Ferroglobe Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
August 6, 2025

Key Takeaways

  • Negative Sentiment: Due to ongoing uncertainty around global trade tariffs and safeguards, management is withdrawing its 2025 guidance until it gains greater clarity.
  • Positive Sentiment: In Q2, Ferroglobe achieved a $22 million positive adjusted EBITDA on 26% revenue growth and 27% volume growth, marking a strong operational rebound.
  • Negative Sentiment: European silicon metal prices fell by approximately 20% in one month due to aggressive, low‐priced Chinese imports that heavily pressured local producers.
  • Positive Sentiment: U.S. antidumping and countervailing duties on imports contributed to the highest ferrosilicon sales volume in eight quarters, improving domestic market dynamics.
  • Positive Sentiment: Looking ahead, expected EU safeguard measures, U.S. tariff actions and global supply curtailments are anticipated to create a stronger 2026 market environment.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Ferroglobe Q2 2025
00:00 / 00:00

There are 8 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Ferroglobe's Second Quarter twenty twenty five Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session and instructions will be given at that time. As a reminder, this conference call may be recorded. I would now like to hand the call over to Alex Rotterdam, Ferroglobe's Vice President of Investor Relations.

Operator

You may begin.

Speaker 1

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Ferroglobe's Second Quarter twenty twenty five Conference Call. Joining me today are Marco Levi, our Chief Executive Officer and Beatrice Garcia Cos, our Chief Financial Officer. Before we get started with some prepared remarks, I'm going to read a brief statement. Please turn to Slide two at this time. Statements made by management during this conference call that are forward looking are based on current expectations.

Speaker 1

Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward looking statements can be found in Ferroglobe's most recent SEC filings and exhibits to those filings, which are available on our website at ferroglobe.com. In addition, this discussion includes references to EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted gross debt, adjusted net debt and adjusted diluted earnings per share, among other non IFRS measures. Reconciliation of non IFRS measures may be found in our most recent SEC filings. Before I turn the call over to Marco Levy, our Chief Executive Officer, I want to announce that we'll be participating in the Seaport Virtual Conference on August and the IDEAS Midwest Conference in Chicago on August 27. We hope to see you there.

Speaker 1

Marco?

Speaker 2

Thank you, Alex, and thank you all for joining us today. We appreciate your continued interest in Ferroglobe. There is a rapidly evolving market environment, particularly on the trade front, resulting in elevated uncertainty and limited visibility around global trade policy and regulatory developments. This was particularly evident as it relates to global tariffs, safeguards and trade measures both in Europe and in The U. S, adding complexity to an already challenging market environment.

Speaker 2

Despite these headwinds, we are pleased with the recent progress as evidenced by the newly agreed trade framework between The US and EU, signaling a shift toward greater clarity and cooperation. This development is expected to reduce disruptions and provide improved visibility across global market. As these measures take effect, we are optimistic that the uncertainties will be resolved in the near term, creating a stronger and more stable market environment heading into 2026. However, given the current uncertainty and limited visibility of market dynamics, trade measures and tariff structures, we believe that it is prudent to withdraw our 2025 guidance at this time. We will revisit it once we have greater clarity on these key matters.

Speaker 2

I'll now walk through several key developments and uncertainties, many of which we believe will ultimately support a strong outlook for our industry. As discussed previously, European Commission launched a safeguard investigation last December into silicon metal, silicon based alloys and manganese alloys, a significant and necessary step to address unfair trade practices. The preliminary decision, which was initially expected in May, has not been officially announced. At this time, we don't know what measures will be adopted or what the timing will be. As a result of delays, we believe that Ferroglobe will benefit from these measures in 2026.

Speaker 2

As Chairman of Aerohliage, I am actively engaged with its industry participants, EU member states and other stakeholders to advocate for a positive outcome to ensure necessary protections for our industry. Our products play an essential role in many key industries such as aluminum, chemicals, steel, solar, microchips, and most critically defense. With a final EU decision due by the November, we are optimistic that the strategic importance of our industry will result in a favorable outcome. The final implementation of safeguards requires approval from at least 15 of the 27 EU member states and by states representing at least 65% of the population. Adding to the uncertainty are trade tensions involving The United States.

Speaker 2

While a key preliminary trade deal was reached with EU, many others remain undecided. One of the key US trade negotiations is with Canada, which is an important supplier of aluminum and steel to The United States. There is a lack of clarity regarding how and when the trade policies would be finalized, which affects our business and overall global trade. In addition, we are waiting for the outcome of The US silicon metal trade case, which was filed in April with the preliminary countervailing duties decision expected in late September, an antidumping decision expected two months later in late November. The countries investigated are Angola, Australia, Alaskan, Norway and Thailand.

Speaker 2

One of the key developments this quarter was a notable decline in European silicon metal prices, which was driven by a substantial increase in imports from China. These aggressively low priced imports have placed considerable pressure on the market where EU 27 producers market share has dropped from 40% just few years ago to approximately 15% today. This surge in imports is not only undermining local producers, but also destabilizing pricing across the region. As a result, silicon metal indexes in Europe have declined by approximately 20% in just the past month. This sharp drop has created a considerable market disruption, making visibility into future supply and pricing very difficult.

Speaker 2

While macro conditions remain challenging and unpredictable, we continue to focus on things that we can control and manage the business with discipline, maintaining operational efficiency and a strong focus on discretionary cost control. Our actions combined with our operational excellence enabled us to deliver positive adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter. At the same time, we remain committed to returning capital to shareholders. In the second quarter, we purchased 600,000 shares for $2,000,000 and paid 2,600,000 in dividends. Looking ahead to 2026, we see several positive developments on the horizon that are expected to significantly enhance our performance.

Speaker 2

First, we are beginning to see tangible benefits in The U. S. Market from the antidumping and countervailing duties imposed last year on ferrosilicon imports from Russia, Kazakhstan, Brazil and Malaysia. Additionally, newly announced tariffs targeting major Asian ferrosilicon importers to The U. S.

Speaker 2

Like Vietnam and Malaysia, plus India, would be imposed with minimum tariffs ranging from 20% to 40% along with any applicable antidumping duties. Brazil's ferrosilicon producers by comparison face 50% tariffs plus both antidumping and countervailing duties. These tariffs should further improve the market dynamics in The U. S. In fact, during the second quarter, we recorded the highest volume of ferrosilicon sales in the past eight quarters, a clear indication of how The U.

Speaker 2

S. Trade actions are supporting domestic producers. We expect this trend to continue in the coming quarters. Another reason for the positive outlook for 2026 is the expected benefit from EU safeguard measures as previously mentioned. Besides these trade related events, there are additional encouraging macro developments anticipated to benefit Ferroglobe.

Speaker 2

Production curtailments of silicon metal are taking place in China, Europe and Brazil, indicating that the current price level is unsustainable. We are optimistic that these actions will help stabilize the market and reverse the recent price trend. Another important factor for the coming month is that NATO is committed to increasing defense related spending substantially, which is expected to bolster the steel and aluminum industries. Importantly, the NATO countries are in our key markets, Europe and North America. In addition, Germany has committed to investing more than $500,000,000,000 in its infrastructure.

Speaker 2

More specific to Ferroglobe, our operational flexibility to optimize production enables us to better match the market needs. Recently, we switched two silicon metal furnaces to ferrosilicon, one in The U. S. And one in Europe due to better economics. This allows us to increase ferrosilicon production by approximately 35,000 to 40,000 tons annually.

Speaker 2

To reiterate our strategic advantage, being a local company with a vertical supply chain integration positions us well to take advantage of any types or trade restrictions in U. S. Or Europe. Ferroglobe reached an important milestone on June 30 by joining the Russell two thousand and three thousand indexes. This increases our visibility among institutional investors and improves trading liquidity, delivering sustainable value to our shareholders.

Speaker 2

Next slide, please. As we anticipated on our last earnings call, the second quarter showed substantial improvement in our performance with a 27% increase in volumes and a 26% increase in revenue. Our adjusted EBITDA rebounded to a positive $22,000,000 from a loss in the first quarter, while remaining net cash positive. Next slide please. Moving to our segment update, I'll start with silicon metal on Slide five.

Speaker 2

While shipments increased substantially over the first quarter, Q2 volumes were still impacted by weak demand and low priced silicon metal imports from China into The EU. Overall, volumes improved 23% over the prior quarter, mainly as a result of our contract structure due to the restart of our French operation at the April. The main driver of this predatory import was the collapse of the polysilicon market in Asia, which continues into the third quarter. Polysilicon prices have recovered from their lows, but remain well below earlier levels. Until the Asian polysilicon market recovers further or relevant sakers become effective, silicon metal imports from China to The EU are likely to continue.

Speaker 2

The chemical sector weakness persists as aggressive silhouettes in imports have resulted in oversupply in The U. S. And Europe. Our increased focus on the aluminum segment is yielding positive results on volumes. The impact of Chinese imports was pronounced in Europe with index prices declining 33% from €2,450 to €50 in the second quarter.

Speaker 2

At the same time, The U. S. Index increased by 3%. Next slide, please. The silicon based alloys market also showed a robust volume increase in the second quarter.

Speaker 2

We were 24% jump in overall volumes. The main reason for the increase was the restart of our French operations, followed by improved demand in The U. S, which was helped by the phased trade decision against Russia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia and Brazil. The second quarter was the strongest shipment quarter in three years with The U. S.

Speaker 2

Volumes by 436%, respectively, over the first quarter. While shipments were up across our footprint, the pricing was a tale of two markets. In The U. S, the demand was driven by higher steel production and ferrocidicontrade decision, which bolstered the index price by 10% to $1.26 per pound. In contrast, the European prices declined by 8%, primarily due to weakness in the regional steel production.

Speaker 2

We expect EU market to begin improving in 2026 for both volumes and prices as the safeguards decision becomes effective. Next slide, please. Our manganese segment was our strongest segment with volume increasing 31% over the first quarter. This was our highest shipment volume quarter in three years. Part of the improvement over Q1 was the restart of French operations and delayed shipments carried over from Q1 due to low manganese ore inventories.

Speaker 2

Manganese alloy index prices declined in the second quarter by 611%, respectively, for ferromanganese and silicon manganese. The outlook for manganese demand remains strong, and we expect a robust performance from this segment in the coming quarters, further supported by potential safeguards, which could serve as a catalyst for accelerated growth. Now I would like to turn the call over to Beatriz Garcia Cos, our Chief Financial Officer, to review the financial results in more detail. Beatrice?

Speaker 3

Thank you, Marco. Please turn to Slide nine for a review of the income statement. Sales increased 26% in the second quarter to $387,000,000 while raw material cost increased only 6%, driving significant improvement in margin with raw material as a percentage of sales, declining to 66% from 78% in the previous quarter. This improvement reflects better fixed cost absorption as production ramp up, particularly in France, and also lower energy costs. Top line growth was driven by a 27% increase in volumes across all product categories, along with higher average selling prices, primarily in the manganese based alloys segment, which was up 9%.

Speaker 3

The increase in volumes was primarily attributable to the restart of our French operations. Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 improved substantially, increasing to $22,000,000 versus a loss of $27,000,000 in Q1, an improvement of $48,000,000 Adjusted EBITDA margin in the second quarter was 6%. The margin increase was largely cost driven, supported by both volume and price improvements. Next slide, please. Silicon Metal revenue increased to $130,000,000 in the second quarter, up 24% over Q1.

Speaker 3

The increase was driven by a 23% increase in shipments, combined with a 1% increase in average selling prices. Volume gains were strongest in EMEA, supported by the restart of our French operations. Adjusted EBITDA for Silicon Metal grew from $15,000,000 loss in Q1 to a $7,000,000 gain in Q2, with margins improving to 5%, up from negative 50% in the first quarter. This primarily reflects cost improvement resulting from stronger production levels, lower energy costs and better fixed cost absorption. Next slide, please.

Speaker 3

Silicon based alloys revenue rose 23% to $112,000,000 supported by a 24% increase in shipments. Pricing was slightly lower, down 1% versus the prior quarter. Adjusted EBITDA increased significantly from $2,000,000 in Q1 to July in Q2, tripling quarter over quarter. Margins expanded from 3% to 6%, driven by improved fixed cost absorption, resulting from a significant increase in production volumes as a result of our French operations. Next slide, please.

Speaker 3

Manganese based alloys posted the strongest improvement with revenue up 43% to $106,000,000 This was driven by a 31% increase in volumes combined with a 9% increase in average selling prices. Adjusted EBITDA improved from a $6,000,000 loss to a profit of $17,000,000 with margins reaching 16%. These gains were fueled by higher throughput, improved cost absorption and contributed from the resumed freight operations, partially offset by the higher cost of manganese ore. Next slide, please. During the second quarter, we generated $16,000,000 in operating cash flow, reflecting a working capital release of $14,000,000 Please note that the difference in working capital between cash flow and balance sheet is the decline or depreciation in the US dollar.

Speaker 3

In addition, we collected a $7,000,000 energy rebate related to our 2025 energy contract and paid $12,000,000 of income taxes. Capital expenditures totaled $60,000,000 in Q2, up slightly from the prior quarter. Despite the tough market conditions, our free cash flow for the second quarter was neutral. Next slide, please. During the second quarter, we preserved a strong balance sheet while maintaining our dividend and continuing our share repurchase program.

Speaker 3

During the quarter, we repurchased 600,000 shares at an average price of $3.31 for a total of $2,000,000 Since initiating share buybacks in the 2024, we have repurchased a total of 1,900,000 shares for approximately $7,000,000. We will continue to do so opportunistically. We also made an additional $4,000,000 investment in Coshell, bringing our total to $10,000,000 to support the 60 amp pilot plant. We remained net cash positive at the end of the quarter with a balance of $10,000,000 versus $19,000,000 at the end of the first quarter. Adjusted gross debt at the end of the second quarter was $125,000,000 up from $110,000,000 in the prior quarter.

Speaker 3

In addition, in June, we made the final CEPI loan principal prepayment of $80,000,000 Our year to date CapEx was $30,000,000 At this time, I will turn the call back to Marco.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Beatriz. Before opening the call to Q and A, I'd like to provide key takeaways from today's presentation on Slide 15. First, due to increased uncertainty in the market, particularly around trade actions and volatile pricing in Europe, we are withdrawing our annual guidance. Visibility remains limited and we believe this is the most prudent course of action until we have a greater clarity. However, we expect the ongoing EU safer decision to reduce price pressure from imports, paving the way for robust market conditions in 2026.

Speaker 2

In The U. S, where we have seen a tangible improvement in the ferrosilicon market, we expect trade policies and anti damping actions to improve the market further. Despite some external headwinds, we continue to navigate the environment effectively, as highlighted by our second quarter adjusted EBITDA of $22,000,000 Our operational discipline, cost control and strong balance sheet, along with our flexible global footprint position us well to manage through near term volatility. Looking ahead, we are optimistic about 2026 and expect meaningful tailwinds from trade decisions in both US and Europe, along with early signs of supply curtailments. These developments should significantly improve the operating environment next year.

Speaker 2

Operator, we are ready for questions.

Speaker 4

Thank you. We will now take the first question from the line of Martin Englert from Seaport Research Partners. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hello. Good day, everyone. Wanted to quickly touch on why I know the annual EBITDA guide was withdrawn. Do you have any visibility wherein you can speak to any forward looking metrics like price, volume, costs, or broader broader qualitative views on the second half of this year for the company?

Speaker 6

Well, at this stage, Martin look. Thank you for the question. At at this stage, like we said, we are in in a extreme uncertain environment, like I said in in in my speech. Uncertainty on overall global trade tariffs, but also tariffs related to to our business, right, both in terms of safe works and antidumping. The the big emerging factor in the second quarter has been the massive import of silicon metal from from China at extremely low prices.

Speaker 6

We are talking about $1,112,100 dollars import price. You have to add duties and and transportation. So we have faced market prices of $141,600 euros per ton that that we could not simply match. And by the way, it's not only for the globe. It's most of the industry that cannot match these prices.

Speaker 6

This is why we keep on hearing about production curtailments in Ireland, in Germany, in Brazil, and also China because I think at at this price import price level, basically, you get to the cash cost of the best Chinese producers. So also most of the Chinese players lose money at this level. So as a consequence, you know, waiting for more clear decisions is very difficult to project volume and prices for the rest of the year. And and from there, our suffered decision to withdraw the guidance for the rest of the year. K.

Speaker 6

Do

Speaker 5

you feel like there's any risk that EBITDA could revert negative again before the end of the year, or is that just unknown right now?

Speaker 6

Well, we don't we don't know the the amount of EBITDA, but we know that we have lose deliver positive EBITDA. Again, leaving the forecast is impossible due to the current situations.

Speaker 5

Okay. Understood. Appreciate that the visibility is challenged out there because of the tariffs. Kind of along those lines with US tariffs, can you touch on any exposure you might have here in the supply chain, meaning on the cost side of the business and implications for your facilities, and also how it's impacted Becancour. Yeah.

Speaker 6

Apart from Becancour, Martin, at this point in time, Becancour is not impacted because silicon metal imports from Canada to US are not impacted at this stage with any trade measure. Talking about critical raw materials, as you know, we are we are fully back integrated materials in US, and we don't have any specific problem in Europe. We have to face some we have to make some corrective actions on small raw materials like specific rare earths, but we have been solving the problem. So this has not been impacting overall our our supply chain at this at this stage.

Speaker 5

Can you remind us of what specific rare earth exposure you might have?

Speaker 6

Well, a lot depends on on on the founder formulation, but we are talking about bismuth, germanium, tellurium, mainly these three products. Then, of course, we have to see what happens with with magnesium because the major producer of magnesium, guess what is, is China. But at the moment, we have been able to to to secure the supply. By the way, magnesium is not right.

Speaker 5

Alright. I appreciate the detail. Good luck. Thank you.

Speaker 6

Thank you, Martin. Thank you, Martin.

Speaker 4

Thank you. We will now take the next question from the line of Nick Jall from B. Riley Securities. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone. My first question on the EU safeguards, it's encouraging to hear of the progress thus far. Should we have a price floor or a minimum import price in mind? Or how should we think about overall structure?

Speaker 7

And then I was curious if you could speak to how volumes could respond in each of your product categories, and then any any any clarifying points on timing when this could, you know, really be implemented? Thank you.

Speaker 6

Okay. First of all, we don't know what is included in the decision of the European community. There have been a lot of leaks, speculations on the product cover and on on on the mechanism to protect our industry in Europe, but there is no no final decision. And as a consequence, I I don't want to speculate on that. I just want to confirm that we keep on asking for safeguards covering our complete product mix, silicon metal, manganese alloys, calcium silicon, and ferrosilicon and foundry.

Speaker 6

And we are we expect the decision, the preliminary decision on August 1819, and the final decision on November 20. Speculating now on on the impact, I think it's it's not a good exercise at this stage, but but I want what I want to what I want to underline is that we are still we are still engaged with the European community on working on on on their final on their final decision, this makes us feel rather optimistic about having an outcome, which outcome we will see, and we will talk at the right time.

Speaker 7

Fair enough. Well, thanks for that color, Marco. I guess maybe a follow-up to that. I mean, as we look across your three main product categories, which of your assets in Europe should we think about as best positioned to respond with higher volumes, you know, assuming a favorable outcome in the safeguards?

Speaker 6

Yeah. Yeah. You know, there there was a I want I want to remind you that the overall safeguard initiative is related to restore local supply of critical and strategic raw materials at a rate of maximum 40%. So 60% will still be imported. This is a critical thing.

Speaker 6

Talking about our plans, of course, in particular, the silicon metal plant Quran had a much higher rate starting from Savon in in in Spain, moving to Maurice, Anglophore, and Le Clabaud in France. We have converted most of lockdown production already to to ferrosilicon. The other plants are either manganese plants or or foundry plants. Manganese is running well volume wise. Then when you move, you know, safeguard Europe may may impact also to a certain extent our production of founder products in South Africa.

Speaker 6

But at this stage, we are not operating any smelting facility in South Africa.

Speaker 7

That's that's helpful. Maybe just on the more on The US side. I mean, you mentioned switching some furnaces from silicon metal to ferrosilicon, and apologies if I missed it. But, you know, what's the overall volume impact? And any color on what the potential impact to EBITDA could be at current prices?

Speaker 6

Well, the yes. We have switched to water in Ohio from from silicon metal to ferrosilicon due to the increased demand of ferrosilicon in in The US, and we have switched one of the large furnaces in Rodan from silicon metal to ferrosilicon. Right? So the now the The US, the the the margin is supported by by the the price restoration in the second quarter at about 10%. So it's positively EBITDA while while the decision, some of them is related to market opportunities in ferrosilicon due to our advantage cost position in France versus lack of business in in the silicon metal arena.

Speaker 7

Thank you for that. And then one more if I could. You you you did have an update on your Coorshell investment, and and apologies if I missed it there. But is there anything to highlight from a safeguard or trade case perspective that would ultimately benefit Coorshell, you know, or or silicon rich anode technology more more broadly? Thank you.

Speaker 6

Yeah. Yes. Well, first of all, you know, you you you have to consider that that very high percentage, ultra high percentage of graphite is comes from China. So there is a natural positive push toward replacing graphite with silicon. As mentioned in our pitch, we we have increased our participation in in in core shell.

Speaker 6

And during the second quarter, the new pilot plant started operating very smoothly. The first cells were produced, and and the first result in cycle efficiency are simply outstanding. And so we are in the in the process of assembling the first cells to to major OEMs in The United States and and Europe.

Speaker 7

Guys, thank you so much for the update today, and continue best of luck.

Speaker 6

Thank you. Thank Thank

Speaker 4

you. There are no further questions at this time. I would like to hand back over to Marco Levi for closing remarks.

Speaker 6

To all of you, thank you again for your participation. We look forward to updating you on the next call in November. Have a great day.

Speaker 4

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may

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