Emergent Biosolutions Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
August 6, 2025

Key Takeaways

  • Positive Sentiment: The company delivered Q2 revenues of $141 M, beating guidance by $21 M and raised full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to $175 M–$200 M.
  • Positive Sentiment: Year-to-date adjusted EBITDA reached $106 M, liquidity increased by $297 M, and net leverage improved to 1.9× from 9.9× a year ago.
  • Positive Sentiment: International medical countermeasure sales now represent 40% of revenues, with seven revenue-generating contract modifications signed year-to-date.
  • Positive Sentiment: The NARCAN business rebounded over 50% since Q1, volumes are flat excluding one-time events, and Cloxado integration into the Narcan Direct platform should boost market access.
  • Positive Sentiment: Cost optimization and strategic divestitures drove substantial expense reductions, and the company initiated a $50 M share repurchase, buying back 1.1 M shares in Q2.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Emergent Biosolutions Q2 2025
00:00 / 00:00

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Operator

Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining today as Emergent discusses their operational and financial results for the 2025. As is customary, today's call is open to all participants. The call is being recorded and is copyrighted by Emergent BioSolutions. In addition to today's press release, there are a series of slides accompanying this webcast available to all webcast participants.

Operator

Turning to slide two. During today's call, Emergent may make projections and other forward looking statements related to their business, future events, their prospects, or future performance. These forward looking statements are based on their current intentions, beliefs, and expectations regarding future events. Any forward looking statement speaks only as of the date of this conference call. And except as required by law, Emergent does not undertake to update any forward looking statement to reflect new information, events or circumstances.

Operator

Investors should consider this cautionary statement as well as the risk factors identified in Emergent's periodic reports filed with the SEC when evaluating their forward looking statements. During today's call, Emergent may also discuss certain non GAAP financial measures that involve adjustments to GAAP figures in order to provide greater transparency regarding Emergent's operating performance. Please refer to the tables found in today's press release. Turning to slide three, the agenda for today's call will include Joe Papa, President and Chief Executive Officer, who will provide an update on the company's transformation plan and highly key results and Rich Lindahl, EVP and Chief Financial Officer, who will provide details on the second quarter and year to date 2025 financial results as well as provide an update on full year 2025 guidance. Joe Papa will conclude by discussing the company's business performance and key catalyst for growth followed by Q and A.

Operator

Finally, for the benefit of those who may be listening to the replay of this webcast, this call was held and recorded on 08/06/2025. Since then, Emergent may have made announcements related to topics discussed during today's call. And with that, I would now like to turn the call over to Joe Papa. Joe?

Joseph Papa
Joseph Papa
President, CEO & Director at Emergent BioSolutions

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining our second quarter twenty twenty five earnings call. This is Joe Papa, CEO of Emergent, and I'm joined today by Rich Lindella, our Chief Financial Officer. Let's turn to slide five. I am pleased to report that we are making great progress and continue to execute our plan and are on track with our multi year transformation.

Joseph Papa
Joseph Papa
President, CEO & Director at Emergent BioSolutions

First, I want to thank all of our emerging colleagues for their great work staying focused on our mission to protect and save lives while advancing our turnaround priorities. Among our key goals for 2025 are to pursue strategic investment opportunities both internal and externally through business development that will position Emergent for long term stable growth, while creating significant value for our shareholders. Throughout the quarter, we focused on increased operational efficiency and driving profitable growth, as well as maintaining our market leadership position in the critical biodefense and public health sectors where we have strong established customer relationships. Turning to slide six, we present a more detailed look at the second quarter. I could not be prouder of our second quarter performance, where we beat our internal guidance on both the top and bottom line.

Joseph Papa
Joseph Papa
President, CEO & Director at Emergent BioSolutions

Second quarter revenues of $141,000,000 came in 21,000,000 above our guidance range of 95,000,000 to $120,000,000 Even more impressively, year to date we have achieved $106,000,000 in adjusted EBITDA based on our stronger than expected gross margins. In light of this, we are raising the low end and the midpoint for 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $175,000,000 to $200,000,000 from 150,000,000 to $200,000,000 previously. Year to date, we have increased our liquidity by $297,000,000 and now have access to $367,000,000 in financial capacity to invest in growth opportunities. This includes $267,000,000 of cash on our balance sheet and also includes our undrawn $100,000,000 revolver. Our net leverage has now improved to 1.9 times debt to adjusted EBITDA.

Joseph Papa
Joseph Papa
President, CEO & Director at Emergent BioSolutions

That's down from 9.9 times in the 2024. And our stock has rebounded to qualify for inclusion in the Russell 3,000 Index. These financial achievements represent the evidence of our progress to date. As you can see from the slide, we executed seven revenue producing contract modifications year to date, and we are clearly an industry leader in medical countermeasures. Our 2024 investments in international programs outside The U.

Joseph Papa
Joseph Papa
President, CEO & Director at Emergent BioSolutions

S. Has already generated great results. As you can see, our international MCM sales represent 40% of the revenues year to date. We are committed as ever to help combat the opioid overdose epidemic and saving lives. Our position as the market leader of the naloxone category remains very strong, as our business rebounded over 50% since the 2025, following the one time events we experienced in the first quarter of the year.

Joseph Papa
Joseph Papa
President, CEO & Director at Emergent BioSolutions

I'll share more on Naloxone business at MCN later in the presentation. Lastly, we are looking at multiple levers to create growth and drive shareholder value. We have already done this through cash generating divestitures while preserving our EBITDA. We are also making progress in evaluating our internal R and D efforts while we are exploring synergistic external bolt on opportunities like ROCCATVAX and the Cloxado nasal spray. Finally, we implemented a twelve month share repurchase program of $50,000,000 and we have repurchased 1,100,000.0 shares in the second quarter.

Joseph Papa
Joseph Papa
President, CEO & Director at Emergent BioSolutions

We believe Emergent is well positioned for a strong 2025. On slide seven, Emergent is a business founded over twenty five years ago. We are an established and reliable partner in both the U. S. Government and other allied governments.

Joseph Papa
Joseph Papa
President, CEO & Director at Emergent BioSolutions

Our business is unlike that of traditional pharmaceutical companies. Our manufacturing model is North American centric. In other words, we have a durable supply chain because our MCM products are manufactured in The U. S. Or at a USMCA compliant facility in Canada.

Joseph Papa
Joseph Papa
President, CEO & Director at Emergent BioSolutions

Furthermore, Emergent remains committed to our historical practice of offering the most favored pricing for our medical countermeasure products to the US government. We believe this pricing model reflects our role as a trusted partner with the current administration and supports long term collaboration with the US government. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Rich to walk through our second quarter financial results.

Richard Lindahl
Richard Lindahl
EVP, CFO & Treasurer at Emergent BioSolutions

Thanks, Joe. Good afternoon, everyone. We appreciate you joining the call. Emergent's second quarter results reflect continued strong execution and progress on our multiyear transformation plan. Our second quarter revenue came in at $141,000,000 exceeding the top end of our guidance range by $21,000,000 The second quarter performance was driven by both pillars of our core business, medical countermeasures and NARCAN.

Richard Lindahl
Richard Lindahl
EVP, CFO & Treasurer at Emergent BioSolutions

We have meaningfully strengthened our cash position and materially reduced our net leverage to 1.9 times from 9.9 times a year ago. Adjusted net income for the second quarter was $9,000,000 representing substantial improvement compared to the $122,000,000 loss in the same period in 2024. Additionally, we saw significant year over year improvements in both adjusted gross margin and adjusted EBITDA margin, driven by strategic divestitures, cost reduction actions, and the continued execution of government contracts over the past year. These results underscore the progress we are making in reshaping the business towards sustained profitability. Both our medical countermeasure and opioid overdose reversal products continue to deliver solid performance with consistent demand, supported by strong bipartisan backing.

Richard Lindahl
Richard Lindahl
EVP, CFO & Treasurer at Emergent BioSolutions

Our leadership in MCM remains a strategic priority, with both U. S. Government and international partners relying on our proven capabilities to enhance health security and emergency preparedness. With that, let's move to the second quarter financials. As highlighted on slide nine, our key financial metrics are total revenues of $141,000,000 which came in above our initial guidance range of 95,000,000 to $120,000,000 Note that second quarter twenty twenty four had revenues from several streams that are not recurring in 2025.

Richard Lindahl
Richard Lindahl
EVP, CFO & Treasurer at Emergent BioSolutions

These include our divested RSDL product, revenue from our divested Camden CDMO facility, and the one time Janssen $50,000,000 settlement revenue. All of these were partially offset by higher smallpox sales in Q2 twenty twenty five. Adjusted EBITDA was $29,000,000 an increase of $39,000,000 versus negative $10,000,000 the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA margin of 20%, an increase of 2,400 basis points versus the prior year. Adjusted gross margin of 49% improved 2,300 basis points year over year, driven by favorable product mix, expanded international sales of MCM products, and a leaner manufacturing cost structure stemming from our previously announced restructuring initiatives and divestitures.

Richard Lindahl
Richard Lindahl
EVP, CFO & Treasurer at Emergent BioSolutions

And finally, operating expenses were down $63,000,000 or 53% versus the prior year across R and D and SG and A. Transitioning to slide 10, our second quarter revenue highlights were total product sales of $126,000,000 down year over year as higher smallpox revenue was offset by lower NARCAN and anthrax sales. All other revenue, comprised of services as well as contracts and grants revenue, was $15,000,000 In the '4, revenues for this segment included $50,000,000 from the Janssen settlement, as well as sales from our Camden CDMO facility. Total sales were $141,000,000 and again $21,000,000 above the high end of our guidance range. This was driven primarily by smallpox revenue timing and also a stronger than expected rebound in NARCAN public interest sales.

Richard Lindahl
Richard Lindahl
EVP, CFO & Treasurer at Emergent BioSolutions

Turning to NARCAN, sales saw a roughly 50% increase in revenue in the second quarter as compared to the 2025, following the one time disruption of a distributor selling short dated generic naloxone at discounted pricing. With that event now behind us and improved clarity around federal funding, state level purchasing has stabilized, supporting consistent demand across both the public interest and retail channels. To further highlight the improved performance of NARCAN in the '5, if you exclude the sales to California in '4, U. S. Public interest volume was flat year over year, highlighting our market leading position in this channel.

Richard Lindahl
Richard Lindahl
EVP, CFO & Treasurer at Emergent BioSolutions

In addition, we improved access and operational efficiency by integrating KLuxado into our NARCAN Direct platform, streamlining procurement of both NARCAN and KLuxado for first responders and public health partners. We believe that this will further reinforce our leadership position. Turning to slide 11, I'll walk through our performance for the 2025. Total revenue was $363,000,000 The decrease versus the '4 primarily reflects divestitures, onetime services revenue, as well as some strategic pricing actions taken on NARCAN to maintain competitiveness within institutional and government channels amid evolving dynamics. Adjusted EBITDA was $106,000,000 or 29% of total revenue, an improvement of approximately $49,000,000 and 1,900 basis points year over year.

Richard Lindahl
Richard Lindahl
EVP, CFO & Treasurer at Emergent BioSolutions

This illustrates our strong operating leverage and cost reductions taken last year. Adjusted gross margin of 54% improved 1,500 basis points compared to the prior year. This expansion was driven by a more favorable product mix and continued operational efficiencies stemming from the 2024 restructuring initiatives. Operating expenses totaled $124,000,000 a $95,000,000 reduction from the prior year. This meaningful decrease reflects the successful execution of our 2024 cost optimization strategy, which has materially streamlined our expenses and improved our financial flexibility.

Richard Lindahl
Richard Lindahl
EVP, CFO & Treasurer at Emergent BioSolutions

Moving to slide 12, the 2025 total product sales were $328,000,000 Breaking that down by key product, NARCAN revenue totaled $113,000,000 Amtrak's medical countermeasure revenue was $60,000,000 influenced by timing of government procurement orders. Smallpox revenue grew to $147,000,000 material year over year improvement, reflecting deliveries under our multiyear contracts and a significant increase in international demand. And finally, all other revenues were $35,000,000 reflecting our contracting grants revenue from the U. S. Government funded Ibanga development program.

Richard Lindahl
Richard Lindahl
EVP, CFO & Treasurer at Emergent BioSolutions

2024 revenue also included the one time $50,000,000 in Janssen settlement and Camden CDMO business revenues. Turning to slide 13, I'm pleased to report continued progress in strengthening our financial position. As of the 2025, total liquidity reached $367,000,000 comprised of $267,000,000 of cash and $100,000,000 of undrawn revolver capacity. Both liquidity and cash were significantly improved year over year. Our net debt in the 2025 was $433,000,000 a $361,000,000 reduction or 45% year over year.

Richard Lindahl
Richard Lindahl
EVP, CFO & Treasurer at Emergent BioSolutions

Operating cash flow also improved $110,000,000 driven by strong improvements in our net working capital. And coupled with our improved profitability, we reduced our net leverage significantly year over year, ending at 1.9 times adjusted EBITDA in the 2025. With an enhanced cash position and increased financial flexibility, we believe we are well positioned to evaluate strategic growth initiatives while continuing to drive long term value for shareholders. Please turn to slide 14 and I'll touch on our key capital allocation priorities in support of our multi year transformation plan. We're primarily focused on three key areas: growth, debt repayment, and share repurchases.

Richard Lindahl
Richard Lindahl
EVP, CFO & Treasurer at Emergent BioSolutions

First, we're investing in both organic and inorganic opportunities to strengthen our core businesses and drive future revenue expansion. We're focused on increasing international revenue from our medical countermeasures segment. We're also expanding our commercial reach through KLXSUTO Nasal Spray, which was recently integrated into our sales platform NARCAN Direct. We also made an investment into RocketVax and are evaluating investments into key internal R and D programs. Going forward, we plan to continue to assess business development opportunities that align with our core markets and long term growth strategy to effectively deploy investment capital.

Richard Lindahl
Richard Lindahl
EVP, CFO & Treasurer at Emergent BioSolutions

Next, we'll consider debt repayment to strengthen our balance sheet and improve financial flexibility. We're also committed to exploring additional ways to create shareholder value. We previously announced a $50,000,000 share repurchase program in March 2025, which is active through March 2026. In the '5, we repurchased 1,100,000.0 shares for $6,900,000 We will continue to evaluate the timing and amount of future share repurchases based on market conditions and other factors. Transitioning to slide 15, we are raising the low end and midpoint of our full year 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance and narrowing the 2025 revenue range based on performance year to date.

Richard Lindahl
Richard Lindahl
EVP, CFO & Treasurer at Emergent BioSolutions

Full year 2025 guidance is as follows: total revenues of $765,000,000 to $835,000,000 For the first half of the year, we reported revenues of $363,000,000 and are still expecting a stronger back half of the year adjusted EBITDA of 175,000,000 to $200,000,000 which is an increase of approximately $13,000,000 at the midpoint, reflecting year over year margin improvement driven by a more efficient cost structure across the business adjusted gross margin of 50% to 52%, which is a roughly 600 basis point expansion at the midpoint versus 2024 results, primarily driven by restructuring initiatives, improved utilization across our streamlined manufacturing network, and the growing contribution from international partnerships. Moving to segment level revenue guidance. For MCM product sales, we are anticipating $440,000,000 to $475,000,000 across U. S. Government and international orders.

Richard Lindahl
Richard Lindahl
EVP, CFO & Treasurer at Emergent BioSolutions

Commercial products, including KLXANO, are expected in the range of $265,000,000 to $300,000,000 And for the '5, we're forecasting total revenue of 180,000,000 to $210,000,000 driven by ongoing strength across both our commercial and MCM portfolios. This outlook reflects our visibility into the timing of MCM deliveries, with the majority expected in the second half of the year. Additionally, NARCAN continues to perform well, supported by consistent demand. We believe that the intranasal naloxone market will grow in the low to mid single digits, supported by ongoing public health initiatives and strong demand across both commercial and public interest channels. We continue to maintain a market leading position in this space, which we think further reflects the resilience of our brand and the trust we've built with key stakeholders.

Richard Lindahl
Richard Lindahl
EVP, CFO & Treasurer at Emergent BioSolutions

In closing on slide 15, we're making solid progress on the turnaround phase of our multiyear plan with strong execution through the '5. Our 2025 revenue outlook remains focused on our core business across both the medical countermeasures and commercial segments. Of note, we are also seeing strong demand for our MCM products internationally, a key strategic focus, with year to date sales of $102,000,000 or 48 percent of total MCM revenue. Utilization has improved across our manufacturing network, and streamlined operating expenses are driving sustained positive operating cash flow and robust cash generation year to date. The improved profitability of our business, coupled with the significant improvement in cash, has resulted in a material deleveraging of the business.

Richard Lindahl
Richard Lindahl
EVP, CFO & Treasurer at Emergent BioSolutions

Again, leverage ended at 1.9 times adjusted EBITDA in the 2025, down from 9.9 times in the prior year. Looking forward, we remain committed to pursuing strategic growth investments while actively identifying opportunities to deliver value to our shareholders. I'll now turn the call back over to Joe to discuss our business outlook and catalysts. Joe?

Joseph Papa
Joseph Papa
President, CEO & Director at Emergent BioSolutions

Thank you Rich. Turning to slide number 18, I'd like to provide a more detailed outlook on our business segments and our future growth drivers. Let's start with NARCAN. We work relentlessly to help save lives through our efforts to increase access and awareness to Naloxone, while helping to maintain affordability for Narcan four milligrams and Cloroxidil eight milligrams. We are closely following the positive impact that Narcan nasal spray is having on opioid overdose deaths.

Joseph Papa
Joseph Papa
President, CEO & Director at Emergent BioSolutions

Third party sources have now confirmed the association between the year over year decline in overdose deaths and the over the counter availability of NARCAN starting in the 2023. We know there are a variety of factors that play into this tremendous reduction, but we are proud to be a contributor to help save lives. During our first quarter earnings call, we experienced some short term and one time headwinds in demand for NARCAN. I want to reiterate that NARCAN volumes grew this quarter by 50% versus the 2025, indicating we believe these one off events now be behind us. Our leadership in the public interest channel remains strong.

Joseph Papa
Joseph Papa
President, CEO & Director at Emergent BioSolutions

We have several new and returning customers, which we believe is driven by our market leading solutions and our competitive pricing. On the retail side, we gained additional visibility through our participation in the Amazon Prime Day in July and our business to business efforts are showing progress as we added several new partners this quarter. We have also fully integrated Clock Saddle nasal spray and new convenience kits in our Narcan Direct distribution platform. This offering makes it easier for our customers to need life saving solutions for their communities and patients. Notably just recently, Cloxado gained preferred status on the Humana Medicare Part D formulary, giving us access to approximately an additional 5,800,000 lives.

Joseph Papa
Joseph Papa
President, CEO & Director at Emergent BioSolutions

In May, we announced a three year agreement valued at approximately $65,000,000 with the province of Ontario to supply our life saving NARCAN treatments. Orders have already begun. Additionally, we supply NARCAN to the Royal Canadian Mounted Police who cover the G7 Leaders Summit in Canada. This provides us even more visibility for our products in the Canadian market. Examples like these further illustrate the importance of our products to help save lives.

Joseph Papa
Joseph Papa
President, CEO & Director at Emergent BioSolutions

Finally, just last month, the U. S. House of Representatives placed a carton of Naloxone next to every AED or defibrillator located in its buildings, providing direct access to first responders to help anyone experiencing an opioid overdose. This effort was led by Republican representative Buddy Carter of Georgia, who is a supporter of this public health issue. Moving to slide 19, our MCM business benefits from strong international and congressional bipartisan support, and there are multiple favorable developments that I want to highlight.

Joseph Papa
Joseph Papa
President, CEO & Director at Emergent BioSolutions

First, on June 25 at the NATO Summit, member nations reached the decision to raise defense spending from 2% to 5% of GDP by 02/1935, allocating 3.5% towards core military activities and 1.5% towards broader defense related priorities. This shift unlocks an estimated 2,500,000,000,000 in new funding over the next decade and Zika loves a sustained increased demand for advanced medical countermeasures. Emergent is already active in international markets, supplying allied governments with critical biodefense solutions. We believe this incremental investment in national defense bodes very favorably for our top line growth. Second, in June 2025, the Health Emergency Preparedness Response Authority, or HERA, held an important industry day in Brussels.

Joseph Papa
Joseph Papa
President, CEO & Director at Emergent BioSolutions

This event represents yet another example of the EU prioritization of medical countermeasures on a global scale. Now, let us discuss our recent contract awards. We announced a $62,400,000 contract modification for BAT, which was followed by a $51,900,000 contract modification for VIG, our smallpox preparedness. Importantly, year to date, we have already secured seven revenue generating contract modifications. And based on our continued dialogue with the U.

Joseph Papa
Joseph Papa
President, CEO & Director at Emergent BioSolutions

S. Government, we are still expecting contracts for additional products that will be executed in the second half of the year, An area that we believe sets emergent apart, yet receives very little attention, is that we not only supply and help the government stockpile medical countermeasures, but we also service the quality and stability of those products after the initial sale. These services provide us with an ongoing revenue stream. Turning now to our efforts in the global outbreak and unmet need against MPOXX, we continue to engage with the World Health Organization on an emergency use listing for ACAM2000 vaccine, as well as with key African country leaders to offer our assistance with the MPOXX outbreak. We recently announced a new publication in a peer reviewed journal, Expert Review of Anti Infective Therapy, which reviewed our tenbexa or BCV as a potential antiviral treatment for MPOXX.

Joseph Papa
Joseph Papa
President, CEO & Director at Emergent BioSolutions

The panther led MOSA trial to evaluate BCV for MPOXX has been enrolling patients in the Democratic Republic Of Congo since January, and as mentioned in my earlier comments, this is critical work to understand and evaluate the potential line extension for the TIMBEXA product. On slide 20, we outlined our outlook on future growth and cash deployment. Rich touched on the capital allocations in his remarks, but I'd like to underscore our plan, which is to invest the cash we are generating from our business into three growth tracks. Number one is to invest in new government collaborations for line extensions and new products within our existing R and D pipeline. Number two is for continued international growth investments.

Joseph Papa
Joseph Papa
President, CEO & Director at Emergent BioSolutions

And number three is to look externally to identify value creating programs that align strategically with our current business model and capabilities. At the beginning of 2025, we took two steps towards pipeline development. First, our investment agreement to support the research infrastructure development expansion of Swiss Rockets, the parent company of our Rocketbank venture. Next, we acquired exclusive commercial rights to descript Cloxidyl nasal spray in The US and Canada as an added tool to fight the opioid crisis. Finally, our strong cash flow and liquidity position continue to enable us to explore and expand investment opportunities into attractive areas and create shareholder value.

Joseph Papa
Joseph Papa
President, CEO & Director at Emergent BioSolutions

In closing on slide 21, we have outperformed our top line guidance in the second quarter. We expect a strong second half of the year and are narrowing the 2025 revenue range to $765,000,000 to $835,000,000 and reaching the low end and midpoint for adjusted EBITDA guidance to 175,000,000 to $200,000,000 As we continue to see positive indicators that we remain on track to execute our multi year turnaround plan. Looking at the external environment, we firmly believe that businesses such as ours are extremely valuable in an increasingly dangerous workplace. This reinforces our confidence that we are executing a strategic multi year turnaround plan that is focused on generating value for our shareholders. As we transform, we will plan to operate with the highest standards of quality, ethics, compliance in all that we do.

Joseph Papa
Joseph Papa
President, CEO & Director at Emergent BioSolutions

With that, operator, I look forward to taking additional questions. Please open up the line for questions, operator. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Jessica Fye of JPMorgan. Please go ahead, Jessica.

Jessica Fye
Jessica Fye
MD & Equity Research Analyst - Biotechnology at JP Morgan

Hey, guys. Good evening. Thanks for taking our questions. I have a few on NARCAN. So first, you mentioned some strategic pricing actions.

Jessica Fye
Jessica Fye
MD & Equity Research Analyst - Biotechnology at JP Morgan

Can you elaborate on when that happened and what the average price of NARCAN is now? Second, I think you said the naloxone market will grow low to mid single digits. Is that volume or revenue? And third, how do you think about the ability to maintain your current market share? And then just a housekeeping question on SG and A.

Jessica Fye
Jessica Fye
MD & Equity Research Analyst - Biotechnology at JP Morgan

It looks like that came in nicely below our forecast this quarter. Is that 2Q SG and A number a good run rate for the rest of 2025? Thank you.

Joseph Papa
Joseph Papa
President, CEO & Director at Emergent BioSolutions

Okay. I'm going try to get all of these, Jessica, but if I miss any, please let me know. On the NARCAN pricing actions, what we're really referring to are some of the pricing actions that have occurred over the last twelve months. Over the last several months, NARCAN pricing has been relatively stable over the last several months. So we feel that this is a pretty stable pricing environment right now.

Joseph Papa
Joseph Papa
President, CEO & Director at Emergent BioSolutions

Obviously things could change, but right now we see really pricing stability in the timing of what we're seeing. As it relates to the market growth for naloxone, you're absolutely correct. We do expect low to mid single digit growth rates for the naloxone market. And our view on this is it's done, it's gonna be for a couple different factors. Number one, unfortunately there's still eighty thousand people a year dying because of opioid overdoses, so we still believe that this is a very pressing problem.

Joseph Papa
Joseph Papa
President, CEO & Director at Emergent BioSolutions

And at least the data that we see, as I mentioned some of the third party approved sources, really suggests that the availability of OTC NARCAN has made a difference in the last, or since the 2023. So we're seeing the trend lines continue to go down, but this is no time to stop, and we expect that we'll still have a problem out there that people will invest behind to stop the problem. Also, the availability of the litigation settlement funds from the large pharma companies that had opioids, and that availability of those funds over the next ten years we also think will be an important growth factor for helping to grow the market and save more lives based on, we've seen the evidence of saving lives from some of the third party proof sources, and now we have some additional capacity based on the settlement funds to help fund the opioid overdose treatments like the NARC end product, but also obviously for education. So we do think that's going to be an important part. The last part you asked about was maintaining market share.

Joseph Papa
Joseph Papa
President, CEO & Director at Emergent BioSolutions

And as I said, I think we feel very comfortable. We still are the majority share player in this marketplace. This market is much different than a market like a generic market where one could lose a significant amount of share in the first six to twelve months. We've been holding on to our share, and we expect that we will continue to be the market leader as we develop new programs, new line extensions. We have the CLOG Sotto as part of our program, and then importantly we're making it easier to do business with us through our NARCAN direct programs, while we always seek to maintain competitive pricing.

Joseph Papa
Joseph Papa
President, CEO & Director at Emergent BioSolutions

We don't match, but we have competitive pricing. So we think those are the reasons why we've been able to hold onto share and expect to hold onto share in the future. I think you wanted to ask also about Q2 run rate, Rick.

Richard Lindahl
Richard Lindahl
EVP, CFO & Treasurer at Emergent BioSolutions

Yeah, hi Jessica, thanks for the question. I would say, yeah, I think it's a pretty decent run rate for the rest of the year, plusminus maybe 5%, something like that.

Jessica Fye
Jessica Fye
MD & Equity Research Analyst - Biotechnology at JP Morgan

And just, sorry, coming back on the naloxone market growth, low to mid single digits, was that volume of the market or overall market revenue?

Joseph Papa
Joseph Papa
President, CEO & Director at Emergent BioSolutions

So we are referring mostly to the volume of the market, market to be clear, but as long as pricing stays relatively stable it should translate to that, but obviously we're going to keep a close eye on what's happening with the pricing. But as I said, over the last several months naloxone and NARCAN pricing has been relatively stable.

Jessica Fye
Jessica Fye
MD & Equity Research Analyst - Biotechnology at JP Morgan

Great, thank you.

Joseph Papa
Joseph Papa
President, CEO & Director at Emergent BioSolutions

Thank you for the questions. Operator, next question.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Raghuram Selvaraju of H. C. Wainwright and Company. Please go ahead, Raghuram.

Raghuram Selvaraju
MD - Healthcare Equity Research at H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC

Hi, this is Eduardo on for Ram. Just a quick question, maybe talk a little bit about NARCAN. Have you seen is the market demand have you seen any changes given the recent influence of some of the new synthetic opioid like abuse agents like these niatazines and how they're even stronger than fentanyl. Are you guys seeing any responses from the public health officials in response to that?

Joseph Papa
Joseph Papa
President, CEO & Director at Emergent BioSolutions

Yeah, well we've obviously been following this very closely. We have a way to continue to look at what's happening from the reports, obviously following the presses, I'm sure you have as well. What I would say is that we're obviously concerned about this, and we believe because of the strength of these products, even more reason to have NARCAN available for every household, because you just never know when some problem's gonna happen. And obviously we hope that no one overdoses on opioids, but fortunately it's happening. So we want to make sure that NARCAN's available to help these patients and get to a point where they can get treatment, they can survive, rather than unfortunately not having access to NARCAN. And unfortunately time goes very quickly, but they don't have the product on board, they can run the opioid overdose problem. So we're seeking to increase access to NARCAN and all the naloxone products for that matter. We believe that's an important initiative, and we're working diligently with everybody. I think we won't rest until we feel that NARCAN's available in every first aid kit, because we believe that's the kind of situation unfortunately we find ourselves in, and NARCAN is a very cost effective way to save lives, and unfortunately there's still a lot of people dying.

Joseph Papa
Joseph Papa
President, CEO & Director at Emergent BioSolutions

So we're working on making NARCAN more accessible, because we passionately believe it will save lives.

Raghuram Selvaraju
MD - Healthcare Equity Research at H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC

Got it. That's helpful. And switching over to MCM, do you have any updated thoughts about the competitive landscape for smallpox antiviral specifically and the potential for bringing sedative vapour use, especially in some of the recent findings about the limitations of tecobirumab?

Joseph Papa
Joseph Papa
President, CEO & Director at Emergent BioSolutions

Sure. So we're tracking that as well. We obviously, as I mentioned in the comments, we are initiating working with Panther to do clinical trials to show the effectiveness of our Camdexa product. We do believe that getting that clinical trial data would be very beneficial to us. We think this is an opportunity.

Joseph Papa
Joseph Papa
President, CEO & Director at Emergent BioSolutions

Tambexxa is a very potent antiviral, and we look forward to getting some additional data on it. Obviously we are working closely with BARDA, like everybody in the U. S. Government, Department of Defense, Strategic National Stockpile, and our plans for Tambexa, as well as the African countries getting some additional clinical work. So I don't know if I want to say much more about our competition other than saying we are strong believers in the power of the Thembexa product to help patients.

Joseph Papa
Joseph Papa
President, CEO & Director at Emergent BioSolutions

We're out getting some additional data right now in Africa. And we believe that will be very beneficial for all patients as we show the outcomes from Thembexa. So we're working very hard today on it. I look forward to have more to say tomorrow about what that means, not just for MPOXX, but also for the implications for smallpox. So we'll just have more to say about that in our clinical trials and our additional discussions with the US government.

Joseph Papa
Joseph Papa
President, CEO & Director at Emergent BioSolutions

But US government has an interest in what we're doing, and they're looking to talk more about what we're doing for the future. The good news is that US government's been very open to meeting with us. We have a regular meeting with BARDA, Strategic National Stockpile Department of Defense, on a regular quarterly basis at the highest levels of their organizations to ensure that we're aligned with what our expectations are, what they are our expectations. We'll just have more to say about that as we get more data.

Raghuram Selvaraju
MD - Healthcare Equity Research at H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC

Got it, thanks. And one final one in the MCM space. Just curious if you have any additional contract modifications you expect in the '5, and for which specific biodefense preparedness programs?

Joseph Papa
Joseph Papa
President, CEO & Director at Emergent BioSolutions

The easy answer is yes. We do expect to have additional contract modifications, revenue generating contract modifications in the 2025. I probably don't want to make specific comments on any individual products, but I think the fact that we already had seven year to date, I think through the first half of the year suggests that certainly likely we'll get some additional contract modifications during the second half of the year, and that is our expectation. I probably don't want go into any more details.

Richard Lindahl
Richard Lindahl
EVP, CFO & Treasurer at Emergent BioSolutions

Yeah, I mean, the only thing I would add is I think we have line of sight to some of these things, and that's incorporated into the guidance that we provided.

Raghuram Selvaraju
MD - Healthcare Equity Research at H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC

Got it, that's really helpful. Thanks for taking the questions.

Operator

Thank you. I would now like to turn the conference back to Joe Poppel for closing remarks. Sir?

Joseph Papa
Joseph Papa
President, CEO & Director at Emergent BioSolutions

Well, thank you, operator. Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. I think, as you can hopefully tell, our team is very excited about our mission to protect and save lives, and these future growth driver opportunities that we see in front of us. As I said, it's an increasingly dangerous world, and we believe very much in our ability to help reduce that risk through our medical countermeasures. And importantly, we believe that our Narcan product and Glaxada are well positioned to save people's lives from opioid overdoses.

Joseph Papa
Joseph Papa
President, CEO & Director at Emergent BioSolutions

So look to us and have more to say about that in the future. And certainly thank you for all your attention today, and I hope you certainly look at some of the financials we put out and our ability to significantly impact our financial metrics over the last twelve months, you look at everything, cash generation, EBITDA, operating expenses, I think they've all moved in the right direction. So thanks again for joining us today, Have a great day.

Operator

Thank you all. And with that, ladies and gentlemen, we now conclude the call. Thank you for participation. Please note an archived version of today's webcast as well as a PDF version of the slides used today's call will be available later today and accessible through the investors landing page on the company's website. Thank you you again.

Operator

We look forward to speaking with you all in the future. Goodbye.

Executives
Analysts
    • Joseph Papa
      President, CEO & Director at Emergent BioSolutions
    • Jessica Fye
      MD & Equity Research Analyst - Biotechnology at JP Morgan
    • Raghuram Selvaraju
      MD - Healthcare Equity Research at H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC
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