Arista Networks Q3 2021 Earnings Call Transcript


Listen to Conference Call

Participants

Corporate Executives

  • Liz Stine
    Director of Investor Relations Advocacy
  • Jayshree V. Ullal
    President and Chief Executive Officer
  • Ita Brennan
    Chief Financial Officer

Presentation

Operator

Welcome to the Third Quarter 2021 Arista Networks Financial Results Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded and will be available for replay from the Investor Relations section at the Arista website following this call.

Ms. Liz Stein, Arista's, Director of Investor Relations, you may begin.

Liz Stine
Director of Investor Relations Advocacy at Arista Networks

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us. With me on today's call are Jayshree Ullal, Arista Networks, President and Chief Executive Officer; And Ita Brennan Arista's Chief Financial Officer. This afternoon, Arista Networks issued a press release announcing the results for its fiscal third quarter ending September 30, 2021. If you would like a copy of the release, you can access it online at our website.

During the course of this conference call, Arista Networks management will make forward-looking statements, including those relating to our financial outlook for the fourth quarter of the 2021 fiscal year, longer-term financial outlooks for 2022 and beyond, our total addressable market and strategy for addressing these market opportunities, the potential impact of COVID-19 on our business, product innovation, the imply of supply -- the impact of supply shortages and manufacturing constraints on our business, including lead time and inventory purchases and the benefits of acquisitions, which are subject to the risks and uncertainties that we discuss in detail in our documents filed with the SEC, specifically in our most recent Form 10-Q and Form 10-K, and which could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated by these statements. These forward-looking statements apply as of today, and you should not rely on them as representing our views in the future. We undertake no obligation to update these statements after this call. Also, please note that certain financial measures we use on this call are expressed on a non-GAAP basis and have been adjusted to exclude certain charges. We have provided reconciliations that these non-GAAP financial measures to GAAP financial measures in our earnings press release.

With that, I will turn the call over to Jayshree.

Jayshree V. Ullal
President and Chief Executive Officer at Arista Networks

Thank you, Liz, and welcome to your first earnings experience. Thank you, everyone, for joining us this afternoon for our third quarter 2021 earnings call. Today's call will be followed by our Virtual Analyst Day at 3:00 PM Pacific Standard Time. We delivered record revenues of $748.7 million for the quarter, with record non-GAAP earnings per share of $2.96. A-Care services and software renewals contributed approximately 21.5%. Our non-GAAP gross margins at 64.9% was influenced by enterprise and Cloud Titan momentum. We remain pleased with our healthy customer growth, including million dollar customers and new customer logos in our mainstream enterprise.

In Q3 2021, Cloud Titans was once again our top vertical with enterprise being a close second followed by financials and specialty cloud providers tied at third and service providers at fourth place. All verticals contributed to Arista's diversity and growth. International contribution was strong at 25% with the Americas at 75% for the quarter. No know earnings call these days is complete without supply chain commentary. We are clearly in the midst of an acute supply chain crisis with increased prices and long lead time. We are changing our risk mindset from our historical build to forecast and orders to build to invest, doubling our purchase commitments in excess of $2 billion and planning for the next one to two years. Lead times of many components have extended to 50 weeks to 80 weeks with price hikes ranging from 15% to as high as 200% across our entire supply chain of copper, steel, substrate, printed circuit board, memory, silicon ICs, connectors, freight and labor.

Arista has been deliberate and thoughtful about price increases so far as we've shared with you, but we have recently announced increase list prices effective November 4, 2021, averaging about an approximately 10% to offset these very high escalating costs. Customer demand remained strong for Arista products as we're gaining market share in 100 gig, 200 gig and 400 gig high performance switching according to market analysts. We truly appreciate our customers and partners for their patience and understanding as we navigate these turbulent times throughout 2022 as well.

Recently, we have witnessed the progress of our routing products with key customers and the acceptance of our routing edge use cases. Similar to Cloud Titans, carriers and large enterprise customers are deriving immense benefit from Arista's EOS and rich routing features. We deliver simplification and unified service delivery with the support of segment routing with traffic engineering and EVPN, as well as rapid sale over techniques. This provides that ideal alternative to today's complex legacy router deployments with much more improved total cost of ownership and capex benefits. Since its founding, Arista has pioneered the transformation from routers to routing with our leaf spine R-series platforms. Arista's third generation R3-Series based on EOS4.26 delivered three new edge use cases this year. The first one is a multi-cloud edge that brings provisioning and programmatic traffic steering. The second is a natural edge for single protocol adoption across multiple edge VPN services into the metro Ethernet fabric. And the final use case is a 5G RAN edge with the 5G disaggregating the radio area network with scale out routing.

Continuing our theme of Big Bet wins, I would like to highlight worldwide examples of our strength with specific customer names in routing and campus adjacencies. The first customer was CD LAN, an international service provider in Italy that adopted Arista for the routing transformation Arista solution let them to take a fresh approach to routing for next generation edge and backbone, reducing the complexity of protocols. This delivered L2 and L3 services with the EVPN on a segment-routing backbone along with modern operations and superior services and experience.

The second customer was Connecticut Education Network, who standardized Arista's R-series with Arista EOS being instrumental in the transformation of the MPLS VPN edge, providing 100 gig density internet broad scale stability and manageability. The advantages and the relationship with CEN across service and engineering affirm their decision to choose us at Arista, paring between ISPs using 100 gig and MPLS PE to replace their large legacy router.

Third customer was Zenlayer layer, an international customer in Asia Pacific, who was delighted to partner with Arista and build the next generation cloud edge and broader backbone for the infrastructure growth. Arista's rich routing stack brought programmatic traffic engineering in the core of the segment routing without sacrificing quality performance as a liability. And finally in the campus, we continue to make progress towards our goal of doubling to $200 million in the Cognitive Campus in 2021. An example of this is an international customer win in Australia, the Australian Securities Exchange providing Cognitive Campus for its corporate sites in Sydney, Melbourne and Perth. The new campus network is based on Arista's wide platforms to 720 XP series and it's built on a multi-year relationship we built between Arista and [Indecipherable] utilizing EOS and CloudVision for real-time insights across all devices in trading and non-trading environments.

In summary, Arista's customers strongly endorse our client to cloud strategy to unify SILO data sets consistently. We believe we are well positioned for the next phase of growth in data-driven cloud networking with proactive platforms, predictive operations and a prescriptive experience. We look forward to sharing more of this and our vision and our goals with you at our Analyst Day later this afternoon.

I will pass it over now to Ita Brennan, our Chief Financial Officer, for financial specifics. Ita?.

Ita Brennan
Chief Financial Officer at Arista Networks

Thanks, Jayshree, and good afternoon. This analysis of our Q3 results and our guidance for Q4 2021 is based on non-GAAP and excludes our non-cash stock-based compensation impacts, certain acquisition-related charges and other non-recurring items. A full reconciliation of our selected GAAP to non-GAAP results is provided in our earnings release.

Total revenues in Q3 were $748.7 million, up 23.7% year-over-year and above the upper end of our guidance of $725 million to $745 million. Shipments remained constrained in the period as we continue to carefully navigate industry-wide supply chain shortages and COVID-related disruptions. Services and subscription software contributed approximately 21.5% of revenue in the third quarter, down from 22.3% in Q2. International revenues for the quarter came in at $191 million or 25% of total revenue, down from 27% in the second quarter. This shift in geographical mix on a quarter-over-quarter basis reflect a continued healthy performance from our Cloud Titan and in region businesses in EMEA, with some volatility in our APAC business. Overall gross margin in Q3 was 64.9% at the upper end of our guidance range of approximately 63% to 65%. We continue to recognize some incremental supply chain costs in the period, and these were offset by a healthy mix of revenue from our enterprise customers in the quarter.

Operating expenses for the quarter were $192.4 million or 25.7% of revenue, up from last quarter at $189.8 million. R&D spending came in at $125 million or 16.7% of revenue, up from last quarter at $119.6 million. This reflected increased headcount and employee-related costs and higher new product introduction spending in the period. Sales and marketing expense was $55.8 million or 7.4% of revenue, down from $57.9 million last quarter with lower demo and other variable expenses in the period. As a reminder, we continue to benefit from lower COVID-related travel and marketing expenses.

Our G&A costs came in at $11.6 million or 1.5% of revenue, down slightly from last quarter, but in line with normal quarter seasonality. Our operating income for the quarter was $293.7 million or 39.2% of revenue. Other income and expense for the quarter was a favorable $1.3 million and our effective tax rate was approximately 19.7%. This resulted in net income for the quarter of $236.9 million or 31.6% of revenue. Our diluted share number was 79.9 million shares, resulting in a diluted earnings per share number for the quarter of $2.96, up approximately 22.5% from the prior year.

Now turning to the balance sheet. Cash, cash equivalents and investments into the quarter at approximately $3.4 billion. We repurchased $134 million of our common stock during the third quarter at an average price of $357 per share. As a recap, at the end of Q3 2021, we had repurchased $897 million or 3.9 million shares against our board authorization to repurchase $1 billion worth of shares over three years beginning in April 2019. In October 2021, Arista's Board of Directors increased the authorization by adding an additional $1 billion to the repurchase amount. The actual timing and amount of future repurchases will be dependent on market and business conditions, business requirements, stock price, acquisition opportunities and other factors.

Now turning to the operating cash performance for the third quarter. We generated $273 million of cash from operations in the period, reflecting strong net income performance and continued investments in inventory and supply chain. DSOs came in at 49 days, up slightly from 47 in Q2, reflecting the linearity of billings in the period. Inventory turns were 1.7 times consistent with last quarter, inventory increased $575.7 million in the quarter, up from $543.2 million in the prior period as we continue to profit certain components and products.

Our purchase commitments number for the quarter increased to $2.1 billion, up from $1.1 billion in Q2. This reflects a combination of increased lead times for many components and improved demand visibility. We continue to prioritize newer, early life cycle products for inclusion in this strategy to help mitigate the risk of obsolescence. Our total deferred revenue balance was $800 million, up from $746 million in Q2. The majority of the deferred revenue balance and services related and directly linked to the timing and term of service contracts, which can vary on a quarter-by-quarter basis. Approximately $113 million of the balance, up from $90 million last quarter represents product deferred revenue largely related to acceptance clauses for new products, most recently with our larger Cloud Titan customers.

As a reminder, we are currently in a period of significant new product introductions, combined with a healthy new customer acquisition rate and expanded use cases with existing customers. These trends in conjunction with reduced levels of upfront, in-person testing have resulted in increased customer specific acceptance clauses and higher product deferred revenue amounts. Accounts payable days were 47 days, down from 54 days in Q2, reflecting the timing of inventory receipts and payments. Capital expenditures for the quarter were $45.9 million, including approximately 40 million of capex related to the purchase of land to construct a new data center and hardware engineering building in Santa Clara. We will provide more details in this project over coming quarters.

Now turning to our guidance for the fourth quarter and beyond. As outlined in our guidance, we now expect to achieve year-over-year revenue growth for the full-year 2021 of approximately 25%. This reflects continued healthy demand across all market sectors tempered by the impact of the difficult supply environment. On the gross margin front, industry supply constraints and elevated logistics cost continue to pressure gross margins with customer price increases as a potential offset. Based on our current outlook, we continue to reiterate our overall gross margin outlook of 63% to 65% with customer mix remaining the key driver of volatility on a quarter-by-quarter basis.

Turning to spending an investments, we remain committed to growing our investments in R&D to support innovation across the business and sales and marketing to support our go-to-market expansion. So finally, we also announced today that Arista's Board of Directors has approved a 4-for-one stock split. Each Arista shareholder of record at the close of business on November 11, 2021 will receive three additional shares for every share held and trading will begin on a split-adjusted basis on November 18, 2021. With all of this is a backdrop, our guidance for the fourth quarter, which is based on non-GAAP results and excludes any non-cash, stock-based compensation impacts and other non-recurring items is as follows. Revenues of approximately $775 million to $795 million, gross margins of 63% to 65%, operating margin of approximately 37%. Our effective tax rate is expected to be approximately 20.5% with diluted shares on our pre-split basis of approximately 80 million shares.

I will now turn the call back to, Liz. Liz?

Liz Stine
Director of Investor Relations Advocacy at Arista Networks

Thank you, Ita. We are now going to move to the Q&A portion of the Arista earnings call. Due to time constraints, I'd like to request that everyone please limit themselves to a single question. Thank you for your understanding. Operator, take it away.

Questions and Answers

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Samik Chatterjee with J.P. Morgan.

Samik Chatterjee
Analyst at J.P. Morgan

Hi, Thanks for taking my question and congrats on the strong results, really impressive. So let me keep it broad-based, Jayshree. I think you mentioned strong demand that you're seeing and I think you highlighted cloud customers in the press release, but just generally if you can talk to how broad-based is the demand that you're seeing across cloud and then what is the kind of magnitude of demand that you're seeing from enterprise customers and how do you think about sustainability of that level of demand, which you're seeing this year, how do we think about sustainability of that into next year? Thank you.

Jayshree V. Ullal
President and Chief Executive Officer at Arista Networks

Yeah, Thank you, Samik for the good wishes, it's a proud moment and I really congratulate my entire leadership team and my employees for getting us here. I think demand is very strong as I mentioned in my earlier script across all five verticals, across all three product lines and across all three sectors as well. So I would not -- I would tell you we are growing in that, what Ita highlighted as a 25% annual growth, every sector is growing. In some ways I feel bad that I even have to rank and rate them, but if you -- if you ask me to highlight some of the growth vectors, I would say obviously Cloud Titans are back. We had a rough spell if you remember two years ago, Halloween was not a treat, it was trick and it's just come back. It is a volatile sector and it's positively volatile right now. So we're enjoying the growth of Cloud Titans.

We're also enjoying many pieces of our enterprise market growing and there are really sub verticals there that are doing very, very well, not just the financials, but different parts of the enterprise. I think it's fair to say Arista has arrived in the enterprise. We've been growing double digits for a couple of years and we expect to continue to see double-digit growth in the enterprise sector and this is by far our largest momentum of all the verticals I would say. But not -- as I mentioned a lot of routing use cases, these routing use cases are not only in the Cloud, Titans but are obviously also in service providers and enterprises as well. So we're just enjoying very diversified momentum of our business at the moment.

Samik Chatterjee
Analyst at J.P. Morgan

Got it. Congrats again.

Jayshree V. Ullal
President and Chief Executive Officer at Arista Networks

Thank you. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Fahad Najam with MKM Partners.

Fahad Najam
Analyst at MKM Partners

Thank you for taking my question. I wanted to ask you a question on the visibility. You mentioned that certain components lead times have extended from 50 weeks to 80 weeks. I presume you're customers in turn are giving you forward-looking guidance as well. So can you give us a sense on the visibility your seeing and help us quantify that in any way you can?

Jayshree V. Ullal
President and Chief Executive Officer at Arista Networks

Sure, I'll say some few words and Ita if you can add to that. I think because of these kind of long lead times on our components, first thing Ita and the team are doing, Ita ensuring the entire team are planning ahead and we're no more like we said building to forecast our, but really building to a future demand. So visibility becomes very important in that case because it's no more one or two quarters. The Cloud Titans visibility has improved a lot this year. Typically, it used to be one to two quarters, right now it's more like a year or more. So this is the best visibility we've ever had with the Cloud Titans that's allowing us to build up inventory and to build a plan to get ahead, if you will.

In the enterprise as well, nobody's lead times are very good right now and we're no different. Although we thought and we believe we have a head start by starting on this problem as early as last year, we have hundreds of suppliers and we've had to increase our strategic interface with these suppliers and make again bets on them long-term. So visibility in the enterprises is six months to a year, this is fully in the cloud and specialty cloud providers is now exceeding a year. So in general, we're now able to make a plan to buy components well ahead of the purchase orders and forecasts. Ita, you want to add something more.

Ita Brennan
Chief Financial Officer at Arista Networks

Yeah, and I think the other thing I'd add to that is, it's hard to be too quantitative when you think about demand and bookings just because obviously the lead times and the timeframes are very different, right. So I think from -- just from a business perspective, we will continue to focus on the revenue and the revenue metrics and then the bookings numbers will kind of ebb and flow. But obviously right now you are getting a lot of visibility to what's happening with customers just because we need that to be able to drive the --, what types of [Indecipherable] that we're driving.

Fahad Najam
Analyst at MKM Partners

Appreciate the answers.

Jayshree V. Ullal
President and Chief Executive Officer at Arista Networks

Okay, thanks, Fahad.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Rod Hall with Goldman Sachs.

Rod Hall
Analyst at The Goldman Sachs Group

Yeah, thanks for the question. And I'd like to echo the positive comments due to your phenomenal results in this environment. I guess my question is regarding the COGS and that the cost of some of the products you're getting from Broadcom. Other companies we've talked to you during this earning season had talked about really high expedite fees and just wondering if you're seeing those and how they're factoring into the forward costs in the business, like are you able because of this visibility to set your prices at a level that compensate for it? Will we see higher COGS [Indecipherable] maybe the early part of next year. I'm just curious whether you seeing those expedite these and then how they might affect margins at some point?

Ita Brennan
Chief Financial Officer at Arista Networks

I think everybody is seeing. I don't want to talk about a particular supplier, but we are seeing expedite fees and incremental costs kind of across the supply base, all right. And you haven't seen those in the gross margins in the income statement today just because the mix has been more enterprise heavy, and that's been kind of offsetting that, right. I think we are, as Jayshree mentioned, we're are in the process of instituting some price increases, etc., to help offset some of those costs, so that will help. I think we're comfortable thinking about that 63% to 65% range is still being reasonable, but you will see some more volatility quarter by quarter just as the mix of the business. The customer mix is still going to be the biggest driver. The other costs we're managing with some of the price increases, that's better. But when we have a heavier kind of cloud mix and in particular quarters that are, we see kind of some lower gross margins than what we've seen over the last couple of quarters.

Jayshree V. Ullal
President and Chief Executive Officer at Arista Networks

And, thank you for the good wishes, Rod.

Rod Hall
Analyst at The Goldman Sachs Group

Sure, Jayshree. No problem. And just a question. Our customer -- what about the cloud customers. Are they willing to accept a little bit of price increase knowing that things are getting more expensive? Just curious what that conversations are like there?

Jayshree V. Ullal
President and Chief Executive Officer at Arista Networks

I would say all our customers are very understanding but nobody is willingly accepting price increases, including the rich Cloud Titans.

Rod Hall
Analyst at The Goldman Sachs Group

Right, okay. Thanks a lot.

Jayshree V. Ullal
President and Chief Executive Officer at Arista Networks

Thanks, Rod.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jim Suva with Citigroup.

Jim Suva
Analyst at Smith Barney Citigroup

Thank you. Truly spectacular. And I got to just ask about the build to forecast, which is build to order. Kind of when did you implement that and what was the reaction of some of your customers or is it more internal? And what I'm wondering is how much further you may be ahead of some of your competitors? It sounds like it's actually may be something that you're looking for, like the next couple of years if you have lead times going so long. Thank you.

Jayshree V. Ullal
President and Chief Executive Officer at Arista Networks

Right. First of all, I just want to give a big shout out to Anshul, John McCool and Haynes and the entire manufacturing team. If you -- let me just step back, Jim, and thank you for the kind wishes. The traditional model for everybody has been built to forecast, lead times are based on supplier commits, there's some buffers, but most of it is just in time, right. And very rarely does anybody pay for expedites. If you look at supply chain in 2022, first of all expedites way of life, it doesn't matter which vendor. You have to plan not just weeks ahead but months ahead. Often you can get de commits from supplier. There's shortages across the board. There's lots of orders, there's no buffers. Everybody is coming at them sometimes and we used to think the high-tech industry is special, but some of the components we're talking about, we compete with the automotive industry and the consumer industry which makes it tougher. And it is a surprising at all to see expedites involve, not just CEOs but heads of countries literally, that's how how rough it is. So it's a very oversubscribed process.

We thought we got a head start by starting, when was it Ita, late last year when Anshul and the team put together a plan. So we've definitely had a head start. And if things have gotten better, we would be well ahead of everyone. But this things keep getting worse. So now the head start is good, but we have to add to that head start and hence the doubling of the inventory. And without naming any vendor, I'll just say we have increased the strategic nature of our relationship with not just one or two vendors, but 25% of our vendors. So this is a much larger relationship pool and we are committing to them long-term, they're committing to us. But both of those have to be patient and understanding of the short-term troubles we have.

Jim Suva
Analyst at Smith Barney Citigroup

Thank you. And again, really big congratulations to you and your entire entity. Thank you.

Jayshree V. Ullal
President and Chief Executive Officer at Arista Networks

Thank you. Say kudos to my team.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Paul Silverstein with Cowen.

Paul Silverstein
Analyst at Cowen & Company

Thanks for taking the questions. Two earlier questions if I may, was to reach 200 gigs from Facebook and 400 gig revenue from Microsoft in your third quarter and do you expect in the fourth quarter? And Jayshree would you care to comment on the outlook for next year? I know you with supply chain it's challenging, but...

Jayshree V. Ullal
President and Chief Executive Officer at Arista Networks

Yeah, I'm just checking to see, but there was 400 gig revenue overall. As I told you last time, we have increased our customer logos in the 400 gig category from 75 customers last year to the first half was 150 and we trending to about 300 customers. So there's definitely 400 gig. I need to double check on whether there was any 200 gig. Let me beg off that question. Ita do you know?

Ita Brennan
Chief Financial Officer at Arista Networks

Yeah, I was just going to say, Paul. Some of the commentary on the deferred is probably relevant here too where we talked about the deferred down becoming more Cloud Titan heavy this quarter, whereas before it had been more other verticals, etc., right. So I think that's -- so we may not have had revenue, but we probably had activity.

Jayshree V. Ullal
President and Chief Executive Officer at Arista Networks

We deferred the revenue, so we have some deferred 200 gig.

Paul Silverstein
Analyst at Cowen & Company

So that's what I thought, but just be specific Jayshree. The question specific to Facebook and Microsoft, I assume a lot of that revenue is being deferred and maybe it's not, but that's the specific question.

Ita Brennan
Chief Financial Officer at Arista Networks

Yeah, I think we grew our deferred revenue when we mixed definitely towards the cloud and that includes new products, right. So that's going to...

Jayshree V. Ullal
President and Chief Executive Officer at Arista Networks

These are 200 gig and 400 gig all right.

Paul Silverstein
Analyst at Cowen & Company

All right. And would you care to give any comment about the outlook for next year.

Jayshree V. Ullal
President and Chief Executive Officer at Arista Networks

We are going to, at the Analyst Day, how about them.

Paul Silverstein
Analyst at Cowen & Company

I can't wait 30 months.

Jayshree V. Ullal
President and Chief Executive Officer at Arista Networks

All right, we'll give you and suppose you are in the East Coast, I apologize for keeping you up late but we'll make it short and sweet, I think our Analyst Day will be two hours, so you won't have to stay up too long.

Paul Silverstein
Analyst at Cowen & Company

Okay, I appreciate it.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Sami Badri with Credit Suisse.

Sami Badri
Analyst at Credit Suisse Group

Thank you for the question. Jayshree, you've mentioned a couple of times taking about restaurant to enterprise wins and that really kind of dialing up as far as momentum. But if you were to pull a point, the key reasons why you're winning and you continue to win with what sounds like increasing momentum, can you just highlight them for us because most of the people on this call are used to hearing about very dependable sales channel, many other vendors with very comprehensive solutions. Could you walk us through the key sales pitch and just what is resonating with the enterprise customers?

Jayshree V. Ullal
President and Chief Executive Officer at Arista Networks

All right. And again I'll do some of this at the Analyst Day, but I'll give you the abbreviated version, Sami. First of all, I think our relevance in the enterprise customer has increased from data center to really a much broader portfolio that's client to cloud, going all the way from campus, WiFi [Technical Issues] design, the data center to routing and a very large do it now now of software and services as well, everything from A-Care to CloudVision [Technical Issues] as well as our recent acquisition of Big Switch and Awake now contributing as well to segmentation, observability and security as well. So the completeness and the innovative nature of our portfolio itself.

The second thing that's helped is our power of one, if you will. One OS, one image, one CloudVision. Customers just love the, not just the innovation, but the quality and support. I'm not having to buy SILO boxes, but having an innovative and much better operator experience with a much lower TCO. And finally the enterprise customers is that we have now -- much as we talk about products, we have invested in customers. Our investment in sales led by Chris Schmidt and Ashwin Kohli and the entire team worldwide really began in 2017. So this is our third or fourth year of enterprise investment, and I think we're now seeing the results of that. The first and second year we were kind of getting in we were just coming into the campus and now I think we're coming onto our own in a complete holistic fashion.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jason Ader with William Blair.

Jason Ader
Analyst at William Blair & Company

Yeah, thanks for the question. First I want to say horrible numbers, you guys need to do better. But my question is, can you quantify the backlog or book-to-bill or anything that might help us understand kind of how much of a gap there is between demand and supply? And is there any risk that customers are over ordering right now where you could see an air gap in demand maybe in sometime in 2022?

Ita Brennan
Chief Financial Officer at Arista Networks

Yeah, Jason, I know lots of folks have been talking about bookings and trying to put some boundaries around that. I just think it's really hard from a -- from a timing perspective. When you have these lead times, of course you're going to have accelerated bookings and larger bookings and certainly we have our fair share of that, right. There is no. It's so difficult to talk about the business I think in that context. So we're more focused on what can we deploy and that's how we're running it internally as well, right. What are the periods where these bookings will get deployed and building out deployment plans and that's really what's going to matter. I mean, I think when you think about the business that way, the pull-ins and push out of the actual bookings numbers and how much visibility you're getting, etc., becomes less important, right.

Now kind of just -- now talking your question. We have obviously lots of demand. We've talked about the demand that we have. But these are extended lead time. So we're just focused on making sure we understand how it's going to get deployed.

Jayshree V. Ullal
President and Chief Executive Officer at Arista Networks

Yeah. And I want to echo what Ita just said. We're not -- we're not going to get excited about backlog, we're going to get excited about deploying our customers with real revenue and some of the backlog military alliance and remember they're cancellable orders. Some of them may not. So it's best to be responsible as a company as we always have been and share with you that demand is certainly out stripping supply, no question about that, and we're going to work hard as hell on fulfilling the supply and improving the supply.

Liz Stine
Director of Investor Relations Advocacy at Arista Networks

Next question please. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Meta Marshall with Morgan Stanley.

Meta Marshall
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Great, thanks. Ita, I realize it's kind of difficult to quantify the supply chain impact currently, but if anyway to help us with the gross margin impact? And should we see the gross margin step down in the guide as more supply chain related or more related to the mix of revenue types? Thanks.

Ita Brennan
Chief Financial Officer at Arista Networks

Yeah, I think the best way to think about it is that we've been operating at the upper end of that range for the last couple of quarters, that's definitely a customer mix effect, right. It's offsetting some of the cost impacts as well and we've been deferring some of the, as Paul was talking about some of the larger customer revenue as well. So I think as you look forward kind of outside of these quarters when the mix of the business comes back to something more balanced, I think you will see us back towards the bottom end of that range from time-to-time. I think we believe we'll stay in the range over a long period of time, but there will be quarters where we could be pressuring the bottom end of that range or maybe even break the bottom end of that range while for, say its added for four quarters, I think we can still be okay. So there is definitely a customer element to this. There is a cost increase element to this and we will benefit from some customer price increases here that will help offset some of that, but I think the days of living at the upper end of that range, I wouldn't assume that we can do that on a ongoing basis as you look forward.

Meta Marshall
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Got it. And not to trap to you in the like saying forward guidance, but just a further price increases. Obviously, you probably wouldn't see most of that impact to Q4, you would expect the price increases impacts more Q1 in 2022 [Technical Issues]

Jayshree V. Ullal
President and Chief Executive Officer at Arista Networks

Thanks, Meta.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of David Vogt with UBS.

David Vogt
Analyst at UBS Group

Great. Thank you guys for taking the question. This is a question for both I guess Jayshree and Ita. I just want to follow-up on the Cloud Titan capex and the hyperscaler capex and the visibility. I think it's fairly well documented that the balance of this year into 2022 there's going to be significant data center expansion and availability expansion by the hyperscalers and so that's clearly reflected in your confidence. But you noted that you have a little bit more than a year visibility. I mean, how should we think about 2023? I know we don't even '22 guidance yet, but given the strength and the expansion and the availability and the datacenter trajectory, how do we think about that? And then just as a follow-up on pricing. When you think you have a 10% price hike that you're going to implement in a couple of weeks, in your mind is that sort of more than offsets the supply chain or is it -- is there a way to quantify how we're thinking about price versus the margin impact from the higher component? Does it cut, does it reduce it by 50%? Is there some way to think about it that we can model out going forward? Thank you.

Ita Brennan
Chief Financial Officer at Arista Networks

Yeah, no, I mean, we've tried be very transparent with customers in terms of what we're seeing on the cost side and looking for them to help us kind of offset that. So we're definitely not looking to increase margin or make margin on that. We've been, we've been very open and transparent. But what we are seeing on the cost side and looking for help to offset that since we had...

Jayshree V. Ullal
President and Chief Executive Officer at Arista Networks

Yeah, I'm, to answer your question on 2023, I guess I would say stay tuned for the Analyst Day, we'll try and give you better visibility on '22 and give you some visionary statements on 2023 and beyond.

David Vogt
Analyst at UBS Group

Great, thank you guys.

Ita Brennan
Chief Financial Officer at Arista Networks

Thanks, David.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Amit Daryanani with Evercore ISI.

Amit Daryanani
Analyst at Evercore ISI

Perfect. Thank you, Alex. And my congratulations as well to you. I guess when I look at your performance '21, based on the midpoint of your guide for December, I think you would have clearly gained some sizable market share in the year. I'd love to understand, do you think these share gains are coming from white-box vendors or coming more from sort of the traditional competition that you have? And then maybe a second part of this, as you think about the next couple of years, could you see customers that use white-box solutions today come to Arista? And if so, what do you think would motivate them to do so? Thank you.

Jayshree V. Ullal
President and Chief Executive Officer at Arista Networks

Both very good questions and related to each other. I would say this year with all the supply chain issues, much more of our share gains is coming from enterprise and Cloud Titans, just getting our fair share from our peers in the industry, not necessarily white-box. If you start forward to later years, I do think Arista will have an advantage not just in product capability, but also in the ability to rapidly supply product probably better than some of the white boxes and Anshul has often alluded to this. So the make versus buy decision for many of our Cloud Titans may may shift in the direction of Arista rather than strictly white boxes. We look forward to that. I'm not going to make any guesses on that, but I don't preclude that and neither has Anshul when he has spoken in the past. So it's certainly wasn't part of the market share gains and the growth this year, but it could be next year.

Amit Daryanani
Analyst at Evercore ISI

Perfect, thank you.

Liz Stine
Director of Investor Relations Advocacy at Arista Networks

Thanks, Amit.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Pierre Ferragu with the New Street.

Pierre Ferragu
Analyst at New Street Research

Hey, thanks for that's for taking my question. I'm very intrigued by the one-year visibility you have with your cloud clients and on that front I was wondering first Facebook, one of your important client, hiked the capex for next by like 60%, 65% or so last week and I was wondering is that something that is -- I would say aligned with the visibility you have or if it came as a surprise? And then along the same line within that visibility, how do you see the spending of Cloud Titans changing in terms of how it is split between what's happening inside the data center, which is more on the switching side and what is more happening outside the data center in the DCI and more on the routing side? Thanks for that.

Jayshree V. Ullal
President and Chief Executive Officer at Arista Networks

Yeah, thanks, Pierre. Both again very good questions. So I'll take the second one first. I think Arista's presence for most part until recently has been intra datacenter. But what has been phenomenal to watch my Cloud Titan team do led by Anshul, Martin and others is the use cases have proliferated not only outside the data center with DCI, but routing, AI use cases, top of rack use cases, special customized use cases. So, both within the data center and outside Arista is getting its fair share of opportunity to respond. And then we are doing a lot of proof of concepts and testing work with them.

Regarding the Cloud Titan capex spend, we're always surprised when the number is actually come out because they're in billions and of course they're nowhere close to the percentage they spend with us necessarily. But our relationship with Facebook dates back now at least four, five years. We have done joint development with them in and they have paused and we've jointly developed products with them. We have shared with you in the past that we are developing our next generation of products with them with 200 gig. So we were pleasantly surprised, but we were not completely surprised.

Pierre Ferragu
Analyst at New Street Research

Thanks, Jayshree. That's great.

Jayshree V. Ullal
President and Chief Executive Officer at Arista Networks

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Aaron Rakers with Wells Fargo.

Aaron Rakers
Analyst at Wells Fargo & Company

Yeah, thanks for taking the question and congratulations as well from me. I think the one number that stands out the most to me is your $2.1 billion plus purchase commitments. And I think that's up over 4 times relative to what it was exiting last year. I think going into kind of the June quarter the expectations were that maybe some of these component constraints would start to ease as we move into the mid part of '22 and certainly into the second half. I'm just curious, your best assessment right now where you stand on some of those lead times starting to normalize or shorten back down, and do I think that you're going to carry kind of this higher degree of visibility well into 2023 at this point? Thank you.

Operator

And presenters is your line muted?

Ita Brennan
Chief Financial Officer at Arista Networks

Sorry about that. I don't know when that... Can you help me with how much of that you got?

Aaron Rakers
Analyst at Wells Fargo & Company

Actually I didn't hear any of it, I apologize.

Ita Brennan
Chief Financial Officer at Arista Networks

Okay, all right. Okay, let me start. Yes, so I think look we've -- we probably have two dynamics happening. We've seen a push out of lead times again with the products and the vendor that we were managing directly and that's probably I think now our view is that's probably the end of 2022 before we start to see things get better there. In addition to that, we've also seen a kind of broaden out to other components, right. And we are now managing vendors directly that would have normally gone through the supply chain, gone through the contract manufacturers, etc., and we're having to engage directly with those suppliers and then that's also driving some increase in those -- in those parts of purchase commitments and we're looking out longer with those suppliers as well. And so it's a combination. I think of both of those are faking that number increase. We are trying to focus on new products and products that have long life cycle so that gives us a little bit more leeway there in terms of taking a longer view and we'll continue to do that. But yeah, I don't think we've kind of touched the point yet where things are improving.

Jayshree V. Ullal
President and Chief Executive Officer at Arista Networks

And, Aaron, we see this as an important investment to the business. It is a decision that Ita, myself and Anshul have made very consciously to way we've got to invest in the business and we've got to invest in getting product to our customers. So we think this is an important part of our decision making process because of the prolonged situation here with supply chain.

Aaron Rakers
Analyst at Wells Fargo & Company

Very helpful, thank you.

Jayshree V. Ullal
President and Chief Executive Officer at Arista Networks

Thanks, Aaron.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ittai Kidron with Oppenheimer.

Ittai Kidron
Analyst at Oppenheimer & Co.

Thanks. Hey ladies, congrats. Great quarter. I guess a couple of questions for me. First of all with regards to the purchase commitments. Can you give us a little bit more color whether this is a response to competitors of yours doing the same of your suppliers and does this lock in volume or does it also like in price for the components that you're buying?

Ita Brennan
Chief Financial Officer at Arista Networks

Yeah, no, I think it's totally off working on our own strategy and as Jayshree mentioned earlier, we had started to do that right back at the beginning of last year even, so just a continuation of that. I think the biggest driver is obviously what's happening in the supply chain and understanding what's happening in the supply chain and just the breadth of suppliers that we need to kind of manage directly and start to deal with directly right now and I think that's the biggest driver of the change as opposed to anything that's -- than anybody else is doing, etc. I'm sorry, what was the second part of your question, Ittai?

Ittai Kidron
Analyst at Oppenheimer & Co.

This lock in just the volume or does it also lock in the prices for you going forward?

Ita Brennan
Chief Financial Officer at Arista Networks

Yeah, I mean, when you make long-term commitments, there is kind of a pricing element to that, that you have a set price base. As things start to get better, we'll see how some of that plays out, right. But there obviously is the pricing in the market today and that pricing is kind of what you're making these commitments. But as time -- we've seen over time in the past as things start to loosen up and some of that can change as well. But right now it is the commitment to volume and price.

Ittai Kidron
Analyst at Oppenheimer & Co.

Thank you.

Jayshree V. Ullal
President and Chief Executive Officer at Arista Networks

Thanks, Ittai.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Simon Leopold with Raymond James.

Simon Leopold
Analyst at Raymond James

Thanks for taking the question. As you probably remember early in my career I was told never to Hi-fi management on a public call, I'll leave it at that. I wanted to see if maybe you could expand a little bit on the campus opportunity which sounds like it's overshadowed by what's going on in datacenter, but just want to get a better sense of where you stand in that part of your business and the trajectory? Thank you.

Jayshree V. Ullal
President and Chief Executive Officer at Arista Networks

Thank you, Simon. We will take your virtual Hi-Fi [Technical Issues] I think the campus business has been very relevant to a seat of the table in with enterprise customers. We are now starting to see enterprise wins and logos where we win the campus before we win a data center, because many of these campuses don't have large data -- many of these enterprises don't have large data centers. So I think the conversation with strategy, the ability to bring all of the SILO datasets together, whether it's in your campus or data center on the core or van or branch is very important and customers are looking to us to build their modern and modernize their enterprise networks. So from that standpoint, although the numbers are still small and we're talking about doubling from 100 to 200, we think it will be extremely relevant strategically with our enterprise customers and to grow obviously in the next few years. There's also a component of channels where we're still pretty nascent. And most of our success and engagement to date is a direct, albeit fulfilled by channels, but we hope that will change over time and that will add further strength to our campus.

Simon Leopold
Analyst at Raymond James

Thank you.

Jayshree V. Ullal
President and Chief Executive Officer at Arista Networks

Thanks, Simon.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Tal Liani with Bank of America.

Tal Liani
Analyst at Bank of America

Hi guys. I have two questions. One is just if you can give us an update on campus switching where you are versus your targets? If you said it, I apologize. I just didn't hear it. And second, I just wanted to understand kind of about the accounting. Can you go over again the price increases, when are the kicking in? if they kicked in already? And then what happens with your cost of goods sold since it's on FIFO? I'm assuming it's on FIFO like everyone else. Does it mean that right now you're still recording cheaper components so the margins are higher, I'm just trying -- or maybe I am totally wrong. I just want to understand kind of the margin evolution as component pricing goes up and pricing increases kick in.

Jayshree V. Ullal
President and Chief Executive Officer at Arista Networks

Go ahead.

Ita Brennan
Chief Financial Officer at Arista Networks

Yeah, I mean it's some combination of all of those Tal. There some expedite expedited cost that did end up being carried expenses that we've been recognizing. We recognized the chunk last quarter. We had some again in Q3. There are other costs like higher price -- higher pricing, increases, etc., that will end up in inventory and will flow with the inventory and some of that obviously will burn through the inventory that we have in the supply chain and then we'll start to see those costs. Those will line up better hopefully with some of the price increases that we are passing on to customers as well. I mean, if it's going to be complex. It wont necessarily be perfect, right. But as we look at the various different scenario, there is a better chance of those lining up with the price increase, so that will help turn off some of that.

Jayshree V. Ullal
President and Chief Executive Officer at Arista Networks

And finally, Tal, on the campus. We committed to double the $100 million achievement we had last year and this year and here we are sitting two months away from the end of the year. So we believe we will reap it and we will have to set a new goal for next year.

Tal Liani
Analyst at Bank of America

Got it. And just going back to the margin, so I know you're probably going to discuss it tonight, but just in general how do we think about gross margin going forward?

Ita Brennan
Chief Financial Officer at Arista Networks

Yeah, I mean, it's definitely part of the discussion later, right.

Jayshree V. Ullal
President and Chief Executive Officer at Arista Networks

And I think you already mentioned. What was mentioned already is we continue to believe with the price increase effective November 4, which will really be effective next year by the time customers realize it and see it that we will -- we will be able to offset the escalating costs and our gross margin will depend on mix and as Ita has often said, if we are heavily mixed on the Cloud Titans we could be on the low end of the 63 to 65 [Phonetic] and pressured on gross margin there. If we are heavily mixed on the enterprise, we could be on the mid to high-end like we have been [Indecipherable]

Tal Liani
Analyst at Bank of America

Great, thank you.

Jayshree V. Ullal
President and Chief Executive Officer at Arista Networks

Thanks, Tal.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ben Bollin with Cleveland Research.

Ben Bollin
Analyst at Cleveland Research

Good afternoon and thank you for taking the question, Jayshree. I was hoping you could talk a little bit about how you view the current technology build out, the new technology build out for both enterprise and Cloud as they start to transition into 200 and 400, how do you see similar or different versus what you saw from 2016 to 2018 with more Cloud Titans building out 100. Any thoughts on duration, behavior, any puts and takes would be interesting? Thanks.

Jayshree V. Ullal
President and Chief Executive Officer at Arista Networks

Sure, Ben. I think the Cloud Titan behavior will be different than the enterprise behavior. On the Cloud Titan, you're going to see a much more rapid inflection to 200 gig and 400 gig, especially in the spine layers and the uplinks of the top of rack and they've always been early and fast adaptor of speeds and technology especially within the data center or even data center to data center. So we are expecting an inflection of 200 gig and 400 gig, that's basically has started this year was very challenged the eco system and availability of optics and even switches the last year. The year of infection in my view is really late this year and goes well in 2022.

On the enterprise, still, we expect to have by the end of this year 300 customers, 200 gig and 400 gig, primarily 400 gig I would say. And as you know, our customer base is more than 7,000. So obviously, 100 gig and 400 gig will continue to coexist and live happily ever after together, but we will start to see the uptick and adoption of 400 gig in the high-end and early adopters of enterprise as well like we're starting to see this year. So I think the next few years can be best characterized as inflection of new higher speeds like 200 gig and 400 gig and the continuation and adoption of 100 gig in the mainstream enterprise.

Ben Bollin
Analyst at Cleveland Research

Thanks, Jayshree. Thanks, Ben.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Erik Suppiger with JMP Securities.

Erik Suppiger
Analyst at JMP Securities

Yes, congrats, and curious how is the constraints affected the 400 gig market? It sounds like you've been -- you've been doing well there, but has that been a factor and does that make a difference from a market share perspective? Do you have any advantage or disadvantage in terms of access for your 400 gig components?

Jayshree V. Ullal
President and Chief Executive Officer at Arista Networks

I think I'd say we are as constrained on 400 gig components as we are on 100 gig components. So it's been a factor for all speeds, we're just constrained, what can I tell you. So, but our market share continues to be strong in both. We're doing well in both. Our flagship platform, the 7800 which is especially 400 gig dependent is one of the most popular products at the same 7280 and 100 gig versions of 75 and 7000 are very, very popular too. So supply chain is there for everything. It's not necessarily picking one speed over the other.

Erik Suppiger
Analyst at JMP Securities

Are the optics anything -- anything different?

Jayshree V. Ullal
President and Chief Executive Officer at Arista Networks

Optics is actually better than last year in terms of the ecosystem for 400 gig coming up, not different other than that. It's actually improved for 400 gig.

Erik Suppiger
Analyst at JMP Securities

Okay, very good. Thank you.

Jayshree V. Ullal
President and Chief Executive Officer at Arista Networks

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of George Notter with Jefferies.

George Notter
Analyst at Jefferies Financial Group

Hi guys. Thanks very much. I guess I wanted to go back to your statement earlier, I'm paraphrasing, but I think you said you were running the business to demand rather than orders or something to that effect. Could you go back and kind of expand upon that. I'm just curious about what you meant on that? I assume you're trying to look through customer order books and try to see what they really need as opposed to excess ordering. Maybe you could just expand on that? Thanks.

Jayshree V. Ullal
President and Chief Executive Officer at Arista Networks

It's actually the other way around, George. What we said is -- all the just in time and built to forecast and being extremely disciplined about buying inventory only when the customer puts in an order has gone out the window a little bit. And because of these long lead times, we're having to plan to order well ahead of the customer orders of forecast, that's what we meant. So it's built to purchase orders to our supply chain rather than built to customer purchase orders, if that makes sense. Since this is still constrained on long lead times. So we're making a bet that the supply chain constraints which I hope will eventually improve will say that those of us who make those kind of purchase commitments. So we're having to get in there early and fast even before the customer orders come in.

George Notter
Analyst at Jefferies Financial Group

Our of curiosity, do you have any flexibility on those purchase commits? I mean are they cancellable on your side?

Jayshree V. Ullal
President and Chief Executive Officer at Arista Networks

Most of the semiconductor components are non-cancelable, but that's just the way the business is run. We've been careful to choose components that we don't need to cancel, like picking new products and taking common component to you across then. So we believe there's limited risk in the investment we've made.

George Notter
Analyst at Jefferies Financial Group

Super. Okay, thanks very much.

Liz Stine
Director of Investor Relations Advocacy at Arista Networks

Thanks, George. Operator, we have time for one more question.

Operator

Your final question comes from the line of Jon Lopez with The Vertical Group.

Jon Lopez
Analyst at The Vertical Group

Hi, thanks so much for squeezing me in. And I apologize because I understand the same topic, but hopefully will be the last one, we can cover the rest of the stuff on the Analyst Day. This has been alluded to a few times. If we look at your largest competitor, they've also like roughly doubled their purchase commitments fairly recently, you're not doing the same. The dollars collectively are like many multiples larger than other you ever have carried. I guess my question here is to what extent do you think inventory is actually evolving into a competitive weapon As we think about '22 and '23? And maybe like to what extent does it introduce risk like if you can't get supply as fast or in the same quantities that you're envisioning now cannot influence your revenue outlook in '22 or in '23?

Jayshree V. Ullal
President and Chief Executive Officer at Arista Networks

Yeah, no, I think there's no doubt that supply is shaping our revenue line right now, almost more so than demand, right. I think that is the factor, right. We are constrained. So supply is definitely a factor. I think in terms of looking at the purchase commitments, we're working very carefully with these suppliers and again we're expanding kind of the breadth of what we're doing and we are expanding kind of the lead times on the length of time that we're covering with those purchase commitments and I think that's important then again we're doing it on new products, newer products that have significant lives ahead of them. So really the risk we're taking somewhat is tying up some cash, etc. It's not because of the lifecycle of the products and stuff, it's not -- It's not really an obsolescence risk, right. But it could take some time to burn through that inventory if things change. But I think it's [Indecipherable] worth making. We're making it obviously in consultation and discussion with customers, etc. But it is kind of a longer lead time and then a broader set of suppliers than we'd normally carry, that's why you're seeing that big uptick is we're not only doing it for the owners that we used to in buffer in the past directly, but we're also now doing it for components that would have come to us through the CMs in a normal supply environment.

Jon Lopez
Analyst at The Vertical Group

Understood. Okay, thanks for the thoughts.

Jayshree V. Ullal
President and Chief Executive Officer at Arista Networks

Okay, thank you very much.

Liz Stine
Director of Investor Relations Advocacy at Arista Networks

This concludes the Arista Q3 2021 earnings call. We have posted a presentation which provides additional information on our fiscal results which you can access on the Investors section of our website. Thank you for joining us today.

Operator

[Operator Closing Remarks]

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