Allstate Q2 2021 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
August 5, 2021

Key Takeaways

  • Allstate reported Q2 revenues of $12.6 billion (up 21.6% YoY) and adjusted net income of $1.1 billion (up 40%), driving a 23.8% return on equity for the trailing 12 months.
  • The company’s transformative growth plan focuses on two pillars—gaining personal P&C market share (fuelled by the National General acquisition) and expanding Protection Solutions—with digital innovation like Drivewise telematics and the new ArityIQ platform.
  • Property & liability policies in force grew 12.1% YoY (with P&C market share up ~1 point), as Allstate brand new business rose 6.7% and direct auto sales jumped 31% in the quarter.
  • The reported combined ratio was 95.7% (a 5.9-point increase vs. Q2 2020) driven by reversion from pandemic-low accident frequency, while the underlying auto combined ratio remained a strong 91.8% and the expense ratio fell 0.4 points ex-items.
  • Net investment income climbed to $974 million (up $754 million YoY) on $649 million of performance-based gains, and Protection Services revenue rose 27.1% to $581 million as Allstate Protection Plans and Arity expanded.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Allstate Q2 2021
00:00 / 00:00

There are 10 speakers on the call.

Operator

You for standing by, and welcome to the Allstate Second Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question and answer session. As a reminder, today's program is being recorded. And now I'd like to introduce your host for today's program, Mr.

Operator

Mark Nogel, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Jonathan. Good morning. Welcome to Allstate's Q2 2021 Earnings Conference Call. After prepared remarks, we'll have a question and answer session. Yesterday, following the close of the market, we issued our news release and investor supplement and posted related materials on our website at allstateinvestors.com.

Speaker 1

Our management team is here to provide perspective on these results. As noted on the first slide of the presentation, our discussion will contain non GAAP measures, which are reconciliations in the news release and investor supplement and forward looking statements about Allstate's operation. Allstate's results may differ materially from these statements, So please refer to our 10 ks for 2020 and other public documents for information on potential risks. And now, I'll turn it over to Tom.

Speaker 2

Good morning and thank you for joining us today. Let's start at Slide 2. Today, we're going to link operating results Strategy in order to show how we expect to continue to generate shareholder value. So Allstate strategy has 2 components, increased personal profit liability market share And Xpand Protection Solutions, which are shown in the 2 ovals on the left. The transformative growth plan to increase market share and personal profit liability has This strategy will drive market valuation by executing, innovating and focusing on long term value creation.

Speaker 2

So in the first half of the year, we executed well for customers, we executed well financially and for shareholders, as you can see on the right hand panel. Property liability market share increased by approximately 1 percentage point through the acquisition of National General. Allstate protection plans We continue to grow rapidly by broadening the product offering to include appliances and furniture and expanding availability to Home Depot stores. Strong execution generated excellent financial results with revenues increasing 23.8% compared to the prior year, Adjusted net income of $3,000,000,000 and a return on equity of 23.8% for the last 12 months. Shareholders benefited from a 50% increase in the quarterly common dividend and a reduction in outstanding shares by 2 point 4% just this year under the current $3,000,000,000 share repurchase program.

Speaker 2

Yesterday, the Board approved a new $5,000,000,000 common share repurchase program, which represents approximately 13% of current market capitalization, and we expect to complete that by the end of March of 2023. Let's continue on Slide 3. In addition to operating execution, we're innovating to create long term value. The transformative growth plan to create a digital insurance company is making good progress. Today, we're going to spend time talking about the distribution component of that plan.

Speaker 2

Allstate is amongst the leaders in telematics capabilities with Drivewise in the industry's largest paper myoproduct, Myowise, which offers customers unique value. Arity, our telematics service platform company, recently launched ArityIQ, which when combined with lead cloud and transparently platforms will integrate telematics information into pricing at the time of quote rather than at the times We enhanced our competitive position in independent agent channel by using National General to consolidate and improve our IA business model. We executed agreements to sell Allstate Life Insurance Company and Allstate Life Insurance Company, New York to redeploy capital out of lower growth and return businesses and reduce exposure to interest rates. Increasing market share, while maintaining attractive returns and expanding protection solutions through transformation, targeted acquisition and divestitures will create shareholder value. Slide 4 lays out Allstate's strong second quarter performance.

Speaker 2

Revenues of $12,600,000,000 in the quarter increased 21.6% compared to the prior year. That largely reflects the National General acquisition and higher net investment income. Property liability premiums earned And policies in force increased by 12.9% and 12.1%, respectively. Net investment income of $974,000,000 increased Over $0.75 billion compared to the prior year quarter, reflecting $649,000,000 of income from the performance based portfolio. Net income of $1,600,000,000 was reported in the 2nd quarter compared to $1,200,000,000 in the prior year.

Speaker 2

Adjusted net income was $1,100,000,000 or $0.03.79 per diluted share as you can see from the table on the bottom. That's a 40% increase from the prior year quarter. Allstate's excellent execution and strong operating results in the quarter contributed to that return on equity, which you just mentioned of 23.8% over the last 12 months. Let's move to Slide 5, Our progress on building transformative growth business models. So transformative growth is a multiyear initiative And what we're working to do is build a low cost digital insurer with broad distribution.

Speaker 2

And that's going to be accomplished through 4 areas: expanding customer access, Improving customer value, increasing sophistication and investment in customer acquisition and deploying new technology ecosystem. In transformative growth, you wouldn't do it all in one day, of course, so it's got 5 phases and substantial progress has been made in phases 2 and 3. Phase 2 successes include Improving the competitive price position of auto insurance, protecting margins by reducing costs, new advertising was launched with increased investment. We also are off to an excellent start with National General. And of course, the phases overlap, so progress is also being made in Phase 3.

Speaker 2

So we're transforming the distribution platform, including supporting transition of Allstate agents to higher growth and lower cost models, which we'll discuss on the next slide. Improving customer acquisition sophistication will lower costs relative to lifetime value. We continue to focus on lowering underwriting claims expenses Deliver lower cost protection to customers. And we've designed the new technology architecture. We've coded much of the new applications.

Speaker 2

The next step for us is to launch an integrated system with 1 product in one state. Turning to Slide 6, Let's review how we're transforming the Allstate agents, Allstate direct sales and independent agent distribution platforms to grow market share. The illustrated slides on the right side of the slide, provide a view into our growth expectations by channel over time. Starting with Allstate exclusive agents, we're making progress transitioning to a higher growth and lower cost model. This year, we changed agent compensation by increasing the business compensation opportunity and reducing a bonus paid on policy renewals.

Speaker 2

We expect to continue the shift from renewal compensation to new sales because it aligns with what consumers want. Consumers want assistance with purchasing insurance more than they want routine policy service. To lower costs for agents, we're digitizing processes, redesigning products to increase self-service And expanding centralized service support. We're also working to reduce agent operating expenses and real estate costs. These changes will improve the customer value proposition with lower cost and easier service.

Speaker 2

Now of course, you're not Do this in one day either. So a multiyear transformation transition program is in place to support existing agents. We've initiated it and it has different levels of Based on agent performance. Given this transition, we reduced new agent appointments last year, which has had a negative impact on New business levels. But as Mario will discuss next, this has been offset by higher productivity from existing agents.

Speaker 2

At the same time, we have 2 new agent models in market, which have personal touch, but a lower cost structure. All of these Changes are supported by more competitive auto insurance pricing and increased marketing spending, which is designed to continue to grow. As you can see on the right, the net impact of these changes for the Allstate agent channel is to be flat to a slight decline in sales in the short term, but increased growth thereafter. The Allstate direct sales effort leverages the capabilities that we built for the Esurance brand. And we've shifted our advertising focus away from Esurance We're totally focused on the Allstate brand and utilizing the direct channel for Allstate branded sales as well.

Speaker 2

The pricing is lower than the Allstate Agent model since it doesn't come with the help of an agent. And as this business grows, we're improving our operational and marketing effectiveness. Direct sales now represent 29% of new auto business sales and we expect that to continue to grow rapidly as you can see on the right. Independent agent distribution also represents an attractive growth opportunity. The acquisition of National General enhanced our capabilities in this channel and they added 4,000,000 policies in force.

Speaker 2

Additional growth is expected by broadening the product portfolio from high risk drivers to middle market auto and home insurance Due to the existing agent relationships, we also expect to increase the number of agents actively engaged in selling national general products. So So when you combine this effective and efficient distribution with more competitive auto insurance pricing, enhanced marketing, advanced pricing in telematics In the digital experience, that's the transformative growth plan that will drive property liability market share growth. So, Mario will now discuss the 2nd quarter results in more detail.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Tom. Turning to Slide 7, let's dive deeper into near term results on our multifaceted approach to grow property liability market share. As you can see in the chart on the left side of the slide, Property liability policies in force grew by 12.1% compared to the prior year quarter, primarily driven by National General and growth in Allstate brand new business. National General, which includes Encompass, contributed growth of 4,000,000 policies and Allstate brand property liability policies increased in the quarter, driven by growth in homeowners and other personal lines. Allstate brand auto policies in force declined slightly compared to the prior year quarter, but increased sequentially for the 2nd consecutive quarter, including growth of 111,000 policies compared to prior year And as you can see by the table on the lower left.

Speaker 3

The chart on the right shows a breakdown of personal auto new issued applications compared to prior year. We continue to make progress in building higher growth business models as we look to achieve leading positions in all three Primary distribution channels. The middle section of the chart on the right shows Allstate brand impacts by channel, which in total generated a 6.7% increase in new business growth compared to the prior year. Modest increases from existing agents, Excluding new appointments and a 31% increase in the direct channel more than offset the volume that would normally have been generated General also added 481,000 new auto applications in the quarter. Let's turn to Slide 8 to review property liability margin results In the Q2, the reported combined ratio of 95.7% increased 5.9 points compared to the prior year quarter.

Speaker 3

This was primarily driven by increased losses relative to the historically low auto accident frequency experienced in the prior year quarter Due to the pandemic, increased losses were partially offset by lower pandemic related expenses, Shifting to the chart on the bottom right, We continue to make progress in reducing our cost structure. This enables improvement in the competitive price position of auto insurance and investments in marketing and technology, while maintaining strong returns. The total property liability expense ratio of 24.7 In the Q2 decreased by 7.1 points compared to the prior year, again driven by lower coronavirus related expenses. This was partially offset by the amortization of purchased intangibles associated with the acquisition of National General, Restructuring charges and a 0.7 point increase from higher investment in advertising. Excluding these items, as shown by the dark blue bars, the expense ratio decreased by 0.4 points in the Q2 compared to the prior year period, decreased 1.7 points below year end 2019 and 2.5 points below year end 2018, reflecting continued progress in improving cost efficiencies.

Speaker 3

Claims expenses Have also been reduced through innovations such as quick photo claim, virtual assist and aerial imagery, which also improves the customer experience. These claim improvements are not reflected in the expense ratio, but are in the loss ratio and also help maintain margins. Moving to Slide 9, let's discuss how our auto insurance profitability, which remains very strong and is still favorable to pre pandemic levels Despite pandemic driven volatility, Allstate Protection auto underlying combined ratio finished at 91.8. As you can see from the chart, the level remains favorable to 2017 through 2019 historical second quarter and year end levels, despite increasing by 9.4 points compared to the prior year quarter. The increase to the prior year quarter reflects a comparison to a period with historically low auto accident frequencies.

Speaker 3

The improvement relative to historical levels is driven by auto accident frequency Remaining below pre pandemic levels, partly offset by auto severity increases and competitive pricing enhancements. To illustrate the pandemic driven volatility, Allstate brand auto property damage gross frequency Increased 47.3 percent from the prior year quarter, but is 21% lower than the same period in 2019. Auto severity increases persisted relative to the prior year quarter and pre pandemic periods across coverages, Largely driven by the shift in mix to more severe higher speed auto accidents and rising inflationary impacts in both used car values And replacement part costs. The incurred severity increases are running higher than general inflation, which are reflected in the recorded combined ratio. To counteract rising severity, we are leveraging advanced claim capabilities, predictive modeling, Advanced photo and video utilization and deep expertise in repair process management to enable a scaled response to inflation and supply constraints.

Speaker 3

Targeted price increases will also be implemented as necessary to maintain attractive auto insurance returns. Now let's shift to Slide 10, which highlights investment performance for the 2nd quarter. Net investment income $974,000,000 in the quarter, which was $754,000,000 above the prior year quarter, driven by higher performance based income as shown in the chart on the left. Performance based income totaled $649,000,000 in the 2nd quarter As shown in gray, reflecting both idiosyncratic and broad based valuation increases in private equity investments and to a lesser extent gains from the sales of real estate equity. Market based income shown in blue was $3,000,000 above the prior year quarter.

Speaker 3

The impact of reinvestment rates below the average interest bearing portfolio yield 2nd quarter totaled 2.6%, reflecting income as well as higher fixed income and equity valuations. We take an active approach to optimizing our returns per unit of risk over appropriate investment horizons. Our investment activities are integrated into our overall enterprise risk and return process and play an important role in generating shareholder value. We draw upon a deep and experienced team of roughly 350 professionals to leverage expertise in asset allocation, portfolio construction, Fundamental research, deal leadership, quantitative methods, manager selection and risk management. While the results for this quarter were exceptionally strong, Particularly for the performance based investments, we manage the portfolio with a longer term view on returns.

Speaker 3

At the right, We have provided our annualized portfolio returns over a 3, 5 10 year horizon. As disclosed in our investor supplement, our performance based Portfolio has delivered an attractive 12% IRR over the last 10 years, which compares favorably to relevant public and private market comparisons. Our performance based strategy takes a longer term view where we seek to deliver attractive absolute and risk adjusted returns and supplement market risk with idiosyncratic risk. Moving to Slide 11, Protection Services continues to grow revenue Revenues excluding the impact of realized gains and losses increased 27.1% to $581,000,000 in the 2nd quarter. The increase was driven by continued rapid growth in Allstate Protection Plans And expanding marketing services at Arity due to the integration of LeadCloud and Transparently, which were acquired as part of the National General acquisition.

Speaker 3

Policies in force increased 15.5 percent to $147,000,000 also driven by Allstate Protection Plans and supported by the successful launch with The Home Depot in the Q1. Adjusted net income was $56,000,000 in the 2nd quarter, representing an increase of $18,000,000 compared to the prior year quarter, driven by profitable growth at Allstate Protection Plans And profits at Arity and Allstate Identity Protection. Allstate Protection Plants generated adjusted net income of $42,000,000 in the 2nd quarter and $155,000,000 over the past 12 months. Now let's move to Slide 12, which highlights Allstate's attractive returns and strong capital position. Allstate continued to generate attractive returns in the 2nd quarter With adjusted net income return on equity of 23.8 percent for the last 12 months, which was 5.8 points higher than the prior year.

Speaker 3

Excellent capital management and strong financial results have enabled Allstate to return cash to shareholders, while simultaneously investing in growth. We continue to provide significant cash returns to shareholders in the 2nd quarter through a combination of $562,000,000 in share repurchases and $245,000,000 in common stock dividends. We announced the acquisition of SafeAuto in June, Leveraging National General's success in integrating companies to accelerate growth. The current $3,000,000,000 share repurchase program is expected to be completed in the Q3. And yesterday, the Board approved a new $5,000,000,000 share repurchase authorization To be completed by March 31, 2023, this represents approximately 13% of our current market capitalization.

Speaker 3

This new authorization continues Allstate's strong track record of providing cash returns to shareholders and reflects in part The deployable capital generated by the sale of our life and annuity businesses. Moving to Slide 13, It should be clear that Allstate is an attractive investment opportunity. When you invest in Allstate, you get ownership of a company with advanced capabilities And a clear strategy, delivering superior financial results relative to peers and the broader market. The table below shows Allstate across key financial metrics over the past 5 years compared to the S and P 500 and property casualty insurance peers With a market cap of $4,000,000,000 or more. As you can see by the four measures on the top, operating EPS, operating return on average equity, Cash yield and total shareholder return, Allstate is consistently ranked in the top 2 or 3 amongst its peers.

Speaker 3

In the case of operating EPS and cash yield to common shareholders, Allstate is in the top 10% and top 15% respectively compared to the S and P 500. Moving down one row, Allstate's top line revenue growth relative to peers and the S and P 500 Is in the middle of the pack. We are committed to accelerating top line performance through transformative growth and Innovate and Innovating Protection while continuing to deliver excellent financial results. Moving down to the price to earnings ratio, Allstate is well below average, 8 out of 10 P and C peers and in the 10th percentile amongst the S and P 500. This is an attractive valuation Given our market leading capabilities, excellent returns, future growth prospects and commitment to accelerate growth.

Speaker 3

Now let me turn it back over to Tom.

Speaker 2

If I turn to Slide 14, let's finish where we started with a more macro and longer term view of Allstate's Execution, innovation and long term value creation. This is the whole report card. This is what you get by investing in Allstate. Empowering customers with protection is a core part of our shared purpose. We provide a broad set of protection solutions with over 180,000,000 Protection policies, of course, you see our name while you're watching TV, you're in Walmart, you're in Target,

Speaker 4

you're in Costco, you're in

Speaker 2

Home Depot. Allstate is ubiquitous out there protecting customers. We constantly achieve industry leading margins on auto and home insurance and have attractive risk adjusted investment returns. As a result, the adjusted Net income return on equity has averaged 15.6 percent from 2016 to 2020, ranking number 2 in our peer group. This has led to a 14.9% annualized total shareholder return over the last 5 years.

Speaker 2

We have a history of innovation. Transformative growth is a multiyear personal property liability strategy to build a digital platform that offers low cost affordable, simple and connected protection solutions. We're simultaneously innovating protection by expanding through telematics, product warranties and identity protection. In telematics, we've taken a broad and aggressive approach to the insurance offerings and the creation of Aerie, a leading telematics business. Allstate is also innovating in corporate citizenship, focusing on climate change, privacy and equity.

Speaker 2

For Example, we used an underwriting syndicate for a $1,200,000,000 bond offering last year that was exclusively minority women and veteran owned banking enterprises. Long term value is also being created through proactive capital management and strong governance. Over the past 5 10 years, we've repurchased 25% 50% respectively of outstanding shares. Among the S and P 500, Allstate is in the top 15% of cash provided to At the same time, we've successfully invested over $6,000,000,000 in acquisitions, including Allstate Protection Plans, Allstate Identity Protection And National General. And of course, strong governance is key to delivering those results.

Speaker 2

Allstate has an experienced and first management team and Board with relevant This is acknowledged by the leading proxy advisory firm that awarded Allstate the task score for governance. Execution, innovation and long term value creation will continue to drive increased shareholder value. With that context, let's open the line for your questions.

Operator

Our first question comes from the line of Greg Peters from Raymond James. Your question please.

Speaker 5

Good morning. So I'd like to go back to Slide 5, Tom, And where you lay out the transformative growth strategy. And in the Phase Two area you report on substantial progress being made in terms of improved competitive price position in auto insurance. When I went to your supplement, I observed that the average gross premium And the auto brand continued to be lower relative to prior quarters. And I'm just curious how you think about pricing today given the increase in frequency and certainly the increase in severity In the context of your strategy to having improved competitive price position?

Speaker 2

Okay. Let me start and then I'll get Glenn to jump in. First, in terms of transformative growth, We made a conscious strategic decision to improve the competitive position of auto insurance. When we looked at our cost structure, we We looked at where other people were, we decided we needed to be more competitive on price. And so we've been working on that.

Speaker 2

We've reduced our costs. We've reduced price. We know We're more competitive in the market. Not because you can't really look at the average prices, Greg, because they everybody starts in a different place. So if you're at 100 and I'm at 95%, and you go down 2%, doesn't make you really it makes you more competitive, but not competitive.

Speaker 2

So we look at close rates. And we know our we look at the when people come to us, they quote what percentage do we close. And when the close rate goes up, you assume you're more price competitive and you have a better value proposition. And in fact, that's been true this year, Which is one of the reasons why our new business is up. Now we do that, of course, with great surgical precision.

Speaker 2

So let me maybe provide an overview of auto insurance profitability because it was focused so many of the reports issued last night and then Glenn can jump into what he's got going forward. But and I'll start with the analytical structure that I use to evaluate our performance in ways that hopefully will be helpful from an investment perspective. The headline would be to evaluate starting with the current absolute number, Don't use one analytical method to assess the future and build in a margin for error. So the current combined ratio for auto insurance this quarter generated an attractive When you look at the number, it's a good return on capital. Looking forward, of course, is what I need to do and investors need The forecasting challenge is that the volatility of the components is so high that it's hard to do a quarterly forecast It's accurate enough to make an important decision.

Speaker 2

So for example, let's take the percentage is up and down. They're really hard to evaluate. The outcome of 50% decrease And a 30% increase is a 65%, a 45% decrease and a 35% increase. It sounds pretty similar, right? But it's a 74%.

Speaker 2

That small five point difference on each side creates a 9 point difference on margins that are typically less than that. So given the volatility of the percentage changes, we build in margins for Aeroh. So as it relates to our projections, the forecast so far this year has been pretty good. Severity was higher than expected, but given the volatility of those percentages in the environment, we made sure there was enough margin in pricing And reduced expenses. So as a result, our absolute level of profitability was good and better than many of our competitors reported results.

Speaker 2

So the overall goal, of course, is profitable growth. And the best way to manage that total is then you focus on the components, Whether that's state by state, line by line or inside the actual cost structure. So Glenn has Establish goals for the rest of the year on price increases, severity control and expense reductions. And we have the processes, the math, the state managers that are Enable us to achieve and adapt, which we have a consistent track record of doing so. I think when I see people making Percentage changes over each quarter and looking at the percentage change of us versus the percentage change of competitors.

Speaker 2

And like when you got the numbers moving around this fast, you Really have to go back to the absolute and say, did you make money? How did you make money? And how do you make sure you keep making money going forward? With that, let me turn it over to Glenn, who can talk a little bit about what he's going to get planned for the rest of the year.

Speaker 4

Great. Thanks, Tom. And Greg, If I go to the first part of your question on price position, the best measure of price competitiveness is our close rates and our close rates are up. So we've seen a good result on the fact that for a few years, as Mario covered earlier, we've taken expenses out of the system. We've taken those expenses and essentially allowed customers to get better value from us and that's improving our close rates, which has helped.

Speaker 4

The second part, when you talked about going forward with frequency and severity, as Tom said, we have a pretty good forecast on frequency and it's Continue to be lower when you go on a 2 year basis. The 1 year comparisons right now are interesting on just about everything. But on a 2 year basis to pre pandemic, there continue to be meaningfully lower. Some of that will be just the new different world that we're in with fewer people working in office Buildings and traveling in rush hour, some of that will revert back over time, but we've had really good forecast on that. The frequency has been higher.

Speaker 4

I'm sorry, the severity has been higher with inflationary factors. And so we're looking at that and where we have Pricing, we will. And I guess when you put them together, the key is in how we've been forecasting and when we look at when the line will cross. And what I mean by that is, we knew that look severity is compounds over time. So once you're a couple of years in, which we are now when you're comparing to 2019, you've got a couple of years of severity increases.

Speaker 4

At some point, it's going to be greater Then the benefit that is persisting on frequency and you cross that line. And so we're Pretty good at forecasting about the time we're crossing that line. We moved prices slightly down. In some places, We're still good with those down. We still have opportunity to even be more competitive in other places.

Speaker 4

We're going to have to take them up. But We don't have wild swings happening in terms of our pricing. We've been pretty careful and cautious to do things that we thought were sustainable And we're going to continue to do things that we think are sustainable. So as we take expenses out continuing to do for the remainder of the year, The loss cost management that the claims team is doing, in our pricing actions, we think there's more ground we can make up from a competitive position standpoint.

Speaker 5

That was a very thorough answer. I was going to ask a question on expenses, but I got to just follow-up on your point on severity And crossing the line, as you know, there's so much oxygen going on around inflationary pressures in the marketplace. And some of it's viewed maybe perhaps being transitory, some of it being structural and longer term in nature. And I guess what I'm looking for from you guys is what's your view on the severity trends? And can you give us some Perspective on that crossing the line analogy that you used, Glenn?

Speaker 2

Well, Greg, we don't do forecast of combined ratio or the components of the combined ratio. But I think when you look at and interesting though, when you look at the supplement, you'll see the paid on property damages down. That's not related to the way we're booking. That just happens to be paid and there's some timing. So when you look at severity, you have to Clear difference between what you pay and what you think you're going to pay eventually.

Speaker 2

And so we think severity we know severity is up this year. We booked it up Both Q1 and Q2, even a little more. And but so Glenn's got to factor it into his pricing. Glenn, anything you want to say about claims? Maybe talk about a little bit about severity control.

Speaker 4

Yes. And just to the point about what's transitory and what's The miles driven, it isn't just what are the total miles driven out there? It's by state, it's urban versus rural, it's commuting time versus not, It's weekend versus weekday and night day. So when we look at all of this, we have a view on what we believe is Transistorian, what is more sustainable on frequency as well as on severity. But the controls that we have from a claims standpoint, we have a We have a really strong claims team and they use, 1st of all, proprietary models that we have that escalate claims That either need to be expedited, moved faster or need to be prepared for defense in terms of injury claims.

Speaker 4

Tell us the likelihood of litigation, the likelihood of representation, things like that. We leverage our scale really well In that we have long term pricing deals on a lot of the parts and labor that are out there for whether it's auto or home. So some of that acts as a hedge towards inflation and it's not perfect because we're in the same inflationary environment that others are in, But we do with our buying power have good long term deals that we've negotiated that help to hedge that to some degree. And then really strong quality process that we manage across the system. So we feel good about our ability to Manage within the environment, but also we have to price for it as it moves.

Speaker 4

And I guess I'll close by saying, if Anything in our history has been proven, I would say. We do a really good job managing to our returns. And Mario and Tom talked about those in the opening quite a bit. We will manage to produce the right returns and when we need to take price to do that, we do it.

Speaker 5

Makes sense. Thank you for the answers.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Paul Newsome from Piper Sandler. Your question, please.

Speaker 6

Good morning. A little bit more of a key off of the last questions. But One of the questions I'm getting a lot is whether or not there will be sort of regulatory issues with auto in particular if we need to get I'd love to hear your thoughts on how that gets managed at Allstate.

Speaker 2

Let me maybe start with low macro and then Glenn can talk about anything we're doing specifically. Paul, I think the first place I would start is, the regulatory reaction tends to start with what consumers think. And consumers are in a pretty good place. Our customers are in a pretty good place. We gave them $1,000,000,000 back last year.

Speaker 2

There's plenty of if you look at savings rates and cash and bank accounts and all kinds of stuff, consumers are not I have some pricing, Bill. There's not a lot of pricing pressure coming from consumers these days. So we can the kind of percentage increases We need are not so large. You're not talking about double digit price increases that caused everybody to call their insurance regulator and say, hey, I don't like this world. So we don't see a lot of consumer pushback.

Speaker 2

When you look at the regulators, we have a good relationship with our regulators. I mean, we were 10 days in last year, I mean, Glenn, I think it was like 10 days into March, we were like, oh my gosh, we got to do something about this. So we went out proactively to We don't have a requirement to do this. We have no contractual requirement to do it, but we know you'll want us to do it. So we're going to do it In advance upfront, we led the industry in doing that.

Speaker 2

So we feel like we have good relationships with them. We've been balanced as to how we approach it. And we've been able to earn the economic rents in the marketplace by and compete Successfully. And Glenn, anything you want to talk about in terms of specifics? Well, first, I think

Speaker 4

it's a really good point with some of the credibility we earned last year because

Speaker 2

it's not

Speaker 4

only The SIP, the return of the money, but the fact that we went out there and proactively had the idea to Say, we're just going to waive the requirement that you have an endorsement to do deliveries, let's say, with your car and turn your car into an economic vehicle for you, For people that were out of work, they appreciated the fact that we were thinking about the way people were having to live their lives and not having to have to go buy an endorsement to do it. We just gave it away for free and filed that across 50 states in a matter of days, and special payment plans allowing people So I think we did build a

Speaker 2

lot of credibility with that.

Speaker 4

But I think that the core of this is the regulators have actuaries and we have actuaries and they are math based. So this is sometimes you get into some emotion with it, but it's really a fact based and math based situation. So when severities go up or loss ratios move, their actuaries see what our actuaries see and we have

Speaker 2

great When rental cars go from $50 a day to $100 a day or used car prices to 40%, regulators know you got to make

Speaker 6

Makes sense. And I'd like to ask a homeowners question. I tend to think that people underestimate the variability and impact of the home business. Can you just talk a little bit about What's going on there from a pricing and competitive perspective and whether or not the outlook is more favorable over time or But it does seem to be if anything, it seems like that you're selling more of it. So it seems like it's a lead product for you at the moment.

Speaker 2

Well, Paul, Thank you for recognizing how successful we've had in homeowners. Like there are days when I feel like people think the only thing we sell is auto insurance And Mike, we make a lot of money in homeowners insurance. We're really good at it. It does require lower margins than auto insurance Because you got to put up a lot more capital because of the volatility, and you don't get a lot of investment So we've been very good at. Glenn, do you want to talk about how we're doing this year?

Speaker 2

Yes. Oh, boy, do I.

Speaker 4

So I appreciate that, We feel really good about where we are in homeowners. So I'll give you a quick number on the last 5 years. 89 combined ratio, That's recorded combined ratio, not underlined. And we've made just over $4,000,000,000 in the past 5 years of underwriting profit. So we're good at this.

Speaker 4

I don't mind being bold enough to say that we I think we have a sustained and systemic advantage in homeowners That we've proven over a long period of time and it goes to the claims capabilities, the cat management capabilities, our reinsurance system that we have, our risk selection, Our product capability and pricing, so it's a pretty deep skill that's been honed over a long period of time that we're able to leverage. And so When you look at, there's no question that inflation is hitting the homeowner side hard and you got weather events. And you look at what it's doing to the industry more broadly, than us. And there's going to be folks taking a lot of rate out there. I think you've heard that from them.

Speaker 4

And our product is such that like year over year, we're at 6% On average premium, even though we took only 3.5 points of rate because built into it, there's some inflationary factor. So we're really well positioned to continue to make money at it, protect a lot of people. And last point is, It goes to what Tom talked about earlier about transformative growth. You look at the independent agent system, we bought National General in Primarily to really have a ticket into that system where they have great systems, a lot of appointments, great relationships And they're good at some products. Well, we're really good at home.

Speaker 4

You get that home product into the IA channel And I think it's going to sell well. We're going to protect a lot of people. We're going to help IACE grow.

Speaker 6

Thanks guys. Appreciate it.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of David From Evercore ISI, your question please.

Speaker 4

Hi, good morning.

Speaker 7

And just on frequency, and I guess just a question, maybe you could clarify how that trended throughout the quarter by month, And maybe just talk about what you're seeing today. And should we be thinking about frequency being more flat with 2019 combined with 14% to 15% severity increase versus 2019 that you guys called out in the 10 Q?

Speaker 2

Well, David, I'll get Glenn to answer the question on frequency. I'm not sure where the 14% to 15% came from, but And how you factor it, what period of time you're focused at, is that 2 years, is that 1 year, Because you can't take a 2 year trend and extrapolate it on to annual trends is what I maybe that's what I heard. But Glenn, you want to talk to us about frequency?

Speaker 4

Sure. Yes. No, I would not the short answer would be, I would not say you should just expect a 0 frequency trend relative to 2019. While we don't publish any forecasting on frequency, I think broadly People in the industry have talked about the fact that even safer cars have tended to have a little bit of a tailwind for frequency, even take away the pandemic for a moment That year over year, we've had a long term steady decline in frequency and so you've got a couple of years of that as you compare to 2019. On top of that, we see and I alluded this a little bit before, we see a really material change in the way people are driving.

Speaker 4

So even when you see the aggregate number of miles driven coming back still lower, but closer to 2019 levels, Who is driving, when they're driving and how they're driving is changing materially. So you see about a 4 or 5 point difference between The net change of urban driving being down more than rural driving. So you look at an Allstate Book of business where we sell predominantly through exclusive agents, our exclusive agents are in more populated markets that tends to Favor the way the frequency comes through. You look at the type of driving that's done. I mentioned before, commuting is down significantly more than non commuting.

Speaker 4

So a quick stat for you as we look at a lot of these details. Weekend driving is actually higher right now than 2019 was. People just want to get out. Weekday driving is materially lower. And so and particularly in rush hour, so when you see less congested roads in The time period when the predominance of accidents happen in those morning and afternoon commutes, That is helpful to particularly in our book of business, the way frequency comes through.

Speaker 4

So there are elements that will come back. It will come back differently. The only thing I'm confident in saying is that the world will look exactly the same after the pandemic than before. And that will mean that People drive and move differently, but we see some non transitory or temporary impacts to frequency

Speaker 7

Got it. Okay. Thanks. And Tom, yes, I was referring to Page 63 of the 10 Q, which is, yes, that 14% to 15% is over 2 years. So you're right, it's about 7% on average per year.

Speaker 7

I guess, just a follow-up just on the rate actions, that you're thinking about taking. I just saw, I think it was like a 5% rate increase that you filed in Georgia recently. Maybe could you just talk about how widespread the rate increases are that you want to put in? And Maybe just talk a bit more about how you think that might impact the growth trajectory going forward?

Speaker 2

Well, we don't We've got plans for the rest of the year as to where we think we need to increase price, but we don't give those out For competitive reasons and we also need the regulators to agree. So I would just say that we think we will you should Rely on the fact, David, that we know how to make money and we're focused on making money. As to the competitive business, I think it depends what other people do. So you heard yesterday, if you listened to the Progressive call, they're all in on raising prices, cutting advertising, Changing underwriting stuff. So we think that gives us room to adapt and continue To grow and make money and make sure that we can recover costs as they go up.

Speaker 2

Other competitors are in different places, But we feel good about where we're at, like transformative growth, like, if you started off and said, would you want to have a pandemic and a huge drop in frequency For a year to do transformative growth, you probably would say, I don't know, like it's a lot of volatility to manage through. On the other hand, I think in our particular case, it's worked well

Speaker 7

Got it. Thanks. Is it your sense that the rest of the industry is going to start raising prices?

Speaker 2

If you look at what they've done, it's the only thing we can really And there have been more rate increases this year than I think probably people would have predicted if you asked them in the 4th Last year, and that would include us. Like if you just said, what do we think everybody was going to do this year, we wouldn't have thought they had to go up as much as they did. But we also didn't think severity was going to be as high as it is. So we're increasing ours and they're increasing theirs. But we think our relative advantage Given our sophistication in pricing, given our reduction in expenses, given what we're doing on a long term basis We get expenses down even further, puts us in good place.

Speaker 2

So we don't see anything happening that tells us we can't So we'll be on the path to grow market share. The specific roads we go down might be a little different, But we're still feeling, Mike, that goal is still there or the objective is to achieve.

Speaker 4

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Shields from KBW. Your question,

Speaker 8

please. Thanks. I wanted to dig in a little bit to Allstate Direct. I just want to understand the thought on the pricing strategy. And what I mean by that is, I think we've got demographic trends favoring direct distribution, but also 2 massive competitors.

Speaker 8

And I want us to know whether The competitive posture is that you have to be in line with where Progressive and GEICO are? Or, can you benefit enough From these demographic trends to achieve your growth goals.

Speaker 2

I'm trying to sort through Maher Heard. The first, direct should be priced for what you get, like you should get what you pay for. So When you buy Allstate Direct, it's, I think, going on average about 7% lower than if You buy from an agent because it doesn't come with help, like, and so that's you get what you pay for. And there are people there are some demographic shifts to that, but Some of it's not there are some young people who want help, and some older people who don't want help. And so we're there Focused not as much on demographics of those channels, but as the customer value.

Speaker 2

As it relates to our competitive position In each channel, we believe you should have a competitive price position in each channel like for like. So if you're buying from GEICO or Progressive and you're buying direct and From Allstate, you're buying direct. You should be the same kind of value. Now it gets a little nicer when you figure out what price is because what the limits are and all kinds of It's complicated fast, but the conceptual approach would be be competitive in channel based on the value you deliver to shareholders For the customers, Glenn, how would you is there other thing I would add to that? Yes.

Speaker 4

Going to the point about where do we get out just the demographic shift versus Being more competitive, clearly, it's a growing channel. So if you are if you're Sitting in the boat and the current is taking you in a certain direction, so that there's something to you really should be there. And that's why we're there. It's why transformative growth, Why we wanted to be in all channels and where customers want to buy. So I think there's some benefit to that.

Speaker 4

But the bigger benefit is 2 other things. One would be being competitively priced, that's why we're going after expenses, that's why we did the pricing differential that Tom talked about. And the third one, Which frankly maybe even the most important, is just your execution. And it's the fact that we have We've used the capabilities of Esurance, but we're still newer at being a large National player with the brand we've got of Allstate doing this. It's building the capabilities, whether it's web, sales processes, Marketing sophistication, integration of marketing into it, so that we are winning our fair share there because You got to get the price to be competitive, but you also have to be great at the

Speaker 2

process itself. So if you go back to That slide where we show the 3 different channels. Direct is up. As we said, it's now 29% of sales. We expect it to continue to go up, as Glenn said, as we get better.

Speaker 2

There are some shifts to that channel, if you just look globally. Some of that's because more people feel comfortable buying over the web and not going through some of that. Some of that is just because direct has a whole bunch of advertising and it drives people to it. But we're, as Glenn pointed out, in that boat and increasing our capabilities. But that doesn't mean we're waving the flag on people to people exchange.

Speaker 2

And so the key part of transformative growth is There are people who want help. We just need to give it to them at a lower cost, and that's what we're working on. So people were more than happy to pay A lot of money to or not a lot, but to be paid for to help to buy the insurance. They just don't want to pay 10% for ongoing service when they can do self-service, it is not much to be done or you can do it at lower cost centrally. So that's our shift in transfer, but we're not waving the flag on person to person sales.

Speaker 2

In fact, we're leaning in and saying we have a great position, We have a great brand. People know us. We just need to do it more effectively and create higher growth models. So that will take us some time to transition As we talked about, like I don't expect the Allstate agent business to jump up the way you'll see the direct business increase over the next 12 months. But I do think it's got great long term potential and we're investing heavily in making sure those agents Can deliver what people want if they want help buying products.

Speaker 8

Okay. That was very, very helpful. Thank you. Quick follow-up, if I can. Has the, I guess, recent severity issues in both auto and home, have those Change the timeline for rolling out the standard products on National General's platform?

Speaker 4

Short answer would be no. We think we can be really competitive in that market and we're excited to get into the independent agent channel and Do it as quickly as we can. We'll have some of our middle market products this year on the NatGen platform branded as National General, an Allstate So we'll get the benefit of the Endorsed brand. And then over the next 2 years, we'll be rolling that out as quickly as we can.

Speaker 8

Perfect. Thank you so much.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Phillips, Morgan Stanley. Your question please.

Speaker 9

Hey, thanks. Good morning. In your introductory comments on severity, you talked about some other ways to counter it Besides the target price increases, could you expand upon how those maybe how those will help severity issues? I didn't quite get all the list you were talking about. Maybe go through those in And talk about how they can help you counter severity besides price?

Speaker 4

Sure. Thanks, Michael. It really is about Claims capabilities and paying what you owe and being fair to folks, but making sure you don't pay more than you owe as So we have inflationary factors, for example, say on materials for homeowners. Having purchasing power and having really good deals in place over the long term on flooring, on roofing And other products used in home repair helps hedge that inflation. And With our size, with our buying power and with the capabilities of our claims team, we've been able to do that and helps hedge it.

Speaker 4

Again, I'm not suggesting it eliminates The problem of inflation, but it does help mitigate it, so that not all of that cost is passed through your customers. Because And I view the job to our customers, obviously, we got to put them back to where they were. We've got to charge people an appropriate price And given the best value possible and part of that is mitigating the cost of claims. So that was in the Purchasing power. The proprietary models I mentioned before is we've just invested a lot in our Analytics and data capabilities over the years in order to flag claims that were at risk for accelerating costs, so that we could get it into the right experts' hands at the right time.

Speaker 4

And it allows us to do a better quality job on those and also manage the costs.

Speaker 2

Okay. Thank you

Speaker 9

for that. One other quick one if I could then. You had a lot of talk on the direct To consumer channel for auto and clearly that's a growth area. What's your view on that channel Longer term for the homeowners market?

Speaker 2

We think it's good. I mean, I think people do want sometimes a little more help on their home because they care more about their home. But we think that those people who are comfortable using advanced technology,

Speaker 8

Okay, cool. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thank you for taking that. Let me just close on a few things. First on investment results. I totally understand the view that one would not fully count the huge increase in performance based income. But when I read some of the reports, I'm like, I think it's fair to say it was an outsized quarter.

Speaker 2

But that doesn't mean that our long term results should be ignored. We're good at investments. We've had Our acquisitions are performing well, whether that be Allstate protection plans, which we didn't really get questions on today. I just want to remind you, we bought that company 4 years ago at $1,400,000,000 It's now over $1,000,000,000 in revenue. It's Growing at 27% a year, it made $155,000,000 which means we paid 9 times earnings For our business, it's growing 27%.

Speaker 2

So we think it's worth a lot more than that. National General, we also think we'll be highly successful, We're off to a really good start there. You can see that in the current numbers. And it's not just the $4,000,000 policies we have. By the way, When you look at the net cash we had to lay out after statutory capital, I do not believe we could have acquired 1% market share by putting a couple of $1,000,000,000 into advertising.

Speaker 2

So we think it was also just an economic growth opportunity straight up, Forget the strategic potential of further growth. And then share repurchases, we continue to really do well. This is the biggest Share repurchase program we've ever announced both in dollars and percentage of market capitalization, not to be overlooked. So Thank you for participating today. We had great results this quarter.

Speaker 2

We look forward to talking next quarter.

Operator

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.

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