Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
July 22, 2025

Key Takeaways

  • Positive Sentiment: Q2 EBITDA margin of 28% beat guidance, with TRASM at 7.8¢ and ancillary revenue per passenger at $54 driving resilience.
  • Positive Sentiment: Cost control maintained, with CASM ex fuel at $5.69 despite lower capacity growth and fuel costs down 14% year-over-year.
  • Positive Sentiment: Full-year guidance reinstated, expecting 32%–33% EBITDA margin and ~7% ASM growth for 2025, underpinned by stronger H2 demand.
  • Positive Sentiment: Commercial agility boosted demand, including airport fee unbundling, new codeshare partnerships, and launch of the Altitude loyalty program to enhance revenue mix.
  • Negative Sentiment: Q2 net loss of $63 million and ongoing engine groundings (avg. 36 aircraft) pressured operations and contributed to a 2.9x net debt/EBITDA ratio.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion Q2 2025
00:00 / 00:00

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Operator

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to Valera's Second Quarter twenty twenty five Financial Results Conference Call. All lines are in listen only mode. Following the company's presentation, we will open the call for your questions.

Operator

Please note that we are recording this event. This event is also being broadcast live via webcast and can be accessed through the Valaris website. At this point, I would like to turn the call over to Ricardo Martinez, Investor Relations Director. Please go ahead, Ricardo.

Ricardo Martínez
Director - IR at Volaris

Good morning, and thank you for joining the call. With us is our President and CEO, Enrique Beltranena our Airline Executive Vice President, Holder Blanketpeng and our chief financial officer Jaime Post. They will be discussing the company's second quarter twenty twenty five results. Afterwards, we will move on to your questions. Please note that this call is for investors and analysts only.

Ricardo Martínez
Director - IR at Volaris

Before we begin, please remember that this call may include forward looking statements within the meaning of applicable securities laws. Forward looking statements are subject to several factors that could cause the company's results to differ materially from expectations, as described in the company's filings with the United States SEC and Mexico CNBV. These statements speak only as of the day they are made, and Volaris undertakes no obligation to update or modify any forward looking statements. As in our earnings press release, our numbers are in U. S.

Ricardo Martínez
Director - IR at Volaris

Dollars compared to the second quarter of twenty twenty four, unless otherwise noted. And with that, I will turn the call over to Henrik.

Enrique Javier Beltranena Mejicano
President & CEO at Volaris

Good morning, and thank you for joining us. If there is one message I want to leave you with today is that Volaris has proven its resilience time and again and we are well positioned to keep doing so. Yes, this is a challenging industry and we're not immune to external headwinds, but we stay focused on what we can control, we adapt quickly and execute with discipline. We believe there is a significant opportunity ahead and remain confident in our ability to deliver value for shareholders. We delivered second quarter results slightly ahead of our guidance, achieving a 28% EBITDA margin, which we expect will again rank near the top of the North American airline industry.

Enrique Javier Beltranena Mejicano
President & CEO at Volaris

Throughout the quarter, we took advantage of our flexible business model and took decisive actions to capitalize on demand across our network. Coupled with tactical capacity adjustments through the quarter, we delivered TRASM of 7.8¢ ahead of our forecasted range. Ancillary revenue per passenger reached $54 remaining resilient with limited price elasticity and serving as a key contributor to total revenue. To reiterate, we stay focused on what we can control, particularly maintaining cost efficiency. CASM ex fuel remained contained at $5.69 despite lower capacity growth than initially planned.

Enrique Javier Beltranena Mejicano
President & CEO at Volaris

The quarter started on a softer demand note, so we prioritized sustaining load factors through demand stimulation. However, as we saw signs of demand sequentially improving by mid quarter, we shifted gears to maximize margin performance. In the domestic market, as some initial fears around tariffs and its economic pressures eased, we turned our focus to yields and strategically capturing higher fares where possible. While hesitancy to travel remained on US routes, we took advantage of fare elasticity among travelers willing to book close to departure. While international load factors moderated as we prioritized yield expansion, domestic load factors recovered to 88% by quarter end.

Enrique Javier Beltranena Mejicano
President & CEO at Volaris

This drove a total second quarter load factor of 82%. Recent demand trends have been constructive and we see potential for cross border traffic to recover once volatility is yes. Let me provide additional context. During the quarter, Volaris conducted sentiment service among passengers on both sides of the border. We found that a significant portion of travelers have mainly paused their travel plans due to fears of deteriorating economic conditions, possibly linked to immigration rhetoric.

Enrique Javier Beltranena Mejicano
President & CEO at Volaris

In response, we implemented several initiatives, including increased flexibility, the option to defer airport fee payments until checking, among others. It is worth noting that 75% of respondents ultimately intended to fly again within the next six months, suggesting that underlying demand remains positive into the future. Looking ahead, we want to reiterate that our capacity decisions will continue to be anchored in two guiding priorities: customer demand and sustained profitability. While US immigration uncertainties may continue to influence demand in the near term, we see this as a manageable medium term factor. Despite this, an ongoing industry wide OEMs constraints and macroeconomic conditions, we continue growing aligned with market trends.

Enrique Javier Beltranena Mejicano
President & CEO at Volaris

Encouragingly, demand for the second half of the year is shaping up to be stronger than the first half and is tracking in line with historical patterns. With improved visibility, we are reinstating our full year EBITDA margin guidance, now expecting a range of 32% to 33%. This outlook is supported by fundamental drivers pointing to sequential improvement in the second half of twenty twenty five. I want to emphasize that regardless of external conditions, Volaris has consistently delivered results in line with guidance over many consecutive quarters. Looking ahead to 2026, in light of the current macroeconomic environment, we're embedding additional flexibility into our fleet plan, positioning Volaris to grow ASMs in the mid single digits in line with emerging market dynamics.

Enrique Javier Beltranena Mejicano
President & CEO at Volaris

Our agile approach to managing the productive fleet enables capacity adjustments of about three percentage points in either direction, allowing us to respond to demand trends while maintaining margin discipline. I will now turn the call over to Holger to continue to discuss our second quarter commercial and operational performance. Holger, please.

Holger Blankenstein
EVP - Airline Commercial & Operations at Volaris

Thank you, Enrique. Good morning, everyone. During the quarter, we took several decisive actions focused on two guiding priorities mentioned by customer demand and sustained profitability. These included deploying capacity with agility without affecting already booked passengers, rapidly diagnosing elasticity in both domestic and international markets, which performed differently, as domestic was more responsive to lower base fares, while international showed lower elasticity and continuing to deliver excellent customer service while introducing new value options for customers and passengers and targeting new customer segments. Let's now move to our commercial results, while also highlighting the aforementioned initiatives and associated outcomes.

Holger Blankenstein
EVP - Airline Commercial & Operations at Volaris

Throughout the quarter, we acted nimbly in response to early softness in April bookings. As the quarter progressed, we began capturing higher fares in close in bookings and saw continued strength in ancillary purchases. We adjusted our capacity growth to support TRASM. We reduced ASMs each month of the quarter resulting in 8.7% year over year growth or 1.7% sequential growth. Domestic load factor reached 88%, while international load factor was 75%, as we prioritized yields over loads resulting in a total load factor of 82%.

Holger Blankenstein
EVP - Airline Commercial & Operations at Volaris

TRASM declined 12% year over year to 7.8¢ versus the 17% reduction we observed in the first quarter. Ancillaries continue to be a significant bright spot in our business. These products have proven highly resilient in all conditions, with our average ancillary revenue per passenger remaining virtually unchanged across markets. Our average ancillary revenue per passenger for the quarter was $54 continuing a strong trend above the $50 threshold and consistently accounting for over 50% of total operating revenues. Purchases from members of the V Club, our Discount Club, now drive around 16% of our total revenues.

Holger Blankenstein
EVP - Airline Commercial & Operations at Volaris

Digging deeper, we are adapting our business model to meet the changing needs of the market. This includes lowering barriers to travel, serving diverse customer segments and encouraging repeat travel. All of this has been accomplished without losing our DNA as an ultra low cost carrier. To lower barriers to travel, we recently decoupled the airport UC from the ticket purchase process, allowing customers to pay the fee anytime before check-in rather than at the time of booking. This enables travelers to lock in low base fares, while giving them the flexibility to pay the expensive airport fees later on.

Holger Blankenstein
EVP - Airline Commercial & Operations at Volaris

We also introduced a summer campaign aimed at stimulating international demand, which remains strategic and profitable despite recent softness. This initiative gives customers greater flexibility. If their plans change, they can cancel their booking without penalties and request a refund. In addition, we are maturing our paid ancillary product that allows passengers to cancel for any reason, providing extra peace of mind and more flexibility for their travel plan. Given the Mexican market configuration, we believe Volaris is well positioned to address more diverse, attractive passenger segments.

Holger Blankenstein
EVP - Airline Commercial & Operations at Volaris

To capitalize on this opportunity, we have expanded our customer footprint through codeshare agreements, which generate additional revenues without adding cost. Frontier was our first and most natural partner, given our shared ownership and compatible systems. As a reminder, this partnership contributes around two to three percentage points to our international load factor. Building on that success, we have developed further partnerships with airlines such as Copa, Iberia and Hainan aligned with foreign investment in Mexico, the Mexican diaspora and inbound tourism. As a key step in driving repeat travel and rewarding passenger loyalty, we are pleased to announce the launch of our in house loyalty program Altitude.

Holger Blankenstein
EVP - Airline Commercial & Operations at Volaris

The growing strength of our recurring revenue streams is a clear validation for this move. Nearly 30% of our bookings include at least one membership product, signaling strong customer engagement. Historically, loyalty programs and international partnerships have been dominated by legacy carriers in Mexico. However, we believe there is significant opportunity for us to grow in this space without sacrificing our cost advantage. With strong presence in key markets like Mexico City, Tijuana and Guadalajara, we are well positioned to expand this strategy further.

Holger Blankenstein
EVP - Airline Commercial & Operations at Volaris

As the largest airline by passengers in Mexico, we are excited about the value that all these initiatives bring to both our customers and to Volaris. Our goal is to position Volaris as the airline of choice, not only for our core VFR base, but for all passenger segments traveling from our key cities across the network. We know how to introduce new ancillaries and partnerships in a low cost, low complexity way and you can expect us to continue innovating our offering. Moving to our operations, in the second quarter key metrics remained strong, with an on time performance within fifteen minutes of 80.9%, a scheduled completion rate of 99.6% and continued strength in the overall Volaris experience, reflected in customer satisfaction and a net promoter score of 34%. Looking ahead to the third quarter, the summer season load factors are in line with normal seasonality and the revenue team is working on yielding up on close in bookings, with customers making decisions closer into departure and we also remain sensitive to macro and geopolitical headlines.

Holger Blankenstein
EVP - Airline Commercial & Operations at Volaris

I want to reiterate on Enrique's priorities for Velaris customer demand and sustained profitability. From my perspective, the capacity reductions already executed are sufficient to align with demand and support the achievement of our full year guidance. Now, I will turn the call over to Jaime to cover our second quarter twenty twenty five financial results and guidance.

Jaime Esteban Pous Fernández
CFO at Volaris

Thank you, Holger. Our financial performance through the second quarter evolved in line with what we had anticipated and we worked with discipline to maintain our costs and financial position. Compared with the same period last year, our second quarter twenty twenty five results were as follows: total operating revenues were $693,000,000 a 5% decrease on the cost side CASM was 8.05¢, a reduction of 0.3% Average economic fuel costs declined 14% to $2.46 per gallon. CasoMex fuel was 5.69¢, up 7%, aligned with our guidance as we conformed costs in spite of flying fewer than planned ASMs during this period. The main changes year over year with regards to the specific P and L lines were in maintenance as well as aircraft and engine variable lease expenses.

Jaime Esteban Pous Fernández
CFO at Volaris

The increase in the maintenance line resulted from a higher number of maintenance events and increased aircraft utilization. Aircraft and engine variable lease expenses rose 24%, mainly due to redelivery accruals for the scheduled aircraft returns. In the other operating income line, we booked sale and leaseback gains of $4,800,000 related to Airbus deliveries of two new aircraft. As a reminder, this line also includes our aircraft grounding compensation from Pratt and Whitney. EBITDA reached $194,000,000 with a margin of 28%, which came in above the guidance provided for the quarter.

Jaime Esteban Pous Fernández
CFO at Volaris

EBIT was a loss of $22,000,000 with a margin of minus 3.2%. Finally, we incurred a net loss of $63,000,000 translated into a loss per ADS of $0.55 Moving briefly to our P and L for the first six months of 2025 compared to the same period of 2024, total operating revenues were $1,400,000,000 an 8% decrease. Cash flow was $7.97 a 1% decrease with an average economic fuel cost of $2.54 per gallon, 13% lower. CASM ex fuel was $5.54 6% higher. EBITDA totaled €397,000,000 a 20% decrease with an EBITDAR margin of 29%.

Jaime Esteban Pous Fernández
CFO at Volaris

EBIT was a loss of €32,000,000 representing an EBIT margin of minus 2.4%. Net loss was $114,000,000 or minus $1 per ADS. Turning now to cash flow and balance sheet data. The cash flow generated by operating activities in the second quarter was $136,000,000 The cash outflows used in investing and financing activities were $60,000,000 and $197,000,000 respectively. Second quarter CapEx, excluding fleet pre delivery payments, totaled $25,000,000 year to date stood at $88,500,000 in line with the $250,000,000 we expect for the full year.

Jaime Esteban Pous Fernández
CFO at Volaris

Volaris ended the quarter with a total liquidity position of $788,000,000 representing 26% of the last twelve months' total operating revenues. We are maintaining a disciplined and conservative approach to cash management, with a target of keeping liquidity above 20% of the last twelve months' revenues. The same discipline and conservativeness apply to our debt management. Our net debt to EBITDA ratio stood at 2.9 times, slightly above the 2.7 times in the 2025 and unchanged from the same period last year. While we expect a sequential increase in the third quarter, this is anticipated to mark the peak of leverage, with gradual improvement projected through the end of the year.

Jaime Esteban Pous Fernández
CFO at Volaris

Moreover, all of our pre delivery payments for aircraft scheduled for delivery through mid-twenty twenty eight are already financed. Our strong balance sheet with no material near term debt maturities, excellent liquidity position and discipline in controlling costs give us confidence that Volaris is well positioned to navigate the current environment. Now turning to engine availability and our fleet plan. As of June 30, our fleet consisted of 149 aircraft with an average age of six point five years, with 63% of the fleet being fuel efficient new models. During the second quarter, we had an average of 36 engine related aircraft groundings.

Jaime Esteban Pous Fernández
CFO at Volaris

Turning now to guidance. We are seizing the opportunity to focus on what we can control and reduce the range of potential outcomes for the year by adjusting capacity to prioritize profitability. With that improved visibility, we are restated our full year EBITA margin guidance and expecting sequential improvement in the second half of twenty twenty five. As a result, our updated full year 2025 guidance is as follows: ASM growth of around 7% year over year, compared with our prior expectation of 8% to 9% EBITDAR margin in the range of 32% to 33% and CapEx, net of financed fleet pre delivery payments, of approximately $250,000,000 This outlook assumes an average foreign exchange rate of around 0.65 Mexican pesos per US dollar. We also assume an average US Gulf Coast jet fuel price of approximately $2.1 per gallon.

Jaime Esteban Pous Fernández
CFO at Volaris

Moving on to our 2025 guidance, we are expecting ASM increase of approximately 6% year over year, TRASM of around $0.86 CASM ex fuel of approximately $0.55 and an EBITDAR margin in the range of 32% to 33%. This quarterly outlook assumes an average foreign exchange rate of around 19 Mexican pesos per US dollar and an average U. S. Gulf Coast jet fuel price of approximately $2.2 per gallon during the quarter. Now I will turn the call back over to Enrique for closing remarks.

Enrique Javier Beltranena Mejicano
President & CEO at Volaris

Thank you Jaime. Volaris is a one of a kind best in class airline in North America. We are truly a world benchmark in unit cost and have a strong balance sheet to help us weather the volatility. We are attractive to lessors and lenders with low leverage and no near term maturities. Our long standing leadership team brings exceptional industry expertise and stability, which continues to be a key differentiator for Volaris and I feel very proud of them.

Enrique Javier Beltranena Mejicano
President & CEO at Volaris

Volaris serves a growing customer base in an emerging economic region where we have played a leading role in democratizing air travel over the past two decades. In Mexico, 73% of the domestic market is served by ultra low cost carriers underscoring the strength and viability of this model in emerging economies. Nearly 40% of our routes are uniquely served by Volaris, enabling us to continue converting bus passengers to air travel through our highly competitive pricing. Increasingly, our goal is to further capitalize on our market leadership by expanding high value offerings and diversifying our passenger segments. When combined with our strong operational performance, this makes for a resilient, differentiated business model with enhanced margin mix distinct from The U.

Enrique Javier Beltranena Mejicano
President & CEO at Volaris

S. Landscape in many, many meaningful ways. Thank you very much for listening. Operator, please open this line for questions.

Operator

Thank you. The floor is now open for questions. If you have a question, please dial 11 on your phone at this time or any time. If at any point your question is answered, you may remove yourself from the queue by pressing 11 again. Questions will be taken in the order they are received.

Operator

Those following the presentation via the webcast may post their questions on the platform. Please hold while we poll for questions. Our first question comes from the line of Thomas Fitzgerald with TD Cowen. Your line is now open.

Thomas Fitzgerald
VP - Equity Research at TD Cowen

Hi. Congrats on the nice results and thanks so much for the time. I'm just wondering if you could maybe unpack just kind of how you're thinking about pricing scenarios for and like RASM scenarios for the second half of the year a little bit more.

Holger Blankenstein
EVP - Airline Commercial & Operations at Volaris

Good morning, Tom. This is Holger. So in the first half, we did see some softness in line with the broader industry trends. But I would say starting mid quarter of the second quarter, we see sequential improvements with stabilization of demand and fare trends ahead of the peak summer season. The demand trends have been quite constructive And we're also seeing stronger potential for cross border traffic as volatility eases.

Holger Blankenstein
EVP - Airline Commercial & Operations at Volaris

We do expect that postponed VFR travel over the summer season will resume and that leads us to see second half demand tracking stronger and in line with historical seasonality. That is both true for volume and for fares. And we see better TRASM outcomes for the second half of the year.

Thomas Fitzgerald
VP - Equity Research at TD Cowen

Okay, great. That's really helpful. And then just as a follow-up, could you just help us on the in house loyalty program, ALPITUDE? Could you help us think about the timeline to ramp that up? And then how are you thinking about that in a non ticket revenue per passenger?

Thomas Fitzgerald
VP - Equity Research at TD Cowen

About how or how are you kind of how outside investors be forecasting that potential business? Thanks again for the time.

Holger Blankenstein
EVP - Airline Commercial & Operations at Volaris

Yes. So this is Holger again. So Altitude is really designed to reward repeat travel and drive loyalty for an expanding customer base outside of the VFR core traveler. It is expected to increase total revenue per passenger by driving purchases infrequent and customer retention. And we've seen quite positive impact.

Holger Blankenstein
EVP - Airline Commercial & Operations at Volaris

Customer reactions in the first couple of days of this program have been extremely positive. However, for this financial year 2025, we do not see any material financial impact. We are focusing on scaling the program and the enrollment in the program, and we should see more meaningful impact of this program in subsequent years.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Linenberg with Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open.

Shannon Doherty
Shannon Doherty
Equity Research Associate at Deutsche Bank

Hi, this is Shannon Daugherty on for Mike. Thank you for taking my question. I'm just curious about how demand trends in other markets besides The U. S. Have trended heading into the strong summer travel period, particularly on the international front, Central America and into South America? Thank you.

Holger Blankenstein
EVP - Airline Commercial & Operations at Volaris

Hi, this is Holger again. So we're seeing, as I mentioned, a recovery in the transborder market, but we're also seeing the same trends in the domestic market. I can tell you that customers are deciding more close in to book their travel for the summer. Customers do remain sensitive to macro and geopolitical headlines. But this close in booking has enabled us to yield up both in the domestic and international markets, while not affecting load factors.

Holger Blankenstein
EVP - Airline Commercial & Operations at Volaris

So overall, we're quite excited about the third quarter and the fourth quarter.

Shannon Doherty
Shannon Doherty
Equity Research Associate at Deutsche Bank

Great. Thanks. And just a quick follow-up. Hany, I think that you gave us the number of grounded aircraft in the second quarter and impacted engines from GTF. Can you just repeat that and what your expectation is for the full year?

Jaime Esteban Pous Fernández
CFO at Volaris

Yes, Shannon. We on the second quarter, we had 36 aircraft grounded. That number should be the same for the rest of the year. It's going to be between thirty five and thirty six. But it's important to mention everyone, everyone should be thinking about ASM growth. We have been controlling the situation and managing the situation over the past twenty four. So it's like the new normal, and we are well prepared to continue operating like that. But we see improvement going forward, and the situation should be improving gradually.

Shannon Doherty
Shannon Doherty
Equity Research Associate at Deutsche Bank

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Duane Pfennigwerth with Evercore ISI. Your line is now open.

Duane Pfennigwerth
Senior MD - Equity Research at Evercore

Hey guys. Good morning. Can you speak to transborder stability specifically and maybe just play back the history for us? When did you first see the pause or the pullback? And could you play back kind of trends through the balance of second quarter to today?

Holger Blankenstein
EVP - Airline Commercial & Operations at Volaris

Hi, Duane. This is Holger again. So yes, as I mentioned, mid quarter of the second quarter, we did see improvements of demand patterns and fair environment in the transborder market and the stabilization of demand ahead of the peak season in the summer. We believe we are convinced that VFR travel is resuming. People want to see their friends and family over the summer vacation period, And that the retraction of demand that we saw earlier on in the year was temporary, and that structural demand in the transborder market remains solid.

Duane Pfennigwerth
Senior MD - Equity Research at Evercore

And is that just to put a finer point of that, is that Mexico outbound, Mexico inbound, is fairly balanced? Are you seeing that stabilization across both?

Holger Blankenstein
EVP - Airline Commercial & Operations at Volaris

Duane, it's quite balanced, point of sale in The U. S. And point of sale in the Mexican market going towards The U. S.

Duane Pfennigwerth
Senior MD - Equity Research at Evercore

Okay. And then just with the revision in capacity for the full year and for the back half, can you talk about the relative revision for international capacity growth versus domestic capacity growth?

Holger Blankenstein
EVP - Airline Commercial & Operations at Volaris

Yeah, sure Duane. So we've slightly lowered our ASM growth plans for the full year from eight to 9% originally to now 7% ASM growth for the full year. And that really reflects both engine availability and our commitment to profitable growth. And if you break that down by geography, we're currently guiding to a 6% ASM growth for the third quarter, which is a lower growth in the domestic, roundabout 4% to 5%, and international in the mid teens for the third quarter. That's the breakdown.

Duane Pfennigwerth
Senior MD - Equity Research at Evercore

Okay. Thank you.

Holger Blankenstein
EVP - Airline Commercial & Operations at Volaris

Thanks.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Steven Trent with Citi. Your line is now open.

Steve Trent
Steve Trent
Managing Director at Citi

Yes. Good morning, and thanks very much for taking my question. Can you hear me okay, by the way?

Jaime Esteban Pous Fernández
CFO at Volaris

Yes, we can, Steve.

Steve Trent
Steve Trent
Managing Director at Citi

Oh, great. Thank you. Sorry, I was having some trouble with my phone. Just curious, thank you very much for the color on next year's capacity growth. When we think about the World Cup event coming up, Do you think that this is something that potentially could significantly move the needle for you guys?

Steve Trent
Steve Trent
Managing Director at Citi

Or is it just sort of too shorter period to really make a big difference in RASM, for example? Thank you.

Holger Blankenstein
EVP - Airline Commercial & Operations at Volaris

Steven, this is Holger again. So, let me tell you a little bit about the World Cup. We do have excellent connectivity with the host cities. Volaris operates in 10 of the 16 official host cities, and that covers more or less 62% of total matches. And if you include the Frontier codeshare that enables us to diversify our network together with Frontier, we reach 13 of the 16 host cities.

Holger Blankenstein
EVP - Airline Commercial & Operations at Volaris

So we do see this as a tailwind for next year for the summer season. And we will monitor and adjust capacity accordingly for that two months approximately period. And we might explore external lift if we need external lift for that two month period.

Steve Trent
Steve Trent
Managing Director at Citi

Great color, Holger. Appreciate that. And just a quick follow-up. I I know some of this political stuff is, like, impossible to predict, but, you know, with everything going on today, this sort of dispute between US DOT and Mexico, possibly competitors gonna have a joint business agreement canceled. You know, when you think about all of this stuff in the mix, is it conceivable that all else equal, that cancellation helps Volaris?

Steve Trent
Steve Trent
Managing Director at Citi

You know, and has it really made any difference in terms of how you guys operate your northbound flow? Or is it really not doesn't make a a difference at this juncture? Thank you.

Enrique Javier Beltranena Mejicano
President & CEO at Volaris

Steve, this is Enrique Beltranena. Let me tell you, we met with the Mexican government yesterday, and I remain confident that both governments will reach a logical and mutually beneficial agreement. To be honest with you, when you take a look to the points that are under discussion, most of them are kind of a delayed agenda that, given the changes in both governments, we couldn't, tackle at the end of the previous government. But we'll continue to provide updates as appropriate. And we have to be, I mean, being consistent with our approach in situations like this.

Enrique Javier Beltranena Mejicano
President & CEO at Volaris

I don't think we should speculate. It's not related to a category two downgrade. I mean, in practical terms, the order simply requires us to submit our schedules to The US authority. And I mean, in line with the way our government has managed its relationship with The US, we'll feel tremendously confident that the solution is going to be here in the next days.

Steve Trent
Steve Trent
Managing Director at Citi

Okay, super helpful. Thank you, Enrique.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Rogerio Arrigo with Bank of America. Your line is now open.

Rogerio Araujo
Rogerio Araujo
Director at Bank of America

Hi, gentlemen. Good morning and congratulations on the results. A couple here. One is on asset growth for 2026 and 2027. Any preliminary expectation you could share assuming the ungrounding of aircraft and the upcoming deliveries, maybe a range we could rely on?

Rogerio Araujo
Rogerio Araujo
Director at Bank of America

And also, with the current TRES level, how much margin would you expect Volaris to deliver if not for the grounding of part of the fleet? And in your view, would the net margin be on positive territory if we would consider a theoretical normalized operation? Thank you.

Holger Blankenstein
EVP - Airline Commercial & Operations at Volaris

I'm into that for the next year. What I do want to highlight is that flexibility for us remains a strategic advantage, especially as we look at the evolving macro and competitive landscapes. What we are currently targeting very preliminarily is an ASM growth in the mid single digits. And this strategic flexibility that I mentioned enables us to adjust capacity up or down around about three percentage points in either direction. And it helps us to respond very quickly to shifting demand trends both upward and downwards.

Holger Blankenstein
EVP - Airline Commercial & Operations at Volaris

What we do want to maintain and we want to emphasize next year is margin discipline despite all the macroeconomic uncertainty. And we want to reiterate that we are well positioned to grow in an emerging market.

Jaime Esteban Pous Fernández
CFO at Volaris

And Rogerio, this is Jaime. With respect to your second question regarding margins on a normalized situation without AOEs due to the engines, considering that we are targeting having a mid-thirty seven turn margin in a normal scenario with a normal productive versus nonproductive fleet, EBIT should be 2.5 points better. EBITDAR should right now has a benefit of around four points and the net margin will be three points percentage points higher than current conversion due to the roundings.

Rogerio Araujo
Rogerio Araujo
Director at Bank of America

Okay. That's very helpful. Thank you. I actually got the line cut, my team as well at the beginning. So maybe there was some kind of problem with your line.

Rogerio Araujo
Rogerio Araujo
Director at Bank of America

If you could please repeat range for asthma growth for '26 and '27, if you had to add to those.

Holger Blankenstein
EVP - Airline Commercial & Operations at Volaris

Yeah. So, I mentioned Rogerio that our capacity growth for next year, we're targeting ASM growth in the mid single digits, and with the flexibility of plus minus three percentage points to respond to shifting demand patterns.

Rogerio Araujo
Rogerio Araujo
Director at Bank of America

Very clear. Thank you so much.

Holger Blankenstein
EVP - Airline Commercial & Operations at Volaris

So, June, it's too early to say right now.

Rogerio Araujo
Rogerio Araujo
Director at Bank of America

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Pablo Monsievous with Barclays. Your line is now open.

Pablo Monsivais
Pablo Monsivais
Equity Research Analyst at Barclays

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. Just a little bit of a follow-up on the demand side. Besides immigration impact, have you seen any impact on the soft economic activity that we're seeing in Mexico, particularly in the domestic market? And also, if you can share some pricing dynamics within the domestic market.

Pablo Monsivais
Pablo Monsivais
Equity Research Analyst at Barclays

For example, I would love to know if you're seeing some price sensitivity on the leisure market relative to VFR in the domestic side. Just some more color will be welcome. Thank you.

Jaime Esteban Pous Fernández
CFO at Volaris

Your question could you repeat the initial question so that we can follow-up? Thank you.

Pablo Monsivais
Pablo Monsivais
Equity Research Analyst at Barclays

Yes. On the impact on demand of Mexico's soft economic activity.

Enrique Javier Beltranena Mejicano
President & CEO at Volaris

If I may, Pablo, I think we as mentioned in our remarks, while there are some macro signals to watch, there are some other macro signals that we need to watch too, okay? And let me give you three examples, which are very important. I mean, foreign direct investment remains strong. It reached EUR 21,000,000,000 in the first quarter, which is a 9% higher than the previous year in the same quarter. And this reflects the sustained long term confidence.

Enrique Javier Beltranena Mejicano
President & CEO at Volaris

The second example are retail sales in Mexico, which fell minus 2% year over year in Maine. The U. S. Posted a plus 4% year over year in June, and this highlighting strong demand across our markets. Remittances are recovering with June estimates of 13% year over year reinforcing household consumption after a temporary dip in May.

Enrique Javier Beltranena Mejicano
President & CEO at Volaris

I will pass it over to Holger so he explains the dynamics on domestic and international markets broken down by segments.

Holger Blankenstein
EVP - Airline Commercial & Operations at Volaris

Yeah. So this is Holger. There's two main trends in the domestic markets when we look at bookings. Number one, we do observe quite significant base fare elasticity for far out bookings for us, giving us the ability to stimulate demand further out. And then for closer in bookings, customers are deciding very much last minute to buy their summer vacations for the high season July and August.

Holger Blankenstein
EVP - Airline Commercial & Operations at Volaris

So we're seeing quite a robust close in bookings. Those would be the two trends in the domestic market. And that coupled with strong ancillary sales, we're now seeing ancillary products being in the range of 60% of total operating revenues and ancillary products and sales have been quite resilient to any demand shocks.

Enrique Javier Beltranena Mejicano
President & CEO at Volaris

Finally, Rogerio, this is Enrique again. I think it is important to say that in this kind of times, it's not only the economy what drives the performance of a company. I strongly think and feel very positive of the way Volaris is doing things, leaving the capacity basically that is installed in the market, leaving in pricing, leading in choices for our customers, leading in the way we perform from the operational perspective. And I think that's what's making the tremendous improvement in our numbers and why we feel very, very bullish or bullish for the future.

Pablo Monsivais
Pablo Monsivais
Equity Research Analyst at Barclays

Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Guilherme Mendez with JPMorgan. Your line is now open.

Guilherme Mendes
Guilherme Mendes
ED - Equity Research Analyst at JP Morgan

Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for taking my question. First one is a follow-up on the booking curve. I guess it's clear that passengers are buying tickets closer to the actual flight date. But Holger, when you compare to the first quarter, are we already starting to see an improvement on the booking curve, on the actual visibility on the booking curve or not necessarily?

Guilherme Mendes
Guilherme Mendes
ED - Equity Research Analyst at JP Morgan

The second point is on the overall competitive environment, if you mind sharing your views on how competition is behaving and the overall industry rationality? Thank you so much.

Holger Blankenstein
EVP - Airline Commercial & Operations at Volaris

Okay. So this is Holger. So yes, we did we do see an improvement versus the first half of the year, especially the first quarter. Starting in mid second quarter, we see a stabilization of demand patterns both in the international and the domestic market. And demand for the second half of the year is tracking stronger.

Holger Blankenstein
EVP - Airline Commercial & Operations at Volaris

Remember that the second half of the year is seasonality adjusted always stronger than the first half of the year. So we do see a more positive outlook for the second half of the year. In terms of competition and capacity, it is encouraging to see that industry wide capacity in both international and domestic market is adjusting with demand. The capacity environment in the domestic market has been quite rational. I do want to highlight that Volaris was the first carrier to make significant capacity reductions focusing on cash positive flying and EBIT positive flights.

Holger Blankenstein
EVP - Airline Commercial & Operations at Volaris

And we see that the industry has also adjusted their capacity downwards to bring capacity growth more in line with demand patterns that we're currently seeing.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ebrahim Puente Salinas with Banco Santander Mexico. Your line is now open.

Abraham Fuentes Salinas
Equity Research Analyst at Santander

Yes, thank you. Hi, good morning. Could you give us more color about your fuel hedging strategy, please?

Jaime Esteban Pous Fernández
CFO at Volaris

Of course, this is Jaime. We have some hedgeings for the month of July and August.

Jaime Esteban Pous Fernández
CFO at Volaris

We are hedging 40% of the consumption at a strike price of $2.15 per gallon.

Abraham Fuentes Salinas
Equity Research Analyst at Santander

Okay. Perfect. Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jens Spies with Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.

Jens Spiess
Jens Spiess
Vice President at Morgan Stanley

Yes. Hello, everybody. Thank you for taking my question. I have three actually, if I may. The first one is, is there any potential capacity easing at the Mexico City Airport?

Jens Spiess
Jens Spiess
Vice President at Morgan Stanley

What would be the implications for you? I mean, I guess, obviously, that would be positive, but in what magnitude? Secondly, just to delve deeper into the three percentage point in either direction of capacity flexibility, that's for 2025, right? So basically, in the second half of this year, Just to be clear, I understood it correctly. And lastly, taking into account your new capacity guidance, what are you assuming for the rest of the year in terms of redeliveries and deliveries? Thank you.

Enrique Javier Beltranena Mejicano
President & CEO at Volaris

This is Enrique Beltranena. So in respect to your first question related to slot capacity at Mexico City, I think what happened during the last quarter where we were able to raise one operation more on a per hour basis in Mexico City, I don't see any further improvements in the next year and a half. There's one possibility which will take about a year and a half to two years to be constructed, which is a faster runway for lending and being able to pull out much faster from the active road. But that's going to take about a year and a half and two years. And it's a well studied proposition as of now, still not under execution.

Enrique Javier Beltranena Mejicano
President & CEO at Volaris

Speaking about the rest of the things, I will allow Jaime to give you the responses that you requested.

Jaime Esteban Pous Fernández
CFO at Volaris

Hi, James. How are you? This is Jaime. First one, on capacity and redeliveries and deliveries of new planes. We're going to be redelivering three aircrafts during the second half of the year, and we are going to be receiving eight new aircrafts in the second half.

Jaime Esteban Pous Fernández
CFO at Volaris

But again, remember, think about ASM growth. We already provided the guidance of the ASM growth for the second half. And as Holger mentioned in terms of the flexibility on capacity, that flexibility, the year 2025, the guidance includes what we feel comfortable in order to deliver the guidance that we provided. And for 2026, that will be in the mid single digit with the potential to go three or three percentage points below depending on how we see capacity.

Holger Blankenstein
EVP - Airline Commercial & Operations at Volaris

So we were referring to 2026, Jens.

Jens Spiess
Jens Spiess
Vice President at Morgan Stanley

Oh, perfect. All right. Perfect. All right. Thank you. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our last question is from Alberto Valerio with UBS. Your line is now open.

Alberto Valerio
Alberto Valerio
Executive Director at UBS Group

Hi.

Alberto Valerio
Alberto Valerio
Executive Director at UBS Group

Thank you for the opportunity, Hickey, Jaime and Holger. I have two on my side. The first one about your flexibility within the Valaris network. How you guys are between domestic and international? Look like domestic, it's a little more stronger than the international for this year due to the geopolitical conflict and so forth.

Alberto Valerio
Alberto Valerio
Executive Director at UBS Group

How how flexible are you guys to to change the routes? And my second one is about the initial remarks of Holger in the beginning of the call about the unbunding the tariffs of the airport. Have you seen any change in the behavior of the consumer in terms of the airport if they are preferring to go to one airport and avoid another one? Just a curiosity. Thank you very much and congrats on the results.

Holger Blankenstein
EVP - Airline Commercial & Operations at Volaris

Hello, this is Holger again. So regarding your first question, I think what distinguishes us from our competition is the flexibility that we have in deploying capacity. Our guiding principle is cash positive flying and profitable flying. And we will allocate capacity wherever that is the maximum in any market. So it could be in The US or in the domestic market.

Holger Blankenstein
EVP - Airline Commercial & Operations at Volaris

And we look at that on a route by route basis. Regarding the second part of your question, we recently unbundled the airport fees, which are very significant in Mexico and quite expensive and can exceed the base fare in many instances from the actual ticket price. And we give the customer the choice to pay whenever they want either at the time of booking or anytime between booking and check-in. And that really enables us to show the really, really low base fares that we have directly to the customers, and enables customers to buy those low base fares well in advance. And with that, we stimulate demand through low base fares that are actually visible on our website.

Holger Blankenstein
EVP - Airline Commercial & Operations at Volaris

And we have seen a good uptake of customers that prefer to pay the airport fees after the purchase. Between 2530% of our customers choose to pay the airport fees before check-in and not at the time of purchase. So it's been a net positive for us and the customer. Thank you very much.

Operator

And excuse me, this concludes today's question and answer session. I would like to invite management to proceed with his closing remarks. Please go ahead, sir.

Enrique Javier Beltranena Mejicano
President & CEO at Volaris

I'd like to close the call with a very important remark. I think that we are in an environment where economies and the geopolitical issues are affecting the business models in the aviation market. But there's something I want to strengthen in a very important way. We are in control of this company. We are very positive.

Enrique Javier Beltranena Mejicano
President & CEO at Volaris

We are controlling capacity. We are controlling pricing. We are controlling our execution in terms of operations and that is marking a change in what we are perceiving towards the future. It is important to say that we remain positive, that we see stabilization of demand, that we have a very resilient business model and disciplined focus on what we can control. Finally, I would like to thank you very much, our family of ambassadors, our Board of Directors, our investors, our bankers and our lessors and suppliers for their support.

Enrique Javier Beltranena Mejicano
President & CEO at Volaris

I look forward to speaking to you all on the third quarter call, and thank you very much for all the support you provide to this company.

Operator

This concludes the Valerus conference call for today. Thank you very much for your participation, and have a nice day.

Analysts
    • Ricardo Martínez
      Director - IR at Volaris
    • Enrique Javier Beltranena Mejicano
      President & CEO at Volaris
    • Holger Blankenstein
      EVP - Airline Commercial & Operations at Volaris
    • Jaime Esteban Pous Fernández
      CFO at Volaris
    • Thomas Fitzgerald
      VP - Equity Research at TD Cowen
    • Shannon Doherty
      Equity Research Associate at Deutsche Bank
    • Duane Pfennigwerth
      Senior MD - Equity Research at Evercore
    • Steve Trent
      Managing Director at Citi
    • Rogerio Araujo
      Director at Bank of America
    • Pablo Monsivais
      Equity Research Analyst at Barclays
    • Guilherme Mendes
      ED - Equity Research Analyst at JP Morgan
    • Abraham Fuentes Salinas
      Equity Research Analyst at Santander
    • Jens Spiess
      Vice President at Morgan Stanley
    • Alberto Valerio
      Executive Director at UBS Group
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