AvalonBay Communities Q2 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
July 27, 2022

There are 15 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to AvalonBay Communities Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. Following remarks by the company, we will conduct a question and answer session. Please leave the handset before asking your question. And we ask that you refrain from typing and have your cell phones turned off during the question and answer session.

Operator

Your host for today's conference call is Mr. Jason Riley, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Riley, you may begin your conference.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Kyle, and welcome to AvalonBay Communities' 2nd quarter 2022 earnings conference call. Before we begin, please note that forward looking statements may be made during this discussion. There are a variety of risks and uncertainties associated with forward looking statements and actual results may differ materially. There is a discussion of these risks and uncertainties in yesterday afternoon's press release as well as in the company's Form 10 ks and Form 10 Thank you, filed with the SEC. As usual, this press release does include an attachment with definitions and reconciliations of non GAAP financial measures and other terms, which may be used in today's discussion.

Speaker 1

The attachment is also available on our website at www.avalonbay.com/earnings, And we encourage you to refer to this information during the review of our operating results and financial performance. And with that, I will turn the call over to Ben Shaw, CEO and President of AvalonBay Communities for his remarks.

Speaker 2

Ben? Thank you, Jason, and thanks, everyone, for joining us today. Kevin, Sean and I will share some prepared remarks and Matt is with us as well for Q and A. I'll start by discussing our financial and operating performance as well as our latest approaches to capital allocation. On operations, we had a very strong second quarter with core FFO of $2.43 per share, exceeding our prior guidance by $0.12 per share or more than 5% above expectations.

Speaker 2

This magnitude of outperformance is atypical, particularly since we increased Q2 guidance at the end of April and was driven by continued asking rent growth, above average occupancy and favorable net bad debt. As shown on Slide 4, core FFO increased roughly 23% during the Q2, bringing our year to date core FFO growth up to 19%. And as Kevin will describe more fully, we're raising core FFO guidance for the year to $9.86 per share at the midpoint, an increase of $0.28 per share over our prior guidance. As we will highlight later during our remarks, There are a number of meaningful tailwinds that support our strong earnings guidance for the back half of the year and support continued growth going into next year Or if the macro environment were to erode in a way which impacts our operating fundamentals, that should serve as a ballast. Switching over to capital allocation.

Speaker 2

Our balance sheet is as strong as it has ever been, providing strength in an uncertain macro environment and allowing us to maintain our focus on creating shareholder value over time and across cycles. We've also responded to the changing capital markets in certain ways. We issued a $500,000,000 equity forward in April at $2.50 a share, which we can draw down through the end of 2023 to fund our future growth. As we communicated in Q1, We also shifted from being a net buyer to a net neutral trader of assets in 2022 as we continue to optimize the portfolio and rotate capital our established regions into our expansion markets. We continue to selectively match dispositions with acquisitions at market cap rates, which we've seen widen by approximately 50 basis points in many markets.

Speaker 2

Consistent with prior activity, our dispositions are generally of older assets With higher CapEx profiles in our established regions, which we're utilizing to fund acquisitions of newer assets in our expansion markets. And while we remain active on the development front with $2,100,000,000 under construction and a $4,700,000,000 development rights pipeline, We have reduced our projected 2022 starts based on some project specific delays. For new potential projects, we are focused on maintaining flexibility so that we can ramp up or down our overall 2023 development start volume depending on how macro conditions evolve. Before turning it to Sean, let me quickly provide some additional color on our Q2 revenue growth. Slide 5 provides a breakout of our 12.9% q2 same store revenue growth with the vast majority coming from growth in lease rates as well as the reduced impact of concessions as compared to Q2 last year.

Speaker 2

Net bad debt also improved relative to last year with additional rent relief payments offsetting the change in underlying bad debt. Turning to Slide 6. Net bad debt was a meaningful component of our outperformance relative to Q2 guidance with rent relief payments via the federal government's Emergency rental assistance program continuing into May June as compared to our prior expectations that these government funds would run dry earlier in Q2. And while net bad debt remains elevated, we are pleased to see improving resident payment behavior With underlying bad debt currently in the low 3% of revenue range, down from mid 4% in Q4 2021 compared to 50 basis points to 70 basis points historically. And with that, I'll turn it to Sean to review the operating backdrop in more detail.

Speaker 3

All right. Thanks, Ben. Turning to Slide 7. The strong revenue growth, Ben noted, was supported by very healthy trends in the business throughout the quarter. Turnover remained below historical norms even though it ticked up in absolute terms in June, given normal seasonal patterns average roughly 14%, supported by healthy demand across all of our regions.

Speaker 3

Lastly, we started to see some improvement The lease revenue, excluding rent relief, during the Q2 as residents who were chronically delinquent started moving out from communities, particularly in some of our more challenged markets like LA and New York. While we expect the number of delinquent accounts to continue to decline in the back half of twenty twenty two, The rate of improvement will likely be modest from month to month. Moving to Slide 8, the outlook for the business remains quite positive. Asking rents continued to increase throughout the 2nd quarter and are up more than 9% since the 1st of the year, supporting lots of lease of roughly 15% at quarter end. And with the continued trend of historically low availability and resident incomes growing in the double digit percentage range, We're well positioned to capture higher rent levels as we move further into the second half of twenty twenty two and look ahead to 2023.

Speaker 3

Turning to Slide 9. Our lease up portfolio continues to post very strong results. Leasing velocity exceeded 30 leases per month during the quarter At rents that were on average about $3.50 or 12% above initial projections. As a result, stabilized yields are projected to be in the mid-six percent range on almost $700,000,000 in business, producing significant value creation relative to underlying cap rates. Now I'll turn it to Kevin to address our updated outlook for 2022 and the balance sheet.

Speaker 3

Kevin?

Speaker 4

Thanks, Sean. On Slide 10, we provide our revised financial outlook for 2022. We now expect full year core FFO per share of 9.86 or 19.4% increase over last year's earnings. If achieved, this would represent the company's strongest growth in full year earnings in over 2 decades. This also represents an increase of $0.28 relative to our expectations in April, reflecting continued strong revenue growth across our business.

Speaker 4

Drilling down a bit further, this $0.28 increase represents $0.31 in higher same store residential revenue, partially offset by a $0.03 decrease in other categories as described on Page 5 of our earnings release. This $0.31 increase in same store residential revenue is in turn driven primarily by higher than expected growth in lease rates And by lower than expected bad debt with $0.09 of the increase having already been recognized in the 2nd quarter and the remaining $0.22 divided roughly evenly over 3rd and 4th quarters. As it relates to bad debt and rent relief, we expect underlying bad debt before the impact of rent relief to decline from 3.9% in the first half of the year to about 2.7% in the second half. We also expect We have declined from the $28,000,000 we recognized in the first half of the year to $7,000,000 in the second half, nearly all of which is expected in the 3rd quarter. As a result, we expect net bad debt will increase from 135 basis points in the first half of the year to 215 basis points in the second half for a full year rate of about 180 basis points.

Speaker 4

Keep in mind that net bad debt for 2021 was 210 basis points, So the change in bad debt on a full year basis is projected to contribute roughly 30 basis points to revenue growth in 2022. Thus for overall same store portfolio, at the midpoint of our revised guidance, we now project same residential revenue year over year growth of 11.25 percent same store residential operating expense growth of 5% And same store residential NOI growth of 14.25 percent. Finally, we expect to start about $850,000,000 in new developments in 2022, Down slightly from the $1,150,000,000 expected in our initial outlook as starts for a few planned developments have shifted into early 2023. Turning to slide 11. Nearly 90% of current development underway is already match funded with long term debt and equity capital.

Speaker 4

Blocking the cost of this investment capital helps ensure that these projects will provide earnings and NAV growth when they are completed and stabilized. Turning to slide 12. As we look ahead, our balance sheet remains exceptionally well positioned to provide financial strength and stability while also giving us the flexibility to continue funding attractive growth opportunities across our investment platforms. In this regard, We enjoyed low leverage with net debt to EBITDA of 4.9 times, which is below our target range of 5 times to 6 times. Our interest coverage ratio and unencumbered NOI percentage are at record levels of 7 times 95% respectively And our debt maturities are well laddered with a weighted average years to maturity of about 8.5 years.

Speaker 4

And as shown on slide 13, our liquidity position is excellent with $1,300,000,000 in excess liquidity relative to our remaining unfunded commitments of about $400,000,000 as of quarter end. With that, I'll turn it back to Ben.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Kenna. As we look forward, we wanted to emphasize a number of tailwinds as described on Slide 14 that support continued value creation and our strong earnings outlook. To start and focusing in on development, Slide 15 highlights the historical spread between our development yields and stabilized cap rates, a core measure of how we generate meaningful value for shareholders through our industry leading development platform. With our strong balance sheet and match funding approach, We are able to ratchet down or ratchet up our start activity at particular points in time, but do so in a way that provides consistent incremental value creation and earnings growth. On completion so far this year, projects at yesterday's cost and today's rents, we are realizing an exceptionally strong spread between stabilized yields and current cap rates of over 200 basis points, generating significant value creation and earnings growth.

Speaker 2

For projects in our development rights pipeline, We're seeing this spread range from 100 to 200 basis points based on our most current underwriting, which we believe continues to provide appropriate risk adjusted returns. In the near term, as shown on Slide 16, our developments underway are expected to provide meaningful incremental earnings With roughly $125,000,000 of incremental NOI to come from these projects over the next 2 to 3 years. Moving to Slide 17, and as we previously outlined, we are in the midst of transforming our operating platform With significant investments in innovation and technology that we expect to generate 200 basis points of margin improvement or $40,000,000 to $50,000,000 of NOI. Slide 17 provides incremental disclosure on certain of these initiatives, including the projected progress year by year With $20,000,000 of additional revenue associated with the rollout of bulk Internet, managed WiFi and smart home technology An additional $20,000,000 in expense savings to come from the digitization of a number of customer experiences, including self touring, maintenance, renewals and others. We also introduced our structured investment program last quarter, which is off to a solid start.

Speaker 2

As shown on Slide 18, we closed our first two investments, Providing preferred equity to 3rd party developers on new construction projects. By leveraging our intimate knowledge of development, construction and operations, We believe that we can achieve attractive risk adjusted returns on $300,000,000 to $500,000,000 of capital, a book of business we will build up over time providing incremental earnings growth. Before closing, I also want to highlight, as shown on Slide 19, our continued ESG leadership, given the recent publication of our 11th Annual Corporate Responsibility Report. On the E, we are one of the first REITs to set numeric Science based targets for emission reductions, and we're proud that we've achieved actual reductions through these initiatives, 30% reductions in Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions And 20% reductions in Scope 3 emissions so far. On the S, our investments in our people and culture, including advancing Our inclusion and diversity initiatives remain a priority with progress being made and more to come.

Speaker 2

We also continue to invest in our local communities Through volunteer time and direct donations, a key part of how AvalonBay associates connect around our evergreen culture, including our spirit of caring. In closing on Slide 20 with a summary of our key takeaways, we're very pleased with our operating results today, I have meaningfully lifted our earnings expectations for the year and believe that there are a number of tailwinds specific to AvalonBay that set the table for strong continued growth Looking ahead. And with that, I'll turn it to the operator to facilitate questions.

Operator

Thank you. We take our first question from Nicholas Joseph with Citi. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Thank you. Maybe starting on the transaction market, and I'm looking on Slide Obviously, there's the pretty widespread between the development initial yields and the transaction market looks and I recognize these are annual numbers that Cap rates have come down in 2022. So just curious what you've seen over the last 3 or 6 months in terms of movement in cap rates and asset values across your markets?

Speaker 6

Hey, Nick, it's Matt. Yes, certainly in the last couple of months, there's Shift in the transaction market with the rise in rates. And so, we are pretty active in the market and so we've had some Good. It's changing quickly. So the first thing I'd say is, nobody can be real sure, but the data that we points that we've gotten recently would Suggests, as Ben had mentioned in his prepared remarks, cap rates are probably up, call it, 50 basis points, maybe a little more in some regions, a little less in others, And depending on the asset type, there are definitely deals which are just not transacting, where they may have seen a more significant move, particularly if they were Targeted more to highly levered buyers, but most of the assets that would be in our portfolio are more kind of institutional grade type assets.

Speaker 6

It's probably been more in that range. NOIs continue to grow. So in terms of overall asset values, Maybe down 5% to 10%, because you're getting some lift in the numerator that offsets some of the increase in the denominator.

Speaker 5

Thanks. That's helpful. And then just as you start to execute on some of these structured investment program deals, How the first few deals come about? What sort of competition are you seeing? Just kind of any color on at least the entrance into this market?

Speaker 6

Yes. Hey, Nick, it's Matt. I guess I can speak to that one as well. So the first two deals we have, One is actually in the East Bay, in the San Francisco area and the other one is in Denver. And then we have a couple others working their way through the pipeline actually on the East Coast.

Speaker 6

So we're seeing a nice geographic mix. I mean it's typically local Merchant builder, developer sponsors. And we do think the deal flow, there is a lot of leverage there given our deep presence in our markets. So some of these are sites that we knew from kind of looking at them as land. Certainly, there's good deal flow from the brokerage community and folks we're talking to about asset acquisitions or asset dispositions.

Speaker 6

The other thing we're seeing is pretty strong relationship alignment with First lenders. All these deals have obviously First Construction lenders and they really take Heart in the fact that we're in there with them and such an experienced capital provider Further up in the capital stack than they are given our expertise in development and construction and operations. So we're looking to get repeat business from a pool of lenders. And I think the deal flow is probably increasing as capital gets a little harder to find. So we like our position And going forward, that we should be even more competitive.

Speaker 5

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We take our next question from Austin Wurschmidt with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Speaker 7

Great. Thank you. So I was wondering if you guys could provide where you expect your 2023 earning to shape up at this point. And I'm just curious given that we're starting at presumably a historically high earn and entering the year, you still got We lost the lease in place today. I guess I'm trying to understand if conditions do soften materially from here, I mean, what's the probability that you'd actually see revenue growth Turn negative.

Speaker 7

If again, if things soften materially and I recognize all recessions are different, but Just using kind of historical data, maybe as a little bit of a to give some idea of what that downside risk could be.

Speaker 3

Yes. Austin, this is Sean. I'll take that one. As it relates to the earn in, there is still obviously a lot of leasing to do, a lot of transactions Between now and year end, the guidance I give you is that coming into 2022, The earn in that we had in place at the beginning of the year was about 2.5%. And so you look forward to 2023, given the leases that we've executed thus far this year, What you could sort of expect based on the guidance we provided for the second half of the year is that the earning going into It's one variable in the whole puzzle.

Speaker 3

There are some other factors that could be headwinds and or tailwinds, Including obviously the normalization of bad debt in terms of underlying collection rates should be a bit of a tailwind. Yes, the loss of rent relief from this year will be a bit of a headwind. So you got to kind of keep all those things in mind as it relates to How the embedded growth kind of translates to total revenue growth when we get to next year. And then in terms of your other question about Loss to leases and what might have to happen. Yes, I think you make a fair point that even if the macro environment continues to Sour, there's still a lot of room between where rents are today and where rents would need to go to, particularly given how our leases expire throughout the year To end up in a position where you'd have negative revenue growth, it really would have to be, I think I would probably characterize it as a pretty severe economic shock to Really see that happen that quickly in terms of the whipsaw with a lot of cushion kind of between us and any kind of negative revenue growth.

Speaker 3

So that's how I describe that.

Speaker 7

That's helpful. And then just secondly, you guys had talked about in NAREIT 2023 starts in the $1,300,000,000 to 1 point $8,000,000,000 range, sort of depending on the environment. Obviously, some deals got pushed, into next year. So is that upside to the 1.3, 1.8, so could you provide an update there? And then just also curious how you're About the additional debt capacity that you have today given leverage is below the low end of your range.

Speaker 6

Sure, Austin. I'll speak to this is Matt. I can speak to the development volume and then maybe Kevin wants to talk to the debt part of the question. Yes. I mean, so our development starts this year are going to be less than what we had thought going into the year.

Speaker 6

And that's really just based on some deal So all else equal, that activity would roll into 'twenty three. And So, and obviously our development rights pipeline ticked up this quarter to $4,700,000,000 which is I think as large as it's ever been. So, What I would say is, if the deals continue the economics on those deals continue to look attractive, we certainly could start Anywhere from $1,000,000,000 to $2,000,000,000 next year depending on how those deals come together when we get final costs. And We're really focused on preserving flexibility based on if we do see changes there, but we certainly have that And of course, we have the equity forward, so we have a fair amount of that capital already raised, so to speak. But Kevin, you want to speak to Yes.

Speaker 4

Sure. Yes. Thanks, Matt. Awesome. I mean, I think your point is a good one.

Speaker 4

We I mean, the first point I'd make is we enter the environment we're in, we're Enter net 2023 from a position of terrific strength from a balance sheet point of view. Leverage, as you pointed out, is below our target range of 5 to 6 In a normal market environment, the combination of free cash flow, which is typically around $300,000,000 a year and is around now, And selling assets for retained capital, which is usually between $400,000,000 $700,000,000 And then on normal Levels of EBITDA growth, leveraged EBITDA growth kind of adds another $300,000,000 to $400,000,000 $500,000,000 on top of that. So you end up We have kind of having around $1,000,000,000 in a quarter or more give or take in leverage neutral funding capacity for investment primarily development In a typical year and with the tremendous amount of NOI and EBITDA growth that we're experiencing right now, you can you're correct to point out that we would have even more Capacity beyond that call it $1,000,000,000 of leverage neutral funding capacity in 2023 just by flexing up in terms of debt issuance. Obviously, current rates today don't look attractive to relative to where they were a year or so ago.

Speaker 4

Currently, if we were to do the 10 year debt, it would be in the low 4% range given where the treasuries are right now. That is sort of reasonably attractive if you look back over the last 10 years, but most of But if you look back over the or I should say over the last 20 years, if you look back over the last 10 years, 4.25 percent Unsecured debt costs for us would be relatively high, but it is reasonably attractive compared to development and development uses. So I think as we look into 2023 and put together a capital plan, we've got lots of choices between free cash flow, ability to sell assets, The equity for that Matt just pointed out and our ability to leverage off, but I think how much debt we take on will at that time be a little bit of a function of how attractive debt costs are Relative to both development yields as well as what our sense is to the cost and other choices in terms of the other capital markets.

Speaker 2

Austin, this is Ben. I'll add a couple of comments, speak both to your question, Sean, on operating fundamentals and then also how we're Looking forward next year in terms of development starts. And what I emphasize around our strength is also our portfolio positioning and particularly our orientation to the suburbs, right, with 2 thirds of our portfolio in the suburban markets, We believe that's going to provide a level of durability that may not be seen in other markets. Demand drivers, our expectation is going to continue to be Relatively strong there. And then supply, relative to national averages is definitely low.

Speaker 2

It's projected to be the range of 1.5 percent of stock. So on the operating side, we think that provides us with some additional resiliency and durability going into next year. And then from a development perspective, As you've seen from us over the really over the last couple of years, the bulk of our new development activity will continue to be in the suburban markets.

Speaker 7

That's very helpful. Thanks for the time everyone.

Operator

Thank you. We move to the next question from Steve Sakwa with Evercore ISI. Your line is open.

Speaker 8

Great. Thanks. Good afternoon. Sean, I was wondering if you could just provide a little color on where you're sending out renewal notices for, I guess what you got in July and maybe August, September and kind of what your thoughts are for the balance of the year?

Speaker 3

Sure, Steve. Happy to address that. I mean, July, we were basically in the low double digit range in And that remains relatively constant as we look forward over the next 60 to 90 days kind of in that low double digit range. And keep in mind that as it relates to renewals, we are slightly more constrained than normal Given some of the COVID overlay regulations that remain in place in markets like California as an example. So there's more to come on renewals, but it's probably going to be in the next year before we're able to get all of it is the way I'd probably describe that to you, Steve.

Speaker 8

Okay. And maybe just circling back to, I guess, the Page 15, you've gotten Questions on the development. I'm just curious as you sort of look at the major input costs, whether it's lumber in certain areas Steel Concrete, I'm just what are you seeing on the inflation front there? And I realize that you guys, I guess the current developments are the beneficiaries of higher rents with costs from a year or 2 ago, but the environment today to start in 2023 is a little different. How much have yields come in on kind of the future pipeline?

Speaker 8

And I guess how are you thinking about costs moving into next year?

Speaker 6

Sure, Steve. This is Matt. As it relates to cost inflation, it's still out there. It's still significant. It feels like we're at the top and then it may be starting to downshift.

Speaker 6

For sure, obviously lumber prices are down. Sales starts seem like they're coming off pretty quickly now. So, I guess I'd say I'm guardedly optimistic that Buyout will start to become a little more favorable. I don't think that means hard costs are necessarily going to drop, but the days of 1% per month increases maybe Behind us, maybe not in all markets, but definitely in some markets. As it relates to how that affects the economics Our development book, our development rights pipeline today on today's rents and today's hard cost is running into kind of a Typical mid-5s yield.

Speaker 6

And if you look at the developments that we're starting this year, that's probably around where they are as well, the 3 or 4 we've started so 2 or 3 we expect to start in the second half here. Compared to 2 years ago, that was probably high 5. So it is probably down 30 basis points, forty basis points, but that still provides a pretty strong spread. And I do think that those cap rates are probably of where they are today. Frankly, the development that we completed late last year, the cap rates were probably sub-four, but we're always a little And how we quote these things.

Speaker 6

So I'd say forecast probably a good representation for our best guess as to where Those deals would trade today if they were stabilized in the market.

Speaker 2

And Steve from a sensitivity standpoint, we emphasized this last quarter, but to reiterate it again, as you think about hard cost increases, rent increases and NOI increases, roughly, If you're keeping pace with 10% construction cost increases and hard costs being 60% of our overall project costs, you need approximately 6% NOI uplift. So if you get both of those in those levels, you're able to maintain yields at that 5.5% type of range that Matt referenced.

Speaker 8

Great. Thanks. That's it for me.

Operator

Thank you. We take our next question from Chaddani Lutra with Goldman Sachs.

Speaker 9

Hi. Thank you for taking my question. Could you guys talk about what you're seeing in your sort of more tech oriented markets, if there have been any Signs of the broader malaise that we are seeing everywhere reflect in the business, any early reads around that? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yes. Sean, this is Sean. At this point, the answer is no. We're kind of reading in the media the same things you are in terms of Particularly some of the startups trying to lean things out, some of the larger companies slowing the pace of hiring. But based on the demand that we're experiencing Coming in, the front door, it is not impacting the renter population in terms of their desire for types of apartments that we offer.

Speaker 9

Understood. And my follow-up question, in the event of a recession, How would you view the relative positioning of development versus acquisitions, if we go into a tougher economic backdrop?

Speaker 2

Chondee, I'll start. This is Ben. Our acquisition activity At least to date, and this is the expectation going forward. It could adjust if the market got further dislocated. But it's an approach really based on trading of assets, right, and the movement from selling of assets in Our established regions and then reallocating that capital into our established regions.

Speaker 2

And it ties very much into the portfolio optimization initiatives that we've been focused on, As well as our diversification initiatives. So that's the primary element. On the development side, we as we think about Capital allocation there, at a high level, it's really a triangulation where we're thinking about what's the opportunity set, Right. Matt talked about sort of the spreads that we need to maintain. So how do we think about a sufficient spread that is there and Probably at the bottom end, in that 100 basis points to 150 basis point type of range to appropriately Provide the return on that risk.

Speaker 2

And then we're thinking about the what's the other component of it is how do you think about the relative attractiveness Of that development and the other relative sources there. So we're triangulating those two dynamics along with our source of capital. And that will really continue to That's been our approach and that will continue to be our approach as we think about our capital allocation choices going forward.

Speaker 9

Are there any lessons to take from the last financial crisis as we think about the relative positioning of those two areas of capital allocation?

Speaker 4

In terms of acquisitions versus development?

Speaker 9

Yes.

Speaker 4

Well, I mean, I think probably the lessons we probably have taken is, 1st of all, always have a prepared balance sheet so you're positioned to be able to respond To the opportunities that emerge in the market. So in a normal operating environment, we typically enjoy developing and that's our highest and best Source of shareholder value creation, but obviously in a dislocated market environment, you can see acquisition opportunities emerge. In certain circumstances, as you saw us engage in, in 2020, there are opportunities that are pretty attractive from a standpoint of buying back our stock. So That's part of the reason why you'll see Johnny is we're operating at below our target level of leverage And with quite a bit of excess liquidity available to us, because when there's more of a greater dispersion in Macroeconomic environment that can unfold in front of you, you want to be prepared to be able to respond positively to the large majority of them. And so we're in a position To hunker down if we need to, but more likely we're in a position to really act and use our capital strength in order to invest in whatever the That may emerge over the next year or so.

Speaker 3

Shandy, one thing just to add to that to keep in mind on the development book, This is not just a reflection of our experience following the GFC, but prior downturns. As it relates to development, Those typically are some very good times for us as it relates to new land deals, either renegotiating deals that we have, Sourcing new land and importantly, if there is a reset in construction costs, as Matt pointed out, That is a very good time to buy out jobs. You only buy it out once, you only build it once, you release it every year. So That tends to be a very good time for us to source opportunities and get them started. And then when they mature and deliver, They tend to be very, very nice yields on that book of business.

Speaker 3

So that is one thing that is relevant to the development side of the equation.

Speaker 9

Thank you for the insight.

Operator

Thank you. We take our next question from Brad Hafford with RBC Capital Markets.

Speaker 7

Hey, everyone. On the delayed starts, is there anything in common with those? Is there something that's specific to each of them individually? And I guess what's the likelihood that we'll see further delays next quarter from projects

Speaker 6

Yes. Hey, Brad, it's Matt. No, I wouldn't say I mean, the thing that's In common is just what we're seeing across our everywhere really, which is just jurisdictions backed up, Honestly, even the design professionals backed up a little bit in terms of getting final permit drawings in and so on. Yes, I think that's a general trend we're seeing across the space. And it's probably is likely to continue.

Speaker 6

I think We have started to factor that in as we think about kind of start activity and as we think about predevelopment schedules, the things are taking a little longer to get through. So, now the deals that are teed up for the second half of the year starts, Those are all tracking solidly and I don't see anything at this point that would create any further delays in those.

Speaker 3

Okay. That's all I had. Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. We take our next question from Allen Peterson with GreenTree.

Speaker 10

Hey, everyone. Thanks for the time. Sean, can you remind us the magnitude of the year over year reduction And on-site headcount that's helping keep overall payroll costs only growing at 1% year to date. Are you guys anticipating any additional reductions over the next year?

Speaker 3

Yes. Alan, Sean, so the numbers they quoted is on and we parsed it between office and maintenance. But On the office side of the house, in the second quarter, the headcount was down about 6%. On the maintenance side, it's about 4%. And then, yes, as you look forward, Ben touched on it in his prepared remarks in terms of the benefit that we expect From the various initiatives that we have ongoing and the digital initiatives in particular, that bucket of activity that he referenced Will result in additional efficiencies at the site level, both on the office and the maintenance side over the next couple of years.

Speaker 10

Perfect. Appreciate that. And just one more on development philosophy question. Ben, you touched on the low end of the range For development economics to continue to pencil being roughly 100 basis points to 150 basis points, is there ever a scenario where that Spread is tighter than 100 basis points where you would still start a new construction project?

Speaker 2

It is possible. Yes, I mean, that's a general range. So it is very dependent on our view on specific markets. It would become our approach would come from a position of are we creating the appropriate long term value creation relative to the risk, Right. So when you start to get down around that range, you're going to be asking yourself those tougher questions and make sure that you have a higher level of conviction Around the value proposition.

Speaker 2

Got you. Appreciate it, guys.

Operator

We take our next question from Adam Kramer with Morgan Stanley.

Speaker 11

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the question. I just kind of want to ask maybe a bit of a bigger picture question about kind of rent growth. If you think historically right, kind of pre COVID and long term, I think kind of 3% and correct me if I'm wrong, but I think kind of 3% rent growth typically Per year is kind of a decent proxy to use. And obviously, we're in this high inflationary environment and even if the year over year numbers, which Should cool off here.

Speaker 11

We're still kind of going to be on an elevated level on inflation basis kind of relative to historical. So kind of wondering what you guys think will kind of be a good Your kind of rent growth proxy to use, is this 3% still the right number? Should that be higher? And then kind of where do you think that might land when we kind of think about longer term rent growth?

Speaker 3

Yes. Adam, this is Sean. I'm happy to start and anybody else can chime in. But I think the number that It is really a function of just underlying inflation in the economy. Over a long period of time though, if you look at it, Rents, in our markets with our customer segments have grown faster than inflation.

Speaker 3

I think the number I recommend or recall is around 70 to 100 basis points or so, plus or minus above kind of headline inflation. Again over a long 40 years kind of timeframe, There are times where those spreads compress and there are times when they widen. So I think it really is a function of how you want to think about underlying inflation rate and therefore what you might expect in terms of rental rate growth on a nominal basis Across our markets, again, serving our segments. So that's I think how you need to think about it as opposed to in absolute number terms.

Speaker 11

That's really helpful. Appreciate the color there. Maybe just a quick follow-up on Just kind of a guide and what it assumes for maybe second half blended lease growth or second half new lease rate growth? Then also kind of where you think and I know it's a little bit tough to predict that far out, but where you kind of think new lease rate growth or blended growth May kind of end the year at, right? So you kind of have the number that the second half is based on, but maybe a lower Different number where we may end the year.

Speaker 11

Just kind of thinking about kind of growth next year, right? And kind of back to those earlier earning questions.

Speaker 3

Yes, Adam, good question. Essentially, what's built into our reforecast for the second half of the year Is some deceleration in like term effective rent change, primarily as a result of the comps from the second half of twenty twenty one. I think as I referenced earlier, the if you look at what happened in 2021, we still had negative rent change through the Q2, And then it quickly flipped to almost up 8% in the 3rd quarter, so the comps get tougher. As you look into the second half, though, our Our expectation is that you'll see a deceleration on average of roughly 150 basis points from the 1st half effective rent change to the second half, that's sort of at a high level how I think about Where it's going to trend as we move through the balance of the second half of the year.

Speaker 11

Thanks so much for the time guys.

Speaker 12

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Rich Anderson with SMBC.

Speaker 13

Thanks. Just following up on that last question. What about the like term sort of cadence for the second half is optics, Meaning, this year you have this tough comp scenario that we don't normally have. In absolute dollars, are rents In November meaningfully lower than rents are today or is just are they is the pace of Market rent growth just decelerating, but your actual rents are still above where they are today in your forecast?

Speaker 3

Yes, Rich, good question. So today, I've mentioned we've seen a nice run up in asking rents, more than 9% since the beginning of the year. So the question you're really asking is maybe around seasonality in terms of what's likely to happen. We do expect Some seasonality in the back half of the year. We haven't seen it yet.

Speaker 3

But in terms of the second half re Forecast, what we have assumed is that the normal seasonal decline that we would see in the absolute level of rents Would be about half in 2022 as compared to sort of pre COVID periods. So if you remember last year, We didn't really see that. Rents rose and then they sort of just flat lined through the last 4 or 5 months of the year. For this year, We've assumed that they actually will decline just at a more modest pace than pre COVID periods would typically dictate. That's an assumption.

Speaker 3

We'll see if that's the case, but that's the assumption we have made so far for this year.

Speaker 13

Okay. And second question, back to the tech Kind of headlines, what's better for you in terms of the multifamily business, Tech hiring and during the pandemic with no commitment to being anywhere near the office. So that's, I guess, a nice feeling, but I don't know how it affects multifamily since they can live in Nebraska if they wanted to Or tech layoffs or at least hiring slowdowns, but now giving some leverage to employers To say, okay, well, if you want to essentially keep your job, you got to come back to the office at least some portion of the week. Is the latter a better scenario for you or is just the pure hiring accelerating hiring a better scenario for the market overall?

Speaker 3

Yes, that's a multi variable question, Rich. And given we don't typically go through a pandemic, That's I'm not sure I can give you 100% certainty on that. Certainly, we have been through tech layoff cycles Yes, following the TechRack and such in the past, which were painful as you know. In terms of Sean,

Speaker 13

I guess the question is, Layoffs sort of moves employer negotiating leverage back to the employer and so more people in the office and then more people having to be near the office and more people using multifamily is the essence of the question?

Speaker 3

Yes. No, I agree with you on that. So I think, this what I was going to add to is obviously even if there is just say the employment base declines by some modest amount, Whatever the number is, to the extent all of that employment is still concentrated within our markets, whether there are urban Submarkets or our suburban job centered markets, that is highly relevant to the demand for our portfolio. And just to give you An example, we have seen some meaningful reversion to any out migration. And if you look at our move ins even in The Q2 for the same store bucket, historically in the Q2, move ins from greater than 150 miles away is around 10% to 11% of the move in activity.

Speaker 3

It was almost 30% in the 2nd quarter. So it's up 2 50% from normal levels. And certainly, job center suburban, which is very favorable for us, and urban, which is less favorable as it's only onethree of the portfolio, but it's still relevant. We're seeing that trend come back as opposed to during the pandemic where it was there's a lot of out migration to various other markets. So that's a trend that has been in place for a couple of quarters and certainly accelerated very meaningfully in the And hopefully, that trend will continue in the Q3 as employers do start pulling more people back into the office In those markets to benefit us.

Speaker 13

Yes. Okay. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. We take our next question from Joshua Dennerlein with Bank of America.

Speaker 2

Hey, guys. Hope everyone is well. I saw on Slide 8, you had details about the level of Your lost lease and how it

Speaker 14

was growing from April, May and then into June.

Speaker 2

Curious, is that the normal dynamic that you see At that time of year and just kind

Speaker 14

of thinking about just trying to think about like How extraordinary that 15% is these days?

Speaker 3

Yes, Josh, this is Sean. In absolute terms, 15% is, to use your word extraordinary, way above average. To the first question around does it normally Trend up during the Q2, the answer is yes, just not normally at that kind of pace. So So even

Speaker 14

the pace of the growth Is a lot higher than you would normally see as like a normal seasonality?

Speaker 3

That is correct. And what I'd point you to is I mentioned rents being up more than 9% since The beginning of the year, normally that slope when you look at it from January to call it mid July type range Is weaker than that in an average year. It still trends up, just you wouldn't see that same change.

Speaker 2

Okay. Sorry, just one follow-up. Is that just because is the growth in the lost lease really a function of just how Fast trends have moved or is it also because there was like restrictions earlier in

Speaker 14

the year on being able to push some rate?

Speaker 3

It's really the combination of the 2. So we're able to push rents hard and on renewals we can't capture all of it. So for people that are, say, capped at a 10% rent increase and rents are up more than that, that spread will accrue to loss of lease, of course.

Speaker 2

All right. Appreciate that. Thank you.

Operator

Sure. Your next question comes from Connor Mitchell with Piper Sandler.

Speaker 12

Hi, thanks for taking my question. I have two questions. Merchant developers and has this given you guys some additional opportunity for acquisitions?

Speaker 6

Yes. Hey, Connor, it's Matt. I would say typically the merchant builders, the buyer of those assets since they're brand new Class A assets is usually not a highly levered buyer. So there's probably been less of a pullback there than there has been in the value add space, but there has been some pullback there. And particularly there's some folks that want to sell early before maybe the lease up is fully complete.

Speaker 6

So I think it does create an opportunity for us. And we do feel like that we are better positioned as a buyer going forward with less competition and where For a seller, it's less about getting the absolute highest price as it is about certainty of execution in this environment, and that's something we offer. So I do think that it's going to lead to a more favorable buying opportunities for us.

Speaker 12

Okay, great. And then My second question is, you guys have talked about capital allocation of acquisitions and development a couple of times. I was also just wondering how you guys think about your structured investment program and if you might ramp that up, if you're hesitant on developments or If you wanted to speed up developments once again, if you would kind of carry the same level of the investments within the structured development program?

Speaker 2

Conor, this is Ben. To a certain degree, we think about that as a separate business. It's $300,000,000 to $500,000,000 of finite capital, And we'll build that book of business up over the next couple of years. We may pull a little bit harder or a little bit less based on the environment, I would expect a pretty consistent approach there to the fill out of that business.

Speaker 12

Okay. That's helpful. That's all for me. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. It appears there are no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call back to Mr. Ben Shaw for any additional or closing comments.

Speaker 2

Thank you, and thank you again for joining us today. We appreciate your

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Earnings Conference Call
AvalonBay Communities Q2 2022
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