LandBridge Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
August 7, 2025

Key Takeaways

  • Positive Sentiment: Landbridge reported 83% year-over-year revenue growth in Q2 and achieved an 89% adjusted EBITDA margin, driving 81% adjusted EBITDA growth.
  • Positive Sentiment: The company’s capital-light model and acquisition of 50,000 additional Permian Basin acres enabled significant operational leverage without major capital expenditures.
  • Positive Sentiment: With 94% of revenues from fee-based arrangements, Landbridge reduced commodity risk and shifted its revenue mix toward more stable cash flows.
  • Positive Sentiment: Landbridge secured a 10-year, 300,000 barrels/day pore space agreement with Devon starting in 2027 and signed options for a CCGT plant and a power partnership to support data center demand.
  • Neutral Sentiment: The company adjusted its 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $160M–$180M, reflecting a timing shift in solar project revenues into early 2026.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
LandBridge Q2 2025
00:00 / 00:00

There are 10 speakers on the call.

Operator

Hello, and thank you for standing by. My name is Regina, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to the Landbridge Second Quarter twenty twenty five Results Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer session.

Operator

I would now like to turn the conference over to Mae Harrington, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining the Landbridge second quarter twenty twenty five earnings call. I am joined today by our CEO, Jason Long and our CFO, Jack Neely. Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that in this call and the related presentation, we will make forward looking statements regarding our current beliefs, plans and expectations, which are not guarantees of future performance and which are subject to a number of known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from results and events contemplated by such forward looking statements. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward looking statements. Please refer to the risk factors and other cautionary statements included in our filings with the SEC.

Speaker 1

I would also like to point out that our investor presentation and today's conference call will contain discussions of non GAAP financial measures, which we believe are useful in evaluating our performance. These supplemental measures should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for financial measures prepared in accordance with GAAP. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are included in our earnings release and the appendix of today's accompanying presentation. I'll now turn the call over to our Chief Executive Officer, Jason Long.

Speaker 2

Thank you, May. We're pleased to report strong second quarter results, which drove year over year revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth of 8381% respectively. As we pass the anniversary of our listing, it's a good time to reflect on four key factors that continue to differentiate our business model and position us to create sustainable value for shareholders. First, our business is capital light, enabling us to benefit from continued growth in the Permian Basin without incurring meaningful operating and capital expenditures. This is reflected in our adjusted EBITDA margin of 89% during the second quarter.

Speaker 2

We remain excited about growth opportunities across the Permian and have increased our land holdings by more than 50,000 acres over the past twelve months to make sure we're in a position to capitalize on such opportunities. Second, owning surface acreage provides significant optionality. Over the past year, we have deepened and developed relationships with clients and blue chip operators across key industries, including renewable energy and digital infrastructure. That includes our first development agreement for a data center, which was signed in November 2024, as well as a solar energy project development agreements with affiliates of Desiree earlier this year. We look forward to continuing to explore opportunities to support the development of data centers and other digital infrastructure in the region.

Speaker 2

While digital infrastructure has not to date represented a meaningful contribution to revenues or related projections, we are actively working to identify additional projects to add incremental revenue. Third, our diversified revenue streams reduce commodity risk and provide numerous growth opportunities between surface use royalties and revenues, resource sales and royalties and oil and gas royalties. And finally, symbiotic relationship with Waterbridge as we have discussed regularly since the launch of our IPO process in 2024, we see this relationship as one of Landbridge's biggest strategic advantages, providing superior visibility into long term trends and ultimately revenue growth. We provide Waterbridge access to underutilized pore space in exchange for market driven surface royalties from each barrel produced water handled by Waterbridge on our land as well as market driven surface use payments for infrastructure constructed on our land. This relationship with the largest pure play integrated water infrastructure company in the Delaware Basin helps to drive reliable recurring revenue for our business and compelling returns for our shareholders.

Speaker 2

Each agreement with Waterbridge is vetted and approved by an established well tested corporate governance process and fully disclosed via public filings. Turning to more recent developments, I'm pleased to share that our team has continued to make commercial progress, executing a number of new high impact agreements this year. First, we recently executed a ten year surface use and pore space reservation agreement with Devon Energy, securing 300,000 barrels a day of pore space capacity on our East State Line and Speed Ranches to accommodate long term water takeaway and disposal for developments concentrated in the core of the New Mexico Delaware Basin. This agreement will begin in the 2027 and includes an obligation to deliver at least 175,000 barrels per day. We also executed an option agreement with a large public IPP for the development and construction of a natural gas fired CCGT plant on our Reeves County acreage to service future prospective co located data center load demand.

Speaker 2

This project marks a pivotal step in meeting West Texas growing power needs, driving transformative in basin power generation investments. Finally, we're excited to announce the strategic partnership with a leading vertically integrated power generation and solutions provider to accelerate the development of scalable, resilient and sustainable energy infrastructure in West Texas. This collaboration strengthens our platform by aligning our assets with a trusted partner capable of delivering cost effective long term power through power purchase agreements. This initiative is expected to support energy intensive customers, including data centers, while significantly enhancing the value of our asset portfolio. Turning to recent regulatory developments in Texas, we're pleased to note that recently announced changes governing produced water handling facilities are not only beneficial for our company, but ones we fully support.

Speaker 2

These updates shine a spotlight on our responsible forest based management strategy, underscoring that forest based is not a simple commodity. Instead, our historical and current operating approach prioritizes sustainable use, resulting in superior asset longevity and flow assurance, which in turn delivers a truly differentiated value proposition for our stakeholders. Make no mistake, we are the solution to the issue these regulations aim to address, not part of the problem. Our approach is fundamentally different and we believe essential for long term success in this evolving landscape. We're looking forward to the second half of the year and continuing to identify new opportunities to increase revenues.

Speaker 2

I'll now turn the call over to Scott to walk through the numbers.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Jason, and thanks and welcome to everyone joining us on the call today. As Jason already stated, we're pleased with the quarter and performance throughout the 2025. Our second quarter revenues increased to $47,500,000 up 8% sequentially and 83% year over year. Sequential revenue growth for the quarter was driven by surface use royalties and revenue, which increased 31% sequentially. This growth was driven by an increase in easements and other surface related revenue, including several large renewal payments, multiple new projects and an overall increase in commercial activity on our acreage.

Speaker 3

Overall revenue growth was partially offset by sequential declines across our two other revenue categories. Resource sales and royalties experienced a 26% sequential decline, driven by lower brackish water sales and royalty volumes, and oil and gas royalties declined 19% sequentially, driven by a decrease in net royalty production with volumes falling from $9.23 BOE a day in Q1 twenty twenty five to $8.14 BOE a day in Q2 'twenty five. Overall, we have successfully shifted our revenue mix in favor of fee based arrangements versus royalties that fluctuate with commodity prices. Today, such arrangements account for a record 94% of total revenues. The efficiency of our capital model continues to deliver strong adjusted EBITDA, dollars 42,500,000.0, representing a sequential increase of 981% year over year with an 89% adjusted EBITDA margin.

Speaker 3

We generated free cash flow of approximately $36,100,000 and free cash flow margin of 76, which is in line with our previously discussed long term free cash flow margin expectations of about 70%. We ended the quarter with total liquidity of $95,300,000 including cash and cash equivalents of $20,300,000 and approximately $75,000,000 under our revolving credit facility. Our capital allocation priorities remain the same for 2025, and we continue to execute these priorities, which, as a reminder, include maintaining a strong balance sheet to maximize financial flexibility over time. We ended the quarter with 374,300,000 of debt outstanding under our term loan and revolving credit facility, which is down from $379,300,000 at the end of Q1 twenty twenty five. Our net leverage ratio was 2.4x compared to the 2.5x at the end of the first quarter.

Speaker 3

We remain committed to returning capital to shareholders and have declared a quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share. Our dividend provides shareholders with the opportunity to share in our successes. Finally, we will continue to evaluate a host of value enhancing land acquisitions in the second half of the year, which will further solidify our standing in the marketplace. In anticipation of the execution of the DBR solar opportunity with a large public renewable energy developer and operator, we are adjusting our adjusted EBITDA guidance range for full year 2025 to between $160,000,000 and $180,000,000 This adjustment is primarily driven by an expectation that the majority of the revenue associated with the GBR Solar opportunity will be recognized following year end 2025, later than initial revenue expectations based on an earlier execution of this opportunity. And now we'd like to open up the line for questions.

Speaker 3

Operator?

Operator

Our first question will come from the line of Charles Meade with Johnson Rice. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Yes. Good morning, Jason and Scott. Scott, I want to pick up right where you left off there, the DBR solar. And can you just can you elaborate a little bit more on the history of this project and where you obviously, you had that $10,000,000 of EBITDA revenue in 2025. But can you just kind of put the overall time line in context and what this I guess, what precipitated the shift?

Speaker 4

And perhaps as part of that, it seems like it's a shift in that it hasn't disappeared, but maybe you can just confirm that.

Speaker 3

Yes. No. Morning, Charles. Happy to. So if you recall, this solar project was one where we had worked through effectively all of the prep work, which includes the tax abatement work, the coordination with the mineral owners and so on, on part of our surface position that was part of the original acquisition we closed on in 2021.

Speaker 3

And so we had worked through the preparation for several years. We had planned to put it out to market to a developer last year. The the site itself is located immediately adjacent to where the primary site is that's associated with the the data center opportunity that, you know, we worked through last year. And so we, you know, we punted on marketing that site to the solar developers until after that was wrapped up. So that, you know, that was obviously we got that option agreement in place for the data center at the '24.

Speaker 3

And as such, it's going to flip and put the data excuse me, the solar facility to market here in early 'twenty five. We had baked in about $10,000,000 expected just based on input from our consultants in terms of what you could typically see for a project like that this year. But as I've spoken to, you know, in the past, you know, all of that was obviously subject to commercial progress progress discussions and so on. And so, you know, ultimately, this was one where, you know, we got good traction with several really good brand name developers, have landed on a great partner. Look forward to sharing more details on that.

Speaker 3

But just given how timing is playing out and when we expect those payments and that revenue to be made and recognized, kind of shifting out of this year is just kind of the reality at this point. And so we're really excited to get it done. We think it's, again, it's another testament to our ability to execute on a wide variety of opportunities. But as I've said many times before, we're always focused here on long term value creation, not on accelerating cash flows if that is just not the most economic outcome for the company. I think this is just a very good example of that.

Speaker 4

Got it. That's helpful. I appreciate it. And then as a follow-up, I wanted to ask about the deal that you guys signed with Devon to bring produced water to East Stateline and Speed Ranch. You know, really the the my understanding is that Speedway pipeline, which I guess technically isn't isn't, Lambridge, but you guys are are are, you know, building, you know, building, you know, building capacity on that line.

Speaker 4

So can you just put Devon that Devon deal in the context of of the Speedway line that that is gonna be coming to, to your speed range?

Speaker 5

Yeah. I mean, you could see in

Speaker 3

the map there are certainly some capital synergies for Waterbridge as it relates to this Devon project and the broader Speedway project. You know, I think from Landbridge's perspective, it's just it's an incredibly exciting opportunity. I mean, this was one, you know, where I think we we clearly relationship with the Devon team via Waterbridge and their, you know, their interest in Waterbridge. But I think this is just a real reflection from a very smart, prudent operator, who's looking out at kind of the realities of what's needed from a PoreSpace perspective to accommodate future growth. You know, from our view, this is somewhat of an inflection point, certainly a new contract structure where you've got an operator going directly to a landowner saying, I need to lock up large amounts of pore space over an extended period of time, and I'm willing to give you a meaningful guarantee to back stop that because that's how critical PoreSpace is going to be to my to my development program going forward.

Speaker 3

And so that was ultimately what, you know, kinda catalyzed the discussion between Landbridge and Devon directly and led to this. Now how it relates to Speedway, this is, again, from Waterbridge's perspective, they they complement each other, but not necessarily the same. I think this is, great momentum both from the Waterbridge side and, clearly, from the Landbridge side.

Speaker 2

Yeah. The only thing I would add, Charles, is that this is there's definitely volumes in in force spaces being reserved, up on Speed Ranch, but also on our East State Landbridge. So it's a combination of both. Yeah. A good thought.

Speaker 5

I mean,

Speaker 3

the it gets back to the the the redundancy that we're able to offer producers is is unmatched. And, again, it gets back to that differentiated approach, that differentiated value proposition, and that was ultimately what got Devin, excited about the opportunity here directly with Landbridge.

Speaker 4

Got it. That's great detail. Thanks, Jason. Thanks, Scott.

Speaker 5

Yes. Thanks, Thanks, Charles.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Derrick Whitfield with Texas Capital. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Good morning all. Congrats on your operational accomplishments over the last quarter. My first question, I wanted to ask for your thoughts on the ARRIS acquisition by WES. While we question it from a value recognition perspective, it seems to support your thesis for value the value of Porespace. So I'd I'd love to hear your thoughts on that.

Speaker 3

Yeah. Yeah. I think that's you know, I

Speaker 5

think we I'll answer this

Speaker 3

from Lambert's perspective. I mean, I think the biggest takeaway from Lambert's perspective, as you read through that, is the criticality of poor space. And if you look at the headline, you know, that was put out, that first slide that was put out by Western, you know, they flag, the McNeil Ranch and the poor space offered by McNeil Ranch as being such a big piece of, of the value that's ultimately brought, you know, to the table here. You know, I think more broadly speaking, you know, obviously, as they talk through valuation, there's a little bit to to unpack there as is very typical in M and A deals. But look, I mean, again, you know, this shows, you know, Western is very focused on PoreSpace.

Speaker 3

I mean, that's shown not just through this deal, but if you recall, we announced our deal with them earlier, as part of their Pathfinder pipeline. I mean and so it all kind of circles back to, you know, for responsible water handling, particularly going forward, this pore space, the surface access is just so, so critical. And you're seeing that manifest itself, you know, directly through deals with us, like we've seen with Devon, like we've done with Western previously, but then you're also seeing it on the actual midstream side where, you know, very smart, prudent midstream operators as they look through M and A with folks like ARRIS are very much valuing the floor space that they have to offer. So all of this reinforce I think reinforces the thesis and the narrative that we've been communicating to the market historically.

Speaker 6

Great. And for my follow-up, I wanted to shift the focus to your power announcements for the quarter. Are we safe to assume the IPP reference would be a new development for the Delaware, I. E. Not CPV basin energy or basin ranch energy?

Speaker 6

And that IPP has a line of sight to a combined cycle gas turbine given the tightness we're seeing right now among the OEMs?

Speaker 3

Yeah. So this I hesitate to give too much detail now because the larger public IPP wants to put a joint press release here in the coming weeks to speak to a lot of those details, Derek. I'll just say it's it's a brand name, and one, just when that release comes out, I think, will speak a lot to to the offering. So hate to put that one on pause, but I think we look forward to getting more details out here, over the next few weeks.

Speaker 6

That's terrific. I'll leave it there.

Speaker 3

Okay. Thanks, Chuck. Appreciate it.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of John McKay with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for the time. Wanted to start maybe just on the Devon deal. And if we look across the footprint right now, I guess, you just catch us up on really, like, much poor space you guys have is is spoken for at this point? And then maybe on a related piece, how you're looking about looking around that kind of land acquisition market to add to that?

Speaker 7

Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yeah. I mean, as you think about what we've identified from a forest based standpoint, we've identified way more than 5,000,000 barrels a day of potential access to capacity, and that's the underutilized pore space. As you think, to answer your second question, we continue with our geological teams to look for additional pore space and underutilized access to land as we expand our position. So that's definitely top of mind.

Speaker 7

That's fair. And maybe just looking at the quarter, easements were stronger. You guys kind of touched on that. Were any of these renewal payments kind of one offs in there? Or is this kind of a new good run rate?

Speaker 7

And then similarly, resource sales being a little softer, I think, makes sense given activity levels, but also just wondering if there's any kind of more one offs in there. Thanks.

Speaker 3

Yeah. No, there's always going to be a mix of renewals versus upfront payments. And so it's kind of important to note that. I think the bulk of the upfront payments we get, though, typically manifest themselves down the road as some type of renewal. Very rarely do we get, like, a one off, and then it's done, but but certainly not not never.

Speaker 3

You know, as as you look through the rest, you know, obviously, surface use royalties saw a great quarter there, I think largely in line with our expectation. Yeah. You know, ultimately, I think the way the way you need to think about it is it's not it's not gonna be, like, a run rate going forward, so to speak, where that will be repeated, but I think you'll start to see it just compound over time. And there'll be a little bit of lumpiness kind of quarter over quarter. But as we've seen historically and kind of continue to progress today,

Speaker 5

the slope is up to

Speaker 3

the right, and that will continue.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Kevin MacGurray with Pickering Energy Partners. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Hey, good morning. I wanted to ask for a little bit more color on the new Texas Railroad Commission guidelines on injection pressure. Can you maybe summarize the new rules and compare that to your internal view of water disposal and competitive position in the basin?

Speaker 2

Yes, for sure. As we thought about this, you know, if you if you put the the both the Water Ridge and the Land Bridge hat on, what puts us in a really unique position is our access to this large contiguous block of acreage. And and with that, we have the ability to make sure that we're spreading out the injection. That really, for the most part, as you think through the the new rules and regulation, is what they're really, really focused on is making sure we're not concentrating that injection in specific areas. So really having the ability to spread that out, which in turn gives you access to to lower pressure.

Speaker 2

As you think through, you know, just our strategic ability, I would go back to the fact that our the the contiguous nature of our of our footprint. There's that does not really exist along the state line in and around New Mexico, and so it puts us in a really good position to capitalize on a lot of these new volumes coming in from New Mexico.

Speaker 3

Yeah. I mean, I would just add, you know, we on the Waterbridge side, we we put out a press release endorsing the new the new regulations. We think it's great for the industry. We think there's a real healthy focus now on how do we add longevity to the industry, and how do we be more thoughtful about these longer term approaches. I think we're we're really proud in the sense that, you know, both both from the Waterbridge and the Landbridge side, it mirrors our operating philosophy and the kind of the philosophy we've always deployed when we think through, you know, building out our assets in our company.

Speaker 3

And it was the recognition it was the recognition of the problems, from these differing approaches, these overconcentration of assets that ultimately led us to start Landbridge back in 2020, 2021. We knew large contiguous pore space that had been unutilized or underutilized historically would be immensely valuable for Waterbridge but, again, for the broader industry. And so we think it's great. We think it's very smart for the regulators to be focused on that. Again, it's something that we have pushed ourselves, both from our Waterbridge seats and our Landbridge seats.

Speaker 3

And I think, again, it really reinforces the fact that we have this differentiated value proposition to offer, not just Waterbridge, but any, anyone in the industry that needs to have that surface and forespace access. You know? And so it's great to see, you know, call it, the spotlight shine on this now because we do think it's important. And, again, we do think it highlights what it is we bring to the table.

Speaker 8

Thank you for that. And I think those are important details, definitely important for the Lambridge story. For my follow-up, any thoughts on the long term potential EBITDA impact of the Devon deal or even some high level thoughts on the royalty rates compared to your current rates? I realize you may be hesitant to give too many details.

Speaker 3

Yeah. You know, we can't provide the exact royalty rate. I'll say that, you know, the the rates we're getting today for deals, this one included, certainly align with our view of the prevailing market rate at the moment. And so, we feel very confident that how we think through rate structure versus our differentiated value proposition is very much aligning to, call it, the commercial success that we would hope to see. And I think the market's kind of proving out our view.

Speaker 3

I'll

Speaker 7

leave it

Speaker 3

at that. But I mean, as you would imagine, impact for us, obviously, a financial perspective as this comes online here in early 'twenty seven.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Alexander Goldfarb with Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hey, good morning. Good morning down there. Just two questions. The first is on the power generation deal that you guys announced, is this tied directly to is is there any relationship with Five Point? And is this tied directly to that specific data center project?

Speaker 5

Or this is a sort of generic power generation deal that would apply for any, projects, data center project down there?

Speaker 3

No. Good good questions, Alex. So the, the agreement that we're talking through here is directly between Landbridge and the IPP. You know, there is the potential for Five Point's PowerBridge platform to step in in some capacity, but that's that's by no means firm either way. You know, I would say this was one where, you know, the IPP saw the value that that Landbridge brought to the table, was happy to do a deal with us.

Speaker 3

I think that said, as we've as we've said in the past, you know, the the beauty of the Five Point ecosystem is they've got, you know, they've got these different enabling entities to ensure that deals can get across the finish line to the benefit of all companies. And so when we think through what PowerBridge could bring to the table here, it's really it's really a question of, is there is there a gap between Landbridge and the IPP where maybe PowerBridge stepping in kids could fill that gap to ensure this project gets brought online? Uncertain whether or

Speaker 5

not that's needed at this

Speaker 3

point in time. But again, it's a valuable tool, I think, that we have available to us.

Speaker 2

Yeah. I mean, the one thing I would add is that the IPP is they saw the need for the power in the region just in general, not just as it related to data center opportunities. So we we see this as a as a great opportunity on on all fronts.

Speaker 5

And did you say the entity is called PowerBridge, or you were just using that term?

Speaker 3

That is no. So that is the Five Point entity that was announced earlier this year. That's not by Alex. That is that is not the IPP. No.

Speaker 3

This is a totally independent public IPP that is that is not in any way associated with with Five Point outside of, again, the potential that Power Bridge, which is a separate Five Point entity, could step in if there is a need.

Speaker 5

Okay. And then the second question is, you you guys you announced the Devon deal. I don't know if you announced all the economics of that, but obviously that doesn't take effect until, you know, 2027. You know, the data center thing is announced, but obviously that takes years. You guys clearly wanna grow EBITDA.

Speaker 5

So as we think about announcements that you make, it sounds I mean, just based on what you've announced so far, it there's like a twelve to twenty four months, you know, sort of lead time, if you will, before the EBITDA starts flowing or more like twenty four months, if you will. Is that the way we should think about it? So if we wanna as we model your growth over the next number of years, we should think about, hey. If the deal hasn't been announced by x date, you know, that means that revenue growth is gonna take two years longer before we're just trying to get a sense of you guys are very active, but, obviously, these things take a while to manifest and drop to the bottom line. So just trying to understand the EBITDA ramp relative to project announcement timing.

Speaker 3

So it it it very much depends on the project. I think when you think through, you know, power projects or renewable projects, those inherently have have longer time lines. When you think through some of these more these more, you know, water infrastructure, energy infrastructure type projects, those can be much quicker time line. I mean, the the Devon example here, I think, is more a reflection of them very much wanting to get ahead of future needs and and a willingness to to backstop that with this minimum volume commitment. And so not necessarily reflective of, call it, a build out time line or anything along those lines, but much more so Devon wanting to stay ahead of things, which, you know, we think is a very prudent move on their part.

Speaker 3

But when you look at, you know, other, you know, other commercial activity we have kind of in the hopper at the moment, you know, you obviously have the DPX Kraken deal that, you know, was both announced at the beginning of this year. It's already online today, and we'll continue to ratchet over the next several years is a good example of, you know, a meaningfully, call it, meaningful EBITDA contribution that can come online quickly and ratchet up quickly. And that's one that we'll see continue. You know, I think the Speedway project is another great example where, you know, we would expect to have that, you know, fully FID ed here within the next few weeks on the Waterbridge side, and you would start to see capital go out the door at the end of this year going into early next year. And that will we'll start to see EBITDA contribution for that, potentially at the end of this year, definitely early next year.

Speaker 3

So there again, like the sequencing and the timing, I think, is very much a byproduct of the type of activity it is, not necessarily indicative of all commercial activities that we work through.

Speaker 5

But can you just give us a sense of the EBITDA contribution from Speedway, Devin, that we can think about what's going to come online in the next twelve to twenty four months?

Speaker 3

So we haven't we haven't spoken to that publicly yet. I think once we get the opportunity to have speedway through FID, we can start giving the Street a little better idea in terms of the rationing of the cash flow there. I know previously we've discussed the potential for Speedway to be a 500,000 barrel a day project when it's fully online, which would equate to roughly $30,000,000 of cash flow in terms of royalties plus, obviously, the related surface activity that goes on. Now there'll be a sequencing and timing of those step ups. And once we get through FID, once we get that fully underwritten on the Waterbird side, we can message that a bit more clearly.

Speaker 5

Okay. But you said 30,000,000 plus some potential upside from that when fully online? That's right. Okay, cool. Thank you.

Speaker 5

Thank you,

Operator

Our final question will come from the line of Laurence Goldstein with Santa Monica Partners LP. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Good morning. I wonder if you could Hi. Wonder what you could say about the fact that every single major, let's call them, high-tech company, announces data centers all over the country. But we hear of nothing in the Permian Basin. Nothing with you.

Speaker 9

I'm not asking about your company specifically. I'm asking generically. Your neighbor, big landowner, TPL. It it astounds me that we don't hear a word. We hear, you know, data center, data center, data center, billions here, billions there.

Speaker 9

Why do you suppose we don't hear a word about in the Permian Basin?

Speaker 3

Yes. Hey. Good morning, Laurence. This is a very good question. So I think, ultimately, here, we're talking about a step out into a new region, away from major metropolitan areas, which is just different different for what a lot of these data center players have done historically.

Speaker 3

And and it's just taken time to get them familiar with the region, familiar with the risks, familiar with the opportunity set. I mean, ultimately, you know, we haven't gotten any pushback on just the fundamentals making so much sense where this is an inevitability. But you are talking about getting folks over the line in an area they're not just they're not familiar with yet or operating with or deploying large amounts of capital in in this kind of new area. And so, you know, we feel good about the discussions we're having. I imagine there are others in the Permian who feel the same way right now.

Speaker 3

It's just it's just taking the time to get, you know, these very, you know, large tech companies who are very risk averse, with stepping out into a new region. But, you know, ultimately, the fundamentals work. You know, I think they acknowledge that. And and so, from our point of view, it is it is an inevitability this gets across the finish line. And, you know, once that first domino falls, as you can appreciate, the rest of them start falling pretty quickly thereafter.

Speaker 3

It's just convincing that first player to ultimately be the one that announces the step out. And the only other thing I'd add is you are seeing growing comfort of folks heading into West Texas. So there's been a number of, projects announced in places like Abilene and Lubbock. And so certainly, they're starting to get growing comfort moving away from major metropolitan areas into other still populated areas in West Texas, but certainly not the Permian. But all of these trends, we think, continue to work, you know, to our advantage here.

Speaker 3

And, again, it's just it's gonna take that first domino to fall, and and we we think, you know, the fundamentals are just too good for that not to happen.

Speaker 2

Yeah. And those fundamentals are are easy to speak to. Right? It's access to large contiguous land, access to cheap power, both on grid and behind the grid as we talked through this opportunity with the the new IPP, and then, you know, access to water for cooling. So it it checks all the boxes a 100%.

Speaker 2

It's to Scott's point, once the first domino falls, I think, there'll be a lot more heading our way.

Speaker 9

You know, it sounds logical, but to me personally, it sounds illogical. By the way, the one thing that you don't have, which is an asset, is population in the area. And, I'm sure you're aware of, the articles, particularly, a lengthy one in The New York Times, I think, about two weeks ago about how some towns turn on the water faucet or the toilet. No water. And and yet you say they it takes a while to learn about what you have in the way of assets.

Speaker 9

Everything available and everything at the lowest prices. And, you know, Oregon or Pacific Northwest, Washington, they're there. They never heard of those places either. But it's so obvious what your assets are, and yet we've not heard a single company. So when you say it takes a while for them to learn about it, with all due respect, come on.

Speaker 9

They haven't heard of Texas.

Speaker 8

They haven't heard of it.

Speaker 3

We we 100% agree. And, you know, I I think from our seat, you know, coming from an oil and gas background, I think we're very, very familiar with just how great the the manpower and the talent is out in places like Midland. You know, we've seen just some very, very smart folks continue to pile into West Texas to support the oil and gas industry. And so, you know, we do think that, for folks who are used to working in, you know, got more of these tech hubs, It's just it's it's a foreign environment when when they think through places like Midland. But, again, it's from our point of view, it's a quick education effort to show them, like, you've got people coming in from top tier universities already stepping out in the West Texas to work in the oil and gas space.

Speaker 3

The talent's gonna show up for data centers. In fact, it's it's already there. And so, yeah. Look. We agree.

Speaker 3

All all the pieces all the pieces are there. The stage is set. The fundamentals ultimately are gonna be what dictates this happening, and we think it's an inevitability.

Speaker 9

Yeah. I understand you think it is. I think it is. A lot of people think it is. And I don't think what you've got, every asset required for a data center and by the way, you don't have a population, which is obviously an asset.

Speaker 9

What have you got? The biggest city down there in the basin, 15 people or something like that? Can't believe they haven't heard of it, that they aren't familiar with it. These are smartest people in the country. So I accept what you're saying, but I find it hard to believe.

Speaker 9

Yeah. There's something else. I have no idea what the something else is.

Speaker 3

But we we feel great about where we're at in a lot of those talks right now, and aim to bring the market some good news as it relates to that as quickly as we can here.

Operator

And that will conclude our question and answer session. I'll hand the call back over to Scott McNealy for any closing remarks.

Speaker 3

Yes. Thanks again for everyone participating today. As always, we very much appreciate the support and the engagement. Please feel free to reach out to us with any questions. But otherwise, we hope you all enjoy the rest of your summer.

Speaker 3

Thanks. Thanks.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.

Powered by Quartr