the third quarter last year, whereas as of today, right now as we speak, you probably have around two thirty. So actually the number has declined by 20.

Speaker 1

And in the interim period, you've had exactly as you point to, you've had about 24 newbuild deliveries of this type of vessel. So if the world was flat, we would today say, okay, you had two fifty steam train vessels, you added 24 newbuilds, so you would have two seventy four. But actually trading is two thirty. Going forward, of course, what we believe is that you should look upon LR2 and AFRA as an integrated trade. These ship owners, the investors, they are not that caring about whether their vessel as they come out of a yard will enter one market or the other.

Speaker 1

What they care about, what is the return on investment. And that's of course also how we operate our LR2 fleet. We will from time to time operate in clean. We will from time to time operate as an Afra. And I think this swing factor will be very dominant going forward.

Speaker 1

And obviously, given that the age profile of the Aframax fleet globally is much more prone to that they are business older vessels, you will see that there will be more scrapping potential as new vessels come into the market. So I think this market is actually much more finely balanced than what sort of the labeling of the ships, I. E, that we only have LR2s coming out of yards. Well, they may be coming into the TPP market, but they may just as well be trading as Aframaxes. And I think the data points that we've had, as I just pointed to over the last six, nine months, actually sort of points to that, that is a fair way to think about that market.

Speaker 5

Great. Thanks for the color. I'll turn it over.

Speaker 1

Thanks. Thanks for the question.

Operator

I will now turn the call back over to Jacob Melkhart, CEO, for closing remarks. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Yes. Thanks a lot, James. Thanks for everyone for dialing in to the first quarter twenty twenty five results presentation. Have a great day.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.

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