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PACCAR Q3 2022 Earnings Call Transcript


Listen to Conference Call

Participants

Corporate Executives

  • Ken Hastings
    Director of Investor Relations
  • R. Preston Feight
    Chief Executive Officer
  • Harrie Schippers
    President and Chief Financial Officer
  • Michael Barkley
    Senior Vice President, Controller

Presentation

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to PACCAR's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. And if anyone has an objection, they should disconnect at this time.

I would now like to introduce Mr. Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. Mr. Hastings, please go ahead.

Ken Hastings
Director of Investor Relations at PACCAR

Good morning. We'd like to welcome those listening by phone and those on the webcast. My name is Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. And joining me this morning are Preston Feight, Chief Executive Officer; Harrie Schippers, President and Chief Financial Officer; and Michael Barkley, Senior Vice President and Controller.

[Operator Instruction] Certain information presented today will be forward-looking and involve risks and uncertainties, including general economic and competitive conditions that may affect expected results. For additional information, please see our SEC filings and the Investor Relations page of paccar.com.

I would now like to introduce Preston Feight.

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

Good morning. Harrie Schippers, Michael Barkley and I will update you on our third quarter financial results and other business highlights. I truly appreciate all of PACCAR's outstanding employees, we delivered record third quarter results in the highest quality trucks and transportation solutions to our customers around the world. PACCAR's third quarter net income more than doubled to $769 million, and revenues increased 37% to $7.06 billion. PACCAR Parts pretax profits were a record $374 million, 32% higher than the same period last year. Parts third quarter revenues increased to a record $1.47 billion.

Truck, Parts and Other gross margins expanded to 14.9% in the third quarter compared to 14.4% in the second quarter. Strong business operating conditions and PACCAR's increased mix of premium new truck models and excellent aftermarket parts business contributed to the higher gross margins. PACCAR Financial had a year-over-year pretax income increase of 22% to $146 million, reflecting a high-quality portfolio and robust used truck results. We estimate this year's U.S. and Canadian Class eight market to be in a range of 265,000 to 285,000 trucks and next year to be in the range of 260,000 to 300,000.

Overall, the strong truck market is expected to continue as a result of the solid freight volumes, high customer truck utilization and the increased fleet age. Customers are replacing their trucks with the new Peterbilt and Kenworth models that enhance their operational efficiencies, achieve industry-leading fuel economy and attract and retain the best drivers. Kenworth and Peterbilt now have a backlog that extends into the second quarter of 2023. In Europe, this year's truck industry registrations in the above 16-tonne segment are estimated to be in the range of 275,000 to 295,000 vehicles.

Like in the U.S., freight demand and customer utilization remains high. The 2023 market is expected to be in the range of 260,000 to 300,000 trucks. DAF's year-to-date market share has increased to 17.4% compared to 15.8% a year ago. This growth reflects the exceptional performance of DAF's industry-leading and award-winning new XF and XG trucks that began production at the end of last year. DAF recently introduced a new XD distribution in vocational truck product line.

The new DAF XD models earned the 2023 International Truck of the Year award at this year's truck show in Germany, and the new XD lineup begins production this quarter. The complete new range of DAF trucks offers customers in Europe, the only trucks that utilize the new masses and dimensions regulations and are differentiated from the competition due to their more aerodynamic design, superior safety features and spaciousness for the driver.

These trucks provide our customers the most fuel-efficient, driver-friendly premium trucks in the European market. The South American above 16-tonne market is projected to be in a range of 125,000 to 135,000 trucks this year and in a similar range next year. In Brazil, DAF's above 16-tonne market share through September was a record 6.9% compared to 5.6% last year. The outstanding PACCAR team and dealers around the world are performing well and delivering excellence to our customers.

Thank you. Harrie Schippers will now provide an update on PACCAR Parts, PACCAR Financial Services and other business highlights. Harrie?

Harrie Schippers
President and Chief Financial Officer at PACCAR

Thanks, Preston. PACCAR delivered 44,400 trucks during the third quarter. We estimate fourth quarter deliveries to increase to a range of 46,000 to 50,000 trucks. This reflects higher build rates, more production days in the fourth quarter and a gradually improving supply base performance. Truck, Parts and Other gross margins increased to 14.9% in the third quarter. We anticipate fourth quarter gross margins to be in the 15% to 15.5% range, reflecting higher truck deliveries and continued strong performance of PACCAR Parts. PACCAR Parts had an outstanding third quarter, with Parts gross margins of 30.4%.

Customers high truck utilization and increased average fleet age contributed to PACCAR Parts record results. PACCAR Parts opened a new 260,000 square foot Parts Distribution Center in Louisville, Kentucky in the third quarter to further enhance parts availability for customers and dealers. PACCAR Parts outstanding performance is driven by its network of 18 distribution centers, 2,300 dealer locations, 250 independent TRP stores as well as technologies like Managed Dealer Inventory and innovative e-commerce systems.

We currently expect fourth quarter Parts sales to be 8% to 10% higher than the same period last year. PACCAR Financial Services benefited in the third quarter from higher used truck prices and excellent portfolio quality. Pretax income was $146 million, 22% higher than last year. Demand continues to be strong for PACCAR-preowned vehicles as customers appreciate and pay a premium for the superior reliability and durability. PACCAR Financial has been increasing its network of retail used truck centers and opened a new location in Madrid, Spain in the third quarter.

We now have 13 centers to sell used trucks at retail prices, which enhances profits. PACCAR has invested $7.3 billion in new and expanded facilities, innovative products and new technologies during the past decade. These investments have created the newest and most impressive lineup of trucks in the industry and will contribute to excellent financial returns for many years. PACCAR's return on invested capital further improved to an industry-leading 23% in the first nine months of this year.

Capital expenditures are projected to be $475 million to $500 million in 2022 and $525 million to $575 million next year. Research and development expenses are estimated to be $330 million to $340 million this year and $350 million to $400 million next year. PACCAR's exciting new lineup of trucks and transportation solutions, efficient R&D and capital investments, strong aftermarket parts and financial services business and flexible operating structure position the company for the bright future.

Thank you. We'd be pleased to answer your questions.


Questions and Answers

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question today comes from the line of Chad Dillard with Bernstein. Your line is now open.

Chad Dillard
Analyst at Bernstein

Hi, Good morning, guys.

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

Hi. Hello, Chad.

Chad Dillard
Analyst at Bernstein

So first question is about just your price in the third quarter. Can you just give us a sense for what it looks like on the truck side? And then like how to think about that going into the fourth quarter? Any thoughts on just pricing into '23? And it seems like the exit rate margins are pretty strong. I mean how much more upside do you think you could generate going into '23?

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

Yes, sure. I think that what you saw in the third quarter was really strong performance from all the divisions of PACCAR. There was price realization for us, and costs were up also. But we had a net positive on that, and we would expect that to continue in the fourth quarter. And as we shared with you, we're thinking that Truck, Parts and Other gross margins will increase from -- to the 15% to 15.5% range and a really high level of performance, and we look out into 2023 and think we'll have a really good year in 2023.

Chad Dillard
Analyst at Bernstein

Great. And just one more question for you. I was hoping you could give a little more color on your Europe guide. Just what are you baking in from a macro perspective, from a freight demand perspective, just like what's being discounted there?

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

Yes. Harrie, do you want to go and then I'll follow up with anything?

Harrie Schippers
President and Chief Financial Officer at PACCAR

Yes. We see demand for trucks and transportation to continue to be strong in Europe. One of the statistics that we like to follow is the amount, the toll paid in Germany, which is at similar levels as it was last year. So freight and transportation continues at strong levels. We see it that customers love the new trucks, strong order intake. And first quarter is basically full with orders, and we're now starting to fill up the second quarter in Europe. So the outlook for Europe is really good.

Chad Dillard
Analyst at Bernstein

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Felix Boeschen with Raymond James. Your line is now open.

Felix Boeschen
Analyst at Raymond James

Hi, good morning, everybody.

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

Hi, Felix.

Felix Boeschen
Analyst at Raymond James

I was hoping we could talk about the parts business. It's obviously been super strong, but I was just curious if you could provide some high-level thoughts on how you think the parts business might hold up if we do see a more pronounced slowing of the freight market or the macro in the U.S. and Europe next year. What I'm really trying to understand is we can use the industrial recession as a proxy to see how Parts kind of did in that scenario. Would fleet seem overaged? Do you have more proprietary content on the trucks? So I'm just kind of curious if you could directionally talk about any puts and takes to Parts into next year.

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

One of the things that's wonderful about the team here is that they've done a great job of developing a very robust Parts system that serves the customers well, and I think that's one of the key elements that's driving the performance of the business, is having the right systems and capabilities to provide customers trucks. We've expanded our footprint and distribution centers around the world.

That enables us to be even a better partner with our dealers and our customers, so that helps the performance and insulates us a little bit from cyclicality, gives us a strong recurring revenue business. We've seen the growth of our engine business around the world over the several past years, which also gives us a strong future look into the parts business. And I think that with the elevated fleet age, we're going to continue to see strong Truck performance and Parts performance for the next while.

Felix Boeschen
Analyst at Raymond James

Okay. Super helpful. And if I could just have one quick follow-up. You mentioned the new model mix in Europe. Do you have a percentage of what that was out of European builds in the quarter and where you kind of expect it to go into 4Q?

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

I think we're getting towards 70% now of the new model mix in Europe, and I expect that for the fourth quarter -- in the fourth quarter, and then you'll see that increase next year as well. I can just tell you we're over at the IAA show in September in Hannover in Germany. And the trucks are simply amazing, and the customers are really realizing the benefits of their fuel efficiency and driver performance. And that's driving a very strong demand for those new products.

Felix Boeschen
Analyst at Raymond James

Super helpful. I appreciate it.

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

Good.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Tami Zakaria with JPMorgan. Your line is now open.

Tami Zakaria
Analyst at JPMorgan

Hi. Good morning. Thank you so much for taking my questions. So my first question is...

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

Hi, Tami.

Tami Zakaria
Analyst at JPMorgan

Hi. So my first question is, so you're expecting some growth in North America truck sales next year. Could you help us understand what kind of macro growth assumptions or GDP growth assumptions are embedded in that guide for truck sales?

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

Yes. We don't think of it that way, Tami, we think about the truck industry and what's going on within the truck industry that's driving the volumes. And as you look at it, right, freight demand is at very high levels. Truck utilization is at a high level. And the age of the trucks out in the park has increased for the past three years, and there continues to be supply-based constraints that limit build. When you put all of that together and combine it with the excellent new products that are delivering like 7% to 10% better fuel economy for our customers, which is thousands of dollars per trucks per year in savings, it points to a really good market for PACCAR next year.

Tami Zakaria
Analyst at JPMorgan

Got it. So it seems like you're saying, even if let's say there's a broader macro recession, the factors you mentioned specific to the truck industry makes you comfortable in guiding to a growth number for next year?

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

Well, as we said, we think that it will be a strong truck market next year as we showed with our industry expectations of 260,000 to 300,000 in both Europe and North America. So it's pretty strong markets.

Tami Zakaria
Analyst at JPMorgan

Got it. That's super helpful. And then from a gross margin perspective, with commodity prices coming down and you have a pretty decent visibility to truck volumes next year, do you expect gross margin rate improvement to continue next year as well?

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

Well, we talked about the fourth quarter in this call, and we expect the fourth quarter to increase in the 15% to 15.5% range.

Tami Zakaria
Analyst at JPMorgan

Got it. Okay. Thank you so much.

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

All right.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Steven Fisher with UBS. Your line is now open.

Steven Fisher
Analyst at UBS

Thanks. Good morning. You gave us the growth in deliveries in Q4 and the steady retail for 2023. And I think you mentioned Peterbilt and Kenworth backlog are extending through the second quarter of next year. I'm just curious how much of a question mark would you say is the second half of 2023 in your mind at this point? Or are you anticipating still a pretty solid trajectory of orders really for the next few months that would still set up your second half for an extended period of steady production?

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

Well, thanks for the question. The way we look at it is that the first quarter is substantially full, as Harrie shared. We're taking strong order intake into the second quarter and into the second half as well. So we see nothing that's slowing us down in the year. Obviously, the further it gets out, the less clarity there is. But there's a great backlog of orders, and it's growing.

Harrie Schippers
President and Chief Financial Officer at PACCAR

Yes. Right now I would say that it's basically the supply base and the availability of components to build trucks that determines the pace of growth in the fourth quarter, and that's probably going to continue as we enter into next year as well, and then we'll see how long that takes.

Steven Fisher
Analyst at UBS

Okay. And then maybe if you could just give us some color on maybe the order activity by customer type. How much of the strength in trucks are you seeing is large fleets that are trying to take their fleet age down versus more broad strength? And are you seeing smaller and midsized fleets strong in the ordering as well as the large ones? And how do you expect that to evolve in kind of Q4 and in 2023? I'm guessing that the smaller fleets are maybe a bit more sensitive to freight market conditions, but I'm curious what you're seeing sort of in the underlying buildup of your book.

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

Yes. I think that the -- it's pretty well spread that there's a strong demand out there for trucks. I mean the vocational markets remain very good, 30% of the build. The larger companies are also ordering trucks for the year, and I think it comes back to those fundamentals of great trucks, and an undersupplied market for the past few years bodes well for a strong future.

Steven Fisher
Analyst at UBS

Okay. Thank you very much.

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

You bet.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Tim Thein with Citigroup. Your line is now open.

Tim Thein
Analyst at Citigroup

Thanks. Good morning. So the first question is just continuing on what you just mentioned as to the component availability restricting build rates and just overall production. To the extent that -- and I would presume, and maybe I'm wrong in this, but I would presume that that's led to some -- potentially some kind of prioritization as to what you want to produce.

Does that -- to the extent that eases next year, is there -- has there been a kind of a mix benefit that potentially goes the other way, and again, to the extent you're producing more vehicles, but presumably some that may or may not carry as attractive economics? So effectively, has this year led to, again, stronger mix benefit that potentially becomes less of a tailwind next year if we do start to see some easing of the supply base?

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

Maybe, Harrie, you want to swing at that?

Harrie Schippers
President and Chief Financial Officer at PACCAR

I don't see that we've prioritized certain customers over autos to -- I think we want to take care of all our customers by supplying them the trucks they need. Like Preston said, we've been capacity constrained for the last three years or so. So most customers that I talk to or hear from, they want to have more trucks and they want to have them quicker. And so we try to satisfy everybody more or less proportionately.

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

Yes, I think that would be too detailed. I would agree with Harrie. I think it's a little bit too detailed to try to think about it in terms of sectors and tailwinds and headwinds of what we're building. We're building all the trucks we can for our customers, and we're going to keep doing that.

Tim Thein
Analyst at Citigroup

Got it. Okay. And then Harrie, maybe back to your old shoes running DAF. Curious what you're seeing there from the standpoint of one of your peers had noted some fairly sizable increase in the energy-related costs and some relief to suppliers. How big, if at all, of an impact has that been to DAF in its operations in Europe?

Harrie Schippers
President and Chief Financial Officer at PACCAR

We do see in Europe that energy costs have come up. And like I think somebody mentioned on the call before, steel and aluminum prices have come down a little bit. So there's a balance there that with higher energy costs and higher labor costs overall, cost levels remain elevated. That's also why truck prices have gone up and continue to go up.

But I would say that in this environment with the new trucks that we just launched that customers love, it gives us a really good starting point to sell more trucks and grow market share as we've done. So DAF team is doing really well in the market we're currently in and taking full benefit of the new truck models that we launched.

Tim Thein
Analyst at Citigroup

Okay. And just -- and I guess we'll see it when the Q comes out. But just on that relationship between price and variable costs, was -- did the benefit increase from where it was in the second quarter, overall, not just Europe, but overall for the company?

Harrie Schippers
President and Chief Financial Officer at PACCAR

I would say that prices continued and increased in the third quarter compared to the second quarter and so did cost, but the price versus cost differential continue to be favorable for the company. That's why gross margins went up.

Tim Thein
Analyst at Citigroup

Got it. All right. Thanks for the time.

Harrie Schippers
President and Chief Financial Officer at PACCAR

You bet.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse. Your line is now open.

Jamie Cook
Analyst at Credit Suisse

Hi. Good morning, good afternoon, depending where you are. Nice quarter.

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

Thank you.

Jamie Cook
Analyst at Credit Suisse

I guess two questions. First, the deliveries. The deliveries were on the lower end of what you guys had forecast for the third quarter, and you obviously had that improving in the third -- in the fourth quarter to the 46,000, 50,000 range. So what's giving you confidence to bring up your delivery forecast? And why was the third quarter at the low end? And then where do you see sort of red tags as we exit the year?

And then my second question, I guess the one thing that struck me this quarter was the incremental margins were very strong, I think, in the low 20s, which is above the average. It's a better incremental margin than PACCAR typically puts up. Your view sort of on the sustainability of that, just given the strength that you're seeing in Parts and then potentially the help from the new product launches.

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

Well, let me start with the deliveries one as we guided 4,400 to 4,800, we had 4,400. We think about the third quarter, deliveries are -- obviously, there's fewer trucks built in Europe. And there's about 4,000, 4,500 trucks less built in Europe. And then we continue, as we say, is to have limitations underbuilt based on the supply-based constraints that are happening. So we see that gradually improving, hence, our guidance to the fourth quarter plus the no summer shutdown, some more build days. And our red tags are kind of at a similar level as you call them red tags for the second and third quarter, and we kind of expect that it will improve slightly in the fourth quarter.

So from a margin standpoint, your second question, you kind of almost answered it right. We have a great Parts performing team. And we guided in the fourth quarter that gross margins are going to improve to 15% and 15.5% range. We think that that's going to continue to be strong performance based upon the excellent new products, as you mentioned. That's what's going to keep the performance at the very high levels that we're seeing.

Jamie Cook
Analyst at Credit Suisse

Okay. So low 20s incrementals, is it a bad way to think about your business assuming volumes are there?

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

I'll let you think about it that way. We think about it in terms of how the business is running and what we're providing.

Jamie Cook
Analyst at Credit Suisse

I just want to know if my thinking is right, but -- okay -- I appreciate it.

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

Perfect and thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Stephen Volkmann with Jefferies. Your line is now open.

Stephen Volkmann
Analyst at Jefferies

Great. Thank you, guys. Most of my questions have been answered. But I guess, maybe a longer-term bigger-picture question. You've done a great job growing the parts business, including the gross margins kind of through the issues we've had over the last two or three years. But your Truck gross margins are still circa 300 basis points, I think, below pre-COVID levels. And I'm just curious how you're thinking about that going forward. Is there anything that would preclude us from getting back to those kind of 2018, '19 levels of gross margin? And if not, what would be sort of the key levers that need to be pulled to get back there?

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

Well, Harrie, you want to add?

Harrie Schippers
President and Chief Financial Officer at PACCAR

Well, Steve, as you know, our margins continue to improve. And the new products that we launched in North America and Europe have provided good tailwinds, I would say, to margin growth. And as you see it now, our margins are the best in the industry. And that's our goal to stay the best in the industry, and Parts plays the key role there and the new trucks and strong margins. All those new trucks will be a key element of that as well.

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

And I would agree with everything Harrie said, and I would add to that, that our operations teams have done an incredible job around the world of making sure we get as many trucks out as we can, and sometimes that's done less efficiently. So if that smooths out, then that will be an upside as well.

Stephen Volkmann
Analyst at Jefferies

Okay. Yes. Harrie, we always want more. So that was the spirit of the question. And then maybe I can just attach one more here. I was interested -- I mean your Financial Services results were quite good despite kind of lower revenue there. Was that mostly kind of the goodness of used truck sales? And I'm curious if that -- you're starting to see those prices kind of normalize again or maybe not yet.

Harrie Schippers
President and Chief Financial Officer at PACCAR

It's nice to see how the finance company continues to perform really, really strong, $146 million in the third quarter, second best quarter ever. So very proud of the team achieving and delivering those results. Business continues to go well. Portfolio quality is excellent. Past dues are like 0.3% [Indecipherable] really, really low. The revenues reflect the fact that our used truck inventories are at low levels, so there's less flow, less sales of used trucks. But the used trucks that we sell to that have 13 used truck centers, a growing portion of it that provides a nice tailwind for the finance company. And I would expect the finance company to continue to do well as we enter the fourth quarter and going into next year.

Stephen Volkmann
Analyst at Jefferies

Right. Thank you, guys.

Harrie Schippers
President and Chief Financial Officer at PACCAR

Sure. Thank you, Stephen.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of David Raso with Evercore. Your line is now open.

David Raso
Analyst at Evercore

Hi, thank you. For 2023, the order books, can you let us know how far they're open? And is that open for national fleets? Is it open for all size customers? Just trying to get a sense of how far out the books are open in North America and in Europe.

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

Yes. The order books are open, Dave. It's, as we said, substantially full in Q1, filing in well in the second quarter and even through this into the second half as customers look at their full year delivery plans and allocate their capital for next year. So yes, going well by all segments and really kind of as we would expect it for a strong year.

David Raso
Analyst at Evercore

And the pricing that's in the backlog, is that notably higher than what was shipping in the third quarter? Just trying to get a sense of sequential pricing from what's already in the book.

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

Well, we talked about the margin improvement into the fourth quarter, 14.9% grows to 15% to 15.5%. So that kind of implies that we have confidence in our price versus cost model, and we think we'll have that next year, too.

David Raso
Analyst at Evercore

I know you don't divulge truck margins by geography. But when you see what's in the book, you know what the new trucks are doing on your economics. When we think of any margin improvement next year, and at the moment, you're not assuming radically different growth rates in even EU versus U.S., Canada. How should we think about the margin improvement geographically? I'm trying to get a sense a bit, obviously, just cyclically thinking about next year. But structurally, is there something about some geographies? It might even be with another geographies. Just how to think about the margin improvement geographically knowing what the new trucks are doing?

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

What I think is that the new trucks around the world for PACCAR are doing so well in terms of their operating cost performance to our customers that, that is helpful to us in terms of margin. The percent of the product that we changed in Europe is a higher percent than we changed in North America, and so that's really helpful to us in Europe, and I think that our team in South America is doing a great job. In Australia, they're doing a great job. In Mexico, they're doing a great job. So I kind of look at it and think that it's happening everywhere for us.

David Raso
Analyst at Evercore

Terrific. One last quick one, if you don't mind. The used gain on sale, the used trucks in the FinCo. For the third quarter, I was curious, I mean, obviously, shipments have gotten a little better. But overall, the unit delivery wasn't great. And obviously, we can kind of equate when you're selling more new, it creates more used opportunities regardless of the used truck price. Was the gain on sale in the third quarter similar to the first two quarters? Is that roughly $35 million run rate?

Harrie Schippers
President and Chief Financial Officer at PACCAR

I would say it was more or less similar, David.

David Raso
Analyst at Evercore

Helpful. I appreciate it. Thank you.

Harrie Schippers
President and Chief Financial Officer at PACCAR

All right. Good day.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of John Joyner with BMO Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

John Joyner
Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

Hi, good morning. I just have one question. So following up on Steve's and Raso's question. With regard to used prices and such, I mean -- so I guess what happens on the other side of this when used prices do moderate to maybe a more normal level? I mean do you tend to put the trucks back through wholesale, or I guess how are you thinking about that?

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

Well, I think what we think is that if there is going to be a market that is constrained like it has been and truck age is up and freight volumes are up, then that could be some time before we experience that. We know the markets are cyclical. We have a great team in our financial services business. They do a really good job of adjusting to where the market is and maximizing the return on the DAF, Kenworth and Peterbilt products that really get a premium in the marketplace.

So regardless of the part of the cycle we operate in, we tend to get that premium. We continue to expand our capability in that area. We've opened up a new used truck center in Madrid. We continue to take advantage of the opportunities of selling more retail, and that's helpful to the business in the long term. Is there anything you'd add, Harrie?

Harrie Schippers
President and Chief Financial Officer at PACCAR

No, I think that summarizes it well.

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

Okay.

John Joyner
Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

All right, excellent. Thank you.

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

Thanks, John.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open.

Nicole DeBlase
Analyst at Deutsche Bank

Yeah. Thanks guys. Thanks for taking my questions.

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

Sure.

Nicole DeBlase
Analyst at Deutsche Bank

So maybe just starting with a little bit more on supply chain. So I totally understand that there's still a lot of constraints here. But have you guys observed any major signs of improvement if we just think about like how supply chain is going relative to last quarter and where we were at this time last year?

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

I think that compared to year-over-year, it's definitely better. I think that sequentially in the quarters, we see different issues that are kind of adjusting. We have really good relationships with our suppliers, and we continue to work with them to kind of solve out the issues. I'd say that it has shifted a little bit from being purely semiconductors to maybe being other labor kinds of issues and other material kinds of issues, but they're doing a really good job of helping us get the parts we need. Hence, we see that the production should grow in the fourth quarter.

Nicole DeBlase
Analyst at Deutsche Bank

Okay. That's really helpful. And you guys have increased your capex and R&D in 2023 relative to '22 as per the new guidance today. I guess what are the big drivers there? I think R&D, most people understand where the investment lies. But with respect to capex, what is causing that year-on-year step-up?

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

Well, we have a lot of really new projects that we're working on. We have some great clean diesel projects. We have some great zero emissions projects. We continue to make investments into our autonomous vehicle platform, our Connected Services platforms around the world and enhancing our production capacity so we can build more trucks and engines. And all of that is kind of what's driving those numbers, so it's fun to see those numbers moving just because they portend a great future for us.

Nicole DeBlase
Analyst at Deutsche Bank

Got it. Thanks. I'll pass it on.

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

Thanks.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Rob Wertheimer with Melius Research. Your line is now open.

Rob Wertheimer
Analyst at Melius Research

Hi. Thanks and good morning everybody.

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

Hello.

Rob Wertheimer
Analyst at Melius Research

So I guess my first question, I have two. One is on Europe and not so much on the demand side, but just on supply, where there's a lot of needs around energy and shortages and whether that will cause disruptions in the supply chain. And so I guess from your internal point of view, is that something you worry about? Do you see the next three to six months as being risky, and you don't know if a supplier is going to have an issue and shut down? Or is that something you see as more stable than perhaps I do?

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

Well, I think that everybody can read the same headlines, but I would tell you that from inside of our business, we work really closely with our suppliers so that we can understand anything they're dealing with. And so far, it's been pretty good. We look into next year and everybody is paying attention to it. We'll continue to work as partners to try to make sure we get the parts we need. I think we find ourselves in a pretty good position as we sit today.

Rob Wertheimer
Analyst at Melius Research

Okay. And the other one, and I apologize if you answered this in reference to Steve. But when you look at your aftermarket margin, obviously, there's been a lot of effort over a lot of years, and revenues and margin are both increasing. At this point, are you seeing disproportional contribution from proprietary parts as you kind of get that mix-up? Or is there still runway across the aftermarket business on revenue and margin?

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

Sure. I don't think it's disproportional. I think a lot of what's going on is the Parts team and our dealers are doing a fantastic job of this business growth and creating recurring revenue by serving the customers well and by helping them become more efficient. And I think that's a lot of systems, a lot of e-commerce, a lot of relationship building, and I expect that will continue.

Rob Wertheimer
Analyst at Melius Research

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.

Jerry Revich
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Hi, good morning. Good afternoon, everyone.

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

Hi, Jerry.

Jerry Revich
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Preston, wondering if you could talk about as you're having conversations with your customers that are interested in making longer-term plans for electrifying their fleets. How is their approach to procurement different at all in terms of the number of truck OEMs that are looking to use? Or any other differences in the process and the impact that you might have on your opportunity to get potentially better share in medium-duty market in an EV environment versus diesel?

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

Yes. I think that they use the same kind of analytics they do to make any kind of a buying decision as they're looking for an operating cost advantage, a total cost of ownership equation to work for them. It adds elements now with EVs because they think about charging and infrastructure and return and mileage and route and utilization. So we partner with them at Peterbilt, Kenworth, DAF in Parts, all partner with them to try to make sure they think about all the input costs that are going into it.

And then as well, the incentives that are available to it and use all that together to come up with kind of like when is it time to start into the market, try five or 10 or 20. And then when is the time going to be to move even more quickly. And I think that that's kind of a very active dialogue that depends upon their use case.

Jerry Revich
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Okay. And is that conversation any different in terms of number of participants versus diesel purchases? Or are they concentrating those conversations with fewer suppliers than they were in a diesel environment given the complexity?

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

No, I think that they have a high trust in PACCAR and our high quality and excellent performance overall. We have that, that is kind of a promise we make to them that we want to deliver on, and we'll do that through EVs as well. So I think that makes -- that we have a seat at the table to work with them and provide a successful solution for them.

Jerry Revich
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Okay. Super. And just to shift gears. Harrie, I apologize if I missed this. You talk about in Europe the backlog coverage that you have, how far out the lead times track today. And can you talk about -- so we're in the mid-17s from a market share standpoint in Europe as regulations are implemented. Can you talk about the time frame and opportunity for market share to continue -- to potentially move higher once the new regulations that you alluded to in the prepared remarks are implemented?

Harrie Schippers
President and Chief Financial Officer at PACCAR

Yes, the new masses and dimension regulations that we talked about allows for more aerodynamic and more fuel-efficient trucks to be designed if you meet certain criteria. DAF is taking full benefit of that new legislation. So as far as we can tell, DAF was the only truck manufacturer in Europe that has those trucks on the market today that puts us in a really strong position to grow margins and market share. Like you said, 17.4% share year-to-date, that's a record for DAF. With the new trucks, we're going to make excellent position to grow that market share even further in the coming years.

Jerry Revich
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

And sorry, Harrie, the lead time part of that question, how far out are you taking orders in Europe?

Harrie Schippers
President and Chief Financial Officer at PACCAR

We -- the first quarter is more or less full today at the current capacity that suppliers are providing us, and then we're filling in the second quarter nicely at this moment in time. So that's a really good balance. It's a nice backlog for us as we enter 2023.

Jerry Revich
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Okay. I appreciate the discussion. Thanks.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Feniger with Bank of America. Your line is now open.

Michael Feniger
Analyst at Bank of America.

Hey. Thanks for taking my questions. I know this got asked a little earlier. But just how should investors think about the gap you're seeing between spot freight rates and contract rates right now? How does that dynamic impact your customers' investing decisions going forward? Is that data point, that spread you're seeing between the contract and spot rates, is that relevant in terms of how they think about their investment profile and purchasing decisions profile over the next few months?

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

Well, I think that when you think the spot rates are a minority of the market, it's 15%, 20% portion of the market, when there's strong contract rates, which there are and when tonnage is at such high levels like it is, then I think there's still plenty of good business for them to have. And I think that they're still oversubscribed in terms of people wanting loads carried as a general statement, which is good for their businesses. And I would expect that, that's there being good for their business will be good for our business.

Michael Feniger
Analyst at Bank of America.

Makes sense. And if I look back like nine out of the last 12 years, your gross margins are up Q1 over Q4. So with the 15% to 15.5% guide in Q4, maybe help us understand why wouldn't gross margins increased from that level in the first quarter of next year. Anything we should think about there?

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

I don't think we said that they shouldn't. I think we said that we had good gross margins this quarter. We expect them to be very good next quarter and fourth quarter, and that we think 2023 will be a really good year.

Michael Feniger
Analyst at Bank of America.

That's helpful. And just if I could squeeze one more in just on the R&D. I mean you're finishing this year, I think, on an annual basis, up 2% to 5%. Your truck sales are up nearly 30%. You guys did guide for next year. It seems like there's a little bit of a catch-up and R&D spending is going to be up double digits. But how should we think about like going forward into 2024? Is -- should we be looking at R&D as a percent of sales as a metric? Any way to kind of think about some of the investments that you guys are making and how to think about that over the next few years, given your backlog and how you guys are thinking about the truck cycle going forward?

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

Sure. I can share with you how we think about it. We think of spending on R&D is that we have good projects that bring value to our customers. We're such a strong financially-positioned company that we spend the money we want to on the products that are going to bring value to our customers, and that's how we define our R&D spending.

Michael Feniger
Analyst at Bank of America.

Perfect. Thank you.

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

You bet.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Kauffman with Vertical Research Partners. Your line is now open.

Jeff Kauffman
Analyst at Vertical Research Partners

Thank you very much and congratulations, everybody.

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

Hi, Jeff.

Jeff Kauffman
Analyst at Vertical Research Partners

Hey. A lot of my questions have been answered, but I wanted to kind of follow up. I mean, things are changing globally, and currency has been one of those things that has changed pretty dramatically. But you'd never know it looking at your results. And I was just kind of curious if you could talk a little bit about how currency is impacting, whether it's the revenues or the profits being reported back. And kind of give us an idea of what kind of impact to think about when we're talking about the truck business, whether we're talking about the parts business, financial services business, as we think about moving toward 2023.

Michael Barkley
Senior Vice President, Controller at PACCAR

Yes, this is Michael. Revenues for Q3 were reduced by $325 million due to currency effects, mostly the euro, some offset with the Brazilian real was stronger. And for the year, it was $740 million. So there's been that effect, and the impact on profit was about -- net profit was about $20 million for Q3 and $50 million for year-to-date.

Jeff Kauffman
Analyst at Vertical Research Partners

Okay. And then just one follow-up. You talked about some of new investment platforms. And I was just wondering because every time I see one of your trucks out there, there seems to be an Aurora system attached to it these days in terms of just showing what's on the horizon. Can you talk a little bit about your progress there? And you had discussed maybe building some platforms where PACCAR could be a beneficiary of some of the information and data flows on some of these new vehicles for customers that were looking to electrify or go autonomous in a couple of years. Just kind of an update on some of these new platforms.

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

Sure. We're really pleased with the progress we're making with our partnerships with Aurora and others, and it's going really well. They're making excellent progress. Together, we are. We are developing, as you mentioned, Jeff, we're making this autonomous vehicle platform, which creates a system of redundancy, which makes operating the vehicle feasible. It integrates it into the truck through software as well. And our expertise and their expertise combined is creating, I think, a really neat product for the future.

Jeff Kauffman
Analyst at Vertical Research Partners

Okay. That's all I have. Thanks so much.

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

Thanks.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Matt Elkott with Cowen and Company. Your line is open.

Matt Elkott
Analyst at Cowen and Company

Thank you. Maybe I'll ask you guys on the cadence of new truck deliveries going forward, given how anomalous this environment has been and how it's pushed off the production cycle. As supply chain disruptions continue to ease and you're able to further optimize your manufacturing processes, could we see a more linear quarterly cadence than historically with deliveries or maybe even like steady, modest quarter-over-quarter increases in deliveries in the next few quarters?

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

Well, I think that as the supply base improves, it does make it smoother, as you're right to say that. I think we got to see it get totally smooth before we can take full advantage of that. I think that prediction of when that will be, we don't know how to make that. We just keep building all the trucks we can. And I would expect that, as we said, we expect deliveries increasing in the fourth quarter. And beyond that, we'll watch how the opportunities are. As we think that the demand is strong, we do think that next year still feels like at least the beginning to be supply constrained.

Matt Elkott
Analyst at Cowen and Company

Got it. And then just one last question. If you ask the off-highway equipment manufacturers that are expecting infrastructure-related projects to start hitting their backlog late this year. If we look back historically, can you -- is it easy for you guys to kind of trace some of your business to either residential or nonresidential construction activity in the U.S.? Residential is obviously moderating, but there's an expectation that infrastructure projects will start coming in next year.

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

And the U.S. markets, Kenworth and Peterbilt are the leaders in the vocational markets for trucks that support those kinds of projects and expect that will continue next year, and we do see strength in those markets. So we would expect that to be good news and a tailwind for 2023.

Matt Elkott
Analyst at Cowen and Company

Great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Scott Group with Wolfe Research. Your line is now open.

Scott Group
Analyst at Wolfe Research

Hey, thanks. We saw the really strong industry order numbers for September. Any color on October? Are you seeing anything directionally similar with September?

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

Yes, we're seeing continued strengthening even. So we're seeing that September was strong, and we see October being strong as well.

Scott Group
Analyst at Wolfe Research

Okay. On the currency question that Jeff asked, is fourth quarter similar with Q3 in terms of that net $20 million headwind? Or could it be a lot bigger than that?

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

Michael?

Michael Barkley
Senior Vice President, Controller at PACCAR

It will be similar to that. The euro had already started to drop last -- in the fourth quarter of last year. So -- but I would expect it to be about a similar number.

Harrie Schippers
President and Chief Financial Officer at PACCAR

Of course, it depends on what the exchange rates are going to be-- two months still.

Michael Barkley
Senior Vice President, Controller at PACCAR

Sure.

Scott Group
Analyst at Wolfe Research

And then just last thing with Nikola acquiring Romeo, does that have any impact on battery suppliers for you? How do you think about that?

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

Yes, we have a really good supply base structure with the battery producers in the world and have long-term contracts in place that give us adequate supply.

Scott Group
Analyst at Wolfe Research

So Nikola as a competitor acquiring a supplier of yours doesn't change anything?

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

No, in fact. It's our ability to produce EV vehicles.

Scott Group
Analyst at Wolfe Research

Okay. All right. Thank you guys.

R. Preston Feight
Chief Executive Officer at PACCAR

Yes. You bet.

Operator

There are no other questions in the queue at this time. Are there any additional remarks from the company?

Ken Hastings
Director of Investor Relations at PACCAR

We'd like to thank everyone for joining the call. And thank you, operator.

Operator

[Operator Closing Remarks]

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