Phillips 66 Q1 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
April 29, 2022

There are 19 speakers on the call.

Operator

Welcome to the First Quarter 2022 Phillips 66 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Erica, and I will be your operator for today's call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session. Please note that this conference is being recorded.

Operator

I will now turn the call over to Jeff Dieterdt, Vice President, Investor Relations. Jeff, you may begin.

Speaker 1

Good morning, and welcome to Phillips 66 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Participants on today's call will include Greg Garland, Chairman and CEO Mark Lasier, President and COO Kevin Mitchell, EVP and CFO Bob Herman, EVP, Refining Brian Mandel, EVP, Marketing and Commercial and Tim Roberts, EVP, Midstream. Today's presentation materials can be found on the Investor Relations section of the Phillips 66 website along with supplemental financial and operating Slide 2 contains our Safe Harbor statement. We'll be making forward looking statements during today's call. Actual results may differ materially from today's comments.

Speaker 1

Factors that could cause actual results to differ are included here as well as in our SEC filings. With that, I'll turn the call over to Greg.

Speaker 2

Okay, Jeff, thanks. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. For the Q1, we had adjusted earnings of $595,000,000 or $1.32 per share. Our results were impacted by seasonally lower margins across our businesses. In March, we saw substantially improved operating earnings.

Speaker 2

In fact, March provided majority of our Q1 earnings. Both gasoline and distillate inventories coupled with strong demand We'll provide momentum as we head into the summer driving season. We generated strong operating cash flow of $1,100,000,000 during the Q1 I returned $404,000,000 to shareholders in dividends. In April, we repaid $1,450,000,000 of debt. And earlier today, we announced that we'll restart our share repurchases under our existing $2,500,000,000 authorization.

Speaker 2

In addition, we remain committed to a secure, competitive and growing dividend and plan to resume our cadence of annual dividend increases. Earlier this month, we announced that Mark Glaser will become President and CEO of Phillips 66 effective July 1. Mark will lead a company that has a solid strategy, strong leadership and outstanding employees. We're all confident that Mark will serve Phillips 66, our employees, Communities and shareholders well as the right leader to position the company to thrive in the years ahead. With that, I'll turn the call over to Mark to provide additional comments.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Greg. I'm excited to embark on this new role, building on the talents of our team and the strength of our assets as we continue to deliver shareholder value. We remain focused on operating excellence and advancing our strategic initiatives. We're committed to improving our competitive position across our business segments to drive future performance In any market environment, business transformation efforts were initiated last year and a cross functional team is focused on opportunities To sustainably optimize our cost and organizational structure across the enterprise. We're targeting a sustainable cost reduction of at least $700,000,000 per year, which equates to about $1 per barrel.

Speaker 3

We plan to provide regular updates on our efforts over the coming year. In midstream, we completed the buy in of Phillips 66 Partners and at the Sweeny Hub, we expect Frac IV to start up in the Q3. The total project cost for Frac IV is expected to be approximately $525,000,000 CPChem is pursuing a portfolio of high return projects, enhancing its asset base as well as optimizing its existing operations. CPChem's total capital budget for 2022 is $1,400,000,000 of which $1,000,000,000 is for growth projects with an average This includes growing its normal alpha olefins business with a second world scale unit to produce 1 hexene, A critical component in high performance polyethylene. CPChem is also expanding its propylene splitting capacity by £1,000,000,000 per year With a new unit located at its Cedar Bayou facility.

Speaker 3

Both projects are expected to start up in 2023. CPChem continues to develop 2 world scale petrochemical facilities on the U. S. Gulf Coast and in Ross Laffan, Qatar. A final investment decision for the U.

Speaker 3

S. Gulf Coast project is expected this year. We continue to progress Rodeo renewed and expect to complete The final steps of the permitting process this quarter. Completion of the conversion project is expected in early 2024. Rodeo will initially have over 50,000 barrels per day of renewable fuel production capacity.

Speaker 3

In addition, the conversion will reduce emissions from the facility. The total project cost is anticipated to be approximately $850,000,000 Our Emerging Energy Group continues to advance opportunities in renewable fuels, Batteries, Carbon Capture and Hydrogen. In March, our Humber Refinery made its first delivery of sustainable aviation fuel in the UK Under a supply agreement with British Airways. Also during the quarter, we entered into an agreement with H2 Energy Europe to form a joint venture to develop up to 50 retail hydrogen refueling stations across Germany, Austria and Denmark by 2026. During the Q1, we added a 2,050 target to reduce Scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas emissions intensity by 50% Compared with 2019 levels.

Speaker 3

The new target builds on our 2,030 target announced last year. Our targets reflect our commitment to sustainability While meeting the world's energy needs today and in the future. Before we review financial results, we'd like to recognize our employees' commitment to operating excellence. We're honored that our refining and chemicals businesses were recently recognized for their 2021 safety performance. The AFPM recognized 3 of our Including Sweeny, Billings and Bayway.

Speaker 3

The Sweeny Refinery received the Distinguished Safety Award, which is the highest annual award the industry recognizes. In chemicals, CPChem received 2 AFPm awards for its sites in Border and Conroe, Texas. Congratulations to all the people working at these facilities. Well done. Now I'll turn the call over to Kevin to review the financial results.

Speaker 4

Thank you, Mark, and hello, everyone. Starting with an overview on Slide 4, we summarize our financial results for the quarter. Adjusted earnings were $595,000,000 or $1.32 per share. The $158,000,000 decrease The fair value of our investment in Novonix reduced earnings per share by $0.27 We generated $1,100,000,000 of operating cash flow, including a working capital use of $115,000,000 We received distributions from equity affiliates of $585,000,000 Capital spending for the quarter was $370,000,000 including $221,000,000 for growth projects. We paid $404,000,000 in dividends.

Speaker 4

We ended the quarter with 481,000,000 shares outstanding, including the 42,000,000 shares issued for the PSXP merger. Moving to Slide 5. This slide highlights the change in adjusted results by segment from the Q4 to the Q1. During the period, adjusted earnings decreased $703,000,000 Driven by lower results across all segments. Slide 6 shows our midstream results.

Speaker 4

1st quarter adjusted Pretax income was $242,000,000 a decrease of $426,000,000 from the previous quarter. Transportation contributed adjusted pretax income of $278,000,000 in line with the previous quarter. NGL and other adjusted pretax income was $91,000,000 compared with $138,000,000 in the 4th quarter. The decrease was primarily due to the impact of rising prices on inventory, partially offset by improved butane and propane trading results. The fractionators of the Sweeny Hub averaged a record 423,000 barrels per day and the Freeport LPG export Facility loaded 43 cargoes in the Q1.

Speaker 4

Frac IV is ahead of schedule and we expect start up in the Q3. DCP Midstream adjusted pretax income of $31,000,000 was down $80,000,000 from the previous quarter, mainly driven by unfavorable hedging impacts, partially offset by lower operating costs. The hedge loss recognized in the Q1 was approximately $50,000,000 Compared with a hedging gain of approximately $50,000,000 in the 4th quarter. Beginning this quarter, we are showing our investment in Novonix At its own sub segment to separate it from our core midstream businesses. This investment is mark to market at the end of each reporting period.

Speaker 4

The fair value of the investment, including foreign exchange impacts, decreased $158,000,000 in the first quarter Compared with an increase of $146,000,000 in the 4th quarter. Our initial investment in the volume of $150,000,000 At a fair value of $362,000,000 at the end of the Q1. Turning to Chemicals on Slide 7. Chemicals' Q1 adjusted pretax income of $396,000,000 was down $28,000,000 from the 4th quarter. Dolphins and polyolefins adjusted pretax income was $377,000,000 The $28,000,000 decrease from the previous quarter Was primarily due to lower polyethylene margins as inventories normalized following supply disruptions last year.

Speaker 4

This was partially offset by higher sales volumes.

Speaker 5

Global O

Speaker 4

and P utilization was 99% for the quarter. Adjusted pre tax income for SA and S was $32,000,000 in line with the previous quarter. During the Q1, we received $299,000,000 in cash distributions from CPChem. Turning to refining on Slide 8. Refining 1st quarter adjusted pre tax income was $140,000,000 down from $404,000,000 in the 4th quarter.

Speaker 4

The decrease was mainly due to lower realized margins as well as lower clean product volumes driven by plant maintenance. Realized margins for the quarter decreased by 9% to $10.55 per barrel. Favorable impacts from higher market cracks We're more than offset by higher RIN costs, lower Gulf Coast clean product realizations and secondary product margins as well as inventory impacts. The higher RIN costs were primarily due to the 4th quarter recognition of the reduction in the 2021 compliance year obligation Of approximately $230,000,000 Pre tax turnaround costs were $102,000,000 down from $106,000,000 in the prior quarter. Crude utilization was 89% in the Q1 and clean product yield was 84%.

Speaker 4

Slide 9 covers market capture. The three-two-one market crack for the Q1 was $21.93 per barrel compared to $17.93 per barrel in the 4th quarter. Realized margin was $10.55 per barrel and resulted in an overall market capture of 48%. Market capture in the previous quarter was 65%. Market capture is impacted by the configuration of our refineries.

Speaker 4

Our refineries are more heavily weighted toward distillate production than the market indicator. The configuration impact was relatively flat quarter on quarter As lower clean product yield offset higher distillate cracks. Losses from secondary products of $3.05 per barrel We're $1.17 per barrel higher than the previous quarter due to rising crude prices. Our feedstock advantage of $1.01 per barrel improved Moving to Marketing and Specialties on Slide 10. Adjusted Q1 pretax income was $316,000,000 compared with $499,000,000 in the prior quarter.

Speaker 4

Marketing and other decreased $199,000,000 from the prior quarter. This was primarily due to lower marketing margins, mainly resulting from rising spot As well as seasonally lower demand. Refined product exports in the Q1 were 134,000 barrels per day. Specialties generated 1st quarter adjusted pre tax income of $113,000,000 up from $97,000,000 in the prior quarter, Mainly due to higher finished lubricant margins. Slide 11 shows the change in cash during the Q1.

Speaker 4

We had another strong quarter for cash generation. This was the 4th quarter in a row that cash flow from operations allowed us to return cash to shareholders, Invest in our business and strengthen the balance sheet. We started the quarter with a $3,100,000,000 cash balance. Cash from operations was $1,100,000,000 which covered $370,000,000 of capital spend and $404,000,000 for the dividend, While also increasing our cash balance by $188,000,000 Our ending cash balance was $3,300,000,000 In early April, We repaid $1,450,000,000 of maturing debt. This concludes my review of the financial and operating results.

Speaker 4

Next, I'll cover a few outlook items. In Chemicals, we expect the Q2 global O and P utilization rate to be in the mid-90s. In Refining, We expect the Q2 worldwide crude utilization rate to be in the low 90s and pretax turnaround expenses to be between $230,000,000 $250,000,000 We anticipate 2nd quarter corporate and other costs to come in between $230,000,000 $250,000,000 pretax. Now we will open the line for questions.

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. As we open the call for questions as a courtesy to all participants, please limit yourself to one question and a follow-up. Neil Mehta from Goldman Sachs, Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 6

Good morning team and Greg, you will be missed. Congratulations on your retirement and Mark, Congratulations on the new role.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Neil. Thanks, Neil.

Speaker 6

I want to pick up on the cost point that you talked About the business transformation, can you put more meat on the bones around this point and help us quantify what the upside potentially Be, either on a dollar barrel basis or across the fleet.

Speaker 3

Yes, we started this initiative last year We are looking at the entire organization and really it's more than just the cost reduction. That's the primary focus, but we want to focus on recurring cost reduction. We want that to be a run rate. So that $700,000,000 number, That's what we view as kind of the bare minimum that we have line of sight on and we are focused on Transforming the organization to ensure that that cost reduction is sustainable and we've got about 800 people, Employees and contractors working on that, we're looking at over 1,000 initiatives. So it's broad, it's deep.

Speaker 3

We're looking at simplifying structures, simplifying ways of working to ensure that that number is sustainable. So there's upside to it. I don't know that we want to quantify Any particular upside, but I guarantee you that we're relentlessly pursuing every opportunity across the organization.

Speaker 6

And Mark, is that's not just in refining, that's across the organization?

Speaker 3

That's correct, Neil.

Speaker 6

Okay. All right. And then the follow-up is around return of capital. Congratulations on being able to execute the Share repurchase program, again, just talk about your strategy around this, how you think about executing it going forward, When do you feel like you should be in the market and so on?

Speaker 2

Well, I think I'll take a stab and then Kevin and Mark I can come in. Neil, I think as we think about capital allocation, we think it's important to get back to a regular cadence in terms of The dividend and increasing the dividend. So that point was made, I think, in the opening comments. Certainly, share repurchases, We laid those down in 2020 as a result of the pandemic to preserve cash. And I think it's just time to get back to that.

Speaker 2

One of the great things I think that our opportunities we have is this tailwind we see in Our base business in refining, we're going to have excess cash. And I think that's going to give us the opportunity to increase Dividend buy shares back, pay down some more debt, at the same time build some cash on the balance sheet. But I would say we are As a team, our Board of Directors, we're laser focused on improving total shareholder return for our company.

Speaker 6

Thanks, guys.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Neil.

Operator

Phil Gresh from JPMorgan, please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 7

Good afternoon, Greg. Also wanted to say congratulations on a fantastic career. You've always been such a balanced spokesman and visionary for the energy sector and you will definitely be missed.

Speaker 2

I think so.

Speaker 7

If I could follow-up, I guess, just around shareholder returns, how do you think about like the pacing? I mean, are you Ready to move back to the sixty-forty that you've talked about. Kevin, I think you've talked about $12,000,000,000 gross debt target. Is that where you're still kind of eyeballing at this point and how much cash do you want to maintain on a regular basis? Thank you.

Speaker 4

Yes, Neil. So the $12,000,000,000 gross debt target puts us back to where we were before the pandemic. And while that target is still out there, we feel that we're now we're in a pace to where we've taken care of 3,000,000,000 Of the $4,000,000,000 we added, cash generation is strong. The outlook, at least in the near term, is very optimistic. We feel comfortable that we can get back into share repurchases while still maintaining some line of sight to getting back to a $12,000,000,000 or thereabouts level On the balance sheet, I'll just remind you that as we look at our debt maturity profile, we have a lot of flexibility over the next year or 12 year to 2 years with maturities And actually each of the next 4 years that are right there.

Speaker 4

So we're going to have a lot of optionality around that. I will say in theory, If debt reduction is part of the use of excess cash flow, then it becomes another component in the sixty-forty. And so we're going to be we'll have some balance between reinvesting in the business through the capital program, which we've said about $2,000,000,000 in aggregate for the next Couple of years returning funds to shareholders through the dividend, we're back in share repurchases, but also working on the balance sheet with A continued some form of cadence to debt reduction and increased cash as you highlighted. You look over the last Year and our quarterly cash balance I think has increased every quarter on quarter and while that trend will not necessarily continue Forever, we do feel comfortable that having a cash balance that we used to say is sort of $1,000,000,000 to $1,500,000,000 So the minimum cash level, we're probably looking more at a 2 to 3 level that we feel more comfortable with on an ongoing basis. It's not that we need that much cash, but it just provides us more flexibility.

Speaker 2

I think maybe what's also been left unsaid here this morning Yes. We've kind of given guidance about being very disciplined around our capital investments at our company and that we've kind of guided to $2,000,000,000 or less for this year and next And I would say that guidance is still on the table this morning.

Speaker 7

Okay, great. Thank you. Follow-up question on refining. I guess interesting comment that most of the money was made in March. It makes sense relative to what peers have said.

Speaker 7

You do have some higher maintenance, I guess, in the Q2. As you look at the full year, Are you still sticking with the $800,000,000 to $900,000,000 of maintenance? And if you could just elaborate a bit on the Central Corridor performance Well, there was a loss

Speaker 8

in the quarter. Thank you.

Speaker 9

Okay. I'll take a shot at I think there's 3 questions here, but I'll get them all. So I think we had primarily maintenance activity in the month of March and really the back half of March as the weather warmed up in the north, we've allowed us to get into turnaround mode, again, primarily in the central corridor. So we were We entered into that. We will have most of our turnaround activity wrapped up by mid May and certainly all of our conversion units will be back online Kind of middle of the month.

Speaker 9

It really positions us well then to run very strong throughout the summer And we won't come back to any significant turnaround activity until after Labor Day. I think on total activity for the year, we're really looking We've executed our first half plan and for the most part it's gone really according to what we planned. 2nd half, we continue to look at Primarily catalyst type change out turnarounds and do we have catalyst life left and we push some of those turnarounds into next year. We've got some opportunity there I think in the back half of the year to squeak some of those out into next spring or maybe even next fall. So we are constantly trying to re optimize Around all that.

Speaker 9

The other thing I would say about the Central Corridor results is we had a pretty good headwind In the Central Corridor with our lagged Canadian crude buying program. So that was a significant impact On a timing basis to what we saw as the results in the Central Quarter and it all basically lands there for us In our system. So that's a timing issue, has a lot to do with how quickly the crude ran up particularly in the back couple of weeks of the quarter. We'll get that back over time as crude prices come off as they seem to always do and then we'll see it come back.

Speaker 4

Yes. And just Phil, in terms of the impact of that in the Central Corridor, it's about $3 per barrel on the realized margin Impact through that crude timing effect.

Speaker 7

Okay, great. Thank you.

Operator

Doug Leggate from Bank of America, please go ahead with your question. Your line is open.

Speaker 10

Thank you, everyone. Greg, needless to say, I'll add my thanks and congratulations to Both of you guys and I hope we get I'm trying to encourage Jeff to do a retirement dinner for the sell side, Greg. So hopefully You can make that up. I'm not sure.

Speaker 2

I'm not sure. I'm not sure.

Speaker 10

Well, I will move mountains to be there, but thanks for I think all your insights and help over the years. Mark, look forward to seeing how you steer the company. So fellas, I've got 2 one Big picture question. Also I want to ask a bit of a philosophical question, perhaps for both of you guys. First of all, On the industry level, look, we've obviously I think you're all familiar with our opinion and where we think we stand right now.

Speaker 10

But you have humber. And like Valero, you have insights to what's happening in Europe. And obviously, you are also responsible for shutting down to The facilities in the U. S. By the time we get to the end of next year.

Speaker 10

So when you look at the structural shift that we appear to be going through right now, I'm just curious what you're thinking in terms of are we seeing the U. S. Move to a whole new level And the mid cycle advantage, if you like, relative to international, dare I say European peers and obviously Humber gives you some insights to that.

Speaker 9

Yes, Doug, it's Bob. I'll take a shot and others can come in over the top. I think the last time we talked, I think it was at the beginning of your call on the golden age of refining. We were talking about the structural differences.

Speaker 10

U. S. Refining.

Speaker 9

And at the time, right, gas prices were just they were skyrocketing in Europe and we had inside Humber being By far the strongest refiner in the UK and a very strong refiner in Europe in particular and one that doesn't use a lot of Fuel gas, right. We're structurally advantaged there with large coking capacity and generating most of our own needs, But it gave us a view. And at the time, Humber was just kind of in a breakeven position. So we talked about the fact that European refiners had to be underwater and that the market would have to move to incent those marginal refiners to keep running and get back to making Clean diesel and in fact that's exactly what we've seen happen, right. Diesel cracks have come up to since that Humber's return To good profitability and the whole market work.

Speaker 9

Sometimes it takes a while for that structure to kind of get itself right, but again the market work. I don't really see this changing anytime, right? Gas prices are up in the U. S, but certainly not anywhere near what we're seeing yet in Europe and It really puts us at a structural advantage. If you add in the fact that Europe is basically hydrocracker based, They use a lot of hydrogen.

Speaker 9

You got to buy a lot of fuel gas to make hydrogen for the most part. It does give us a cost advantage and one that should All the way back through improved kind of mid cycle margins for U. S. Refining versus the rest of the Western Hemisphere. And Brian, if you got anything you want to add?

Speaker 11

Well, I would just add that in the UK where we have our large refinery, gas prices have come off quite a bit Last night settled at $16 an MMBtu versus most of Europe, which is still over $30 But Our guesstimate is about $8 to $9 benefit through the U. S. Versus the EU Given the price of natural gas here and the price of natural gas in the EU currently.

Speaker 1

And probably an advantage also on crude feedstock With light sweet crudes having been traded up in Europe relative to the U. S.

Speaker 10

First of all, Bob, just for everyone listening, your insights were extremely valuable as we prepared that thought. So thank you for that. So guys, my philosophical thought, and Greg and Mark, I think when we look back over the last 5 years, the volatility, the challenges that you guys are, Greg in particular, have had to navigate, your strategy Obviously, moved to be more defensive, if I say diversify from refining. And obviously, if we've got this reset going forward, you're

Speaker 7

perhaps a little less exposed than some of your peers. So when

Speaker 10

we look at your Perhaps a little less exposed than some of your peers. So when we look at your relative share of performance over that 5 year period, it seems to us you've behaved more like an integrated and a refiner. So I'm curious, Mark, as you look forward, how do you think about differentiating the investment case relative to that, let's say, Pure clarifying peer group as opposed to the more, I guess, glacial kind of share Buy buy type of situation we're now starting to see with some of the majors. How do you think about the relative investment case? And I'll leave it there.

Speaker 10

Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yes, I think that Doug, the relative investment case really revolves around a couple of different things. We First of all, we want to make sure that we take care of our refineries that we operate them well. They're going to you've referenced the North American Golden Age. We want to make sure that we Are able to be a full participant in that, but then as we generate cash, what do we do with that? I think there's a number of things we want to do around refining Position our refineries for the long term.

Speaker 3

So to drive them more towards the refinery of the future maybe producing more petrochemicals, we'll continue So you look for growth opportunities through CPChem. They've got 2 mega projects teed up, but they've got several midsized projects and then they've got a lot of debottlenecks The build on their advantage. So they've got good high return opportunities to drive down the refining side of things. And then We continue to look for where we're going to play in emerging energies and we see some real opportunities to leverage our existing assets and to leverage our technologies To create sustainable value in emerging energy. So think about it as and then there's midstream that we've got opportunities In midstream to both optimize our midstream asset base as well as drive some consolidation there.

Speaker 3

So So we've got that leg as well. So we'll continue to drive down those segments, each a little unique, but each delivering value in its own way.

Speaker 10

Understood. Thanks a lot, fellows and congratulations again, Greg. Thanks, Doug.

Operator

Roger Read from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 12

Thank you. Good morning. And yes, my congratulations to you, Greg, and to you, Mark, for getting to Take over and step into a big pair of shoes to fill.

Speaker 3

Yes, they are big indeed. Thanks, Ryan.

Speaker 12

Just to jump on in here, I guess the first thing if I look at your presentation, I know I'm going to make Jeff squirm a little bit here, But, well, the amount that you can earn in terms of guidance on diesel margins, And Greg, this will be near and dear to your heart. You've talked so many times about Phillips as it really benefits from diesel or the distillate crack. I'm not even going to throw the numbers out there if I were to calculate off a New York Harbor diesel crack right now. But What is the right way for us to think about what Phillips can do in this environment? I know you got turnarounds, but everybody always has turnarounds.

Speaker 12

Just how we should think about some of that guidance and some of the capture possibilities On the refining side?

Speaker 1

Yes. I think the focus is going to be on operating Well, and being in the market and able to take advantage of the margins that are available. I think we've talked about some of the exposures that we have on diesel, on heavy sourdiffs, On premium cokes and all of those environments look favorable as we look into The summer months. I think there's some moving parts. We were hindered this quarter on timing issues with In the Gulf Coast on product timing and in the Central Corridor on crude Seeing and timing issues there.

Speaker 1

So I think those will normalize out and we'll see that profitability show up in later periods.

Speaker 12

Okay. But I mean, I guess just to clarify, is the Should we presume that the broad guidance is still pretty reasonable even at these levels? There's not some sort of deterioration we should think about and capture as we go forward?

Speaker 2

No, I don't think we see that. I mean, Brian can speak to what we're seeing in the current market. Again, it's hard to predict net income, but I watch cash. And we've seen just cash just strengthening as we've come in the back half of March and on into April.

Speaker 13

And so I mean that

Speaker 2

to me that suggests that capture rates Definitely have improved. Brian, I'll let you comment.

Speaker 11

I would add that as Jeff said timing is an issue. So prices continue to increase from here There'll be a lag in terms of the amount of money that we can capture, but we will capture that over time. But in terms of the crack margins, We are absolutely in a position to capture those and we do every day.

Speaker 1

I think one thing I would emphasize, Roger, just The amount of volatility that we're seeing on a daily basis with crude trading in a $5 to $10 a barrel range on a daily basis And products, especially diesel trading in wide range on a daily basis, that average crack you see at the end of the day, there was a lot done Across that period of time. And so I think when we see this kind of volatility, the indicators are not going to be As accurate as they typically are when volatility is not so high.

Speaker 12

Well, that's fair. There's a lot of room For error given where cracks are right now. One follow-up question. The $700,000,000 cost savings goal, How does that fit into what was laid out in the fall of 'nineteen? And I know a lot of things happened since the fall of 'nineteen, but how How should we think about that $700,000,000 within the overall framework that was laid out at that point?

Speaker 3

Roger, this is going to build on what we did around Adanage 66. There were a lot of things done there, a lot of value captured, some things removed out into the future, some things were captured in one off fashion, a lot of digital Innovation was introduced and we're going to leverage those innovations to simplify what we do to drive efficiencies in the organization. So this is additive to that.

Speaker 12

So should we think about it's just a logical next step in the process. It's not iterative as opposed to like something brand new or radically different. Well, this yes, it's

Speaker 3

Well, this yes, it's building on that. It's probably getting more into the organization Structure as well and how we can capture efficiencies and transform how we drive our business. We're not going to change What we do, but how we do it, I think will become more efficient. So I think it does build on it and is additive to that.

Speaker 1

Yes, there is a substantial incremental effort that's

Speaker 10

going into

Speaker 1

place now.

Speaker 12

No, I understand that. I appreciate it. Thank you.

Operator

Ryan Todd from Piper Sandler. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 7

Great. Thanks.

Speaker 5

Maybe a follow-up on chemicals from some of your comments earlier. 1st quarter was a very strong quarter. I think we came into this year and I think your messaging had been expecting margins to trend back towards mid cycle levels From the peaks that we saw last year, but it seems like they may have inflected a little bit higher lately. Can you talk about how you see the market trending from here And how market dynamics in crude and natural gas pricing are driving relative advantages in your portfolio versus European and Asian plants?

Speaker 3

Yes. Thanks, Ryan. I think that your closing comment really touched on it that since the last call with crude moving up and Ethane to the crude advantage becoming enhanced that's driven margins wider for TP Chem and the entire industry and we're well positioned to take advantage of ethane both here in the U. S. And in the Middle East.

Speaker 3

So That's there and I think that's going to persist. You're going to see the ethane extraction value Driven to a point to attract more ethane out as more consumption comes online, that consumption is going to provide a headwind in new As we go into seasonally stronger margins, so you kind of see those two things balancing off each other. So we see Kind of a status quo on those margins going forward into the next quarter.

Speaker 5

Great. Thanks. That's helpful. And then Maybe can you talk about any updates that you have on timing of permits at Rodeo, The next steps in the process there and maybe what you've seen in terms of the operating environment for the renewable diesel volumes that you've been able to Produced so far year to date?

Speaker 9

Yes, Bob. The permitting process is really moving forward quite well and as we expected, We've had conditional approval from the Planning Commission in Contra Costa County As usual in that part of the world, it was appealed. It goes to the County Board of Supervisors who have actually set a special meeting to address our permit on May 3rd. Coming out of that, we would expect the Board of Supervisors to grant the permit and allow us To start work shortly after that. Everything we can see, we've got good support in that community.

Speaker 9

They realize that, while there's great drive in California to have Alternative vehicles and everything else in the marketplace that renewable diesel is a needed fuel now And the quicker we can get going, the quicker we can get the unit up and running and starting to provide those fuels to the California driving public. So we expect that permit to come Here just very, very shortly. On the Unit 250, the renewables moving around in there. We continue to see profitability on that unit. And really what we've come to understand is that the price of soybean oil, the price of California diesel, the price of low carbon fuel standard credits, RINs, Cap and trade, they all seem to sort of work in concert to incent us to continue to make renewable diesel and put it in the marketplace.

Speaker 9

So we're very encouraged By what we see there kind of on the commercial side and we're very happy with what we've learned on the operating side about how to run Bean oil type feedstocks through the units. So we're really looking forward to the next phase and getting Rodeo Renewed, permitted, hopefully next week and then get going and look for start up in early 2024.

Speaker 11

And I would add we're able to get all the volume out of Unit 250 to the end consumer through our retail and wholesale network In California.

Speaker 5

That's great. Thanks. And congratulations Greg on the retirement and Mark on the new position. It's been

Speaker 10

a pleasure with both of you. Thank you. Thanks.

Operator

Manav Gupta with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 14

I have a more of a strategy question here. For a long time, midstream was a growth vehicle For PSX to grow earnings, now you've brought in PSXP, how should we think about midstream growth here? Is it Basically going to be a small growth or if you actually come across a really good opportunity, which is even capital intensive, Then you would still be willing to invest capital and grow the midstream business even though PSXP doesn't exist. So help us understand now Where does midstream sit in terms of your overall growth strategy going ahead?

Speaker 15

Manav, this is Tom. Thanks for the question. Hey, When you think about it with the roll off, that simplification helps us both commercially as well as takes out some complexities in dealing with reporting and what we do And takes out some cost in that process. So you roll it out, but our strategy really hasn't changed. Fundamentally, yes, we were on a very Fast growth trajectory, a lot of opportunities.

Speaker 15

We built out the MLP and built out our midstream business. But as we've said before, We've slowed that down because the pipes appear to be in place, infrastructure is well caught up. So in our world, we're looking at optimization and how we can best find incremental high return opportunities and optimize our set as well as build out our Further NGL integration. So if the right opportunity comes up, it's going to compete like all our projects do. And if it meets the right threshold and it's the right thing to do overall from PSX view, it would be considered.

Speaker 15

But outside of that, we're really optimizing the kit at this point in time.

Speaker 14

And then the second is more on the growing the energy transition business. So I think the first part of the question is obviously, You have a very good project in Rodeo. Would you like to do it all alone? Because some of what you're seeing out there is people bringing in partners for capital and other So the first part of the question is, would you like to keep it the renewable diesel project on to yourself or you're open to a partner? And second part is, Besides this bigger project of Rodeo, what else can PSX do to grow its cleaner fuel franchise or energy transition business?

Speaker 14

Thank you.

Speaker 11

Well, I would say with Rodeo, we haven't funded through our capital program this year next. So we don't need a partner in that way. Some folks have gotten a partner because they need a commercial expertise. We have a very strong commercial organization. We've been buying used cooking oil for a long time.

Speaker 11

As you know, we have a deal With a soybean producer, we have run soybean, canola oil, distilled corn oil in the Rodeo Unit 250, we met with tallow producers and have fees to buy tallow as well. So we are in a very good position. Our marketing business is building out portfolio so we can sell the renewable diesel to the end users. So We don't really need the expertise that others might need and we don't need the funding.

Speaker 3

As far as other opportunities, we are Doing things at our Humber Refinery today, the rules are a little different in the U. K. Than they are in the U. S. So they can co process Renewable feedstocks through their facility and they're producing sustainable aviation fuel today that they're Flying to British Airways and so there are British Airways planes flying today using sustainable aviation fuel from Humber.

Speaker 3

We can also if the economics Drive it. We can produce sustainable aviation fuel at Rodeo when we have the facility fully on stream. And So it's going to be what are the economic drivers. We're looking at other opportunities, other technical routes to sustainable aviation fuel. They're still under development.

Speaker 3

But ultimately, we think that sustainable aviation fuel has legs. It's difficult to fly planes with other things other than hydrocarbons And we've had a number of airlines, a number of jet manufacturers approach us, helping to look for solutions for their future. So We see both renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel as great opportunities.

Speaker 14

Thank you.

Operator

Teresa Chen from Barclays. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 16

Hi. Thanks for taking my questions and want to offer my congratulations to Greg as well. May your peace of mind go up and your handicap go down, Greg. Congratulations to Mark on the new role. I wanted to revisit the discussion on chem, Just because your margin came in a lot stronger than your indicator and sensitivity would have suggested, how much of this is owed to the portion of your

Speaker 7

sales that are contracted by nature

Speaker 16

versus sold on a spot basis? Of your sales that are contracted by nature versus sold on a spot basis. And if you can, can you help us break down like the portion of each on a run rate basis?

Speaker 3

Yes. I think that in that universe, there's the contractual commitments are a little bit fuzzier than you might be used In other environments, I don't know that there's that they're seeing any margin capture do that. Our CPChem's margins contracted Substantially less than the IHS marker and I think that that has to do with product mix more than anything that the high density Business that is their primary driver, it came up A little slower than the marker and now it's coming off slower than the marker. And so it's really driven by that and perhaps Some discipline in how they're managing the business, but I don't know that there's a great driver in their contractual position That you can attribute that to.

Speaker 16

Got it. And on the OpEx reduction side, The $700,000,000 number, just to clarify, does that compare to the State of OpEx where you had alliance within your system or is that pro form a of the alliance shutdown?

Speaker 3

That is in addition to the Alliance shutdown.

Speaker 16

Thank you.

Operator

Matthew Blair from TPH. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 13

Hey, thanks for taking my questions. Greg, congrats on a great run and Mark, congrats on the new role here. Mark, my question is on the chem side. I think in the past you've talked about opportunities in hydrogen, but more so on the refining side. And so I was wondering If CPChem has any hydrogen opportunities and if so could you maybe flush those out?

Speaker 3

CPChem really is a Technically a producer of hydrogen out of the large steam crackers. They've got relationships often that allow them to monetize that. It has to be cleaned up, but or some of it's consumed as fuel in the facility. So There probably is an opportunity for CPChem to grow that presence as they grow their cracking capabilities.

Speaker 13

Okay. And then could you talk about the general trend in marketing margins so In the Q2, has there been any sort of recovery compared to the low numbers in Q1?

Speaker 11

Generally, marketing margins are better in the Q2, just seasonality. But the headwind we have typically marketing margins now are the rising price Margins don't move as quickly as the rising prices in the marketplace. So we'll see we would expect To do slightly better next quarter, but we'll see depending on where the prices of products go.

Speaker 13

Sounds good. Thanks.

Operator

Jason Gabelman from Cowen. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 17

Hey, thanks for taking my questions and congrats Greg on your retirement and Mark on the new role. I have 2. The first, there's been some conflicting comments between what the DOE is putting out And what some of your peers are saying in terms of demand, particularly on the gasoline side. And so I'm wondering if you're seeing Demand destruction in your system consistent with what the DOE has been showing weekly or if demand is holding up? And then my second question is kind of I guess a broader longer term refining question.

Speaker 17

Greg, you've probably been More bearish than your peers on the refining margin outlook in the past. This is obviously A pretty insanely strong margin environment that we're in right now. I'm just wondering how you expect This ought to play out over time and if these higher margins are here for a good while or if You'll see some maybe normalization and what would drive that? Thanks.

Speaker 2

So I'll take a stab and then Brian can come out. So I mean we had the luxury of a diversified portfolio. We've had the opportunity to be bullish about other parts of our business. And for the most part, I think we're probably right on those calls. And you think about We started in 'twelve with $450,000,000 of EBITDA midstream and we're $2,200,000,000 $2,300,000,000 today.

Speaker 5

So really

Speaker 2

kind of the strategy of growing a more highly valued business in terms of multiple some of the parts, etcetera. I would tell you though that as we're coming into this year on the refining business, we're probably as constructive on refining. So we've been a long time. I think that's a combination of the capacity that we've seen shut down over the last 24 months. The capacity, new builds has Either been delayed or slowed down that's coming on where we see global inventories today and where we see global demand.

Speaker 2

So I think that whole combination together really puts us in what I think is going to be mid cycle or better environment for refining For the next 12 months, 24 months time. And Brian, you can comment on what we're seeing in real time.

Speaker 11

Hi, Jason. It's Brian. So in terms of demand In the U. S, we're seeing everywhere but on the West Coast demand back to 2019 levels on the West Coast, they got COVID a little later than the rest of the country and prices have been So we've seen a bit of demand trimming. So they're a little bit lower, but we've seen very good demand on the distillate side, demand over 2019 globally, so we're pretty happy there as well.

Speaker 11

I think inventories are really the driver, gasoline inventories at 5 year lows And distillate inventories are the lowest they've been since May of 2008 and PADD 1 is the lowest it's been since April of 1996. So With these low inventories, we would expect to see strong demand going forward.

Speaker 17

Great. Thanks for the answers.

Operator

Paul Cheng from Scotiabank, please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 8

Hey, guys. Good morning. Good morning, still your time. Great. I want to congratulations for your retirement.

Speaker 8

It has been a fun 10 year ride. And Mark, congratulations on the new role Going forward, two questions. I think one is really short one. At the beginning of I think the company put out a turnaround expense, say, call it $800,000,000 to $900,000,000 Based on earlier comments, is that still a good estimate or that number has been changed? Because It doesn't look like you have mentioned there's a lot of major turnaround.

Speaker 8

There's more catalyst change. And the first half of the year, the spending is Only about, say, $330,000,000 or $350,000,000 range. So I want to see that how So we look at overall spending level from the turnaround standpoint. Secondly, If the company believe the energy transition is happening and may even accelerate at some point, In your midstream business, your transportation system is linked directly To the gasoline and diesel demand in this country. And so from that standpoint, maybe it's a curve for Mark.

Speaker 8

Longer term, over the next 3 or 4 years, will the company start to deemphasize or maybe that scale back in that segment And trying to reposition and put the capital into some place else.

Speaker 9

I'll take a shot at the turnaround again. As we talked, we're finishing up the turnaround program that we had for the first half and we've guided towards Total of about $340,000,000 of spend in the 1st part of this year. During the summer, during gasoline season, right, we're prepared to run hard and so We won't have any turnarounds again until the fall. We continue to look at all of our turnarounds that are in the back half of the year, Catalyst Life and can we push those out? We expect to push some of those turnarounds out.

Speaker 9

We're not ready to update the guidance yet. But I think you can expect that We will spend less money on turnarounds than we originally guided to as we are able to slide some of those out of the back half of 'twenty two into 'twenty three.

Speaker 3

Paul, on the energy transition impact on the midstream assets, We've got a diversity of pipelines in our midstream business and you go from the NGL side, Which we think has got tremendous upside potential for the long term, primarily delivering to Petrochemical facilities and exports, things like propane and butane as well. And so we see a very, very long horizon For those pipes, the crude pipes bringing crude into our refineries and then taking refined clean products out of those refineries, Those will evolve with what our refineries produce and we believe that liquid hydrocarbons are going to be around for a long time, but we're going to look at ways to lower the carbon The intensity of the products lower the carbon intensity of the operations. There may be opportunities to repurpose those assets for other molecules That will emerge from the energy transition. So we're always looking at how we can maximize the value of our midstream assets, Repurpose them. We do that today and we'll do that in the future as well.

Operator

Prashant Rao with Citi. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 18

Hi, thanks for taking the question and I'd like to echo congratulations, Greg. It's been Great getting to know you and hearing your outlook and all your thoughts on the energy industry at large. And Mark, look forward to working with you more and Congratulations. I'll keep it to 1. Just on Chemicals and this is a bit bigger picture.

Speaker 18

You talked about incremental projects that are north of 20% Return on invested capital and looking back the last time like several years ago when there was an announced expansion when you had projects in the queue, It was a higher margin environment and you targeted pretty good returns. And since then what happened is we all know that margin environment kind of compressed, But you were still able to hit targets. You were at high teens to low 20s, ROCE's, combination of expenses, volume increases. I'm curious because there seems to be history sometimes doesn't repeat itself, but it sometimes rhymes. We're coming out of a high margin environment in chemicals right now and it seems to be settling slowly.

Speaker 18

So just wondering, as you look ahead with the cost takeout, where the margin outlook is and volumes, Can you kind of triangulate? You've done it before, obviously, historically it's shown up and you're able to hit those return targets. But as we look forward now, just could you help sort of piece together What are the levers to sort of ensure that that's sort of the lower end of the return range we could be at with it just like it did I guess post-twenty 14? And I'll leave it with that.

Speaker 3

Thank you. It's a great question. CPChem has got a long history of executing mega projects and have Really never tried to time them to any particular market conditions. They focus on the fundamentals, the long term growth in ethylene demand, The long term growth in polyethylene demand both at a multiple of GDP as we go forward. And so that's what drives the opportunities.

Speaker 3

And then we think about that growth, we put those assets where we can access low cost feedstocks. And today and for the foreseeable future, we see that as ethane. That's why you see us doing something in the U. S. Around the U.

Speaker 3

S. Gulf Coast 2 project that's why you see us looking at another project in Qatar to take advantage of large baseload infrastructure and advantaged Feedstocks that we can tap into and I think that's what delivers the long term value, staying focused on those fundamentals and not getting caught up in any short term dislocations and then having an outstanding ability to take those products into the marketplace and capture value

Operator

We have reached the end of today's call. I'll now turn the call back over to Jeff.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Erica, and thank all of you for your interest in Phillips 66. If you have further questions, please contact Shannon or me. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect.

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Earnings Conference Call
Phillips 66 Q1 2022
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