Mohawk Industries Q3 2021 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
October 28, 2021

There are 16 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning. My name is Abigail, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Mohawk Industries' Third Quarter 2021 Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, There will be a question and answer period.

Operator

Conference. As a reminder, ladies and gentlemen, this conference is being recorded today, Friday, October 29, 2021. Thank you. I would now like to introduce Mr. James Brunk.

Operator

Mr. Brunk, you may begin your conference.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Abigail. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Mohawk Industries' quarterly investor call. Joining me on today's call are Jeff Lorbon, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer and Chris Welborn, President and Chief Operating Officer. Today, we'll update you on the company's 3rd quarter results. I'd like to remind everyone that our press release and statements that we make during this call may include forward looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, which are subject to various risks and uncertainties, including, but not limited to, those set forth in our press release and our periodic filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Speaker 1

This call may include discussion of non GAAP numbers. For a reconciliation of any non GAAP to GAAP amounts, please refer to our Form 8 ks and press release in the Investors section of our website. Now I'll turn the call over to Jeff for his opening remarks. Jeff?

Speaker 2

Thank you, Jim. Our 3rd quarter results exceeded our expectations As net sales rose 9% over the prior year to approximately $2,800,000,000 our adjusted EPS was $3.95 per share. All of our businesses performed well managing through a changing environment. In a period, COVID directly and indirectly impacted many economies, creating supply chain difficulties that disrupted production as well as leading the government lockdowns in Australia, New Zealand and Malaysia that halted manufacturing and retail. Despite these and other headwinds, our 3rd quarter sales trends continued in most regions With Europe's results reflecting more normal summer seasonality, home sales were robust across most geographies and consumers continued remodeling investments at a strong pace.

Speaker 2

Year over year, the commercial sector showed improvement though at a slower rate as COVID concerns delayed the timing of some projects. Our strategies to enhance organizational flexibility, reduce product and operational complexity and aligned pricing with costs improved our results in the period. We continue to implement lean processes and reduce complexity in manufacturing and logistics. We're managing our investments in SG and A to support new products that will expand our future revenues and margins. Even with greater external constraints, we ran most of our operations at high levels and we successfully managed many interruptions across the enterprise.

Speaker 2

Rather than improving as we expected, the availability of labor, materials and transportation became more challenging, resulting in higher costs in the period. Tight chemical supplies in particular reduced the output of our LVT, carpet, laminate and board panels. While we are presently seeing COVID cases declining in most of the regions, many of our operations experienced increased absenteeism during the period affecting our efficiencies and production. For the near term, we do not see any significant changes in these external pressures. Due to supply shortages, government regulations and political issues, natural gas costs in Europe are presently about 4 times as high than they were earlier in the year.

Speaker 2

This adds a temporary challenge to our European businesses as higher costs are reflected in gas, electricity and our materials. Though our inventories increased during the period, mostly due to higher material costs and transportation delays on customer orders. Our service levels remained below historical norms. Most of our businesses are carrying significant order backlogs And we plan to run our operations at high levels during the Q4 to improve our service and efficiencies. Currently, some of our fastest growing products are being limited by material and capacity constraints.

Speaker 2

We have initiated additional investments to increase our production of those and increase our sales and service. Completion of those projects is being extended due to longer lead times on building materials and Equipment. Our results have improved significantly during 2021 and we generated over $1,900,000,000 of EBITDA for the trailing 12 months. Given this in our current valuations, our Board increased our stock purchase program by an additional $500,000,000 Since the end of the Q2, we've bought approximately $250,000,000 of our stock at an average price of $193 per share. With our current low leverage, we have the capital to pursue additional investments and acquisitions to expand our sales and profitability.

Speaker 2

Jim will now review our Q3 financials. Thank you, Jeff.

Speaker 1

Sales for the quarter exceeded $2,800,000,000 a 9 point 4% increase as reported and 8.7% on a constant basis. All segments showed growth primarily due to price and mix actions as volume was generally constrained by supply, labor, transportation and COVID disruptions. Gross margin as reported was 29.7 or 29.8 percent excluding charges, increasing from 28.3% last year. The year over year increase was driven primarily by crude price and mix, which offset the increasing rate of inflation. In addition, gains in productivity, less year over year downtime and favorable FX improved our margins.

Speaker 1

The actual detailed amounts of these items will be included in the MD and A section of our 10 Q, which will be filed after the call. SG and A as reported was 16.9% and flat versus prior year excluding charges. Increased SG and A dollars versus prior year as a result of costs that were curtailed due to the COVID-nineteen pandemic, higher sales, increased inflation, new product development and price and mix. Operating margin as reported was 12.8%. Restructuring charges were approximately $1,000,000 And we have reached our original savings goal exceeding $100,000,000 in annual savings.

Speaker 1

We continue though to pursue other initiatives to lower our costs. Operating margins, excluding charges, were also 12.8%, improving from 11.5% in the prior year for 130 basis points. The increase was driven by improved price and mix, offsetting increasing inflation as well as gains in productivity, favorable FX and greater year over year manufacturing uptime improving our results. We are partially offset by impact of constrained volume and increased cost in product development. Interest expense was $15,000,000 in the quarter, flat versus prior year.

Speaker 1

Our non GAAP tax rate was 21.4 versus 16.9% in the prior year, and we still expect the full year rate to be between 21.5% 22.5%. Earnings per share as reported were $3.93 and excluding charges were 3.95 percent $3.95 excuse me, increasing by 21% versus prior year. Now turning to the segments. Global Ceramics sales came in at just under $1,000,000,000 a 9.6% increase as reported or approximately 9.1% on a constant basis, led by strengthening price and mix across our geographic regions. Brazil, Mexico and the U.

Speaker 1

S. Countertop business saw the strongest volume gains, While other products performed well against a difficult year over year Q3 comparison, which had an abnormal seasonality. Operating margin, excluding charges, was 11.9%, up 160 basis points versus prior year due to the favorable price mix offsetting increasing inflation, which improved with improved productivity and limited year over year shutdowns strengthening our results, partially offset by increased costs and new product development. Flooring North America sales just exceeded $1,000,000,000 a 6.9% increase as reported. The sales growth was driven by price and mix actions to offset rising costs as our sales volumes were impacted by supply, transportation and labor constraints.

Speaker 1

Operating margin excluding charges was 11.4%, That's an increase of 3 20 basis points versus prior year. The improvement was driven by positive price mix offsetting the increasing inflation and volume constraints. In addition, productivity gains and less temporary shutdowns favorably impacted our results. Employing Rest of the World, sales exceeded $760,000,000 a 12.7% as reported increase or 10.5% on a constant basis, driven again by price and mix actions, while volumes Here we're constrained by material disruptions, especially in LVT, a return to a normal summer seasonality and COVID restrictions, which caused lockdowns in Australia, New Zealand and Malaysia. Operating margin, excluding charges, was 17.4 This is a decrease versus prior year as a result of the return to a normal summer holiday, along with material constraints and COVID lockdowns, which increased our costs and lowered productivity, volume and increased the temporary shutdown.

Speaker 1

Improved price mix, which offset the increase in inflation and favorable FX benefited our results. Corporate eliminations were $11,000,000 and I would expect that to be $45,000,000 for the full year. Taking a look at the balance sheet. Cash for the quarter exceeded $1,100,000,000 with free cash flow of $351,000,000 in the quarter and over $720,000,000 in the 3rd quarter year to date. Receivables were just shy of $1,900,000,000 with a DSO of just under 57 days.

Speaker 1

Inventories were just over $2,200,000,000 an increase of approximately 374,000,000 or 20% from the prior year. That's an increase of about 16% as you compare it to the year end balance. Inventory days just under 107 days compared to our low point last year at just under 100 days and 103 days and at the year end. Property, plant and equipment exceeded $4,400,000,000 with CapEx for the quarter $48,000,000 in line with our D and A. Full year CapEx is currently projected to be $650,000,000 with D and A projected at $586,000,000 Looking at the current debt.

Speaker 1

One note on October 19, the company redeemed at par their January 2022 €500,000,000 2 percent senior notes plus unpaid interest utilizing cash on hand. The balance sheet overall and cash flow remained very strong with Gross debt as of the end of Q3 of $2,300,000,000 and leverage at 0.6 times to adjusted EBITDA. And with that, I will turn it over to Chris to review our operational results.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Jim. For the period, our Flooring Rest of World segment sales increased 12.7% as reported and 10.5% on a constant basis. Operating margins were 17.4% as a result of pricing and mix improvements offset by inflation and a return to more normal seasonality in the period. During the quarter, sales were strong across our product categories and geographies outside those affected by government lockdowns. Overall, raw material supplies continue to impact our operations with LVT production affected the most during the quarter.

Speaker 3

We expect that material, energy and transportation inflation will continue and chemical costs that rely on gas will accelerate in upcoming periods. During the period, COVID shutdowns in Malaysia, Australia and New Zealand interrupted our production and sales. These restrictions have now been lifted and we are ramping up production to meet demand. Our laminate collections continue to have strong sales growth with consumers embracing our proprietary waterproof products for their performance and realistic visuals. Our new premium laminate introductions feature unique surfaces that replicate handcrafted wood floors.

Speaker 3

Our sales volume increased during the period, though our margins were pressured by higher than anticipated raw material and transportation inflation. We had a new capacity in Europe to meet demand and we are initiating other projects to support further sales growth. In Russia and Brazil, our laminate businesses are growing as we expand distribution with our leading collections. As anticipated, our LVT sales were lower during the period given material shortages and lower production that reduced our output. We minimized the impact by improving our product mix and raising prices to pass through inflation.

Speaker 3

Sales of our higher value rigid LVT collections with patented Watertight Joint outperformed and benefited our mix. We anticipate improved material availability in the 4th quarter to support higher LVT production levels and improve our service. We have announced additional price increases as our energy and material costs continue to rise. Our sheet vinyl production and sales were impacted by tight material supply and transportation bottlenecks and outbound shipments. Our Russian sheet vinyl business performed well with sales growing as our distribution expanded.

Speaker 3

Our wood plant in Malaysia resumed full operations in September after 12 weeks of government lockdowns due to COVID. Sales of our wood products will be down in both the 3rd and 4th quarters as our inventories have been depleted. We have acquired a European wood veneer plant to improve supply, yields and Cost of Our Wood Flooring. We're introducing waterproof wood collections with our patented WetProtect technology in our markets after its successful launch in the U. S.

Speaker 3

Production stops in Australia and New Zealand reduced our sales and margins and we are scaling up our operations to meet demand as the markets reopen. Our new premium collections, enhanced merchandising and consumer advertising will benefit our business as the markets return to normal. We are increasing pricing to offset inflation and transportation costs. Sales of our European insulation panels grew in the period as we implemented another price increase to offset rising material inflation. Our income improved with disruptions in manufacturing due to tight material supplies.

Speaker 3

We acquired an insulation manufacturer in Ireland and have begun integrating their operations with our existing business. During the Q3, our panels business grew and margins expanded as we increased our price mix and pricing. We're introducing a new decorative range to enhance our participation in specified markets. We've added new press that will increase our capacity and add more differentiated features to our products. Our ongoing pricing actions offset rapidly rising and we will increase prices further in response to inflation.

Speaker 3

In the Q4, we will complete the acquisition of an MDF which will enhance our sustainability position. In the 3rd quarter period, our Flooring North America segment sales increased 6 0.9% and operating margins were 11.3% as reported as a result of productivity, pricing and mix improvements, partially offset by inflation. Flooring North America had strong results given the material, transportation and labor constraints impacting our sales and production during the period. Supplies of most oil related chemicals were restricted, creating unscheduled production stops that lowered our sales and raised our costs. We implemented additional price increases across most product categories as inflationary Pressures intensified.

Speaker 3

We continue to streamline our product portfolio and reduce operational complexity, benefiting our efficiencies and quality. In residential carpet, limited material and labor availability are affecting our production and manufacturing costs. We continue to increase prices to recover continued inflation. Volume and efficiencies are being negatively impacted by low inventories, shorter runs and labor challenges. We are replacing older assets with more efficient equipment, which is improving our labor productivity.

Speaker 3

We have an elevated backlog and we plan to run our operations at high levels in the Q4 to improve service and replenish inventories. We are enhancing our sales and mix as consumers upgrade their homes with our premium, smart strand and luxury nylon collections. Commercial sales improved in the period, though the rate of growth has slowed as COVID cases increased. The government, education and healthcare sectors outpaced office, retail and hospitality channels, which are recovering more slowly. Our hard surface sales are growing as we expand our offering and increase specifications in commercial projects.

Speaker 3

We are investing in more efficient assets to improve cost, enhanced styling and reduced labor requirements. Our laminate and wood business continues to grow, though our sales were restricted by our capacities. Our new laminate line should be operational by the end of this year to expand our sales and provide more advanced features. Chemical shortages limited our laminate production in the period as we responded by reengineering our formulations to maximize our output. We are reducing complexities to simplify our operations and improve our efficiencies and production.

Speaker 3

Our new high performance ultra wood collections are increasing our mix in wood And the productivity of our new plant is improving as volume increases. Our LVT sales increased in the period even with material supplies limiting production and shipping days in our sourced products. We have improved our mix with enhanced features and lowered our costs by streamlining our processes. Our plant has increased throughput and yields despite disruptions from a lack of material supply. To support future growth, we are expanding our LVT operations adding approximately $160,000,000 of production with the initial phase beginning at the end of this year.

Speaker 3

We are also increasing our sheet vinyl plants production to satisfy expanding sales of our collections. In the quarter, our Global Ceramics segment sales increased 9.6% as reported and 9.1% on a constant basis. Operating margins were 11.9% as a result of higher volume, productivity, pricing and mix improvements, partially offset by inflation. Our U. S.

Speaker 3

Ceramic business grew during the period with the residential sector remaining strong and commercial continuing to show improvement. Our margins improved in the quarter as we implemented price increases to offset higher transportation and raw material costs, enhanced our mix and increased output from our plants. Additional pricing actions are being taken to offset continuing inflation. We are reducing our manufacturing costs by reengineering our products, utilizing alternative materials and enhancing our logistics strategies. We're introducing higher value products with new printing technologies, textured finishes and polished services to provide alternatives to premium imported tile.

Speaker 3

We are growing our Studio Direct program that focuses on high end remodeling and exterior collections that sell through outdoor specialists and home centers. Our quartz countertop sales continue to grow substantially as our production recovered during the period. Our countertop mix is improving as sales of a higher end visuals grow at a faster rate. Our Mexican and Brazilian ceramic businesses are growing as we increase prices to offset inflation in both countries. We are refining our product offering, improving our efficiencies and increasing our output.

Speaker 3

We have expanded our participation in residential projects and commercial sales. We are increasing the number of retailers that exclusively sell our products. We are investing in new manufacturing assets in both countries to expand our production and enhance our product offering. Sales in our European ceramic business remained strong as vacation schedules returned to normal. Increases in price, mix and productivity enhanced our results, though they were more than offset by rising inflation.

Speaker 3

Our new products with enhanced visuals, unique shapes and large slabs increased our average selling price and improved our mix. We are upgrading production lines to further enhance our styling and improve our efficiencies. In the period, natural gas and electricity prices in Europe rose to unprecedented levels due to anticipated shortages. Our margins will be negatively impacted until our prices align with energy cost in the future. Sales and margins increased in our Russian ceramic business as enhanced mix and increased prices offset higher inflation.

Speaker 3

Lower inventories and capacity limitations impacted our sales volume in the period and we will continue to manage our mix until new capacity is operational. To an equipment delay, our production expansion will not be ready until the Q3 of next year. Our sanitary ware sales are growing significantly as we expand production and our operations. With that, I'll return the call to Jeff.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Chris. Throughout 2021, Mohawk has delivered exceptional results with higher sales growth, margin expansion and robust cash generation. For the Q4, we anticipate that industry seasonality will be more typical unlike last year when demand was unusually high. In the period, we'll run our operations at high levels to support our sales, improve our service and increase our inventory. Our sales in some categories are being limited by our manufacturing capacities and we're increasing investments to expand the production of these growing categories.

Speaker 2

We're continuing to implement additional price increases and manage staffing, supply and transportation constraints across the business. We're maintaining aggressive cost management, leveraging technology and enhancing our strategies across the enterprise. And Ceramic Europe. Record gas prices are increasing the net cost by approximately $25,000,000 in the 4th quarter It will take some time for the industry to adjust to the higher costs. In addition, our Q4 calendar had 6% fewer days than the prior year.

Speaker 2

Given these factors, we anticipate our 4th quarter adjusted EPS to be $2.80 to $2.90 excluding any restructuring charges. Despite temporary challenges from inflation and material availability, Our long term outlook remains optimistic with new home construction and residential remodeling projected to remain robust and the commercial sector improving as businesses invest and grow. Next year, our sales should grow with capacity expansions and new innovative product introductions. Our strategies to optimize our results continue to evolve with the economic and supply chain conditions. Our balance sheet is the strongest in history and it supports increased internal investments and strategic acquisitions.

Speaker 2

We'll now be glad to take your questions.

Operator

Management request that you limit your questions to one primary and one follow-up. Your first question comes from the line of Matthew Bouley with Barclays. Your line is

Speaker 2

now open.

Speaker 1

Good morning. Thank you for taking the questions. So on the natural gas Headwind, the $25,000,000 that you called out in Q4. Should we assume that $25,000,000 is kind of a good run rate to think about going forward If prices don't abate and what confidence do you have relative to 2018 when we last saw this That you will be able to align that with price. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Well, gas and electricity costs depend on Russian actions, which are presently unpredictable. Gas prices are expected to decline after the winter. Timing of increases is being impacted by hedges and further increases are anticipated. We anticipate Q1 impact will be greater than Q4, Q2 will get better and Q3 prices will cover inflation, But market changes can dramatically impact that result.

Speaker 2

Just as a note, yesterday, Putin said something And the price has dropped 10%. So it's highly volatile and we'll have to keep adjusting to the circumstances.

Speaker 1

Understood. That's very helpful color. Second one on Flooring Rest of World. I mean, you've been signaling all year that There will be a normal seasonality this year and as expected, the margin was down versus the prior year, but it was still over 17%. Would you say that that's kind of a fair representation of how rest of world profitability may look going forward?

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Speaker 3

Well, our business performed well as a result of pricing and mix improvements offset by a return to more normal seasonality and inflation pressures. Sales were strong across our product categories and geographies outside those affected by the government lockdowns. Overall, raw material supplies continue to impact our operations with LVT production affected the most. Inflation in materials, transport and energy are continuing and chemical costs based on gas will accelerate. This year vacation stopped taking in Q3 as typical versus last year, our move with the QT with COVID.

Speaker 1

And one additional point there, Matt, is margins, you're right, are historically high. There's really many moving parts with energy and material costs And we'll continue to push price increases in response to that.

Speaker 4

Okay. Thanks, everyone, and good luck.

Operator

Our next question is from Susan Maklari with Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.

Speaker 5

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking the questions.

Speaker 1

Good morning.

Speaker 5

My first question is, as we think about the Q4, you've seen some really nice improvement in the flooring North America margins over the last couple of quarters. How should we be thinking about that, given the seasonality and some of the pressures that are coming into the business?

Speaker 2

As we look at 4th quarter, So far this year, we've delivered exceptional results with the EBITDA up to $1,900,000,000 in the trailing 12 months. We've grown the sales, we've expanded the margins, we've had robust cash generation. We anticipate the Q4 seasonality will be more typical Last year was, which was really strong through the end, and we have the 6% days you have to put in it. We'll run all the facilities at high levels, And we're increasing investments to expand the constricted areas that we're in. We're implementing additional price increases And we expect at this point supply and labor constraints to continue through the end of the year.

Speaker 2

We don't see anything stopping them now. And then We have to keep putting in the ceramic Europe piece, which should impact the quarter by $25,000,000 based on our best estimate at this point.

Speaker 5

Okay. That's helpful. And then following up on that, as we think about 2022 and the backlogs that you're sort of Presumably entering the year with, how do you think about the ability to continue to expand the margins next year? And is there any one segment where maybe we should be expecting a bigger move relative to another?

Speaker 2

If you look out with despite the short term challenges that we're having today, We believe the long term outlook remains optimistic. You start looking at the overall direction of the economies. You have government policies remain Supportive. The economy and spending should improve. Inflation is projected to moderate And the disruptions in supply and transportation are expected to decline.

Speaker 2

In Europe, we have the temporary problem with this rapid increase electricity inflation, which will impact both our energy and material costs across the businesses. The forward prices are expected to drop in half Once we get through the winter, with Ceramic Europe, which is most impacted due to its gas use, its margins were expecting them to recover by the 3rd quarter as the industry aligns over time. If we look next year, we think the sales will continue to expand with residential expected to remain strong. We see commercial continuing its improvement. The margin expansion is really going to depend on what happens with the inflation intensity And how the competitive conditions change with it.

Speaker 2

We're doing everything we can to push price To keep up with it and through the 1st 3 quarters of this year, we've been able to align them. As we look at the next year, we expect to benefit From increasing production, improved material supply, higher inventories as well as new product innovations. But keep in mind, there's still some of the businesses that will remain constrained until the new investments we're putting in are operating. We expect to continue to generate significant cash, which will support the greater investments in acquisitions we're trying to fund.

Speaker 5

Okay. Thank you. That's very helpful color. Good luck.

Operator

Your next question is from Phil Ng with Jefferies. Your line is now open.

Speaker 6

Hey, guys. Congrats in a really good quarter in a tough environment. Certainly, we're focused on the outlook, but the Team has done a great job in a tough backdrop. Outside of European ceramic, can you give us Some color when you kind of expect price cost to be neutral. Your guide seems like it implies that the rest of your business is in actually a pretty good spot On the pricing and cost side.

Speaker 6

And then separately, given the seasonal nature of nat gas prices, certainly in Europe and you mentioned that the forward strip is expected to come down pretty hard. How are you tackling price increases? Are you looking at that forward curve and kind of guiding your approach on pricing? Or you're kind of looking at current prices and trying to be really proactive here.

Speaker 1

First, On a year to date basis through Q3, pricing and mix has offset inflation. We're continuing to raise prices as costs Change across most of the categories. I would say Energy Materials are very volatile at this point and difficult to predict. In Europe, as we said, actions by Russia that will really determine the energy and material that are gas dependent. And Jeff pointed out, it's very volatile just on comments.

Speaker 1

We're seeing the spot prices drop today Over 10%. So at this time and we expect Ceramic Europe to catch up sometime in Q3. Listen, we

Speaker 2

can't the best answer we can give you about the future in Europe is we're going to have to keep reacting to the market conditions. The material prices that we're purchasing are just now starting to reflect the higher gas prices. Gas prices, As anybody's guess what they're going to be tomorrow, let alone 6 months from now, is it? So the best we can say is that we're going to keep raising prices Aligned with the costs that are changing.

Speaker 6

That's really helpful. Demand seems pretty healthy here. It's not a demand issue and you got So curious, what are customers telling you, backlogs, any color on that front? Just more broadly, when we kind of look out to 2022 and appreciating that you got tougher comps, do you expect volumes for your carpet and ceramics business to kind of return to more Pre pandemic growth levels or continue this more elevated growth backdrop that we've seen in this past year?

Speaker 2

I think they're going to turn to more typical growth rates. We think the industry is going to Yes. It can't keep going up dramatically. Housing can't keep growing by 20% a year, is it? So we think it's going to be more normalized and Our sales as we go through.

Speaker 6

Okay. All right. Thanks a lot. Really appreciate the color guys.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is from Tim Wojs with Baird. Your line is now open.

Speaker 7

Hey, good morning everybody. Maybe just first question on capital investments as you think about 2022 and 2023. Is there any way to size What you're planning to spend next year and what the potential kind of output growth or kind of available capacity that might represent?

Speaker 2

Yes, just to begin with before the expansion, the production is being constrained by material supply, By capacities and by transportation today as well as import delays are limiting our sales at the moment. So to expand sales, reduce costs, we're investing we're estimating it's going to end up about $650,000,000 this year And with more planned next year, at the moment, we haven't finalized the budget, but we think it's going to be approximately $800,000,000 at this point. The major pieces that are getting expanded are laminate in the U. S. And Europe, ceramic in Mexico, Brazil and Russia, quartz countertop business, LVT in the U.

Speaker 2

S. And Europe as well as other areas. And then on top of these, there's a huge amount Being spent on efficiencies and productivity as we go through.

Speaker 7

Okay. Okay. That's helpful. And then From a competition standpoint on imports, is there any way that you guys think internally how your relative share has Formed versus imported ceramic or imported LVT. Is there a way to kind of articulate how your share has shifted as those Imports are more pressured.

Speaker 2

The estimates of it, there is so much change in the inventory levels. So in ceramic, all this is an example, in ceramic during the downturn, everybody stopped all the imports. So So what happened is all the imports got shoved down. So now all the inventories are trying to be rebuilt. It's really difficult to see the difference in the inventory and the distribution channel versus what the consumer is spending.

Speaker 2

So We think we're performing in line with the sales, but the inventories are changing dramatically in both.

Speaker 7

Do you get the feeling that you're taking share? Or do you feel like you're just kind of maintaining?

Speaker 2

But anything I gave you would be a guess.

Speaker 7

What's your guess?

Speaker 2

I think we're doing better.

Speaker 7

Okay. Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is with Keith Hughes with Truist. Your line is now open.

Speaker 8

Thank you. We've talked a lot about Constrained production in this call, you and a lot of other companies. If you had to look within North America, what product has been the most constrained? And to the end of the scale, which one have you had a better ability to produce? You have raw materials and things of that nature.

Speaker 2

The most constrained would be the LVT production, which the vinyl supply Has been hand to mouth, the plant stopping and starting, or just running whatever they give us. It's probably the most affected. The least effective from a material standpoint, It may be the carpet side might be least affected from it, but in North Georgia, there is a huge problem with labor And manning the plants given the amount of capacity in the area that everybody is pulling from the same labor pool Just to give you on extremes.

Speaker 8

Yes, I've seen your billboards on high 70 5, I get it. Second question, shifting to, sorry, you mentioned earlier some strength in some of your Central and South American businesses and Units. Could you talk there is input inputs there more readily available? Or What's causing those to come out to look a little bit better than some other areas?

Speaker 2

Our ceramic businesses in Mexico, Brazil and Russia are all running wide open. They're all running at capacity. As it came out of COVID, the industries are doing well. The backlogs are high. And in all three markets, we can't ship anymore.

Speaker 2

We went into the Q3 with low inventories, and we don't have material constraints or labor constraints in those markets, but We have capacity constraints.

Speaker 3

And Keith, we're adding capacity to Mexico, Brazil and Russia Next year.

Speaker 9

Okay, great. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is with Stephen Kim with Evercore ISI. Your line is now open.

Speaker 4

Yes. Thanks a lot guys. You gave us a lot of great information. So thanks for that. I think You said that you would be running equipment at high levels in 4Q.

Speaker 4

You talked about reformulation efforts that you're doing in many places, I guess, to get around some of the material shortages. And so I guess my question is, are you going to be able to produce at a higher level in 4Q than you did in 3Q? And then regarding sales, you said that would be seasonally slower. So I assume you'll be rebuilding inventory and that also implies that productivity will be pretty strong as a result. I'm wondering if that productivity benefit would be recognized in 4Q or would it be more in the first half of twenty twenty two when those products are ultimately sold?

Speaker 2

First is that the production rates we're assuming are going to be fairly similar to where we are in the Q3 Because at this point, we're not sure we're going to have any differences in all the constraints, and we don't know anything that's going to change them. What we're assuming is the unlike last year where the volume stays strong through the winter Where it normally falls off, we're going to be more typical, which will allow us to increase the inventories as we go through. The cost, I think, will flow through As normal as the inventory turns in the future.

Speaker 4

Okay. Yes, inventory. Got it. Great. And then you Talked about the U.

Speaker 4

S. LVT business, but there was a lot of information given in a short period of time. So I just want to make sure I heard that right. In the U. S.

Speaker 4

LVT business where you've historically been dealing with manufacturing challenges to try to get to nameplate capacity, In this quarter, am I led to believe that you're no longer really facing those process Challenges that it's really just a material availability. In other words, are you able to actually produce at nameplate capacity if you could get the raw materials in? And did I hear you say that you were adding a production line in the U. S. LVT business, about $160,000,000 or did I hear that wrong?

Speaker 2

So LVT was limited by material shortages in the U. S. And Europe. The product mix in the business is improving with higher rigid sales and better premium products. We're increasing prices with inflation.

Speaker 2

On the U. S, the imported products, we have the same freight delays everybody else does, which impacting the sales level. And what you heard was the plants have increased the productivity, the yields And what's coming out, but you have to have material to keep them going. And so they're stopping and starting day to day and week to week That's it. And then we did say that we are putting more production in.

Speaker 2

We're expecting the output of the existing plants To increase as soon as we get more material, to support it with our higher throughputs. And we did say we're expanding the production North America by another $160,000,000

Speaker 4

Is that going to be in the same building or are you going to be actually moving across the street With a new location there for the new line for a new line.

Speaker 2

The building that they're in is full.

Speaker 4

Yes. That's what I thought. Okay. Thanks, guys.

Operator

Our next question is with Mr. Truman Patterson with Wolfe Research. Your line is now open.

Speaker 10

Hey, good morning, everyone. Just Wanted to touch on the spike in the natural gas inflation, which kind of happened overnight. You all called out the $25,000,000 headwind in the European ceramics business. Is there any way you can help us Frame the size of the headwind in the U. S.

Speaker 10

Business, ceramics, U. S. Natural gas is Inflating in a pretty high level, maybe not to the same degree as Europe.

Speaker 2

Let's see, to give you some reference point, The gas and electricity, which we bundle together as energy, is roughly historically about 9%, 9%, 10% of the U. S. Cost. So you did that and just as a reference point, gas prices Maybe double where they were. So you can figure out approximately what the impact is, but we continue to raise prices trying to recover.

Speaker 10

Okay. Okay. Thank you for that. And then, you all have been fairly Instantly repurchasing shares over the past year. You just did another share repurchase authorization, have about $1,000,000,000 Cash on hand, are you all when you look forward based on the valuation, are you thinking about turning into a more programmatic share repurchaser.

Speaker 1

I think our cash priorities really haven't changed at this point, Truman. We're going to look at expanding constrained businesses and reducing our costs. We're going to try to broaden our product offering and drive innovation in the products. We're going We talked about 3 of them this morning and other acquisitions that are new markets and products, But share buyback will be part of that cash priority.

Speaker 2

You want to review with him the cash where it is today versus the end of the quarter? It's Lower than where you think.

Speaker 1

Yes. So we yes, we ended the quarter just over $1,000,000,000 in cash. And as I said In my prepared remarks, we have paid off the 2%, €500,000,000 in October. So We used on hand cash for that.

Speaker 10

All right. Thank you. Appreciate it.

Operator

And our next question is from Mike Dahl with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

Speaker 11

Thanks for taking my questions. Jeff, sorry to keep harping on the nat gas. It's just kind of an important Point given how dynamic it is. When you talk about the headwinds in 4Q and then growing into 1Q. I mean given the timing of the gas spike and the time to turn inventory, it actually seems like 1Q should be substantially north of The costs that you're seeing in 4Q, not just a little bit.

Speaker 11

I'm wondering if just directionally or order of magnitude, you can Give us some sense of that. I know it's still dynamic, but if things were to hold today, order of magnitude we're facing in 1Q.

Speaker 3

Yes. I could also just comment on that, that we've already raised prices twice even though we're significantly behind. We believe some of our competition hedge some of their needs and are not presently impacted as much limiting our short term pricing. But over time, we'll catch up.

Speaker 2

So in our estimates, we have Now remember, the costs we have in 1 quarter flow into the next quarter with our FIFO piece, so they'll pass through. So in ours, we have 2 really things going on. One is, we expect to continue increasing pricing over time to get it back. We've been limited a little bit because some of the competition did hedge some of it. So it's limiting how fast we can push it up.

Speaker 2

And then The other side of it is, if you look at the forward prices, the natural gas prices, I think, in the second quarter Prior to yesterday, we're predicted to drop 50% from where they are now. You have our pricing increasing and you have the future costs coming down, Which is how we get to where we want to be with it all lined up in the Q3 of next year.

Speaker 11

Okay, got it. And my follow-up is really around that when you Talk about the Q3 of next year. So I'm still unclear. Is that it seems clear that in ceramic. This is going to be a margin headwind until the Q3 of next year.

Speaker 11

But are you saying that margins for the overall business We'll be down year on year until 3Q given some of these moving pieces.

Speaker 2

All our comments on the margins are around Specifically the Ceramic Europe impact is it.

Speaker 3

Mike, just one thing on the energy. Our other businesses require much less Gas and the impact is much less. We also produce significant green energy using biomass and wind reducing requirements.

Speaker 2

So it will impact you on the side. I have a full view of things as they're changing. So in our European business Anything that's related to natural gas, we're just starting to see materials and other costs increase and we're trying to align the cost with the prices, but it's fluid.

Speaker 11

Yes, for sure. Okay. Thank you.

Operator

And our next question is from Michael Rehaut with JPMorgan. Your line is now open.

Speaker 9

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Almost good afternoon. First question, just want to kind of maybe sum up the views here around price costs for 4Q and maybe into 1Q. When you look at 4Q, depending on obviously what you're assuming from revenue, but you're more or less looking at a 200 basis point year over year drop.

Speaker 9

Now what's actually interesting also is that historically, There's a lot some of that drop is due A tougher comp in the year ago when you had flat margin sequentially, usually you can have 50 basis points to 100 basis points of Sequential margin declined 3Q to 4Q. You didn't have that last year with the shipping day tailwind. But when you look at that year over year drop, how much of that should be Covered or made up, let's say, in 1Q as the price increases that you're implementing today Have a chance to be more fully realized.

Speaker 2

You have to separate out the $25,000,000 related to ceramic. Then you have what you said. Last year was seasonally unusually high with the pieces, which Made the margin higher in the comp piece. And then, the 6% fewer days not only impacts The sales level, it also impacts the coverage of all the fixed overheads. So you have all those together.

Speaker 1

In addition to that, we really do think the challenges we saw in Q3 will continue in Q4. Material shortages really constrained a number of the businesses, which is impacting productivity and Obviously, increasing the cost and the chemical supplies will continue to put pressure on LVT, carpet, laminate and our boards business.

Speaker 9

Yes, maybe said it another way, When you look at 4Q, I mean, in 3Q, obviously, you had a lot of raw material inflation, but price And mix was able to offset that roughly. You're not seeing that in 4Q. I was just hoping to try and get a sense of Either on a dollar basis or a margin impact basis, what that negative price cost inclusive of the 25,000,000 Represents and on a consolidated company basis, when do you think that that Negative price cost might go back to neutral. Would it be the Q1 or the Q2? Just trying to get a sense of because you've been implementing price Throughout the year, they've been successful.

Speaker 9

But right now you have a gap in 4Q. When do you think that might flip to neutral or even positive?

Speaker 1

Well, it is a very volatile situation, like especially with the impact In Ceramic Europe, along with any chemicals that come from, really natural gas that is part of their manufacturing process. The deficit, we'll see the $25,000,000 flow through in the 4th quarter. That will increase Right today, we believe that will increase in the Q1, which creates a gap between price mix and inflation as well.

Speaker 9

If you were to, let's say, take out for a moment the natgas headwind, I mean, you're seeing inflation all over As well, just kind of putting aside the natgas headwind, would you expect Price cost to be neutral in the Q1 or, how should we think about that?

Speaker 2

Listen, we can't even Figure out what the gas price is going to be tomorrow. There is a headwind With the inflation, but every one of the businesses is increasing prices and we're trying to get them to align. There is some pressure in the short term, and we're trying to get them all aligned and we're raising prices as fast as we can in all the markets.

Speaker 1

And the flow through impact doesn't does negatively impact us as you go through Q4 into Q1 as well.

Speaker 4

Okay. Thanks

Speaker 2

a lot.

Operator

Our next question is from Adam Baum Gordon with Zelman. Your line is now open.

Speaker 12

Hey, good morning everyone. Thanks for taking my question. You mentioned that Some of the European ceramic producers who have hedges are benefiting and maybe holding back price a little bit. Are there any other categories Across your global portfolio where maybe pricing is getting a bit more difficult for some reason or another?

Speaker 2

The Ceramic Europe is the one that's most impacted. Most of the other businesses We've been able to push it through up to now, and we're trying to continue to do the same. The question will change is if the material prices Start softening and or if the marketplaces start dramatically changing. At this point, it looks like business will be good. And at this point, we see more increasing in inflation rather than decreases, but at some point, it will change.

Speaker 12

Got it. Thanks. And then just maybe thinking about Flooring North America specifically, are you worried about any potential demand destruction As you continue to increase pricing and really mainly focusing on carpet and LVT, just given their historical kind of demand patterns versus pricing.

Speaker 2

When prices continue to go up, some consumers have limited budgets. And when they have limited budgets, they start looking for cheaper alternatives to put in. At the same time, the installation costs have gone up And which is driving all the costs to not only that new housing and everything else. So There is a concern that at some point, you get it up as high as it can. On the other hand, you have all the positives going on.

Speaker 2

We have the economy still growing, more people working, wages going up, commercial expanding. So the question is, how are they going to balance out? Is it right at the moment, we and everybody else are still optimistic that we'll find the right balance? Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is from Eric Serge with Cleveland Research. Your line is now open.

Speaker 9

Thank you. 2 things.

Speaker 13

First of all, the addition of capacity in the U. S. LVT business, your U. S. Manufacturing has had a has traveled a road From start to where we are now and the market has evolved and imports have done what they've done.

Speaker 13

I'm just curious strategically or philosophically of why add capacity, why not import more and where do you think we are in the curve of penetration of LVT in terms of market share in the U. S.

Speaker 2

Let's see. First is The industry has gotten to be a large part. The rate of growth cannot keep up the rate of growth it had Based on the size of it, but it should still grow greater than the flooring industry and total. 2nd is, with all the shipping problems and all the different pieces, There are multiple players all putting more capacity in the United States, given those things. And we think that we should increase hours also to support our needs.

Speaker 13

Okay. Thank you. And then a follow-up and just try to be targeted to not ask Same question again. Excluding the days in the calendar in 4Q and excluding gas, What I'm trying to figure out is you've had inflation and supply chain challenges year to date and the margin in the business has performed quite well. Is there something that suggests that performance is not sustainable, again, ignoring the calendar issues and the natural gas issues In 4Q, is there something changing that suggests you can't sustain how you handle these challenges at this point?

Speaker 2

I don't think so. We're continuing to raise prices everywhere. The only thing is the magnitude of the increases and how long it takes to balance them up.

Speaker 4

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Our next Question is from Kathryn Thompson with Thompson Research Group. Your line is now open.

Speaker 14

Hey, good morning. This is actually Brian Biros on for Kathryn. First one, I guess, if the kind of general construction backlogs that are out there, if those start to get worked through next year at a higher pace, Do you think that's further supportive of more price increases even if inflation moderates? Or might there be pricing fatigue by then making it harder to pass on More price due to solely demand levels.

Speaker 2

I think for the pricing to start softening, You're going to have to see a change in the trend of all the raw materials across the category to do that. And then your guess is as good as mine If and when that will

Speaker 4

occur. Okay.

Speaker 14

Yes. And then maybe a follow-up on The internal initiatives you guys have around reducing complexity, is there a way to measure that or think about that maybe on a margin basis, Basis points or maybe just how much more is there to squeeze out on the reducing complexity level?

Speaker 2

Well, you've seen through the year that Our margins have expanded. You've seen the result of those things. And it's been by Taking out the complexity and the products and the offering, we're able to get more throughput through the plants and we're able to take more costs out. So you're seeing the results of it and the margins, and we have more of it planned.

Speaker 4

Thank you.

Operator

And our next question is from David MacGregory with Longbow Research. Your line is now open.

Speaker 15

Yes, good morning, everyone. You're talking about the commercial business. You said you were seeing improvement, but at a slower rate. I'm just wondering if you could talk about how price cost Spreads may be different in commercial versus what you're facing in residential and how you're approaching sort of the inflation recovery in commercial any differently than what you're Planning to do in residential as we go into 2022. The commercial business

Speaker 2

is a more differentiated offering. It is a sale made with performance design uniqueness, unique features. And so Because of that, it tends to be higher margin businesses with it. So they tend to be a little easier to recover the increases. Now what happens with the COVID increasing In the Q3, as it increased, what we saw were some of the projects that we thought were going To conclude and move forward got pushed out and that impacted the rate of growth So all the corporations are looking at how they see the economy and most of them still perceive it Fairly good.

Speaker 2

So we perceive that there'll be continued improvement over the next year.

Speaker 15

And can you remind us what Percentage of commercial is ceramic. I remember it's relatively high, but where would that

Speaker 2

stand today? Before it collapsed in the U. S, It was about 40%, now it's less because the whole category decreased.

Speaker 13

Right.

Speaker 15

Okay. That's all I got. Thanks very much.

Speaker 4

Thank you. Thank you.

Operator

And that's the end of our question and answer period. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Lower Pound for closing comments.

Speaker 2

Mohawk today is well positioned for the long term. We will overcome the short term disruptions that are in front of us. We appreciate all of you taking the time to join us. Have a great day.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

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Earnings Conference Call
Mohawk Industries Q3 2021
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