Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Stock Forecast & Price Target

$441.88 +9.52 (+2.20%)

Closing price 03:58 PM Eastern

Extended Trading

$441.50 -0.38 (-0.09%)

As of 07:58 PM Eastern

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Marathon Petroleum - Analysts' Recommendations and Stock Price Forecast (2026)

Consensus Rating

Moderate Buy

Based on 17 Analyst Ratings

Sell
0

Hold
5

Buy
12

Based on 17 Wall Street analysts who have issued ratings for Marathon Petroleum in the last 12 months, the stock has a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy." Out of the 17 analysts, 5 have given a hold rating, 11 have given a buy rating, and 1 has given a strong buy rating for MPC.

Consensus Price Target

$370.38
-16.18% Downside

According to the 17 analysts' twelve-month price targets for Marathon Petroleum, the average price target is $370.38. The highest price target for MPC is $472.00, while the lowest price target for MPC is $210.00. The average price target represents a forecasted downside of -16.18% from the current price of $441.88.

MarketBeat calculates consensus analyst ratings for stocks using the most recent rating from each Wall Street analyst that has rated a stock within the last twelve months. Each analyst's rating is normalized to a standardized rating score of 1 (sell), 2 (hold), 3 (buy) or 4 (strong buy). Analyst consensus ratings scores are calculated using the mean average of the number of normalized sell, hold, buy and strong buy ratings from Wall Street analysts. Each stock's consensus analyst rating is derived from its calculated consensus ratings score (0 to .5 = Strong Sell, .5 to 1 = Sell, 1 to 1.5 = Reduce, 1.5 to 2.5 = Hold, 2.5 to 3.0 = Moderate Buy, 3.0 to 3.5 = Buy, >3.5 = Strong Buy). MarketBeat's consensus price targets are a mean average of the most recent available price targets set by each analyst that has set a price target for the stock in the last twelve months. MarketBeat's consensus ratings and consensus price targets may differ from those calculated by other firms due to differences in methodology and available data.

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MPC Analyst Ratings Over Time

Type	Current Forecast 10/7/25 to 10/7/26	1 Month Ago 9/7/25 to 9/7/26	3 Months Ago 7/9/25 to 7/9/26	1 Year Ago 10/7/24 to 10/7/25
Strong Buy	1 Strong Buy rating(s)	1 Strong Buy rating(s)	0 Strong Buy rating(s)	0 Strong Buy rating(s)
Buy	11 Buy rating(s)	12 Buy rating(s)	10 Buy rating(s)	8 Buy rating(s)
Hold	5 Hold rating(s)	4 Hold rating(s)	9 Hold rating(s)	9 Hold rating(s)
Sell	0 Sell rating(s)	0 Sell rating(s)	0 Sell rating(s)	0 Sell rating(s)
Consensus Price Target	$370.38	$322.44	$272.63	$196.29
Forecasted Upside	-16.18% Downside	-17.29% Downside	-3.82% Downside	2.57% Upside
Consensus Rating	Moderate Buy	Moderate Buy	Moderate Buy	Hold

MPC Analyst Recommendations By Month

The chart below shows how a company's ratings by analysts have changed over time. Each bar represents the previous year of ratings for that month. Within each bar, the sell ratings are shown in red, the hold ratings are shown in yellow, the buy ratings are shown in green, and the strong buy ratings are shown in dark green.

MPC Price Targets by Month

The chart below shows how a company's share price and consensus price target have changed over time. The dark blue line represents the company's actual price. The lighter blue line represents the stock's consensus price target. The even lighter blue range in the background of the two lines represents the low price target and the high price target for each stock.

Marathon Petroleum Stock vs. The Competition

Type	Marathon Petroleum	Energy Companies	Broader Market
Consensus Rating Score	2.76	2.44	2.52
Consensus Rating	Moderate Buy	Hold	Moderate Buy
Predicted Upside	-16.18% Downside	47.21% Upside	20.58% Upside
News Sentiment Rating	Positive News See Recent MPC News	Positive News	Neutral News

Recent Analyst Forecasts and Stock Ratings

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Date	Brokerage	Analyst	Action	Rating	Price Target	Report Date Upside/Downside
10/2/2026	Citigroup 4 of 5 stars	Vikram Bagri Not Rated	Reiterated Rating	Neutral
10/2/2026	Bank of America 4 of 5 stars	Doug Leggate 3 of 5 stars	Boost Target	Neutral	$410.00 ➝ $426.00	+1.43%
10/1/2026	UBS Group 4 of 5 stars	Manav Gupta 5 of 5 stars	Reiterated Rating	Buy
9/21/2026	Jefferies Financial Group Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the firm's recommendation accuracy rating	Lloyd Byrne Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the analyst's recommendation accuracy rating	Reiterated Rating	Buy ➝ Hold	$413.00	+2.74%
9/21/2026	The Goldman Sachs Group Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the firm's recommendation accuracy rating	Neil Mehta Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the analyst's recommendation accuracy rating	Boost Target	Buy	$376.00 ➝ $472.00	+11.42%
9/14/2026	Raymond James Financial Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the firm's recommendation accuracy rating	Justin Jenkins Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the analyst's recommendation accuracy rating	Boost Target	Outperform	$350.00 ➝ $445.00	+9.90%
9/14/2026	Morgan Stanley Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the firm's recommendation accuracy rating	Joe Laetsch Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the analyst's recommendation accuracy rating	Boost Target	Overweight	$265.00 ➝ $453.00	+11.59%
9/4/2026	Zacks Research Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the firm's recommendation accuracy rating		Upgrade	Hold ➝ Strong-Buy
9/3/2026	Piper Sandler Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the firm's recommendation accuracy rating	John Royall Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the analyst's recommendation accuracy rating	Boost Target	Overweight	$344.00 ➝ $462.00	+19.34%
9/1/2026	Wells Fargo & Company Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the firm's recommendation accuracy rating	Sam Margolin Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the analyst's recommendation accuracy rating	Boost Target	Overweight	$359.00 ➝ $400.00	+6.81%
Get the Latest News and Ratings for MPC and Related Stocks Enter your email address below to receive the latest news and analysts' ratings for Marathon Petroleum and its competitors with MarketBeat's FREE daily newsletter.
8/11/2026	Mizuho Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the firm's recommendation accuracy rating	Nitin Kumar Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the analyst's recommendation accuracy rating	Boost Target	Neutral	$284.00 ➝ $304.00	-4.64%
8/6/2026	Barclays Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the firm's recommendation accuracy rating	Theresa Chen Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the analyst's recommendation accuracy rating	Boost Target	Overweight	$289.00 ➝ $321.00	+7.91%
8/5/2026	Weiss Ratings Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the firm's recommendation accuracy rating		Upgrade	Hold (C+) ➝ Buy (B)
8/5/2026	Evercore Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the firm's recommendation accuracy rating		Set Target		$330.00	+7.78%
8/5/2026	TD Cowen Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the firm's recommendation accuracy rating	Jason Gabelman Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the analyst's recommendation accuracy rating	Boost Target	Buy	$357.00 ➝ $375.00	+19.83%
6/12/2026	BMO Capital Markets Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the firm's recommendation accuracy rating		Reiterated Rating	Outperform
5/6/2026	JPMorgan Chase & Co. Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the firm's recommendation accuracy rating		Boost Target		$235.00 ➝ $257.00	+6.98%
4/22/2026	Scotiabank Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the firm's recommendation accuracy rating	Betty Zhang Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the analyst's recommendation accuracy rating	Boost Target	Sector Outperform	$174.00 ➝ $210.00	-4.56%
7/28/2025	Dbs Bank Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the firm's recommendation accuracy rating		Upgrade	Moderate Buy
7/14/2025	Wolfe Research Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the firm's recommendation accuracy rating	Doug Leggate Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the analyst's recommendation accuracy rating	Downgrade	Outperform ➝ Peer Perform
2/4/2025	Tudor Pickering Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the firm's recommendation accuracy rating	M. Blair Subscribe to MarketBeat All Access for the analyst's recommendation accuracy rating	Upgrade	Strong Sell ➝ Hold

Analyst ratings data on MarketBeat is provided by Benzinga and other data providers. This page was last refreshed on Wednesday at 09:36 PM ET.

Should I Buy Marathon Petroleum Stock? MPC Pros and Cons Explained

These pros and cons were generated based on recent news and financial data from MarketBeat in order to provide readers with the fastest and most accurate insights. They were last updated on Monday, October 5, 2026. Please send any questions or comments about these Marathon Petroleum pros and cons to contact@marketbeat.com.

Marathon Petroleum
Bull Case

Here are some ways that investors could benefit from investing in Marathon Petroleum Co.:

Marathon Petroleum Co. recently reported a significant earnings beat for the quarter ended August 4, 2026, delivering $17.73 in earnings per share compared to the analyst consensus estimate of $14.27, which demonstrates strong operational performance and profitability that exceeds market expectations.
The company's revenue for the most recent quarter reached $51.99 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate of $40.87 billion and representing a 53.5% year-over-year increase, indicating robust demand for its refined products and effective pricing power in the current market environment.
Marathon Petroleum Co. has a low beta of 0.54, which suggests that the stock is less volatile than the overall market, potentially providing a more stable investment profile for investors seeking to reduce portfolio risk while still participating in the energy sector's growth.
With a current stock price of $433.04, the company is trading near its 52-week high of $437.67, reflecting strong investor confidence and positive momentum following recent analyst upgrades and improved refining margins driven by tight fuel inventories.
The company maintains a consistent dividend yield of 0.95% with a low payout ratio of 13.75%, indicating that the dividend is well-covered by earnings and that the company has ample financial flexibility to maintain or increase shareholder returns in the future.

Marathon Petroleum
Bear Case

Investors should be bearish about investing in Marathon Petroleum Co. for these reasons:

Insider selling activity has been notable recently, with insiders selling a total of 21,691 shares worth approximately $7.78 million in the last ninety days, including significant sales by VP Erin M. Brzezinski and insider Molly R. Benson, which may signal a lack of confidence from company leadership at current price levels.
The consensus price target from analysts is $370.38, which is significantly below the current stock price of $433.04, suggesting that the stock may be overvalued relative to the average analyst expectation and leaving limited room for further upside based on current estimates.
Marathon Petroleum Co. has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.19, indicating a relatively high level of leverage compared to its equity base, which could increase financial risk and interest expense obligations if interest rates remain elevated or if earnings decline.
Short interest has increased slightly, with 7,715,203 shares shorted as of the September 15, 2026 record date, representing a 1.5% month-over-month increase, which may indicate that some investors are betting against the stock's future performance.
The company's quick ratio of 0.89 is below 1.0, suggesting that it may not have enough liquid assets to cover its short-term liabilities without relying on the sale of inventory, which could pose a liquidity risk in a downturn or if inventory values decline.

MPC Forecast - Frequently Asked Questions

According to the research reports of 17 Wall Street equities research analysts, the average twelve-month stock price forecast for Marathon Petroleum is $370.38, with a high forecast of $472.00 and a low forecast of $210.00.

17 Wall Street research analysts have issued "buy," "hold," and "sell" ratings for Marathon Petroleum in the last year. There are currently 5 hold ratings, 11 buy ratings and 1 strong buy rating for the stock. The consensus among Wall Street research analysts is that investors should "moderate buy" MPC shares.

According to analysts, Marathon Petroleum's stock has a predicted downside of -16.18% based on their 12-month stock forecasts.

Over the previous 90 days, Marathon Petroleum's stock had 2 upgrades by analysts.

Marathon Petroleum has been rated by research analysts at Bank of America, Barclays, Citigroup, Evercore, Jefferies Financial Group, Mizuho, Morgan Stanley, Piper Sandler, Raymond James Financial, TD Cowen, The Goldman Sachs Group, UBS Group, Weiss Ratings, Wells Fargo & Company, and Zacks Research in the past 90 days.

Analysts like Marathon Petroleum more than other "energy" companies. The consensus rating for Marathon Petroleum is Moderate Buy while the average consensus rating for "energy" companies is Hold. Learn more on how MPC compares to other companies.

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MarketBeat monitors more than a dozen sources for Marathon Petroleum analyst ratings, with the most recent rating issued on 10/2/2026.

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Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Marathon Petroleum - Analysts' Recommendations and Stock Price Forecast (2026)

Consensus Rating

Consensus Price Target

MPC Analyst Ratings Over Time

MPC Analyst Recommendations By Month

MPC Price Targets by Month

Marathon Petroleum Stock vs. The Competition

Recent Analyst Forecasts and Stock Ratings

Should I Buy Marathon Petroleum Stock? MPC Pros and Cons Explained

Marathon Petroleum
Bull Case

Marathon Petroleum
Bear Case

MPC Forecast - Frequently Asked Questions

Stock Forecasts and Research Tools

Today's Analyst Ratings

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Brokerages With Marathon Petroleum Recommendations

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Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Marathon Petroleum - Analysts' Recommendations and Stock Price Forecast (2026)

Consensus Rating

Consensus Price Target

MPC Analyst Ratings Over Time

MPC Analyst Recommendations By Month

MPC Price Targets by Month

Marathon Petroleum Stock vs. The Competition

Recent Analyst Forecasts and Stock Ratings

Should I Buy Marathon Petroleum Stock? MPC Pros and Cons Explained

Marathon Petroleum Bull Case

Marathon Petroleum Bear Case

MPC Forecast - Frequently Asked Questions

What is Marathon Petroleum's forecast for 2026?

Should I buy or sell Marathon Petroleum stock right now?

Does Marathon Petroleum's stock price have much downside?

Has Marathon Petroleum been upgraded by Wall Street analysts recently?

What analysts cover Marathon Petroleum?

Do Wall Street analysts like Marathon Petroleum more than its competitors?

Stock Forecasts and Research Tools

Today's Analyst Ratings

Top-Rated Stocks

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Brokerages With Marathon Petroleum Recommendations

MarketBeat All Access Features

Best-in-Class Portfolio Monitoring

Stock Ideas and Recommendations

Advanced Stock Screeners and Research Tools

Marathon Petroleum
Bull Case

Marathon Petroleum
Bear Case