American International Group Q2 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
August 8, 2022

There are 9 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good day, and welcome to AIG's Second Quarter 2022 Financial Results Conference Call. This conference is being recorded. Now at this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Quentin McMillan. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thanks very much and good morning. Today's remarks may include forward looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. These statements are not guarantees of future performance or events and are based on management's current expectations. AIG's filings with the SEC, including our annual report on Form 10 ks and quarterly reports on Form 10 Q, provide details on important factors that A reconciliation of such measures to the most comparable GAAP figures is included in our earnings release, financial supplement and earnings presentation, all of which are available on our website at www.aig.com. With that, I'd now like to turn the call over to our Chairman and CEO, Peter Zaffino.

Speaker 2

Good morning, and thank you for joining us to review our 2nd quarter results. AIG had an excellent quarter with strong momentum continuing across All of our strategic, financial and operational objectives. I could not be more pleased with the exceptional results in General Insurance And Life Retirement again delivered good results despite very challenging equity market conditions, significant volatility and other headwinds. As you saw in our press release, adjusted after tax net income per diluted common share was 1.19 General Insurance achieved a calendar year combined ratio of 87.4%, the first sub-ninety quarter and best result this business has achieved In over 15 years, the accident year combined ratio excluding cats was 88.5%, A 260 basis point improvement year over year and the 16th consecutive quarter of improvement. And the accident year combined ratio excluding cats in global commercial was 85.3%, An improvement of 400 basis points year over year.

Speaker 2

Consistent with our strategy to manage volatility, Catastrophe losses were very modest in the quarter coming in at $121,000,000 or 1.8 percent of the combined ratio. Life and Retirement has strong fixed annuity sales with over $1,300,000,000 in deposits for the 2nd straight quarter, which benefited from the origination capabilities of Blackstone. AIG returned nearly $2,000,000,000 to shareholders in the 2nd quarter Through $1,700,000,000 of common stock repurchases and $256,000,000 of dividends. In addition, We are on track to buy back at least $1,000,000,000 of common stock in the Q3. We ended the 2nd quarter with $5,600,000,000 of parent liquidity, which Shane will go through in more detail in his remarks.

Speaker 2

On today's call, I will provide more detail on 5 topics. First, I will provide an update on the IPO of our Life and Retirement business, which will be known as Corbridge Financial once the company is public and discuss why we chose not to proceed with the IPO in the Q2. I will also review the significant progress we continue to make on various aspects of the separation of Corbridge as we prepare This business to be a standalone public company. 2nd, as a follow on to the IPO discussion, I will review Life and Retirement's results where, As I mentioned, the core business showed continued resilience and solid performance despite headwinds largely driven from a reduction in net investment income. 3rd, I will review the performance of General Insurance where underwriting excellence continues to produce outstanding results with strong profitability And top line growth, particularly in our global commercial portfolio.

Speaker 2

4th, I will provide an update on AIG200, Where we achieved critical milestones and delivered on our stated goal of $1,000,000,000 in exit run rate savings 6 months ahead of schedule. Lastly, I'll provide an update on capital management, particularly with respect to stock buybacks and debt reduction. Following my remarks, Shane will provide more detail on the quarter, and then we will take questions. Mark Lyons, David McElroy and Kevin Hogan As you can see, our team has accomplished a lot on many fronts. Before expanding on our financial and operating performance, I want to address the status of the Corbridge IPO.

Speaker 2

Our base case had always been to complete the IPO in the Q2, subject to regulatory approvals and market conditions. In deciding whether to launch the initial public offering in May or June, we weighed several variables, which were all market related, Some specific to Corbridge and some more macro level. These included equity market conditions And particularly the trading values of companies in the life retirement sector that we consider to be the most comparable to Corbridge. In the Q2, equity markets were down 16% with only 3 weeks seeing positive market returns. The VIX, which was above 30 resulting in extremely elevated market volatility and feedback we received from advisors, Analysts and many potential institutional investors filing the public filing of the S-one.

Speaker 2

While completing the IPO is a Significant priority for us and something we are laser focused on, we believe this is an attractive business and did not want to execute a transaction That would be detrimental to stakeholders in the long run. Absent something we don't see today, we remain ready to execute on the IPO subject to regulatory approvals and market conditions, and the next window will be in September. In the meantime, throughout the summer, We continue to make significant progress to position the business for long term success. I'll highlight 3 areas of focus. 1, Expanding on our plan to achieve expense savings at Corporate.

Speaker 2

Last quarter, we estimated these savings to be in the range of $200,000,000 to $300,000,000 But we now expect to generate closer to $400,000,000 of savings over the next 3 years with the majority of the run rate savings to be achieved In the next 24 months. 2, progressing the implementation of a new operating model for our investments unit. This includes our strategic partnership with Blackstone announced in July of 2021 and our partnership with BlackRock Where we began moving assets under management in the Q2 of this year pursuant to the arrangement we announced in late March. And 3, Planning our transition to BlackRock's Aladdin platform, which will replace aging and end of life technology infrastructure and provide enhanced risk analytics and reporting. We continue to expect that Corbridge will pay an annual dividend of $600,000,000 post IPO That will have a payout ratio of 60% to 65% and that it will achieve a return on equity of 12% to 14% over the next 24 months.

Speaker 2

Now turning to Life Retirement's performance in the Q2. As I mentioned earlier, Adjusted pre tax income was $563,000,000 decreasing from the prior year period due to lower NII, Which was driven by lower alternative investment income, accelerated DAC amortization and an increase in SOP reserves. Given the pending IPO, we remain somewhat limited in what we can say about the business, but let me provide some details from the Q2. The core business produced strong sales in fixed annuities, which were up 48% to $1,400,000,000 And strong sales and indexed annuities, which were flat at $1,500,000,000 In group retirement, contributions grew 1%, Non recurring deposits grew 4% and enrollments were up 11%. 2nd quarter deposits Of $1,800,000,000 were strong, the base net investment spread growing 4 basis points sequentially due to the higher interest rate environment.

Speaker 2

The life retirement balance sheet and capital position remains strong with an RBC ratio of 415% to 425% still above our target ranges. Now let me provide more detail on our 2nd quarter results in General Insurance, Where we continue to drive improved financial performance. Gross premiums written increased 5% on an FX adjusted basis to $9,600,000,000 With global commercial growing 8% and global personal decreasing 3%. Net premiums written increased 5% On an FX adjusted basis to $6,900,000,000 This growth was led by our global commercial business, which grew 8% With global personal decreasing 4%. Global commercial net premiums written increased 10%, excluding AIG Re, Where we have significantly reduced property cat writings and exposure, particularly in the Southeast region of the U.

Speaker 2

S. North America commercial net premiums written increased 10% or 14% excluding AIG Re And international net premiums written increased 5% or 8%, excluding the impact of non renewal and cancellations related to Russia exposure, In each case on an FX adjusted basis. In North America Commercial, we saw very strong growth in net premiums written. In Lexington, which grew 31%, led by wholesale property, which was up 46%, Retail property, which grew 17% and our Canadian commercial business, which grew 10%. In International Commercial, on an FX adjusted basis, we also saw strong growth in net premiums written.

Speaker 2

In Global Specialty, which grew 16%, Led by Energy, which was up 20% and Marine, which was up 10%. North America Specialty, which grew 17% And International Specialty, which grew 15%. In Global Commercial, we also had very strong renewal retention of 85% In our in force portfolio, with North America up 200 basis points to 85% and international holding steady at a very strong 86%. As a reminder, we calculate renewal retention prior to the impact of rate and exposure changes. And across Global Commercial, our new business continues to be very strong, coming in slightly over $1,000,000,000 for the 5th consecutive quarter.

Speaker 2

North America's new business grew to $542,000,000 led by Lexington. International new business was 466,000,000 Slightly down year over year due to intentional actions we took in Talbot and in our specialty business related to Russia Ukraine. Turning to rate. Momentum continued in global commercial with overall rate increases of 7%. And in the aggregate, rate continued to exceed loss cost trends.

Speaker 2

This is the 4th consecutive year in which we're achieving rate above loss cost trends and where we are successfully driving margin expansion. North America commercial achieved 7% rate increases with some areas achieving double digit increases led by Lexington, Which increased 18% with 17% in Lexington Wholesale Property. Financial Lines Where professional increased 34%, led by cyber, which increased 52% and excess casualty, which increased 10%. International commercial rate increases were 7% driven by financial lines, which increased 11%, including more than 47% rate increase Cyber Property, which increased 10% and EMEA, which also increased 10%. Last quarter, we indicated that our loss cost trend view in the aggregate for North America commercial had migrated upwards from 4% to 5%, mostly driven by shorter tail lines and as a result, we moved the upper end of the range to 5.5%.

Speaker 2

In the second quarter, Trends in casualty and other liability lines continue to show no obvious impact in either internal or external data to support a large move on loss cost, Whereas property businesses have been more clearly affected. As a result, based on a review of more recent information, We again modified our view on loss cost trend to 6%. Loss cost trend represents the composite of frequency and severity. However, there is an additional mitigant to inflation built into rate decisions. Exposure trend, which we view as a partial offset to loss cost trend reflects the additional premiums an insurer receives driven by growth in underlying inflation Sensitive exposure basis.

Speaker 2

When taking this exposure mitigant into account, our current North America commercial loss cost trend, Net of these inflationary exposure benefits is approximately 4%. Additionally, our North America commercial accident year loss ratio ex CAT is booked at 63% year to date, which is consistent with pure actuarial rate over loss costs and exposure trends, But as a pure numerical approach and does not reflect our improved risk selection and continued improvement in terms of conditions, Those benefits will emerge over time. As we discussed on prior calls, since 2018, We have implemented a clear ventilation strategy in our casualty, financial lines and property portfolios that directs our capacity deployment Towards higher average attachment points, which is a strong defensive measure towards rising inflation and this strategy continues today. We also implemented the strategy in our AIG risk management loss sensitive workers' compensation business. And Over the last few years, average deductibles have increased 30% to 1,300,000 Turning to personal lines.

Speaker 2

In North America personal, net premiums written declined nearly 4%, driven by a reduction in warranty, which was partially offset by a rebound in travel. In International Personal, net premiums written declined 4% on an FX adjusted basis, Also due to a reduction in warranty and partially offset by growth in accident health and travel. Now I'd like to spend a few minutes on our high net worth business. This is a business we will continue to invest in where there are attractive opportunities for profitability improvement. Over the last 2 years and through the Q2, we've already invested $140,000,000 to improve digital workflow, data, A customer interface that will provide enhanced insight and value to distribution partners and policyholders.

Speaker 2

The actions we are taking Our design to position this business to be more balanced with less density and lower volatility in order to provide more sustainable Financial results. Let me review some of the market dynamics impacting this business that have created significant complexity and the resulting actions we are taking to reposition the portfolio. Currently, the level of reinsurance we purchase And the commensurate model ceded profit is a headwind to net premiums written growth and combined ratio improvement. This has been intentional as we are not willing to take volatility on frequency or tail risk on cat in our high net worth business. Adding to this, the inability to pass on increased loss and reinsurance costs through rate increases or limit management, Largely due to regulatory constraints, further deteriorates margin in the short run, but we have made a deliberate decision To continue riding this business as we believe the trade off is appropriate in the near term given the opportunity we see over the long term.

Speaker 2

And while each of our cat exposed businesses has different attributes, I don't see reinsurance costs for the high net worth market Generally becoming less expensive for the foreseeable future, but instead seeing it putting pressure on the segment. In fact, for a business that is primarily underwritten in peak zones with high total insured values, reinsurance costs will likely increase And in some cases, materially. To understand the complexity of reinsurance for peak zones, you need to look no further than what has Approximately $60,000,000,000 of available limit across various structures, of which roughly $20,000,000,000 is indemnity based for reinsurers With this capacity primarily supported by alternative capital. The dynamics in the retrocessional market over the last few years are important to understand Because they have materially changed even though overall retrocessional capacity has remained flat since 2017. First, The cost of retrocession has increased significantly more than in the reinsurance industry on a risk adjusted basis.

Speaker 2

2nd, Available capacity has shifted from predominantly aggregate to predominantly occurrence. 3rd, 1st event aggregate and lower attaching occurrence retrocession have been put under significant stress. 4th, the retrocessional market return period attachment points have increased 50%. And 5th, Compounded risk adjusted rate changes have also increased by over 50%, even though retrocessional exposure is reduced compared to prior year. When you couple these factors with the additional adjustments going forward for inflation, model changes, trapped capital, You have a very complicated and challenging market.

Speaker 2

Additionally, if you review global insured net Cat retrocessional losses over the last decade, 9 out of 10 years have had larger contributions from secondary peril aggregate losses Then peak peril losses, which highlights the complexity of modeling catastrophes. As a result of these dynamics In challenging circumstances, we concluded that to continue to provide high net worth clients with comprehensive solutions that meet their emerging risk issues, We needed to move property homeowners product to the non admitted market, particularly in cat exposed states. In the second quarter, We exited the admitted personal property homeowners market in certain states as we could no longer maintain our level of aggregation, Especially given the inability to reflect the loss cost increases, inflation and increased reinsurance costs and rates, as well as limitations on our ability to make coverage changes in this market. As part of our go forward high net worth strategy, We're going to move homeowners and possibly other products in more states to the non emitting market. And we plan to set up a structure That over time, we expect to be supported by 3rd party capital providers in addition to AIG.

Speaker 2

This structure will provide more flexibility to manage Aggregation, price, limit, terms and conditions and to innovate to solve evolving client needs. We will continue to provide coverage to our clients in the U. S. Utilizing a hybrid model of non admitted and admitted products in some states And admitted only products in other states. We're already seeing the benefits of this strategy in our portfolio as the

Speaker 3

reduction in key catastrophe perils is apparent in these early stages.

Speaker 2

For example, Perils is apparent in these early stages. For example, since year end 2021, Gross wildfire PMLs are down approximately 35% to 40% across the entire PML return period curve. Now I want to review Russia Ukraine. Last quarter, I addressed the many complexities and uncertainties that this situation presents, Particularly those related to aviation policies issued to airline operators and leasing companies, including questions surrounding the occurrence of actual losses, Loss mitigation efforts, whether any losses arise from war versus non war perils and the potential applicability of sanctions. These complexities and uncertainties very much continue.

Speaker 2

The claims we have received continue to be largely reported under political violence or political risk policies, And we continue to reserve our best estimate of ultimate losses, heavily comprised of IBNR, despite the fact But the information we have received in connection with these claims remains very limited. Moreover, in Turning to AIG200. We started this 3 year journey in 2019. AIG200 was designed to Form our core foundational capabilities across the company and our financial objective was to deliver $1,000,000,000 of exit run rate savings With a cost to achieve of $1,300,000,000 At the end of the second quarter, we achieved these goals 6 months earlier than expected. Delivering on these critical operational and financial objectives is a major accomplishment for our team.

Speaker 2

AIG200 Was successful because we maintained a tight governance structure and saw exceptional collaboration from colleagues across all major areas

Speaker 4

of the

Speaker 2

company. While the original objectives of AIG200 have been completed, our team will remain focused on continuous improvement and operational excellence. AIG200 has put the company in a significantly better place. Specifically, we modernized our IT platform, retiring over 50% of our retiring over 50% of our identified applications and moving 80% of our infrastructure to the public cloud. We now have a global standard commercial underwriting platform that streamlines our processes and allows over 3,000 underwriters To make better risk management decisions in real time.

Speaker 2

This platform also includes a new global location management system That allows us to better understand and manage our PML exposure. We made significant investments in key capabilities, Including building a consistent underlying data infrastructure, enhancing our digital capabilities through new distribution partner and client portals Linked to a single common call center platform and fundamentally streamlined our finance reporting capabilities for faster decision making. And we streamlined our global operations and shared services capabilities by moving over 10,000 roles to outsourcing partners. I want to thank all of our colleagues involved in AIG200 for their outstanding performance. They should take great Pride in knowing they established a new infrastructure and foundation for AIG that we will continue to build on and that will drive benefits for our stakeholders now And in the future.

Speaker 2

Turning to our capital management strategy. We will continue to be balanced and disciplined as we maintain appropriate levels of debt, While returning capital to shareholders through stock buybacks and dividends, while also allowing for investment in growth opportunities across our global portfolio. As I said earlier, we had a very successful second quarter where we reduced net debt outstanding by $1,400,000,000 We purchased $1,700,000,000 of common stock, paid $256,000,000 in dividends And ended with $5,600,000,000 in parent liquidity. Looking ahead, with respect to debt repayment, AIG We'll receive the remaining $1,900,000,000 under the promissory note from Life and Retirement prior to the IPO, And we expect to use these proceeds to pay down additional AIG debt and for other purposes. With respect to share buybacks, We have $5,800,000,000 remaining on our current share repurchase authorization and expect to repurchase at least $1,000,000,000 of common stock in the Q3.

Speaker 2

With respect to growth opportunities, our priorities continue to be focused on allocating capital In General Insurance, where we see opportunities for profitable organic growth and further improvement in our risk adjusted returns. As we discussed on our last call, we expect that post deconsolidation of the Life of Retirement business, AIG will achieve A return on common equity at or above 10%. Shane will provide more details on ROE And on Capital Management and his remarks. Shane, I'll turn the call over to you.

Speaker 4

Thank you, Peter, and good morning to all. As Peter noted, I will provide more detail on our Q2 financial results and unpack a number of our key performance metrics, Specifically, EPS, liquidity, leverage, net investment income and ROCE. I will begin by providing more detail on the financial results of General Insurance and Life Retirement in the 2nd quarter. I will then provide more detail on net investment income. I will then review our balance sheet, leverage, AOCI, liquidity and share count, which benefited from excellent execution on a number of capital transactions.

Speaker 4

And finally, I want to provide you more detail on the execution path It's a 10% ROCE for AIG and more detail on what we intend to do to get there, including income drivers, expense reduction And AIG 200, where as Peter noted, we have contracted or executed on our stated goal of $1,000,000,000 of exit run rate savings 6 months ahead of our original timeline. Turning to EPS. Adjusted after tax EPS Was $1.19 per diluted common share. Improvements in general insurance profit of 1.26 $1,000,000,000 contributed $0.06 year over year. Within General Insurance, strong underwriting income $799,000,000 contributed $0.31 of improvement, offset by a $0.25 decline in net investment income, primarily driven by the decline in alternatives.

Speaker 4

A reduction in shares outstanding also contributed $0.10 Life and Retirement declined $0.52 in APTI to $563,000,000 which was below last year's 2nd quarter, Primarily due to $0.36 or $387,000,000 unfavorable from lower net investment income, dollars 0.19 For $202,000,000 from accelerated DAC amortization and an increased SOP three-one reserve. The net investment income decline in life and retirement was due to alternatives being down $0.21 and an $0.11 decline in yield enhancement income. As I noted, General Insurance's adjusted pretax income contribution in the 2nd quarter was $1,260,000,000 Which reflects strong underwriting profit growth and continued improvement in the calendar year combined ratio of 510 basis points to 87.4 percent and the accident year combined ratio ex cat of 260 basis points to 88.5%. General Insurance adjusted pretax income improved by $63,000,000 year over year. Underwriting income improved by $336,000,000 driven by $182,000,000 improvement in accident year underwriting income, In addition to $137,000,000 from improved PYD, offset by reduction in alternative investment income in the quarter.

Speaker 4

The combined ratio improvement was due to improved underwriting income, earned premium growth, expense discipline, Low catastrophe losses and favorable PYD, which all contributed to pretax underwriting income being up 73% year over year, increasing to $799,000,000 from $463,000,000 North America Commercial had another 300 basis points improvement in the accident year combined ratio ex cat Over the prior year quarter, coming in at 88.2%. International Commercial also continued to improve profitability With 550 basis points improvement in the accident year combined ratio ex cat this quarter, coming in at a strong 81.4% for the Q2. North America Personal had a 40 basis points improvement in the accident year combined ratio ex cat Over the prior year quarter, coming in at 99.7%. International Personal experienced a 120 basis points Deterioration in the accident year combined ratio ex cat coming in at 95.2% for the 2nd quarter. In the Q2, cat losses were $121,000,000 or 1.8 loss ratio points Compared to $138,000,000 or 2.1 loss ratio points in the prior year quarter.

Speaker 4

Prior year development, excluding related premium adjustments, was $202,000,000 favorable this quarter Compared to the favorable development of $51,000,000 in the prior year quarter. This quarter, the ADC amortization provided $42,000,000 of favorable development and the balance of $160,000,000 favorable arose mostly from old accident years In workers' compensation, along with primary casualty lines in the U. S. The review in the quarter was mainly focused on North America and represents approximately 15% of reserves. Within both AGRAM loss sensitive work comp And U.

Speaker 4

S. Primary casualty lines, there were additional indications of higher favorable development, but we felt it prudent to wait And see how the inflationary environment evolves, particularly as it relates to the casualty bodily injury and the medical side of workers' comp. We look at this quarterly and as is our standard practice, we will be reviewing approximately 75% of the total pre ADC General Insurance Reserves in the Q3. Life and Retirement adjusted pretax income of $563,000,000 compared to $1,120,000,000 in the Q2 of 2021. The year over year decline was due to $387,000,000 Lower net investment income, of which $224,000,000 is from lower alternative investment income as well as accelerated DAC And increased SOP reserves of $202,000,000 driven by the market declines in the 2nd quarter.

Speaker 4

The DAC and SOP charges had approximately 300 basis points negative impact on ROCE in the quarter, but these are largely non cash. Within individual retirement, fixed annuity sales increased 48% year over year aided by origination activity through the Blackstone relationship And fixed index annuity had another solid quarter of sales. Sales of variable annuities declined in the quarter consistent with market conditions. Net flows were positive $628,000,000 this quarter compared to negative net flows of $77,000,000 in the prior year quarter. And variable and index annuity spreads expanded 2 basis points from the Q1 of 2022.

Speaker 4

Group Retirement had strong deposits in the quarter of $1,800,000,000 while surrenders declined and base net investment spread Was up 4 basis points versus the Q1 of 2022. Life insurance adjusted pretax income was 117,000,000 The 2nd quarter represented the lowest COVID mortality quarter since the pandemic began, while non COVID mortality also ran favorable in the period. Premiums and deposits also continue to benefit from the solid international life sales, which comprise approximately 45% of new sales activity. Our previously reported level of spread rate compression has been in the range of 8 to 16 basis points annually. But given current market conditions, we now expect to be better than 8 basis points for the full year.

Speaker 4

As you are aware, for the Life and Retirement business, We conduct our entire reserve review in the Q3. However, with the recent focus on the guaranteed universal life product, I will provide a few comments. First, this is not a large block for us, so we do not have much exposure in our in force block, which is approximately $3,000,000,000 in net statutory reserves, which represents 2% of our net liabilities. For context, we did participate The recent industry study on this topic and our projected lapse rates, fund basis and dynamic premium modeling approach are consistent with the recommendations of the study. As additional background, over the last 5 years, we have been reviewing and strengthening our reserve assumptions for the our reserve assumptions for the guaranteed universal life product.

Speaker 4

And as a result, we don't expect significant adjustments. Turning to other operations, which includes interest expense, corporate general operating expenses, Institutional Asset Management expense, runoff portfolio and eliminations. It was a positive contributor expenses improved $74,000,000 year over year in the 2nd quarter, benefiting from AIG 200 and continued emphasis on expense management. Adjusted pretax net investment income for the quarter was $2,500,000,000 a decline of Our Private Equity Holdings on a 1 quarter lag, and we may have an impact in the 3rd quarter as well. Over the last few years, we've focused on improving the risk profile of the investment portfolio with continued vigilance around corporate and consumer credit And a strong capital and liquidity profile in both general insurance and life and retirement, which support our ability to manage through difficult times As evidenced by our financial stability through COVID.

Speaker 4

In life and retirement, our weighted average credit rating has improved since the end of 2015, While the percentage of capital intensive assets has declined in the portfolio from 10.5% to 8.3%. In the Q2, we continued the proactive steps in the investment portfolio to avoid potential overexposure in the event credit deteriorates. We sold RMBS and ABS securities with a market value of $3,200,000,000 in the 2nd quarter. In addition, we have alternative investments, particularly hedge funds that have generated good returns over time, but with more quarter to quarter fluctuations, And that is more volatility than we would prefer. Going forward, we would expect to move over time to an asset allocation with less volatility.

Speaker 4

We've also executed on sales of approximately $4,000,000,000 of low yielding longer duration corporate bonds To buy higher yielding, shorter duration structured securities, privates, ABS and CMLs with many of them being floaters. We feel it is appropriate to take advantage of the higher rate environment and turn the portfolio over a little more quickly than would naturally occur At maturity, thereby enhancing our forward APTI and ROCE. The 2nd quarter saw Significant increases in benchmark treasury yields with a 65 basis point increase on the 10 year For 146 basis points through June 30. With general insurance and life and retirement portfolio durations Just under 4 8 years, respectively. The overall rise in interest rate environment will provide a tailwind to our investment portfolio returns.

Speaker 4

Our base fixed income portfolio saw a lift in yield of 18 basis points in the 2nd quarter versus 1st quarter, With $17,000,000 additional within General Insurance and $28,000,000 additional in Life and Retirement. The new money yield on our base portfolio was approximately 80 basis points above the assets rolling off the portfolio during the Q2. At the end of the Q2, the new money yield is roughly 130 basis points higher than the overall current portfolio in general insurance And roughly 75 basis points higher in life and retirement. Moving on to the balance sheet, leverage and liquidity. As Peter noted, we closed the quarter with $5,600,000,000 of parent liquidity.

Speaker 4

The 2nd quarter includes execution Of $1,700,000,000 in share repurchases, dollars 256,000,000 of common and preferred dividends And $1,400,000,000 net spend on debt reduction actions, including AIG debt retirement and extinguishment costs of $7,900,000,000 that is partially offset by the corporate debt issuance of $6,500,000,000 In the Q2, we saw a large AOCI movement as a result of increasing interest rates. Adjusted ALCI, which excludes the cumulative unrealized gains and losses related to Fortitude, moved from negative $5,900,000,000 Negative $15,400,000,000 or an additional reduction of $9,500,000,000 We exited the 2nd quarter with GAAP leverage of 31.1%, up from 27.8%, A 330 basis point increase quarter over quarter. The decrease in AOCI in the period added 3.90 basis This was partially offset by the net debt reduction of $1,300,000,000 in the period In addition to net income gains, the impact of AOCI is substantially larger in life and retirement than general insurance Given the duration of their respective asset portfolios. At quarter end, our debt leverage ratio excluding AOCI Was 25.3 percent, down 60 basis points versus 25.9% at the end of the Q1 of 2022. Total adjusted return on common equity was 7%, down from 10.5% in 2Q 'twenty one And total company adjusted tangible return on common equity was 7.6%.

Speaker 4

The decrease is mostly caused by decline in net investment income. General Insurance's adjusted attributable return on common equity was 12% in the 2nd quarter, While Life and Retirement was 7.6%. Life and Retirement's ROCE was impacted by approximately 300 basis point drag From the acceleration of DAC, an increase in the SOP three-one reserves in the 2nd quarter. Adjusted book value per share of $72.23 increased 2.1% sequentially and 20.2% year over year. Adjusted tangible book value per share of $66.06 increased 2.2% sequentially And 21.8 percent year over year.

Speaker 4

Our primary operating subsidiaries remain profitable and well capitalized With General Insurance's U. S. Pool fleet risk based capital ratio for the 2nd quarter estimated to be between 475% and 4.85% and the life and retirement U. S. Fleet is estimated to be Between 415% and 4.25%, both above our target ranges.

Speaker 4

Finally, during the quarter, we repurchased approximately 30,000,000 shares at an average cost of $58.25 Bringing our GAAP ending share count to 771,000,000 with the quarterly average of 801,000,000 compared to $873,000,000 in the prior year quarter, representing an 8% reduction in average share count. As we previously disclosed, our agreement with Blackstone includes an exchange right put option, which is not exercisable until November of 2024, That gives Blackstone the right to exchange their stake in Corbridge for shares in AIG. Under the applicable accounting principles, this put option was dilutive The Q2 resulted in 43,000,000 additional shares outstanding for the purposes of the adjusted EPS calculations in the period. It's worth noting that this put option goes away upon the execution of the IPO. Looking ahead, we have 4 priorities, which all lead to ROCE improvement towards our 10% or greater goal.

Speaker 4

Continued momentum on underwriting excellence, Expense reduction through operational excellence and expense discipline the successful IPO and separation of the life and retirement business And continued execution on our capital management priorities. Continued momentum on underwriting excellence will include further improvements in Our underwriting profitability will add an increase in volatility as well as underwriting portfolio optimization, which involves both measured growth And proper leverage to optimize return allocation. While we have made significant progress to date, we are still achieving written rate above trend, both in business today and that which we have not yet earned in. Expense reduction will come through continued cost discipline, Operational excellence, earning of AIG200 run rate savings and a reduction of parent GOE. As Peter mentioned, we have now contracted or executed on $1,000,000,000 of savings related to AIG200, And we have realized €610,000,000 of savings today.

Speaker 4

That leaves €390,000,000 of savings that AIG We also expect roughly $300,000,000 of the AIG corporate expenses We'll move to Life and Retirement upon deconsolidation. In addition, as Peter stated, we now expect Life and Retirement to execute A cost savings program, which will generate close to $400,000,000 in savings, I expect the program to deliver the first $100,000,000 before year end. With respect to the execution on our capital management priorities, we have already accelerated our share repurchases this year I expect additional repurchases as we get more clarity on the timing of the proceeds from the Corbridge IPO. Contemplated in our current plan, which includes the completion of the Corbridge IPO, we expect to reduce our share count to somewhere in the range of 600,000,000 to 650,000,000 shares, while maintaining leverage in the 20% to 25% level, Along with strong capitalization at the insurance subsidiary company level. Each of these drivers has some element of tailwind to them.

Speaker 4

Additionally, yield enhancement in the base investment portfolio should provide meaningful lift in earnings power over time based on the current economic backdrop. Today, we're beginning to see the benefit of higher yields driving higher base portfolio returns, but we are not dependent These focus areas give us a line of sight to minimum of 300 to 400 basis points We will continue to provide updates over time. And with that, I will turn the call back over to you, Peter.

Speaker 2

Great. Thank you, Shane. And operator, we're prepared to take questions.

Operator

Thank you, Our first question will come from Meyer Shields at KBW. Meyer, you may unmute.

Speaker 5

Great. Thanks. Good morning. Peter, you provided A ton of information on rates and trend and exposure, but I was hoping we could dig a little deeper specifically into the exposure benefits for liability lines Where premiums are based on receipts, but maybe the relationship between receipts and losses is not as obvious as Let's say in property, and we've got the concerns of longer tailwinds.

Speaker 2

Sure, Meyer. Thank you for the question. Like you said, we Provided a lot of information in our prepared remarks. But I think, Mark, why don't you go through what the effects are on exposure and also talk a little bit about sort of the loss

Speaker 3

So a couple of things to cover to mind. First off, as Peter mentioned, North America commercial aggregate loss trend is now up 6% this quarter as opposed to our upward revision we did last quarter to 5.5% because we look at that every quarter. Short tailed lines are driving much of this increase and that is seen in our own data as well as external information. Over the last few years, because I'm talking about the weighted average loss cost trend there, the North American portfolio has reduced its Property writings and has shrunk as a percentage of total, which helps ameliorate the growth and severity. So but we're seeing commercial property line loss cost Trends of roughly 10% and in specialty oriented property lines closer to 15%, driven by inflationary trends Construction materials, replacement costs, labor, transportation, things of that nature.

Speaker 3

Our view of casualty, bodily injury And the medical side of work comp though is unchanged from last quarter and recall that even that Reflected in an increment of anticipatory medical costs increase. But as Peter said in his prepared remarks, We have yet to see it within our own data or with relevant external data. Now, I think getting into some of your question as well, it's Hard to discuss loss cost trend without discussing the related topic of margin, which reflects the exposure trend And how that mitigates the loss cost trend that we've already just talked about. The aggregate North American commercial book Has an approximate 2% exposure trend, which as you mentioned, represents additional collected Premium due to the positive impact of the underlying inflation sensitive exposure basis to which the rates are applied and therefore does function as A partial inflation mitigant. And examples of that would be one of our growth engines, which is Lexington, Which has approximately 60% of their book based on inflation sensitive exposure basis and another one would be retail property With a focus on accurate and current statement of values is razor sharp in that level of focus.

Speaker 3

So the exposure trend is partially mitigating these loss cost trends, which then produces the approximate 4% all in loss ratio Trend that Peter commented on. But so when you put that in conjunction with the 7% rate increases achieved in the quarter, We're in excess of loss cost trend and loss ratio trend, let alone the loss ratio benefits of tighter terms and conditions. And rate change alone really doesn't tell the whole picture. We've spoken before about the power of the primary, Especially in V and O. AIG's position there permits deploying ventilated capacity as we see fit, But just as important is the stronger pricing power resident in the primary versus high excess, which is fast becoming a good commodity driven by High price or highly by price and seeing the largest rate reductions.

Speaker 3

That's the strength of the primary. But I think lastly, just I think it is a clarification may or may make some sense. So think of it this way. Let's not get confused on the difference between a real underlying Exposure to loss with the measurement of that exposure to loss. So to keep it simple, if storekeeper A buys a GL policy, which is mostly a premises policy and the insurer uses square footage as the exposure base, then the premium paid is rate times square footage, of course.

Speaker 3

And next year, if there is no rate change, he'll have the same premium. However, Storekeeper B has an identical store In the same geographic area and the same sales volume, but their insurance that rates on gross receipts and those receipts are 3% higher this year Last year, the true underlying exposure as measured by the propensity to have a claim didn't change, But the measurement of that exposure did change. So Storekeeper B's premium will be 3% higher than that charge by Insurer A, Even though the stores are identical in every way.

Speaker 2

That's great, Mark. Thank you. Maher, is there a follow-up?

Speaker 5

Yes, just a very brief one really on the last comment. Is there an opportunity or an advantage to maybe shifting even more Of the premium base to inflation sensitive exposures?

Speaker 3

Yes. I mean, it's that is a potential A strategy that you'd a little difficult to implement, right, because you have part of a profitable Portfolio are those things rated on inflation exposure basis like premises. However, when you get into other lines, like the M and C side of GL, Maher, I think what you're saying makes a lot of sense. Yes, I

Speaker 4

think maybe I'll just add to that and we'll take the next question,

Speaker 2

Which is all the significant reposition we've done in the excess and surplus lines, particularly with the Lexington. You hear a lot about it in The prepared remarks because they've done such a great job between growth, rate, retention and pivoting that portfolio To be a significant contributor in terms of profitability improvement, I mean, we've gotten on property alone 16 consecutive quarters of double digit rate increases. And as Mark alluded to, that just starts to drive margin. So we are repositioning the portfolio based on where we see the best risk adjusted returns. Okay.

Speaker 2

We'll take the next question.

Speaker 5

Okay. Thanks.

Operator

Our next Question will come from Eric Bass with Autonomous. Eric, you may unmute your line.

Speaker 6

Good morning. Thank you. So with the Corbridge IPO, it sounds like your strategy is to remain patient and wait for markets to recover since you're not a forced seller. Is this the right take or if the IPO window opens in the fall, would you look to take advantage and get some stock floated even if at a modest discount to what you view as the ultimate fair value?

Speaker 2

Yes. Thanks, Eric. We provided a lot of sort of guidance in our prepared remarks, but let me try to add to it. Your plan has always been to do an IPO of Corbridge and that has not changed. So now we are targeting September.

Speaker 2

I mean, we gave you some of the variables, but There's more to consider like you outlined. We felt that the market conditions in the Q2 were not conducive. We always intend to own greater than 50% following the IPO and therefore we'll continue to consolidate results For the foreseeable future, the base case is still to do secondary offerings, but those will likely take place in 2023. And so, look, we're going to watch the market. We always have to be careful in terms of the conditions that exist and the regulatory Approvals, but our base case has just shifted from May, June to September and we'll watch it carefully And we'd like to get it floating.

Speaker 6

Got it. Thank you. And then one follow-up on Corbridge. I was just hoping you could talk a little bit more about Performance of your VA hedging program this quarter and the movements in the RBC ratio that we saw.

Speaker 2

Yes. Shane, you and Kevin want to provide some insight on that?

Speaker 3

Yes. So

Speaker 7

So Eric, yes, our VA, the hedging program, our economic target based hedging program has continued to perform As we have expected throughout all of the market volatility, it is an economic target based hedging program. And So, the RBC decline was in part due to the variable annuity and index annuity portfolios. And as you know, those Market impacts are reversible as markets recover. So we have hedged all Like risks, we have an open credit spread position, which we believe is offset by our general account credit portfolio and the hedge has performed as we have designed it.

Speaker 5

Got it. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Okay. Thank you, Kevin. Thanks, Eric. I think we have one last question.

Operator

Our next question will come from Brian Meredith with UBS. Brian, you may unmute your line.

Speaker 8

Thanks. Yes, two quick questions here for you. First one, Thanks for all the detail on the expense outlook going forward. I'm just curious, is there another plan And Pete, I'm curious, is there a G and A Expense ratio, did you think you need to be at or targets you're looking at to be among the most competitive from an expense Leverage perspective in the commercial insurance business?

Speaker 2

Yes. Thanks, Brian. Yes, so as we said, we're really proud and pleased that we just Finish AIG 200 and that will start to continue to earn in. The work that we did on in the summer for CoreBridge, we increased our expectations there over the 3 year period to be now at the upper end of the range of 400,000,000 So our primary focus is the underwriting excellence in terms of the improvement, the focus on Continuing AIG 200 and making sure that operational excellence becomes a core part of the organization, which already has, but we want to continue that. And then making sure that the separation of Corbridge is done flawlessly.

Speaker 2

At the same time, we are looking at Our overall cost structure, there's a ton of work underway. And as we start executing on those other pieces, There will be. Shane put it in his prepared remarks where we're going to get out a meaningful amount up to $500,000,000 more of expenses. That's The remaining company within AIG, so that will start to get executed as we start to deconsolidate, we'll have a path forward as we Flow, Corbridge and be able to give you more guidance. I don't have a percentage.

Speaker 2

I focus on the nominal in terms of when I look at even like general insurance over the Five quarters where we've invested a lot in the business. The nominal GOE has not gone up. I mean, so the expense discipline is there. And we want to continue to benefit from the earned savings with AIG 200 And what we will take out in terms of the combined entity when we go forward, but we want to have an organization that is going to be world class in terms of its overall And I think we've proven that we not only can take it out in a really constructive way because we're investing for the future, but we maintain that level Going forward, we have growth opportunities in the top line, which will help the ratios. I mean, the commercial business is growing, Excluding AIG Re, which the reason why I've excluded is that we're not trying to grow that business based on the cat exposures today, but growing at 10%.

Speaker 2

We see opportunities to grow in the future when we look to the back half of this year. We have very strong retention. The new business that's been coming in is going to be More retained is the 5th quarter in a row where we produced more than $1,000,000,000 of new business, all very positive, all helpful to our ratios. And so we feel like we have a lot of momentum.

Speaker 8

Great. That's really helpful. And then one last question on the whole exposure loss trend. Everybody is talking about increasing exposure. What happens if we go into a recession?

Speaker 8

Can that actually hurt your ability to see accrete margin?

Speaker 2

I don't think so based on the makeup of the portfolio. But Mark, why don't we end where we started with you just to give a little bit of perspective and You can turn it back to me.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Peter. And Brian, good to hear from you. So to your question, remember You know what Dave McElroy and his team are doing, Lexington is becoming an increasing proportion of the business. And on a Non admitted basis, you have a lot of interesting terms and conditions like minimum earned premiums. So even if that does fall off a bit, that doesn't necessarily

Speaker 5

Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thanks a lot, Brian. Have a great day. And thanks, everybody, for joining us. Really appreciate the time and have a great day.

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Earnings Conference Call
American International Group Q2 2022
00:00 / 00:00