Host Hotels & Resorts Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
November 7, 2024

Key Takeaways

  • Hurricane disruptions: Four properties were temporarily closed due to Hurricanes Celine and Milton, with the Don Ceasar sustaining the most damage and now slated to reopen in phases beginning Q1 2025.
  • Q3 outperformance: Adjusted EBITDAre of $324 million and FFO per share of $0.36 saw a 5% and 9% rise, respectively, ex-insurance proceeds, while comparable hotel total RevPAR improved 3.1%.
  • Maui recovery boost: The “Ho’okipa” marketing campaign helped Thanksgiving and festive booking pace at Maui resorts jump over 35% and 65%, signaling an accelerating return of visitors.
  • Capital allocation strength: Repurchased $57 million of stock in Q3 with $685 million of buyback capacity remaining, and closed $1.5 billion in real estate deals at a blended 13.6× EBITDA multiple.
  • 2024 guidance maintained: Despite Florida hurricanes, full-year comparable hotel total RevPAR is expected to grow ~1% and adjusted EBITDAre is guided at $1.63 billion, a modest 1% downward revision.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Host Hotels & Resorts Q3 2024
00:00 / 00:00

There are 12 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the Host Hotels and Resorts Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Jamie Marcus, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations.

Speaker 1

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Before we begin, please note that many of the comments made today are considered to be forward looking statements under federal securities law. As described in our filings with the SEC, these statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties that could cause future results to differ from those expressed, and we are not obligated to publicly update or revise these forward looking statements. In addition, on today's call, we will discuss certain non GAAP financial information such as FFO, adjusted EBITDAre and comparable hotel level results. You can find this information together with reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP information in yesterday's earnings press release, in our 8 ks filed with the SEC and in the supplemental financial information on our website at hosthotels.com.

Speaker 1

With me on today's call are Jim Rizzolia, President and Chief Executive Officer and Saurav Ghosh, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Jim.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Jamie, and thanks to everyone for joining us this morning. Before we turn to the quarter, I want to take a moment to acknowledge the devastating effects of Hurricanes Helene and Milton, which made landfall in late September early October. We were deeply saddened to see the loss of life and damage the hurricanes brought. And while many of our hotels were impacted, we are very fortunate to advance that the employees at our properties remain safe throughout the storms. In response to the urgent needs of those impacted, we partnered with the American Red Cross, World Central Kitchen, Team Rubicon, Community Foundation Tampa Bay and Feeding Tampa Bay to deliver vital disaster relief support.

Speaker 2

Due to evacuation mandates and the loss of commercial power from Hurricane Saline and Milton, 4 of our properties were temporarily closed, 3 of which reopened within 10 days. The most significant damage occurred at the Don Cesar, which remains closed to guests. We are still evaluating the remediation and disruption impacts of the storms and we currently expect a phased reopening of the Don Ceasar beginning towards the end of Q1 of 2025. Please note that the Don Ceasar is still included in our comparable hotel results in the 3rd quarter, but it has been removed from our comparable hotel set in our full year guidance. It is worth noting that our resilience investments at the Ritz Carlton Naples paid off during both hurricanes.

Speaker 2

As a reminder, during the remediation following Hurricane Ian, we opportunistically enhanced the resiliency of the property by elevating critical equipment, improving dry flood proofing measures and accelerating future building envelope waterproofing replacements. As a result of these investments, we saw minimal water intrusion inside the resort despite a storm surge comparable to that of Hurricane Ian, and we reopened the resort 7 days after commercial power was restored. Following the success of these enhanced resiliency measures, we will continue to prioritize these types of investments across our portfolio over the near term. For additional details on our resiliency investments, please see our 2024 Corporate Responsibility Report, which details our CR program and strategy, our ESG initiatives and our industry leading accomplishments. It can be found on the Corporate Responsibility section of our website at hosthotels.com.

Speaker 2

Turning to our results in the Q3. We delivered adjusted EBITDAre of $324,000,000 and adjusted FFO per share of $0.36 As a reminder, in the Q3 of last year, our adjusted EBITDAre benefited from $54,000,000 of business interruption insurance proceeds, which led to a 10% decrease in our adjusted EBITDAre this quarter. Excluding the business interruption proceeds, our adjusted EBITDAre would have been up over 5% and adjusted FFO per share would have been up 9%. We delivered a year over year comparable hotel total RevPAR improvement of 3.1 percent, underscoring the continued strength of outer room revenue, while comparable hotel RevPAR was up 80 basis points. As a reminder, the operational results discussed today refer to our comparable hotel portfolio for the Q3, which excludes the Ritz Carlton Naples and the Alida Ventana Big Sur.

Speaker 2

Our 3rd quarter comparable hotel RevPAR came in slightly better than we expected despite weather impacts from the hurricanes in Florida during the last week of the quarter. While Maui is recovering, the year over year decline in RevPAR for Maui had an actual drag of 170 basis points in the 3rd quarter. As we have discussed over the past few quarters, this understates the true impact of the wildfires as we would have expected Maui to contribute 20 basis points to portfolio RevPAR growth in the Q3, giving the transformational renovation at Fairmont Kehlani in 2023 and the expected lift for 2024. As a result, the total estimated impact of the wildfires on 3rd quarter RevPAR is approximately 190 basis points. Following the anniversary of the tragic wildfires, we supported our managers, local tourism authorities and government officials in promoting the return of visitors to Maui.

Speaker 2

Our 3 hotels launched the Ho'okipa marketing campaign. Ho'okipa means the spirit of hospitality in Hawaiian. The marketing efforts included social media and TV ads, digital displays and email campaign and videos from each of our resorts that aired in Southern California during the month of September. Additionally, the Governor of Hawaii, the Mayor of Maui and the Head of the Hawaii Lodging and Tourism Association met with longtime supporters of Hawaii, the Los Angeles Rams and key travel partners across the Greater Los Angeles market to communicate the importance of tourism for Maui's economic recovery. The ramps have supported Hawaii over the years and part of the Governor's trip was aimed at formalizing the relationship between the two going forward.

Speaker 2

Thus far, the sales and marketing efforts are paying off. Thanksgiving and festive revenue pace for our 3 Maori resorts is up over 35% and over 65%, respectively, compared to the same time last year. We are encouraged that Maui is beginning to show improvements on its road to recovery. Moving on to business mix. Group room night revenue was up 1% in the 3rd quarter, driven by rate as group room nights were flat due to the recovery in relief rooms in Maui that were booked in the Q3 of 2023.

Speaker 2

Our property booked 212,000 group room nights in the year for the year, bringing our definite group room nights on the books for 2024 to 4,200,000 rooms, with total group revenue pace of approximately 5% compared to the same time last year. Business transit revenue grew 5% in the 3rd quarter as strong rate growth was driven by market and customer mix shifts. Turning to leisure, the unfavorable international demand imbalance held steady in the 3rd quarter. Frangent room nights sold at our comparable resorts were up 4% in the 3rd quarter driven by Maui. In addition, leisure rates remained resilient during the 3rd quarter.

Speaker 2

Frangement rates at our comparable resorts were up approximately 50% compared to 2019, which is in line with recent quarters, continuing to underscore the financial health of the affluent consumer. Auto room spending trends this quarter also continued to demonstrate the strength of group and affluent consumers. Comparable hotel total RevPAR grew over 3% in the 3rd quarter, which represents the largest spread to RevPAR growth in 6 quarters. As a reminder, in 2023, nearly 40% of our total revenue came from food and beverage and other revenue, and our 2024 guidance assumes a similar proportion. We continue to believe that total RevPAR represents a more holistic picture of our underlying business as our portfolio continues to benefit from substantial out of room spend.

Speaker 2

Turning to capital allocation. During the quarter, we repurchased 3,500,000 shares of stock at an average price of $16.33 per share through our common share repurchase program, bringing our total repurchases for the quarter to $57,000,000 Since 2022, we have repurchased $315,000,000 of stock at an average repurchase price of $16.27 per share, and we have $685,000,000 of remaining capacity under our share repurchase program. Looking back on our transaction activity this year, we acquired $1,500,000,000 of iconic and irreplaceable real estate and a blended 13.6 times EBITDA multiple based on estimated 2024 results. Thus far, the One Hotel Nashville and the Embassy Suites by Hilton Nashville Downtown, the One Hotel Central Park and the Ritz Carlton Oahu Turtle Bay are performing in line with our underwriting expectations. The brand and management transition at the Ritz Carlton Oahu Turtle Bay is going well and we expect continued growth as awareness of the rebranded resort spreads.

Speaker 2

Turning to portfolio reinvestments, our updated 2024 capital expenditure guidance range is $485,000,000 to $580,000,000 which includes approximately $225,000,000 to $255,000,000 of investment for redevelopment, repositioning and ROI projects $225,000,000 to $275,000,000 for renewal and replacement projects and $35,000,000 to $50,000,000 for property damage reconstruction. Included in the ROI projects is the Hyatt transformational capital program, which is on track and slightly under budget so far. We received $2,000,000 of operating guarantees in the 3rd quarter to offset business disruptions related to the Hyatt transformational capital program and we expect to receive an additional $3,000,000 this year, bringing the total operating guarantees to $9,000,000 in 2024. In addition to the capital expenditure range, this year we expect to spend $50,000,000 to $60,000,000 on the 40 unit residential condo development at our Four Seasons Resort Orlando at Walt Disney World Resort. The development is well underway and marketing efforts begin July.

Speaker 2

We anticipate the formal sales launch to begin later this month with closings to begin in the Q4 of 2025. More broadly, we have completed 24 transformational renovations since 2018, which we believe provide meaningful tailwinds for our portfolio. Of the 15 hotels that have stabilized post renovation operations to date, the average RevPAR index share gain is over 7 points, which is well in excess of our targeted gain of 3 to 5 points. Wrapping up, we continue to believe that Host is well positioned due to our investment grade balance sheet, our geographically diversified portfolio and our continued reinvestment in our assets. As we have shown, we are able to access many capital allocation levers to create shareholder value, and we will remain opportunistic going forward.

Speaker 2

With that, I will now turn the call over to Saurabh to discuss additional operational detail and our revised 2024 outlook.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Jim, and good morning, everyone. Building on Jim's comments, I will go into detail on our Q3 operations, updated 2024 guidance and our balance sheet. Starting with total revenue trends. Total RevPAR growth continues to meaningfully outpace RevPAR growth as both group and transient guests maintain elevated levels of out of room spending. Comparable hotel food and beverage revenue grew 6% in the 3rd quarter driven by banquet and catering.

Speaker 3

In fact, banquet and catering revenue achieved the strongest third quarter in host's history with contribution per group room night up 13% year over year. Transient guests showed continued willingness to spend as well with spa revenues up 5% and resort outlet revenue for occupied room up 3%. Overall, transient room revenue was up slightly compared to the Q3 of 2023, driven by the recovery in Maui as well as strong rate and occupancy growth in San Diego, New Orleans and Houston. From a leisure perspective, we are encouraged that Maui is beginning to show improvement. While RevPAR in Maui was down 19% in the 3rd quarter, total RevPAR was down only 10% as out of room spending trends returned with the traditional group and leisure guests coming back to the island.

Speaker 3

Looking at holiday progression, Maui is expected to shift from lagging to leading our portfolio. In the Q3, Maui represented a drag to portfolio results for both the July 4th and Labor Day weekends. Looking forward, and as Jim alluded to earlier, Maui is driving holiday performance in the Q4. Transient revenue pace for the total portfolio is up 2% for Thanksgiving week compared to the same time last year and festive period is up 20%. Business transient revenue was 5% above the Q3 of 2023 driven by rate strength.

Speaker 3

Overall, business transient demand was down 2%, driven by fewer government room nights. Encouragingly, demand from consulting firms increased this quarter, narrowing its gap to pre pandemic levels. Turning to group. Revenue grew 1% in the 3rd quarter, driven by rate growth and strong pickup in New Orleans, New York and Boston. As a reminder, group business faced tough comparisons this quarter due to the recovery in relief rooms booked in Maui last year.

Speaker 3

We estimate that Maui negatively impacted 3rd quarter group revenue growth by 5 70 basis points. For full year 2024, we have approximately 4,200,000 definite group room nights on the books, keeping us ahead of same time last year. Group rate on the books is up 3% and total group revenue pace is up 5% over the same time last year, bolstered by banquet and catering spend. Looking ahead, our 2025 total group revenue pace is nearly 5% ahead of the same time last year, driven by both rate and room nights. We continue to be encouraged by the citywide booking pace in San Francisco, San Antonio, Seattle, Nashville and New Orleans, all of which have citywide group room night pace up meaningfully compared to the same time last year.

Speaker 3

It is also worth noting that San Francisco citywide room nights are pacing up 40%. Shifting gears to margins. 3rd quarter comparable hotel EBITDA margin of 25.3% was 130 basis points below last year. The decline was driven by increases in wages and benefits. Additionally, we estimate a 110 basis point impact from Maui and the Hurricane Ian business interruption proceeds we received for comparable hotels last year.

Speaker 3

Turning to our revised outlook for 2024, despite the impact of Hurricanes Celine and Milton, we maintained our previous full year comparable hotel guidance growth midpoints. As a result, we anticipate comparable hotel total RevPAR growth of approximately 1% and comparable hotel RevPAR to be approximately flat compared to 2023. Our guidance assumes a continued recovery in Maui and steady demand trends in the Q4. We estimate the Maui wildfires will impact full year comparable hotel total RevPAR by 180 basis points and RevPAR by 220 basis points. Excluding business interruption proceeds received earlier this year, we expect full year adjusted EBITDAre to be impacted by approximately $75,000,000 relative to our pre fire estimate.

Speaker 3

We expect a comparable hotel EBITDA margin of approximately 29%, which is 90 basis points below 2023. We estimate a 30 basis point impact to full year comparable hotel EBITDA margin from Maui relative to our pre fire estimate, a 40 basis point impact from insurance and property taxes and a 110 basis point impact from wages and benefit rate increases, which is partially offset by a 90 basis point benefit from operational improvements. Our revised 2024 full year adjusted EBITDAre guidance is expected to be $1,630,000,000 a $15,000,000 or approximately 1% decrease over the prior midpoint as a result of the hurricanes in Florida. Off the $15,000,000 we estimate that $2,000,000 occurred in the 3rd quarter and $13,000,000 will occur in the 4th quarter. Our adjusted EBITDAre estimate includes approximately $57,000,000 from operations at the Ritz Carlton Naples, a decline of $5,000,000 compared to our prior guidance and $24,000,000 from operations at the Don Cesar, a decline of $9,000,000 compared to our prior guidance.

Speaker 3

In addition, it includes $11,000,000 from operations at Alila Ventana Big Sur. As a reminder, the Ritz Carlton Naples, Belila Ventana Big Sur and Vedan Cesar are excluded from our comparable hotel guidance for full year 2024. Turning to our balance sheet and liquidity position in the Q3, we completed the issuance of $700,000,000 of Series L senior notes at 5.5%. The proceeds were used in part to repay the outstanding revolver portion of our credit facility. Our weighted average maturity was 5.5 years at a weighted average interest rate of 4.8%.

Speaker 3

Our quarter end leverage ratio was 2.7 times and we currently have $2,300,000,000 in total available liquidity, which includes $240,000,000 of SS and E reserves and $1,500,000,000 of availability on our credit facility. In October, we paid a quarterly cash dividend of $0.20 per share demonstrating our commitment to returning capital to stockholders. As always, future dividends are subject to approval by the company's Board of Directors. To conclude, we are pleased with the performance of our portfolio and we are encouraged by steady business mix trends heading into 2025. We will continue to opportunistically allocate capital as we seek to elevate the EBITDA growth profile of our portfolio and increase shareholder value.

Speaker 3

With that, we would be happy to take your questions. To ensure we have time to address as many questions as possible, please limit yourself to one question.

Operator

Your first question comes from the line of Stephen Grambling with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Speaker 4

Hey, thanks for taking the question. I guess I'd like to touch base on the transaction market. You obviously were active this year with acquisitions. I'm curious how you're thinking about how the market might be evolving now and whether you'd be more likely to be a buyer or seller at this point if you're seeing any change in terms of who's actually an active participant either from people putting up assets for sale or people coming to you looking for assets for sale? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Sure, Stephen. I would say that until the last 90 days or so, really both buyers and sellers have been on the sidelines. The bid ask spread has just been too great and everyone was in a wait and see mode. Wait and see mode for a couple of different reasons. I think the fact that we're past the election now will clear one hurdle for a lot of people.

Speaker 2

They'll be able to wrap their arms around what the economic policies of the new administration are likely to look like over the near term. And the debt capital markets have become much more conducive to transacting. Rates have come down, spreads have come in, SASB financing is available. And I think that as we get into next year, you're likely to see private equity get back into the game and come off the bench. There have been some additional transactions out there that we have evaluated.

Speaker 2

Nothing has risen has beat the bar for us. And we're absolutely delighted that we were able to complete the 3 deals, 4 hotels and 3 transactions that we did earlier this year. Our balance sheet is a differentiator and will continue to be a differentiator for us. I think that we would have more competition today if those assets were brought to the market. Clearly, there would be because they're all attractive properties.

Speaker 2

They're all unique. They're all in great locations and one of a kind assets. So that said, relationships and reputation matter and we'll always, I think, continue to differentiate Host as we go forward. So our ability to move quickly with no need for financing is always a differentiator for us. I expect that over the course of the not the balance of this year so much, but next year, probably I know you hold me to this if it doesn't come true, but I'm willing to go out on a limb and say that at Alice, we're likely to hear about additional transactions coming to market because I do think that people have waited a long time.

Speaker 2

And the good news is that the pressure to sell wasn't there. And that's because fundamentally the business is very sound and resilient. Yes, we have our little bumps in the road along the way, but it's not like folks are rushing to exit at any price. So I think we'll see an active transaction market next year. And from a host perspective, we're likely to test the market ourselves with some of our non core assets to really understand pricing, assets that likely will need heavy CapEx investments that we just don't see.

Speaker 2

Good hotels, but not a long term fit for the portfolio given the direction that we have moved in over the last 7 or 8 years in terms of the types of assets we own and really with our focus being on free cash flow generation as a differentiator going forward. So we're likely to test the market. We'll see what pricing comes back at. If pricing is attractive, we'll sell. If it's not, we'll pull back and invest in the assets ourselves.

Speaker 2

We'll be hopeful to be able to be a continued net acquirer going forward. I mean, we sit here at 2.7 times leverage today. We have a lot of dry powder. And it will either be it will always be continuing to invest in our portfolio. Saurabh, I think mentioned in his comments that we've seen a 7 point yield index gain on average from the investments we've made.

Speaker 2

We bought back $57,000,000 of stock last quarter and we bought $1,500,000,000 of assets this year. So we'll look forward to continuing to grow the portfolio and we prefer to do it on a one off basis and not be in a competitive situation. But if we have to be in a competitive situation, we will And we'll just see what happens.

Speaker 4

Great. And maybe one unrelated follow-up for Saurav. I know we've talked about this on prior calls and maybe I missed this in your remarks. But I guess, are we still thinking about the underlying EBITDA? There's a lot of moving parts with the different acquisitions.

Speaker 4

There's the Don Cezara issues and insurance proceeds. Is the underlying EBITDA to build off of still kind of that $1,750,000,000 And I guess within that, does that have to include what level of recovery in Maui and how would you generally think about Maui kind of building back? Thanks.

Speaker 3

Sure. Yes, Stephen, it's still the $1,750,000,000 and I'll build it from the $1,630,000,000 you have all the different moving pieces. So starting off with the midpoint of our current guidance of $1,630,000,000 you would take out $40,000,000 of BI for this year. So $19,000,000 of it, Ian, that was $10,000,000 in Q1, dollars 9,000,000 in Q2 and then $21,000,000 BI that we received for the Maui wildfire. So that's the $40,000,000 that you would deduct.

Speaker 3

Then you would add about $49,000,000 or so for Turtle Bay and 1 Hotel Central Park. Add another $13,000,000 for Nashville and then the $75,000,000 to $80,000,000 which I'll get into a little bit more in terms of how we are thinking about recovery. Then you would add $5,000,000 for Alleva Bentay and then the $15,000,000 we talked about in terms of hurricane impact, you would add to that to get to a grand total of $1,750,000,000 That's what we really consider to be the true run rate when you think about adjusted EBITDAre. As it relates to Maui, as Jim and I sort of got into our prepared remarks, we're certainly encouraged by the transient trends and the pickup we are seeing specifically for Thanksgiving as well as for effective effectively around the week of Christmas and New Year's. The piece that is going to be a little bit challenging, and it will take a little bit longer to recover is going to be the group piece.

Speaker 3

Because if you recall beginning of this year, there certainly wasn't a clear message in Maui in terms of being open for business. Once we wrapped over the 1 year anniversary of the fire, that's certainly much more clear direction in terms of the island being open for tourism and welcoming guests back. The meeting planners didn't really have much of a chance in the beginning of the year to really book forward. So we didn't see much group booking activity into 2025 and into the future. We expect to see that really pick up beginning next year.

Speaker 3

So the group piece of the business and group for Maui across our hotels on a room night basis works out to be about 30% or so. And from a revenue perspective, it's around 20% of revenue to group. But it does build a meaningful base for the hotels, particularly with the Hyatt. That's going to take a little bit while to come back. So that $75,000,000 to $80,000,000 I mean, we don't have any budget yet, so I can't really give you a number.

Speaker 3

But what I would say is that the trends are encouraging from a transient pickup perspective and group is going to come back certainly it will just take a little more time probably towards the end of next year into 2026.

Speaker 4

That's helpful. Thanks so much.

Speaker 5

Sure.

Operator

Next question is from Michael Bellisario with Baird. Your line is open.

Speaker 6

Thanks. Good morning. Just sort of along the same lines like on the moving pieces and all your numbers in the models, can you maybe just take a step back? What's the clean run rate for the portfolio, both top and bottom line that you think everything's performing at today ex all the one timers? And then how might that be different or the same as you start thinking about looking out to 2025?

Speaker 6

Thanks.

Speaker 3

Just so I'm sure I understand the question. The clean run rate once you do all the puts and takes including the acquisitions, taking out the BI is the $750,000,000 I just walked through. A big component of that $750,000,000 is obviously the $75,000,000 to 80,000,000 dollars of Maui EBITDA that we are missing. The question really is for 2025, how much of that EBITDA comes back? For 2025, without getting into too much details because we don't obviously don't have budgets right now, I don't really have a good sense in terms of where top line and expenses will come in.

Speaker 3

But what we do know is that group booking pace is looking strong for 2025. We already have 2,800,000 group room nights on the books. We picked up about 400,000. Total group revenue is up, effectively 5% and group rate is up about 3.5%. So we're feeling pretty good about 2025 from group perspective in terms of what visibility we have.

Speaker 3

Specific to Maui, like I said, I think group is going to take a little bit of time to get back and unclear at this point in time, how much of that $75,000,000 to $80,000,000 will really be able to see in Maui.

Speaker 6

Got it. Sorry, I should have been clear. I was sort of referring to the current top line and bottom line growth rates, right? Like are you seeing do you think the underlying performance of the portfolio is 3% on the top line, 4% expenses, all the ex all the one time items, not really thinking about the absolute numbers, more about the growth rates ex all the one time items?

Speaker 3

You're saying for 2024 or into 2025?

Speaker 7

Just today, just I think

Speaker 6

as everyone thinks about is this a 2% RevPAR growth environment? Is it 3%, 4% expenses? What's kind of your view on where the portfolio is performing today and looking out of the 25 ex all these one time items? Just thinking about in terms of growth rates.

Speaker 3

Yes. If you think in terms of growth rates, I mean, this year would have just from a RevPAR perspective, given how much drag we're seeing from Maui would have been closer to a 3% RevPAR growth rate. And in that case, we would have actually seen margin expansion because our total expenses was up 2.8%. So net net for this year, we would have meaningfully outperformed relative to the industry just given the benefit we saw from all the capital investments we put into our hotels on the Marriott Transformation Capital Program. And as Jim spoke to, the index share gains that we saw, so it's sort of unfortunate that we've had a drag in terms of the Malue wildfire.

Speaker 3

Otherwise, certainly a 3% growth rate of RevPAR just for this year, and we would have actually seen about 10 basis points, 15 basis points margin expansion.

Speaker 6

Helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from Smedes Rose with Citi. Your line is open.

Speaker 5

Hi, thank you. I just sorry, I wanted to just clarify something on Maui. Could you just talk about what you're expecting there this year in terms of EBITDA, I guess, excluding the business interruption proceeds? So just get a sense of like what the gap is for $75,000,000 to $80,000,000 you're talking about potentially for next year?

Speaker 3

Sure. It's $97,000,000 excluding the Diaco fees.

Speaker 5

Okay. Thanks. And then I guess one thing you mentioned next year for the group outlook, the group calendars look good across the convention calendars look good. Any thoughts around sort of grouping up, I guess, into 2025 to help sort of lock in demand now and revenues? Or would you expect to keep more in line with where you've been historically in terms of the percent of overall group segmentation?

Speaker 3

Yes. I mean, honestly, it is really an asset by asset exercise that we go through. And we know for which years what the optimal group room night is and so that we can maximize yielding of the transient rate. So it really depends. But overall, I would say the mix is not going to shift meaningfully for the portfolio.

Speaker 3

We certainly focus on grouping up on across the board wherever it does make sense. And wherever we do have holes, we also like fill in with contract business. So you will see shift in contract business over the years. So the yield management is really asset by asset. The encouraging thing is there's few citywides that are certainly pacing very well for next year.

Speaker 3

And specifically for the host market, I would say San Francisco being up 40% from his standpoint, New York, San Antonio, Orlando, DC really makes up more than 40% right now of the group room nights that we already have on the books for 2025. So overall feel really good. And as we see the need for each of these assets and where the holds are, we're going to fill accordingly. Certainly hope that the strength in corporate group continues and the banquet and catering contribution that comes along with it to really drive total EBITDA.

Speaker 5

Okay. Thank you. Appreciate it.

Operator

The next question is from David Katz with Jefferies. Your line is open.

Speaker 8

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. I'd love some initial commentary around the labor market. I think there's a lot of potential puts and takes and opportunities that may or may not occur given the election outcomes. I know it's early and you've gone out on a limb elsewhere, so I'm not asking that.

Speaker 8

But any perspectives or thoughts you can share with respect to that and whether it's a plus would be great.

Speaker 2

Sure, David. Generally speaking, we are very pleased with the labor picture at our assets. We're not the manager. We're not the employer. But we have 2 of the very best in the business in Marriott and Hyatt in particular that manage the bulk of our portfolio.

Speaker 2

And they're an employer of choice. They are the opportunity that people search out if they want to make hospitality a career. So we're very encouraged going forward. We kept coming out of the pandemic. We got back to optimal staffing levels fairly quickly after we redefined and reinvented the operating model.

Speaker 2

So going looking forward, we're nothing but optimistic on the labor front. I don't see any issues that are going to present a problem for us as we get into 2025 and beyond.

Speaker 8

And then thank you. And if I may, I just wanted to follow-up on kind of leisure transient and maybe get one layer farther down. Are is some of the softness that we're discussing more a decision to go or no go? Or would you classify it more as a pushback on the level of rates and rate growth that were out there? How would we unpack that?

Speaker 2

Well, I think there are a couple of different components to the leisure picture. Go, no go, I'm not sure that that is that's really the bottom line, David. And I say that because if you look at international outbound air capacity versus inbound, we have seen that 120% number has held steady now for the last several quarters. So people are still traveling. They're spending money.

Speaker 2

They're just not spending it at our properties generally speaking. We're not seeing any pushback on ADR in our leisure transient ADR in our portfolio. We finished the Q3 with leisure transient ADRs up 50% over the Q3 of 2019. And that has held for 10 quarters in a row now. So people are still spending money.

Speaker 2

When they get to our properties, they're spending money out of the room as well. We continue to see records on a quarterly basis in terms of per occupied room spend at our outlets. We've seen spa revenues continue to increase, golf revenues continue to increase. So clearly the affluent consumer is still spending money. We believe that over time that the pendulum will swing back and we'll see a more normalized balance of international inbound versus international outbound.

Speaker 2

I think international inbound has held somewhere around 90% of 2019 levels, maybe even a little less than that. A lot of that could have to do with the strong dollar. So we keep our eye on a lot of different things as we're assessing the health of the leisure consumer.

Speaker 8

Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question comes from Chris Darling of Green Street. Your line is

Speaker 7

open. Thanks. Good morning. Going back to the Orlando condo development, can you walk through underwritten sales proceeds relative to your development budget there? And then are there any similar densification opportunities that you might pursue in the near term in other places within the portfolio?

Speaker 2

Sure. Are you talking about in terms of what assumptions we made with respect to top line sales?

Speaker 7

Yes, that would be helpful, all relative to your overall kind of construction budget there.

Speaker 2

Yes. So I think the construction budget was $150,000,000 to $170,000,000 and that really hasn't changed. We started in mid July the construction of the project and we anticipate starting sales in later in the this quarter, mid November, mid to the end of November. We're targeting completion of the mid rise. That's 31 of the 40 condos, I think in the Q4 of 2025 and then there are 9 villas that will be completed in the first half of twenty twenty six.

Speaker 2

So it's 40 units in total, and our anticipated returns are going to be in the mid to high teens cash on cash. So we will not provide our assumptions with respect to sales per square foot, but we underwrote it to a mid to high teens cash on cash return. And the construction budget is proceeding on time and within budget. So we're fairly confident that we're going to hit those numbers.

Speaker 7

Okay. That's fair enough. And I guess to the second half of my question, any similar opportunities that you might pursue in the near term elsewhere in the portfolio?

Speaker 2

Well, one of the really attractive attributes of the Ritz Carlton Oahu Toro Bay was a 49 acre parcel of entitled land for residential development that's immediately adjacent to the resort, a significant portion of which is oceanfront property. And you just don't find that type of opportunity in Hawaii. And that's one of the things that really drove us to complete the acquisition of Turtle Bay. We are still in the planning stages and we have not taken into consideration any EBITDA upside for the resort, but we believe there is going to be over time meaningful EBITDA upside at the risk itself as well as a development profit. And that is whether or not we sell the land or we joint venture the development of those 49 acres, which probably going to be somewhere plus or minus 2 50 units and it's likely going to be Ritz residential units, at least 50% of which will participate in the rental pool because that's just how things as a matter of law, that's how things happen in Hawaii.

Speaker 2

So it's an exciting project. It's a fairly large project. That's why we're considering joint venturing it or selling the property outright. But suffice it to say that we would expect to make a profit on the sale or development of the land and see meaningful upside to the resort, both from units being in the rental pool and a share of revenues with the owner as well as ancillary spend at the restaurants, golf and spa. That's the most exciting project we have.

Speaker 2

We are looking at potential development, which I can't get into any details at this point in time with you, potential residential development at another one of our resort properties, but that's in the very early stages. And as it manifests itself, we'll certainly share more details with you down the road.

Speaker 7

Okay. Appreciate the time. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Ari Klein with BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Speaker 9

Thanks and good morning. Maybe just going back to Matt and Maui, it looks like you slightly narrowed the expected RevPAR headwinds for the year in that market. I'm just curious if that was based on what you're seeing in Q4. And then, Saurabh, you mentioned group taking longer to recover in Maui. Can you just provide us where group transient currently stands from a delta perspective relative to pre wildfires?

Speaker 3

Yes, sure. So yes, if you recall last quarter we had said that the total Maui impact was about 250 basis points drag to the overall RevPAR. We have revised that to 2 20 basis points. In other words, it's actually improved by 30 bps. And yes, you are correct.

Speaker 3

It really is based on what we are seeing in terms of transient pace for Thanksgiving and for the festive period. So if you feel encouraged in terms of where things are heading from a transient perspective, I will say like where we are off, overall is about, call it, 20% or so in terms of room nights. The piece that is going to take longer to come back is, like I mentioned earlier, is going to be more the group side versus the transient. And for Maui, if I remember correctly, for our key hotels, pre fire, we did about 100,000 group room nights. And while we are pacing okay for 2025, we are still pretty behind double digits in terms of group pace.

Speaker 3

And that's the piece which we are keeping a close eye on as hopefully the beginning of next year we will start seeing group activity pickup. The transient pace is actually pretty similar to where we were pre fire at least for the Q4, which is very encouraging relative to sort of where we were back in before the fires occurred. So group is a piece we're keeping an eye on and hopefully we see that group activity pick up as we get into next year.

Speaker 9

Got it. Thanks for that color. And then Jim, I'm wondering if maybe you can provide us with a little bit more color on the risk calls in Wahoo performance and how that's trended post convergence?

Speaker 2

It's trending in line with our pro form a expectations, Ari. The transition is going well. At the present time, it's at the top of the list when anyone is searching for a Ritz Carlton. It's a very important asset to the Ritz Carlton brand. It's getting all the attention that is certainly warranted going forward.

Speaker 2

So we're excited about it. I mean we're working with Arte, developers who bought an adjacent parcel from Blackstone

Speaker 5

on

Speaker 2

a realignment of the golf courses. There are 2 golf courses there. They're going to lease 1 and manage the other one on our behalf. So everything is going according to plan. The asset was in terrific shape when we bought it.

Speaker 2

So no near term CapEx needs and we're seeing good pace over festive season and beyond into next year.

Speaker 3

Thanks for the color.

Operator

The next question comes from Chris Woronka with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Speaker 10

Hey, good morning guys. Thanks for taking the question. Jim, I wanted to kind of ask, year to date, I think you're running about 72% comparable occupancy. And if I look back to 2019, I think it was over 79%. And I'm curious and I know there's nuances and the portfolio is a little different.

Speaker 10

But do you guys see any impact from whether you want to call a shadow supply Airbnb or conversely maybe some of these soft brands or even kind of these new affiliation brands that technically aren't part of your major brands. Just any thought as to

Speaker 3

whether because it seems

Speaker 5

like group and corporate occupancy is and

Speaker 3

certainly leisure

Speaker 10

is pretty much as far back as it's going to get. So is there any thought on kind of where those lost occupancy points are coming from?

Speaker 2

Yes. Chris, the short answer is it's not as a result of shadow supply. And it's not as a result of new supply because the new supply picture has never looked better relative to what's being developed today as to other times in the cycle. I think what has happened and we have about I think we think it's 8 to 9 points of occupancy that we can still pick up. And we actually view that as a tailwind to the portfolio, not as a negative bias.

Speaker 2

Return to office is still slow to evolve in several markets, but it's coming back. And I think that is probably one of the biggest dynamic things that changed coming out of the pandemic. The good news is that Salesforce in San Francisco, they're going back to work. Amazon is going back to work. So a number of other big corporates are putting or mandating that their employees get back to the office.

Speaker 2

And we believe that over time, as the business transient travel continues to evolve and it has been evolving on a quarter over quarter basis, that we should pick up some of that occupancy gap relative to where we were in 2019.

Speaker 10

Okay. Appreciate the thoughts. Thanks, Jim.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Robin Farley with UBS. Your line is open.

Speaker 1

Great. Thank you. Can you give a little more clarity around leisure rates in the quarter on a year over year basis? And then kind of your expectation for 2025 in terms of what the leisure traveler, kind of outside of Maui, but just sort of broadly leisure rate may look like next year and also what it was in Q3 year over year? Thanks.

Speaker 3

On a year over year basis, Robin, it's relatively flat in a lot of the market to slightly down because you may recall that there were certain quarters last year, which was meaningfully above the 50% to 2019. It seems to have pretty much normalized around the approximate 50% over 2019. So for the most part pretty flat. From a demand perspective, that's been the case as well. Again, pretty much flat throughout the year, every single quarter that we look at.

Speaker 3

Actually, I believe it was down 3% year over year from a demand perspective in Q1, but then actually that demand improved as we went through. So again, close to flat, but not very far from flat and broad perspective year over year standpoint. Going into 2025, just given the consumer strength we have seen and given that there is hopefully more clarity around sort of macro the overall macroeconomic outlook. We believe that there is that the leisure is it has formed a new baseline. So effectively that's where we have settled down and given the growth expectations for next year from a GDP standpoint, from business investment standpoint and just overall macro outlook.

Speaker 3

And as Jim mentioned earlier, we expect that imbalance that currently does exist with international inbound outbound to at some point sort of revert to mean, that should definitely help leisure overall stabilize and we don't expect any degradation in terms of rate or demand.

Speaker 1

Okay, great. Thank you. And then just a quick clarification. When you were talking about the $1,750,000,000 run rate, were you including and I know that was like excluding business interruption from Maui. Were you including the theoretical like if you recovered $75,000,000 to $80,000,000 in Maui in that $1,750,000,000 I'm sorry, I just didn't catch you.

Speaker 1

You were sort of giving a lot of puts and takes. In that $1,750,000,000 that includes what kind of recovery in Maui? Thanks.

Speaker 3

Yes. That did assume the $75,000,000 to $80,000,000 That was effectively the long term run rate. So it wasn't necessarily which 125,000,000

Speaker 1

Okay, great. That's why I wanted to clarify. In other words, based on your other comments, it would seem like you're saying that's not where you'd be in 25. So I just that's why I wanted to clarify. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thanks.

Speaker 3

That's correct. Yes.

Operator

Thanks. The next question comes from Duane Pfennigwerth with Evercore ISI. Your line is open.

Speaker 11

Hey, good morning. Just on San Francisco, if I heard you correctly, any times of year or specific citywide events that stick out? I think you said room night pacing is up 40%. And I wonder if there's any more underlying detail you have on that.

Speaker 3

Sure. That's effectively for overall citywide, we're pacing it over here. Specifically, in terms of group room nights for us, we already for San Francisco have approximately 220,000 group room nights on the books, which is about close to 30% up year over year from a pace perspective. It's still obviously far from where we were back in 2019, but nonetheless good progress and we're really encouraged by the way it's outpacing the 25. And you recall, 2026 is World Cup and Super Bowl in San Francisco.

Speaker 3

So again, good things to come for San Fran.

Speaker 11

Okay, great. And then just to you touched on this in prior questions, but on capital allocation, if we think about ROI projects, additional acquisitions or buyback, I guess given your experience this year, are you leaning in any more of a direction, any of those 3 buckets going forward, just given your experience this year?

Speaker 2

Well, Duane, I think that it goes without saying that the easiest opportunities to underwrite with the greatest degree of certainty are those that are in our existing portfolio. So we are well into the Hyatt transformational capital program. We look forward to continuing to invest in those assets and complete that program in the near term next year. ROI projects, we're always looking for places to go continue to put money in our existing portfolio as well. Stock buybacks, 3,500,000 shares, dollars 57,000,000 this last quarter.

Speaker 2

We will continue to be opportunistic on buying back stock. And acquisitions, of course, if they make sense for us. And we're sitting here at 2.7 times leverage today. We can take our leverage up to somewhere to 3x, 3.25x comfortably. So we have a lot of significant amount of dry powder to allocate capital across all those various opportunities.

Speaker 11

Thanks, Jim.

Operator

This concludes the question and answer session. I will turn the call to Jim for closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Well, thank you again for joining us today. We always appreciate the opportunity to discuss our quarterly results with you. And we look forward to seeing many of you in Las Vegas in the coming weeks and at other conferences over the course of the year. Have a great day.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.

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