Duke Energy Q3 2022 Earnings Report

Duke Energy EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $1.78
• Consensus EPS: $1.83
• Beat/Miss: Missed by -$0.05
• One Year Ago EPS: $1.88

Duke Energy Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $7.97 billion
• Expected Revenue: $7.45 billion
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$515.55 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: +14.60%

Duke Energy Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q3 2022
• Date: 11/3/2022
• Time: Before Market Opens
• Conference Call Date: Friday, November 4, 2022
• Conference Call Time: 10:30AM ET

Duke Energy (NYSE:DUK) is a U.S.-based electric power holding company headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina. The company’s core business is the generation, transmission and distribution of electricity to residential, commercial and industrial customers. Duke Energy operates a mix of regulated electric utilities and non-regulated energy businesses, providing essential energy infrastructure and services across multiple states.

Its operating activities include owning and operating generation assets across a portfolio that encompasses nuclear, natural gas, coal, hydroelectric and an expanding array of renewable resources, as well as battery storage and grid modernization projects. Duke Energy maintains and upgrades transmission and distribution networks, offers retail electric service, and provides energy-related services for large commercial and industrial customers. The company also develops utility-scale renewable projects and participates in demand-response, energy efficiency and customer-facing programs, including support for electric vehicle charging infrastructure.

Duke Energy traces its roots to early 20th-century regional utilities and has grown through a series of mergers and acquisitions to become one of the largest U.S. utilities; notable transactions in its modern history include mergers that expanded its footprint and customer base. The company serves customers primarily in the Southeast and Midwest, with significant operations in states such as North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Indiana and Kentucky. Duke Energy is governed by a board of directors and senior management who oversee utility operations, regulatory relationships and strategic investments in cleaner generation and grid resilience.

Duke Energy Q3 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Duke Energy restored power to 99% of customers within 72 hours after Hurricane Ian thanks to its grid hardening investments and a 20,000‐person mobilization.
• The company reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.78 and raised full‐year 2022 adjusted earnings guidance to $5.20–5.30 (excluding commercial renewables).
• Duke Energy’s Board approved the sale of its commercial renewables business after receiving attractive market indications, with proceeds to reduce holding‐company debt and fund the clean energy transition through 2027 without equity issuances.
• For 2023, Duke Energy expects 5–7% EPS growth to a range of $5.55–5.75, supported by core utility performance, midyear interest expense savings, and a ramped up $300 million cost‐mitigation target.
• Regulatory filings are underway—most notably North Carolina’s first performance‐based rate case and multi‐year plans in the Carolinas and Florida—while IRA tax credits valued at $1 billion are expected to lower customer costs.

Presentation

[Operator]

Hello all and welcome. My name is Bricka, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Duke Energy third quarter 2022 earnings conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise, and after the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, please press star two, and for operator assistance, please press star zero. Thank you. Jack Sullivan, Vice President of Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.

[Jack Sullivan, VP of Investor Relations at Duke Energy]

Thank you, Bricka, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Duke Energy's third quarter 2022 earnings review and business update. Leading our call today is Lynn Good, Chair, President, and CEO, along with Brian Savoy, Executive Vice President and CFO.Today's discussion will include the use of non-GAAP financial measures and forward-looking information within the meaning of securities laws. Actual results may be different than forward-looking statements, and those factors are outlined herein and disclosed in Duke Energy's SEC filings. The appendix of today's presentation includes supplemental information and disclosures along with a reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures. With that, let's turn the call over to Lynn.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

Jack, thank you, and good morning, everyone. Before I begin, I'd like to take a moment and recognize the work of our team in responding to Hurricane Ian, one of the most powerful and destructive storms in U.S. history. Duke Energy mobilized 20,000 people working day and night to restore power to over two million customers across Florida and the Carolinas. What's more impressive is the speed in which we did it, with 99% of our customers restored within 72 hours. This is an amazing accomplishment and a testament to our strong preparation, the tireless effort of our restoration teams, and the value of our grid hardening investments. Moving to our financial results today, we announced adjusted earnings per share of $1.78 for the third quarter.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

We continue to see strong volumes from the electric utilities offset by lower contributions from commercial renewables due to fewer projects placed in service compared to 2021. Turning to the commercial renewables business, we've completed the strategic review, and our board has authorized the sale of this business. I'll provide more context about this decision in a moment, but first, I'd like to address what this means for our 2022 earnings guidance. Beginning in the fourth quarter, we will move commercial renewables to discontinued operations and remove it from guidance going forward. Bringing focus to our core regulated businesses, we are updating full year 2022 adjusted earnings guidance to a range of $5.20-$5.30. The $5.25 midpoint of this updated range represents our original guidance midpoint of $5.45, less the $0.20 contribution we originally forecasted for commercial renewables.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

The regulated utilities remain on track for 2022, with strong operating results offsetting rising financing costs, giving us confidence in achieving earnings within this tighter range. Turning to slide five, in August, we announced a strategic review of the commercial renewables business, which includes our utility scale renewables platform and a smaller distributed generation business. As part of this review, we've worked with advisors to evaluate the strategic fit of these businesses and to test the market on valuation. We've received indications of interest for the utility scale business at attractive valuations, and this process will continue through year-end. We expect to announce a definitive transaction in Q1 2023 and close as early as mid-year. We're preparing the sale process for the distributed generation business, which includes REC Solar, and expect this transaction will follow a similar timeline to closing.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

The majority of proceeds from both transactions will be used to reduce holding company debt. This will strengthen the balance sheet and allow us to fund our clean energy transition without common equity issuances through at least 2027. I'm very proud of our commercial team, who has remained focused on maximizing the value of the portfolio, continuing to expand our robust development pipeline and operating our renewables fleet with excellence. With this pending change in our business mix, I'd like to walk you through our earnings trajectory over the next two years. For 2023, we're introducing a guidance range of $5.55-$5.75, with a midpoint of $5.65. This reflects 5%-7% growth off the updated 2022 EPS midpoint of $5.25. It also includes the partial year benefit from lower interest expense after reducing Holdco debt with sales proceeds.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

Turning to 2024 and beyond, we expect to grow 5%-7% off the 565 midpoint of our 2023 guidance range through 2027. The 2023 guidance range reflects what we know today, including the present interest rate environment, inflation, supply chain constraints, and an economic forecast that continues to support positive GDP growth in 2023. The economic outlook remains uncertain and will continue to closely monitor trends. Consistent with past practices, we'll do all we can to control costs to match challenges in our business while maintaining excellent service to our customers. As a result, we've increased our 2023 cost mitigation target from $200 million to $300 million. We expect about 75% of these savings to be sustainable over the long term.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

We will keep you apprised along the way and look forward to sharing our traditional guidance package on the year-end earnings call in February. Brian will provide more on our 2023 earnings drivers, but I want to underscore the strength of our underlying core utility business. We operate premier regulated franchises in growing service territories with constructive regulatory jurisdictions and robust customer-focused investment opportunities. They have always been the lifeblood of our company, and this portfolio transition will fully highlight the strong, predictable, transparent earnings and cash flows from our premier regulated utilities and strengthen our overall investor value proposition. Next, I'd like to take a few minutes to highlight some of the important strategic work underway throughout our jurisdictions. Moving to slide six. In October, we filed our first performance-based regulation application under HB 951.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

We filed with the North Carolina Utilities Commission, requesting a review of the significant investments we're making for our 1.5 million Duke Energy Progress customers served in North Carolina. The rate increase would cover upgrades we've made to improve grid reliability and resiliency and to facilitate a clean, secure energy future. Our application contains a traditional base rate case based on historical investments and known and measurable changes projected through April of 2023. Our request is mitigated by a reduction in annual operating costs of over $100 million since our last rate case. In addition to historic investments, our application includes gradual customer rate step-ups over the next three years to recover future investments we will make through the multi-year rate plan.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

This consists of roughly $3.8 billion of capital projects that are projected to go into service by 2025, approximately 75% of which is related to transmission and distribution investments. Evidentiary hearings are expected to begin in the May 2023 timeframe. Consistent with past practice, we intend to implement temporary rates in June for the historic base case subject to refund. If approved, we expect year one revised rates to be effective by October 1, 2023. Turning to slide seven. Our focus on providing customers with affordable, reliable, and cleaner energy continues to advance across each of our jurisdictions. In North Carolina, Carbon Plan hearings concluded in late September after almost three weeks, and we submitted our proposed order at the end of October. During the hearings, we presented strong testimony that confirms the need for our near-term development activities.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

The NCUC will make a final decision on the Carbon Plan by the end of this year. We expect to file a Duke Energy Carolinas' rate case with the NCUC in early 2023. In South Carolina, we filed a rate case for Duke Energy Progress in September as we continue to work on increasing system reliability and resiliency and enhancing the customer experience. To ease the impact of these investments on customers, proposed rates would go into effect over two years, beginning in the first half of 2023. In Florida, the Florida Public Service Commission approved our Storm Protection Plan update in October. Over the next 10 years, we expect to deploy $7 billion in capital investments through this rider. Shifting to the Midwest. In Indiana, we're updating our Integrated Resource Plan.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

We've held the first of three public information sessions with stakeholders to share information about plans under consideration, and we anticipate filing CPCNs for new generation resource needs with the commission beginning in early 2023. In Ohio, we completed a hearing in October for our electric distribution rate case. We expect to receive a final order by the end of 2022 or early 2023. Moving to slide 8, I'd like to update you on our ongoing review of the clean energy provisions under the IRA legislation. High energy costs are top of mind for our customers, and the IRA's clean energy tax credits present an opportunity to help address those issues. We expect to qualify for a variety of PTCs and ITCs that will generate billion dollars in tax credits over the next decade.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

These tax credits will be returned to our customers, lowering our overall cost of service and providing for a more affordable energy transition. We will continue to evaluate the impact of the corporate minimum tax as new information and guidance from Treasury becomes available. Because of the credits generated by our substantial clean energy infrastructure investments, we do not expect this to have a material impact on our cash flows. In closing, we're advancing our strategy across our jurisdictions, balancing the progress of our clean energy transition while preserving affordability and reliability for our customers and communities. I'm confident in our long-term earnings growth and ability to execute our strategy moving forward. As I look ahead, we're well positioned to deliver exceptional value to our customers, stakeholders, and investors. With that, let me turn the call over to Brian.

[Brian Savoy, EVP and CFO at Duke Energy]

Thanks, Lynn, and good morning, everyone. I'll start with a brief discussion on our quarterly results, highlighting a few of the key variances to the prior year. As shown on slide nine, we had reported earnings per share of $1.81 compared to $1.79 last year. As Lynn shared, we are moving forward with the sale of our commercial renewables business and will move those results to discontinued operations in the fourth quarter. For presentation purposes going forward, our focus will be on the strong earnings profile of our core regulated operations, which delivered $1.78 in adjusted EPS in the third quarter. On a year-to-date basis, our core operations generated earnings of $4.15 compared to $4.10 for 2021. Please see our non-GAAP reconciliation included in the earnings release for more details.

[Brian Savoy, EVP and CFO at Duke Energy]

Within our core business segments, electric utilities and infrastructure was up $0.06 compared to the prior year, driven by higher retail volumes and lower O&M. Partially offsetting these items were higher depreciation costs on our growing investment base. We continue to be encouraged by the sustained retail load growth in the post-COVID environment, and I will provide more on the volume trends in a moment. Shifting to gas utilities and infrastructure, results were $0.01 higher than last year due to increases in riders and the North Carolina Piedmont rate case. In the other segment, we were $0.07 lower, primarily due to higher financing costs, timing of tax expense, and lower returns on investments. Turning to slide 10, I'll touch on electric volumes and economic trends.

[Brian Savoy, EVP and CFO at Duke Energy]

On a 12-month rolling average basis, total retail volumes are up 1.7%, in line with our 2022 load growth forecast of 1.5%-2%. In the third quarter, higher year-over-year volumes were driven by residential customer growth of 1.7%. We continue to see strong and steady migration to our service territories and continuing expansion in the commercial class, including higher data center usage. This was partially offset by lower industrial volumes, isolated to a few automotive customers experiencing supply chain constraints. We are closely monitoring how these factors and other potential economic dynamics are impacting our customers' usage, but we continue to expect 2022 volume growth to land within our 1.5%-2% range.

[Brian Savoy, EVP and CFO at Duke Energy]

Our economic development achievements to attract jobs and capital investment to our service territories were recently recognized by Site Selection Magazine, which named Duke Energy a top utility for economic development for the 17th consecutive year. We've continued to accelerate this work into 2022. We've partnered with our states to win record-setting projects in North Carolina with semiconductor manufacturer Wolfspeed, in South Carolina with BMW's entry into the EVs market, and in Indiana with a Stellantis Samsung EV battery plant. These projects and others announced throughout 2022 involve capital investments exceeding $20 billion and will bring more than 24,000 jobs to our growing service territories. We'll begin to see top-line growth from these business expansions as we progress through the 5-year plan. We break down the outlook for the fourth quarter on slide 11.

[Brian Savoy, EVP and CFO at Duke Energy]

We're well-positioned to achieve our updated 5.25 adjusted EPS midpoint for 2022. Year to date, our core regulated business has generated earnings, adjusted earnings of 4.15. We expect a solid finish to the year with continued strong performance in our regulated utilities. We have good line of sight to the remaining $1.10 in the fourth quarter. Let me take a moment to highlight some of the key drivers. Beginning with the electric segment, we expect year-over-year revenue favorability from higher volumes, which were impacted by the Omicron variant in 2021. A return to normal weather in the Florida multi-year rate plan and other riders. Turning to gas, we will benefit from rate cases and our integrity management riders. We will see lower O&M across our electric and gas operations.

[Brian Savoy, EVP and CFO at Duke Energy]

The timing of plant outages and shaping of O&M led to higher O&M in the first half of 2022 as compared to 2021. We saw this trend begin to reverse in Q3 and expect it to accelerate in Q4. Finally, we expect the other segment to be unfavorable to the prior year, primarily due to higher interest expense. Moving to slide 12, I'll highlight the key growth drivers for 2023 that support our $5.55-$5.75 EPS range for the year. 2023 reflects the acceleration of investments in our clean energy transition across our service territories and the implementation of key provisions from House Bill 951. Beginning with the electric segment, we'll enter 2023 with load that is 2% higher than pre-pandemic levels.

[Brian Savoy, EVP and CFO at Duke Energy]

Going forward, we expect load growth to be back in line with our pre-pandemic assumption of flat to 0.5% growth per year. This will be offset by weather, which has been favorable year to date in 2022. Shifting to rate cases and riders, we have an active regulatory calendar across our jurisdictions. This includes three rate cases in the Carolinas and two rate cases in Ohio. In Florida, we'll move to the second year of our multi-year rate plan with an updated 10.1% ROE. Finally, we see growth through continued investment in our electric and gas riders. Macroeconomic conditions remain dynamic. As Lynn mentioned earlier, we're exercising our business agility by increasing our 2023 cost mitigation target from $200 million to $300 million.

[Brian Savoy, EVP and CFO at Duke Energy]

We have a strong track record of pulling both structural and tactical leverage to flex our costs to meet business challenges head on and are confident we can achieve these savings. Lastly, we will enjoy a partial year benefit of interest expense savings from reduced holdco debt with proceeds from the commercial renewable sale. Before we open it up for questions, let me close with slide 13. With the pending sale of our commercial business, we'll transition to a fully regulated business with robust investment opportunities, roughly $145 billion over the next decade. This also positions the company with a de-risk earnings profile, giving us confidence in achieving our 2023 adjusted EPS guidance range of $5.55-$5.75 and 5%-7% growth rate.

[Jack Sullivan, VP of Investor Relations at Duke Energy]

With that, we'll open the line for your questions.

[Operator]

Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please star then one on your telephone keypad. If you change your mind, please press star two. We have the first question on the phone lines from Shar Pourreza from Guggenheim Partners. Your line is now open.

[Shar Pourreza, Director and Head Supervisory Analyst at Guggenheim Partners]

Hey, good morning, guys.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

Hi, Shar.

[Jack Sullivan, VP of Investor Relations at Duke Energy]

Morning.

[Shar Pourreza, Director and Head Supervisory Analyst at Guggenheim Partners]

Good morning. When you guys put out a 2023 guidance figure out there without a commercial deal actually being announced. I know obviously you see robust interest, but the ultimate transaction multiple here matters a lot. Lynn, can you maybe touch a little bit on your sort of level of confidence here ahead of selecting a bidder? Do you have some firm offers that's giving you this kind of visibility into 2023 and to have this tight of an EPS range or recent deals in New York, a good proxy? Have you narrowed down the bidders? I guess just some more visibility on this pending deal that's kind of embedded in your 2023 guide would be really helpful and if there's any conservative bent here. Thanks.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

Thanks, Shar. Sure. You know, I would start by saying, you know, Shar, we have a lot of experience in dealing with portfolio transactions, if you think about the history of Duke. As we began the strategic review process, a lot of work has been done not only to challenge our strategic assumptions, but also to do work in the market, hiring advisors, you know, understanding the range of potential valuations, including soliciting feedback from the market and feedback from credible counterparties. We do have indications of interest, robust indications of interest from credible counterparties, and have a high degree of confidence that we will transact on this business. All of that went into our decision to announce the sale.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

That's, you know, kind of consistent with the way we would approach anything of this magnitude and this type of decision to do our homework before we announce. When we look at the guidance range for 2023, we not only have commercial renewables contemplated with a high degree of confidence we'll execute, but we have strong regulated growth, and we also have strong cost mitigation already in place and ready to go in light of some of the headwinds that we're all experiencing in the economy. I feel like we've put together a very credible guidance range for a company that represents one of the strongest regulated utilities in the industry. We feel like 2023 is off to a strong start.

[Shar Pourreza, Director and Head Supervisory Analyst at Guggenheim Partners]

Got it. Just tax leakage. I guess you guys have enough in plan to offset any kind of leakage there from the sale.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

We believe we can manage within this range, Shar. We wouldn't have put it out there if we didn't.

[Shar Pourreza, Director and Head Supervisory Analyst at Guggenheim Partners]

Okay.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

think we could do that.

[Shar Pourreza, Director and Head Supervisory Analyst at Guggenheim Partners]

Okay.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

High degree of confidence in executing and a high degree of confidence in the range.

[Shar Pourreza, Director and Head Supervisory Analyst at Guggenheim Partners]

Okay. Perfect. Lastly, Lynn, turning to the Carbon Plan, obviously the commission's been very clear at hearings and in filings that that intends to meet that 31st December deadline to have a final order and an initial plan in place. I mean, obviously you guys highlighted last week you filed a proposed order on the docket supporting a real wide range of different technologies, but everyone seems to be kind of in different directions. Doesn't appear we have a lot of consensus among over a dozen parties that are involved. It's a little bit more contentious than we would've thought. I guess, how does the commission bridge these gaps? It seems to be a little bit of a tight timeframe by year end. Thanks.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

Sure. You know, Shar, what I would say to you is the feedback in this process is something that looks reasonable and somewhat predictable to us. The solar industry is interested in more solar. The industrials are interested in low prices. Low income are interested in the impact to low income. Attorney general and the environmental community want us to go as fast as we can to reduce carbon. As we look at how the hearing rolled out the testimony that we presented, the case that we put forward, we felt like all of those positions were well understood, were well discussed in the hearing, and didn't find them surprising in any way, frankly. But that's what creates kind of the fertile ground for the commission to make decisions.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

The good news is, in the near term, it's all about solar and battery, and we have time on the long term to make decisions about some of the more difficult, you know, pumped storage, SMR, offshore wind. We think there's a strength to our recommendation to use the next couple of years to look at development on those key technologies so that we're prepared by the middle of the decade to make the decisions about where to go. I would say a very good process, a very transparent process, not surprising in any way on where the parties put forward their positions. I think the commission has a lot of good information on which to make their decision, and we expect them to do so by the end of the year.

[Shar Pourreza, Director and Head Supervisory Analyst at Guggenheim Partners]

Got it. Terrific, guys. Thanks so much, and we'll see you in about a week. Appreciate it.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

Yeah. Thanks, Shar.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith of Bank of America. Please go ahead when you're ready, Julien.

[Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Research Analyst at Bank of America]

Hey, good morning, Lynn and team. Thank you guys very much.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

Hi, Julien.

[Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Research Analyst at Bank of America]

I appreciate it. Hey, good morning. Lynn, just following up from Shar's question, maybe a couple details tied to it. Again, I see the discount op, so can you talk a little bit about the partial year assumption of lower interest expense? Just what's the timing assumed there?

[Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Research Analyst at Bank of America]

I know people are looking very carefully at these 2023 numbers. Just if you can elaborate there. Then related, actually, I'll just ask you the follow-up would be, can you elaborate a little bit on the effectively the 30 cents of cost reductions with the $300 million? How does that square with the earlier sensitivity you provided against interest rates at this point? How, effectively, where are you on 2023 and beyond assumptions on sort of effectively fully offsetting that impact?

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

Sure. Julien, I think for planning purposes, we are thinking about the commercial renewables transaction as being mid-year. We'll know more as we get into the final round bidding, et cetera, and hope to be able to give you more feedback in the February call. I think mid-year, as the partial year would be the right planning assumption. On the cost reduction, I think you'll recall that back in the second quarter, we had undertaken something that we call the work reduction initiative, really focused on ways we can simplify work, use digital technologies, in order to streamline our governance processes, our reporting processes, et cetera, and we were targeting $200 million. We were also at the same time looking at supply chain and looking at other things that we could do to potentially more tactically move O&M out of 2023.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

We were able to re-increase that $200 million target to $300 million. We have sized that, Julien, to give us confidence around the macroeconomic trends. When I look at interest rates, for example, we are in a position with the work that we've done to be able to hit this guidance range despite the headwind of interest rates. As we look ahead beyond 2023, we have modest amounts of maturities in 2024, and we also see the benefit of the IRA showing up more materially in 2024. I think we've talked about the nuclear PTCs being consequential for us. We see IRA as not only benefiting customers, but being credit positive, cash flow positive to the utility.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

We feel like we've got good plans in place here and are really pleased that we, you know, got after cost reduction. As you know, we always do early enough in 2022 that we have a high degree of confidence for 2023 and beyond. We think of the $300 million, 75% of it is sustainable.

[Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Research Analyst at Bank of America]

Got it. If I may just to continue with that thought, the unsustainable piece, that remaining 25%, is that order of magnitude pretty comparable to the interest savings that you get from the tailwind in 2024 from the first half of the year with the commercial renewables having you know a run rate impact on the sale?

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

You know, Julien, I haven't thought about it. I haven't thought about that specifically because the way I approach every year is looking for a way to save money. We may have come up with some new ideas in 2023 for 2024. The continuous improvement mindset at Duke runs pretty deep, and we're always trying to find ways to reduce costs.

[Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Research Analyst at Bank of America]

Got it. So the cash flow uplift on the nuclear side to your credit metrics, just to elaborate on that, if you can. I know things are still in flux a bit, but if you can quantify that.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

You know, Julien, it's $several hundred million, we believe. We believe our regulated fleet qualifies, and we operate very low cost nuclear units. In the meantime, we have the opportunity to strengthen the balance sheet or the cash flows, if you will, from those credits.

[Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Research Analyst at Bank of America]

Thank you again. Good luck. Talk to you soon.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

Thank you.

[Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Research Analyst at Bank of America]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you. We now have the next question from the line of Steve Fleishman of Wolfe Research. Please go ahead when you're ready.

[Steve Fleishman, Managing Director and Senior Analyst at Wolfe Research]

Hi, good morning.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

Hi, Steve.

[Steve Fleishman, Managing Director and Senior Analyst at Wolfe Research]

Hi, Lynn. I think you just answered this on Julien's question, but just to maybe ask again a little differently. Obviously, the cost cutting offsets, you know, a lot of pressures in 2023. In 2024 and beyond, as you mentioned, the cost cutting moderates, and it goes through regulated rates also. The Holdco debt, you know, refinancing and stuff continues assuming rates stay high. It sounds like what you're thinking is that the approved cash flow and performance at the utilities kind of can sustain the offset. Is that how to think about beyond 2023?

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

You know, Steve, I would maybe expand the thinking to be a little broader than that. We also use tools like interest rates hedging, which you would expect us to. We have one billion of proceeds from GIC coming in. We have the commercial renewable transaction. We have cost mitigation. We've sized it at $200 million-$300 million in this year. That will carry forward, and we'll continue to look for ways to drive costs out of the business. We also have the IRA coming. I feel like we've got a variety of tools, and as we look at sort of the profile into 2024, even in this present environment, we don't have a lot of additional headwinds because of a relatively light maturity period.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

I would think about all of those factors together, and you know, recognize that we are working very strategically to minimize these costs and to manage the business effectively.

[Steve Fleishman, Managing Director and Senior Analyst at Wolfe Research]

Okay, great. Just in terms of thinking about kind of dividend growth.

[Steve Fleishman, Managing Director and Senior Analyst at Wolfe Research]

Should we assume you continue at kind of a rate below the earnings growth for another couple years before you move it up into their earnings growth range?

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

You know, Steve, it's a really good question and one we're looking at closely. You know, we had set a target of being in the 65%-70% payout range, and in this five-year period, we will be well-positioned in that range. Our expectation would be to recommend a dividend increase at the right time in the five-year period to match something closer to, you know, the growth in the business. I think 2% is a good planning assumption for 2023. We'll look at it again in 2024 and beyond, but this is something that's getting a lot of attention in light of the de-risking of the business, in the light of the strength of the capital, the cash flow we're anticipating, and the work that we've done to moderate the payout ratio.

[Steve Fleishman, Managing Director and Senior Analyst at Wolfe Research]

Okay, great. Thanks so much.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you, Steve. We now have David Arcaro of Morgan Stanley.

[David Arcaro, Executive Director at Morgan Stanley]

Oh, hey, good morning. Thanks so much for taking my questions.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

Good morning.

[David Arcaro, Executive Director at Morgan Stanley]

I was wondering if you could just, maybe elaborate a little bit more around the load growth backdrop that you're seeing, and sounded like flat to 0.5% growth assumed into 2023. What are the puts and takes there? Is that conservative based on what you've seen so far this year? Then would be just curious on that industrial slowdown that you've seen. Do you expect that to continue into 2023 as well? Is that factored in?

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

David, I'll make a couple comments and then turn it over to Brian. You know, we use a conservative load growth assumption in our planning. We size our cost structure to be consistent with that. But when I look at the strength of the economy that we are enjoying right now and the volumes that are coming through, we're very well-positioned. You know, Brian made a comment in his remarks that we're already, you know, 2% above pre-pandemic levels, which I think is quite an extraordinary rebound. Brian, how would you add to that, and maybe talk a little bit about the industrial trends?

[Brian Savoy, EVP and CFO at Duke Energy]

First on the general economy, David, we continue to see migration into our territories and it's driving both the residential and the commercial class. Those growth profiles are strong, and as Lynn said, we use conservative assumptions as we look out in future years to really size our business. On the industrial side, we've seen some companies with planned shutdowns this quarter, so we don't feel like it's a trend that's gonna linger. It was planned. As well as, you know, some of the supply chain bottlenecks that continue to show up in different pockets of industry. The automotive sector was one this quarter that showed up. Again, those things are worked out over time and nothing systemic.

[Brian Savoy, EVP and CFO at Duke Energy]

We're still bullish on all three sectors.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

You know, David, some of the statistics we shared with you on economic development are also noteworthy, and that's not even a complete list of what's happened in 2022. North Carolina was rated number one for business for a reason, which, you know, low tax environment and a, you know, good workforce, great university system, and we have had an extraordinary year from an economic development standpoint. We expect that to show up over the five-year period.

[David Arcaro, Executive Director at Morgan Stanley]

That's right. Got it. Thanks so much. That's helpful. Was interested in just expanding a bit more on the cost reduction outlook into 2023. What are you seeing for inflationary pressures right now in the O&M budgets? Obviously, the backdrop has been tough in terms of inflation pressures, but you're expanding the cost reduction aspirations into next year. Wondering just how achievable that looks and what pressures you're seeing in the current environment.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

Yeah, we do see some inflationary pressures. I would point to materials, I would point to labor, but all of that, David, was a part of the analysis that went into our cost reduction efforts. I don't see anything happening in the inflation environment that's impacting our commitment to drive these costs out of the business. You know, the other thing I would point to, a lot of the material, you know, inflation is showing up in our capital plan. We're monitoring that as well to make sure that, you know, we're spending capital in a prudent way to benefit customers.

[David Arcaro, Executive Director at Morgan Stanley]

Okay, understood. I appreciate it. Thanks so much.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

Thank you.

[Operator]

We now have Nicholas Campanella of Credit Suisse. Your line is now open.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

Hi, Nick.

[Nicholas Campanella, Senior Equity Research Analyst at Credit Suisse]

Hey, good morning, everyone. Thanks.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

Hi.

[Nicholas Campanella, Senior Equity Research Analyst at Credit Suisse]

Hi.

[Nicholas Campanella, Senior Equity Research Analyst at Credit Suisse]

I guess just, you know, thanks for the updates on the CAGR. You know, it sounds like, you know, you're now kind of including the inflation outlook going forward, so that's great. I recall on just previous calls and talking about the CAGR, you kinda talked about, you know, getting to the higher end of the range, as the multi-year rate plans kinda come into effect, and you kinda execute on this, on this Carbon Plan. I'm just curious, you know, if you could just update the investment community on, you know, if that dynamic still exists, as we get to the out years here in the new CAGR. Thank you.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

Yeah. Nick, thanks for that question. You know, let me start by saying we believe our regulated business with this clean energy transition, $145 billion of capital over the 10 years, has the potential to achieve at the high end of the range. But given the dynamic economic environment that we're in right now, we believe 5%-7% is the right range to use for the planning assumption, and know that we will work every year to be as well-positioned within that range as we possibly can. We've talked about many of those puts and takes, you know, IRA benefits, reducing O&M, all of these things represent opportunities as the plan unfolds. Further, this very meaningful regulatory activity that's underway is another key ingredient. The first multi-year rate plan filing for DEP occurred this year.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

We're expecting another one, another filing for DEC in the coming year. We're putting pieces in place and trying to address the macroeconomic environment at the same time. We believe all of this, given the, you know, premier regulated utilities that we offer, is a very strong value proposition for investors.

[Nicholas Campanella, Senior Equity Research Analyst at Credit Suisse]

Thanks for that. Then I just wanted to pivot to renewables quick. You know, acknowledging that you are, you know, moving away from the commercial segment, but, you know, as you mentioned, you're doing, you know, a ton in the regulated arena. Just maybe a general state of the state on what you're seeing in the renewable supply chain at this point. You know, I see that you're still kind of executing in Florida with the 300 MW that went into service in 2022 as planned. Just general kind of comments on supply chain and ability to kind of get things done in the five-year window. Thanks.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

Yeah, Nick, thank you for that. I think as we've talked over the last, you know, year with some of the challenges in the supply chain, we have always leaned to our regulated business and made sure we have adequate supply. We have extended our purchasing relationship with our suppliers to extend on a multi-year period so that we have confidence around supply into 2026 and beyond with options to continue. We're putting similar arrangements in place for battery storage. We are confident in our ability to execute the regulated plan and have just so many opportunities as we pursue this clean energy transition. We are working to make sure we've got the supply chain, the labor, et cetera, and have been successful so far and see that continuing.

[Nicholas Campanella, Senior Equity Research Analyst at Credit Suisse]

Thanks a lot, Lynn. See you soon.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you. Your next question comes from Durgesh Chopra with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead when you're ready.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

Good morning.

[Durgesh Chopra, Managing Director at Evercore ISI]

Hey, good morning, Lynn. I just had a quick follow-up, hopefully quick, on the interest expense into 2023. Any color, Brian, that you can share as to what level of rates, interest rates are you using, as we look out to 2023, you know, particularly related to your variable debt, so we can kind of do the sensitivity, as we look out to the interest rate outlook here?

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

You know, Durgesh, the sensitivity of 100 basis points representing about $0.12 is probably the best and cleanest without getting into specific detail on commercial paper and, you know, long-term debt, recognizing the tenor can fluctuate. I think that's a really good proxy for you, and would point you there.

[Durgesh Chopra, Managing Director at Evercore ISI]

Okay, perfect. Thank you. I appreciate it.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you. We now have Sophie Karp of KeyBanc. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.

[Sophie Karp, Managing Director at KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc.]

Hi. Good morning. Thank you for taking-

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

Good morning, Sophie.

[Sophie Karp, Managing Director at KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc.]

my question.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

Yes.

[Sophie Karp, Managing Director at KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc.]

A couple of questions here, if I may. First, with the sale of renewable business, does that present an opportunity for you to have conversations with rating agencies about reviewing and maybe improving your corporate credit rating? What impact could it have on your borrowing costs?

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

Yeah. We keep, you know, close relationship with the agencies, and by that I mean sharing with them all of our plans, what we expect in terms of this transaction, the de-risking of the business. I wouldn't expect, though, given the magnitude of this, Sophie, it's only 5% of the business, that it would have an impact on downgrade threshold or anything of that sort. It, you know, gives us an opportunity to de-risk. It gives us an opportunity to bring in some cash, and all of that is important to the agencies, and we'll keep them apprised every step of the way.

[Sophie Karp, Managing Director at KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc.]

Got it. Thank you. On the cost-cutting initiatives you're talking about, the total target that you're talking about is really impressive, especially given the inflationary environment that we are in and how some of your peers are struggling to control costs right now. Could you maybe share some examples? I don't know about what you're planning to do there, so we can get a better sense of what your initiatives are with cost controls?

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

Sure.

[Sophie Karp, Managing Director at KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc.]

Maybe some examples from the ground. Mm-hmm.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

Yeah. Sophie, appreciate that. You know, the one comment I would make is this is where size and scale matters, because we've had an opportunity to drive costs through the supply chain as a result of that size and scale. That has been helpful. Also a variety of other projects. We've been working on this over the course of the summer, looking at work reduction efforts. Brian, you might have some perspective that you would share on specific examples, maybe some of the reporting, the governance.

[Brian Savoy, EVP and CFO at Duke Energy]

Yeah

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

the digital.

[Brian Savoy, EVP and CFO at Duke Energy]

Yeah, certainly, Sophie, and good morning. We really took a fresh look at the Entire corporation and said, "How are we gonna get the work done we need to get done?" We prioritized certain roles over others. We said some roles had more purpose five years ago, and now they need to be repositioned. We looked at our real estate footprint and said, "How can we optimize the real estate in this post-COVID world?" There was an opportunity there to really reduce the amount of corporate real estate we operate. We just looked at governance across the company and making sure that we maintain our controls, but while running a leaner organization.

[Brian Savoy, EVP and CFO at Duke Energy]

It was really a grassroots effort where we got input from all of our teammates to try to figure out what are the best areas to execute on. We have over 200 initiatives, so it isn't a one-shot thing. It's many small singles and bunt singles that are gonna add up to this $200 million, and that we've upsized to $300 million as we've looked at the opportunity set.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

You know, Sophie, one example in Brian's area that I would share, if you look at the amount of reporting that comes out of finance at Duke Energy, there's a lot of it. Not all of it results in decision-making. We've used this as an opportunity to sweep through what kind of information do we give our operating leaders in order to manage their business. Similarly in IT, you know, lots and lots of applications, right? Do we need all of them? Do we have applications that are only used for a handful of people, and can we transfer them? With that, you've got license fees, you've got cybersecurity expense, you have people who maintain those systems.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

It's things like that, where you're just standing back and looking at all those corporate functions, the service levels we're offering, and determine is there a way to do it leaner and more efficiently using technology. As you would expect, when you look every few years at those things, opportunities arise.

[Sophie Karp, Managing Director at KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc.]

Amazing. Thank you so much for this call. Very helpful.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

Thank you.

[Brian Savoy, EVP and CFO at Duke Energy]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you. We have our next question from the line of Michael Lapides of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead when you're ready.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

Hi, Michael.

[Michael Lapides, Senior Equity Analyst at Goldman Sachs]

Hey, Lynn. Thank you for taking my questions, and Brian.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

Sure

[Michael Lapides, Senior Equity Analyst at Goldman Sachs]

I think this is your first earnings call, leading as CFO. Congrats. I may be wrong. I may be getting C&I on that one.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

No, it is.

[Brian Savoy, EVP and CFO at Duke Energy]

This is Michael. Thank you.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

No, everybody remembers their first call, Michael. It's true.

[Michael Lapides, Senior Equity Analyst at Goldman Sachs]

I can imagine. They should give out trophies or something like that. I'm sure they might figure that out. Hey, a couple of questions. One, can you remind me one short term a little bit, Lynn, one's long term. Can you remind me the cadence and schedule for filing both the North and South Carolina at Duke Energy Carolinas? That's question one. Question two is kind of thinking much longer term, which is many of the stakeholders in North Carolina in the Carbon Plan have expressed support for offshore wind. Yet, if you look at the companies developing offshore wind in the U.S., you've got one company on the East Coast that's trying to back out of its PPAs, the signed contracts, that they signed less than a year and a half ago.

[Michael Lapides, Senior Equity Analyst at Goldman Sachs]

You've got a large European operator and developer of U.S.-based offshore wind who in its earnings call this week said that returns and the progress of developing and installing offshore wind is facing headwinds. Can you just kinda talk about your views of some of the, I don't know, I'll call offshore wind still a bit of an emerging technology, but just kinda how you're thinking about the risk-reward for Duke relative to doing something as significant as that?

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

Yeah, Michael, thank you. Let me, I'll do first rate cases. Duke Energy Carolinas, North Carolina, will be filed in early 2023. You may recall that the sequence of these things, you host a technical conference to talk about the CapEx and the multi-year rate plan. That occurred this week or last week, recently.

[Michael Lapides, Senior Equity Analyst at Goldman Sachs]

Mm-hmm.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

The rate case will follow. We have not yet announced timing or plans for a DEC case in South Carolina, more to come on that, and we'll keep you updated along the way. You know, offshore wind is something that we believe is an option over this 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050 period here in the Carolinas. It represents diversity of supply. It is a renewable resource. As I say all of that, we also recognize it's expensive. It has transmission requirements, particularly here in the Carolinas, where you've got to get the power to the load centers that are, you know, further west than the coast.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

The approach that we're taking is one of studying and learning more and also allowing the commission and stakeholders and the communities that could be impacted by, you know, both the offshore and the onshore transmission to be involved as well. We will not move first, and we will not move outside of the regulated business. The risk-reward for investors and customers has to be appropriate in order for us to move forward. I would say we're in an evaluation mode. We think it's an important resource. We think it is important over this, you know, clean energy transition, but we're being deliberate and thoughtful and cautious as we move into it.

[Michael Lapides, Senior Equity Analyst at Goldman Sachs]

Got it. Then last question, just on energy reliability. Just curious how you're thinking about the near term, meaning next three to five years for your coal generation fleet, given the uptick in demands that you and some of your peers in the Southeast are seeing, as well as in the Midwest, and just some of the details, like in the Midwest ISO and elsewhere, that the grid operators and others have put out concerned about near-term reliability constraints.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

Michael, it's a really good question. What I would say to you is, as we contemplated the various scenarios we presented in the Carbon Plan, as we contemplated the Integrated Resource Plan in Indiana, and in fact, we're updating that Integrated Resource Plan in Indiana to include the new planning assumptions that MISO requires, consistent with those reliability concerns. We will not present a plan that does not maintain reliability, and we will not retire assets that are needed to maintain reliability. That's something that is being closely monitored. Our regulators completely understand and support that. I think we just have to work our way through it, making sure that we have replacement generation, transmission ready to go, you know, the combination of resources ready to go so that when we retire, our customers can expect reliability.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

That is our commitment, and that's the way we're planning and executing these transition plans.

[Michael Lapides, Senior Equity Analyst at Goldman Sachs]

Got it. Thank you, Lynn. Much appreciated.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

All right. Thank you, Michael.

[Operator]

Thank you. I would now like to hand it back to Lynn for some final remarks.

[Lynn Good, chair and chief executive at Duke Energy]

Brica, thank you, and thanks to everyone who joined. We will see you in a week. I'm pretty confident we'll get to do this again in small rooms at EEI, so we'll look forward to seeing you then. Thanks again for your interest, your questions, and look forward to seeing you soon.

[Operator]

Thank you. That does conclude today's conference call. Thank you all again for joining. You may now disconnect your line.

Participants

Executives

• Brian Savoy, EVP and CFO
• Jack Sullivan, VP of Investor Relations
• Lynn Good, chair and chief executive

Analysts

• David Arcaro, Executive Director at Morgan Stanley
• Durgesh Chopra, Managing Director at Evercore ISI
• Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Research Analyst at Bank of America
• Michael Lapides, Senior Equity Analyst at Goldman Sachs
• Nicholas Campanella, Senior Equity Research Analyst at Credit Suisse
• Shar Pourreza, Director and Head Supervisory Analyst at Guggenheim Partners
• Sophie Karp, Managing Director at KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc.
• Steve Fleishman, Managing Director and Senior Analyst at Wolfe Research