Peabody Energy Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
July 31, 2025

Key Takeaways

  • Positive Sentiment: Peabody raised its full-year guidance after a strong first half, citing record safety, robust volumes, and cost containment that outperformed expectations.
  • Positive Sentiment: The longwall startup at the premium hard coking coal mine Centurion has been accelerated to February 2026, with shield installation in November and headcount ramping to around 400 employees.
  • Positive Sentiment: Recent US legislation cuts federal coal royalty rates from 12.5% to 7% and adds a 2.5% production tax credit for met coal, expected to save Peabody $15–20 million in 2025.
  • Positive Sentiment: US coal fuel generation rose 15% year-over-year, customer stockpiles fell 11%, and deferred plant retirements are securing new supply agreements, tightening thermal market fundamentals.
  • Negative Sentiment: Peabody and Anglo American disagree over a Material Adverse Change at Moranbah North, and Peabody may terminate the asset purchase if no resolution is reached by August 19.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Peabody Energy Q2 2025
00:00 / 00:00

There are 9 speakers on the call.

Speaker 6

Good day and welcome to the Peabody Energy Q2 2005 earnings conference call. Today, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. Should you need assistance during today's call, please signal for a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press Star 1 on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press Star then 2. Please note that today's event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Vic Svec, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Speaker 5

Thank you, operator, and good morning everyone. Thanks for joining today to take part in Peabody Energy's second quarter call. Remarks today will be from Peabody Energy's President and CEO Jim Grech, CFO Mark Spurbeck, and our Chief Marketing Officer Malcolm Roberts. Following remarks, of course, we'll open up the call to questions now. We do have some forward-looking observations today. You'll find our full statement on forward-looking information in the press release. We encourage you to consider the risk factors referenced there along with our public filings with the SEC, and I'll now turn the call over to Jim. Thanks, Vic, and good morning everyone. Peabody Energy has had a great first half of the year. We've had record safety, solid volumes, and strong cost containment. On the basis of both our performance and our prospects, I'm pleased to report that we're raising our full-year guidance.

Speaker 5

To echo my first quarter theme, the Peabody Energy team continued to do an excellent job of controlling the controllables in the first half, with second quarter costs coming in below our expectations. Our ability to manage costs is a key driver of success at a time of cyclical market softness in the seaborne markets. Also of note, today we announced an acceleration of longwall operations at our flagship premium hard coking coal mine, Centurion. We're now targeting longwall startup in February 2026. This improved timeline reflects strong execution across our operations team. By way of progress, we plan to start installing longwall shields in November. Workforce expansion remains a key focus. We already have approximately 260 employees hired through an active recruitment process. We aim to reach a headcount of around 400 by early 2026 to support full production.

Speaker 5

I'd be remiss if I didn't also speak of the strong tailwinds in the U.S. markets. Last quarter, the President signed executive orders to revitalize the U.S. coal industry and expand the use of coal-fueled generation. Earlier this month, the one big beautiful bill was passed. It delivers long overdue relief to American coal producers by reducing royalty burdens, streamlining permitting, and restoring regulatory certainty, enabling the industry to compete, invest, and power the nation with confidence. How does the bill benefit Peabody Energy? First, the reduction in federal royalty rates on mining leases from 12.5% to 7% is expected to generate substantial savings in the Powder River Basin beginning this quarter. Based on initial analysis, Peabody anticipates $15 to $20 million in net benefits from the royalty changes in the second half of 2025, and this should also improve PRB competitiveness going forward.

Speaker 5

Also, the bill provides a 2.5% production tax credit starting January 1 for eligible domestic coal used in steelmaking, a benefit that applies to our Shoal Creek metallurgical mine in Alabama. As evidence of the need for renewed focus and common sense in U.S. energy policy, this legislation, combined with rising electricity demand, marks a clear turning point for U.S. coal. It reframes coal not as an inconvenient truth relic, but as a critical cornerstone of grid reliability and energy independence. The June 2025 heat wave made this clear. As demand surged across PJM and MISO, it was coal and natural gas that kept the grid stable while renewables were unable to scale quickly enough to frame the new electricity landscape. In the U.S., just one independent system operator recently forecasted a 32 gigawatt increase in power demand by 2030, and 30 gigawatts are related to data centers.

Speaker 5

To put this in context, they noted that increase is comparable to adding 20 million new homes to the grid in the next five years. When thinking about coal in the future, I'd ask you to focus on six surprising words: the world is turning towards coal. I'll remind investors that the IEA reports that the world set a record for coal demand in 2024 after doing so also in 2023 and has not yet peaked. U.S. coal is clearly in comeback mode, as it should be. The U.S. has more energy in its coal reserves than any nation has in any one energy source. Malcolm, I'll now turn the call over to you to give a bit more color on the markets.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Jim, and I'll add a few details regarding U.S. dynamics before turning to seaborne markets. In the U.S. we've seen a great first half of the year with coal-fueled generation up a whopping 15% over the first half of 2024. That's a function of coal increasing share, given higher natural gas prices relative to the prior year, as well as a growing electricity generation pie. As industrial activity and emerging data center demand underwrite continued electricity demand growth, that terrific picture has translated into higher demand more than improved pricing. At this stage, we note customer stockpiles are down some 15 million tonnes versus this time last year. That represents an 11% reduction from a year ago, the lowest level since 2022. That bodes well for tightening the U.S. thermal supply and demand fundamentals as we move forward.

Speaker 1

In addition to existing coal plants running much harder this year, we continue to see deferrals of retirements within the U.S. coal fleet. Simply put, most utilities need all the electrons they can muster, and coal plants offer some of the best incremental generating capacity with predictable fuel costs, reliable performance, and readily storable fuel that is ready for dispatch 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Deferrals of coal plant retirements have directly translated into new coal supply agreements for Peabody Energy, a phenomenon that we expect to continue. We have increased PRB volumes this year and are sold out at our flagship North Antelope Rochelle mine at these higher levels. My final point is that recent moves in the U.S. to increase LNG exports, including the recent U.S. agreement for major new energy purchases by Europe, should only tighten U.S.

Speaker 1

natural gas supplies as it moves to a greater parity with seaborne LNG. Seaborne thermal coal markets are also finding support in recent weeks. Demand has been driven by hot summer weather in Asia and really across the whole Northern Hemisphere, and that has reduced stockpiles and driven stronger bids. We've seen greater spot demand from our premium markets such as Japan, as they move to secure additional supplies as coal burn exceeds anticipated levels. China's import demand had been under pressure due to a 6% increase in domestic coal production through May, along with stronger renewable generation. Thermal power generation is down 3% year to date, limiting their appetite for imported coal. In India, high stockpiles and lower electricity demand have also been keeping import volumes subdued.

Speaker 1

Thermal supply is adjusting to softer demand and lower prices, with Indonesia and Colombia in particular reducing exports for seaborne and metallurgical coal. We naturally avoid forecasting prices, but we are observing meaningful supply curtailments and policy adjustments that suggest we are midway through what is typically an 18 to 24 month downward portion of the price cycle. We are beginning to see some green shoots. China remains the world's largest coal consumer, given that it accounts for over 60% of global steel production.

Speaker 1

There we are seeing some classic early signs of a market turnaround. That is true in steel, where recent production curbs have been announced, which are expected to have a dampening effect on Chinese steel exports moving forward, aiding steel production from countries that rely on met coal imports to a greater degree. It is true in coal production where the government has just announced it is cracking down on provinces and coal mining companies exceeding production quotas. It is true in infrastructure where projects such as Yalong Jiangba Dam in Tibet are being developed. This dam will be by far the largest in the world, will use large amounts of steel and concrete, and will cost more than 100 times the Hoover Dam in the U.S. on a current dollar basis. These elements combine to suggest that the Chinese playbook is being executed similar to past downturns.

Speaker 1

While China remains a key influence this time around, Indian demand growth may drive the next leg of recovery. India enters the monsoon season with just 36 days of inventory and limited restocking activity. We look for a number of new blast furnaces to accelerate seaborne coal demand by 8 to 9 million tonnes during the second half of 2025. I'll remind investors that the production of a ton of steel in India uses four to five times the amount of seaborne metallurgical coal as a tonne of Chinese steel. Given that India doesn't have notable domestic quantities of met coal, this phase of the met coal cycle also reflects the supply contraction in prior times. By our estimate, over 25 million tonnes of met coal capacity remains offline globally with substantially more volume in loss-making mode at these levels.

Speaker 1

Bottom line, while this part of the cycle has not been pleasant, we see it playing out in a similar way to past cycles. We are seeing early signs of an upturn with the real question of not if, but instead when. That's a brief review of the coal market dynamics. I'll now turn the call over to Mark.

Speaker 3

Thanks Malcolm and good morning all. As Jim mentioned, we had another strong quarter and continue to successfully navigate a challenging seaborne price environment. Seaborne pricing continued to ebb with the broader industrial cycle, steel production and power generation in the second quarter. With the cyclicality comes great opportunity. Our strategy remains to manage the lower points of the cycle to capture outsized free cash flow when we return to better price points. Peabody Energy manages that volatility with a fortress balance sheet, effective capital allocation, operating cost discipline and a diversified asset portfolio. This quarter our U.S. thermal platform led the way generating $57 million of adjusted EBITDA. Let me add some insight into the second quarter financials. We recorded a GAAP net loss attributable to common stockholders of $27.6 million or $0.23 per diluted share, while generating adjusted EBITDA of $93 million.

Speaker 3

The team turned in another great quarter of cost management with three of four segments coming in better than company targets. PRB volumes came in higher than expected. We generated $23 million in operating cash flow using some cash from the balance sheet to continue development at Centurion, now just six months away from longwall production of premium hard coking coal. We ended the quarter with $586 million of cash and nearly $1 billion of liquidity. Let's review the quarterly segment results. The seaborne thermal segment recorded $33.5 million of adjusted EBITDA and 17% margins even with a loss of 400,000 tons from end of quarter port congestion. Regardless, the segment still beat second quarter cost guidance. Margins remain robust in the face of a modest price environment, underscoring the strength of our position on the thermal cost curve.

Speaker 3

The seaborne metallurgical segment reported adjusted EBITDA loss of $9.2 million or 23% lower, 23% lower averaged realized prices year over year. Costs remained well below company targets as the team continued to control the controllables while investing in the Capobello Highwall with additional overburden movement to ensure more reliable production for years to come. The U.S. thermal mines generated $57 million of adjusted EBITDA. This platform continues to demonstrate why we believe the U.S. business with its stable free cash flows and low capital requirements is underappreciated and remains a key part of our leading diversified asset portfolio.

Speaker 6

In.

Speaker 3

The Powder River Basin. Sales volumes exceeded expectations even with 11 inches of rain over 60 days in Q2, or nearly their full year average rainfall. With that rain came excess moisture, leading to a negative $0.20 per ton quality adjustment to realized sales price, making the $2.16 per ton margin even more impressive. The PRB improved margins by better than $1 per ton year over year and generated $43 million of adjusted EBITDA. The other U.S. thermal segment delivered $13.5 million of adjusted EBITDA. Sales volumes were less than expected as Bear Run experienced poor rail performance and 20 Mile continued to operate in challenging mining conditions in the Six East panel. The 20 Mile team is eagerly anticipating finishing that panel in the next couple of weeks.

Speaker 3

We will begin moving the longwall to a new district in mid-August and should start cutting coal in the 11 East Panel at the beginning of the fourth quarter. 11 East Panel is positioned at the edge of a coal seam with much better geology, and we expect to return to historical production rates. Looking ahead to the third quarter, seaborne thermal volumes are expected to be 3.9 million tons, including 2.7 million export, 600,000 of which are priced on average at $82 per ton, while 1 million tons of Newcastle product and 1.1 million tons of high ash coal are unpriced. Seaborne thermal costs per ton are expected to be between $45 and $50 per ton, in line with full year guidance. Seaborne met volumes are targeted at 2.2 million tons, consistent with the second quarter, while costs are expected to improve a bit further to $115 per ton.

Speaker 3

In the PRB, we expect a significant increase in volume to 23 million tons. Costs are also expected to improve from the second quarter and come in lower at about $11.25 per ton, leading to continued robust margins. Other U.S. thermal coal shipments are expected to increase to 3.7 million tons with better rail performance at Bear Run. Costs are also anticipated to improve to approximately $47 per ton. Rounding out the discussion with several favorable changes to full year guidance, seaborne thermal volumes are anticipated to be 200,000 tons higher and cost $3 per ton better at $45 to $48 per ton. Seaborne met cost targets are better by $7.50 per ton to $115 to $120 per ton. With the strong first half and recent legislation, the company is increasing PRB volumes by 5 million tons and lowering full year costs by $0.63 to $11.50 to $12.

Speaker 3

We are also reducing full year CapEx $30 million to $420 million. Jim, I'll now turn the call back to you.

Speaker 5

Thanks, Mark. Before turning to questions, I'll now give a brief update on the previously planned acquisition of assets from Anglo American. Here's where we are. It has now been four full months since the ignition incident at Anglo's Moranbah North mine, and yet there is still no credible timetable on the resumption of sustainable longwall mining. Impact on the value of the assets includes monthly lost production and revenue, carrying costs of tens of millions of dollars per month, expected capital related to new longwall equipment that will be needed for sustainable longwall mining, significant probable de-rate of future productive capacity at the mine, and questions around both the availability and willingness of the workforce to resume safe underground longwall mining in the current panel if regulators ever allow it.

Speaker 5

Our understanding of conditions underground, along with the continued passage of time, has further confirmed our strong belief that a material adverse change has occurred. A thorough review has led to this perspective by our underground mining team, our engineering staff, third-party experts, and executive management. While some modest near-term activity may occur, this should not be mistaken as being equivalent to having a predictable timeline and quantifiable cost and productivity impact assessments associated with achieving sustainable mining in the current longwall panel four full months after the event. The exact cause of the ignition event remains unclear, and by Peabody safety standards, we would not restart operations at the current longwall phase. We are highly confident that sustainable longwall mining won't take place at Moranbah North until after a new longwall is fully commissioned in a new section of the mine in 2026.

Speaker 5

The priorities we identified several months ago have not changed. Peabody intends to rely on its rights under the purchase agreements, which give Peabody the ability to terminate. Any revised deal would require a substantial revision in value and structure that reflects the material change in the previously agreed upon transaction, as well as safe, sustainable longwall mining at Moranbah North at forecasted volumes and cost. Peabody has not reached a revised agreement with the seller, and we intend to provide a further update on August 19th after the 90-day MAC cure period expires. We appreciate your patience as we conclude a process that has now been underway for nearly a year. With that, operator, we can now open up the line to questions.

Speaker 5

Thank you.

Speaker 6

We will now begin the question and answer session. As a reminder, to ask a question, you may press Star then one on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw it, please press Star then two. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. Today's first question comes from George Eady with UBS. Please proceed.

Speaker 6

Yeah, hi Tim, thanks for the time today and hope you're keeping well. Could you maybe please help us start with Moranbah North mine MAC. Just help us understand how you're thinking about going forward under the MAC, in the scenario where you're found liable in, say, two years. This may be unlikely in your view, but I'm sure it's a scenario you've considered and have put quite a bit of thought into. Could you maybe help us how you would think about paying for such a liability? Maybe some color how we should be thinking about it in terms of potential cash build and returns over the insurance period if you were to declare a MAC.

Speaker 5

Yeah, hey, George, thanks for the question. Look, we're very, very confident in our MAC position going forward. If you look at what's been going on at the mine, as I said in my comments, it's still to be determined the exact cause of the ignition, alright, so the impacts of future operating conditions are unknown. There's no known credible restart date for this mine. While it's occurring, while the mine hasn't restarted, there's significant monthly carrying costs being incurred. As I said in my comments, we consider what's going to be the future scenario that longwall panel is going to be sealed off and the need of a new longwall being in place in a different area of the mine would be the path to getting sustainable longwall production again at that mine.

Speaker 5

It's probably going to be at a significant de-rate going forward because of new operating conditions, because of the past operating history of the mine. On top of that, you have all this monthly lost production and revenue. We are very, very confident in our MAC going forward. If we have to pursue this in arbitration, we are ready to do so.

Speaker 5

Just on that, if you do continue with the MAC, if we get two years down and on a small chance maybe in your view that you are found liable, like how should we think about cash returns and the balance sheet over the next two years going to that period? Even though it might be very unlikely, it still is a chance.

Speaker 5

George, I'm not sure your question exactly. We have our program in place where we return at least 65% of our adjusted free cash flow back to our shareholders. That's a program we have in place. If you're asking about that, that's not going to change. If you're asking about a possible arbitration ruling or something, you know, we.

Speaker 5

Don'T.

Speaker 5

We're not going to put any reserve for that because that's more likely than not view that we would face damages. Your questions for us are just purely hypothetical about damages occurring. We are 100% confident in our MAC and we are 100% confident if we go to arbitration that we would be proved correct in the position we're taking.

Speaker 5

Okay, now that's fair. Maybe just switching gears, Centurion, can you remind us what the latest there is on the sell down timing? Given this is a restart project and we spend a lot of time talking about longwall reliability of the kind you'll theme, is there any chance or any talks of a clause in that contract with a sell down that a buyer could potentially have the right to walk away or adjust terms if certain production hurdles haven't been met? Is that something that's being considered?

Speaker 5

George, again, you're asking a hypothetical and I'm not going to go down that path. If we were in negotiations, I wouldn't comment on those negotiations. As for Centurion, that's a potential, is the sell down of Centurion, and it's no way a commitment that we're going to do. We'll make a decision how we're going to handle Centurion based on what's best for our shareholders going forward, and it has nothing at all to do with obviously this Anglo American situation. I have no comment on any possible terms because there aren't any possible terms to be discussed right now.

Speaker 5

Okay. Yeah. Excellent timing, though. Is there any indication you can give of when it could potentially happen?

Speaker 5

No, there's nothing. I'm not going to give any timing indication. We have had a lot of interest, and we have had some discussions at this point in time, but we feel in no hurry to make a decision at this point in time on Centurion.

Speaker 6

Today's next question comes from Chris LaFemina with Jefferies. Please proceed.

Speaker 3

Chris, we can't hear.

Speaker 6

Chris LaFemina.

Speaker 6

Sorry guys, I have my mute on.

Speaker 5

Sorry.

Speaker 5

Thank you for taking my question. I just wanted to ask a couple of follow ups actually on the Anglo American deal. Anglo American this morning talked about being constructive and flexible in their discussions with Peabody Energy, and it sounds like the discussions obviously haven't gone very well. The first question I would have is whether you're in current discussions with Anglo American or we hit an impasse and now things are kind of on hold. Maybe you restart negotiations before the August 19 deadline. Are you speaking with them now or are things just kind of everybody on the sidelines right now?

Speaker 5

Hi Chris. Good morning. We've had very candid and respectful conversations with Anglo American at the highest levels between the two companies. I'll say the status is right now we just have a very fundamental disagreement over the quantum of the impact. We are obviously 100% certain there's a MAC and we feel we have all of the data. It's evident to back that up. Right now my assumption is that Anglo American is saying that there isn't a MAC occurring. We have a fundamental disagreement over the mine, the status of the mine, and the quantum of the impacts of what's occurred at the mine. We've had some very, again, very respectful discussions. I'm appreciative of the give and take that's been going back and forth.

Speaker 5

We just have a fundamental disagreement of the status of the mine now, how it's been over the past four months, how it's going to be for the rest of this year, and how it's going to be next year going forward.

Speaker 5

The dispute here is related to whether Moranbah North is a MAC event. Is there a potential solution where you meet in the middle, where you.

Speaker 3

You kind of structured the initial.

Speaker 3

Deal with the Grosvenor asset on contingent deferred payments. How about something like that related to Moranbah North mine? If you think it won't come back online, they may do. You don't pay for it unless it does, that kind of thing. Is there some sort of, I'm sorry to ask such a hypothetical question, just trying to think of where the two sides can meet in the middle where you can, you know, basically if the mine comes online.

Speaker 5

You pay for it.

Speaker 5

If it doesn't, you don't.

Speaker 5

Chris, you sound like you're trying to be a mediator in a dispute. I appreciate the efforts, but look, I'm not going to get into any negotiations on an earnings call. You know, August 19th date isn't that far away from us and at that time we can just talk freely about everything that's going on.

Speaker 5

Okay, and then just the last question. If you do go to arbitration, let's assume that were unfortunately to happen. Does the Booma transaction terminate as well? What are the consequences of going to arbitration?

Speaker 5

Yes, if we terminate the deal, then the BMO transaction, the deal we have with BMO, terminates as well. Back to back. Okay, thanks for that.

Speaker 6

The next question is from Nick Giles with B. Riley Securities. Please proceed.

Speaker 3

Thanks operator.

Speaker 3

Good morning everyone. Just first follow up on Anglo. I mean the views on Moranbah North's impact, you know, continue to differ substantially across. I was just wondering if you had any additional color on what should we be looking for on August 19th when you come out with this update? I mean, should we be thinking the determination will shortly follow? Can you just kind of remind us of the factors and potential timelines that play on the back of that update?

Speaker 5

Thanks. Yeah. Nick, again, I'm not going to get into negotiations or hypotheticals or what may be occurring on August 19th. I'll just say that there was a 90-day period to cure the MAC, and at the end of the 90-day period we have the right to terminate the agreement. That's the situation, and you know, we'll wait till August 19th.

Speaker 5

Understood, Jim. Apologies if I missed them all, but you did list a number of factors that underpin Peabody's view that a material adverse change (MAC) has occurred. I couldn't quite compare those to the ones that you provided last quarter. I was just wondering if you could provide us which of those factors are somewhat incremental or which have changed in your mind?

Speaker 5

Thanks a lot.

Speaker 5

Yeah. Nick, I'm not sure to compare to previous statements. You're asking me to. I don't have that in front of me to compare one set of statements to the other. What I will say is in order to solve a problem, you have to understand what the problem is. To date, the exact cause of the ignition has not been determined. How do you address that? It still needs to be addressed. There is the status of the current longwall. Is that longwall recoverable in the current panel? Will it be running again in that panel, which we don't think is a scenario that's going forward? You're going to have probable D rates of the facility going forward because of future operating conditions that are put on based on the past operating history of the mine. Also, you have all the monthly loss production and revenue.

Speaker 5

We think this is going to go on into some point in time next year. All of those factors are in there. I'm not sure how that compares to what I said previously.

Speaker 5

Got it. Understood. Now, Jim, I appreciate you walking us through what you can here, but maybe just on the operating side, you lowered your seaborne thermal cost guidance by $3 a ton at the midpoint. Unless I'm mistaken, I think the full year guide still implies that costs could be higher in the second half. I'm just wondering, what are the ultimate drivers there? I mean, we do have Wambo coming offline, which I know is to lower costs. I'm just trying to figure out which factors are offsetting each other. Thanks a lot.

Speaker 3

Hey, good morning, Nick. It's Mark. You're right. The team has done an absolutely incredible job managing costs. We talked about this last quarter, another great quarter, really leading us to believe that those costs are going to be lower on a full year basis. We did lower them $3. You know, we missed 400,000 tons purely due to port congestion. We've seen a lot of that come back in July. We've raised our full year guidance by 200,000 tons in the segment, and the net result is lower cost by $3 for the full year. Really happy with all the progress.

Speaker 3

We'll.

Speaker 6

Our next question comes from Katja Jancic with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed.

Speaker 6

Hi, thank you for taking my questions. Maybe going back to Centurion, given that the development is progressing ahead of schedule, can you talk a bit more about how this could impact the sales targets there?

Speaker 3

Gotcha. It's Mark again. A couple of things. One, yeah, pulled that longwall production forward earlier into the first quarter of next year. Really just six months from now. Very exciting time. Think back. The company is self-funded by organic cash flow. $600 million to date on the development of that key asset, but $100 million to go in the south before that longwall production starts. Pulling it forward earlier will obviously start production earlier. When you look at the timing of the production there, it probably also may accelerate a longwall move, their first longwall move. Previously we have three and a half million tons out there for next year production. We're not changing that. We're not changing that yet today.

Speaker 3

Okay. Maybe on the PRB cost, just to confirm, that includes now the new royalty rate.

Speaker 3

Yes, it does. The lower reduction from 12.5% to 7% is baked into that guidance. Increased volumes by 5 million tons of the PRB for the full year, seeing continued strong demand, we will have a benefit to our costs in the second half of the year due to that lower royalty rate. As you mentioned last quarter, a portion of that does go back to certain customers. We'll actually see that as a net reduction in revenue, our average realized sales price. A little bit comes out there, but net, net, we're looking at about a $0.40 per ton benefit to Peabody half tons. That's in that $15 to $20 million range.

Speaker 3

Going to next year, I think on an annualized basis it would be closer to $60 million if I'm not mistaken. Is there opportunity to further increase the potential benefit versus what you're getting right now?

Speaker 3

Yeah.

Speaker 3

Going forward, obviously that benefit, as Jim mentioned in his remarks, will make the PRB coal just more cost competitive. We expect that to help overall volumes. How much of that is to Peabody's account will depend on new contracts as we sign that up. Right now we're probably about 2/3 signed up for 2026 and maybe 50% for 2027.

Speaker 3

Okay, thank you.

Speaker 3

You're welcome. Thanks, Katja.

Speaker 5

Thanks, Katja.

Speaker 6

As a reminder, if you do have a question, please press star then one. The next question comes from Nathan Martin with The Benchmark Company. Please proceed.

Speaker 6

Thanks, operator. Good morning, everyone. I think a lot of my questions have been touched on. You mentioned Shoal Creek will benefit from the 2.5% production tax credit for metallurgical coal that was included in the big beautiful bill. Could you guys put a savings estimate kind of around that like you did for the PRB?

Speaker 3

Yeah, Nate, just a reminder. That doesn't take effect until January 1, 2026. Nothing in the full year guidance for that. You know, I'd put it about $5 million a year.

Speaker 3

Okay, thanks, Mark. Maybe while I have you, I know I've talked about this on numerous occasions, but once again, operating cost this quarter as well as resource management results added significantly to the 2Q adjusted EBITDA. Any specifics there to call out? I know these segments are lumpy, but can you talk about what your expectations are here for the second half? Are there any other big drivers you see there?

Speaker 3

Yeah, Nate, you're right. We did have some unexpected performance from some asset sales in the second quarter. We had a continuous miner sale at the Wambo Underground Mine, as you recall, that will be closing down in the third quarter, as well as some miscellaneous U.S. land sales. We have a large portfolio of land and from time to time we optimize that portfolio, make sales of these assets. It is lumpy and unpredictable. I will say that offset the 400,000 tons we lost in the U.S. thermal business, mostly due to that poor rail performance at the Bear Run Mine, as well as the 400,000 tons we lost simply due to port congestion, which we're making back up in the second half by increasing that full year guidance. Those two really offset each other and everything's on track.

Speaker 3

Are there any big items you kind of see over the second half, Mark, or we're still uncertain?

Speaker 3

No, as far as that other items, there's nothing to forecast there.

Speaker 3

Okay, got it.

Speaker 3

Helpful.

Speaker 3

Maybe finally just switching gears, as I'm sure you guys are aware, one of your peers in the Powder River Basin is ramping up a new rare earth mine. It's been getting a lot of attention. Jim, has Peabody done any testing of its reserves at this point to see what, if any, rare earth elements are present? Just thinking about this, given the favorable administration and regulatory backdrop we're seeing currently.

Speaker 5

Yeah, Nate, that's a timely question. You know, we are advancing into what I'll call a second phase of our rare earth element evaluation program in the PRB. We had an initial study that we did with the University of Wyoming that we concluded last year. Now we're into the second phase. The initial data from that study suggested that our roof and floor strata adjacent to the current mining seams could contain some elevated levels of these rare earth elements at both our NARM complex and our Rawhide complex. These initial indications that we have seem to show that we have the same or better concentrations than others reporting in the PRB. I will say one thing that is important to note as we move forward with this.

Speaker 5

The rare earth elements that are sitting in these clays are very accessible to us because we're already uncovering them in the coal mining process. We do not need to develop new mines to excavate this overburden. This quarter, we're going to do some more sampling and laboratory analysis at our site. We're in some very early days, but we certainly have more than enough information justifying going forward. This is not really appreciable or capable for us right now. We're in the study phase. Very, very encouraging initially. I guess I'll leave it.

Speaker 3

Nate.

Speaker 5

Stay tuned for some more information as we advance this.

Speaker 5

Okay, appreciate those thoughts, guys. Thanks for the time and best of luck in the second half.

Speaker 5

Thanks Nate.

Speaker 6

The next question is a follow-up from Nick Giles with B. Riley Securities. Please proceed.

Speaker 5

Thanks for taking my follow up.

Speaker 5

Just one on liquidity. You ended the quarter with $586 million of cash.

Speaker 5

I was wondering if you could.

Speaker 5

Remind us how much of that cash is fully unencumbered, and then maybe related, sorry if I missed this, but how much has been spent or how much spend remains at Centurion to ultimately bring you to commercial production. Thanks very much.

Speaker 3

Yeah, thanks, Nick. No concerns here on the cash and the balance sheet. That total amount of cash and cash equivalents of about $586 million is unrestricted, unencumbered, and fully available to the company. You do see on our balance sheet a separate line item for restricted cash and collateral of about $850 million. That primarily relates to all the pre-funded of the reclamation liability across the globe. As far as Centurion capital for the south development, there's about another $100 million in the second half of the year. That'll get us to longwall production. Again, our initial target on that was $489 million. I think if you add that $100 million, you might get to about $495 million. Almost right on the dot. Great.

Speaker 3

Thanks so much for that, Mark. That's really maybe just on the restricted cash and collateral. Can you remind us, are there any relevant timelines we should be thinking about as far as unlocking some of that restricted cash? Just don't want to leave anything out there.

Speaker 6

Thanks.

Speaker 3

Yeah, you know, about $520 million of that is related to the surety agreement with our reclamation providers or bonding providers for future reclamation. We have been able to reduce that amount over the last year, year and a half, and really that's done by continuing to do the reclamation work and getting bond releases. Beginning of the year we talked about a $100 million reduction. We've had some pretty good success there. Again, it's lumpy as that work gets done and as bond releases get approved, but we continue to knock that down.

Speaker 5

Got it, guys.

Speaker 5

Thank you again and continue. Best of luck.

Speaker 3

Thanks Nick.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Nick.

Speaker 6

This concludes today's question and answer session. I would now like to turn today's conference back over to Jim Grech for any closing remarks.

Speaker 5

Thank you, operator, and thanks to everyone for the time today. I also want to make sure I give recognition to our Peabody team, which amid everything else that's going on, we are again turning in record safety performance on track to beat last year's performance, which was the best in our 140 plus year history. Very appreciative of that. We look forward to keeping all of you up to date on our progress as the year rolls on. Thank you.

Speaker 6

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation, and you may now disconnect.

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