Microchip Technology Q3 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
February 2, 2022

There are 13 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good day, everyone, and welcome to Microchip's Third Quarter Fiscal 2022 Financial Results. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Microchip's Chief Financial Officer, Mr. Eric Bjornholt. Please go ahead, sir.

Speaker 1

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. During the course of this conference call, we will be making projections and other forward looking statements Regarding future events or the future financial performance of the company, we wish to caution you that such statements are predictions and that actual events or results may differ materially. We refer you to our press release as of today as well as our recent filings with the SEC that identify important risk factors that may impact Microchip's business and results of operations. In attendance with me today are Ganesh Murali, Microchip's President and CEO Steve Sanghi, Microchip's Executive Chair And Sajid Doudi, Microchip's Head of Investor Relations. I will comment on our Q3 fiscal year 2022 financial performance.

Speaker 1

Ganesh will then provide commentary on our results and discuss the current business environment as well as our guidance, and Steve will provide an update on our cash return strategy. We will then be available to respond to specific investor and analyst questions. We are including information in our press release and this conference call on various GAAP and non GAAP measures. We have posted a full GAAP to non GAAP reconciliation on the Investor Relations page for our website at www.microchip.com and included reconciliation information in our press release, which we believe you will find useful when comparing GAAP to non GAAP results. We have also posted a summary of our outstanding debt and leverage metrics on our website.

Speaker 1

I will now go through some of the operating results, including net sales, gross margin and operating expenses. Other than net sales, I will be referring to these results On a non GAAP basis, which is based on expenses prior to the effects of our acquisition activities, share based compensation and certain other adjustments as described in our press release. Net sales in the December quarter were $1,760,000,000 which was up 6.5% sequentially and up 30% compared to the December quarter of fiscal 2021. We have posted a summary of our GAAP net sales by product line and geography as well as our total end market demand on our website for your reference. On a non GAAP basis, gross margins were a record at 66.1 percent and operating income was a record 44.6%.

Speaker 1

Non GAAP net income was a record $681,700,000 Our non GAAP cash tax rate was 6.7% in the December quarter. Non GAAP earnings per diluted share was at the high end of our guidance and was a record $1.20 On a GAAP basis, in the December quarter, gross margins were a record at 65.6 percent and include the impact of $8,400,000 of share based compensation expense. Total operating expenses were $638,300,000 and include acquisition intangible amortization of $215,700,000 Special income of $300,000 $3,200,000 of acquisition related and other costs and share based compensation of $42,500,000 GAAP net income was $352,800,000 or $0.62 per diluted share and was negatively impacted by the GAAP loss Our December quarter GAAP tax expense was impacted by a variety of factors, most notably the tax expense recorded from truing up estimated taxes to actual amounts based on tax returns filed during the quarter. Our inventory balance at December 31, 2021 was 768,200,000 We had 116 days of inventory at the end of the quarter, which was up 4 days from the prior quarter's level. Our levels of raw materials and work in progress increased in the quarter, which helps position us for increased production we are expecting from our internal factories and helps buffer us against unexpected shortages or changes in material lead times.

Speaker 1

The days of inventory on our balance sheet Go up with our gross margin improvement with each 100 basis points of gross margin improvement translating into approximately 2 to 3 days of increased inventory on Balance sheet. The carrying cost of our inventory has been and will be increasing due to rising input costs from our supply chain. We are continuing to ramp capacity in our internal and external factories, so we can ship as much product as possible to support customer requirements. Inventory at our distributors in the December quarter was at 19 days, which is a record low level and in line with where it was at the end of the prior quarter. During the December 2021 quarter, we achieved the milestone of becoming an investment grade rated company.

Speaker 1

This is a goal we have been pursuing since we acquired Microsemi in May of 2018, and it positions us well for our capital return strategy that we detailed for investors at our Investor and Analyst Day back in November. In the December quarter, we exchanged a total of 96,200,000 Principal value of 2025, 2027 and 2,030 7 convertible subordinated notes for cash and shares of our common stock. We used cash generation during the quarter to fund the principal amount of the convertible debt exchanges, and we believe that these transactions will benefit stockholders by significantly reducing share count dilution to the extent our stock price appreciates over time. The principal amount of convertible debt on our balance sheet at December 31 was $903,000,000 compared to $4,481,000,000 at the beginning Calendar 2020, putting our overall capital structure in a much better long term position. During the December We also refinanced our revolving line of credit to be in line with our investment grade rating and decreased the size of that facility from 3,600,000,000 to $2,750,000,000 Our cash flow from operating activities was a record $853,400,000 in the December quarter.

Speaker 1

Our free cash flow was a record $762,700,000 and 43.4 percent of net sales. As of December 31, our consolidated cash and total investment position was 315,500,000 We paid down $362,700,000 of total debt in the December quarter. And over the last 14 full quarters We closed the Microsemi acquisition and incurred over $8,000,000,000 in debt to do so, we have paid down almost $4,800,000,000 of the debt and continue to allocate substantially all of our excess cash beyond dividends and stock buyback to bring down this debt. We have accomplished this despite the adverse macro and market conditions during the earlier years of this period, which we feel is a testimony to the cash generation We continue to expect our debt levels to reduce significantly over the next several years. Our adjusted EBITDA in the December quarter was a record $869,400,000 49.5 percent of net sales.

Speaker 1

Our trailing 12 month adjusted EBITDA was also a record at $3,000,000,000 46.5 percent of net sales. Our net debt to adjusted EBITDA was $2,580,000 at December 31, 2021, down from $2,990,000 at September 30, 2021. Our dividend payment in the September quarter was $128,700,000 and we repurchased $166,000,000 of stock during the quarter. Capital expenditures were $90,700,000 in the December quarter. Our expectation for the March 2022 quarter's capital expenditures It's between $135,000,000 $145,000,000 Our capital expenditures for fiscal 2022 are expected to be between $390,000,000 $400,000,000 As a reminder, our fiscal year 2021 capital expenditures came in lower than originally planned due to longer equipment lead times and deliveries pushing out as a result of overall industry conditions.

Speaker 1

We continue to prudently add capital equipment to maintain, grow and operate our internal manufacturing operations to support the expected long term growth of the business. We expect these capital investments will bring gross margin improvement to our business and give us increased control over our production during periods of industry wide constraints. Depreciation expense in the December quarter was 64,900,000 I will now turn it over to Ganesh to give his comments on the quarter, on the performance of the business as well as our guidance for the March quarter. Ganesh?

Speaker 2

Great. Thank you, Eric, and good afternoon, everyone. Our December quarter results continued the string of strong growth quarters With revenue growing 6.5% sequentially to achieve another all time record at 1,760,000,000 Breaking through the $7,000,000,000 annualized revenue milestone. On a year over year basis, our December quarter revenue was up 30%, Registering the 5th consecutive quarter of rising year over year revenue growth rate. Non GAAP gross margin was another record 66.1%, up 80 basis points from 65.3% in the September quarter and above the midpoint of our guidance, As we continue to ramp our internal factories and benefit from improved fixed cost absorption as well as product mix changes.

Speaker 2

Non GAAP operating margin was also a record at 44.6%, up 210 basis points from 42.5% in the September quarter and well above the high end of our guidance. The large increase in operating margin percentage was helped by the rapid growth in revenue and the additional time it is taking to hire new employees, thus delaying expected operating expenses. At 21.5 percent operating expenses, we are 100 basis points below the low end of our long term model of 22.5 percent to 23.5 percent in operating expenses. Our long term business model will continue to guide our actions to enable the long term growth and profitability of our business. Our consolidated non GAAP diluted EPS was a record $1.20 per share, at the high end of our guidance and up 49% from the year ago quarter.

Speaker 2

Adjusted EBITDA at 49.5 percent of revenue And free cash flow at 43.4 percent of revenue were both very strong, continuing to demonstrate the robust cash generation capabilities of our business. This in turn enabled us to pay down another $362,700,000 in debt, which brought down our net debt by $422,000,000 $122,100,000 driving our net leverage ratio down to 2.58 in the December quarter. This reduction in net debt and net leverage ratio was achieved despite our also buying back $166,000,000 of our shares under our $4,000,000,000 stock buyback program, which we initiated soon after we achieved investment grade rating for our debt in November. The December quarter marked our 125th consecutive quarter of non GAAP profitability. And I would like to thank all our stakeholders Taking a look at our revenue from a product line perspective.

Speaker 2

Our microcontroller revenue was sequentially up a strong 8.7% as compared to the September quarter and was an all time record. On an annualized basis, our December quarter microcontroller revenue At $3,900,000,000 is closing in on $4,000,000,000 On a year over year basis, our December quarter microcontroller revenue was up 33.9 percent. All microcontroller product lines, 8 Bed, 16 Bed and 32 Bed At over 30% year over year revenue growth in the December quarter with 32 bit microcontrollers having the highest year over year growth. 8 bit microcontrollers and 32 bit microcontrollers, both of which are about the same size in revenue, each also achieved record revenue milestones. Microcontrollers represented 55.3 percent of our revenue in the December quarter.

Speaker 2

Coming off strong sequential growth in the September quarter, Our analog revenue increased 1.9% in the December quarter, setting another record in the process. On an annualized basis, Our December quarter analog revenue broke through the $2,000,000,000 mark for the first time. On a year over year basis, December quarter analog revenue was up 34.3%, almost the same year over year growth rate as our microcontroller revenue. Analog represented 28.5 percent of our revenue in the December quarter. While we no longer break out our FPGA or licensing revenue, They both remain a key focus for Microsoft's long term growth.

Speaker 2

In the December quarter, our FPGA revenue hit an all time record by a wide margin And our licensing royalty revenue also hit an all time record. Taking a look at our revenue from a geographic and end market perspective, Americas was up 4.6% sequentially. Europe was up 11% sequentially, which is significantly better than typical seasonal performance for the December quarter. Asia was up 5.8% sequentially and all end markets were strong and supply constrained. Business conditions continue to be exceptionally strong through the quarter.

Speaker 2

Our preferred supply program, our PSP backlog continues to grow and is well over 50% of our aggregate backlog and 100% of our backlog in the most constrained capacity product areas. Demand far outpaced the capacity improvements and increased shipments we achieved in the quarter. As a result, our unsupported backlog, which represents backlog customers wanted shipped to them in the December quarter, but which we could not deliver in the December quarter, continued to climb significantly as compared to the unsupported backlog exiting the September quarter. To illustrate the magnitude Off the demand supply imbalance. Despite our December quarter revenue having grown 30% as compared to the year ago quarter, We exited the December quarter with the highest unsupported backlog ever.

Speaker 2

We continue to experience constraints in all our internal and external factories and their related manufacturing supply chains. We are also experiencing some adverse impact From the rapid rise in the omicron variant cases of the COVID-nineteen virus, we continue to ramp our internal factories as fast as possible And we are working closely with our supply chain partners who provide wafer foundry, assembly, cast and materials to secure additional capacity wherever possible. Looking at the magnitude of the demand supply imbalance, the size of our non cancellable backlog and the rate at which we're able to bring on new capacity, We continue to expect that we will remain supply constrained throughout 2022 and possibly beyond that. We believe our backlog position, Especially the proportion of PSP backlog is giving us a solid foundation to prudently acquire constrained raw materials, Invest in expanding factory capacity and hire employees to support our factory ramps. Our planned capital spending continues to rise In response to growth opportunities in our business as well as to fill gaps in the level of capacity investments being made by our outsourced manufacturing partners In technologies they consider to be trailing edge, but which we believe will be workhorse technologies for us for many years to come.

Speaker 2

In the December quarter, we signed a definitive agreement to purchase an assembly test factory shell in the Philippines near where we already operate our manufacturing facilities. As we facilitate and build out this shell with equipment, We will be able to grow our internal back end capacity for many years to come. We believe our increase in capital Spending will enable us to capitalize on growth opportunities, improve our gross margins, increase our market share and give us more control over our destiny, especially for trailing edge technologies. We will of course continue to utilize the capacity available from our outsourced partners, But our goal is to be less constrained by their investment priorities in areas where they don't align with our business needs. Now let's get into the guidance for the March quarter.

Speaker 2

Our backlog for the March quarter is very strong and we have more capacity improvements coming into effect. However, our supply in the March quarter is expected to be adversely impacted by the COVID-nineteen omicron variant, which has increased The level of factory workforce absentees. We also have challenges in staffing several of our factories at the rate we would like to. Taking all these factors we have discussed on the call today into consideration, we expect our net sales for the March quarter to be up between 2% 5% sequentially. Our guidance range assumes some capacity additions as well as continued capacity constraints, some of which we expect to work during the quarter and others that we will carry over to future quarters.

Speaker 2

At the midpoint of our revenue guidance, our year over year growth for the March quarter would be a Strong 24%. For the March quarter, we expect our non GAAP gross margin to be between 66.2% And 66.6 percent of sales, we expect non GAAP operating expenses to be between 21.8% And 22.2 percent and we expect non GAAP operating profit to be between 44% 48% of sales. We expect our non GAAP diluted earnings per share to be between $1.22 per share and $1.28 per share. Given all the complications of accounting for our acquisitions, including amortization of intangibles, restructuring charges An inventory write up on acquisitions. Microchip will continue to provide guidance and track its results on a non GAAP basis, except for net sales, which will be on a GAAP basis.

Speaker 2

We believe that non GAAP results provide more meaningful comparison to prior quarters and we request that analysts continue to report And non GAAP estimates to first call. Finally, at our Investor Day on November 8, last year, we unveiled our Microchip 3.0 strategy, which builds on our Microchip 2.0 strategy that we successfully executed over the last decade, employing serial acquisitions to give us a solid foundation to build scale and breadth of solutions, while significantly improving our gross and operating margin model. To summarize, the essential elements of Microsoft 3.0 we announced were an organic growth target of 2x industry growth By focusing on total system solutions and the 6 key market megatrends, long term non GAAP operating margin target of 44% to 46% And free cash flow target of 38%, increased capital return to shareholders to 50% of free cash flow and further increase This every quarter to return 100 percent of free cash flow to shareholders as net leverage drops to 1.5x, Increase our CapEx investment to 3% to 6% of revenue and invest in 130 days to 150 days of inventory over the business cycles. And finally, to maintain a strong company foundation built on culture and sustainability.

Speaker 2

As you can see from our December quarter results and the March quarter guidance, We are laser focused on executing our Microchip 3.0 strategy. Let me now pass the baton to Steve to talk more about our capital return to shareholders.

Speaker 3

Steve? Thank you, Ganesh, and good afternoon, everyone. Today, I would like to reflect on our financial results announced today and provide you further updates on our capital return strategy. Reflecting on our financial results, I continue to be very proud of all employees of Microchip that have delivered another exceptional quarter and making new records in many respects, namely record net sales, record non GAAP gross margin percentage, Record non GAAP operating margin percentage, record non GAAP EPS, record cash flow from operations and record adjusted EBITDA. The Board of Directors announced an increase in the dividend of 9.1% from last quarter to $0.253 per share.

Speaker 3

This is an increase of 29.7% from a year ago quarter. Last quarter, we received an investment grade rating from both Moody's and Fitch. After receiving such rating, we initiated our enhanced Capital return strategy that we described at our Investor and Analyst Day on November 8, 2021. During the last quarter, we purchased $166,000,000 of our stock in the open market. We also paid out $129,000,000 in dividends.

Speaker 3

Thus, the total cash return totaled $295,000,000 This was 50.1 percent of our free cash flow projection at the start of the quarter of $589,000,000 consistent with us targeting 50% of free cash flow as a return to our investors. However, our cash collections in the final month of the quarter were exceptional Due to a very strong and linear shipping quarter and record non GAAP gross and operating margins and record adjusted EBITDA being well above our forecast. Our actual free cash flow last quarter was $763,000,000 which was $174,000,000 higher than our projection. Towards the end of the quarter, the stock buyback window had already closed. So we use the extra free cash flow towards further paying down the debt.

Speaker 3

This extra pay down of debt As well as record adjusted EBITDA drove down our December net leverage to 2.58 from 2.99 at the end of September. Our strategy for cash return to the shareholders Was to execute it based on forecast and then true up in the following quarter. Because of The unpredictability of the free cash flow, we are simplifying the process. Going forward, we will use the actual free cash flow for the prior quarter and return our target percentage of that free cash flow to shareholders in the current quarter. So based on this revised process, we will use our last quarter's actual free cash flow Of $763,000,000 This quarter, we plan to return 52.5% Of this $763,000,000 which is $400,000,000 to the shareholders.

Speaker 3

Out of this $400,000,000 the dividend is expected to be approximately $141,000,000 And the stock buyback is expected to be approximately $259,000,000 I will also like to note That on January 13, 2022, Moody's further raised Microchip's unsecured debt credit rating From prior BAA3 positive to the current BAA2 positive, As you know, Moody's BAA2 rating is equivalent to BBB on the rating scale of S and P and Fitch. With that, operator, will you please poll for questions?

Operator

Absolutely. Thank you. We'll take our first question from John Pitzer with Credit Suisse.

Speaker 4

Yes, good afternoon guys. Thanks for letting me ask the question. Ganesh, just relative to the supply issues that you're seeing in the March quarter, Any way to quantify that? And as you think about the balance of the year, do you have enough visibility of backlog and scheduled supply growth To make the argument that you should be able to grow sequentially every quarter in the calendar year 2022?

Speaker 2

The supply issues in the March quarter are comprehended in our guidance. And So there's nothing more to say other than we are working through it. They're just natural issues that come with COVID and some of the disruptions that happened with it. Our backlog position, as I mentioned, is extremely strong. We have much of 2022 Backlog already on the books and really it's bringing supply on that we expect will continue to drive the growth.

Speaker 2

There's no shortage of demand that we're working on. And every quarter, we continue to leave more of the backlog that is unsupported, has happened 5 quarters in a row. So if you look at the size of the imbalance, the size of the non cancelable backlog, the rate at which we're bringing on new capacity, We expect we're going to be constrained throughout 2022.

Speaker 4

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We'll take our next question from Pradeep Rahmani with UBS.

Speaker 5

Hi, thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to sort of follow-up on the prior question. In the past, you talked about visibility being solid for 4 quarters of sequential growth. How should we interpret your comments that you just made in terms of whether you have that visibility now, both in terms of demand and supply?

Speaker 2

We have visibility in terms of demand that exceeds 4 quarters. We have supply coming on every single quarter. We're trying to guide you a quarter at a time, but at this point, there is no demand signal That has any concern for us, the PSP backlog makes it all non cancelable. That's a very high percentage of our backlog. Some of the PSP backlog is going well beyond 12 months at this point in time.

Speaker 2

So it's really a supply driven equation for at least all of 2022 and likely into 2023. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We'll take our next question from Gary Mobley with Wells Fargo Securities. Okay, we're unable to hear you. Please check your mute function.

Speaker 6

Apologize for that. Thanks for taking my question guys. As your unsupportive backlog continues to grow each and every quarter, I'm presuming that you're having to make tough decisions with respect to supporting perhaps or not supporting some lower margin Products and strategy for maximizing the mix and whatnot, longer term, does that deferred Product shipment going to backlog, is it temporarily or permanently lost? What's sort of what are sort of the long term considerations In terms of mix contribution from the supply constrained environment that we're in?

Speaker 2

Well, a constrained environment clearly gives us an opportunity to, richen the mix and use the capacity we have. But you can't just be short term oriented in that. You have to look at Who the customers are? What markets they're in? What the long term prospects are that go with them?

Speaker 2

As demand goes unfulfilled in any quarter, It remains for the most part non cancelable backlog. Anything in 90 days with or without PSP is already non cancelable. And what we do is we just squeeze out some into the following quarters, some into the quarter after that. Capacity is coming on and we're able to respond to some of it with that. And there could be on the fringes some of the demand that eventually does not materialize, but the vast majority of the backlog stays As non cancelable backlog, but serviced at a later point in time.

Speaker 1

And the biggest decision maker now in terms of what we're shipping is based on the PSP backlog that we've had in place and long it's been in place?

Speaker 3

Yes. I think, Gary, your question was more like, Are we not shipping the low margin backlog? And when we eventually ship, is that a negative to gross margin? I think operations don't know what the gross margin is. They look at units and backlog and dollars and they ship and allocate.

Speaker 3

There's a much lower level of emphasis to not ship the low margin backlog. It's much more to do with who the customer is, what the market segment is, who the strategic accounts are. We're shipping the PSP backlog And constraining the non PSP backlog, so I think your concern is really not well placed there.

Speaker 7

All right.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Steve.

Operator

Thank you. We'll hear next from Toshiya Hara with Goldman Sachs.

Speaker 8

Hi. Thank you so much for taking my question. I wanted to get your thoughts on industry supply demand. Clearly, as of today and as you guys say for the rest of the year, things most likely stay very tight. At the same time, you're seeing pretty significant increases in CapEx from most players, including yourselves, Your peers, with capacity coming online late 2022 and definitely into 2023, Is it way too early to be concerned about supply demand going into 2023?

Speaker 8

Or how do you think about that internally? And what would you need to see for you to

Speaker 2

After 5 quarters and now into the 6th quarter, there's really no line of sight to having demand supply Coming back into some form of equilibrium. So we continue to the gap between demand and supply despite adding supply continues to grow. We know that's not a permanent factor, but it is at this point in time. Demand continues to be strong. Every Customer I speak to, every CEO that expresses their needs, continues to see strength in their business In fact, many, many of them wanting to go into something more of non cancelable nature Into 2023, many cases into 2024 as they see their business.

Speaker 2

So there are many, many factors driving semiconductor growth Beyond the short term supply demand, there are secular factors that we've talked about with the megatrends with how digitization is taking place. At some point, it will have a supply balance a supply demand balance that does occur. We don't see it in 2022. We don't see it in our numbers that we see for 2023 at this point.

Speaker 4

Thank you.

Speaker 3

You're welcome.

Operator

Thank you. We'll take our next question from Vivek Arya with Bank of America Securities.

Speaker 9

Thanks for taking my question. So Ganesh, I wanted to ask this supply demand question in a different way. Can you increase supply every quarter for the next 3 or 4 quarters, obviously, barring any macro issues. Because if you can increase supply and demand is not an issue, Then growing sales every quarter should be doable, right? Or what part of that equation, right am I missing?

Speaker 2

We are absolutely increasing capacity every single quarter. You're not missing any part of that equation.

Speaker 9

Got it. So that's what I wanted to confirm because I thought there was some confusion that are you still sticking with the potential for improving revenue every quarter, all else being equal.

Speaker 2

We're driving in that direction. We got plenty of demand. So demand side is not the issue, capacity is. We are building capacity that will continue to grow throughout 2022 and into 2023. We're trying to provide you more General direction of where are we going without trying to make this every quarter, what are we trying to do?

Speaker 2

Clearly, the guidance we're providing Specifically, it's for this quarter, but the demand supply equation driven by the demand we have, the supply we're bringing on Continues to have many quarters of lags.

Speaker 9

Got it. Thank you, Ganesh.

Operator

Thank you. We'll take our next question from Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

Speaker 10

Good afternoon and congratulations on the solid results and execution. Over the past earnings season, all 3 of the large U. S.-based semi equipment suppliers have been coming up a bit short on shipments to their customers because They're being constrained by component availability, logistics and labor issues and well, and they all expect to Slightly under shift their customers' manufacturing requirements at least through the first half of this year. So I'm wondering if this is maybe slowing your ability to Your internal front end wafer capacity or even capacity plans by your outsourced wafer fab partners, maybe just a little bit Versus what you expected maybe 60, 90 days ago?

Speaker 2

So it is true that Equipment in general, and we've been saying this on prior calls as well, lead times have been stretching. Some part of that is just The equipment manufacturer is in balance between supply and demand. Some of it is semiconductor shortages that feed into the equipment that is built for semiconductor manufacturers. So yes, our lead times for receiving equipment have continued to stretch.

Speaker 7

Thanks, Dinesh. You're welcome.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Harsh Kumar with Piper Sandler.

Speaker 7

Yes. Hey, guys. A lot of people have asked about Supply, I wanted to ask a question about demand. So this is the 5th of the 6th quarter, Steve and Ganesh have exceptional demand. I understand at the beginning of the COVID timeframe, there was some particular mismatch.

Speaker 7

But can you help us understand what is fundamentally going on with the end markets This demand continues to strengthen and now you're looking at a year's worth of non year's plus worth of non cancelable orders. So help us with that if you don't mind.

Speaker 2

So demand in all geographies, In all end markets, continues to be strong. And I think they're driven by different requirements And at different times, right? If you take automotive, some of it was shortages and then as they have tried to solve some of the shortages as content And there's a richening mix of the cars that is driving consumption of semiconductors. You take office Automation, there was the return to the work from home at first and now there's some amount of returning to the office So segment by segment by segment, when you go into that, what we find is that the demand drivers, some of those are the megatrends we have talked about, Some of that is still catch up demand that people are trying to put in place. Demand continues to be extremely strong as reflected in the bookings we see, The backlog we have, the period of time over which people are willing to place backlog and the percentage that they're willing to have is non cancelable.

Speaker 7

Appreciate it, guys. Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. We'll hear next from Tore Svanberg with Stifel.

Speaker 6

Yes. Thank you and congratulations on the results. One of your competitors just had a This morning and they're talking about some pretty big CapEx numbers. Basically regardless of the economic climate, I'm just wondering philosophically as you think about your capacity additions over the next few years, it does sound like the plans are a bit more measured. And then also do you have a CapEx number for fiscal 2023?

Speaker 6

Thank you.

Speaker 2

So we don't have a CapEx for fiscal 23, if that was your question, we will share some of that when we have a May call itself. CapEx decisions are long term decisions. They're not driven by just What does the next calendar year look like? It's decisions about capacity that we want to be able to serve a 5, 10 year window of time as we look at it. And so perhaps we have been more measured and we do want to be thoughtful in what capacity and what capital are we But we have also been aggressive over the last year as you have seen in the level of our capital expenses that we have put in, in the raising Of the CapEx targets that we have had into capacity that we believe is long term good capacity for Microchip to have, both to be able to serve customers, but also to be able to replenish some of the inventory we think we need to, as some level of normalization And demand and supply come about.

Speaker 1

Thank you. As Ganesh says, we're not going to give you a fiscal 2023 Capital plan today, we'll put that together as part of our annual operating plan process we go through this quarter. But I think investors should expect that given the environment that we're seeing, Our intention to increase the percentage of manufacturing that we do internally that CapEx will continue to be Kind of on the high end of our guidance that we've given on a long term basis next year, and we'll give you a more firm number next quarter.

Speaker 6

That's good. Thank you, Eric.

Operator

Thank you. We'll hear next from William Stein with Truist Securities.

Speaker 6

Great. Thanks for taking my question. I'll add my congratulations to the very strong execution. There's a Comment in the press release that I don't know if you've touched on during this discussion, I don't quite understand. I certainly understand we're capacity constrained.

Speaker 6

Microchip is, the whole industry is, demand is very strong, revenues going up next quarter. I think the press release noted that inventory days you expect to increase next quarter. Is that for are you building demand for product that Has building inventory for product value demand in future quarters that's just happened to not be required to be delivered During Q1 or is it WIP versus finished goods? Can you help me understand that? Thank you.

Speaker 1

Yes. I mean, we're ramping our factories. We're seeing Input costs increased through the supply chain and all those things are impacting our costs. And we We demonstrated in our Analyst and Investor Day that we want to increase the days of inventory in the balance sheet to be able to better support customers. So Raw materials work in process is absolutely going up, input costs continue to rise, and we're positioning ourselves to be able to continue to grow the business as Ganesh has

Speaker 2

If we can build it, we're shipping it. So we're not trying to build inventory and hold shipments back. Clearly, there's more WIP, work in progress, there's more materials that we're going to need. We're in a growing environment. So what we have to have internally Is to be able to feed forward looking demand, not just backward looking demand.

Speaker 1

Right. And also, as I mentioned in kind of my prepared remarks As gross margin improves, that essentially increases the days of inventory on the balance sheet, just the way the math works there.

Speaker 6

Yes, I understand. Great. Thanks guys.

Operator

Thank you. We'll take our next question from Chris Danely with Citi.

Speaker 6

Hey, thanks guys. So sequential revenue growth is slowing down a little bit. You said that there are some omicron issues and other Hiring issues, assuming that gets fixed in the March quarter, does that mean that revenue growth should accelerate In the June quarter and will you be able to start to catch up and maybe try and reduce this unsupported backlog if that happens?

Speaker 2

So, Chris, the limitation is not on the demand side, it's on the supply side. We're working, I'd like to address The supply constraints, COVID was an extra factor that we had not built into our plants. Obviously, no one knew about it until the December Time frame. We will hopefully clear through some of that going through this quarter, but there are also challenges on. Earlier on, we talked about getting equipment in Time has been a challenge.

Speaker 2

Hiring all the people has been a challenge. So we're running like heck. We expect that the June quarter, we'll have more favorable capabilities barring any unknowns in terms of where we might go. Okay. Thanks, Ganesh.

Speaker 2

You're welcome.

Operator

Thank you. We'll hear next from Chris Caso with Raymond James.

Speaker 4

Yes. Thank you. My question is on pricing. And I know as input costs were rising last year, you were quick to pass along those Price increases. I guess, well, just 3 sub questions to that.

Speaker 4

1, Do you believe that the price the input price increases have are behind us now or is it potential for those to go higher As the year goes on, are those price increases now fully baked into the quarterly results now that you're guiding for For the March quarter. And then at what point do we start to kind of anniversary these price increases? And I'm guessing you're not going to want to give us The magnitude of how much pricing has gone up, but at kind of what point does that is that no longer a factor in year on year comps?

Speaker 2

Let me try and parse your 3 questions and see how best to answer it. So firstly, input prices For us, so our costs continue to go up. They are happening from different suppliers at different points in time with different magnitude. So What you see reflected in our COGS, our days of inventory and all that is in fact an aggregation of what is taking place every quarter. But our costs are going up and will continue to go up as we go through the year as there are structured cost increases built into 2022.

Speaker 2

For pricing, we have done them at specific points to Try and not have a price increase every time there is a cost increase on us. That will also continue at some as we collect Cost increases that we have incurred and pass them on as price increases to a customer. Our intention is to be able to make sure that we're able to cover It's hard to know in the current environment when does Adjustment mechanisms that we have stopped. It's an inflationary environment. We know that our suppliers are facing that inflation.

Speaker 2

They are passing on that inflation to us. There are large capital costs that they have incurred, the large capital costs we are incurring That are building into the cost structure, the labor costs have gone up quite significantly. The material costs have gone up quite significantly. And that hasn't stemmed as of yet. And I don't know if a year from now we might be in better Times from an inflationary standpoint, but as long as that inflation bear and cost increases are passed on to us, We will pass them on as price increases.

Speaker 4

Very helpful. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Great. Thanks, Chris.

Operator

Thank you. We'll hear next from Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley.

Speaker 11

Great. Thank you. I wonder if you could talk about your customer level of inventory. I know we're dealing with these shortage situations, but it Seems like in the past, we get into incomplete kitting where maybe they have inventory of other people's components waiting for yours. Do you have any sense for that?

Speaker 11

And are you the bottleneck component And enough of these cases that you feel pretty confident that the inventory is as lean as it looks?

Speaker 2

So we get inventory visibility through our channel because they report that on a regular basis to us. To our OEM customers, we really don't get they don't report to us. We might be able to look through their balance sheets as they report them and see where it's at, but it's really not specific to us. The intensity of customer escalations Has not really backed off. Every single day, I am involved In a half a dozen or more personally, which means that the rest of the company has an order or 2 magnitude higher than that that are involved.

Speaker 2

And those are all The places where something that Microchip provides them is holding up that customer's ability to complete what they're doing. Now we are, of course, aware of this, what has been termed the Golden Screw Syndrome, Where customers may be building inventory on product, they can get shipments off, while they await shipments of the product that they need to complete the bill of materials. It's reasonable to assume there's some part of that that it would apply to us as well. But given our 90 day non cancelable terms For standard backlog and a minimum of 12 months of non cancelable for PSP backlog, we believe there are significant disincentives for our customers

Operator

Thank you. We'll take our next question from Ambrish Srivastava with BMO.

Speaker 6

Hi, thank you. Ganesh, I had a question on OpEx. You mentioned that you're below the long term target range of 22.5 23.5 Should we expect OpEx tend to catch up to the lower end, at least to the lower end of that range as we go through the next few quarters?

Speaker 2

It will go slowly. You can see we tapped it up in this quarter. Eric, maybe you want to Talk a little bit more about kind of how the rate at which we would do that?

Speaker 1

Yes. I think it's very much dependent on our hiring Success, right? I mean, we're challenged in getting the labor that we need throughout the company. That's just the market right now, and We're working hard with our HR teams to make that happen. So I think it's going to be a gradual increase.

Speaker 1

The way we want you modeling long term is within Our long term model, which is 22.5% to 23.5%, and we're below that this quarter.

Speaker 2

And there's wage inflation as well, which is higher than historical, And we expect that will continue for some time.

Speaker 6

Great. Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We'll hear our next question from Christopher Rolland with SIG.

Speaker 12

Hey, guys. Thanks for the question and one for Ganesh or Steve. So we are coming off of the TI update and are going to have somewhere between 5 to 8 300 millimeter fabs, which is pretty unbelievable. But do you guys were and they're not the only Adding 300 millimeter fabs. So do you guys worry about a flood of kind of super Efficient analog and embedded product hitting the market eventually here, I guess, first of all?

Speaker 12

And secondly, Does this change your thinking about getting your own 300 millimeter fab to compete? Thanks.

Speaker 2

If you look over time, I mean capacity has come on at different points in the industry. At this point in time, we're not feeling a particular concern about 12 inches capacity and what it might do to our analog business. We do build some analog products through our foundry partners that are on 12 inches A 12 inches fab at some It isn't one that we're looking at today. And we'll just have to evaluate where the situation is and what makes sense. But today, we're focused on the technology that we build in house, the work that we're doing to ensure That trailing edge technology, which is really a limitation not just in our growth, but actually part of the industry's growth is there is not enough investment going in To those product lines that limit large end equipment, and we want to make sure that we have our capacity Well lined up to participate in that growth and help our customers as well.

Speaker 2

Do you want to add anything else?

Speaker 3

I would just add that based on what we know, the number of fabs being added By the company that you named, there is going to be a period of substantial Underutilization and substantial underperformance and a significant headwind to their gross margin delivered by all that So I think you're talking about very low cost capacity. I think I look at it just the opposite. I think there's going to be significant cost problem for them. And not having all that 12 inches capacity, we're making enormous gross margins. Our operating margins are higher than our long term target almost already, right?

Speaker 1

It's getting close to it.

Speaker 3

Getting close to it. So and we continue to make further improvements with bringing test inside The technology we licensed last quarter, which we'll be producing inside, so we got plenty of buttons on ourselves to push And I'm really not concerned about somebody else's capacity coming in. I recently learned of a report that There is $150,000,000,000 of investment that would be required To bring the trailing edge capacity online for the next 5 years, the capacity is that much shorter than the trailing edge. Why? Because no foundry is putting additional trailing edge capacity, they're only putting leading edge.

Speaker 3

So trailing edge has to be done by whoever. And given that there is not $150,000,000,000 of capital being put into trailing edge technology In the coming 5 years, so I think I see this capacity to be short as far as the eyes can see right now.

Speaker 12

Insightful. Thanks, Steve.

Operator

Thank you. We'll take our next question from Nick Todorov with Longbow Research.

Speaker 2

Yes. Thanks for giving me the opportunity to ask the question. I have a little bit more philosophical question. How would you characterize the level of trust in the supply chain between suppliers, customers, the channel? Do you think there has been damage sustained and given all the disruptions and what kind of impact is that potentially having?

Speaker 2

Trust is built over many, many years. It isn't something that you Either gain or lose in the course of a short period of time, which is what I would refer to the last 6, 12 months as so. And trust is a function of communication, managing expectations, treating each other with respect. And all of those are consistent with how we work with our customers and we work with our suppliers and what we do. So no, I don't think Trust has been saying, I think there's clearly stress points.

Speaker 2

People are looking to grow more. We're looking to grow more. We want more. Our customers are looking to grow more, they want more. But there's a realistic sense that we're doing the best that we can Within the constraints that we have, just as our suppliers are working as best as they can within the constraints that they have and we both share Some responsibility in how we manage the path going forward.

Speaker 2

So I don't see any trust issues On either the customer side or the supplier side, that's an issue.

Speaker 3

Well, it's also a relative equation. If we were not Shipping everything a customer needs, but they were getting all the product from our competitors whenever they are designed with our competitors, Then it would be a problem, a bigger problem for us in losing trust because we're letting them down more than anybody else. But that's not the case. It's actually just the obvious opposite. Customer after customer, we are being told that despite the constraints, We have enabled their success in the last year, 2 years more than the others have.

Speaker 3

Our constraints There are many competitors who won't even take an escalation call. They would say, don't bother us, there's nothing we can do, that's all we can give you. And at Microchip, we are on numerous calls all day, every day of the week and taking customers' Call explaining them the situation, improving the way we can, but giving shoulders giving a shoulder to KRYON for the customers And that empathy is helpful. So I think in general, we are building trust relative to our competitors and destroying trust.

Speaker 7

Got it. Thanks guys.

Operator

Thank you. We'll take our final question from Harsh Kumar with Piper Sandler.

Speaker 7

Yes. Hey, guys. A tactical one here. Ganesh, I believe when you gave the commentary, you may I do not have provided any color on how you expect these segments to perform in the March quarter. I was curious if you would take a second to just kind of Give us whatever words of wisdom you can and how you expect the microcontroller analog business to perform in March.

Speaker 2

So we don't break out our product line by for each quarter in terms of the guidance. They all work together on it. Right now, All of them are supply limited. All end markets are supply limited. It's really how effectively we can Bring capacity on, fight through some of the COVID issues and all of that.

Speaker 2

And the demand is there in all product lines, all end markets What we need to do and for the for at least many more quarters, that's really what determines what the strength is as

Speaker 1

I think it's probably helpful to look

Speaker 7

at that.

Speaker 1

We had a few quarters last Calendar year where your microcontroller and analog outperformed each other. But overall for the year, Ganesh gave year over year numbers, they really performed right in line

Speaker 7

Got it. Okay, fair enough. Thanks guys. Appreciate it. Congrats.

Speaker 7

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And that does conclude today's question and answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Mourti for any additional or closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Great. Well, thank you everybody for attending. We do have meetings and conferences and all that coming up in the next several weeks and we look forward to speaking to you at Thank you. Good afternoon.

Operator

Thank you. And that does conclude today's conference. We do thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.

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Earnings Conference Call
Microchip Technology Q3 2022
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