Viatris Q3 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
November 7, 2022

There are 14 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning. My name is Gretchen, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Viatris 2022 Third Quarter Earnings Call and Webcast. Beatrice. Thank you.

Operator

I will now turn the call over to Bill Chabusky, Head of Global Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Good morning, everyone. Conference call. During today's call, we will be making forward looking statements on a number of matters, including our financial guidance for 2022, various strategic initiatives and our Phase 1 and Phase 2 outlooks. These forward looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause future results or events to differ materially from today's projections. Forward looking statements, including certain assumptions and risks related to the Phase 1 and Phase 2 outlooks.

Speaker 1

We will be referring to certain actual and projected non GAAP financial Viatrix to supplement investors' understanding and assessment of our financial performance. Reconciliations of those non GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found on our website in the appendix of today's slide presentations. A copy of today's presentation and other earnings materials will be available on our website at investor. Vitris.com following this call. Now I would like to turn it over to our Executive Chairman, Robert Kory.

Speaker 2

Good morning. Almost 2 years ago today, we brought together 2 great complementary organizations to form a new company, Beatrice, with the purpose of creating a sustainable global healthcare leader. Under the leadership of our Board of Directors along with management, We laid out a very clear and deliberate strategy to build a highly diversified company with multiple capabilities spanning numerous Geographies and Therapeutic Areas. At that time, we established a 2 phase roadmap that detailed and emphasized Our strategic priorities to deliver value to our shareholders. Phase 1 has always been designed as our setup phase for Beatrice.

Speaker 2

Up until now, we have been laser focused on executing on Phase 1, consisting of the years 2021 through 20 23. In doing so, our priorities have been clear: integrate the 2 organizations generate $1,000,000,000 in cost synergies deleveraged the balance sheet, paid down at least $6,500,000,000 in debt, reduced our gross leverage to our long term target ratio of 3x And maintain our investment grade rating, all while returning capital to our shareholders. Today, here's where we stand. 1st, We continue to execute on our integration plans and are well on track to capturing at least $1,000,000,000 of cost synergies by the end of Phase 1. 2nd, We continue to exercise our financial discipline and intend to keep our investment grade rating.

Speaker 2

3rd, We paid down $4,200,000,000 in debt since the beginning of 2021 and are on track to paying down at least $6,500,000,000 by the end of Phase 1. And lastly, we returned capital to shareholders beginning in 2021 with our inaugural dividend, Growing the dividend by 9% in 2022, given our strong cash flow generation and plan to add to such return through the execution of our share repurchase plan. All of this, while delivering on the 7th straight quarter of strong operating results despite many industry headwinds, including inflationary pressures and a negative impact that we estimate to be approximately $1,300,000,000 year over year for 2022 to the top line as a result of the material effects of Adverse foreign exchange movements. We anticipate that Beatrice's 2nd full year results will only further demonstrate the strength and robustness of our business. This past February, we announced a strategically important transaction with on our 1st year of operations as well as announce after careful analysis the economics and proceeds But first, while we will remain therapeutic agnostic overall, we announced this morning 2 acquisitions consistent with 1 of our previously announced therapeutic areas of emphasis, ophthalmology.

Speaker 2

We anticipate the combined assets of these acquisitions to add to the top line immediately and grow in strong double digits from there, potentially reaching to at least $1,000,000,000 in sales by 20 28. $500,000,000 in adjusted EBITDA by 2028 as well. The aggregate purchase price for the acquisitions is approximately Our view is that in addition to investing in growth assets, repurchasing our shares is another one of the best uses of our cash. Therefore, we intend to increase our return of capital to shareholders not only through the continuation of our dividend, but also following the receipt Of the proceeds of the Biocon Biologics transaction, we intend to begin executing in 2023 on the $1,000,000,000 stock repurchase program authorized by our

Speaker 3

Board of Directors earlier this year.

Speaker 2

And now with almost 2 years of operations under our belt, We are even more confident in the strength of our platform and can more fully address a number of important questions that we have received from investors since our last investor update. These include: 1, further details in our planned divestitures 2, The stability of our base business post Phase 1. 3, our future capital allocation priorities and plans for Phase 2. 4, how we will return our business back to growth and lastly, confidence in our ability to ultimately execute on all actions that we have outlined to date. I will start with our announced divestitures.

Speaker 2

In February, management provided commentary with respect to our planned divestitures. We currently expect approximately $5,000,000,000 to $6,000,000,000 in pretax proceeds in addition to the proceeds expected from the sale of our biosimilars business. In order to fully address the stability and outlook of our current base business in Phase 2, 2024 and beyond, I will need to identify for you additional detail on the planned assets to be divested. It is important to note that these identified assets, Which once were core assets to us in the past based on where we were in our business lifecycle then, But have been now determined not to be core assets today based on where we are taking Viatris on a going forward basis, The non core assets that have been identified and that we intend to divest are as follows: 1, our OTC business 2, our Women's Healthcare business 3, our active pharmaceutical ingredients business, our API, but retaining some selective development API capabilities. And lastly, Certain geographical markets that were part of the combination with Upjohn's business that are smaller in nature and in which we had no infrastructure prior to or following the transaction.

Speaker 2

We expect to complete these planned divestitures by the end of 2023 and also expect the proceeds to provide additional significant financial flexibility future plans, let me provide some additional detail on the outlook of our current business in Phase 2. My comments will refer to the base business from that point going forward, but before any positive impact of the 2 acquisitions we announced this morning, Unless otherwise indicated. We believe that our base business will be well positioned to deliver 1% top line growth long term. This is supported primarily by our strong internal organic pipeline for our new product launches. We expect our strong pipeline alone to more than offset our annual base business erosion, Which we now expect to be 2% to 3% beginning in Phase 2 versus previously forecasted 4% to 5% that we modeled for Phase 1.

Speaker 2

Rajiv will provide more details later. Additionally, When including the potential financial impact of the 2 acquisitions announced this morning, which we expect will only be additive to our growth, We are targeting during Phase 2 a top line total revenue CAGR of approximately 3%, adjusted EBITDA CAGR of approximately 4% to 5%, and most importantly, an adjusted earnings per share CAGR of approximately mid teens. Note that while these CAGRs include acquisitions announced this morning, They do not take into consideration the positive impact of any future business development or M and A. These targets reflect our commitment To executing and delivering growth to our business only using the assets that we already have in house, A continuation of paying down debt and thereby decreasing net interest expenses and most importantly, returning capital to shareholders through our anticipated future share repurchases plans, which I will discuss shortly. For modeling purposes, you should consider 2 adjustments in exchange for the additional $8,000,000,000 to $9,000,000,000 of aggregate pre tax proceeds we anticipate to receive by the end of 2023 or shortly thereafter from all our divestitures, including our biosimilars business.

Speaker 2

Therefore, as we enter Phase 2 beginning in 2024, You should think about making the following adjustments where we see ourselves for 2022. First, an adjustment of $2,100,000,000 in revenues $700,000,000 in adjusted EBITDA to reflect Our 4 planned divestitures just mentioned, including our biosimilars business and 2, An adjustment of approximately $300,000,000 in increased R and D expenses, partly due to the impact of the recent SEC guidelines for licensing deals that were previously excluded from adjusted EBITDA, but will be included in the future. Also in that number are some continuing development expenses for the 2 acquisitions announced this morning, which will drive our continued long term growth. Although we are not given any official guidance today beyond 2022, these adjustments have taken into consideration The remaining actions that need to be taken on our divestitures as well as other expected pushes and pulls in 2023 as we reshape and rebase Beatrice. Now turning to our future capital allocation priorities.

Speaker 2

For Phase 2 beginning in 2024, we expect the reshaped and rebased Beatrice to generate at least $2,300,000,000 of free cash flows per year, excluding transaction costs and taxes, of which we intend to earmark 50% annually to be returned to shareholders in the form of dividends and future share repurchases. With the remaining approximately 50%, we do intend to identify and be able to reinvest further into our business organically and inorganically with value creating, financially accretive, bolt on transactions and other potential transactions that fit the mold of what we announced this morning. We are excited as we begin to approach the end of Phase 1 and and Enter Phase 2 of our strategic plan. After reporting on 7 straight strong quarters, we are hopeful that the market will increasingly begin to recognize the value of our strong balance sheet, our ability to generate strong cash flows, Our ability to return capital to shareholders through our dividend and especially now with our commitment to future share repurchase plans given the tremendous undervaluation in our security shown by our current PE multiple. Now in terms of adding to the growth of our base business, when we laid out our strategic vision At our February investor event, we discussed business development in the areas of ophthalmology, GI, dermatology as an important complementary vehicle to drive inorganic growth for our company.

Speaker 2

As Michael and Rajiv will elaborate later, We believe that the acquisitions of Oyster Point and Family Life Sciences are excellent examples that will establish for Beatrice a strong foundation for a leading ophthalmology franchise. We expect these acquisitions over time to be substantially additive to both our top line and bottom line. And on a standalone basis, when combined with our commitment to begin repurchasing our shares, we expect these acquisitions to be adjusted earnings per share accretive in 2023. I would like to personally welcome Doctor. Jeffrey Now, CEO of Oyster Point Pharma, who upon closing will be the newest member of Beatrice's management team And who will be introducing himself and speaking to you shortly.

Speaker 2

Doctor. Nao will be leading our new ophthalmology franchise at Beatrice along with his talented and seasoned management team. We have been keenly impressed by Jeff and his team's accomplishments and especially Jeff's leadership and vision. We are confident that their talent and expertise will be a great asset to Beatrice following the closing of the acquisition of Oyster Point Pharma and the complementary acquisition of Family Life Sciences. In terms of the confidence in our ability to execute on all the actions that we have just detailed, When you consider the tremendous operational and financial progress that we have made over the past 2 years despite a challenging external backdrop, on all facets of our plan and delivering the consistent results that we have.

Speaker 2

Another notable achievement and our continuing successful integration as having been able to exit substantially all the transition services with Pfizer last month. And for all of this, the Board of Directors would like to thank the senior management team and all of our approximately 37,000 employees around the globe for their unwavering commitment, dedication and performance, especially towards some of the toughest years in this industry, Including taking on the global fight against COVID. Before I conclude my prepared remarks, I would like to provide to the broader investment community a few items from our perspective that might be self evident, but underappreciated. 1, how truly differentiated our company is amongst many of our peers. I believe that that sometimes gets lost on the investment community that we are no longer just the U.

Speaker 2

S. Generics and specialty pharmaceutical company that is materially exposed to all the volatility and the level of erosion that exists in the U. S. Market. In fact, only $1,800,000,000 out of an estimated $15,500,000,000 of our estimated sales in 2022 will represent the total sales of our generics in the U.

Speaker 2

S. We have deliberately taken steps to minimize such exposure by derisking our business model in the United States Through geographical expansion and also by moving up the value chain with more highly complex products launched in the United company with an investment grade credit rating amongst our peers, which we believe is significant and meaningful, especially in today's environment. 3, With one of the strongest balance sheets amongst our peers and significant cash flows, we have significant financial flexibility, and 4, we have one of the lowest gross leverage ratios amongst our peers. 5, we will be returning a quantum capital to shareholders through what we believe is an attractive dividend and soon through share repurchases. 6.

Speaker 2

The Board will continue to look at opportunities to add or even further unlock Investment community to participate in what we expect to soon be a strong adjusted earnings per share growth story. Simply put, once our business is rebased, we feel very confident in our future prospects for where we believe We will be able to deliver top line growth, adjusted EBITDA growth and adjusted earnings per share growth. And with Our significant cash flow generation, we expect to be able to return capital to shareholders through dividends and especially through share repurchases. With that and before I turn the call over to Michael, Rajeev and Sanjeev, I would like to note that following the call today, we will be commencing our annual shareholder outreach program. So please look forward to hearing from us in the coming weeks.

Speaker 2

Thank you. And especially thank you for your interest in Beatrice. And look forward to answering your questions during our Q and A period. I will now turn the call over to Michael.

Speaker 4

Thank you, Robert. Now following your detailed outline, let me go directly to today's acquisition announcement and a high level overview of our Q3 results. In February, we announced 3 therapeutic areas of focus for moving up the value chain with NCEs and 505(2)s and then included ophthalmology. We believe that the 2 ophthalmology acquisitions, Which we're announcing today, Oyster Point Pharma and Semi Life Sciences give us a significant head start in creating an ophthalmology franchise within the company that will set a strong foundation for what we expect to be a future ophthalmology leader and in accelerating our strategy to move up the value chain. The total cash consideration for both acquisitions, including equity and debt, will be between $700,000,000 $750,000,000 I'm excited about the assets, the talent, the expertise and the capabilities which we are bringing into the company with these acquisitions.

Speaker 4

Oyster Point will provide us with an exciting commercial stage growth ViaRIS Tia ViaR, the 1st and only FDA approved nasal spray for signs and symptoms of dry eye disease with a unique and novel mechanism of action, activating the trigeminal parasympathetic pathway to increase the production of the patient's own natural tear film. Tervaya was launched in November 2021 and patients and physicians' feedback is very encouraging.

Speaker 2

Dry eye disease is an

Speaker 4

area of major unmet medical needs affecting approximately 70,000,000 patients in the U. S. Alone, and we're excited to bring an important innovation like Tavia to more patients and more countries consistent with our mission to empower patients Worldwide to live healthy at every stage of life regardless of geography or circumstances. Clinical development is also ongoing to expand TAVAYA into further indications such as neurotrophic keratopathy. In addition to that, the Family Life Sciences acquisition will add 5 additional Phase 3 or Phase 3 ready front of the eye programs in various indications.

Speaker 4

We believe TAVAYA and these front of the eye ophthalmology assets could potentially have combined annual revenue of at least $1,000,000,000 by 20.28. Together with our own capabilities, we believe we'll have everything we need to set the foundation to become the next global ophthalmology leader. The entire management team and I look forward to working with Doctor. Jeffrey now who will be leading this and its talented team as we build the leadership position of Thermology and as we execute to make this area one of several $1,000,000,000 Growth Drivers for Beatrice. As you can see and consistent with our strategy, which we announced in February, We continue to make important strides to reshape Beatrice and we believe we have a clear defined path to return our company to top and bottom line growth for 2024 and beyond and to have the necessary financial flexibility to return significant capital to our shareholders as well as to continued business development.

Speaker 4

And this all would not be possible without the solid performance in our current business and focused execution of our integration and reshaping plans. We now have a track record of 7 quarters of consistent and strong business performance. And And for the Q3 of 2022, we delivered total revenue of US4.08 billion dollars adjusted EBITDA of $1,500,000,000 and free cash flow of $765,000,000 Our teams across the world are highly engaged and are performing at peak levels. Our pipeline continues to deliver, especially in the area of complexion areas and injectables. We added $144,000,000 and new product revenue in the quarter 3.

Speaker 4

The year to date performance is operationally in line or better than our own expectations and we believe enables us to continue to deliver on our Phase 1 financial commitments. Notably, we have paid down approximately $2,100,000,000 in debt year to date in 2022 and approximately $4,200,000,000 since the beginning of 2021, pushing us squarely on track for our target to pay down US6.5 billion dollars by the end of 2023. Our Board of Directors has declared another quarterly dividend of $0.12 per share. Cumulatively, since the formation of Beatrice, We've already returned more than $800,000,000 to shareholders through dividend payments. We are reaffirming and in spite of further increased foreign exchange headwinds.

Speaker 4

As Robert has already clearly indicated, we are confident and the outlook and future growth potential of Beatrice. The key tenets for their confidence are the strength and market dynamics of our remaining base business after the main divestitures. Our base business is stabilizing as a result of business transformation and portfolio choices we have made in the past years as well as solid performance of our branded portfolio. The strength of our pipeline, especially with complex generics and complex injectables, as well as novel products 505P2s and NCEs and the expectation of our growing ophthalmology franchise upon completion of the acquisitions. With that, I would like now to hand it over to Rajeev to give further details on the Q3 performance and the outlook of our business going forward.

Speaker 4

Rajeev?

Speaker 5

Thanks, Michael, and good morning, everyone. I'm very proud of what we have accomplished in our last 2 years as Beatrice. We have executed 7 consecutive quarters of strong performance, underscoring the underlying strength of our diversified base business. Let me begin with brief commentary about our strong third quarter operational results. On an operational basis, we were down 1% year over year for the quarter.

Speaker 5

Every segment performed solidly versus our expectations, including China despite COVID headwinds. Our generic segment in developed markets benefited from the launch of lenalidomide in North America. Overall, Our brands grew 1% year over year on an operational basis in the quarter and performed better than expected led by Lipitor, Brufen and Creon. Our resilient global operations once again delivered excellent customer service levels while we weather increasing headwinds from inflation. Moving to integration, we For the full year 2022, we now expect to deliver approximately $525,000,000 in new product launch revenue with better than expected margins, but below our expectations due to the timing of certain launches.

Speaker 5

And on the R and D front. We crossed a major milestone with the announcement of positive top line results from our GATIPO Phase 3 clinical trials along with Viatrix. We remain on track for submission to FDA in quarter 1, 'twenty three. Now turning to the next slide, I want to remind you of our operational priorities for Phase 1. We are well on our way to integrate and synergize, Stabilizer base business and deliver the pipeline.

Speaker 5

In addition, we are on track to complete the planned divestitures by the end of 'twenty three. We believe these achievements position Beatrice well for the future growth. Flipping to the next slide. As we look ahead to Phase 2, our priorities are to continue to optimize and minimize total base business erosion, further enhance our existing durable higher margin organic pipeline to offset base erosion, maximize the execution of our ophthalmic franchise and identify and add inorganic opportunities to further accelerate the growth. Now on the next slide, I'll walk you through Some details behind what is driving our total base erosion improvements.

Speaker 5

Recall, We originally modeled our total base erosion in Phase 1 to be about 4% to 5%. Based on our better With unexpected brand performance and combined with other key catalysts, we believe the total erosion for Phase 2 is expected to improve by 200 basis points, getting us to the 2% to 3% of total erosion range. Turning to the next slide, our brands business excluding China will make up slightly more than 50% of the portfolio. Prior to formation of Beatrice, our combined brands were trending at approximately 6% erosion. At the launch of Beatrice, we modeled approximately 4.5 to 5.5 grand erosion based on that trend.

Speaker 5

But as a result of our ability to effectively manage the brand business, we have been able to contain this erosion to 1.5% to 2.5% over the last 7 quarters. The line graph on the right Depicting our total brand sales excluding China from 2017 to this quarter is an insightful visual. Our business operating model completely changed and stabilized the trajectory of our expected erosion And we expect this improvement to continue in Phase 2, which will potentially contribute an uplift of 150 basis points to our total base erosion. The next slide lists some other key contributors to our total erosion improvement and stabilization These include no additional significant LOEs on the horizon, our purposeful diversification of our core generics portfolio, which is now repositioned towards complex products. Our decreased dependency on the commoditized U.

Speaker 5

S. Generics market, today. The total U. S. Generics portfolio contributes approximately 11% of total net sales and the anticipated divestitures of certain non core assets, which once completed will not only help simplify the company, but will also help to further stabilize the remaining business.

Speaker 5

We believe that our ability to minimize the total base erosion when combined with our current organic pipeline lays a solid foundation for us to return to growth in Phase 2, It consists of an increasing number of complex, hard to make products with a higher barrier to entry as well as fewer number of partner program. In addition to this, some other key geographies like China, Europe and the rest of the world markets will also benefit from the efforts of the last few years because of the dedicated and focused programs to build their pipeline. We expect Europe to have $100,000,000 to $150,000,000 of new product revenue every year and China to get the benefit of close to $100,000,000 every year from 2025 onwards. As Robert said, We have certain underappreciated assets in our pipeline that we have invested in during the recent past. We anticipate our complex injectables and select novel products to each make up at least $1,000,000,000 in peak annual net sales in Phase 2.

Speaker 5

Given all of these pieces, we feel confident to deliver $450,000,000 to $550,000,000 of Annual New Product Revenue. On the next two slides, I'll share more about our complex injectables. Our science team has successfully developed several technology platforms, including but not limited to Nanoparticles, Microspheres, lysosomes and nanoemulsions. We expect these platforms to deliver a strong portfolio of approximately 40 products, 10 of which are already filed and under review with FDA. This portfolio represents a rapidly growing $50,000,000,000 to $60,000,000,000 growing market.

Speaker 5

Perhaps a generic Copaxone analog as a reference is the closest to help model these products. I would like to highlight the pipeline chart on the next slide. Of the 10 products which are already under review with FDA, we are confident that we will be the 1st to market with 7 generics including Abili-five MNTENA, Envecatrinza and Sandostatin LAR. On a risk adjusted basis, We believe this complex injectables franchise represents at least a $1,000,000,000 peak net sale opportunity in Phase 2. Turning to the next slide.

Speaker 5

Another growth catalyst of our organic pipeline is our novel products franchise with several 505(2)s. We expect products like GA once monthly and our novel meloxicam formulation will have patent protection. Additional novel products on the slide include Zulen low dose and Effrexor GAD. This chart also highlights our continued pursuit of highly complex products like the biosimilar to Botox. On a risk adjusted basis, we believe these 5 select assets alone represent at least $1,000,000,000 peak net sales opportunity in Phase 2.

Speaker 5

Now let me move on to the great news we announced today. We have taken a major step to create an ophthalmic franchise. I want to echo the excitement you heard from Robert and Michael about the future addition of Oyster Point and Family Life Sciences to the Beatrice family. Let me walk you through the strategic rationale for bringing these foundational assets together. Oyster Point brings to Beatrice not only a novel market dry eye product in U.

Speaker 5

S, but more importantly a very experienced team that possesses deep knowledge of the ophthalmic space from a clinical, medical, regulatory and commercial perspective. Further, When combining Oyster Point with Family Life Sciences pipeline and our global commercial footprint, R and D and Regulatory Capabilities. We believe that we are setting the foundation to become the next global ophthalmic leader. Moving to the next slide, I'm more excited that in addition to Trevya, we are getting to start with a combined pipeline of site in complementary programs, which include additional indications like neurotrophic keratopathy and 5 Phase 3 ready programs we are acquiring from Family Life Sciences. This combined global pipeline has a potential of net sales of more than $1,000,000,000 on a risk adjusted basis by 2028.

Speaker 5

As we close this transaction, the ophthalmic franchise will function as a separate division within the company and will be led by Doctor. Jeff Nao. In summary, as I walked you through this morning, we believe we are well positioned to bring Beatrice back to growth in Phase 2. We remain confident in our ability to contain erosion to 2% to 3% and generate $450,000,000 to $550,000,000 in new product revenue annually, which we expect will not only offset the erosion, but enable us to generate a 1% organic top line cargo growth of the base in Phase 2, Maximizing and executing our ophthalmic strategy will help us reach a total revenue CAGR of approximately 3% from 24% to 28%. Further, it's worth noting that this growth does not include Any additional inorganic opportunities, which we expect to identify and add to our portfolio in Phase 2.

Speaker 6

With that,

Speaker 5

I would like to welcome Doctor. Jeff Ngau to the call to share some more information about Oyster Point and his exciting growth driver as well as his perspectives on the family assets. But before I do, I would like to thank our Beatrice Police for their continued performance and look forward to welcoming our future colleagues from Oyster Point and Family Life Sciences who are listening today.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Rajeev, and thank you to Beatrice for allowing Beatrice. Good morning. My name is Jeff Nao, and I am the President and CEO of Oyster Point Pharma, a public biopharmaceutical company focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of 1st in class pharmaceutical therapies to treat ophthalmic diseases. Our mission at Oyster Point is to advance truly breakthrough science to deliver therapies that patients and eye care professionals need. I was the first employee at Oyster Point in 2017.

Speaker 3

And since then, we have grown the company to more than 250 employees, training. I hold a master's in medical science and a PhD in public health and epidemiology. And for over 20 years, I have dedicated my career exclusively to drug and device development in the field of ophthalmology. Prior to joining Oyster Point Pharma, I was involved in the development of a number of promising therapies in the retina space, including wallet Genentech, where I was part of the FDA approval and commercialization of numerous indications for the anti digest therapy Lucentis, a medical breakthrough for treating blindness, which generated multi $1,000,000,000 peak annual sales. The Oyster Point team brings decades of experience in the eye care space with most of the leadership team dedicating their entire careers to eye care.

Speaker 3

Program. Currently, we are 1 year into the successful launch of our first FDA approved product. GYERVIA is the 1st and only nasal spray for the treatment of the signs and symptoms of dry eye disease. Dry eye disease is a large market affecting an estimated 38 1000000 Americans and over 700,000,000 people worldwide. It's a chronic multifactorial disease, Which is characterized by an imbalance to the nutrient rich layers of the ocular surface known as the tear film.

Speaker 3

Increasing the production of natural tear Many patients reported being dissatisfied with older treatments in the class due to lack of efficacy, slow onset of action and the stinging and burning associated with prescription eye drops. The team at Oyster Point broke new ground with Tervaya. Trevy's differentiated clinical profile rapidly bioactivates tear film production to help the body create more natural tears and can be easily administered. It's a preservative free nasal spray that's convenient with a twice a day dosing regimen with no contraindications. Tervaya's unique mode of action involves activating the trigeminal parasympathetic pathway in the nose, which is believed to trigger tear film production.

Speaker 3

Tear bio was studied in a broad population of adults with mild, moderate and severe dry eye disease. In clinical trials patients achieved statistically significant improvement in tear film production and other key dry eye measurements. In addition to this exciting product, let me share details on what Oyster Point will add from a pipeline perspective. In our development pipeline, we have several programs aimed at treating other ophthalmic disease with unmet needs, including stage 1 neurotrophic keratopathy, a severe degenerative condition affecting the nerves of the cornea. Separately, Our proprietary transformational gene therapy program is currently progressing toward IND enabling studies in 2023 for stages 2 and 3 neurotrophic keratopathy, and we have begun early development for a therapy to treat vernal and atopic keratoconjunctivitis, Severe allergic conditions of the eye.

Speaker 3

Oyster Point originally engaged with Beatrice on ex U. S. Licensing and partnering release for our products. As discussions progressed, we quickly realized that the global healthcare gateway that Beatrice has built provides a unique partnership opportunity to accelerate and amplify Viatris and Oyster Point's growth strategies And would enable increased access to ophthalmic therapies for patients worldwide. Just as Oyster Point could propel Viatris' vitris.

Speaker 3

Through its infrastructure and deep knowledge of the space from a clinical, medical, regulatory and commercial perspective, Jiravaya and pipeline assets. Viatris could propel Oyster Point with its global commercial footprint, R and D and Regulatory capabilities, supply chain, as well as the multiple additional ophthalmic assets. Conceptually, This is not a 1 +1equals2 edition of companies, but potentially more like a 1 +1equals4 edition. The sum of the merger amplifies itself based on the synergies that both companies would provide to each other. Oyster Point As the foundation of the ophthalmology franchise of Beatrice, we'll bring a team with deep expertise in ophthalmology to advance Research and Drug Development as well as an experienced U.

Speaker 3

S. Commercial sales and medical affairs infrastructure that I am Viatrix. The ophthalmology and optometry communities deserve partners who are committed to investing in and bringing new therapies to market for patients and eye care professionals. On joining Beatrice as its new ophthalmology franchise, We will be committed to being that market leader and addressing the industry's unmet needs. As Rajeev previously stated, The ophthalmology portfolio that has been created to date is expected to have significant peak potential by 2,030.

Speaker 3

What we have outlined here today is simply the foundation of what is expected over the next few years. Our focus will be to invest in the resources behind the continued launch and international expansion of TIRVIA as well as the clinical development of multiple key assets ranging across a full spectrum of eye care disease areas, In closing and on a personal note, I would like to thank the Oyster Point team for building such a strong organization over the last 5 We have built capabilities in R and D, clinical development and commercial within the eye care space in such a short period of time.

Speaker 2

It is the value

Speaker 3

of our people, our lead asset to Avaya and our pipeline that compelled Beatrice to decide to bring our company into their organization. I would like to thank Robert, Michael, Rajeev and our future colleagues at Beatrice for the opportunity to join the Beatrice family and to say that I also share in the excitement surrounding the future of Beatrice.

Speaker 7

Thank you, Jeff, and good morning, everyone. It's great to be with you today to share my thoughts on the recent quarter and expand upon what you've heard from Robert, Michael and Rajeev on the outlook of our company. Please turn to the slide with our Q3 financial highlights and the outlook for Q4 and full year 2022. We had another strong quarter operationally that was in line with our expectation. On a reported basis, revenue was impacted by foreign exchange headwinds by approximately 9% versus Q3 2021.

Speaker 7

Let me walk you through the key drivers that contributed to the strong performance in 3rd quarter. For revenue, we saw continued stability in our segments, including developed markets and China. New product revenue in the quarter benefited from the launch of lenalidomide in the U. S. This performance contributed to an overall favorable mix resulting in better gross margin.

Speaker 7

With respect to SG and A, we continue to benefit from synergies. R and D increased due to continued investment in the pipeline. We had another strong quarter of free cash flow generation. This underscores our confidence in the stability of our base business and the organizational effort around cash optimization initiatives. On a year to date basis, we have met 2020 commitments and have paid down $2,100,000,000 in debt and have also paid out approximately $436,000,000 in dividends.

Speaker 7

With 3 quarters of solid performance under our belt, we feel good about the rest of the year and expect the positive momentum to continue. Now a few comments on the expected Q4 financial results. We anticipate that gross margin percentage will moderate from 3rd quarter levels due to product and segment mix. SG and A similar to last year is expected to step up from Q3 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be significantly lower compared to Q3 2022 due to anticipated lower adjusted EBITDA, Phasing of Interest Payments and Higher CapEx.

Speaker 7

Given the continued strength from operations, we expect to absorb incremental impact for foreign exchange. We are reaffirming our guidance across total revenues, adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow. As previously mentioned on our Q2 call, it is likely we will come in at the lower end of the adjusted EBITDA range due to foreign exchange. And For free cash flow, it is likely we will end up at the midpoint of the range fully absorbing the foreign exchange headwind. The next slide is an illustration of free cash flow over the last 7 quarters.

Speaker 7

Q3 was another strong quarter, especially considering it included EpiPen settlement for approximately $259,000,000 Taking this into account, the underlying free cash flow would have exceeded Q3 2021. This is another indication of stability we see in our business. I'm very pleased with the progress we're making in improving cash conversion. This is a focus we expect to continue in 2023 and beyond. As mentioned, we expect the Biocon transaction to close shortly and we expect to update you at that time with the associated impact on the current guidance.

Speaker 7

The next slide is an illustration of our sources and usage of divestiture proceeds. A key takeaway, we expect significant amount of cash over next year or so. On the left, we anticipate total estimated pre tax proceeds of approximately $8,000,000,000 to $9,000,000,000 This includes approximately $5,000,000,000 to $6,000,000,000 of pretax proceeds from the divestitures of identified non core assets. Since our Investor Day in February, we have made significant progress on these initiatives and have updated our ranges based on latest discussion with our advisors. We expect to cover all taxes and transaction costs with the divestiture proceeds.

Speaker 7

It is important to note that the proceeds from these divestitures will not be reported in the U. S. GAAP net cash provided by operating activities. However, The taxes and transactions costs will be reported in our future U. S.

Speaker 7

GAAP net cash provided by operating activity and therefore will impact reported free cash flow. As these costs are incurred, they will be appropriately disclosed in order to better model the underlying best business free cash flow. Totaling the estimated uses, including the cash to acquire ophthalmology franchise, we expect net divestiture proceeds of approximately $4,900,000,000 to $6,100,000,000 We intend to allocate this significant financial flexibility towards incremental debt pay down, share buyback and potential future business development. Turning to next slide, which highlights a few key points on the acquisition we announced earlier today. We're excited about the acquisition of Oyster Point Pharma.

Speaker 7

The transaction will consist of $11 per share in cash upfront through a tender offer. In addition to upfront cash consideration, Each Oyster Point stockholder will receive 1 non tradable contingent value write representing up to additional $2 per share contingent on Oyster achieving certain metrics based on full year 2022 performance. Concurrent to Oster Point closing, We also expect to acquire Family Life Sciences, which has a complementary ophthalmology portfolio for a total cash payout of approximately $281,000,000 Both transactions are subject to customary closing conditions. We expect these transactions will be funded with cash on hand. Now moving to next slide which captures all the components of capital allocation framework.

Speaker 7

Taking into account the net divestiture proceeds and the significant free cash flow from our base business, we have the confidence We will not only able to deliver on our Phase 1 commitment, but also be able to increase our return of capital to shareholders in Phase 2. To recap our Phase 1 commitment, our highest priority in this phase has been debt pay down and leverage reduction. There are 2 components of this commitment, pay down $6,500,000 of debt, which represents the short term and scheduled maturities between 'twenty one and 'twenty three and Pay down additional debt to reduce our pro form a gross leverage ratio to 3 times by the end of 2023. This priority fully supports our commitment to maintaining our investment grade rating. The outcome is a financial profile that we believe differentiates from our peer and has afforded us an attractive capital structure in these volatile times.

Speaker 7

Another part of Phase 1 commitment was returning capital through our dividend, which we initiated in 2021 and increased in 2022. As we mentioned, the net divestiture proceeds and the underlying free cash flow gives us the necessary flexibility to begin executing on the authorized share buyback in 2023. The expected completion of these Phase 1 commitments, especially meeting our gross leverage target of 3 times by the end of 2023 will enable us to rebalance our capital allocation plan for 2024 and beyond. As you heard in Robert's opening remarks, We expect to take a more balanced approach

Speaker 2

with

Speaker 7

a focus on capital return and business investment during Phase 2. This is a result of an expectation of significant free cash flow growth during this phase. We will remain committed to our investment grade rating and will target gross leverage at 3 times with a range of 2.8 to 3.2 times. We expect there will be significant cash available for capital return. We anticipate allocating approximately 50% of annual free cash flow to share buyback and the dividend.

Speaker 7

The organic adjusted earnings growth expected during this phase and the reduction in annual share count is expected to accelerate our adjusted EPS growth. With respect to investing in our business organically and inorganically and taking into account the importance of our investment grade rating, We will continue to be financially prudent in targeting bolt ons and tuck ins. Moving to the next slide. After roughly 2 years of managing the business and the solid performance of last 7 quarters, we have high confidence on the rhythm of the business, The outlook the investment needs to drive future growth. Therefore, we are in a position to provide long term targets for total revenue, adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow and adjusted EPS.

Speaker 7

As Robert noted in his comments, These targets exclude the associated revenue of approximately $2,100,000,000 and adjusted EBITDA of approximately $700,000,000 from the divestiture of biosimilar non core assets and $300,000,000 of increased R and D. Key assumption to support these targets including base business erosion of approximately 2% to 3% being fully offset by new product revenue from our pipeline. The The return to growth will also be supported by the ophthalmology franchise. The anticipated 3% total revenue Now a few assumptions supporting the growth of adjusted EBITDA. With the evolution of our portfolio moving up the value chain and the focus on more novel and branded products, we anticipate relatively stable gross margin during this period.

Speaker 7

We anticipate SG and A investment on a total basis to be stable, but to decline on a percentage basis as revenues grow during this period. R and D investment will include the novel and complex pipeline as outlined by Rajeev and the ophthalmology asset. It will also include the impact of recent SEC guidelines for licensing deals that were previously excluded from adjusted earnings but will be included in future. Free cash flow growth is expected to be significant and will benefit from reduced interest expenses, reduced one time cash cost and future. Finally, we expect adjusted EPS growth to be enhanced by annual share repurchases, which we believe will be an important part of our focus on capital return to shareholders.

Speaker 7

These assumptions based on July 2022 Foreign exchange rates do not assume any benefit if foreign exchange rate return to historical averages. In conclusion, I'm really pleased with how the business is performing after 7 strong quarters and the actions we're taking to strengthen our foundation. The free cash flow generation along with financial flexibility from divestitures gives us confidence in achieving our Phase 1 commitments,

Operator

Beatrice. We'll take our first question from Elliot Wilbur from Raymond James.

Speaker 8

Thanks. Good morning. A lot to digest this morning. Appreciate Back to the acquisition of Oyster Point and Family Life Sciences. I I know you've talked about the ophthalmology portfolio generating around $1,000,000,000 in sales by 2028.

Speaker 8

But if I Viatris. Look at current external expectations, at least for Oyster Point, they seem to embed peak sales somewhere around $400,000,000 which I other pipeline assets, but doesn't seem like many of those would hit before 2025 or 2026. So I'm trying to close the gap there between external expectations And what you're anticipating in terms of contribution from the new broader portfolio? Are you simply more Optimistic on Trevya than external expectations or am I under appreciating the potential contribution from some of the pipeline assets in that period of time? Thanks.

Speaker 5

Okay. Elena will take and maybe later on Jeff can add. So first of all, let me just break it. One is that, yes, provides U. S.

Speaker 5

Expectations and we are talking about the global expectations. And you have to take this $1,000,000,000 divide almost 2 third is U. S. And 1 third is the rest of the world for us. That's the first one.

Speaker 5

The second one is Most and maybe every all of these products will hit within hit the market within this period of time. Because as you see, there are some Phase III assets and well advanced and it's not going to be a long clinical study over there. So we see more products launched around 26, 27 to add on along with the Trovia. So and if I have to do a by portfolio, I think our dry eye will be almost 2 third again and 1 third will be the products like blepharitis and plus biopsy and others. With that, maybe Jeff, you want to add something to that?

Speaker 5

Yes.

Speaker 3

What I would add is we're really excited about the portfolio that's been created here. And as Rajeev said, with the 2 dry eye That's making up most of the potential. I wouldn't discount the other products that are in the pipeline. They're exciting Vision Disturbance Disorders. And so we're really excited about the opportunity to go forward.

Speaker 3

And I think what's most exciting about it is you have many Phase 3 ready assets that will drop right into an existing sales force that is there and ready to go.

Speaker 9

Next question please.

Operator

Our next question comes from Umer Raffat from Evercore.

Speaker 10

EBITDA, so your midpoint of the guidance is $6,000,000,000 And Robert, I think you mentioned between divestitures, The SEC accounting as well as additional spend on new tuck ins. It sounds like there's an additional $1,000,000,000 to $1,200,000,000 worth of headwinds on EBITDA and that's without sort of the impact of China VBP rollout back on schedule next So is it fair to say that the EBITDA in 2024 is trending somewhere between $4,600,000,000 $5,000,000,000 That's question number 1. Number 2, on Oyster Point, it looks like there's either a bridge program or a major co pay assistance in place. And you can kind of see that on the realized pricing per prescription versus where Xiidra and where Restasis track. Can you speak to the Absolute bonds we're seeing and to the extent we can scale them up.

Speaker 10

And also on Oyster Point, the Phase 2 OlympiA trial in neurotrophic keratopathy, trophic keratopathy that was due right around now. There was no update of that. I'd be curious on that. And it looks like the CVR is in the bag because the TRx and the sales numbers that were pointed out, it looks like it's trending towards that anyway. So we should assume that Oyster Point acquisition is $450,000,000 valuation, correct, plus the net debt?

Speaker 2

So, let me go first. Obviously, I want to thank the entire Investment community and really all of you for your input since the management team came forth in February. Because today, we're able to deliver in much more detail, just by on the basis of answering all of your questions, quite frankly. And so the clarity that we gave you and obviously I want to be clear, we're not giving the kind of the detailed 24 actual financial guidance right now. But we've given you enough directionally a guide where I will not dispute.

Speaker 2

Let's just say some of the things that you're throwing out because I think Once again, once again, you and your numbers, you can get to people can see, you can get to where you are. I think the most important VITRIS. In my prepared remarks, I've also tried to be clear that we've taken into consideration Let me now 2023 with the rest of the initiatives that in the actions that we're going to be taking as well as the pushes and holes that we can see today in order to build that bridge for you to get to 24 to where you're at. So Jeff, you want to take his next question.

Speaker 3

Yes. Maybe I'll break it down into 2 parts and we'll answer the easier one first. So As we have earnings coming up this week, what I would say on Olympias, we are tracking according to schedule, and we'll have an update there. And then with regards to TIERBIA, I think what's really important in looking at this product is obviously first launch into the space this year. Our goal this year was really to build prescriber base.

Speaker 3

We are primarily a commercial prescription product this year. We still have Bridge on. As we enter into the fall Into 2023, we intend to pick up additional coverage. And at that point in time, we will reassess Bridge.

Speaker 2

But But

Speaker 3

I think that's also a really big opportunity for some marketing during that time. So we want to make sure that we have Good coverage on before we really pull the trigger on marketing. And as we know, this space is highly sensitive to that type of marketing. I think when you look at a product like TURVIA, There's a really unique opportunity to market the patients as it is the only nasal spray for the treatment of the signs and symptoms of dry eye disease.

Speaker 9

Next question please.

Operator

Next question is from Balaji Prasad from Barclays. Hi, this is Mikaela on for Balaji. Thank you for taking my question. Just circling back on the acquisitions, Just wondering if this will be the template for your other 2 specialties as well. And could you provide some more color on when the EPS accretion will start?

Operator

Thank you.

Speaker 2

No, I think as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, yes, we think that this It's an excellent example of a very attractive, the type of targets That we can be highly sensitive while maintaining our investment grade, while being sensitive to the The increase in R and D and while we continue to be real sensitive to To the growth to the top line. But I think most importantly in terms of an earnings per share accretion, I also try to stress given now the clarity that we've now delivered to the Street. Our capital allocation, we cannot ignore the 50% commitment once we're done with Phase 1 and hit our gross leverage target of 3 times. There is a tremendous amount of more capital we intend to return to shareholders and especially through share buybacks. So I think that the earnings accretion, the adjusted earnings per share growth It's really going to be what this story is all about on a going forward basis.

Speaker 8

Next question please. And our

Operator

next question comes from Chris Schulte from JPMorgan.

Speaker 11

Great. Thanks so much for the questions. You've laid out today why ophthalmology is the right vertical for Viatrist. But I'm just interested how you compared, I guess, this vertical Versus some of the franchises like OTC and biosimilars where the company also had an established footprint, but where the company is exiting. So I guess what led you to Kind of build up this direction and exit the others.

Speaker 11

I'm just trying to understand a little bit of kind of the thought process of kind of what's staying and what's going as you're thinking about the portfolio build. Thanks.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Chris. I mean, I would say that we made a we've done a tremendous amount of work and analysis On where we wanted to take Beatrice. We've examined all the things that have worked in the past, investments made in the past And kind of sort of where we are, where we want to take. I would say that the financial analog of our entire business model is what we're being most sensitive to. If you look at our current pipeline portfolio and if you just examine the rotation Within our own pipeline portfolio, we've been changing, moving up the value chain.

Speaker 2

We have a complete different product mix today than we did 4 or 5 years ago. And we've seen the benefit of that already. So continuing to move up the value chain And really, for example, the OTC, I'll be honest with you, is a great business. It's not a declining business. It had very low single digit growth.

Speaker 2

But in order to even keep that since we're not a consumer oriented company, there There was a tremendous amount of investment we would have to make year in and year out to support even that low digit growth. Now as we shift our attention And really have identified what we consider to be what was once a core asset, no longer to be really a core asset where we want to focus our attention going forward both in human capital and financial resources. We think that today is a very good example The opportunity to really once and for all set Beatrice on a trajectory of growth and and do it in a way where we can grow that top line, grow the EBITDA, continue to generate significant cash flows while returning a substantial amount back shareholders and especially through the share repurchases.

Operator

Your next question comes from Gary Nachman from BMO Capital Markets.

Speaker 6

Hi, good morning and thanks for all the update. So for the other non core divestitures to get to the $5,000,000,000 to $6,000,000,000 of additional proceeds, That's a lot to get through between now and the end of next year. So how far along are you with those discussions? And What's your confidence in getting that done with respect to the different areas that you outlined? Maybe you could walk through some of the opportunities in more detail.

Speaker 6

And then just a quick follow-up. Just what caused some of the launch delays causing new product revenue to be lower than expected? And when you think of the annual contribution per year, I think you said $450,000,000 to $550,000,000 Just talk about your confidence in that, How risk adjusted that number is given the importance in generating the 3% revenue CAGR in 24% to 28%. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Just in terms of the and let me you could take the second one, Rajeev. But in terms of the We actually did really have a head start. We've been working on this project for quite some time in terms of identifying these particular assets. We have all the right advisors on board for each one of these. So we are well into the process and we see no issue at all by striking in executing on each one of these in 2023 and actually expect to Even have the proceeds certainly and if not by the end of 'twenty three, the proceeds from these initiatives, But very, very shortly thereafter.

Speaker 2

Rajeev?

Speaker 5

Yes. On the that Constancia on top, As Robert mentioned about very clearly on rotation in the pipeline over the several years as we have been moving up the value chain Steady and have proven success record. Now on if you just I tried to that's why I tried to give you a little bit more granularity today about the growth Catalyst Office pipeline. I try to break it in the pocket of the sum. Let's just take examples of complex injectables, from those injectables.

Speaker 5

While 2025, 26 onwards, 2024 onwards, whether COPAXONE once a month, Botox, meloxicam, Zulane low dose, these products have a great potential just to add 1 China and rest of the world markets. And I gave a breakup of that China benefiting 25 hours about approximately $100,000,000 every year and Europe getting Viatrix. $100,000,000 to $150,000,000 every year. If you add that up $450,000,000 to $550,000,000 is a very well thought and risk adjusted range.

Operator

Your next question comes from Ash Verma from UBS.

Speaker 12

Hi. Thanks for asking For the potential divestiture candidates that you mentioned, I guess what I'm trying to understand is interest election, So, Heath, based on whether you think these are core or non core to your portfolio, have you also considered factors like how these divestments would impact You are remain co having you on the potential trajectory on the budget profile.

Speaker 2

Ash, Obviously, we would have taken all that into consideration to be able to come here and to deliver to you our outlook. So the answer is yes. We've taken all that into consideration.

Operator

Our next question comes from Jason Gerberry from Bank of America.

Speaker 6

Hey guys, good morning and thanks for taking my questions. Just on Family Care, it looks like that's probably about half The value that's kind of of this $700,000,000 to $750,000,000 So is there a specific asset that sort of drives the valuation or is it just kind of more broadly First across all the late stage ready assets. And then as you lay out what looks like a leverage for what will be effectively RemainCo. Just wondering, is that sort of what you think is the right amount of leverage for this business to carry Longer term and how ambitious you'd be sort of once the dust settles on all these transactions in terms of either more aggressively or more ambitious Building out some of these specialty brand verticals. Thanks.

Speaker 2

Let me just address. On the family assets, I'd like to make a point that we've been around these assets for the last 5 years. We've helped set up this company Originally, we have a small 13.5% stake and we've watched the development of what this company has done. So we're very, very familiar with these assets. To be able to find the right frontline asset such as Oyster with such a phenomenal leadership team, and very, very much into this community.

Speaker 2

This was not by happenstance. This was a very deliberate, well targeted opportunity that we saw to create a real ophthalmology franchise. So yes, we're very, very confident. Michael, do you want to just address some of the actual Sure.

Speaker 9

So Jason, for the family life sciences portfolio, it's really a portfolio. It's not one single asset that kind of drives the VITRIS. Just to give you a little bit more color, the nephritis asset is the asset that we talked about a few months ago already, which was basically the prim Chromolymer's. We now got Right to that. Then there is the dry eye product that we're quite excited about.

Speaker 9

It's very complementary. It has a mechanism of action VITRIS. And the other three indications, the presbyopia, the madreiasis and the NightVision, that's actually the same molecule Maybe combined with another one for all these 3 indications. So it's a very balanced portfolio.

Speaker 2

And was the second question on Let me just say that after 2 years of now operating this business, the only way you Really ever know what kind of sort of that sweet spot from a leverage ratio perspective is Actually living your business and understanding all these pushes and pulls, I would say that the range of about 2.8 to 3 2 with 3 being the midpoint is that sweet spot range where you can have that accordion where you can level up and very quickly Get right back to your target. That is I mean, we are extraordinarily disciplined and focused on that. And All activity from here will be that will be front and center, because we made some commitments to maintain investment grade. And what we now see even with that commitment to 3 times, we Actually see through the significant cash flows that we're going to be generating, once our Phase 1 commitments are satisfied side capital. And that's why I think that the transaction you we've announced this morning is a perfect example How we can continue to return significant amount more of capital back to shareholders, especially through share repurchases plans, But as well as invest in our business at the same time.

Speaker 7

Sanjeet, do you want to add anything to that? You covered that. You covered very well that we will have We've not had in Phase 1 additional cash to invest organically, inorganically, and that will support that. So that's why we are comfortable with the range that we

Operator

Our next question comes from Glenn Santangelo from Jefferies. Yes.

Speaker 2

Thanks for taking my question. I just want to follow-up on some of the pro form a numbers you gave regarding 2024 And the Phase 2 part of the plan. I mean, it seems like you're assuming that once you get out to 2024 that the erosion on The base business on the revenue line will be about minus 3%. And now with the benefit of some of these announcements today that the new growth CAGR is going to be plus 3%, that's a 6% swing or almost close to $1,000,000,000 a year. And so I just want to make sure I understand In terms of what you're saying, where that's coming from, it sounds like you in the past, you've been talking about $500,000,000 a year From new product introductions, maybe with the balance coming from the acquisitions.

Speaker 2

And then my follow-up to that would be, Does that 3% Ks in 24% to 28% include any incremental contribution from GI and Derm or could those opportunities, be augment those growth rates from here? Thanks. So thank you, Glenn, and welcome to our sector. Let me start by saying, I think You can recalibrate if you get one of the variables in everything that you mentioned And that is the base business from 2024 and going on, we no longer See it eroding. Actually, we see a and that's why this morning I took the time because I think it was Highly critical that one, we identify exactly the assets for divestitures to support the economics and the expected proceeds we are going to get in.

Speaker 2

2, what we intend on doing with those proceeds in a very clear and transparent way. And then 3, once these assets are no longer with the our core business going forward, Important that we share with the investment community what is that current base business that we have Right now, with all the assets that we have right now in house, After these divestitures, what we outlined this morning and what you heard from Rajeev is what we now forecast Given now that we've have much more visibility and clarity, a 2% to 3% base business erosion, which is naturally inherited In our model, and we're benefiting from such a lower erosion than really most in our industry because We did diversify ex U. S. Outside the United States. As I mentioned, I think that could have been one of the Maybe sometimes misunderstood, we're viewed as a U.

Speaker 2

S. And specialty generics company, but we're actually not. We've Spent a considerable amount of time to derisk our model, not to have such emphasis in any one market or in fact any one country. So I think once you can see the base business, only then and the strength of that base business Only then when you begin to add that anything from that point forward can be truly additive. So if you take a look at the 1% that we see in the base business alone and then add the Oyster Point asset.

Speaker 2

On top of that, that's how you get to the 3% revenue CAGR from 24% to 28 And a 4% to 5% EBITDA growth from there.

Speaker 5

And Robert, just to further clarify, you talked about 2% to 3% base erosion, which is being more than offset by 450,000,000 to 550,000,000 launches to bring what Robert said the stable base and then overlay on that ophthalmology assets, which will bring it back from Flat 1% to 3% growth.

Speaker 2

And to answer your last point, because there was a lot in your question, Glenn, There is nothing. As a matter of fact, right now in the current models that we see as a hedge, we committed We are committing 50% return of capital to shareholders. But right now in our models, we have the other 50% simply accumulating in cash In our current models.

Speaker 5

We did not

Speaker 2

deploy that cash yet for two reasons. 1, we wanted to hedge for, you know, any anything that can come our way. And 2, we have not really identified at This juncture, the specific target that we're looking at other than directionally giving you the kind of assets that we're looking at. So I think that from everything that we see, it should be noted that we are also accumulating cash and our model at a rapid base to be deployed, which also really significantly brings our net leverage ratio down even that much

Operator

floor. Our next question comes from Greg Fraser, Truist Securities.

Speaker 13

Good morning, both. Thanks for taking the question. I want to follow-up on capital allocation. How should investors think about the mix Funding the dividend and share buybacks in 2024 and beyond given the 50% targeted for free cash flow allocation, I guess, is a material increase in the payout ratio likely? Thank you.

Speaker 2

I guess, I think the most important thing today, right now today, and to be very honest with you, I don't know what What 'twenty four? I'm not going to try to predict what 'twenty four would look like. I think the most important commitment today is the commitment of 50% of our free cash flows to return to shareholders. That is a that's our commitment, period. Now, if it were today, I have to tell you with our as I mentioned, I really think with our current PE multiple and where we are, it's Very difficult, very difficult to find a better investment than to buy our own shares back.

Speaker 2

I just have to be very honest with you. So I think we want to focus on total shareholder return, dividend combined with share buyback. But If it were today, I would probably strike much more on reinvesting in our own business through the purchase of our own shares because I I think what is going to quickly become the investment community is going to I think that this what Beatrice is going to become Viatrix. And especially the repurchase of our shares

Speaker 5

is going to go

Speaker 2

a long way, I think in that story.

Operator

Our Next question comes from Nathan Rich from Goldman Sachs.

Speaker 11

Good morning. Thanks for all the details today. I wanted to ask on free cash flow. I guess, how should we be thinking about the baseline for free cash flow? Kind of understanding you're not planning to give guidance, but Should we think about sort of the step down in EBITDA similar to what would happen to free cash flow?

Speaker 11

Or are there other factors to consider as we think about free cash flow in 2023 and beyond. And then just a couple of clarification questions. As we think about the target for EPS accretion next From the deals as well as share repurchases, any more detail on how much EBITDA dilution you're expecting from the acquisitions. And was the R and D expense step up of $300,000,000 was that inclusive of the 2 acquisitions as well? Thank you.

Speaker 2

So Sanjeet, before you answer that question, I think, Nathan, I think we gave you the starting point of at least $2,300,000,000 in what we see in 2020 as a starting point. But we absolutely see it

Speaker 7

grow from there. Sanjeet? Yes. So Nathan, so as Robert pointed out in the opening remarks, So you start from where we are this year, which is if you take the midpoint, we're about $2,700,000,000 There

Speaker 2

are 2 adjustments that we are making from there. 1 is the EBITDA loss that is

Speaker 7

from the That we're making from there. One is the EBITDA loss that is from the divested businesses and the R and D increase. So that both have an impact on cash flow. A high percentage of that goes into the cash flow. On the positive side, you would see our one time cash cost is coming down.

Speaker 7

And then there's going to be a reduction in the interest Of course, as we pay down significant amount of debt next year. So put all those things together, and you get our number, Which is close to what Robert talked about. Again, we're not giving the guidance. I think the important thing to think about this is, once that 2024 achieved, Our focus that we have you have seen in last 7 quarters in terms of continually growing the cash flow conversion in the company will continue and we continue to add As in the growth from cash optimization effort and then obviously focusing on our one time cash cost. Now 2023 It's going to be a little bit choppy, if I could use the term, in terms of the cash flow because of all the transactions that are going to be happening during the year.

Speaker 7

The Base cash flow is going to be very, very strong. But as I've pointed out, as we divest these assets, the taxes of these assets There are only proceeds and some of the one time cash costs get recorded in the free cash flow line. So we'll provide you all the transparency to you understand that the cash flow is very strong, but the outlook that I gave you for 2024 is a good starting point from that perspective.

Speaker 2

Yes, because I mean one thing, we are not able To be able to time exactly. So until we actually divest the assets That we've identified, we will continue to benefit in 2023 from the top line to EBITDA and even its cash flow. So Look, the beauty about this is that we don't have a gun to our head and there's no need to rush in because these assets are all what they are. They're contributors, but certainly not where we want to apply our focus. That's why we took the time to build you the bridge to Get right to 2024 with all the activities that are going to be going on in 2023.

Speaker 2

Steve, do you want to address that?

Speaker 7

Yes, the R and D questions, if they increased $300,000,000 that Conclude the investment from the 2 assets that we did, the R and D investment of those pipelines.

Operator

Our last question comes from David Amsellem from Piper Sandler.

Speaker 10

Thanks. So just going back to Tirveia, can you talk about the challenges differentiation that you cited, but I just wanted to get your thoughts on what you have to do to improve access. And then related to that, as you're thinking broadly about your acquisition strategy, Are you also willing to look at clinical stage assets in more rare diseases Where payer challenges ostensibly would not be How do you think about that and your overall strategy in terms of taking on significant R and D risk? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yes, great. This is Jeff now and thanks for that question. So I think with as it pertains to TIERBAI as we look at any launch Viatrix. The commercial opportunity is obviously the first opportunity that any company would face. We've been lucky enough that this year we're tracking about 19% of our scripts will go to Medicare Part D patients.

Speaker 3

As we turn the year into 2023, obviously, we expect those formularies to begin to adopt. And we're really excited about opportunities as we move into that year. We've had great coverage so far in the commercial side. As you talked, This is a really well differentiated product. Our goal in 2023 is adopt that additional coverage and really just drive demand into the year.

Speaker 3

Before Robert jumps in, one of the things that I will say on the ophthalmology pipeline is keeping in mind there are a number of products in there, especially on the gene therapy pipeline that are in that rare disease area. And so That has already begun, but I'll let Robert add to the story there.

Speaker 2

Well, I mean, I would just say that in terms of the R and D, David, I would guide you more towards the D and not the R. We will not be a company to be taking the type of binary risk that, say, Big Pharma takes. We're going to be very careful and selective. And we've also given you targets what we'll be looking for next in the GI side as well as dermatology from a pure emphasis because if you now look at our business model, we're crystal clear about being therapeutic agnostic. Our product portfolio with having products from birth to every stage of life Around the globe is very critical going forward in our portfolio.

Speaker 2

It's just that the cash flows that we generate off That portfolio is exactly what is going to be funding the very targeted opportunities that we highlighted that we've emphasized, you know, ophthalmology, GI and dermatology. So I think you can expect that directionally going forward. But yes,

Operator

question and answer session. I will now turn the call back over to Michael Greitler, CEO, to make a few closing remarks.

Speaker 9

Okay. So thank you, everybody, For the good questions. And look, as you've seen, this is an exciting point in our development. We're following up on everything we said in terms of returning the company to growth, having a capital allocation that has the ability to do both return capital to shareholders as well as invest in our business. And we're really excited to have Jeff and his team join us in Beatrice going forward.

Speaker 9

Thank you very much.

Operator

This does conclude today's Beatrice 2022 Third Quarter Earnings Call and Webcast. Please disconnect your line at this time and have a wonderful day.

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Earnings Conference Call
Viatris Q3 2022
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