Aercap Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
July 30, 2025

Key Takeaways

  • Positive Sentiment: We reported record GAAP net income of $1.3 billion and EPS of $7.09 in Q2, with adjusted EPS of $2.83 and raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to about $11.60.
  • Positive Sentiment: Aircraft demand remained robust with 99% utilization and a 97% lease extension rate, and renewal rates were higher than prior leases despite older asset ages.
  • Positive Sentiment: Widebody availability is exceptionally low, with only two aircraft open for lease out of more than 250 until 2027, highlighting sustained global demand.
  • Positive Sentiment: We strengthened our financial position with $22 billion in total liquidity, reduced leverage to 2.2×, and repurchased over $1 billion of shares year-to-date, with $800 million still available.
  • Positive Sentiment: Engine leasing soared, delivering 84 new LEAP engines year-to-date, acquiring 31 in Q2, and forming an MRO partnership with Air France-KLM to expand spare engine support.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Aercap Q2 2025
00:00 / 00:00

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Operator

Day, and welcome to AerCap's Q2 twenty twenty five Financial Results. Today's conference is being recorded and a transcript will be available following the call on the company's website. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Joseph McGinley, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Joseph Mcginley
Head - IR at AerCap

Thank you, operator, and hello, everyone. Welcome to our second quarter twenty twenty five conference call. With me today is our Chief Executive Officer, Angus Kelly and our Chief Financial Officer, Pete Euhas. Before we begin today's call, I would like to remind you that some statements made during this conference call, which are not historical facts, may be forward looking statements. Forward looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements.

Joseph Mcginley
Head - IR at AerCap

AerCap undertakes no obligation other than that imposed by law to publicly update or revise any forward looking statements to reflect future events, information, or circumstances that arise after this call. Further information concerning issues that could materially affect performance can be found in AerCap's earnings release dated 08/30/2025. A copy of the earnings release and conference call presentation are available on our website at aircap.com. This call is open to the public and is being webcast simultaneously at aircap.com and will be archived for replay. We will shortly run through our earnings presentation and will allow time at the end for Q and A.

Joseph Mcginley
Head - IR at AerCap

As a reminder, I would ask that analysts limit themselves to one question and one follow-up. I will now turn the call over to Angus Kelly.

Aengus Kelly
CEO & Executive Director at AerCap

Thank you for joining us for our second quarter twenty twenty five earnings call. We are pleased to report a record quarter of earnings generating GAAP net income of $1,300,000,000 and earnings per share of $7.09. This reflects strong execution and demand for our assets as well as the successful outcome in our contingent and possessed insurance case in the commercial court in London in June. Adjusted net income was $502,000,000, and adjusted EPS was $2.83. Given these strong results and our improved outlook for the year ahead, we have increased our twenty twenty five full year adjusted EPS guidance again today.

Aengus Kelly
CEO & Executive Director at AerCap

Global passenger traffic continues to grow, led by APAC and The Middle East. In The US, domestic traffic declined after slower growth in April, but international traffic performed better, demonstrating the resilience of long haul demand. This phenomenon of international growth outpacing domestic growth is a trend that we've seen throughout the year and around the world. On the aircraft side, we continue to see strong demand from our customers despite the uncertainty regarding tariffs and trade. This is evidenced by our 99% utilization rate and 97% extension rate in the second quarter.

Aengus Kelly
CEO & Executive Director at AerCap

These high levels of utilization and extension rates have persisted over recent years, resulting in more options on placements and stronger returns overall. In fact, across the 30 extensions we completed in q two, the new leases signed were on average higher than their previous lease despite being older aircraft now. The resilience of international travel means the broad based demand for wide bodies continues. This was shown by the lease agreements we signed for triple sevens and a three thirty seals with carriers in Asia, The Middle East, and Europe in q two. Furthermore, as a result of the deals we have signed or have in the pipeline in q three, we have only two wide bodies available for lease between now and the 2027 out of a fleet of more than 250 wide bodies.

Aengus Kelly
CEO & Executive Director at AerCap

On the narrow body side, we see similar trends. We signed lease agreements with 12 different carriers in the quarter, including six a three twenty neo placements from our order book with a carrier in The Middle East. We extended 26 used aircraft with an average age of 16 years that are on lease to carriers predominantly in Europe and Asia. There has been a lot of focus on the OEM supply shortages over the last number of years, which, of course, have been helpful for lease rates and sales pricing. These delays have also resulted in fewer opportunities for organic growth via sale leasebacks.

Aengus Kelly
CEO & Executive Director at AerCap

That dynamic is beginning to change, and deals are beginning to present themselves. Of course, they have to meet our return targets, but I am confident that as OEMs ramp up deliveries over the next few years, AerCap will be well positioned to take advantage of these opportunities given the combined strength of our balance sheet and customer relationships. Spare engine demand remains particularly robust today, given the challenges with new technology aircraft in particular, keeping utilization levels high. Our engine platforms are focused on supporting their OEM airline and MRO customers. Spare engine support is a key part of AerCap's overall proposition to customers, And our portfolio of over 1,200 spare engines, 90% of which are new technology, mean AerCap is well positioned to do so.

Aengus Kelly
CEO & Executive Director at AerCap

On new deliveries, our organic growth strategy continues with the purchase of 31 new LEAP engines across the SES and AerCap platforms, taking total deliveries for the year to date to 84. A further 46 LEAPS are expected to deliver through the end of this year. We also delivered 36 engines to various airline customers in q two alone under commercial lease agreements. So overall, activity remains robust across the platforms. Finally, we are set to expand our MRO support capability with an engine leasing partnership with Air France KLM announced at the Paris Air Show, which we hope to finalize later in the year.

Aengus Kelly
CEO & Executive Director at AerCap

This mutually beneficial partnership provides spare engine support for customers of Air France KLM's MRO operation and quicker MRO slots for our own fleets. Turning to milestone. Overall, the helicopter landscape remains reasonably robust. Global fleet utilization remains high, aided by continued OEM production discipline and supply chain constraints, which like the aircraft industry are likely to persist for some time. From an aircraft fleet perspective, we continue to adopt a balanced portfolio management strategy, investing in new technology helicopters at accretive returns while divesting of midlife and out of production types.

Aengus Kelly
CEO & Executive Director at AerCap

During the quarter, we continue to see a high percentage of helicopters of varying types extending with their existing operators. This included deals with operators in The US, South Korea, India, and The UK. So in summary, this was another great quarter for AerCap with earnings and cash flows remaining strong throughout the business. We continue to deploy your capital effectively with the purchase of approximately $3,000,000,000 of new equipment and the repurchase of over $1,000,000,000 of stock year to date. In addition, we expect to spend another $3,000,000,000 in new equipment through the 2025 and have a further 800,000,000 in share repurchase authorizations outstanding.

Aengus Kelly
CEO & Executive Director at AerCap

Going forward, this means that AerCap is in an exceptional position to provide unique support to our customers and strong returns to our shareholders. With that, I'll now hand the call over to Pete to review the financials and the outlook for 2025.

Peter Juhas
CFO at AerCap

Thanks, Gus. Good morning, everyone. Our GAAP net income for the second quarter was a record $1,259,000,000 or $7.09 per share. This included net recoveries related to the Ukraine conflict of $973,000,000 or $5.48 per share. This reflects the award we received and the favorable decision by the London Commercial Court in June.

Peter Juhas
CFO at AerCap

The impact of purchase accounting adjustments was $82,000,000 for the quarter or $0.46 per share. The net tax effect of both of these items was $134,000,000 or $0.75 per share. As a result, our adjusted net income for the second quarter was $5.00 $2,000,000 or $2.83 per share. Besides the insurance award, there were two main items that affected our results for the second quarter. First, we had a tax provision release of $41,000,000 And second, our SG and A expense was higher than normal due to higher stock based compensation expense, which was driven by some upfront recognition of expenses.

Peter Juhas
CFO at AerCap

Going forward, we expect stock based compensation expense to return to a more normal run rate of around $30,000,000 a quarter. Turning to sales, our net gain on sale of assets was $57,000,000 We sold 18 of our owned assets during the quarter for total sales revenue of $374,000,000 That resulted in an unlevered gain on sale margin of 18%, which is equivalent to a multiple of 1.7 times book value. The sales volume was a little lower than normal during the second quarter, mainly due to timing of deals closing. As of June 30, we had $470,000,000 of assets held for sale, and I currently expect our sales to be around $2,500,000,000 for the full year. Our liquidity position continues to be very strong.

Peter Juhas
CFO at AerCap

As of June 30, our total sources of liquidity were approximately $22,000,000,000 That includes 2,700,000,000 of cash and $12,000,000,000 of revolvers and other committed facilities as well as expected sales and operating cash flow. Our sources to uses coverage ratio at the end of the quarter was 1.9 times, which amounts to excess cash coverage of around 10,000,000,000 Our leverage ratio was 2.2 to one, down from 2.4 to one last quarter. That decrease was primarily driven by the favorable insurance judgment that we received in June. Our operating cash flow was approximately $1,300,000,000 for the second quarter and our average cost of debt remained the same at 4.1%. We bought back 4,700,000.0 shares during the quarter for a total of $445,000,000 That takes us to over $1,000,000,000 of share repurchases so far this year.

Peter Juhas
CFO at AerCap

We currently have around $800,000,000 of available capacity remaining in our existing share repurchase authorization. Turning now to guidance. In February, we projected adjusted earnings per share of $8.5 to $9.5 for the full year 2025, not including any gains on sale. On our last earnings call, given the strong performance in the first quarter, we raised our guidance to the top half of that range. As Gus mentioned, today we're raising our full year 2025 adjusted EPS guidance to approximately $11.6 That includes the $1.1 of gains on sale that we had in the first half of the year, but it doesn't include any gains on sale for the second half of the year.

Peter Juhas
CFO at AerCap

In the first half, the outperformance relative to guidance was driven by higher lease revenue, including net maintenance contribution, and we would expect lease revenue to continue to be strong in the second half of the year. We also had some benefits from higher other income in the first quarter as well as the tax release in the second quarter. So that results in full year guidance of $11.6 This reflects our strong performance year to date and our positive outlook for the rest of the year. So in closing, we're coming off another strong quarter for AerCap in terms of earnings and EPS and, of course, the favorable decision in our insurance case. We continue to be in a position of strength with a strong balance sheet, low leverage and strong liquidity.

Peter Juhas
CFO at AerCap

We're confident about the outlook for the business as you can see from our increase in full year guidance and our repurchases of over $1,000,000,000 of stock so far this year. And with that, operator, we'll open up the call for Q and A.

Operator

Thank Q

Terry Ma
Terry Ma
Senior Equity Research Analyst at Barclays

Hi, thank you. Good morning. Maybe just to start off with the partnership with Air France KLM. Is there any way you can maybe size that opportunity and talk about how much excess capital you can deploy into that? We kind of take a step back, maybe just update us on how you're thinking about capital allocation.

Terry Ma
Terry Ma
Senior Equity Research Analyst at Barclays

You guys are continue to be underlevered relative to target. So maybe just talk about deployment of that capital overall.

Aengus Kelly
CEO & Executive Director at AerCap

Sure. Let me start with the, Air France KLM joint venture. This opens up another broad customer base to our engine business. And the great advantage for Air France KLM as they move into the LEAP overhaul business is that they have a partner now that has experience of moving hundreds of LEAP engines around the world on time and on spec for the existing OEM CFM. So that's very important.

Aengus Kelly
CEO & Executive Director at AerCap

As regards to how big it will grow, we'll have to see over time. Initially, it'll be a small amount. But like all these, investments, these are long term in nature like the business is and something we're looking to regarding the long term. I'll let Pete answer the question on the capital allocation.

Peter Juhas
CFO at AerCap

Sure. Thanks, Gus. So, Terry, in terms of capital allocation, so far this year, we've deployed a little over a billion dollars for share buybacks. We've also bought $3,000,000,000 of aircraft, as Gus mentioned, and we've got another $3,000,000,000 of buybacks, of of of CapEx later this year as well as the remaining 800,000,000 in our program. And as we look at it, look.

Peter Juhas
CFO at AerCap

You know, we always look at all different alternatives for deploying excess capital. We are seeing some what we think will be attractive opportunities with some of the airlines now Now that you're starting to see more aircraft delivering, in their order books, we think there will be opportunities there. We also think that there will be opportunities on the engine side to deploy more capital there. And, of course, share repurchases continue to be attractive. So I'd say those will be the main avenues as we look out today in terms of deployment of excess capital for the remainder of the year.

Terry Ma
Terry Ma
Senior Equity Research Analyst at Barclays

Got it. That's helpful. And then I guess as a follow-up, I think leasing expenses ex the maintenance amortization expense was, you know, in the $60,000,000 range this quarter. It's been kind of below average last two quarters. Kinda what's the outlook for that for the remainder of the year? Thank you.

Peter Juhas
CFO at AerCap

Yes. So leasing expenses have been lower. They were also lower in the first quarter. They came down a bit more in the second quarter. Mainly, that has been due to the high level of extensions and fewer transitions that we've been seeing.

Peter Juhas
CFO at AerCap

Yeah. As you saw, our extension rate in the quarter was 97%. So that's, that's almost a record high. And what the impact of that is, it's reducing the amount of leasing expenses that we have. So I think that will continue to trend at lower levels than we had originally expected because of the those factors.

Operator

Any further questions, Mr. Ma?

Terry Ma
Terry Ma
Senior Equity Research Analyst at Barclays

No, that's it. Thank you.

Peter Juhas
CFO at AerCap

Great. Thank you.

Operator

We will take our next question from Moshe Orenbuch with TD Cowen.

Moshe Orenbuch
MD & Senior Analyst at TD Cowen

Great. Thanks. I apologize because I missed a a bit at the beginning, but the increase in your h your second half or full year kind of CapEx, does that already encompass your expectation for potentially higher sale leasebacks, or is that something that would be, you know, kind of additive to it?

Peter Juhas
CFO at AerCap

No. That that 3,000,000,000 that we mentioned, Moshe, is just, what we've contracted to date. So that's just from the order book. Okay. But any so any incremental things that we do would be additive to that number.

Moshe Orenbuch
MD & Senior Analyst at TD Cowen

Got it. And, you know, I guess I mean, is you know, how how should we sort of think about the, you know, the the potential for that number to be higher than 3,000,000,000 versus, you know, kind of lower at this stage? Like, you know, the kind of the upside downside, if you will.

Peter Juhas
CFO at AerCap

Well, we're starting to see the OEMs pick up their pace of deliveries. I mean, you saw Boeing's results the other day. So I think that we are seeing production rates increase, albeit off a relatively low base. So I think as a starting point, that 6,000,000,000 for the year is a reasonable one for us just on in terms of our order book and what's currently contracted. And then things can be additive, from there.

Peter Juhas
CFO at AerCap

And and one of the benefits that you get if you're doing sale leasebacks or, in particular, engine deals is that allows for more rapid deployment of capital than, you know, say, if you were doing an OEM order where you're gonna get those a new order, you're gonna get those aircraft in the 20 thirties. So that is one of the benefits of those two. How much will it be this year? Hard to know, but, you know, we do have excess capital available, and and we would like to deploy it.

Moshe Orenbuch
MD & Senior Analyst at TD Cowen

Got it. And maybe since you did bring up the engine business, is, you know, could you talk about how much you know, what's the possible amount of capital you could deploy in that, you know, over you know, I mean, you can kinda pick the period to to discuss and just, you know, talk about how, you know, important that could be for your account. Thanks.

Peter Juhas
CFO at AerCap

Well, we did $5,000,000,000 of engine orders last year, and that's and $10,000,000,000 since we did the GKS acquisition. So that gives you some idea of how of how large these can be. And as I said, in contrast to just an order for on, of aircraft from an order book, engines can deliver, in some cases, weeks after we've concluded that contract. Because if you think about it, these are spare engines that are immediately needed. That's why they are that's why, that's why we are doing those purchases so they can be immediately put into the spare engine pools for the OEMs.

Peter Juhas
CFO at AerCap

And so that can lead to rapid deployment of capital. So I it it can be quite large.

Moshe Orenbuch
MD & Senior Analyst at TD Cowen

Yeah. Thanks very much.

Peter Juhas
CFO at AerCap

Sure.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Catherine O'Brien with Goldman Sachs.

Catherine O'Brien
Catherine O'Brien
Vice President at Goldman Sachs

Hey. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for the time. Maybe just a follow-up the capital allocation question. You know, leverage is running well below target.

Catherine O'Brien
Catherine O'Brien
Vice President at Goldman Sachs

Sounds like you have potentially new opportunities in the sale leaseback market. But how do you think about the relative attractiveness of of those sale leaseback opportunities versus maybe deploying more capital engines versus buying back your cap shares. Is is the lack of a re up on the buyback just that you still have $800,000,000 left? Just just would love to know kind of how you're thinking about ranking those opportunities.

Peter Juhas
CFO at AerCap

Yeah. That's the rationale, Katie, for in terms of the buyback at the moment. We have a little over $800,000,000 remaining, and so we'd like to utilize that first. So that's, that's why we're not announcing a new authorization at the moment. But as you note, our leverage ratio is low.

Peter Juhas
CFO at AerCap

It's 2.2 to one. A lot of that is because the we got the judgment in June on our insurance case, and those funds just came in at the June and early July. So that decreased the leverage ratio by about 20 basis points from 2.4 to 2.2. So when we think about the opportunities, for sure, buybacks are one of them, but we also think between some of these sale leaseback opportunities with airlines, some of the engine deals that that we're considering, I think all of those are are in the mix. You know, we'll look at each individually, but I think some combination of those things is the most likely deployment of excess capital this year.

Peter Juhas
CFO at AerCap

I think beyond that, you know, things like M and A, and new orders of aircraft are prob probably behind that at the moment.

Catherine O'Brien
Catherine O'Brien
Vice President at Goldman Sachs

Okay. Great. Thanks. And maybe just for my follow-up, an 18% gain on sale is nearly double your historical average, so it's definitely not trying to poke at that. But there's been a lot of focus from investors across the aviation industry on what Boeing, you know, starting to get their act together in production could mean.

Catherine O'Brien
Catherine O'Brien
Vice President at Goldman Sachs

And and that 18% is a little bit lower than the last couple of quarters. Is there any difference in the types or ages of assets you'd call it this quarter versus the last two or three? Just trying to see if there's any read through to demand for aircraft in secondary market or if this is just really, like, a normal fluctuation based on the types of assets you sold. Thanks.

Peter Juhas
CFO at AerCap

Sure. I really think it's a normal

Aengus Kelly
CEO & Executive Director at AerCap

Katie Katie, I was just gonna say there that this is just a normal fluctuation. There's nothing more to see there. In terms of demand, it's still extremely strong. Look. The real evidence of that is the extension rates.

Aengus Kelly
CEO & Executive Director at AerCap

You can see that we extended an all time high of 99% of the aircraft. That's what speaks to the strength in the market. You know, whether Boeing are making 34, 36, or 38 airplanes is not going to affect that demand.

Catherine O'Brien
Catherine O'Brien
Vice President at Goldman Sachs

Okay. Great. I thought that would answer. Thank you.

Operator

We will take our next question from from Ron Epstein with Bank of America.

Ron Epstein
Ron Epstein
Senior Research Analyst - Aerospace & Defense Electronics at Bank of America

Hey. Yeah. Good good good morning, guys. Maybe the first one for for Pete. You know, when we met up at the Air Show, you know, we had a pretty in-depth discussion with you on tariffs.

Ron Epstein
Ron Epstein
Senior Research Analyst - Aerospace & Defense Electronics at Bank of America

Given how things have sort of moved around, how how are you thinking about it now, and, you know, how is the tariff environment kind of impacting the business?

Peter Juhas
CFO at AerCap

Sure. Thanks, Ron. So we've seen a very limited impact of tariffs on our business so far. As you know, we've been strong advocates for the zero for zero tariff regime around the world. We were very glad to see that, to see the announcements between The US and The UK, and then The US and the EU that came over the weekend.

Peter Juhas
CFO at AerCap

I believe those remove a lot of the uncertainty around tariffs for aviation, so that's very helpful. And what we'd like to see, I think those are a good precedent for other deals that could be done around the world. So that's very helpful. Look. All that being said, all this has moved very quickly.

Peter Juhas
CFO at AerCap

But, if those can serve as a precedent and we get back to the zero for zero regime, I think that's best for aviation. It's helpful for the industry overall. And as I said so we've seen very minimal impact, and we hope that, that a lot of this is behind us now.

Ron Epstein
Ron Epstein
Senior Research Analyst - Aerospace & Defense Electronics at Bank of America

Got it. Got it. And then maybe just a a broader question. When you think about the return profile on an engine versus the return profile on an airframe, kind of at a high level, how do you guys think about that? I mean, what's what what's better for you all? An airframe or an engine?

Aengus Kelly
CEO & Executive Director at AerCap

Ron, I wouldn't say one is better than the other. There's different aspects to them. The engine initially has a lower lease yield, because no one is paying for seats, lavatories, all that bio furnished equipment. However, over time, the aircraft depreciates faster than the engine because you have to depreciate those components that are specific to the first lessee. So, yeah, you get a higher lease rate at the start on aircraft, but you have a shallower depreciation curve over the long term on the engines.

Aengus Kelly
CEO & Executive Director at AerCap

The key point of investing in anything in aviation is that you are buying the right assets for its remaining economic life, be that five years or twenty five years, and you're buying it at the right price, and you know the value of the assets when you buy it. And AerCap has demonstrated that in this industry, for twenty plus years that no one has that judgment better than this company.

Ron Epstein
Ron Epstein
Senior Research Analyst - Aerospace & Defense Electronics at Bank of America

Got it. Got it. And then maybe just one last one. You know, with demand for wide bodies clearly picking up, do do you think you need to, you know, how I say, you know, build out your backlog on on wide body orders, your your skyline more so?

Aengus Kelly
CEO & Executive Director at AerCap

Definitely not. I will build my skyline when it makes money for my shareholders. I have no interest in buying any asset at all if it doesn't make adequate return for shareholders in AerCap. I still believe the cheapest wide bodies in the world are available on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker Alpha Echo Romeo.

Ron Epstein
Ron Epstein
Senior Research Analyst - Aerospace & Defense Electronics at Bank of America

Okay. Alright. Thanks, guys. Yeah. Have a good one. Yep.

Operator

We will take our next question from Jamie Baker with JPMorgan.

James Baker
James Baker
Managing Director & Investment Specialist at JP Morgan

Oh, thanks for the time. So, Gus, do you think we are at peak returns? And if not, when do we get there? And the reason we're asking is, you know, lease rates obviously haven't, you know, fully kept up with the cost of debt. And we're starting to wonder whether competing capital may be one of the reasons, you know, could less disciplined capital be chasing deals lower.

James Baker
James Baker
Managing Director & Investment Specialist at JP Morgan

And look, we're just thinking out loud, you know, but, you know, some of the recent deals from United, you know, that was business away from AerCap. So we're we're just trying to we're just wondering what the read through might be.

Aengus Kelly
CEO & Executive Director at AerCap

Sure, Jamie. I mean, look, can't speak to anyone else in the industry, but I'll I'll hand it over to Pete in a second. But you can see over a very long period of time, that we are AerCap is able to pass on, the cost of interest, and we've done that for this, this year as well, as you'll see. Interest expense is up 5%, and the lease revenue matches it. But, you know, look, from my perspective, I've always said to you that we target that return of 8% to 10% over the the treasury rate, and that's what this company has always returned in in every in all markets.

Aengus Kelly
CEO & Executive Director at AerCap

That's what it's averaged in that in in in that zone exactly. So, you know, this business is extremely stable if you're good at it and you're in it for the long term. If you're one of the tourists, then, you know, yeah, you can have, you can put money to work. Whether you'll make any, whether you'll be successful at it or not is another matter. We've ex exhibited great restraint, when it comes to deploying capital.

Aengus Kelly
CEO & Executive Director at AerCap

And from our perspective, how we allocate capital, you know, be it buying our own shares, which as I just said to Ron, I believe the cheapest aircraft are available every day on the New York Stock Exchange under under our ticker. And, you know, you won't see us. You're right. Yes. Of course, some deals trade away from us, but that's where we exercise discipline.

Aengus Kelly
CEO & Executive Director at AerCap

And, you know, you've seen us for twenty years, through all markets exercise that discipline, and we'll continue to do that.

James Baker
James Baker
Managing Director & Investment Specialist at JP Morgan

Okay. I appreciate that. And then maybe for Pete, you know, you're nicely below the, you know, 2.7 debt to equity target. You touched on that in your prepared remarks. So what what's more likely from here?

James Baker
James Baker
Managing Director & Investment Specialist at JP Morgan

Running it back up to the target or maybe tightening that target and pushing for low a ratings? Thanks in advance.

Peter Juhas
CFO at AerCap

Yeah, Jamie. So I think that we will run it closer to the target. I'd expect it to get up to, you know, get closer to 2.7, whether that's two four, two five, somewhere in that ballpark. We're not intending to lower that target because, fundamentally, I think we're in a good place for the rating agencies now. Look.

Peter Juhas
CFO at AerCap

If we can get to A minus ratings, that would be great. But, ultimately, we're focused on what's the what is the most beneficial for our shareholders? How can we how can we return, create the highest returns for our shareholders? And so if you think about do we would we need to do that by lowering the leverage target over, you know, a long period and putting in place higher liquidity and other things like that. If there's a cost to that, obviously, I think where we are today, having come up from low, triple b minus ratings a couple years ago to where we are today, triple b plus across the board, That's a very strong performance.

Peter Juhas
CFO at AerCap

Sure. We'd like to go higher, but I think, fundamentally, there are a lot of opportunities for us to deploy capital, and and we'll look to do that.

James Baker
James Baker
Managing Director & Investment Specialist at JP Morgan

Okay. Thanks to you both. Appreciate it.

Peter Juhas
CFO at AerCap

Sure.

Operator

We will take our next question from Christine Lewag with Morgan Stanley.

Kristine Liwag
Kristine Liwag
Executive Director at Morgan Stanley

Hey. Good morning, everyone. And maybe, Gus, following up on your comments on AerCap's success for the past twenty years, I mean, we've seen all the numbers. And at this point, I mean, you are the largest aircraft lessor in the entire world, so congratulations on on that success. But, you know, I guess, when we look for growth, and Wall Street's always looking for the incremental growth, As you continue to deliver that strong return and the business continues to delever and we look at your forward order book and purchase and leasebacks, it it kinda decelerates starting 2027.

Kristine Liwag
Kristine Liwag
Executive Director at Morgan Stanley

I mean, how do we think about the size of AerCap in the next five years or even I mean, twenty years maybe a little too far out, but maybe the next three to five years. How big could you be? And are you getting to the point on return that you're you're too big that getting that outsized, you know, eight to 10% consistently over the treasury rate may be getting harder? And if that's the case, you know, where do you see incremental growth?

Aengus Kelly
CEO & Executive Director at AerCap

Thanks, Christine. Well, look. From our perspective, this is a growing industry, aviation. Every twenty years, it doubles in size, and aircraft leasing is doubling within that itself. So it's continuing to grow every year.

Aengus Kelly
CEO & Executive Director at AerCap

So I'm not worried about growth over the long term. It always comes. And indeed, if you just look at the amount of, CapEx we contracted in 2024, it was 6,000,000,000 plus that we managed to contract that wasn't there at the beginning of the year. So I'm not concerned about where the order book is. I'd be extraordinarily concerned if I was ordering airplanes that were going to have a negative effect to my shareholders, and we followed the gap model of growth at any price.

Aengus Kelly
CEO & Executive Director at AerCap

That's something we'll never do. The objective of this company is to create value for our shareholders, and that means growing profitability. And that does not necessarily mean growing revenue. Of course, we have grown revenue tremendously. We've grown the balance sheet tremendously, but at the right times.

Aengus Kelly
CEO & Executive Director at AerCap

And, I'm very confident that given the growth industry, AerCap's position in the industry, the relationships we have, the influence we have, that profitable growth opportunities will come our way. And in any event, as I said earlier on in the call twice, I certainly believe that the best value aircraft in the world are available under the ticker alpha echo Romeo down on the NYSE.

Kristine Liwag
Kristine Liwag
Executive Director at Morgan Stanley

Thanks. Thanks, Gus. And maybe, Pete, as a follow-up, look. We have seen a modest compression in the annualized net spread, over the past few years as net in as interest expense has been ticking up. Are there we know, with the balance sheet continuing to improve and leverage going down, are there different ways in which you could further reduce cost of interest?

Kristine Liwag
Kristine Liwag
Executive Director at Morgan Stanley

And when would you expect the annualized net spread to start expanding again?

Peter Juhas
CFO at AerCap

Yeah. Thanks, Christine. So the net spread will be expanding. I'd expect it to to be going up from here kind of on a sequential level quarterly and then into the next few years as well. Because what we're seeing is the portfolio yield, the lease rate factor is going up.

Peter Juhas
CFO at AerCap

That's gonna continue to climb, and and so overall, net spread is going to increase. I would remind you, though, that net spread obviously isn't the whole story. There is a lot beyond net spread. We're not managing to that. We're managing to EPS.

Peter Juhas
CFO at AerCap

But I do think the profitability will increase going forward. And maybe just to to touch for a second on Jamie's question before in terms of whether we've reached peak profitability for the industry, I don't think so, in part because even the deals that we're doing today, there is a lag in terms of seeing the financial results come through for those. So even if you did reach peak profitability in terms of the market being great today, you're not gonna see the financial results of those really flow through for the next few until the next few years. So I think we've got a good tailwind on that. We've got a good tailwind in terms of COVID leases rolling off.

Peter Juhas
CFO at AerCap

That will take time, but it is a tailwind. So I think there are a number of things that that are positive for us as a company, going to the next few years.

Kristine Liwag
Kristine Liwag
Executive Director at Morgan Stanley

Great. Thank you very much, guys.

Peter Juhas
CFO at AerCap

Sure.

Operator

We will take our next question from Hillary Coconando with Deutsche Bank.

Hillary Cacanando
Hillary Cacanando
Director - Equity Research at Deutsche Bank

Hi. Thank you for taking my questions. I know you already wrote down your exposure to Azul late last year, but, you know, that was before they filed for bankruptcy. I was just wondering if there could be, you know, any other impact from bank Azul bankruptcy from your end?

Peter Juhas
CFO at AerCap

Thanks, Hillary. Yes. So so last year, you're right. We did take a provision against Azul. And as we look out today, so Azul is still in bankruptcy.

Peter Juhas
CFO at AerCap

They've been they've been making progress in their restructuring plan. We don't see any impact, compared to where we were. So I think, minimal impact this quarter from Azul, and we think we're fully provisioned there for how this restructuring should play out.

Hillary Cacanando
Hillary Cacanando
Director - Equity Research at Deutsche Bank

Okay. Thank you. Thank you for that. And then, you know, so far, we saw about, you know, 10 very young a three twenty neos getting retired in the market and, you know, parted out to harvest the engines just, you know, given the demand for spare engines. You know, I guess that speaks to the to the strength of the engine market.

Hillary Cacanando
Hillary Cacanando
Director - Equity Research at Deutsche Bank

So, you know, I just I just wanted to get your thoughts on on that phenomenon and, know, you if that's something that you expect to continue.

Aengus Kelly
CEO & Executive Director at AerCap

Well, there's a couple of items there, actually. On those, the report of those neos being torn down, there are, two twenty aircraft that were in Egypt. They are being disassembled. The other aircraft, the a three twenty aircraft that you're speaking about, it's my understanding that it's only the engines that have been removed. The aircraft themselves are not being torn down, and that is in order for Pratt and Whitney to support the obligations it has to its customers.

Aengus Kelly
CEO & Executive Director at AerCap

So I I that's not happening as as far as I'm aware on a 03/20 neos, the teardowns. It is only happening on the February that were in Egypt.

Hillary Cacanando
Hillary Cacanando
Director - Equity Research at Deutsche Bank

Got it. Great. That's that's very helpful. Thank you.

Operator

We will go back to Catherine O'Brien with Goldman Sachs.

Catherine O'Brien
Catherine O'Brien
Vice President at Goldman Sachs

Oh, hey. Thanks for the extra time. Maybe just one more on the sale leaseback opportunity. Are these, you know, more opportune opportunistic from distressed airlines? Or is this just a function of more deliveries driving less competition per RFP?

Catherine O'Brien
Catherine O'Brien
Vice President at Goldman Sachs

Just just was curious as I know that market has been pretty competitive and and not very attractive the last couple of years. Just wondering what's driving the shift. Thanks.

Aengus Kelly
CEO & Executive Director at AerCap

Well, Catherine, first of all, we have to execute on them. Now we have done so over the years, and you can see that indeed last year with the amount of CapEx we put on the books that was not there at the beginning of the year. You know, it's highly unlikely we're, going to be competing in open bid sale leaseback transactions. It's where we bring other things to the table in terms of our installed fleet, our engine business, etcetera. There are different things we bring to the table that others don't.

Aengus Kelly
CEO & Executive Director at AerCap

So I can't say that every deal is, uniquely bilateral, but we certainly wouldn't be entering into many sale leaseback transactions I don't think we have where there's just open bids where everybody's bidding against us.

Catherine O'Brien
Catherine O'Brien
Vice President at Goldman Sachs

Okay. Great. Thanks.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. Mr. Kelly, at this time, I will turn the conference back to you for any additional or closing remarks.

Aengus Kelly
CEO & Executive Director at AerCap

Thank you very much, everyone, for joining us for the call, and we look forward to speaking to you during the quarter. Enjoy the rest of the summer. Goodbye.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

Analysts
    • Joseph Mcginley
      Head - IR at AerCap
    • Aengus Kelly
      CEO & Executive Director at AerCap
    • Peter Juhas
      CFO at AerCap
    • Terry Ma
      Senior Equity Research Analyst at Barclays
    • Moshe Orenbuch
      MD & Senior Analyst at TD Cowen
    • Catherine O'Brien
      Vice President at Goldman Sachs
    • Ron Epstein
      Senior Research Analyst - Aerospace & Defense Electronics at Bank of America
    • James Baker
      Managing Director & Investment Specialist at JP Morgan
    • Kristine Liwag
      Executive Director at Morgan Stanley
    • Hillary Cacanando
      Director - Equity Research at Deutsche Bank
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