Juniper Networks Q3 2021 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
October 25, 2021

There are 14 speakers on the call.

Operator

Greetings. Welcome to the Juniper Networks Q3 2021 Financial Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. Please note this conference is being recorded.

Operator

I will now turn the conference over to your host, Jess Lubert. You may begin.

Speaker 1

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, and welcome to our Q3 2021 conference call. Joining me today are Rami Rahim, Chief Executive Officer and Ken Miller, Chief Financial Officer. Today's call contains certain forward looking statements based on our current expectations. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties and actual results might differ materially.

Speaker 1

These risks are discussed in our most recent 10 Q, the press release and CFO commentary furnished with our 8 ks filed today and in our other SEC filings. Our forward looking statements speak only as of today and Juniper Our discussion today will include non GAAP financial results. Reconciliation information can be found on the Investor Relations section of our website under Financial Reports. Commentary on why we consider non GAAP information a useful view of the company's financial results is included in today's press release. Following our prepared remarks, we will take questions.

Speaker 1

We ask that you please limit yourself to one question so that as many people as possible who would like to ask With that, I will now hand the call over to Rami.

Speaker 2

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining Today's call to discuss our Q3 2021 results. We experienced very strong demand during the September quarter and delivered a 5th consecutive quarter of year over year growth even though supply chain challenges impacted revenue in the period. Orders saw another quarter of mid teens year over year growth when adjusted to account for extended lead time. On an unadjusted basis, orders grew by more than 50% year over year for a 2nd consecutive quarter And our ending backlog has now increased by more than $1,000,000,000 as compared to year end 2020. Order momentum was strong across verticals, customer solutions and geographies with each of these categories Needless to say, our team is executing extremely well.

Speaker 2

Our strategy is working and the investments we have made in technologies that enhance customer operations and improve the end user experience, What we call experience first networking are allowing us to differentiate across the markets we serve. This tactical differentiation, along with the investments we've made in our go to market organization, are paying off and enabling us to take share and capitalize on some of the big market transitions that are beginning to unfold across the verticals we serve. This is particularly true in the enterprise market, where customers are increasingly recognizing the value delivered by platforms such as Mist And Astra that dramatically reduce deployment time, eliminate trouble tickets and reduce mean time to resolution for network problems. These platforms are not only enabling us to win new logos in the campus and the data center, but also to pull through other Juniper In the cloud and service provider verticals, We're seeing strong early adoption of our 400 gig capable platform due to the strength of our Junos Evolv operating system, Our differentiated silicon capabilities and the deep engagement we maintain with these important customers. These factors are not only enabling us to maintain our core franchises, but also to secure new footprint, including a large new hyperscale WAN deployment that should present tailwinds for our business over the next few years.

Speaker 2

I'm also encouraged by the early customer interest in our Metro routing portfolio, which addresses a large and Fast growing market where historically we have in place. We expect this opportunity to steadily ramp through the course of next year As new products come to market and service provider 5 gs investments steadily increase, the bottom line I remain very optimistic regarding our future prospects despite the supply chain challenges we are currently navigating. I believe these challenges are likely to prove transitory in nature and the strong order momentum we're seeing and the backlog we have developed sets us up extremely well to deliver improved growth and profitability in 2022 and beyond. While it remains early and we'll provide a more detailed 2022 outlook when we report our Q4 results Based on current backlog and the order strength we're continuing to see in the market, we currently expect to deliver at least mid single digit Sales growth and at least a point of operating margin expansion in 2022. Our expectations for 2022 do not assume Now, I'd like to provide some additional insights into the quarter and address some key developments we're seeing from a customer solutions perspective.

Speaker 2

Starting with our automated WAN solutions, While revenue declined year over year due entirely to supply chain constraints, we experienced another quarter of strong order growth With solid momentum in both our service provider and cloud segments, we saw healthy demand across both our MX and PTF product families And strong adoption of our newer products as well as our automation software portfolio. Our 400 gig solutions are performing well and enables us to not only protect our existing footprint, but also to secure new wins that include several large opportunities With our cloud customers, including the hyperscale opportunity I previously referenced, driven in part by these opportunities, Our cloud orders saw a 2nd consecutive quarter of triple digit growth year over year. While we are continuing to see strong customer demand for our automated WAN solutions, these products are currently the most impacted by supply chain challenges. As a result, we continue to expect revenue from this segment to be within the range of our long term model, Calling for a 1% decline to a 3% growth this year despite the strong demand we are seeing. Our cloud ready data center solutions experienced 26% year over year revenue growth in Q3 And another quarter of encouraging order trends from our cloud, enterprise and service provider customers.

Speaker 2

We continue to see strong momentum with new logos and deals greater than $1,000,000 As I mentioned last quarter, Astra is creating a significant buzz in the market, which is not only leading to more software opportunities, but also full stack data center wins. Customer interest in our cloud ready data center portfolio is high and we continue to be optimistic about the outlook of this business. Based on the momentum we're seeing, our cloud ready data center business is now tracking to meet or exceed the high end of our long term model Looking for 5% to 9% growth year over year. Finally, our AI driven enterprise solutions Significantly outpaced the market and grew 35% year over year. Our Mist AI differentiation continues to win in the market as wireless orders experienced another record quarter with triple digit growth and a record number of deals greater than $1,000,000 Our mystified revenue of wireless LAN, wired access, Marvis virtual network And associated EX pull through nearly doubled year over year and we experienced record EX pull through in the period With this pull through revenue growing more than 200% year over year.

Speaker 2

This momentum enabled EX to achieve the highest level of sales since 2014. We expect this momentum to continue in future quarters as customers increasingly recognize the value of AI driven cloud operations, including new and innovative features such as EVPN DXLan fabric management in the Mist Cloud, which was launched this quarter. On a year to date basis, our mystified revenue has more than doubled year over year. We are also seeing very positive results with our AI driven SD WAN solution, which earned Juniper distinction as the only visionary In the Gartner WAN Edge Magic Quadrant published last quarter, we saw a record quarter for our SessionSmart router portfolio acquired from 128 Technology with triple digit year over year growth and key wins in various sectors like retail and banking, plus especially strong traction with the federal government. In addition, branch SRX sales last quarter hit a 2 year high.

Speaker 2

The pipeline for our AI driven SD WAN is strong as both prospects and partners are gravitating towards the unique benefits provided by Juniper AI ops with assured client to cloud experiences. We are particularly encouraged by the number of full stack multimillion dollar wins we are seeing in the campus and branch, where companies are turning to Juniper for a combination of their wired access, wireless access and WAN edge needs. Examples include a prominent retail chain in North America, a multinational energy company, a European multinational retailer, A leading international construction company in Europe and managed services providers in North America and Europe. This highlights the value of our AI driven enterprise offerings to customers and partners across all verticals and all geos. We believe Mistai continues to offer unique and market leading differentiation, including self driving operations and predictive actions driven by our virtual network assistant, Marvis, resulting in the best user and operator experiences.

Speaker 2

I am very pleased with the momentum we're seeing in this business and now expect our AI driven enterprise solutions to see at least 20% growth in 2021. Our security revenue experienced strong results in Q3 With total revenue growing 9% year over year and product revenue increasing by 16% year over year, which marks a 3rd consecutive quarter of double digit product growth. Strength was broad based across our high end, Midrange and branch SRX products as well as our virtual SRX offerings. Our connected security strategy is gaining traction in the Because the convergence of networking and security provides us with a competitive advantage and we continue to receive 3rd party accolades on our solutions from organizations such as ICSA and NetSecOpens often Testing all competitors in head to head tests. We believe our technical strength in both security and networking We'll continue to provide tailwinds in future quarters and should enable us to grow our security business during the current year.

Speaker 2

Our software momentum accelerated in Q3. Software and related services revenue grew 67% year over year As we experienced growth with ratable subscriptions, solid uptake of our Flex software licenses and strong sales of certain perpetual unboxed licenses. ARR grew 34% year over year driven by a combination of missed subscription, ratable security software offerings and the related services associated with these software offerings. We experienced Record software orders in the quarter due to broad based strength across verticals and customer solutions. Momentum is Strong in both ratable subscriptions offerings as well as on Box Flex licenses.

Speaker 2

Based on the momentum we're seeing, We're currently tracking ahead of the long term total software and ARR targets we presented at our recent Investor Day. I'd like to mention that our services team delivered another solid quarter and continued to grow on a year over year basis Due to strong renewals and service attach rates, our services team continues to execute extremely well to ensure our customers receive an excellent experience. I would like to extend my thanks to our customers, partners and shareholders for their continued I especially want to thank our employees for their hard work and dedication, which is essential to creating value For our stakeholders, I will now turn the call over to Ken, who will discuss our quarterly financial results in more detail.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Rami, and good afternoon, everyone. I will start by discussing our Q3 results and end with some color on our outlook. We ended the Q3 of 2021 at $1,189,000,000 in revenue, slightly below the midpoint of our guidance, but up 4% year over year and 1% sequentially. The modest revenue shortfall as compared to our guidance due to the negative impact of supply chain constraints. Non GAAP earnings per share was $0.46 in line with our guidance.

Speaker 3

During the Q3, momentum in product orders remained strong, showing exceptional year over year growth for the 2nd consecutive quarter. We saw significant order growth across all verticals, all geographies and all customer solutions. Some of this order strength continues to be attributable to industry supply chain challenges that are causing certain customers to place orders early In an effort to secure supply when needed, even after adjusting for these early orders, total product orders are estimated to have grown After adjusting for early orders, it's important to mention that our backlog has increased by more than $1,000,000,000 relative to the start of the year. Looking at our revenue by vertical, on a year over year basis, cloud grew 20%, Enterprise grew 7% and Service Provider declined 6%. We saw double digit year over year order growth in Service Provider.

Speaker 3

However, the timing of shipments due to supply constraints impacted revenue. Turning to customer solutions, on a year over year basis, Cloud ready data center increased 26% and AI driven enterprise increased 35%. Automated WAN Solutions revenue was negatively impacted by supply constraints and declined 12% year over year. However, Orders grew double digits versus the last year. Total software and related services revenue was $204,000,000 which was an increase of 67% year over year and ARR grew 34% year over year.

Speaker 3

As Rami mentioned, we are pleased that our software related metrics were at record levels in the 3rd quarter and are tracking ahead of the targets we shared at our Investor Day in Security product revenue grew 16% year over year. In reviewing our top 10 customers for the quarter, 6 3 were service provider and one was in enterprise. Our top 10 customers accounted for 31% of our total revenue, consistent with the Q3 of 2020. Non GAAP gross margin was 60.1%, which was above our guidance midpoint, primarily driven by favorable product If not for elevated supply chain costs due to COVID-nineteen, we would have posted non GAAP gross margin of Approximately 61.5 percent. Non GAAP operating expense increased 8% year over year That was essentially flat sequentially, slightly below our guidance midpoint.

Speaker 3

Non GAAP operating margin was 16.6 for the quarter, which slightly exceeded our expectations. We exited the 3rd quarter with total cash, Cash equivalents and investments of $1,800,000,000 Cash flow from operations was $137,000,000 in the 3rd quarter. From a capital return perspective, we paid $65,000,000 in dividends, reflecting a quarterly dividend of $0.20 per share and repurchased $50,000,000 worth of shares in the 3rd quarter. Now I'd like to provide some color on our guidance, which you can find detailed in the CFO commentary available on our Investor Relations website. Consistent with prior quarters in 2021, the worldwide shortage of semiconductors and other components is impacting many industries, caused in part by the continuation of the COVID-nineteen pandemic.

Speaker 3

Similar to others, we are experiencing ongoing component shortages, which has resulted in extended lead times and elevated cost of certain products. We continue to work to resolve the effect of the supply chain challenges and have increased inventory levels and purchase commitments. We are working closely with our suppliers to further enhance our resiliency and mitigate the effects of recent disruptions outside of our control. We believe that even with these actions, extended lead times and elevated costs We believe we will have access to sufficient supplies of semiconductors and other components to meet our financial forecast. At the midpoint of our guidance, revenue is expected to grow 3.5%.

Speaker 3

This would be the 6th consecutive quarter of year over year revenue growth. We expect our 4th quarter non GAAP gross margin to decline sequentially due to higher costs related to supply constraints and product mix. If not for the elevated supply chain costs, we would have forecasted non GAAP gross margin of approximately 61%. We believe these elevated supply chain costs will prove to be transitory over time, but will likely remain elevated for the next several quarters. I'd like to point out that despite an expected sequential decline in non GAAP gross margin in Q4, on a full year basis, Our guidance remains approximately 59.5%, which is in line with what we provided previously.

Speaker 3

While there is a lot unknown about the future due to the pandemic and other macroeconomic uncertainty, we would like to provide a few comments on our outlook for 2022. Presuming no further COVID-nineteen related economic deterioration, based on the current order momentum we are seeing In the anticipated Q4 2021 ending backlog, we expect at least mid single digit revenue growth on a full year basis in 2022. In addition, we expect to see at least 100 basis points of non GAAP operating margin expansion on a full year basis. This guidance is not dependent on improvements in lead times or easing of industry supply chain constraints. We expect to see seasonal patterns from a revenue, non GAAP gross margin and non GAAP operating expense perspective.

Speaker 3

As a reminder, Our non GAAP gross margin tends to be sequentially lower in the Q1 with gradual volume related improvements throughout the course of the year. In addition, operating expense is typically sequentially higher in the Q1 due to the reset of variable compensation and fringe costs. In closing, I would like to thank our team for their continued dedication and commitment to Juniper's success, especially in this challenging environment. Now, I'd like to open the call for questions.

Operator

At this time, we'll be conducting We'll also remind everyone to limit themselves to only one question. And our first question is from Rod Hall with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 4

Hi, guys. Thanks for

Speaker 5

the question. I guess I wanted to check the number on automated WAN. That was Down year over year in the quarter, but then it seems like you've got a lot of opportunity as you head into next year. And I just wanted to see kind of what you're thinking Happened in the quarter, maybe you can give us a little bit more color, but also was that supply mainly? And how does that look

Speaker 6

It just so happens that as you might imagine for automated WAN, the predominant product is routing. Routing is One of the more complex products that we need to build, they use the most amount of sophisticated semiconductor components. And for that reason, The discrepancy between revenue and orders is going to be greater for auto aided win and by connection also for the service provider. Having said that, I'm very pleased with both our service provider and our automated WAN momentum, especially from a booking standpoint. I should mention every solution area, automated WAN, Cladir AD Data Center and the AI Driven Enterprise had order growth of over 50%.

Speaker 6

It's just that the automated WAN had a Biggest impact from when it came to supply chain challenges, I really like the fact that our newer product That we've introduced into the market, line cards for the MX, line cards for the PTX are performing very well. That's something that we monitor closely. We've talked a lot about the metro opportunity, which in large part hasn't really positively helped us in any significant ways that really I think next year and the year after is when But nonetheless, we're seeing very solid early momentum with record orders for our ACX product line, which is predominantly used in that metro opportunity. And the last thing I'll say about automated WAN, which is very encouraging, Our 400 gig win rate. So while we don't necessarily see a ton of revenue yet, with 400 gig deployments, We are looking at very solid wins and also growing orders at this point, which is reflected in the automated WAN order growth.

Speaker 5

Okay. And thanks for that, Rami. And can I just just following that up, could you comment on the backlog? I know you said it's a $1,000,000,000 increase I think year to date. Is most of that backlog increase in this quarter in the automated WAN area?

Speaker 5

Or Are you just kind

Speaker 7

of seeing that across the board?

Speaker 5

I'm just curious about the composition of the backlog.

Speaker 3

Yes. So we've been building backlog throughout the year and It grow quite healthy in Q3 as well as you noted Rod. It is really across the board. I mean backlog is up across all customer solutions. I would say that the automated WAN is up a little bit more than the others, but it really is an across the board backlog build with a little bit more So we are entering the Q4 and I believe next year with a very healthy backlog across all products, but automated WAN is, I would say, the most healthy, if

Speaker 5

Great. Okay, guys. Thank you very much.

Speaker 3

Sure. Thank you.

Operator

And our next question is from Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 8

Hi. Thanks for taking the question. I guess I just wanted to start off by asking on pricing. What kind of actions have you Taken on that front, if you can just break that down in terms of like the different verticals, where are you finding it easy to take pricing, where it's a bit more difficult? And In relation to the supply chain driven headwinds on gross margin, when do we get to a point where you can be more net neutral with the price Pricing actions that you take and I have a follow-up please.

Speaker 3

Yes. So I'll take that. Thanks for the question, Sameet. We are expecting the supply chain cost to remain elevated throughout next year. I still believe they're transitory and I could be positively where we might see some of that reduction maybe late next year, but at this point, we are presuming that it's going to remain elevated on the cost side.

Speaker 3

On the pricing side, we are absolutely taking pricing actions to try to protect our gross margin. At this point, I feel that we are going to be able To protect much of our gross margin, it's a little too early to call exactly how that's going to play out. The other thing I would also add is the timing. I do expect that the cost to hit us A little earlier, as you can see from the results, cost of property starting to hit us and the pricing actions will take some time to feather in, particularly because we have such a large backlog At the old prices, so we need to burn through the backlog at kind of legacy pricing, if you will. And as we make pricing actually going forward, we'll realize that benefit In 2022, but it might not be evenly throughout the year.

Speaker 8

Okay, got it. And just for a follow-up, You are guiding to 5% revenue growth or mixed single digit as you call it revenue growth in 2022. In the past, you've given some color about Growth expectations by vertical. Just wanted to I mean, I can see different drivers here. Cloud, you have the benefit of 400 gig, there's Momentum on service provider as well, just if you can help us think about directionally which vertical is probably going to be your strongest growth vertical and kind of rank order them in terms of growth

Speaker 6

Yes, let me take that and maybe Ken would add some more to it. First, I would say we're not really guiding to Mid single digit or 5% growth as you mentioned, we are providing an outlook of at least mid single digit growth. And just keep in mind that We are supply chain limited right now. So that outlook that we provided assumes no meaningful improvement to the supply chain situation. If the supply chain situation does start to materially improve next year, then I think there is upside to that number.

Speaker 6

So I would just start with that. In terms of where that growth comes in, every vertical is Performing extremely well and every solution area is performing extremely well. Enterprise, I'd say it's going to be a significant growth driver for us. So assuming, again, supply chain goes our way, I think the differentiation that we have in the market, The win rate, the net new wins we're getting sets us up to perform extremely well. Service provider, I think, could actually do exceptionally well and even compete with an enterprise standpoint with the enterprise vertical just from the standpoint of the significant backlog that we've built thus So, it's going to be very difficult to predict exact stack ordering of Contributors to that growth, primarily because it's going to be very much determined by the supply chain situation.

Speaker 3

The only thing I'll add is we'll provide more color in our next call as we typically do in the beginning of 2022. So our Q4 call We'll provide more color on FY 2022 at that time.

Speaker 8

Thank you for clarifying remarks, Rami, and thank you, Ken. Thank you.

Operator

And our next question is from James Fish with Piper Sandler. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 3

Hey, guys. This is Quentin on for Jim. Thanks for taking our question. Maybe kind of touching base again on the enterprise side. We've seen some really strong quarters, especially within the Mist business.

Speaker 3

How should we think about the puts and takes of the enterprise strength? Is it driven more by delayed projects returning or are we seeing Juniper gaining more share or winning more against the incumbents? Thank you.

Speaker 6

Yes. Thanks for the good question. So I'm very confident that we're taking share in the enterprise space. You saw our enterprise routing performance 7% year over year, but I think the big difference between Our revenue and I think I said enterprise routing performance, I mean enterprise revenue performance 7% year over year. Order performance is actually significantly more than that and the difference is driven primarily by the fact that we had some weakness in Enterprise routing due entirely to the federal space where there's still uncertainty about budget.

Speaker 6

So if you remove that, Our strength in the enterprise is phenomenal. We're seeing significant wins of net new opportunities And there are 2 things that are driving that today. 1 is our AI driven enterprise solution, campus and branch that includes the Mist For wireless, wired and WAN, that's achieving new records every single quarter, Triple digit revenue growth for Mist, the 1st triple digit bookings quarter for Mist Wireless, Significant EX wired switching pull through of the Mist portfolio, all of these are contributing to That portion of the enterprise business, the 2nd vector of growth within the enterprise is the data center. There as well, Over 50% year over year order growth, significant differentiation with Apstra as a management solution for the data center, Very solid win rate. So I just think that we are taking share because of the strength of our portfolio, which has never been This differentiated, I mean, at least in my time at Juniper.

Speaker 3

And I just want to add on to that a little bit. So as Rami mentioned, enterprise from a revenue Perspective was up 7%. We already talked about automated WAN and service provider being a little bit stunted because of supply. And I just want to make sure everyone is aware that All cuts, whether it's enterprise cloud or SP or automated WAN, cloud ready data center, edge of enterprise, all numbers are actually lower From a revenue perspective, then we would otherwise expect, if it were not for supply constraints. We're not going to give you an absolute number of what it could have been, but one way to look at it, The difference between our adjusted bookings on a product perspective, which is 15% or mid teens in Q3 year over year As compared to our revenue growth on a product perspective of 5%.

Speaker 3

So it's easily to imply that there's an extra 10% of revenue growth That did not happen due to supply constraints and that would have really lifted all boats, enterprise, cloud and SP. Super helpful. Thank you.

Operator

And our next question is from Simon Leopold with Raymond James. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 9

Thanks for taking the question. I want to see if you could talk About the general trend in your input costs and specifically what I'm pondering is The components, particularly chips that you're ordering now or ordered during the quarter are likely to Up in 40 weeks, 50 weeks at higher price points. So I want to get a better understanding how to think about the impact of that particular headwind In 'twenty two gross margins, is that something you can help us with?

Speaker 3

Yes. So as you can see from we provided the We reported gross margin of 60.1% this quarter, which was above midpoint due to product mix being favorable, but we also talked about what it would have been if it weren't for the elevated costs, which would have been close to 61.5%. So these elevated costs are hitting us now. And one thing I would say, Simon, yes, we have purchase orders throughout all of next year, some cases, out 50 weeks, in other cases, out 80 weeks in an attempt to secure supply. And these are non cancelable Committed purchase orders with pricing.

Speaker 3

That said, this pricing environment is kind of taking that and throwing it out the window. We are seeing costs going up Despite the fact that we have orders in place, so we are expecting the orders we have in place are not necessarily the price we're going to pay, whether it's disguised in the form of an expedite fee Purchase price variance, etcetera, we're seeing costs going up, in advance of those orders being fulfilled, if that makes sense.

Speaker 9

I think it does. Just to clarify, all else being equal, your mix the same, customers the same, gross margins for products would be lower In 2022 than they are in right now. Is that fair?

Speaker 3

Not providing 2022 specific gross margin guidance at There's just too much uncertain. You could count on us giving you better understanding 90 days from now on our next call. I will say We are not dependent on gross margin improvement next year for us to hit our commitment of at least 100 basis improvement in operating margin. So we are very committed to expanding profitability next year, and we are not dependent on gross margin to do that, but we are very committed to expanding profits.

Speaker 9

Okay. Thank you. That's helpful.

Speaker 2

Yes.

Operator

Our next question is from George Notter with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 10

Hi, guys. Thanks very much. I guess, as I listen to the call, you guys have thrown out a lot of numbers. Certainly, some eye popping stats, I think, in terms of the additional $1,000,000,000 in backlog, triple digit order rates Across a number of your business lines and customer areas and yet we're talking about mid single digit growth for next year. Certainly, I think caveat to that is at least mid single, but I guess I'm trying to understand sort of the delta between all these numbers.

Speaker 10

I mean, It seems like at some level you expect that some of your customers have doubled and tripled ordered with you. I guess I'm wondering like how you see that dynamic and How does that play out going forward?

Speaker 6

Yes. Hi, George. I'll start. So, I mean, you sort of said it, We're really not guiding or we're not providing an outlook of mid single digits. We're providing an outlook of at least that number and We're doing it with the major assumption that supply situation does not in fact get better.

Speaker 6

If the supply situation in fact does start to improve and it could by the second half of next year, then I think you will see An upside to this outlook that we provided. That's really the net of it. At this point in time, based on visibility, we felt that it would be prudent for us to provide you with An outlook based on the supply situation not improving, however, that could be A false assumption, things could actually be better next year.

Speaker 3

Absolutely. I mean, there's no doubt that the limiting factor or the primary Input into our guidance or outlook for next year is supply. So this really has to do with how much supply we think we're going to have access to next year And that's where we came up with at least mid single digits. If it were purely a demand equation, the number would be much greater than that. And that holds true to not only next year, but

Speaker 10

Okay. Thank you very much.

Operator

And our next question is from Meta Marshall with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 11

Great. Thanks. I just wanted to see kind of where you were seeing the most traction with the App Store business? And was it Enterprise or just were you seeing kind of any traction on the hyperscale side or on the cloud side? And then maybe just a second question, if you could just remind us of

Speaker 6

Yes, let me start with your question about Apstra. So first, I'll just say very quickly that we never anticipated that Apstra would be a significant opportunity in The hyperscale space primarily because the top 5 hyperscale customers tend to develop their own automation software. That being said, Everything outside of hyperscale, enterprise, service provider, even cloud majors Large to midsized enterprise companies. And as I mentioned earlier, it's extremely encouraging, the rate at Which we are taking down new opportunities. There is absolutely a demand for this kind of automation technology for the data center space And there are some very unique aspects to our Astra software offering.

Speaker 6

1st and foremost, it's the only open solution in the market today. None of our peer automation solutions work on anything but their own switching infrastructure. Apstra works on our own switching As well as Sonic, as well as our competitors, which is that turns out to be a highly desirable feature of the technology. Apstra is designed ground up to scale to the largest data centers that's very meaningful for large enterprises, especially in financial services and Manufacturing and other similar verticals and Apstra invented, pioneered the concept of intent based networking. So from an operational standpoint, there really is nothing as good as it's in the market.

Speaker 6

So, very, very pleased with the performance thus far and I think this is going to be A great growth driver for us in the future.

Speaker 3

Yes. And your second question on organic versus inorganic, when we started the year, we called We believe the inorganic acquisitions in aggregate, all 3 of them would add about 1% of revenue growth to Juniper. We know it's about $50,000,000 And that's holding exactly as we expected. So you could take that $50,000,000 I'm not going to give you the exact number in Q3, but if you start with the $50,000,000 for the year and kind of quarterize that, That gives you some indication of the inorganic revenue in Q3.

Speaker 11

Great. Thanks guys.

Speaker 9

Sure.

Operator

Our next question is from Amit Darianni with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 12

Hey, guys. It's Michael Fisher on for Amit. I was curious on one of the comments on the AI driven enterprise revenue growth. You mentioned both Mist and DX product families grew year over year. I was curious if you can give some more color on the trajectory there, and whether Growth rates are accelerating, decelerating, not moving around, too much for each of those product families.

Speaker 6

Yes. Sorry, you glitched there for I think you're asking about Mist WiFi and then also the Yes. And EX, got it. Thank you. So, first, I think by any measure, Mist has been an incredible acquisition for Juniper Networks and it really has Put our enterprise business on a significant growth and take share trajectory.

Speaker 6

Q3 was No difference in terms of the quarter over quarter record we continue to make. This was a record AI Driven Enterprise Orders quarter and record AI driven revenue quarter for us. Order growth is well into double digits, Growth in all customers verticals SP, enterprise and cloud providers that are all bracing the technology. And I think I did mention that it's not just about WiFi, although WiFi in and of itself was a record and hit Triple digit bookings for the first time in the Q3 timeframe, we saw a record number of EX Pull through both in units, but also in revenue as well. So that has always been the strategy We're not just about WiFi, it's that entire client to cloud connection that includes WiFi, wired and WAN.

Speaker 6

We're seeing the full benefit in wireless And wired, as we integrate 120 technology into the WAN, which is really going to happen by the end of this year and the 1st part of next year, I think we'll see a similar pull through effect happening on that side as well. So the momentum has just been really strong. I expect that to continue for sure.

Speaker 12

Great. Thanks for taking my question.

Operator

Our next question is from David Vogt with UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 9

Great. Hi, guys. Thanks for the question. So Ken, can I just go back to the commentary about product order growth Versus actual product revenue, are you suggesting that in 3Q, there was roughly $70,000,000 of deferred product Revenue that shows up in your product backlog that you're going to recognize next year? And if I do that same math in the June quarter, it's probably about $60,000,000 or maybe $55,000,000 So is that revenue that you think will be recognized next year?

Speaker 9

Is that the right way to think about it? And then I have a quick follow-up.

Speaker 3

Yes. So I think those numbers you're referring to are in the ballpark from an adjusted bookings perspective. Our actual Backlog is going much faster than that. We've talked about greater than $1,000,000,000 so much bigger numbers. But if you just go to our adjusted bookings number, which is that mid teens number, That delta to revenue or the numbers you just quoted and those are the revenue that we could have or arguably should have recognized Already, right, in Q3, that plus 10%, that $70,000,000 you're referring to, that if there were not supply constraints, we would have recognized Approximately that much more revenue is really the math I want you to understand.

Speaker 3

From the backlog build, it's much greater than that because customers are placing orders at a faster rate.

Speaker 9

So then maybe just as a quick follow-up. So that $70,000,000 given your backlog, I guess, would be recognized in calendar 2022. So when I think about your commentary about at least mid single digit revenue growth, that sounds like about 1.5 of that growth comes from the backlog pushed From, let's say, 3Q into 4Q, I would imagine you're expecting something similar in Q4. Is that the right way to think about your 2022 revenue outlook? There's some push out from 3Q and 4Q that's going to benefit in 2022?

Speaker 3

I do think that the backlog build, whether it's the adjusted bookings backlog build or even the unadjusted The reason why we're not guiding more than at least single digits is supply constraints. So we're supply constrained today And we're expecting to be supply constrained next year as well. So how much of that backlog and how quickly we're able to ship it is still uncertain at this point, But we feel very good about at least mid single digit growth due to the strength of our backlog, due to the strength of the momentum we're seeing on the booking side, quite honestly, execution we have in the field and the product differentiation we enjoy. So there's a lot of reasons to be more bullish. The one reason to be somewhat prudent It is supply and that's something that's keeping us kind of at the at least mid single digit level at this point.

Speaker 9

Great. Thanks for the color. Sure.

Operator

And our next question is from Bahad Najam Najam with MGM Partners. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 7

Thank you for squeezing me in. I apologize I missed much of the call. So if I'm repeating, I apologize. But I just want to Get a better sense on your gross margin trend. In terms of can you give us some color Pricing environment and how much of a puts and take does that offset to a degree the component and freight costs That are impacting your near term gross margin and how do you think the pricing environment plays out next year?

Speaker 7

I suspect it's probably favorable. And if anything, if I look at some of your peers like Cisco, who highlighted significantly Benefit in the Q4 from the pricing environment, I suspect you're also likely to benefit from that. So can you give us a color on how that plays out versus Component costs?

Speaker 3

Yes. So we already are seeing some of the elevated costs related to component shortages, Freight, etcetera, and we expect those costs to remain elevated throughout next year. And in some cases, perhaps a little worse, other cases perhaps get a little better, but we expect elevated costs throughout all of next year and we're already experiencing those. We've given you not only the gross margin reported, but the adjusted gross margin Just to account for that those extra costs, which we do believe are transitory. However, at this point, we're assuming it's not going to go away In 2022, it will be beyond that.

Speaker 3

On the pricing side, we are taking actions. I think many of our competitors are taking similar actions. It will take some time for us to for those actions to really hit our P and L. I do expect them to be beneficial to 2022, But the timing will be a little more back end loaded because we are carrying such a large backlog, right? We have nearly $1,500,000,000 of backlog.

Speaker 3

We talked about Growing at over $1,000,000,000 we started the year with $420,000,000 So we're nearly at $1,500,000,000 That takes some time to burn through and that's Not going to be impacted by the pricing actions as much as the future of orders will be. So you'll start to see some benefit. How that all plays out It's just too early for us to quantify and provide outlook on, but what I am confident on is our profitability will grow next year and op margin will

Speaker 7

Can you share how the customer feedback has been on the price hikes, Especially like are you getting a lot of pushback? Can you give us some color on the discounting environment? Is it more disciplined across the market? And should that all else being equal, if you have a favorable discounting environment, Wouldn't that to a degree significantly offset the component headwinds that you've highlighted?

Speaker 3

Yes. So we are taking the pricing actions with that goal in mind, right, to protect our gross margin. And I think to a degree, it will. From a customer acceptance perspective, I think overall, I would summarize it as they're not surprised. They're seeing it across the board, across Most of their suppliers, we're seeing it across our suppliers.

Speaker 3

This is something that's upstream and not surprising. Obviously, I don't think that they are

Operator

And our next question is from Jim Suva with Citigroup. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 9

Thank you very much. My question is your outlook for next year is very encouraging. I think you said at least mid single digits. Can you just recap This year and next year, the amount of organic versus inorganic, because I think sometimes the timing layers in a little bit of Organic versus inorganic, and I just assume, but maybe you can answer, next year's outlook is not including anything Not announced or pending or things like that for acquisitions? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yes. So next year's outlook does not assume any new Acquisitions, I mean, the acquisitions we made approximately 12 months ago are now baked into our run rate and baked into next year's outlook. Those businesses are growing and so you would see a year on year improvement if we were to break that out, which we're not. But we have backed That into our at least mid single digit growth. But yes, this is an organic Juniper as today outlook for next year.

Speaker 3

It does not require any additional M and A.

Speaker 9

Thank you so much.

Speaker 11

Sure.

Operator

Your next question is from Paul Silverstein with Cohen, please proceed with your question.

Speaker 4

I appreciate you all squeezing me in. And I'll too apologize if this has already been asked and answered. First off, With respect to webscale customers, I know 6 of your top 10 customers were cloud. And I know that's been pretty typical of preceding quarters. But are all 4 of the webscale giants among those

Speaker 3

6. Are all 4 of the hyperscalers, the webscale giants amongst those 6? We don't break out that little detail as you know, Paul. I mean, I think it's a fair assumption that where the CapEx is, is where you're going to see our biggest customers. So where the spend is, is likely going to be where our top Customers are, but I'm not going to get into any more detail than say 6 of our top 10 or cloud customers.

Speaker 6

I do want to add just Paul that Our cloud provider business is performing incredibly well, 2nd quarter of triple digit order growth. And I love the broad based strength that we're seeing. So we're seeing an expansion within hyperscale Of opportunities and diversity across the 4 or 5 big hyperscale customers. So it's not just our traditionally largest Cloud provider customer that's driving that growth is also other hyperscale customers. And add to that the Cloud majors, Tier 2, Tier 3 cloud providers that are also performing very well.

Speaker 6

There is an additional element of Strength and broad based diversity and that is in the technology space. So routing, switching and security Are all performing really well within the Cloud Provider segment.

Speaker 4

So Rami, to that statement, I assume I recognize as you just pointed out, you've got more than just routing, but I assume routing is a big portion of those large of your business with those large cloud operators. Where I'm really trying to go with this, I'm trying to be too clever by

Speaker 3

half. Clearly,

Speaker 4

there's in light of Facebook's massive, what is it, $10,000,000,000 to $15,000,000,000 increase in calendar 'twenty two CapEx. I was trying to discern to what extent, if any, you will leverage. I assume you do have leverage, but I You're not going to be willing to answer that. If you are, great. If not, I'd like to ask you let me pause and let you respond, and then I have a quick follow-up.

Speaker 6

Well, I'm not going to answer a question that's specific to our customer. However, I will say, I'm looking at the hot off the press earnings results from our hyperscale cloud providers, Looking at their CapEx rates and feeling very good about that because as long as their business is performing well, They will need to invest in their infrastructure to maintain that strength to keep up with the demand that they are seeing And we will benefit from that, as simple as that. Our footprint in routing within hyperscale is phenomenal. We've Maintain that footprint despite many attempts by competitors to take slices of it away from us. And then as you get into the top 10 and the In cloud majors, it's not just about routing, it's about routing and switching for us.

Speaker 4

Understood. Quick follow-up. I assume Assuming that increasing number of customers are in fact providing longer term forecasts, as I believe has been the case for you and most others, I assume your forecast, your outlook for 2022 is relatively more solid. There's more knowledge underlying it and less hope relative to Last year and preceding years, is that simply a given?

Speaker 3

Yes. I think given the strength of our backlog and Most tangible way to look at it, I mean, we have corridors in place for a much greater percentage of next year's revenue than we normally would entering the year. So I think that absolutely gives us Better visibility than we are accustomed to as we enter in future periods.

Speaker 4

I appreciate the responses. Thanks guys.

Speaker 6

Thanks Paul.

Operator

And our last question would be from Alex Henderson with Needham. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 13

Thanks. I was hoping you could talk a little bit about the broader pricing environment, not necessarily in context What you're doing, but rather what you're seeing from your competitors? And to what extent your actions are Under an umbrella or ahead of the umbrella? And just can you talk about your price in your categories relative to what they're doing? Thanks.

Speaker 3

Yes. I mean, I don't want to get super specific on what others are doing individually, but I can tell Pricing actions, whether they be list price actions, discount controls or other types of actions are absolutely something that Many companies, I assume not just in our peer group, but even in other industries where they're getting input costs are rising pretty dramatically. Many companies are exploring and implementing it. And I can tell you that so far, we've taken some actions. We'll continue to look at opportunities going forward, All in an effort to protect our gross margin, the input costs are absolutely rising.

Speaker 3

I think that's not a secret. It starts upstream with the wafers and the fabs and then moves into our component suppliers and they're seeing higher costs and they're looking to pass those on to us And we're looking to pass those on to our customers. And so far, we feel confident we are going to benefit from the actions we're taking, but It's just too early to commit to gross margin inputs gross margin outputs for next year.

Speaker 13

Certainly, I understand the mechanics of that, and I think everybody on the call does. There shouldn't be any surprises there. But the real question is, Are you more aggressive in trying to push price or are you less aggressive versus your competition? And I don't not asking for you Describe it on a per specific person or company, but rather in general, are you More aggressive or less aggressive on pricing than your competition in the categories that you are competing? And particularly, can you focus a little bit The campus market, which is particularly important to your growth theme.

Speaker 6

Yes, Alex, let me take a stab at it. So it's very difficult to sort of answer that quantitatively because we don't know in a lot of detail what everybody else is doing. But to the extent that Our peers are attempting to do what we're doing, which is essentially to offset cost increases. Then I think First order of magnitude, they're going to be all roughly in line with each other. That's sort of how I would answer that question.

Speaker 6

And In the campus and branch in particular, yes, I mean, there are going to be cost pressures there just like anywhere else. But the thing about Campus and Trans that makes me feel very good is the level of differentiation and this is software led differentiation Has never been stronger and it allows us to win to compete and win on value. So there are opportunities that we are winning now Fairly routinely, where we are not price leaders and yet we're able to garner a greater Price just because of the differentiation that we have with that solution.

Speaker 13

With all due respect, I think there are large differences between the Locations where price actions are being taken by your competitors and necessarily your exposure to them, so that there could be Meaningfully differentials between categories. My guess is that the campus is an area that prices have gone up more rapidly. But I'd be interested if you have any thoughts on that point.

Speaker 6

No additional thoughts at this time. Thanks for that input, Alex. I appreciate it.

Speaker 13

Thank

Speaker 3

you.

Operator

Thank you. We have reached the end of the question and answer session. I'll now turn the call back over to Rami Rahim for closing remarks.

Speaker 6

Yes. Briefly, I just wanted to thank everybody for participating in the call today and for the great questions. I'll just leave you with a couple of thoughts. First, I remain very encouraged by the momentum that we're seeing in the business, especially the diversity of the strength that we're seeing across Market segments and technologies and solution areas, I think the team is executing extremely well and I'm very proud Our Juniper team for doing that. And last but not least, I think the demand strength we're seeing coupled with the backlog that we built right now Sets us up for a great next year, both from the standpoint of achieving revenue growth, but then also our commitment to expanding profits as well.

Speaker 6

So I'll leave you with that thought. Thanks again.

Powered by Quartr
Earnings Conference Call
Juniper Networks Q3 2021
00:00 / 00:00