Marathon Petroleum Q4 2021 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
February 1, 2022

Key Takeaways

  • Margin outlook: During Q4, despite Omicron, gasoline and diesel demand remained strong with tight light product inventories, positioning U.S. refining margins well for 2022.
  • Share repurchases: Since November, MPC repurchased ~$3 billion of shares (55% of its $10 billion program) and secured board authorization for an additional $5 billion, boosting capital returns.
  • 2022 CapEx and Martinez conversion: MPC outlined $1.7 billion in capital spending, roughly half allocated to the $1.2 billion Martinez renewable fuels conversion (phase 1 startup targeted H2 2022), with engineering complete and feedstock agreements in place.
  • Strategic initiatives execution: MPC closed Speedway for $17.2 billion, started up the Dickinson renewable diesel facility (contributing $2.2 billion) and embedded $1.5 billion in sustainable cost reductions.
  • Q4 financials and balance sheet: Adjusted EPS of $1.30 and adj. EBITDA of $2.8 billion (+$400 million QoQ), returned $2.7 billion via buybacks and $354 million in dividends, finished with $10.8 billion cash and 21% gross debt/capital.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Marathon Petroleum Q4 2021
00:00 / 00:00

There are 14 speakers on the call.

Operator

Welcome to Marathon Petroleum Corporation's 4th Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. The slides that accompany this call can be found on our Web site at marathonpetroleum.com under the Investors tab. Joining me today on the call are Mike Hennigan, CEO Mary Anne Mannin, CFO and other members of the executive team. We invite you to read the Safe Harbor statements on Slide 2. We will be making forward looking statements today.

Operator

Actual results may differ. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are included there as well as in our filings with the SEC. References to MPC Capital Spending during the prepared remarks today reflect standalone MPC Capital excluding MPLX. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Mike.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Christina, and good morning and thanks for joining our call. Before we get into our results for the quarter, I wanted to provide a brief update on the macro environment. During the Q4, despite the widespread surge in Omnicom variant cases, gasoline demand held up well and on diesel, we're seeing highway trucking volumes continuing to meet or exceed seasonal records. While jet demand reached post pandemic highs in the 4th quarter, It's still roughly 15% below 2019 levels as business travel remains suppressed, but we expect to see recovery in that this year as well. When we spoke with you in November, we were cautious about rising COVID cases this winter and the potential impact.

Speaker 1

Based on the trends over the last few months, We become less concerned about the pace of recovery in transportation fuels demand. Light product inventories remain tight and U. S. Demand continues to recover, We believe that refining margins will be well positioned for 2022. On the aspects of the business that are within our control, site.

Speaker 1

This quarter we made continued progress on our priorities. Since our last earnings call at the beginning of November, we've repurchased approximately $3,000,000,000 of shares. That puts us at approximately 55% complete on our initial $10,000,000,000 share repurchase program. Site. Further reinforcing our commitment to return capital to shareholders, we obtained Board approval site for an additional $5,000,000,000 in share repurchase authorization.

Speaker 1

This brings our total outstanding authorization to approximately $9,500,000,000 Today, we announced our 2022 capital spending outlook. We expect Approximately $1,700,000,000 in capital expenditures with approximately 50% of the $1,300,000,000 growth capital site for our Martinez Refinery conversion. Total cost for the Martinez Refinery conversion is estimated at 1 point 2 platform. Approximately $300,000,000 has been spent to date, dollars 700,000,000 for 20.22 and $200,000,000 for 2023. This competitive capital cost is driven by the fact that Martinez' assets site.

Speaker 1

At Martinez, the project reached another milestone as the 60 day comment period for the environmental impact report concluded on December 17, 2021. We remain committed to progressing the conversion to a renewable fuel facility. Engineering is complete site, and we're ready to begin construction. Our plan is to have the 1st phase start up in the second half of twenty twenty two. We've already sourced Some advantaged feedstocks for the Martinez facility and are engaged in negotiations with multiple parties for the balance.

Speaker 1

Our strategy is multifaceted, including long term arrangements, joint ventures and alliances, all of which are common in the space. Site. A recent example of our success would be our joint venture with ADM. We're also leveraging existing capabilities that are currently supporting Dickinson to optimize between the two facilities. We remain confident in our progress and ability to secure feedstocks for Martinez.

Speaker 1

On Kenai, We have been working a sales process since we last communicated. We'll be back to you when we have additional details that we can share. In 2021, we progressed all three of our strategic initiatives and Slide 4 highlights this execution. Site. Under portfolio, we completed the Speedway sale receiving $17,200,000,000 of proceeds from that transaction and securing the 15 year fuel supply agreement with 711.

Speaker 1

Our Dickinson renewable diesel facility started up, slide, which provided $2,200,000,000 of contributions to MPC. As we look at cost reduction, What began as a $1,500,000,000 cost reduction initiative is being embraced by the organization and now a low cost Culture is becoming embedded in how we conduct our business. Finally, on commercial, while I've been reluctant to share too much, I wanted to highlight a few items that have commercial significance in our portfolio. In March of 2021, We started up the Beatrice pretreatment facility, which processes about 3,000 barrels a day of ADDvantage feedstock for the Dickinson Renewable Diesel Plant. In December, we closed on a joint venture with ADM, which will provide approximately 5,000 barrels a day of logistically advantaged feedstock for Dickinson when the new soybean crush plant comes online in 2023.

Speaker 1

And in January this year, we successfully started up site, our Cincinnati pretreatment facility, which will process about 2,000 barrels per day for our Dickinson Renewable Diesel Plant. We converted this facility from its original configuration as a biodiesel plant. Our team's execution on these slide. Three strategic priorities builds a foundation for continued value creation and we look forward to sharing updates each quarter as we continue to advance these initiatives. Slide.

Speaker 1

Shifting to Slide 5, we remain focused on challenging ourselves to leading in sustainable energy. We have 3 company wide targets on GHG, methane and freshwater intensity that many of our investors and stakeholders know well. In the coming weeks, slides. We look forward to providing an update on our progress against these targets and some of our accomplishments in 2021.

Speaker 2

Site. At this point, I'd

Speaker 1

like to turn the call over to Mary Anne to review the Q4 results.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Mike. Slide 6 provides a summary of our Q4 financial results. This morning, we reported earnings per share of 1.27 slide and adjusted earnings per share of $1.30 Adjusted earnings exclude $132,000,000 of pre tax charges related to make whole premiums for the $2,100,000,000 in senior notes we redeemed in December. Page. Additionally, the adjustments include an incremental $112,000,000 of tax expense, which adjusts all results to a 24% tax rate.

Speaker 3

Beginning with our Q1 2022 results, we will be reporting our effective tax rate on an actual basis and will no longer adjust our actual results to a 24% tax rate. Adjusted EBITDA was $2,800,000,000 for the quarter, which is approximately $400,000,000 higher from the prior quarter. Website. Finally, during the quarter, we returned $354,000,000 to shareholders through dividend payments and approximately $2,700,000,000 in share repurchases. In the 3 months since our last earnings call, page.

Speaker 3

We have repurchased approximately $3,000,000,000 of shares. Slide 7 illustrates the progress we have made towards lowering our cost structure over the past 2 years. As we think about our strategy on cost structure, I want to emphasize a few things. We will never compromise the safety of employees or the integrity of our assets. And we are committed to ensure the current cost reductions are sustainable even during periods of general cost pressures.

Speaker 3

Website. Since the beginning of 2020, we have been able to maintain roughly $1,500,000,000 of cost reductions that have been taken out of the company's total cost. Slide, while we were able to finish 2021 with a full year operating cost per barrel that was $5 Additionally, midstream was reduced by $400,000,000 and corporate cost by about $100,000,000 However, Regardless of the margin environment, our EBITDA is directly improved by this $1,500,000,000 This improvement is expected to make the company more resilient in future down cycles, while having more bottom line profitability and up cycles. Turning to Slide 8, slide. We would like to highlight our financial priorities for 2022.

Speaker 3

1st, sustaining capital as we remain steadfast in our commitment to safely operate our assets, site to protect the health and safety of our employees and support the communities in which we operate. 2nd, we're committed to the dividend. Webcast. As we continue to purchase shares, we will reduce the share count and increase the potential of returnable cash flow. 3rd, we continue to believe this is both a return on and return of capital business and we will continue to invest capital where we believe there are attractive returns.

Speaker 3

Slide. In traditional refining, we're focused on investments that are resilient and reduce cost. In renewables, so it can be used to meaningfully return capital to shareholders. In order to successfully execute the strategies guided by these priorities, site. MPC needs a strong balance sheet as a foundation.

Speaker 3

We continue to manage our balance sheet to an investment grade credit profile. Site. Moving to another key focus area, Slide 9 highlights our focus on strict capital discipline. Today, we announced our 2022 capital outlook for MPC. MPC's 2022 capital investment plan totals approximately $1,700,000,000 As we continue to focus on strict capital discipline, Our overall spend remains approximately 30% below 20 19 spending levels.

Speaker 3

Sustaining capital is similarly 20% of capital spend, underpinning our commitment to safety and environmental performance. Of the remaining 80% for growth, site. Approximately 50% of this $1,300,000,000 supports the conversion of Martinez into a renewable fuels facility. Website. The remainder of the growth capital is for other projects already underway.

Speaker 3

At our refineries, the growth capital is primarily for projects that enhance returns at MPC's large still assets with a focus on completing Galveston Bay's star project as well as smaller projects at Garyville in Los Angeles. Going forward, We expect growth capital will continue to have a significant portion for renewables and projects that will help us reduce future operating costs. Slide 10 shows the reconciliation from net income to adjusted EBITDA as well as the sequential change in adjusted EBITDA from the Q3 2021 to Q4 2021. Adjusted EBITDA was higher quarter over quarter, driven primarily by a $354,000,000 increase from Refining and Marketing. Slide.

Speaker 3

The adjustment column reflects $132,000,000 of pre tax charges for make whole premiums for debt redemption during the quarter, slide, which have also been excluded from the interest column. Moving to our segment results, Slide 11 provides an overview of our Refining and Marketing segment. Slide. The business reported continued improvement from last quarter with adjusted EBITDA of $1,500,000,000 4th quarter EBITDA increased $354,000,000 when compared to the Q3 of 2021. The increase was driven primarily by higher refining margins in the U.

Speaker 3

S. Gulf Coast and West Coast regions. Section increased by 14%, recovering from storm related downtime last quarter and solids margin per barrel increased 31% site due to higher export, sales and higher sales of light product inventory. The West Coast margin per barrel increased 40% associated with increased demand and refinery outages. Utilization was 94% for the quarter, slightly improved from the 3rd quarter.

Speaker 3

Slide. The higher Gulf Coast throughput was offset by lower throughput in the Mid Con for planned turnaround activity. Operating expenses were higher in the 4th quarter, primarily due to higher natural gas prices. There was also higher routine maintenance and planned project expense. Slide.

Speaker 3

Additionally, we saw natural gas prices soften during the quarter, coming off highs in the $5 to $6 range and ending in the $3 to $4 range. Slide 12 shows the change in our midstream EBITDA versus the Q3 of 2021. Our midstream segment continues to demonstrate earnings resiliency and stability with consistent results from the previous quarter. Slide 13 presents the elements of change in our consolidated cash position for the 4th quarter. Site.

Speaker 3

Operating cash flow was approximately $2,000,000,000 in the quarter. This excludes changes in working capital and also excludes the cash we received for our CARES tax refund in the quarter, which was approximately $1,600,000,000 source of cash and is included in the income tax bar of the chart. Working capital was an approximate $1,300,000,000 source of cash this quarter, driven primarily by reduction in crude and product inventory. As we announced on last quarter's call, MPC redeemed $2,100,000,000 in senior notes in December. Website.

Speaker 3

Under income taxes, we received approximately $1,600,000,000 of our CARES tax refund in the 4th quarter. We also used about $300,000,000 to set against our Speedway tax obligation. There is about $60,000,000 of the refund remaining, which we expect in the first half of twenty twenty two. Slide. We paid approximately $1,200,000,000 for our Speedway income tax obligation.

Speaker 3

All that remains is about $50,000,000 of state and local taxes. With respect to capital return during the quarter, MPC returned $354,000,000 to shareholders through our dividend and repurchased approximately $2,700,000,000 worth of shares. At the end of the quarter, NPC had approximately $10,800,000,000 in cash and short term investments. Slide 14 provides our capital investment plan for 2022, which reflects with our continuing focus on strict capital discipline. MPC's investment plan, excluding MPLX, totals approximately $1,700,000,000 slide.

Speaker 3

The plan includes $1,600,000,000 for Refining and Marketing segment, of which approximately $300,000,000 or roughly 20 percent is related to maintenance and regulatory compliance spending. Our growth capital plan is approximately $1,300,000,000 split between renewables and ongoing projects. Within renewable spending, the majority is allocated for the Martinez conversion. Site. Ongoing projects in our refining and marketing segment will enhance the capability of our refining assets, particularly in the Gulf Coast and also support our focus on growing the value recognized from our Marathon and Arco marketing brands.

Speaker 3

Also included is approximately $100,000,000 of corporate spending to support activities we believe will enhance our ability to lower future costs and capture commercial value. This morning, MPLX also announced their 2022 capital investment plan of $900,000,000 Their plan includes approximately $700,000,000 of growth capital, $140,000,000 of maintenance capital $60,000,000 for the repayment of their share of the Bakken Pipeline joint venture's debt due in 2022. On Slide 15, we review our progress on our return of capital. Since our last earnings call at The beginning of November, we have repurchased approximately $3,000,000,000 of company shares. This puts us at approximately 55% complete page on our initial $10,000,000,000 repurchase program commitment, leaving approximately $4,500,000,000 remaining.

Speaker 3

Slide. We remain committed to complete the $10,000,000,000 program by the end of 2022 and as we are ahead of pace given our recent repurchases could foresee completion sooner than initially planned. As part of our long term commitment to return capital, we announced an incremental $5,000,000,000 share repurchase authorization today, increasing our recent repurchase authorizations to 15,000,000,000 We plan to continue using open market repurchase programs, although all of the programs we have previously discussed remain available to us to complete our commitment. Slides. We intend to use programs that allow us to buy on an ongoing basis, and we will provide updates on the progress during our earnings call.

Speaker 3

As we have said many times, we believe a strong balance sheet is essential to being successful in a competitive commodity business. It's the foundation allowing us to execute our strategy. Slide 16, highlights some of the key points about our balance sheet. MPC ended the year with approximately $10,800,000,000 of cash since short term investments. But longer term, we believe that we will need to maintain about $1,000,000,000 of cash on the balance sheet.

Speaker 3

Additionally, We will always ensure that we have enough liquidity to endure market fluctuations. Currently, we have a $5,000,000,000 bank revolver that is undrawn. We continue to manage our balance sheet to an investment grade profile. At year end, MPC's gross debt to capital ratio is 21% and our long term growth debt to capital target is approximately 30%. As we continue to execute our share repurchase program, we will see that ratio increase.

Speaker 3

Slide. After the recent redemption in December, our current structural debt is approximately $6,500,000,000 and we do not have any maturities until 2024. Turning to guidance, Slide 17, we provide our first quarterly outlook. Site. We expect total throughput volumes of roughly 2,900,000 barrels per day.

Speaker 3

Planned turnaround costs are projected to be approximately $155,000,000 in the Q1. The majority of the activity will be in the Gulf Coast region. Slide. Our 2022 planned turnaround activity is back half weighted this year. Total operating Costs are projected to be $5.10 per barrel for the quarter.

Speaker 3

Distribution costs are expected to be approximately $1,300,000,000 for the quarter. Site. Corporate costs are expected to be $170,000,000 With that, let me turn the call back over to Christina.

Operator

Thanks, Mary Anne. As we open the call for your questions as a courtesy to all participants, we ask that you limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. If time permits, we'll re prompt for additional questions. And with that operator, we'll open it to questions.

Speaker 4

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. Session. Our first question comes from Doug Leggate with Bank of America. Your line is open.

Speaker 5

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Mike, Marianne, I think this is the first time we've spoken, so Happy New Year. Great start to the year with your earnings, but I got a couple of questions, if I may. The first one, Maryann, is maybe for you on the dividend policy going forward.

Speaker 5

And I guess the way I want to frame the question is, when you're done with your buybacks, the absolute dividend burden It's going to be quite a bit lower than it is today and quite a bit lower than distribution you get from MPLX, your share. So what are you thinking with the yield now down around 3%, what are you thinking in terms of the appropriate Payout ratio, if you like, or dividend policy going forward. How should we think of that evolving?

Speaker 3

Yes. Good morning, Doug. So maybe a couple of things. First, as you've seen from the capital framework that we've been sharing this morning, the dividend obviously remains an important piece of the capital allocation strategy. G.

Speaker 3

As you look, you're right. As we continue to complete our capital program, share repurchase program, The amount of capital that's allocated towards the dividend obviously will be declining. We think that's somewhere if you look at the current dividend versus where it's been, that's somewhere in a range of $200,000,000 $300,000,000 right now. We continue to think that share repurchase in the short term is an appropriate allocation of that. As we get to what we would consider to be a capital structure in a more normal environment, meaning we complete that share repurchase.

Speaker 3

We'll continue to evaluate the timing of any dividend change. But again, when you look at the difference in that dividend payment, we certainly think that we're providing that allocation in appropriate manner.

Speaker 1

Doug, it's Mike. Let me just add a little bit to Maher's comments. One of the things that I think maybe getting misconstrued is we are still committed to the dividend, as Maher just said. However, we're in a little bit of a different situation than normal operating cash flow. I mean, we're sitting with about $11,000,000,000 on the balance sheet And a large return program.

Speaker 1

And as you just saw, we did about $3,000,000,000 since the last call. So As far as order of magnitude, we're committed to returning capital. But right now, the size of the share repurchase relative to The dividend is just out of proportion until we get to a more normal balance sheet. So I don't want people to think we're not committed to the dividend. Site.

Speaker 1

We are going to evaluate it, as Maher just said. But right now, we're putting a lot of the effort in the return into the buyback program. Hope that helps.

Speaker 5

It does. It's just that you've got a lot of headroom to do all of the above, I guess. And I just was curious given the share price, the yield is now back at Sub average level, I guess, you could say. So it seems like there's a lot of headroom there, but thank you for that. My follow-up is maybe a little bit of Good question.

Speaker 5

And I don't know if Ray is on, but or if one of you guys wants to try this. But what I'm really interested in is, We saw some structural changes 20 years ago that reset the mid cycle refining Gas between the U. S. And Europe and the structural advantage that puts on U. S.

Speaker 5

Refiners. And I'm wondering if you've Given any thought to that in terms of whether you believe that if what we're seeing in Europe, let's say, or internationally currently Could be another structural tailwind for realized refining margins for U. S. Refiners and Markelon specifically.

Speaker 1

Doug, it's Mike. Let me I'm going to punt that over to Brian on products and Rick on crude to give you a little bit of color. It's a good question. Obviously, that dynamic is occurring in Europe. So why don't you start, Brian?

Speaker 6

Yes, sure. Doug, good morning. This is Brian. Great question. So I think the short answer is too early to tell, but I think you're on to it.

Speaker 6

Mary Anne mentioned in her prepared comments The volatility we've seen in natural gas over the last several months, we've gone from $3 gas to $6 down to $4 now we're peaking back up to $5 Directionally, yes, very supportive relative to the Chief Natural Gas position we have that we believe is certainly sustainable over the long term in the U. S. But ultimately, these are long term decisions for anybody that has that exposure overseas to higher natural gas prices. But yes, directionally, we do see it as supportive. It's just a little bit too early to tell.

Speaker 6

But if we stay in this $5 to $6 gas range, it will absolutely put pressure on those that are have that exposure and we'll look for upside. But it's one of many variables. I'm

Speaker 5

curious, have you seen any shift in imports coming from Europe as a consequence of that cost disadvantage? And I'll leave it there. Thank you.

Speaker 6

Yes. No, from an import perspective, not yet. I mean, that's one thing that we're looking at both the fundamental balance in the Atlantic Basin, looking at opportunities to actually export into Europe. But the ARBs has been pretty stable. No big immediate changes here in the short term, but we're watching it very closely.

Speaker 5

Thanks for taking my question.

Speaker 7

Hey, Doug, it's Rick. I'll just add on a few more comments. With Europe at $30 an MMBtu or thereabouts, there's no doubt a structural advantage. But with that being said, What we're seeing right now out of Europe is just slight run cuts at best because their margins are covering their higher OpEx costs. So we haven't seen the impact substantially yet.

Speaker 7

If it continues, I think that's another story. So as Brian said, it's call. Still a little bit too early to tell. But then I'll also leave you with a couple of wildcards that we're watching closely, which could exasperate it as well In terms of nat gas costs, it's the Russian Ukraine conflict, which we're all well aware of. And then ultimately, it's Nord Stream 2 and what is the result that comes out of that.

Speaker 7

So a tailwind could get much better depending on how either one of these two Plays out. It's just a little bit too early, Doug.

Speaker 5

Got it. Thanks again, Faust.

Speaker 1

You're welcome, Doug.

Speaker 4

Thank you. Our next question will come from Prashant Rao with Citigroup. Your line is open.

Speaker 2

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. I wanted to switch to talking about Renewable Diesel a bit. First, on Martinez, could we dive in a little bit site. To the CapEx that you've outlined, specifically, what all is getting completed this year?

Speaker 2

And I guess related to that, Does that sort of tie into the utilization level we see for the guidance in the West Coast? And when you talk about back half weighted Turnarounds as well, does that is that sort of impacting that too? And I have a follow-up. Thanks.

Speaker 1

Ray, can you give a Martinez update? Yes, sure.

Speaker 8

Thanks for that question. And if I start talking about Martinez and before I get into the CapEx, I I kind of want to talk about where we're at with the project in regards to permitting. And so, as we covered before, We completed the public comment period in December. And right now, over the last month and a half, we've been working really hard with the Contra Costa County to address all questions and get the permit to the finish line. And so we're really targeting the end of Q1 to have the CEQA permit done and be ready to put shovels in the ground.

Speaker 8

And with that, what I want to emphasize We're absolutely ready to do that. Our engineering is complete for the first phase. It's nearly complete for the back few phases. We have the equipment on-site. We have the pipe.

Speaker 8

We have the pilings. We have the vessels that we need to do this project. So we're ready from that standpoint. Now as far as what's in the project, I've talked a lot over the past couple of calls about why Martinez makes sense. And I've talked about 3 hydro processing units, 2 hydrogen plants.

Speaker 8

I've talked about the cogen power generation on-site. As far as what we're spending the money on, What I want to emphasize is a couple of key things in that regard. One is pretreatment. This project is really driven by we want to be able to process all the renewable feedstocks and we want to be able to pretreat them ourselves. So We've invested in pretreatment capabilities.

Speaker 8

We're really excited about the technology that we've chosen. We feel it is a Good technology that we're spending money on that will have a lower CapEx, have sustainability advantages, so we feel good about that. And then the other thing I want to emphasize is we're investing a lot in logistics. Why Martinez? Martinez has scale, Martinez has optionality.

Speaker 8

Site. And so we have optionality on truck, rail, pipe and water as far as bringing feedstocks in and products out. Just wanted to give a little bit of color on, hey, what we're spending money on, in 2022.

Speaker 2

Thank you. The follow-up I'm sorry, go ahead.

Speaker 1

Yes, Prashant, it's Mike. I just want to add a little bit more color to what Ray said. So If you back up, the way I've looked at this project from the beginning is, do we have competitive CapEx? Do we have competitive OpEx and logistics and ultimately feedstock to make it work. So Ray just talked a little bit about the CapEx and we finally have disclosed that number.

Speaker 1

Part of the reason I wanted to explain that we hadn't disclosed it up until this point is because we've been working the feedstock side of the business pretty detailed and that's still in progress. So hopefully, we'll give more updates as time goes by. But we're at a point as we've negotiated with a lot of different counterparties that we felt comfortable now that we can disclose the CapEx because that's been part of all the discussions and all the negotiations that have occurred on that side of the ledger. So I think us disclosing that now, Ray, trying to give you a little bit more feel for we put some CapEx in that we believe is going to give us lower operating expenses over time. And I think the whole puzzle is kind of coming together is the way we thought of the project.

Speaker 1

Competitive CapEx, competitive OpEx, site. Good logistics, as Ray just mentioned. And then like I said, we're still working that feedstock side, but we're pretty far along And what we're trying to accomplish there.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Mike. That's super helpful. And I wanted to pick up on that feedstock side and specifically the pretreatment that you highlighted. You highlighted Beatrice that came up last year. You've got the Cincinnati project now.

Speaker 2

Pretreatment is a big part of Martina, it sounds like. So kind of a 2 parter. 1 is just more broad big picture. We're seeing a world right now where the differentials between feedstocks are trying to are getting tighter. Some of that is Could be temporary based upon timing of projects coming online and logistical issues, but some of it might be related to some shifts going on.

Speaker 2

And I think that's a bit of a debate shift going on and reflecting CI scores. So I guess this is sort of a bigger philosophical question is The value of pretreatment or how do you pivot on what your pretreatment do, what you want to scope out. As you think about how feedstock differentials might change As the supply ramp globally, but specifically within the U. S. Goes up, and I'll leave it there.

Speaker 2

Thanks.

Speaker 1

Yes. Prashant, it's Mike. I'll start off and then I'll let Brian or Ray jump in if they'd like to. One of the things people have asked me about, Can you talk a little bit about commercial stuff? And I've tried not to go into a lot of detail there.

Speaker 1

But the point you're making is, It's got a little bit of portfolio, a little bit of commercial side to it. Long term, I think the point you're making is markets equilibrate And you'll see some competitiveness, and we agree with that. It's part of the reason that we stress test Martinez. Side. But in the short term, we've got Dickinson up and running and you got to be fast in this business.

Speaker 1

You got to be quick. And I think what you're seeing through the team effort here because it's part portfolio and it's part commercial was to get this Beatrice plant up and running, get 3,000 barrels a day Of really advantaged feedstock there, get a couple of 1,000 barrels a day of converting the biodiesel plant. So it's partly the portfolio or the engineering team working with Commercial team, to your point, right at the moment, those feedstocks are advantaged and getting the pretreated. Long term, you're right, the competitiveness will change over time. There'll be more weak equilibrium.

Speaker 1

But at the same time, as Ray talked about, we felt Having full pretreatment at Martinez was still going to be a good thing for us in the long term. And the technology that we picked there, so there's a lot of important thoughts from an engineering and technical side that also married to what we want to try and achieve commercially. And like I said, hopefully, we'll be able to give you a little bit more color on feedstock as as time goes by, but we felt it was a good enough time to explain what the CapEx number is and how we're feeling about it.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Bechtel. That's super helpful. Appreciate the time, guys. And I'll turn it over.

Speaker 1

You're welcome, Prashant.

Speaker 4

Thank you. Our next question will come from Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Speaker 9

Good morning, Mike, team. Two questions for me. The first one is on refining. Capture rate, as you show on Slide 22, was very strong, 116% this quarter. And I recognize Capture rates are very hard metrics to try to calibrate, but on Slide 23, you help us Think through some things like other margins.

Speaker 9

Mike, I guess the question for you is, how much of this do you think is a carry forward and business and getting your costs down starting to show up in that capture rate number.

Speaker 3

Hey, Neil, it's Mary Anne. Let me try to give you some color there and then I'll pass it back to Mike. So appreciate the comments. In the quarter, as you saw about 116% capture overall, we had a couple of things happening in the quarter. 1, in general, inventory was a tailwind for us this quarter.

Speaker 3

We have inventory impacts period to period. You can actually look at the Q3 as an example of that capture was about percent. We benefited from crude timing impacts from running some advantage 3rd quarter inventories purchased and we ran that in the Q4, and we had some seasonally strong marketing margins. So historically, I think we have been talking about baseline for our refining capture in and about a range of 95%. And while there's volatility in the quarter, quarter to quarter, We're looking right now, we think just based on this commercial execution that we've been talking about, that our baseline is more like 100%.

Speaker 3

I'll make a couple of comments and then again I'll pass it on to Mike, just something specific in the quarter. We did benefit in the 4th quarter from an adjustment $62,000,000 for the full year adjustment for the 2021 RINs. That's pretty ratable quarter by quarter. So one fourth of that belongs in the quarter. And we also did see a benefit of about $39,000,000 for the Dickinson LCFS adjustment for lower CI in the quarter.

Speaker 3

So there are a few things that benefited the quarter overall, and I'll pass it back to Mike.

Speaker 1

Yes, Neal, I'm going to add, but it looks like Brian wants to jump in with a comment, and then I'll finish up.

Speaker 6

Yes, Neil, thanks for the question. This is Brian. So just commercially, we are hyper focused on optimization and improvement. I think We've been pretty transparent and clear about that as one of our 3 key strategic initiatives. So just a bit of color.

Speaker 6

The Gulf Coast was an area here over the last quarter where We saw some nice marked improvements in our operations commercially that helped to drive a better capture. Really fundamentally, what's Helping with that for us in our business is better alignment of the team, by getting the right resources and getting them focused in the right areas and aligned efficiently. And a couple of examples in the Gulf Coast, just highlighting that as an example, it's really helping us drive our marketing book and our growth, in and along the Gulf Coast. And And then our export expansion as well. We've been really focused on our expansion of our export book.

Speaker 6

And specific to our export book, we're really focused on more delivered cargoes. So we're moving further down the value chain, higher margin capture.

Speaker 1

So we've had

Speaker 6

a lot of success in growing that line of our business. And then lastly, we did take in a position in the Caribbean in the Q4 that allows us to optimize supply both internationally and domestically, particularly into Florida, as well as a developing lending program in and along the Caribbean. So just wanted to provide some color, some examples of things that we're doing to help to advance our commercial initiatives.

Speaker 1

And Neal, it's Mike. One of the things, happy with the progress that Brian and the team are making in some of those areas. But I do want to stay on the record that I'm not a big fan of this metric. I've said that many, many times. And the main reason is because there's other things that can drive the metric in different directions.

Speaker 1

The spread between light products and heavy products is the most dominant feature in it. And I just want to remind people that you can have a low capture rate and Still making a lot of money or you could have a high capture rate and not be making as much. So you got to be a little careful or you got to dig into the details because the metric itself You know, has some flaws. Now with that said, am I glad that we're making incremental progress? Sure.

Speaker 1

I think, all things being equal, We want to see the number up higher than not. But I just keep want to caution you, Christina is tired of me saying this to her all the time, that there's other factors that influence that metric that can mislead or misalign some of the activity that's going on. Side. But overall, as Maher said and Brian said, good things happen should drive that in the right direction.

Speaker 8

But I just want to

Speaker 1

keep putting that caution out. I'm still challenging Christine and our team to come up with a better way to do it. We haven't come up with that yet, but we're working on it because I think we may be able It is what it is and I just wanted to make sure I had that caution on it.

Speaker 9

It's been clear about that and a lot of good perspective there. The follow-up is back on Tina, so thanks for the $1,200,000,000 Is there a way to tie that into an EBITDA number either with or without the blenders tax credit or is it Still too early for you guys to come out there with an EBITDA number that we can then ultimately tie back into returns?

Speaker 1

Yes, Neal, it's a good question. It is still a little early. What I was saying earlier is we're still actively engaged in some feedstock discussions. So we can't go to that disclosure. We got to the point with our discussions that capital is now very open with everybody, so we thought we could disclose it.

Speaker 1

Page. So that's where we are in the process. As you saw in our prepared remarks, we have secured some feedstock. We're still in some discussions, But still a little premature, but we were thinking that we could at least put the capital out there and that would give some color So

Speaker 2

some of

Speaker 1

the questions that people have been asking us, and I know it's taken a little bit of time, but part of it is we couldn't disclose it while we were still Some level of those negotiations. Now that we're past that, we can disclose that piece, but we still have some activity going on. You're welcome, Neil.

Speaker 4

Our next question will come from Roger Read with Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

Speaker 10

Yes. Thanks. Good morning and congratulations on the quarter. Maybe to kind of take up where Part of the answer to Neil's question left off, you made the comment, Mike, about Catcher doesn't tell the whole story. And Obviously, one of the big things is the reduction in costs.

Speaker 10

So as we look at the Conversion of Martinez, the closure of Gala, we think about that in terms of the impact on costs and we think about that as an impact on Capture, what else should we be thinking about is going on? And is there any possibility you can quantify slides across those items to help us understand what we ought to consider as sustainable and what we ought to consider as Maybe just a product of current market environment.

Speaker 1

Hey, Roger, it's a good question. What I'm trying to say is the metric can be driven by different factors other than what we're doing and things we have control of. Brian was mentioning some of the things that we have control of that we think are increasing our commercial capture. What I was trying to say, sometimes the spreads themselves can drive that metric in a different direction. So the only thing I was trying to say is The metric itself has some good parts to it.

Speaker 1

It has some bad parts to it. And you usually have to drill down to really understand what's happening. Now Like I just said, I'm happy with the commercial team making progress for apples to apples. We want to see that number higher. But I just want to continue to caution people that there's some flaws in the metric or some other things that drive it, just like Meyer said in her remarks.

Speaker 1

So part of like you said, cost and everything that we're doing on that side is still a high focus. We have a lot of focus, as Brian said, on the commercial side of the business. Trying to be a little reluctant to give a lot of details in that regard because of the competitive nature of it, But also listening to people saying, hey, can you give me some color what's going on there? So we tried to pick a few examples That we could give you a little bit of the way we're thinking about it and hoping it helps, but I'll leave it there.

Speaker 3

Site. One other small add to make maybe as you're thinking about that cost and sustainability, the sustainability of the cost reductions, Keep in mind that as we are in the middle of this Martinez conversion, there are current operating costs included in that capture rate that you're seeing now. So those operating costs to complete the conversion, the day to day operating costs are already embedded in that capture rate as you're seeing it today.

Speaker 10

Okay. Yes, that's so well, I'll say the follow-up on that for another time. I guess the other question I had on the commercial side, obviously, It's been a focus of the company. You had a change in leadership there. And I was just curious how you see the commercial ops going forward and how that should work its way out.

Speaker 1

Yes, Roger, it's Mike. I'll take that again. I would say in general, you're referring to that we made a change at the CCO level. I do want to say, Brian website. So I thought a change was necessary.

Speaker 1

But I don't want to diminish the progress that the team has made. I don't want to diminish Rick and Brian who are on the call here today and their teams are, I love Brian's word, hyper focused. I was glad to hear that. We think there is opportunity for us in this area. And like I said, we had a little bit of philosophical and expectation differences that I just thought it was warranted to make a change rather than try and get that back on track.

Speaker 1

It was warranted to make a change. But I'm happy with the progress that's been occurring. I think we have clear line of sight of some other opportunities for us. Site. I know we frustrate people by not giving a lot of detail there, but hopefully you'll just continue to see it in results and we'll try to think of ways and opportunities that we can explain some things that will help you guys understand the business from our perspective a little better.

Speaker 10

No, I appreciate that. And website. Yes, don't worry about it. We'll make sure to keep you frustrated from questions coming from the sell side.

Speaker 1

I appreciate that, Roger. Thank you.

Speaker 4

Thank you. Our next question comes from Manav Gupta with Credit Suisse. Your line is open.

Speaker 11

Mike and team, my question is a little bit around the CapEx of Martinus. It's about 1.2. If my math is right, that's putting you about at $1.6 or $1.65 a gallon With a very good pretreat and what we are generally seeing out there is people who are trying to build really high class pretreats are hitting that cost of about $325,000,000 to $350,000,000 So if you can talk about your comfort level with that CapEx, What is allowing you to do it at about 50% of what others are doing and what role has already operations at Dickinson where You are already making RD, what are the learnings from there, which are basically kind of I think allowing you to bring the facility on at a highly discounted CapEx per gallon basis.

Speaker 8

Hey Manav, this is Ray. Let me take another shot at talking about Martinez and Your math is right. It's about $1.60 a capacity gallon for that, which we feel good about website compared to the industry and why we are excited about this project. As far as why that's the case, it gets back to the toolkit that's already sitting there at Martinez. 3 hydro crackers, hydro treaters, 2 hydrogen plants and cogen facility.

Speaker 8

So what we're investing, the big thing that's new is investing in the pretreat system. The rest that we're doing is we're investing a lot in connectivity, piping to get all those units to go to the right places and logistics from that standpoint. So site. Largely, the reconfiguring of Martinez allowed us to have a very capital efficient project.

Speaker 1

Hey Manav, it's Mike. I just want to reemphasize something that's important and give Ray and his team some credit for. I mean, at the end of the day, we spend a lot of time thinking about this CapEx. And ultimately, to your point, it's a good number, But we actually had a lower capital case that we thought would have a higher operating expense, as Ray mentioned. And we chose to spend a little more capital.

Speaker 1

So Trying to bring a little more commerciality into the decision to assist the technical side of it, I think has played out really well for us. Ray hasn't talked a lot about it, but the technology that we picked there was very important. And offline, we can talk to you a little bit about that. That's a very important part of how this project has played itself out, choosing to go a little higher on CapEx even though it's a pretty good rate just so that we get lower OpEx. Site.

Speaker 1

It was an important part of the discussion. The sustainability of the project and the way we set up that part of the project, we're pretty happy about. Yes. I'll give Ray and his team connected to the commercial side of it. That's the important part that we're trying to emphasize today that It's not just engineers picking X and there's a connectivity that has to occur between those that makes the project better.

Speaker 1

So Even in this example, and I know you're thinking, hey, it's a good number. We actually had a case that was a lower number, higher OpEx, site. And we went with this case because we thought it was a better long term to have that OpEx lower. And like I said, the technology and the sustainability and the carbon output of it, I think it's turned out to be really good. So we're happy to disclose it and offline we can give a little bit more color around some of those details.

Speaker 11

Perfect. And Mike, my follow-up question obviously here is, when you took over, the focus kind of changed internally website. Optimization, cost cuts and everything is falling in place. I mean, you're almost generating $1,000,000,000 post dividend free cash on a quarterly basis. So I'm just trying to understand when you start looking at this kind of cash level build up site.

Speaker 11

Even with your buybacks, like what's the like what is the optimum debt level? Or is this a dry powder where you could actually go out and make a strategic acquisition at some point given the way the cash is building on the balance sheet now.

Speaker 1

So I'll let Meyer talk about the balance sheet and debt, obviously an important part. But I'll give you a big picture look is Part of the way we looked at this business is we want all of our assets to generate free cash. So you're pointing out something that we've been working on over the last couple of years. You make portfolio adjustments, you adjust commercial activity, do all those things so that you end up in a position where we like Where we are right now, and it was mentioned earlier, we haven't abandoned the dividend. We've kind of put that a little on hold as we return a lot of capital via share buybacks, but I'm still a big believer in you got to be in this position, so you got to put the business in this position so that you can then have really good discussions about return of capital and return on capital.

Speaker 1

We do want to grow the business. We've been very selective in where we're going to put some of that money and we'll continue to be that way. And when we are selective, we'll have cash that we'll return to shareholders. When we are selective and we think we have a good investment, we're going to put it there And we're going to continue to challenge all of our teams to tie the technical side of this business to the commercial side of this business such that at the end of the day, We put ourselves in a position where we have the choices that you're talking about. So we have some thoughts going forward.

Speaker 1

I don't want to get ahead of ourselves. Site. But at the same time, I'm happy that the team has embraced the concept, the philosophical concept of putting ourselves in a position where site. All assets contribute free cash. We'll generate that.

Speaker 1

As you know, I've said many, many times, we don't control the market. So We're a price taker in a large part of refining, so that will make some of our business volatile. And then we want to have the balance sheet in a good position as well. So I don't know if Meryl wants and then make some good decisions on what's the best way to create value.

Speaker 3

It's Mary Anne. I'll just add maybe a few additional comments. Site. We've been looking over the last several quarters and talking about the balance sheet. We continue to say that, that investment grade profile for us is critically important.

Speaker 3

That means we need to stay in and around growth debt to capital range of about 30%. We're below that as I shared with you today. But keep in mind, we've got $9,500,000,000 of share repurchase remaining and all other things being consistent as we continue to do that share repurchase, right? We'll see that ratio improve. We've done quite a bit of to ensure we've got the right liquidity.

Speaker 3

We'll sit with $1,000,000,000 on the balance sheet, which is somewhat lower than we had initially contemplated a few folders ago. We think that's certainly a positive step. Mike already mentioned returning to the more, I'll site, normal capital structure. We have outlined our capital priorities, obviously, sustaining capital, the dividend being important, and then we'll use share repurchase opportunistically to return that capital as we see the outlook for 2020. Hope that helps.

Speaker 11

Thank you for taking my questions.

Speaker 1

You're welcome.

Speaker 4

Our next question will come from Phil Gresh with JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Speaker 12

Yes. Hi, good morning. Site. First question, just one clarification on Neil's question around the RVO piece. Marianne, I think you said $62,000,000 per quarter.

Speaker 12

So would I multiply that by 4 in terms of what showed up in the 4th quarter specifically? And then level would be per year and or if you're willing to comment, just if you have an annual number that we can be thinking about. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yes, sure, of course. So let me be clear, the $62,000,000 that I referred to is the annual adjustment for 2021 compliance year. So the $62,000,000 is total adjustment or reduction, if you will, to our obligation for all of 2021. If you think about the impact still not on the capture rate in the quarter. So we were about 116, that's about a 1.7 change in the capture rate, site, including all 62.

Speaker 3

My comment on a quarterly basis was just to say that it's fairly ratable. So had we had that RVO obligation at the beginning of the year, You would have saw roughly a $15,000,000 benefit to the prior quarters. That's all that I was trying to say. Hope that answers that question. The second one is really around turnaround.

Speaker 3

And I guess what we would say is, yes, absolutely, back half of the year, we see a greater weighting, if you will, toward our turnaround expenses. We see this year, meaning 2022, slightly higher than a normal year. We tend to think normal is in the range of $600,000,000 to $700,000,000 as you saw from what we had this year. So we do expect that to be a higher total for 2022. I'll let Mike add any comments.

Speaker 1

No, I don't have anything to add, Phil.

Speaker 12

Okay, great. No, that's very helpful and thank you for that clarification. My second one, just on the buybacks. Obviously, the pace in 4Q has essentially tripled from the 2Q, 3Q run rate and with the increase in the authorization, recognizing it doesn't have a specific End date, is there any reason to think that the new run rate that you've been doing is not Achievable or doable on a go forward basis or anything in particular about the Q4 that you would say is non repeatable?

Speaker 3

Website. It's Mary Anne. I'd say, look, we'll look at liquidity. We certainly, as you know, committed when we were on our Q3 earnings call to changing the cadence, and hopefully that we've demonstrated our ability to do so in the Q3, so from our Q3 performance. We'll absolutely look at liquidity.

Speaker 3

And as I said, we remain committed to getting that done in 2022. And given the pace that we've achieved. We're likely to be able to get that done sooner. And again, I'm talking about the $10,000,000,000 initial commitment.

Speaker 12

Right. Okay. Thank you.

Speaker 4

Thank you. And we do have time for just one more question. Our last question will come from Paul Cheng with Scotiabank.

Speaker 13

Hey, guys. Good morning. Good morning, Paul. Two questions. I think one is just Maybe a bit of the housekeeping one to follow-up to Mary Anne's answer to Neil earlier.

Speaker 13

You talked about the RVO adjustment benefit and LCFS adjustment. Can you give us What is the benefit from the crew timing benefit and also the inventory benefit By region. So that's just a quick follow-up here. Second question is for my from a commercial operation. I mean, If we look back into your earlier in your career in XenoCo 20 somewhat years ago, I mean, that's your gig.

Speaker 13

And when you're looking at that, in the longer term, should we look at that operation Primary to facilitate the rest of the refining and Audi operation and I mean, what do you envision that business really going to do? Site. And what have already accomplished and where you think is the biggest opportunity with the potential improvement or upside that you still and vision from that business over the next 1 or 2 years.

Speaker 1

So I'll start with your second part and I'll let Mero go back to the first part. So To answer your question, Paul, it's both. It's yes, it should be a separate profit center for us. Rick, Brian, the team are very committed to that. You heard some examples earlier.

Speaker 1

So that's a standalone. And then the other part of it is connectivity to the whole business, site. Just making sure the commercial and the portfolio side are totally in sync. So the answer is really both. You have to do both really, really well.

Speaker 1

Again, when I started this by saying portfolio, cost and commercial, they're all linked. And they all have an obligation across the supply chain. So that's one obligation and then they all have to do excellence in their own regard. So the commercial area needs to do Excellence in just the commercial area. Ray's team needs to do excellence.

Speaker 1

Like I was saying earlier about picking that technology at the end of the day, that's something that Goes across both and then has some excellence inside of it. So the answer the short answer to your question is both. Like I said earlier, I'm trying to give you some examples of how we're approaching it, trying not to go into too much detail, but just give you a little bit more of the philosophy. So hopefully that helps and then I'll let Mair talk on the first part.

Speaker 3

And Mike, can I just

Speaker 13

ask one question on that approach? Is your commercial operation going to be a centralized commercial operation or decentralized? In other words that Yes. The trade by refinery that is going to do on the fire or that day to day Adjustment in terms of the operation or that you have a centralized team to coordinate all the effort. Now which approach that you guys are taking?

Speaker 1

Yes. Again, the answer is both. We have part of our commercial team is dedicated The supply chain and what we're doing and then part of it is more entrepreneurial and trying to look at it in a little bit different regard. So I think both still the right answer.

Speaker 13

Got it. Thank you. Mary Anne, sorry.

Speaker 3

Yes. No worries at all. Yes, unfortunately, we really do not provide those inventory movements quarter to quarter on a regional basis. So, not disclosed and it's not actually something that we would typically share.

Speaker 13

Can I ask that on the appendix Page 22 on your presentation, you saw a capture impact of 5.97? We can identify based on the RVO and LCFS roughly 100. So the other 500. On the total sum, is that primarily driven by the favorable inventory impact and the crude timing? Or I mean, if not breakdown by region, can you share that what is the total system on those two benefits?

Speaker 3

Site. Paul, it's Mary Anne. Maybe we can take that offline and address all of your questions specifically. Would that be helpful?

Speaker 13

Yes, that would be great. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Sounds good.

Speaker 1

And Paul, the only thing that I would add is, again, watch quarterly results. There's always timing from Q3 into Q4 or Q4 into Q1. Some of that occurred here. And like I said, Mary can give you a little bit more offline, Christine and the team. But just be careful when you look at 1 quarter isolated.

Speaker 1

That tends to get you a little bit misaligned if there was activity across the quarters. So just keep that in mind when you guys have the discussion. All right, thanks very much.

Speaker 4

Website. Operator, are

Operator

you still there?

Speaker 4

Yes. That was all the time that we had for questions for today.

Operator

Perfect. Well, thank you so much for everyone for joining our call this afternoon. If you have any questions that you didn't get addressed on the call today, The Investor Relations team is available anytime. Please just reach out. Thank you again.

Speaker 4

Thank you.

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