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Rockwell Automation Q1 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Corporate Executives

  • Jessica Kourakos
    Head of Investor Relations
  • Blake Moret
    Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
  • Nick Gangestad
    Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Operator

Thank you for holding, and welcome to Rockwell Automation's Quarterly Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Jessica Kourakos, Head of Investor Relations. Ms. Kourakos, please go ahead.

Jessica Kourakos
Head of Investor Relations at Rockwell Automation

Thanks, Emma. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for Rockwell Automation's First Quarter Fiscal 2022 Earnings Release Conference Call. With me today is Blake Moret, our Chairman and CEO; and Nick Gangestad, our CFO. Our results were released earlier this morning and the press release and charts have been posted to our website. Both the press release and charts include, and our call today will reference, non-GAAP measures. Both the press release and charts include reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures. A webcast of this call will be available on our website for replay for the next 30 days. For your convenience, a transcript of our prepared remarks will also be available on our website at the conclusion of today's call.

Additional information and news about our company can also be found on Rockwell's Investor Relations Twitter feed using the handle at InvestorsROK; that's at InvestorsROK.

Before we get started, I need to remind you that our comments will include statements related to the expected future results of our company and are therefore forward-looking statements. Our actual results may differ materially from our projections due to a wide range of risks and uncertainties that are described in our earnings release and detailed in our SEC filings.

So, with that, I'll hand the call over to Blake.

Blake Moret
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Rockwell Automation

Thanks, Jessica, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. Let's turn to our first quarter results on Slide 3. Total orders grew by more than 40% to over $2.5 billion, once again, reflecting very strong demand across our portfolio of core automation and digital transformation solutions. Total revenue of $1.9 billion grew 19%. Organic sales grew 17% versus prior year better than our expectations despite significant supply chain challenges in the quarter. The manufacturing supply chain remains constrained due to extremely high levels of demand and persistent electronic component shortages. It's a very dynamic situation, and our global supply chain organization continues to navigate these challenges. We're taking a variety of actions, including qualifying additional semiconductor technology and investing in capacity to increase our supply chain resiliency and support our growth.

Turning now to our top line performance. Core automation sales and orders momentum was broad based across our product lines, including control, visualization network, motion, power, sensors and safety. In the Intelligent Devices business segment, organic sales increased 26% versus prior year even with significant headwinds from supply chain. Software & Control was also impacted by supply chain constraints, but organic sales growth of 8% was above our expectations. We also had very strong orders growth in the segment. Of note, Industrial PC orders at ASEM, our recent acquisition, were particularly strong and almost doubled from a year ago. In Lifecycle Services, organic sales increased 10% versus the prior year led by double-digit growth at Sensia in our Solutions business. Demand is strongly increasing in this segment as demonstrated by double-digit sequential orders growth and 1.38 book-to-bill for the segment.

Information Solutions and Connected Services grew double digits in both orders and revenue. Q1 sales were particularly strong across the entire Information Solutions portfolio as well as Kalypso's digital consulting services. Industrial cyber security demand was strong in the quarter and included a strategic win with one of the world's leading natural gas pipeline companies in North America. We also had a key win with one of the largest beverage manufacturers in EMEA, demonstrating how our industrial cyber business continues to create new ways for us to win. Our investments in the cloud are also showing very good traction. Another notable win in the quarter was with The Shyft Group formerly known as Spartan Motors. The Shyft Group is a global leader in the commercial vehicle industry and a big beneficiary of the EV and last-mile delivery trends. Here, Plex's smart manufacturing platform was chosen to enable best practices across their operations, reduce material costs, automate quality processes, all while supporting high-speed line deployments.

At Fiix, we had another great quarter with their ARR growing over 40% and over 600 new fixed customers added in just the last 12 months. In the quarter, Rockwell expanded its presence within Lucid Motors, one of the top up-and-coming luxury EV companies in the world. Lucid had already selected Rockwell's FactoryTalk software to manage production and is growing their Fiix subscription base to ensure readiness and facilitate skilled resource effectiveness. This is a great example of the synergies we are already seeing across our cloud and on-prem software portfolios, and the positive contributions they are making to our overall business. I'd also like to highlight the continued traction we see with our PTC partnership. The capabilities and versatility of the combined solution has contributed to our significant software portfolio differentiation and has become a great way to win with customers.

In summary, I'm very happy with how these digital offerings are contributing to our recurring revenue base, including contributions from our organically-developed software, PTC and our recent acquisitions. In the quarter, double -- in the quarter, total ARR grew by over 50% and organic ARR grew double-digits.

Let's now turn to Slide 4, where I'll provide a few highlights of our Q1 end market performance. Each of our industry segments shared strong double-digit year-over-year organic growth, and as we've said, our strong orders are reflective of underlying demand. Advanced orders for longer lead time products that are not immediately needed made up about 10% of the total. In our Discrete Industry segment, sales grew approximately 20% versus the prior year. Within this industry segment, automotive sales grew mid-teens led by a 50% increase in EV capital project activity around the world, and strong growth in EV battery led by our independent cart technology. Semiconductor sales grew over 25% in the quarter with strong double-digit growth in all regions. Significant greenfield project activity is leading to our strong growth at semiconductor-focused engineering firms and machine builders. E-commerce was our fastest-growing vertical with sales growing approximately 50% over the prior year. E-commerce orders included a series of multi-million dollar wins to automate new fulfillment centers throughout North America for a well-known e-commerce provider. We believe our strong differentiation in motion, including advanced material handling technology and support services are driving market share gains in this fast-growing vertical.

Turning now to our Hybrid Industry segment. The verticals in this segment also had a terrific quarter. Food and Beverage grew over 20% in Q1 with broad growth across the regions. Once again, skew expansion, end of line automation and the need for greater manufacturing flexibility are important trends requiring greater levels of automation. We believe the steady pipeline of greenfield and brownfield project opportunities, our deep relationships with machine builders and our strong technology differentiation are driving record demand in this key vertical. Life Sciences sales grew over 10% in Q1, off of an extremely strong quarter last year, and remains one of our fastest growing verticals in fiscal '22. We have significantly invested in this area of our business over the last few years and believe we are well positioned to gain more share through broader and deeper offerings and expertise. Our fastest growing vertical in the Hybrid segment this quarter was tire, which grew about 35% in the quarter. This is another great vertical that is investing heavily in innovation.

Turning to Process. This industry segment grew approximately 15% led by improving trends in upstream and midstream oil and gas. Our Sensia joint venture had strong sales and orders in the quarter led by strength in process automation and lift control solutions. Sensia's digitalization solutions are well suited to the energy industry's desire to improve productivity and extend the useful life of existing infrastructure, as well as the desire to use modern technology to improve safety and reduce environmental impact. As operating and capital budgets increasingly open up, we believe Sensia is well positioned for double-digit growth in fiscal '22.

Turning now to Slide 5, and our Q1 organic regional sales performance. North America organic sales grew by 16% versus the prior year with strong double-digit growth across all three industry segments. EMEA sales increased 15% driven by strength in food and beverage, and tire, and metals. Asia Pacific was our fastest growing region in Q1, growing 25% with broad-based growth led by semiconductor and food and beverage. In China, we saw double-digit growth driven by strength in tire, food and beverage, chemical and mass transit.

Let's now turn to Slide 6 to review highlights for the full year outlook. We now expect orders for the year to exceed $9 billion, which is above what we expected just a few months ago and really taking our business to a whole new level. We continue to expect total reported sales growth of 17.5%, including 15.5% organic growth versus the prior year. Our projections reflect a detailed review of supply chain constraints by supplier and product line over the course of the year, but as we've said before, these constraints remain very dynamic. We continue to expect double-digit growth in both core automation as well as Information Solutions and Connected Services.

Acquisitions are off to a good start and expected to contribute 2 points of profitable top line growth. We are maintaining our margin expectation and adjusted EPS target of $10.80 for the year, which represents about 15% growth at the midpoint of the range compared to the prior year. I should add that we continue to expect another year of double-digit annual recurring revenue growth, including our recent Plex acquisition, which adds approximately $170 million to our ARR totals in fiscal '22.

A more detailed view into our outlook by end market is found on Slide 7. I won't go into the details on this slide, but as you can see, there is no change to the outlook for our three industry segments.

With that, let me now turn it over to Nick who will elaborate on our Q1 results and financial outlook for fiscal '22. Nick?

Nick Gangestad
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Rockwell Automation

Thank you, Blake, and good morning, everyone. I'll start on Slide 8, first quarter key financial information. First quarter reported sales were up 19% over last year. This is slightly better for the quarter than we expected and indicated in November. We saw some improvements in the timing of electronic component shipments from our suppliers that resulted in a stronger first quarter than we anticipated. Q1 organic sales were up 17% and acquisitions contributed 2.6 points to total growth. Currency translation decreased sales by under 1 point. Segment operating margin was 19.1% better than expected and improved sequentially from Q4. Our stronger sales performance improved our margins in the quarter. Versus last year, our margins declined 70 basis points due to higher planned spend and negative price cost, both in line with expectations. These were both partially offset by the impact of higher sales. Corporate and other expense was $29 million.

Our adjusted EPS in the quarter was $2.14. Q1 of fiscal year '21 included a non-recurring favorable legal settlements of $0.45. Excluding the prior-year favorable legal settlement, adjusted EPS grew 11% versus the prior year. I'll cover a year-over-year Adjusted EPS bridge on a later slide. The adjusted effective tax rate for the first quarter was 15.3% and in line with the prior year. Free cash flow was negative by $50 million in the quarter and down compared to prior year due to the payout of the fiscal '21 bonus, and increase in our working capital to serve our strong demand and higher planned tax payments. One additional item not shown on the slide, we repurchased 151,000 shares in the quarter at a cost of $49 million. On December 31st, $503 million remained available under our repurchase authorization.

Slide 9 provides the sales and margin performance overview of our three operating segments. Total reported sales grew double-digit across all three of our segments. Intelligent Devices grew organic sales by 26%. Compared to last year, Intelligent Devices margin expanded 430 basis points to 23.7% on higher sales, despite a price cost headwind. Software & Control organic sales were up 8%. Segment margins for this segment declined 730 basis points compared to last year with higher planned investment spend and the impact of acquisition integration costs, partially offset by higher organic sales. This segment also saw a negative price cost in the quarter. Lifecycle Services grew organic sales by 10%. Segment margin was 5.5% and declined 340 basis points, driven by higher planned investment spend, unfavorable project mix and higher input costs, partially offset by higher sale. Margin is expected to grow through the balance of the year as a result of strong sales growth and a higher margin backlog.

The next slide, 10, provides the adjusted EPS walk from Q1 fiscal '21 to Q1 fiscal '22. Starting on the left, core performance was up about $0.55 on a 16.8% organic sales increase. Approximately, $0.20 was related to temporary pay actions that were benefiting the prior year and have since been reversed. This is the last quarter that we have this in our prior year comparables as a headwind. Currency was slightly unfavorable by about $0.05. Acquisitions had a negative impact of $0.10 mostly related to Plex. We continue to expect that Plex, including the impact of interest expense, will be breakeven in fiscal year '22 EPS and up $0.15 from fiscal year '21. As a reminder, our prior year EPS included a non-recurring legal settlement gain of $0.45. This brings us to our total EPS of $2.14.

Let's move onto the next slide, 11, guidance for fiscal '22. We are reaffirming our sales guidance of about $8.2 billion in fiscal '22, up 17.5% at the midpoint of the range. We expect organic sales growth to be in a range of 14% to 17% and 15.5% at the midpoint of our range. This guidance is based on our current view of electronic component availability. By quarter, we see Q2 sales improving sequentially low-to-mid single digits with continued improvement in the second half of the year. Our first half is expected to be in line with our initial projection with our first quarter being a little stronger and our second quarter coming in a little lower due to timing of electronic component availability.

We are pleased with our supply chain team's ability to navigate through this dynamic environment and keep the focus on serving our customers. We expect full year segment operating margin to be about 21.5%. We continue to expect slightly positive price cost for the full year. We expect the first half impact of price cost on margins to be dilutive by approximately 200 basis points, and that the margin impact in the second half from price cost will be accretive by over 100 basis points. Given the first half of the year negative impact of price cost, we expect margins in the second quarter to be similar to Q1 margins with the positive impact from higher sales being offset by higher sequential input cost. We expect the phasing of our price increases along with higher sales will significantly benefit margins in the second half of the year.

Our full year view on margins and the impact of price cost on those margins, remains unchanged. We continue to expect full year core earnings conversion of between 30% and 35%, and we're on track to grow our R&D and other growth-related investments by double-digits. These investments will position us well as we drive sustained growth in '22 and beyond. We continue to expect the full year adjusted effective tax rate be around 17%. We do not anticipate any material discrete items to impact tax in fiscal '22. We're also reaffirming our adjusted EPS guidance of $10.50 to $11.10. At the midpoint of the range, this represents 15% adjusted EPS growth.

Finally, we are projecting full year fiscal '22 free cash flow conversion of about 90% of adjusted income. This reflects a $155 million bonus payout made in quarter 1 for the fiscal '21 performance, $165 million of capital expenditures and funding higher levels of working capital to support significantly higher sales growth. Our working capital target is aligned with our historical amount of about 12% of total sales. A few additional comments on fiscal '22 guidance. Corporate and other expense remains around $125 million. Net interest expense for fiscal '22 is expected to be about $115 million and we're assuming average diluted shares outstanding of 117.5 million shares. Finally, on capital deployment, no change to our strategy or fiscal '22 priorities. Our first priority is organic growth. After that, we focus capital deployment on inorganic activities, then, we focus on capital returns to shareholders through our dividend, and then, share repurchases, and we continue to focus on delevering in fiscal year '22.

With that, I'll turn it back over to Blake for some closing remarks before we start Q&A.

Blake Moret
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Rockwell Automation

Thanks, Nick. Strong order trends and record backlog underpin a robust top line outlook for fiscal '22. As we said last quarter, we are making investments in our capacity, technology and people to support our future growth. We are investing in our operations to expand capacity by $500 million per quarter, while at the same time, increasing the resiliency of our supply chains. We made significant progress in the quarter to release FactoryTalk's SaaS offerings, including new Plex Smart Manufacturing platform capabilities and we've expanded Fiix's applied AI capabilities. We also released the next version of Emulate3D to further our capabilities in creating and operating digital twins of production systems. A significant release of new Logix functionality is scheduled for next quarter. Importantly, last year's accelerated organic investments have allowed us to release new secure remote access functionality and cloud-based data management of automation design information earlier than originally anticipated.

In summary, Q1 was a great start to the year. We've been very busy capitalizing on the opportunities we see today, while at the same time, building for the future. I want to take a moment to recognize the people in our organization and the tremendous work that went into these results during especially challenging times. We're making significant investments in existing and new talent and are empowering them with the technologies and resources to be successful. We continue to encourage fresh ideas from across the organization and look at ways to increase our value through the customer's eyes. I feel confident that investments in automation and digital transformation have never been more top of mind than they are today.

As a pure play leader devoted exclusively to these areas, we think our agility, our differentiated portfolio of products and services, our significant domain expertise and our ecosystem of best-in-class partners make us the best positioned company to benefit from what should be a significant multi-year growth cycle.

Let me now pass the baton back to Jessica to begin the Q&A session.

Jessica Kourakos
Head of Investor Relations at Rockwell Automation

Thanks, Blake. Before we start the Q&A, I just want to say that we would like to get to as many of you as possible, so please limit yourself to one question and a quick follow-up. Thank you. Emma, let's take our first question.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Scott Davis with Melius Research. Your line is now open.

Scott Davis
Analyst at Melius Research

Hey, good morning, everybody.

Blake Moret
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Rockwell Automation

Hey, Scott.

Nick Gangestad
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Rockwell Automation

Good morning, Scott.

Scott Davis
Analyst at Melius Research

Jessica, and everybody. But kind of -- like I wanted to ask about this Emulate3D, the digital twin stuff, is that becoming the new kind of the standard to do a full kind of factory simulation digitally before you break ground? Is that becoming the norm or is that still kind of tip of the iceberg stuff?

Blake Moret
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Rockwell Automation

I think -- Scott, I think, we're still climbing the adoption curve there, but everybody is aware of the promise of being able to simulate production systems before actually starting to run material through the line, and this is one of those areas that I think the pandemic accelerated because you couldn't get everybody that you traditionally would have wanted to be on site, shoulder-to-shoulder on a line commissioning a new line. And so, the ability to go and to digitize your system to be able to tune it, to be able to get a good picture of what should happen potentially much further down the path without actually having to have people together and running product through a line in the traditional way. So, we see the most advanced companies well into proofs of concept. We are heavily involved with them on that.

And I should add, this is an area that the Kalypso acquisition, and then, followed by the more recent AVATA acquisition has really helped to complement the technology that we have with Emulate3D and some of the new Logix capabilities to have the people who can describe that holistically at the higher levels of the organization that are required to sign off on that sort of initiative has really been helpful for us.

Scott Davis
Analyst at Melius Research

Okay. That's helpful. And then, Blake, historically in the upcycle, you always have this unfavorable project mix, but there has got to be some supply and demand end balances here, where supplying into these projects is going to be harder and harder just given how many projects there are, is there a scenario that this cycle is a little bit different that you can price those projects and the bids more aggressively and have less of an unfavorable mix impact or is that just not how it works?

Blake Moret
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Rockwell Automation

No. I think -- a couple of things. First of all, I do think that this cycle is going to be a little bit unusual. Now, there is always some differences from one cycle to the next, but I think, this one may be a little bit elongated because with the amount of longer-term capital investment in verticals-wide semiconductor, where that new capacity is not going to come on for a while, where they still have to build an ecosystem of local partners around these big fabs, I think, we could see a cycle that actually lasts a little bit longer than maybe the mean in the past.

In terms of demand and being able to supply into this, right now, the bottleneck is with chips. We're working through that, but I still think that the material is getting out there and we are going to see the completion of these projects. I can't -- I haven't seen any evidence that people are not moving forward with their expansion plans because of supply chain constraints. They're slowing them down but everybody is trying to come out of the pandemic better positioned than their competitors in terms of capacity and new offerings, and I don't see that changing.

Scott Davis
Analyst at Melius Research

Okay. Good luck, Blake. Thank you.

Blake Moret
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Rockwell Automation

Thanks.

Scott Davis
Analyst at Melius Research

Thanks a lot.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Obin with Bank of America. Your line is now open.

Andrew Obin
Analyst at Bank of America

Hi, guys, Good morning.

Blake Moret
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Rockwell Automation

Hey, Andrew.

Nick Gangestad
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Rockwell Automation

Hi, Andrew.

Andrew Obin
Analyst at Bank of America

Just first question. You guys sort of said that first quarter was better than expected and second quarter was little bit weaker, and I think, you cited price cost and supply constraints. I guess, the question we're hearing is that for a lot of companies actually the fourth quarter seems to be a big pinch point and you guys managed to do better than expected in the fourth quarter. So, what -- specifically, I'm just trying to figure out how it is you were able to get stuff out of the door in your first fiscal quarter and why would it get worse in the second quarter. Thank you.

Blake Moret
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Rockwell Automation

So, Andrew, we have a broad base of suppliers. Obviously, it goes well beyond just the semiconductor suppliers, but even within that category, we're managing a broad base of suppliers because virtually all of our intelligent devices are intelligent, they have semiconductor-based technology. We are in daily contact with our key suppliers through our supply chain organization and in conversations that include me and my senior team, and basically, we were able to get a few more chips in the first quarter than we had originally forecast, but we are expecting the second quarter to be a little bit lighter. It's a dynamic situation, but the fundamental, I guess, framework you should think about is that with the enormous backlog that we have, the new incoming orders are coming in on top of that. So, the demand is not the constraint and we don't expect it to be for quite some time to come.

Nick, anything to add to that?

Nick Gangestad
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Rockwell Automation

Yeah. Our view of what we were going to be getting for the first half of the year from -- for chips that's our most significant component, that just hasn't changed. Some of them came in a little earlier, and we were able to shift things out in the first quarter. The first half view of what we were going to get just did not change, Andrew.

Andrew Obin
Analyst at Bank of America

No. That makes sense. And maybe a follow-up question on Software & Control. You highlighted higher planned investment spend, can you just -- versus your expectation, I just wanted to figure out where was the margin on Software & Control versus your expectation for the quarter, and how much of this investment spend was planned and how much of it was discretionary in the quarter, and what were you spending money on? Thank you so much.

Nick Gangestad
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Rockwell Automation

Yeah. Andrew, it's -- the Software & Control margins were actually just a little bit better than what we had in our internal planning. The investment spending is right in line with that total -- for the total company, where three months ago, we said that we'd be upping our investment spend by approximately $200 million. Our first quarter we executed exactly on that plan to roughly $50 million a quarter over each quarter of last year that we're increasing and that's spending is that plan.

We were also impacted in the margin in the first quarter by our continued spend on the acquisition integration costs. We expect that impact on the margin will diminish in the coming quarters as we work through that -- the integration. So, for the full year, Andrew, I know you didn't ask it quite this way, but I'll -- we think the margins are going to continue to grow in Software & Control. We don't think it's going to be of our total company margin expansion of 150 basis points. We largely think of Software in control -- & Control as largely flat compared to last year. And the -- most of our margin expansion coming from Intelligent Device and Lifecycle Services.

Now specifically what we were spending on -- we were spending on product development, software development in Software & Control. We also are spending more on our customer-facing selling resources, and Software & Control is one piece of that as we are building more specialization in how we sell in some of the Software & Control products. So, those are a couple of things that we increased our spending on. Blake will add a little more detail on that.

Blake Moret
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Rockwell Automation

Yeah. Andrew, just specifically in terms of the pinch within Software & Control, as we've talked about cloud-native software development in multiple products within the FactoryTalk Hub that we explored a little bit during Investor Day has also new visualization tools, hardware and software, that are under development, and then, new hardware functionality around the Logix control system. We're going to have major new product releases in all three of those areas in the next 12 months.

Andrew Obin
Analyst at Bank of America

Thank you. This is super useful and it was fun to hear Jim last night compliment you on your software growth as well. Thanks a lot.

Blake Moret
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Rockwell Automation

Yeah. Thank you. The PTC relationship is going well.

Operator

And your next question...

Jessica Kourakos
Head of Investor Relations at Rockwell Automation

Emma, next question?

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research. Your line is open.

Jeffrey Sprague
Analyst at Vertical Research

Thank you. Good morning, everyone.

Blake Moret
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Rockwell Automation

Hey, Jeff.

Nick Gangestad
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Rockwell Automation

Hey, Jeff.

Jeffrey Sprague
Analyst at Vertical Research

Hey. Good to catch up with everybody. Hey, can we just delve a little bit more into the sequentials? And I know we touched on it a little bit on the prior questions, but just thinking about margins being flat sequentially on the higher revenues sequentially, is -- so you addressed the availability, but is price cost actually worse in the second quarter also, or is there something else going on? And incentives or investment spend or something like that that would create that kind of lack of leverage on sequential revenue growth?

Nick Gangestad
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Rockwell Automation

Yeah, Jeff. In terms of price cost, you're exactly right and like you'll see a rising there. Price costs were negatively impacting us in the first quarter. They will even more negatively impact us in the second quarter, bringing that first half impact to that roughly 200 basis point negative impact on margin. Then, from there, it starts to withstand the price costs and that will be getting substantially better in the third and fourth quarter on price costs, and that's largely how we had this planned out at the beginning of the year and what we've shared three months ago.

I think, the only dynamic that's been happening throughout in the first three months is we are seeing costs go higher and we're seeing our planned price actions go higher as well. So, both of those moving in tandem to keep our net price cost exactly what we said three months ago.

Jeffrey Sprague
Analyst at Vertical Research

And so, the expected relief in the second half is a function of continued price mounting and kind of anniversarying? Are you baking in actually cost relief in the back half? Maybe you could just talk...

Nick Gangestad
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Rockwell Automation

No. No. I mean, of course, Jeff, that would be great to think that will happen, but we're not planning for cost relief. We are planning for continued cost inflation going in. It will be the price part and the phasing in of our pricing that will be positively impacting us in the second half of the year.

Jeffrey Sprague
Analyst at Vertical Research

And then, could you also just separately address how to think about the orders? And the nature of my question is, 9 billion of orders, 10% long lead time stuff. So, let's call it 90% shorter cycle orders. Maybe you want to use a different term, but that would kind of imply little over $8 billion in orders on the short cycle deliverable stuff. That's sort of where your revenue guide is, plus or minus a little bit. Is that the way to think about just kind of the reaction function here between orders and conversion to sales or -- I'm sure it's a little bit more complicated than that, but just maybe frame up how orders convert to sales and if maybe that's changing because of the supply chain and other disruptions that we're dealing with.

Blake Moret
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Rockwell Automation

Yeah. Jeff, the other main component I'd say of the equation is the very large annuarying backlog that we have there. So, this orders -- continued orders growth comes on top of historic level to backlog and even the longer lead-time orders, and I'll describe that a little bit. Those will likely ship -- or a large part of that will ship in the fiscal year. So, when we say longer lead time, that doesn't necessarily mean it's pushed out beyond the end of fiscal '22. To be sure, we're going to have very large backlog in any scenario at the end of fiscal '22 setting up for fiscal '23, but let me give an example of what those advanced orders would be.

So, you think about an OEM that has big backlog in their own shop of machines to be built and they would typically buy, let's say, three months of components from Rockwell, controllers, and drives, and servo amplifiers, and so on. Because of the longer lead times, they may extend them out to six months worth of component orders that they're placing on us. So, that's the example where they have the demand, it's not speculative, they just increase their advanced orders in that respect, and we look carefully at both that, customer demand, as well as distributor order patterns. We're working closely with them and that gives us the confidence to say that this is representative of underlying demand that goes right to the end user.

Jeffrey Sprague
Analyst at Vertical Research

Great. Thanks for the color. I'll pass the baton.

Blake Moret
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Rockwell Automation

Yeah. Thanks, Jeff.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Josh Pokrzywinski with Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.

Joshua Pokrzywinski
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Hi, good morning, guys.

Blake Moret
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Rockwell Automation

Hey, Josh.

Nick Gangestad
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Rockwell Automation

Hey, Josh.

Joshua Pokrzywinski
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

So, maybe just on the Intelligent Devices margins first. I know it's covered some ground there, but anything that you can tell us, Nick, about -- is there kind of inventory pre-positioned just waiting for chips or something else that kind of use the margin with this first wave? Like price cost getting worst here in the second quarter, is it really as common, I think, across the industrial universe just because price has been so high? Like anything that sort of gave you the kind of initial advantage when you were able to get that extra supply in this quarter, that goes away or is it just inflation?

Nick Gangestad
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Rockwell Automation

As the single biggest thing that was driving that margin expansion in Intelligent Device and we had high expectations for Intelligent Device margin as well in the first quarter, but what drove it even higher is the higher sales than what we were expecting. And that's why I'm guiding that we're not planning margin expansion there in the total company sequentially, because what we see for a bit of benefit from higher revenues in the second quarter as the low-to-mid single digits, I talked about, that will be largely offset by price costs getting a little worse in the second quarter.

Now, what I would just describe in terms of our overall pricing philosophy here is, we are seeking to price in a way to offset our input costs and we're not pricing in a way to generate even more substantial profits after that, but to largely offset the input cost inflation that we're seeing. We see opportunities for -- probably can be using our pricing to be gaining share around the world and we are basically trying to offset it. And that's why at three months ago and now, we still see it slightly as a benefit to earnings per share, but not a substantial difference there between input costs and price.

Blake Moret
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Rockwell Automation

Yeah, it's in line with the idea that we've talked of accelerating profitable growth, and we remain committed to the idea and are seeing this play out that nothing expands margins like top line growth. And so, we think that we're striking a good balance between the near-term profitability and the investment to create an even brighter future.

Joshua Pokrzywinski
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Got it. That's helpful. And then, just a follow-up on Jeff's question on orders. Interesting, that stat on the longer lead-time stuff. Is it really a big part of the equation? It sort of suggests that customers are ordering earlier to try to secure their spot in the line. So, I guess, that's a good thing, but like, is the only thing that's sort of delaying kind of convergence of orders and sales on what should be a shorter cycle business just supply chain or is there some other kind of delay in the process, labor or something on the customers' end that kind of prevents us from converging near term?

Blake Moret
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Rockwell Automation

Josh, it's supply chain constraints. We've got this enormous demand that's a result, I think, of three basic things. First of all, it's the secular trends that you're seeing play out across industries and geography, plus seeing a higher degree of importance on automation and digital transformation than ever before. So, it's secular. It's also cyclical. We are still early in what we believe is going to be a multi-year period of economic expansion. And then, finally, it's our position in this market, and I think, all three of those things are driving the demand.

Nick Gangestad
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Rockwell Automation

Hey, Josh, one thing I'll add is, we've invested in our own internal capacity that we do not see that as a constraint. So, as Blake said, it's that component availability and getting that, and we're equipped and ready to go for that as that ramps up.

Joshua Pokrzywinski
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Yeah.

Blake Moret
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Rockwell Automation

And I -- just a final point just to summarize. Fiscal '22 sales would be higher were it not for the supply chain constraints. So, we're managing, as Nick said, our capacity, our labor based on very dynamic practices kind of hand-to-hand around the world, making sure that we're acquiring talent, keeping talent, paying competitive wages. All those things, we're keeping ahead of it.

Joshua Pokrzywinski
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Great. Appreciate the color. Best of luck, guys.

Blake Moret
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Rockwell Automation

Yeah. Thanks, Josh.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell with Barclays. Your line is now open.

Julian Mitchell
Analyst at Barclays

Hi, good morning. Just wanted to circle back on the orders outlook again. So, is this sort of assumption backing into that 9 billion-plus number for the year? You probably have decent double-digit order growth year-on-year in Q2, and then, maybe it's down year-on-year in the back half as supply chain conditions get easier, but you've got tougher comps as well, is that the -- sort of the right way to think about orders over the balance of this year?

Nick Gangestad
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Rockwell Automation

Hi, Julian. We -- based on what we're seeing and what we're expecting, we do think we are going to see order growth in our second quarter, a year-on-year order growth. And then, second half of the year, you can do the whole math of calculating what that would mean -- of what that means if we're at 9 billion. Like, whether it's up year-on-year or down a little, I think that's a little too fine of a point, but what we're seeing in second quarter so far, we think that that's in line with that and we think it's going to be growth year-on-year.

Blake Moret
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Rockwell Automation

Yeah. The other point I would just add is, we've continued to see this order momentum for multiple quarters now and the trends are extending into January. So, we see it again as reflective of underlying demand in multiple industries and we can point to the specific investments based on the large greenfields that have been announced as well as on the ground individual salespeople, from distributors, from our own people who were directly involved in these projects. So, we feel very good about the overall demand.

Julian Mitchell
Analyst at Barclays

That's helpful. Thank you. And then, just my second question on the price cost aspect. So, you mentioned some price -- some extra price increases, but you've left the organic sales guide in aggregate unchanged. So, does that mean that pricing for the year as a whole is still not that different from that 2% type tailwind you've mentioned before? And then, maybe just to clarify, when you talk about price cost, is that cost aspect solely sort of freight and logistics, and components and labor is kind of separate from that?

Nick Gangestad
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Rockwell Automation

I'm going to take the second part of the question first, Julian. When we talk and think about price cost, it is large -- it is exactly what you're seeing, what we're paying for all the inputs, as well as logistics costs. Labor is something that we've largely vanning to around productivity and what we're doing there to improve the efficiency and productivity of our operations, often, are incented to more than offset what we see of wage inflation there. So, when we talk input costs, we're in the cost -- price cost inflation, it's input costs and logistics.

Now, in terms of pricing and our overall guide, yes, we have chosen to keep our organic growth guide the same. Three months ago, we announced they indicated a 2% -- roughly 2% price growth that we were planning for the full year. We think that's going to go up. I'm not going to put a new number on it, because we -- I mean, it's a dynamic situation with price and cost, but we see that number going up. We're focusing more on the net, keeping those plans in balance, and what the two parts of that equation are on. So, we kept the guides the same. I think, it's likely in one quarter from now, things like FX, things like price will be incorporating all of that into the guide.

Julian Mitchell
Analyst at Barclays

Great, thank you.

Blake Moret
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Rockwell Automation

Thanks, Julian.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Brandon Luke [Phonetic] with Bernstein. Your line is now open.

Brandon Luke
Analyst at Bernstein Research

Good morning, all. Thanks for taking my question.

Blake Moret
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Rockwell Automation

Hey, Brandon.

Brandon Luke
Analyst at Bernstein Research

As you talk to customers, are you seeing any early indications of shifting manufacturing footprints driven on the back of the extended supply chain crisis or is this really more of a capex recovery story and share gains? How are you looking at growth projections?

Blake Moret
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Rockwell Automation

I think, it's new investment. I would not look at it as shifting manufacturing, although, I think, manufacturing in North America is probably a larger percentage of our company's global investment than it has been traditionally. So, I don't see people closing plants in Asia, for instance, and bringing them back as the majority of what's driving the demand, but I do see, as people are planning new capacity, whether it's brownfield or greenfields or upgrades adding digitization solutions to existing capacity, I see North America and that obviously is our strongest market as being account size beneficiaries. So, automation in general, as I said before, from a secular standpoint, is increasing. Then, in the cycle, it's still early and our position in high-growth, high investment areas of both geography and technology are positive and what are driving a lot of this outlook.

Brandon Luke
Analyst at Bernstein Research

Execllent. Thank you.

Blake Moret
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Rockwell Automation

Thanks, Brandon.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Steve Tusa with JPMorgan. Your line is now open.

Steve Tusa
Analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Hey guys, good morning.

Blake Moret
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Rockwell Automation

Hey, Steve.

Nick Gangestad
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Rockwell Automation

Good morning, Steve.

Steve Tusa
Analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Congrats on a -- on good execution here. They're kind of above seasonal, so it looks like you guys shoot there a little bit of that backlog at least. I just wanted to make that clear on the comments you just made. You're guiding forex at zero, I think, you'll have a headway. If you snap the line today, what's that headwind on forex? I would assume that that would be a headwind for the year.

Nick Gangestad
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Rockwell Automation

Yeah, Steve. We -- if I snap the line earlier this week, it would be between 1% and 2% negative impact. We chose -- I chose not to be updating because it's volatile and we have enough volatility. I didn't want to be updating for just one component and not updating for all. So, we have FX that's -- if I snap the chart going right on, a little bit worse than our initial guide, we have price that is better than our initial guide and we have input costs that are higher than our initial guide. All in, we think that leads to an aggregate where we think our top line growth and EPS growth is -- that we said three months ago still make the most sense.

Steve Tusa
Analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Right, right, right. Okay. Got it. And then, how much -- I have like $35 million for Plex revenues in the quarter and then, what were orders for Plex side, I -- is there some sort of deferred revenue kind of booking dynamic there? I'm not a software guy, so I feel like every time our companies do a software deal, there is like a bunch of orders that flow through in the first quarter. Can you just talk to revenues and orders at Plex?

Nick Gangestad
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Rockwell Automation

Yeah. Your numbers on Plex are just on -- in terms of revenue. That's exactly where they were. Orders were substantially higher. My ballpark looking at it is about 20% higher than what our revenue was.

Steve Tusa
Analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Okay. So, it's not -- but you got a huge number, though it's not like you didn't rebook anything there in orders for them?

Blake Moret
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Rockwell Automation

No...

Nick Gangestad
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Rockwell Automation

No, no, no.

Steve Tusa
Analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Yeah. Okay. And then, just one last one on kind of the back half of the year and anything to talk about as far as -- to keep in mind for third or fourth -- third and fourth quarter dynamics?

Nick Gangestad
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Rockwell Automation

Yeah. I mean, the biggest two things, Steve, are what I've already talked about. In terms of revenue, we see continued sequential improvement as we are estimating and improved access to electronic components as we progress into our second half. In terms of margin and profitability, the single biggest dynamic is -- that's going to be driving the margin up is the flip on price cost from negative to positive in the second half. And then, also benefiting in the second half is the improved leverage with the added sales that we'd be having. Those -- that's, Steve, the biggest dynamics going on in the second half. There isn't another big thing going on there.

Blake Moret
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Rockwell Automation

Yeah. And I would just say, continued very, very strong backlog. So, just simple math of what we shipped and what we booked indicates the backlog remains and EBIT growth. So, that remains healthy.

Steve Tusa
Analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Awesome. Thanks for all the details. Appreciate it.

Nick Gangestad
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Rockwell Automation

Yeah.

Blake Moret
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Rockwell Automation

Thanks, Steve.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Andy Kaplowitz with Citigroup. Your line is now open.

Andy Kaplowitz
Analyst at Smith Barney Citigroup

Hey, good morning, guys.

Blake Moret
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Rockwell Automation

Hey, Andy.

Nick Gangestad
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Rockwell Automation

Hey.

Andy Kaplowitz
Analyst at Smith Barney Citigroup

Blake, you mentioned China up strong double-digits in Q1 and Asia-Pacific actually led your global growth. I know you sort of ease the comparisons in Asia-Pacific, but I think, you've been talking about changing the way you're going to market there and you're making investments in the region. So, as Q1 results -- is Q1 a result of those efforts? And then, obviously, there seems to be some macro risk in the region. So, could you give us a little more color into what you're seeing there?

Blake Moret
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Rockwell Automation

Sure. Just specifically on China, if we look at the verticals that contributed to that strong double-digit growth, there was tire, which, in general, our force continues to be a great vertical and there's a lot of tire activity complementing the EV activity going on in China, and we're a beneficiary of that. Food and beverage is an area where -- that worldwide is our single biggest vertical, and we're -- we've had some great recent traction within China in food and beverage, chemical, and then, mass transit. And so, these are industries that have generally been pretty good for us in China.

And when I talk about new ways to get to market, it's really complementing our traditional distribution, but we've also given our local leadership more empowerment to make investments that they see are appropriate. We've had relatively lower share in China. We think, by doing basic things correctly, there's lots of room to run and it's a combination of our core products, as well as the new ways to win in Information Solutions and Connected Services, and those are really seen as a calling card getting into customers, even win their installed base might be with competitive product, it's a way for engaging high-level decision-makers as we bring that new value to them.

And those companies across food and beverage and Life Sciences and EV, they're all intensely interested in climbing the product productivity curve fast, and so, that's where we see particular endorsement of our software, which is a strong contributor in China as well as new disruptive technology like Independent Cart, which we continue to win some very large orders in China based on Independent Cart, particularly in EV and battery assembly.

Andy Kaplowitz
Analyst at Smith Barney Citigroup

Thanks for that, Blake. And then, Nick, I know you didn't change your overall sales growth forecast. I mean, if I look, though, at the pieces of the end markets, it looks like you've raised a little bit e-commerce, Life Sciences, oil and gas and chemicals. So, if you sort of put that all together, I think, last quarter you told us that even with supply chain issues, you still felt relatively confident about your range even at the high end, does the sort of implicit changes in these end markets that you made here this quarter suggest that you might even have more confidence, especially given the orders that you just recorded in Q1?

Nick Gangestad
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Rockwell Automation

We -- Andy, we remain confident that we're guiding exactly where we think it will be, but those small things that you were talking about, those are like more on the fringe that we think our guidance is based far less of a view of demand and far more by what we see of our ability to be procuring components, and that view has not changed and we continue to think where we're guiding is exactly what we're going to be able to deliver this year.

Andy Kaplowitz
Analyst at Smith Barney Citigroup

Thanks, guys.

Blake Moret
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Rockwell Automation

Thanks, Andy.

Operator

That concludes today's question-and-answer session. Ms. Kourakos, I turn the call back to you.

Jessica Kourakos
Head of Investor Relations at Rockwell Automation

Thanks, Emma. Thanks, everyone. That concludes today's call. We appreciate your support and look forward to talking to you soon. Have a great day.

Operator

[Operator Closing Remarks]

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