Huntington Bancshares Q4 2021 Earnings Call Transcript


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Participants

Corporate Executives

  • Timothy Sedabres
    Director of Investor Relations
  • Stephen D. Steinour
    Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer
  • Zachary Wasserman
    Senior Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
  • Richard Pohle
    Executive Vice President, Chief Credit Officer

Presentation

Operator

Greetings and welcome to the Huntington Bancshares' First Quarter Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I'd now like to turn the conference over to your host, Tim Sedabres, Director of Investor Relations.

Timothy Sedabres
Director of Investor Relations at Huntington Bancshares

Thank you, operator. Welcome, everyone, and good morning. Copies of the slides we will be reviewing today can be found on the Investor Relations section of our website, www.huntington.com. As a reminder, this call is being recorded, and a replay will be available starting about one hour from the close of the call.

Our presenters today are Steve Steinour, Chairman, President, and CEO; and Zach Wasserman, Chief Financial Officer. Executive Vice President, Chief Credit Officer. Rich Pohle, Chief Credit Officer, will join us for the Q&A.

As noted on Slide 2, today's discussion including the Q&A period will contain forward-looking statements. Such statements are based on information and assumptions available at this time and are subject to changes, and, risks and uncertainties, which may cause actual results to differ materially. We assume no obligation to update such statements. For a complete discussion of risks and uncertainties, please refer to this slide and material filed with the SEC including our most recent Forms 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K filings.

Let me now turn it over to Steve.

Stephen D. Steinour
Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer at Huntington Bancshares

Thanks, Tim. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining the call today.

Let me begin on Slide 3.

2021 was a transformational year for Huntington. We continued to live our purpose and remained focused on our vision to become the country's leading people-first, digitally-powered bank. We executed on our organic growth initiatives along with the timely closing of the TCF acquisition.

In the fourth quarter, we began by successfully completing conversion activities, and by the time we exited the quarter, we've refocused our teams on driving growth. We delivered record new loan production and continued to build on revenue initiatives.

We entered '22 with added scale, density, new markets, and specialty businesses. We are intently focused on driving growth and delivering top tier financial performance.

On Slide 4, we are pleased to report our excellent fourth-quarter results centered on four key areas. First, we finished '21 with record full-year revenue growth and broad-based loan production. We delivered strong performance across the board in our commercial businesses.

Second, our targeted cost savings are on track for full realization. This includes both the synergies resulting from TCF as well as the additional expense actions we announced last quarter.

Third, we are executing on key initiatives to deliver sustainable growth.

Pipelines are robust entering '22, and our teams are focused on driving revenue growth including the revenue synergy initiatives related to our new markets and capabilities.

Finally, we are very confident in our outlook for 2022 and beyond.

Slide 5 recaps our year-end review. Our financial results reflect the hard work of our teams over the course of '21. Return on tangible common equity came in at 19% excluding Notable Items. Credit performed very well, and we returned significant capital to our shareholders. We delivered robust organic growth in both consumer and business checking households with year-over-year growth of 4.5% and 7% respectively.

We continued to invest in revenue-producing colleagues and initiatives including new and expanded commercial banking verticals, capital markets, cards and payments, and wealth management.

In the Commercial Bank, we launched EDGE, an innovative analytics tool that supports our bankers deepening efforts and incorporating advanced data and insights tailored to each customer.

In Consumer Banking, we built upon our fair play approach and launched new and compelling products and services such as Standby Cash and Early Pay.

We expanded our leading SBA lending program to new states as well as added to our practice finance capabilities.

We were honored to be recognized for our expertise evidenced by being ranked #1 by J.D. Power for both customer satisfaction within our region as well as the top consumer mobile app amongst regional banks for the third consecutive year. Impressively, this was all achieved while our team successfully completed the closing and conversion of TCF.

On the capital front, we were pleased to accelerate our share repurchase program as well as increase the common stock dividend.

In closing, our teams accomplished a tremendous amount of work over the course of the year, and I want to thank all of our colleagues and our management team who supported these efforts.

I am increasingly bullish on the year ahead. The level of excitement is building across the organization, and our colleagues are energized and focused. We look forward to sharing our successes with all of you as we move throughout the year.

Zach, over to you to provide more detail on our financial performance.

Zachary Wasserman
Senior Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer at Huntington Bancshares

Thanks, Steve, and good morning, everyone.

Slide 6 provides highlights of our fourth-quarter results. We reported GAAP earnings per common share of $0.26. Adjusted for Notable Items, earnings per common share were $0.36. Return on tangible common equity or ROTCE came in at 13.2% for the quarter. Adjusted for Notable Items, ROTCE was 18.2%.

We were pleased to see loan balances rebound substantially during the quarter, driven by robust new production activity as total loans increased by $1.4 billion and excluding PPP runoff, loans increased by $2.4 billion. Consistent with our plan, we reduced core expenses excluding Notable Items by $21 million from last quarter, driven by the realization of cost synergies and ongoing highly disciplined expense management.

We managed absolute core expense dollars lower while continuing to grow investments in strategic areas across the bank such as digital capabilities, marketing to drive new customer acquisition and relationship deepening and select new personnel additions to support our revenue growth initiatives.

Within fee income categories, we saw continued momentum in our capital markets as well as wealth and investment businesses. Strong credit performance continued to be a hallmark with net charge-offs of 12 basis points and non-performing assets declining by 16% from the prior quarter. We actively managed our capital base, repurchasing $150 million of common stock in the fourth quarter. To date, we have completed $650 million of our $800 million share repurchase program.

Turning to Slide 7, period-end loan balances increased by 1.2% quarter-over-quarter totaling $111.9 billion. Total loan balances excluding PPP increased $2.4 billion or 2.2% during the quarter driven by commercial loans. Within commercial, excluding PPP, loans increased by $2.5 billion or 4.4% compared to the prior quarter. This growth was broad-based across all major portfolios and was driven by record new commercial loan production. Growth was led by middle market, corporate, and specialty banking, which increased by $1 billion and represented 40% of total commercial loan growth this quarter. Inventory finance increased by $597 million, auto dealer floorplan increased by $276 million, asset finance increased by $160 million, and commercial real estate increased by $267 million.

Within corporate and specialty banking, each of our commercial verticals contributed to growth this quarter, including Corporate Banking, Tech & Telecom, Healthcare, and Franchise. Inventory Finance growth was driven by a combination of seasonally higher balances due to inventory shipments in the quarter as well as expansion of existing customer programs. Higher utilization levels drove approximately two-thirds of the increased balances.

In auto floorplan, we are continuing to add new dealer relationships and growing our overall commitment levels. In addition, balance has benefited from improved utilization rates, which increased from the mid '20s to approximately 30% in the quarter. Even as we delivered record loan production, calling activities across the business continued at a rapid pace. We ended the quarter with commercial loan pipelines 34% higher versus the prior quarter and 49% higher than prior year, supporting our outlook for continued loan growth ex-PPP throughout 2022.

On the consumer side, residential mortgage increased by $334 million and auto increased by $129 million. This was offset by home equity, which declined by $369 million.

Turning to Slide 8, deposit balances increased by $1.4 billion. As we continued to experience elevated customer liquidity and optimized our funding reducing CD balances by over $700 million. Consumer deposit balances increased by $1.6 billion from the prior quarter. Commercial balances increased by $300 million from the prior quarter.

On Slide 9, reported net interest income declined modestly from the prior quarter as a result of lower PPP revenue. Core net interest income excluding PPP and purchase accounting accretion was stable at $1.085 billion. With ending loan balances well above average balances for the quarter, we entered the first quarter of 2022 with a solid launch point from which to grow core net interest income going forward. Additionally, we continued to manage excess liquidity by funding loan growth and adding to the securities portfolio, reducing excess cash at the Fed to $3.7 billion from $8.1 billion of prior quarter-end. On an average basis for the quarter, access liquidity represented a drag on a margin of approximately 14 basis points.

Turning to Slide 10, we are dynamically managing the balance sheet to increase asset sensitivity and provide downside protection. During the fourth quarter, we added $2.8 billion of securities, and we continued to optimize our hedging program. We terminated $3.9 billion of received fixed swaps and floors, and we entered into new pay fixed swaps in order to bolster our asset sensitivity.

As rates moved higher, we opportunistically added $5 billion of received fixed swaps in order to manage downside risks. At year-end, our modeled net interest income asset sensitivity in an up 100 basis point scenario was 4.6%. We have steadily increased this metric over the past 18 months, supporting our ability to continue to capture upside opportunity as interest rates increased.

Moving to Slide 11, noninterest income was $515 million, up a $106 million year-over-year and down $20 million from last quarter. Lower fee revenues in the fourth quarter were driven by a decline in mortgage banking, primarily as a result of lower salable spreads. Our targeted focus on growing strategic fee revenue streams continued to bear fruit with capital market fees up $7 million or 18% from the prior quarter.

Wealth and investments and insurance also performed quite well. Card and payments revenues, which are typically seasonally flat from Q3 to Q4, declined slightly from the prior quarter. In fact, it up the margin by ATM volumes and the debit card conversion for TCF customers during the month of October. The underlying core business activity in cards and payments continues to be very solid, and we saw a restoration of ongoing growth in that business as the quarter progressed after conversion. Deposit service charges declined $13 million compared to the prior quarter as a result of TCF customers transitioning onto the Huntington Fair Play product set.

Moving on to Slide 12, noninterest expense declined $68 million from the prior quarter. And excluding Notable Items, core expenses declined by $21 million to $1.034 billion, as we captured cost savings from the acquisition and exercised disciplined expense management. As we shared previously, we expect our core expenses to trend down in the first and second quarters fairly ratably over that period to approximately $1 billion for the second quarter.

Even as we work to bring down expense levels, we are continuing to invest in initiatives that will drive sustainable revenue growth while being disciplined in managing our overall expense base. As you saw last quarter, we took additional actions in order to free up capacity to support these investments, while remaining committed to the absolute core expense declines in the near term.

Over the longer term, we expect expense growth to be a function of revenue growth, as we manage within our commitment to positive operating leverage.

Slide 13 highlights our capital position. Common equity Tier 1 ended the quarter at 9.3%, consistent with our prior guidance to operate within the lower half of our 9% to 10% operating guideline. We have $150 million remaining of our current share repurchase program.

As you can see on Slide 14, credit quality continues to perform well. Net charge-offs declined for the fourth consecutive quarter. Our nonperforming assets declined 16% from the previous quarter. Our ending allowance for credit losses represented 1.88% of total loans, down from 1.99% the prior quarter-end. The improving economic outlook and our stable credit quality resulted in a reserve release of $98 million in the fourth quarter.

Slide 15 covers our medium-term financial goals. We are focused on driving sustained revenue growth while managing expenses within our long-term commitment to positive operating leverage and achieving a 17% plus return on tangible common equity. We expect to begin seeing this performance in the second half of 2022.

Finally turning to Slide 16, let me share a couple of thoughts on our expectations for 2022. Our outlook is based on the starting point of our most recent quarterly results with expectations for year-over-year comparisons for the fourth quarter of 2022. It also assumes continued economic expansion, aligned to market consensus as well as interest rate yield curve expectations as of early January. We expect average loan growth ex-PPP to be up high single digits based on our starting point of $107.9 dollars.

As a result of loan growth and modestly higher net interest margin, we expect core net interest income on a dollar basis excluding PPP and purchase accounting accretion to grow in the high single digit to low double digits range. Fee revenues are expected to be up low single digits, driven by robust growth in key categories aligned to our strategies, including capital markets, our card, and treasury management payments businesses, and wealth and advisory with offsetting impact from lower year-over-year revenues in mortgage banking and the continued evolution of our Fair Play products.

As mentioned, we expect to continue to drive the sequential reduction in core expenses for the next several quarters, as we fully realize the TCF cost synergies and benefit from broader expense management. At the same time, we are continuing to invest in our strategic growth initiatives and new revenue synergy opportunities. We expect the quarterly run rate of core expenses to be approximately $1 billion by the second quarter and then remain relatively stable over the second half of the year from that level.

In closing, we've keenly focused on the revenue opportunities ahead of us. We have the teams directed towards these key initiatives, and we're confident in our 2022 outlook to deliver on this plan. We believe these drivers of our outlook are aligned with our goals for sustained revenue growth of 17% plus return on tangible common equity and our commitment to annual positive operating leverage.

Now, let me pass it back to Steve for a couple of closing comments before we open up for Q&A.

Stephen D. Steinour
Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer at Huntington Bancshares

Thank you, Zach.

Slide 17 summarizes what we believe is a compelling opportunity. Huntington stands as a powerful top 10 regional bank with scale and leading market density as well as a compelling set of capabilities both in footprint and nationally.

We're focused on driving sustainable revenue growth, which is bolstered by new markets and new businesses. This growth opportunity augments our underlying businesses in many cases where we have top 10 market positions. As a result of these factors, we've demonstrated robust financial performance that we expect to further improve as we move throughout '22. We believe our return on capital will be in the top tier versus peers, which results in substantial value creation for shareholders.

Tim, let's open up the call for Q&A.

Questions and Answers

Timothy Sedabres
Director of Investor Relations at Huntington Bancshares

Thanks, Steve. Operator, we will now take questions. We ask that as a courtesy to your peers, each person ask only one question and one related follow-up, and then if that person has additional questions, he or she can add themselves back into the queue. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And our first question today is from the line of Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America. Please proceed with your questions.

Ebrahim Poonawala
Analyst at Bank of America

Hey, good morning.

Stephen D. Steinour
Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer at Huntington Bancshares

Good morning, Ebrahim.

Zachary Wasserman
Senior Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer at Huntington Bancshares

Good morning.

Ebrahim Poonawala
Analyst at Bank of America

I guess maybe just wanted to follow up around the expense guidance, Zack. You mentioned about $1 billion flat-lining in the back half, but just give us a little bit of puts and takes in terms of where the savings are coming right now. I'm sure, much like everyone else, you're investing in the franchise, so if you don't mind giving us a length of like how we should think about a little bit of a medium-term expense growth outlook or are there saving opportunities at the bank where expenses could be around these levels for more than just 2022.

Zachary Wasserman
Senior Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer at Huntington Bancshares

Yeah, thanks for the question. I think it's an area of important focus for us as well, and just [Indecipherable] really pleased with the trajectory that we're on here. As we've talked about for a while, we're committed to take our expenses from the high watermark in Q3 of '21 of $1.055 million down to that [Indecipherable] over a three-quarter period, and we saw the first step down in Q4 at $21 million. We expect to see the remaining fairly ratably in Q1 and Q2 and then fairly steady for the balance of '22. I think as you get beyond '22 and onto the future, the way we're looking at it is to manage within the confines of our commitment to positive operating leverage, just as we have for the eight of the last nine years. Given our revenue growth trajectory and what we expect to be pretty solid and sustained revenue growth, that will provide the capacity to maintain expenses within that level and still invest back in the business, and clearly, there will be plenty of opportunities as we go forward to continue to drive scale efficiencies, process improvements, automation and lots of ways to drive efficiencies that will allow us to plow back investments into the key initiatives while still achieving our positive operating leverage.

Ebrahim Poonawala
Analyst at Bank of America

Got it, and just as a follow-up, as part of the loan growth guidance, if you could remind us, I mean TCF obviously had a bunch of businesses that are levered towards capex and inventory rebuilds both in auto dealer and outside of that, how much of that is baked into this loan growth guidance? And what's the potential for loan growth actually exceeding expectations that you outlined?

Stephen D. Steinour
Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer at Huntington Bancshares

Yeah. So, the guidance as we talked about was high single digits for loan growth, overall it will be driven by production. I think it will look pretty similar to what we saw in Q4 that is commercial led, driven by production, and really supported by what we're seeing from our customers and just really robust pipeline and calling activities at this point and it's across all the commercial sectors including those that we believe [Indecipherable] TCF, middle-market corporate banking, our specialty verticals, but also really important contributors from the inventory finance business, the vendor and asset finance business that we picked up from TCF as well. In addition, I would point out a continued contribution from the consumer side as well. We are expecting sustained growth in resi on sheet [Phonetic] auto, RV/marine and also likely benefiting there from lower prepays as we go forward. We have assumed a modest contribution from utilization improvement during the year, and that will contribute to some degree, but I would note that that $5 billion of line utilization below pre-pandemic levels is just a massive coiled spring that will enable us to fuel growth, likely some in the back half of '22, much more as we go out in the future, into '23 and beyond.

Ebrahim Poonawala
Analyst at Bank of America

Helpful. Thank you for taking my questions.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is coming from the line of Scott Siefers with Piper Sandler. Please proceed with your questions.

Scott Siefers
Analyst at Piper Sandler Companies

Good morning, guys, thanks for taking my question. Wanted to -- hey, I wanted to start by maybe drilling down a little into the margins, maybe sort of your best thoughts on how you see the margin trajecting throughout the year, I guess maybe the best starting point is probably the adjusted 278 margin and to the extent that you're comfortable, any thoughts on sort of your best estimate for how much benefit you would get from each Fed rate hike?

Richard Pohle
Executive Vice President, Chief Credit Officer at Huntington Bancshares

Yeah, it's a great question. The guidance implies stable to slightly higher and that's my expectation to continue to have trend rapidly higher as we go forward, and I think the dynamic that we will see is very similar to what we've been talking about for a while. We'll see a slow roll-off of our previous pre-existing hedging program, but that will be offset by benefits and reductions in the level of excess liquidity and the drag on margin that that represents. We talked about 14 basis point drag in Q4. [Indecipherable] we do expect a lot of that to run off, not all of it to run off during 2022, which will be a benefit, and then in the rate environment, which to the point of your question is somewhat uncertain, just given where the expectations of rate hikes are at this point in the forward yield curve, but I do expect that to be a positive contributor as we go forward here.

Scott Siefers
Analyst at Piper Sandler Companies

Okay, perfect. And just sort of to be clear, I think in your prepared remarks, you noted that the NII guide was based on early January market expectations. So, does that embed them three Fed rate hikes into the guidance?

Zachary Wasserman
Senior Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer at Huntington Bancshares

Yeah, correct. So, the planning and budgeting that we completed was based on the early January rate curve that had three rate hikes in it. Over the last few weeks, clearly the curve has moved and sort of roughly pulled about a month forward where it had previously been the trajectory around the forward yield curve such that it gathers, I think, a fourth hike now forecasted in the very last period in the year and that should be helpful for our Q4 guidance, but I would point you back to the guidance as why we are dealing with the key range there inclusive of that.

Scott Siefers
Analyst at Piper Sandler Companies

Perfect. All right, thank you.

Zachary Wasserman
Senior Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer at Huntington Bancshares

Thanks, Scott.

Operator

Our next question is coming from the line of Steven Alexopoulos with J.P. Morgan. Please proceed with your questions.

Steven Alexopoulos
Analyst at J.P. Morgan

Hey, good morning, everybody.

Stephen D. Steinour
Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer at Huntington Bancshares

Good morning, Steven.

Steven Alexopoulos
Analyst at J.P. Morgan

I wanted to start -- so the net interest income outlook for 2022 has a pretty wide range, low -- high single digit to low double digit. Can you walk through because you're basing it on the forward curve, so what is the swing factor that will take you either to the low end of that range or high end of that range?

Stephen D. Steinour
Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer at Huntington Bancshares

Yeah, I mean I would say it's mainly driven by where we end on asset growth. The more asset growth we have, the more incremental NII lift we will have on growth basis just given the fact that the yield will be stable to up. That's the big driver there, I think as well -- just further to the last question, where the rate curve ends up going throughout the course of the year, it's clearly been somewhat volatile here over the last several months. At where it is now, I think our guidance stands and -- but those are the dynamics that drive the range within it. [Speech Overlap].

Steven Alexopoulos
Analyst at J.P. Morgan

So, if average Loans come out up high single digits, you'd be somewhere on the midpoint. Is that safe to assume of the NII guide?

Stephen D. Steinour
Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer at Huntington Bancshares

Correct.

Steven Alexopoulos
Analyst at J.P. Morgan

Okay, thanks. And then on expenses, you guys seem to be one of the few banks not lifting the expense outlook, given all this talk about inflation, are you just not seeing as much wage pressure and inflation in your footprint, are you just finding more offsets that others aren't finding? Thanks.

Stephen D. Steinour
Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer at Huntington Bancshares

Yeah, look, I think we're clearly seeing some indicators of inflation within the business, I would -- most notably hiring new talent [Indecipherable] compensation expectations from our top talent. And I would know when we talk to our clients, particularly those that are in commodity intensive businesses or labor intensive businesses, they're feeling it having to adjust to manage it. At this point, the direct impacts on our expense base have been relatively limited and we've anticipated some wage inflation as we're going into the year, trying to get ahead of it through the series of actions on compensation. We announced an increase to our minimum wage across the company to $19 an hour from previously $17. We make a number of other priority adjustments. And so, we think we've got it boxed now in the 2022 plan and it included in our guidance. Lastly, I guess I would close with -- I think there is a unique point in time that we have that perhaps some others don't, where we've got the benefits of scale coming from the TCF acquisition, both the cost synergies that we've already defined and are executing against, but over the long term, we see more opportunities to continue to refine and get scale efficiencies, so that also I think contributes to helping us to maintain that really solid expense growth less in revenue.

Zachary Wasserman
Senior Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer at Huntington Bancshares

Stephen, just to add along, we took some actions in the third quarter and that includes 62 branch consolidations that will happen in early February and we took some other management what we stylize as organization issues as well. So, we anticipated some level of inflation coming into the year. We tried to get ahead of it with those actions, I think, in the third quarter.

Steven Alexopoulos
Analyst at J.P. Morgan

Okay, very good. Thanks for taking my questions.

Stephen D. Steinour
Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer at Huntington Bancshares

Thank you.

Zachary Wasserman
Senior Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer at Huntington Bancshares

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is coming from the line of Ken Usdin with Jefferies. Please proceed with your questions.

Ken Usdin
Analyst at Jefferies Financial Group

Hey, thanks. Good morning, guys. Good morning. I was wondering, Zach, in the outlook for NII, you talked about the loan growth side, I was just wondering if you could fill that in and tell us how you're thinking about both the growth and mix on the deposit side?

Zachary Wasserman
Senior Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer at Huntington Bancshares

Yeah, I do expect to see deposit growth to begin to accelerate here and I think it will be a pretty balanced mix between consumer and commercial as we go forward. For the last several quarters, we were putting smaller emphasis on that just given how strong liquidity has been throughout the system, and then the teams were re-pivoting back to drive that growth. And so, that will be a good balance to fund what we expected [Indecipherable] accelerated loan growth throughout the year.

Ken Usdin
Analyst at Jefferies Financial Group

Right. And that's why I was just wondering like are you expecting earning assets to grow or is it more about remixing the left side of the balance sheet?

Zachary Wasserman
Senior Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer at Huntington Bancshares

Look, I think we'll see a bit of incremental growth in the securities portfolio. We're watching the elevated liquidity situation pretty, pretty closely and same playbook we've been operating with the last several quarters, just taking an incremental view month by month, looking at where that trend is and optimizing to see if there is -- if it's appropriate to add additional securities, but I do think [Indecipherable] as we see loan growth start to accelerate -- to hit the high single-digit guidance that we've given.

Ken Usdin
Analyst at Jefferies Financial Group

Right, okay. And I just -- can you tell us in your fee guide what you're using in terms of the Fair Play impact and outlook on overdrafts and related fees? Thanks.

Stephen D. Steinour
Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer at Huntington Bancshares

Sure, yeah, let's talk about that. Okay. Let me start. We introduced Fair Play 12 years ago, brought out 24-Hour Grace and Asterisk-Free Checking. [Indecipherable] almost every year, 2014, we noted all the deposits. But, more recently in '20, we put the Safety Zone at $50 net loan[Phonetic]. We took 24-Hour Grace to our business customers because of the pandemic and the impact on small businesses and we felt that was the right time and thing to do to help those businesses at that point in time. The last year, we came forward with Standby Cash and Early Pay and obviously we rolled all that out effective with the convergence of the TCF customers, so we pointed out and expected drag of that. We also -- we've got ourselves into a leadership position, I think, for more than the last decade in this area. It's added to our brand value, our customer household growth, our relationship retention and expansion, and significant detail across products, so that has added to our brand and our loyalty, and I think as we go forward, we'll will still retain this leadership role. There are plans we have in place, going back now a number of months to do some more, looking out for our customers with Fair Play, obviously with what the industry is doing and pivot in the last month or so. We're watching that closely, and we would expect to react to that and we'll communicate more going forward, but that guidance range includes what we're contemplating as we move forward this year in Fair Play and other fees, maybe Zach you could endorse the guidance if you [Speech Overlap].

Zachary Wasserman
Senior Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer at Huntington Bancshares

[Indecipherable] when we construct these product changes, we think about the economics holistically. There are fees that we see on a gross basis, like overdraft wizard [Phonetic]. There are also a lot of other levers in the consumer checking product economics, like other related account fees, other product features and over time, really importantly, the impact of that market leadership position has on elevated acquisition, the kind of retention and the relationship deepening that we can drive and so to be clear, included in my guidance on the overall fee line is the assumption of a net fee reduction of approximately $16 million in Q4 from these changes. I would expect them to be in place by the middle of the year, and I would highlight that notwithstanding that impact, we do expect to see continued growth on the overall fee line into, as indicated by my guidance, the low single digits driven by those strategic categories, capital markets, payments, wealth and advisory.

In addition to the fee impacts from the changes we're anticipating in our consumer products, we also expect to see a reduction of between $3 million and $5 million dollars per quarter in charge-offs and the lower overdraft fees that we charge on a gross basis create just fewer incidences of uncollectible fees and has lower charge-offs, [Indecipherable] concluding on this discussion, we really believe that the positioning of our products is critical, and as we maintain that market leadership, this is a play we've run many times before and the benefits we see in acquisition, retention and deepening as we maintain our leadership, we would expect to earn back that run rate fee loss [Phonetic] in approximately 18 to 24 months, very much consistent with what we've seen in the past.

Ken Usdin
Analyst at Jefferies Financial Group

Thank you.

Stephen D. Steinour
Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer at Huntington Bancshares

Thanks, Ken.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Jon Arfstrom with RBC Capital. Please proceed with your questions.

Jon Arfstrom
Analyst at RBC Capital

Great. Thanks, good morning, guys.

Stephen D. Steinour
Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer at Huntington Bancshares

Hi, Jon, good morning.

Jon Arfstrom
Analyst at RBC Capital

Question for you guys. Obviously, the expense guidance and the revenue guidance looks pretty good. There is one piece of it we haven't tackled and that's provisions, and just curious how you feel about credit and risk, you still have fairly high reserves relative to peers. I know some of that's accounting, but with the lower loss expectations and Zach, what you just said as well on charge-offs, can you help us think through the provision expectations?

Richard Pohle
Executive Vice President, Chief Credit Officer at Huntington Bancshares

Yeah, I am -- this is Richard. Let me take that. We feel very good about the condition of the portfolio right now, the charge-offs for the year and the reduction in the NPAs, both notable and both very positive. As it relates to the provision and the allowance, we have always been on the conservative side of the allowance. We started CECL day one on the high end and we've been very conservative on the way up, and I think very prudent on the way down, and we'll continue that way. And there's things that we're looking at in the economy as it relates to supply chain and labor, that type of thing, and just the continuing impacts of COVID that are just giving us pause as it relates to where we set the allowance, but it's a very disciplined process that we go through every quarter. We've had five consecutive reductions in the ACL ratio since we peaked in the third quarter of 2020, and we'll look at it every quarter as we always do with a very disciplined approach and if there is a supply chain ease, conditions ease, and labor conditions start to improve, I would expect a lot of continued reductions over time.

Zachary Wasserman
Senior Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer at Huntington Bancshares

Jon, our outlook is for reductions during '22 and charge-offs below the historic range, and we ended the year with very, very good credit quality and very pleased with the performance of the portfolio that came out with TCF, so loans have been re-graded. So there is consistency now as of the end of the year and the economic outlook plus what we've seen in the customer bases gives us a lot of optimism as we go forward on the provision line.

Jon Arfstrom
Analyst at RBC Capital

Okay. That helps. And then just as a follow-up, Steve, maybe more of a medium-term view on credit, it seems like you obviously have strong growth. And I know you're a risk person by nature, but the entire industry has strong growth expectations as well. Curious how long you think this all lasts without any real concerns on credit? Thanks.

Stephen D. Steinour
Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer at Huntington Bancshares

My current belief, Jon, is that we're going to go through 24, with a fairly robust GDP growth and performance on credit, and there's just an enormous amount of stimulus that has been enacted thus far and some of it is multi-year where the good economy has performed well, but there has been labor constraint. As that sorts out, I think that puts longer legs into the growth. The supply chain issues that we face that are constraining production did constrain in '21, will do this so for much of '22, if not all the year, will get abated over time. We think things will get better a bit in the second half, but in some of these industries, '23 will become a more normal year.

So those factors and others give us confidence that we've got a multi-year positive slope on loan growth, GDP and underlying credit quality in a [Indecipherable] that remained disciplined and we published the quarterly results for consumer and there is literally no variance over the last decade plus. So we're quite confident of our capabilities to manage the risks at these levels. We're very pleased with the additional talent we gathered from TCF, both on the origination side and in the credit areas as we think about future, so '25 or beyond would be where we're a little more concerned than we will be over the next few years.

Jon Arfstrom
Analyst at RBC Capital

Thanks a lot, Stephen.

Stephen D. Steinour
Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer at Huntington Bancshares

Thanks, Jon.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Peter Winter with Wedbush. Please proceed with your questions.

Peter Winter
Analyst at Wedbush

Good morning. Zach, I wanted to follow up on Ken's questions, just with regards to the outlook for service charges on deposit with the Fair Play. It was down $13 million this quarter. Can you just go through what the outlook is from fourth quarter levels, just with the puts and takes that you talked about again?

Zachary Wasserman
Senior Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer at Huntington Bancshares

Sure. Absolutely. Good question. We converted the TCF customers on the second week of October, so we had almost the entire quarter's worth of run rate of the TCF customers onto the Fair Play product in Q4. There might be a very marginal incremental impact into Q1, but for the most part, we're kind of at the new level of trending and as we said, we're continuing to roll out new product changes, frankly of the same kind of nature that we have been doing across the last 10 years, but we do expect to respond to what's happening and to do that by the middle of this year and that will drive roughly $16 million incremental quarterly run rate reduction in fees on a net basis by Q4, just to be clear, in the guidance. So, those are the [Indecipherable] puts and takes, you are kind of a relatively flat level and then we'll see those new changes come into place midyear with that roughly $16 million quarterly reduction in Q4.

Peter Winter
Analyst at Wedbush

Got it, got it. That's helpful and then just -- I was wondering, could you just give an update on revenue synergies from TCF where you're seeing the biggest opportunities and what's happening in some of the newer markets. And I think back to the FirstMerit deal, I think it was about $100 million in revenue synergies. I'm just wondering if maybe you could quantify what the impact could be with TCF.

Zachary Wasserman
Senior Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer at Huntington Bancshares

Yeah, we're really, really pleased with where they're going and we talked a little bit in multiple conferences, but there are four or five big buckets of them, expanding our corporate business in the middle market the corporate space, and specialty businesses into the major commercial hubs within the formally TCF geographical footprint, like expanding in Chicago, expanding in Detroit, Denver is brand new, Minneapolis and St. Paul is brand new to Huntington. So, that's a big one, bringing consumer product set to the TCF customers, we're seeing the second major bucket. We are seeing terrific early signs of engagement and how folks are reacting to early product set with the digital channels and capabilities.

Third, expanding our business banking and market-leading SBA production into the TCF geographies, and we're well underway of hiring all those teams and getting them into traction. Wealth management in private banking is enormous fourth opportunity for us and we've already begun to build out very significant teams; for example in Minneapolis twin cities and in Denver. And then lastly just leveraging the quite sizable field equipment and inventory finance business, combining what we have forward in the great businesses that we brought over from TCF. [Indecipherable] big buckets and we're seeing good traction and wins already. We haven't given a precise guidance on that in the past and I am not ready to do that today, but it's already contributing to the growth outlook and helping us to drive the kind of acceleration that we expect to see in both fees and loans in '22, and as we go forward, we could provide more and more color on that as those continue to develop.

Stephen D. Steinour
Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer at Huntington Bancshares

Zach, if I could add, the capital markets fee income lift in the fourth quarter was at least in part related to the combination of TCF, so the middle market banking didn't exist in Chicago or the Twin Cities or Denver. Before TCF, the broker-dealer was outsourced [Indecipherable] it is just that there are a number of product categories and capabilities that we have that we will be bringing in these expanded markets. And then the context of the things TCF did incredibly well, asset finance, inventory finance, etc., we have now the ability to cross-sell into that customer base, which historically was not done, so on the consumer side, 1.5 million consumers that -- much more robust products than you said that we will be offering and we're multiple on home equity, and again, which was not offered in the branch delivery system by TCF as well as mortgage so, excited across the board. We think we have a lot of consumer and business opportunities on the cross-sell side.

Peter Winter
Analyst at Wedbush

That's great. Thanks, Steve.

Stephen D. Steinour
Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer at Huntington Bancshares

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Erika Najarian with UBS. Please proceed with your questions.

Erika Najarian
Analyst at UBS Group

Hi, good morning. I just had a few clean-up questions on NII sensitivity, but, Steve, I thought it was very interesting when a large bank kicked off earnings saying 24-Hour Grace and something you kicked off 12 years ago. My first question is for Zach. Zach, could you tell us in the 4.6% NII sensitivity what you're assuming for deposit repricing in that analysis and what do you expect to actually happen as you think about the first few rate hikes?

Zachary Wasserman
Senior Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer at Huntington Bancshares

Yeah, it's a great question, Erika. Thank you. As it relates to deposit betas, I think it's a little too early to tell. We're expecting similar dynamics to the last major rate cycle. We do think there'll be competing forces here to some degree that the extremely low level of starting rates where we're at right now, we tend to indicate a higher beta. With that being said, the level of -- extraordinary levels of excess liquidity across the system, we tend to mute that and indicate a lower beta. So I'd say we're watching the situation very carefully on liquidity and the pace of loan growth and we will be disciplined and dynamic as we go forward.

In the actual modeling of the asset sensitivity, those models are intended to be stable on average over time and irrespective of the current level of interest rates to model the ramp, and so the assumptions in that are around 25% to 30% beta, which has been sort of the long-term average we've seen. I would tell you I believe there is an opportunity that will be lower than that in the initial rate moves and that's my general expectation, but again I think we will have to be dynamic and watch it really carefully.

Erika Najarian
Analyst at UBS Group

And my follow-up question to that is yesterday -- and it is going to follow up to it [Indecipherable] asking about earlier. A few regional banks are now expecting negative deposit growth. To your earlier point, Zach, the system is awash with liquidity and a few big banks kicked off earnings season saying that deposit growth won't be negative and a few regional banks mentioned yesterday that they expect deposit growth to be negative. And I'm wondering -- Huntington has always been known for its core operational deposit base plus you added TCF, I'm wondering how you're thinking about deposit growth. You mentioned, it's going to be positive this year, but as we have more maturity in the rate cycle, how do you expect deposit growth to behave on an overall basis?

Zachary Wasserman
Senior Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer at Huntington Bancshares

Yeah, I do think our current expectation and the trends we're seeing the business would indicate we will continue do see deposit growth in 2022. I think there's sort of two factors we've been watching that are slightly offset each other. On one hand, we do -- we are observing, particularly in the consumer space, some degree of normalization of the elevated liquidity that we saw build up at the tail end of 2020 and certainly into 2021, largely influenced by stimulus and other factors like that in the savings behavior around COVID. So, that is a sort of a gradual normalization. With that being said, our customer acquisition and the ongoing work we're doing to deepen relationships certainly augmented by the TCF synergy opportunities are offsetting that, and we expect to drive net growth in consumer offsetting that pandemic deposit normalization trend that I noted.

On the commercial side, we're seeing just continued robust liquidity in our clients and that's driving solid deposit growth and as we focus on that, even more going forward, to continue to fund this accelerating loan growth, we'll see that contribute as well. So overall, I'm expecting pretty balanced deposit growth between the two. And I think those are the kind of underlying drivers of it.

Stephen D. Steinour
Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer at Huntington Bancshares

Zach, if I could add to that Erika's question, we've put a liquidity portal in play for our commercial customers a year and a half ago to try and take excess deposits and move them off balance sheet, Erika. So, we're not sitting with a cumulative superjumbo set of commercial depositors in the portfolio. We just didn't want that risk profile plus we felt we can do a better job looking out for the customer's [Indecipherable] portal so that will help push [Indecipherable] as whatever normalization, if there is any, other customer base occurs. Secondly, we've introduced a digital tool -- an analytics tool, that has great promise for us. We've got roughly 500,000 business customers and we're now able to get at the data in a much more real-time way in terms of product needs based on usage and other characteristics. So, we expect that will drive our TM business in a significant way in the years ahead.

Erika Najarian
Analyst at UBS Group

Very helpful, thank you.

Stephen D. Steinour
Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer at Huntington Bancshares

Thanks for your questions.

Erika Najarian
Analyst at UBS Group

Yeah.

Operator

The next question is coming from the line of Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.

Matt O'Connor
Analyst at Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft

Good morning. You guys are the #1 SBA lender and I was wondering if you could talk about what you're seeing in terms of demand there now that PPP is kind of mostly done or winding down. I would imagine when PPP was going on there is kind of little to no demand and wondering how that's been trending more recently.

Stephen D. Steinour
Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer at Huntington Bancshares

Matt, we had a cumulative with TCF over $12 billion of PPP lending and notwithstanding that, we had robust SBA lending almost in parallel through the last two years. As we entered the fourth quarter, we continued to see demand for that product and we expect it will actually increase this year, in part because of the new markets that we're going to be able to expose our capabilities to. Twin Cities, great business market in Denver, [Indecipherable] really terrific -- Colorado is a terrific state to be doing business in, and now we're roughly at scale in Chicago with 150 plus points of distribution versus 30. That will help those three regions drive our lending activity overall including SBA.

Matt O'Connor
Analyst at Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft

Interesting. And then separately, credit quality question, you're a very big auto underwriter on the consumer side and commercial, but I'm focused on the consumer side. We've had this massive increase in used car prices. Any thoughts in terms of tightening standards as we think about LTVs, you've had a little bit of trend down there, with the disclosure in the appendix, but just how do you think about underwriting for these used cars that have increased 40% to 45% versus a year ago.

Richard Pohle
Executive Vice President, Chief Credit Officer at Huntington Bancshares

Yeah, Matt, it's Rich, I'll take that. As you noted in the slides, the LTVs have come down. We peaked in 2019 at 90% and we ended 2021 at 85%. So, we have reacted to the increase in auto prices by now [Phonetic] bringing the LTVs down, but first and foremost for us, the auto business is really based on client selection. We are a super-prime lender and we've developed a custom scorecard over many, many years in this business that very effectively predicts those customers that are not going to have a payment issue and so for us, it's really avoiding the situation where you have to get the car back in the first place, and we've done a phenomenal job of doing that over time. We also feel that we've been in this business for a long time, and we have to be a consistent provider of capital to our dealers, and so we've over the course of many cycles worked through high prices, low prices, high demand, low demand and we had learnings from all of that as we have been one of the leading auto dealers or auto financers in the country going back in time, so I feel that we've got a good handle on the risk here notwithstanding the increase in car prices. We've adjusted our custom scorecards appropriately and feel that we're going to come through this in really good shape as we always have.

Stephen D. Steinour
Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer at Huntington Bancshares

[Speech Overlap] we haven't had a delinquency on the floorplan side of this business. And I'm going to say decades, certainly more than a decade, as I've been around and we really liked the underlying credit quality performance that the dealer has been able to generate in the last couple of years. So, the fundamentals of the business with a low expected default rate in the indirect side and an incredibly low risk on the dealer side keep us -- continue to keep us very bullish on the business.

Matt O'Connor
Analyst at Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft

Thank you.

Stephen D. Steinour
Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer at Huntington Bancshares

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of John Pancari with Evercore. Please proceed with your questions.

John Pancari
Analyst at Evercore ISI

Good morning.

Stephen D. Steinour
Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer at Huntington Bancshares

Hi, John.

Zachary Wasserman
Senior Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer at Huntington Bancshares

Hi, John.

John Pancari
Analyst at Evercore ISI

I guess back to that auto question, I know in the -- in your loan growth outlook for high single digits for 2022, so you do mention auto growth as a driver. I mean on the growth side, can you just talk about how you're thinking about the portfolio growth as you look at the year, particularly if we get some moderation in used auto demand as the -- let's call that reopening continues and everything, so wanted to get your updated thoughts on that portfolio, specifically in terms of growth. Thanks.

Stephen D. Steinour
Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer at Huntington Bancshares

So, John, we would expect that portfolio will continue to grow, we are going to open up in another five or so states this year. We've had this gradual rollout now for a number of years and that will be complete. Eventually, we will be in the lower [Indecipherable] with this business. But, we have fundamental expectation of -- that the new car market is going to come back off of last year's production probably by million and half to two million cars to get 15 and 15.5 total on the new side, so that will pick up a bit, the mix will slightly shift again back to where it has historically or closer to that on the mix side of the equation. As you know, we like the business. We think of it as low risk. It is a [Indecipherable] average rated assets. So, we're highly now automated. We have almost half our acts coming through on the digital basis and it is end-to-end digital for us. So, we're very, very efficient with it.

John Pancari
Analyst at Evercore ISI

Okay, great. And then also related to that, I believe the utilization comment you gave earlier in terms of increasing from the mid-20%s to 30%, that's for the floorplan business, I believe, which is correct me if I'm wrong. And then if it is, what is your utilization trend for the non-floorplan commercial revolvers.

Zachary Wasserman
Senior Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer at Huntington Bancshares

On that [Indecipherable] I'll take that. We saw nice upticks, modest upticks in utilization in every one of our three major line utilization categories, auto, just to your point, the growth from 23% to 30% in the quarter, inventory finance rose from 25% to 32% [Indecipherable] seasonally, and that's typical in the fourth quarter of that business and then the general motor market revolvers went from 40% to 41% in the quarter. So, we saw good early signs here, encouraging signs of that utilization recovery that we saw that as I said in my earlier remarks, [Indecipherable] of additional line utilization when we expect to recover back to pre-pandemic levels over the longer term.

John Pancari
Analyst at Evercore ISI

Got it, got it. If I could ask just one more high level one, just saw some news this morning about Intel looking to build a pretty sizable chip facility there near Columbus. And I just wanted to get your thoughts on the implications of something like that. Do you think there is follow-on benefits to the loan demand there in your markets and do you think that it is a start of something where more of these tech companies could be building operations there in your markets.

Stephen D. Steinour
Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer at Huntington Bancshares

John, [Indecipherable] referencing is Intel's announcing of a large chip plant, the CEO of Intel called it the largest chip plant in the world, it will be about 1 million square feet. It is initially a land set aside of a 1,000 acres to accommodate this. It's expected that there'll be follow-ons and there'll be other businesses, large businesses, suppliers to that plant that will co-locate as part of that 1,000 acre site and this will be enormously impactful. I think the CEO, Pat Gelsinger, references this as silicone heartland because typically these plants with the supplier base create some level of co-location that we would -- that you've seen in Arizona and certain other markets, so this is incredibly impactful. It is a great move by the [Indecipherable] Administration. I think it will benefit certainly all of Ohio and much of the Midwest and I think it's a bit of a gamechanger for us. We're going to have more than 10,000 construction jobs on that site and roadway and water expansion and then ultimately, there will be 3,000 very high paying jobs in the plant itself, just with Intel. Again there is an expectation of other businesses coming in for co-location, significant other businesses. All of that will feed and fuel, I think what's already a very robust real estate market. There is going to be housing needs, additional transportation needs, the small business -- small businesses around these areas will do very, very well. So, it's a huge moment for us here in all of Ohio, certainly Central Ohio, but I think this has the potential to be enormous. If I reflect back in 2009 when I joined Huntington, this was [Indecipherable] and that term has receded significantly over the years and I think Intel is going to be a gamechanger in terms of technology in the region. And I'm very excited about what was going on. So again, kudos to Governor DeWine and his administration with Lieutenant Governor Jon Husted was enormously important here as well, but this came together incredibly efficient and quick fashion and there's insight about it on both the local favorite Columbus Dispatch as well as Time has a lead article featuring it. We're really, really pleased, and I believe this is again a huge moment for us and a game-changing moment for Ohio.

John Pancari
Analyst at Evercore ISI

Very helpful. Thank you, Steve.

Stephen D. Steinour
Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer at Huntington Bancshares

Thanks, John.

Operator

Thank you. Our final question today is from the line of Terry McEvoy with Stephens. Please proceed with your questions.

Terry McEvoy
Analyst at Stephens

Hi, thanks. I was hoping to get your thoughts on capital management and just appetite for share repurchase in the first half of 2022 with capital at about 9.3% at the end of the year.

Stephen D. Steinour
Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer at Huntington Bancshares

Yeah, it is a great question. Thanks and appreciate the chance to close on this one. We are really pleased with what we have done so far in the $800 million share repurchase authorization that we had, as we noted, consistent with our guidance [Indecipherable] $650 million of that through the end of 2021. I think as we go forward, our capital priorities have not changed. We're still very much focused on funding asset growth first supporting our dividend [Indecipherable] all other uses including this. So, as we see loan growth accelerating, what we [Indecipherable] put the capital back towards that [Indecipherable] share repurchases, we intend to be dynamic here, and also to think about in the context of our ongoing work around our next capital plan submission which will reset the balance of 2022 as well with the submission in early April. So, dynamic seizing opportunities here in the next couple of quarters [Indecipherable].

Terry McEvoy
Analyst at Stephens

Great. I'll end it there and let everybody get on with their day. Thanks, Zach, and thanks, Steve. Have a good day.

Zachary Wasserman
Senior Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer at Huntington Bancshares

Thanks, Terry.

Stephen D. Steinour
Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer at Huntington Bancshares

Thank you all for joining us today. We're very proud of our colleague's efforts to deliver a successful finish to '21 and we look forward to building on that as we enter the new year, have a great deal of confidence in our teams and what Huntington can deliver for our colleagues, customers, and shareholders over the course of '22. We have a deeply embedded stock ownership mentality, which aligns the interests of our Board, Management, and colleagues with our shareholders, as you would know, and thank you very much for your support and interest in Huntington. Have a great day everybody.

Operator

[Operator Closing Remarks]

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