Cincinnati Financial Q1 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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April 29, 2022

There are 9 speakers on the call.

Operator

You all for standing by, and welcome to the CINF First Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Please note that all lines will be in listen only mode until the question and answer session of today's conference. Please also note that today's call is being recorded. I'll now turn the call over to your host, Dennis McDaniel, Investor Relations Officer. Sir, you may now begin.

Speaker 1

Hello. This is Dennis McDaniel at Cincinnati Financial. Thank you for joining us for our Q1 2022 earnings conference call. Late yesterday, we issued a news release on our results along with our supplemental financial package, including our quarter end investment portfolio. To find copies of any of these documents, in the navigation menu on the far left.

Speaker 1

On this call, you'll first hear from Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Steve Johnston and then from Chief Financial Officer, Mike Sewell. After their prepared remarks, investors participating on the call may ask questions. At that time, some responses may be made by others in the room with us, including Chief Investment Officer, Marty Hollenbeck and Cincinnati Insurance's President, Steve Spray Chief Claims Officer, Mark Shambo and Senior Vice President of Corporate Finance, Theresa Hopper. First, please note that some of the matters to be discussed today are forward looking. These forward looking statements involve certain risks and uncertainties.

Speaker 1

With respect to these risks and uncertainties, we direct your attention to our news release and to our various filings with the SEC. Also, a reconciliation of non GAAP measures was provided with the news release. Statutory accounting data is prepared in accordance with statutory Now I'll turn over the call to Steve.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Dennis, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today to hear more about our Q1 results. It was another quarter of good operating performance. Our agency focused strategy led to profitable growth and reflects well on the skill and dedication of our associates and excellent relationships with terrific independent agents. We reported a net loss of $273,000,000 for the quarter due to the recognition of a reduction in the fair value of securities held in our equity portfolio.

Speaker 2

Non GAAP operating income for the first Our 89.9 percent 1st quarter propertycasualty combined ratio was 1.3 percentage points better than last year's Q1. The current accident year loss and loss expense ratio before catastrophe loss effects rose slightly compared with accident year 20 We again managed our business to healthy levels of policy retention with meaningful average renewal price increases for each of our Casualty Insurance segments. Policy retention rates for both commercial and personal lines improved from a year ago to the upper 80% range. Consolidated property casualty net written premiums rose 12% Our pricing segmentation efforts continue to support what we believe is profitable growth as our underwriters work to retain and write more profitable accounts while taking appropriate action on opportunities that we determine have inadequate pricing. We also believe renewal pricing during the Q1 was again ahead of our estimate for prospective loss cost trends for each Property Casualty segment.

Speaker 2

Our Commercial Lines Insurance segment continued to experience Estimated average renewal price increases in the mid single digit percentage range similar to the 4th quarter. In the Q1, personal lines average renewal price increases slowed by a small amount compared to the Q4, remaining in the low single digit range. Our excess and surplus lines insurance segment continued in the high single digit range. Our Commercial Lines segment grew Q1 2022 net written premiums by 8% with a combined ratio of 92 point 3%. Our personal lines segment net written premium grew 11%, reflecting our continued planned expansion of high net worth business produced by our agencies.

Speaker 2

The segment's 1st quarter combined ratio of 83.9 percent improved 17.2 percentage points from a year ago, driven by lower catastrophe losses. Our excess and surplus lines segment had an 85.9% combined ratio and continued strong growth With Q1 2022 net written premiums rising by 25%. Cincinnati Re and Cincinnati Global each had a nice Quarter with healthy growth. Cincinnati Re grew net written premiums by 30% for the Q1 2022 with a combined ratio in the mid-ninety percent range. Cincinnati Global grew net written premiums by 24% with the combined ratio also in the mid-ninety percent range.

Speaker 2

Our life insurance subsidiary generated Q1 2022 net income of $10,000,000 matching last year's Q1 and grew term life insurance earned premiums by 6%. I'll conclude with the value creation ratio, our primary measure of long term financial performance. VCR was negative 6.9 percent for the quarter, while net income before investment gains or losses contributed 1.9 percentage points, Lower investment valuations during the quarter resulted in the investment gains or losses component contributing negative 8.6 points. Now, our Chief Financial Officer, Mike Sewell, will highlight several other important aspects of our financial performance.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Steve, and thanks to all of you for joining us today. Investment income again grew at a good pace, up 6% For the Q1 of 2022 compared with the same period a year ago, 1st quarter dividend income was up 12% And net equity securities purchase totaled $34,000,000 Bond interest income grew 4% in the 1st quarter, While the pre tax average yield of 4.01 percent for the quarter was down 13 basis points from a year ago, The average pretax yield for the total of purchased taxable and tax exempt bonds during the Q1 2022 was 3.64%. We again purchased additional fixed maturity securities with net purchases during the quarter totaling $109,000,000 Valuation changes for our investment portfolio during the Q1 of 2022 At the end of the Q1, total investment portfolio net appreciated value was approximately $6,600,000,000 including $46,000,000 for our bond portfolio. Cash flow again helped to grow investment income. Cash flow from operating activities for the Q1 2022 generated $198,000,000 compared to $354,000,000 a year ago.

Speaker 3

Balancing strategic investments in our business with for profit sharing commissions for agencies and related expenses. Regarding loss reserves, We aim for a consistent approach by targeting net amounts in the upper half of the actuarially estimated range of net loss and loss expense reserves. As we do each quarter, we consider new information such as paid losses and case reserves and then updated estimate ultimate losses and loss expenses by accident year in line of business. During Q1 of 2022, we experienced $41,000,000 of property casualty, Net favorable development on prior accident years have benefited the combined ratio by 2.5 percentage points. In recent years, we've experienced significant growth in commercial umbrella coverage within our commercial casualty lines of business, including 16% in 2021 as industry pricing for Umbrella has been strong.

Speaker 3

Umbrella losses tend to be frequently relatively infrequent with high severity And we recently experienced an elevated level of large losses, particularly for accident year 2019. Due to increased uncertainty for our Umbrella business, we strengthened reserves for certain accident years and estimated ultimate losses for accident year 2022 at what we believe is a prudent level. On an all lines basis by accident year, net reserve development for the quarter was favorable by $46,000,000 for 2021, $24,000,000 for 2022, unfavorable by $28,000,000 for 2019 and unfavorable by $1,000,000 in aggregate for accident years prior to 2019. Now let me turn to capital management. We continue to follow a consistent approach that includes share repurchases as part of maintenance intended to offset the issuance of shares through equity compensation plans.

Speaker 3

However, Changing circumstances or opportunities can influence us to repurchase more or less than historical averages. We believe that our quarter end financial strength was excellent and provides ample financial flexibility. During the Q1 of 2022, we repurchased 375,000 shares at an average price per share of $120.05 I'll conclude my prepared remarks as I usually do with a summary of 1st quarter contributions to book value per share. They represent the main drivers of our value creation ratio. Property casualty underwriting increased Life insurance operations increased book value 0 point 0 $6 Investment income other than life insurance and net of non insurance items added $0.53 Net investment gains and losses for the fixed income decreased book value by $3.33 and we declared $0.69 per share in dividends to shareholders.

Speaker 3

The net effect was a book value decrease of $6.29 per share during the Q1 to $75.43 per share. And now, I'll turn the call back over to Steve.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Mike. It's satisfying to see the steady execution of our initiatives producing these strong results. March April brought a return of business travel and a return of our headquarters associates working together in person. It's wonderful to see so many familiar faces in the hallway and to be able to get out from behind our desk to visit with agents and our field teams across the country. This return to a bit of normalcy has produced an energy you can feel across our organization, bringing with it lots of optimism for the future of Cincinnati Financial.

Speaker 2

As a reminder, with Mike and me today are Steve Spray, Mark Chambault, Marty Hollenbeck and Teresa Hopper. Jesse, please open the call for questions.

Operator

Thank you, speakers. Participants, we will now begin the question and answer session. Speakers, our first question is from the line of Meyer Shields of KBW. Your line is now open.

Speaker 4

Thanks. I apologize if you covered this. I didn't think I caught it, but there seems to have been a lot of Losses above $1,000,000 like in $1,000,000 to $5,000,000 range. Is that inflation or is that just random noise or anything else?

Speaker 2

Meyer, this is Steve and good question. We think it's more in the random noise category for this Q1. Certainly inflation we're keeping a close eye on and so forth, but it's 1 quarter it was largely in our property lines and We will continue to keep close eye on, but we think it was more random noise and it did reflect about 4 points on the current accident year when comparing it to that 0.9% Increase overall in the current accident year.

Speaker 4

Okay. That's helpful. Second question, When we've been seeing, I guess, some level of wage inflation, which is clearly helping, I guess, with workers' compensation premiums. Is it the sense that the impact on same costs for indemnity are in line with that? Or is there any disparity with how with the premium and the loss impacts of higher wages?

Speaker 2

Yes. We're keeping a close eye on that as well because With payroll being the exposure basis for workers' compensation, it should help on the premium side. Also, we've got the inflation. I think our we feel confident in our workers' comp book. It's the loss have been rising as the competitive environment in the industry and NCCI have decreased rates, but we still feel Good in terms of what we've done in terms of really working workers' compensation down as a percentage of our overall commercial premium, But at the same time supporting agents and on what we feel to be the best risk, the most adequately priced risks.

Speaker 4

Okay, thanks. And if I can throw in one other real quick question. 1 of the competitors in the high net worth homeowners space Talked about double digit loss trends. Does that match what you're seeing in your book?

Speaker 2

No, I don't think we've been seeing double digit loss trends in our book. No.

Speaker 4

Okay. I'm all set. Thank you so much.

Speaker 2

And we do feel good about the high net worth book.

Speaker 4

Thank you, Meyer. Thank you.

Operator

Speakers' next question is from the line of Mark Dwelle of RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

Speaker 5

Yes, good morning. I've got a few questions. So, Maher kind of touched on it a little bit, but I guess The increase in the current accident year loss ratio in the commercial line segment, Is that primarily attributable to the number of large losses in the quarter or is there kind of more at work beneath the surface there?

Speaker 2

Yes. And if we would break the commercial lines segment down, the current accident year rose by 1.2 points and the Effect of large losses on that was 5.1 points. So well more than The amount of the total increase in the current accident year.

Speaker 5

So if I mean, there must be some normalized Kind of large loss load though that would be kind of embedded in a normal combined ratio. So if I was to try to If your large losses were more like normal, would there have been, I guess, a 2 or 3 point improvement, I guess, in the So your loss ratio kind of all else equal?

Speaker 2

That's a good question. I don't have the Handy, we've got it. But the over time there, but I can tell you for the quarter of the Q1 here of 2022, It was 8.6 points in total and large losses over $1,000,000 for the current accident year. For the Q1 of 2021, it was 3.5. So that difference This is the 5.1 that I just mentioned.

Speaker 2

So I feel it's more of a feeling right now, not having the numbers, but that 3.5 Seems more normal, feels more normal. Got it. Okay. Mark,

Speaker 6

this is I'm sorry.

Speaker 5

Go ahead.

Speaker 6

This is Steve Spray, Mark. I was just going to add that it's normal process for us on any large loss that We take a look at risk category, geography, policy inception date And agency or field marketing territory to see if we can see any trends or patterns and we have not. And like Steve said, we feel It's 1 quarter and I think it's going to be more important to look at it over a longer period of time, but it is something that we absolutely watch on a regular basis.

Speaker 5

Okay. Thank you. That was helpful.

Speaker 2

While we still have you Mark Dennis, as usual is quick to help me out The with the numbers and in terms of the what we're seeing, I could Turning you to Page 65 of our Q and or is it the K? The K. I'm sorry, the K. And there it is more I would say a little bit higher than what I said more in the 4% range. The last 2021 was for the current accident year losses above $1,000,000 $4,200,000 $3,600,000 for 2020 and 4.6 percent for 19.

Speaker 2

And then we had another for that over $5,000,000 So that was in the range of $1,000,000 to $5,000,000 1.8, 0.9 and 0.5 respectively. So more in that, say 5, 5.5 range for that.

Speaker 5

Okay. That's helpful. It definitely helps clarify kind of what the more normalized run rate might really look like. Crane conflict either via the Cincinnati RE or the Cincinnati Global book. I know historically you've written some aviation, but I didn't know if there was anything that might be impacted.

Speaker 2

Yes. We it wouldn't be in Aviation, but we have had A little bit of loss in CGU. It's about $5,000,000 So not a big amount to the organization. And really hearts go out to all the people there in Ukraine for the suffering that's going on. For Cincinnati Re, it's de minimis in terms of loss and We'll continue to keep an eye on it, but about $5,000,000 for us for the quarter in total.

Speaker 5

Okay. It's helpful. And then last question, I guess, kind of related to the investment portfolio. Do you have a sense of about how much of your portfolio might mature and roll over the course of, say, the next 12 months or the balance of 2022. I'm really just trying to get a sense of Kind of what portion of the fixed income portfolio will have the opportunity to renew at the relatively higher new money rates that we're all seeing right now?

Speaker 7

Yes, Mark, I do actually have that information. So this is looking, the balance of 2022, about 4.4 percent of portfolio, 23%, 6.3%, 24% jumps 8%, and then 25%, 9.3 And book yields on that ranges from 3.7 up to about 4.5 in 2025.

Speaker 5

Okay. That's helpful. Those are all my questions. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Mark.

Operator

Speakers, your next question is from the line of John Hegne of Dowling and Partners. Your line is now open.

Speaker 8

Good morning. I had a question on your multiyear policies in commercial. How does that impact your ability to Re price for the inflation we're seeing over the past 3 to 4 months?

Speaker 6

Yes. John, Steve Spray. Yes, we're committed to that 3 year policy. We think it's important to our agents And our policyholders, it's consistent with our desire to have long term relationships. And so when we can get an adequate rate for the risk, terms and conditions, we are keen to offer a 3 year policy on our commercial packages.

Speaker 6

Just so you know on that too or maybe to give you a little more color, what that does is that really locks in the rate for the property, the general liability, the crime and the inland marine coverages. And I would say this to you too, is that every year, whether it be those policies that are renewing off of a 3 year Or the coverages that are subject to annual adjustment, about 75% of our commercial premiums are subject to an anniversary adjustment even with that 3 year policy. Does that make sense?

Speaker 8

Yes. So essentially, I have a 3 year rate, but I can adjust it for the change in TIV. So that would be an inflation adjustment on an On an annual basis? Yes.

Speaker 6

You could adjust it for inflation on TIV. And right now that's we're running that in the high single digits. And you also say your general liability, which would typically have Your exposure, your premiums are based off of gross sales or payroll. As those increase, The premium goes up, it's just that the rate is locked in.

Speaker 8

Right. Okay. How much of your portfolio overall It's multi year. If I just think of it crudely in terms of net premium written in commercial?

Speaker 6

Yes, it's about 60% of our policy count.

Speaker 5

Okay.

Speaker 8

Then the next question I had on CGU and then with your new delegated authority into Lloyd's, How much business is that MGA putting through to your own syndicate versus Putting through to other syndicates at Lloyd's, I'm just trying to get a sense for how big That delegated authority business could be because obviously you have a limit on your capacity at Lloyd's in your syndicate, but if you're running elsewhere, It would seem that you have a bigger underwriting capability at least for your agent.

Speaker 2

Right. And sure, John. Good question. We're just with our first coverage that we are handling through the delegated authority and it's A deductible buy down and for that particular product and especially given this our first it will be for our syndicate. As we look to future and rolling out additional coverages, we would open it up to partnerships with other syndicates over there.

Speaker 8

Got it. So I'm asking that a little bit too far in advance in terms of where you are. And then finally, just one last kind of numbers question. E and S, how much of Your E and S business is written with a standard insurance contract. So I'm just trying to get a sense Of how much your agents are leveraging that platform for the standard commercial product they're also offering?

Speaker 6

Yes. John, Steve Spray. About 50% of the time when our E and S company Rights coverage, Cincinnati Insurance Company Rights Business on the standard side. So it's a high percentage. It's a high percentage.

Speaker 6

It's key to what we do. It works really well for the agents. It's I could get into a lot of detail Having the same claims rep, having actually having the same resources at Cincinnati Insurance Company For our agents and for those policyholders, whether it's admitted or non admitted is a big, big deal and we're trying to do more and more of it. And you can see with the growth And the profitability in CSU both have been extremely strong. So, we feel really good about where that is going forward.

Speaker 8

And then the rest of the book there, that's not wholesale market stuff, right? That's still giving retail agents Better access to the E and S market. Is my understanding correct there?

Speaker 6

Well, that is correct. That's exactly right. CSU, our E and S carrier and our wholly owned subsidiary brokerage, what we call C Super, Only provides access to retail agents of Cincinnati Insurance Company to our non admitted offering. We do not our in house brokerage does not place business in the broader E and S market. I think that might have been part of your question at the end.

Speaker 6

It's only with our own non admitted carrier and only for licensed and appointed agents of Cincinnati Insurance Company.

Speaker 8

Right, right. Yes, no, I was getting at. So the strategy is really geared towards making life easier for all your agents. It's just an agent centric strategy.

Speaker 6

Absolutely. Everything we do is agency centric.

Speaker 8

That's it for me. Thanks guys and enjoy the weekend.

Speaker 2

Thanks, John. You too.

Operator

Thank you, participants. I'll now turn the call back over to Mr. Stephen Johnston for final remarks.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Jesse, and thanks to all of you for joining us today. We hope to see some of you at our Annual Meeting of Shareholders on Saturday, May 7 at the Cincinnati Art Museum. You're also welcome to listen to our webcast of the meeting available at cinfin.com/investors. We look forward to speaking with you again on our Q2 call. Have a great day.

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Earnings Conference Call
Cincinnati Financial Q1 2022
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