Pampa Energia Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
August 7, 2025

Key Takeaways

  • Positive Sentiment: Rincón de Aranda production ramped up with four online pads averaging 5,300 bpd in Q2 (8,800 bpd by June), targeting 20,000 bpd by year-end and 45,000 bpd by 2027.
  • Negative Sentiment: Q2 adjusted EBITDA fell 17% YoY to $249 million, pressured by softer gas sales, lower petchem prices and higher operating expenses despite new wind farm contributions.
  • Negative Sentiment: CapEx surged 134% YoY to $354 million (75% into Rincón de Aranda), driving a free cash flow outflow of $307 million in the quarter.
  • Positive Sentiment: A $140 million liability management deal extended 2029 notes to 2034 at Pampa’s lowest ever spread, reducing gross debt by 23% since Dec 2024 and maintaining net leverage at 1.1×.
  • Positive Sentiment: Power segment EBITDA rose 5% YoY to $112 million, supported by the new 140 MW PP6 wind farm and higher spot prices, with 70% of segment EBITDA under capacity payments.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Pampa Energia Q2 2025
00:00 / 00:00

There are 5 speakers on the call.

Operator

Part of twenty twenty five Results Video Conference. We would like to inform you that this event is being recorded. All participants will be in listen only mode during the presentation. After the company's remarks, there will be a Q and A session. Questions can only be sent in writing through Zoom.

Operator

Should any participant need assistance, please send us a chat message. Before continuing, please read the disclaimer on the second page of our presentation. Let me mention that forward looking statements are based on Companelhia's management beliefs and assumptions and information currently available to the company. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions because they are related to future events that may or may not occur. Investors should understand that general economic and industry conditions and other operating factors could also affect the future results of Pampa Energia and could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in such forward looking statements.

Operator

Now I will turn to Lida. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Raquel. Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining our conference call. I will make a real quick summary of the Q2 so we can have more time for questions with the management today for the q and a. We have our CEO, mister Gustavo Mariani our head of Organa and Gas, mister Horatio Turi and our CFO, mister Alfoso Arriola. So going to the Slide three, several key developments marked the 2025.

Speaker 1

First and foremost is the successful production ramp up in Rincon De Aranda, thanks to the tightening of new pads in coordination with the commissioning of supporting infrastructure such as the temporary processing facility, internal and trunk pipelines, and so on. So also, the contribution of the new 140 megawatt wind farm, PP6, and the higher spot prices boosted the quarter's figures. However, colder temperatures started in June, so delayed the spike of the winter, the winter spike in both power and gas demand. PEDCHEM contributed positive EBITDA continue gradually recovering, returning to a positive EBITDA. Finally, in a proactive LM and Ability Management transaction, we extended the 2029 notes to 2034 with a $140,000,000 recap issued at the lowest spread over US Treasuries in Pampa's history.

Speaker 1

Let's move into the quarter's financial results. The adjusted EBITDA amounted to $249,000,000 This is a 17% decline year on year driven by soft gas sales, falling petchem prices and higher operating expenses weighted on the performance. The headwinds were partially offset by contributions from the new PP6, the wind farm, increased gas exports to Chile and higher production at Winconi Aranda. Quarter on quarter EBITDA improved due to the seasonality and growing output at Rincon de Aranda. CapEx surged 140134% year on year, reaching to $354,000,000 The majority, which is $249,000,000 was invested in the development of Brincon de Aranda.

Speaker 1

Moving on to slide four, the oil and gas adjusted EBITDA was up $87,000,000 down 28% year on year, largely due to reduced domestic gas sales to retail and thermal power as the colder weather arrived later than usual. The expiration of winter peak contracts between May and September under the planned gas GSA also impacted the results, though in June that performed very strongly as if the GSA remained in place. Higher lifting costs, especially from Rincon Neranda, also affected EBITDA performance. However, increased gas exports to Chile and stronger crude oil production at Rinconerana helped to balance this decline. The lease of temporary facilities at Rinconerana and gas treatment fees pushed the lifting cost up to $7.6 per BOE.

Speaker 1

In particular, gas lifting cost rose to $1.1 per mmHg. This is influenced also by the lower output. Quarter on quarter lifting cost per BOE increased moderately, explained by the transition from trucking to in house and leased facilities, offset by the seasonality. Total production averaged 84,000 barrels per day. This is down 7% year on year due to the output decreases at El Mangrullo and nonoperating blocks, partially offset by Rincon De Aranda and Siedra Chata gas fields.

Speaker 1

Quarter on quarter, the production is up 16%, again explained by the seasonal effects and shale oil. The production mix continues to shift with oil rising to nine percent of the total production output and contributing 18% of the oil and gas revenues, entirely due to Rinconera and that ramp up. Also, we tied in two shell wells targeting Vaca Muerta at Rio Neuquen block, the block's first shell development alongside new Thai gas wells. Rio Neuquen is not operated by Pampa. Crude oil prices averaged nearly $62 per barrel in Q2.

Speaker 1

This is 14% lower than last year, mainly explained by the Brent underperformance, affecting exports mostly. However, our hedging strategy around Brincon De Aranda's rising production helped to mitigate the price drop. Total gas fell sales fell 11% year on year. This is to almost 13,000,000 kilometers per day, but rose 10% from q one, last as as as explained recently again by seasonality. The Mangroucho block continued to lead the output, though its share declined to 58 of the total gas volume in q two.

Speaker 1

Meanwhile, Sierracotta increased its share to 29% of the gas output in q two with a 14% production gain year on year. In Sierra Chata, we drilled four wells and tidying three year to date. So 57 of the q two output is considered shale gas. And now in line with our commitments with the exploratory block in Este, we drilled a horizontal shale well, which is currently awaiting, for completion and testing. Pampa extended Paravanera SESTE license exploratory license until 2027.

Speaker 1

In in the gas prices, they averaged 4% $4, sorry, per millimeter in the quarter, remaining steady year on year due to the Brent prices that affected export prices and offset by improved retail prices and improved marginally in the industrial segment. Half of our gas was delivered to CAMMESA for power thermal generation under the Plant Gas USA. If you see the nationwide gas, we contributed 17% of the of the gas consumed totally in the country for power generation. Since May, we have increased our flows to Chile through two pipelines. Right?

Speaker 1

Gas Andes and La Pacifico, as as Upto Pacifico, capitalizing on the competitiveness of our gas relative to LNG. By June, the exports had reached 1,100,000 cubic meters per day, same as today. Though Q2 gas sales were soft, June rebounded sharply with the colder temperatures. On July 24, we hit a new all time high daily production high at 17,400,000 kilometers per day driven by the outstanding shale wells at Sierra Chata. The most recent tiding pad of free wells we peak at 2,700,000 kilometers per day in June, highlighting its solid productivity and competitiveness.

Speaker 1

So focusing now on Rinconi Aranda, we have five pads that have been drilled, four of which are online. During Q2, the block produced an average of 5,300 barrels per day, exiting June at 8,800 barrels per day. This growth was mainly driven by the pads number two and number four. The latter began really producing in late June. So and and it didn't by then, completely cleared out the water, so it wasn't tested.

Speaker 1

And currently, Rincon de Aranda is delivering almost 16,000,000 16,000 barrels per day from four pads. The last two pads were tidied during July, and they're still under low testings. For 2025, we budget $800,000,000 in total CapEx, having already invested over $360,000,000 year to date. We expect it to reach 200 20,000 barrels per day at Rincon De Aranda by q four and aim to reach a target of 45,000 barrels per day by 2027 when Vaca Muerta Sur oil Sur pipeline is online. So, again, to support this ramp up, we secured trunk pipelines, transportation agreements in Baca Muerta Sur, and Remos and Duplicar.

Speaker 1

In June, we applied to the Rihi framework for the central processing facility, aka CPF, and all related infrastructure needed to evacuate the target production level as shown in the video on the screen. The CPF flowlines, pipelines, water treatment pools, and all required investment is approximately $426,000,000 of which the CPF is slated to begin by next year. Switching to power generation on Slide 9. We posted an adjusted EBITDA of $112,000,000 in Q2. This is a 5% increase year on year, mainly explained by BPES6 performance and higher spot prices measured in dollars, partially offset by increased operating costs and scheduled outages.

Speaker 1

Generation volumes declined 7% year on year, and availability stood at 92% due to the maintenance there at Guadalajara, upgrade works in Barragan CCGT for efficiency and lower gas emissions, the hydro's new lease outages in two out of the three dams since January. Still, increased gas supply and BP6 helped to offset the decreases. Capacity payments, particularly under the take or pay PPAs, continued to support 70% of the segment's EBITDA. Turning to Slide 10 about the cash flow, we only show restricted group figures because they are aligned with the bond parameter. In Q2, we posted a free cash flow outflow of $3.00 $7,000,000 This is mainly driven by the CapEx that we're doing at Rigondanda, which accounted 75% of the total investment, along with an uptick in seasonal working capital as gas sales peak during the Q2 and Q3, right?

Speaker 1

As a result, cash and cash equivalents stood at $879,000,000 at the quarter end. Finally, in the balance sheet, gross debt was nearly $1,600,000,000, down 23% since December 2024, thanks to the redemption of the twenty seventh and the twenty ninth notes. Debt rose to 707, $712,000,000. This is 1.1 times net leverage ratio, reflecting the cash outflow for CapEx and the and the working capital needs. Our successful liability management efforts extended the net debt the debt average life to six to six point two years from four point two years, significantly improving the maturity profile and the high I mean, the the the high drawdown in cash from Rinconi Aranda.

Speaker 1

So this concludes our presentation. Now the floor is open for questions. If you have a question, please send it to the Zoom chat. We'll read it and answer them in order received. Make sure your name and the company is is correctly displayed to introduce you to the audience.

Speaker 1

Should any participant need assistance, just, write it, for the Zoom chat. We we are holding for questions, so please wait a little bit. Thank you. Alright. Cool.

Speaker 1

Let's head it off.

Speaker 2

No.

Speaker 1

No. We have already received questions.

Speaker 2

Oh, really? Okay.

Speaker 1

Is

Speaker 3

open. Yeah. No. Because

Speaker 1

the third question goes to you. I'm 99%. And 99% target to which is, could you give us more color from Jonathan's work from from Deathwire? Could you give us more color on the CPF in Rincon Miranda, please?

Speaker 3

Well, good morning, everybody. Thanks for joining the meeting. The CPF stands for central processing facility and basically has three different, I would say, purposes. One, obviously, is the oil and water separation and the disposal of that, flowback water, the possibility of, having the oil ready to be dispatched to the YPF facility in order to get in in a spec for injection in the in the main pipeline. And, also the separation of natural gas, which is currently being sent through a gas pipeline to the Vista facility in Bateria Tres, which has already been connected.

Speaker 3

This processing center processing facility has a total or output of 7,000 cubic meters per day, and we expect it to be finished by the 2026.

Speaker 1

Which is 45,000 barrels per day?

Speaker 3

Which is 40 yes. A little bit less than 45,000 barrels per day, 42 or something.

Speaker 1

Which is our plateau.

Speaker 3

Which is our our expected plateau. That is right.

Speaker 1

Awesome. Well, the next question, yes, is for Gustavo. Have you already started self producing with our own fault, meaning self producing power, right, with our your own fuel? If not, when do you expect to begin? And which is the spread between Kemese's reference price and your own procurement part price.

Speaker 2

Good morning, everybody. Yes. We have we have begun to self procure our own gas to to our facilities, but on a marginal basis because, as you know, the deregulation has not occurred yet, but there are some opportunities for us to self procure fuel on some of our facilities, those that do not require firm gas transportation or whether those days we find a firm transportation capacity. So the answer is yes. We have begun to to do it on a on a marginal basis.

Speaker 2

And you ask about this?

Speaker 1

The price.

Speaker 2

The price.

Speaker 1

What's the spread against the plant gas price, I guess? Yes.

Speaker 2

Currently correct me. It's $9 is is what oh,

Speaker 3

9 and and 8. No? No. It's

Speaker 2

Current currently, it's it's 8. Yeah. The the the word CAMMESA has been changing this regulation or or this pricing has been initially has allowed generators to buy natural gas up to $11 per million of BTU, then to $9 per million BTU. And this current two weeks, because it's a it's a system that changes every two weeks, it's $8 per per million of BTU. So the spread to winter gas price is about $3 and a half or something like that.

Speaker 2

Winter gas price for CAMMESA is around $4.50, I would say.

Speaker 1

It's in Noma De La Lata, right, specifically?

Speaker 2

That that's where that's the facility that we are able to take advantage of this opportunity because it doesn't require gas transportation. Awesome.

Speaker 1

Next question comes from Guido Visocero from Alaria, and he asked again, regarding Rincon De Randa, could you give us any color on the expected evolution of the lifting cost throughout the second half of the year and 2026, considering the ramp up expected in production and until the processing plant is constructed?

Speaker 3

Okay. 2025, we were a little bit below $16 per barrel, basically due to the fixed cost of the TPF of the temporary production facility, which has a lease has to be paid annually and is fixed. And the production rate at the 2025 was 5,000 barrels per day. So that explains the high lifting cost. Moving to the 2025 due to the increase in production, as Lida mentioned before, we are close to 15,000 barrels per day.

Speaker 3

We are reaching around $8.5 per barrel in terms of lifting cost. We also reduced significantly the figure from the first quarter due to the connection of our oil pipeline. We were evacuating oil through trucks at the very beginning. By 2026, with the increase in production to 20,000 barrels per day, we should be hitting around $7 per barrel. And the final stage would be the installation on construction of the CPF, and that will move down the lifting cost to $5 per barrel with a plateau of 45,000 barrels per day.

Speaker 1

Awesome. Thank you. You mentioned the oil average price will have been $58.5 per barrel without the hedging strategy in q two twenty five. I I mentioned that. Despite the 67.5 Brent average in the period, are you planning to hedge production during 2026?

Speaker 4

The 58 is Neto. Neto. And

Speaker 3

No. The yeah. Go ahead. I think that the the diff the the main difference is that the brand has two, discounts in order to be, in a in in to transform it in in in the Well Yeah.

Speaker 2

Well Well priced.

Speaker 3

Well priced. So the the wellhead price. One is the, export, tax, which is 8%, and also there's a premium for Medanito quality, which ranges, but it go around it's around 2 to $1.5 per barrel.

Speaker 2

A discount. No. Not a not a premium. The discount.

Speaker 3

The the negative premium. A negative premium. Yes. Yeah. This is basically the the explanation.

Speaker 3

And regarding the the hedging for 2026, we already started hedging. Now we are already hedged until, what, September, but July is the the the exercise month.

Speaker 2

Yeah. But, basically, we have one year forward. We we are hedged at currently around 70%, 75% of our expected production at a price of $69 Do

Speaker 1

you expect better prices, Horatio, boost? I mean, less discount versus Brent. And when you reach the 20,000 barrels production target by year end, a little bit for the neurology, but

Speaker 2

It's it's it's impossible to predict it at all. We don't feel that we can predict. So we look at the future prices of of rent as the best indication of where prices are gonna be. So that that that is we cannot say anything better than that than what the future market curves predict.

Speaker 3

Great.

Speaker 1

Then Guido asks about the CESA project, which is the Southern Energy LNG floating LNG project. Do you expect any participation in the construction and maintenance of the required gas new gas pipeline for TGS?

Speaker 3

We are still in discussions and trying to, put together the best solution for that. But eventually, TGS, could be part of the consortium to build and operate that gas pipeline.

Speaker 1

How much gas may Pampa add in sales for these two ships in 2027 and 2028? How much CapEx do you need to achieve it?

Speaker 3

Okay. The total amount of gas at the end of the two vessels being operational in Argentina is around 6,000,000 cubic meters per day. That is by the 2028. The CapEx associated is for the ramp up and the construction of a new facility in Sierra Chata. We are talking about $400,000,000, out of which 50 percent facility, 50% is, drilling and and completion.

Speaker 3

And then we will have around 60,000,000 to $80,000,000 per year on a plateau basis to keep up with the $6,000,000 Great.

Speaker 1

The $6,000,000 it's breakdown between $25 for the first shift and

Speaker 3

the Yes. That's the total amount at the end of the of of being the two vessels being operational. It's approximately 40% the for the with the first vessel and 60% with the second vessel. Awesome.

Speaker 1

And he asked this last question is about the TGS private initiative. So how much EBITDA annual EBITDA contribution for TGS do you expect for this project?

Speaker 2

No. I I don't I don't have that figure in my mind. Should I ask that to

Speaker 1

For a million. What he said.

Speaker 2

Yeah. But you can I should I should ask that to to TGS once

Speaker 1

Once it's done?

Speaker 2

When it's it's awarded.

Speaker 1

Yeah. Well, because the award, it's in October. I think so. But it's the sole bidder, so I don't know if they are going to wait until October. And how much gas the Pampa add in the production considering the 14,000,000 cubic meters per day new capacity for the Perito Moreno pipeline?

Speaker 2

Eventually, Pampa has reserves to to supply all that gas. But how much what market share of that new market will will pump again? It's a question that we still don't have an answer. We expect that that is this increase in the capacity of the of the pipeline. So this 14,000,000 cubic meters of natural gas per day, they're going to be used for a short period of time, something like around one hundred days per year during during wind mostly during wintertime.

Speaker 2

So it will replace imports of LNG and diesel oil that the country does at much higher prices. So pricing for for this gas should be close to that import parity, but we will see once that market develops.

Speaker 1

No. Sorry. This is a new streaming room. And he says, well, something that we always ask in every quarter is what prices of natural gas are forecasting for this project? That

Speaker 2

that is what

Speaker 1

I Okay. Then from Jefferies, he's asking something about the lifting cost and drilling cost that we already answered. Right? Drilling cost, we didn't answer, though.

Speaker 3

I'll answer that.

Speaker 1

Drilling cost, we didn't answer, though.

Speaker 3

Okay.

Speaker 1

He's asking how the drilling costs are evolving.

Speaker 3

Okay. Drilling costs are going down. Specifically talking about drilling, we moved from, drilling efficiency of around 500 to 600 meters, per day to around 900 meters per day. So, we are, improving significantly in in our drilling efficiency. On top of that, we also made some improvements in our state in stage fracking per day, moving from six or seven to around eight ten to 11.

Speaker 3

So in all, with the improvements in completion and drilling, we should be able to reduce our total cost, yeah, per well, from 15.5 to something around $13,000,000, but this is gonna take some more time, probably one more year.

Speaker 1

Okay. And, what level of shale oil, production do you expect from Brinconera? This this is what we already mentioned that. Already mentioned. Quarterly, I guess, but no.

Speaker 1

Next quarter, Seth.

Speaker 3

Next quarter? Next quarters. Next quarters. Okay. No problem.

Speaker 3

We are currently in, I mean, in the range of 15,000 barrels per day, and, we should be increasing our production in order to reach 18,000, barrels per day by the end of the year, by the last quarter. So that's more or less what we have in in our minds as a ramp up.

Speaker 2

But but we we could say that be before, we were expecting to reach that by year end, now we are the the average of the fourth quarter is is going to be around that. No? It's like the the good results of Rincon de Randa have

Speaker 3

by year by year end. Mhmm. There might be a gap, in the next quarter. But by the end of the year, we should be definitely reaching the 18,000 to 20,000 barrels per day.

Speaker 1

Is also asking the evolution of Rio Neuquen. I don't know.

Speaker 3

Rio Neuquen in terms of shale oil?

Speaker 1

Shale oil.

Speaker 3

The Rio Neuquen shale oil project is is is very, very I mean, it's at the very early stage. It's exploratory. There have been two drill two wells have been drilled already, and still a long way to go. I mean, it's it's not a project. It's just a pilot.

Speaker 1

It's in the border of Vaca Muerta.

Speaker 3

Right? It's the border of Vaca Muerta. The results have not been that bad. I mean, it's okay. But we still there's still a long way to go in order to be to decide whether to move, steady ahead.

Speaker 1

Well, Julian Castas from Latin Securities also asked about the lifting trends, so we already answered that.

Speaker 3

Okay.

Speaker 1

Bruno Montaragi from Morgan Stanley, though, he is asking, can you comment on the expectations for cash generation in second half of twenty twenty five? In particular, should you should we see any the same CapEx intensity at Rinconia Randa? What about the working capital? Should be any reversal of the pressure observed in the 2025?

Speaker 2

The cash generation in the 2025 is gonna be negative. So we have we have been saying for, a few quarters. 2025 and and 2026 are gonna be years where, basically, because of the money that we will be deploying in Rinconeranda that I remind you is gonna be $1,500,000,000 between 2025 and 2026. We will be having negative free cash flow in Pampa, so we're investing in excess of our free cash flow generation. So the intensity will continue in the second half of this year.

Speaker 2

And in the first half of next year, you should be expecting a negative free cash flow. Anything else?

Speaker 1

He asked working capital. What do you think about working capital? It usually, it gets better in the second half of the year. Right?

Speaker 2

I don't know if we do

Speaker 1

Vito, would you like to comment?

Speaker 2

Capital. We

Speaker 4

don't project to have more working capital. Should we recover all the production from the third Q and the fourth Q and should improve?

Speaker 2

Yeah. And because as sales will increase, there will be a little bit more working capital involved Yeah. In the coming quarters, but that's something natural because of the increase in sales.

Speaker 1

Yeah. As remind you all that, Bamba, it's it's a it's a Gauss curve. Right? This is our peak moment, q two and q three. Also, can you comment on the company's learning color in operating Shell Oil?

Speaker 1

Yeah.

Speaker 3

Well, we are definitely learning a lot. And as I mentioned before, we we were able to take advantage of this productivity increase both in drilling and and completion, And, we are now trying to understand a little bit better, whether the long range sand versus the short range sand, and the spacing between stages have to remain constant or something that we can keep on trying to understand better and eventually improve some some more dollars in our total well per cost cost per well.

Speaker 1

Yes. Also, what what positive surprises, have you been seeing or any main challenges since the beginning of the operation at

Speaker 3

Randa? Okay. I would say that the most interesting surprise we had in Rincon Rincon de Randa is that originally, we had two landing zones, the Cocina and the Organico Inferior. We had some expectations on the Organico Superior, but with a lot of uncertainty, drilled in the part number six, we drilled as well to the organic or superior target and with a very, very good performance. And that opens up the possibility of developing as well a third layer that was not, before taking into account.

Speaker 1

Right. Oh, so, basically, cut the company's confident with the growth profile to reach the peak production as planned.

Speaker 3

Yeah.

Speaker 1

Alright. Next question comes from Lily Yang from HSBC, and she asked well, Floracio, could you give us more color on the free LNG the the free, right, LNG projects going on in Argentina, specifically on the timing and your interest in participating?

Speaker 3

And comment only the the one who's participating. The other the other two projects are YPF projects, and I'd rather ask them what they're gonna do about that.

Speaker 1

Yeah. She asked if we are interested in participating.

Speaker 2

We we have, as we always say we always say, very competitive gas reserves. So we are always interested in, projects that will that could allow us to develop this extraordinary gas reserves that that we have. Today, we are 100% focused on the CISA project, the one that it's already underway. And we are discussing with the with YPF and the other partners the the other possibility, but there's not much to say there.

Speaker 1

She asked, where do you see high upside potential? Power, TGS, or E and P? Very straightforward.

Speaker 2

I I think there is a upside potential in all the three segments. Obviously, in

Speaker 3

the

Speaker 2

next in the near term, E and P as is where the growth on the EBITDA of Pampa is going to to come from in a very significant way in terms because of the development of of Rincon de Randa. In the case of power, we are waiting for the deregulation. There are no news there, but we we are waiting for that. It's not something, as we said, that's gonna be a game changer for for Pampa, but we expect an improvement in in the power business because of the the deregulation. And in the short term, we should be also expecting, the need of additional and increasing the, capacity, of of the country, on big projects that takes a long time to to develop, like three years.

Speaker 2

So there's gonna be an opportunity for Pampa to continue growing in power generation after the deregulation. And TGS, also has a lot of infrastructure project on the on the pipeline to to continue growing. So we see upside potential in all the three segments.

Speaker 1

Great. Well, and then, obviously, the more synergies between power and and EMV gas.

Speaker 3

Mhmm.

Speaker 2

That's quite small. No? Yeah. We we we we to the d VES.

Speaker 1

V battery energy storage.

Speaker 2

Yes. Yeah. Battery storage auction that we participated with a project of, 50 megawatt. We're waiting to see whether we will be awarded or not. It's a very competitive project.

Speaker 2

It won three times more offers than what CAMMESA was requesting. In the specific case of our project, it's even more competitive because we are competing with, like, six or seven projects. So it's very, very competitive. We don't know whether we're gonna be awarded or or not.

Speaker 1

Great. Nacho Sydikoski from the Marti and Bolsa, he's asking about the hedging strategy. We already talked about that, so we're going to skip it. The second question is regarding the increase in dollar denominated costs within the oil and gas segment, particularly lifting costs as well as selling or SG and A. Is this trend primarily driven by the FX dynamics and inflationary pressures, or it's another factor I might be overlooking?

Speaker 3

Well, we we discussed the lifting cost of.

Speaker 1

Yeah. But it's he's asking if the peso share might Definitely. Yeah. Have a dollar inflation. Right?

Speaker 3

Yeah. We had a dollar inflation. Yeah.

Speaker 1

We do have in We do have. But it's smaller than other companies in the sense that we are no. In the sense that we are not a a peso company, peso cost company. Mhmm. That will be worse.

Speaker 1

My first question is about the renewal of the hydroelectric concessions. What is the current status of the process? Have there been there are any developments regarding the terms of the timing?

Speaker 2

I'm sorry. Can you

Speaker 1

The hydro concessions. I guess I guess the the big ones, the ones that want to be tender, not in ESA, a new ESA.

Speaker 2

Yeah. The the the first they should go the the tenders of the new of the hydro concessions should go first with the Comahue concessions, the ones that are basically Choco, Pedra, Ilagila, Alicura.

Speaker 1

Those ones.

Speaker 2

And those are the ones that are going to be auctioned first because they were the first that that mature. After, it's going to come the auction for Neuvela City Diamante, which will impact us. But we don't have any clarity on the timing of this process.

Speaker 1

Our question goes to Vemos. The syndicated loan has been granted. When are the divestments expected to begin? And what is the project timeline for the the projected timeline, including the start of construction and operations?

Speaker 4

Yeah. The the financing was already already deployed around $410,000,000. So we we already started the use of cash of the financing. The advancement of the project is a schedule. The first there are different stages.

Speaker 4

The first stage has an advancement of 25%. The second and third stages are around, I don't remember exactly, 10 and the like. But but the project is everything is going as as planned.

Speaker 1

Well, he's asking the recent operations regarding the acquisition of 10% of Hillbike, the purchase of the dev in their cement that was released out there. What strategic objectives are driving these transactions?

Speaker 2

I would say, I think we we talked about this in the previous quarter. There's no strategic objective on neither on these investments. They are financial

Speaker 1

Investments.

Speaker 2

Yeah. Financial investments. So it's part of our the portfolio management that we do on our on our cash position. So there's not much to to say there The financial transactions There is or strategic ones.

Speaker 1

And there's really, really tiny autumn percentage on our one all close to $1,000,000,000 cash. Right?

Speaker 2

Yes. Absolutely.

Speaker 1

Well, this question always come out, and it's coming from Francisco Cacar Cacaro from Don Cap. He asking, are you looking to change the CapEx or production forecast due to the weaker oil prices again?

Speaker 3

No. We are not. We are on the con we are not. And we and then we yeah. No.

Speaker 3

No. Definitely not. And that's additionally, that's why we are hedging our production in so we have some more less uncertainty regarding the future of of the project.

Speaker 2

If if I can add a I would say that we are not surprised by current prices because a year ago when you were looking at what future, curve of of rent was forecasting was lower prices than than than last year, so this is not a surprise. Toincon de Aranda is a profitable project at at these at these levels. And we are we will, as Orasio said, we will reach the plateau of 20 close to 20,000 barrels no, not a plateau. We will reach a production of 20,000 barrels of oil per day by year end. Once we have the central processing facility by the 2026.

Speaker 2

We will double more than double, that production. And, even at these prices, we are evaluating whether to reach another step in production Intermediate step. Intermediate step before. We haven't taken a final decision on that, but we are evaluating whether having an intermediate step next year before the as a temporary with with an with an initial temporary facility before the definitive facilities are online by year end 2026.

Speaker 1

Alright. Gustavo Faria from Bank of America. He's asking, local news mentioned that you presented a bid for total assets in Argentina. Do you plan to bid for new brownfield projects, oil projects, Or the focus on oil should rely solely on Rincon de Aranda? What were the synergies with Total's assets?

Speaker 2

As you know, in in all the m and a transactions, we always sign NDAs that restricted us about giving much information. So I don't wanna breach what we have signed. So what I can say is that we are interested in in increasing our our acreage of oil reserves where we would like to continue increasing production beyond where Rincon Naranda is going to leave us on an opportunistic basis. No? And so we will continue we will look and participate in any opportunity that may arise in the future.

Speaker 1

What total

Speaker 2

And, yeah, and and regarding synergies, I would say there are any synergies between Totos be between, like, Kalonada and Rinconera. It's it's another field to develop without any synergy. But

Speaker 1

They're pretty far away, actually.

Speaker 3

They're far 17 kilometers away. Mhmm. 17 kilometers.

Speaker 1

Alright. Well, completely another nature of question is about the power sector liberalization. This is a very could you give us any update in the timetable about the yes. Every quarter, actually.

Speaker 2

Question for the secretariat of energy. No. I I don't I don't have any idea on the timetable.

Speaker 1

The real one.

Speaker 2

Well, last year when the the the issue I don't I don't recall the number of the the the resolution, but it was before November, was supposed to be published all the the new release. We are optimistic that in the next few months, we will have news about the the upcoming new regulation.

Speaker 1

Yes. What's the marginal cost of operation in in dollar terms, in dollar per megawatt hour for Pampa assets? What do you estimate as an update, potential for this real upside potential, it should be, for this trigger?

Speaker 2

I guess That's a question for you if you understood it.

Speaker 1

Yeah. I guess, Paul, we have the deregulation is for the thermal, right, for the thermal units. It's not the market marginal system. It's for the thermal units. Obviously, the peaking or the peakers, known as the peakers, the open cycles are way out of the league in a normal day.

Speaker 1

Right? In a normal Argentina's normal day, it's around, what, 4 if sometimes the average cost is $70 last year. But I guess with more gas supply, less imports, and so on, it should be going down, let's say, in the long term for a period of time, it's $60. But in a normal day, with no extreme weather, it should be around $40.50 dollars marginal cost marginal cost. Yeah, more or less.

Speaker 1

Right now, it's like 200. We are 10 degrees Celsius, Right? This is winter season. And that's the opportunity line for the CCGTs. Our CCGTs, the one that is in Nomadalata, it's $30.35 dollars per megawatt hour of marginal the average cost, variable cost.

Speaker 1

And then the other ones, the the the one that it's very close is Genelva. And then a little bit out of the league, but this is still competitive. It's in Cenaba Araya. But truly out of the league, in a in a normal day, should be the pickers. That's it.

Speaker 1

I can't say more.

Speaker 2

A lot of information.

Speaker 1

A lot of information to digest. Yes. Well, Matt Mattia Cataruzzi from AdCal, he's asking, now the FID is approved for the MK two in the floating LNG project. What are the key milestones the next key milestones for the CESA project? Can you share more details on Pampa's expected equity and EBITDA contribution from upstream and the project itself and from the LNG project once it's operational?

Speaker 1

I guess, first first thing, what what kind of next movements is in the CESA project, I guess.

Speaker 3

Well The the We are we are in the process of building the the pipeline into The dedicated pipeline. Yeah. But the first, the interconnection with the San Martin pipeline. Sorry. Yeah.

Speaker 3

So we are we are now in the in the construction of the interconnection with the San Martin project and the installation of the compression plant for the first stage. That should be ready by 2027 in order to be able to feed the the first trials of the of the Healy, Ipiseyo. The Healy is moving from Cameroon to a shipyard in Singapore by mid next year and will be

Speaker 1

Coming to Austin.

Speaker 3

Coming to Argentina by September 20 in already been building the shipyard. It's doing I mean, the the project is advancing as was expected and should be online by, again, '28. At the same time, we should make a final decision regarding the construction of the dedicated pipeline from Neuquen to the Orpho San Mateas, which is currently under consideration.

Speaker 1

Great. And EBITDA and equity equity, it's 20%.

Speaker 3

20%.

Speaker 1

Yeah. 20%. And EBITDA, well, until this is online. Right? Yeah.

Speaker 1

Obviously.

Speaker 2

The EBITDA will depend very much on on LNG prices. It's going be very, very variable. And, yeah, it's impossible to see at this moment.

Speaker 1

Well, he's asking any chance of shareholder distribution. We're assuming in 2027. I guess he's talking about the buybacks because even snow. In 2027, once CapEx levels are normalized and, yes, free cash flow turns positive.

Speaker 2

We we are far away from 2027, but I'm sure there's going to be a lot of new things going on by by by 2027, so too early to to to answer that.

Speaker 1

We have to keep it up because we have a lot of questions. Safra, Carol Carol from from Safra, she's asking, we saw highlights of possible new projects and developments that Pampa could participate, like the application to the for the CPF, the BEST, the battery extender, the GPM. Can you comment on the next possible infra infrastructure projects that can materialize in Pampa?

Speaker 3

Yeah. Eventually, if we if we move ahead with well, we are moving ahead with the LNG project. We would have to supply those 6,000,000 cubic meters per day to the vessels. So we will have to increase our treatment facilities in Sierra Chata to reach those 6,000,000 per day, and that would definitely be a possibility for filing for the re for that investment project as we did for as a midstream project.

Speaker 1

Awesome. And the second question of of Carol is about it because we already talked about it.

Speaker 2

K.

Speaker 1

Santiago Herrera from Alaria, she he's asking what level of debt and leverage ratios are projected for 2026 and 2027 considering the project's already approved and under waive.

Speaker 4

For for this year, we are actually at, 1.1 times net leverage EBITDA. We are expecting to maintain around this of leverage this year. And, hopefully, by next year or by the end of next year, which will decrease a little bit this this level of leverage as Greencona and continue generate new new EBITDA to the company. So I think we will reach the peak of of net leverage, or other things being equal during the next quarter or by year end.

Speaker 1

Well, the other question is about the scheduled maintenance works at the power plants that will take place in '25 and '26. Well, we are going through an a big one right now. The outbreak works in in in. Mhmm. Okay.

Speaker 1

Santiago keeps asking. But but, usually, we do maintenance overhauls in the in October area when the there's a fall.

Speaker 2

Usually, in the either in in during the April? No. The fall or the the spring. Spring.

Speaker 1

That's right. And Santiago Arellas asking another question. What do you see the opportunity for improvement in the discount versus brand on brand?

Speaker 2

So, yeah, I

Speaker 1

the discount is $1, I guess?

Speaker 3

1.5.

Speaker 1

1.5. Do you see shrinking?

Speaker 3

It's very difficult to say. It's just a market. It's not

Operator

He's selling to me. Or

Speaker 1

at least when we reach to the year end's target

Speaker 3

again. Yeah. It's It's

Speaker 2

not related to our production. It it's a market discount that

Speaker 3

It's a for quality. I don't know. It depends on the demand around the world. It improved, though. It was three to 1.5.

Speaker 3

Now it may go again back to 2.2. I don't know. We don't know. It ranges between three and three. Three and zero.

Speaker 3

Yeah. Three not zero, but three and one, let's say.

Speaker 1

Last year was fine, I think.

Speaker 3

It it well, maybe it got to five, seven for a small period of

Speaker 2

time.

Speaker 1

Time. Yeah. Jorge Mauro from Fundamenta. He's an investor, and he's asking my questions regarding other operating income in oil and gas segment. This was $12,000,000 versus 28 last year.

Speaker 1

Can you comment? Can you explain, why? Well, this is because of the plant gas income. You know, the higher the the prices to retail that we charge in the sales, the lower the compensation to the to the plant gas price that we agree. Last year was the white because the the tariff increases were in midway.

Speaker 1

I think it was $2 per million BTU, while in in in the winter was 4 and a half. Well, the the subsidy covers that gap between four and a half and two. Now that there's constant and and frequent tariff increases to the retail, that gap shrinks. That's right. Calm down.

Speaker 1

Yeah. How much do we, how much should we expect going forward? Well, it should be shrinking. It should be zero, right, with this government's, target of no fiscal changing so abruptly because of the tariff increases. You know, there's monthly increases in the tariffs in the regulated side and also in the well, in the cost of in the cost of gas, it's not so frequent, but it's it's pretty pretty often.

Speaker 1

We're down. Okay. It's up. Lower gas production for in Mangrusha this quarter is around 19%. Should we expect peak gas production until Cesar comes online in 2028?

Speaker 3

Do we expect what again?

Speaker 1

He says, well, there's a lower production in El Mangrusha this quarter. Should we expect to repeat when Cesar comes online in 2028? I think I guess he's asking that.

Speaker 3

Whether Mangrullo will increase its production when Cesar is online. Yeah. Well, this is something that we still need to understand because, obviously, you're gonna be feeding Cesar with the most efficient

Speaker 1

Cheap gas.

Speaker 3

Gas we have.

Speaker 1

Yeah. Works for, but he can you ask, can you tell us what is the actual strategy of the company? Where do you see more value? I think the same.

Speaker 2

We already talked about the three segments of the company.

Speaker 1

Oil and gas, what are the plans? Do you want more exposure to oil and gas? We already talked about. Ignacio Lopez de Puente, from Puente, sends congratulations on Rincon Miranda. And then he asked about the CapEx and the free cash flow guidance.

Speaker 1

We already talked about that. He asked about the crew load placement after this ramp up specifically. How much are you placing locally, and how much are you exporting?

Speaker 3

Okay. Well, I I wish you

Speaker 2

yeah.

Speaker 3

By I mean, by by the time we reach the the peak product or the plateau production, we will be exporting also 100% of the production. Until that, we are in a mixture between local market and export market because we are we don't have enough transportation capacity of our own. So we are buying transportation capacity to third parties. And those third parties don't sell transportation capacity, but the possibility of selling crude oil at the export parity price. So we are selling at the export parity price.

Speaker 3

Now we don't know whether that, that oil is being exported or is being redirected to the local market. But as, economically speaking, it's as we if we were exporting.

Speaker 2

Yeah. Actually That is the I think the the main point to clarify, there is no difference today between the local price of of crude vis a vis the export parity.

Speaker 1

Actually, this quarter, we exported most.

Speaker 3

Yeah. Sure.

Speaker 1

Another question is from Murillo Riccini from Radeco. And he ask asks, recently, we've seen news we're mentioning as potential slowdown in oil production growth in Argentina due to the financial equipment constraints. Financial And equipment constraints.

Speaker 4

We don't have financial address. And equipment Equipment.

Speaker 1

How does Panca view this trend?

Speaker 3

Oh, we are not slowing at all.

Speaker 2

No. No. It is not our our case. But but we do agree, and we do see

Speaker 3

that there might be a reduction in the 2025 of, drilling and completion activity. There might be some reduction.

Speaker 1

Actually, you forecast that before. You said it. It's not gonna be

Speaker 3

You said that the duplicate project was not gonna be filled completely, and this is happening.

Speaker 1

That forecast was accurate.

Speaker 2

Yeah. It was agreed in terms of that that is why we went forward with Rincon de Aranda even without having secure transportation capacity, but we felt that there was going to be spare capacity after the duplicate project came came online.

Speaker 1

Well, but he's asking beyond the oil prices, what what do you think it could be the potential factors of this slowdown in Vaca Muerta? No. Of course, but Vaca Muerta as a whole. Why is it happening?

Speaker 3

There are some and this is just a personal view, but there are some companies that have a go through a process of acquiring new blocks, and those new blocks need to be developed, and it takes time to plan and to deploy that. So maybe that's what's

Speaker 1

Lack.

Speaker 3

Yeah. I would say, making a little bit low not so fast the or slowing the the increase on in in drilling and completion. They're still trying to digest what they already acquired.

Speaker 2

Alright. And probably lower Brent price gives the the the speed of the grow Argentina will continue growing its production of oil probably at a slower at a at a lower space because of the lower price.

Speaker 1

Edward Palma from I don't know where he asked, power generation, do you see an increase in the spot prices? Any change in your energy matrix? I guess what he's asking the spot prices is the increases so far in this scheme gonna be higher than the inflation and devaluation. So far?

Speaker 2

So far, it has been know, for the last twelve months or year and a half has been there have been dollar increases because of the the peso prices had been increased above the devaluation of the of the exchange rate. Particularly this month, it happened the opposite. I don't expect any significant change going forward.

Speaker 1

Then another question from Pedro de Detelier, which I don't remember where he works for. But are you interested in the stake that the government wants to sell in Transener? Is there any priority or shareholders' agreement that for forgiven that you are a controlling partner co controlling partner?

Speaker 2

It's not an issue of shareholders' agreement. It's a it's an issue of the law, the electricity law in Argentina that restrict us from controlling the, the transmission. If you are either a power generator or a distributor, you cannot fully control the transmission. You can have co control. That is what we currently have, but we cannot go beyond that.

Speaker 1

Alright. From Santander, he has straight forward. Any chance that Pampa vies No. That's it. We reached all the questions to all 10.

Speaker 1

Would you like to comment something else that we didn't cover in this very broad q and a session?

Speaker 3

Nothing. Nothing more. Nothing more.

Speaker 1

Well, expect us to our next call is in November, so I hope we have a a better glimpse on Pinconeira. Any questions you may have, please let us know. Raquel and I are fully available for you. Have a good time. Bye.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Powered by Quartr